Understanding the Present to Predict the Future - Omnitracs Industry Intelligence Report
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Omnitracs Industry Intelligence Report Understanding the Present to Predict the Future
Omnitracs Industry Intelligence Report
Contents
Introduction................................................................................................. 3
Long-Haul Transportation Activity ............................................................ 4
OT Long-Haul Miles Index ................................................................................................... 4
OT Long-Haul Miles vs. TSI Freight Index ........................................................................... 5
OT Long-Haul Miles vs. TSI Freight Index and GDP ............................................................ 6
COVID-19 Pandemic Effect on Converted Paper Product Manufacturing ........................... 7
COVID-19 Pandemic Effect on Sporting Goods .................................................................. 8
Miles Growth by State ......................................................................................................... 9
Manufacturing Miles and Manufacturing Sales Index ........................................................ 10
Retail Miles and Retail Sales Index .................................................................................... 11
Month-to-Month Percent Change of Major Sector Miles ................................................... 12
Miles Per Vehicle ................................................................................................................ 13
Percent of Drivers Who are Active ..................................................................................... 13
Last-Mile Transportation Activity ............................................................ 14
Last-Mile Stops Serviced ................................................................................................... 14
Last-Mile Equipment Capacity Utilization .......................................................................... 15
Last-Mile Manufacturing Stops vs. Manufacturing Sales Index ......................................... 16
Last-Mile Retail Stops vs. Retail Sales Index ..................................................................... 16
Last-Mile Wholesale Stops vs. Wholesale Sales Index ...................................................... 16
Last-Mile Grocery and Alcohol Stops Percent Change ...................................................... 17
Safety ........................................................................................................ 18
Speeding Events per 10k Miles ......................................................................................... 18
Top 10 Days of Speeding Events ....................................................................................... 19
Percent of Drivers Who Speed ........................................................................................... 19
Number of Blackspot Locations ........................................................................................ 20
Summary ................................................................................................... 21
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 2
Introduction
Database Growth
from 2016
84,781,874
64,897,006
The great scientist and astronomer, Carl Sagan, said, “You have to know
39,341,773
the past to understand the present.” If you think about it, at this moment,
we are living in the past – the future’s past. Which is why it’s important to
understand the past to predict the future.
As a leader in SaaS-based fleet management and data analytics solutions 126,074 794,006
– and a pioneer in transportation technology – Omnitracs processes 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
hundreds of millions of vehicle events per day across North America
alone. In 2020, this amounted to more than 100 billion long-haul miles and
The Omnitracs
half a billion last-mile stops across more than two dozen industry sectors.
database continues
But, having the data (lots of data!) doesn’t help Omnitracs, our customers,
to grow, even during a
or the industry if it simply sits in our data warehouse. Rather, with a team
of data scientists and analysts who have a deep understanding of the worldwide pandemic.
data, Omnitracs provides insights and understandings to help predict More fleets using more
future trends to help drive the transportation industry forward. tools in more vehicles.
Omnitracs North American Position Density
Map displays the calls
from just one of many
Omnitracs data sources
over a two-week period.
1.00 M or more
0.00 M or less
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 3
Long-Haul Transportation Activity
Overall, the long-haul transportation industry is alive and well.* While the key metrics for
long haul changed from month-to-month in 2020 due to seasonality and the effects of
COVID-19 (Figure 1), the demand to deliver goods and services are still there, as evidenced
by a 39% increase from 2019-Q4 to 2020-Q4. The Omnitracs Miles Index™ is the sum of
miles per customer by month divided by the base year.
Figure 1
Omnitracs Long-Haul Miles Index
U.S. Emergency Declaration
(3/13), statewide shutdown
begins, and HOS relaxed (3/14) Phased reopening Notable increase in
begins U.S. port activity
120
U.S. port activity starts
dropping sharply
90
Index
60
30
0
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2019 2020 2020
Even with COVID, the demand for goods and services increased nearly
40% from the end of 2019 to the end of 2020.
*Long-haul trucking is any form of trucking where drivers are expected to spend the night away from home, as the journey is too long to be made in a day.
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 4
Long-Haul Transportation Activity
Now let’s measure the Omnitracs Long-Haul Miles Index to the
Transportation Services Index (TSI), created by the U.S. Department of
Transportation (DOT), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), which
measures the movement of freight by the for-hire transportation sector
(Figure 2). The index, which is seasonally adjusted, yields a monthly
measure of transportation services output. Research shows that changes
in the Freight TSI occur before changes in the economy. With the TSI
being released quarterly, and data from Omnitracs more readily available,
our long-haul miles are a useful economic indicator.
Everyone is familiar with the dip in the economy that took place in late Q1-
2020. The data in Figure 2 reflects this dip, followed by a slow recovery. A
slight decline then followed when the second wave of COVID hit in June
through September and November. It’s no surprise that the transportation
industry has felt the impact of COVID, but we’ve seen some recovery –
with many smaller fleets being impacted to the point of shutting down,
while larger fleets have gained business and grown. Providing evidence
of growth is the uptick in Omnitracs data from September to October as
companies began to prepare for pre-holiday shipments.
Figure 2
2020 Omnitracs Long-Haul Miles Index vs. TSI Freight Index
120
90
Index
60
30
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
TSI Freight Index Omnitracs Miles Index
Omnitracs Miles Index closely parallels the TSI Freight Index
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 5
Long-Haul Transportation Activity
Transportation activity as an economic indicator is further evidenced when we overlay the
quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) values. GDP is a monetary measure of the market
value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific period. Because Omnitracs
reports miles monthly – in real-time – it is a precursor to the GDP and TSI Freight Index,
which reports data much later than when the data occurred. The Miles Index and GDP tend
to rise and fall at the same time, as evidenced in Figure 3. The magnitude of change varies
if the sectors driving GDP growth are not tied to transportation activities.
Figure 3
2020 Omnitracs Long-Haul Miles Index vs. TSI Freight Index and GDP
120 20,000
90 17,500
Index
GDP
60 15,000
30 12,500
0 10,000
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
TSI Freight Index Omnitracs Miles Index
Having this base of data, we can now explore the details behind the data and understand
its impact on sectors, fleets, and the general public. Using these keen insights, and
understanding where we’ve been, we can look ahead to 2021 and know where we are
going. While transportation remains a necessary part of today’s ecosystem, it’s important to
understand how fleets are balancing the dual, and often conflicting, purposes of increased
production and safety.
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 6
Long-Haul Transportation Activity
As consumers, we all remember the toilet paper shortage last spring. As a result, that
industry sector responded with an abnormal increase of miles driven in March, followed
by a significant dip when supplies ran out. Although not as fast as we would have all liked,
supplies finally returned to normal. As noted in Figure 4, the seasonality impact on converted
paper product manufacturing took place the remainder of the year where activity dropped
from October to December. With peak shipping occurring long before the peak shopping
season began, the sector dipped in November in anticipation of the holidays. We began to
see growth nearing the holidays when retail stores increased demand to box up deliveries
and gifts. Additionally, despite the pandemic – and looking for something to celebrate –
consumers stocked up on paper products for their traditional (and virtual) holiday parties.
Figure 4
2020 COVID-19 Pandemic Effect on Converted Paper Product Manufacturing
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
60
75
Index
90
91.2 88.3
92.8
95.6
97.3
99.5 99.2
105
101.0 102.4
103.0 103.0 104.4
109.1
113.0
120
The toilet paper shortage
made for a bumpy ride
during the early part of the
pandemic. End-of-year
holiday parties helped the
industry celebrate.
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 7
Long-Haul Transportation Activity
Consumers can be cooped up for only so long. With gyms, yoga studios, and health
facilities being shut down across the country, Americans took it upon themselves to stay
healthy. As a result, the sporting goods sector took a nosedive in April and then immediately
recorded a tremendous resurgence in May. From Pelotons to ellipticals to driveway hoops,
we looked for new ways to stay active. Of course, whatever goes up, must come down.
And it’s no different here, as the sector plummeted after initial demand went away and the
supply chain was squeezed.
Figure 5
COVID-19 Pandemic Effect on the Sporting Goods Sector
300%
271.9%
Always looking to stay active,
consumers pushed the sporting
200%
goods sector to new heights.
Percent Change (Miles)
100%
13.4% 11.0% 8.7% 5.5% 6.5%
1.9% 0%
0%
-10.8% -2.8% -1.1%
-100%
-71.6%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 8
Long-Haul Transportation Activity
The regionality of where miles were driven as the country moved away from lockdowns and
the supply chain became more manageable is clearly shown in Figure 6. There was very
little movement in May – the USA-Canadian border closing and reduced port activity could
have contributed to these factors – but activity quickly picked up in June and continued
throughout the summer.
Figure 6
Miles Growth by State April to August 2020
May June
July August
Miles driven across the country varied by state based upon retail, wholesale, and
manufacturing demands with some states growing faster than others.
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 9
Long-Haul Transportation Activity
Production and manufacturing create demand for transportation
services, which is why miles driven in the manufacturing sector tend
to follow the Manufacturing Sales Index (Figure 7). After a reduction
in manufacturing in April and May, this sector experienced peek
growth in October – likely due to unexpected demand for certain
product groups, such as paper products and sporting goods. As
with many federal statistical reports, this data is released quarterly,
whereas Omnitracs data is available in real-time, allowing us to
predict what will happen in the future. This predictability helps fleets
plan their business and hiring cycles so they can anticipate demand
and respond accordingly.
Figure 7
Manufacturing Miles and Manufacturing Sales Index
600,000
450,000
300,000
150,000
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Manufacturing Miles Manufacturing Sales Index
The Manufacturing Index very closely marries the Manufacturing Miles driven. But since
the Omnitracs data is available in real-time, whereas government data is released much
later, is the dip in November miles a precursor to November sales?
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 10Long-Haul Transportation Activity
There is a strong correlation in the relationship between miles driven in the retail sector
and the reported Retail Sales Index. As we all know – and as shown in Figure 8 – the retail
sector ground to a halt in April. It quickly rebounded as consumers got used to ordering
online, no-contact pick up, and realizing they didn’t need to live without their favorite things.
Figure 8
Retail Miles and Retail Sales Index
600,000
450,000
300,000
150,000
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Retail Miles Retail Sales Index
Retail miles and retail sales correlate very closely month-to-month.
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 11Long-Haul Transportation Activity
Combining these sectors (manufacturing, retail, and wholesale), with
the transportation and warehousing sector allows us to clearly see the
differences in how each sector responded to the pandemic by percentage
change from the previous month (Figure 9). The colorful differences are
eye-opening:
• Transportation had substantial growth in Q1
• Retail had the greatest amount of swing from month to month (January
through June)
• Retail displayed a more immediate recovery from the imposed lockdowns
with a large spike in growth in May
Figure 9
Month-to-Month Percent Change of Major Sector Miles
30%
20%
10%
Percent Change
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Manufacturing Retail Transportation and Warehousing
The pandemic has impacted every industry – some have recovered quickly, while others
continue to struggle.
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 12Long-Haul Transportation Activity
Although the number of miles increased (Figure 10), it’s encouraging to see that fleets
performed their miles with increased production efficiency – more miles per vehicle. In
fact, Omnitracs saw a 6% increase in miles per vehicle from Q4-2019 to Q1-2020.
Figure 10
Miles per Vehicle
JAN 6200 8
FEB 7040 3
MAR 7591 8
APR 6911 5
MAY 7093 7
JUN 7574 7
JUL 7639 9
AUG 7604 8
SEP 7604 1
OCT 7752 1
NOV 7097 8
DEC 7207 9
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Miles per Vehicle
The disruptions in 2020 also led to some uneven demand, leading to fluctuations in
driver utilization across all industries. While there was a downward trend in the first third
of 2020 (Figure 11), the number of drivers saw an uptick in overall miles driven with
peak utilization in September — yet still down from January 2020.
Figure 11
Percent of Drivers Who Are Active
85%
81.8%
80%
78.3% 78.0% 78.1%
77.4% 77.6%
76.8% 77.0% 76.6%
76.5%
75.9% 75.7%
75%
70%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 13Last-Mile Transportation Activity
Last-mile fleets – those that move goods from a transportation hub to the final delivery
destination – continued to meet the demand of growth in e-commerce by servicing more
stops. In fact, 21% more stops were serviced in 2020, compared to 2019, with growth on
an upward trajectory after the April pandemic dip (Figure 12).
Figure 12
Last-Mile Stops Serviced 2019 vs. 2020
120
100
Stops Index
80
60
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2019 2020
E-commerce fueled continued growth in last-mile delivery.
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 14Last-Mile Transportation Activity
Throughout the pandemic, fleets quickly learned to increase operational efficiencies to meet
productivity objectives. For last-mile fleets, specifically, Omnitracs measured equipment
capacity utilization – a measure of how full a fleet’s equipment is to service a group of
stops. An increase in capacity utilization indicates positive operational efficiency. As shown
in Figure 13, this trend for last-mile fleets continues year-over-year.
Figure 13
Last-Mile Equipment Capacity Utilization 2018 through 2020
35
30
25
Capacity Utilization
20
15
10
5
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2018 2019 2020
After a brief dip, equipment capacity utilization skyrocketed and continued to climb
throughout the year.
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 15Last-Mile Transportation Activity
All three of the major sectors serviced in 2020 (manufacturing, retail, and wholesale)
have a strong correlation with their associated sales index. Nearly mirroring each other,
deliveries from last-mile customers are more closely tied to industry sales than long-
haul customers’ miles (Figures 14-16).
Figure 14
Last-Mile Manufacturing Stops vs. Manufacturing Sales Index
125
100
75
50
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Manufacturing Sales Index Manufacturing Stops Index
Figure 15 Omnitracs stop
Last-Mile Retail Stops vs. Retail Sales Index data compares
125 very closely to the
corresponding
100
industry’s sales
index. This is a
75
good representation
50
of activity in these
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
industries with
Retail Sales Index Retail Stops Index
stops being a strong
predictor of sales.
Figure 16
Last-Mile Wholesale Stops vs. Wholesale Sales Index
125
100
75
50
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Wholesale Sales Index Wholesale Stops Index
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 16Last-Mile Transportation Activity
In the long-haul market, we explored miles associated with the toilet paper and sporting
goods sectors. Both saw huge spikes as a result of consumer needs during the pandemic.
In retail, we take a deep dive into the differences in supplying groceries vs. alcohol. The
variances are astounding! The notion that many Americans spent more on alcohol during
the pandemic is supported with this data (Figure 17).
Using 2019 stop data as a baseline, both grocery and alcohol deliveries declined in April
and May, but alcohol declined less. As lockdowns increased, and people realized they
would be home longer, the market experienced a massive amount of alcohol delivery growth
from June through September. In October, many cities imposed less restrictive bar and
restaurant closings, impacting the market accordingly.
Figure 17
Last-Mile Grocery and Alcohol Stops Percent Change from 2019
80%
72%
60%
48%
40%
Percent Change
32%
27% 28%
23%
20% 17%
8% 9%
6% 6%
3% 1%
0%
-1%
-4%
-9%
-12% -14%
-20% -15% -17%
-20% -18%
-16%
-32%
-40%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Grocery Alcohol
Alcohol distribution soared as grocery distribution declined as a result of the pandemic.
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 17Safety
The pandemic not only impacted the way people worked, shopped, and played, but
also how they got from one destination to another. In many instances, people stopped
traveling and our highways became speedways. Taking advantage of the open roads,
people (including truck drivers) began to speed, leading to more collisions. SmartDrive
data indicates that the average driving speed increased 7% from 2019 (33.6mph) to
2020 (35.8mph), with April and May 2020 recording the highest average driving speed
to date (37.3mph) (Figure 18). Although the overall speeding event rate did not change
over the course of 2020, speeding event rates varied throughout the year – depending
on traffic on the roads. When the roads are open, however, the speeding event rate
increases.
Figure 18
Speeding Events per 10k Miles
MAR 13.0
APR 14.9
MAY 16.1
An open road
JUN 16.7
became an invitation
JUL 16.7
to speed with April
AUG 15.4
and May recording
SEP 14.4
the highest average
14.6
OCT
driving speed to
14.8
NOV
date.
DEC 15.6
10 12 14 16 18
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 18Safety
Although speeding increased, in general, it was more apparent on holidays. In fact, the
top five speeding event rates in the past two years occurred on holidays (Figure 19).
These are days when, historically, there are less vehicles on the road – inviting drivers to
get to their destination as quickly as possible.
Figure 19
Top 10 Days of Speeding Events
12/25/2020 28.9
11/26/2020 26.8
11/28/2019 24.9
5/31/2020 24.9
12/25/2019 24.8 Unfortunately,
3/28/2020 24.7 holidays are an
6/20/2020 24.4 open invitation to
12/13/2020 23.6 speed.
6/13/2020 23.5
5/23/2020 23.5
20 22 24 26 28 30
Fleets continue to prioritize safety. We’re happy to report that, although speeding
increased with less vehicles on the road, the number of individual drivers who
exceeded the speed limit (as defined by their fleet) decreased (Figure 20). Unfortunately,
the more speeding drivers do – without getting caught or being involved in an accident
– the longer they’ll continue doing it.
Figure 20
Percent of Drivers Speeding
4
3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%
3
3.0% 3.0%
2.8%
Although speeding
2.7%
2.5%
2.4% increased, the
2
actual number of
drivers speeding
decreased.
1
0
MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 19Safety
While prioritizing safety in the cab, fleets are also prioritizing safety to the cab. As previously
noted, the percentage of drivers who exceeded their fleet’s speed improved, as did the
number of Black Spot locations identified by Omnitracs Critical Event Recorders (Figure
21). Black Spots are locations where incidents occur at an abnormally high rate. Populated
across the map, these locations continually change and are evaluated daily. As such,
Black Spots can be communicated to drivers in the cab as they plan or approach these
dangerous locations, further decreasing the likelihood of an incident, improving overall
safety, and reducing fleet risk mitigation.
2,500 Figure 21
Number of Black Spot Locations
2,000
1,500
Count
1,000
500
0
9/21/20 9/28/20 10/5/20 10/12/20 10/19/20 10/26/20 11/2/20 11/9/20 11/16/20 11/23/20 11/30/20 12/7/20 12/14/20 12/21/20 12/28/20
Excessive Overspeed Hard Brake
With fewer drivers on the road, the number of Black Spot locations has decreased.
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 20Summary
We began with Sagan’s quote, “You have to know the past to understand the present.”
Although this report focused on 2020 – and the ramifications of a once-in-a-generation
pandemic – the data in the report is a precursor to what is occurring in 2021…and beyond.
Fleets are changing the way they do business, drivers are adapting to new routines, and
businesses are transforming their interactions with drivers and vendors. Although many
businesses suffered in 2020 due to the pandemic, many fleets flourished – particularly those
with a strong foundational base, a strategic vision, and a program that helped attract and
retain drivers. Change is happening quickly, and it’s the agile businesses that will survive by
focusing on:
• Being nimble and having access to real-time business KPIs, analytics, and industry trend data
to adapt.
• Diversifying across all areas of the business, e.g., domestic and imported products, a variety
of customer industry segments/load types, etc.
• Being part of the e-commerce trend, especially given the pandemic-related acceleration.
• Vehicle maintenance needs due to higher vehicle usage.
Last but not least, tune into analytics so you can stay flexible and align your business with
industry trends, economic upticks and downturns, and business needs. Timely data is key
to understanding the business landscape, and adapting to change is critical.
Trends from government data can be helpful, but having real-time data by state, region,
industry, and sector can help fleets plan for their individual business growth. With one of
the largest continually updated transportation databases available in real-time, through a
converged solution, Omnitracs helps fleets survive – and flourish.
This report is just the first in a series of data releases that will be issued throughout the
years ahead. Look for future releases to ensure you have the most comprehensive metrics
to help you plan your business goals and ensure future success.
©2021 Omnitracs, LLC. All rights reserved. | 21About Omnitracs Omnitracs offers the only complete fleet intelligence software platform. Serving the largest for-hire and private fleets in the transportation and distribution industries, Omnitracs’ best-in-class solutions accelerate business success, improve efficiency, and enhance the driver experience for nearly 15,000 customers who collectively travel 250 million miles per week. Omnitracs pioneered digital transformation in trucking more than 30 years ago, and today offers a one-stop shop for enterprise-grade, data-driven solutions across compliance, telematics, workflow, routing, and video safety. Headquartered in Dallas, Omnitracs serves customers in over 50 countries and employs more than 2,000 people worldwide. Find out more at omnitracs.com
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