A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia - THE CASE FOR IMPROVED ECONOMICS AND SUSTAINABILITY

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A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia - THE CASE FOR IMPROVED ECONOMICS AND SUSTAINABILITY
A Strategic Approach
to Sustainable Shrimp
Production in Indonesia
THE CASE FOR IMPROVED ECONOMICS AND
SUSTAINABILITY
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A STRATEGIC APPROACH
TO SUSTAINABLE SHRIMP
PRODUCTION IN INDONESIA
THE CASE FOR IMPROVED ECONOMICS AND SUSTAINABILITY

                 HOLGER RUBEL

                 WENDY WOODS

                 DAVID PÉREZ

                 SHALINI UNNIKRISHNAN

                 ALEXANDER MEYER ZUM FELDE

                 SOPHIE ZIELCKE

                 CHARLOTTE LIDY

                 CAROLIN LANFER

November 2019 | Boston Consulting Group
CONTENTS

                 4    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

                 7    MARKET FORCES ARE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SHRIMP
                      INDUSTRY

                 9    INDONESIA’S SHRIMP INDUSTRY IS VULNERABLE
                      TO GROWING THREATS
                      Demand for Indonesian Shrimp Is Rising at Home and Abroad
                      Extreme Weather and Diseases Threaten Indonesia’s Shrimp
                         Industry
                      Indonesia’s Geography Presents Barriers to Profitability
                      Indonesia’s Value Chain Is Complex

                14    INDONESIA: THE CASE FOR CHANGE
                      Low-Price Competitors
                      Market Demand and Traceability Regulations
                      High Risk of Disease and Environmental Threats

                21    INDONESIA’S PRODUCERS CAN CREATE IMMEDIATE
                      ECONOMIC VALUE
                      Feed Mills: Increase Profit Margins and Diversify the Portfolio with
                         Functional Feed
                      Hatcheries: Ensure the Quality of Post-Larvae Shrimp Through
                         Selective Breeding
                      Farmers: Immediate Change Can Increase Profits, but Broader
                         Changes Will Be Required
                      Middlemen: Increase the Pace of Change Through Education,
                         Finance, and Traceability
                      Processors: Important Drivers for Change as the Industry Moves
                         Toward Sustainability
                      Immediate Change Is Limited—Disruptive Transformation Is
                         Needed

                31    INTEGRATED PLAYERS MUST SUPPORT THE SHIFT
                      TO TRACEABILITY

                32    WITH TRACEABILITY, PRODUCERS CAN MEET EXPORT
                      STANDARDS
                      The Far-Reaching Business Benefits of Traceability
                      Traceability Can Be Managed with Different Levels of Effectiveness
                         and Maturity
                      Technology-Enabled Traceability Offers a Promising Path Forward

2 | A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia
36   INDOOR FARMS WILL TRANSFORM INDONESIA’S SHRIMP
     INDUSTRY

39   THE SHRIMP INDUSTRY MUST TRANSFORM
     WHILE TIMES ARE STILL GOOD

40   APPENDIX
     Functional Feed, Water Improvement Systems, and Solar Energy
       • Details on Functional Feed
       • Details on Water Improvement Systems—Biofloc and RAS
       • Details on Solar Energy
     Market Dynamics and the Environmental Impact of Immediate
       Change
       •   Feed Mills
       •   Hatcheries
       •   Farmers
       •   Middlemen
       •   Processors and Exporters

60   NOTE TO THE READER

                                                      Boston Consulting Group | 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

               I ndonesia has established itself as one of the world’s top
                 shrimp producers, but low-price competitors, tightening regulations,
               and environmental risks are threatening its strong position. As
               outbreaks of disease were slowing production in Thailand and
               Vietnam over the past two decades, Indonesia strengthened its
               position to become the third-largest shrimp producer globally. The
               country’s farmed-shrimp industry is expected to grow 8% per year
               through 2022, surpassing global growth rates of 5.6%.

               Indonesia has a strong competitive position, with high national
               and international demand and an optimistic overall market fore-
               cast, but three developments are threatening the industry’s prof-
               itability.

               ••   Global Competition. India has flooded the market with low-price
                    shrimp, ramping up the competition, stealing market share, and
                    squeezing profit margins.

               ••   Strict Traceability Standards. In 2018, the US Congress extended
                    coverage of the Seafood Import Monitoring Program to cover
                    shrimp, requiring stricter reporting and record keeping for shrimp
                    imports. Given that the US is a major importer of Indonesian
                    shrimp, there’s pressure for Indonesia to provide traceability
                    across its supply chain.

               ••   Natural Disasters. Tsunamis, floods, and diseases continue to
                    affect shrimp production and disrupt the shrimp supply chain. In
                    2018, for example, a tsunami that hit Banten province lowered
                    national shrimp production by approximately 10% over a three- to
                    four-month period. Decades of mangrove deforestation make
                    Indonesia increasingly vulnerable to these natural disasters.

               Indonesian shrimp producers can benefit from immediate im-
               provements, but there is a much bigger opportunity at hand.

4 | A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia
••   To increase profitability and resource efficiency, the Indonesian
     shrimp industry can make immediate changes in three areas: feed,
     water treatment, and renewable energy.

••   However, immediate changes should be viewed as only the first
     step toward a much more transformative approach to shrimp
     farming.

To maintain its position as a leading exporter of shrimp to the
US, Indonesia needs to offer fully traceable products.

••   Regulators and retailers, pushed by consumer demands and
     reputational concerns, are becoming increasingly concerned about
     food safety and sustainability.

••   With its high dependence on middlemen, Indonesian shrimp
     producers are not well positioned to fulfill major importers’ ever
     stricter traceability requirements.

••   By offering a fully traceable product, Indonesia can respond to
     changing consumer demands, stay ahead of tightening US import
     standards, and establish a leading position in both the mass
     market and the sustainable shrimp market.

••   While Indonesia has strong domestic demand for shrimp and is,
     therefore, less dependent on import regulations, traceability
     will eventually become the new norm in global shrimp supply
     chains.

••   While a few large players in Indonesia are beginning to focus on
     certification, sustainability, and traceability, there’s still much work
     to be done.

To protect farms against outbreaks of disease and environmental
risks, a shift to closed-loop—and, ultimately, indoor—systems can
be a game changer.

••   Closed-loop systems, such as recirculating aquaculture systems,
     represent a significant opportunity to increase efficiency and
     output on L. vannamei farms while reducing the risk of disease
     and pressure on the environment.

••   Indonesia has already begun to establish closed-loop farm-
     ing methods through its “supra intensif Indonesia” farming
     system. While closed-loop farming systems will likely become
     more common, the ponds are mostly outdoors and, therefore,
     still vulnerable to disease, contamination, and environmental
     hazards.

••   To protect shrimp ponds from environmental hazards, stabilize wa-
     ter quality, and reduce disease risk, companies can shift to fully
     closed indoor systems. This production method allows farm
     operators to increase stocking densities and offer a fully traceable
     product with low environmental impact.

                                                               Boston Consulting Group | 5
••   As major importers continue to institute stricter regulations on
                    seafood imports, the demand for sustainable shrimp will only
                    grow. By shifting to closed-loop—or even indoor—farming,
                    Indonesian shrimp producers can meet this demand and position
                    themselves at the forefront of this movement.

               Fast-moving competitors are threatening to overtake Indonesia
               in the mass market, and major importers are demanding trace-
               ability. To maintain a strong position and strengthen ties with the
               US market, Indonesian shrimp producers must make a rapid
               transition to traceability and sustainability.

6 | A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia
MARKET FORCES ARE
          RESHAPING THE GLOBAL
               SHRIMP INDUSTRY

F   armed shrimp is among the fastest-
    growing food products in the world. In
less than two decades, global production has
                                                   become the second-largest shrimp producer
                                                   worldwide after China—accounting for 14%
                                                   of global shrimp production with 600,000
more than tripled from about 1.2 million tons      tons produced annually. Indonesia was also
in 2000 to some 4.2 million tons in 2017. As       able to strengthen its already competitive po-
the global population and consumer afflu-          sition in the global shrimp market, overtaking
ence grow, farm-raised shrimp is becoming an       Thailand and Vietnam, to claim third place.
increasingly important source of protein
around the world. In the US alone, the             In 2018, the global shrimp market experi-
average annual consumption of shrimp has           enced a price drop that was the result of high
risen to four pounds per capita.                   inventory levels in import nations such as the
                                                   US, further squeezing profit margins and giv-
In 2017, the global market for shrimp, includ-     ing low-cost players an advantage.
ing farm-raised and wild-caught shrimp, was
valued at around $40 billion. The dominant         Indonesian producers must find new ways to
species of farmed shrimp, Litopenaeus              stay ahead of fast-moving, low-price competi-
vannamei (L. vannamei), or whiteleg shrimp,        tors while coping with demand dynamics.
accounts for about $14 billion. Shrimp pro-
duction worldwide is expected to grow by           The global trend toward environmentally sus-
more than 5.6% annually, with the greatest         tainable and socially responsible food pro-
demand coming from China and the US.               duction has raised questions about food safe-
                                                   ty and sustainability within the shrimp
The overall industry is growing at a record        industry. Retailers, regulators, and consumers
pace, but not all shrimp producers are thriving.   have become much more attuned to the neg-
                                                   ative environmental and social impact of as-
In the early years of this century, China, Thai-   pects of unregulated shrimp production, in-
land, and Vietnam were leaders in the shrimp       cluding the use of banned chemicals,
farming sector—with Indonesia in fourth            environmental degradation, and human and
place. But the competitive landscape has           labor rights violations.
shifted. Outbreaks of disease and rising labor
costs have threatened this once-thriving in-       In a world with 24-hour access to social me-
dustry, and India, which has dramatically in-      dia, ongoing consumer awareness campaigns,
creased its share in the global shrimp market      new regulations in importing countries, and
by producing large volumes at low prices, has      accelerated dissemination of information

                                                                                    Boston Consulting Group | 7
worldwide, retailers face intense pressure to     too, are increasing their monitoring of shrimp
               protect their brands from the damage that re-     imports for drug and chemical residuals and
               sults from product recalls, scandals, and sup-    are threatening to ban imports. Any company
               ply chains that are disrupted by new import       charged with regulatory violations would risk
               controls.                                         suffering serious economic losses and reputa-
                                                                 tional damage.
               As more attention is focused on these issues,
               retailers, regulators, and, in some cases, con-   As the demand for sustainability grows, there
               sumers are demanding sustainably produced,        is increasing urgency for a paradigm shift to-
               traceable products in nearly all food catego-     ward truly responsible production and sourc-
               ries. From 2012 through 2017, the sustainable     ing. Retailers’ pledges of sustainability and
               seafood segment in major European markets         niche consumers’ increasing willingness to
               grew by about 12% while market demand for         purchase sustainable products represent for-
               other seafood segments declined. Similar          ward movement. However, the definition of
               trends have been observed in the US, though       “sustainability” is not consistently precise.
               on a smaller scale, and the growth of sustain-    There are many different ways to define sus-
               able products in China has been driven main-      tainability, and retailers and consumers may
               ly by food safety scandals and government         unknowingly purchase products that fall
               targets. Overall, there is growing demand for     short in fundamental areas, such as environ-
               responsibly produced shrimp, and a niche          mental stewardship and social responsibility.
               consumer segment is willing to pay a premi-
               um for it.                                        To foster real change, it is important to estab-
                                                                 lish a clear definition of what it means for
               A 2015 survey of approximately 3,000 con-         food to be labeled sustainable. To put it sim-
               sumers worldwide found that 68% wanted to         ply, sustainable products should be produced
               know where their food was coming from and         today in ways that do not compromise the
               how it was being produced. While statistics       ability to produce those same products to-
               show that this consumer-driven pressure is        morrow. Products should minimize environ-
               currently less urgent in the US and China,        mental degradation and the use of natural re-
               these countries have introduced stricter im-      sources and should be traceable across the
               port regulations and government targets.          supply chain to provide greater transparency
                                                                 and accountability. For sustainability to have
               Nearly all major retail chains, supermarkets,     maximum impact, it is important for all
               and convenience stores around the world           stakeholders to understand and adhere to
               have pledged to increase their share of sus-      these fundamental principles.
               tainably produced food, including shrimp and
               other seafood categories, and, as a form of le-   To defend its current strong competitive posi-
               gal risk insurance, an increasing number of       tion, Indonesia needs to embrace sustainability.
               major retailers are requiring suppliers to sign   As changes are implemented across the supply
               contracts and carry out in-depth due dili-        chain, it will be imperative to align on the defi-
               gence to ensure traceability and adherence to     nition of sustainability and establish mecha-
               ecofriendly production methods. Regulators,       nisms that will hold all actors accountable.

8 | A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia
INDONESIA’S SHRIMP
    INDUSTRY IS VULNERABLE
       TO GROWING THREATS

I ndonesia, which was able to strengthen
  its global competitive position owing to
outbreaks of diseases and production issues
                                                 Fisheries contribute about 2% to Indonesia’s
                                                 GDP, and farmed shrimp has a production
                                                 value of about $4 billion, which represents
in Thailand and Vietnam in the early years of    about 15% of the fisheries sector. Aquaculture
this decade, is currently the third-largest      in Indonesia, including processing and ex-
shrimp producer in the world, with a global      ports, employs around 8.7 million people,
market share of 12%. The country produces        which is about 7% of the total workforce. Of
between 450,000 to 500,000 tons of shrimp.1      this 8.7 million, approximately 1 million in-
(See Exhibit 1.)                                 dividuals are directly affected by shrimp
                                                 farming.2

Demand for Indonesian Shrimp Is                  It’s difficult to estimate the total number of
Rising at Home and Abroad                        shrimp farms in Indonesia since many do not
Indonesia exports 220,000 to 260,000 tons of     operate on a commercial scale. Still, it is as-
shrimp: about 60% to the US, 19% to Japan, and   sumed that some 80,000 to 95,000 farms pro-
5% to the EU. Indonesia is the second-largest    duce shrimp. Approximately 80% of farms
shrimp exporter to the US, just behind India.    produce shrimp extensively, focusing P.
L. vannamei shrimp accounts for 70% to 8o% of    monodon production. However, these exten-
export share, while Penaeus monodon, or P.       sive farms contribute to only about 10% of
monodon (black tiger shrimp), which is pri-      the production output volume. (See the side-
marily exported to Japan, accounts for 20% to    bar “Once the Main Species, P. Monodon Is
30%. (See Exhibit 2.) Relative to other Asian    Losing Importance.”)
countries, domestic demand in Indonesia is
high—around 40% of total production.
                                                 Extreme Weather and Diseases
This high domestic demand gives Indonesia a      Threaten Indonesia’s Shrimp
competitive advantage as the domestic market     Industry
is less affected by external factors, such as    Indonesia’s unique environment and location
stricter import regulations or retailers’ de-    can impede shrimp farming. During the dry
mands for traceability and sustainability.       season, increased salt content in the water
Still, a strong domestic focus that makes        lengthens breeding periods for shrimp, and
them less dependent on global export markets     the rainy season can contribute to increased
may mean that companies will be less likely to   acidity in ponds, lower water temperatures,
shift toward traceability and sustainability.    and flooding.

                                                                                   Boston Consulting Group | 9
Exhibit 1 | With a 12% Market Share, Indonesia Is the World’s Third-Largest Shrimp Producer

                                           Global aquaculture production of shrimp, 2017
  Market share (%)

      29                China                                       1,200
      14                 India                                                       600
      12             Indonesia                                                                      490
      11              Ecuador                                                                                     480
      11              Vietnam                                                                                                    450
       8             Thailand                                                                                                           327
       3               Mexico                                                                                                               128
       2        Bangladesh                                                                                                                    80
       2         Philippines                                                                                                                    62
       1             Myanmar                                                                                                                      54
       1                Brazil                                                                                                                     52
       1             Malaysia                                                                                                                        43
       5                Other                                                                                                                             209
                         Total                                                                                                                             4,175

                                 0                     1,000                         2,000                         3,000                        4,000

                                                                                                                                 Production volume (kilotons)

                                     Official figures, reviewed and adjusted in response to overestimations by official authorities

 Sources: Cámara Nacional de Acuacultura; Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), FishStat Plus (2016); Thailand
 Department of Fisheries; Imarc Research; BCG analysis.
 Note: The figure for India is for fiscal year 2017–2018.

                         Extreme weather conditions can also affect                                  In 2012, Indonesia suffered less from the ear-
                         hatcheries and farms. In 2018, for example, a                               ly mortality syndrome (EMS) disease out-
                         tsunami that hit Banten province damaged                                    break than other Asian countries. This was
                         28 hatcheries and many shrimp farms in Lam-                                 partly because of the physical distance be-
                         pung, and national production was reduced                                   tween islands, which makes it more difficult
                         by up to 10% over a three- to four-month peri-                              for viruses to spread, and partly because the
                         od. The tsunami also disrupted operations                                   government had taken action to prevent the
                         across the value chain, and the feed industry                               spread of disease. During the EMS outbreak,
                         suffered drops in demand of as much as 6,000                                for example, the country banned the import
                         tons per month over the same period.                                        of foreign post-larvae shrimp (PL).

                         During the late 1980s and 1990s, Indonesia was                              Nevertheless, the country is still threatened
                         heavily affected by various disease outbreaks,                              by outbreaks of diseases. In 2016, disease out-
                         such as white spot disease, yellowhead disease,                             breaks reduced shrimp production by as much
                         and monodon-type baculovirus. These out-                                    as 100,000 tons—about 20% of current overall
                         breaks of diseases reduced shrimp production                                production. However, this decline in produc-
                         by about 50,000 tons—about one-third of the                                 tion could partly be offset with intensification
                         production volume during that time.                                         efforts and growth in other regions.

10 | A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia
Exhibit 2 | Indonesia’s Shrimp Exports Go Mainly to the US and Japan

                                                                    EU
                                                                    2%                                             Japan
                          US                                        4%                                              10%
                          80%                                                                                       32%
                          47%

                                                                                                                              Other
                                                                                                                            countries
                                                                                                                                8%
                                                                                                                               17%

  L. vannamei = 70%–80% of total exports, or 170 kilotons to 190 kilotons
  P. monodon = 20%–30% of total exports, or 50 kilotons to 70 kilotons

  Sources: BKIPM; Ipsos; Statistics Indonesia; BCG analysis.
  Note: L. vannamei = Litopenaeus vannamei; P. monodon = Penaeus monodon. Export volume in 2017 in the nonfishery category was about 240
  kilotons. The data on export distribution is from 2018.

Indonesia’s Geography Presents                                 er Asian countries—double, for example, the
Barriers to Profitability                                      energy costs of Vietnamese farmers.
Indonesia’s farms, spread widely over its is-
lands, face two challenges that make it diffi-
cult to be highly profitable: dependence on                    Indonesia’s Value Chain Is Complex
middlemen and energy generation that is un-                    Indonesia’s farmed-shrimp supply chain com-
reliable due to unstable grid connections.                     prises several interrelated steps: feed mills,
                                                               hatcheries, farmers, middlemen, processors, ex-
Middlemen connect farmers with feed mills,                     porters, and retailers. (See Exhibit 3.)
hatcheries, and processors. Each middleman
takes 1.4% to 5% of farmers’ profits. In some                  This report focuses on the first five steps:
regions, middlemen have extraordinary control
over farmers either because the farmers are in                 ••   Feed Mills. Six players dominate the
debt or because of strong family ties, such as                      Indonesian feed market with 78% of the
the relationships in East Kalimantan with Bugi-                     market. The two most dominant players
nese middlemen, the so-called Punggawa.                             are Central Proteina Prima (CP Prima)
                                                                    and CJ Aquaculture & Fishery (CJ).
The lack of a stable energy supply poses diffi-
culties for Indonesian shrimp farmers located                  ••   Hatcheries. CP Prima controls 40% to
on remote islands. In these regions, shrimp                         50% of the market in hatcheries, while the
farmers rely on diesel generators at specific                       rest of the market is highly fragmented.
times to secure power for crucial equipment,
such as aerators. Energy accounts for 15%—                     ••   Farmers. The overall market is fragment-
that is 9% for diesel energy and 6% for grid                        ed, with many family businesses. CP
energy—of Indonesian farmers’ costs. After                          Prima and Japfa have high market
feed, energy is the second-most expensive                           share—about 20% to 25% and 10% to 15%,
cost driver for Indonesia’s farmers. Their en-                      respectively—in this segment, but they
ergy costs are significantly higher than in oth-                    also rely on middlemen.

                                                                                                         Boston Consulting Group | 11
ONCE THE MAIN SPECIES, P. MONODON IS LOSING
                   IMPORTANCE
                   Two main shrimp species are produced in                   margins at the farm level, compared with
                   Indonesia: L. vannamei (whiteleg shrimp)                  16% for L. vannamei.
                   and P. monodon (black tiger shrimp). P.
                   monodon is native to Indonesia. L. vanna-                 Because P. monodon can be produced only
                   mei was introduced in 2001 after outbreaks                extensively, annual profits at the farm level
                   of diseases, such as white spot disease, in               are substantially lower than those of L.
                   the 1990s severely hit production of P.                   vannamei. (See the exhibit below.) P.
                   monodon. Furthermore, L. vannamei is                      monodon yields around $1,700 in profits
                   better suited to intensive farming and can,               per hectare, compared with as much as
                   therefore, be produced with higher yields                 $17,400 per hectare for L. vannamei.3 In
                   per hectare.                                              addition, the extensive production method
                                                                             requires large amounts of land, exacerbat-
                   With the introduction of L. vannamei in                   ing land use challenges and, in some cases,
                   Indonesia, market share of P. monodon                     mangrove deforestation.
                   declined quickly, and that share is now
                   down to some 30%.1 Production of P.                       Notes
                   monodon is expected to remain largely                     1. Based on overall production volume in Indonesia.
                   stable, growing by 2% per year. In con-                   2. Based on overall production volume in Indonesia.
                   trast, L. vannamei farming, which makes                   3. Based on a productivity of 400 kilograms per
                                                                             hectare per cycle and 2.5 cycles per year versus
                   up some 70% of Indonesia’s total pro-                     10,000 kilograms per hectare per cycle and 3 cycles
                   duction, is expected to grow by 10%                       per year, respectively.
                   annually.2

                   Larger companies, such as the Japanese
                   processor and exporter Alter Trade Indone-
                   sia, specialize in producing extensive P.
                   monodon in Indonesia for exports. P.
                   monodon are larger in size and therefore
                   sell at prices that yield up to 33% EBIT

                     P. Monodon Cannot Be Intensified Beyond 60 PL per Square Meter

                     Stocking density                                                                        Superintensive
                                               Extensive         Semi-intensive          Intensive
                     per square meter                                                                       or supraintensive

                     P. monodon                    2 PL             5 to 20 PL          20 to 60 PL                  NA

                     L. vannamei               4 to 10 PL          10 to 30 PL         60 to 300 PL           300 to 750 PL

                     Disclaimer
                     Stocking densities depend on country specifics as well as farm characteristics; therefore,
                     wide ranges are provided

                     Sources: FAO; BCG analysis.
                     Note: PL = post-larvae shrimp; L. vannamei = Litopenaeus vannamei; P. monodon = Penaeus monodon. NA = not
                     applicable.

12 | A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia
Exhibit 3 | Indonesia’s Farmed-Shrimp Supply Chain

     Feed mills         Hatcheries            Farmers            Middlemen            Processors   Local markets    International
                                                                                                     Exporters        retailers

 Source: BCG analysis.
 Note: This report focuses on feed mills, hatcheries, farmers, middlemen, and processors.

••   Middlemen. These intermediaries play a                      hatcheries, farms, processors, and export fa-
     role between farmers and all other                          cilities. In addition to these fully integrated
     segments of the value chain. Various small                  players, various midsize downstream play-
     to large players exist.                                     ers—such as Sekar Bumi and Bumi Menara
                                                                 Internusa—own farms, processing and export
••   Processors. Generally, both the processing                  facilities, and, in some cases, hatcheries. Some
     and the exporting are managed by one                        have a strong regional and species focus for
     company. The market is highly fragmented                    exports. Alter Trade Indonesia (ATINA), for
     with some large companies, such as CP                       example, supplies P. monodon to the Japa-
     Prima, Sekar Bumi, and Japfa, but there                     nese market. Both fully integrated and down-
     are also various midsize players, such as                   stream players often rely on middlemen to
     KML Foods and Panca Mitra Multiperdana.                     secure a stable supply of shrimp.

Across the value chain, two fully integrated
players, CP Prima and Japfa, own feed mills,

                                                                                                     Boston Consulting Group | 13
INDONESIA
THE CASE FOR CHANGE

               T    he Indonesian shrimp industry is
                    currently in a strong competitive position
               in the global market, but three market forces
                                                                  this price difference to the farm gate, Indone-
                                                                  sian farmers would barely make a profit.

               are threatening its position: low-price com-
               petitors, market demand and traceability           Market Demand and Traceability
               regulations, and an intensifying need to cope      Regulations
               with the high risk of disease and environmen-      In 2018, the US expanded its Seafood Import
               tal threats. (See Exhibit 4.)                      Monitoring Program (SIMP), which establish-
                                                                  es reporting and record-keeping requirements
                                                                  for seafood imports, to cover shrimp.
               Low-Price Competitors
               The global competition in the shrimp indus-        Because the US is the most important export
               try has increased sharply for L. vannamei in       market for Indonesia, SIMP has had a major
               recent years. India, in particular, has flooded    impact on the Indonesian shrimp industry, es-
               the market with low-price shrimp, and other        pecially when the standards have been strictly
               countries such as Vietnam and Ecuador, are         enforced. SIMP will likely have a similarly neg-
               expected to ramp up production as well. With       ative impact for the Indian export market giv-
               such a large supply of low-price shrimp avail-     en India’s relatively low traceability standards.
               able, prices will continue to decrease. Be-
               cause of their relatively high production costs,   In the wake of food safety scandals, China
               Indonesian companies cannot compete with           has also imposed stricter import regulations
               countries such as India to sell shrimp at lower    by passing new legislation and urging life-
               prices. A change is needed.                        time bans for offending importers. Although
                                                                  China is not a main export market for Indo-
               Indonesia’s number-one market for shrimp is        nesia, these moves exemplify the current
               the US: 80% of L. vannamei exports are to the      global trend toward increased traceability
               US, as well as 47% of P. monodon exports. In-      and health standards.
               dia is currently the leading exporter of shrimp
               to the US, claiming about 32% of the market        The demand for traceability is fueled also by
               and selling at significantly lower prices.         a fast-growing niche market for sustainable
                                                                  and traceable seafood—and some companies
               If the prices of Indonesia’s US exports            are beginning to capitalize on this trend. A
               dropped to match India’s current prices and        group of companies in Ecuador, for example,
               Indonesia’s processors translated just 50% of      established the Sustainable Shrimp Partner-

14 | A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia
ship to produce fully traceable shrimp while      ies (MMAF) launched Aquacard, a traceabili-
improving social and environmental perfor-        ty system, that aimed to help buyers trace
mance. As first movers act on this trend to-      shrimp back to the farm where it was pro-
ward traceability, Indonesia finds itself in a    duced. It is, however, unclear how much this
precarious position regarding its exports. It     system is being enforced. A small number of
risks losing share in the global shrimp mar-      companies are also getting their shrimp certi-
ket. Given its strong domestic market for         fied through international certification bod-
farmed shrimp, the shift toward traceability      ies, such as Best Aquaculture Practices, Aqua-
and sustainability affects Indonesia less than    culture Stewardship Council, GlobalGAP, and
other Asian countries, but over time, it could    British Retail Consortium, but only a small
have a devastating impact on Indonesia’s ex-      percentage of shrimp in Indonesia is as-
port business.                                    sumed to be truly certified, and some farms
                                                  have been accused of not fully complying
Some companies in Indonesia have started to       with certification standards. (See the sidebar
make progress on traceability. In 2014, Indo-     “Certifications: There Are No Shortcuts to
nesia’s Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisher-    Full Traceability.”)

  Exhibit 4 | The Case for Change Is Driven by Three Factors in Indonesia

  Low-price competitors               Market demand and                  High risk of disease and
                                    traceability regulations             environmental threats

  Source: BCG analysis.

   CERTIFICATIONS: THERE ARE NO SHORTCUTS TO FULL
   TRACEABILITY
   Retailers and producers, in collaboration      Because no reliable alternative to these
   with certification bodies, offer many          certifications currently exists, many
   certifications for seafood and shrimp          consumers accept them as proof of
   products. Many of these certifications         sustainability and increasingly demand
   can have positive impact on certain pro-       labeled seafood. In 2016, about 14% of
   duction and supply chain elements, but         farmed and caught seafood was certified,
   not all address environmental and social       and this number is expected to climb by
   issues within the farmed-shrimp value          about 5% annually through 2025. A small
   chain.                                         proportion of customers will pay premiums
                                                  as high as 40% in specialty stores for
   Furthermore, because the supply chain is       shrimp certified as sustainably produced
   so complex, it is nearly impossible to         and fully traceable.
   guarantee with 100% certainty that shrimp
   producers adhere to certification standards.   Certification standards and practices can
   Ultimately, the lack of traceability of        be problematic for the following reasons:
   certified supply chains renders some
   labeling untrustworthy and provides            ••   Certification standards vary, and each
   “perceived” rather than actual sustainabili-        certifying organization establishes its
   ty and responsibly produced shrimp.                 own minimum and maximum limits for

                                                                                     Boston Consulting Group | 15
CERTIFICATIONS: THERE ARE NO SHORTCUTS TO FULL
                    TRACEABILITY (continued)
                         such concerns as antibiotics and chemi-         ••   It is nearly impossible to compare one
                         cals, land use, and water pollution. And             protein product—shrimp, fish, or
                         many fail to differentiate between                   meat—with another protein product,
                         essential and innocuous requirements.                because certifications differ so much,
                                                                              depending on species.
                    ••   Shrimp farm certifications are not nec-
                         essarily product certifications. They are,      ••   Shrimp from certified farms and
                         instead, focused on farming processes.               noncertified farms are, in many cases,
                                                                              collected from a single middleman and
                    ••   Controls and audits on farms and at                  mixed in a single batch, making it
                         processing factories occur infrequent-               impossible to separate the sustainably
                         ly—at most twice a year. Furthermore,                produced shrimp from nonsustainably
                         only a subset of farms are checked and               produced shrimp.
                         audited in farm collectives, and there is
                         no mechanism for confirming that all            Certifications aim to provide transparency
                         farms within a collective adhere to the         on sustainability and production standards,
                         stated standards. Even for those that           but implementation is close to impossible
                         are controlled, only one day’s evidence         in Indonesia’s fragmented shrimp supply
                         is collected, and neither farming               chain. To achieve reliable traceability, all
                         practices nor impacts are monitored             players must participate and provide
                         over an extended period.                        continuous transparency into their produc-
                                                                         tion methods and inputs. This can be
                    ••   Many certifications have been awarded           achieved only with collaboration, constant
                         before traceability has been demon-             monitoring, and a platform that captures
                         strated.                                        tamper-free, truthful records. There are no
                                                                         shortcuts to traceability, and as previously
                    ••   In many cases, the cost of adhering to          stated, what has worked for Indonesia’s
                         certification standards and altering            shrimp industry in the past—providing
                         production processes is not shared along        certified products without proof of trace-
                         the supply chain, burdening only farms or       ability—will not work for much longer.
                         processors. From a social-equality              More holistic approaches to supply chain
                         perspective, this represents a major pitfall.   integrity are necessary.

               For a number of reasons, including the                    ••   In 2019, the US announced the end of its
               three given below, it’s important for Indone-                  preferential trade agreement with India.
               sia to shift toward traceability and sustain-                  This means that Indian shrimp could be
               ability now:                                                   subject to new duties.

               ••   Indonesia has earned a reputation as a               ••   By increasing sustainability standards
                    reliable shrimp source. From March 2014                   within the supply chain, the Indonesian
                    through March 2019, only 71 entry lines                   shrimp industry can tap into a new
                    were rejected at the US border. By contrast,              market, build an even stronger competi-
                    during the same period, 396 entry lines                   tive position, and become a leader in this
                    from India were rejected.                                 segment in the US.

                    Countries that fail to meet regulatory                    Other markets in which Indonesia has not
                    requirements face serious and lasting                     yet established a strong position might be
                    repercussions.Adherence, therefore, is                    more difficult to penetrate, but the US
                    critical.                                                 provides an immediate opportunity.

16 | A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia
High Risk of Disease and                           have already begun to develop suprainten-
Environmental Threats                              sive ponds lined with cement that are more
Extreme weather events and outbreaks of dis-       resistant to environmental threats. They are
eases can dramatically disrupt shrimp pro-         also using a central drain to dump shrimp
duction. These risks are expected to increase      waste, excess food, and other waste that accu-
in frequency and severity, particularly in re-     mulates at the bottom of the pond. This ap-
gions such as Jawa Timur and Kalimantan            proach allows for higher stocking densities
Timur, due to climate change and ongoing           and less wastewater discharge, and it reduces
mangrove deforestation. Environmentally            risk from environmental hazards. However, as
harmful shrimp-farming practices also con-         the ponds are still constructed outdoors, dis-
tribute to the problem. Lack of water treat-       ease can spread, and complete control over
ment, for example, leads to eutrophication,        water conditions is not possible.
diffusion of antibiotics, spread of disease, and
ultimately the destruction of coastal areas,       Indonesia could increase its competitive posi-
biodiversity loss, groundwater depletion, land     tion in the global shrimp supply chain by
degradation, and erosion.                          shifting to more sustainable and environmen-
                                                   tally sound production. New production meth-
There is a strong financial incentive for farm-    ods will lead to higher margins and also open
ers to become more resilient. For an intensive     up a sustainable niche market for producers.
L. vannamei farm, a natural disaster could         However, immediate changes on the farm and
lead to crop losses totaling $31,700 per crop      processing levels will not be sufficient. The in-
per hectare.3                                      dustry must improve sustainability and trace-
                                                   ability across the whole supply chain to truly
To mitigate risk and build resilience, farmers     tackle the challenges the industry is currently
need to protect their farms from changing          facing. (See the sidebar, “Unlocking the Eco-
weather conditions and reduce their environ-       nomic Potential of Mangroves.”)
mental footprint. Some Indonesian farmers

   UNLOCKING THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF MANGROVES
   P. monodon has traditionally been farmed        ••   Poor Water Quality. Although shrimp
   in mangrove areas, shrimp’s natural                  farming requires low acidity, soils in man-
   habitat, but this practice is threatening            grove areas are highly organic with a high
   Indonesia’s mangrove forests, which are              acid sulfate potential and low pH levels.
   crucial carbon storage ecosystems. As
   shrimp farming has intensified, it              ••   High Stress Levels That Result in
   has become evident that mangrove                     High Risk of Disease. Low pH levels
   areas are not ideal for the following                stress shrimp and can reduce pond
   reasons:                                             water nutrients, leading to serious
                                                        health threats.
   ••   Unfavorable Pond Construction. Low
        sea levels prevent construction of         ••   Higher Overall Costs. Construction
        deep ponds and complete drainage of             and production costs are generally
        used water during and after farming             higher, as farmers must take measures
        cycles.                                         to improve water quality and mitigate
                                                        soil degradation.
   ••   Poor Soil Quality. Soil used for
        constructing embankments as natural        For these reasons, it is not unusual for
        barriers between the pond and the          shrimp farms in mangrove areas to suffer
        surrounding environment tends to           low yields and productivity, and, therefore,
        degrade over time, so the embank-          shrimp farming in mangrove areas is not
        ments can eventually breach.               recommended.

                                                                                       Boston Consulting Group | 17
UNLOCKING THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF MANGROVES
                   (continued)

                   Nevertheless, local communities and                               forests protect coasts, impede erosion,
                   shrimp farmers continue to destroy                                prevent seawater intrusion, and are the
                   mangrove forests to build ponds for                               natural habitats of many plants and animals.
                   aquaculture. Historically, aquaculture has                        They also reduce the occurrence and severity
                   been responsible for around 50% of                                of natural disasters. In addition, they are
                   mangrove deforestation in Indonesia, and                          considered to be the largest carbon storage
                   in some regions, this destruction continues,                      ecosystems in the world, storing three times
                   mainly as a result of extensive P. monodon                        more carbon—about 940 tons of carbon per
                   shrimp production. From 2014 through                              hectare—than boreal, temperate, and tropical
                   2018, around 28,000 hectares of mangrove                          forests, which store about 300 tons of carbon
                   area were converted to pond aquaculture.                          per hectare. Owing to their many benefits,
                                                                                     mangroves generate a societal and environ-
                   The latest research suggests that mangrove                        mental value of $4,000 to $8,000 per hectare
                   deforestation in Indonesia has halted or even                     per year, and the value of carbon sequestra-
                   reversed over the past few years. Indonesia’s                     tion can be directly monetized through
                   mangrove area increased 6% overall from                           carbon offsets. (See the exhibit “Mangrove
                   2014 through 2018. But mangrove deforesta-                        Areas Provide Substantial Value.”)
                   tion continues to be a problem in certain
                   regions. In Kalimantan Timur, mangrove cover                      Mangrove Reforestation: A Business
                   dropped 5% between 2014 and 2018.                                 Opportunity
                                                                                     The growing trend to engage in carbon
                   Indonesia is home to approximately 17% of                         offsets could generate new economic
                   the world’s mangrove forests—approximately                        opportunities. Farmers can generate
                   3 million hectares as of 2018, which is roughly                   income by earning certifications, such as
                   the size of the US state of Vermont. Mangrove                     Verified Carbon Standard and Gold Stan-

                     Mangrove Areas Provide Substantial Value
                     Net use value per hectare per year ($)

                                      Direct value                                                     Indirect value
                                                                                                                                 4,147 to
                                                                                                694 to                            8,020
                                                                                                3,767             277

                                                                               2,292

                                                             800 to
                                                             1,600

                             36               48
                          Fisheries         Forestry         Carbon          Provision of      Coastline    Seawater intrusion   Total value
                                                          sequestration    nursery grounds     protection      prevention

                     Sources: Forests, 2015; Biodiversity International Journal, 2018; BCG analysis.

18 | A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia
UNLOCKING THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF MANGROVES
(continued)

dard, and receive funding per ton of carbon                   In addition, regulators may include REDD+
dioxide storage.                                              projects in their offset programs, such as
                                                              the EU Emissions Trading System and the
With carbon certification, the direct net                     California cap-and-trade program.2 Approxi-
present value (NPV) of intact mangrove                        mately 240 REDD+ projects—including
forests can be up to 20% higher than the                      Afforestation, Reforestation, and Revegeta-
NPV for extensive shrimp farming in                           tion and Improved Forest Management—
mangrove areas. (See the exhibit “The Value                   were certified in Asia, South America, Africa,
of Intact Mangroves Is 20% Higher Than                        and Oceania, and this number is expected
Extensive P. Monodon Farming.”)                               to grow. Over their lifetime, these 240 proj-
                                                              ects are expected to reduce emissions by
In addition, the payback period for reforesta-                some 2.2 billion metric tons of carbon
tion projects is 2.7 to 3.4 years, which means                dioxide, which, based on 2016 emissions, is
that intact mangroves and mangrove                            around four times as much as Indonesia
reforestation are better economic alterna-                    emits annually. Other certification bodies,
tives for shrimp farmers, even in the short                   such as myclimate and Natural Capital
term. Still, the certification process remains                Partners, support smaller-scale projects for
complicated and costly.                                       individuals’ or companies’ voluntary offsets.

The Carbon Offset Trend                                       The current carbon offset trend gives
There are various reasons for funding carbon                  shrimp farmers an economically viable
offsets. Many of the international certificates               alternative to deforestation and funds refor-
comply with the Reducing Emissions from                       estation projects. Carbon offsets should be
Deforestation and Forest Degradation                          promoted by large processing companies,
(REDD+) standard, and countries can use                       NGOs, and local communities to raise
the certifications to comply with their                       awareness and unlock the full economic
Nationally Determined Contributions under                     potential of mangrove forests.
the Paris Agreement of 2015.1

  The Value of Intact Mangroves Is 20% Higher Than Extensive P. Monodon Farming

  NPV per hectare ($)

               25,500 to
                50,500
    Direct      5,500 to
    value        10,500
                                  ~20%                • Assumptions based on                      Through the use
                                                        shrimp farming in South                   of carbon credits,
                                                        Sulawesi, Indonesia                       the value of the
               20,000 to
  Indirect      40,000
                                 6,000 to
                                                      • Assumes an interest rate of
                                                                                                  preservation of
                                  7,600                                                           mangroves is
    value                                               10% over ten years
                                                                                                  superior to that
                                                      • Value declines in shrimp                  of short-term
                                                        farming after five years                   focused
                 NPV          NPV extensive             owing to increased disease                aquaculture
                             shrimp farming             risk and lower yields

  Sources: Forests, 2015; Biodiversity International Journal, 2018; BCG analysis.
  Note: NPV = net present value; NPV is for a ten-year period. NPV extensive shrimp farming refers to extensive
  aquaculture in Indonesia
  Sources: Forests,          and assumes
                    2015; Biodiversity       losses ofJournal,
                                       International    0% to 50%
                                                               2018;per
                                                                     BCGyear since year five.
                                                                          analysis.

                                                                                                          Boston Consulting Group | 19
UNLOCKING THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF MANGROVES
                   (continued)
                   Notes                                                   2. Emissions-trading schemes set a maximum
                   1. The Paris Agreement brought together all nations     allowance for total greenhouse gasses and issue
                   to combat climate change and adapt to its effects. It   specific shares—auctioned or allocated for free—to
                   requires countries to commit to emissions reduction     all participants. If emissions exceed allowances,
                   targets—the so-called Nationally Determined             participants must purchase additional allowances.
                   Contributions—in the coming years. So far, 185
                   parties out of 197 have ratified the United Nations
                   Framework Convention on Climate Change.

20 | A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia
INDONESIA’S PRODUCERS
          CAN CREATE IMMEDIATE
               ECONOMIC VALUE

T   hree imperatives inform the future           Feed Mills: Increase Profit
    of Indonesia’s farmed shrimp: pursue         Margins and Diversify the
immediate change to alter current practices      Portfolio with Functional Feed
on an individual level, increasing efficiency    The feed market in Indonesia is expected to
and productivity while improving profit          grow at 8% per year through 2022, in line
margins; collaborate to achieve product          with Indonesia’s overall shrimp market. The
traceability; and make bold shifts toward        shrimp probiotics market, which helps farm-
indoor shrimp farming by investing in            ers increase shrimp growth and survival rates,
closed-containment indoor facilities de-         is expected to grow at 9% per year through
signed to reduce contamination, increase         2020. This growth illustrates the demand
output, minimize the environmental foot-         from farmers for food additives or new food
print, and improve accountability. (See          formulas. Feed mills have an opportunity to
Exhibit 5.)                                      respond to the growing demand by expand-
                                                 ing their portfolios to include functional
The shift to traceability, transparency, and     feed—basic feed that has been enhanced
indoor farming offers the highest potential      with additives, such as proteins, vitamins, or
for successfully defending the currently         probiotics (but never antibiotics), to achieve a
strong competitive position of Indonesia’s       specific outcome. It is not uncommon for feed
shrimp industry, but this will require consid-   mills to improve basic feed with additives,
erable capital investment, extensive exper-      but functional feed is slightly different from
tise, and time.                                  improved basic feed: it is used in specific cir-
                                                 cumstances to achieve a specific outcome,
In the meantime, there are several immediate     usually includes more additives, and is there-
changes that actors along the value chain,       fore defined as its own feed category.
particularly feed mills and farmers, can im-
plement to significantly improve financial       Two types of functional feed have high po-
performance and resource efficiency and cre-     tential.
ate environmental benefits.
                                                 Growth Enhancement Functional Feed. This
In this section, we briefly review the several   is used to increase shrimp growth rates and
ways that each player in Indonesia’s farmed-     allow farmers to sell larger shrimp at a
shrimp value chain can benefit from these        potentially higher price or to accelerate
short-term improvements. (See Exhibits 6         growth cycles and, therefore, farm through-
and 7.)                                          put. It offers a positive business case for feed

                                                                                   Boston Consulting Group | 21
Exhibit 5 | Several Levers Can Maximize Business Success While Creating Positive
  Environmental and Social Impact
 Lowest

                           Immediate short-term changes                          Levers for short-term changes
                           Act on single levers and implement
                           step-by-step changes                               1 Improved feed use
                                                                                 Innovative feeds to boost productivity and
                                                                                 reduce environmental impact
                           Integrated player
                           Implement multiple short-term changes              2 Improved water treatment
                           at once                                               Reduced freshwater use and pollution while
 Impact

                                                                                 improving efficiencies

                           Supply chain collaboration through                 3 Improved clean energy use
                                                                                 Reduction of carbon footprint and access to
                           traceability                                          reliable, cheaper energy sources than diesel
                           Fully traceable and transparent supply                generators
                           chains
                                                                                 Improved health
 Highest

                                                                                 No chemical or drug use to increase shrimp
                           Sustainable intensification                            health and to prevent entry line refusals
                           Significant industry shift to superintensive
                           indoor shrimp farming                                 Improved social issues
                                                                                 Social equality and adherence to international
                                                                                 labor standards

  Source: BCG analysis.
  Note: Our focus in on levers 1, 2, and 3.

                      mills, potentially increasing EBIT margins by      feed from the market: farmers will likely pur-
                      a factor of up to about 2.6 per kilogram of        chase the expensive feed only when there’s a
                      shrimp feed sold. This increase in profitability   direct economic benefit, such as when global
                      is achieved by charging a premium of as            shrimp prices rise significantly. It does offer a
                      much as 20%, offsetting the additional             good opportunity for feed mills to diversify
                      production costs.                                  their portfolios, boost revenues, and improve
                                                                         profit margins, but a complete shift is not rec-
                      However, when farmers invest in growth en-         ommended. To attain these benefits, it is im-
                      hancement functional feed, their feed conver-      portant that feed mills market functional
                      sion ratio (FCR) is drastically reduced.4 The      feed and educate farmers on its benefits. (See
                      immediate demand for feed may drop, reduc-         the Appendix for a discussion of growth en-
                      ing revenues by up to 8% per kilogram of           hancement and health enhancement func-
                      shrimp produced, but this decline can be off-      tional feed.)
                      set by other factors, including the ability to
                      charge higher prices for functional feed and       Feed mills that extend their product portfolio
                      an overall uptick in demand for feed (as           by selling functional feed can increase profits,
                      shrimp grow faster and demand increases).          help farmers increase production volumes,
                                                                         and support growth within the shrimp indus-
                      Health Enhancement Functional Feed. This           try as a whole. They have both a clear incen-
                      type of feed can enhance shrimp health and         tive and a responsibility to act. Switching to
                      disease resistance, and it also offers several     functional feed also benefits the environment
                      benefits for feed mills, not the least of which    by decreasing land use—as a result of re-
                      is that feed mills can charge premiums of up       duced FCR—by up to 15% per kilogram of
                      to 50%, leading to profit margins that could       shrimp produced, improving water quality by
                      be more than four times higher than average        reducing feed waste, decreasing the use of an-
                      in an optimal case. Production and feed            tibiotics, and requiring less fish meal and fish
                      ingredient costs will likely increase by 10% to    oil. However, these benefits materialize only
                      20%, but these costs are typically offset by the   if functional feed is widely used, and the pos-
                      revenue boost.                                     itive environmental impact depends on what
                                                                         substitutes are used for fish meal.
                      It is fair to assume that the demand for func-
                      tional feed will increase in the years to come,    Feed mills are responsible also for careful
                      but it will not completely displace regular        consideration of the production of the feed’s

22 | A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia
Exhibit 6 | Current Average Economics per Value Chain Step

                           Feed mills        Hatcheries         Farmers          Middlemen         Processors          Local             National
                                                                                                                       market            retailers
                                                                                                                      Exporters       International
                                                                                                                                        retailers

                              $0.84            $2,680            $3.17                                        $8.49
                 Costs     per kilogram      per million PL     per kilogram                            per kilogram of shrimp
                              of feed                            of shrimp
 L. vannamei

                              $0.90             $3,190            $3.75                                        $8.89
                 Price     per kilogram      per million PL     per kilogram                            per kilogram of shrimp
                              of feed                            of shrimp

                 EBIT
                                ~7               ~16               ~16            ~2 to 7                        ~5
               margins %

                              $0.84            $1,400            $3.50                                        $11.88
                 Costs     per kilogram      per million PL     per kilogram                            per kilogram of shrimp
                              of feed                            of shrimp
 P. monodon

                              $0.90             $1,700            $5.20                                       $13.00
                 Price     per kilogram      per million PL     per kilogram                            per kilogram of shrimp
                              of feed                            of shrimp

                 EBIT
                                ~7               ~18               ~33           ~5 to 12                        ~9
               margins %

   Source: BCG analysis.
   Note: L. vannamei = Litopenaeus vannamei; P. monodon = Penaeus monodon; PL = post-larvae shrimp. Calculations for L. vannamei are based
   on large-scale players and shrimp averaging around 60 pieces per kilogram; calculations for P. monodon are based on small-scale players (except
   feed) with prices based on shrimp averaging around 40 pieces per kilogram; margins include considerations such as survival rate. Rounding errors
   are possible.

ingredients. Worldwide, the demand for fish                        could have far-reaching impact beyond the
meal in shrimp feed has led to the depletion                       shrimp supply chain.
of some wild-capture fisheries and, in some
cases, serious human and labor rights abuses                       The industry is also working to develop feed
on fishing vessels. Similarly, the cultivation of                  production methods, such as extrusion (cook-
plant ingredients such as soy and corn for                         ing under high temperature and processing
shrimp feed creates a high burden on land                          under high pressure) and the manufacture of
use. The natural resources used in feed—so-                        pelleted feeds (no cooking and processing un-
called embodied resources—represent a hid-                         der much less pressure). Both of these ap-
den, but vitally important, depletion of re-                       proaches have the potential to improve the
sources and thus need to be considered                             digestibility of feed ingredients.
carefully.

Some feed mills and raw-material suppliers                         Hatcheries: Ensure the Quality of
are experimenting with fish meal and soy-                          Post-Larvae Shrimp Through
bean meal replacements, using, for example,                        Selective Breeding
alternative and less resource-intensive ingre-                     PL produced by hatcheries are critically im-
dients such as marine microbes. At the same                        portant for farmers. High-quality PL produc-
time, some companies are experimenting                             tion can improve grow-out farm survival rates
with black soldier fly larvae, an efficient bio-                   as well as the quality and health of shrimp,
convertor and a valuable feeding resource.                         ultimately benefiting the entire industry.
Once applied at large scale, these innovations                     Hence, hatcheries represent a crucial enabler.

                                                                                                                Boston Consulting Group | 23
Exhibit 7 | The Economics of Short-Term Improvements

                 Status quo                       Feed                                  Water                             Combination

                                      Growth enhancement                                                          Growth enhancement
                                      EBIT margin:        Increase:                                               with biofloc
                  EBIT margin:                                              None                                  EBIT margin:      Increase:
                                      Up to   18%         157%
                    ~7%                                                                                           Up to 18%        157%
  Feed                                                                        In the sale of functional
                                                                              feed, overall feed mill
 mill level                           Health enhancement
                                                                              EBIT margins depend                 Potential revenue loss
                                      EBIT margin:        Increase:           on the feed portfolio of            through improved farm
                                                                              individual farms                    efficiency, with a similar
                                      Up to 28%           300%                                                    increase in farming output

                                      Growth enhancement                    Biofloc                                Growth enhancement with
                                                                                                                  biofloc and energy
                  EBIT margin:        EBIT margin:        Increase:         EBIT margin:         Increase:
                                                                                                                  Positive, but further
                    ~16%              Up to 23%            46%              Up to 21%           34%               studies are required
   Farm
   level                              Health                                                                      Growth enhancement with
                                      enhancement                           RAS                                   RAS and energy

                                      EBIT margin of up to 17% even         EBIT margin:         Increase:         EBIT margin:      Increase:
                                      during disease outbreaks
                                      versus 2% with basic feed             Up to 25%           64%               Up to 33%         106%

 Source: BCG analysis.
 Note: EBIT margin is based on feed per kilogram sold. RAS = recirculating aquaculture systems. Rounding errors are possible.

                    Many hatcheries still rely on imported brood-                      duce production costs and increase output at
                    stock, although domestic broodstock and se-                        the farm level.
                    lective breeding techniques ensure better
                    shrimp survival, reduce the risk of disease,                       Although our analysis did not reveal many
                    and position hatcheries to focus on breeding                       opportunities for hatcheries to implement
                    PL that grow faster and larger. Nonetheless,                       short-term changes in feeding techniques or
                    because it is considered to be of better quali-                    water treatment systems, hatcheries that of-
                    ty than Indonesian broodstock, many hatch-                         fer high-quality PL with benefits such as SPF
                    eries purchase imported broodstock. Through                        can charge premiums for their products. Pri-
                    further R&D, a shift to domestic broodstock                        ma Aquatics and Global Gen are examples of
                    can help the Indonesian shrimp industry be-                        Indonesian hatcheries that initiated SPF
                    come more independent and significantly re-                        breeding programs.
                    duce the potential spread of diseases from
                    foreign countries.                                                 Individual hatcheries should focus on improv-
                                                                                       ing quality by domesticating broodstock and
                    For example, after outbreaks of diseases in                        implementing selective breeding practices to
                    the late 1980s and early 1990s, hatcheries                         help minimize the risk of disease and allow
                    successfully produced a specific pathogen-                         them to compete more effectively against
                    free (SPF) broodstock to make shrimp more                          the significant market power of integrated
                    disease resistant. Moreover, recent studies                        players.
                    have shown that SPF lines of selected stocks
                    maintained under the proper conditions can                         Because developing better PL involves genet-
                    help reestablish farm populations even in the                      ic testing and investments in R&D, implemen-
                    event of stock losses caused by the outbreak                       tation might be rather difficult for small
                    of disease. In providing high-quality and                          hatcheries. Institutions and players with the
                    healthy PL, hatcheries significantly help re-                      necessary means should, therefore, support

24 | A Strategic Approach to Sustainable Shrimp Production in Indonesia
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