BROWN TO GREEN The G20 transition to a low-carbon economy | 2017 - Climate Transparency

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BROWN TO GREEN The G20 transition to a low-carbon economy | 2017 - Climate Transparency
BROWN TO GREEN
The G20 transition to a low-carbon economy | 2017
BROWN TO GREEN The G20 transition to a low-carbon economy | 2017 - Climate Transparency
BROWN TO GREEN | 2017

    AUTHORS AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
    This report was prepared by Swati Agarwal (The Energy and Resources Institute), Bridget Boulle (Climate Bonds Initiative),
    Yann Briand (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations), Jan Burck (Germanwatch), Ipek Gençsü
    (Overseas Development Institute), Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga (NewClimate Institute), Markus Hagemann (NewClimate Institute),
    Niklas Höhne (NewClimate Institute), Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute China), Gerd Leipold (HUMBOLDT-VIADRINA
    Governance Platform), Karan Mangotra (The Energy and Resources Institute), Enrique Maurtua Konstantinidis (Fundación
    Ambiente y Recursos Naturales), Andrew Marquard (Energy Research Center, University of Cape Town), Franziska Marten
    (Germanwatch), Mia Moisio (NewClimate Institute), Keno Riechers (NewClimate Institute), Hannah Schindler (HUMBOLDT-
    VIADRINA Governance Platform), Thomas Spencer (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations),
    Fabby Tumiwa (Institute for Essential Service Reform), Thea Uhlich (Germanwatch), Jorge Villarreal (Iniciativa Climática
    de México), Charlene Watson (Overseas Development Institute), Shelagh Whitley (Overseas Development Institute),
    William Wills (CentroClima, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro). Responsibility for the report lies with the authors and
    does not necessarily represent the opinions of their organizations.

    We express our gratitude to the following contributors for their invaluable input and support: Cindy Baxter, Mona Freundt,
    Joel Kenrick (European Climate Foundation), Rachel Chi Kiu Mok (World Bank), Takeshi Kuramochi (NewClimate Institute),
    Alan David Lee (World Bank), Surabi Menon (ClimateWorks Foundation), Bert Metz (European Climate Foundation), Ragnhild
    Pieper (European Climate Foundation), Chandra Shekhar Sinha (World Bank), Sandhya Srinivasan (World Bank), Caren Weeks,
    Sebastian Wegner (HUMBOLDT-VIADRINA Governance Platform).

    Suggested citation:
    Climate Transparency 2017: BROWN TO GREEN: THE G20 TRANSITION TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY,
    Climate Transparency, c/o Humboldt-Viadrina Governance Platform, Berlin, Germany, www.climate-transparency.org.

    This report was made possible
    through support of

    Partners of Climate Transparency:

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BROWN TO GREEN The G20 transition to a low-carbon economy | 2017 - Climate Transparency
CONTENT

                                  Authors and Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

                      FOREWORD    Transparency and comparability are drivers for more
                                  ambitious climate action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

              EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   The G20 is decarbonising, but too slowly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

                   INTRODUCTION   Why the G20 countries must make a rapid transition
                                  to low-carbon economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS         Still rising, but energy-related CO2 emissions have stalled . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

CLIMATE POLICY PERFORMANCE        High on policy development, low on ambition and implementation . . . . . . . . 20

  FINANCING THE TRANSITION        Green investments are increasing, but government actions
                                  still favour brown over green infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
                                  1. Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
                                  2. Fiscal policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
                                  3. Provision of international support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

          DECARBONISATION         More “green,” still too much “brown” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

                                  ABOUT THIS REPORT

                                  The Brown to Green Report 2017 by Climate Transparency provides a
                                  comprehensive overview of the G20 countries, whether – and how well – they
                                  are doing on the journey to transition to a low-carbon economy. It assesses the
                                  main trends for the G20 in emissions, climate policy performance, finance, and
                                  decarbonisation. The report summarises and compares the findings presented
                                  in Climate Transparency’s country profiles for each G20 country (incl. the EU).
                                  Findings are based on publicly available data by renowned institutions.
                                  The country profiles and a technical note on data sources and methodology
                                  can be downloaded on http://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-climate-
                                  performance/g20report2017.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      3
BROWN TO GREEN The G20 transition to a low-carbon economy | 2017 - Climate Transparency
FOREWORD

    TRANSPARENCY AND COMPARABILITY ARE DRIVERS FOR
    MORE AMBITIOUS CLIMATE ACTION
    Alvaro Umaña and Peter Eigen                                       These experiences motivated and guided us, when we were
                                                                       thinking about describing government climate action. Global
                                                                       greenhouse gas emissions will need to peak in the near
    When President Trump decided to pull the US out of the Paris
                                                                       future, and be reduced to net zero soon after 2050 to meet
    Agreement, his justification was that the agreement was “very
                                                                       the well below 2°C or 1.5°C limit under the Paris Agreement.
    unfair” to the US. The question of whether the Paris Agreement
                                                                       Even a cursory look at the present government commitments
    is fair and whether countries are delivering what is needed
                                                                       shows that this limit will be far exceeded unless they step up
    to meet the long-term objective is a hugely important one.
                                                                       their ambition.
    While most people and states agree about “holding the
    increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C”      For this reason, we decided to bring together experts from
    and “to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to        around the world to produce an annual report of the G20
    1.5°C,” a common understanding that burdens and benefits           countries’ climate actions. For good reason, we call the
    are shared fairly will be crucial for governments.                 report “Brown to Green”. The laudable efforts for more green
                                                                       investments will only help the climate if they are coupled
    The ability to compare what governments do with what is
                                                                       with a drastic reduction in investments in “brown” fossil fuels.
    required to meet the long-term objective is even more im-
    portant, as the Paris Agreement has a bottom-up architecture,      The G20 countries are well positioned to provide the needed
    where countries independently define what their contributions      leadership for this transition. They account for 85% of global
    should be, depending on their national circumstances.              GDP and 80% of worldwide CO2 emissions. According to
                                                                       IRENA-IEA, these countries are also home to 98% of global
    Our Brown to Green Report provides politicians, business
                                                                       installed capacity of wind power, 97% of solar power and 93%
    leaders, experts, media and civil society with the information
                                                                       of electric vehicles.
    with which they can easily compare G20 government climate
    action, and whether their effort is sufficient to stay under the   We rely on publicly available information, but, of course, we
    well below 2°C/1.5°C limit. Our report is comprehensive, yet       know that the choice of what information to use involves
    concise enough that the non-expert and those with limited          judgment calls. And the judgment of even the most
    time gain a clear insight.                                         scientifically minded expert can be influenced by national
                                                                       and institutional perspectives. We are proud to say that our
    When we founded Climate Transparency in 2014, we were
                                                                       partnership has significantly grown over the last year and now
    driven by our own personal experiences as Minister for
                                                                       includes experts and institutions from Argentina, Brazil, China,
    Environment in Costa Rica and as founder of Transparency
                                                                       France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa and
    International. As a minister, you have to deal with many policy
                                                                       the UK. And we believe that the convergence of these global
    challenges simultaneously and you therefore are reliant
                                                                       perspectives together with a commitment to work according
    on credible and precise information for making informed
                                                                       to scientific standards leads to credible information.
    decisions. Country comparisons are crucial to develop a
    better understanding of what other countries in the region         Article 13 of the Paris Agreement mandates an “enhanced
    are doing and how Costa Rica could learn from them.                transparency framework”. This transparency framework is crucial
                                                                       to track the actions undertaken by countries as well as the
    Transparency has been a powerful tool for civil society to
                                                                       financial, technological and capacity-building support provided.
    combat corruption. The yearly Corruption Perception Index
                                                                       A global stocktake every five years will determine whether
    of Transparency International – ranking countries according
                                                                       national contributions add up to remain well below 2°C/1.5°C
    to their perceived levels of corruption – has demonstrated
                                                                       and is supposed to lead to strengthening the plans of countries.
    that governments care about their reputation. Repeatedly,
    governments have responded to Transparency International,          Our Brown to Green report complements the UNFCCC
    signalling they would be raising anti-corruption measures.         transparency mechanism. It reports on countries’ progress

4
BROWN TO GREEN The G20 transition to a low-carbon economy | 2017 - Climate Transparency
once a year – a shorter interval than the Paris Agreement          • For the first time, the Brown to Green report sheds light
demands. In contrast to government technical reporting, it           on the decarbonisation developments per sector in each
provides easily accessible and independent information for           G20 country.
politicians, policy makers, civil society, media and non-climate
                                                                   • We have strived to refer to the well below 2°C and aiming
experts that can stimulate the national debates to increase
                                                                     for 1.5°C benchmark where possible. In some cases – for
ambition. By driving transparency, we support the building of
                                                                     example the adequacy analysis of the Nationally Determined
trust and confidence among countries.
                                                                     Contributions  only measurements based on 2°C are
The German G20 Presidency has put climate change high on             available. We are aware that these do not reflect the Paris
the agenda. And while President Trump withdraws from the             Agreement goals and efforts have to go further, and we are
Paris Agreement, we can observe positive decarbonisation             aiming to adjust our analysis accordingly next year.
developments in many countries, even the US.
                                                                   • The finance section of the report has been extended, now
The Brown to Green Report 2017 is Climate Transparency’s             also presenting information on green bonds, public finance
third report published on the eve of the G20 summit. We              invested in fossil fuels, effective carbon prices and a more
are proud to present several changes to last year’s report           detailed account of climate finance.
that improve our analysis on how well G20 countries are
                                                                   We hope our transparent and comparable information can
transitioning towards a low-carbon economy:
                                                                   be a powerful tool to stimulate a race to the top in climate
                                                                   action.

Alvaro Umaña                                                       Peter Eigen
Former Minister of Environment and Energy of Costa Rica,           Founder and Chair of the Advisory Council of Transparency
and former Ambassador of Costa Rica to the United Nations          International, and Co-Founder of the HUMBOLDT-VIADRINA
Copenhagen Climate Change Conference                               Governance Platform

                                                                                                                                    5
BROWN TO GREEN The G20 transition to a low-carbon economy | 2017 - Climate Transparency
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    THE G20 IS DECARBONISING,
    BUT TOO SLOWLY
    G20 countries account for 75% of global greenhouse gas                                         economy creates jobs and fosters innovation. Moving away
    emissions and about 82% of global energy-related CO2                                           from fossil fuels in energy production, transport and industry
    emissions (2014).1 If present emission trends were to continue,                                would dramatically reduce air pollution and increase public
    global temperatures would increase between 3 and 4°C.2 The                                     health for billions of people.
    consequences for the world would be dramatic.                                                  The G20 countries as a whole have made big efforts to reduce
    Because they are the biggest contributors, the G20                                             their impact on climate. They have started the transition from
    governments have a special responsibility to act on climate                                    brown to green, but are in an early phase. Present efforts are
    change, using their economic strength to lead the transition                                   neither sufficient in speed – nor in depth – to keep global
    to a low-carbon economy.                                                                       warming to the limit set in the Paris Agreement: “holding the
    The necessity to protect the climate is not simply a burden,                                   increase in the global average temperature to well below
    it coincides with other urgent needs and offers substantial                                    2°C” and “to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase
    benefits. The industrialised world’s ageing energy system                                      to 1.5°C”.
    needs massive investments, and many people without – or
    with only limited access to energy – require more non-
    polluting energy for a decent, healthier life. Moving from a
    “brown” economy based on fossil fuels to a sustainable “green”

    1) PRIMAP (2017), https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/climate-impacts-and-vulnerabilities/research/rd2-flagship-projects/gia/primap/primap and IEA (2017): “CO2
       Emissions from Fuel Combustion”, https://www.iea.org/statistics/relateddatabases/co2emissionsfromfuelcombustion/
    2) Rogelj, J., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Schaeffer, R., Sha, F., Riahi, K. & Meinshausen, M. (2016). “Paris Agreement climate proposals need a
       boost to keep warming well below 2 °C”, Nature, 534(7609), 631–639, http://doi.org/10.1038/nature18307

6
BROWN TO GREEN The G20 transition to a low-carbon economy | 2017 - Climate Transparency
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

        GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENT

STILL RISING, BUT ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS                                                  in 2014 for the first time and were kept almost constant also
HAVE STALLED                                                                                    in 2015 and 2016.5 This trend is confirmed by other estimates.6
                                                                                                To stay within the Paris Agreement limits, G20 emissions
The G20 countries’ greenhouse gas emissions3 grew by                                            need to be drastically reduced – a peak needs to be reached
34% between 1990 and 2014.4 Yet, in the same period their                                       by 2020 and CO2 emissions need to decline to net zero by
economies grew more, by nearly 117%, demonstrating that                                         around 2050.7
G20 countries are using energy resources more efficiently
than in the past.
There are signs of an absolute decoupling of emissions and
economic growth (i.e. declining emissions with a growing                                                                                   According to the International Energy
economy) within the G20. According to the International                                                                                    Agency, global energy-related G20   CO
                                                                                                                                                                                key2 emissions
                                                                                                                                                                           G20key
                                                                                                                                           stalled in 2014 for the first indicators
                                                                                                                                                                          time  and were
                                                                                                                                                                           indicators
Energy Agency, global energy-related CO2 emissions stalled                                                                                 kept almost constant also in      2015
                                                                                                                                                                              2014 and 2016.
                                                                                                                                                                         inin2014

                                                                                                                                                                            +7.1
                                                                                                                                                                            +7.1%%
                                                                                                                                                                            G20 key
                                                                                                                                                                            indicators
                                                                                                                                                                            in 2014

KEY INDICATORS ON THE G20 TRANSITION TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY                                                                                                                +7.1 %
                                                                                                                                                                                      +1.3
                                                                                                                                                                                      +1.3%%
%%G20
  G20annual
      annualvariation
             variation
120
120                                                                                                                                                                                         -0.2
                                                                                                                                                                                             -0.2%%
                                                                                                                                                                                      +1.3
                                                                                                                                                 GDP
                                                                                                                                                 GDPPPP
                                                                                                                                                     PPP
                                                                                                                                                                                      GHG
                                                                                                                                                                                       GHG
                                                                                                                                                                                           %
100
100
% G20 annual variation
                                                                                                                                                                           GDP
                                                                                                                                                                           GDPPPP
                                                                                                                                                                               PPP GHG
                                                                                                                                                                                   GHG         Energy-
                                                                                                                                                                                                Energy-
120
 80
 80                                                                                                                                              GDP PPP
                                                                                                                                                                                    emissions
                                                                                                                                                                                                -0.2
                                                                                                                                                                                     emissions related
                                                                                                                                                                                                related
                                                                                                                                                                                                  CO22%
                                                                                                                                                                                                 CO
                                                                                                                                                                                              emissions
                                                                                                                                                                                               emissions
                                                                                                                                                                                      GHG
100
 60
 60                                                                                                                                              Energy-related
                                                                                                                                                  Energy-related           GDP PPP GHG        Energy-
                                                                                                                                                  CO22emissions
                                                                                                                                                 CO    emissions                    emissions related
                                                                                                                                                                                                CO2
 80                                                                                                                                                                                          emissions
 40
 40
                                                                                                                                   GHG            GHG emissions
 60                                                                                                                                              Energy-related
                                                                                                                                                 Energy-related
                                                                                                                                                  Energy-relatedCO
                                                                                                                                                                 CO22       G20
                                                                                                                                                                             G20key
                                                                                                                                                                                  key
 20
 20                                                                                                                                              CO 2 emissions

                                                                                                                                                                                               +3.5
                                                                                                                                                                                               +3.5%%
                                                                                                                                                 emissions
                                                                                                                                                  emissionsper
                                                                                                                                                            percapita
                                                                                                                                                                capita      indicators
                                                                                                                                                                             indicators
                                                                                                                                                                            (1990-2014)
                                                                                                                                                                             (1990-2014)
 40                                                                                                                                              Carbon
                                                                                                                                                  Carbonintensity
                                                                                                                                                           intensity
  00                                                                                                                                             of
                                                                                                                                                  ofthe
                                                                                                                                                     theenergy
                                                                                                                                                         energysector
                                                                                                                                                                 sector
                                                                                                                                                 Energy-related CO2         G20 key
  20
                                                                                                                                                                                               +3.5%
                                                                                                                                                 emissions per capita       indicators
--20
  20                                                                                                                                             Carbon
                                                                                                                                                  Carbonintensity
                                                                                                                                                           intensity        (1990-2014)
                                                                                                                                                 of
                                                                                                                                                  ofthe
                                                                                                                                                     theeconomy
                                                                                                                                                         economy
                                                                                                                                                 Carbon intensity
   0                                                                                                                                             Energy
                                                                                                                                                  Energy
                                                                                                                                                 of      intensity
                                                                                                                                                          intensity
                                                                                                                                                    the energy  sector
--40
  40                                                                                                                                             of
                                                                                                                                                  ofthe
                                                                                                                                                     theeconomy
                                                                                                                                                         economy
- 20 1990
      1990                    1995
                               1995                   2000
                                                       2000                    2005
                                                                                2005                   2010
                                                                                                        2010              2014
                                                                                                                           2014                  Carbon intensity
                                                                                                                                                 of the economy

- 40
                                                                                                                                                 Energy intensity
                                                                                                                                                 of the economy
                                                                                                                                                                           -27
                                                                                                                                                                            -27%% -30
                                                                                                                                                                                  -30%%
                                                                                                                                                                           Carbon
                                                                                                                                                                            Carbon Energy
                                                                                                                                                                                       Energy Carbon
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Carbon
     1990                  1995World Bank, 20172000                            2005                    2010               2014                                            intensity
                                                                                                                                                                           intensity intensity
                                                                                                                                                                                      intensity intensity
                                                                                                                                                                                                 intensity
Source: IEA, 2016; PRIMAP, 2017;                                                                                                                                            ofofthe
                                                                                                                                                                                 the   ofofthe
                                                                                                                                                                                            the ofofthe
                                                                                                                                                                                                     the
                                                                                                                                                                          economy
                                                                                                                                                                           economy economy
                                                                                                                                                                                      economy energy
                                                                                                                                                                                                  energy
                                                                                                                                                                           -27 -30 %         % sector
                                                                                                                                                                                                   sector
                                                                                                                                                                           Carbon    Energy Carbon
                                                                                                                                                                          intensity intensity intensity
                                                                                                                                                                            of the   of the     of the
                                                                                                                                                                         economy economy energy
3) Including Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) emissions                                                                                      If the climate objectives are sector
4) PRIMAP (2017), https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/climate-impacts-and-vulnerabilities/research/rd2-flagship-projects/gia/                               to be met, the carbon intensity
   primap/primap                                                                                                                                            has to reduce substantially.
5) IEA (2017): “IEA finds CO2 emissions flat for third straight year even as global economy grew in 2016”, https://www.iea.org/
   newsroom/news/2017/march/iea-finds-co2-emissions-flat-for-third-straight-year-evenas-global-economy-grew.html
6) The Global Carbon Project (2017), http://www.globalcarbonproject.org and BP (2017), http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/
   energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
7) Rogelj, J., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Schaeffer, M., Krey, V., & Riahi, K. (2015): “Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-
   century warming to below 1.5°C”, Nature Climate Change, 5, 519–527, http://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2572

                                                                                                                                                                                                             7
BROWN TO GREEN The G20 transition to a low-carbon economy | 2017 - Climate Transparency
BROWN TO GREEN | 2017

           DECARBONISATION                                                   CLIMATE POLICY PERFORMANCE

    GREENER, YET STILL TOO BROWN                                       HIGH ON POLICY DEVELOPMENT, LOW ON AMBITION
    G20 economies are becoming more efficient – both the               AND IMPLEMENTATION
    energy intensity and the carbon intensity of the economies are     All G20 governments have put forward mitigation targets and
    decreasing.8 As both energy consumption and the economy            introduced national climate policies in different sectors. In
    have grown, the higher efficiency has not been sufficient to       most countries, policy frameworks are quite comprehensive.
    lead to an overall reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.          But 2020 targets and the initial Nationally Determined
    The carbon intensity of the energy sector (CO2 /Total Primary      Contributions filed with the Paris Agreement are insufficient
    Energy Supply (TPES)) in the G20 has been slightly increasing      to limit global warming to well below 2°C, let alone to the
    between 1990 and 2014 as the growing energy demand                 1.5°C target, as mandated in the Paris Agreement.
    has been partly satisfied with coal. The needs of developing       After the great success of the adoption and the fast entry
    countries will require an increase of their total primary energy   into force of the Paris Agreement, the real challenge is in
    supply. If the climate objectives are to be met at the same        implementing measures at home. This is reflected in the
    time, the carbon intensity has to reduce substantially. During     fact that experts from many G20 countries have ranked their
    recent years, there has been a decreasing trend for more           government’s performance in international policy processes
    than half of the G20 countries (Argentina, Australia, the EU,      (being constructive in the international climate negotiations)
    France, Italy, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Russia, Turkey, the UK   higher than their national climate policy performance,
    and the United States).                                            where they are criticised for their inadequate ambition
    Renewable energy is on the rise, but coal and other fossil fuels   and implementation. China, Brazil, France, Germany, India,
    still dominate in the G20’s energy mix.                            Mexico and South Africa receive high scores for both their
                                                                       national and international climate policy performance. After
                                                                       the change in the US government, the US's national and
                                                                       international policy performance has been rated down by
                                                                       experts from high to very low.

    8) See graph in Executive Summary

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BROWN TO GREEN The G20 transition to a low-carbon economy | 2017 - Climate Transparency
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

        FINANCING THE TRANSITION

G20 GOVERNMENTS CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY                                                     Fiscal policies
FINANCE BROWN INFRASTRUCTURE                                                                  The G20 countries are not living up to their long-standing and
                                                                                              repeated commitment to phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.
Investments                                                                                   Based on data from the OECD and IEA, in 2014, G20 countries
Globally, total investment required in infrastructure over the                                provided over US$ 230 billion subsidies to coal, oil and gas.
next 15 years is estimated to be around US$ 80-90 trillion.                                   More carbon pricing mechanisms have been introduced in
To make this investment compatible with a 2°C target initially                                recent years. However, carbon prices and effective carbon
requires a higher investment of about 5% which pays off over                                  rates, which take into account various energy taxes and carbon
time.9 Countries need to scale up public and private financial                                pricing schemes remain too low in G20 countries to encourage a
flows, and to redirect flows from brown to green.                                             substantial shift to a low-carbon economy.
G20 countries are attractive for renewable energy
investments, with notable differences between countries.
                                                                                              Provision of international support
Investment attractiveness is particularly high in China, France,
Germany and the UK. Green bonds, while still only a small part                                Key to building trust and faith in the UNFCCC negotiations
of the G20 debt market, have shown strong growth rates in                                     between developed and developing nations is the provision
recent years, particularly in China.                                                          of international climate finance. The G20 countries with
                                                                                              obligations under the UNFCCC include some of the biggest
Global capacity for renewable energy production has
                                                                                              contributors of international public finance to developing
increased faster than ever in 2016, and thanks to significant
                                                                                              countries. Japan, France, Germany, UK and the US each
price drops lower investments were needed than in the
                                                                                              provided between US$ 8.4 billion and US$ 1.2 billion per
previous year.10 Overall more green capacity was added than
                                                                                              year in 2013-2014 amounting to between 0.2 and 0.02% of
brown.
                                                                                              GDP. Australia, Canada and Italy provided less climate finance
The emissions intensity of electricity production from                                        during this period, both in absolute terms and relative to
capacity that was installed in 2016 indicates how green or                                    GDP. President Trump has announced the US will cease its
brown recent investments have been. For G20 countries that                                    funding altogether.
mainly installed renewables or other low-carbon sources,
the average emissions intensity of new investments in the
power sector ranges between 0 to 0.2 tCO2/MWh, e.g. in Italy,
France, Germany, and the US. Australia and South Africa also
had a low emissions intensity in 2016, but added significant
coal capacity in the years prior to 2016. Countries with a high
share of new capacity from emissions-intensive coal (often
alongside investments in renewables) are in the order of 0.5
to 0.8 tCO2/MWh, such as China, India, Korea and Indonesia.
Saudi Arabia has an equally high emissions intensity with
added oil and gas capacity.
Public institutions are lagging behind: G20 countries’ public
finance institutions, such as national and international
development banks, majority state-owned banks and export
credit agencies, spent over US$ 88 billion on average annually
on coal, oil and gas projects between 2013 and 2014.11 Among
G20 countries, the highest levels of public finance for fossil fuels
come from Japan and China, who provided about US$ 19 billion
and US$ 17 billion a year between 2013 and 2014, respectively.

9) Bhattacharya, A., Meltzer, JP., Oppenheim, J., Qureshi, Z. & Stern, N. (2016): “Delivering on sustainable infrastructure for better development and better climate. Brookings
    Institution”, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/global_122316_delivering-on-sustainable-infrastructure.pdf
10) Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF (2017), “Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2017”, http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-
    energy-investment-2017
11) Bast, E., Doukas, A., Pickard, S., van der Burg, L., Whitley, S. (2015): “Empty Promises. G20 Subsidies to Oil, Gas and Coal Production.”, https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/
    files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/9958.pdf                                                                                                                               9
BROWN TO GREEN The G20 transition to a low-carbon economy | 2017 - Climate Transparency
BROWN TO GREEN | 2017

     COUNTRY OVERVIEW 12

                  ARGENTINA                                                                                  BRAZIL
     Argentina’s performance rates medium in the category of                                   Brazil heads the G20 rating on performance of greenhouse
     greenhouse gas emissions per capita and low in the category                               gas emissions per capita, taking into account the trend and
     of energy use per capita compared to other G20 countries.                                 level, also in relation to a "well below 2°C" benchmark. Brazil’s
     The share of renewables in Argentina’s energy supply is above                             performance in energy use per capita rates medium. Its share
     G20 average, with an upward trend in absolute renewable                                   of renewable energy is by far the highest in the G20 (38%).
     energy supply. Investment attractiveness for renewable                                    Brazil’s investment attractiveness for renewable energy is in
     energy is in the middle range of the G20.                                                 the middle field of the G20. Economic recession and political
     After a long period of virtually no climate policy activity, and                          instability have led to a sharp decline in energy demand
                                                                                               causing the A-3 wind and solar auction in December 2016 to
     an election, Argentina is now catching up. A discussion on
                                                                                               be cancelled. The end of financing of oil and coal-fired power
     the long-term strategy has started, as Argentina remains one
                                                                                               plants by the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) will have
     of the few G20 countries without a national climate strategy
                                                                                               an effect on future investments.
     beyond its NDC. A new renewable energy law, two successful,
     large-scale renewable energy tender rounds in 2016, coupled                               National experts rate Brazil’s policy performance high: while
                                                                                               acknowledging developments in renewable energy and the
     with a gradual phase-out of fossil fuel consumption subsidies,
                                                                                               forest sector, they demand more ambitious emissions and
     show a fresh commitment to clean technologies.
                                                                                               efficiency targets. A plan for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies
     Argentina has been heavily investing in the exploration and                               and an effective carbon price signal are still missing. Brazil’s
     development of new reserves of oil and gas in recent years. It                            fossil fuel subsidies amounted to US$ 27 billion in 2014 (one
     separately provides financing through its public institutions,                            of the highest levels of support in the G20). Financing of fossil
     which spent, on average, US$ 2 billion on fossil fuels a year                             fuel projects through public institutions was, on average, US$
     between 2013 and 2014. Argentina‘s experts continue to rate                               3 billion a year in 2013 and 2014.
     their country’s policy performance in many sectors as low, and
     have demanded more ambitious and sector-specific targets.
                                                                                                             CANADA
                                                                                               Canada performs very low in the two categories of
                  AUSTRALIA                                                                    greenhouse gas emissions and energy use per capita – it has
                                                                                               the highest greenhouse gas emissions per capita and the
     Australia’s performance in the greenhouse gas emissions                                   highest energy use per capita in the G20. While hydropower
     per capita category rates medium. Its performance for all                                 dominates its power sector, Canada has the G20’s second-
     other decarbonisation indicators is low – or even very low.                               highest rate of new wind energy installations.
     Australia has the fifth highest share of coal in energy supply                            Experts rate the climate policy performance of Canada’s
     in the G20, and it continues to subsidise the production and                              government medium. They give credit to their government for
     consumption of fossil fuels. Yet, its investment attractiveness                           developing the Pan-Canadian Framework on Climate Change
     for renewable energy ranks in the higher middle range. In                                 and Clean Growth that sends a signal for a strengthened
     2016, Australia’s investments in renewables reached record                                climate policy.
     numbers.                                                                                  Although Canada has cut some subsidies to exploration, it
     Experts rate Australia’s climate policy performance very                                  continues to subsidise the production and consumption of
     low. They acknowledge Australia’s progress in developing                                  fossil fuels. In addition, Canadian public finance institutions
     enhanced renewable energy schemes and energy efficiency                                   provided, on average, about US$ 3 billion a year for fossil fuels
     programs, particularly in the residential building sector, but                            between 2013 and 2014. While official OECD estimates only
     criticise the government’s overall lack of ambition in climate                            report US$ 114 million of subsidies in 2014, other research
     policies and its continued support for coal.                                              finds that subsidies to coal, oil and gas production, including
                                                                                               through public finance institutions, total US$ 1.6 billion.13
     Australia provides less than 0.01% of GDP on international
     climate finance – it ranks fifth of the eight G20 countries                               Canada's provision of international climate finance is lower
     obliged to provide climate finance.                                                       than 0.01% of its GDP, ranking second-last within the G20
                                                                                               countries obliged to provide climate finance under the
     The Australian climate policy has been characterised by
     significant uncertainties during recent years. The government                             UNFCCC.
     abolished the Australian carbon price mechanism in 2014.

     12) The country overview summarises the main findings of the report. Its main sources are Allianz Climate and Energy Monitor (2017), CAT (2017), CCPI (2017), Climate Bonds
         Initiative (2017), OECD (2017), OCI & NRDC (2017) and RECAI (2017).
     13) Touchette and Whitley (2015), “G20 subsidies to oil, gas and coal production: Canada”, https://www.odi.org/publications/10091-g20-subsidies-oil-gas-coal-production-canada

10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

                                                                                         European Commission has repeatedly asked Member States
             CHINA                                                                       to phase out fossil fuel subsidies by 2020, and they have
                                                                                         committed to developing plans to do so. The EU has also
China’s performance rates low in the categories of greenhouse
                                                                                         committed to remove subsidies to hard coal mining by
gas emissions per capita, energy intensity of the economy,
                                                                                         2018. However, the EU has not established a mechanism for
carbon intensity of the energy sector, energy use per capita
                                                                                         tracking progress on these pledges.
and share of coal in energy supply.
Yet experts rate its current policy performance high compared
to other G20 countries. On an international level, China has                                          FRANCE
assumed a strong leadership role. National experts stress
                                                                                         France’s performance in the greenhouse gas emissions per
China’s rapid expansion of renewable energy and the
                                                                                         capita category is very high. It has the third lowest level of
possibility of CO2 emissions peaking before 2030, earlier than
                                                                                         emissions per capita in the G20, with a decreasing trend
planned. The country is swiftly decommissioning coal power
                                                                                         during recent years. The country performs high in the
plants and aims to increase its renewable energy capacity by
                                                                                         category energy use per capita.
38% above 2015 levels by 2020. China‘s coal use started to
                                                                                         Experts give France a high score for its policy performance.
decline from 2014, and it is believed this trend will continue.
                                                                                         They expect President Macron to uphold the targets set
China has the highest subsidies for electric cars within the G20.
                                                                                         by the previous administration. France is one of the few
China rates as having one of the G20’s highest levels of                                 G20 countries that has submitted a long-term emissions-
investment attractiveness for renewable energy. The first                                development strategy to the UNFCCC, and has a national
Chinese green bonds were issued in late 2015, but substantial                            strategy for near-zero energy buildings (as part of EU policies).
growth has since made China 2016’s largest single green                                  France is one of the G20 countries that is highly attractive to
bond issuing country.                                                                    renewable energy investment. It aims for a decarbonisation
However, Chinese public finance institutions spent US$ 16                                of its electricity sector by 2050, although its renewable energy
billion – the second highest amount in the G20 – on fossil fuel                          target remains relatively unambitious. France continues to
projects between 2013 and 2014. A change in fiscal policies is                           support fossil fuels, most notably through consumption
still needed: the Chinese government continues to subsidise its                          subsidies for diesel.
fossil fuel industry, including coal. Encouragingly, China plans                         France is a frontrunner in green finance: it has the highest
to implement a national Emissions Trading System in 2017, in                             market penetration of green bonds within the G20. In early
addition to the pilot ETS’s now running in several regions. China                        2017, it issued its first green sovereign bond at EUR 7 billion.
reports increasing provision of international public finance to a                        France is also the G20’s second largest donor of bilateral
number of developing countries, although annual data on the                              climate finance relative to GDP.
scale or nature of such contribution is not available.

                                                                                                      GERMANY
             EUROPEAN UNION
                                                                                         Germany ranks relatively low in the indicator for the level of
The European Union rates high in the categories of green-                                greenhouse gas emissions per capita due to its high share
house gas emissions per capita and energy use per capita.                                of coal in energy supply.14 It has a medium score in the
Experts rate its climate policy performance medium. The EU                               energy use per capita category. Its absolute coal supply has
and many of its member states are currently failing to deliver                           increased in recent years by 11% (2009-2014). It continues
on their mitigation targets. According to experts, policies are                          to provide significant subsidies to coal and, while it plans to
not ambitious enough to stay well below the limit of 2°C or                              end subsidies to coal production by the end of 2018, it has
1.5°C warming. Nevertheless, the EU‘s role in the negotiations                           recently introduced new subsidies for coal-fired power.15
leading to the Paris Agreement and especially its reaction                               Germany’s public investment to fossil fuels was, on average,
to the US's exit from the accord indicates that the EU can                               about US$ 3 billion a year between 2013 and 2014.
assume a leadership role.                                                                Experts rate Germany’s policy performance high, but point to
The EU has been the largest issuer of green bonds (US$ 76                                the need to improve its sectoral targets and to an adequate
billion) breaking new boundaries in 2017 through sovereign                               phase-out for coal. Germany is one of the few G20 countries
issuance, green bond funds and exchange-traded funds.                                    that submitted a long-term low-emission development
Efforts are being made to provide greater price stability                                strategy to the UNFCCC and has a national strategy for near-
and predictability in the EU Emissions Trading System. The                               zero energy buildings (as part of EU policies).

14) Germany’s performance rates high in the overall category of greenhouse gas emissions per capita which is based on three indicators: 1) level of greenhouse gas emissions
    per capita in 2014, 2) recent development of emissions between 2009-2014 and 3) the recent level compared to a well below 2°C pathway. From 2014 onwards there was
    no positive emission trend.
15) Whitley et al. (2017): “Cutting Europe’s Lifelines to Coal”, https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/11494.pdf

                                                                                                                                                                               11
BROWN TO GREEN | 2017

     Investment attractiveness for renewable energy is very
     high in Germany. It has the G20’s highest effective carbon                                            ITALY
     rate, but this is still too low to meet the Paris Agreement
     goals. Germany provides the G20’s third largest amount of                               Italy’s performance in the categories of greenhouse emissions
                                                                                             per capita, and energy use per capita rates very high due to
     international climate finance relative to GDP.
                                                                                             a reduction in emissions and energy use over recent years.
                                                                                             Italy’s share of renewable energy (15%) in energy supply is
                  INDIA                                                                      above the G20 average.
                                                                                             Italy’s investment attractiveness for renewable energy ranks
     India receives high ratings for its performance in the category
                                                                                             in the lower mid-range of G20 countries. Having already
     of greenhouse gas emissions per capita, and very high ratings
                                                                                             surpassed its 2020 target for renewable energy, its future
     in the category of energy use per capita. It has the G20’s lowest
                                                                                             pathway is unclear as its 2030 Energy Strategy is still under
     levels of greenhouse gas emissions and energy use per capita.
                                                                                             preparation. There is no strategy on how Italy plans to
     Despite a growth in renewable energy over recent years,                                 implement competitive bidding for large-scale renewables as
     coal is dominant in India’s primary energy supply above G20                             set by the EU. Little new net renewable energy capacity has
     average. Given the recent transitions in the power sector, India                        been installed since 2013.
     is witnessing an opportunity to stop building any inefficient                           Following a stable period, the amount of support dedicated
     coal power plants till 2022, and add massive renewable                                  to fossil fuel consumption in Italy has also risen sharply since
     based capacity of 175GW by the same year. Its investment                                2012 – to more than US$ 4.6 billion in 2014.
     attractiveness for renewable energy is relatively high. India                           This trend is also reflected in the expert rating of Italy’s
     is the only country in the G20 that has announced to end                                climate policy performance: National experts criticise the
     the sale of fossil fuel cars by 2030, thus out-performing the                           fact that the focus of energy policy is still mainly on fossil
     G20 in the personal transport sector. However, it continues                             fuels. National and international climate policy continues to
     to support consumption of diesel, LPG and kerosene, as well                             be uninspired, and lacks proactivity. Yet, Italy‘s performance
     as production of oil, gas and coal, although the support for                            in hosting the G7 – and prioritising climate protection on the
     coal has been decreasing.                                                               G7 agenda – was seen as a good first step.
                                                                                             Italy provides the G20’s lowest levels of international climate
                  INDONESIA                                                                  finance relative to its GDP.

     Indonesia’s performance rates medium in the category of
     greenhouse gas emissions per capita, and very high in the                                             JAPAN
     category of energy use per capita – it has the G20’s second
                                                                                             Japan’s performance in the category of greenhouse emissions
     lowest level of energy use per capita. Its share of renewables
                                                                                             per capita ranks very low. Its emissions are above the G20
     in energy supply (8.5% in 2014) is above the G20 average.
                                                                                             average and have shown an increasing trend over the last
     There is barely any growth in absolute renewable energy                                 years. In contrast, it performs high in energy use per capita.
     supply and absolute coal supply is increasing.
                                                                                             National experts rank Japan’s policy performance very
     According to national experts, Indonesia has to improve                                 low due to the reactivation of nuclear energy as the main
     its forest protection policies: it has the G20’s highest                                alternative to fossil fuels, instead of sufficiently promoting
     deforestation-related emissions. In addition, support                                   renewable energy.
     schemes for renewable energy in the electricity sector and                              Japan’s investment attractiveness for renewable energy
     a carbon price signal have to be enhanced. In comparison to                             performs in the middle range of the G20. Japan has extended
     other G20 countries, Indonesia’s investment attractiveness                              its feed-in tariff scheme for wind until 2019, further supporting
     for renewable energy is rated low: 2016 saw a small increase                            the strong investments in the technology. Investments
     in installed capacity of geothermal and solar PV. Indonesia’s                           in solar energy may be decreasing after the government
     overall renewable energy capacity remains low. Indonesia                                switched from feed-in tariffs to auctions and a focus on
     lags behind other G20 countries in installed wind and solar PV                          smaller rooftop projects. Japan has two subnational Emission
     capacities, and in attracting major global renewable energy                             Trading Schemes as well as a national carbon tax - in place
     businesses.                                                                             since 2012.
     Indonesia’s fossil fuel subsidies are one of the G20’s highest,                         Japan provides the G20’s highest amount of international climate
     and and represented a substantial part of the government's                              finance relative to GDP – most of it as bilateral funding (including
     budget in 2014. Since 2014, there has been progress in                                  efficient coal technologies). However, Japan also spent the
     phasing out fossil fuel subsidies partly due to fiscal pressures.                       highest amount of public finance on fossil fuels in the G20 –
     On the other hand, Indonesia has plans to expand its coal                               an average of US$ 19 billion a year between 2013 and 2014.
     plant construction.16                                                                   Moreover, the Japanese government provides subsidies to oil

     16) CAT (2015): “The Coal Gap: planned coal-fired power plants inconsistent with 2°C and threaten achievements of INDCs, http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/
         publications/briefing_papers/CAT_Coal_Gap_Briefing_COP21.pdf

12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

and gas production, mainly to Japanese companies operating                                 Mexico has recently improved its support policy for renewable
overseas.                                                                                  energy. Its investment attractiveness for renewables is in the
                                                                                           middle range of the G20 due to its low market absorption
              KOREA, REP.                                                                  capacity and general investment conditions. A carbon tax was
                                                                                           introduced in 2014, which applies to fossil fuels but exempts
The Republic of Korea performs very low in the category of                                 natural gas. In 2016, it announced plans to establish a national
greenhouse gas emissions per capita and the category of                                    carbon market in 2018, and expressed a strong interest in a
energy use per capita. Current levels of both categories are                               North American carbon market. However, it continues to
above the G20 average and too high compared to a well                                      subsidise its oil and gas industry through tax breaks and
below 2°C benchmark. Its share of coal in energy supply is                                 budgetary support. Although without obligation, it has made
about 36%, above G20 average.                                                              a voluntary contribution to the Green Climate Fund.
Experts rate its climate policy performance low. Yet, Korea’s
new president has announced greater efforts in reducing
greenhouse gas emissions and promoting renewable energy.                                                 RUSSIA
He has temporarily closed ten coal-fired plants.17                                         Russia performs comparatively low in the categories of
The Republic of Korea’s investment attractiveness for                                      greenhouse gas emissions per capita and energy use per
renewable energy ranks in the G20’s lower middle field. Total                              capita. It has the fifth highest level of greenhouse gas
wind and solar PV capacity increased in 2016. Overall, levels                              emissions per capita in the G20.
of market capacity and maturity for renewables remain low,                                 Experts rate Russia’s climate policy performance low. They
with a marginal share of renewables in the generation mix.                                 criticise the fact that the focus of its national energy strategy
The Republic of Korea spent the third largest amount of public                             is still on fossil fuels and, while there are some approaches
finance in the G20 on fossil fuels – an average of US$ 10 billion                          to improve renewable energy and energy efficiency,
a year between 2013 and 2014. Separately, the government                                   implementation is still slow.
subsidises fossil fuels, mainly through tax breaks for gasoline.                           The government provides significant subsidies to oil and
While the Republic of Korea planned to phase out subsidies                                 gas producers, and has stalled plans to reduce consumption
to coal production by 2020, it has introduced new subsidies
                                                                                           subsidies by raising fuel prices. Separately, it provided an
for oil refineries.
                                                                                           average of US$ 7 billion a year of public finance for fossil fuel
While the Republic of Korea has no obligation to provide                                   energy between 2013 and 2014.
climate finance under the UNFCCC, it reports US$ 0.19 billion
                                                                                           The investment attractiveness for renewable energy in
in support to other developing countries and has supported
                                                                                           the country is low with a negligible amount of installed
the Green Climate Fund (GCF) with pledges of US$ 100
                                                                                           renewables capacity.
million.

              MEXICO                                                                                     SAUDI ARABIA
                                                                                           Saudi Arabia performs very low in the categories of
Mexico has a relatively high performance in the categories
                                                                                           greenhouse gas emissions and energy use per capita. It has
of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and energy use per
capita. Its share and growth rates of renewable energy re-                                 the G20’s second highest energy use per capita.
main below the G20 average, despite significantly increasing                               Saudi Arabia’s climate policy performance assessed by
the amount of renewable energy capacity installed in 2016                                  national experts is rated very low. They stress that the
compared to previous years.                                                                government continues to rely on its oil reserves instead of
                                                                                           exploiting the high potential for renewable energy.
Mexico is one of the few G20 countries that has submitted
a long-term low-emissions development strategy to the                                      Saudi Arabia’s investment attractiveness for renewable energy
UNFCCC. Unlike most G20 countries, it has no energy                                        is very low and in 2016 no new renewable energy capacity
efficiency standards in the industry sector. Overall, Mexico                               was installed. Saudi Arabia recently announced it would seek
receives a positive policy performance rating from national                                to invest US$ 30-50 billion in renewables by 2030, but there
experts, but they criticise its mitigation strategy for 2050 for                           are doubts whether it can achieve these plans.18
not containing an implementation roadmap, and the fact                                     Saudi Arabia provides the largest amount of fossil fuel
that it does not provide clear measures and actions of how to                              subsidies in the G20. Separately, it spent an average of US$
comply with the emission reduction targets set in its Climate                              7 billion of public finance on fossil fuels a year between 2013
Change Law.                                                                                and 2014 – the fourth highest amount in the G20.

17) Reuters (2017): “South Korea plans energy U-turn away from coal, nuclear”, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-politics-energy-idUSKBN18V0EH
18) Saha, S. & Livingston, D. (2017): “Saudi Arabia’s Renewable Revolution”, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/saudi-arabia/2017-06-06/saudi-arabias-renewables-revolution

                                                                                                                                                                                   13
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

                                                                                             The government has failed to deliver a policy framework
                  SOUTH AFRICA                                                               for renewables from 2017 onward; the UK Treasury expects
                                                                                             investment in renewables to fall by 96% by 2020. The
     South Africa’s performance ranks medium in the category
                                                                                             continuation of several other important policies, including
     of greenhouse gas emissions per capita. Its emissions per
                                                                                             zero carbon homes, also seems to be at risk.
     capita have increased slightly since 2009. South Africa ranks
     medium for its energy use per capita.                                                   The investment attractiveness for renewables in the UK is
                                                                                             high. Yet, this is expected to decline due to the recent rollback
     Despite an increase in absolute renewable energy supply,
     South Africa has the highest share of coal in the G20.                                  on policies supporting renewable energy. The UK is one of
                                                                                             the few G20 countries with no renewable energy target
     South Africa is one of the few G20 countries that has no
                                                                                             beyond 2020.
     emissions performance standards for cars. Yet, national
     experts rate South Africa’s policy performance as high,                                 By reducing taxes and increasing subsidies to oil and gas
     valuing the sectoral approaches for achieving its national                              production, the UK is the only G7 country that has sharply
     targets, as well as its contribution to the international climate                       increased fossil fuel support in recent years. However, the UK
     negotiations. South Africa aims to implement a carbon price,                            claims it has no fossil fuel subsidies, basing that claim on its
     but its start date has been delayed.                                                    own definition.
     South Africa’s investment attractiveness is ranked in the                               The UK provides the G20’s fourth highest level of international
     middle range of the G20. Given the current unwillingness                                public climate finance relative to GDP, and the highest
     of South Africa’s national utility Eskom to sign further Power                          amount through multilateral climate funds. Between 2013
     Purchase Agreements, uncertainty among investors remains.                               and 2015, however, it has spent an average of about US$ 6
     The government provides tax breaks for some liquid fuels                                billion a year of public finance on fossil fuels.
     users, and subsidises some fossil fuel exploration and
     production.
                                                                                                           UNITED STATES
                  TURKEY                                                                     The United States performs very low in the category of
                                                                                             greenhouse gas emissions and low in the category of
     Turkey performs medium among G20 countries in the                                       energy use per capita. It has the G20’s fourth highest level of
     categories of greenhouse gas emissions and energy use per                               greenhouse gas emissions per capita and the highest level of
     capita. It has the sixth highest share of coal in energy supply                         energy use per capita.
     in the G20, with an increasing trend.
                                                                                             After the change in the federal government, national experts
     Experts rank Turkey’s national climate policy and international                         have rated both the US' national and international climate
     policy last and second to last in the G20. They criticise the                           policies down. The US now ranks at the bottom of the G20.
     lack of Turkey’s energy efficiency targets and remark that the                          If all the Trump administration’s announcements and budget
     funding of most of the climate protection projects comes
                                                                                             cuts continue being implemented, support schemes for
     from international institutions rather than national budgets.
                                                                                             renewables would be reduced. The announced exit from the
     The investment attractiveness for renewable energy in Turkey                            Paris Agreement is seen as an immense step backwards.
     is very low. Turkey increased both its solar PV and wind
                                                                                             The investment attractiveness for renewable energy in the
     capacity in 2016. Yet, recently the government provided
     significant subsidies to fossil fuels, mainly to the coal industry,                     US is still high, but has been marked by a downward trend.
     including through the state-owned coal company, which has                               There is uncertainty in the US about possible reductions in
     created uncertainties about the future of renewables. Turkey                            the Investment Tax Credit and Production Tax Credit and after
     plans a significant expansion of coal-fired power plants.19                             the new US administration announced it will review – and
                                                                                             repeal – the Clean Power Plan. Such recent developments
                                                                                             add to existing federal tax breaks that subsidise various types
                  UK                                                                         of offshore oil and gas production.
     The UK performs very high in the categories of greenhouse                               The US spent an average of US$ 4 billion of public finance a
     gas emissions and energy use per capita – both levels have                              year on fossil fuels between 2013 and 2014. Despite a decline
     decreased during recent years. The UK has had one of the                                in coal-fired power, federal tax breaks support various types of
     highest recent growth rates in absolute renewable energy                                offshore oil and gas production. Trump also threatens the US’s
     supply, although its share of renewable energy in energy                                position as fourth highest provider of international bilateral
     supply remains below G20 average.                                                       climate finance and the remaining US$ 2 billion of its Green
     Experts rate the UK’s climate policy performance as low.                                Climate Fund Pledge.

     19) CAT (2015): “The Coal Gap: planned coal-fired power plants inconsistent with 2°C and threaten achievements of INDCs, http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/
         publications/briefing_papers/CAT_Coal_Gap_Briefing_COP21.pdf

14
p

          INTRODUCTION

           WHY THE G20 COUNTRIES   p MUST MAKEp A RAPID TRANSITION TO
           LOW-CARBON
REENHOUSE GAS (GHG) CLIMATEECONOMIES
                            POLICY    FINANCING    DECARBONISATION
ISSIONS DEVELOPMENT                      PERFORMANCE                                      THE TRANSITION
          Keeping global warming “well below” 2°C requires an early                                       Green report therefore describes the emissions development
          peak in global greenhouse gas emissions around 2020, a                                          in the G20 member states, and provides a comprehensive
          subsequent rapid fall in emissions, net zero emissions in the                                   overview on 1) their climate policy performance, 2) their
          middle of the second half of the century, and net zero global                                   provision of financing and advancing a financial framework for
          CO2 emissions by roughly 2060. For limiting warming to 1.5°C,                                   the transition and 3) their decarbonisation developments.
          CO2 emissions have to be net zero by roughly 2050.20 This                                       A country’s policy performance shows the actions taken by
          requires major transformational changes, particularly of our                                    its government. Policies influence finance flows: coherent
          energy and transport systems.                                                                   climate policies, well-aligned investment frameworks and
          Greenhouse gas emissions are the cause of climate change, but                                   green finance instruments are essential to steer investment
          they have only limited predictive value in assessing whether a                                  towards a low-emissions, resilient economy and determine
          country is transitioning to a low-carbon economy. This Brown to                                 the degree of decarbonisation.

                               CLIMATE POLICY                                                     FINANCING
                               PERFORMANCE                       p                                THE TRANSITION                 p                             DECARBONISATION

          20) Rogelj et al. (2015), “Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection”, Environ. Res. Lett. 10 (2015) 105007 and Rogelj, J., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C.,
              Kriegler, E., Schaeffer, M., Krey, V., & Riahi, K. (2015): “Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C”, Nature Climate Change, 5(6),
              519–527, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2572

                                                                                                                                                                                                    15
GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENT

     GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS:
     STILL RISING, BUT ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS
     HAVE STALLED
     Global greenhouse gas emissions need to reach zero in the                           In half the G20 member countries, greenhouse gas emissions
     middle of the second half of this century.                                          per capita are no longer increasing.
     The G20 countries’ greenhouse gas emissions21 grew by                               Recently published numbers suggest that total global energy-
     34% between 1990 and 2014.22 Yet, in the same period their                          related CO2 emissions have stalled for three consecutive years
     economies grew more, by nearly 117%, demonstrating that                             (2014–2016).23
     G20 countries are using energy resources more efficiently
     than in the past.

     21) Including LULUCF
     22) PRIMAP (2017), https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/climate-impacts-and-vulnerabilities/research/rd2-flagship-projects/gia/primap/primap
     23) REN21, 2017: “Renewables 2017 Global Status Report”, http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2017/chapters/chapter_01/chapter_01/

16
GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENT

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS PER CAPITA

Level 2014 (tCO2e/cap)                                                               +7.7%    Trend: G20 average

    25
                                                      Canada
                                                                                                  Saudi Arabia
                                     Australia
    20
                                                                USA

                                                                                Russia
    15

                                                                                Indonesia           Korea, Rep.        Japan
                                                                Argentina
    10                                           Germany                                                                       China
                                                                       South
                                                                                                                                         8.3
                     United Kingdom              EU
                                                                       Africa
                                                       Brazil                                                                            tCO2e/cap
                     France              Italy                                   Mexico               Turkey                                  Level:
     5
                                                                                                                                              G20 average

                                                                                                                   India

     0
         -30%                     -20%                -10%              0                   10%              20%                30%    Trend
                                                                                                                                       2009-2014
                                                                                                                                       (%)
Source: CCPI 2017; PRIMAP, 2017

                                                                                                                                                            17
CLIMATE POLICY PERFORMANCE

     HIGH ON POLICY DEVELOPMENT,
     LOW ON AMBITION AND IMPLEMENTATION
     An evaluation of the G20 climate policy performance –        R Most G20 countries have climate policies in place in the
     looking at policies, targets against benchmarks and expert     power, transport, building, industry and forestry sectors;
     opinions – reveals:                                          R Yet, the majority of G20 country climate policies in different
                                                                    sectors are not sufficiently ambitious to reach well below
                                                                    2°C, let alone 1.5°C targets;
                                                                  R The mitigation targets of G20 countries (2020 targets and
                                                                    the first NDCs) are inadequate to limit global warming as
                                                                    required by the Paris Agreement;
                                                                  R Many of the G20 national experts have ranked their
                                                                    country’s performance in international policy processes
                                                                    (being constructive in the international climate
                                                                    negotiations) higher than their national climate policy
                                                                    performance at home, where they criticise inadequate
                                                                    ambition and implementation.

18
CLIMATE POLICY PERFORMANCE

G20 CLIMATE POLICY PERFORMANCE RATING

                                                     GHG emissions target for 2050

                                                                                                                                                                Efficient residential buildings
                                                                                                                                Efficient light duty vehicles

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Renewable Energy (RISE)
                           Long-term low-emissions

                                                                                     Renewable energy in the

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Expert evaluation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Energy Efficiency (RISE)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    of climate policy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Reducing deforestation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 NDC Evaluation (CAT)
                           development strategy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (CCPI 2017)
                                                                                                                                                                                                  in industry sector
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Energy efficiency
                                                                                                               Coal phase-out
                                                                                     power sector

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          inter-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                national national

Argentina                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 53                         44

Australia                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 73                         72

Brazil                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    67                         51

Canada                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    87                         85

China                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     74                         69
European
Union (28)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               n.a.                       n.a.

France                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    81                         76

Germany                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   90                         77

India                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     67                         60

Indonesia                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 55                         34

Italy                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     85                         72

Japan                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     78                         68

Korea, Rep.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               72                         79

Mexico                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    61                         70
Russian
Federation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                33                         50

Saudi Arabia                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              68                         69

South Africa                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              72                         83

Turkey                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    71                         65
United
Kingdom                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   89                         77

United States                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             85                         88

Source: Own evaluation                 low performance                                                                                                                                                                                           very low               low (Score: 0-33)                                      inadequate
based on CAT, 2016; CCPI               medium performance                                                                                                                                                                                        low                    medium (Score: 34-66)                                  medium
2017 - G20 Edition; RISE               high performance                                                                                                                                                                                          medium                 high (Score: 67-100)                                   sufficient
index, 2017; CAT, 2017                                                                                                                                                                                                                           high                                                                          role model
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 very high
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