February 2023 - Market Update

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February 2023 - Market Update
February 2023 – Market Update
February 2023 - Market Update
Forward Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are
not limited to, statements about proposed or pending common dividends, special dividends, share repurchases, future transactions or strategic plans and other
statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management
and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: the economic impact and operating impacts of the
coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, political and economic instability and changes in government policies in Brazil and other countries in which we have operations; the
predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive
and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product
innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks
associated with Mosaic’s international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the performance of the Wa’ad Al Shamal
Phosphate Company (also known as MWSPC), the future success of current plans for MWSPC and any future changes in those plans; difficulties with realization of the
benefits of our natural gas based pricing ammonia supply agreement with CF Industries, Inc., including the risk that the cost savings initially anticipated from the
agreement may not be fully realized over its term or that the price of natural gas or ammonia during the term are at levels at which the pricing is disadvantageous to
Mosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and
other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas
regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into
the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic’s operations are
adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental
permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s processes for managing its
strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or
Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management’s current estimates,
including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, or the
costs of the MWSPC; reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial
assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s potash mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including
potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including
reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. The declarations and payment of future dividends and special dividends
remain at the discretion of the Board of Directors.
February 2023 - Market Update
Phosphate and Potash Prices

Prices have receded from their post-invasion spike and we are seeing signs of stabilization in some
geographies. While falling nitrogen may have some spillover near-term, upside potential exists for 2023.

$/MT             Global DAP/MAP Benchmark Prices                                   $/MT                        Potash Prices
                                 Published Spot Prices                                                      Published Spot Prices
1,400                                                                              1,400
                DAP fob NOLA                 DAP c&f India                                     c&f Brazil                 c&f SE Asia
                MAP fob NOLA                 MAP c&f Brazil                                    fob NOLA                   delivered Cornbelt
1,200                                                                              1,200

1,000                                                                              1,000

 800                                                                                800

 600                                                                                600

 400                                                                                400

 200                                                                                200

   0                                                                                  0
   Jan-20        Jul-20       Jan-21       Jul-21       Jan-22   Jul-22   Jan-23      Jan-20   Jul-20       Jan-21   Jul-21   Jan-22    Jul-22   Jan-23

Source: Argus, Fertecon, CRU, ICIS, Green Markets, Mosaic
Data through February 16, 2023
Ag Market Update
Still-Elevated Agriculture Prices

 Ag commodities continue to be elevated from a historical standpoint, despite giving back war premium.

                    Indexed Daily Close of Front Month Contract                                                 Indexed Daily Close of Front Month Contract
           400                                                                                     400
                        Corn      Soy           Wheat            Palm Oil                                            Coffee            Rice        Sugar           Cotton
           350                                                                                     350

           300                                                                                     300

           250                                                                                     250

           200                                                                                     200

           150                                                                                     150

           100                                                                                     100

            50                                                                                      50
             Jan-20     Jul-20   Jan-21      Jul-21     Jan-22        Jul-22   Jan-23                Jan-20        Jul-20     Jan-21      Jul-21   Jan-22        Jul-22     Jan-23

             Commodity             Current Price             YTD               Y-o-Y                     Commodity               Current Price             YTD              Y-o-Y
             Corn                         $6.78bu                0%             +4%                      Coffee                         $1.89/lb       +13%                 -33%
             Soybean                    $15.27/bu            +1%                -4%                      Rice                      $17.52/cwt              -3%            +17%
             Wheat (HRW)                  $9.07/bu           +2%               +10%                      Sugar                     $21.41/cwt              +7%            +17%
             Palm Oil               MYR 4,095/t              -2%               -31%                      Cotton                    $80.25/cwt              -4%              -34%

 Source: CME, MDEX, NYMEX; Data through February 17, 2023
Solid Agricultural Fundamentals
Slow down in yield growth in recent years has pushed our stocks-to-use ratio metric below 15%, a circa
25-year low (and unlikely to recover in a single season).

MMT                                                               Grain and Oilseed Stocks                                               Percent
                                                                       World Less China
475                                                                                                                                       22%
                    Stocks             Percent of Use
450                                                                                                                                       21%
425                                                                                                                                       20%
400                                                                                                                                       19%
375                                                                                                                                       18%
350                                                                                                                                       17%
325                                                                                                                                       16%
300                                                                                                                                       15%
275                                                                                                                                       14%
250                                                                                                                                       13%
225                                                                                                                                       12%
200                                                                                                                                       11%
       00     01     02      03   04     05    06       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22F

Source: USDA February 2023

Solid Agricultural Fundamentals
  Lower benchmark fertilizer prices, coupled with still-elevated ag commodity prices has made fertilizers
  more affordable and is expected to spur demand as the year progresses.

             North America Plant Nutrient Affordability                                             Brazil Soybean Barter Ratio
                            Ferts Price Index / Crop Price Index                                                     (bag/MT)
 1.60                                                                                25
                              Less Affordable Fertilizers                                                  Less Affordable Fertilizers

 1.00                                                                                15


                                More Affordable Fertilizers                                                 More Affordable Fertilizers
 0.00                                                                                0
        15       16        17        18        19       20      21      22      23        15   16     17        18       19     20        21   22   23
                  Affordability Metric                 Average (2010-present)

Source: Weekly Price Publications, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic
Fertilizer prices as of February 16, 2023
Phosphate Market Update
Global Phosphate Demand
Global shipments declined ~9% in 2022, necessitated by supply disruptions. Moderating prices to incent
demand and our forecast calls for a rebound to 72-75 MMT in 2023, depending on the supply recovery.

Mil Tonnes                                                                 Global Phosphate Shipments






          10             11            12            13             14            15             16            17         18   19   20   21   22E    23F
* NPS products included in this analysis are those with a combined N and P 2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater.
Source: CRU, Mosaic
Phosphate Inventories
             Brazil phosphate inventories receded in Q4, ending the year toward the low end of the historical range.
             India inventories ended the year up slightly year-over-year, but still at a critically low level.

            MMT                   Brazil Phosphate Ending Stocks                                            MMT             India DAP Ending Stocks
            3.0                                                                                             7.0





            0.5                                                                                             1.0

            0.0                                                                                             0.0
                   Jan Feb Mar             Apr May Jun              Jul   Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec                     Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun      Jul   Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

                              Min/Max Range (17-21)                       2022      2021                               Min/Max Range (17-21)         2022       2021

             Source: ANDA, India Department of Fertilizer, Mosaic

Raw Material Costs
Ammonia prices are expected to continue to moderate on improved supplies, while sulphur prices are
expected to remain at the more moderate levels due to both improved supply and reduced demand
Ammonia                                                Raw Material Prices                          Sulphur
$/MT                                                        c&f Tampa                                  $/LT
1,700                                                                                                   800
                                 Ammonia     Sulphur
1,500                                                                                                   700

1,300                                                                                                   600

1,100                                                                                                   500

 900                                                                                                    400

 700                                                                                                    300

 500                                                                                                    200

 300                                                                                                    100

 100                                                                                                    0
   Jan-20                         Jul-20   Jan-21           Jul-21           Jan-22   Jul-22   Jan-23
Source: Argus
Data through February 16, 2023

Potash Market Update
Global Potash Demand

A partial recovery of global shipments is expected in 2023, as Belarussian supply remains constrained

Mil Tonnes                                Global MOP Shipments





        10            11   12   13   14   15     16    17      18     19     20     21     22E    23F

Source: CRU, Mosaic
Potash Inventories
Brazil potash inventories fell in Q4 2022 and ended the year in line with end-2021 level. With demand
expected to recover sharply from last year’s pullback, this bodes well for higher import demand.

Mil Tonnes                               Brazil MOP Ending Stocks





          Jan          Feb   Mar   Apr   May     Jun      Jul      Aug     Sep      Oct     Nov         Dec

                                          2022                  2021

Source: ANDA, Mosaic

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