Housing Market Overview Germany - Big 8 | 2nd half of 2020 Published in March 2021 - JLL
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Housing Market Overview Germany Big 8 | 2nd half of 2020 Published in March 2021
Housing Market Germany
Rental prices and purchase prices drifting further apart – creases in the suburban zones around the Big 8 German
price hikes also in suburban locations cities is almost 50% higher than in the city centres. Irre-
Despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, asking rents on spective of the discernible catch-up processes under way in
the residential property markets have continued to in- the fringe locations around the metropolitan regions, pur-
crease in the cities under review by JLL*. The average year- chase price growth for condominium apartments is still at
on-year growth over the second half of the year was 3.5%, a very high level in the cities themselves.
which is at approximately the same level as 12 months pre- *Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Stuttgart, Leipzig
viously but is considerably below the 5-year average of
4.9% p.a. Conversely, there was another significant increase Population and housing supply
in purchase prices for condominium apartments during the
Inhabitants* Households* Housing stock*
second half of 2020. The increase of 9.3% p.a. at the end of Big 8
(2019) (2019) (2019)
the second half of the year is currently a little below the
Berlin 3,769,500 2,024,900 1,963,400
previous year’s growth of 10.2% p.a., but is above the 5-year
Hamburg 1,899,200 1,046,400 967,500
average of 8.6% p.a. In view of the lack of supply and rising
Munich 1,560,000 798,800 812,000
housing costs, the population influx into the major cities
Cologne 1,091,800 578,300 565,500
has been falling for some time now, and this has been even
Frankfurt 758,600 408,800 377,900
further exacerbated by the COVID-19 movement restric-
Düsseldorf 645,900 337,700 358,900
tions. Moreover, the increasing trend towards working from
Stuttgart 614,600 336,700 316,100
home and the savings in commuting costs have caused the
Leipzig 601,700 331,100 340,200
catchment area around the regional labour and residential
markets to widen, which has mainly benefitted suburban *Estimation
Source: GfK, Einwohnermelderegister, Statistische Ämter der Kommunen, JLL;
areas around the top cities. The average purchase price in- Status: January 2021
Demography and Housing Market
Source: GfK, Einwohnermelderegister,
Statistische Ämter der Kommunen, JLL;
Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 2Residential Transaction Market in Germany
Residential investment market benefits from were already scarce in light of the low interest rate environ-
defensive risk profile in times of crisis ment of the past decade, the large amount of additional li-
With a transaction volume of around €21.7 billion (approxi- quidity coming to the market as part of the emergency pro-
mately 164,500 units) in 2020, the German commercial grammes by governments and central banks has ensured
market for residential property investments registered its that institutional demand has not receded. The increased
second highest transaction volume since records began in interest in residential investments in particular comes as
2005. This was not only the fifth successive year of growth no surprise: low levels of rental voids, stable rental incomes
in the residential investment market, but also a rise com- and long-term growth potential. The defensive risk profile
pared to both the previous year (+9%) and the 5-year aver- has made the residential investment market particularly re-
age (+16%). The general rule of a strong fourth quarter in silient in times of crisis. The housing market has also been
any one year was also applicable in 2020. The investment benefiting from another trend on a totally different level.
volume of €5.2 billion (around 33,100 units) was significantly The immediate structural changes vis-à-vis the employ-
greater than in both previous quarters (+53% above their ment market as a result of the COVID-19 crisis, such as the
combined average). There are a number of reasons for the increased use of home office, has changed the overall con-
good performance over the last year, which had been sig- sciousness of residential property as a consumer good. To-
nificantly impacted by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: gether with the high level of crisis-resistance in the asset
the Coronavirus had the effect of amplifying trends already class, this is another reason for the shifting and increasing
identified before the pandemic struck but also brought demand in the institutional residential investment market.
some new aspects with it. Whilst investment alternatives
Transaction volume by vendor and purchaser Residential property and portfolio transactions*
* incl. forward deals and student housing
Source: JLL; Status: January 2021
Source: JLL; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 3Housing market Berlin
COVID-19 crisis suppresses international ward migration from the previous years and was mainly
migration into the German capital due to the change in international new arrivals. The fall in
Berlin’s population has increased consistently since 2003 population as at mid-year 2020 must be seen in context: by
(430,000 persons, 11.5% between 2003 and 2020). After the this point, the population had fallen by -0.2% year-on-year,
strongest growth of around 60,000 in 2016 mostly due to in- but international inward migration had been seriously af-
ward migration, population growth slowed down in the fol- fected by the COVID-19 movement restrictions. This devel-
lowing years. The reason for this more subdued population opment must be interpreted as being crisis-related and
growth is the fall in population influx. The approximately therefore a short-term effect, and the additional require-
23,200 new arrivals in 2019 was significantly below the in- ment for new housing will remain at a high level (JLL’s re-
quirements analysis based on the intermediate scenario
forecasts an annual requirement for 18,500 new apart-
Housing supply and demand for ments until 2030). With significant increases in completion
new buildings Berlin volumes (19,000 new apartments in 2019 and a rise of 13%
compared to the previous year) and a current completion
level which was last achieved in the German capital at the
end of the 1990s, the supply situation in the city is already
heading in the right direction. However, the introduction of
the rental price cap is affecting the supply in the rental mar-
ket, particularly for existing stock. Many existing apartments
are currently being held back from the market. There were
up to 70% fewer existing rental apartments offered in the
market in 2020 compared to the previous year. And the
supply of new homes may also stagnate in the medium-
term, as it is not only the number of new building permits
issued which is falling (+22,524 in 2019), but the increasing
scarcity of building land is hampering the growth in com-
pletion levels.
*Additional annual need for housing units (includes also apartments in detached
houses) without consideration of current construction deficits.
Source: destatis, JLL; Status: January 2021
Selected developments under constructions
Name Location Residential units Completion date
div. Projekte Wasserstadt Oberhavel Spandau approx. 4,000 as of 2025
Quartier Gut Hellersdorf Hellersdorf approx. 1,250 2023
Mein Falkenberg Falkenberg approx. 1,250 2025
Quartier Friedenauer Höhe Friedenau approx. 1,150 2024
Maximilians Quartier Schmargendorf approx. 973 2022
Source: Thomas Daily, JLL; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Berlin 4Significant rental price increases continue
in the new-build and prime segments
Median asking rents in Berlin rose by a total of 6.0% in the
second half of 2020 compared to the previous year to their
current level of €13.30/sqm/month. The overall growth
Distribution of rental listings by price group across the market was considerably above the previous
year (4.1%) and just below the 5-year average of 7.0% p.a.
Whilst asking rents in the prime (top 10% of all rental offers:
€22.30/sqm/month) and new-build segments (€17.65/sqm/
month) were the principal growth drivers with 11.5% and
10.7% respectively, prices fell in the lower priced segment
(lowest 10% of all rental offers) by 4.2% to €8.00/sqm/month
compared to the previous year. In the same period the
previous year, there had still been growth of 2.1% and the
5-year average was 5.6% p.a. The latest developments are
likely to have been affected by the rental price cap which
went into its next phase in the second half of 2020, and it is
now possible that rents may reduce in some cases in certain
properties, even for existing tenancies. In an analysis of loca-
tions, the strongest growth in asking rents was observed in
the suburban areas of Spandau, Marzahn and Lichtenberg.
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
Asking rental prices Berlin Development of rental prices
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Berlin 5Asking rental prices Berlin
A 114
A 10
B 109
Pankow
Reinickendorf
B2
B 158
A 105
B 96
A 111
Spandau Ring (Berlin)
Mitte B 96a Lichtenberg
Marzahn-
B5
Hellersdorf
Friedrichshain- B 1/5
B 1/2/5
B 2/5 Kreuzberg
Charlottenburg- B 179
Wilmersdorf
A 104 A 103 Tempelhof-
A 100 A 113
Schöneberg
A 102
A 115
Neukölln Treptow-
Steglitz-
Köpenick
Zehlendorf
B1
B 101
Flughafen
Berlin-Schönefeld
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Rent Level
Average in €/sqm/month on postcode level
< 9.50 13.50 < 15.50 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
9.50 < 11.50 >= 15.50 Green Area Other Area
11.50 < 13.50
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Berlin 6High price growth continues in the new-build segment,
lower priced segment continues to catch up
Average asking prices in the Berlin market for condomini-
um apartments rose by 6.0% in the second half of 2020
compared to the same period the previous year to their
Distribution of condo listings by price group current level of €4,980/sqm. The growth rate therefore
slowed down compared to both the previous year (8.4%)
and the 5-year average (10.1% p.a.). The reduced momen-
tum was most noticeable in the prime segment (€7,490/
sqm) where asking prices rose by just 0.7% compared to
the previous year’s growth of 7.7% (5-year average: 9.9%
p.a.). The growth rate in the new-build segment was similar
to the previous year’s level. Asking prices were €6,250/sqm
in the second half of the year, a year-on-year increase of
4.3%. However, even in this segment there was a fall in
growth compared to the 5-year average (9.5% p.a.). None-
theless, in the absolute prime segment it was noticed that
there was a further spread of prices up to €15,000/sqm. The
greatest hike over the course of the year was in the lower
priced segment (lowest 10% of all purchase offers: €3,220/
sqm) with a growth of 7.0%, which once again indicates a
shift of investor focus towards the suburban locations.
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
Purchase price bands for condominiums Berlin Development of purchase prices for condominiums
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Berlin 7Asking condominium prices Berlin
A 114
A 10
B 109
Pankow
Reinickendorf
B2
B 158
A 105
B 96
A 111
Spandau Ring (Berlin)
Mitte B 96a Lichtenberg
Marzahn-
B5
Hellersdorf
Friedrichshain- B 1/5
B 1/2/5
B 2/5 Kreuzberg
Charlottenburg- B 179
Wilmersdorf
A 104 A 103 Tempelhof-
A 100 A 113
Schöneberg
A 102
A 115
Neukölln Treptow-
Steglitz-
Köpenick
Zehlendorf
B1
B 101
Flughafen
Berlin-Schönefeld
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Condominium price level
Average in €/sqm on postcode level
< 2,500 4,500 < 5,500 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
2,500 < 3,500 >= 5,500 Green Area Other Area
3,500 < 4,500
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Berlin 8Housing market Düsseldorf
Rise in the number of new building permits results land because of the relatively high and rising prices for
in increased construction backlog sites. However, the trend was also the consequence of
After the record number of new completions of around qualitative shifts in demand: as the state capital and an
2,800 in 2017, the number of new homes fell for two years important media and insurance location, Düsseldorf has
in succession to a total of 1,776 in 2019. This was due to experienced a consistently high level of population influx
the lack of available building land in Düsseldorf’s market, from households in the 18-30-year age group (5-year aver-
which has resulted in a more intensive development of age: 6,030 p.a.). As a result, the population grew by 0.56%
year-on-year in 2019 to a new total of around 645,900.
However, the dynamic population growth has recently
Housing supply and demand for slowed as a result of the absolute low level of net inward
new buildings Düsseldorf migration and the COVID-19 movement restrictions. None-
theless, it is anticipated that there will be a continuing re-
quirement for additional housing over the coming years.
On the one hand, there will still be qualitative shifts in de-
mand and on the other, the highly urbanised suburban ar-
eas around Düsseldorf offer less expansion potential than
many other regions. The intermediate forecast scenario
estimates an additional annual requirement for around
1,840 residential units in the period up to 2030 (the opti-
mistic scenario anticipates this at around 2,990 new units).
With a total of 3,908 building permits issued in 2019 (in-
crease of around 30% year-on-year), the construction
backlog has recently increased significantly, which means
that the level of completions is likely to increase in the
medium-term.
*Additional annual need for housing units (includes also apartments in detached
houses) without consideration of current construction deficits.
Source: destatis, JLL; Status: January 2021
Selected developments under constructions
Name Location Residential units Completion date
Le Quartier Central Stadtmitte approx. 2,300 2022
Vierzig549 Heerdt approx. 1,000 2025
UpperNord Tower Mörsenbroich approx. 430 2022
Wohnquartier Schöffenhöfe Oberbilk approx. 370 2022
Wohnturm Niederkasseler Lohweg 20 Lörick approx. 220 2023
Source: Thomas Daily, JLL; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Düsseldorf 9Significantly stronger rental price growth in the new-
build segment now dominating the overall trend
There was a rise in asking rents of 3.9% in Düsseldorf in the
second half of 2020 compared to the same period the pre-
vious year, which means that overall market growth had
Distribution of rental listings by price group picked up pace again after the growth of 1.2% points less in
the previous year and a lower 5-year average of 3.8% p.a.
The average rent is currently €12.00/sqm/month. However,
the prime rental price segment contributed little to this
growth over the second half of 2020, as asking rents in this
category had stagnated at €17.20/sqm/month compared
to the same period the previous year. Conversely, average
rents rose by 2.8% in the lower price segment to €9.15/
sqm/month. The principal driver of rental growth was the
new-build segment with asking rents (€14.20/sqm/month)
showing the strongest growth at 5.2%, around 170% higher
than the 5-year average of 1.9% p.a. In an analysis of loca-
tions, the focus of rental price growth was in District 5
around the airport, whilst in other areas rents tended to
stagnate or even fall in some cases.
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
Rental price bands for listed apartments Düsseldorf Development of rental prices
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Düsseldorf 10Asking rental prices Düsseldorf
Kaiserswerth
B 8n
Flughafen
Düsseldorf
A 44
B8
A 52
Rath
B 7/8
Gerresheim
Altstadt B7
Oberkassel
Flingern
L85
Unterbilk
B1 B 326 Eller
L404
A 46
Benrath
B 228
A 59
Garath
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Rent Level
Average in €/sqm/month on postcode level
< 10.00 12.00 < 13.00 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
10.00 < 11.00 >= 13.00 Green Area Other Area
11.00 < 12.00
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Düsseldorf 11Tremendous price growth in the prime
condominium apartment segment
Asking prices for condominium apartments in Düsseldorf
rose by 4.0% over the second half of 2020 compared to
the same period the previous year to their current level of
Distribution of condo listings by price group €4,440/sqm. Rental price growth in the mid-priced seg-
ment has therefore slowed considerably compared to the
previous year (13.3%) and the 5-year average (7.8% p.a.).
However, this overall trend was not readily apparent in
the prime (€7,500/sqm) or new-build segments (€6,740/
sqm) over the last six months. Asking prices in these cate-
gories rose by 10.8% and 7.8% respectively, pointing to
significantly increased growth in the prime segment
whilst roughly equating to the medium-term trend in the
new-build segment. Even if there was a fall in the growth
of prices in the lower priced condominium apartment
segment (lowest 10% of all purchase offers) compared to
the previous year (19.8%), the growth rate of 11.1% is still
above the 5-year average of 9.9% p.a. In an analysis of lo-
cations, the most significant price increases were in the
suburban areas in Districts 10, 7 and 5, but all areas expe-
rienced at least marginal growth compared to the corre-
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
sponding period of the previous year.
Purchase price bands for condominiums Düsseldorf Development of purchase prices for condominiums
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Düsseldorf 12Asking condominium prices Düsseldorf
Kaiserswerth
B 8n
Flughafen
Düsseldorf
A 44
B8
A 52
Rath
B 7/8
Gerresheim
Altstadt B7
Oberkassel
Flingern
L85
Unterbilk
B1 B 326 Eller
L404
A 46
Benrath
B 228
A 59
Garath
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Condominium price level
Average in €/sqm on postcode level
3,000 < 4,000 5,000 < 6,000 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
4,000 < 5,000 >= 6,000 Green Area Other Area
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Düsseldorf 13Housing market Frankfurt
Frankfurt counteracts scarcity of available land the highest number of new building permits issued since the
with a multitude of conversions early 1960s (2019: 5,829). The level of completions in Frank-
After a high point in terms of the number of newly completed furt was actually a little above the estimated requirement for
apartments in 2017 with 5,122, the number of completions additional apartments (intermediate scenario: around 3,135
has remained at a high level ever since (4,636 new apart- residential units each year until 2030). However, it remains to
ments in 2019). This significant increase in the number of be seen to what extent this level can be maintained over the
completions has been due mainly to a considerable growth longer term. On the one hand, a large proportion of the new
in construction backlog in the preceding period: in 2018 building permits (approximately 1,195 apartments) were is-
alone, there were 7,329 newly completed apartments and sued for the proposed conversion of commercial properties
to residential use – a clear sign of the scarcity on the supply
side. On the other hand, the increasing shortage of building
Housing supply and demand for land has meant that housing projects are more rarely con-
new buildings Frankfurt structed on undeveloped sites and there are significant re-
strictions on the supply side because of the high land prices.
Frankfurt’s city council has therefore passed a building land
directive, which is a planning decision to guarantee that any
future residential development must contain at least 30%
publicly subsidised housing. Frankfurt experienced substan-
tial population growth of 50,000 in the period from 2014 to
2020. Even if this growth has recently slowed down due to
the lower levels of population influx, the average inward mi-
gration, especially amongst the 18-30-year age group, remains
high (5-year average approximately 8,000 p.a.). Together with
the more intensive development of building sites, the result-
ing shift in demand is also having an effect on the supply
side: by far, the greatest proportion of completions is for stu-
dio and 2-room apartments (around 46%). Despite a high
proportion of new international arrivals in this age group and
*Additional annual need for housing units (includes also apartments in detached the COVID-19 movement restrictions, Frankfurt was still expe-
houses) without consideration of current construction deficits.
Source: destatis, JLL; Status: January 2021 riencing positive population growth as at mid-year 2020.
Selected developments under constructions
Name Location Residential units Completion date
Hafenpark Ostend approx. 600 2025
Wohnquartier Berghöfe Kalbach-Riedberg approx.360 2023
Wohnanlage Ruby Tower Niederrad approx. 315 2021
Wohnquartier Wings Gallus approx. 280 2021
Wohnquartier Grünhoch2 Nieder-Eschbach approx. 280 2022
Source: Thomas Daily, JLL; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Frankfurt 14Increased rental price growth in the new-build seg-
ment, more subdued growth in other segments
Average asking rents in Frankfurt increased by 4.2% year-
on-year in the second half of 2020 to their current level of
€16.00/sqm/month. This development is at around the
Distribution of rental listings by price group same level as the 5-year average (4.4% p.a.) and around
1 percentage point above the previous year’s level (3.2%).
There was a significant fall in momentum both in the
prime segment (2.3%) and in the lower priced segment
(lowest 10% of all rental offers at 2.3%) compared to the
preceding years (5-year averages: 5.7% and 4.3% p.a., re-
spectively). Conversely, prices in the new-build segment
rose by 8.7% to their current level of €17.55/sqm/month,
a significant increase compared to both the previous year
(0.9%) and the 5-year average (3.6% p.a.). In an analysis
of locations, the most significant rental price increases
in the second half of the year were observed in the City
Centre I submarket with the Gallus, Gutleutviertel, Central
Station, Old Town and City Centre districts, and in the
West and Mitte-West submarkets.
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
Rental price bands for listed apartments Frankfurt Development of rental prices
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Frankfurt 15Asking rental prices Frankfurt
Nieder-
Erlenbach
Nieder-
Eschbach
Kalbach Harheim
Bonames
Frankfurter
Niederursel
Berg Berkersheim
Heddernheim
Eschersheim Bergen-
Preungesheim Enkheim
Eckenheim
Dornbusch
Praunheim A 661 Seckbach
Ginnheim
A5
Hausen Westend-
B 44 Nord Nordend-
B8 West Bornheim B 8/40
A 66 Rödelheim Riederwald
Nordend-
Sossenheim
Bockenheim Westend- Ost Fechenheim
Unterliederbach A 648 Süd Ostend
B 40/44 Innenstadt
Altstadt
Höchst Gallusviertel Bahnhofsviertel
Nied
Zeilsheim Sachsenhausen-
B 40a
Griesheim Oberrad
Nord
Gutleutviertel B3
Sindlingen Niederrad
Schwanheim B 43/44
Sachsenhausen-
Süd
A3
B 43
Flughafen Frankfurt
Flughafen
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Rent Level
Average in €/sqm/month on postcode level
< 12.00 16.00 < 18.00 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
12.00 < 14.00 >= 18.00 Green Area Other Area
14.00 < 16.00
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Frankfurt 16Continuing growth, especially for purchase prices
in the new-build segment
The average purchase price for condominium apartments
in Frankfurt of €6,550/sqm was an increase of 11.8% in the
second half of 2020. This continues the growth of the previ-
Distribution of condo listings by price group ous year (9.7%) and even exceeds the 5-year average (8.5%
p.a.). The strongest impetus for this half-year trend did not
come from the prime segment (€9,460/sqm), as this is actu-
ally a little below the previous year’s level (-0.3%) after the
significant growth in this segment of 11.9% last year, and a
5-year average of 8.6% p.a. The most significant momen-
tum came from the lower priced segment (€4,010/sqm)
where purchase prices grew by 12.0% (previous year: 13.7%),
and the new-build segment where asking prices in the sec-
ond half of 2020 were 13.6% higher than in the same period
the previous year. This growth is again considerably above
both the previous year’s level (8.2%) and the 5-year average
(9.6% p.a.). There was also further marginal growth in the
absolute prime segment in Frankfurt with a price of around
€15,000/sqm. In an analysis of locations, there was signifi-
cant growth in purchase prices in the North East, Mitte-
West and Mitte-North submarkets, but purchase prices
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
stagnated in the city centre districts.
Purchase price bands for condominiums Frankfurt Development of purchase prices for condominiums
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Frankfurt 17Asking condominium prices Frankfurt
Nieder-
Erlenbach
Nieder-
Eschbach
Kalbach Harheim
Bonames
Frankfurter
Niederursel
Berg Berkersheim
Heddernheim
Eschersheim Bergen-
Preungesheim Enkheim
Eckenheim
Dornbusch
Praunheim A 661 Seckbach
Ginnheim
A5
Hausen Westend-
B 44 Nord Nordend-
B8 West Bornheim B 8/40
A 66
Rödelheim Riederwald
Nordend-
Sossenheim
Bockenheim Westend- Ost Fechenheim
Unterliederbach A 648 Süd Ostend
B 40/44 Innenstadt
Altstadt
Höchst Gallusviertel Bahnhofsviertel
Nied
Zeilsheim Sachsenhausen-
B 40a
Griesheim Oberrad
Nord
Gutleutviertel B3
Sindlingen Niederrad
Schwanheim B 43/44
Sachsenhausen-
Süd
A3
B 43
Flughafen Frankfurt
Flughafen
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Condominium price level
Average in €/sqm on postcode level
< 3,000 6,000 < 8,500 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
4,000 < 5,500 >= 8,500 Green Area Other Area
5,500 < 6,000
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Frankfurt 18Housing market Hamburg
Residential completions having sustainable effect on the next few years. The intermediate requirement scenario
market trends shows that an additional approximately 7,040 new homes
With a completion level of around 10,000 new homes a year are required each year (this figure rises to around 8,800 ad-
(compared to around 9,800 in 2019), Hamburg’s city council ditional homes in an optimistic scenario). There are a num-
has not only reached its own objectives in terms of construc- ber of observations in Hamburg which give grounds for op-
tion activity as set out by the Bündnis für Wohnen (Alliance timism that the high level of construction activity of the last
for Housing), but has now achieved a level which will be few years will continue over the coming years: the number
sufficient to satisfy the estimated additional demand over of new building permits issued has not only risen continu-
ally over the last few years, but actually exceeded the level
of completions (+11,632 permits in 2019). Most of these
Housing supply and demand for were located in the central districts of Altona and Hafen-
new buildings Hamburg City. Furthermore, the high and stable number of building
land sales show that there have been no significant signs of
a shortage of land in the market to date. This is hardly sur-
prising given the enormous potential which the city council
is currently attempting to leverage in central locations by
granting permits for change of use. These are trends which
have an immediate effect on the market: amongst the Big 8
cities, Hamburg has seen the lowest housing cost increases
for both existing and new-build apartments, despite the
dynamic growth in demand. There has been a significant
year-on-year population growth of 3% to around 1.89 mil-
lion in 2019, despite the net inward migration balance de-
creasing. Hamburg’s economy has been characterised by
the high-growth sectors of the last few years which, in addi-
tion to its importance as a university city, is one of the main
reasons for the positive employment growth and job-relat-
*Additional annual need for housing units (includes also apartments in detached ed influx of younger groups coming to the city to work (5-year
houses) without consideration of current construction deficits.
Source: destatis, JLL; Status: January 2021 average net inward migration of 10,264 p.a. in the 18-30-
year age group).
Selected developments under constructions
Name Location Residential units Completion date
Tarpenbeker Ufer – Wohnquartier Lokstedt approx. 950 2021
Wulffsche Siedlung Langenhorn approx. 700 2025
Wohnquartier am Weißenberg Alsterdorf approx. 485 2022
Kolbenhöfe Ottensen approx. 420 2022
Bahrenfelder Carré – Wohnquartier Bahrenfeld approx. 290 2021
Source: Thomas Daily, JLL; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Hamburg 19Stronger rental price rises in the prime and new-build
segments compared to previous year
Rental growth in Hamburg has again slowed compared to
the same period the previous year. The median rent rose by
2.4% to its current level of €13.05/sqm/month, a growth of
Distribution of rental listings by price group around 0.4% points below that of the previous year. The
5-year average growth is 3.3% p.a., which is considerably
above the current level. As in the first half of 2020, the most
significant rental price rises were achieved in the prime
segment (€19.75/sqm/month). With an increase of 5.6%,
rental prices for the most expensive 10% of all rental offers
are considerably above the 5-year average growth of 4.1%
p.a. Growth in the lower priced segment (lowest 10% of all
rental offers: €9.30/sqm/month) was 1.6%, considerably
below both the other price categories and the previous
year’s growth rate. Rents in the new-build segment (€14.90/
sqm/month) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in the second half
of 2020, which is stronger growth than in the previous year.
In an analysis of locations, the strongest growth in median
rents of 5.8% was observed in Harburg, whilst rental growth
practically stagnated in Mitte and Bergedorf.
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
Rental price bands for listed apartments Hamburg Development of rental prices
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Hamburg 20Asking rental prices Hamburg
L 284
B 432
B4 Flughafen
Hamburg
Wandsbek
A 23
Hamburg-
Eimsbüttel
Nord
B 433 B 435
B 447
L 225
Altona
B 431 A 24
B 75
A1
Hamburg-
B5
Mitte
A 252
A 255
B 4/75
A 26
B 207
Harburg
B 73 A 253
A 25
Bergedorf
A7
A 261
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Rent Level
Average in €/sqm/month on postcode level
< 10.00 14.00 < 16.00 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
10.00 < 12.00 >= 16.00 Green Area Other Area
12.00 < 14.00
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Hamburg 21Highest purchase price growth in the new-build segment
The average asking purchase price in Hamburg grew by
17.6% in the second half of 2020 to its current level of
€5,760/sqm. This is above the growth rate in the same
period the previous year (11.1%) and considerably above
Distribution of condo listings by price group the 5-year average (5.7% p.a.). The prime segment (top 10%
of all purchase offers: €9,370/sqm) saw annual growth of
17.1%, which is again significantly higher than the same
period the previous year (10.8%). The greatest increase in
purchase prices was observed in the new-build segment,
where asking prices increased by 23.0% year-on-year in the
second half of 2020 to their current level of €6,950/sqm.
Growth has accelerated once again by over half compared
to the previous year (14.4%), four times as fast as the 5-year
average. In the absolute prime segment, prices range from
€14,000/sqm to €15,000/sqm. There was slower growth in
the lower price segment but there was still a growth rate
of 10.2%. In an analysis of locations, the highest purchase
price growth rates were observed in Eimsbüttel and Har-
burg, but there was also a significant year-on-year growth
in Bergedorf with 8.1%.
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
Purchase price bands for condominiums Hamburg Development of purchase prices for condominiums
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Hamburg 22Asking condominium prices Hamburg
L 284
B 432
B4 B 433
Flughafen Hamburg
Wandsbek
A 23
Hamburg-
Eimsbüttel
Nord
B 435
B 447
L 225
Altona
B 431 A 24
B 75
A1
Hamburg-
B5
Mitte
A 252
A 255
B 4/75
A 26
B 207
Harburg
B 73 A 253
A 25
Bergedorf
A7
A 261
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Condominium price level
Average in €/sqm on postcode level
< 4,000 7,000 < 8,500 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
4,000 < 5,500 > 8,500 Green Area Other Area
5,500 < 7,000
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Hamburg 23Housing market Cologne
Wide discrepancy between requirement for 2019). Quite simply, development land is in short supply in
new housing and completion levels the cathedral city. Sales of building land have fallen by over
The volume of new housing in Cologne has remained at a 60% over the last 8 years alone. The cost of new housing is
relatively low level for many years despite its importance also noticeably on the increase. There is a different picture
as the largest city in the state of North Rhein-Westphalia, a on the demand side: Cologne’s population increased by
university location and economic powerhouse with a di- 38,000 between 2014 and 2019. In addition to the high level
verse branch mix. The fall of around 40% compared to the of natural population growth (1,549 in 2019), population
previous year’s level has brought the number of comple- development in Cologne has been driven mainly by a high
tions in 2019 to its lowest level of the last 10 years (2,175 in level of new arrivals, but that has since slowed down and
since 2017, has not actually been a major factor in terms
of population growth (214 net migration in 2019). With a
Housing supply and demand for 5-year average net inward migration balance of 7,948 p.a.,
new buildings Cologne most people coming to live in the city are from the 18-25-
year age group, whilst the 30-50-year age group experi-
enced a significant negative migration balance. This dis-
crepancy has resulted in structural changes, especially in
terms of household type, resulting in increased demand.
The imbalance between supply and demand is also evi-
dent in a comparison with the other Big 8 cities: Cologne’s
residential market has the widest gap between additional
demand and the current level of completions. With an aver-
age annual requirement of around 4,200 new homes in the
period up to 2030, the estimated requirement is around
twice the level of completions. The city council’s objective
is to create around 4,800 new homes every year, which is
actually higher than the requirement profile. There is some
cause for optimism in that the construction backlog in
Cologne has risen continually over the last few years, al-
*Additional annual need for housing units (includes also apartments in detached though the number of new building permits issued has
houses) without consideration of current construction deficits.
Source: destatis, JLL; Status: January 2021 fallen slightly (2,715 in 2019).
Selected developments under constructions
Name Location Residential units Completion date
Clouth-Quartier Nippes approx. 1,200 2022
Ehrenveedel Ehrenfeld approx. 550 2022
Cologneo I Mülheim approx. 500 2022
Ossendorfer Gartenhöfe Ossendorf approx. 435 2021
Parkstadt Michaelshoven Rodenkirchen approx. 400 2024
Source: Thomas Daily, JLL; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Cologne 24Highest rental price growth in the new-build segment
In the second half of 2020, the median rent rose by 6.6%
compared to the same period the previous year to its cur-
rent level of €12.85/sqm/month. This increase is above the
5-year average of 4.5% p.a. In the prime segment (€20.00/
Distribution of rental listings by price group sqm/month), the year-on-year rental price increase has
slowed more recently, but is still highly positive at 3.1%.
Price group in €/sqm/month Growth in the lower price segment was equally strong (low-
> 31 est 10% of all asking rents: €9.35/sqm/month), with an in-
≤ 31
≤ 29 crease of 3.9% compared to the second half of 2019. There
≤ 27 were less dynamic rental price increases for smaller apart-
≤ 25
≤ 23 ments (< 45 sqm), with annual growth in asking rents of
≤ 21 2.8% to their current average of €16.40/sqm/month. The
≤ 19
≤ 17 highest year-on-year growth in asking rents was in the new-
≤ 15
≤ 13
build segment with 15.6% (€14.45/sqm/month). In an anal-
≤ 11 ysis of locations, the highest median asking rent is currently
≤9
≤7 in the city centre with €15.25/sqm/month, followed by
≤5 Ehrenfeld with an average of around €14.15/sqm/month.
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
H2 2020
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
Rental price bands for listed apartments Cologne Development of rental prices
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Cologne 25Asking rental prices Cologne
A 57
A1
Chorweiler
B 51
B9
A3
Nippes Mülheim
B 59
Ehrenfeld
B 506
B 55a
B8
B 55n
Lindenthal Innenstadt
B 55
B 265
Kalk
B 264 A 559
A 59
B 9/51
A4
A 555
Rodenkirchen Porz
Flughafen Köln/Bonn
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Rent Level
Average in €/sqm/month on postcode level
10.00 < 11.50 13.00 < 14.00 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
11.50 < 13.00 >= 14.00 Green Area Other Area
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Cologne 26Continuing increases in purchase prices, with
dynamic shift to the lower price segment
Dynamism in Cologne’s market for condominium apart-
ments continued in the second half of 2020. The growth in
purchase prices of 10.4% compared to the same period the
Distribution of condo listings by price group previous year was a significant increase, especially com-
pared to the 5-year average (8.1% p.a.). Average asking prices
in the mid-priced category are now around €4,440/sqm.
With increases of just 3.3% and 5.3% in the prime and new-
build segments respectively, growth has slowed consider-
ably compared to the same period the previous year
(12.4% and 10.9%), but the price rally in the lower priced
segment (lowest 10% of all purchase offers) continued un-
abated with an increase of 14.3% to its current level of
€2,880/sqm. Prices in the absolute prime segment are
around €9,500/sqm and can exceed €10,000/sqm in indi-
vidual cases. In an analysis of locations, the greatest hikes
in purchase prices compared to the same period the previ-
ous year have been in Mülheim, Ehrenfeld and Chorweiler,
whilst the city centre experienced below-average growth
and areas such as Rodenkirchen and Lindenthal stagnated
or even saw slight falls in prices.
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
Purchase price bands for condominiums Cologne Development of purchase prices for condominiums
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Cologne 27Asking condominium prices Cologne
A 57
A1
Chorweiler
B 51
B9
A3
Nippes Mülheim
B 59
Ehrenfeld
B 506
B 55a
B8
B 55n
Lindenthal Innenstadt
B 55
B 265 Kalk
B 264 A 559
A 59
B 9/51
A4
A 555
Rodenkirchen Porz
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Condominium price level
Average in €/sqm on postcode level
< 3,000 4,500 < 5,500 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
3,000 < 3,500 >= 5,500 Green Area Other Area
3,500 < 4,500
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Cologne 28Housing market Leipzig
Net population influx, despite the COVID-19 crisis remains the most dynamic in terms of population growth
Despite the mobility restrictions resulting from the COVID-19 in 2020 (16% population growth between 2010 and 2020).
pandemic, the net inward migration into Leipzig remained Even if the net influx remained constant in the period 2018 –
almost the same in 2020 (inward migration balance of 2020, this is still below the level of the preceding years.
around 5,000 is a change of just -5% compared to the pre- This trend is mainly a reaction to changes in the market
vious year). With a net inward migration of around 83 per brought about by the significant increase in demand:
10,000 population each year, Leipzig still has by far the whilst the last 10 years were characterised by the poten-
highest relative net population influx of all Big 8 cities and tial offered by decreasing vacancy levels, supply is now
slower to react to changes in demand which means that
there are now greater effects on prices. The increasing
Housing supply and demand for housing costs tend to reduce the acceleration in inward
new buildings Leipzig migration. Nonetheless, the level of population growth
and the requirement for additional residential units re-
mains high. Given the fall in existing capacity, this demand
must be increasingly satisfied by construction activity. In
this context, the intermediate scenario in terms of the an-
nual requirement for new homes is around 4,200, a level
which was matched by the number of new building per-
mits issued for the first time in 2019 (4,330 new homes).
Therefore, the number of new building permits has more
than quadrupled over a period of 10 years, which shows
the city council’s strategy of focusing on residential con-
struction to guarantee a sufficient supply of affordable
housing. The number of completions also rose; however,
the 2,356 newly completed apartments was below the
number of new building permits. The significant increase
in the construction backlog indicates that the level of
*Additional annual need for housing units (includes also apartments in detached completions will tend to increase in the future.
houses) without consideration of current construction deficits.
Source: destatis, JLL; Status: January 2021
Selected developments under constructions
Name Location Residential units Completion date
Leipzig 416 Zentrum-Nord approx. 2,200 2021
Wohnquartier Sonnenpark Probstheida approx. 300 2022
Quartier Kreuzstraße Zentrum-Ost approx. 190 2023
LWB – Querstraße Zentrum-Ost approx. 150 2021
LWB – Straße des 18. Oktober Zentrum-Südost approx. 100 2021
Source: Thomas Daily, JLL; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Leipzig 29Prime and new-build segments still driving
rental price growth
There was a 3.4% increase in median rents in Leipzig in the
second half of 2020 (€7.50/sqm/month). This is around the
same level as the average rental price growth in the other
Distribution of rental listings by price group Big 8 cities, but is below its own 5-year average of 5.5% p.a.
There were above-average rental price increases over the
last six months in the prime (top 10% of all rental offers)
and new-build segments. The rental price growths of 5.0%
and 4.8% respectively were below the 5-year averages
(5.1% and 9.1% p.a.), but growth in the prime segment was
twice as strong as the Big 8 average. The achievable rents
in the prime segment are €10.50/sqm/month, and €11.00/
sqm/month in the new-build segment. In the lower priced
segment (lowest 10% of all rental offers), rents rose by just
2.6% compared to the same period the previous year to
their current level of €5.90/sqm/month. There were slight
to moderate falls in the median rent compared to the sec-
ond half of 2019 in a number of districts, but marginal in-
creases in the West and North West districts.
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
Rental price bands for listed apartments Leipzig Development of rental prices
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Leipzig 30Asking rental prices Leipzig
B 184
A 14
Flughafen Leipzig/Halle
Nord
B6
Nordwest
Nordost
K6570
B 186
Alt-
B 181 West B 6 / B 87
Mitte Ost
B 87
West
Süd Südost
B2
Südwest
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Rent Level
Average in €/sqm/month on postcode level
< 6.00 8.00 < 9.00 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
6.00 < 7.00 >= 9.00 Green Area Other Area
7.00 < 8.00
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Leipzig 31Price growth in the market for condominium
apartments continues in all segments
There was another significant rise in purchase prices for
condominium apartments in Leipzig over the second half
of 2020. These grew by 14.2% to their current average of
Distribution of condo listings by price group €2,580/sqm. The growth was higher than the previous year
(8.7%) and greater than the 5-year average (11.2% p.a.). In
the prime segment with current asking prices of €4,770/
sqm, there was purchase price growth of 12.2% in both this
and on a similar level in the mid-priced segment. The
strongest year-on-year growth was achieved in the lower
price segment (lowest 10% of all purchase offers: €1,770/
sqm) with 18.0% (previous year: 15.4%). In the new-build
segment with current asking prices of €4,310/sqm, there
was a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, which is higher than
both last year’s growth rate (3.3%) and the 5-year average
(7.5% p.a.). In an analysis of locations, the East, South,
South East and Mitte districts benefited most from the
growth in purchase prices over the past six months.
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
Purchase price bands for condominiums Leipzig Development of purchase prices for condominiums
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Leipzig 32Asking condominium prices Leipzig
B 184
A 14
Nord
B6
Nordwest
Nordost
K6570
B 186
Alt-
B 181 West B 6 / B 87
Mitte Ost
B 87
West
Süd Südost
B2
Südwest
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Condominium price level
Average in €/sqm on postcode level
< 1,500 2,500 < 3,500 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
1,500 < 2,000 >= 3,500 Green Area Other Area
2,000 < 2,500
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Leipzig 33Housing market Munich
Munich’s population continues to grow in 2020 meant a rise in the proportion of households with require-
With an increase of around 0.2% to a total of 1.562 million, ments for larger residential units. Over the next few years
Munich’s population grew in 2020 despite the COVID-19 this trend was counteracted by less inward migration and
crisis. Due to the hikes in housing costs and the poor af- the significant increase in supply. After the high point in
fordability of own-occupied residential property, the num- terms of completions with 9,351 new apartments in 2018,
ber of households leaving the city seeking larger areas of which was double the number from 10 years previously,
living space has increased over the last few years, and this had fallen to 7,121 new apartments in 2019. Although
reached its low point in 2017 when the outward migration the number of new building permits fell for the second
balance was 12,600. The increased birth rates in particular successive year in 2019 with 10,929 new apartments, both
completions and permits remained at a high level. In this
context, a relatively high level of completions over the me-
Housing supply and demand for dium-term are expected. To achieve the objective of a fur-
new buildings Munich ther 120,000 completions by 2030, in addition to increas-
ing building density in developed areas, Munich’s city
council is promoting the construction of large residential
estates in suburban areas. There is no alternative to this in
view of the increasing scarcity of building land and the
high land prices. The requirement for additional apart-
ments will also remain high over the next few years:
JLL’s requirements analysis anticipates a total of around
7,350 new apartments a year in the intermediate scenario.
This will not be affected by the negative migration balance
in 2020 (-3,460 net migration) which is mainly due to
COVID-19 restrictions. The most significant drivers of de-
mand for residential space are the catch-up potential in
terms of residential demand, structural demographic
changes and international inward migration.
*Additional annual need for housing units (includes also apartments in detached
houses) without consideration of current construction deficits.
Source: destatis, JLL; Status: January 2021
Selected developments under constructions
Name Location Residential units Completion date
div. Projekte Quartier Paul-Gerhardt-Allee Pasing-Obermenzing approx. 4,000 as of 2021
Stadtquartier DiamaltPark Allach-Untermenzing approx. 720 2022
Stadtteilentwicklung Prinz-Eugen-Kaserne Bogenhausen approx. 640 2022
Stadtquartier ehemaliger Viehhof Sendling Sendling approx. 600 2022
Stadtquartier Lipperheidestraße Pasing-Obermenzing approx. 340 2021
Source: Thomas Daily, JLL; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Munich 34Rental price growth continuing with
slowing momentum
Asking rents in Munich rose by 2.8% year-on-year in the
second half of 2020 to their current level of €20.55/sqm/
month. This is a fall in growth compared to the 5-year
Distribution of rental listings by price group average (5.0% p.a.) and the same period the previous year
(3.8%). In the prime segment (top 10% of all rental offers),
rents stagnated at a level of €30.00/sqm/month after a hike
of 4.9% in the previous year. There was significantly greater
growth of 5.6% in the lower priced segment (lowest 10% of
all rental offers), which had tended to fall during the second
half of the previous year. In the new-build segment, rents
grew by 3.8% year-on-year to their current level of €21.95/
sqm/month, which was less dynamic growth than in both
the previous year (4.8%) and the 5-year average (4.9% p.a.).
In an analysis of locations, the greatest rental price hikes
were in the South East, South and West submarkets, where
there were annual increases of between 9.2% and 5.0%.
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
Rental price bands for listed apartments Munich Development of rental prices
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Munich 35Asking rental prices Munich
B 13
A9
Feldmoching-
Hasenbergl
B 11
Allach- Schwabing-
Untermenzing Freimann
Milbertshofen-
Moosach Am Hart
B 2r
A 99 A8
Aubing- Schwabing-
Lochhausen- Pasing- West
Langwied Obermenzing Neuhausen- Bogenhausen
Nymphenburg
B 2a
Maxvorstadt
B2
Altstadt- A 94
Laim Schwanthalerhöhe Lehel
Ludwigsvorstadt- Trudering-
Isarvorstadt Au- Berg am Laim Riem
A 96
Sendling- Haidhausen
Westpark Sendling K 12
Hadern
Obergiesing B 304
Ramersdorf-
Untergiesing- Perlach
B 995
Thalkirchen- Harlaching
Obersendling-
Forstenried-
Fürstenried-
Solln
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Rent Level
Average in €/sqm/month on postcode level
< 18.00 22.00 < 24.00 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
18.00 < 20.00 >= 24.00 Green Area Other Area
20.00 < 22.00
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Munich 36Purchase price growth continues in all segments
The growth in purchase prices for condominium apart-
ments in Munich continued in the second half of 2020.
Asking prices rose by 6.4% to their current level of €8,650/
sqm. The growth is slightly below both the previous year’s
Distribution of condo listings by price group level (8.5%) and the 5-year average (7.8% p.a.). There was
growth of 4.6% in the prime segment (top 10% of all pur-
chase offers) to the current level of €12,550/sqm, but this
is lower than the medium-term average (8.5% p.a.). None-
theless, prices in the absolute prime segment have settled
at above €20,000/sqm. This is a similar picture to the low-
er priced segment (€6,460/sqm, or 7.0%) albeit at a higher
level. The 5-year average in this segment is 9.6% p.a. Mo-
mentum increased significantly in the new-build segment
(€9,750/sqm) where growth of 9.6% was above the 5-year
average of 7.6% p.a. In an analysis of locations, the most
significant price hikes were in the South, Mitte-North and
North submarkets, but there was at least some level of
growth in all areas.
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
Purchase price bands for condominiums Munich Development of purchase prices for condominiums
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021 Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Munich 37Asking condominium prices Munich
B 13
A9
Feldmoching-
Hasenbergl
B 11
Allach- Schwabing-
Untermenzing Freimann
Milbertshofen-
Moosach Am Hart
B 2r
A 99 A8
Aubing- Schwabing-
Lochhausen- Pasing- West
Langwied Obermenzing Neuhausen- Bogenhausen
Nymphenburg
B 2a
Maxvorstadt
B2
Altstadt- A 94
Laim Schwanthalerhöhe Lehel
Ludwigsvorstadt- Trudering-
Isarvorstadt Au- Berg am Laim Riem
A 96
Sendling- Haidhausen
Westpark Sendling K 12
Hadern
Obergiesing B 304
Ramersdorf-
Untergiesing- Perlach
B 995
Thalkirchen- Harlaching
Obersendling-
Forstenried-
Fürstenried-
Solln
0 5 10 km
OpenStreetMap-contributors
Condominium price level
Average in €/sqm on postcode level
< 7,000 9,000 < 10,000 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
7,000 < 8,000 >= 10,000 Green Area Other Area
8,000 < 9,000
Source: JLL, empirica systeme
Housing Market Overview Germany | H2 2020 Munich 38Housing market Stuttgart
Stuttgart’s population fell in 2020 the significant downturn in inward migration over the
After the dynamic population growth in Stuttgart between course of the year which coincided with the beginning of
2010 and 2018 and stagnation in 2019, the population actu- the COVID-19 pandemic. Whilst the average monthly migra-
ally fell for the first time (approximately -7,000 or -1.1% tion balance was -270 in the first four months of the year,
compared to the previous year) to 608,000 by the end of this increased to an average of -760 in the following
2020. Whilst the natural population balance remained posi- months. Therefore, the trend is largely commensurate with
tive, it was stagnating inward migration numbers that re- the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and the resulting move-
sulted in the negative population growth, leading to the ment restrictions. Even on the supply side, there has been
overall fall in population. The most noticeable factor was less momentum recently. With a fall of around 20% year-
on-year, the number of completions fell dramatically in
2019 (1,486 new apartments) which means that Stuttgart
Housing supply and demand for lags behind the other Big 8 cities in terms of apartment
new buildings Stuttgart completions per 10,000 population. Even after the slight in-
crease in the number of new building permits issued over
the last few years (2,082 permits in 2019), this is below the
average level of completions and consequently no signifi-
cant improvement in the supply situation is expected over
the medium-term. However, there is still an enormous re-
quirement for new apartments over the coming years (in-
termediate scenario: 1,360 new apartments a year). On the
one hand, there is still a positive natural population bal-
ance and on the other, demographic developments are
resulting in changes in the composition of households such
as a rise in the proportion of single-person households,
which in itself brings a further rise in demand. Furthermore,
Stuttgart remains an important super-regional economic
and university location, and so there is likely to be continual
population growth over the medium-term, especially in the
*Additional annual need for housing units (includes also apartments in detached 18-30-year age group.
houses) without consideration of current construction deficits.
Source: destatis, JLL; Status: January 2021
Selected developments under constructions
Name Location Residential units Completion date
Wohnquartier Giebel Giebel approx. 335 2023
City Prag – Wohnen im Theaterviertel Feuerbach approx. 250 2022
Wohnen am Höhenpark Killesberg Feuerbach approx. 200 2023
div. Projekte Hansa-Areal Möhringen approx. 340 as of 2021
Wohnquartier am Vogelsang West approx. 150 2022
Source: Thomas Daily, JLL; Status: January 2021
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