JULY 2021 - Edelweiss Wealth Management
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JULY 2021
Agenda
Pg 03 Rebound In Economic Activity
Pg 07 Executive Summary
Pg 10 Global Macros
Pg 13 Asset Class Specific Views and Performance
Pg 26 Model Portfolio
Pg 34 Data Tables and AnnexureWhile Macro Numbers Dwindled Due To 2nd
Wave
GST collections in June dropped below INR 1 lakh crore Manufacturing as well as Services PMI at 10 months low
60
1.41
50 48.1
1.20 1.24
1.11 1.13 41.2
1.05 1.03 40
0.97 0.93
0.91
30
0.62 20
0.32 10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
CY20 CY21
Manufacturing PMI Services PMI
Figures in INR lakh crore
Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, News Articles Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research
Demand downticks in April and May
10.0 ► Economic restrictions as a result of lockdown in April and May
had a sobering effect on India macro numbers across sectors.
0.0
► While PMI numbers went below 50 reflecting supply side
-10.0 contraction, demand side indicators also disappointed.
► However, with receding active covid cases and economy
-20.0
opening up, macro numbers are likely to show momentum in
-30.0 Q2FY22.
Railways Frieght Consumption: PoL Products Tractor Sales GST
Traffic Finished steel
3-Month average May-21 (MoM)
Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research 4But Cases Drop As Vaccination Picks Pace
New covid cases recede further in June Rebound in mobility as lockdown restrictions ease
40
500
New cases: 7DMA (RHS) 20
400 0
-20
300
%
Lakhs
-40
200 -60
-80
100
-100
24-Feb-20
24-Mar-20
24-Apr-20
24-May-20
24-Jun-20
24-Jul-20
24-Aug-20
24-Sep-20
24-Oct-20
24-Nov-20
24-Dec-20
24-Jan-21
24-Feb-21
24-Mar-21
24-Apr-21
24-May-21
24-Jun-21
0
23-Jan-21
06-Feb-21
20-Feb-21
06-Mar-21
20-Mar-21
03-Apr-21
17-Apr-21
01-May-21
15-May-21
29-May-21
12-Jun-21
26-Jun-21
Retail and Recreation Grocer and Pharmacy Transit Stations Workplaces
Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research
Momentum in India’s vaccination pace Multiple vaccines have been rolled out globally
70.0 62.5 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Authorized Approved
60.0
50.0
51 37 32 9 8
Lakhs
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0 Vaccines Vaccines in
13.6 testing
Vaccines in
large scale
Vaccines in Vaccines
0.0
expanded early or approved for
27-Jan-21 27-Feb-21 27-Mar-21 27-Apr-21 27-May-21 27-Jun-21 safety and efficacy
safety trials limited use full use
New vaccinations: 7DMA dosage tests
Data as on 7th July 2021 5
Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research Source: New York Times Vaccine TrackerRecovery Green Shoots Visible
Unemployment rate has decreased after surge in May Resumption in economic activity lead to pick up in E-way bills
16 8.0
Unemployment rate (%)
12 6.0 5.5
crores
8 4.0
4 2.0
0 0.0
Urban Rural GST: E-way bills
Data Source: CMIE Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, News articles
The southwest monsoon so far has been better than anticipated
► As economic activities rebound, unemployment rate has also
200
moderated after surging in May.
160
120
► The progress of the southwest monsoon in June has been
mm
much better than anticipated, with headline departure at +16%.
80
40 ► The southwest monsoon being strong and well distributed
0
spatially will bode well for agricultural output and subsequent
deterring for CPI
Cumulative Actual Cumulative Normal
Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research 6Asset Class View
Equity Fixed Income and Alternates
► Muted consumer demand and subdued employment during lockdown can ► RBI’s accommodative stance is expected to continue till economy gets back on
act as headwinds to the performance of Indian equities, going forward the track. However, rising inflation may dampen interest rates scenario.
► However, recovery in corporate earnings, sustained capital flows and ► While spreads of both AAA and AA are almost unchanged, dislocations in
steady rise in vaccinated population indicate limited downside. spreads still persist in high yield credit which may be opportunistically used.
► We continue with marginal overweight call on equities. Corrections, ► Core allocation to high quality credit with diversification across investible
if any, should be used to align with tactical asset allocation, across credit spectrum in yield oriented HTM solutions is advisable.
risk profiles.
Investment Strategy Investment Strategy
► Strategic – Strong businesses across market capitalization ► Strategic – High quality credit with comparatively higher yields
► Deployment – Staggered Deployment over 60 days ► Tactical – High yielding credit of issuers with sound business practices
► Alternates – Exposure to Gold – buy on dips
► Tactical – Long Short and Pre-IPO opportunities
► Investments with predictable and regular cashflow
Shortlisted Products* Shortlisted Products*
► SP
► Large Cap
► CAT II AIF
► Index Funds/ ETFs
► InvIT/ REIT
► Multi/ Flexi Cap
► Debt ETF/Index
► Mid and small
► Corp Bond Funds
► International
► Credit Risk Funds
8Model Portfolio & Asset Allocation Summary
Strategic and tactical asset allocation
Equity Fixed Income
Substantially undeployed / ► Deploy in 4 equal tranches over next 60 days to ► Immediate Deployment in good quality credit where
Fresh Capital to invest take equity deployment to level as per your risk yields are comparatively higher as well as in high
profile yielding credit with select issuers
Deployed as per strategic ► Increase equity exposure to marginal overweight ► Review the underlying credit exposures
allocation as per respective risk profile. Product categories as (direct/indirect) and reallocate, if needed.
provided in model portfolio can be considered.
Conservative Portfolio Moderate Portfolio Aggressive Portfolio
75% 73.75% 55% 52.50% 63.75%
60%
47.50%
45%
40%
Model Portfolio vis-a 36.25%
vis Tactical Asset
25% 26.25%
Allocation for Existing
Clients
Equity Fixed Income Equity Fixed Income Equity Fixed Income
Model Portfolio Current Allocation Model Portfolio Current Allocation Model Portfolio Current Allocation
Please contact your financial advisor for more details & strategy 9US Outshines Other Economies
US Economic Activity Picks Pace as Jobless Claims Decline While manufacturing Outlook Dampens in China
60
30 Covid-19 Peak 8
55
25 24.9
6 50
20 6.87
Index
Millions
Millions
45
15 4
40
10
2 35
5
30
0 0
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Jun-21
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Aug-18
Jun-19
Aug-19
Jun-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-20
May-20
Dec-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
May-21
Apr-21
Jun-20
Oct-20
Jun-21
Mar-20
Mar-21
Jan-20
Jan-21
Glonal Manufacturing PMI Ex China China Manufacturing PMI
Continued Claims (LHS) Initial Claims (RHS)
Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, Bloomberg Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research
Policy support will continue albeit at a slower pace
► FOMC has upgraded US GDP growth for Q4 CY21 by 50 bps,
35000
2020 addition: USD 8.6 tn highlighting strengthening economy sooner than expected. It
30000
2021 addition:Inflation Risk Likely To Be Transitory
Spike in US inflation due to rapid economic recovery and low base DM yields have moderated slightly but still close to 1-year highs
6 Sovereign Bond Yields
5 4.0 9
Fed recognised that the current upswing in inflation is
4 rather transitory and inflationary pressure will abate by 3.0 7
year end
2.0 5
2
%
%
%
1.0 3
0 0.0 1
-1.0 -1
Dec-18
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-19
Dec-20
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
-2
Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21
US CPI (YoY) US 5 Year Treasury Yield US 10 Year Treasury Yield US Germany UK India (RHS)
Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, Bloomberg Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, Bloomberg
Dollar index rebounded from recent lows Increase in yields have prompted negative yielding debt to cool off
94 19.0 18.2
94
17.0
93
93 15.0
13.2
92 13.0
92
92
11.0
91
91 9.0
90
7.0
90
89
90
Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21
Dollar Index (DXY) Negative Yielding Debt
Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, Bloomberg 12
Data Source: BloombergEquity
Momentum In Broader Market
Revival in FII money after outflow in April and May Mid and small cap continue to outperform large cap
9000 8420 25% 35.0%
15% 26.2%
4500 3539 25.0% 24.3% 22.7%
2658 21.7%
USD Million
6.50% 20.0%
1444
5%
15.5% 14.5%
0 13.7% 13.8%
-389 15.0%
-5%
-1294 9.2%
-4500 7.0%
-15% 5.1%
-7886 5.0%
-9000 -25%
-5.0%
Nifty 50 NSE Midcap 100 NSE Smallcap 100
FII Inflow in Equity Nifty50 M-o-M return - RHS
Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 - till 31st May
Data Source: NSE, NSDL Data Source: NSE
A broader market recovery has led to a surge in Market cap to GDP
210 ► Indian equity market remained range-bound with Nifty50
205
posting a subdued return of 0.9% in June while, NSE Midcap
Market cap to GDP ratio
140 100 and Smallcap 100 continue to outperform with 4.6% and
121 110 5.0% returns respectively.
80
70 ► Sustained global and local liquidity along with initiation of
56
vaccination around the globe continue to drive the market.
0
► Fundamental elements like earnings growth and profitability
have shown signs of recovery and are expected to continue,
USA India India LT average (Since 2003)
despite a probable blip in Q1FY22.
Data Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, BSE, Ycharts.com 15Earnings Review – Margin Expansion Due To
Cost Rationalization
EBITDA margins surge to decadal high Costs have decreased significantly
21 43 25
42 20
20
41
15
19
% YoY
% YoY
40
%
10
18 39
5
38
17
37 0
16 36 -5
EBITDA margins (ex-BFSI) EBITDA margins (ex-BFSI and commodities) Fixed costs (% of Sales) Topline growth (%, YoY - RHS)
Data Source: Edelweiss Research
Data Source: Edelweiss Research
Listed players gain market share from unorganized segment
14 ► EBITDA margins have spiked by 200 bps despite weak
topline growth, which has happened due to sharp cost
3 3
rationalization and also gains from input prices.
% YoY
-1
-5 ► Listed players have benefitted due to factors such as
-9
-11
tightening of lending standards for SMEs by banks, lack of
-18
raw material availability, labor shortages etc.
Paints Cement Steel Ceramic Tiles
Listed companies vol growth in FY21 Industry vol growth in FY21
Data Source: Edelweiss Research 16
All above charts are for coverage universe consisting of 230 stocks from NSE 500Earnings Review – Record PAT growth
Sector wise snapshot of Q4FY21 earnings Strong profit growth while revenue growth muted
100
Revenue growth PAT Growth
Sector 75
YoY (%) 2Y CAGR YoY (%) 2Y CAGR 50
Commodity 15 3 316 29
% YoY
25
Exports/Global Exposure 17 5 76 14 0
Domestic Investment 14 6 94 7 -25
-50
Domestic Consumption 20 5 55 -8
-75
BFSI 20 13 97 80
Coverage* 17 5 135 24
Nifty 16 5 127 19 Coverage universe topline growth Coverage universe PAT growth
* Coverage universe consists of 230 stocks from NSE 500
Data Source: Edelweiss Research Data Source: Edelweiss Research
Profit growth (2Y CAGR) higher than pre-covid levels
► Strong profit growth visible across the board, even by 2Y
30 31
CAGR basis.
17 18
14
10 ► The cyclicals like commodities and BFSI reported strong
% YoY
5
1 0 growth while domestic investment remained subdued
► As the topline improvement is more measured and largely
-24
due to prices, the gap between topline and profits
BFSI (ex-Insurance) Domestic Investment Exports Domestic Commodities
(ex-Telecom) Consumption continued in Q4FY21 as well. Cost rationalization is an
Q3FY20 (pre-covid) PAT growth Q4FY21 (2Y CAGR) PAT Growth important factor for this gap widening.
A subset of above coverage universe has been taken for this chart. 17
Source: Edelweiss ResearchMixed Signals By Valuation Indicators
Earnings yield gap is skewed towards equity while momentum signals also are quite strong
1.0
0.9 Since Jan Value As of Decile as
Max Min
2001 30th May 21 of Jun21
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
PE 36.34 9.15 29.92 0.9
0.4
0.3
0.2 PB 6.06 1.65 3.27 0.7
0.1 P/E Vs P/B Vs BEER Ratio Decile
0.0
BEER 1.85 0.47 1.19 0.3
PE Decile PB Decile BEER Decile
*BEER is calculated by dividing the yield of a government bond by the current earnings yield of a stock benchmark in the same market. The idea behind the BEER ratio is that if stocks are
yielding more than bonds, then they are undervalued; inversely, if bonds are yielding more than stocks, then stocks are overvalued.
Source: Bloomberg
► When conventional valuation metrics like PE and PB are considered on standalone basis, markets look to be considerably expensive
► However, when we consider like BEER ratio, they look fairly valued.
18Debt
RBI’s Accommodative Stance Continues
RBI continue to provide ample liquidity CPI surpassed level of 6% while WPI remain above 10%
RBI has cut Repo rate by
RBI has maintained surplus 14 12.94
9000 115 bps since March 6.5
2020 liquidity throughout CY20 while Although WPI is at 12.94% currently, its 2Y
continuing further in CY21 12 CAGR is at 5.3% while that of CPI is 6.3%
8000 6.0
10
7000
5.5 8
INR Billion
6.3
% Y-o-Y
6000 6
%
5.0
5000 4
4.5 2
4000
0
3000 4.0
-2
2000 3.5 -4
Interbank Liquidity Repo Rate - RHS CPI Inflation WPI Inflation
Source: Bloomberg Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research, News articles
► RBI, in their policy meet concluded on 4th June, decided to keep repo rate unchanged while continuing with accommodative stance till
the economic recovery is well secured.
► RBI announced the second round of GSP of INR 1.2 lakh crore for Q2FY22 while balance of INR 40,000 cr as part of GSAP 1.0 was
conducted on 17th June.
► Higher fuel and services has pushed headline CPI inflation to a 6-month high of 6.3% in May-21, strongly beating the consensus of 5.4%.
WPI, on the other hand, came in at 12.9% reflecting a negative base and commodity price uptick. The southwest monsoon being strong
and well distributed spatially will bode well for agricultural output and subsequent deterring for CPI.
20Yields Remain Flat In June
Yields at longer end have softened after RBI interventions Leading to slight flattening of the yield curve
6.25 320 306
6.20
6.13 280 265
6.05
240
bps
6.00
5.91 200
%
5.80 5.75
5.72 160
Yields spiked up
post budget 120 97
5.60
80
5.49
5.40 40
India 5Y Gilt India 10Y Gilt India Yield Curve (10Y - 3M G-sec) LT Avg (7 years period)
Data Source: Bloomberg Data Source: Worldgovernmentbonds.com
► Yields at longer end of the curve remained almost flat in the last two months after normalizing from the high of 6.25% in March. That
has prompted the sovereign yield curve to flatten marginally.
► RBI is not looking to target yields at a certain number and giving more emphasis on orderly evolution of yield curve. It is expected,
RBI will continue to intervene in market through GSAP, OMOs etc. to continue with its dovish stance.
21Diminishing Opportunities In High Quality
Credit
Spike in corporate Bond Spreads but still below LT averages The gap between AA and AAA has widened
200 90
82
80
150 128
70
bps
bps
100 107
73 60
54
50
50
25
0 40
May-20
May-21
Jul-20
Dec-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Apr-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
Feb-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Jan-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
5 Y AAA Spread 5 Y AAA Long Term Avg 5 Y AA Spread 5 Y AA Long Term Avg 5Y AA - 5Y AAA LT average (since Jan 2014)
5 Year Bonds including Corporates, Banks & NBFCs; spreads are over 5Y G-sec 5 Year Bonds including Corporates, Banks & NBFCs
Data Source: Bloomberg Data Source: Bloomberg
► Considering spreads have reduced a lot since last year which calls for opportunistic selection of high yield credit as gap between
AA and AAA is still visible.
► High yield credit papers issued by select corporates can be considered subject to proper due diligence.
22Currency & Gold
INR – Depreciation In June
EMFX performance in June 2021 RBI continues to increase its forex levels
6.00 700
609.0
4.00 600
USD Billion
2.00 500
%
0.00
400
-2.00
-2.31 300
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
-4.00
RBI Forex Reserves
Data Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Wealth Research Data Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Wealth Research
► USDINR depreciated in June, in line with most of the EMFX as dollar strengthened aided by strong US economic recovery
► With crude oil rising and commodity reflation theme, we continue to hold the depreciative bias until INR 76 levels
24Proprietary Gold Model
Gold prices have rallied February onwards with some correction in June
2,100 2,063
Sell call on
2,000 1st June
1,900.19
1,900
1,800
-6.5%
1,779
1,700 1,724
Buy call on
1,600 Buy call on 23rd June
1st March
1,500
Gold in USD
Data Source: Investing.com
► Our model had generated a buy signal at USD 1723 on 1st March 2021 and a sell signal has been triggered on 1st June
2021. In this period, Gold has given a return of over 10%.
► Our model has re-entered gold at USD 1,779, thereby protecting investors from a ~6.5% fall in gold prices in 20 days.
25Equity: Sector Performance
Percentage Change
Index Price
1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months 24 Months
Nifty 15,722 0.89% 7.02% 12.44% 52.60% 42.56%
Nifty 50 USD 7,329 -1.43% 5.27% 10.53% 55.01% 21.99%
IT 29,168 7.57% 12.81% 20.27% 97.69% 124.60%
Auto 10,600 1.03% 7.48% 15.30% 57.76% -8.71%
Bank 34,772 -2.12% 4.41% 11.22% 62.71% 27.00%
FMCG 36,093 2.41% 3.33% 5.61% 20.06% 33.05%
Pharma 14,309 1.83% 16.59% 10.79% 43.30% 52.47%
Metals 5,216 1.05% 31.14% 60.26% 161.92% 28.28%
Infrastructure 4,339 0.26% 6.15% 18.85% 43.10% 19.89%
Real Estate 344 2.32% 2.93% 9.59% 69.73% -0.22%
PSU Bank 2,519 3.81% 16.73% 43.71% 76.40% -31.59%
Media 1,798 2.05% 16.32% 9.01% 33.81% -48.48%
CNX Midcap 26,971 4.64% 13.83% 29.40% 83.42% 29.76%
BSE Small Cap 25,232 6.93% 22.19% 39.42% 103.80% 34.81%
Source: Bloomberg; Data as on 30th June 2021 27High Frequency Indicators
FY22YTD
Industry(YoY, %) FY21 (Avg) May-21* Apr-21* Mar-21* Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20 Apr-20
(Avg)
Credit To Industry 1.1 0.2 1.1 0.6 -0.2 -1.3 -1.2 -0.7 -1.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 2.3 1.7 1.7
Cement Production -2.1 -14.1 -2.1 -0.3 -5.5 -5.9 -7.2 -7.3 2.8 -3.5 -14.5 -13.5 -6.8 -21.4 -86.0
CV (Quarterly) -32.8 -25.2 -1.2 -20.1 -84.8
MHCV (Quarterly) -44.1 -28.6 -4.8 -48.9 -94.1
LCV (Quarterly) -27.7 -23.0 0.2 -8.5 -79.7
Coal Production -3.8 -1.1 -3.8 2.1 -4.5 -1.9 2.1 3.3 11.7 21.2 3.4 -5.7 -15.5 -14.0 -15.6
Steel Production -7.3 -11.9 -7.3 -0.3 -1.8 2.6 2.6 -0.5 4.0 2.8 0.5 -6.5 -23.3 -40.4 -82.8
Eight Core Industry -1.5 -7.7 -1.5 0.9 -4.6 0.2 0.3 -1.4 -0.9 -0.2 -6.9 -7.6 -12.4 -21.4 -37.9
IIP Mining 0.1 -8.8 0.1 2.2 -5.5 -3.7 -4.2 -6.7 -1.3 1.4 -8.7 -12.7 -19.5 -20.4 -26.9
IIP Electricity 3.4 -1.3 3.4 6.0 0.1 5.5 5.1 3.5 11.3 4.9 -1.8 -2.5 -10.0 -14.9 -22.9
IIP Manufacturing -0.4 -11.9 -0.4 -0.5 -3.7 -2.0 2.1 -2.0 4.1 -0.2 -7.6 -11.4 -17.0 -37.9 -66.6
IIP Capital Goods -7.5 -21.3 -7.5 -4.7 -4.2 -9.6 1.5 -7.4 3.5 -1.2 -14.4 -22.8 -37.4 -65.9 -92.7
IIP Infrastructure/Construction -0.1 -11.3 -0.1 1.1 -4.7 0.3 2.7 1.7 9.9 4.0 0.0 -8.2 -18.3 -39.0 -85.0
Capacity Utilisation 60.1 63.3 66.6 63.3 47.3
India Money Supply(M3) 10.7 12.0 10.8 10.7 10.3 12.8 12.1 12.4 12.5 11.6 12.2 12.6 13.2 12.4 11.7 10.8
Manufacturing PMI (abs) 55.5 50.2 50.8 55.5 55.4 57.5 57.7 56.4 56.3 58.9 56.8 52.0 46.0 47.2 30.8 27.4
FY22YTD
Services (YoY, %) FY21 (Avg) May-21* Apr-21* Mar-21* Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20 Apr-20
(Avg)
Services PMI(abs) 50.2 41.7 46.4 54.0 54.6 55.3 52.8 52.3 53.7 54.1 49.8 41.8 34.2 33.7 12.6 5.4
Credit To Services 5.8 9.2 5.8 4.4 9.3 8.4 8.8 8.8 9.5 9.1 8.6 10.1 10.7 11.2 11.2
Airport Passenger Traffic -31.7 -66.3 -31.7 -22.5 -42.9 -46.6 -50.4 -56.5 -62.2 -69.6 -78.6 -84.2 -85.3 -97.5 -99.8
Airport cargo -2.3 -27.6 -2.3 -4.4 -8.6 -11.0 -8.9 -12.9 -13.9 -16.2 -29.4 -34.6 -40.6 -67.7 -82.9
Railway Freight Traffic 5.1 0.2 4.6 5.1 4.4 5.5 8.7 8.7 9.0 15.4 15.5 3.9 -4.6 -7.7 -21.3 -35.3
E-Toll collections (Inr Bn) 27.7 18.9 21.3 27.7 30.8 25.5 23.0 23.0 21.0 21.4 19.4 17.1 16.2 15.1 11.4 2.5
FY22YTD
Demand(YoY, %) FY21 (Avg) May-21* Apr-21* Mar-21* Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20 Apr-20
(Avg)
Personal Loans 12.4 10.3 12.4 12.6 9.6 9.1 9.5 10.0 9.3 9.2 10.6 11.2 10.5 10.6 12.1
Rural Wage Growth 5.2 5.7 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.3 5.0 5.0 6.4 7.6 7.9 6.8 4.0
MGNREGA Work Demanded (crores) 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 3.2 4.5 3.7 1.3
MGNREGA Work Provided (crores) 1.6 2.2 1.7 1.6 2.3 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.8 3.9 3.3 1.1
Non-Oil Imports -0.6 -13.2 -7.6 6.3 9.3 16.3 15.8 14.3 -1.2 -2.2 -14.3 -20.1 -28.5 -45.2 -43.4 -59.7
Passenger cars -25.2 -13.1 -46.2 -4.3 -6.1 4.4 -1.2 8.4 -2.8 9.7 28.9 14.1 -12.0 -58.0 -89.9 -53.3
Vans -35.8 -14.2 -67.2 -4.3 -25.1 4.3 -6.0 41.1 8.2 29.2 10.6 3.8 -18.8 -62.1 -86.4 -69.9
Utility Vehicles 5.0 4.5 -16.2 26.3 12.0 45.4 37.3 19.8 17.2 20.5 24.5 15.5 13.9 -31.2 -75.5 -44.7
POL Consumption -7.5 -10.3 -11.3 -3.6 -2.0 -4.9 -3.8 -1.7 -3.5 2.5 -4.4 -16.0 -12.1 -9.0 -19.4 -48.7
Two wheelers -38.4 -8.9 -54.8 -22.1 1.9 10.2 6.6 7.4 13.4 16.9 11.6 3.0 -15.2 -38.6 -83.8 -39.8
Three wheelers -7.5 -64.1 -11.3 -3.6 -2.0 -33.8 -56.8 -58.9 -57.6 -60.9 -71.9 -75.3 -77.2 -80.2 -95.3 -100.0
Consumer Price Inflation 5.3 6.2 6.3 4.3 5.5 5.0 4.1 4.6 6.9 7.6 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.2 6.3 7.2
Core CPI( ex food and fuel) 6.0 5.5 6.6 5.5 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.1 4.9 4.8
Wholesale Price Inflation 11.7 1.1 12.9 10.5 7.4 4.2 2.0 1.2 2.3 1.3 1.3 0.2 -0.3 -1.8 -3.4 -1.6
*2-Year CAGR instead of YoY 28
Source: Edelweiss Wealth ResearchHigh Frequency Indicators
FY22TD
FY21TD as
Fiscal- Centre (INR tn) as May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20 Apr-20
a % RE
a % BE
GST 18.4 81.8 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3
Total Receipts 7.4 104.5 1.5 2.6 1.3 1.6 2.9 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.3
Total Expenditure 6.5 102.6 2.3 6.9 3.0 2.4 3.7 2.5 1.8 2.3 1.9 2.4 3.0 2.0 3.1
Capital Expenditure 8.5 98.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Revenue Expenditure 6.1 102.3 1.8 6.7 2.6 1.8 3.1 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.7 1.8 2.8
E-Way Bills (Vol. Cr.) - 3.8 5.8 7.1 6.4 6.3 6.4 5.8 6.4 5.7 4.9 4.8 4.3 2.5 0.9
FY22YTD
External/ Markets FY21 (Avg) May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20 Apr-20
(Avg)
Indian Rupee(USD/INR) 73.9 74.2 73.3 74.5 72.8 72.8 73.1 73.6 74.2 73.5 73.5 74.7 75.0 75.7 75.7 76.2
REER 36 trade weighted 119.8 121.2 121.2 121.2 121.0 123.1 122.0 118.8 118.8 116.8 117.6 116.0
FX Reserves USD Bn 593.1 547.2 598 588 579 584 590 580 575 561 542 541 535 507 493 479
Trade Balance USD Bn -10.7 -8.2 -6.3 -15.1 -13.9 -12.6 -14.5 -15.4 -9.8 -8.7 -2.7 -6.8 -4.8 0.8 -3.1 -6.8
Services Surplus USD Bn 8.1 7.1 8.1 7.9 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.2 6.8 7.0 7.0 6.8 7.2
Crude Indian Basket 65.2 44.6 67.0 63.3 64.8 61.4 54.6 49.9 43.5 40.8 41.4 44.2 43.3 40.6 29.7 20.5
CAD % GDP 2.0 -0.2 2.4 3.9
GSEC 10-Yr Yield % 6.0 6.0 5.99 6.07 6.19 6.09 5.92 5.93 5.88 5.91 6.00 5.98 5.81 6.00 6.05 6.21
NIFTY 1-Month Return % 3.1 4.7 6.5 -0.4 1.1 6.6 -2.5 7.8 11.4 3.5 -1.2 2.8 7.5 7.5 -2.8 14.7
FY22YTD
Flows FY21 (sum) May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20 Apr-20
(Sum)
FII Net Debt USD Bn -0.3 -4.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 1.0 -0.5 0.8 -0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -2.7 -2.0
FII Net Equity USD Bn -1.0 36.8 0.8 -1.7 2.4 3.0 1.9 7.3 9.6 2.5 -0.8 6.1 1.2 2.5 1.7 -0.5
Net FDI FLOWS USD Bn 4.6 46.8 2.8 1.8 -2.9 3.5 3.5 6.5 5.7 4.6 2.4 17.8 3.2 -0.8 2.0 1.4
Private Transfers USD Bn 54.7 19.3 18.4 17.0
ECB USD Bn 2.3 34.6 2.3 9.2 2.3 3.7 2.9 2.0 2.0 5.2 1.6 2.1 1.0 1.5 1.0
MFs Net Equity INR Bn 135.2 -259.6 100.8 34.4 91.1 -45.3 -92.5 -101.5 -129.1 -27.2 -7.3 -40.0 -24.8 2.4 52.6 62.1
SIP Flows Bn 174.1 960.6 88.2 85.9 91.8 75.2 80.2 84.2 73.0 78.0 77.9 77.9 78.3 79.2 81.2 83.7
India Mobility (Base:100) 77.8 73.2 54.5 77.8 92.8 88.0 87.2 87.2 81.3 77.3 71.0 62.6 59.6 61.6 46.7 34.2
*2-Year CAGR instead of YoY 29
Source: Edelweiss Wealth ResearchDisclaimer
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Entity Name Edelweiss Securities Limited
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30Disclaimer
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own Investment advisors
to determine the merits and risks of such investments. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risk. Kindly read the offer document / schemes document carefully
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This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in
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which could affect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs and Currency Derivatives, whose values are affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
The data contained in this document is only indicative / illustrative. Before opening any attachments please check them for viruses and defects.
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Entity Name Edelweiss Global Wealth Management Limited
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31Disclaimer
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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This document is prepared by Edelweiss Securities Ltd.. Edelweiss Securities Ltd. provided this document to Edelweiss Broking Ltd (EBL) for distributing to EBL’s client in India and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any
financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. This document should not be considered as an Investment advice. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. This document is
provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such
investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own Investment advisors to determine the
merits and risks of such investments. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risk. Kindly read the offer document / schemes document carefully before making an
investment.
This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in
part, for any purpose. This document is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or
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the information. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The information
provided in these document / remains, unless otherwise stated, the copyright of EBL. All layout, design, original artwork, concepts and other Intellectual Properties, remains the property and copyright of EBL and may not be used in any form or for any
purpose whatsoever by any party without the express written permission of the copyright holders.
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EBL and its associates, officer, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company(ies), mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities
and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the subject company/company(ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or have other potential/material conflict of
interest with respect to any information and opinions at the time of publication of document. EBL may have proprietary long/short position in the above mentioned scrip(s) and therefore should be considered as interested. The views provided herein are
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market factors, including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes in interest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government imposed exchange controls which could
affect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs and Currency Derivatives, whose values are affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
The data contained in this document is only indicative / illustrative. Before opening any attachments please check them for viruses and defects.
The data would be provided to the clients on an "as is" and "where-is" basis, without any warranty. Edelweiss or its subsidiaries and associated companies shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in providing the data due to
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