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Dual Use: Nuclear Power and Nuclear Weapons

Life in a Nuclear Powered Crowd
   Zia Mian and Alexander Glaser
The idea of a wondrous future pow-             United States and Soviet Union pro-        mistakes, in particular when perform-
ered by atomic energy is now a hun-            duced tens of thousands of nuclear         ing routine-operations over extended
dred years old. Fredrick Soddy and             weapons, and were joined as nuclear        periods. The past six decades have
Ernest Rutherford discovered in 1901           weapons states by the United King-         shown that nuclear technology does
that radioactivity was part of the             dom, France, China, Israel, India, and     not tolerate error.
process by which atoms changed from            Pakistan, and recently perhaps North              Nuclear energy is perhaps the
one kind to another and involved the           Korea. Many other states tried and for     primary example of what are called
release of energy. Soon, Soddy was             a variety of reasons abandoned their       ‘high-risk technologies’ with ‘catas-
writing in popular magazines that ra-          nuclear weapons ambitions. Iran still      trophic potential’; for such tech-
dioactivity was a potentially “inex-           persists. Others may also try, as the      nologies, “no matter how effective
haustible” source of energy, and offer-        United States becomes ever more bel-       conventional safety devices are, there
ing a vision of an atomic future where         ligerent in remaking the world as it       is a form of accident that is inevitable,
it would be possible to “transform a           sees fit and meets resistance.             and such accidents are a ‘normal’ con-
desert continent, thaw the frozen                    At the same time, the peaceful       sequence of the system.”4 There is, in
poles, and make the whole earth one            use of nuclear power has fallen far        short, no escape from failures of the
smiling Garden of Eden.”1 The prom-            short of what was promised because         system. For those countries that have
ise of an “atomic age,” with nuclear en-       of the enduring problems of nuclear        nuclear facilities but have not yet had
ergy as the global, utopian technology         safety, high costs, nuclear prolifera-     a nuclear accident, it may only be a
for the satisfaction of human needs, has       tion, and public opposition. Nuclear       matter of time and luck. Continuing
been a recurring theme ever since.             industries have stagnated in the states    reliance on nuclear energy and build-
       Soddy also saw that atomic energy       that were pioneers in the technology       ing and operating more nuclear reac-
could possibly be used to create terrible      such as the United States, the United      tors only serves to increase the risk.
new weapons. It is perhaps no surprise         Kingdom, and Russia. Some states set              The consequences of a severe
in an international system dominated           up nuclear energy programs and then        accident at a large nuclear power reac-
by competing, armed nation-states that         decided to phase them out. What little     tor were made apparent by the 1986
the first practical application of atomic      new building is taking place, is in        Chernobyl disaster, which was trig-
energy came in 1945 when the United            states that came late into the nuclear     gered by errors of judgment by the re-
States built the first atomic bombs and        age, such as China and India.              actor operators. In its report on the
used them to destroy the Japanese cities             Despite this, a large-scale expan-   accident, the United Nations Scientif-
of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The bomb            sion of nuclear energy is being urged      ic Committee on the Effects of Atom-
was, American leaders said, the “win-          by some proponents as a way to grap-       ic Radiation noted that there was se-
ning weapon.”                                  ple with the problem of climate            vere radioactive contamination of
       This display of the awesome             change now being brought on by the         about 150,000 square kilometers of
power of atomic technology served to           accumulation of greenhouse gases           the former Soviet Union, and the fall-
revive and strengthen the visions of an        from burning fossil fuels over the past    out affected “practically every coun-
atomic solution to economic and social         hundred or so years. But amidst the        try in the northern hemisphere,” and
problems. American newspapers, for             talk of a second chance for nuclear en-    smaller amounts of radioactivity
instance, predicted an atomic utopia,          ergy, there is some recognition that a     penetrated into the southern hemi-
“a world of unlimited power, unlimit-          nuclear future may be dark.                sphere.5 Humanity was unavoidably
ed abundance – a world limited only                  We outline below some particu-       linked together on a global scale.
by man’s capacity to imagine new               lar concerns about nuclear safety and             A 2005 study by the Chernobyl
wants and needs.”2 Lewis Strauss, the          nuclear proliferation and suggest that     Forum estimated that around 4,000
head of the United States Atomic En-           any large-scale global expansion of        people will eventually die due to radia-
ergy Commission famously declared              nuclear energy generation will bring       tion exposure from the accident.6
in 1954 that nuclear energy meant “our         new dangers and not be of much help        However, the Chernobyl Forum’s Ex-
children will enjoy in their homes elec-       in dealing with climate change.            pert Group on Health, coordinated by
trical energy too cheap to meter.”3                                                       the World Health Organization, sug-
       What the world saw over the             Normal Nuclear Accidents                   gested in its report that there might be
past fifty years was the construction                                                     over 8,000 deaths from cancer and
of vast facilities for the production of       It is one of humanity’s oldest and most    leukemia because of the accident.7
highly enriched uranium and plu-               hard-earned pieces of wisdom that          There have also been long-term conse-
tonium for nuclear weapons. The                even the best-trained people make          quences for the survivors and their fel-

INESAP Information Bulletin No.26, June 2006                      4
Life in a Nuclear Powered Crowd

low citizens. A 2002 study commis-          many of our developments secret as           ful of states (even though under the
sioned by UNDP and UNICEF with              possible; we would locate our plants,        NPT all signatories are allowed to de-
the support of UN-OCHA and                  not where they would do the most             velop and exploit these technologies).
WHO found that in Ukraine, Belarus,         good for the production of power, but        These policies are a clear recognition of
and Russia a total of over 118,000 peo-     where they would do the most good            the proliferation dangers of civil nu-
ple were evacuated and over 230,000         for protection against enemy attack.”10      clear power and the particular prob-
resettled (and over 11,000 still expect-           The difference in scale between       lems of uranium enrichment and plu-
ing resettlement) because of the acci-      civilian and military nuclear programs       tonium reprocessing facilities and
dent and observed that “[t]he affected      is important. A 40 MW(th) reactor like       attendant capabilities.
population – those exposed to radio-        CIRUS in India produces enough plu-
active fallout, remaining in the affected   tonium for about two nuclear weapons         Nuclear Futures
areas, or forced to relocate – continue     a year, while one of India’s small,
to face disproportionate suffering in       roughly 700MW(th) power reactors             Nuclear energy is now being offered
terms of health, social conditions, and     (which produces ca. 200 MW electric          as a way to solve the problem of
economic opportunity… Many have             power) can yield about ten times that        global-warming-induced             climate
found it difficult to adapt and continue    much plutonium a year. A similar case        change. To significantly reduce
to face serious psychological, econom-      holds for uranium enrichment; about          greenhouse gas emissions, nuclear
ic, and social problems.”8                  150 tSWU (or 150,000 separative work         power would have to expand sever-
      The study went on to note that        units) are required to produce the an-       al-fold. It is worth asking what
there have been broader and more en-        nual low-enriched uranium fuel for a         would be the proliferation implica-
during social and economic conse-           1,000 MW(e) nuclear power reactor,           tions of such an expansion. We ig-
quences, observing that “[t]he acci-        while ten percent of this enrichment         nore for the moment whether nu-
dent has also had a continuing impact       capacity could produce 100 kg of high-       clear energy would in fact help
on the opportunities and well-being         ly enriched uranium, enough for sever-       lessen climate change as well as the
of a much wider circle of the inhabi-       al nuclear weapons.                          political and economic obstacles that
tants of Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia,             There is a long history of how        make such an expansion scenario un-
through the negative image that it has      states have inter-woven their civil and      realistic in the first place.
created for large areas of these coun-      military nuclear ambitions and                     Here, for illustrative purposes,
tries. It has imposed a heavy burden        capabilities. UK, France, China, Is-         let us assume that nuclear power
on the national budgets through the         rael, India, and Pakistan built their        grows to about 1,500 GW(e), which
cost of clean-up, compensation and          nuclear weapons programs on an               corresponds to a four-fold expansion
recovery… These commitments have            infrastructure developed supposedly          from today’s level and, if achieved by
diverted resources away from other          for nuclear energy. Iraq, North Korea,       2050, would be equivalent to only
priorities, such as health, education       and Iran, all signatories of the 1970        about 28% of the estimated global
and investment.”9 Future generations        nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,            electricity supply, compared to
will pay the price.                         concealed their nuclear weapons am-          about 15% today. This is about the
                                            bitions behind a ‘peaceful’ nuclear          upper limit for nuclear capacity for
Normal Nuclear Proliferation                program. At the same time, it should         2050 adopted in a 2003 MIT study,
                                            be noted, the US has started produc-         The Future of Nuclear Power.12
The fact that a nuclear energy com-         ing tritium for its nuclear weapons                Most studies on the future of nu-
plex can be established for peaceful        stockpile at civil power reactors.11         clear power simply assume a global nu-
purposes and then put to use for pro-              It was recognition of the overlap     clear capacity of 1,000 GW(e), 1,500
ducing weapons materials was recog-         between civil and military nuclear ma-       GW(e), or sometimes even 10,000
nized very early on. Robert Oppen-          terials and capabilities that led to the     GW(e), as if it would “just be there,” i.e.
heimer, the head of the United States’      system of safeguards on civil nuclear        assuming nuclear power plants located
Manhattan project that produced the         facilities, starting in the 1950s. As part   nowhere in particular. The MIT study
first atomic bombs in 1945, noted in        of the NPT, non-nuclear weapon states        did not shy away from making predic-
1946 that if there were an effort to ban    are required to declare and open their       tions about the actual distribution of nu-
all nuclear weapons:                        civil nuclear facilities for international   clear capacities in a global expansion sce-
      “We would not make atomic             inspection, so as to detect significant      nario and estimated that 56 countries
weapons, at least not to start with, but    amounts of material being diverted for       could have commercial nuclear plants in
we would build enormous plants, and         illicit nuclear weapons purposes. One        a 1,500 GW(e) world, including many
we would design these plants in such a      measure of the failure of these efforts is   that currently have none, such as Viet-
way that they could be converted with       that the United States has been seeking      nam, Indonesia, the Philippines,
the maximum ease and the minimum            to deny North Korea, Iraq, and Iran          Malaysia, Thailand, Australia, New
time delay to the production of atomic      key elements of the nuclear fuel cycle,      Zealand, Norway, Italy, Austria, Poland,
weapons saying, this is just in case        and is now proposing to limit future         Turkey, Venezuela, Portugal, Israel,
somebody two-times us; we would             access to uranium enrichment and plu-        Libya, Algeria, Uzbekistan, Morocco,
stockpile uranium; we would keep as         tonium reprocessing to all but a hand-       Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Egypt, etc.13

                                                                5                        INESAP Information Bulletin No.26, June 2006
Zia Mian and Alexander Glaser

FIGURE 1: Hypothetical distribution of enrichment capacities for a 1,500 GW(e) nuclear world, in which 56 countries operate commercial power re-
actors and 16 countries operate large-scale uranium enrichment facilities with a global capacity of 225,000 tSWU per year. Note that only 5 tSWU suf-
fice to produce sufficient highly enriched uranium for one nuclear weapon a year.

      One can infer the nuclear fuel              fears about proliferation, but in a fu-            world will inevitably lead to a fur-
cycle infrastructure required to sup-             ture built around a large expansion of             ther increase in large-scale and
port such a crowd of nuclear pow-                 nuclear power, Iran might operate en-              small-scale research and develop-
ered countries. We assume continued               richment facilities with a total capaci-           ment (R&D) activities around the
reliance on the currently dominant                ty of almost 3,000 tSWU/yr. For com-               world. With respect to proliferation
pressurized water reactor technolo-               parison, less than 5 tSWU are enough,              concerns, this is the single most im-
gy, using low-enriched fuel based on              in principle, to produce sufficient                portant dilemma of nuclear power: a
the once-through fuel cycle. From a               highly enriched uranium for one nu-                nuclear program that is small – or
non-proliferation perspective, this is            clear weapon a year.                               even completely irrelevant – from a
superior to alternative scenarios in-                   Similarly, more countries may                commercial perspective is generally
volving reprocessing and separation               explore plutonium reprocessing, in                 large enough to support a substantial
of plutonium, which is a directly nu-             spite of its extremely unfavorable eco-            nuclear weapons program.
clear-weapon-usable material. This                nomics and environmental and prolif-                      It is likely that if nuclear power
reactor-fleet, however, would require             eration concerns, as a way to defer de-            begins to expand rapidly on a global
a huge global enrichment capacity                 cisions about the final disposal of                scale, there would be increasing con-
(see Figure 1).14                                 nuclear waste. This reckless strategy of           cerns about nuclear proliferation, as
      The projected enrichment                    kicking the nuclear can down the road              many countries explore many new
infrastructure is daunting, both in size          for future generations to deal with has            technologies. Thus, even if nuclear en-
and distribution. Countries with no               already been adopted by a few states,              ergy ultimately fails to expand as
or negligible current commercial nu-              including Japan and perhaps soon by                imagined by some today, we will have
clear power programs – such as Iran,              the United States as part of its Global            to face lots of ‘proliferation noise’ in
Pakistan, Mexico, or Indonesia –                  Nuclear Energy Partnership.                        the international system that mixes up
would deploy and operate large-scale                    The much greater stocks and                  and makes it difficult to identify and
enrichment facilities. It is predictable          flows of uranium and plutonium as-                 deal with ‘real’ proliferation as well as
that global enrichment operations at              sociated with nuclear energy pro-                  legitimate and unwarranted fears of
this scale would periodically lead to             grams require an extremely prudent                 covert military programs. As the Iraq
suspicions, allegations, and inter-               approach with respect to the idea of               war showed, some states may not hes-
national crises. Iran’s plan for its              expanding nuclear power in the fu-                 itate in feeding and then taking advan-
Natanz facility to have a maximum                 ture. At the same time, any effort to              tage of proliferation fears as a pretext
capacity of 250 tSWU/yr have incited              expand nuclear power around the                    to go to war.

INESAP Information Bulletin No.26, June 2006                             6
Life in a Nuclear Powered Crowd

Nuclear Power and Climate                     uncertain but high future costs of nu-        for these problems, as the 2003 MIT
Change                                        clear energy; nuclear energy’s need for       study The Future of Nuclear Power
                                              a large, centralized power generation         was compelled to conclude:
The new argument being advanced for           and distribution system that serves to               “We have not found and, based on
nuclear energy is that it offers a solution   hinder further development of small-          current knowledge, do not believe it is
to climate change, or at least to lessen      scale renewable and distributed energy        realistic to expect that there are new re-
the scale of global warming by reducing       supplies; as a large-scale supply-side        actor and fuel cycle technologies that si-
future greenhouse gas emissions. But          technological ‘fix,’ nuclear energy un-       multaneously overcome the problems of
nuclear power would primarily con-            dermines energy efficiency options;           cost, safety, waste, and proliferation.”21
tribute to electricity production and,        and lastly, the security and safety risks            Nuclear energy also offers a mar-
therefore, would be unable to mitigate        associated with nuclear proliferation.19      ginal but costly solution to the prob-
about two thirds of global CO2 emis-          These problems are worth keeping in           lem of climate change. The brittleness
sions, which are due to the fuels-used-       mind in any debate on the future of           of nuclear power actually creates dan-
directly (FUDs) in industry, transporta-      nuclear energy in any country.                gers for constraining future green-
tion, and the residential/commercial                 There are alternatives. For exam-      house gas emissions.22 Even a single
sectors.15 The bulk of greenhouse emis-       ple, a 1998 study performed for the           major accident is likely to stop any at-
sions would remain to be addressed.           European Union developed a scenario           tempt to sustain current levels or to ex-
      Nuclear energy can at best hope         for a European energy system based on         pand nuclear power – in fact, if such an
to substitute for the use of coal, the        renewable energy sources that would           accident occurred in the U.S. or Wes-
dominant fossil fuel used to produce          reduce CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050           tern Europe, it would mean the end of
electricity. But coal is very abundant        (compared to 1990) and phase out nu-          nuclear power in these regions. Build-
and inexpensive, and it will remain so        clear energy at the same time.20 A cen-       ing more nuclear power risks the dan-
for many decades to come. It is there-        tral finding of this and similar studies is   ger of being stranded up the nuclear
fore naïve to assume that coal will sim-      that there is no simple, one-size tech-       creek without a paddle, where having
ply be abandoned on a global scale.           nological solution to energy produc-          invested enormous resources in an ex-
Countries with large domestic reserves        tion that can be applied everywhere.          pensive and inflexible technology, and
of low-cost coal and rapidly growing          The identified energy systems are very        having built up a formidable nuclear
economies will use their coal resources;      heterogeneous, strongly depending on          legacy, there would be no significant
China for instance plans to increase its      country-specific conditions: offshore         contribution to meeting global energy
reliance on both coal and nuclear ener-       wind electricity dominates in Den-            needs. In such a situation, clean and
gy, with predictions of a doubling of the     mark, while solar-thermal and photo-          safe renewable alternatives could take a
use of coal for power and heat genera-        voltaic electricity is strong in Spain and    long time to come on stream.
tion in two decades.16 Concerns about         other South European countries. This                 Given all this, it is worth asking
climate change may slow down and              must be accompanied by substantial            why nuclear energy is still on the table
limit the scale of this process at best.      reductions in the demand for primary          as an option. A large part of it may be
      It seems that if no solution to the     energy in all sectors of modern society.      due to a continuing identification of
“coal problem” can be found, then no          The list of necessary steps is long and       nuclear technology as an advanced
solution to the climate change problem        these steps have to be taken swiftly.         technology, as representing the future.
exists. However, compared to FUDs,            With every year that passes without           It has been observed that nuclear ener-
almost complete “decarbonization” of          decisive action, further bottlenecks are      gy proponents always talk in the ‘fu-
electricity production is relatively          created and the costs of changing poli-       ture tense,’ that is “in terms of what it
straightforward and can be done using         cy become ever greater.                       will bring rather than what it has al-
existing non-nuclear technologies.17                                                        ready wrought or what it requires
This may be more attractive than in-          Conclusion                                    from society to maintain operation.”23
vesting in large-scale nuclear expansion.                                                   This succeeds in so far as the public
      This is recognized in a major           The hopes invested in nuclear techno-         and elites continue to believe in an ide-
2006 report by the UK government’s            logy are as old as the basic scientific       ology of ‘progress,’ ceaselessly ‘rising
Sustainable Development Commission            ideas that underlie it. The past hundred      living standards,’ the need for ‘growth’
which observed that building new nu-          years have shown the many problems            in the production and consumption of
clear plants is not an answer to tackling     with nuclear technology. Particularly         material goods, and insist on comfort-
climate change. It concluded that dou-        grave are the risks and consequences of       able habits of inefficient energy con-
bling nuclear capacity in Great Britain       a nuclear accident and the dangers of         sumption, all without regard to conse-
would make only a small impact on re-         supposedly peaceful nuclear facilities,       quence for society or planet.
ducing carbon emissions by 2035.18            material, and knowledge being used                   The tension between nuclear fears
The report identified five major prob-        for nuclear weapons programs. Con-            and a reluctance to give up the actually
lems to continued or increased reliance       tinued reliance and any large-scale ex-       existing comforts of everyday life is re-
on nuclear power: the absence of a            pansion of nuclear energy would per-          vealed dramatically in a 2006 Interna-
proven method for safe and secure             petuate and worsen these dangers. And         tional Atomic Energy Agency public
long-term nuclear waste disposal; the         there is no imminent technological fix        opinion survey conducted in 18 coun-

                                                                  7                         INESAP Information Bulletin No.26, June 2006
Zia Mian and Alexander Glaser

                                                      UN Chernobyl Forum Expert Group                          gration of Renewable Energy Sources into the
tries that found most people are op-                  “Health,” Working Draft, August 31, 2005;                European Energy System, Physica-Verlag, 1998.
posed to building new nuclear reactors                www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/a_e/cher-            21   MIT, op.cit., p. 76.
but seem to support continued opera-                  nobyl/EGH%20Master%20file%202005.                   22   For the idea of ‘brittle’ energy systems, see:
tion of existing reactors. The poll con-              08.24.pdf; Table 16.4 (p. 145) gives a model-            Amory B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins,
ducted in states with and without large               based prediction of over 8,000 deaths from               Brittle Power: Energy Strategy for National
                                                      excess cancer, and Table 16.2 (p. 141) gives             Security, Brick House Publishing, 2001;
nuclear industries found that overall                 216 emergency worker deaths eventually at-               www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid1011.php.
59% were opposed to building new                      tributable to radiation.                            23   John Byrne and Steven Hoffman, The Ideol-
plants while 62% of respondents said             8    The Human Consequences of the Chernobyl                  ogy of Progress and the Globalization of
existing nuclear facilities should contin-            Nuclear Accident: A Strategy for Recovery,               Nuclear Power, in: John Byrne and Steven
ue to be used.24 This suggests that the               A Report Commissioned by UNDP and                        Hoffman (eds.), Governing The Atom: The
                                                      UNICEF with the support of UN-OCHA                       politics of risk, New Brunswick: Transaction
door will slowly close on the nuclear                 and WHO, January 2002; www.undp.org/                     Publishers, 1996, p. 12.
future as old nuclear power plants fi-                dpa/publications/chernobyl.pdf.                     24   International Atomic Energy Agency
nally shut down and plans for new                9    Ibid.                                                    (IAEA), Global Public Opinion on Nuclear
plants command no public support.                10   J. Robert Oppenheimer, Failure to Achieve                Issues and the IAEA - Final Report from 18
       Rather than wait for nuclear ener-             International Control of Atomic Energy, in:              Countries, 2006; www.iaea.org/Publications/
                                                      Morton Grodzins and Eugene Rabinowitch                   Reports /gponi_report2005.pdf.
gy to wither away, the international                  (eds.), The Atomic Age, Simon and Schuster,
community should make a virtue of a                   1963, p. 55.
necessity. We need to plan collectively          11   Kenneth Bergeron, Nuclear Weapons: The
how to phase out reliance on nuclear en-              Death of No Dual-use, Bulletin of the
ergy, invest in energy conservation and               Atomic Scientists, January/February 2004,           This article has first been published in
                                                      pp. 15-17; www.thebulletin.org/article.
efficiency and renewable sources of en-                                                                   INES Newsletter, No 52, April 2006,
                                                      php?art_ofn= jf04bergeron.
ergy, and explore paths towards a safe,          12   Massachusetts Institute of Technology               as part of a discussion on the pros and
more secure, and ecologically sustain-                (MIT), The Future of Nuclear Power: An              cons of nuclear energy. PDF files of
able form of social life and economy.                 Interdisciplinary MIT Study, 2003;                  INES Newsletters are available at
                                                      http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower. If this            www.inesglobal.com/newsletter/New
                                                      four-fold nuclear expansion was achieved by
                                                                                                          letter_main.html.
1 Spencer R. Weart, Nuclear Fear: A History           2100, nuclear energy would be about the same
  Of Images, Harvard University Press, 1988,          fraction of total electricity capacity that it is
  p. 6.                                               today assuming a business as usual scenario.
2 Paul Boyer, By The Bomb’s Early Light:         13   The MIT study generated a country-by-
  American Thought And Culture At The                 country distribution of nuclear capacity
  Dawn Of The Atomic Age, University of               based on “various country-specific factors,
  North Carolina Press, 1985, pp. 111-113.            such as current nuclear power deployment,
3 Arjun Makhijani and Scott Saleska, The Nu-          urbanization, stage of economic develop-
  clear Power Deception: U.S. Nuclear                 ment, and energy resource base.” MIT,
  Mythology From Electricity ‘Too Cheap To            op.cit., p. 111.
  Meter’ To ‘Inherently Safe’ Reactors, Apex     14   The global distribution of enrichment capac-
  Press, 1999, p. xix.                                ities in Figure 1 is based on our conservative
4 Charles Perrow, Normal Accidents:                   assumption that only countries with an in-
  Living With High-Risk Technologies,                 stalled nuclear capacity of at least 10 GW(e)
  Basic Books, 1984, pp. 3-4.                         would acquire domestic enrichment plants.
5 United Nations Scientific Committee                 In addition, only some major exporters of
  on the Effects of Atomic Radiation,                 uranium would ultimately do so, too (here:
  Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation:          Australia, Canada, and South Africa). Not
  UNSCEAR 2000 report to the General As-              counting individual countries in Western
  sembly – Volume 2, United Nations, 2000,            Europe, 16 countries would provide enrich-
  pp. 453-566.                                        ment services. The remaining users of nu-
6 Chernobyl’s Legacy: Health, Environmental           clear energy would be pure “reactor-states.”
  and Socio-Economic Impacts, Chernobyl          15   International Energy Agency, CO2 from
                                                      Fuel Combustion - Fact Sheet, 2005;
  Forum September 2005; www.iaea.org/                 www.iea.org/textbase/papers/2005/co2_fact.
  NewsCenter/Focus/Chernobyl/pdfs/05-                 pdf.
  8601_Chernobyl.pdf. The Chernobyl Forum        16   He Youguo, China‘s Coal Demand
  includes International Atomic Energy                Outlook for 2020 and Analysis of Coal
  Agency, World Health Organization                   Supply Capacity, International Energy
                                                                                                          Zia Mian is a research scientist and Alexan-
  (WHO), United Nations Development Pro-              Agency; www.iea.org/Textbase/work/2003/             der Glaser is a member of the research staff
  gramme (UNDP), Food and Agriculture Or-             beijing/4Youg.pdf.                                  in the Program on Science and Global Se-
  ganization, United Nations Environment         17   Robert H. Williams, Advanced Energy Supply          curity at Princeton University, USA. They are
  Programme (UNEP), United Nations Office             Technologies, in: UNDP, World Energy As-
  for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
                                                                                                          also members of the core research and co-
                                                      sessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sus-
  (UN-OCHA), United Nations Scientific                tainability, 2000, pp. 274-329.
                                                                                                          ordination staff of the International Panel on
  Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radia-      18   UK Sustainable Development Commission,              Fissile Materials and of the International Net-
  tion (UNSCEAR), the World Bank, and the             The Role of Nuclear Power in a Low Carbon           work of Engineers and Scientists Against
  governments of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine.        Economy, 2006; www.sd-commission.org.               Proliferation (INESAP). They can be con-
7 World Health Organization, Health Effects           uk/pages/060306.html.                               tacted at zia@princeton.edu and aglaser@
  of the Chernobyl Accident and Special          19   Ibid.
  Health Care Programmes, Report of the                                                                   princeton.edu.
                                                 20   LTI-Research Group (ed.), Long-Term Inte-

INESAP Information Bulletin No.26, June 2006                               8
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