Météo-France progress and plans - Cliquez pour modifier le style des sous-titres du masque

Météo-France progress and
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               plans
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          C. Fischer (Météo-France)
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 Joint ALADIN GA / HIRLAM Council
    Krakow, 22 November 2017

Outline

 Operational changes and e-suites in ARPEGE and
  AROME
 New applications based on AROME
 Highlight on AROME R&D : improved versions of
  the AROME Overseas models
 Outlook on plans for the NWP systems at MF

ARPEGE recent changes and e-suite
 CY41T1_op1 : switch to Operations on 8 December 2015
 CY41T1_op2 : migration to BULL Phase 2, on 21 June 2016
 CY42_op2 : switch to Operations planned on 5 December 2017
   – ARPEGE physics:
        • Implementation of the SURFEX tiled surface scheme
   – Improvements in the assimilation of satellite radiances:
        •   New : GPM/GMI (US), FY3-C/MWHS2 (China),
        •   Denser : geostationary radiances, IASI (Infrared)
        •   More channels : SEVIRI, IASI
        •   On the whole, the increase of the volume of observational data assimilated is about +
            50 % for IASI data and + 30 % in total (of observations assimilated)
 CY43T2 expected : increased horizontal resolution of ARPEGE ; e-suite to
  start in spring 2018
   –   5 km resolution over Western Europe for deterministic model
   –   7.5 km resolution for global EPS forecasts (PEARP)
   –   Increased resolution also for the 4D-VAR analysis increments
   –   Observations : humidity observations from Aircraft, VarBC for aircraft data, etc.

ARPEGE e-suite evaluation in progress;
                      ARPEGE indicator (« IP18 »)

 Globally positive
  scores w/r to RS and
  ECMWF analysis
 Improved diagnostics
  of wind gusts
 Changes in forecast
  behaviour of T2m,
  RH2m and V10m
 Change of surface
  scheme (SURFEX)
  required to define and
  code a few conversion
  rules for some surface
  fields (LBC data)
 E-suite due to switch
  on 28 Nov 2017.

ARPEGE next horizontal resolution (2018)

    New horizontal resolutions for ARPEGE (about 5km over Western Europe), as well
    as global EDA and EPS systems

AROME recent changes and e-suite
 CY41T1_op1 : switch to Operations on 8 December 2015
 CY41T1_op2 : migration to BULL Phase 2, on 21 June 2016
 CY42_op2 : switch to Operations planned on 5 December 2017
   –   Same modifications as in ARPEGE for observations
   –   New cloud optical properties (collaboration with HIRLAM/DMI)
   –   Improvements in AROME-OM (Overseas versions of AROME)
   –   Code and system optimizations
 CY43T2 expected :
   – Several changes in observations (for ARPEGE) also apply to the AROME-
     France assimilation
   – Start assimilation of some European radar data (from OPERA)
   – Implement an AROME-France Ensemble Data Assimilation and use its data
        • to initialize the AROME-EPS (initial conditions perturbations)
        • to compute flow-dependent error variances for the deterministic 3D-VAR

AROME composite score and added value
        w/r to global models

AROME systems implemented
 AROME Overseas: five domains in dynamical adaptation from the IFS
  atmospheric fields and ARPEGE surface fields. In operations since 11
  February 2016.
 AROME-Nowcasting (“AROME-PI”): operational since 21 March 2016;
 AROME EPS (“PEARO”): in operational suite since July 2016;
 AROME Ensemble Data Assimilation (AEARO) planned to enter the e-
  suite AROME-France configuration with CY43T2 in 2018. The AROME
  EDA will be used to compute the initial conditions perturbations for the
  AROME-EPS, and would possibly also provide daily flow-dependent
  forecast error variances for the deterministic 3D-VAR AROME-France
  assimilation.

AROME Overseas recent
                     improvements
- New Sea Surface Temperature initialization, daily updated
- Coupling Arome with a 1D ocean mixing layer model (see Figure below)
- Ensure a smoother initial time stepping of dynamical adaptation (using « IAU »)
- Specifically tuned diffusion of hydrometeors

AROME Overseas recent
                     improvements
- New Sea Surface Temperature initialization, daily updated
- Coupling Arome with a 1D ocean mixing layer model
- Ensure a smoother initial time stepping of dynamical adaptation (using « IAU »)
- Specifically tuned diffusion of hydrometeors

                                                             Forecast Vmax ~ 75 m/s
                                                             Estimated Vmax ~ 82 m/s

                                                             Estimated error of timing
                                                             of cyclone along track
                                                             ~ 2h

Outlook : short term


    ARPEGE 5km over Western Europe

    Introduce an AROME ensemble data assimilation

    Change from two to four AROME ensemble forecasts per day

    Work on single-precision runs, with a potential, at least partial,
    benefit first in AROME ensemble

Outlook : longer term (2019 and beyond)


    Physics : new surface schemes in SURFEX, new microphysics
    scheme “LIMA”, etc.

    Dynamics : continue work on solutions for dynamical core
    preserving the ability to run long time steps

    Data Assimilation :
    
        EnVar data assimilation, with major contributions to OOPS
    
        Observations: improved assimilation of aircraft data, satellite radiances (all-sky),
        add Lidar winds, more European radar data (OPERA)
    
        Renewed surface data assimilation

    Expect a long lasting effort of recoding the NWP system
    (OOPS, COPE, ESCAPE aspects) => likely to continue to
    experience fairly complex common code udpates (phasing)

    Upgrade of HPC : ~ 2020

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