Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel

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Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel
MARKET STUDY                     DRAFT - AUGUST 19, 2019

             Proposed Gilbert Regional Park
             Hotel
             GILBERT, ARIZONA

             SUBMITTED TO :                          PREPARED BY:
             Mr. Glenn Schlottman                    HVS Convention, Sports & Entertainment
             Town of Gilbert                             Facilities Consulting
             50 East Civic Center Drive              205 West Randolph, Suite 1650
             Gilbert, Arizona 85296                  Chicago, Illinois 60606
             +1 (480) 503-6913                       +1 (312) 587-9900
             Glenn.Schlottman@GilbertAZ.gov

October 1,
Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel
DRAFT - August 19, 2019

205 West Randolph         Mr. Glenn Schlottman
Suite 1650                Town of Gilbert
Chicago, Illinois 60606   50 East Civic Center Drive
+1 312-587-9900           Gilbert, Arizona 85296
+1 312-488-3631 FAX
www.hvs.com

                                         Re:     Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel
                                                 Gilbert, Arizona
Atlanta
Boston                    Dear Mr. Schlottman:
Boulder
Chicago
                          Attached, you will find our Market Study of the Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel
Dallas
Denver
                          in Gilbert, Arizona.
Las Vegas
México City
                          We certify that we have no undisclosed interest in the property, and our
Miami                     employment and compensation are not contingent upon our findings. This study is
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New York                  limiting conditions set forth herein.
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                          questions.
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                                         Sincerely,
Buenos Aires                             HVS Convention, Sports & Entertainment
Dubai                                      Facilities Consulting
Hong Kong
Lima
London
                                         DRAFT
Madrid
Mumbai
New Delhi
                                         Tom Hazinski
Sao Paulo                                Managing Director
Shanghai
Singapore
                                         DRAFT

                                         Brian Harris
                                         Senior Director
Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel
Table of Contents

   SECTION   TITLE
      1.     Executive Summary                                  1-1
      2.     Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel                   2-1
      3.     Gilbert Market Overview                            3-1
      4.     Supply and Demand Analysis                         4-1
      5.     Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate           5-1
      6.     Projection of Income and Expenses                  6-1
      7.     Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions   7-1
      8.     Certification                                      8-1
Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel
1. Executive Summary

Subject of the            The Town of Gilbert (“Town”) engaged HVS Convention, Sports, and Entertainment
Market Study              Facilities Consulting (“HVS”) to conduct a Market Study of a Proposed Gilbert
                          Regional Park Hotel (“Proposed Hotel”). The site under consideration for the
                          Proposed Hotel is in the Gilbert Regional Park in Gilbert, Arizona. For this study,
                          HVS analyzed the development of a select-service hotel.

                          HVS considered a range of hotel development options and focused our analysis on a
                          high-quality property appropriate for the park location. While a specific opening
                          date has not been established, for the purposes of this study, HVS assumes the
                          Proposed Hotel will open on January 1, 2022, as a 100-room select-service hotel of
                          high quality. The property would feature a complimentary breakfast services area,
                          1,400 square feet of meeting space, outdoor pool, outdoor whirlpool, fitness room,
                          lobby workstation, market pantry, and guest laundry area. The hotel would also
                          include the appropriate back-of-the-house space necessary to support hotel
                          operations.

                          The Proposed Hotel would attract the commercial, meeting and group, and leisure
                          market segments because of a national brand affiliation, new construction, and
                          Gilbert Regional Park location. Hotel guests would include independent travelers
                          who are willing to pay a higher rate for a new product, groups looking for small
                          meeting rooms, and price-sensitive leisure travelers that seek high-quality rooms at
                          discounted rates on shoulder days and weekends.

Methodology               This study employs the methodology illustrated in the figure below.

                                                                                                                   1-1
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                   Executive Summary
                                                         Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel
FIGURE 1-1
                                                     HOTEL MARKET STUDY METHODOLOGY
                             Research Potential
                             Competitive Hotels

                            Economic Indicators

                          Competitive Set Analysis

                              Induced Demand
                                                                  Market ADR and
                                                                Occupancy Estimates
                             Unaccommodated
                                 Demand                                                             Occupancy and ADR
                                                               Proposed Hotel Market
                                                                                                    Forecasts by Market
                                                                    Penetration
                                                                                                         Segment
                            Room Supply Changes

                                                                 Comparable Hotel                  Estimate of Proposed
                            Inflation and Market                  Operating Data                      Hotel Financial
                            Growth Assumptions                                                          Operations

                          HVS 1) analyzed the historical performance of a competitive set of hotels,
                          2) estimated the amounts of induced and unaccommodated demand in the market,
                          and 3) researched potential changes in room supply. Based on these hotel market
                          trends and economic and demographic indicators of future changes in hotel
                          demand, HVS projected the future performance of a competitive set of hotel
                          properties on the local market. Through a market penetration analysis, we
                          estimated the average daily room rate and occupancy of the Proposed Hotel in each
                          of the three market segments—commercial, leisure, and meeting and group. An
                          estimate of average daily room rates and occupancies generates a projection of
                          room revenues, which, when combined with the operating data on comparable
                          hotels, yields a ten-year estimate of financial operations.

                          The methodology used to develop this study is based on market research and
                          valuation techniques set forth in the textbooks authored by Hospitality Valuation
                          Services for the American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and the Appraisal

                                                                                                                     1-2
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                     Executive Summary
                                                           Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel
Institute, entitled The Valuation of Hotels and Motels,1 Hotels, Motels and
                          Restaurants: Valuations and Market Studies,2 The Computerized Income Approach to
                          Hotel/Motel Market Studies and Valuations,3 Hotels and Motels: A Guide to Market
                          Analysis, Investment Analysis, and Valuations,4 and Hotels and Motels – Valuations
                          and Market Studies.5 All information was collected and analyzed by the staff of HVS
                          Convention, Sports & Entertainment Facilities Consulting.

Pertinent Dates           The effective date of the study is August 19, 2019. Tom Hazinski and Brian Harris
                          inspected the site for the Proposed Hotel on June 12, 2019. All projections are
                          expressed in inflated dollars.

Site                      The site for the Proposed Hotel is in Gilbert Regional Park (“GRP”). The Town will
                          offer a land lease for a maximum of 10 acres. Detailed descriptions of the site, GRP,
                          and The Strand @ Gilbert skills-based water park which will be adjacent to
                          Proposed Hotel are in Section 2 starting on page 2-2.

                          The Town will enter into a land lease for the site with the developer of the Proposed
                          Hotel. The terms of the land lease have not been determined as of the date of this
                          study. The term of the land lease is expected to be at least 30 years with two ten-
                          year renewals at the option of the developer.

                          The ownership structure was not determined as of the date of this study.

                          The management agreement will need to be negotiated after a development plan for
                          the Proposed Hotel has been finalized with the developer. We have included a
                          market appropriate management fee of 3.0% of gross operating revenues. Other
                          charges related to the future hotel’s brand affiliation, such as frequent guest
                          programs, are reflected in the appropriate departmental expenses, consistent with
                          the Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry (“USALI”).

                          1 Stephen Rushmore, The Valuation of Hotels and Motels. (Chicago: American Institute of
                          Real Estate Appraisers, 1978).
                          2 Stephen Rushmore, Hotels, Motels and Restaurants: Valuations and Market Studies.

                          (Chicago: American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers, 1983).
                          3 Stephen Rushmore, The Computerized Income Approach to Hotel/Motel Market Studies and

                          Valuations. (Chicago: American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers, 1990).
                          4 Stephen Rushmore, Hotels and Motels: A Guide to Market Analysis, Investment

                          Analysis, and Valuations (Chicago: Appraisal Institute, 1992).
                          5 Stephen Rushmore and Erich Baum, Hotels and Motels – Valuations and Market Studies.

                          (Chicago: Appraisal Institute, 2001).

                                                                                                                    1-3
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                    Executive Summary
                                                          Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel
Franchise                 We recommend that the Proposed Hotel operates as an Upper Midscale or Upscale
                          class, select-service hotel. A specific franchise affiliation would be determined as
                          part of a future hotel project. We assume that the Proposed Hotel will obtain a
                          national brand and will retain its brand affiliation throughout the ten-year holding
                          period. Inherent in this assumption is the expectation that the property will be
                          operated in accordance with brand standards, including requirements for services
                          and cleanliness; that the hotel will be maintained in good condition, with all building
                          systems in good working order; and that any necessary refurbishments or
                          renovations will be completed in a timely manner and in accordance with the
                          requirements of the brand. Other charges related to the affiliation, such as frequent
                          guest programs, are reflected in the appropriate departmental expenses, consistent
                          with the Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry (“USALI”).

Summary of Hotel          HVS analyzed the performance of a set of hotels that would compete with the
Market Trends             Proposed Hotel (“Competitive Hotels” see page 4-3, Figure 4-1). Based on an
                          evaluation of the occupancy, rate structure, market orientation, location, facilities,
                          amenities, reputation, and quality, as well as the comments of management
                          representatives, we have identified four properties that would compete with the
                          Proposed Hotel on a primary basis, and nine properties that would compete on a
                          secondary basis, for a total of 13 competitors. Due to location, brand quality, and
                          service levels, primary competitors vie for the same customers and are 100 percent
                          competitive with the Proposed Hotel. Secondary competitors have partially
                          overlapping customer bases, and their competitiveness with the Proposed Hotel is
                          weighted at less than 100 percent. Section 4 of this study, Supply and Demand
                          Analysis, provides a detailed discussion of the weighting of the secondary
                          competitors.

                          The following figure provides a long-term perspective on the supply and demand
                          trends of the Competitive Hotels, with data provided by Smith Travel Research
                          (“STR”). STR is an independent research firm that compiles proprietary data on the
                          lodging industry.

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                    Executive Summary
                                                          Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel
FIGURE 1-2
                              HISTORICAL COMPETITIVE HOTELS ADR, OCCUPANCY, AND REVPAR TRENDS
                                $140                                                                                 100.0%
                                                                                                                     90.0%
                                $120
                                                                                                                     80.0%
                                $100                                                                                 70.0%
                                                                                                                     60.0%
                                 $80
                                                                                                                     50.0%
                                 $60
                                                                                                                     40.0%

                                 $40                                                                                 30.0%
                                                     ADR               RevPAR             Occupancy
                                                                                                                     20.0%
                                 $20
                                                                                                                     10.0%
                                  $0                                                                                 0.0%
                                       2010   2011   2012     2013     2014      2015    2016    2017     2018

                                                                   Source: STR

                          Average daily room rate (“ADR”) is the annual revenue of the hotel from room sales
                          divided by the number of occupied room nights. Occupancy is a percentage
                          calculated by dividing the annual number of occupied room nights by the annual
                          number of available room nights. Revenue per available room, (“RevPAR”) is a
                          common hotel industry metric, calculated by multiplying the occupancy rate by ADR
                          and provides a combined measure of rate and occupancy.

                          In 2018, the ADR of Competitive Hotels increased by 0.7% and occupancy increased
                          by 6.0%, causing RevPAR to increase by 6.8%. Demand grew by 11.2% in 2018. The
                          increase in demand, partly offset by an increase in available room nights of 4.9%,
                          caused the occupancy rate to rise to 72.4%.

                          The following figure reflects HVS’s estimates of operating data of the Competitive
                          Hotels for the years 2016 through 2018.

                                                                                                                        1-5
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                     Executive Summary
                                                           Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel
FIGURE 1-3
                                WEIGHTED HISTORICAL SUPPLY, DEMAND, OCCUPANCY, ADR, & REVPAR
                                                         (2016 - 2018)
                                                                       Competitive
                                            Room Nights Room Nights                      Competitive       Competitive
                                Year                                     Hotels
                                             Available     Sold                          Hotels ADR       Hotels RevPAR
                                                                        Occupancy

                             Amount
                              2016            329,000     237,000          72.0%           $113.79            $81.97
                              2017            387,000     271,000          70.0%           $115.67            $81.00
                              2018            404,000     296,000          73.3%           $117.20            $85.87
                             Percent Change
                              2017             17.6%       14.3%           -2.8%             1.7%              -1.2%
                               2018             4.4%        9.2%           4.6%              1.3%              6.0%
                             2016 to 2018      22.8%       24.9%           1.7%              3.0%              4.8%

                          Since 2016, accommodated room nights increased by 24.9%, while the number of
                          available room nights increased by 22.8%. As a result, market occupancy increased
                          by 1.7% during the same period. Average daily room rate grew 3% since 2016. The
                          combined effect of changes in occupancy and ADR caused RevPAR to grow 4.8%
                          over the three-year period analyzed here.

Monthly Room Night        HVS analyzed changes in the Competitive Hotels over the last 12 months as reported
Demand                    to STR, as shown in the figure below.

                                                                                                                       1-6
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                    Executive Summary
                                                          Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel
FIGURE 1-4
                                 UNWEIGHTED HISTORICAL 12 MONTH COMPETITIVE DEMAND TRENDS
                                                Occupied
                                Month                        Prior Year      Difference           Change in Demand
                                              Room Nights

                                Jul -18          26,368        24,128              2,240        9.3%
                                Aug-18           28,361        27,188              1,173        4.3%
                                Sep-18           29,665        25,992              3,673        14.1%
                                Oct-18           36,266        29,751              6,515        21.9%
                                Nov-18           36,401        31,448              4,953        15.7%
                                Dec-18           36,367        29,307              7,060        24.1%
                                Ja n-19          38,729        32,287              6,442        20.0%
                                Feb-19           41,878        35,118              6,760        19.2%
                                Ma r-19          47,520        39,393              8,127        20.6%
                                Apr-19           38,225        31,694              6,531        20.6%
                                Ma y-19          38,407        32,654              5,753        17.6%
                                Jun-19           34,868        27,675              7,193        26.0%
                            12 Month Tota l     433,055       366,635             66,420        18.1%
                                                                    Source: STR

                          Demand within the competitive set showed growth of 18.1% over the last 12
                          months, due in part to increased supply. Interviews with hotel managers indicate
                          that the market demand was increasing, and the competition was growing due to
                          new supply.

Summary of Forecast       To forecast the occupancy of the Proposed Hotel, HVS performed a market
Occupancy and             penetration analysis of three market segments: commercial, meeting and group, and
Average Rate              leisure. The purpose of segmenting the lodging market is to define each major type
                          of demand, identify customer characteristics, and estimate future growth trends.
                          The following figure summarizes estimates of accommodated room night demand
                          by market segment, assuming the Proposed Hotel begins operation on a calendar
                          year starting January 1, 2022.

                                                                                                                      1-7
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                      Executive Summary
                                                            Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
FIGURE 1-5
                                                 PROPOSED HOTEL OCCUPANCY FORECAST
                                         Calendar Year                 2022         2023          2024         2025

                                   Ava i l a bl e Room Ni ghts        36,500        36,500       36,500        36,500
                                   Abs orpti on by Segment
                                     Commerci a l                      9,900        10,600       10,900        10,900
                                     Meeti ng a nd Group               2,100         2,300        2,300         2,300
                                     Lei s ure                        11,200        12,200       12,700        12,700
                                   Tota l Abs orpti on                23,200        25,100       25,900        25,900

                                   Projected Occupa ncy                  63%          68%           71%          71%

                                   Percent Segmenta ti on
                                     Commerci a l                        43%          42%           42%          42%
                                     Meeti ng a nd Group                  9%            9%           9%            9%
                                     Lei s ure                           48%          49%           49%          49%

                          The Proposed Hotel would open on January 1, 2022, and for this analysis, we assume
                          would take three years to stabilize. Based on our analysis presented in Section 5, in
                          a stabilized year of demand, the property could absorb room nights and achieve a
                          stabilized occupancy level of 71%. The following figure compares the projected
                          occupancy of the Proposed Hotel with Competitive Hotels.

                                                                                                                           1-8
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                           Executive Summary
                                                                 Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
FIGURE 1-6
                                                         OCCUPANCY FORECAST

                                                     Competitive Hotels         Proposed Hotel

                                                                 72%               72%               72%
                                   70%         71%                        71%             71%               71%
                                                       68%
                                         63%

                                     2022         2023               2024              2025              2026

                          In positioning the ADR, we consider the ADR of Competitive Hotels as well as the
                          location of the Proposed Hotel, and its brand and quality.

                          The following figure compares the estimated ADR of the Proposed Hotel with the
                          ADR of Competitive Hotels during five calendar years starting January 1, 2022.

                                                                                                                    1-9
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                    Executive Summary
                                                          Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
FIGURE 1-7
                                                       AVERAGE RATE FORECAST
                                                      Competitive Hotels        Proposed Hotel

                                                                                                         $148 $151
                                                                    $139 $143         $143 $147
                                  $131 $134      $135 $138

                                    2022           2023                2024               2025              2026

                          We positioned the ADR in the base year 2018 at an average rate of $120.00. This
                          rate would grow with inflation and in proportion to the rate of growth in the
                          competitive set. The positioned ADR is further discounted by 3.0% in 2022 and
                          1.0% in 2023 to reflect typical management practices during the years before the
                          hotel stabilizes in the market.

Summary of Forecast       HVS supports its estimates of revenue and expense levels using data on the
Income and Expense        operations of comparable hotels and factors specific to this market. Three common
Statement                 measures of hotel financial performance are 1) ratio to sales (“RTS”), 2) amounts
                          per available room (“PAR”), and 3) amounts per occupied room night (“POR”) which
                          are used to present the financial data. The following figure presents the HVS forecast
                          of income and expense for a stabilized year of operation for the Proposed Hotel.

                                                                                                                       1-10
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                       Executive Summary
                                                             Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
FIGURE 1-8
                                        FINANCIAL OPERATIONS IN THE STABILIZED YEAR 2024
                                                                       STATISTICS
                                                                 Number of Rooms                   100
                                                             Occupied Room Nights                 25,915
                                                                          Occupancy                  71%
                                                                       Average Rate              $142.59
                                                                             RevPAR              $101.24

                                                                                              $000         % Gross

                                        Operating Revenue
                                         Rooms                                              $3,695          98.8%
                                         Other Opera ted Depa rtments                           28           0.7%
                                         Mi s cel l a neous Income                              18           0.5%
                                        Total Operating Revenues                            $3,741          100%

                                        Departmental Expenses*
                                         Rooms                                                $887          24.0%
                                         Other Opera ted Depa rtments                           24          85.0%
                                        Sub-total                                             $910          24.3%
                                        Departmental Income                                 $2,831          75.7%

                                        Undistributed Operating Expenses
                                         Admi ni s tra ti ve & Genera l                       $307           8.2%
                                         Ma rketi ng                                           198           5.3%
                                         Fra nchi s e Fee                                      370           9.9%
                                         Prop. Opera ti ons & Ma i nt.                         153           4.1%
                                         Uti l i ti es                                         176           4.7%
                                         Info & Tel ecom Sys tems                               37           1.0%
                                        Sub-total                                           $1,241          33.2%
                                        Gross House Profit                                  $1,590          42.5%
                                        Management Fee                                        $112           3.0%

                                        Income Before Non-Opr. Inc. & Exp.                  $1,477          39.5%

                                        Non-Operating Income & Expenses
                                         Property Ta xes                                      $168           4.5%
                                         Ins ura nce                                            41           1.1%
                                         La nd Lea s e                                         TBD
                                         Res erve for Repl a cement                            150           4.0%
                                        Sub-total                                             $359           9.6%
                                        EBITDA Less Reserve **                              $1,118          29.9%
                                                                                                               0.0%
                                        *Departmental expense ratios are calculated as a percentage of
                                        departmental revenue.
                                        ** The land lease payment was not determined as of the date of this Study

                          The land lease payment has not been determined as of the date of this study. Please
                          refer to Section 6 of this study, Projection of Income and Expense, for a detailed

                                                                                                                        1-11
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                        Executive Summary
                                                              Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
explanation of the methodology used in deriving our forecast of financial
                          operations.

Public/Private            A public/private partnership (“P3”) is an economic development tool that is gaining
Partnerships              popularity in the hospitality industry. Despite positive market indicators and
                          demand potential, some hotel projects do not create the necessary financial
                          performance to support their feasibility. Public incentives can help bridge the
                          feasibility gap and encourage private development of high impact projects. Many
                          local governments have entered a P3 with a developer to overcome a funding gap in
                          the development budget for a hotel they want to be developed in a specific location.

                          The amount of public support required to finance the Proposed Hotel through a P3
                          is dependent upon the gap between the capital cost of the project and the amount
                          of debt and equity that can be raised in the capital markets. P3s in hotel
                          developments are more frequently used for projects in which a reasonable amount
                          of public equity investment can make the difference between a feasible and
                          infeasible project.

                          The following figure summarized typical deal terms in a P3.

                                                                                                                   1-12
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                   Executive Summary
                                                         Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
FIGURE 1-9
                                                  SUMMARY OF P3 DEAL TERMS
                Issue                                                      Terms
                           A pri va tel y-owned s i ngl e purpos e enti ty, typi ca l l y a l i mi ted l i a bi l i ty corpora ti on
             Ownership     ("LLC") hol ds ti tl e to the hotel . The owner i s res pons i bl e for enga gi ng the devel oper
                           a nd opera tor.
                           The hotel ma y be ma na ged by a hotel bra nd compa ny (e.g. Ma rri ott, Hi l ton, Hya tt,
                           Interconti nenta l , Lowes ). Or the hotel ma y be opera ted by a thi rd pa rty wi th a
             Operations
                           fra nchi s e a greement to bra nd the property. Compens a ti on of the ma na ger i s
                           typi ca l l y ba s ed on a percenta ge of gros s revenue, net opera ti ng i ncome or both.

                           Pri va tel y-owned hotel s a re typi ca l l y fi na nced wi th a mi x of debt a nd equi ty. In the
                           current ma rkets , l enders wi l l l end 65% to 70% of the va l ue of the project a nd equi ty
                           i nves tors or mezza ni ne l enders provi de the ba l a nce of the fundi ng. Typi ca l l y the
                           devel oper obta i ns a va ri a bl e ra te cons tructi on l oa n, whi ch i s l a ter repl a ced wi th
             Financing     perma nent fi na nci ng when hotel opera ti ons s ta bi l i ze. Equi ty i nves tment i s
                           obta i ned by s el l i ng s tock i n the LLC a nd the devel opment group ma y ha ve a
                           control l i ng i nteres t i n the LLC. In publ i c/pri va te pa rtners hi ps , a governmenta l enti ty
                           ma y a l s o provi de a n equi ty contri buti on to the project wi th l i ttl e or no expecta ti on
                           of obta i ni ng a return on thei r equi ty i nves tment.

                           Interes t ra tes on perma nent debt ma y ra nge from 5% to 6% i n the current fi na nci a l
                           ma rkets . Pri va te equi ty i nves tors ma y requi re 15% to 20% return on equi ty due.
           Cost of Funds
                           Thes e pa ra meters va ry dependi ng on credi t ma rket condi ti ons a nd the a va i l a bi l i ty
                           of ca pi ta l for hotel i nves tment.

                           Publ i c s ubs i di es ma y ta ke the form of l a nd contri buti ons , i nfra s tructure a nd pa rki ng
             Forms of
                           devel opment, ta x a ba tements , ta x turn-ba cks , ta x-s ha ri ng a greements , a nd ca s h
               Public
                           s ubs i di es . Publ i c s ubs i di es mus t be ti ed to the publ i c benefi ts the project wi l l
             Subsidies
                           del i ver.

                           The i nves tors i n the LLC us ua l l y cl a i m the res i dua l project i ncome from opera ti ons
              Project
                           a nd the s a l e of the a s s et. Muni ci pa l i ti es ma y negoti a te a s ha re of project i ncome
              Income
                           i n excha nge for provi di ng publ i c s ubs i di es . Devel opers often negoti a te a "preferred
              Sharing
                           return," whi ch gi ves the devel oper a fi rs t cl a i m on i ncome.

                                 The financial feasibility of the Proposed Hotel depends on several factors, including:

                                       •    construction costs,

                                       •    estimated net operating income of the Proposed Hotel,

                                       •    interest rate levels,

                                                                                                                                       1-13
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                                     Executive Summary
                                                                           Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
•   availability of equity,

                             •   seasonality and volatility of the local hotel market, and

                             •   other factors that affect the allocation of investment risk and return.

                          The most frequently used methods of public incentive for a P3 have included:

                             •   Project Generated Revenues

                                     o   Abatement of lodging taxes collected on the property or redirection
                                         of those taxes to the project.

                                     o   Abatement of the property tax or subordination of the property
                                         taxes to return on equity investment in the project.

                                     o   Turn back or abatement of sales taxes generated by the project.

                                     o   Imposition of project-specific taxes such as a higher lodging tax.

                             •   Local Government Participation

                                     o   a pledge of city-wide or special district lodging taxes to support the
                                         project. Less frequently, public entities fund their contribution to
                                         the project using:
                                         -   food and beverage tax revenues generated by the property or
                                             from a special district, or
                                         -   general sales taxes or sales taxes from a special district.
                                     o   Credit enhance all or a portion of the debt required to fund the
                                         project to obtain a lower interest rate.

                                     o   Reduce or eliminate governmental development-related fees and
                                         permits on the project.

                                     o   Grant to fund a portion of the project.

                                     o   Increase the lodging tax to fund a portion of the project.

                                     o   Infrastructure improvements, including roadway improvements,
                                         parking lots and decks, and other supporting developments.

                                     o   Marketing support for the project.

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                     Executive Summary
                                                           Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
•   State Participation

                                     o   A grant or rebate of certain project relates state taxes, such as sales
                                         taxes.

                                     o   Sales taxes generated at the project or within a district to support
                                         the project.

                          Public agencies may choose from a wide variety of options to provide public support
                          for a hotel project. Whatever forms public support may take, it must be tied to public
                          benefits the project would incur to the local community.

                          The package of incentives utilized by local governments in P3s for similar projects
                          often include providing the site, abatement of property taxes for a specified time,
                          and the local government’s portion of the hotel occupancy tax generated. The
                          property taxes and the hotel occupancy tax are generated by the project, which
                          limits the financial exposure of the local government. If the Town could offer a
                          similar package of incentives, a P3 for the project should be offered through a
                          Request for Proposal (“RFP”) process to determine if a developer would be
                          interested in the project.

                          State and local law will dictate the forms of allowable public participation. Next
                          steps may include the following.

                             •   The Town should identify which funding sources it is willing and legally able
                                 to use for the development of the Proposed Hotel.

                             •   Preparation of an RFP that would be sent to potential developers.

                             •   Discussion with the State concerning assistance to the project.

                          Our analysis does not address unforeseeable events that could alter the financial
                          performance of the proposed project and the market conditions reflected in the
                          analyses. We assume that no significant changes, other than those anticipated and
                          explained in this study, would take place from the date of HVS’ site visit or the date
                          of this study. Our findings are subject to all the assumptions and limiting conditions
                          described herein. The reader should contact the authors with any questions after
                          reading the study.

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                    Executive Summary
                                                          Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
2.        Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel

                          The suitability of a site for the development of a lodging facility is an important
                          consideration affecting its economic viability. Factors such as size, accessibility,
                          visibility, and the proximity of other amenities have a direct impact on the suitability
                          of a site. Other factors, such as the cost of obtaining the site, infrastructure needs,
                          and costs of improving a site should also be considered.

 Gilbert Regional Park    The Town and the Flood Control District of Maricopa County (“FCDMC”) entered
                          into an Intergovernmental Agreement (“IGA”) in May of 2015 for the recreational
                          use of the Chandler Heights Basin by the Town. The Maricopa County Board of
                          Supervisors voted to approve a perpetual recreation easement that allows the Town
                          to implement and maintain a multi-use recreational area within the District’s
                          Chandler Heights Basin, 225-acres located south of Queen Creek Road and west of
                          Higley Road, beginning in September of 2019. When added to the Town’s 47-acres
                          immediately adjacent to the basin, it will create the 272-acre Gilbert Regional Park
                          (“GRP”). GRP runs along the west side of Higley Road and stretches southward from
                          Queen Creek Road to Chandler Heights Road.

                          In September 2017, after a recalculation of the basin storage requirements, FCDMC
                          determined that approximately 50 acres within the recreation easement could now
                          be classified “high and dry” land.

                                                                                                                     2-1
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                        Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel
                                                           Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
GILBERT REGIONAL PARK RENDERING

                                              Source: Town of Gilbert

                          The Town plans to develop the GRP in three phases. Phase One A will include:

                             •   Eight pickleball courts,
                             •   six tennis courts,
                             •   a play structure accessible to people with disabilities,
                             •   restrooms,
                             •   16 ramadas,
                             •   monument sign,
                             •   trails/sidewalks,
                             •   gravel event law,
                             •   a splash pad, and
                             •   parkway & 300 parking spaces.

                          Phase One B is scheduled to open in the summer of 2020 and will include:

                             •   A seven-acre lake,

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                            Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel
                                                               Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
•   a ten-acre upper great lawn,

                             •   amphitheater/stage,

                             •   six sand volleyball courts,

                             •   two tennis courts,

                             •   additional restroom,

                             •   maintenance facility, and

                             •   connection road to Highly Road.

                          The future expansions, which are not currently funded, could include:

                             •   Phase 2 encompasses the park area south of the future Ocotillo Road Bridge,
                                 and

                             •   Phase 3 encompasses the remaining upper basin.

                          The Town will also enter P3s for the development of additional facilities at GRP.
                          Possible P3s include:

                             •   a water park,

                             •   retail outlets, and

                             •   the Proposed Hotel.

                          The first P3 was entered between Gilbert and the developers of The Strand @ Gilbert
                          skills-based water park. The Strand @ Gilbert will be on 25 acres in Phase One.

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                      Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel
                                                         Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
THE STRAND @ GILBERT SKILLS-BASED WATER PARK

                                             Source: Strand@Gilbert

                          The Strand @ Gilbert will offer:

                              •   A surf lagoon,

                              •   cable wakeboarding,

                              •   swimming areas,

                              •   retail shop,

                              •   indoor party rooms and arcade,

                              •   restaurant, and

                              •   cabanas

                          The surf lagoon will deliver on-demand wave production with different surf levels
                          all year long. Lights will illuminate the surf for nighttime use seven days a week. The
                          Strand @ Gilbert water park will be a major generator of room night demand for the
                          Proposed Hotel.

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                          Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel
                                                             Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
Ocotillo Bridge          The Town is planning to build a new bridge across the Queen Creek Wash and East
                          Maricopa Floodway. It will be west of Higley Road and south of Queen Creek Road.
                          The bridge will connect the east and west portions of Ocotillo Road, which will
                          improve access to GRP.

                                                           OCOTILLO BRIDGE

                                                             Source: Kimley-Horn

 Site                     The Town has allocated three sites within GRP for public/private partnerships:

                              •   Site P1-a 25-acre site will be developed into The Strand @ Gilbert water
                                  park,

                              •   Site P2-a 10-acre site that will be developed into the Proposed Hotel, and

                              •   Site P3- a 5-acre site that may be developed into retail space in the future.

                          The remaining acreage of GRP will be developed by the Town. Sites P1, P2, and P3
                          are shown in the following map.

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                      Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel
                                                         Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
SITE – P2

                          The Town is currently constructing Phase One within GRP. The Town expects to
                          continue making significant investment in GRP.

Site Utility              The topography of the site is generally flat, and the shape permits efficient use of
                          the site for building and site improvements, including ingress and egress. The site
                          will not contain any significant portion of undeveloped land that could be sold,
                          entitled, and developed for alternate use. The site will be fully developed with
                          building and site improvements.

                          According to the Town, the site is served by all necessary utilities.

Soil and                  Geological and soil reports were not provided to us or made available for our review
Subsoil Conditions        during the preparation of this report. We are not qualified to evaluate soil conditions
                          other than by visual inspection of the surface; no extraordinary conditions were
                          apparent.

Nuisances                 The Town did not inform HVS of any site-specific nuisances or hazards at the
and Hazards               proposed site, and there were no visible signs of toxic ground contaminants at the
                          time of our inspection. Because we are not experts in this field, we do not warrant
                          the absence of hazardous waste and urge the reader to obtain an independent
                          analysis of these factors.

                                                                                                                    2-6
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                       Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel
                                                          Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
Access and Visibility     Interstate 10 provides primary regional access through the area extending to such
                          cities as Tucson to the southeast and Los Angeles, California, to the west. Interstate
                          17 is another major highway, which provides access to Flagstaff to the north and
                          has its southern terminus in Phoenix. State Route 202, or Loop 202/Santan
                          Freeway, forms a beltway around the cities of Tempe, Chandler, Mesa, and Gilbert.
                          State Route 101, or Loop 101, intersects with Loop 202/Santan Freeway in Chandler
                          and the northeast corner of Tempe; this freeway forms a beltway around the
                          northern cities of Scottsdale, Phoenix, Glendale, and Peoria.

                                                       REGIONAL ROADS SYSTEM

Airport Access            The Proposed Hotel will be well served by the Phoenix Sky Harbor International
                          Airport, which is approximately 25 miles northwest of the site for the Proposed
                          Hotel and Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, which is approximately 10 miles to the
                          east.

Flood Zone                According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency map illustrated
                          below, the site is in flood zone X (shaded).

                                                                                                                    2-7
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                       Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel
                                                          Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
COPY OF FLOOD ZONE MAP

                          The flood zone definition for the X (Area with Reduced Flood Risk Due to Levee)
                          designation is as follows: areas outside the 500-year flood plain; areas of the 500-
                          year flood; areas of the 100-year flood with average depths of less than one foot or
                          with drainage areas less than one square mile and areas protected by levees from
                          the 100-year.

Zoning                    The site is zoned Public Facilities/Institutional District and is currently unimproved
                          vacant land. The purpose of the Public Facility/Institutional District is to provide for
                          utilities and public and quasi-public uses such as schools, hospitals, libraries,
                          recreation centers, golf courses, and parks. The Town has determined that a hotel is
                          a qualified use.

                          We assume that all necessary permits and approvals will be secured (including the
                          appropriate liquor license, if applicable) and that the Proposed Hotel will be
                          constructed following local zoning ordinances, building codes, and all other
                          applicable regulations. Our zoning analysis should be verified before any physical
                          changes are made to the site.

                                                                                                                     2-8
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                        Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel
                                                           Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
Easements and             We are not aware of any easements attached to the possible sites that would
Encroachments             significantly affect the utility of the property or marketability of this project.

 Description of the       For the purposes of this study, HVS assumes that the hotel will be a select-service
 Proposed Hotel           hotel conforming to the brand-specific guidelines, including construction and
                          operational brand standards. Our forecast assumes that the property will be
                          maintained in a competitive condition, undergoing regular renovations of soft goods
                          and case goods funded primarily by a reserve for replacement.

                          The following figure shows the features of the Proposed Hotel.

                                                                  FIGURE 2-1
                                                            PROPOSED HOTEL FACILITIES
                                Guestroom Configuration                                                       Keys

                                Ki ngs                                                                          44
                                Queen/Queen                                                                     50
                                One-Bedroom Sui te                                                               6
                                  Tota l (ADA-Compl i a nt Rooms per Loca l Code)                              100

                                                                                                            Seating
                                Food & Beverage Facilities                          Seats per Room
                                                                                                            Capacity
                                Compl i menta ry brea kfa s t s ervi ces a rea                0.4               40

                                                                                                           Square Feet
                                Indoor Meeting Facilities
                                                                                                            Combined
                                  Meeti ng Rooms                                                               1,400

                                Amenities & Services

                                Outdoor Pool                                     Lobby Works ta ti on
                                Outdoor Whi rl pool                              Ma rket Pa ntry
                                Fi tnes s Room                                   Gues t La undry Area

                                Infrastructure
                                Pa rki ng Spa ces Hotel                          100
                                El eva tors                                      2 Gues t
                                Li fe Sa fety Sys tems                           Spri nkl ers , Smoke Detectors
                                Cons tructi on Deta i l s                        TBD

                          The lobby will be appropriate for a select-service hotel. The Proposed Hotel will
                          offer a complimentary breakfast area and will feature standard and suite-style
                          guestroom configurations. Guestroom bathrooms will be of a standard size, with a

                                                                                                                         2-9
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                            Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel
                                                               Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
shower-in-tub, commode, and single sink with vanity area, featuring a stone
                          countertop.

                          For this study, we assume the Proposed Hotel would include the following:

                              •   A well-designed, functional layout of support areas, and guestrooms.
                              •   The hotel staff would be adequately trained to allow for a successful
                                  opening.
                              •   Pre-marketing efforts would have introduced the product to major local
                                  accounts for at least six months in advance of the opening date.
                              •   Meet all pertinent codes and brand standards.
                              •   Open and operational on the assumed opening date.
                              •   Construction would not create any environmental hazards.
Construction Cost         Since no specific concept plan or construction costs estimates are available, we
                          assume a range of potential costs from $12 million to $18 million, excluding the cost
                          of the site due to the land lease with the Town, based on comparable select-service
                          hotel developments.

Capital Expenditures      After its opening, the Proposed Hotel would require ongoing upgrades and periodic
                          renovations to maintain its competitive level in this market. The forecasted reserve
                          for replacement should adequately fund these costs if the management employs a
                          successful, ongoing maintenance program.

Ownership, Franchise,     The ownership structure of the Proposed Hotel has not been determined as of the
and Management            date of this study. We recommend that the Proposed Hotel operates as an Upper
Assumptions               Midscale or class, select-service hotel as classified by STR. The developer of the
                          property will select a specific brand/franchise affiliation. The estimated forecasted
                          fees include base and incentive fees. We assume that the Proposed Hotel will be
                          managed by a professional hotel-operating company, with fees deducted at rates
                          consistent with current market standards.

                          We recommend that the Proposed Hotel operates as an Upper Midscale or Upscale
                          class, select-service hotel. A specific franchise affiliation has yet to be finalized. We
                          assume that the Proposed Hotel will obtain a brand from a national brand and will
                          retain its brand affiliation throughout the holding period. Inherent in this
                          assumption is the expectation that the property will be operated in accordance with
                          brand standards, including requirements for services and cleanliness; that the hotel
                          will be maintained in good condition, with all building systems in good working
                          order; and that any necessary refurbishments or renovations will be completed in a
                          timely manner and in accordance with the requirements of the brand.

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                        Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel
                                                           Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
For this analysis, we assume that the Proposed Hotel developer would be
                          determined sometime in 2019, and after a two-year design and construction period,
                          the hotel would open on January 1, 2022.

Conclusions               The Town is making significant investments in GRP and anticipates future
                          investments. The extensive road system will allow easy access to GRP. The 100-
                          room select-service Proposed Hotel will provide additional amenities in GRP and
                          another quality lodging option in the Town.

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                     Site Analysis and Proposed Hotel
                                                        Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
3. Gilbert Market Overview

                          HVS explored economic and demographic factors that affect the level of lodging
                          demand in the market, including population, income, employment, retail sales,
                          business presence, major tourist attractions, and transportation access. We relied
                          on third-party data sources to review historical trends and provide forecasts of the
                          rate of growth or decline of the local economy. We also assessed whether the
                          neighborhood surrounding the site would support the development of the Proposed
                          Hotel. This market overview provides a framework for projections of lodging
                          demand and revenue growth in the local market.

National Economic         Our analysis of the outlook for this specific market also considers the broader
Trends                    context of the national economy. The U.S. economy expanded at an overall rate of
                          2.9% in 2018, compared to 2.2% in 2017, the highest growth registered since 2015.
                          Growth hit a high of 4.2% in the second quarter of 2018, declining to 2.2% in the
                          fourth quarter of 2018. Growth rebounded to 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019,
                          surpassing expectations of 2.0% growth. GDP growth in 2018 was stimulated by the
                          Tax Cut and Jobs Act, which was passed in December 2017, driven primarily by fixed
                          investments and strong consumer spending, particularly personal consumption
                          expenditures (PCE) and spending related to both non-durable and durable goods.
                          Investment in equipment and intellectual property rose, while investment in
                          structures and residential real estate declined. In the year-to-date 2019 period,
                          economic expansion has been driven by increases in personal consumption
                          expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, state and local
                          government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment.

                                                                                                                   3-1
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                              Gilbert Market Overview
                                                         Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
FIGURE 3-1
                                                 UNITED STATES GDP GROWTH RATES
                                                     2010 Q1        1.6%
                                                          Q2        3.9%
                                                          Q3        2.8%
                                                          Q4        2.8%
                                                     2011 Q1       -1.3%
                                                          Q2        3.2%
                                                          Q3        0.8%
                                                          Q4        4.6%
                                                     2012 Q1        2.3%
                                                          Q2        1.6%
                                                          Q3        2.5%
                                                          Q4        0.1%
                                                     2013 Q1        1.9%
                                                          Q2        1.1%
                                                          Q3        3.1%
                                                          Q4        4.0%
                                                     2014 Q1       -1.2%
                                                          Q2        4.0%
                                                          Q3        5.0%
                                                          Q4        2.0%
                                                     2015 Q1        3.2%
                                                          Q2        2.7%
                                                          Q3        1.0%
                                                          Q4        0.4%
                                                     2016 Q1        1.5%
                                                          Q2        2.3%
                                                          Q3        1.9%
                                                          Q4        1.8%
                                                     2017 Q1        1.8%
                                                          Q2        3.0%
                                                          Q3        2.8%
                                                          Q4        2.3%
                                                     2018 Q1        2.2%
                                                          Q2        4.2%
                                                          Q3        3.4%
                                                          Q4        2.2%
                                                     2019 Q1        3.1%
                                                       Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

                          U.S. economic growth continues to support expansion of lodging demand. In 2018,
                          demand growth registered 2.5%, just under the 2.7% level recorded in 2017. The
                          economic growth, low unemployment, higher levels of personal income, and
                          stability in the U.S. economy as of early 2019 is helping to maintain strong interest
                          in hotel investments by a diverse array of market participants.

                                                                                                                    3-2
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                               Gilbert Market Overview
                                                          Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
Arizona                   Arizona is the sixth largest state, measuring roughly 114,000 square miles. The state
                          is bordered by California and Nevada to the west, Utah, and Colorado to the north,
                          New Mexico to the east, and Mexico to the south. Interstates 10 and 40 provide
                          access to major cities and destinations throughout the state.

                          The state capital of Arizona is Phoenix. Arizona is home to several other highly
                          populated cities such as Tucson, Scottsdale, and Flagstaff. The Grand Canyon is in
                          north-central Arizona; the Canyon is 277 miles long, 600 feet to 18 miles wide, and
                          over a mile deep. Arizona is known around the world for its natural beauty, pleasant
                          desert winters, varied recreational activities, and diverse cultural opportunities.
                          Arizona’s main economic sectors include services, trade, and manufacturing. The
                          single largest economic sector is services. Arizona has been particularly successful
                          in attracting new high-technology companies.

                          Gilbert is undergoing a major redevelopment of its downtown Heritage District,
                          with an expanding restaurant scene. Developers are seeking approval by the Town
                          Council for high-level housing, retail outlets, restaurant space, office space, and one
                          boutique hotel on a nine-acre site. The multi-phase development of the 272-acre
                          Gilbert Regional Park by the Town is also underway. While the first, $16-million
                          construction phase, anticipated to end in fall of 2019, focuses on park recreational
                          and sports amenities, the second and third phases are expected to include a ten-acre
                          event lawn and an amphitheater. Moreover, a third-party developer has announced
                          the addition of The Strand @ Gilbert to the Regional Park. This 25-acre water park
                          is slated to open in the summer of 2021. The breadth of economic anchors and
                          quality of life in Gilbert, as well as the Town's growing population, should bolster
                          the area's economy in the near term.

Market Area Definition    Gilbert is part of the greater Phoenix MSA economy. Phoenix is the capital and
                          largest city in the state of Arizona, comprising 15 urban villages that include well-
                          known neighborhoods or districts. Greater Phoenix serves as a hub for aerospace,
                          high-tech, bioscience, advanced business services, and sustainable technologies
                          companies. Tourism is an especially vital part of the economy. With more than 16
                          million visitors from throughout the United States and Canada annually visiting for
                          the warm weather and sunshine in the Valley of the Sun, Phoenix is an important
                          resort and regional destination.

                          The market area includes all of Gilbert, Arizona, and the surrounding area, as
                          illustrated in the following map.

                                                                                                                    3-3
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                               Gilbert Market Overview
                                                          Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
MAP OF MARKET AREA

Economic and              HVS used the Complete Economic and Demographic Data Source published by Woods
Demographic Review        & Poole Economics, Inc., a well-regarded forecasting service based in Washington,
                          D.C. as a source of economic and demographic data. Using a database containing
                          more than 900 variables for each county in the nation, Woods & Poole employs a
                          sophisticated regional model to forecast economic and demographic trends. Census
                          data and information published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis provide the
                          basis for historical statistics. Woods & Poole formulates the projections, and all
                          dollar amounts have been adjusted for inflation, thus reflecting real change. The
                          following figure summarizes this data.

                                                                                                                  3-4
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                             Gilbert Market Overview
                                                        Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
FIGURE 3-2
                                    ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC DATA SUMMARY
                                                                                                                Estimated Annual
                                                       Beginning                     Ending
                  Economic Indicator/Area                        2000 2010 2018 2025                            Compound Change
                                                         Amount                      Amount
                                                                                                                  2018 to 2025

      Resident Population (millions)
       Ma ri copa County                                    3.09                                 4.92         1.7%
       Phoeni x-Mes a -Scotts da l e, AZ MSA                3.27                                 5.42         1.7%
       Sta te of Ari zona                                   5.16                                 7.94         1.5%
       Uni ted Sta tes                                    282.16                                 350.94       0.9%
      Per-Capita Personal Income* (thousands)
       Ma ri copa County                                  $35.51                                 $45.2        1.6%
       Phoeni x-Mes a -Scotts da l e, AZ MSA              $34.70                                 $43.6        1.5%
       Sta te of Ari zona                                 $31.56                                 $41.7        1.5%
       Uni ted Sta tes                                    $36.81                                 $50.2        1.2%
      W&P Wealth Index
       Ma ri copa County                                  $99.94                                 $91.85       0.2%
       Phoeni x-Mes a -Scotts da l e, AZ MSA              $97.59                                 $88.73       0.2%
       Sta te of Ari zona                                 $89.41                                 $84.68       0.2%
       Uni ted Sta tes                                   $100.00                                 $100.00      0.0%
      Food and Beverage Sales* (billions)
        Ma ri copa County                                  $4.41                                 $9.08        2.1%
        Phoeni x-Mes a -Scotts da l e, AZ MSA              $4.52                                 $9.44        2.1%
        Sta te of Ari zona                                 $6.68                                 $13.50       2.0%
        Uni ted Sta tes                                  $368.83                                 $662.61      1.5%
      Total Retail Sales* (billions)
        Ma ri copa County                                 $47.31                                 $83.87       2.1%
        Phoeni x-Mes a -Scotts da l e, AZ MSA             $48.54                                 $87.44       2.1%
        Sta te of Ari zona                                $71.25                                 $120.98      2.0%
        Uni ted Sta tes                                $3,902.83                                 $5,598.24    1.4%
      * Inflation Adjusted
                                                Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.

                                  Maricopa County’s project growth in population, per-capita personal income, food,
                                  and beverage sales, and total retail sales exceed both the State of Arizona and the
                                  country. The projected growth in Maricopa County provides the foundation for
                                  growth in hotel room night demand.

Workforce                         The characteristics of an area's workforce indicate the type and amount of transient
Characteristics                   visitation likely to be generated by local businesses. Sectors such as finance,
                                  insurance, and real estate (“FIRE”); wholesale trade; and services produce a
                                  considerable number of visitors who are not particularly rated sensitive. The
                                  government sector often generates transient room nights, but per-diem

                                                                                                                                   3-5
DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                             Gilbert Market Overview
                                                                        Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
reimbursement allowances often limit the accommodations selection to budget and
                                    mid-priced lodging facilities. Contributions from manufacturing, construction,
                                    transportation, communications and public utilities (“TCPU”) employers can also be
                                    important, depending on the company type.

                                    The following figure shows the estimated change in employment in the top ten
                                    sectors in the Maricopa County workforce distribution by the various business
                                    sectors in 2000, 2010, and 2018, and a forecast for 2025.

                                                     FIGURE 3-3
                                    TOP TEN EMPLOYMENT SECTORS IN MARICOPA COUNTY
                                                                          Beginning                                      Ending
                     Sector/Geographic Area Employment                     Amount          2000 2010 2018 2025          Amount
                                                                         (thousands)                                  (thousands)
               Maricopa County
                Hea l th Ca re And Soci a l As s i s tance                      138.6                                     388.7
                 Retai l Tra de                                                 215.2                                     342.1
                 Fi na nce And Ins ura nce                                      125.9                                     272.1
                 Admi ni s tra tive And Wa s te Servi ces                       187.7                                     264.7
                 Accommoda tion And Food Servi ces                              133.4                                     231.8
                  State And Loca l Government                                   156.9                                     222.2
                 Profes s i ona l And Techni ca l Servi ces                     119.4                                     206.2
                 Rea l Es tate And Rental And Lea s e                             86.6                                    196.2
                 Cons truction                                                  144.9                                     174.6
                 Other Servi ces , Except Publ i c Admi ni s tra tion             89.5                                    154.3
                 Other                                                          481.0                                     633.2
                   Total Maricopa County                                      1,879.1                                   3,086.1
                   U.S.                                                     165,372                                   223,254
                                                       Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.

                                    The health care and social assistance, retail trade, state and local government,
                                    accommodation and food service, other services except public administration,
                                    construction, administrative and waste services, transportation and warehousing,
                                    and real estate and rental and lease sectors of the economy should continue to
                                    expand along with the overall growth in the local economy. From 2018 to 2025,
                                    Health Care And Social Assistance are expected to expand at a faster rate for a total
                                    increase of 31.4%. The construction sector has continued to recover from a
                                    significant decline due to the last recession.

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                                    Gilbert Market Overview
                                                                               Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
Unemployment              The following figure presents historical unemployment rates for the Proposed
Statistics                Hotel’s market area.

                                                           FIGURE 3-4
                                                     UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS
                                                     Gilbert          MSA          Arizona          USA

                                 12%

                                 10%

                                  8%

                                  6%

                                  4%

                                  2%

                                  0%
                                       2009   2010   2011      2012         2013    2014     2015         2016   2017   2018

                                                       Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

                          Locally, the unemployment rate was 3.5% in 2018; for this same area in 2019, the
                          most recent month’s unemployment rate registered at 3.4%, versus 3.3% for the
                          same month in 2018. Unemployment rose in 2009, and 2010 as the height of the
                          national recession took hold and remained elevated in 2011. However,
                          unemployment declined in 2012 as the economy rebounded, a trend that continued
                          through 2018.

Major Business and        The following figure shows the largest employers in the region.
Industry

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                 Gilbert Market Overview
                                                            Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
FIGURE 3-5
                                                       TOP EMPLOYERS IN GILBERT
                                                                                                  Number of
                                   Rank                     Major Employers
                                                                                                  Employees

                                     1       Go Da ddy Softwa re, Inc.                                 1,430
                                     2       B H Drywa l l Stucco Pa i nti ng                            997
                                     3       Ba nner Ga tewa y Medi ca l Center                          891
                                     4       Mercy Gi l bert Medi ca l Center                            850
                                     5       Is a geni x Interna ti ona l                                650
                                     6       Hunter Contra cti ng Co.                                    550
                                     7       Wa l ma rt                                                  358
                                     8       Ea rnha rdt Auto Center                                     356
                                     9       Ba nner Home Ca re                                          334
                                    10       Si l ent Ai re USA, Inc.                                    320

                                                    Source: Gilbert Economic Development, 2019

                          Gilbert benefits from a diverse and growing economy anchored by health care,
                          technology, and aerospace. The following bullet points highlight major demand
                          generators for this market:

                             •   Offering a combined two million square feet of medical and research
                                 facilities, Banner M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, the Ironwood Cancer
                                 Research Center, Mercy Gilbert Medical Center, Banner Gateway Medical
                                 Center, Gilbert Hospital, and Translational Research Institute anchor the
                                 healthcare industry in Gilbert. According to economic development officials,
                                 the Banner Center is expanding its 133,000 square-foot clinic by 500,000
                                 square feet to accommodate research trials. Local news sources also report
                                 that Mercy Gilbert Medical is adding a five-story, nearly 374,000 square-foot
                                 Women’s and Children’s Pavilion, which is expected to offer a Level-3
                                 neonatal intensive care unit and 24 labor-and-delivery rooms. The project
                                 broke ground in November 2018 and is expected to be completed in 2020.
                                 Prominent technology firms in the Chandler market include web-hosting
                                 company GoDaddy and Unicon Inc. Due to Gilbert's proximity to Mesa-based
                                 Arizona State University Polytechnic campus, biotech companies such as
                                 REV Biodiesel and Colnatec have been expanding their presence in Gilbert
                                 over the past years. Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman support
                                 Gilbert's Aerospace and Defense sector.
                             •   In June 2018, Deloitte signed an agreement with the Town of Gilbert to
                                 construct a $34-million, 100,000-square-foot U.S. Delivery Center for
                                 technology solutions at The Commons at Rivulon, which is expected to add

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                                Gilbert Market Overview
                                                           Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
2,500 jobs. Rivulon, a 250-acre mixed-use development near Loop 202 and
                              Gilbert Road, currently features multiple car dealerships and the Isagenix
                              world headquarters. The development is expected to feature over three
                              million square feet of Class A office space and an estimated 100,000 square
                              feet of retail space upon full completion. Plans also call for the development
                              of two hotels in Rivulon, although details have yet to be determined.
                              Furthermore, Gilbert is establishing itself as a host of a year-round weekend
                              youth baseball, softball, and soccer tournaments. Town-owned Cactus
                              Yards, a sports facility with eight baseball fields, batting cages, a 20,000-
                              square-foot indoor field house and seating for 1,600, reopened in February
                              2019 after an extensive 19-month, $15-million renovation. According to
                              local news sources, the park attracted over 100 teams and an estimated
                              10,000 spectators on President's Day weekend.
                          •   Intel has a major presence in Chandler with two large campuses, West
                              Chandler Boulevard and South Dobson Road at Ocotillo Road, and two
                              smaller office buildings. The West Chandler Boulevard campus represents
                              the breadth of Intel's business activities worldwide, including planning and
                              logistics, assembly-test and development, packaging development,
                              corporate environmental health and safety, product research, development,
                              venture capital, and sales and marketing. The Dobson-Ocotillo campus
                              focuses primarily on high-volume microprocessor manufacturing. Intel’s
                              fabrication facilities in Arizona manufacture the Intel® Pentium®
                              processor. Intel Corporation completed a new $1.7-billion chip-
                              manufacturing facility, designated Fab 42, at its site in Chandler in 2013. At
                              the time of its construction, the new factory was expected to be the most
                              advanced high-volume semiconductor manufacturing facility in the world
                              and bring 1,000 jobs to the market. However, the building has remained
                              empty since its completion. According to economic development officials,
                              Intel activity and employment levels are expected to remain stable in the
                              near term.
                          •   The finance industry is a key component of the Phoenix area's economy.
                              Wells Fargo, one of the largest banks in the nation, has significant regional
                              operations in Chandler. In December 2013, Wells Fargo broke ground on a
                              $125-million expansion of its Chandler campus; the 410,000 square-foot
                              space doubled the size of its facility at Ocotillo Corporate Center. The new
                              buildings feature office space, a meeting center, and a café and will host
                              approximately 2,500 new employees when open. Moreover, Wells Fargo is
                              seeking approval for another expansion, which will include two 13-story
                              office buildings. Other financial companies, such as Bank of America,
                              Nationstar Mortgage, Toyota Financial Services, and GM Financial Services,
                              also have a strong presence Chandler.

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                           Gilbert Market Overview
                                                      Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
•   The technology and aerospace industries are key employers in Chandler.
                                 Technology firms with a major presence in the Chandler market include
                                 Freescale Semiconductor, Orbital ATK, PayPal, Microchip Technology,
                                 General Motors, Garmin International, Infusionsoft, and Avnet. In 2014,
                                 General Motors opened its 150,000-square-foot IT Innovation Center in
                                 Chandler. Arizona state officials project the innovation center will have a
                                 $580-million economic impact over a five-year period. Also, in 2014, Garmin
                                 International opened a 60,000-square-foot research and development
                                 facility in the Chandler Corporate Center. The expansion has allowed for an
                                 additional 140 jobs in the Chandler market. According to economic
                                 development officials, PayPal and Infusionsoft have plans for future
                                 expansion.
                          The area economy is diverse, with strong employers in the technology,
                          manufacturing, finance, and aerospace industries. Major companies such as Intel,
                          PayPal, Wells Fargo, and General Motors maintain a strong presence in Chandler,
                          while the healthcare and retail sectors further support the local economy. DaVita
                          RX, CVS Health, Apria Healthcare, and Banner Health are major healthcare
                          companies in Chandler. The Chandler Regional Medical Center is the seventh-
                          largest employer in Chandler. Additionally, Chandler Fashion Center is the second-
                          largest mall in the Phoenix metropolitan area and features over 180 stores. The
                          breadth of economic anchors in Chandler and the Town’s growing population will
                          positively influence lodging demand.

Airport Traffic           Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX) is the principal gateway for the
                          Valley of the Sun region of Arizona, with major commercial airlines serving cities in
                          the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Europe. Growth of the airport has been spurred by a
                          surge of population and job gains in the state over the last decade, as well as the
                          successes of Dallas-based Southwest Airlines and Tempe-based US Airways, which
                          merged with American Airlines in 2015. PHX Sky Train, an automated train
                          stretching from 44th Street and Washington Street to the airport terminals and
                          parking area, opened in 2013. The expansion of the Sky Train to the Rental Car
                          Center is underway and will be operational in 2021. A $590-million Terminal
                          Modernization Program of Terminal 3 began in March 2015. Phase I was completed
                          in December 2016, which included a new security checkpoint, additional ticket
                          counters, and baggage handling facilities. Phase II, which was completed in January
                          2019, added a 15-gate concourse with large seating areas and food and retail
                          concessions. Phase III is planned to add new food and beverage facilities and
                          enhanced customer amenities with new finishes to the north concourse; this final
                          phase is scheduled to be completed in 2020.

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DRAFT - August 19, 2019                                                              Gilbert Market Overview
                                                         Proposed Gilbert Regional Park Hotel - Gilbert, Arizona
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