Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development - IPCC
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Risk management and
decision-making in relation
7SM
SPM to sustainable development
Supplementary Material
Coordinating Lead Authors:
Margot Hurlbert (Canada), Jagdish Krishnaswamy (India)
Lead Authors:
Edouard Davin (France/Switzerland), Francis X. Johnson (Sweden), Carlos Fernando
Mena (Ecuador), John Morton (United Kingdom), Soojeong Myeong (The Republic of Korea),
David Viner (United Kingdom), Koko Warner (The United States of America), Anita Wreford
(New Zealand), Sumaya Zakieldeen (Sudan), Zinta Zommers (Latvia)
Contributing Authors:
Rob Bailis (The United States of America), Brigitte Baptiste (Colombia), Kerry Bowman
(Canada), Edward Byers (Austria/Brazil), Katherine Calvin (The United States of America),
Rocio Diaz-Chavez (Mexico), Jason Evans (Australia), Amber Fletcher (Canada), James Ford
(United Kingdom), Sean Patrick Grant (The United States of America), Darshini Mahadevia (India),
Yousef Manialawy (Canada), Pamela McElwee (The United States of America), Minal Pathak
(India), Julian Quan (United Kingdom), Balaji Rajagopalan (The United States of America),
Alan Renwick (New Zealand), Jorge E. Rodríguez-Morales (Peru), Charlotte Streck (Germany),
Wim Thiery (Belgium), Alan Warner (Barbados)
Review Editors:
Regina Rodrigues (Brazil), B.L. Turner II (The United States of America)
Chapter Scientist:
Thobekile Zikhali (Zimbabwe)
This chapter supplementary material should be cited as:
Hurlbert, M., J. Krishnaswamy, E. Davin, F.X. Johnson, C.F. Mena, J. Morton, S. Myeong, D. Viner, K. Warner, A. Wreford,
S. Zakieldeen, Z. Zommers, 2019: Risk Management and Decision making in Relation to Sustainable Development
Supplementary Material. In: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification,
land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems
[P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, E. Calvo Buendia, V. Masson-Delmotte, H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, P. Zhai, R. Slade, S. Connors,
R. van Diemen, M. Ferrat, E. Haughey, S. Luz, S. Neogi, M. Pathak, J. Petzold, J. Portugal Pereira, P. Vyas, E. Huntley,
K. Kissick, M. Belkacemi, J. Malley, (eds.)]. In press.
7SM-1Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development
Table of contents
SM7.1 Supplementary information to Section 7.2 �������������� 3
SM7.2 Additional embers ������������������������������������������������������������������������ 71
SM7.3 SSP and Mitigation Burning Embers ����������������������������� 72
References ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 73
7SM
7SM-2Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
SM7.1 Supplementary information to Section 7.2
The burning embers diagrams (Figure 7.1, 7.2 and 7.3) outline risks
associated with climate change as a function of global warming,
socio-economic development and mitigation choices. Diagrams
indicate transitions between undetectable, moderate, high, and
very high risks to humans and ecosystems. The method is based
on a literature review of estimated impacts at different global
mean surface temperature levels (O’Neill et al. 2017) on different
components of desertification, land degradation and food security,
including emerging literature on Shared Socio-economic Pathways
(SSPs) as well as literature from IPCC AR5 and SR15.
Most studies focus on changes in hazards as a function of climate
change (e.g. as represented by RCP scenarios or other climate
change scenarios) or climate change superimposed on present-day
exposure. Only a limited number of studies focus on changes in risk
as a function of both RCPs and SSPs (climate and socio-economic
change and adaptation decisions). This was addressed by splitting
the embers into different figures. Figure 7.1 focuses on the impact of
climate change on risk, under present-day exposure and vulnerability.
Figure 7.2 examines the relationship between climate change and
risks under two SSPs (SSP1 and SSP3). Figure 7.3 depicts risks to
humans and ecosystems as a function of the land area employed for
mitigation through bioenergy plantations.
Further, a formal expert elicitation protocol, based on the modified-
Delphi technique (Mukherjee et al. 2015) and the Sheffield Elicitation
Framework (Oakley and O’Hagan 2016; Gosling 2018), was followed
to develop threshold judgments on risk transitions. Specifically,
experts participated in a multi-round elicitation process, with
feedback of group opinion provided after each round: the first two
rounds involved independent anonymous threshold judgment, and
the final round involved a group consensus discussion (von der Gracht
2012). To strengthen the rigor of developing expert consensus on risk
transitions (Hasson and Keeney 2011), the protocol pre-specified
the following prior to beginning the elicitation exercise (Grant et al.
2018): the research question, eligibility criteria and strategy to recruit
experts, research materials, data collection procedure, and analysis
plan. This systematic process of developing expert consensus on
threshold judgments for risk transitions can better inform subsequent
analytical approaches – an approach that may be further developed
for use in future IPCC cycles (Bojke et al. 2010; Sperber et al. 2013).
References for the current and past assessments are listed at the end
of this document and by the relevant tables.
7SM
7SM-3Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Table SM7.1 | Literature considered in the expert judgement of risk transitions for Figure 7.1.
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
AVAILABILITY
Between 3 and
4 degrees catastrophic
declines in low
Strong negative effect Maize about –20 Maize +15 to –20%
See Figure 1 in paper. latitudes for maize,
on yields, especially to +5% yield change yield change in mid Maize is now
Maize mid to high Maize – 20 to +5% wheat also significant
Rosenzweig 2014 Availability Yield Yield at higher levels of NA in mid latitude latitude. Catastrophic all negative in Low latitudes
latitude is –10 to yield change declines around
warming and at lower and ALL negative in low latitude with mid latitude
+15% yield change 4 degrees and same
latitudes in low latitude –10 to –60% change!
for rice. Adaptation
potential limited
at these temp.
“Increases the
likelihood of such
events considerably,
and may
Zscheischler et al. Availability make events of the
Crop yield Review 2010
2018 (crop failure) rarity of the Russian
event foreseeable
and to
some extent
predictable”
Limiting global
warming to 1.5°C
Availability compared to 2°C
IPCC 2019 Yield Decrease to yields NA
(crop yields) would result in a
lower global reduction
in crop yields
Availability (increased
Infection of staple
loss of crops and
food commodities
livestock; increased
by fungal diseases Reduced availability
Medina et al. 2017 pest burden, increased NA
pre-harvest and of food
disease burden; higher
by spoilage fungi
post-harvest losses
post-harvest
due to mycotoxins)
Unclear. “Crops
introduced to exploit
altered climate may
Availability (increased
be subject to fewer
loss of crops and
mycotoxin producing
livestock; increased
Paterson and Lima Reduced availability fungi (the “Parasites
pest burden, increased Crops after harvest NA NA
2011 of food Lost” phenomenon).
disease burden; higher
Increased mycotoxins
post-harvest losses
and UV radiation may
due to mycotoxins)
cause fungi to mutate
on crops and produce
different mycotoxins”
Availability (increased
loss of crops and
livestock; increased
Reduced availability
Magan et al. 2011 pest burden, increased Crops after harvest NA NA
of food
disease burden; higher
post-harvest losses
due to mycotoxins)
7SM 7SM
7SM-4 7SM-5Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Local / traditional
knowledge in
Availability (increased agriculture (LTKA)
loss of crops and is proposed in this
Rivera-Ferre et al. livestock; increased article / has valid
Reduced availability
2016 pest burden, increased Crop yield NA NA knowledge to ensure
of food
disease burden; higher food availability under
post-harvest losses climate change, given
due to mycotoxins) its long experience
in dealing with
climate variability
Availability (increased
Three SRES climate Three SRES climate
Zimmermann et al. yields if management
Crop yields in Europe Increased yields change scenarios change scenarios
2017 assumptions hold,
to 2050 to 2050
thermal management)
Success of
Availability (modeled intensification
Faye et al. 2018 Crop yield Negative NA
crop yield) the key factor making
the difference
“At regional scale,
they found maize
Availability (modeled yields declines in
Tesfaye et al. 2017 Crop yield Negative NA
crop yield) 2050 of up to 12%
to 14% in rainfed
and irrigated maize”
Availability (modeled Mean yield declines
Scheelbeek et al. 2018 Crop yield Negative NA
crop yield) of fruits –31.5%
“30–60% of common
bean growing area
and 20–40% of
banana growing areas
Availability (modeled
Rippke et al. 2016 Crop yield Negative NA To end of 21st century in Africa will lose
crop yield)
viability in 2078–2098
with a global
temperature increase
of 2.6 and 4.0”
Availability (modeled
fruit crop yield), and
Bisbis et al. 2018 utilization (reduced Crop yield Negative NA
quality, more spoilage,
reduced nutrition)
Availability (models
Short (2021–2040),
relation between
Tebaldi and Lobell medium (2041–2060) “Critical or “lethal”
climate variables, Crop yield Negative RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
2018 and long (2061–2080) heat extreme
CO2 concentrations,
time horizons
and yields)
Availability (reduced “Half a degree
yields and soil fertility Negative for half a warming will also lead
Schleussner et al. 2018 and increased land Yield degree additional HAPPI to more extreme low
degradation for some warming (1.5 to 2) yields, in particular
regions and crops) over tropical regions”
Availability (reduced
yields and soil fertility
Decrease in
Ovalle et al. 2015 and increased land Yield NA
coffee yields
degradation for some
regions and crops)
Availability (reduced
yields and soil fertility
Bunn et al. 2015 Decrease in coffee
and increased land Yield NA
yields by 50%
degradation for some
7SM regions and crops) 7SM
7SM-6 7SM-7Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Productivity of major
Availability (reduced
crops will decline as
yields and soil fertility
Roberts and Schlenker a result of climate
and increased land Yield NA
2013 change, particularly
degradation for some
from increasing
regions and crops)
warming
Availability (reduced Grain yield of rice
yields and soil fertility declined 10% for each
Peng et al. 2004 and increased land Grain yields 1°C increase in night- NA –10% –20% –30% –40% –50%
degradation for some time temperature
regions and crops) during the dry season
Availability (reduced While maize and
yields and soil fertility soy bean yields are
Soy bean & –12% / –18% / –24% / –30% /
Asseng et al. 2015 and increased land expected to decline NA –6% / day above 30°C
maize yields day above 30°C day above 30°C day above 30°C day above 30°C
degradation for some by 6% for each day
regions and crops) above 30°C
Availability (reduced
Wheat yields are
yields and soil fertility
expected to decline Warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-
Asseng et al. 2017 and increased land Wheat yields NA –0.06 –0.12 –0.18 –0.24 –0.3
by 6% for each growing locations.
degradation for some
1°C increase
regions and crops)
Availability (reduced If global temperature
yields and soil fertility increases beyond
Porter et al. 2014 and increased land Crop yields all crops 3°C it will have NA Negative yield impact
degradation for some negative yield impacts
regions and crops) on all crops
Availability (reduced
increasing competition
yields and soil fertility
for land from
Schleussner et al. 2016 and increased land Competition for land NA
the expansion
degradation for some
of bioenergy
regions and crops)
Availability (reduced
yields and soil fertility
On-farm and via
Fischer et al. 2005 and increased land Decrease in yields NA 10% 10–20% 10–20% 10–20%
market mechanisms
degradation for some
regions and crops)
Availability (reduced
yields and soil fertility
Smith et al. 2016 and increased land Soil Reduced yields NA NA
degradation for some
regions and crops)
Availability (reduced
yields and soil fertility
Challinor et al. 2014 and increased land Crop yield Reduced yields NA 2050 to end of century
degradation for some
regions and crops)
Availability (reduced
yields and soil fertility
FAO 2018 and increased land Crop yield Reduced yields NA
degradation for some
regions and crops)
Availability (reduced
yields and soil fertility
Roberts and Schlenker and increased land
Decrease in yields NA 30–46% 30–46% 63–80% 63–80%
2013 degradation for some
regions and crops)
(3crops)
7SM 7SM
7SM-8 7SM-9Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Availability (reduced
yields and soil fertility
and increased land
Betts et al. 2018 Yield Decrease NA
degradation for some
regions and crops)
(food crops)
Availability (reduced
yields and soil fertility
and increased land
Tigchelaar et al. 2018 Decrease in yields NA 7–10% 87%
degradation for some
regions and crops)
(Maize)
Availability (reduced
yields and soil fertility
Declining yield
and increased land Study doesn’t
Leng and Hall 2019 (but varies between NA
degradation for some consider adaptations
crops and regions)
regions and crops)
(six crops)
Availability (reduced
yields and soil fertility
Increasing altitude
and increased land
Bocchiola et al. 2019 Declining NA – increases yield for
degradation for some
maize and rice slightly
regions and crops)
(wheat, rice, maize)
Availability (simulated AgMIP coordinated
Rosenzweig et al.
wheat and maize Crop yield Negative global and regional Between 1.5 and 2.0
2018
yield changes) assessment (CGRA)
Availability (simulated
Parkes et al. 2018 wheat and maize Crop yield Negative NA Between 1.0 and 1.5
yield changes)
Positive effect of CO2 Corn: –10 to +20%
Lombardozzi et al. on future crop yields CESM/CLM4.5 Wheat +40 to +100%;
Availability (Yield) Yield 2006–2100
2018 muted by negative under RCP8.5 Soy –10 to +5%;
impacts of climate Rice +10 to +50%
Decrease in organic
Chen et al. 2018 Availability (Yield) Yield matter in soil, NA
soil erosion
Leng 2018 Availability (Yield) Yield NA
Byers et al. 2018 Availability (Yield) Yield NA
Decrease in barley
Availability yield, consumption
Xie et al. 2018 Yield NA –3% –10% –17%
barley yields (beer) (and hence global
beer supply)
Negative corn
Negative corn yield
yield response Majority of
response to warmer
2.5% decrease of corn yield for the historical period, which is to warmer growing impacts will be
growing season. Corn
Leng and Hall 2019 Availability Corn Yields Yield Decrease to yields NA reduced to 1.8% if accounting for the effects of corn growing season, largest yield driven by trends in
yield is predicted to
pattern changes reduction up to temperature rather
decrease by 20~40%
20% by 1° increase than precipitation
by 2050s
of temperature
Leng 2018 Availability crop yields Yield Decrease in yields NA
Su et al. 2018 Availability crop yields Yield Decrease in yields NA
Availability Yield, production/
Zhao et al. 2017 Decrease in yield NA
maize yields per hectare
Brisson et al. 2010 Availability Yield Yield Yield losses/plateauing NA
Lin and Huybers 2012 Availability Yield Yield Yield losses/plateauing NA
Grassini et al. 2013 Availability Yield Yield Yield losses/plateauing NA
7SM 7SM
7SM-10 7SM-11Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Adaptation could lead
to crop yields that are
7–15% higher. Gains
Availability yield will be highest in
Myers et al. 2017 Yield NA
declines temperate areas but
will be unlikely to help
tropical maize and
wheat production
Mitigation policy
Hasegawa et al. 2018 combined with climate Available land NA
effect on yields
ACCESS
Schmidhuber and Current period
Access Price (cereal) Price Increase in price NA 80% 170%
Tubiello 2007 (timewise)
Easterling et al. 2007 Access Price (cereal) Price Increase in price NA 10–30% 10–30% 10–40% 10–40% 10–40%
Increase fertiliser and
Access Price
Parry et al. 2004 Price Increase in price NA 5–35% pesticide application,
(food crops)
irrigation
Food policy scenarios
Access Price (international aid,
Fujimori et al. 2018 Price Increase in price NA
(food crops) domestic reallocation,
bioenergy tax)
New crop varieties,
Access Price significant expansion
Hertel et al. 2010 Price Increase in price NA 3.60% 10–15%
(major staples) of irrigation
Infrastructure
Access
Low (soil health
(disproportionate
provides key
impact on low-
adaptation option,
income consumers,
UNCCD 2017 Soil health Negative NA without which lit
in particular women
reviewed by UNCCD
and girls, due to
points towards low
lack of resources
adaptation potential)
to purchase food)
Access (inability to Agricultural yields and
invest in adaptation earnings, food prices,
Reduced access
Vermeulen et al. 2012 and diversification reliability of delivery, NA
to food
measures to endure food quality, and,
price rises) notably, food safety
Access (indirect Strong negative
impacts due to effects of climate
spatial dislocation Reduced access change, especially
Morris et al. 2017 Crop Yield GGCMs
of consumption from to food at higher levels
production for many of warming and
societies) at low latitudes
Access (loss of
agricultural income
due to reduced yields
FAO 2016a and higher costs of Crop Yield Negative NA Likely 1.0 and 1.5
production inputs,
such as water, limits
ability to buy food)
Access (loss of
agricultural income
due to reduced yields
Abid et al. 2016 and higher costs of Farm income Negative NA Likely 1.0 and 1.5
production inputs,
such as water, limits
ability to buy food)
7SM 7SM
7SM-12 7SM-13Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Access (loss of
agricultural income
due to reduced yields
Harvey et al. 2014 and higher costs of Farm income Negative NA Likely 1.0 and 1.5
production inputs,
such as water, limits
ability to buy food)
Calvin et al. 2014 Access (Price) Price increase in price NA 320%
Kreidenweis et al. Increase investment
Access (Price) Price Increase in price NA 60–80%
2016 in R&D, etc
Doubling of demands
Tilman and Clark 2014 Access demand Demand NA
by 2050
Key wheat-growing
regions display yield
“persistent large-scale
reductions from −28% “Besides Australia,
harvest failures may
(Australia) to −6% three more regions
Chatzopoulos et al. Negative. Large-scale events will ‘very likely’ occur more deplete grain stocks
Access Economic impacts (US and Ukraine). exceed a reduction of
2019 frequently, more intensely, and last longer and thus render
...consumer prices –20%: Canada, Russia,
future prices even
increase by up to one and Kazakhstan.”
more responsive.”
third, most notably
in Asian countries
UTILIZATION
Utilization (decline
in nutritional Negative (heat stress
Müller et al. 2014 quality resulting Human migration induced long-term NA
from increasing migration of people)
atmospheric CO2)
Low/Moderate.
Differences between
cultivars of a
Utilization (decline single crop suggest
in nutritional that breeding for
Myers et al. 2014 quality resulting Zinc and iron Reduced nutrition NA 2050 or 550 ppm decreased sensitivity
from increasing to atmospheric CO2
atmospheric CO2) concentration could
partly address these
new challenges to
global health
Utilization (decline
in nutritional
Negative
Smith et al. 2017 quality resulting Iron NA 550 ppm
(iron deficiency)
from increasing
atmospheric CO2)
The total number of
Utilization (decline
people estimated to
in nutritional Zinc deficiency
Negative be placed at new risk
Myers et al. 2015 quality resulting under different CO2 NA 2050
(zinc deficiency) of zinc deficiency by
from increasing concentrations
2050 was 138 million
atmospheric CO2)
(95% CI 120–156)
Utilization (higher
Reduced availability
Moretti et al. 2019 post-harvest losses Crops after harvest NA Current to 2050
of food
due to mycotoxins)
Utilization (negative
impact on food
safety due to
Van der Fels-Klerx effect of increased
Reduced utilization
et al. 2016 temperatures on Crops after harvest NA
of food
microorganisms,
including increased
mycotoxins in food
7SM 7SM
and feed)
7SM-14 7SM-15Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Utilization (negative
impact on food
safety due to
Tirado and Meerman effect of increased
Reduced utilization
2012 temperatures on NA To midcentury
of food
microorganisms,
including increased
mycotoxins in food
and feed)
Utilization (negative
impact on nutrition
Aberman and Tirado resulting from reduced Food availability,
Negative NA 2020–end of century
2014 water quantity and utilization, access
quality used to
prepare food)
Utilization (negative
impact on nutrition
Thompson and Cohen resulting from reduced Nutrition, distribution
Negative NA
2012 water quantity and of food
quality used to
prepare food)
Associated impacts Limiting global
are both detectable warming to 1.5°C
Indicates closer
Decrease in nutritional At 0.87, yellow – associated impacts are both detectable and and attributable compared to 2°C
IPCC 2018 Utilization (nutrition) Nutrients NA to severe and
content attributable to climate change with at least medium confidence to climate change would result in a
widespread impacts
with at least lower global reduction
medium confidence in nutritional quality
Grain yield per plant
was greater under
e[CO2]. Irrigation
treatment significantly
enhanced grain yield
by 128%. Grain
protein concentration
(%) decreased by
12% in e[CO2] grown
wheat compared to
a[CO2]. Grain protein
Above ground concentration (%) was
biomass production 15% higher in rain-fed
and yield will typically than well-watered
increase by 17–20% treatments but did
while concentrations not differ between
of nutrients such the two wheat
Bahrami et al. 2017 Utilization Nutrients Nutrients NA
as N will decrease cultivars. Continuing
by 9–15% in plant favourable water
tissues. Here they supply conditions
found – The 12% for photosynthesis
loss in grain protein during grain
under e[CO2] filling can prolong
carbohydrate delivery
to grains and thereby
increase yield but
depress grain protein,
which is consistent
with greater grain
yield and lower grain
protein concentrations
in well watered
compared to rain-fed
crops in our study
7SM 7SM
7SM-16 7SM-17Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Decrease Under eCO2,
rice, wheat, barley,
and potato protein
Medek et al. 2017 Utilization nutrition Protein content NA
contents decreased by
7.6%, 7.8%, 14.1%,
and 6.4%,respectively
CO2 concentrations
of 550 ppm can lead
to 3–11% decreases
of zinc and iron
concentrations
in cereal
grains and legumes
and 5–10% reductions
in the concentration
of phosphorus,
Smith et al. 2017 Utilization nutrition Nutrients NA
potassium,
calcium, sulfur,
magnesium, iron,
zinc, copper, and
manganese across
a wide range
of crops under
more extreme
conditions of
690 ppm CO2
Increased connectivity
and flows within
global trade networks
suggest that the
global food system
Utilization (disruptions is vulnerable to
to food storage Reduced utilization systemic disruptions,
Puma et al. 2015 Crops after harvest NA 1992–2009 Moderate risk at present
and transportation of food especially considering
networks) tendency for exporting
countries to switch
to non-exporting
states during times
of food scarcity in
the global markets
Utilization (disruptions
to food storage Reduced utilization
Wellesley et al. 2017 Food prices NA
and transportation of food
networks)
STABILITY
In semiarid areas,
droughts can
dramatically reduce
crop yields and
livestock numbers
and productivity
(most in Food import, freer
Negative. Increased fluctuations in crop yields and local food
sub-Saharan Africa trade, investment
Schmidhuber and High Fluctuation supplies and higher risks of landslides and erosion damage,
Stability NA and parts of South (storage, irrigation,
Tubiello 2007 (price, supply, yields) they can adversely affect the stability of food supplies and thus
Asia) poorest regions transport,
food security
with the highest communication)
level of chronic
undernourishment
will also be exposed
to the highest
degree of instability
in food production
7SM 7SM
7SM-18 7SM-19Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
1. Extreme events will
severely disrupt the
food supply
2. Extreme events
Stability (civil will escalate
Zheng et al. 2014 disturbance, Social tension Disruption food supply NA popular unrest,
social tension) rebellions and wars
3. Extreme events
will increase
expenditure
to 60 –70%
Stability (impacts on
world market export
Diffenbaugh prices that carry
Price of corn Negative NA
et al. 2012 through to domestic
consumer prices due
to climate shocks)
Stability (impacts on
world market export
prices that carry
Verma et al. 2014 Price of corn Likely negative NA
through to domestic
consumer prices due
to climate shocks)
1. Extreme events,
such as flooding,
can wipe out
Negative (potential economic
Stability (impacts on food price impacts of infrastructure;
world market export a number of extreme 2. Agricultural
prices that carry weather event infrastructure
Willenbockel 2012 Food price NA 2030
through to domestic scenarios in 2030 will be affected
consumer prices due for each of the main 3. Weather-related
to climate shocks) exporting regions for yield shocks
rice, maize and wheat) occurred will occur
4. Global crop
production
will drop
Disruption food Agricultural
Stability (political supply, price intensification,
Salmon et al. 2015 Rainfall, temperature NA
and economic) fluctuation, decrease changes in land
in production use practices
Medina-Elizalde Stability (political
Rainfall Low yields NA
and Rohling 2012 and economic)
Stability
(widespread crop
Challinor et al. 2018 failure contributing Crop failure Negative NA Moderate
to migration
and conflict)
Stability
(widespread crop
Hendrix 2018 failure contributing Crop failure Negative NA Current Moderate
to migration
and conflict)
7SM 7SM
7SM-20 7SM-21Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
“Multiyear drought
episodes in the late
1950s, 1980s, and
1990s, (i) the total
Stability population of Syria
(widespread crop Negative. severe drought 2006/2007 caused northeastern grew from 4 million
Kelley et al. 2017 failure contributing Crop failure Negative NA Current “breadbasket” region to collapse (zero or near-zero production, in the 1950s to Low to medium
to migration livestock herds lost) 22 million in recent
and conflict) years; (ii) decline
groundwater supply
(iii) drought occurred
shortly after the
1990s drought
1. Extreme events
Stability (widespread will lead to
crop failure Negative, low yields unprecedented rise
Kelley et al. 2015 Crop failure NA Current Low
contributing to and price increase in food prices
migration and conflict) 2. Extreme events will
obliterate livestock
1. Droughts can
dramatically
Fluctuation (yield reduce crop yields Food imports, Freer
Stability and supply), and livestock trade, Investment
Schmidhuber and
production, supply Extreme events Reduction (labour, NA productivity (storage, irrigation,
Tubiello 2007
chain, extreme events productivity), Increase 2. Exposed to the transport,
(disease burden) highest degree of communication)
instability in food
production
Besides Australia, The transmission Buffer stock schemes
three more regions of domestic prices for stabilizing supply
exceed a reduction of to global markets and prices of major
Key wheat-growing –20%: Canada, Russia, is visible in most staple commodities
Negative. climate extremes collide with major drivers (population regions display yield and Kazakhstan. scenarios with in food-insecure
Chatzopoulos et al. Stability (variability Fluctuation (yield,
Yield, market, price NA growth, dietary shifts, environmental degradation, and trade reductions −28% The highest absolute large shocks in regions may mitigate
2019 in supply, price) market and price)
interdependence (Australia) to −6% drops, corresponding key exporters some of the induced
(US and Ukraine). to −0.9 tha–1 and and importers price volatility but
−0.7 tha–1, were being responsible are generally difficult
found in Canada for the most to achieve and sustain
and Russia. pronounced effects. in practice
Negative, trade
in situations
where global grain
production is reduced
does not distribute
2009–2011 food
world food stocks/
price increases led
inadequate and
to increases in social
counter to modeling
unrest, food price Medium in
Bellemare 2015 Stability (trade) Trade, supply, price results (in reality NA 2007–2010 Negative
volatility has not SSP1-like world
producing countries
been associated
protect domestic grain
with increases
reserves; prices spike
in social unrest
upwards in times of
reduced yields but
do not fall as much
in times of normal
or increased yields)
Stability (variability Fluctuation (yield,
Zampieri et al. 2017 Yield, market, price NA Negative
in supply, price) market and price)
7SM 7SM
7SM-22 7SM-23Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Negative, trade in
situations where
global grain
Open trade helps
production is reduced
improve access to
does not distribute
food at lower prices,
world food stocks/
combined with
inadequate and
observations in other
counter to modeling
articles about impact
Donati et al. 2016 Stability (trade) Trade, supply, price results (in reality 2007–2010 Negative
of market speculation
producing countries
(US) combined with
protect domestic grain
export restraints
reserves; prices spike
(Russia, Ukraine, India,
upwards in times of
Vietnam) in 2007–
reduced yields but
2011 drought periods.
do not fall as much
in times of normal
or increased yields)
“World dollar prices
of major agricultural
food commodities rose
dramatically from late
Negative, trade in 2006 through to mid-
situations where 2008. Prices collapsed
global grain dramatically in the
production is reduced second half of 2008
does not distribute with the onset of the
world food stocks/ financial crisis. periods
inadequate and of high volatility have
counter to modeling been relatively
Gilbert and Morgan Negative. not yet clear if trend in food price volatility is
Stability (trade) Trade, supply, price results (in reality 2007–2010 short and interspaced Moderate Global
2010 permanent
producing countries with longer periods
protect domestic grain of market tranquillity.
reserves; prices spike It would therefore
upwards in times of be wrong simply to
reduced yields but extrapolate recent
do not fall as much and current high
in times of normal volatility levels into
or increased yields) the future. However,
it remains valid to
ask whether part of
the volatility rise may
be permanent.”
Negative, trade in
situations where
global grain
production is reduced
does not distribute Index‐based
world food stocks/ investment in
inadequate and agricultural futures
counter to modeling markets is seen as the Moderate depending
Negative. not yet clear if trend in food price volatility is
Gilbert 2010 Stability (trade) Trade, supply, price results (in reality 2007–2010 major channel through on exposure to market
permanent
producing countries which macroeconomic speculation
protect domestic grain and monetary factors
reserves; prices spike generated the 2007–
upwards in times of 2008 food price rise
reduced yields but
do not fall as much
in times of normal or
increased yields)
7SM 7SM
7SM-24 7SM-25Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
When food prices
peaked in June of
Negative, trade in
2008, they soared
situations where “In all cases except
well above the new
global grain soybeans, we find
equilibrium price.
production is reduced that large surges
observations that
does not distribute in export volumes
international rice
world food stocks/ preceded the price
prices surged in
inadequate and surges. The presence
response to export
counter to modeling of these large demand
restrictions by
Headey 2011 Stability (trade) Trade, supply, price results (in reality Negative surges, together with
India and Vietnam
producing countries back-of-the-envelope
suggested that trade-
protect domestic grain estimates of their price
related factors could
reserves; prices spike impacts, suggests that
be an important basis
upwards in times of trade events played a
for overshooting,
reduced yields but much larger and more
especially given
do not fall as much pervasive role than
the very tangible
in times of normal or previously thought.”
link between
increased yields)
export volumes
and export prices
Negative, trade in
situations where
Increased number
global grain Supply shocks “Compounded risk: Medium. Trade
and volume of trade
production is reduced driven not only by greater reliance on dependency has
links (relative to
does not distribute the intensification imports increases substantially
production), decrease
world food stocks/ of trade, but as the risk of critical increased in the last
and a more even Possibility of
inadequate and importantly by food supply losses few decades and more
distribution of global multiple supply
counter to modeling changes in the following a foreign than doubled since the
Negative. Without coordinated and effective international reserves (still relative side shocks across
Marchand et al. 2016 Stability (trade) Trade, supply, price results (in reality 2007–2010 distribution of shock, notably in mid-1980s likely as a
and domestic risk management of food stocks to production). – different regions of
producing countries reserves. trade the case of several result of liberalization
->distribution of the world (multi-
protect domestic grain dependency may Central American and the associated
reserves matters more breadbasket failure)
reserves; prices spike accentuate the risk and Caribbean removal of subsidies
than their aggregate
upwards in times of of food shortages countries that import and trade
quantity in terms of
reduced yields but from foreign grains from the protections in
conferring resilience
do not fall as much production shocks United States” developing countries
to shocks.
in times of normal or
increased yields)
Negative, trade in
situations where
global grain
production is reduced
does not distribute
world food stocks/
Depends on food
inadequate and
“Chinese drought contributed to a doubling of global wheat reserves, trade policy
counter to modeling
Stability prices. The drought affected the price of bread in Egypt which (risk management)
Sternberg 2012 Trade, supply, price results (in reality 2007–2010
(trade, political) influenced political protest. The process exemplifies the potential and if multi-
producing countries
global consequences of climate hazards today.” breadbasket failure
protect domestic grain
is present
reserves; prices spike
upwards in times
of reduced yields but
do not fall as much
in times of normal
or increased yields)
7SM 7SM
7SM-26 7SM-27Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Permafrost degradation
Increased loss of
permafrost, leading
to radical changes
in high-latitude
hydrology and
biogeochemical
Permafrost Permafrost area
Chadburn et al. 2017 cycling. Estimated CMIP5, multiple RCPs 1850–2300 Indirectly 13 9 6 4 2 Global
degradation change (million km2)
sensitivity of
permafrost area
loss to global
mean warming at
stabilization of 4.0 ±
1.1 million km2°C–1
Additional emissions
between 225 and
345 GtC (10th to JULES-IMOGEN
Increased land 1.5: 0.08 to 0.09 to 0.19 GtC yr−1
Permafrost 90th percentile) from intermediate 1.5° and 2°C
Burke et al. 2018 carbon emissions at 0.16 GtC yr−1 (10th (10th to 90th Global
degradation permafrost thaw complexity climate stabilization
stabilization Gt C yr–1 to 90th percentile) percentile)
under 2°C stabilised model
warming. 60–100 GtC
less in a 1.5°C world
Jorgenson & Permafrost Increased
Water erosion Review Global
Osterkamp 2005 degradation water erosion
Permafrost thawing
in dry continental
Siberia may trigger
Fennoscandia, Siberia
widespread drought-
Permafrost and the northern
Gauthier et al., 2015 Tree mortality induced mortality in Review
degradation reaches of North
dark coniferous forests
America
and larch forests that
cover 20% of the
global boreal forest
Permafrost thawing
will reinforce the
greenhouse effect
Carbon release by
and induce irreversible
Permafrost Damage to forest 2100 could be several
FAO 2012 damage to forest Review 2012–2030 Siberia
degradation hydrological regimes times that of current
hydrological regimes,
tropical deforestation
especially across
regions receiving
little rainfall
Increases in
nearsurface
Permafrost is now
permafrost
warming at almost all
temperatures during
sites across the North Rapid degradation
2007–2009 are
American permafrost and disappearance
up to 2°C warmer
zones, except for site over extensive areas 16%–35% of
compared to 2–3
Permafrost where the permafrost within next 50–100 Canadian permafrost
Price et al., 2013 Permafrost thaw decades, and there is Review 1995–2100 Canada
degradation is already close to years. Accelerated area in 2000 may
a concurrent trend in
0°C and vertical degradation by be lost by 2100
its degradation and
ground temperature 2050 likely in
disappearance. Overall
profiles are isothermal, several regions
transient responses
indicating ongoing
of permafrost to
phase changes
warming are likely
to be nonlinear
7SM 7SM
7SM-28 7SM-29Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Proportion of
all residential,
transportation,
and industrial Arctic infrastructure
4 million people,
Permafrost infrastructure in areas at risk from Infrastructure hazard
Hjort et al. 2018 2041–2060 70% of current Global
degradation of nearsurface degrading permafrost computations
infrastructure
permafrost thaw by mid-century
(a) and high hazard
(b) in the pan-Arctic
permafrost area (%)
Fire
Multidirectional
relationships
between climate, land
degradation and fire
Bajocco et al. 2011 Fire Area burned 1990–2000 Mediterranean
may be amplified
under future land
use change and
climate scenarios
Increase in charcoal
influx (i.e. biomass
burning) during the
Paleoclimate
Marlon et al. 2016 Fire Biomass burning industrial period Last 22,000 years Global
reconstruction
(probably not related
to climate but human
activities)
Northern Hemisphere
Africa has experienced
a fire decrease
of 1.7 Mha yr–1
(–1.4% yr–1) since
2000, while Southern
Hemisphere Africa
saw an increase
of 2.3 Mha yr–1
(+1.8% yr–1)
during the same
period. Southeast
Trends in land area
Asia witnessed
Giglio et al. 2013 Fire Area burned burnt have varied Recent observations 1995–2011 Regionally varying trends –
a small increase
regionally
of 0.2 Mha yr–1
(+2.5% yr–1) since
1997, while Australia
experienced a
sharp decrease of
about 5.5 Mha yr–1
(–10.7% yr–1) during
2001–11, followed by
an upsurge in 2011
that exceeded the
annual area burned in
the previous 14 years
7SM 7SM
7SM-30 7SM-31Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
A recent analysis
using the Global
Fire Emissions
Database v.4 that
includes small fires
concluded that the
net reduction in land
area burnt globally
during 1998–2015
was –24.3± 8.8%
(–1.35 ± 0.49% yr–1).
However, from the
point of fire emissions
Andela et al. 2017 Fire Area burned Remote sensing 1998–2015 Global decline High in the tropics Global
it is important to
consider the land
cover types which
have experienced
changes in area
burned; in this
instance, most of
the declines have
come from grasslands,
savannas and
other non-forest
land cover types
(Andela et al. 2017)
Significant recent
increases in forest
area burned Moderate (rise in
Abatzoglou and (with higher fuel +100% cumulative forest fire area, CC accounted for 55% of forest fires despite Western and boreal
Fire Forest area burned Detection/attribution 1979–2015
Williams 2016 consumption per unit increase in fuel aridity increasing adaptation north America
area) recorded in measures)
western and boreal
North America
Clear link between
the western Canadian Western and boreal
Ansmann et al. 2018 Fire Forest area burned Aerosols, case study 2017–2017
fires and aerosol north America
loading over Europe
Temperature increase
and precipitation
decline may become
the major driver of Driving forces, A2,
Pechony and Shindell Fire activity (% relative Low under high Global with strong
Fire fire regimes under A1B, B1 scenarios; 800–2100 0–10% 0–10% 5–10% 10–35% 15%
2010 to pre-industrial) warming levels regional variations.
future climates as single GCM
evapotranspiration
increases and soil
moisture decreases
Temperature increase
and precipitation
decline may become
the major driver of
Random forest on
Aldersley et al. 2011 Fire Fire regimes fire regimes under 2000–2000 Global
data sets
future climates as
evapotranspiration
increases and soil
moisture decreases
7SM 7SM
7SM-32 7SM-33Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Temperature increase
and precipitation
decline may become
the major driver of
Fernandes et al. 2017 Fire Fire regimes fire regimes under Logistic regression 1995–2015 Yes, for Indonesia during moderate to wet years Indonesia
future climates as
evapotranspiration
increases and soil
moisture decreases
The risk of wildfires
in future could be
expected to change, North America, South
increasing significantly America, central Asia,
Liu et al. 2010 Fire Probability of fire in North America, KBDI on GCM data 2070–2100 southern Europe,
South America, central southern Africa,
Asia, southern Europe, and Australia
southern Africa,
and Australia
Fire weather season
has already increased
by 18.7% globally
between 1979 and
2013, with statistically
significant increases
across 25.3% but
Fire weather
Jolly et al. 2015 Fire decreases only across Weather analysis 1979–2013 Yes, global plus18.7% Global
season length
10.7% of Earth’s
land surface covered
with vegetation; even
sharper changes
have been observed
during the second half
of this period
Global area
experiencing long
Area experiencing
weather fire season
Jolly et al. 2015 Fire long weather Weather analysis 1979–2013 Yes, global plus108.1% Global
has increased by 3.1%
fire season
per annum or 108.1%
during 1979–2013
Fire frequencies by
2050 are projected
to increase by ~27%
globally, relative to
the 2000 levels, with
changes in future fire
meteorology playing
the most important
Huang et al. 2014 Fire Fire frequencies role in enhancing A1B 2000–2050 19% Global
the future global
wildfires, followed
by land cover changes,
lightning activities
and land use, while
changes in population
density exhibits
the opposite effects
7SM 7SM
7SM-34 7SM-35Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Climate is only one
driver of a complex
set of environmental,
ecological and human
factors in influencing
fire. Interplay leads to
complex projections
of future burnt area SIMFIRE+LPJGUESS
Knorr et al. 2016a Fire Area burned and fire emissions model; RCP4.5/8.5 1971–2100 No change No change No change 5% 10% Global
(Knorr et al. 2016a,b), scenarios
yet human exposure
to wildland fires is
projected to increase
because of population
expansion into areas
already under high risk
of fires
Climate is only one
driver of a complex
set of environmental,
ecological and human
factors in influencing
fire. Interplay leads to
complex projections
of future burnt area SIMFIRE+LPJGUESS
Exposure (number
Knorr et al. 2016a Fire and fire emissions model RCP4.5/8.5 1971–2100 413 497–646 527–716 Global
of people)
(Knorr et al. 2016a,b), scenarios
yet human exposure
to wildland fires is
projected to increase
because of population
expansion into areas
already under high risk
of fires
Climate is only one
driver of a complex
set of environmental,
ecological and human
factors in influencing
fire. Interplay leads to
complex projections
of future burnt area SIMFIRE+LPJGUESS
Greenhouse gas
Knorr et al. 2016b Fire and fire emissions model; 1971–2100 –15% Global
emissions from fire
(Knorr et al. 2016a,b), RCP4.5/8.5 scenarios
yet human exposure
to wildland fires is
projected to increase
because of population
expansion into areas
already under high risk
of fires
7SM 7SM
7SM-36 7SM-37Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
General increase
in area burned and
fire occurrence
but a lot of spatial
variability, with some
areas of no change
or even decreases
in area burned
and occurrence.
Fire seasons are
Area burned, fire lengthening for Review of regional
Flannigan et al. 2009 Fire Review Present to 2100
season length temperate and boreal studies
regions and trend will
continue in a warmer
world. Future trends
of fire severity and
intensity are difficult
to determine owing
to the complex and
non-linear interactions
between weather,
vegetation and people
Anthropogenic
increases in extreme
Multimodel median
Fire Weather Index Global
proportion of burnable Fire Weather Index
days emerge for an (pronounced effects
Abatzoglou et al. 2019 Fire terrestrial surfaces on 17 CMIP5 climate 1861–2099 Yes, on 22% of burnable land 0–3% 15–30% 30–50%
increasingly large in Mediterranean
for which emergence models
fraction of burnable and Amazon)
occurs (%)
land area under higher
global temperatures
Higher large-wildfire
frequency, longer
Wildfire frequency and
Westerling et al. 2006 Fire wildfire durations, Fire reports 1970–2003 Yes, for Western US Western US
duration
and longer wildfire
seasons
Global decline in
recent burned area
(1.28 × 104km2 yr–1),
driven significant
decline in tropics
and extratropics
Yang et al. 2014 Fire Area burned DLEM-Fire 1901–2007 Global
caused by human
factors. warming and
droughts are expected
to increase wildfire
activity towards
the future
Increase in burned
area scales with
warming levels. SM and NSM under
Turco et al. 2018 Fire Area burned 1981–2100 +50–75% +75–175% Mediterranean
Substantial benefits RCP2.6 and RCP8.5
from limiting warming
to well below 2°C
Increase burned area
1975–1995; 2050;
Flannigan et al., 2005 Fire Area burned under enhanced CO2 2xCO2, 3xCO2 +78% +143% Canada
2100
scenarios
7SM 7SM
7SM-38 7SM-39Chapter 7 Supplementary Material Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Risk management and decision-making in relation to sustainable development Chapter 7 Supplementary Material
Region (Including
Direction of Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Impact at Adaptation
Reference Risk Variable (unit) Climate scenario Timeframe Detection and attribution of current impact regional
impact 1 degree 2 degrees 3 degrees 4 degrees 4.5 degrees potential
differences)
Coastal degradation
Substantial global-
Coastal erosion area scale increases 28,000 km2 eroded
Mentaschi et al. 2018 Coastal degradation Remote sensing 1984–2015 No Global
(km2) in coastal erosion globally
in recent decades
Coastal regions are
also characterised
by high population
Increased population
density, particularly
exposure to 1-in-100
Number of people in Asia (Bangladesh,
year storm surge.
exposed to a 1-in-100 China, India,
Strongest changes in
Neumann et al. 2015 Coastal degradation year flood event in Population projections 2000–2060 No 625 879–949 1,053–1,388 Indonesia, Vietnam)
exposure in Egypt and
coastal regions whereas the highest
sub-Saharan countries
million population increase
in Western and
of coastal regions is
Eastern Africa
projected in Africa
(East Africa, Egypt,
and West Africa)
High: most of the
Number of people Increases in DIVA model
Nicholls et al. 2011 Coastal degradation 2000–2100 No 72–187 (0.9–2.4%) threatened population Global
displaced (million) coastal erosion framework
could be protected.
Global (with Southeast
Asia concentrating
Cazenave and Increases in Review, mostly
Coastal degradation 2000–2100 No many locations highly
Cozannet 2014 coastal erosion qualitatively
vulnerable to relative
sea level rise)
Increases in
Rahmstorf 2010 Coastal degradation Commentary 2000–2100 Yes Global
coastal erosion
Meeder and Parkinson Increases in
Coastal degradation Coastal erosion Sedimentary record 1900–2000 Everglades, USA
2018 coastal erosion
Net contraction Land cover
Shearman et al. 2013 Coastal degradation Coastal erosion 1980s-2000s Indirectly –0.28% Asia-Pacific Region
in mangrove area classification
CMIP3 wind speed
CMIP3 evaluation
McInnes et al. 2011 Coastal degradation Coastal erosion exhibit low skill over 1981–2100 Global
wind speed, SRES
land areas
Wave heights
Global (rise in wave
increase in future GCM combined with
height in midlatitudes
Mori et al. 2010 Coastal degradation Coastal erosion climates across a wave model under 1979–2099
and southern ocean,
mid-latitudes and SRES
decrease in tropics)
the Antarctic Ocean
Increases in Stakeholder
Savard et al. 2009 Coastal degradation Coastal erosion 2005–2007 Canada
coastal erosion discussions
Poleward shift in the
genesis latitude and
Tamarin-Brodsky and increased latitudinal Storm tracking
Coastal degradation Tropical cyclones 1980–2099 Midlatitudes
Kaspi 2017 displacement of algorithm to CMIP5
tropical cyclones
under global warming
Increases in wave
height (and period),
increasing the
Simple total water
Ruggiero 2013 Coastal degradation Total water level probability of coastal 1965–2010 U.S. Pacific Northwest
level model
flooding/erosion
more than sea level
rise alone
Nexus of climate
change and increasing Review, mostly
Elliott et al. 2014 Coastal degradation Nexus Global
concentration qualitatively
of people
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