Successful LTE strategies - White paper How to use LTE to build a compelling broadband strategy

Page created by Hugh Doyle
 
CONTINUE READING
Successful LTE strategies - White paper How to use LTE to build a compelling broadband strategy
White paper
Successful LTE strategies

How to use LTE to build a compelling
broadband strategy

                   www.informatandm.com
Contents                                                                                  Successful LTE strategies: How to use
                                                                                              LTE to build a compelling broadband
                                                                                              strategy
    Introduction .................................................3
    Market status ..............................................4                             Paul Lambert, Senior Analyst

         Different LTE operator types ..................5                                     What are the ingredients of a successful LTE launch?
         Aggressive LTE operators......................7
                                                                                              There are already examples of best practice that have helped
         Cautious LTE operators .........................8
                                                                                              to underpin hugely successful LTE launches by operators in
    Market development ...................................9                                   markets such as the US, Japan and South Korea. We have
                                                                                              meticulously researched and analysed the go-to-market strategy
         LTE subscription forecasts .....................9
                                                                                              of these leading operators and every other live LTE deployment
         LTE voice ................................................9                          to build a comprehensive and unrivalled base of knowledge.
    Recommendations .......................................11
                                                                                              Who are the most successful LTE operators to date, and why?
                                                                                              How have they positioned LTE to drive customer uptake? How
                                                                                              are operators effectively positioning LTE? How can operators
                                                                                              maximize the value of their LTE investments? What pricing
                                                                                              and value propositions are working in the market and which
                                                                                              aren’t? How have different operator strategies influenced LTE
                                                                                              subscription uptake?

                                                                                              Our latest LTE report is based on in-depth and extensive
                                                                                              interviews with LTE operators as well as a full assessment of the
                                                                                              launch strategies of all 52 (as at April 24, 2012) live LTE networks
                                                                                              globally. In conjunction with ITM’s industry knowledge, the report
                                                                                              distils the lessons learned to date by LTE operators to arrive
                                                                                              at concrete examples of best practice that have proved to be
                                                                                              successful with end users.

                                                                                              The report provides clear and actionable conclusions of what has
                                                                                              worked for the early LTE launches, ones that are applicable to
                                                                                              all operators looking to launch LTE, and which will help them to
                                                                                              avoid replicating the mis-steps some LTE operators have made
                                                                                              and are making.

    © Informa UK Limited 2012. All rights reserved.
    The contents of this publication are protected by international copyright laws,
    database rights and other intellectual property rights. The owner of these rights
    is Informa UK Limited, our affiliates or other third party licensors. All product and
    company names and logos contained within or appearing on this publication are the
    trade marks, service marks or trading names of their respective owners, including
    Informa UK Limited. This publication may not be:-
        (a) copied or reproduced; or
                                                                                                  This is an extract from Successful LTE
        (b) lent, resold, hired out or otherwise circulated in any way or form without the        Strategies report
        prior permission of Informa UK Limited.
    Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the information and content
    of this publication was correct as at the date of first publication, neither Informa UK
    Limited nor any person engaged or employed by Informa UK Limited accepts any
                                                                                                  To find out more visit:
    liability for any errors, omissions or other inaccuracies.                                    www.informatandm.com/successfulLTE
    Readers should independently verify any facts and figures as no liability can be
    accepted in this regard - readers assume full responsibility and risk accordingly for
    their use of such information and content.                                                    Contact:
    Any views and/or opinions expressed in this publication by individual authors or              Giovanni Cerrini
    contributors are their personal views and/or opinions and do not necessarily reflect
    the views and/or opinions of Informa UK Limited.
                                                                                                  giovanni.cerrini@informa.com
                                                                                                  +44 (20) 701 75296

2         © 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. www.informatandm.com
Introduction
LTE launches are accelerating, but not all operators have the right business model
2G-to-3G migration offered the promise of a whole new business model – from voice and SMS services to the mobile
Internet and rich content. Unlike 2G-to-3G, 3G-to-4G is evolutionary. However, the advantages that 4G/ LTE offers –
much greater capacity to offer DSL-like services on the move, not to mention the prospect of the "Internet of things"
– are likely to turn out to be more revolutionary over time than even the migration from 2G-to-3G. This is because a
combination of 3G and 4G, in tandem with the boom in smartphone adoption and use, will bring about a major leap
in the number of people using mobile broadband, the way they use it, and the amount they use it.

According to the latest survey conducted by Informa Telecoms & Media to gauge the industry’s perceptions on LTE,
the majority see a clear need to launch LTE networks now, with two-thirds of respondents saying the time is right
to launch LTE in their market today. However, while there is broad agreement on the need to launch LTE, there are
diverse opinions on both why operators need to launch LTE now and also the reasons for doing so.

While some operators are looking to LTE primarily to alleviate capacity from stressed legacy networks, others are
looking to add value and increase brand value through technology leadership and enhancing the overall mobile
broadband proposition. And, while some operators are looking to LTE generate additional revenues, it is surprising
that the majority are not expecting LTE to create new revenue streams. This raises a fundamental question: If LTE
doesn’t create new revenue streams, how can operators make a return on their LTE investments?

Our research into the LTE market explores the core business and strategic questions operators need to answer
before launching services:
   • How can operators maximize the value of their LTE investments?
   • How can operators effectively position LTE?
   • What LTE pricing and value propositions are working in the market and which aren’t?

To approach these core issues, we’ve sought to answer these three key questions:
   • Which are the most successful LTE operators to date, and why?
   • How have they positioned LTE to drive customer uptake?
   • How have different operator strategies influenced LTE subscription uptake?

In this White Paper, we’ve approached these topics and questions by drawing on our recently-published research
into the LTE business case. During our research, we found that operators that have launched LTE to date fall into
two groups – those that have been successful in driving uptake of services and those who haven’t. Or, put another
way, some operators have found what is for them a successful LTE business model while others have yet to do so.

It is crucial that operators make a return on their LTE investments and, with the right business model, the evidence
to date shows that they will – such is the appetite among end users, if stimulated in the right way, for faster and
better mobile internet access. I hope that this White Paper provides both a valuable insight into the business models
we have seen to be a solid foundation for profitable LTE strategies, as well as an introduction to our latest research.

                                                               © 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. www.informatandm.com   3
Market status
    “The market push by the few early              Fig. 1: Global, LTE operators, by region and country, Apr-12
    and aggressive LTE launchers                   Country                         Operator                Technology      Start date

    obscures market reality, with the              Asia Pacific
    majority of operators cautious on              Australia                       Telstra                     LTE1800        Sep-11
    subscriber uptake.”
                                                   Hong Kong                       CSL New World          LTE1800/2600       May-11

                                                                                   CSL New World               LTE2600       May-11
    While LTE is the fastest-growing
                                                   India                           Bharti                      LTE2300        Apr-12
    cellular technology in history in terms
    of subscription-number growth, it              Japan                           eAccess                     LTE1800        Mar-12

    is still very much a new technology                                            NTT DoCoMo                  LTE2100        Dec-10
    both in terms of the total number of                                           Softbank Mobile             LTE2500        Feb-12
    subscriptions and also the maturity            South Korea                     KT Corp                    LTE1800         Jan-12
    of the service proposition. With a few
                                                                                   LG U+                          LTE800       Jul-11
    notable exceptions in the US, Japan
                                                                                   SK Telecom                     LTE800       Jul-11
    and South Korea, a combination of
    factors – most notably the lack of a                                           MobileOne              LTE1800/2600        Jun-11

    clear value proposition for LTE, high          Singapore                       SingTel Mobile         LTE1800/2600        Dec-11
    service prices, a limited selection of         Eastern Europe
    LTE smartphones and limited network            Armenia                         K-Telecom                  LTE2600         Dec-11
    coverage – has led to the vast majority
                                                   Belarus                         Yota Bel                   LTE2600         Dec-11
    of operators moving very cautiously
                                                   Estonia                         EMT Estonia            LTE1800/2600        Jan-12
    on LTE subscription uptake. LTE
    has been deployed initially in urban           Hungary                         T-Mobile Hungary           LTE1800         Jan-12

    hotspots, with only three rollouts to          Latvia                          LMT                        LTE1800         Jun-11
    date focused on rural areas first, all in      Lithuania                       Omnitel                    LTE1800        May-11
    Germany and as a result of regulatory          Poland                          Centernet                  LTE1800         Sep-10
    requirements.
                                                                                   Mobyland                   LTE1800         Sep-10

                                                                                   Polkomtel                  LTE1800         Nov-11
    A snapshot of the market at this early
    stage – around 27 months after the             Russia                          Yota                       LTE2600         Dec-11

    first LTE network went live – shows            Western Europe
    that 57 networks have been launched            Austria                         Hutchison 3G Austria       LTE2600         Nov-11
    in 30 countries (see fig. 1).                                                  mobilkom Austria           LTE2600         Oct-10

                                                                                   T-Mobile Austria           LTE2600          Jul-11
    In terms of subscription uptake,
                                                   Denmark                         TDC Mobil                  LTE2600         Oct-11
    there are two clear categories of LTE
    operators: those that have pushed the                                          Telia Denmark              LTE2600         Dec-10

    technology aggressively – the clear            Finland                         DNA Finland                LTE2600         Dec-11
    minority; and those that haven’t. The                                          TeliaSonera Finland        LTE2600         Nov-10
    US operators Verizon Wireless and              Germany                         O2 Germany                 LTE2600          Jul-11
    AT&T, NTT DoCoMo in Japan and
                                                                                   Telekom                    LTE2600         Apr-11
    SKT and LGU+ in South Korea have
                                                                                   Vodafone D2                LTE2600         Dec-10
    all pursued LTE subscription growth
    aggressively.                                  Norway                          Netcom                     LTE2600         Dec-09

                                                   Portugal                        TMN                        LTE2600         Mar-12
    However, the majority of operators                                             Vodafone Portugal          LTE2600         Feb-12
    have seen very weak LTE subscription           Note: Figures refer to quarter-end.
                                                   Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
    growth, for the reasons already

4   © 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. www.informatandm.com
Fig. 1: Global, LTE operators, by region and country, Apr-12 (continued)                                 a significant commitment to the
 Country                        Operator                              Technology            Start date    technology.
 Western Europe (continued)

 Sweden                         HI3G                             LTE800/900/2600               Dec-11     According to the survey, the 2600MHz
                                                                                                          band will continue to dominate LTE
                                Tele2 Sweden                     LTE800/900/2600               Nov-10
                                                                                                          launches, with 1800MHz also set to
                                Telenor Sweden                   LTE800/900/2600               Nov-10
                                                                                                          remain prevalent, although LTE band
                                TeliaSonera Sweden               LTE800/900/2600               Dec-09
                                                                                                          fragmentation is also reflected in the
 North America                                                                                            survey responses, with the majority of
 Canada                         Bell Wireless Affiliates              LTE2100 (IV)             Sep-11     available bands seeing some operator
                                Rogers Wireless                       LTE2100 (IV)              Jul-11    commitment to a greater or lesser
                                Telus Mobility                        LTE2100 (IV)             Feb-12
                                                                                                          degree (see fig. 5).

 US                             AT&T Mobility USA                 LTE700/2100 (IV)             Sep-11
                                                                                                          Different LTE operator types
                                Leap Wireless                    LTE1900/2100 (IV)             Dec-11
                                                                                                          “The aggressive early adopters have
                                Metro PCS                        LTE1900/2100 (IV)             Sep-10     used LTE to reinforce existing market
                                US Cellular                       LTE700/2100 (IV)             Mar-12     positioning, typically to improve
                                Verizon Wireless                  LTE700/2100 (IV)             Dec-10     perceptions about the quality of their
 Latin America                                                                                            networks and the performance they
                                                                                                          offer.”
 Brazil                         Sky Brazil                                LTE2500              Dec-11

 Puerto Rico                    America Movil Puerto Rico                  LTE700              Feb-12
                                                                                                          It’s crucial for operators to adopt
                                AT&T Mobility Puerto Rico         LTE700/2100 (IV)             Nov-11
                                                                                                          the right approach to launching LTE
                                Open Mobile                                LTE700               Apr-12    as soon as possible, given the broad
 Uruguay                        ANCEL                                         LTE              Dec-11     commitment to roll out networks
 Middle East                                                                                              this year and next. This is especially
                                                                                                          the case given that the majority of
 Kuwait                         Viva Kuwait                                   LTE              Jan-13
                                                                                                          operators believe there is a market
 Saudi Arabia                   Saudi Telecom Company                     LTE2300              Sep-11
                                                                                                          for launching LTE now (see fig. 6).
                                SMTC Saudi Arabia                         LTE1800              Sep-11

 UAE                            Etisalat UAE                              LTE2600              Dec-11     What are the key drivers for operators
 Africa                                                                                                   launching LTE now? The majority
 Angola                         Movicel                                   LTE1800               Apr-12    of operators, 35.1%, are looking to
 Note: Figures refer to quarter-end.
                                                                                                          LTE to create new revenue streams,
 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
                                                                                                          according to Informa’s LTE survey.
                                                                                                          However, many operators are also
stated. Even the early running that the                     LTE rollouts to date highlight the            launching LTE to relieve capacity on
Nordic operators made on launching                          problem of spectrum fragmentation             their existing networks, as well as to
LTE hasn’t resulted in meaningful LTE                       between regions and within                    build brand value through technology
subscription uptake (see fig. 2).                           regions between countries. While              leadership (see fig. 7).
                                                            the majority of LTE rollouts are
The number of LTE launches and                              in the 2600MHz band (see fig. 4),             On the one hand, LTE is a new
the LTE subscription numbers are                            North America and Asia Pacific are            technology offering operators
poised to accelerate dramatically.                          deploying LTE in their own bands,             the opportunity to launch new
The responses to Informa Telecoms                           Europe is focused on 800MHz and               broadband services in new ways,
& Media’s 2012 LTE Survey showed                            2600 MHz, with 1800MHz rollouts               potentially generating new revenues;
that the largest proportion of                              to follow. While the vast majority            on the other hand, it is simply an
operators, 34.1%, plan to launch LTE                        of LTE rollouts to date have been             extension to the strategies operators
services this year, and a considerable                      FDD-based, LTE rollouts using TDD             are already pursuing with 3G
number, 25.4%, are planning to                              spectrum have taken place in Poland           technology to drive uptake of their
launch in 2013 (see fig. 3).                                and Saudi Arabia, while China has             data plans.

                                                                                     © 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. www.informatandm.com   5
Fig. 2: Global, LTE subscriptions (000s), by country and operator, 1Q10-1Q12
    Country                 Operator         1Q10      2Q10        3Q10       4Q10       1Q11     2Q11      3Q11       4Q11      1Q12

    Asia Pacific

    Australia               Telstra                                                                                   100.0     248.5

    Hong Kong               CSL New World                                                            0.1       0.8       1.5       2.2

    Japan                   NTT DoCoMo                                             1.2    25.6    121.4     388.6    1,139.4   1,913.2

    South Korea             KT Corp                                                                                             110.0

                            LG U+                                                                           230.0     560.0     895.7

                            SK Telecom                                                                      200.0     700.0    1,119.7

    Singapore               MobileOne                                                                          0.8       0.9       1.1

                            SingTel Mobile                                                                               0.1       0.4

    Eastern Europe

    Armenia                 K-Telecom                                                                                    0.5       0.6

    Belarus                 Yota Bel                                                                                     0.1       0.2

    Estonia                 EMT Estonia                                            0.2     0.3       0.6       0.8       0.8

    Latvia                  LMT                                                                      0.5       1.2       2.0       2.2

    Lithuania               Omnitel                                                                  0.8       1.7       2.6       2.9

    Poland                  Polkomtel                                                                                  10.0      13.0

    Russia                  Yota                                                                                      200.0     275.0

    Western Europe

    Austria                 Hutchison 3G                                                                                 5.0     20.0

                            mobilkom                                               0.2     0.5       0.9       2.0       5.0       6.2

                            T-Mobile                                                                           2.0       6.0       9.2

    Denmark                 TDC Mobil                                                                                    1.0       2.1

                            Telia                                                  0.5     1.3       2.0       4.0       6.0     10.0

    Finland                 DNA                                                                                          1.0       1.3

                            TeliaSonera                                            0.5     1.5       2.5       3.9       4.6       5.1

    Germany                 O2                                                                                 1.1       3.2       5.1

                            Telekom                                                                15.0      26.0      47.0      64.2

                            Vodafone D2                                            0.1     9.0     27.0      52.0      88.0     110.0

    Norway                  Netcom            1.0        1.1            1.5        2.5     3.1       3.7       4.1       4.9       5.2

    Sweden                  Tele2                                                  1.0     1.5       2.3       3.2       5.0     10.0

                            Telenor                                                0.7     1.5       2.1       3.0       7.0     10.0

                            TeliaSonera       0.8        1.0            1.8        2.5     3.5       4.3     10.0      14.0      20.0

    North America

    Canada                  BWA                                                                                2.0     50.0      98.0

                            Rogers                                                                             6.0     20.0      30.8

                            Telus                                                                                                  6.0

    US                      AT&T Mobility                                                                    25.0     747.0    1,469.0

                            Leap Wireless                                                                                1.0       1.9

                            Metro PCS                                  20.0   150.0      285.7    357.1     428.6     500.0     593.5

                            US Cellular                                                                                            2.0

                            Verizon                                            65.0      504.2   1,705.8   3,102.3   5,330.3   8,004.6
    Note: Figures refer to quarter-end.
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

6   © 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. www.informatandm.com
Fig. 2: Global, LTE subscriptions (000s), by country and operator, 1Q10-1Q12 (continued)
 Country                 Operator        1Q10                           2Q10         3Q10               4Q10           1Q11          2Q11           3Q11            4Q11             1Q12

 Latin America

 Puerto Rico             America Movil                                                                                                                                                0.4

                         AT&T Mobility                                                                                                                                  0.6           1.2

 Uruguay                 ANCEL                                                                                                                                          0.6           1.3

 Middle East

 Saudi Arabia            STC                                                                                                                            1.0             5.0           9.0

                         SMTC                                                                                                                           0.5             2.0           3.5

 UAE                     Etisalat                                                                                                                                       3.0           5.5

 Global total                             1.8                            2.1             23.3           224.4          837.6        2,246.0        4,500.6         9,575.1       15,089.8

 Note: Figures refer to quarter-end.
 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

The ways that the early-launchers                    Fig. 3: When are you planning to launch commercial services using LTE?
of LTE are approaching LTE reflects                  (If you have already launched, please state the launch year)
this dichotomy:
                                                                                                                               2009: 0.6%
• Some are positioning LTE in new                                                                         2016+: 4.0%             2010: 4.0%
                                                                                                    2015: 8.1%                          2011: 6.4%
  ways, mainly as a direct substitute
  or replacement for fixed broadband
  services. This is happening in rural                                                   2014: 17.3%
  areas in particular when regulatory
                                                                                                                                                  2012: 34.1%
  requirements have demanded it,
  most notably in Germany.
• The majority are positioning LTE
                                                                                                    2013: 25.4%
  as an extension of their 3G mobile
  broadband proposition, one that                    n=336
                                                     Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
  many, but not all, are charging a
  premium for.
• Operators that are positioning LTE                Fig. 4: Global, LTE launches by technology and band, 1Q12
  as a stand-alone premium mobile
  broadband service are using                                           20

  enhanced speed as the main, if not
                                                 Number of operators*

                                                                        15
  sole, benefit of paying the extra
  monthly charges being made to
                                                                        10
  access the network.
                                                                         5
Aggressive LTE operators
For the two main US mobile                                               0
                                                                               0

                                                                                     00

                                                                                                    )

                                                                                                           00

                                                                                                                   00

                                                                                                                                00

                                                                                                                                        00

                                                                                                                                                   )

                                                                                                                                                              0

                                                                                                                                                                        0

                                                                                                                                                                                 0

operators, Verizon and AT&T, the
                                                                                                (IV

                                                                                                                                                  (IV

                                                                                                                                                              70
                                                                             60

                                                                                                                                                                     60

                                                                                                                                                                                80
                                                                                    18

                                                                                                          21

                                                                                                                  23

                                                                                                                               25

                                                                                                                                      26

                                                                                                                                                           E
                                                                             /2

                                                                                                                                                                   /2

                                                                                                                                                                                 E
                                                                                                0

                                                                                                                                              00
                                                                                     E

                                                                                                         E

                                                                                                                   E

                                                                                                                            E

                                                                                                                                       E

                                                                                                                                                        LT

                                                                                                                                                                              LT
                                                                                            10
                                                                        00

                                                                                                                                                                   00
                                                                                  LT

                                                                                                      LT

                                                                                                                LT

                                                                                                                         LT

                                                                                                                                    LT

decision to move so aggressively
                                                                                                                                             21
                                                                                          /2
                                                                        18

                                                                                                                                                               /9
                                                                                                                                           0/
                                                                                         00

                                                                                                                                                              00
                                                          E

                                                                                                                                        70
                                                       LT

                                                                                    19

                                                                                                                                                          E8

on LTE was, and still is, a function
                                                                                                                                        E
                                                                                     E

                                                                                                                                     LT

                                                                                                                                                        LT
                                                                                  LT

of the particular characteristics
of that market – the early award                    *Where available
                                                    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
of spectrum suitable for LTE
deployments, combined with
stressed legacy networks.                       in December 2010. It was very                                                    from the dwindling CDMA ecosystem
                                                aggressive in terms of both build-out                                            to a global standard while at the
Verizon Wireless was the first                  and subscriber acquisition targets                                               same time ensuring that it made its
operator in the US to launch LTE,               because it needed to transition away                                             network investments in a technology

                                                                                                    © 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. www.informatandm.com                        7
with a stronger future than 1xEV-DO.                                        AT&T, meanwhile, needed to relieve                 country’s nascent LTE market,
    To this end, the operator is trying                                         the much-publicized strain on its                  demonstrating that, once a strong
    to migrate its 1xEV-DO subscribers                                          3G network, which was particularly                 competitor launches LTE, operators
    to its LTE network to minimize                                              acute in key markets such as                       are pressured to respond to remain
    the amount of investment it needs                                           New York City and San Francisco.                   competitive.
    to make on its 1xEV-DO network,                                             Equally as important, AT&T had
    and aims to have LTE coverage                                               to ensure that its main rival didn’t               Japan’s NTT DoCoMo is pushing
    comparable with 3G by mid-2013.                                             create an uncatchable lead in the                  LTE aggressively to capture the
                                                                                                                                   high ground with early adopters
            Fig. 5: Which spectrum bands do you intend to use to deploy LTE? (multiple                                             and enterprise users. Based on the
            choice)                                                                                                                advantages it derived from launching
                           50                                                                                                      3G early, DoCoMo perceives that
                                                                                                                                   there are clear benefits in being first
    Number of operators*

                           40
                                                                                                                                   to market with a new technology
                           30                                                                                                      in its extremely tech-savvy home
                           20                                                                                                      market. DoCoMo had 2 million LTE
                                                                                                                                   users at end-March, surpassing
                           10
                                                                                                                                   its end-March annual target of 1.3
                            0                                                                                                      million, meaning that the service
                                z

                                     z

                                             z

                                                    z

                                                          z

                                                                  z

                                                                       z

                                                                               z

                                                                                    z

                                                                                            z

                                                                                                 z

                                                                                                        S)

                                                                                                                z

                                                                                                                               z

                                                                                                                          ify r
                                                                                                                        ec he

                                                                                                                                   is beginning to move out of the
                                H

                                     H

                                            H

                                                    H

                                                          H

                                                               H

                                                                       H

                                                                            H

                                                                                    H

                                                                                         H

                                                                                                 H

                                                                                                             H

                                                                                                                     H
                                                                                                       W

                                                                                                                             )
                           0M

                                    0M

                                          0M

                                                0M

                                                        0M

                                                              M

                                                                      M

                                                                           M

                                                                                   M

                                                                                        M

                                                                                                M

                                                                                                             M

                                                                                                                    M

                                                                                                                      sp Ot
                                                                                                     (A
                                                             00

                                                                  00

                                                                          00

                                                                               00

                                                                                       00

                                                                                            00

                                                                                                           00

                                                                                                                 00
                           45

                                70

                                     80

                                               85

                                                     90

                                                          14

                                                                  15

                                                                       17

                                                                               18

                                                                                    19

                                                                                         21

                                                                                                        23

                                                                                                                26

                                                                                                                                   early-adopter segment and into the
                                                                                                    z
                                                                                                 H
                                                                                                M

                                                                                                                        e
                                                                                             00

                                                                                                                     as

            n= 336                                                                                                                 broader market.
                                                                                            21

                                                                                                                     le
                                                                                                                 (p

            Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

                                                                                                                                   Cautious LTE operators
            Fig. 6: Do you believe there is a viable business case to launch LTE in your                                           Operators that haven’t been
            market today?                                                                                                          successful in signing up users cite a
                                                                                                                                   combination of three main factors:
                                                        No
                                                     29.2%                                                                         • Although LTE dongles are in the
                                                                                                                                     market, the fact that the fast-
                                                                                                                                     increasing majority of mobile data
                                                                                                Yes
                                                                                                70.8%
                                                                                                                                     usage is via smartphones rather
                                                                                                                                     than dongles has been a lag on
                                                                                                                                     the uptake of services.
                                                                                                                                   • There is a perceived lack of a
            n= 341                                                                                                                   strong need for mobile broadband
            Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
                                                                                                                                     speeds faster than 3G offers, in
                                                                                                                                     tandem with a lack of a clear
            Fig. 7: What is your primary motivation for deploying LTE?                                                               value proposition for LTE that is
                                                                                                                                     distinct from 3G.
                                                     Other (please specify)
                                                                     3.0%                                                          • Operators with robust 3G
                                           To enter mobile data
                                         market for the first time                                                                   networks don’t face capacity
                                                             7.1%                                                                    constraints compelling them
                                                                                                Current networks do not
                                                                                                offer sufficient capacity            to migrate subscribers to LTE
                                                                                                23.8%
                                                                                                                                     quickly.
                            Build brand value through
                                technology leadership
                                                31.0%

                                                                                             Create new revenue
                                                                                             streams based on LTE
                                                                                             35.1%

            n=341
            Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

8    © 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. www.informatandm.com
Market development
“With the ongoing increase in                                       iPhone expected in 3Q12, will have           vary and operators need to decide
the amount of data that existing                                    a significant positive impact on LTE         between a handset and a network-
mobile users consume, as well as                                    subscription uptake in markets where         based solution.
the accelerating penetration of                                     the device works on those networks.
mobile broadband into new user                                                                                   Regional US mobile operator
groups, operators will increasingly                                 LTE subscription forecasts                   MetroPCS was the first operator to
differentiate themselves on the                                     Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts           launch LTE in the US, in 3Q10. It says
quality of their mobile broadband                                   indicate that Asia Pacific will be           it will be the first operator in the
experience.”                                                        the region with the most LTE                 world to offer VoLTE, in 3Q12, with a
                                                                    subscriptions from the end of 2013           device supplied by Samsung in the
Many new LTE networks will be                                       onwards, driven by expected large-           first instance. MetroPCS wants to shift
launched in 2012 in tandem with                                     scale rollouts in China. The global          voice traffic from its CDMA network so
broadly conservative approaches                                     total is forecast to reach 609.1 million     it can re-use that spectrum for LTE,
to positioning and pricing services.                                by the end of 2016. LTE subscriptions        while Verizon Wireless is set to launch
Greater innovation, albeit very                                     will see the highest year-on-year            VoLTE services by the end of this year.
gradual, will be seen in the market in                              growth between 2012 and 2013, as
2013 and beyond. This innovation will                               operators worldwide, in particular in        How operators approach VoLTE
be driven by the availability of a wider                            Europe and Asia Pacific, launch LTE          will be a key factor in determining
range of LTE devices running different                              networks (see fig. 8).                       the value of their service offerings
operating systems (iOS, Android and                                                                              in general and LTE services in
Windows) in conjunction with more                                   LTE voice                                    particular. According to Informa’s
widespread rollouts of LTE networks,                                Although an industry-wide approach           LTE survey, IMS voice will be the
as well as the broad deployment                                     has been agreed for VoLTE, there             main approach to VoLTE (see fig. 9).
and uptake of an industry-standard                                  are no VoLTE-enabled devices in the          However, LTE networks will give rise
approach to voice over LTE (VoLTE).                                 market. Therefore, operators will have       to more competition on voice than at
                                                                    to take a phased approach to LTE             present because consumers will have
Smartphones offering a compelling                                   voice. Most operators have launched          more choice on how they make voice
user experience drove mass-market                                   LTE with circuit-switched fallback           calls. This means that operators will
uptake of 3G subscriptions and                                      (CSFB) for voice before transitioning        have to ensure their voice offerings
LTE will be no different. Again, just                               to VoLTE in the longer term once the         remain competitive in terms of pricing
like the iPhone kick-started mass-                                  core network elements have been              and features as OTT players launch
market mobile broadband use, LTE                                    deployed and a wider range of devices        increasingly innovative and compelling
smartphones, in particular the LTE                                  are available. Approaches to CSFB            offers.

 Fig. 8: Global, LTE subscriptions by region, 2011-2016

                        North America   Latin America     Asia Pacific   Western Europe   Eastern Europe   Middle East    Africa

                        700
                        600
 Subscriptions (mil.)

                        500
                        400
                        300
                        200
                        100
                          0
                           2011                    2012                      2013                   2014                     2015                    2016

 Note: Figures refer to year-end
 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

                                                                                            © 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. www.informatandm.com   9
At the moment, LTE operators are                Fig. 9: What do you think will be the primary solution for voice over LTE?
     continuing to treat voice and data
                                                                               Other (please specify)
     as separate services, but, as voice                                                       3.4%
                                                      Dual radio (e.g., Verizon’s model:
     becomes part of the LTE value                       LTE for data, CDMA for voice)
     proposition, there will be more                                               12.4%

     innovation on bundling voice and
                                                              Circuit-switch fallback
     data into single tariffs. Given that                                    (CSFB)                         IMS-based VoIP
                                                                               11.0%                        (OneVoice/VoLTE)
     many operators already bundle large                                                                    47.9%
     numbers of voice minutes with data                           Operator-managed
     allowances into 3G subscriptions, this                               OTT VoIP
                                                                             13.5%
     strategy is expected to develop in the
     LTE domain, with increasing numbers                                         Unmanaged OTT VoIP
                                                                                (e.g., Skype, Viber, etc)
     of minutes bundled into subscriptions                                                        11.7%
     that cover voice and data access.
                                                     Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

10   © 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. www.informatandm.com
Recommendations
Define the proposition: Is LTE another part of the mobile broadband jigsaw or an
entirely new picture?
Operators need to decide if they are going to position LTE as just another part of the mobile broadband jigsaw or
position the technology as offering significant benefits over 3G. If the latter, then evidence from operators that have
positioned LTE as a new proposition compared with 3G suggests that operators need to rely on more than just
speed to make a success of this strategy. Many operators have yet to articulate the LTE consumer value proposition
effectively, and those that haven’t must work to convey the real value of LTE to customers. Key questions operators
need to address are: Why should consumers sign up to LTE? What difference does speed make to them?

If operators don’t charge a premium for LTE, they can still make a return on
investment by enhancing the overall mobile broadband proposition relative to rivals.
Old principles hold absolutely with the advent of LTE. The operator with the best network and the most
competitively-priced services that offer the best perceived value will still win on ARPU and churn. LTE should be
seen as a way to reinforce this fact rather than as a way to generate “new revenues”.

Build a story out of LTE – don’t just sell a technology at a competitive price
Operators are still positioning LTE as a technology rather than a service that can provide clear value benefits over
3G. They should attempt to clearly communicate the advantages of LTE over 3G in terms of the overall quality
of experience. The entire retail chain should be involved in this, including giving online demos of the benefits of
LTE over 3G in retail stores. Take customers on a journey of continually and incrementally improving the mobile
broadband experience.

Be ready to respond to first movers
Operators need to be prepared for launch so that they are in a position to react quickly if a main rival launches.
However, operators should also resist launching simply because the competition has – the decision must be based
on a sound business case and a thorough examination of the risks of not launching. How much advantage can an
operator gain by waiting to launch while it expands its LTE coverage and hones its service proposition?

Offer a compelling user experience at low price points to drive uptake and further
usage over time
Users will consume more data over LTE if the experience is perceptibly better than 3G and so are more likely to
be prepared to pay to use the service more. Offering an LTE experience with small amounts of data per month
(e.g., sub 1GB) is a sound way to encourage the uptake of the service and, once the customer is signed up, to then
encourage a greater usage of it, rather than expecting customers to jump to significantly higher speeds and data
allowances than they are used to on 3G.

                                                               © 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. www.informatandm.com   11
ABOUT INFORMA TELECOMS & MEDIA
           Informa Telecoms & Media is the leading provider of business intelligence and strategic marketing solutions to
           global telecoms and media markets.
           Driven by constant first-hand contact with the industry, our 65 analysts and researchers produce a range of
           intelligence services including news and analytical products, in-depth market reports and datasets focused on
           technology, strategy and content.

           For more details on Informa Telecoms & Media and how we can help your company identify future
           trends and opportunities, please contact:

           Giovanni Cerrini
           Informa Telecoms & Media
           giovanni.cerrini@informa.com
           +44 (20) 701 75296

           24/7 access to business-critical    Cutting edge information on all fixed   Keeping the world’s leading cellular
           insight, analysis and data          line, cable and broadband markets       organisations better informed
           www.informatandm.com/ic             www.informatandm.com/wbis               www.informatandm.com/wcis

                                                                                                                               connect

           Join us on LinkedIn:                Follow us on Twitter:                   Email us:                              Subscribe to our Connect email
           www.informatm.com/linkedin          www.twitter.com/informatm               marketing.enquiries@informa.com        www.informatm.com/connect

© 2012 Informa UK Ltd. All rights reserved. www.informatandm.com
You can also read