Taking Pride in Feeding the World A look at How the Western Hemisphere Contributes to Global Food Security - Jim Sutter, CEO, U.S. Soybean Export ...
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Taking Pride in Feeding the World
A look at How the Western Hemisphere Contributes to Global
Food Security
Jim Sutter, CEO, U.S. Soybean Export Council
April 23, 2021
U.S. Soybean Farming
• Soy is grown on 30-36 million
hectares of land (87 m ha
total in major crops)
• 97 percent of the 2.1 million
farms in the United States
are family-owned operations
• U.S. soy exports valued at
more than $20 billion
• 55-60% of U.S. soy is
exported annually as whole
beans, meal or oil
SOURCE: U.S. Census of Agriculture, USDA
Western Hemisphere: Engine of World Grain Trade
40.0% 60,000,000.00
35.0%
50,000,000.00
Western Hemisphere Pecent of World Grains Trade
30.0%
40,000,000.00
Thousands of Metric Tons
25.0%
20.0% 30,000,000.00
15.0%
20,000,000.00
10.0%
10,000,000.00
5.0%
0.0% 0.00
Western Hemisphere Total Cereals Exports Western Hemisphere Percent of World Cereals Trade
Technological improvements vital to food security
Source: OECD, Making Better Policies for Food Systems report
Yields have grown in line with population
Global Grain Yields and Population Growth 1988-2020
2
1.8
1.6
Index (MY1988/1989=1)
Corn
1.4
Soybeans
Rice
Wheat
1.2
Population
1
0.8
Source: USDA PSD; UN World Population Prospects
Higher yields have allowed production to soar
Growth in World Grain Production and Population 1988-2020 (1=1988)
4
3.5
3
2.5
Index, 1=1988
Corn
2
Soybeans
Rice
1.5
Wheat
Population
1
0.5
0
Source: USDA PSD; UN World Population Prospects
Enabling lower relative land use
Growth of total Grain yield and area harvested
1.75
1.65
1.55
Index (MY1988/1989=1)
1.45
1.35
1.25
1.15
1.05
0.95
Total Area Harvested Total Yield
The future: a mixed bushel for crop yields…
Growth in Projected Grain Yields and World Population 2021-2029
1.1
1.08
1.06
Index (MY2021/2022=1)
Corn
1.04 Soy
Rice
Wheat
1.02 Population
1
0.98
2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30
Source: USDA International Baseline Projections; UN World Population Prospects…but production is still up
Projected Growth in Production, Grain Crops MY2021-MY2029
1.21
1.16
Index (MY2021/2022=1)
1.11
Corn
Soybeans
Rice
1.06 Wheat
Population
1.01
0.96
2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30
Source: USDA International Baseline Projections; UN World Population ProspectsMany challenges ahead for the future
Projected Yield, Grain Crops, MY2021-2050
1.34
1.29
1.24
Index (MY2021/2022=1)
1.19
1.14
1.09
1.04
0.99
Corn Soybeans Rice Wheat Population
Source: USDA International Baseline Projections; UN World Population ProspectsHow did we get here? Technology and innovation
Source: OECD, Making Better Policies for Food Systems reportModern technology and innovation have improved food security
• Improved farming production practices
– Precision agriculture
• Biotechnology and genetic innovations
• Efficient logistics systems
Source: OECD, Making Better Policies for Food Systems reportHow can we meet the growing demand of the future?
• New technology and production practices:
– Precision agriculture
– New plant breeding innovations
– Decreased food waste
– New land and urban farming
Source: OECD, Making Better Policies for Food Systems reportHow can we meet the growing demand of the future?
Post-harvest Loss of Rice Crops, Select Countries
Source: US NIH, Reducing Postharvest Losses during Storage
of Grain Crops to Strengthen Food Security in Developing
CountriesHow can we meet growing demand of the future?
New cropland will need to come into production
Source: US NIH, Global projections of future cropland
expansion to 2050 and direct impacts on biodiversity and
carbon storageHow can we meet growing demand of the future?
But there are constraints on cropland expansion
Biodiversity Hot Spots
Source: US NIH, Global projections of future cropland
expansion to 2050 and direct impacts on biodiversity and
carbon storageHow can we meet the growing demand of the future? • Shifting demand preferences – Plant based proteins – Aquaculture – Increasing preferences for pork and poultry
Principles for a better future food system
1. Ensure all foods optimize environmental and diet quality
impacts
2. Support food systems inclusive of science, innovation and
technology
3. Support and expand the positive role of rules-based
international trade
Source: OECD, Making Better Policies for Food Systems reportThank you. While the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) does not guarantee the forecasts or statements of USSEC Staff or Contractors, we have taken care in selecting them to represent our organization. We believe they are knowledgeable and their presentations and opinions will provide listeners with detailed information and valuable insights into the U.S. Soy and U.S. Ag Industry. We welcome further questions and always encourage listeners to seek a wide array of opinions before making any financial decisions based on the information presented. Accordingly, USSEC will not accept any liability stemming from the information contained in this presentation.
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