Uranium Report 2019 Everything you need to know about uranium! - Swiss Resource Capital AG

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Uranium Report 2019 Everything you need to know about uranium! - Swiss Resource Capital AG
Uranium Report 2019
 Everything you need to know about uranium!

     www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
Uranium Report 2019 Everything you need to know about uranium! - Swiss Resource Capital AG
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                                 Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz                                                                                                                                      www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
Uranium Report 2019 Everything you need to know about uranium! - Swiss Resource Capital AG
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                                  Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz                                                                                                                                     www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
Uranium Report 2019 Everything you need to know about uranium! - Swiss Resource Capital AG
Table of Contents                                                                         Imprint
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                                                                                                   Table of Contents | Imprint                                              07

                                                                                                   Preface09

                                                                                                   Climate change and the electric revolution make it necessary to rethink
                                                                                                   the power supply. - Nuclear energy is the only base load-capable
                                                                                                   energy source that can manage the balancing act between an
                                                                                                   enormously increasing demand for electricity and clean energy generation! 10

                                                                                                   Interview with Dr. Christian Schärer – Manager of the Uranium
                                                                                                   Resources Fund and partner of Incrementum AG 20

                                                                                                   Interview with Scott Melbye – Executive Vice President of
                                                                                                   Uranium Energy, Commercial V.P. of Uranium Participation Corp.
                                                                                                   and Advisor to the CEO of Kazatomprom                                    24

                                                                                                                                                                                             Editor
                                                                                                                                                                                             Swiss Resource Capital AG
                                                                                                   Company profiles                                                                          Poststr. 1
                                                                                                                                                                                            9100 Herisau, Schweiz
                                                                                                                                                                                             Tel : +41 71 354 8501
                                                                                                   Appia Energy                                                             30              Fax : +41 71 560 4271
                                                                                                                                                                                             info@resource-capital.ch
                                                                                                   Denison Mines                                                            35              www.resource-capital.ch

            Watch Management & Expert Interviews, Site-Visit-Videos,                               Energy Fuels                                                             40              Editorial staff
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    Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz | www.resource-capital.ch                                        www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
Uranium Report 2019 Everything you need to know about uranium! - Swiss Resource Capital AG
Preface

                                                                          Dear Readers,

                                                                          We are now entering the second year of our            resting companies of the industry with facts       Jochen Staiger is founder and
                                                                          uranium report. Uranium is a „hot potato“, but        and figures. This is to be understood as a sug-    CEO of Swiss Resource Capital
                                                                          not many investors have recognized this yet           gestion and not as a buy recommendation sin-       AG, located in Herisau,
                                                                          and have not yet positioned themselves ac-            ce there are only very few listed companies at     Switzerland. As chief-editor and
                                                                          cordingly. However, without energy producti-          all. „There‘s really only one technology that we   founder of the first two resource
                                                                          on from uranium, i.e. nuclear power plants, we        know of that supplies carbon-free power at         IP-TV-channels Commodity-TV
                                                                          will have a huge global problem in the stable         the scale modern civilization requires, and that   and its German counterpart
                                                                          supply of basic energy. The electric revolution,      is nuclear power“ - Ken Caldeira of Stanford       Rohstoff-TV, he reports about
                                                                          above all electromobility, would thus be no-          University‘s Department of Global Ecology.         companies, experts, fund
                                                                          thing more than a beautiful dream. Because                                                               managers and various themes
                                                                          according to popular opinion, electricity co-         Raw materials are the basis of our entire eco-     around the international mining
                                                                          mes from the socket, so no problem. Only              nomic coexistence. Without raw materials the-      business and the correspondent
                                                                          hardly anyone thinks about how the electricity        re are no products, no technical innovations       metals.
                                                                          gets into the socket.                                 and no real economic life. We need a reliable
                                                                                                                                and constant basic energy supply for our
                                                                          Our series of special reports started with lithi-     highly industrialized world.
                                                                          um and silver, but these reports have since
                                                                          evolved into battery metal and precious metal         Swiss Resource Capital AG has set itself the
                                                                          reports. Closely connected to the battery me-         task of providing interested people with com-

                              d R o h s t o f f - T V  get                tals (the main components of lithium-ion bat-         prehensive information on metals, raw materi-

                           an
    Commodity-TV
                                                                          teries, the heart of every electric vehicle) is the   als and various listed mining companies. On

                                                          rves!
                                                                          base load-capable power supply(charge) of             our website www.resource-capital.ch you will

                                re n e s s   it   d e s e                 the batteries, and thus either the combustion         find 20 companies from various raw material

   u r c o m p a n y t h e awa                                            of coal, gas or oil or the use of uranium as a        sectors as well as a lot of information and ar-

yo                                                                        fuel element in nuclear power plants. There
                                                                          are no other base-load-capable energy gene-
                                                                                                                                ticles about raw materials.

                                                                          ration methods as long as no adequately large         With our Special Reports we want to give you
                                                                          storage facilities have been created for electri-     insights and provide you with comprehensive
                                                                          city from renewable energy sources. This re-          information. In addition, you have the oppor-
                                                                          port is intended to give the reader an overview       tunity to always inform yourself through
                                                                          of the uranium industry and the real facts as         our two raw material IPTV channels
                                                                          well as the global energy supply from nuclear         www.Commodity-TV.net & www.Rohstoff-TV.            Tim Roedel is chief-editorial- and
                                                                          power. China in particular needs nuclear pow-         net free of charge. For the mobile everyday        chief-communications-manager
                                                                          er in order not to suffocate, as most of the          life, you can download our newly developed         at SRC AG. He has been active in
                                                                          electricity is still generated by coal-fired power    Commodity-TV App for iPhone and Android            the commodity sector since 2007
                                                                          plants. At the same time, several of the top          onto your smartphone. Here you get real-time       and held several editor- and
                                                                          uranium producers have announced that they            charts, stock quotes, indices and the latest vi-   chief-editor-positions, e.g. at the
                                                                          will artificially reduce their production in or       deos automatically to your mobile phone no         publications Rohstoff-Spiegel,
                                                                          from 2018 in order to bring the uranium spot          matter where you are. My team and I hope you       Rohstoff-Woche, Rohstoffraketen,
                                                                          price back to a level that is essential for the       enjoy reading the Uranium Special Report and       Wahrer Wohlstand and First
                                                                          survival of most companies and to put pressu-         that we can provide you with lots of new infor-    Mover. He owns an enormous
                                                                          re on the energy companies to renegotiate             mation, impressions and ideas. Only those          commodity expertise and a
                                                                          their supply contracts, which are due to expire       who are well informed will be able to win and      wide-spread network within the
                                                                          shortly.                                              preserve their assets in these difficult times.    whole resource sector.

                                                                          In addition, we conducted interviews with ex-         Yours, Jochen Staiger
                                                                          perts Scott Melbye and Dr. Christian Schärer
                                                                          on the uranium markets and future develop-
                                                                          ments. Of course, we also present some inte-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         9

     Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz                                              www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
Uranium Report 2019 Everything you need to know about uranium! - Swiss Resource Capital AG
Climate change and the electric revolution make it
necessary to rethink the power supply. – Nuclear energy is
the only base load-capable energy source that can manage
the balancing act between an enormously increasing
demand for electricity and clean energy generation!

                                   Global energy demand has multiplied since            cilities, or nuclear power, which can provide a     The uranium isotope 235U is fissionable by        Uranium production
                                   the late 1980s. Nuclear power currently covers       great deal of energy in a CO²-neutral manner.       thermal neutrons and is therefore the only
                                   about 11.5% of the world‘s total energy needs.       Some countries have long recognised this            known naturally occurring nuclide, apart from
                                   However, fossil fuels, such as coal and crude        possibility of fast and almost clean energy ge-     the extremely rare plutonium isotope 239Pu,       There are basically two different methods of
                                   oil, are still burned primarily to generate ener-    neration and are now pushing ahead with the         with which nuclear fission chain reactions are    uranium extraction: Conventional conveying
                                   gy. The difference to the situation about 25         construction of new nuclear power plants.           possible. For this reason, it is used as a pri-   and recovery by means of in-situ leaching or
                                   years ago lies in the increasing demand for the                                                          mary energy source in nuclear power plants        in-situ recovery (ISR). The exact extraction
                                   reduction of CO² emissions and the increa-                                                               and nuclear weapons.                              method depends on the properties of the ore
                                   singly noticeable phenomenon of „global war-         Supply gap unavoidable in the                                                                         body, such as depth, shape, ore content, tec-
                                   ming“. Above all, the energy-guzzling industri-      future                                                                                                tonics, type of host rock and other factors.
                                   al nations and the emerging markets will have
                                                                                                                                                      [RN] 5f36d17s2            3
                                   to increase their energy efficiency and improve      Even now, however, only 90% of the world‘s

                                                                                                                                                               U
                                   their carbon footprint in the coming years. The      uranium requirements can be met from produ-                                                           Conventional production
                                   second important point is the electric revoluti-     cing mines. However, the number of nuclear
                                   on that is about to begin, which will not only       reactors is likely to double again in the next 10                                                     Most of the uranium is extracted in under­
                                   allow us to move almost 100% electrically in a       to 20 years. The previous main supplier of ura-                                                       ground mining. The deposits are accessed via
                                   few years‘ time, but will also bring with it a       nium - Russia‘s arsenal of nuclear weapons -                     Melting Point 1406 K                 shafts, tunnels, ramps or spirals. Problems are
                                   huge, additional surge in demand for clean           has virtually ceased to exist. Then where                        Boiling Point 4203 K                 often caused by the ingress of mine water and
                                   energy.                                              would the uranium come from? Existing mines                          URANIUM                          by so-called ventilation (technical measures to
                                   This cannot be achieved by burning coal and          can be expanded and new mines opened, but                                                             supply mines with fresh air). The exact mining
                                   oil, firstly, and secondly, one would lie one‘s      not at the current uranium spot price of appro-                                                       method is chosen according to the characteri-
                                   own pocket with it. The alternatives are rene-       ximately US$27.50 per pound. An enormous                                                              stics of the deposit. Above all, the shape of
                                                                                        supply gap seems unavoidable - at least at the      Occurrences                                       the ore bodies and the distribution of the ura-
                                                                                        current market price. And this is exactly where                                                       nium in them are decisive. In underground mi-
                                                                                        investors should start now - with a strongly ri-    Uranium does not occur dignified in nature,       ning, an ore body can be mined in a targeted
     Base load capacity, what is that?                                                  sing uranium spot price and an inevitable se-       but always in minerals containing oxygen.         manner, resulting in much less overburden
                                                                                        cond uranium (stock) boom.                          There are a total of around 230 uranium mine-     than in open pit mining.
     Base load capacity is the ability of a power plant to continuously and                                                                 rals that can be of local economic importance.    Near-surface or very large ore bodies are pre-
     reliably supply electrical energy. These include nuclear power plants,                                                                 There is a wide range of uranium deposits         ferably mined by open pit mining. This enables
     coal-fired power plants, gas-fired power plants, oil-fired power plants                                                                from magmatic hydrothermal to sedimentary         the use of cost-effective large-scale technolo-
     and steam power plants fired with substitute fuels. Block-type thermal             What‘s uranium?                                     types.                                            gy. Modern open pit mines can be a few met-
     power stations, biomass and biogas power stations can also be base                                                                     The highest uranium grades are achieved in        res to over 1000 metres deep and can reach
     load-capable under certain conditions, but fossil or renewable raw ma-                                                                 unconformity-bound deposits with average          several kilometres in diameter. Open pit mi-
     terials must also be burned for this purpose. The only base-load-ca-               One of only two elements where                      uranium grades of 0.3 to 20 %. These are cur-     ning often produces large amounts of overbur-
     pable electricity generation from renewable energy is from hydroelectric           nuclear fission chain reactions are                 rently also the two largest uranium producers.    den. As in civil engineering, large quantities of
     power plants, but this often requires a major intervention in nature.              possible                                            The Earth‘s largest single uranium resource is    water may have to be pumped for an opencast
     Photovoltaic and wind power plants are not base load-capable due to                                                                    Olympic Dam with a proven uranium content         mine, but ventilation is less of a problem.
     their often strongly fluctuating generation and thus feeding into the grid.        Let‘s get to the element of uranium itself. Ura-    of over 2 million tonnes and an average urani-
                                                                                        nium is named after the planet Uranus and is a      um content of approximately 0.03%.
                                                                                        chemical element with the element symbol U          According to the International Atomic Energy      ISR production
                                                                                        and the atomic number 92. Uranium is a metal        Agency (IAEA), the largest uranium reserves
                                   wable energies, which, however, require an           whose all isotopes are radioactive. Uranium         are in the USA, Niger, Australia, Kazakhstan,     With the ISR method, water and small amounts
                                   enormous amount of time and money and, in            naturally occurring in minerals consists of         Namibia, South Africa, Canada, Brazil, Russia,    of CO2 and oxygen are injected into the
                                   addition, are not nearly capable of base loads       about 99.3 % of the isotope 238U and 0.7 %          Ukraine and Uzbekistan.                           sandstone layers with the aid of injection
                                   without the lack of larger electricity storage fa-   of 235U.                                                                                              wells, uranium is dissolved out and pumped

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                          Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz                                                                                        www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
Uranium Report 2019 Everything you need to know about uranium! - Swiss Resource Capital AG
back to the surface for further processing with    The Current Status of the                           reactors alone have been put into operation
                                               the aid of recovery wells. So the whole pro-       Uranium Market                                      since the beginning of 2018. The expansion of
                                               cess is completely underground. The advanta-                                                           nuclear power in China is therefore enormous
                                               ges of this process are obvious: no large earth    But what about today‘s uranium market?              and is taking place at breathtaking speed! Ne-
                                               movements as in open-pit operation have to         What is certain is that the last 40 years of la-    vertheless, more than two thirds of China‘s
                                               be carried out, no spoil heaps or discharge        cking investments in the procurement struc-         energy consumption is still generated by co-
                                               basins for heavy metals and cyanides are cre-      ture - i.e. in the infrastructure of mines and      al-fired power plants. And although China mi-
                                               ated. Only the wells are visible on the surface,   processing plants - will most likely prove to be    nes its own coal deposits on a large scale, it is
                                               the areas around the wells can continue to be      a stroke of luck for uranium investors in the       one of the largest coal importers in the world
                                               farmed without restrictions. The ISR process       future!                                             alongside India. 30% of the coal mined world-
                                               also makes depots with low grades economi-         Despite the fact that, at the latest since the      wide is imported into these two countries alo-
                                               cally mineable, and the capital costs for mine     Chernobyl catastrophe and even more so after        ne. A certain dependence on these coal im-
                                               development are greatly reduced. In addition,      the events surrounding the nuclear facilities in    ports is obvious. And it is precisely this that the
                                               the entire process must be carried out with a      the Japanese Fukushima Front, the number of         leadership of the People‘s Republic is trying to
                                               minimum of manpower, which also drastically        nuclear facilities worldwide has already rea-       avoid. The obligation to establish climate-fri-
                                               reduces operating costs. According to a study      ched a record level. Just 30 countries current-     endly and clean energy production facilities is
                                               by the World Nuclear Association, 25% of the       ly operate (as of 30 September 2018) 454 re-        becoming almost a minor matter.
                                               uranium mined outside Kazakhstan recently          actors with a total net electrical output of        The state-owned power plant manufacturer
Overview of the reactors currently in          came from ISR mines.                               around 399.3 gigawatts.                             Power Construction Corporation of China (Bei-         rily as a result of rising prosperity - and a cata-   Overview of the reactors currently under
operation in each country                                                                                                                             jing) predicted in autumn 2015 that its country       strophic carbon footprint, China‘s path seems         construction in each country
(Source: www.iaea.org/PRIS)                                                                       The USA is currently the leading nuclear pow-       would rise to become one of the world‘s lar-          logical.                                              (Source: www.iaea.org/PRIS)
                                                                                                  er nation with 98 reactors in operation. Howe-      gest nuclear power users after the Chinese go-
                                                                                                  ver, emerging economies such as China and           vernment plans to build more than 80 new
                                                                                                  India are in particular need of more and more       nuclear reactors in the next 15 years and more        India massively expands civil
                                                                                                  energy and have been focusing for some time         than 230 by 2050. According to information            nuclear program
                                                                                                  now on massively expanding their nuclear po-        from China Power, the new five-year plan for
                                                                                                  wer capacities. So, it is not surprising that 55    the energy industry, scheduled for adoption by        India is following a similar path. The world‘s
                                                                                                  more nuclear reactors are currently under con-      the National People‘s Congress in March 2016,         second most populous state plans to expand
                                                                                                  struction. Planning has already been comple-        envisages a more rapid expansion of nuclear           its nuclear energy capacity by 70 gigawatts. By
                                                                                                  ted for 152 more and 335 more are in the pipe-      capacity than previously: So far, the capacity        contrast, India‘s current total net electrical out-
                                                                                                  line. After almost 20 years of stagnation, there    should rise to 58 gigawatts in the next five ye-      put of around 6.2 gigawatts seems downright
                                                                                                  are signs of a renaissance for the uranium sec-     ars; now more than 90 gigawatts are under dis­        ridiculous.
                                                                                                  tor - especially in China.                          cussion. In the year 2005, only 40 gigawatts          India, however, has overslept its entry into the
                                                                                                                                                      were planned until 2020. By 2030, 110 reactors        nuclear energy market and is now desperately
                                                                                                                                                      should be connected to the grid. In 2016 alone,       looking for exploitable deposits, but is also ha-
                                                                                                                                                      China began building 6 new reactors. A total of       ving to expand its overloaded power grid. A
                                                                                                  The demand situation                                18 nuclear reactors are currently under const-        tenfold increase in nuclear energy capacities
                                                                                                                                                      ruction. In drafts for the energy industry, US$       not only seems sensible, but also urgently
                                                                                                                                                      75 billion are initially earmarked for nuclear ex-    necessary.
                                                                                                  China is only at the beginning of                   pansion by 2020. In a further step, China‘s           India itself has hardly any significant uranium
                                                                                                  the nuclear age                                     nuclear power generation is to be expanded to         deposits. An expansion of its own nuclear
                                                                                                                                                      120 to 160 gigawatts by 2030!                         energy capacities by a factor of ten would at
                                                                                                  While many self-proclaimed experts had alrea-       While in Germany, shortly after the events in         the same time mean a 10% increase in total
                                                                                                  dy predicted the end of the nuclear age, it is      Fukushima, the abolition of electricity generati-     nuclear power generation worldwide.
                                                                                                  still in its infancy in the world‘s most populous   on from nuclear energy was sealed, China has          But where will the additional uranium come
                                                                                                  country. 44 reactors with a total net electrical    decided exactly the opposite and is doing             from? Currently, only a few of India‘s 22 nucle-
                                                                                                  output of 40.6 gigawatts operate the Middle         everything in its power to produce cheap elec-        ar reactors are operating at full capacity. While
                                                                                                  Kingdom, where coal has been used primarily         tricity by means of a chain reaction. In view of      Japan, China, Russia and South Korea in par-
                                                                                                  to generate electricity so far. Of these, 5 new     an ever-increasing demand for energy - prima-         ticular have been able to secure uranium re-

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                                        Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz                                                                                       www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
Uranium Report 2019 Everything you need to know about uranium! - Swiss Resource Capital AG
Overview of the currently running reactors                                                                                                               rising continuously. So the USA has no choice       the plant operators have not yet taken care of
(blue), the currently shut down reactors                                                                                                                 but to increase the number of nuclear reactors      a replacement for these delivery quantities.
(grey), the reactors under construction (green)                                                                                                          in the coming years. Of course, climate-friend-     The forward transactions of the plant opera-
and the permanently shut down reactors                                                                                                                   ly energy is also provided by photovoltaic sys-     tors are therefore strongly declining, and thus
(red). China, India, South Korea, Russia, the                                                                                                            tems, wind farms, hydroelectric power plants        the quantities required are also increasing, for
United Arab Emirates and the USA, in                                                                                                                     or geothermal energy, but these energy pro-         which there is no contractual obligation yet,
particular, are currently working increasingly                                                                                                           ducers can only solve acute energy problems         but which must be contractually secured in
on expanding their reactor fleets.                                                                                                                       to a limited extent because they are very cost-     the future. Uncovered demand is expected to
(Source: www.iaea.org/PRIS)                                                                                                                              ly on the one hand and their performance fluc-      be just under one billion pounds U3O8 over the
                                                                                                                                                         tuates depending on the time of day and we-         next 10 years. At the same time, more than
                                                                                                                                                         ather conditions on the other. What therefore       75% of the reactor requirements to be expec-
                                                                                                                                                         remains as the only climate-friendly energy         ted are not contractually secured until 2025.
                                                                                                                                                         generation option is nuclear power. In view of      With a commodity as little traded as uranium,
                                                                                                                                                         the volume of additional electricity required in    this return to more „normal“ long-term cont-
                                                                                                                                                         the next two to three decades, renewable            racts is likely to put enormous pressure on
                                                                                                                                                         energies can only serve as an admixture to the      both long-term and spot prices. As a result,
                                                                                                                                                         overall energy mix.                                 international plant operators are now increa-
                                                                                                                                                         It is precisely for this reason that the Clean      singly seeing signs of increased buying activi-
                                                                                                                                                         Energy Act of 2009, a programme to provide          ty, which is very encouraging.
                                                                                                                                                         carbon-free energy, has already created a law
                                                  sources worldwide in recent years, India has        Increasing global expansion of                     to increase and promote energy generation
                                                  completely missed this opportunity. Only            nuclear energy                                     using nuclear power. Both U.S. government           Summary
                                                  recently have several purchase agreements                                                              parties have drawn up an $18.5 billion plan to
                                                  been concluded with companies from the              In addition to the 30 nations that already have    double nuclear capacity by 2030. In early           The fact is that there are currently 454 reactors
                                                  USA, Canada, Namibia, Kazakhstan, Russia,           nuclear reactors on the grid, another 17 states    2010, President Obama announced that the            on the grid and at least 335 more will be added
                                                  Great Britain and South Korea.                      are planning to install nuclear power plants.      U.S. government will add $36 billion to the         by 2030. 55 plants are already under construc-
                                                  There are currently 7 nuclear reactors under        These include Egypt, the United Arab Emirates      2011 federal budget for state guarantees to         tion, a further 150 are in the concrete planning
                                                  construction in India, with another 40 to follow    (four reactors under construction), Jordan, Tur-   build a new generation of nuclear reactors.         phase. Even if half of the old reactors were to
                                                  by 2050.                                            key and Indonesia.                                 This meant a threefold increase in the budget       be taken off the grid by then, between 550 and
                                                                                                                                                         originally planned.                                 600 reactors would be active by 2030.
                                                                                                                                                         In recent years, an application has been made       Furthermore, about 90% of all long-term sup-
                                                  Russia and Brazil with increasing                   Energy collapse threatens the USA                  for more than 60 US nuclear reactors to ex-         ply contracts between uranium producers and
                                                  nuclear capacity                                    in particular                                      tend their operating life to 60 years. In additi-   energy generating companies expire by the           Overview of the age of the currently running
                                                                                                                                                         on, there are 40 applications for the construc-     end of 2020, which is likely to bring the estab-    reactors. Many will (have to) be replaced by
                                                  Russia and Brazil have also announced massi-        The USA occupies a special position. With 98       tion of new nuclear power plants to be              lished nuclear power nations such as the USA           more powerful ones in the coming years.
                                                  ve expansion of their nuclear power plants.         reactors, these have by far the largest nuclear    connected to the grid by 2025. So far, howe-        into trouble.                                                      (Source: www.iaea.org/PRIS)
                                                  Russia currently operates 37 nuclear reactors       power plant fleet in the world. Nevertheless,      ver, only 2 plants are under construction, a
                                                  with about 28.3 gigawatts. 6 plants are in the      the USA is threatened with a collapse in its       further 14 are in the concrete planning phase.
                                                  construction phase. In addition, Russia plans       energy supply. The United States is still the
                                                  to build 47 more nuclear power plants, which        country with the highest per capita consump-
                                                  will increase the share of nuclear energy in the    tion of electricity in the world. And the Ameri-   Long-term supply contracts expire
                                                  Russian energy mix from currently 16% to over       cans‘ hunger for energy is growing. Moreover,      shortly
                                                  20%. In a further step, Russia wants to increa-     the USA is still faced with the question of how
                                                  se this quota again to 25%.                         to achieve the CO² reductions agreed in Kyoto      The previous cycle of contracts, dominated by
                                                  Brazil currently operates only one nuclear po-      and Paris. Many of the coal-fired power plants     the peak uranium prices in 2007 and 2010,
                                                  wer plant with two reactors. A third reactor is     still dating from the 1950s and 1960s operate      has led plant operators to enter into contracts
                                                  under construction and should be connected          inefficiently and uneconomically. They need to     with higher price levels and very long terms of
                                                  to the grid in 2019. Another 4 reactors are to be   be taken off the grid sooner rather than later.    around 8 to 10 years. On the one hand, these
                                                  built by 2030.                                      Electricity consumption, on the other hand, is     old contracts expire, but on the other hand,

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                                           Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz                                                                                     www.resource-capital.ch | info@resource-capital.ch
Uranium Report 2019 Everything you need to know about uranium! - Swiss Resource Capital AG
The supply situation                               the ground. After the end of the Cold War, dis­      January 2018. The Rabbit Lake mine has also         will rise to 140,000 tonnes of uranium in 2030
                                                               armed nuclear weapons became the most im-            been closed, both of which are among the ten        as a result of the construction of new nuclear
                                                               portant source of uranium for the US. This led       largest uranium mines in the world.                 power plants.
            Established producers are running                  to a decline in American uranium production
            out of air                                         from 23,400 to just over 1,000 tons of uranium
                                                               per year. As a direct consequence, most of the       Supply gap inevitable                               Summary
            The established uranium producing nations          infrastructure and approved production facili-
            Australia, Canada, Russia and Niger have pro-      ties were simply closed or completely dis-           Despite the massive expansion of production         The supply side is currently undergoing uphea-
            blems further expanding their production. All      mantled. Currently, there are only a few mines       in Kazakhstan in recent years, there will be a      val in the uranium sector. Secondary supply
            four countries together produced just under        left in Texas, Arizona and Wyoming.                  large supply gap in the uranium sector in the       from Russia‘s disarmed nuclear stocks is be-
            26,835 tonnes of uranium in 2016. In 2009, it                                                           foreseeable future. Such a thing already exists     coming less and less important. Whereas in
            was 28,000 tons of uranium. Australia is facing                                                         de facto. However, it has always been possible      2006 37% of demand was covered by disar-
            recurring problems at BHP Billiton‘s Olympic       Kazakhstan – the new uranium                         to compensate for this with uranium-capable         med nuclear weapons, the figure is now just
            Dam Mine, by far the most productive uranium       superpower                                           material from atomic scrap. But the nuclear         9%. At the same time, however, the number of
            mine in the country. In Canada, the start of                                                            power industry already consumes about 10%           nuclear reactors will rise sharply. The establis-
            production at Cameco‘s McArthur River Mine         While almost all established uranium pro-            more uranium than is currently being pro-           hed uranium producers will not be able to
            had to be postponed umpteen times, as large        ducers have difficulties rebuilding or expan-        duced. At the current level of 454 nuclear reac-    completely cover this equally volatile increase
            quantities of groundwater penetrated again         ding their uranium production, one region has        tors worldwide, consumption is around 70,000        in demand - at least not at the current uranium
            and again. In Niger, mine openings that were       now moved past all other countries to the top        tons of uranium, of which only around 60,000        spot price of US$ 27 per pound of U3O8. So
            also planned had to be postponed.                  of uranium production: Central Asia. Kazakh­         tons are covered by global uranium producti-        where will the more uranium we need in the            Important events around the uranium market
                                                               stan, in particular, has been able to multiply its   on. The International Atomic Energy Agency          future come from?                                                            of the last 15 years.
                                                               uranium production there in the last ten years.      (IAEA) estimates that global uranium demand                                                                            (Source: Laramide Resources)
            US uranium production down to                      Uranium production in the former Soviet Re-
            earth                                              public increased from 1,870 tonnes in 2000 to
                                                               over 24,500 tonnes in 2016. In 2009, Kazakh-
            The situation in the USA is even more threa-       stan also overtook Canada, the previous lea-
            tening. Although the Obama administration          der, and is now responsible for almost 40% of
            decided in 2010 on a US$54 billion program to      the world‘s uranium production.
            promote the nuclear power industry, it is far
            from clear where the uranium needed to ope-
            rate the reactors will come from. The uranium      Massive production cuts have
            industry in the USA is only a shadow of days       already been initiated
            gone by. Over the last 40 years, virtually no-
            thing has been invested in the development of      But although Kazakhstan is one of the nations
            new deposits and nearly 95% of the uranium         that can currently mine uranium at the lowest
            required has been extracted from disarma-          cost, the country is no longer prepared to
            ment programmes. US nuclear reactors alrea-        squander its uranium reserves at the lowest
            dy consume about 18,000 tons of uranium            possible prices. In early 2017, the state-owned
            annually. Accordingly, an increase in capacity     Kazatomprom Group announced that it would
            would entail an increase in the quantity of ura-   cut its uranium production by at least 20% in
            nium required. The World Nuclear Association       2017. In May 2018 Kazatomprom announced
            (WNA) expects that in 2025, in the USA alone,      further production cuts. That would remove           1. Early 2000s: Major mine disruptions        6. Dec. 2017: Kazatomprom cuts supply by      9. July 2018: New uranium investment fund
            about 40,000 tons of uranium will be needed        about 2,500 tons of uranium from the market.            following U3O8 price at all-time low          20%.                                           Yellow Cake launches IPO.
            annually. Even at the heydays of US uranium        But Kazatomprom is not the only uranium pro-         2. Mid to late 2000s: Utility Contracting     7. May 2018: Kazakh announcement of           10. Ongoing in 2018: Reactor restarts are
            production in the 1960s and 1970s, it would        ducer who is betting on production cuts in           3. March 2011: Fukushima                         possible future cuts.                          continuing in Japan.
            not have been possible to produce such a           view of the ridiculous price of uranium. Urani-      4. Late 2016-2017: Kazatomprom cuts           8. Ongoing: U.S. government continues to
            quantity from one‘s own facilities. U.S. urani-    um major Cameco also announced correspon-            5. Nov. 2017: Cameco announces production        announce further support for nuclear
            um production peaked in 1980, when some            ding production cuts and closed its McArthur            suspension for Jan. 2018, removing            power industry in United States.
            29,000 tons of uranium were extracted from         River mine and Key Lake facilities indefinitely in      1.2Mlbs per month

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Uranium Report 2019 Everything you need to know about uranium! - Swiss Resource Capital AG
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