Voice Over Wi-Fi An Economic View - Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco May ...

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Voice Over Wi-Fi An Economic View - Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco May ...
Voice Over Wi-Fi
      An Economic View

Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research
Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco
May 24, 2016
                                                   C97-734235-00 © 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   1
Voice Over Wi-Fi An Economic View - Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco May ...
OPEX – BIGGEST ISSUES TO RESOLVE
                                       48 Service Providers - Cost and Profit

               75%

               65%                              OpEx/Rev

               15%                              Profit/Rev

                0%

                     2009                                                      2015
RAY MOTA   Transforma)on is required                                                  www.acgcc.com
Voice Over Wi-Fi An Economic View - Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco May ...
SP ARPU – CAGR FLAT - NEGATIVE
                                         Service Provider - ARPU
                   $45
              Fixed Data

              Fixed Voice

             Mobile Voice

             Mobile Data

                    $0                                                    APPU

                            2009                                   2015

RAY MOTA   Focus on Average Profit Per User                                       www.acgcc.com
Voice Over Wi-Fi An Economic View - Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco May ...
INDUSTRY PERCEPTION

                “2016 is the year VoWiFi moves from a nice to
                            have to a requirement”

RAY MOTA   Subscribers are ready                                www.acgcc.com
Voice Over Wi-Fi An Economic View - Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco May ...
WHAT IS IT?

                                 You don’t lose minutes

                                 Seamless user experience (messaging & phone)

                                 Same number – Same mobile service

                                 Works across LTE and WiFi

RAY MOTA   What is VoWiFi                                             www.acgcc.com
Voice Over Wi-Fi An Economic View - Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco May ...
PURE ECONOMICS – IT’S REAL & NOW

  Growth in Smartphone                                                             Solves spectrum indoor coverage problem

  Most already in WiFi Range                                                       Solves spending on spectrum capacity cycl

       Many WiFi Calling Devices                                                       VoWiFi Operators
      iPhone 5S, iPhone 5C, iPhone6, iPhone 6                                  UK – EE
      Plus, Samsung Galaxy S5, Samsung                                         ! Vodafone will soon and O2 and Three
      Galaxy S6, Samsung Galaxy S6 Edge,                                          offer service through apps
      Microso] Lumia 640 etc.
                                                                               US – T-Mobile and Sprint
      There are also apps that emulate this
      service especially for Android (Sprint, O2                               Due to offer VoLTE and VoWiFi this year
      and Three do that)
                                                                               VoWiFi trials all over the world

RAY MOTA          Many get poor indoor coverage – it’s not about control – it’s about quality                     www.acgcc.com
Voice Over Wi-Fi An Economic View - Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco May ...
Potential Impact of VoWi-Fi on Spectrum
                                           Spending
                                                                                                                                      EsDmated Impact of VoWiFi
                                                               Total                 Total                                          Average Annual            Average Annual
                         Total                             Amount paid            Spectrum                                          Spectrum saved               Financial
             AucDon     Amount             Reserve         as a mulDple            Capacity           Price per MHz                  With VoWi-Fi                Benefit*
 Country
              Year      paid by             Price           of Reserve            AucDoned                                            PenetraDon              (Secondary market
                                                                                                                                   (1% Year 1 & 15% Year 5)    resale or delayed
                        bidders                               Price**               (MHz)                                                                           spend)

USA         2015      $ 41 Billion      $ 11 Billion      3.7x @ 273%          65 MHz                $635 Million                         14 MHz               $445 Million
UK          2013      $ 3.7 Billion     $ 2.0 Billion 1.8x @ 81%               250 MHz               $15 Million                          9 MHz                 $7 Million
Germany     2015      $ 5.7 Billion     $ 1.7 Billion 3.4x @ 235%              270 MHz               $21 Million                          18 MHz                $19 Million
Korea       2013      $ 2.2 Billion     $ 1.3 Billion 1.7x @ 69%               90 MHz                $25 Million                          4 MHz                 $5 Million
India       2015      $17 Billion       $ 10 Billion      1.7x @ 69%           401 MHz               $42 Million                          11 MHz                $23 Million

        5% of the consump0on are done outdoors                                                     $100 Billion Spent on RAN
        95% of the consump0on are done indoors                                           $1 Billion Spent on WiFi & Small Cell
                         **Increased traffic on wireless networks increases the demand for the spectrum
                         * A projected 5 year average that assumes prices stay flat from last auc)on at a 20 year amor)za)on rate
Voice Over Wi-Fi An Economic View - Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco May ...
GOOGLE Fi PROJECT
                                               SUPPORTS
                     What is            Project Fi is able to seamlessly transi)on your calls from Wi-Fi to
                                            cell networks without ever dropping your conversa)on.
                      it?

How Google does it?
Plan starts with the Fi Basics for $20 per month. This includes:

•   Unlimited domes)c talk and text
•   Unlimited interna)onal texts
•   Low-cost interna)onal calls
•   Wi-Fi tethering
•   Coverage in 120+ countries

Then it's $10 per GB for data. $10 for 1GB, $20 for 2GB, $30 for 3GB
and so on. That's it. With no annual contract required.
Pay for what you use.

RAY MOTA       Google genng into market – Wait and see will increase CHURN !!!                                www.acgcc.com
Voice Over Wi-Fi An Economic View - Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco May ...
Same Core for VoWiFi & VoLTE

                                                             SGW
                               Cellular
                                                                               IMS

                                       iFi                       ePDG   PGW
                            Untrusted W

  SmartPhone
                                  Trusted WiFi
                                                                 TWAG         Internet

RAY MOTA       When macro network is ready – add VoLTE support                www.acgcc.com
Voice Over Wi-Fi An Economic View - Ray Mota, CEO and Principal Analyst, ACG Research Peter Curtin, Universal Wi-Fi Solution Manager, Cisco May ...
DAY IN THE LIFE OF MOBILE CUSTOMER

                  Home                       Work                   Hotspot                   Outdoor

                         MSO                        MSO Mgd Srv               MSO Mgd Srv               MSO Guest
           Residential   Customer
                                          Work      Customer        Hotel     Customer      Community

                                                    MSO Guest                 MSO Guest                 Operator 1
                         MSO Guest
           Community
                                        Community                 Community                  VoWiFi     Customer

                                                    Operator 1                Operator 1                Operator 2
                         Operator 1
                                         VoWiFi     Customer       VoWiFi     Customer
                                                                                              Small
                                                                                                        Customer
             VoWiFi      Customer                                                              Cell

                                                    Operator 2                Operator 2
                                          Small
                                           Cell
                                                    Customer        Small
                                                                     Cell
                                                                              Customer

RAY MOTA                   QOE will be a cri)cal success factor                                                  www.acgcc.com
SAME ASSETS – DRIVING MORE REVENUE

                                 Operator 2
                               VoWiFi/Offload
                 Small Cells                    Managed Services
                  Operator 1              Consumer

                   EXPAND FOOTPRINT – LEVERAGE MANAGED SERVICES ASSET

                                           MSO REVENUE
                                   OPERATOR PROFITS

RAY MOTA        Win win scenario                                        www.acgcc.com
Mobile Network Evolution: Voice to Internet

1981   1992         2001   2011                                                           2020
 Outdoor Coverage                                                     Indoor Coverage
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Wi-Fi Network Evolution: Internet to IoT

 802.11      802.11b   802.11g/a    802.11n                   802.11ac                                        802.11ac
 2Mbps       11Mbps     54Mbps     600Mbps                    3.6Gbps                                          Wave 2
                                                                                                               7Gbps
 1997         1999       2002       2007                             2012                                       2015

 Indoor Coverage                                                                  Outdoor Coverage
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95% of Data Consumption Occurs Indoors

 Home    52%*      Work   33%*             Hotspot           10%*                            On the Go                                5%*

    While Current Spend is Outdoors
    2015 Indoor Wi-Fi/Small Cell spend $1B
    2015 Outdoor RAN spend $100B**
                             Source: *Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020; * *ACG Research
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Impact of Wi-Fi

                                                                                                                                      Data Usage Growth
(Billions) per Year
 Minutes of Use

                                                                                                              100
                      10,000

                                                                                         Exabytes per Month
                                                                               VoWi-Fi                        90
                                                                                                              80
                       8,000
                                                                                                              70
                                                                                                              60
                       6,000
                                                                                                              50

                       4,000                                                                                  40
                                                                                                              30
                       2,000                                                   VoLTE                          20
                                                                                                              10
                              0                                                                                0
                                                                                                                    2014           2015             2016              2017             2018                2019
                                     2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
                                                     VoWiFi (15.7% , 52.9%)*                                                              Mobile Data                      Wi-Fi Data

                      *refers to 2015 and 2020 % minutes of use

                 Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020

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Wi-Fi Suppliers and Consumers
             Wi-Fi Suppliers                         Wi-Fi Consumers
                Large Cable Operators                                Cellular Operators
               Small Tier 2-5 Operators                                    MVNOs
  Who?       Boutique Operators (Boingo)

         •   Want to monetize their existing     •   Need additional voice and data
             Wi-Fi Assets                            coverage
         •   Want to differentiate their         •   Need simple Wi-Fi Authentication
  Why?       offerings (may also want to add     •   Concerned about Wi-Fi QoE
             voice)

         •   Upgrade Wi-Fi network to meet       •   Build Wi-Fi capacity
             SLAs                                •   Acquire or Partner with existing Wi-
  How?   •   Expand Coverage Footprint               Fi Operator
         •   Add new Wi-Fi Services (location)   •   Complement with Small Cell

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Usage and QoE Vary by Location
           Low
       Untrusted            Trusted               QoE
                                                  Trusted                Small Cell                                    Low
                                                                                                                         Macro
                          (Build Wi-Fi)        (Partner Wi-Fi)
   • Benefits            • Benefits            Mobile Core
                                             • Benefits             • Benefits                                    • Benefits
       • Lowest Cost        • Moderate           • ConsumpDon          • Moderate                                   • Widely
       • Speed of               cost                 based cost            deployment                                   deployed
           deployment       • QoE Control        • Speed of                cost                    3G/LTE           • Supports all
       • MulD Carrier       • Transparent        Trusted
                                                     deployment        • Cellular SLAs                                  phones
   • Challenges                 user              Wi-Fi
                                                 • QoE SLA             • Support all                                • Cellular SLA’s
                Untrusted
       • QoE /Lack of           onboarding       • Transparent             phone types                          • Challenges
           Radio            • Managed                user              • Solves indoor                              • High Cost to
                  Wi-Fi
           Resource             Services             onboarding            coverage                                     solve indoor
           Management           Revenue      • Challenges          • Challenges                                         coverage
       • User           • Challenges      Build or
                                                 • No Managed                       Small
                                                                       • Capacity-Need                              • Capacity-May
                                                        Partner                                                          RAN
           onboarding       • Need VoWi-FiAcquire    Services              spectrum  Cell                               need new
       • Need VoWi-Fi           phone                Revenue           • MulD carrier                                   Spectrum
           phone                                 • Need VoWi-Fi
                                                     phone
            Home 52%                Work 33%              Hotspot 10%                               On the Go 5%

                                                             2019: 95% of Data ConsumpDon(3G/LTE/Wi-Fi) is Indoors (Source: Cisco VNI)
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It’s All About Economics and QoE
                              Macro
                              Voice $.011/min                                                             Home                    52%*
                              Data $1.64/GB
                              Small Cell
                              Voice $.01/min
                              Data $1.16
                                                                                                           Work                   33%*
                               Managed Wi-Fi
                               Voice $.0034/min
                               Data $0.23/GB

                              Home Wi-Fi
                              Voice $.001/min                                                            Hotspot                  10%*
                              Data $0.11/GB

                                                                                                       On the Go                   5%*

                    Source: *Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020; * *ACG Research
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A Day in the Life of Your Customer
  No QoENo QoE           QoE                       Mixed
                                                      QoEQoE                                                                        QoE

    Other               Wi-Fi
                                                Wi-Fi                   Small                                    Macro Network
 Wi-Fi Home/            Home
                                           Office/Hotspot                Cell                                       Indoors
  Hotspot

       Present Access              Other Wi-Fi   Wi-Fi   Wi-Fi Office/
                                  Home/Hotspot   Home     Hotspot      Small Cell                Macro                     Total
          Scenario
       (No Wi-Fi QoE)     Voice      4%          0%         1%           1%                      94%                    100%
                          Data       N/A         0%         1%           1%                      98%                    100%

       Desired Access              Other Wi-Fi   Wi-Fi   Wi-Fi Office/
         Scenario                 Home/Hotspot   Home     Hotspot      Small Cell                Macro                     Total

        (Wi-Fi QoE)       Voice      4%          10%       15%           5%                      66%                    100%
                          Data       N/A         16%       15%           5%                      64%                    100%
     Voice increases from 6% to 34% and Data increases from 2% to 36% with
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Business Outcome Impact

                                     APPU

      Financials improve using Cisco’s Mobility Access Solution
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What Problems Are We Solving?
      Home Consumer                                         Service & Operations                  Mobile

•         Improve Wi-Fi                                      Onboard Millions of   Seamless Mobility
          Quality                                                  Subs               and Coverage
•         Reduce Opex on                                      High Availability    Intelligent Network
          support calls
                                                           Common Core Elements           Offload

                                                                   Evolved                    VoWi-Fi &
                      Wi-Fi SON
                                                                 Packet Core                  Small Cells

                          QoE                                     Scale            Performance
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Why Cisco?
                    Scale & Performance                               Quality of Experience
      1. Supports Millions of Session & Tunnel               1. Voice & Data Readiness: E2E Jitter &
         scale to address Wi-Fi subscriber growth               Latency analysis to Optimize & Prioritize.
      2. Provides High Availability at Product &             2. Bearer creation, deletion visibility at
         end to end Solution level                              SaMOG, ePDG & SDN API at WLC

          RF                                                             AAA
        Insights
                               Wi-Fi SON Framework                      Receiver

                                                                                                                                                   IMS APN
Managed Wi-Fi Access           Wi-Fi Core           Small Cell       Cellular Core
                                                                    ASR 5500
                                                                                                                                             Enterprise APN
    RG         AP            WLC      ASR 5500
                                      (SaMOG)         SC             ePDG/
                                                                     Hetnet
                                                                                        EPC

       Wi-Fi Access                                                                                                                            Internet APN
      (Home, Office,
Indoor / Outdoor Hotspots)                                                     C97-734235-00 © 2015
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Trusted Wi-Fi Use Case: Wi-Fi SLA
“Sprint last year inked a Wi-Fi
offload deal with Boingo that
calls for Sprint's Android and
iOS smartphone customers to
automatically switch to Boingo
hotspots in roughly three dozen
major U.S. airports. Peterson
said that Boingo had to increase
the density of its Wi-Fi networks
in order to ensure that Sprint
customers making Wi-Fi calls
while strolling through an airport
would remain connected.”
                   Fierce Wireless
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What is Needed to Meet QoE?
                  Before

                   After

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VoWi-Fi Key Assessment Parameters
  Requirement           Parameter              Min.              Max.                                               NOTES

   Call capacity    VoWi-Fi bandwidth          5%                25%                                   Use AP Planner to
   (concurrent)           (BW)                                                                          estimate # calls
   Call quality         Packet loss            N/A                1%                                     Connection stats

                      Cell-edge RSSI         -74dBm             -62dBm*                             Passive site-survey**

 Network capacity      Channel BW            40MHz*             80MHz                                    Set in RRM/DCA
                         [5GHz]
                    Channel utilization        N/A         50% > VoWi-FI BW                                        CU stats
                      (CU) [5GHz]
                        Interference           90%                N/A                                       CleanAir stats
                    (AirQuality) [5GHz]

        * For High-density (HD) designs (30+ active users/AP)
        ** Virtual (3D) or physical
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VoWi-Fi 5GHz Benefits
  • High voice quality needs low packet-loss & jitter
     • Both tend to be low IF the interference is Wi-Fi-based (Carrier-Sense-
       Multiple-Access or CSMA) since voice takes precedence over data
     • Non-Wi-Fi interference (e.g. 2.4GHz BlueTooth) does NOT use CSMA
       and thus causes higher loss & jitter
     • AirQuality (AQ) is measure of non-Wi-Fi interference and in 5GHz
       channels AQ can be high (90+%)

  • 2.4GHz channel reuse is HIGH (N=3)
     • High co-channel-interference (CCI) -> unwanted CU

  • 5GHz channel reuse can be LOW (N=6,12,24,…)
     • Low CCI " Low unwanted CU " more voice & data capacity
     • Lower channel BW (40Mhz) significantly reduces CCI
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Other Considerations for VoWi-Fi
  • Network QoS features
     • Packet Inspection and prioritization
     • WMM support on device and APs
  • Optimized Roaming
     • RSSI Issues
     • VoLTE Handoffs
  • APs
     • Capacity under load
     • Radio Flexibility and control
  • Small Cell Deployment
     • AP/Small Cell Integration
  • Switch Capacity (Wave 2 capable?)
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Conclusions

  • Get voice and data off macro network inside buildings
  • Voice and data offload are key to maintain profitability
  • Trusted Wi-Fi is necessary to ensure QoE for Hotspots
  • Wi-Fi SON is necessary to ensure QoE in the Home
  • Acquisition or Partnering with Wi-Fi Operators may be
    the quickest way to broaden coverage and reduce cost

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Thank You

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