Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 - GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE
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ZIMBABWE
Zimbabwe Revised
Nationally Determined
Contribution
2021
GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE
ZIMBABWE
Zimbabwe Revised
Nationally Determined
Contribution
2021
GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE
Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 i
Foreword
Climate change has been widely recognized as a major
global issue that threatens to alter the natural environment,
disrupt the well-being of society, and deter socio-economic
development, making climate change mitigation and
adaptation interventions imperative to reduce any further
deterioration in the climate system.
In 2015, Parties to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came together
and adopted the Paris Agreement which aims to transform
Parties’ developmental trajectories and set the world on
a course towards sustainable development. The Paris
Agreement recognizes that to significantly reduce the risks
and impacts of climate change, all Parties need to reduce
their greenhouse gas emission levels with the aim of holding
global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above
pre-industrial levels whilst pursuing efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial
levels.
To achieve the temperature goal, the Paris Agreement requires Parties to communicate their own
greenhouse gas emissions reduction commitments through the Nationally Determined Contributions
(NDCs) every five years with each submission reflecting increased ambition from the previous one.
Zimbabwe submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in 2015 which became
the country’s first NDC in 2017 when the country ratified the Paris Agreement. In line with the Paris
Agreement to revise the NDCs every five years, Zimbabwe presents its revised Nationally Determined
Contribution (NDC) which represents a fair and ambitious 7% increase in emission reduction from 33%
in the first NDC to 40% in this revised NDC. Unlike the first NDC which covered only the Energy Sector,
this NDC makes progress towards an economy-wide NDC as it includes the Waste, Industrial Processes
and Product Use and; the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use Sectors. In addition, the revised NDC
presents adaptation action in response to the country’s high vulnerability to climate change impacts.
The crafting of Zimbabwe’s revised NDC was informed by the National Development Strategy 1 (2021-
2025) which seeks to transform Zimbabwe into an upper-middle income economy by 2030. In this regard,
Zimbabwe will pursue a holistic and balanced development trajectory, which seeks to balance national
development, fulfilment of our multilateral international obligations, and sustainable development.
While the country has integrated most of the actions identified in this revised NDC in its development
policies and strategies, the Government of Zimbabwe calls upon potential partners and stakeholders
to come on board to support the implementation of this revised NDC for the country to meet its
developmental aspirations and climate change mitigation obligations.
……………………............….........………
Hon. N.M Ndhlovu (M.P)
Minister of Environment, Climate, Tourism and Hospitality Industry
ii Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021
Acknowledgments Zimbabwe’s Revised NDC Report was developed under the auspices of the NDC Partnership’s Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP) with technical and financial support from the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), ICLEI Africa Local Governments for Sustainability), International Labour Organization (ILO), International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and World Bank. The Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) would like to thank these organisations for their support in delivering Zimbabwe’s revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). GOZ also acknowledges the contributions of focal points in the relevant Ministries, Departments and Agencies, Development Partners, Private Sector, Local Authorities, Civil Society, Research and Academia who contributed to the successful delivery of this revised NDC. Preparation of the NDC was done under the expert guidance and leadership of Washington Zhakata (Director of the Climate Change Management Department); Kudzai Ndidzano (Deputy Director); Lawrence Mashungu (Mitigation Expert); Tirivanhu Muhwati (Compliance Officer) and Emily Matingo (Adaptation Expert) at the Ministry of Environment, Climate, Tourism and Hospitality Industry (MECTHI). The main contributing authors are Ryan Hogarth, Richard Smithers, James Harries, Clémence Moinier (Ricardo Energy & Environment), Dingane Sithole, Sekai Ngarize, Leonard Unganai, Caroline Tagwireyi, Farai Mapanda and Samantha Magosha (independent consultants). In particular, the team would like to express its gratitude to Tafadzwa Dhlakama, the NDC Partnership Coordinator; Gibson Guvheya, Nkulumo Zinyengere and Enos Esikuri (World Bank) for the technical guidance, facilitation and coordination of the preparation of this report. Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 iii
Table of contents
Table of Contents.......................................................................................................... iv
List of Figures .............................................................................................................v
List of Tables ........................................................................................................... vi
Glossary .......................................................................................................... vii
1 Table Summarising Changes from the INDC...............................................1
2 Introduction......................................................................................................... 3
2.1 National Context & Vision......................................................................................................4
2.2 Structure of the Revised NDC Report..............................................................................5
3 Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation......................................6
3.1 Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation......................................................... 6
3.2 Climate impacts..........................................................................................................................7
3.3 Projected Climate Change in Zimbabwe.......................................................................12
3.4 Adaptation measures.............................................................................................................14
4 Mitigation priorities and actions................................................................. 18
4.1 The current status in terms of total GHG emissions..............................................19
4.2 The updated GHG mitigation contribution.................................................................20
4.3 Fairness and ambition...........................................................................................................22
4.4 Conditionality............................................................................................................................22
4.5 Co-benefits of identified mitigation measures..........................................................22
4.6 Sector level mitigation actions..........................................................................................23
4.6.1 Energy sector.....................................................................................................................23
4.6.2 Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU)...................................................25
4.6.3 Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU).......................................26
4.6.4 Waste.................................................................................................................................... 27
5 Package of policies and strategies............................................................. 28
6 Institutional and Financial Framework.................................................... 30
6.1 Institutional Framework.......................................................................................................30
6.2 Financing Framework............................................................................................................32
7 Information for Clarity, Transparency & Understanding (ICTU)....... 35
iv Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021
List of Figures Figure 1: Spatial distribution of Zimbabwe average temperature increase for the periods of 2020-2040 (panel 1), 2041-2060 (panel 2) and 2061-2080 (panel 3) under RCP 8.5.......................................................................13 Figure 2: Spatial distribution of Zimbabwe mean annual Climate Research Unit (CRU) rainfall for the periods of 2020-2040 (panel 1), 2041-2060 (panel 2) and 2061-2080 (panel 3) under RCP 8.5....................................................14 Figure 3: Total GHG emissions in Zimbabwe between 2010 and 2017 (MtCO2e).........19 Figure 4: Total GHG emission projections from 2010 to 2030 for the baseline scenario......................................................................................................................20 Figure 5: Total GHG emission projections from 2010 to 2030 in the updated mitigation scenario..............................................................................................20 Figure 6: Estimated reduction in per capita emissions.............................................................21 Figure 7: Population and GDP projections.......................................................................................21 Figure 8: Public and private sources of finance for implementation of the NDC.........32 Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 v
List of Tables
Table 1: Existing and potential climate impacts in Zimbabwe
summarised by type of capital.............................................................................................8
Table 2: Priority adaptation measures.............................................................................................15
Table 3: Coverage of sectors and GHGs in the Revised NDC................................................19
Table 4: Sectoral reductions in GHGs in 2030 compared to a baseline scenario.......21
Table 5: Summary of mitigation measures from the energy sector.................................24
Table 6: Summary of mitigation measures from the IPPU sector.....................................25
Table 7: Summary of mitigation measures in the AFOLU sector.......................................26
Table 8: Summary of mitigation measures from the waste sector.................................. 27
Table 9: Key institutes for NDC implementation........................................................................31
vi Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021Glossary Abbreviation Definition AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use AR5 Fifth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change BAU Business As Usual BUR Biennial Update Report °C Degrees Celsius CAEP Climate Action Enhancement Package CCMD Climate Change Management Department CFF Climate Finance Facility CO Carbon monoxide CO2eq Carbon dioxide equivalent COP Conference of the Parties COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CORDEX Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FOLU Forestry and Other Land Use GACMO Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Model GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas ICLEI International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives ICTU Information for Clarity, Transparency and Understanding IDBZ Infrastructure Development Bank of Zimbabwe INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPU Industrial Processes and Product Use IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency LEAP Low Emissions Analysis Platform LEDS Low Emissions Development Strategy LULUCF Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry MAC Marginal Abatement Cost MECTHI Ministry of Environment, Climate, Tourism and Hospitality Industry MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies MRV Measurement, Reporting and Verification NAP National Adaptation Plan NCCF National Climate Change Fund Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 vii
Abbreviation Definition
NCCRS National Climate Change Response Strategy
NDC Nationally Determined Contribution
NDCSF NDC Support Facility
NDS1 National Development Strategy 1
NIE National Implementing Entity
NMVOCs Non-methane volatile organic compounds
NPV Net Present Value
SDR Social Discount Rate
R&D Research and Development
RCP Representative greenhouse gas Concentration Pathway
REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation
SAPP Southern Africa Power Pool
SDG Sustainable Development Goal
SLCPs Short-lived Climate Pollutants
SEI Stockholm Environment Institute
tCO2e Tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
US$ United States Dollar
VOC Volatile Organic Compounds
ZIMREF Zimbabwe Reconstruction Fund
viii Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 20211 Table Summarising Changes from the INDC
Parameter 2015 INDC 2021 Revised NDC
Adaptation INDC adaptation measures focused Adaptation measures are now being
on the agriculture sector. planned across the economy and will be
formalised in the forthcoming National
Adaptation Plan that is expected to be
completed by December 31st 2021.
IPCC sectors Energy Sector emissions only Expanded to include additional sectors
covered in for Energy; Industrial Processes and
mitigation analysis Product Use (IPPU); Waste; and
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land
Use (AFOLU).
Greenhouse gases Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane Expanded to include CO2, CH4, N2O and
(GHG) covered (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons. Black Carbon (a
short-lived climate pollutant), and co-
emitted air pollutants (PM2.5, NOx,
SO2, non-methane volatile organic
compounds (NMVOCs), carbon monoxide
(CO) were also included in the analysis.
Business-as-usual The INDC BAU baseline focused Updated to include all IPCC sectors.
(BAU) scenario solely on per capita energy National total emissions in the base data
emissions. Zimbabwean per capita period ranged between 25.24 MtCO2e
energy emissions were projected in 2011 and 41.66 MtCO2eq in 2015.
to be 1.06 tCO2eq in 2020, 2.57 Emissions in 2017 were 35.84 MtCO2eq.
tCO2eq in 2025 and 3.31 tCO2eq in National total emissions per capita in
2030 under business as usual. the base data period ranged between
2.03 tCO2eq in 2011 and 2.98 tCO2eq in
2015. Emissions per capita in 2017 were
2.45 tCO2eq. The NDC revision process
incorporated impacts of COVID-19 on
emissions trends and macroeconomic
parameters, including GDP, which fed
into the updated baseline.
Emission The INDC emission reduction The updated target is a 40% reduction
reduction target target was a 33% reduction in in economy-wide GHG emissions per
energy-related emissions per capita compared to BAU by 2030,
capita compared to BAU by 2030, conditional on international support. In
conditional on international the mitigation scenario, economy-wide
support. In the mitigation scenario, emissions per capita are projected to be
energy-related emissions per capita 2.3 tCO2eq in 2030.
were projected to be 2.21 tCO2eq in
2030.
Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 1Climate policies Key climate policies already in place Additional climate policies have been
and Strategies when the INDC was submitted adopted since 2015, including the
included the National Climate National Climate Policy, Low Emission
Change Response Strategy Development Strategy, National
(NCCRS). Adaptation Plan Roadmap, Third National
Communication to the UNFCCC, the
2017 System Development Plan, the
Renewable Energy Policy, Biofuels Policy,
Revised National Gender Policy and
Implementation Plan, National Water
Resources Master Plan, (draft) National
Agriculture Policy Framework, Climate-
Smart Agricultural Investment Plan,
National Industrial Development Policy
and Environmental Management Act.
2 Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 20212 Introduction
Zimbabwe is Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and
its 2015 Paris Agreement. Article Two of the Paris Agreement seeks to enhance implementation of the
Convention by:
• Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to
limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would
significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;
• Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate
resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten
food production; and
• Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and
climate-resilient development.
The Paris Agreement established a series of five-year cycles to increase ambition through Parties’
submission of updated NDCs. Through these updates, Parties should aim to achieve peaking of
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as soon as possible (recognising that peaking will take longer for
developing countries) and to achieve net zero GHG emissions by the second half of the century. The
five-yearly updates of countries’ NDCs should increase ambition, expand sectoral scope and accelerate
implementation of climate actions.
Zimbabwe submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC in
September 2015. In 2017, the INDC became Zimbabwe’s first-generation Nationally Determined
Contribution (NDC), after the country ratified the Paris Agreement. The INDC was focused on specific
sectors. It defined priority actions to build resilience to climate change in agriculture and mitigate energy-
related GHG emissions, as well as finance and investment requirements for both climate pillars. The INDC
emission reduction target was a 33% reduction in energy emissions per capita relative to a 2030 baseline.
This document presents Zimbabwe’s Revised NDC including an updated per capita emission reduction
target that applies to all sectors of the economy, relative to a 2030 baseline. The updated emissions
reduction target raises ambition beyond what was pledged in Zimbabwe’s INDC as presented in the
headline box below. This Revised NDC represents a fair enhancement of ambition and expands sectoral
scope relative to the INDC in light of Zimbabwe’s national circumstances and respective capabilities.
Headline messages of Zimbabwe’s Revised NDC
• A list of economy-wide adaptation measures is included based on a national climate vulnerability
and risk assessment.
• Zimbabwe’s revised NDC target is a 40% per capita emissions reduction across all sectors of the
economy below the projected business as usual scenario by 2030 (relative to the 2017 emission
baseline).
• The emissions baseline and expanded list of mitigation measures now cover all Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sectors namely Energy; Industrial Processes and Product Use
(IPPU); Waste; and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU).
• The NDC revision process incorporated impacts of COVID-19 on emissions trends and
macroeconomic parameters, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
• Compliance with the Revised NDC remains fully conditional on affordable international financial
support, investment, technology development and transfer and capacity development.
Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 32.1 National Context & Vision
Zimbabwe’s updated NDC takes into account its low GHG emissions per capita and substantial
vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.
Zimbabwe is a small net emitter by global standards, responsible for 0.07%1 (2.5 tonnes CO2eq emissions
per capita; BUR1 2017) of global emissions. In comparison, the G20 are responsible for 78% of emissions.2
On the other hand, Zimbabwe is among the World’s 50 most vulnerable countries according to the ND-
GAIN Index.3 Hence, Zimbabwe’s revised NDC and wider climate policy focuses as much on adaptation as
it does on mitigation.
Zimbabwe’s economy is highly reliant on agriculture which, along with forestry, employs 70% of the
population (directly or indirectly). Agricultural production is largely rainfed and sensitive to fluctuating
weather patterns. Increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones,
droughts, mid-season dry spells, floods and localised heavy downpours are also having a negative impact
on other sectors of the economy. Sectors affected directly and indirectly include energy, infrastructure
and industry, due to the many interconnections between different sectors’ climate vulnerabilities.
In addition, Zimbabwe’s position as a landlocked country at the heart of Southern Africa makes it highly
vulnerable to direct or indirect climate-related impacts on neighbouring countries, and more generally
elsewhere, that may lead to transboundary or “spill-over” effects. These may be related to:
• Trade of agricultural commodities, as manifested in global food prices through integrated supply
and distribution chains;
• Trade of non-agricultural commodities, e.g., raw materials supply, manufacturing industries;
• Infrastructure and transport, e.g., energy supply, energy infrastructure and regional transportation
networks;
• Migration and displacement of people, e.g., through changing tourism flows and mass migration
(either forced or voluntary); and
• Spread of diseases and invasive species.
Zimbabwe’s Vision 2030 seeks to transform Zimbabwe to an upper middle-income economy by 2030,
with a per capita Gross National Income of over US$5 000 in real terms. The National Development
Strategy (NDS1), 2021-2025, supports Vision 2030, targeting an annual GDP growth rate of above 5% and
the creation of at least 760,000 formal jobs over the five-year period. NDS1 aims to increase agriculture
production, especially by smallholder farmers, which will increase Zimbabwe’s prosperity, food security
and resilience against climate change. NDS1 also aims to increase electricity and coal supply to resurgent
iron and steel sectors, both of which will lead to an upward trajectory in emissions under a business-as-
usual (BAU) scenario.
Since submitting the INDC, Zimbabwe has adopted several policies and strategies to reduce emissions
and address climate vulnerabilities. Zimbabwe’s 2017 National Climate Policy aims to build a climate-
resilient and low-carbon economy. In 2021, Zimbabwe developed a Low Emission Development Strategy
(LEDS), which includes mitigation measures across all the sectors of the economy. In 2020 Zimbabwe
1
Global GHG emissions including land-use change in 2017 were 53.5 GtCO2eq (United Nations Environment Programme,
Emissions Gap Report, 2018.), Zimbabwe total GHG emissions in 2017 of 35.84 MtCO2eq taken from LEAP modelling.
2
United Nations Environment Programme (2020). Emissions Gap Report 2020.
3
Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) (2021). NG-GAIN Country Index. Available at: https://gain.nd.edu/our-
work/country-index/
4 Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021launched the Climate-Smart Agricultural Investment Plan (CASAIP) which modelled future climate change impacts (rainfall, temperature) on crop yields, livestock incomes and diseases. The CASAIP recommends technology packages and investments to crime-proof agriculture in different agro-ecological regions. In 2017, Zimbabwe adopted a revised National Gender Policy that includes a specific thematic area on gender and climate change and promotes the mainstreaming of gender in environmental and climate change policies and strategies. In 2022, Zimbabwe expects to launch a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) that will seek to mainstream climate change into national and sub-national planning processes in relevant economic and social development sectors. Each of the policies and strategies mentioned above fed into the NDC revision process and will be key components to its implementation. These and other policies or planning frameworks are discussed further in Section 5. Zimbabwe used a whole of government and whole of society approach to update the NDC, ensuring that the process was a collaborative and inclusive one. Validation workshops drawing on the participation of a wide range of stakeholders were held for the endorsement of all technical work products used to inform the NDC update. As Zimbabwe looks ahead to the continuation of implementation of the NDC, further stakeholder engagement is envisaged, ensuring that vulnerable groups, including those representing women and youth, as well as sub-national entities are accorded the opportunity to feed into the process. 2.2 Structure of the Revised NDC Report This Revised NDC Report is structured as follows. Section 1 summarises the changes between Zimbabwe’s INDC and this revised NDC. Section 2 introduces the document and presents the national context of Zimbabwe and the international context of Zimbabwe’s contribution. Section 3 outlines Zimbabwe’s vulnerability to climate change and key areas for adaptation. Section 4 presents the approach to mitigation analysis and Zimbabwe’s updated total and per capita national GHG emission baseline and target. It then details the mitigation priorities and actions across the Energy, IPPU, AFOLU and Waste sectors. Section 5 presents the package of policies and legislation that will underpin implementation of the NDC, and Section 6 outlines the institutional and financial framework. Section 7 concludes with a table summarising the Information for Clarity, Transparency and Understanding (ICTU). Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 5
3 Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation
Outputs from the National Adaptation Planning (NAP)4 process were considered in the development of all
adaptation-related elements of the NDC to reflect the progress of the NAP process and thereby facilitate
the coherence of the two documents. The NDC also accounts for other government policies and technical
guidance documents on vulnerability and adaptation in Zimbabwe.
3.1 Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation
Zimbabwe’s climate vulnerabilities identified here, as a function of climate sensitivities and adaptive
capacities,5 have been determined from review of the country’s relevant national studies. Zimbabwe’s
sustainable development is constrained by climate sensitivities and associated lack of adaptive capacities
of its human, physical, natural, social and financial capital in relation to the direct and indirect impacts of
“slow-onset” climate changes and extreme weather events. Zimbabwe’s landlocked position at the heart
of Southern Africa means that it is not only highly vulnerable to climate impacts within its borders but also
to spill-over effects from the impacts of climate change on neighbouring countries and internationally.
Common factors that determine the climate vulnerability (i.e., high climate sensitivities and low adaptive
capacities) of Zimbabwe across sectors include, in no particular order:
• Insufficient water availability due to a predominantly dry climate, compounded by growing
competition for water resources increases all sectors’ vulnerability to the potential impact of
water shortages on production levels.
• Poverty, which limits access to socio-economic services and to social and financial capital that
may otherwise help populations adapt to the impact of climate change.
• Heavy reliance on rainfed agriculture and natural resources. Approximately 70% of the
population is reliant on agriculture with the majority dependant on rainfed activities, which are
particularly sensitive to climate variability.
• High population growth, which places pressures on public services (health, infrastructure,
transport) and on natural resources, subsequently affecting all sectors that rely on them (energy,
agriculture, tourism, water, etc).
• Gender issues and intersectionality. Women represent most of the agricultural workforce
and are particularly vulnerable, as they have limited access to markets and to education, which
restricts their ability to diversify their income in the event that their primary source of income is
affected. Intersectionality of gender, disability, poverty and child-headed households compounds
climate change vulnerabilities and is of importance in relation to the principle of “leaving no one
behind”.6
• Weak and/or inadequate early warning systems, which prevent key sectors from anticipating
extreme events and, hence, leaves them vulnerable to adverse impacts. Disaster risk reduction
is also not fully mainstreamed in development planning and investments in climate proofing
infrastructure are limited.
4
Government of Zimbabwe (2019). National Adaptation Plan Roadmap for Zimbabwe.
5
IPCC (2018). Annex I: Glossary [Matthews, J.B.R. (ed.)]. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts
of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context
of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate
poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan,
R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield
(eds.)]. In Press. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/glossary/
6
METHI (2021) The National Gender Action Plan; METHI (2021) Gender Analysis of NDCs
6 Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021• The low level of awareness and understanding about climate change, its likely impacts and
possible adaptation solutions, including in relation to sustainable management of resources.
In the documents informing the development of the NAP, the following sectors are rated as highly
vulnerable: agriculture; water; health; forestry and biodiversity; infrastructure; human settlements;
and tourism. Other studies rate additional sectors in Zimbabwe as vulnerable: energy, waste, mining,
transport, and industry.7
Climate vulnerabilities are further amplified by sectors’ interconnectedness. For example, the agriculture
sector’s vulnerabilities are compounded by vulnerabilities in the transport sector, as agricultural products
need to be transported along the value chains. Such interconnections exist between all sectors. For this
reason, Zimbabwe is adopting an economy-wide approach to adaptation that seeks to address climate
vulnerabilities across all sectors.
3.2 Climate impacts
Existing studies consider the climate impacts that Zimbabwe currently experiences. These studies have
been reviewed, and their content is summarised below.
All sectors of the economy have suffered direct impacts as a result of their exposure to hazards resulting
from climate variability and change. Climate impacts are not confined to specific sectors due to the
interconnections between vulnerabilities. Slow-onset climate changes and extreme weather events
impact environmental, societal and economic assets upon which all sectors depend. Hence, existing
climate impacts in Zimbabwe are summarised in Table 1 by type of capital (human, physical, natural,
social, and financial) exposed to climate hazards rather than by sector.8
In addition to the direct impacts of climate change, Zimbabwe is expected to suffer from indirect impacts
caused by spill-over effects from direct climate impacts in neighbouring countries and internationally.
The Transnational Climate Impacts Index9 rates Zimbabwe’s overall exposure to transnational impacts of
climate change as 8 out of 10. Most notably, spill-over effects may arise from:
• Transboundary water dependency. All of Zimbabwe’s River basins are shared with other
countries, both as sources and recipients of headwaters for major rivers. The management of
water resources in those countries and heightened competition over shared water resources may
impact on water availability and supply; energy availability and supply; transboundary biodiversity
conservation; tourism and green jobs.
• Remittance flows from emigrant workers from Zimbabwe. In 2019, personal remittances
received in Zimbabwe accounted for 8% of its total GDP.10 Direct impacts in the host country
of the migrant worker (e.g., South Africa) may lead to economic disruptions for those receiving
remittances and the macro-economy.
7
ICLEI (2021) Zimbabwe Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Report; World Bank (2020) Climate Risk Country Profile -
Zimbabwe
8
“The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and resources,
infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected” (IPCC, 2018).
Full IPCC AR5 Glossary available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/glossary/
9
Stockholm Environment Institute (2016). Introducing the Transnational Climate Impacts Index: Indicators of country-level
exposure – methodology report. Working Paper 2016-07. Available at: https://cdn.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/
introducing-the-transnational-climate-impacts-index-indicators-of-country-level-exposure-methodology-report.pdf
10
World Bank staff estimates based on IMF balance of payments data, and World Bank and OECD GDP estimates.
Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 7• Importance of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI). Zimbabwe’s net inflows of FDI made up 3% of
its GDP in 2018.11 However, assets may lose value and returns on investment may be disrupted or
reduced either suddenly or gradually due to climate change, resulting in lower investments over
time.
• Immigration from climate-vulnerable countries. Zimbabwe currently hosts 9,000 refugees.
Though its net migration rate is negative (there is more emigration than immigration), the number
of refugees has doubled since 2010 which may be a consequence of slow onset migration due to
ecosystem degradation or major environmental events.12 Climate impacts in other countries may
lead to an increase in push-factors to emigrate to Zimbabwe.
• Dependency on imported cereals. Zimbabwe has a negative trade balance for food products.
Being dependent on food imports from abroad, Zimbabwe is exposed to climate-related
disruptions in the availability, price or quality of food products.
Table 1: Existing and potential climate impacts in Zimbabwe summarised by type of capital
Human capital
All citizens are exposed directly or indirectly to climate-related hazards that
impact them and their assets. Among citizens, marginalised groups are more
exposed as their geographical location is determined by lower costs of living.
Exposure
These groups include women, youths and children, people who are physically
handicapped, indigenous peoples, migrants and internally displaced and
inhabitants of unfavourable agro-ecological regions.
Climate impacts on human capital affect citizens’ health, safety and sources of
livelihood.
Flooding and drought events increase the spread of water-borne diseases. A
recent study (2018) identified that between 1990 and 2010, a cholera outbreak
was registered in one of every three droughts and one of every 15 floods13. In May
2009, 98,592 cases and 4,288 cholera deaths were reported, with 60 of the 62
districts in the country affected. This affects employees’ health and safety, and
Impacts cause reductions in productivity across sectors (including agriculture, mining,
energy, industry and commerce, tourism, and transport). In turn, reductions in
productivity will lead to lower incomes and loss of livelihoods.
Impacts on health from heat-stress are also increasing, as a result of extreme
temperatures, which may be particularly harmful to children and the elderly,
partly because of their physiological predisposition and limited ability to manage
their heat risk.
11
International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and Balance of Payments databases, World Bank,
International Debt Statistics, and World Bank and OECD GDP estimates.
12
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and UNRWA through UNHCR’s Refugee Data Finder at unhcr.
org/refugee-statistics.
13
Rieckmann, A., Tamason, C. C., Gurley, E. S., Rod, N. H., Jensen, P. K. M. Exploring Droughts and Floods and their Association
with Cholera Outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Register-Based Ecological Study from 1990 to 2010. Am. J. Trop. Med.
Hyg., 98(5), 2018, pp.1269-1274.
8 Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021Slow-onset changes in climate also cause reductions in water supply. In May
2020, the Bulawayo City Council implemented a weekly 144-hours water-
shedding programme following an acute shortage of water, when the Lower
Ncema Dam was decommissioned after the water level reached an all-time low
of 6.7% following an extended drought. Zimbabwe is estimated to experience a
decline of 38% in national water availability per capita by 2050 due to climate
change14. This threatens agricultural production, with 70% of the population
standing to lose their main source of livelihood.
In addition to agriculture, climate impacts also threaten other sectors’ activities.
Degradation of natural resources reduces the number of tourists, leading to
losses of income by about 7.3% of the formally employed in this sector. Extreme
weather events and heavy rains affects mining during the rainy season, which
affects an estimated 500,000 to 1.5 million artisanal and small-scale miners
in the country who rely on mining as a source of income. The 2020/21 la Nina
rainy season significantly slowed-down the artisanal mining sector, leading to
reduced gold deliveries and foreign currency earnings, and translating into large
macroeconomic impacts. Environmental stress functions as an aggravating
factor which adds to systemic, economic, and demographic factors that shape
individual access to livelihoods, access to resources and vulnerability and,
ultimately, affect their capacity to move.
Physical capital
Sectors rely on a large array of physical infrastructure and assets, such as water
storage (>10,000 small, medium and large dams) and reticulation investments,
energy generation and distribution infrastructure, mining infrastructure, transport
(about 18,601 km state (2012 estimate) and 9,499 km gravel road network) and
telecommunications infrastructure, manufacturing and distribution facilities,
and tourism facilities.
Exposure
Among the key assets most exposed to hazards include: dams, sewer lines,
roads/bridges, powerlines, buildings, telecommunication facilities, mine shafts,
recreation facilities, manufacturing plants, irrigation infrastructure (as of 2017,
Zimbabwe’s land area under irrigation totalled 110,832 ha15) and post-harvest
crop storage facilities.
Following extreme weather events, assets can suffer physical damages that
limit or prevent their functioning. For example, tropical Cyclone Idai and the
resultant flooding and landslides in March 2019 destroyed bridges, roads,
telecommunications infrastructure, agricultural land, crops/livestock and several
buildings/houses with 270,000 people in Zimbabwe affected. These direct
Impacts
impacts then disrupt operations in key sectors, such as electricity, water and
transport, and disrupt entire supply chains, such as fruits (bananas, pineapples)
from Chimanimani District. The disruption of this national capital stock bodes ill
for long-run economic growth and poverty alleviation and takes time and scantily
available resources to restore.
14
Davis & Hirji (2014), Climate Change and Water Resources Planning, Development and Management in Zimbabwe. World
Bank Issues Paper.
15
MLAWCRR (2020), National Water Resources Master Plan 2020-2040.
Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 9Natural capital
Water (surface and underground), soil, pastures, biodiversity (hot-spots: Kalahari
and Save-Limpopo eco-regions), forests (covering about 46% of the total land
area, 179,748km2), and wetlands (there are more than 1,100 of economic value in
the country that cover about 1.2 million hectares, with dambos being the most
important wetland type in terms of economic and environmental benefits) are
Exposure
directly exposed to extreme climatic events and slow-onset climate changes
across the country. As a result, their provision of ecosystem services is also
reduced. These services include food supply, water purification, soil stabilisation
and health, timber and fibre supply, touristic attraction, genetic diversity, nutrient
recycling, flood control, and runoff modulation.
The 1991/1992 rain season experienced the most extreme drought event in the
past 3 decades. This episode reduced water discharge over Victoria Falls, plant
biodiversity in the rainforest, and resulted in the death of about 148 elephants in
the Hwange National park and about 1,500 in Gonarezhou National Park. Water
shortages, lack of grazing and heat stress threaten the survival of wildlife species,
especially those sensitive to heat, such as elephants. Droughts have continued
to have similar impacts on ecological systems and biodiversity in recent years,
most notably in 2018. A recent study in Hwange National park projected
a reduction of 40% of elephant habitat by 2050 and a change in elephant
population distribution because of climate change16. Other factors that will
increase elephants’ vulnerability to climate change include the increased spread
of diseases, moderate genetic diversity, and slow reproductive rates.17
Impacts
Impacts on these natural assets affects all sectors that rely on their provision
of ecosystem services. For example, higher evaporation rates cause reduced
availability of water from surface and groundwater resources, which, in turn, leads
to:
• Decreased crop yield and crop failure in agriculture
• Fluctuating availability, quality, and cost of agricultural raw materials for
industry
• Reduced hydro-electric power output from the energy sector
• Constrained processing in the mining sector
• Decreased attractiveness of tourism destinations
• Sanitation constraints and increased burden of water-borne diseases for the
health sector
16
Mpakairi, K.S., Ndaimani, H., Tagwireyi, P., et al. (2020). Futuristic climate change scenario predicts a shrinking habitat for
the African elephant (loxodanta Africana): evidence from Hwange National Park Zimbabwe. Eur J Wildl Res 66, 1.
17
GoZ (undated), Zimbabwe’s Fifth National Report to the Convention on Biodiversity. Ministry of Environment, Water and
Climate. Harare.
10 Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021• Increased burdens for women, as they have to walk long distances and spend
more time in search of water for domestic purposes. Women and children
also more pronouncedly suffer the social consequences of a crisis situation, in
which protection mechanisms are minimal. Other impacts on natural assets
include loss of biodiversity; forest and fauna species’ migration; alteration
in migration patterns and biodiversity corridors; and increases in pests
and invasive species. Pests, such as the fall armyworm, tomato leaf miner,
cotton mealybug, larger grain borer and other newcomer pests, are adapted
to shifting weather patterns and are already adversely affecting farmers in
Zimbabwe. The invasion of fall armyworm in 2016 caused maize yield losses
estimated at 263,000 tons (about $83 million in value).
Low rainfall conditions, for example during the 2015–2016 drought, caused
livestock disease rates to increase, accounting for 61% of reported cattle deaths,
particularly in Manicaland and Masvingo provinces. Between November 2017 and
May 2018, a combination of late, heavy rains and a shortage in cattle dip led to
over 3,000 cattle perishing from tick-borne diseases, primarily Theileriosis.
Social capital
Zimbabwe’s societal stability relies on norms, relationships and networks, social
Exposure structure and cohesion, and institutions and laws. These are all exposed to
impacts resulting from climate variability and change.
Climate impacts, including from extreme weather events, lead to seasonal and
forced migration in search of livelihood opportunities. Men and the able-bodied
migrate, altering the social structure of communities by leaving women behind
and responsible for agricultural production in rural areas. The search for water,
sufficient rainfall, fertile soils and good pastures for livestock has also triggered
climate migrants who have settled at water sources, wetlands, riverbanks and
grazing lands. The worst affected areas are in Manicaland Province. These new
illegal and unplanned settlements pose social, economic and administrative
challenges and generate natural-resource-use conflicts at a local level, and
precipitate heightened environmental degradation in fragile ecosystems.
Impacts
Forced migration also hinders development by increasing pressures on urban
infrastructure and services and increasing competition over scarce resources,
thereby increasing the risk of conflict and resulting in worse health, education
and other social outcomes among migrants.
On the other hand, climate variability and change also has impacts on institutions,
as it strengthens the need for implementing adaptation and social policies
alongside economic growth. The Zimbabwe National Development Strategy
(2021-2025) framework, for example, captures “Environment Protection, Climate
Resilience and Natural Resources Management” as a national priority to achieve
sustainable socio-economic development.
Financial capital
Incomes, savings, credit, insurance, and employment held by all citizens and/
or businesses are exposed to climate variability and change. Vulnerable groups
with limited or insecure access to financial services and informal businesses are
Exposure
particularly exposed and represent a majority of the rural area population (65%).
In 2012, only a few women (3%) and men (4%) were served by other formal financial
institutions, such as insurance companies.
Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 11During droughts or floods, crop yields reductions lead to income losses from
farmers. The estimated value of crop losses each year is US $126 million. In 2001,
the estimated loss was US $321 million, increasing to US $513 million in 2008.
At the same time, families face a decrease in savings, as product prices increase
during drought years by 30 to 40%, increasing households’ expenditures. During
the 2015–2016 drought the price of cattle in high rainfall areas ranged from
$350–$450, but communities in drought-affected districts were selling cattle
for as little as $20 - $60 to buy food.
Impacts
Reduced supplies of agricultural raw materials also reduce employment
opportunities in industry and commerce, as was the case during the extreme
drought of 1991/92 when a number of industries faced closure, particularly in the
City of Bulawayo.
In addition, insurance products are less available, as insurers run higher covariate
risks, which are anathema to statistical models of insurance, as extreme events
are more widespread and affect many clients at once.
Source: ICLEI (2021), World Bank (2020), UNDP (2021) Government of Zimbabwe (2016, 2020, 2021), USAID (2019),
3.3 Projected Climate Change in Zimbabwe
Projected climate changes faced by Zimbabwe have been identified from review of the ICLEI Risk and
Vulnerability Assessment Report (2020) and of relevant data included in the NAP development process.18
Overall, the country is projected to experience a progressive reduction in precipitation, increase in
temperatures, increasingly volatile weather events, and less dependable seasons.
Based on CORDEX data for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,19
there is high confidence that Zimbabwe’s mean annual temperatures will increase by 1 to 1.5°C by 2040
from a 1986-2005 baseline. Droughts will increase in frequency and intensity. The increase in Zimbabwe’s
mean annual temperatures could potentially exceed 3°C by 2050, depending on the actual global
emissions pathway achieved. Figure 1 shows projections under RCP8.5 for 2020-2080.
18
National Adaptation Plan: Adaptational Prioritisation Report (2021); Zimbabwe Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
(2021); Zimbabwe GCF Country Programme (2020); Zimbabwe Baseline Report on Economic Development (2012)
19
In climate change modelling, RCP stands for representative greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions trajectory)
pathway that is adopted by the IPCC to describe different climate futures whose likelihood is estimated by the GHG
emissions in the emissions to come.
12 Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021Figure 1: Spatial distribution of Zimbabwe average temperature increase for the periods of 2020-2040 (panel 1), 2041-2060 (panel 2) and 2061-2080 (panel 3) under RCP 8.518 In turn, average rainfall is projected to further decrease by approximately 10% with significant regional differences, although there is more uncertainty over these estimates. This will induce shorter rainy seasons and shifts in the timing of their onset and cessation. The intensity of rainfall events is projected to increase, which may increase flood events. However, projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly cyclones, are uncertain. The spatial distribution of projected rainfall is shown in Figure 2. This highlights that the Southern and Eastern geographies of Zimbabwe are projected to experience the most significant decreases in rainfall between 2020 and 2080. Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 13
Figure 2: Spatial distribution of Zimbabwe mean annual Climate Research Unit (CRU) rainfall for the
periods of 2020-2040 (panel 1), 2041-2060 (panel 2) and 2061-2080 (panel 3) under RCP 8.520
3.4 Adaptation measures
Direct and indirect exposure to climate-related hazards, shocks and stressors are already causing adverse
impacts on Zimbabwe’s human, physical, natural, social and financial capital. Climate projections suggest
that climate-related hazards associated with slow-onset changes in temperature and precipitation, and
with the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, will continue to worsen. In order to avoid further
similar and more damaging impacts, Zimbabwe urgently needs to implement a wide range of adaptation
measures, which seek to reduce climate sensitivities, increase adaptive capacities and/or reduce direct or
indirect exposure to climate-related hazards.
At this stage and for the summative purposes of this high-level NDC report, Zimbabwe is initially focusing
on four high-level priority adaptation measures, namely to:
• Develop, implement and scale-up climate smart agriculture solutions and strengthen agricultural
value chains and markets;
• Enhance early warning and climate-related disaster risk reduction systems (including information
management systems);
• Ensure climate resilient infrastructure designs and development; and
• Develop and promote resilient and sustainable water resources management,
20
Zimbabwe Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (2021)
14 Zimbabwe Revised Nationally Determined Contribution 2021Table 2 below summarises these actions in greater detail. On-going development of the NAP will lead to a
more expansive list of adaptation measures. Once the NAP has been finalised, Zimbabwe has the option
under the Paris Agreement to update its NDC to include the more expansive list of adaptation measures
that speak to the economy-wide vulnerabilities to climate change and re-submit it to the UNFCCC prior
to the end of the next five-year cycle.
Gender will be mainstreamed throughout the implementation of all adaptation measures. This will ensure
that gender-biases are prevented when planning for their implementation, and that the measures can
also directly target gender inequality as an important factor of vulnerability to climate change. Similarly,
the measures will also consider the role of the youth as a way to provide opportunities for employment
and skills development, and to ensure that youth perspectives are represented when planning for
implementation.
Table 2: Priority adaptation measures
Measure 1 Develop, implement and scale-up climate smart agriculture solutions and
strengthen the resilience of agricultural value chains and markets
Description Zimbabwe will promote the use and roll-out of gender sensitive climate-smart
agriculture technologies and practices such as land and water resources
conservation, sustainable mechanisation, agro-ecology, water-efficient irrigation,
renewable energy and energy efficiency, climate adapted crop types/varieties and
livestock types/breeds, crop/livestock diversification, agro-forestry, integrated
pest and disease management, post-harvest technologies, improved livestock
management, fodder production and livestock feeding strategies, silvi-pastoral
systems. Zimbabwe will also implement actions that focus on: (i) increasing
resource-use efficiency along the agricultural value chain (ii) supporting value
addition to agricultural products (iii) improving market access for women and
youth farmers in remote areas, (iv) minimizing waste, and (v) reducing inequalities
along agricultural value chains.
Agricultural value-chains largely employ women. Implementing this measure
thus requires actions that consider gender barriers to accessing information and
resources (such as lack of collateral, illiteracy, etc), as well as actions that directly
address gender inequalities (i.e. supporting women in accessing collateral and
finance, reducing the burden of work, etc).
Adaptation Actions under this measure are expected to increase adaptive capacity by
benefits providing the technology and tools necessary to increase efficiency of agricultural
production. This would allow sustainable use of resources, such as water and soil
in the long-term, thereby reducing sensitivity of water and ecosystems. Adaptive
capacity would also be improved by providing the tools to anticipate future
changes in climate and adjust production accordingly. Finally, actions would
reduce sensitivity to climate change by expanding the use of climate-resilient
breeds of crops and livestock.
Strengthening the resilience of agricultural value chains and resource use efficiency
is expected to reduce the sensitivity of water, energy, waste, and biodiversity
sector to climate change and variabilty. Industry and commerce’s sensitivity
would also decrease through increased stability of the agriculture value chain.
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