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EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN THE ARCTIC AND BEYOND A Global State of Emergency www.ccag.earth GLACIER BREAKS IN WESTERN GREENLAND. PHOTO: MIKA HONKALINNA, 2021
Observations and Impacts
of the Arctic Warming
1.2°C
ICE BREAKS IN NORTHERN BALTIC. PHOTO: MIKA HONKALINNA, 2021
It is difficult to explain the severity of In addition, in recent years there has
the recent extreme floods in Europe been record-breaking extreme heating
and the heatwaves in North America across the Arctic region of astounding
merely with the additional heat magnitude and the emergence of new
and moisture in the climate system risks from wildfires and permafrost
caused by 1.2°C of global warming. thaw, resulting in increased
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
It cannot be excluded that the rapid
warming and melting in the Arctic has Agile international political and
triggered additional changes in how financial action to mitigate the
our weather works, explaining the consequences of climate change
extremity of these extremes. through the following measures
are crucial for a manageable future
The effects of human-caused climate for humanity:
warming are especially pronounced
in the Arctic, with devastating > REDUCTION
consequences for people and deep and rapid emissions
ecosystems in the region and well reduction
beyond the Arctic. The global impacts
of Arctic warming will be felt first and > REMOVAL
foremost in our weather systems as removing GHGs from the
well as sea level rise. The Arctic region atmosphere at scale
is warming faster than anywhere else
on the planet, resulting in rapid and > REPAIR
irreversible sea ice loss as well as loss refreezing the Arctic region
from the Greenland ice sheet.
Warming of the Arctic is taking place global temperatures, and since around
Figure 1 much faster than the global average 1990 Arctic warming has risen above
temperature rise (see Figure 1) and the global average by a continuously
Warming of
the Arctic is is having implications well beyond increasing margin. Over the last 30
happening the polar region. The dark blue years, the Arctic has warmed at a
much faster line shows the deviation of global rate of 0.81°C per decade – more than
than the rise in
average temperature from average 3-times faster than the global average
global average
temperatures. pre- industrial annual temperatures of 0.23°C per decade. The Arctic
Over the last 30 (taken as average temperatures Circle region had a more than 3.5°C
years the Arctic between 1850 and 1900), with a increase above the pre-industrial level
has warmed at
gentle upward trend in temperature last summer (2020). The last few years
a rate of 0.81˚C
per decade, more that becomes more marked and have experienced record temperatures
than 3-times sustained from about 1960. The over regions where permafrost resides
faster than the red line in Figure 1 shows annual and scientists have been shocked
global average
deviation from pre-industrial average- that the warm weather conducive
of 0.23˚C per
decade. temperature levels in the Arctic (using to permafrost thawing is occurring
the same baseline). Temperature roughly 70 years ahead of model
Data from variability in the Arctic has been projections.
Berkeley Earth. consistently more extreme than in
FIGURE 1
Amplification
Amplificationof temperature changechange
of temperature in the Arctic
in the Arctic
ANNUAL ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO 1850-1900 AVERAGE
ANNUAL ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO 1850-1900 AVERAGE
Berkeley Earth surface temperature data
3.5
Temperature anomaly (°C)
3
2.5
2
1. 5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
ARCTIC
Arctic(60°N-90°N)
(60°N-90°N)TEMPERATURE CHANGE
temperature change GLOBAL
GlobalTEMPERATURE
temperatureCHANGE
change
Amplified warming of the Arctic in ocean-absorption of the sun’s
1
Marcianesi F, Aulicino
G and Wadhams causes, and is caused by, the rapid loss energy also accelerates long-term
P. 2021. Arctic sea of sea ice from the Arctic ocean. As heating of oceans, pushing global
ice and snow cover
albedo variability and
sea ice melts, its highly reflective white warming further and faster. The area
trends during the surface is replaced by a highly heat- of exposed Arctic seawater, with
last three decades. absorbing blue surface (sea water). its accelerating feedback into the
Polar Science. 28;
Schweiger A, Lindsay global heating process, has increased
R, Zhang J, Steele M, The switch from reflection to accordingly. Figure 2 shows the 75%
Stern H and Kwok R.
2011. Uncertainty in
absorption of sunlight accelerates loss of summer volume of Arctic sea-
modeled Arctic sea the local temperature increase, ice from the late 1970s to the present;
ice volume. Journal of creating a dangerous feedback that
Geophysical Research:
the decline accelerates markedly from
Oceans. 116(8). hastens climate change. The increase about 1990.1
FIGURE 2
Figure 2
Decline in Annual
Arctic Sea Ice Volume in September Minimum Arctic
Sea Ice Volume
1979-2020
DECLINING BY 3200KM3 PER DECADE
Data from
the Polar Science
Centre
20
18
16
14
1000s of km3
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
The loss of Arctic sea ice accelerates of the Antarctic ice sheet, glaciers
the global warming process and, in of the Hindu Kush Himalayas, and
turn, sea level rise. Global warming, across the world’s mountain ranges,
90% of which is absorbed by the as well as expansion of the warming
oceans, causes thermal expansion oceans, global sea level is now rising
of seawater, responsible for about at 3.6 mm each year, 2.5 times faster
a third of observed sea-level rise in than the rate of rise during the 20th
recent decades (IPCC SROCC, 2019). Century. Ice melt is now the dominant
Sea level rise from thermal expansion source of sea level rise (exceeding
will soon seem a minor challenge that caused by thermal expansion of
when compared with the profound the ocean). Estimates and projections
developing threat of melting ice on of sea-level rise and their impacts by
land as our climate warms. the 2050s have been radically revised
in recent years. By the end of this
The sheer scale of sea-level rise century, global sea levels are now
produced by the Greenland and likely to rise by more than 1 metre
Antarctic ice sheets will dwarf current unless ambitious action is taken to
dangers as warming and melting mitigate climate change.2
continues. There is enough ice in the
Greenland ice sheet alone to raise Moreover, the Arctic also holds vast
global sea levels by 7.5 metres, or amounts of stored methane that is
23 feet. While it may take several locked within permafrost, frozen
centuries to millennia for ice loss soils, and beneath the sea floor of the 2
IPCC. 2019. Special
Report on the Ocean
on this scale, we are now setting in Arctic ocean. Rapid warming of the and Cryosphere in
motion the process that will make Arctic is causing permafrost to warm a Changing Climate
multi-metre increases in future sea and destabilise. The increasing carbon [[H.-O. Pörtner,
D.C. Roberts, V.
level rise unstoppable. Ice loss from dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) Masson-Delmotte,
the Greenland ice sheet, its peripheral emissions from Arctic permafrost have P. Zhai, M. Tignor,
E. Poloczanska,
glaciers and other mountain glaciers resulted from it flipping from a carbon K. Mintenbeck, A.
in the Arctic is accelerating and sink to a source. In 2019, the Arctic Alegría, M. Nicolai,
A. Okem, J. Petzold,
causing global sea levels to rise. With is estimated to have contributed B. Rama, N.M. Weyer
added contributions from melting roughly the equivalent of 6.3% of that (eds.)] In press.
3
IPCC. 2019. Special year’s anthropogenic CO2 emissions. continue as at present, up to 89% of
Report on the Ocean
and Cryosphere in Permafrost thaw has also released the planet’s near-surface permafrost
a Changing Climate unspecified quantities of CH4 which, could be lost by 2100, releasing tens
[[H.-O. Pörtner,
D.C. Roberts, V.
on a molecular basis, is 140 times to hundreds of billions of tonnes of
Masson-Delmotte, as powerful a warming influence permafrost carbon as CO2 and CH4
P. Zhai, M. Tignor, as CO2, and nitrous oxide, which is to the atmosphere and exacerbating
E. Poloczanska,
K. Mintenbeck, A. roughly 300 times more powerful per climate change globally.3 This means
Alegría, M. Nicolai, molecule a warming agent as CO2 on that even climate intervention
A. Okem, J. Petzold,
B. Rama, N.M. Weyer a 20-year basis. It has recently been proposals may be unable to bring
(eds.)] In press. estimated that around 12 times more the global average temperature back
nitrous oxide is being released from to near present levels. While the
permafrost than previously thought. exact level of global warming that
would lead to irreversible permafrost
With ongoing temperature increases thaw and a tipping point feedback
due to human-caused warming, with climate warming is not known,
permafrost will continue thawing, there are indications that as small a
releasing CO2 and CH4, adding to the warming as 1.5°C to 2°C may trigger
warming. If greenhouse gas emissions such a transformation.
ICE HAS PACKED ON TOP OF EACH OTHER IN THE NORTHERN BALTIC. PHOTO: MIKA HONKALINNA, 2021
CASE STUDY:
Northeastern Siberia – a Region in Flux
Northeastern Siberia, meaning the have shifted in profound ways.4
geographies of Republic of Sakha- Mercury leaches from the permafrost
Yakutia, Magadan and Chukotka in into the rivers and ultimately to the
the Russian Arctic, are some of the ocean and into marine circulation. It
most dynamic regions for Arctic then transforms into methylmercury
climate change. and accumulates in the food chain (for
example in fish and top predators).
NE Siberia has been called the “pole
of cold” as the coldest temperature Infrastructure, such as buildings,
in the Northern Hemisphere was pipelines and airfields suffer
recorded in Verkhoyansk (−67.8°C in from permafrost melt. During the
1892). However, in 2020 temperatures extended 2020 Siberian heatwave, oil
soared to a new high of 38.7°C repositories leaked in Central Siberia
in the same community. This was and polluted a river as the ground
part of a sustained heat wave that gave away under the containers.
impacted Siberia in 2020, where the The nuclear power plant in Bilibino
average warming was more than 6°C has been identified as a potential
above pre-industrial levels over the threat as it has been constructed on
six months from January to June. permafrost in Chukotka. In Magadan,
Attribution studies have concluded new large hydrodams are also built
that this prolonged heatwave would on permanently frozen soils and if
have been practically impossible thawed events worsen, putting the
without human-caused climate Kolyma river hydropower at potential
warming, and was made at least 2°C risk. Across the Russian tundra, new
worse by climate change. craters have exploded. These craters,
most likely the result of permafrost
This is also the home region of melt and released gas explosion
the nomadic Indigenous Chukchi, from the soils, were first detected by
Yukaghir, Even, Dolgan and Indigenous reindeer herders.
other peoples, who are facing
unprecedented changes each year. Meanwhile, taiga forest species are
It is important to understand that on the move as they shift towards the
the Russian Arctic still has unique tundra.5 Tundra is also becoming more
nomadic lifestyles. These UNESCO- green – willows, bushes and other
recognised communities, often led plants are moving northwards. This
by women, carry ancient wisdom and has implications for carbon budgets
knowledge about the tundra and the and sequestration, wildlife and tundra
northern taiga. ecosystems, as well as nesting areas
of migratory birds which arrive in the
A combination of tundra and forest Arctic in millions during the spring
fires, extreme temperatures over and summer. 4
Mustonen T and
extended periods, and the long- Shadrin V. 2021. The
River Alazeya: Shifting
term Arctic warming trends, have In 2016 in the region of Yamal, Socio-Ecological
caused the region to show system anthrax was released from an ancient Systems Connected
to a Northeastern
change implications. First off, the nomadic campsite and burial area, Siberian River. Journal
permafrost is melting across Sakha- as the permafrost thawed. This killed of The Arctic Institute
Yakutia fast, and has been doing so one Indigenous Nenets boy and of North America.
74(1).
for the past 10-15 years. Mustonen thousands of reindeer – a central
and Shadrin (2021) explored a animal for the food security of the 5
Pecl G T et al.
century of recorded temperatures, Indigenous nomadic peoples of the 2017. Biodiversity
redistribution
Indigenous oral histories and flood region. In Sakha-Yakutia, expectations under climate
events, especially in 2007 on Alazeya of smallpox outbreaks emerge as change: Impacts
on ecosystems and
River, and discovered how the water gravesites and animal burial sites human well-being.
patterns and terrestrial ecosystems surface from the thaw. Science. 355(6332).
SIBERIAN PERMAFROST CRATER. PHOTO: SNOWCHANGE, 2021 Solution spaces exist in scales. in those parts of the Arctic (European Maintaining and supporting Indigenous North) where permafrost melt is nomadic lifeways and working with not yet under way remains critically Indigenous knowledge provides a important. The rights of the Indigenous much-needed observational network peoples and decisions on how the of changes, both present and past, lands are used should be centered to which remote sensing cannot provide allow local peoples to make decisions in detail. Rewilding and preservation regarding their own futures in this time of peat and soil-based carbon stocks of transformation.
NUTENDLI NOMADIC CHUKCHI REINDEER HERDERS IN NE SIBERIA. PHOTO: SNOWCHANGE, 2021
UNDERSTANDING “NEVER BEFORE” IN
ARCTIC SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
The Arctic and northern boreal fishing (which may imply better
have evolved over the past 10,000 financial gains).
years to be one of the most
unique habitats on the planet, Loss of the Arctic and northern boreal,
with the traditional Indigenous which is often included in the northern
communities adapting in the view, implies a planetary ecology and
process – the Arctic socio-ecological system shift both in the oceans and on
systems of fishing, hunting, and land. Nobody has the compass for the
nomadic reindeer herding. new century. Large populations have
not yet come to terms that humanity
Understanding the impacts of several will have a newly open ocean soon on
“never before” events in the Arctic the planet – the Central Arctic Ocean.
and their implications further south A recent international diplomatic
is urgent and very complex. For treaty6 banning fisheries and
species, both in the terrestrial and in advocating precautionary principles
the marine realms, southern biota is between the Arctic Countries, China,
moving into the tundra and into the South Korea, the EU and others shows
previously occupied niches of the that good governance can happen.
adapted cold weather species. Often Equally so, the Arctic has “made
these localised northern populations in the region” solutions that work, 6
International
Agreement to Prevent
have nowhere to run – for example, from the observational capacity of Unregulated Fishing
in Finland when red foxes move the Indigenous peoples with their in the High Seas of
northwards, the endemic Arctic Fox knowledge, adaptation solutions that the Central Arctic
Ocean, signed in 2018
has to retreat further north, until it “fit the shoe”, rewilding capacity of by Canada, Iceland,
meets the Arctic Sea and cannot carbon sinks and most importantly, the Kingdom of
Denmark, Norway, the
move any further. In Greenland, cod the need to preserve and maintain the United States and the
move further north and sea ice is still existing poles of cold and habitats Russian Federation, as
well as China, Japan,
being lost, meaning communities have such as the large intact forests and South Korea and the
to switch from seal hunting to primary tundra ecosystems, as long as we can. European Union.
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN THE
ARCTIC AND BEYOND
Loss of ice in the Arctic is In the Northern Hemisphere, extreme
accompanied by significant changes weather is often associated with
across the globe as weather systems meanders in the Jet Stream that allow
react. Climate change is happening warm air to be pushed further north
faster than anticipated; one than usual and to stall over a location
consequence – the loss of ice in the for many days bringing persistent
Arctic – is also a driver for more rapid extreme conditions. It is believed
global heating and disastrously rapid that the amplification of Arctic
global sea level rise and extreme warming, and the reduced north-
weather events. south temperature gradient that this
is causing, could be allowing the Jet
Extreme temperature events are the Stream to meander more than it used
combination of long-term climate to. The rapid warming of the Arctic,
warming, and the weather. The combined with weather extremes
impact of global warming on daily from the Jet Stream, have resulted
temperatures is now observable in record-breaking heat and rainfall
across the globe, and heat extremes in parts of the Northern Hemisphere
are becoming hotter and occurring that has severe impacts on people, the
more often. environment and infrastructure.
FIGURE 3
Important Circumpolar Natural Processes in the
North Polar Region
10-30 miles above
the surface
5-9 miles above
the surface
Figure 3
Graphic adapted
from the Bulletin
of the American
Meterological
Society.
DOI: https://doi.
org/10.1175BAMS
-D-15-00212.1
FIGURE 4
Figure 4
Graphic adapted
How do the Recent Warming Trends in the from Paul Horn
Inside Climate
Network
Arctic Affect the Jet Stream?
FIRST
When there is a large stable
temperature difference between
the equatorial region and the
North Pole the Jet Stream tends
to remain in the higher regions of
the northen hemisphere.
There can be a =/- 15°C
temperature differences
between one regiong
and another.
SECOND
As the temperature difference
between the equator and the Pole
is reduced then the Jet Stream
begins to oscillate southward
(sometimes stalling), creating
hot/cold region weather extremes,
which tends to enhance droughts
and flooding in some locations at
lower latitudes.
There are two important circumpolar Polar Jet Stream are active year-
natural processes in the north polar round, and hence have an influence
region, one in the stratosphere and on Northern Hemisphere weather
the other in the troposphere, both of on the order of days to weeks
which are affected by energy moving to months. As the temperatures
northward from equatorial regions and increase in the lower levels of the
affected by climate change processes. troposphere, particularly in the Arctic
The Polar Vortex affects Northern and high northern regions, the polar
Hemisphere weather processes on Jet Stream becomes destabilised
long time-scales, mostly in the winter and able to meander into lower and
seasons and over years. The time- higher latitudes as it circles the globe
scales of the the dynamics within the from west to east.Figure 5 EXTREME HEAT AND RAIN IN THE UNITED STATES
Graphic adapted
from Climate
The Sandy storm in New York City on This allowed heavy rains to persist
Central.
October 29, 2012 provided insights over the US northeast for many days.
on the importance of the Jet Stream. Over the course of 48 hours, wind,
rain, and ocean inundation destroyed
This event began with a combination homes and affected hundreds of
of a stalled Jet Stream, a hurricane thousands of New Yorkers with loss
from the southeast that also stalled of electrical power, access to food,
in place and a classical “nor'easter” drinking water, healthcare, and other
arriving from the northeast (figure 5). critical services.
FIGURE 5
The combination of these three concurrent
storms “pinned” them over New York City
A classical Nor’easter
came from the East
Strong Hurricane
came from the south
Note the jet stream was locked
and pushed into the coast
FIGURE 6
Extraordinary Local Extreme Temperatures in the
Pacific Northwest and Canada
Figure 6 LYTTON, BRITISH COLUMBIA
Lytton, British
Columbia
on June 29,
2021 recorded
Canada’s highest
ever temperature
of 49.6°C
(121.3°F)
Graphic adapted
from 2021 KNOE,
Jun 29, 2021HEATWAVE IN EUROPE. PHOTO: LUCIAN DACHMAN, 2019
The Jet Stream can also become heat, but several hundred still died
locked in place in what is called as a result of this heatwave. Within
an “Omega Block”. This type of the affected areas, over 31 million
weather event led to the extraordinary people were under a National Weather
heatwave in the Pacific Northwest Service “Excessive Heat Warning”
and Canada in late June of 2021, (A heat index of 105 °F or greater)
as depicted in figure 5 where the or a “Heat Advisory” (where human
“Ridge” is trapped between two low health can be seriously affected by the
pressure regions on the outside of the extreme temperatures if precautions
Jet Stream and a high pressure inside are not taken). Rapid attribution has
the “Ridge”. Within the omega block, shown that a heatwave of this severity
extreme temperatures were able to would have been virtually impossible
develop from Canada to California without human-caused climate change.
within a “heat dome” 7, where high- It is possible that climate change
pressure circulation in the atmosphere impacts on the weather (including on
acts like a dome or cap over a region the Jet Stream) have increased the
and it traps heat at the surface. chances of this type of extreme heat,
beyond what could be expected from
In the states of Oregon and climate warming alone.
Washington and the western
provinces of Canada, recorded Heatwave conditions in the western
temperatures during this event were United States this year have been
far above 40°C (104 °F), in many made even worse by the intense
places breaking previous heat records drought currently being experienced,
by 5°C. Normally heat records are threatening water resources and
only broken by tenths of a degree, not fuelling devastating wildfires. When
by several degrees – highlighting the the environment is dry, there is
exceptional severity of this event. A limited evaporation of water that
new all-time Canadian temperature would normally provide a cooling
record of 49.6°C (121.3 °F) was set in effect to ameliorate heat. In mid-July,
the village of Lytton, which the next Death Valley was reported to have
day was all but destroyed by wildfire. a 130 Degree F (54°C) maximum 7
NOAA. What is a
Heatwaves are deadly events and temperature; this is believed to be heat dome? https://
oceanservice.noaa.
cooling centres were established the highest temperature ever reliably gov/facts/heat-
to try to protect citizens from the measured on Earth. dome.htmlEUROPEAN FLOODS AND EXTREME WEATHER
EVENTS IN WESTERN EUROPE
In mid-July this year, parts of western this clearly unprecedented flooding.
Europe experienced extremely heavy This work will determine the degree
and long-lasting rainfall, causing to which human-caused climate
catastrophic floods as rivers rapidly change played a role in the unusual
swelled and burst their banks. The intensity, duration and spatial extent
scale of subsequent devastation of this rainfall event. Nevertheless,
and death toll (over 200 to date on it is scientifically well established
20 July 2021) has far surpassed any that precipitation is intensified due
earlier documented experience of to global warming because of an
extreme flooding in the region. exponential relationship between
atmospheric warming and the
A number of localities registered amount of moisture the air can
new daily maximum rainfall records. hold. In other words, there is a
One particularly striking example is large body of scientific evidence
the weather station Hagen-Nahmer making us highly confident that the
that was in the area of the strongest intensity of this weather event was
precipitation. There, 167.8mm of strengthened by global warming,
rain was measured in the course of and that further warming will lead
only three hours, more than double to further intensification of extreme
the average monthly rainfall for the precipitation events.
whole of July. Another outstanding
rainfall record was set in Cologne It has already been found that the
(Stammheim weather station): past several decades have been
153.5mm over 24 hours, compared one of the most flood-rich periods
to the previous all-time daily high of in Europe in the last 500 years, and
95mm (in 2017), and before that 91mm a climate-change signal has been
on 30th August 1968, for a location identified in shifting European river
where rainfall events on average are flooding patterns. At the same
well below 10mm/day. time, the magnitude and extent of
the most recent extreme rainfall in
The amount of rain that fell in a single western Europe, and the subsequent
day during this extreme rainfall event flooding and damage, outstrip climate
was about as much as the affected scientists’ expectations under the
area normally receives over the course current global warming of 1.2°C above
of two months in the summer. So the preindustrial average temperature.
much rainfall in a short period of Relatively straightforward
time raised water levels in a number of thermodynamic processes, which
small regional rivers running through form the basis of climate models, do
townships to all-time highs that were not offer a full explanation for extreme
multiple times above the normal values. outlier phenomena such as this or
indeed the next-to-impossible heat
It will take some time for scientists wave in the western North America
to complete attribution analyses of presented in the previous section.
FLOODING IN ENGLAND. PHOTO: CHRIS GALLAGHER, 20218
Kornhuber K et
EXTREME WEATHER BEYOND EXPECTATIONS al. 2019. Extreme
weather events in
early summer 2018
connected by a
recurrent hemispheric
As explained in the previous section, region, a meandering Jet Stream and wave-7 pattern.
Environmental
when the temperature difference is extreme weather, particularly during Research Letters.
reduced between a rapidly warming the Northern hemisphere summer. 14(5); Coumou D et al.
2018. The influence of
Arctic and warm air from the Similar connections have been found Arctic amplification on
Equatorial region, this slows down for the extreme heatwave and forest mid-latitude summer
circulation. Nature
the Northern Jet Stream. fires over Europe in 20188, the California Communications.
fires in 20189, and the droughts and 9(2959).
The Northern Jet Stream then heat over Russia in 201010.
starts meandering in wide so-called
9
Mann M et al. 2018.
Projected changes in
Rossby waves, which can lock-in We cannot exclude that this is what persistent extreme
high- and low-pressure weather we are experiencing again. Not summer weather
events: The role
systems, explaining why warm least as we simultaneously witness of quasi-resonant
and dry high-pressure or wet and weather disaster in Germany, the amplification. Science
Advances. 4(10).
cooler low-pressure systems get highest temperatures ever observed
stalled in one geographic location for June in Finland and the US, the 10
Lau W K M and Kim
for longer time periods. There catastrophic heatwave in British K. 2012. The 2010
Pakistan Flood and
is, so far, no conclusive scientific Columbia, and extreme heat in Siberia. Russian Heat Wave:
agreement that a slow-down of These are all outlier events that Teleconnection of
the Jet Stream due to Arctic melt exceed what one would expect if it Hydrometeorological
Extremes. Journal of
contributed to the magnitude of were "only" a 1.2°C warming impact. Hydrometeorology.
the 2021 summer extremes in the It is likely that there are additional 13(1).
Northern Hemisphere. But there are interactions between the climate
an increasing number of scientific system and tipping elements (in this
publications making the connection case the Arctic and the Jet Stream)
between a rapidly warming Arctic occurring simultaneously.
LABOR DAY FIRES IN SAN FRANCISCO. PHOTO: PATRICK PERKINS, 2020ICEBERG IN GREENLAND. PHOTO: ANNIE SPRATT, 2020
THE RISK OF TIPPING CASCADES:
What happens in the Arctic does
not stay in the Arctic
There is rising scientific evidence water, which in the North Atlantic
that the Arctic is not only the most expresses itself as the Gulf Stream.
rapidly warming region on Earth, but So far, Arctic ice melt has contributed
that it may also be a key "ground to a 15% slow-down of the AMOC11
zero" for cascading impacts across that is unprecedented over at least
the planet. The Arctic is one of some the past 1,000 years. This slow-
15 known tipping elements of the down of heat flux in the Atlantic
Earth system. These tipping elements impacts on the South American
are each big biophysical systems that monsoon, which can explain the
contribute to regulate the state of higher frequency of droughts and
the climate system on Earth. fires in the Amazon rainforest, causing
loss of biodiversity, natural capital
A stable Arctic controls temperature and increased CO2 release to the
on Earth by reflecting back incoming atmosphere. A slow-down of the
solar radiation from white ice sheet AMOC also leads to warmer surface
and sea ice surfaces, and through water being held in the Southern
modulating the distribution of heat Ocean, which may explain the
and salinity in the global oceans accelerated melting of West Antarctic
through flows of ice melt. Now this Ice Sheet. Observations recently
is being disrupted, as the melting have indicated that the "Doomsday
Greenland ice sheet is releasing large glacier", the Thwaites glacier, may
volumes of cold freshwater into the have already crossed a tipping point
11
Caesar L et al. 2021.
Current Atlantic
North Atlantic. This contributes to of unstoppable ice loss, already at
Meridional Overturning slow-down of the Atlantic Meridional 1.2°C of global warming, potentially
Circulation weakest in
last millennium. Nature
Overturning Circulation (AMOC), accelerated by dynamics triggered in
Geoscience. 14. the heat conveyor belt of ocean the Arctic.NEXT STEPS AND RECOMMENDED RESPONSES
The story is simple. Climate and by the financial sector, to ensure
change is happening faster than that all investments in infrastructure
anticipated; one consequence – are fit for purpose in a zero carbon
the loss of ice in the polar regions world, are key pillars of priority
– is also a driver for more rapid action. In the business community
global heating and disastrously we must rapidly transition hard to
rapid global sea level rise. abate sectors onto a decarbonisation
path, whilst individuals must change
Consequences are increasingly habits which are inducive to
violent – whether methane explosions continued loss of ecosystems, for
in the northern Arctic region, or example forests.
increasingly severe heatwaves, storms,
fires, droughts and floods across the The current situation described in this
globe. This picture requires urgent paper indicates that GHG levels are
recognition, and a rapid political and already too high for a manageable
collective response. future for humanity. We must fast-
track the understanding and rapid
It is important to understand how bad implementation of safe processes
things are, but no one should bury for GHG removal at scale from the
their heads in the sand in despair; atmosphere. Such activity is now
concerted action right now at all levels underway in many countries in
of global society and governance will the world to investigate the most
enable the planet to stabilise, and productive way forward to achieve
humanity to thrive. As climate change this. In order to buy time we urgently
continues, largely unabated, the need to find safe ways to recreate ice
window of opportunity to remediate cover over the Arctic Ocean during
it is rapidly closing and options for the Arctic summer. This work is in its
doing so are rapidly diminishing. The infancy but has been initated.
Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG)
was created in response to this The roll out of any of these processes
emergency, a new advisory group to must be done in a way that is sensitive
help inform the public, governments to the needs of the Indigenous
and financial institutions, providing peoples of these regions. We need the
them with the most comprehensive Indigenous communities to be active
science, and more crucially, guiding partners in these processes.
them towards action for climate repair.
Reduction activities will benefit
The Climate Crisis Advisory Group from a better situational view – the
believes we need agile international Arctic communities and Indigenous
political and financial action to communities could be central partners
mitigate the consequences of climate in sharing, on their terms and consent,
change through Reduction, Removal their wisdom, knowledge and real time 12
Huntington H et
and Repair measures. observations (ranging from tundra fire al. 2017. How small
communities respond
early warning systems to permafrost to environmental
Focused action by governments, melt events and tipping points). This change: patterns
from tropical to polar
particularly looking at regulatory can enpower the communities from ecosystems. Ecology
procedures to speed up transition, victims to partners in solutions.12 and Society. 22(3).
ICE MELT IN FINLAND. PHOTO: JUHA LAKANIEMI, 2017FOREST FIRE IN THE FINNISH BOREAL. PHOTO: SNOW CHANGE 2021 One third of the world’s soil based regions, where it has been lost due to carbon is still locked up in the northern man-made changes. peatlands, forests and ecosystems. Sweden, Finland, Canada and The thawing of permafrost and Northwestern Russia have potential to its consequential emissions of rewild and restore degraded peatlands carbon dioxide and methane can back into carbon sinks, enabling the be addressed only by direct cooling trapping of millions of tonnes of CO2 measures and refreezing of the Arctic: in a speedy manner. More broadly the this approach is designed to buy time ecosystem restoration of Arctic rivers until the rate of permafrost-thaw and (removal of hydrodams, restoration of ice-melt is automatically slowed down habitats) could alleviate and buy time by emissions disappearance, adapted for cold-water adapted species and farming methods and GHG removal re-start carbon circulation in the from the atmosphere at scale. All of these transitions and changes demand policy interventions to kick-start new market preferences, reward desired behaviours, or to discourage undesirable outcomes. Many technical solutions already exist, but political will is required to push them through.
This report was authored by the Climate Crisis Advisory Group with Dr. Tara Shirvani ICE BREAKS IN NORTHERN BALTIC. PHOTO: MIKA HONKALINNA, 2021 WAYS TO REACH US AND HELP US CARRY OUT OUR MISSION: www.ccag.earth Climate Crisis Advisory Group @climatecrisisag @climatecrisisag Climate Crisis Advisory Group PUBLIC MEETINGS: > This series of open meetings will be livestreamed on social media on the last Thursday of each month.
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