AGRICULTURE & RURAL DEVELOPMENT SECTORS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION GUIDANCE NOTE
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AGRICULTURE
& RURAL
DEVELOPMENT
SECTORS
CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION
GUIDANCE
NOTE
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 1
Disclaimer This document has a restricted distribution and may be and other information used in this report does not imply used by recipients only in the performance of their official any judgment or views on the part of IsDB nor its member duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed countries concerning the legal status of any territory or the without the authorization of IsDB. The content including endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries boundaries shown on any map, colors, denominations, and information. 2 | Islamic Development Bank
Acknowledgments
The preparation of the Agriculture & Rural The guidance note was reviewed and received input from
Development Sectors guidance note was Dr. Bashir Jama Adan (Agriculture Infrastructure Division,
led by the IsDB Climate Change Division IsDB) and United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
with input from agriculture sector experts (FAO) staff including Rima Al-Azar, Habimana Didier, and
at the Islamic Development Bank and Kim Jeongha.
partner institutions.
The main author of this guidance note was the World
The guidance note was developed by the IsDB Climate Resources Institute (WRI), technical consultant to the
Change Division (Dr. Ahmed Al Qabany, Olatunji Yusuf) Islamic Development Bank. Special thanks to Lauren
under the general oversight of Dr. Mansur Muhtar, Vice Sidner (WRI) and Michael Westphal (WRI) for their effort
President (Country Programs) and May Babiker, Acting in this work.
Director, Resilience and Social Development Department.
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 3
1. About this Guidance Note
This guidance note on the agriculture and rural development After a brief background on projected climate changes in the
sectors was prepared by the World Resources Institute (WRI) regions where IsDB operates and their projected impacts
for the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) to enable IsDB project on the agriculture and rural development sectors (Section
teams to integrate information on climate risks into project 2), Section 3 explains the purpose of this note within a
design. It applies to agriculture and rural development projects broader climate risk management process. It describes
involving physical assets. For the purposes of this note, the the steps involved in managing a project’s climate change
agriculture and rural development sectors include the following: risks—beginning with climate risk screening, followed by
project impact and adaptation assessments, and ending
• Crop production projects, including rainfed and irrigated
with project implementation. Section 4 then describes
production systems
the process of determining potential climate impacts on
• Livestock production projects agriculture and rural development projects and identifying
• Aquaculture projects adaptation options to address those impacts. Section 5
presents an approach to evaluate adaptation options, and
• Projects relating to postharvest elements of the food
Section 6 concludes with a case study that demonstrates a
value chain, including postharvest storage, processing,
practical example of this approach.
distribution, and marketing
• Rural housing projects
2. Background: Climate Change and the Agriculture
and Rural Development Sectors
In 2017, a total of $3.9 billion was approved from IsDB’s (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), precipitation is
Ordinary Capital Resources. (IsDB 2017). Of the total, 18.4 likely to increase at higher latitudes by the middle of the 21st
percent went to agricultural and rural development century and in parts of eastern and southern Asia by the
(IsDB 2017). IsDB operates in four core regions: the Middle late 21st century. Water scarcity is expected to be a major
East and North African, sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and challenge for most of Asia due to increased water demand
Central Asia, and Asia and Latin America. Observed and
1
and poor water management (Hijioka et al. 2014). In Europe,
projected climate changes vary across these regions. future climate projections vary regionally, with projected
temperature increases throughout the region, precipitation
Throughout much of Africa, mean temperatures have
increases in northern Europe, and precipitation decreases in
increased by at least 0.5°C over the last 50 to 100 years,
southern Europe. Across the continent, climate projections
with minimum temperatures rising faster than maximum
indicate a marked increase in heat waves, droughts, and
temperatures. Much of the region lacks sufficient data to
heavy precipitation events (Kovats et al. 2014).
draw conclusions about trends in annual precipitation.
However, in the western and eastern Sahel regions, annual Lastly, significant trends in precipitation and temperature
precipitation has likely decreased, and in parts of eastern have been observed in Central America and South America,
and southern Africa, it has likely increased. In terms of but the patterns vary regionally. Increased warming has
model projections, it is likely that land temperatures over been observed throughout the region, with the exception of
Africa will rise faster than the global average, particularly the Chilean coast. Increases in temperature extremes have
in the more arid regions. There is considerable uncertainty been measured in Central America and most of tropical and
regarding projected precipitation patterns in sub- subtropical South America, while more frequent extreme
Saharan Africa, but there is greater model agreement that rainfall in southeastern South America has produced more
precipitation will increase in east Africa and decrease in landslides and flash floods. Under the RCP 8.5, climate
north and southwest Africa. Across the continent, climate models project a mean reduction of 10 percent in annual
change is expected to exacerbate existing water stress precipitation for Central America (with a reduction in
(Niang et al. 2014). summer precipitation) by 2100, a decrease of 10 percent for
tropical South America east of the Andes, and an increase in
In the past century, much of Asia has experienced warming
15 to 20 percent for southeastern South America. One major
trends and increasing temperature extremes. There is
concern is the melting of the Andean cryosphere, which is
little agreement on projected precipitation patterns at a
altering the seasonal distribution of streamflow.
subregional scale, but under a higher warming scenario
4 | Islamic Development BankThe projected impacts of climate change on agricultural In Africa, rising temperature and changes in precipitation
production vary geographically and are highly dependent on are likely to decrease cereal production; high-value perennial
the overall warming and the degree of adaptation employed. crops may also experience yield losses due to temperature
One factor that will impact agricultural production is the increases (Niang et al. 2014).In Asia, many rice-growing
degree to which elevated levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) have regions are near the heat stress limits for rice, and rising
a stimulatory impact on yields (known as CO2 fertilization). temperatures are expected to result in lower yields due to
While there is some uncertainty (and a lack of evidence in shorter growing periods. In Central Asia, cereal production
nontemperate regions), field studies indicate that C3 plants could increase in Kazakhstan, while in Turkmenistan
(wheat, rice, cotton, soybean, sugar beets, and potatoes) and Uzbekistan, frequent droughts could affect cotton
will benefit more than C 4 plants (corn, sorghum, sugarcane). production, and increased water demand for irrigation may
However, the impact will vary widely based on the availability exacerbate desertification. In the Indo-Gangetic Plains of
of water and nutrients, with studies indicating that rainfed South Asia, heat stress could result in a decrease of about
systems may benefit more from higher CO2 concentrations 50 percent in the most favorable and high-yielding wheat
than irrigated systems do (Porter et al. 2014). areas, while sea-level rise will inundate low-lying areas and
will significantly affect rice growing regions in Asia
Overall, there is high confidence that a rise of 4°C or more
(e.g., Bangladesh) (Hijioka et al. 2014).
in global temperature, combined with increasing food
demand, would pose large risks to food security, particularly Climate change many have positive or negative impacts
in low-latitude regions. In the absence of adaptation, local in northern latitudes; the potential for a longer growing
temperature increases of 2°C or more will likely negatively season may be offset by, inter alia, water scarcity, increases
impact production of major crops like wheat, rice, and maize in extreme weather events, or increased disease and pest
in tropical and temperate regions. Projected impacts vary outbreaks. On average, adaptation improves yields by the
across crops and regions and adaptation scenarios: about equivalent of approximately 15 to 18 percent of current
10 percent of projections for the period 2030–2049 show yields, but the projected benefits of adaptation are greater
yield gains of more than 10 percent, and about 10 percent for crops in temperate, as opposed to tropical regions, with
of projections show yield losses of more than 25 percent, wheat- and rice-based systems more adaptable than those
with respect to the late 20th century. After 2050, the risk of of maize (Porter et al. 2014).
more severe impacts increases, particularly for low-latitude
regions (Porter et al. 2014).
3. Project Climate Risk Management
This guidance aims to help project teams incorporate Aware identifies key climate risk areas for the project,
climate change considerations into project planning and based on project category and location. If the initial climate
design. It will support the broader climate risk management risk screening using Aware indicates that a project has
process, which begins with climate risk screening and some level of climate risk, project impact and adaptation
concludes with project implementation. Figure 1 below assessments follow. This guidance note is meant to support
briefly summarizes the climate risk management process.2 those phases of the climate risk management process.
Though the terminology and precise sequencing of steps
Climate risk screening and project impact assessment
vary, many comparable institutions, including multilateral
together establish the climate change vulnerability
development banks and bilateral development agencies,
context of a project. That context informs the adaptation
apply these steps in one form or another. See Appendix 1
assessment that follows, which aims to identify those
for a glossary of key terms used in Figure 1 and throughout
measures best suited to reduce climate vulnerability,
the note.
thereby establishing a direct link between specific project
The first phase of the process is climate risk screening. activities and the overall objective of reducing climate
IsDB plans to begin using Acclimatise Aware, a climate risk vulnerability. The sections that follow discuss project
screening tool, for this phase. It will use Aware at the early
3
impact and adaptation assessments in greater detail.
concept stage for all projects involving physical assets.
In addition to generating an overall climate risk ranking,
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 5FIGURE 1: CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
CLIMATE RISK SCREENING
Preliminary, rapid assessment of the risks posed to a planned project as a result of climate change.
Tools and methodologies used include Acclimatise, Aware; World Bank, Climate and Disaster Risk
Screening Tool; International Institute for Sustainable Development, Community-Based Risk
Screening Tool—Adaptation & Livelihoods (CRiSTAL).
PROJECT IMPACT ASSESSMENT
• Identify the climatic variables of interest for the project. These may
include meteorological (e.g., temperature, precipitation); hydrologic
(e.g., runoff volume, groundwater recharge, soil moisture); and other
environmental (e.g., sea-level rise) variables. When their impacts are
harmful, these variables are referred to as climate hazards.
ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT
• Establish • Identify • Use a multi-criteria approach to appraise adaptation
adaptation adaptation options (e.g., functional effectiveness, technical feasibility,
objective. options. affordability, stakeholder acceptability, etc.).
IMPLEMENTATION
• Establish implementation arrangements for selected adaptation measures (determine roles and
responsibilities; identify needs for technical support and capacity building, etc.).
Sources: ADB 2014; ADB 2012; USAID 2015; GIZ 2014
6 | Islamic Development Bank• Identify the changes in environmental • Determine the vulnerability of different
conditions (or system impacts) likely project components to changes in
to follow from changes in the above environmental conditions. Vulnerability
variables (e.g., reduced raw water is a function of th project’s exposure, This
quality, increased evapotranspiration, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to a guidance
increased frequency of floods). specific climate hazard. note can
help to
inform
these
steps.
• Conduct economic • Select • Stakeholder engagement is critical to all
assessment of shortlisted adaptation of these steps.
adaptation options. strategy.
• Provide for ongoing monitoring and evaluation.
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 74. Identifying Potential Impacts and Adaptation Options
As explained above, the Aware climate risk screening tool location-specific climate information (USAID 2017).6
identifies the key climate risk areas based on the project’s Additionally, the web mapping tool, Aqueduct Commodities,
type and location. Project teams can use this information, provides more localized information on water scarcity
along with expert judgment and other available climate data, and agricultural production (WRI). From there, project
to determine the climate hazards most likely to be relevant teams can begin to evaluate the likely impacts and potential
for a project. The World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge adaptation responses. This section provides tools to
Portal and The Nature Conservancy’s Climate Wizard
4 5
support this evaluation.
are two examples of publicly available tools for identifying
Identifying Potential Impacts
The decision trees below can guide project teams in note there is considerable uncertainty about the extent
identifying potential climate vulnerabilities of projects of potential benefits and how different climate drivers
involving crop production (Figure 2); livestock production will interact. One example is the carbon dioxide (CO2)
(Figure 3); aquaculture (Figure 4); postharvest elements of fertilization effect referenced above: elevated atmospheric
the food value chain (Figure 5); and rural housing (Figure CO2 may increase the productivity of some crops, but the
6). For example, if the Aware tool flags sea-level rise as a extent of potential production gains from CO2 fertilization
key risk area for a food processing facility project, a project remains uncertain (World Bank 2009). Moreover, the net
team would see that coastal inundation and erosion could effect of such gains and potential losses associated with
physically damage the facility, causing delays or increasing other climate drivers is highly uncertain. For instance, it is
maintenance requirements. It could also cause power possible that in some regions, increased yields stemming
outages, which would disrupt facility operations from CO2 fertilization will be offset by elevated temperatures
(see Figure 5). (World Bank 2009). There is also evidence to suggest that
elevated atmospheric CO2 can reduce the nutritional quality
However, project teams must be aware of several important
of some crops, so some increases in yield could also be
caveats in using the decision trees. First, the trees
effectively offset by diminished nutritional value (Vermeulen et
provide a generalized overview of potential impacts, but
al. 2014). Similarly, warmer temperatures and longer growing
climate change is likely to affect the agriculture and rural
seasons may increase productivity in some high-latitude
development sectors in diverse and highly context-specific
and high-altitude regions, but changes in other climate
ways (Fanzo et al. 2018). Impacts, such as reductions in crop
conditions, such as declining rainfall, could temper potential
yield, are likely to vary across different geographies and
gains (World Bank 2009).
agro-ecological zones, different production systems, and
different socioeconomic contexts (Fanzo et al. 2018). Finally, the decision trees primarily focus on the potential
physical impacts of climate change, but climate change
Second, the different climate drivers cannot be viewed in
could impact the agriculture and rural development sectors
isolation. Instead, project teams must consider how the
in diverse ways, including direct and indirect physical
various drivers interact with each other. Some climate
impacts and a variety of nonphysical impacts. Potential
drivers may amplify one another, while others counteract
nonphysical impacts include market, legal, employment,
one another (FAO 2018). At the same time, a variety of
and reputational impacts. Climate change could cause
nonclimate factors, such as population growth, land-
shifts in demand or changes in comparative advantage
use change, economic development, and urbanization,
across regions. For instance, rising temperatures and
pose significant challenges to the agriculture and rural
extreme heat could prompt increased refrigeration
development sectors (USAID 2014). In many instances, these
requirements in postharvest storage and distribution
nonclimate stressors interact with climate stressors in
(Brown et al. 2015). It could also affect labor markets, altering
similarly complex ways (USAID 2014). For example, population
supply or demand for rural labor. Changing conditions could
growth and rising incomes are likely to drive up future
also lead to revised regulatory requirements. For example,
global food demand as changing climate conditions strain
increased risk of mycotoxin contamination (Stathers et al. 2013)7
agricultural productivity (FAO 2016).
in stored products during rising temperatures could lead to
Third, some agricultural production may benefit from more stringent phytosanitary requirements for cross-border
certain climate drivers. Some of these potential benefits marketing of goods (Stathers et al. 2013).
are highlighted in the decision trees, but it is important to
8 | Islamic Development BankBecause nonphysical impacts tend to be context- and That said, upon identifying potential physical project
project-specific, they are not the focus below. The precise vulnerabilities, project teams should consider whether
legal impacts, for example, will depend entirely on the legal such vulnerabilities could have follow-on, nonphysical
and regulatory framework in the project country or the consequences for a particular project.
specific contractual arrangements underlying a project.
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 9FIGURE 2: DECISION TREE FOR CROP PRODUCTION PROJE
CLIMATE HAZARD
Atmospheric CO2 increase Temperature increase
SYSTEM IMPACTS
Increased Increased incidence of Potential changes in distribution and
incidence of some pathogens and abundance of some insects,
some weeds other plant pests pollinators, and natural enemies of
plant pests
PROJECT VULNERABILITIES
Increased pest pressure and risk Potential lack of pollinators Increased
of plant diseases; productivity or mismatch between evaporative losses
decline or crop losses; increased crop flowering periods from irrigation
use of pesticides; increased labor and active periods of delivery
demand for weeding pollinators infrastructure
and bare soil
ADAPTATION OPTIONS
PAdopt improved integrated PMonitor and evaluate PImprove water
pest and disease management pollinators to better collection,
techniques understand climate risks to storage, and
PAdopt more disease resistant the services they provide distribution
varieties; provide access to and PIdentify and preserve the hardware to
training on new varieties natural habitats of wild reduce water
pollinator species losses (e.g., line
PImprove capacity for
canals, cover
surveillance and early detection PDevelop corridors of
channels, use
of pest invasions suitable habitats that
piping)
ensure food and nesting
PIncrease diversity of crops to PMinimize
resources are available for
hedge against risk of individual evaporative
pollinators
failure; diversify through losses from
intercropping PDiversify sources of income;
bare soils
pursue nonfarm income-
PDiversify sources of income; (e.g., organic or
generating activities
pursue nonfarm income- plastic
generating activities mulching)
10 | Islamic Development BankECTS (page 1)
Shifts in agroclimatic Increased Higher mean growing season Rising winter
zones; changes in crop evapotranspiration temperatures; more frequent temperatures; reduced
phenology rates heat waves and temperature occurrence of frost
extremes
Increased crop water Increased heat stress may reduce Longer growing seasons and possible
demand;more rapid productivity and increase risk of crop increased productivity in some areas;
depletion of soil moisture; failure or decrease labor productivity/ cropping may become feasible in
increased risk of water health; decreased suitability of some previously unsuitable areas
deficit crops for some regions
PIdentify supplemental sources of irrigation water for irrigated PAdopt crop species or varieties with
systems greater heat tolerance; provide access
PImplement irrigation systems in previously rainfed systems to and training on new varieties
PEnhance soil moisture retention (e.g., conservation agriculture, PIncrease diversity of crops to hedge
mulching, terracing, cover cropping) against risk of individual crop failure
PImplement conservation agriculture and other practices to improve PAlter planting dates to better
soil quality and enhance soil moisture retention (e.g., cover crops, match seasonal conditions to crop
crop rotation, balanced use of fertilizers and manure) characteristics (e.g., earlier planting
to reduce exposure to mid-summer
PImplement agroforestry systems to increase water infiltration and
extreme heat)
reduce erosion
PImplement agroforestry or other
PSwitch to less water-intensive crops or drought-resistant varieties;
intercropping systems to provide
provide access to and training on new varieties
shade and reduce temperature
PAlter planting dates to better match seasonal conditions to crop
PEvaluate alternative uses of crop land
characteristics
PDiversify sources of income; pursue
PImplement weed control techniques to reduce competition for
nonfarm income-generating activities
water and transpiration losses by weeds
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 11FIGURE 2: DECISION TREE FOR CROP PRODUCTION PROJE
CLIMATE HAZARD
Decreasing precipitation and drought Sea-level rise and
storm surge
SYSTEM IMPACTS
Soil moisture depletion; increased erosion, Diminished rainfall, reduced
land degradation, and desertification streamflow and inflows to
reservoirs and aquifers
PROJECT VULNERABILITIES
Reduced soil quality; Water supply sufficiency Increased salinity of water and
loss of arable land due and reliability reduced; soils in coastal areas; reduced
to land degradation productivity decline or freshwater availability;
and wind erosion crop failure productivity decline or crop
failure; loss of arable land
ADAPTATION OPTIONS
Irrigated & Rainfield Systems Irrigated Systems
PImplement conservation agriculture and PImprove water collection, storage,
other practices to improve soil quality and distribution hardware to reduce
and enhance soil moisture retention water losses (e.g., line canals, cover
(e.g., crop rotation; balanced use of channels, use piping)
fertilizers and manure; cover cropping; PAdopt irrigation technologies and
terracing, etc.) practices that use less water (e.g.,
PImplement agroforestry systems to drip irrigation, improved irrigation
increase water infiltration and reduce scheduling, deficit irrigation)
erosion PImplement demand-management
PAdopt drought-resistant varieties; policies (e.g., overconsumption water
provide access to and training on new tariffs, temporary drought surcharge
varieties rates)
PExplore opportunities to share water PIdentify supplemental sources of
across uses (e.g., integrated crop- irrigation water (e.g., rainwater
aquaculture systems) harvesting, reuse of marginal water
PAlter planting dates to better sources)
Rainfield Systems
match seasonal conditions to crop
characteristics PProvide access to supplementary
irrigation where possible and
PImplement weed control techniques
sustainable
to reduce competition for water and
transpiration losses by weeds
12 | Islamic Development BankECTS (page 2)
Increase in precipitation or increased frequency of extreme
precipitation events
Saltwater Increased Increased runoff; Increased incidence of weeds, insects,
intrusion flood risk increased soil erosion pathogens, and other plant pests
Damage to crops; damage Decreased soil quality could limit Increased pest pressure
to the irrigation or drainage yields; increased pollution and and risk of plant diseases;
infrastructure; field siltation of water storage areas could productivity decline or crop
waterlogging; inability to limit availability of water for irrigation losses; increased use of
cultivate land; delays in planting pesticides
or harvesting
PAdopt more saline- PAdopt flood-resistant or short- PEnhance soil PAdopt improved
tolerant crop duration crop varieties; provide stability and integrated pest-
varieties; provide access to and training on new productivity (e.g., and disease-
access to and varieties conservation management
training on new PIncrease water capture and agriculture, techniques
varieties storage to avert flooding mulching, cover PAdopt more disease-
PLimit saltwater cropping) resistant varieties;
PIncrease flood protections using
intrusion (e.g., built and/or green infrastructure PBuild structures provide access to
establish physical (e.g., earth and training on new
PImprove climate data collection
or hydraulic barrier, bunds, terraces, varieties
and forecasting; implement early
aquifer recharge) buffer strips) to PImprove capacity
warning systems
PIdentify alternative limit runoff and for surveillance and
PIncorporate flood risk into erosion
sources of irrigation early detection of
infrastructure design; climate-
water PImplement pest invasions
proof irrigation infrastructure
PConsider alternative agroforestry PIncrease diversity
PImprove drainage systems (e.g., systems to
uses of land (e.g., of crops to hedge
drainage tiles, pumps) reduce soil
aquaculture) against risk of
PDesilt drainage canals and erosion and
individual crop
strengthen bunds runoff
failure
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 13FIGURE 3: DECISION TREE FOR LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION P
CLIMATE HAZARD
Atmospheric CO2 increase Decreasing precipitation and drought
SYSTEM IMPACTS
Change in p
asture Water scarcity Saltwater Increased flood risk
composition intrusion
PROJECT VULNERABILITIES
Reduced freshwater Reduced a vailability o f pasture Flooding could
availability (drinking and and f eed supplies; d ecreased physically harm
servicing water) nutritional quality o f forage; livestock or damage
potential overgrazing supporting equipment
and facilities
ADAPTATION OPTIONS
PIdentify alternative PAdjust stocking densities to feed availability
sources of water supply PImplement system of rotational grazing
(e.g., boreholes, rainwater
PPurchase supplementary feed
harvesting)
PBreed feed crops and forages for heat/drought/
PPromote water-use
salinity tolerance
efficiency for these and
competing water uses PImplement agroforestry with fodder trees and
legume shrubs to provide alternative feed resources,
PProtect water quality shade, and retain water
(e.g., measures to limit
saltwater intrusion) PEmploy crop residue management techniques
(e.g., conservation tillage, mulching)
PAdopt systems to
manage competing water PIrrigation feed crops and grasslands
uses (including conflict- PRehabilitate degraded grassland
management system) PImplement feed banks for livestock during drought
PAdopt community-level rules to manage communal
grazing/rangeland
14 | Islamic Development BankPROJECTS
Sea-level r ise and storm surge Increase in precipitation Temperature increase
or increased frequency of
extreme precipitation events
Higher mean growing season Rising winter Increased prevalence of certain
temperatures; more frequent temperatures; reduced livestock pathogens and p
arasites;
heat waves and temperature extremes occurrence o f frost expanded distribution of vectors
Heat stress c an lead to Longer growing seasons Increased r isk of disease; increased
diminished feed intake; and p ossible increased use of veterinary medicines
declining rates of growth, productivity in some areas;
survival, and reproduction; decreased risk of harm from
and reduced production of extreme cold
meat, milk, eggs
PIncrease flood PSwitch to more heat-tolerant species PSwitch to more disease-resistant species
protections, PAdopt/increase selective breeding to PAdopt/increase selective breeding to
including built improve heat tolerance improve resistance to disease
and/or green
PImplement feeding modifications that PUpgrade animal housing structure for
infrastructure
reduce metabolic heat build up better pest and disease management
PIntegrate flood
PConstruct shade structures or provide PAdopt appropriate disease surveillance
management
cooling/insulation in enclosed facilities and control measures
procedures (e.g.,
to reduce livestock exposure to PProvide training on livestock disease
forecasting and
extreme temperatures prevention and control
early warning
systems) in PDiversify sources of income; pursue PDiversify sources of income; pursue
operational planning nonfarm income-generating activities nonfarm income-generating activities
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 15FIGURE 4: DECISION TREE AQUACULTURE PROJECTS (pag
CLIMATE HAZARD
Atmospheric CO2 increase Temperature
increase
SYSTEM IMPACTS
Ocean acidification Higher temperatures may reduce the abundance or alter
the ranges of some capture fisheries
PROJECT VULNERABILITIES
Adverse effects on Potential scarcity Potential Warming may
shell formation of of raw materials scarcity of increase growth and
cultured mollusks and used for feed wild seed productivity in some
crustaceans; adverse in aquaculture; for capture- areas
effects on pearl rising prices for based
development feed aquaculture
ADAPTATION OPTIONS
PSwitch farmed species or strains PFind fishmeal and fish oil PImplement
(e.g., away from shell-bearing replacement system for
organisms) PSwitch to terrestrial-based hatchery-
PSwitch to freshwater aquaculture feeds produced/
propagated
PClose farms or relocate to other PImprove feed-management
seed
production zones practices
PPromote
PFor pearls, culture in deeper waters PShift to noncarnivores or
more
or in new sites; Increase R&D for nonfed species
efficient use
low pH tolerant strains
of available
seed
16 | Islamic Development Bankge 1)
Higher water temperatures; increased stratification of Increased prevalence and shifts in the distribution
water column and oxygen depletion of pathogens and parasites
Increased heat stress could decrease Increased incidence of Increased risk of disease; increased
productivity and growth and increase harmful algal bloom that mortality of stock
susceptibility to disease; species with release toxins and deplete
narrow thermal range may no longer oxygen levels; increased
be farmed in some places mortality of stock
PFarm species or strains with higher thermal tolerance; PIncrease environmental, food safety, and
selective breeding to improve heat tolerance quality monitoring in aquaculture facilities;
PClose farms or relocate to cooler areas improve disease-surveillance systems
PFor pond systems, deepen ponds PSite facilities in areas less vulnerable to
eutrophication and harmful algal blooms
PAdjust crop calendars to account for higher temperature (i.e.,
moving practices to earlier/later to avoid temperature peaks) PFarm species and/or strains that tolerate low
dissolved oxygen levels
PConstruct shade structures or plant shade trees to reduce
thermal stress PDiversify species or product range to hedge
against risk of individual stock failure
PDiversify income-generating activities to
include nonaquaculture-related activities
PInvest in depuration facilities
PPromote best management practices and
biosecurity measures to reduce risk of
disease
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 17FIGURE 4: DECISION TREE AQUACULTURE PROJECTS (pag
CLIMATE HAZARD
Decreasing precipitation and drought Sea-level rise and storm surge
SYSTEM IMPACTS
Reduced water levels, flow rates, and Saltwater intrusion Coastal inundation and
overall water availability erosion
PROJECT VULNERABILITIES
Limited access to Some water bodies may become Increased salinity could
water for farming or unsuitable for aquaculture if water lower growth, increase
for use in producing quality is diminished by reduced mortality, or render
feed; higher cost to inflow or if retention periods are some systems
artificially maintain shorter than the minimum period unsuitable for culture of
pond levels needed to attain marketable size freshwater species
ADAPTATION OPTIONS
PImprove water-use efficiency PUse of fast PShift to more saline-tolerant
PExplore opportunities to growing fish strains or species
share water across uses species PLimit saltwater intrusion
(e.g., integrated aquaculture/ PConsider risk in (e.g., establish physical or
agriculture systems, siting facilities; hydraulic barrier, aquifer
aquaponics) relocate to recharge, coastal
PSwitch to feed ingredients lower-risk areas groundwater monitoring,
that require less water to be etc.)
produced PClose farms or relocate
PSwitch from pond aquaculture further upstream
to other nonconsumptive water
use aquaculture
18 | Islamic Development Bankge 2)
Increase in precipitation or increased frequency of extreme
precipitation events
Increased flood risk Extreme winds associated with Increased runoff and transport of pathogens
storms/hurricanes and other pollutants; reduced water quality
Saline intrusion or coastal Loss of intertidal areas that Physical damage to Increased
erosion that make act as nursery grounds and aquaculture facilities and pollution
areas unsuitable for provide coastal protection, equipment, loss of stock, and could lead
agriculture could create increasing exposure mass release with potential to reduced
new opportunities for to storms and limiting impacts on biodiversity; loss productivity
aquaculture availability of seed of livelihoods of freshwater
aquaculture
PIncrease protection, PIncrease flood protections near facilities, including build PShift to species
restoration, and and/or green infrastructure (e.g., rasied dykes in flood-prone with higher
enhancement of pond systems or constructed wetlands) tolerance to poor
wetlands and coastal PImplement improved early warning and forecasting systems water quality
forests PReduce land-
PImprove design to minimize mass release
PAdopt and implement (e.g., nylon netting) based sources
living shoreline of pollution (e.g.,
PEncourage use of indigenous species to minimize impacts
approach agricultural and
on biodiversity
PSwitch to inland urban runoff)
PInvest in stronger facilities and equipment (e.g., cages and
aquaculture PMonitor water
mooring systems)
PClose farms or relocate to less exposed areas (e.g., quality
upstream, protected bays) PDiversify income-
PDiversity income-generating activities to include generating
activities
nonaquaculture-related activities
to include
nonaquaculture-
related activities
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 19FIGURE 5: DECISION TREE FOR POSTHARVEST SUPPLY CH
CLIMATE HAZARD
Sea-level rise and storm surge Increase in precipitation or increased frequency
of extreme precipitation events
SYSTEM IMPACTS
Coastal Increased Extreme winds Increased Increased
inundation flood risk associated variability/ incidence of
and erosion with storms/ unpredictability in insects, pathogens,
hurricanes rainfall patterns and other pests
PROJECT VULNERABILITIES
Physical damage to storage, Rain exposure Increased risk of spoilage or
processing, and distribution during drying or contamination (e.g., aflatoxin)
facilities/systems, causing delays, storage could in storage; increased storage
and increased maintenance increase risk losses due to insects;
requirements; disruption to of spoilage or increased refrigeration needs,
operations due to power outages contamination which increase costs
ADAPTATION OPTIONS
PIncrease flood protections near facilities, including built and/or green PProtect
infrastructure drying
PIncreased wind/squall protection products
from rain
PIntegrate flood-risk, risk of high winds into facility design (e.g., elevate
using
key components, use water-resistant materials) covered
PRelocate existing or planned facilities to lower-risk areas drying
PDevelop contingency plans structures
PImplement early warning systems PAdopt
improved
PInvest in improved storage (e.g., metal silos, water-tight containers
drying
PSwitch to portable storage structures that can be moved in case of practices
flood
PImprove coordination within value chain to minimize transportation
distances
PRelocate critical hubs to lower-risk areas
PSee Transport Sector Guidance Note for detail on distribution system
adaptations
20 | Islamic Development BankHAIN PROJECTS
Atmospheric CO2 Temperature increase Decrease in precipitation and drought
increase
Shifting agroclimatic Higher mean and extreme Increased Reduced surface water levels,
zones cause poleward temperatures; more wildfire risk stream flows; increased water
shift in where crops are frequent heat waves scarcity
produced
Need to adjust Extreme heat can damage Potential distribution Decreased
processing, transportation infrastructure disruptions; reduced availability and
packaging, distribution (e.g., rail tracks and roads); visibility requires road reliability of
infrastructure to disruption, delays, and or airport closures; water for use in
reflect production increased maintenance decreased navigability processing
shifts requirements of inland waterways
PInvest in improved storage (e.g., metal PUse crop PImprove PRelocate existing or
silos, hermetically sealed bags) suitability coordination panned processing
PIncrease smallholder access to maps and within value facilities to less drought-
improved storage facilities (e.g., climate chain to minimize prone area
through collective storage facilities) projections to transportation PIncrease water storage
PImprove store hygiene, maintenance, inform siting distances
capacity (e.g., water
and monitoring skills of processing, PDevelop
PShade storage containers or keep them packaging, and contingency plans harvesting, communal
cool in indoor places distribution PSee Transport ponds)
PTreat grain to be stored for more infrastructure Sector Guidance PIntroduce demand-side
than 3 months with appropriate grain Note for additional water efficiency measures
protectant detail
PImprove technology for early control
and detection (e.g., rapid testing kids
foodborne risks)
PImprove efficiency of cooling systems
to reduce storage/energy costs
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 21FIGURE 6: DECISION TREE FOR RURAL HOUSING PROJECT
CLIMATE HAZARD
Sea-level rise and storm surge Increase frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events
SYSTEM IMPACTS
Coastal Increased flood Increased More frequent heat waves and
inundation and risk; potential risk risk of temperature extremes; increased
erosion of landslides/ tropical overnight temperature minimums;
mudslides cyclones longer, more intense hot season
PROJECT VULNERABILITIES
Sanitation facilities may be Flooding can Tropical cyclones can
flooded or filled with silt, damage or destroy damage or destroy homes,
which could cause structural houses, threaten threaten safety of residents,
damage, environmental safety of residents, and displace communities
contamination, and harmful and displace
health impacts communities
ADAPTATION OPTIONS
See PRelocate existing communities to or site PSite planning: relocate to
Water new communities in lower-risk areas lower-risk areas; site housing
Sector PUse flood-resilient design features (e.g., to reduce wind pressure
Guidance elevate the plinth and door thresholds; (e.g., use of nonparallel
Note use reinforced building materials; elevate roads, unequal distribution
electrical equipment) of houses)
PIncrease water capture and storage (e.g., PIncrease structural stability;
retention ponds, infiltration trenches, incorporate posts, beams,
rainwater harvesting) and roof reinforcement into
PReduce impervious paving; plan the structure; ensure that all
developments in a way that leaves building components are
natural vegetation in place securely connected;
PInvest in improved drainage strengthen foundations of
PIncrease flood protections near housing structures; used
communities, including build and/or reinforced windows
green infrastructure PInclude wind breaks in
PImplement early warning systems and community design
ensure access to emergency shelter PImplement early warning
PImplement erosion and sedimentation systems and ensure access
control measures (e.g., swales, to emergency shelter
sedimentation pits, vegetation growth) PInclude a solid, safe failure
room in building design
Sources (Figures 2-6): ADB 2012; FAO 2016; FAO 2011; FAO 2017; Fanzo et al. 2018; IFPRI 2017; Lipper et al. 2018; Rojas-Downing et al. 2017;
Thornton et al. 2015; Cochraine et al. 2009; IFAD 2014; Beuno and Soto 2017; Brown et al. 2015; Stathers et al. 2013; Khan et al. 2014;
Tran et al. 2014; Sabbag 2013; Barnett et al. 2013; USAID 2013a; World Bank 2015; World Bank 2009.
22 | Islamic Development BankTS
Temperature increase Decrease in precipitation and drought
Increased risk Reduced surface water Altered soil and rock conditions may increase
of wildfire levels, stream flows; ground movement or differential settlement
increased water scarcity
Heat stress can Increased risk of Reduced freshwater Damage to building foundation
cause heat-related loss of homes availability for and facade from ground
illnesses and loss of from fire household use movement and subsidence
productivity
PIncorporate consideration of PRelocate away from PIncrease PSite new or relocate
thermal comfort into design, fire-prone areas water existing communities to
including building orientation PIncorporate fire- capture and lower-risk areas
and materials used resistant design storage PEnhance structural
PImprove thermal features and materials PDiversify engineering standards to
performance by insulating in buildings water supply
account for risk
roofs and external walls, PEstablish or improve options (e.g.,
using light colored or early-warning and recycling,
reflective roofing material, rapid-response rainwater
or including a false ceiling/ systems for fire harvesting)
radiant barrier PEstablish fuel breaks PIncrease
PMaximize natural ventilation to slow fire spread water-use
PIncrease shading, including PImplement forest/ efficiency
window shading vegetation (e.g., low-
PPlant trees and incorporate management flow toilets)
green spaces into planning measures to
reduce risk
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 23Identifying Adaptation Options
Once a project team determines potential project nonexhaustive list of potential adaptation options for
vulnerabilities, it can proceed to identifying possible addressing particular climate impacts.
adaptation solutions. An important preliminary step is defining
Adaptation is context-specific, and the adaptation options
the objective of adaptation. In setting objectives, project teams
identified in the decision trees will not be applicable or
should consider what vulnerabilities they seek to address and
appropriate in all cases. For example, some may be technically
what their desired outcomes are. Seeking input from relevant
infeasible in the project location. Others may not be
stakeholders at this stage and throughout the process will
sustainable due to high operational or maintenance costs. The
improve the likelihood that the ultimate adaptation decisions
steps described in Section 5 on appraising adaptation options
are deemed successful (UK Climate Impacts Programme 2007).
will help project teams determine the appropriateness of
Ideally, the objective would include specific timelines and different adaptation options for particular projects.
measurable thresholds for what would and would not be
Additionally, because this guidance applies to projects
considered successful adaptation. For example, the objective
involving physical assets, many of the options identified
could be to achieve a certain level of flood protection (e.g.,
are structural or physical adaptation options. Such options
protect facility from physical damage by 100-year flood event
are often referred to as “hard” adaptation options. They
or ensure facility remains fully operational during 50-year flood
involve on-the-ground physical infrastructure and technical
event) or a certain degree of resilience (e.g., ensure facility can
equipment, like upgraded irrigation systems or structural
resume operations within five days of a 100-year flood event)
flood protections. Structural adaptation options also include
by a certain date.
a variety of ecosystem- or nature-based adaptation measures
Once the team defines its adaptation objectives, it should (Noble et al. 2014). There are also a variety of nonstructural (or
strive to compile a wide range of measures to meet “soft”) adaptation options. See Box 1 for more detail on soft
those objectives. The above decision trees offer an initial, adaptation options.
Box 1 | Soft Adaptation Options
Soft adaptation encompasses management, Other examples of soft adaptation measures
operational, or policy changes, as well as capacity- include policy measures, such as modifying
building and knowledge-management activities. building codes and standards for rural housing or
Many soft adaptation measures are not specific infrastructure to increase their resilience; capacity-
to a particular subsector or category of project building efforts, like establishment of field schools
and, instead, are sensible across a wide range of to provide training on integrated pest management
projects. For example, improved data collection or on the use of new, more resilient seed varieties;
and forecasting capabilities, climate information institutional changes to support mainstreaming
services, and early warning systems may be critical consideration of climate change into development
to the success of projects in any of the subsectors and sector strategies; and provision of other
this note covers. services, like increasing farmer access to market
information and transport options.
Building resilience often requires a combination of hard As such, an integrated, ecosystem-based approach is needed
and soft adaptation measures, as well as engineered and (DuBois et al. 2012). Consulting with a variety of stakeholders
nature-based infrastructure options (GEF-UNEP 2017). As such, (including community and nongovernmental organizations,
in identifying adaptation options, project teams should environmental specialists, engineers, vulnerable populations,
consider a wide range of options. Moreover, the varied and and others) can help to identify a comprehensive list of
complex ways agricultural systems interact with other sectors adaptation options (ADB 2017a).
and systems means that adopting a narrow, sector-based
Finally, in identifying adaptation options, project teams
approach to adaptation may not be appropriate. Adaptation
should remember that adaptation measures will ideally be
measures for one sector or subsector may indirectly affect
aligned with existing country or sector resilience plans.
another sector or subsector, by impacting the ecosystems,
water resources, or biodiversity on which it relies, for example.
24 | Islamic Development BankAppraising Adaptation Options
5.
A variety of approaches are available for evaluating and mentioned above, includes location-specific climate data
prioritizing among adaptation options.8 One such approach, and references to a variety of other climate data sources,
described below, is to use multi-criteria analysis to identify and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
a short list of preferred adaptation options, followed by a Data Distribution Centre10 provides general guidance on
more detailed, quantitative assessment of those options. 9
the use of scenarios and data in adaptation assessments.
Additional analysis, including simulation modeling, may
At the outset, assessing the performance of different
be required to determine how changes in primary climatic
adaptation measures, whether in qualitative or quantitative
and hydrological variables can lead to more complex
terms, requires an understanding of future climate
phenomena, such as drought or flooding (ADB 2017b). Finally,
conditions. The adaptation options identified in the above
project teams can judge project performance in the context
decision trees vary widely in cost. The level of investment
of probable future conditions.
in adaptation that is economically justified will depend
on the severity of potential impacts within the relevant Although climate projections are an imperfect
time horizon. Accordingly, project teams must develop representation of reality, they allow project teams to explore
climate change scenarios representing plausible future how the future may unfold and how the project will perform
states (ADB 2017b). They first identify the climatic and under different conditions. That said, uncertainty about
hydrological variables most relevant to project design. future climate conditions creates important methodological
They can then use climate model projections, analysis challenges for adaptation decision-making, so this
of historic data, available studies, and expert judgment section concludes with a brief discussion of the
to develop assumptions about how those variables are importance of incorporating uncertainty into appraisal
likely to change over the project’s life span (ADB 2017b). of adaptation options.
The World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal,
Multi-Criteria Analysis
Multi-criteria analysis allows for a qualitative and • Stakeholder acceptability
comparative assessment of different adaptation options. »» Does the measure have cultural, economic, or
It is often used to assess factors that are not easily environmental effects that could impact stakeholder
quantifiable in monetary terms or during preliminary stages or community acceptance?
when the precise cost implications of various options have
• Ease of implementation
yet to be developed (USAID 2015). Multi-criteria analysis
»» Are there factors (e.g., those related to human capital,
should be conducted in a participatory manner that seeks
availability of materials, or existing technical skills)
input from the external stakeholders likely to be affected by
that may impede implementation?
the project and any potential adaptation measures
(Trevor et al. 2011). • Flexibility/robustness
»» How effective will the measure be in the face of
The project team would first identify the appropriate criteria
uncertain future conditions?
for the given project. Possible criteria include the following
(USAID 2015; European Commission 2013; Weiland and Troltzsch 2015):
• Cobenefits
»» Does the measure support other climate-related
• Functional effectiveness
(e.g., carbon sequestration) or development
»» Does the adaptation measure accomplish the objectives (e.g., economic security, private sector
desired outcome? development, institutional strengthening)?
»» Does it do so within an acceptable timeframe? The project team would then agree on a scale or metric
• Technical feasibility for each criterion. In some cases, quantitative metrics,
»» Is the measure technically feasible in the like cost, may be available. In others, qualitative metrics
project location? can be translated into a numerical form (e.g., on a 1 to 5
scale) (USAID 2013b; Van Ierland et al. 2013). Project teams could
• Affordability
also attach different weights to different criteria to reflect
»» Are the upfront costs of the measure affordable? relative importance (USAID 2013b).
»» Are operations and maintenance costs of the
Next, the project team would score projects incorporating
measure affordable?
the different adaptation alternatives against each of the
Agricultural & Rural Development Sectors Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Note | 25criteria. As described above, the performance of different Finally, the project team would compare the weight-adjusted
options will depend on projected climate conditions. For scores of the various alternatives (UNFCCC 2011). The
example, evaluating the functional effectiveness of a project team could use the outcome to produce a short
planned shoreline protection measure would require sea- list of preferred options that perform best against the
level-rise projections for the lifetime of the project. selected criteria.
Detailed Economic Assessment
The remaining options can then be evaluated in greater valuation should be used to estimate nonmarket costs and
detail using a quantitative economic assessment. benefits, where possible (UNFCCC 2011). Contingent valuation
Two possible techniques for economic assessment of uses the stated preferences of impacted individuals to
adaptation options are cost-benefit analysis and cost- estimate the economic value of nonmarket goods, like
effectiveness analysis (GIZ 2013; UNFCCC 2011). ecosystem services. For example, contingent valuation
could be used to estimate the monetary value of an artificial
• Cost-benefit analysis
wetland’s benefit to water quality by asking impacted
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) involves quantifying (in present- individuals how much they would be willing to pay for an
value terms) and comparing the costs and benefits of an equivalent water quality improvement.
adaptation investment to determine its likely efficiency
Having quantified all costs and benefits, project teams
(UNFCCC 2011). CBA is generally the preferred technique,
discount them to present value and aggregate them to
so long as all costs and benefits of adaptation can be
compute the net present value (NPV) of each alternative.
expressed in monetary terms (GIZ 2013). Adaptation costs
The NPVs of different adaptation options can then be
include direct costs, like initial investment and operating
compared to identify the most suitable option or options.
costs, as well as any indirect costs, like transitional costs or
social welfare losses (UNFCCC 2011). • Cost-effectiveness analysis
Adaptation benefits include benefits accrued and losses Cost-effectiveness analysis identifies the least cost option
avoided as a result of an adaptation measure (IPCC 2007). or set of options for achieving adaptation objectives
As such, adaptation benefits are assessed relative to a (UNFCCC 2011). It can be applied when adaptation benefits are
project baseline (i.e., the project without adaptation).11 The difficult to quantify and express in monetary terms.12 Cost-
appropriate project baseline and net benefits of different effectiveness analysis may also be appropriate in situations
adaptation options relative to that baseline are ultimately where the issue is not whether to adopt adaptation
dependent on future climate conditions. Project teams measures but rather how to achieve a certain level of
first assess the costs and benefits of the project baseline adaptation in the most cost-effective way.
under projected climate conditions. Where multiple future
Like cost-benefit analysis, this technique requires planners
scenarios are plausible, there would be multiple baselines
to quantify (in monetary terms) the various costs of
(European Commission 2013). They then assess the net benefits
adaptation options. Project teams quantify all costs,
of various adaptation alternatives relative to
discount them to present value, and aggregate them. Rather
the baseline(s).
than quantifying project benefits in monetary terms, project
Adaptation projects often involve impacts on things like teams quantify them in physical terms (Watkiss et al. 2013). The
public health, environmental quality, or cultural heritage. unit of measurement depends on the adaptation objective.
These sorts of nonmarket costs and benefits are difficult Project teams can then compare different options in terms
to quantify but should not be excluded from any economic of their cost effectiveness, measured as cost per unit of
analysis conducted. Instead, techniques like contingent benefit delivered.
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