Distribution Future Energy Scenarios - South West licence area westernpower.co.uk - Regen
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Distribution
Future Energy
Scenarios
South West licence area
westernpower.co.uk
Registrations from all four webinars
Future Energy Scenarios The sectors represented by the registrants for all four webinars are shown in Figure 1 and are also shown
by individual region. Participants from the energy industry and local government made up at least 50% of
each webinar, with varying levels of representation from community energy groups, academia, and
UK Networks.
South West licence area
Stakeholder consultation webinar summary report Figure 1
Registrants for all four WPD DFES consultation webinars
Scope of this report
This report collates the results of four stakeholder consultation webinars, run by Water Consumers Trade Union
Regen and WPD as part of the 2020 Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) company 1% 0%
National 1%
project. This report includes the audience comments and questions, as well as
Government
the stakeholder feedback on the questions which were asked of the audience
3%
live. These results have been grouped by theme from across the four webinars,
preceded by a summary of the webinar attendees and links to further reading.
Academia
DFES Project summary
4%
To support WPD’s strategic network investment planning, Regen has been
commissioned to undertake a distribution future energy scenario analysis for UK
the four WPD licence areas – South West, South Wales, East Midlands, and Networks
West Midlands. The scenarios analysis will look at the uptake and deployment 5%
of renewable and fossil fuel power generation, energy storage, low carbon heat,
and electric vehicles, as well as analysing planned new housing and commercial
developments. The analysis of different net zero scenarios, informed by detailed
contextual factors and stakeholder feedback, will help WPD to plan for strategic Community
investment and flexibility on the electricity distribution network. Energy industry
energy groups
37%
8%
Towards net zero
Each region in Great Britain has unique characteristics and resources, therefore
each will see unique deployment of renewable and low carbon technologies
as part of the net zero transition. This project assesses specific local factors,
for example local plans, wind speed and solar irradiance, agricultural land,
housing density and public transport provision, and projects connections to the
distribution network using the framework of the National Grid ESO ‘Future Energy Other
Scenarios’, including three net zero scenarios and one ‘non-compliant’ scenario consultancy
that does not achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 or earlier. 15%
Stakeholder engagement
A key part of this project is engagement and consultation with local stakeholders.
Regen consults with local authorities to translate local development plan data into
detailed scenarios of connections to the WPD distribution network. Developers of
generation sites that may be built out in the near term are also contacted,
to assess when and under what circumstances they may connect. Lastly,
the insights of other local stakeholders are invaluable in recognising the
Local Government
potential deployment of various other technologies such as electric vehicles
25%
and electrified heat in the near and medium term.
Energy industry Community energy groups National Government Legal
If you wish to find out more information or you have any
questions about the webinars or the DFES project, please contact: Local Government UK Networks Water company Trade union
wpdnetworkstrategy@westernpower.co.uk Other consultancy Academia Consumer Other industry
2 Stakeholder consultation webinar summary report South West licence area 3
South West
East Midlands webinar South West webinar
4.3
Audience survey result
36% Local Government 30% Energy industry
DFES stakeholder consultation average rating
1% National Government 20% Local Government
34% Energy industry 3% National Government
webinar summary report
13% Other consultancy 19% Community energy groups
9% UK Networks 15% Other consultancy Date: 15 May 2020
5% Academia
Attendees: 58 (including panellists)
3% Academia
WPD contact: wpdnetworkstrategy@westernpower.co.uk
2% Other industry 2% UK Networks
Regen contact: fmayo@regen.co.uk
2% Consumer
1% Community energy groups A link to the agenda and recordings is available at the Regen website.
1% Consumer 2% Legal
2% Other industry
The purpose of the webinar was to communicate to stakeholders in the South West region an
overview of the DFES process, what the project outcomes would look like and how they may feed
West Midlands webinar South Wales webinar into and access the data. Audience participation was also facilitated, with responses sought on the
near-term factors impacting the uptake rate and spatial distribution of low carbon technologies, and
how the unique characteristics of the licence area region would impact these.
52% Energy industry 37% Energy industry
30% Local Government 25% Local Government Oli Spink, network strategy engineer at Western Power Distribution, presented a DFES process overview
and the use of DFES data to inform where and when strategic network reinforcement may be needed under
2% National Government 10% National Government
a specific scenario. The DFES data and subsequent electrical analysis is also used to inform signposting
17% Other consultancy 12% Other consultancy and in procuring flexibility services.
4% UK Networks 6% Academia
3% Academia 6% Community energy groups
The WPD DFES interactive map was also introduced, which is available to explore here:
1% Legal 4% UK Networks www.westernpower.co.uk/distribution-future-energy-scenarios-map
1% Other industry
Ben Robertson, analyst at Regen, presented the energy generation context for the South West, showing
where and when generators had connected to the WPD network – analysis which is used in the DFES
process to inform and calibrate the spatial distribution of different generation technologies. The regional
deployment history of onshore wind was presented before the audience inputted feedback on the form
of subsidy-free business models, and near-term deployment prospects for onshore wind. The audience
also answered live questions on rooftop solar PV deployment and electrified low carbon heat uptake.
The answers to the live questions suggested that the audience thought that heat pump uptake would not
be limited to only off-gas houses in the near term, and that as a response to the declaration of a climate
emergency there could be more focus on electrified transport and a potential refusal of fossil fuel generators
in the planning stage of development.
Joe Noble, graduate analyst at Regen, presented the details of the process translating the local authorities’
local development plans into DFES data. The audience raised such documents as the draft ‘Cornwall
Climate Change Development Plan Document’, the Exeter zero carbon blueprint, and the sustainability
reporting of local housing associations, which will be reviewed as part of the DFES analysis process.
The webinar had a question and answer session between each speaker and these questions, comments,
and discussion points are summarised in the next section, categorised by theme, with a summary of how
this input will be used in the modelling going forward.
4 Stakeholder consultation webinar summary report South West licence area 5
Initial feedback
At the beginning of the webinar, participants were asked if they were previously aware of
Stakeholder feedback
the WPD DFES process, and whether they were suffering from consultation fatigue, or felt inputs into the DFES process
well-or under-engaged.
In response, 66% of those who answered were previously aware of the WPD DFES process, and 14% had The following tables present feedback from the South Wales, South West, East Midlands and West Midlands
looked at the results. Also, 77% answered that they were well-engaged, though there is scope to increase licence areas, categorised by theme. This feedback was gathered through comments or questions during
this number by improving communication of upcoming events and making the results easier to engage with the Q&A sessions, and summarises the responses to the live polls and questions across the four webinars.
so that stakeholders can feed into subsequent DFES rounds. Every comment we received during the webinars has been reviewed for the next stage of the analysis.
As part of this process of continually improving stakeholder engagement the audience were asked which
of the current WPD DFES publications were most useful to them. The audience represented a mix of
Your comments to us Our response
professions and stakeholder views, and as such each current DFES publication was useful to some.
However, the most popular was the DFES ‘in 5 minutes’ publication, followed by the WPD DFES interactive
map. The DFES ‘in 5 minutes’ are a new production for this full round, along with the technology summaries, Theme: onshore wind
and these deliverables will be continually reviewed to ensure they are most useful to local stakeholders.
You told us that developers will seek to The impact and scale of government
develop projects on a subsidy-free basis, subsidy varies by scenario. We will ensure
Were you aware of the WPD Stakeholder engagement rather than be limited by a lack of a CfD. that even in scenarios without government
Distribution Future Energy Scenarios from WPD However, national policy has also been a subsidy, subsidy-free deployment is
process before today? critical factor in the deployment of wind so far. still included.
Your responses also indicated that onshore This modelling will include onshore wind
14% wind deployment may begin to pick up in the deployment picking up in the early 2020s.
23% early 2020s.
34% Yes, I’ve
looked The majority of respondents thought that Our modelling includes analysis of wind
at the subsidy-free business models would lead farms at different scales, we will focus
results
to some very large sites being developed, projected deployment on large-scale sites
Yes, but elsewise only smaller-scale community energy and then only smaller-scale sites.
I haven’t 77% sites would be developed.
52% looked at
the results Under-engaged
No Well engaged
The majority of respondents thought that We will expand our current spatial
subsidy-free business models would lead distribution factors for wind to include
to some very large sites being developed, those developable areas in Amber NDF
elsewise only smaller-scale community energy zones too.
Which WPD DFES publications would be useful to you? sites would be developed.
29%
The majority of respondents suggested that We will assess each SSA to see how
the existing SSAs would still see deployment, development compares with indicative
25%
however some are becoming saturated and capacity as set out in the planning
22% that emphasis is beginning to move away from guidelines, and move emphasis towards
these areas. the Green and Amber NDF zones.
17%
You said that the current spatial distribution Our models do not simply rely on the
of onshore wind does not reflect the baseline, instead we complete our own
distribution of developable sites, as independent resource assessment and
Mid-Wales has been avoided by developers will ensure that areas with undeveloped
7% due to the network in the region. potential are included.
A DFES The DFES The DFES Details on the Technology
‘in 5 minutes’ dataset map methodology specific
summary document summaries
6 Stakeholder consultation webinar summary report South West licence area 7Live results from the webinars Your comments to us Our response
The figures in this section are results from questions which were asked across the four webinars.
Here, participants were asked their thoughts on the current DFES assumptions around the spatial Theme: solar PV
distribution of wind, and what types of wind farms might be most common in the future.
You suggested that solar farm deployment We will incorporate this trajectory into
Figure 1 would begin to increase again in the early our models. There are many projects with
Webinar question results regarding onshore wind spatial distribution 2020s, from 2022 onwards. accepted connection offers which could
potentially be sites of development in the
early 2020s.
Which do you agree with more?
You said that there is high potential for solar
farm deployment, which could deploy at a high
rate in the medium to long term.
12%
Cross licence area comparison:
The results from both the West and East Midlands suggested that most attendees considered
that ground-mounted solar deployment would pick up around 2022. There are many projects with
New wind farms will be limited to only an accepted connection offer, which are analysed as part of the DFES project, and this feedback
the green priority areas. will aid analysis of these projects. There was divergence in opinion regarding the longer-term
88% deployment, however. During the East Midlands webinar, 20% of attendees thought that the rate
New wind farms will be more widely spread of solar deployment would lessen after 2030, and almost 40% in the West Midlands webinar voted
across green and amber areas, following for this option. However, in both webinars, the majority voted that deployment would continue or
wind speed and network provisions increase after 2030.
Figure 2 Figure 3
Webinar question results regarding onshore wind subsidy free business models Webinar question results from the East Midlands webinar regarding the near-term deployment
prospects of ground mounted solar PV
Where will subsidy-free business models lead?
48%
When will solar farms start connecting?
2020
2030
2022.6
24%
14% 14%
A very few large A few very large sites A few very large sites then Only medium scale
wind farms (>50MW) and continued only smaller-scale PPA or (5-50MW) sites and some
and little else deployment of other sites community energy sites smaller sites
8 Stakeholder consultation webinar summary report South West licence area 9Your comments to us Our response Your comments to us Our response
Theme: energy storage Theme: domestic heat
There was support from stakeholders for all We will continue to analyse energy storage You asked what analysis of the potential uses The uptake of domestic hydrogen heating or
energy storage business models presented. deployment through the four business of hydrogen do we include in our modelling? electric heat pumps differs across the net zero
However, domestic batteries were rated the models, and we will update our projections for scenarios, and the analysis includes both.
least likely to have high deployment in the domestic batteries to reflect this feedback. However, we focus on electric heat pumps
near term. as we are reporting connections to the WPD
network.
You told us that co-located energy storage This is higher than the current national You told us that hydrogen produced in We will review this for the next round of DFES
facilities would be likely be at least 50% of the baseline average, according to data from industrial clusters could be used to and incorporate stakeholder feedback for
power capacity of the solar farm, with around the Department for Business, Energy, and generate electricity. including hydrogen peaking plants as an
a quarter of respondents suggesting the Industrial Strategy. We will increase our emerging technology by 2050.
storage sites would be 100% of the renewable projected proportional power size for
energy asset capacity or larger. co-located energy storage sites.
The majority of the respondents suggested We will incorporate these into the assumptions
that gas boilers would continue to be installed which feed our heat modelling work, keeping
You told us that energy storage technologies We will review this for the next round of DFES in new homes up until 2025, however a gas boiler deployment high in new builds out
other than lithium-ion and solid state and incorporate stakeholder feedback for significant minority thought that the rate would to 2025.
batteries could be deployed in the future. which technologies we could include. fall towards 2025.
This included liquid or compressed air
storage, power-to-gas sites, and small-scale
pumped hydro. The majority of respondents suggested that We will incorporate this into our spatial
though new homes and off-gas areas would modelling, focussing most deployment in the
receive higher heat pump installation rates, early years in off-gas areas, but widening it out
on-gas areas would also see uptake. into other areas too.
Figure 4
Webinar question results regarding the near term growth prospects for our energy storage categories
Cross licence area comparison:
The spatial distribution of new heat pumps, who installs a heat pump and why, is a key assumption
that was presented to the audience. Both audiences in the South Wales and South West disagreed
with the assumption that deployment would be limited to just off-gas homes and new builds, and
Standalone / grid services the modelling will be updated to reflect some uptake in on-gas homes in the near term.
3.2 Figure 5
Webinar question results from the South West webinar, regarding the spatial distribution
Lots of deployment
Co-located with electricity generation of heat pump deployment in the near-term
Little activity
2.9
Co-located with high energy users 5%
3.3
33%
Domestic batteries
62%
2.9 Uptake only in off-gas homes
Only in off-gas homes and
new builds after 2025
Focussed on these areas, but
with some growth elsewhere too
10 Stakeholder consultation webinar summary report South West licence area 11Your comments to us Our response Your comments to us Our response
Theme: electric vehicles (EVs) Theme: DFES
You told us that in the long term under a Only 9% of respondents thought there would You asked us, to which areas do the The ESAs relate to the spatial area served
net zero scenario, that both the number of be no change, a clear message, though vehicle ESAs relate? by a single electricity ‘primary’ supply point.
vehicles, and the miles those vehicles drive, number reduction is not an assumption that is They are also cut by local authority boundaries
would be reduced. currently included in the FES. We will seek to (2019) so that an ESA which spans across
include it in this round of the DFES under the multiple local authorities may be analysed at
most ambitious net zero scenario. an ESA or at a local authority level.
You asked what assumptions our model The previous FES incorporated the 2040 If a local authority falls across two areas is Only the parts of the local authority which
makes about the planned phase-out of petrol target, which has now been brought forward. the information for the full local authority of are within the WPD network boundary are
and diesel vehicles. Our modelling incorporates the new 2035 just for part of it? included within the analysis. However, where
target, however there are other barriers and an authority falls across multiple ESAs wholly
drivers which will strongly impact near-term within the WPD boundary, the full local
uptake too. authority is included.
You asked if the projections take into account Home-based electric vehicles such as Are the DFES scenarios different from the The WPD DFES uses the same scenario
the new houses and commercial buildings electric cars, motorcycles, and some LGVs National Grid ESO Future Energy Scenarios? framework as the National Grid ESO FES as
planned in the area, and how does we model are modelled used demographic data such this allows stakeholder to compare DFES/FES
deployment in existing homes? as off-road parking and vehicle ownership. studies from different networks. However due
Projected new builds are used to inform to regional variations and a better visibility
the spatial distribution of domestic electric of near-term pipeline projects, there will be
vehicle chargers. variation between the two publications.
Cross licence area comparison: How will the results be released, and are The results of the DFES project and the
the slides available from these webinars? consultation webinars will be made publicly
The audience from both the West and East Midlands webinars were asked how COVID-19 may available. We are interested in which
impact transport use. In both webinars the outcomes considered most likely was ‘less commuting publications you find most useful; a full
due to working from home’, and ‘a near-term reduction in public transport use’. This impacts our dataset will be published, as well as an ‘in 5
transport model, potentially decreasing the number of miles driven by personal vehicles meaning minutes’ document, and an interactive map
a reduced energy demand from electric vehicle chargers. While in both webinars there was only interface through which specific locational
limited expectation that COVID-19 would result in a reduced level of car ownership overall, there data can be downloaded.
was high support for this option as part of a long-term ambitious net zero scenario, which will be
included in the modelling of vehicle use long-term. You told us that it is not always easy to know As part of the DFES 2020 process, WPD have
who councils are required to contact at WPD started to liaise with Local Authorities through
as part of local plan preparation. our Distribution Managers to review the
Figure 6 current DFES projections and act as a point
Webinar question results from the West Midlands webinar regarding how vehicle use may change of contact for future Local Plan preparation.
in the long-term. WPD will review this process for future DFES
studies and investigate how to accommodate
other utilities to provide a whole system
approach to Local Energy Planning.
45%
You asked if the WPD distribution managers Thank you for the feedback, this is an
can engage with Welsh Government Energy exercise which WPD will look to initiate
Service more formally. with Welsh government.
23% 23%
9%
Reduction in Reduction in Both - number of Neither - no
number of owned average car cars and average change in vehicle
vehicles mileage mileage both reduce behaviour
12 Stakeholder consultation webinar summary report South West licence area 13Figure 7
Your comments to us Our response Webinar question results regarding the possible impacts of local climate emergency declarations
(results shown from two webinars)
Theme: the climate emergency
What changes will climate emergency declarations bring about? (select up to 3)
The results of our webinar questions indicate We will incorporate these responses into
that a climate emergency declaration could our local authority weightings for various
impact new developments, increase the technologies, raising the deployment of local
provision of electric vehicle chargers, and lead vehicle charging stations, public transport
to the refusal of more fossil fuel generators via electrification, and low carbon technologies in
the planning system. new builds where climate emergencies have
10%
11%
been declared.
Renewable energy
designated zones
Cross licence area comparison:
More heat networks
19% 17%
More electric Electrifying
vehicle chargers public transport
The impact of local declarations of a climate emergency will differ by local authority, and with
many declarations happening so recently the precise result is hard to evidence. However,
attendees to both the East and West Midlands webinars suggested that increased provision of
electric vehicle charging and electrified public transport would be a likely change. In the West
Midlands, there was stronger expectation that fossil fuel generators would be refused planning
permission, receiving 17% of votes, compared to 10% from the East Midlands webinar. In the 2%
modelling, those who have made a climate emergency declaration will in the medium-term Other
receive a weighting towards electrified public transport, refusal of fossil fuel generation, and
higher uptake for low carbon technologies in new build homes.
17% 24%
Refusal of fossil Higher standards for
fuel generators new homes (e.g. Zero
in planning carbon homes)
What changes will climate emergency declarations bring about? (select up to 3)
7% 9%
More heat networks Renewable energy
designated zones
18%
Electrifying
public transport
32%
More electric
vehicle chargers
1%
10% Other
Refusal of fossil
fuel generators
in planning
24%
Higher standards for
new homes (e.g. Zero
carbon homes)
14 Stakeholder consultation webinar summary report South West licence area 15Your comments to us Our response Your comments to us Our response
Theme: new developments Theme: WPD net work
You asked how the DFES can effectively feed The DFES is designed to account for the You said that lots of areas which would We do our own resource assessment so that
into Local Plan Infrastructure Delivery Plans. most up to date Local Plan information otherwise have renewable deployment face areas with low existing deployment but high
available, and these projections are used network constraints or high connection cost, potential are still included. We don’t limit
in network analysis to determine potential which is limiting deployment. deployment in the modelling by network
reinforcements required. capacity as this wouldn’t give an accurate
picture of where investment may be needed.
Our DFES projections are also disseminated
to Local Authorities to review our assumptions
and understand how WPD can feed into future You asked if there is a mechanism for like- Yes, this is possible and there is a page on
Infrastructure Delivery Plans. minded developers to enter a consortium to the WPD website about this, link here:
reinforce existing infrastructure, and whether
local authorities can push for investment in www.westernpower.co.uk/connections-
You asked at what point in the Local Plan Draft local plans offer an updated position their area. landing/facilitating-sharing-of-information-
process do WPD want to know about over previously adopted local plans. Plans for-potential
development sites – when the plan has been in the draft stage are therefore preferred.
adopted or when it is in draft. You asked whether significant infrastructure New connections to the distribution network
is necessary for new domestic or commercial will be designed to provide the lowest cost
developments which may have vehicle connection as required by the customer, which
charging or electric heating. may include requirements to reinforce the
You asked if half-hourly metered data is used WPD use a combination of half hourly network. As an industry we support a review
or peak figures with a diversity factor applied, metered customer data and profiles of standards to accommodate electric vehicle
and whether WPD has their own benchmarks derived from innovation projects applied charging and other low carbon technologies
to forecast demand based on floor area. to the DFES projections for electrical as a requirement for future developments, as
analysis. More information on the electrical this can be incorporated into future modelling.
profiles used can be found in our Shaping
Subtransmission reports:
www.westernpower.co.uk/smarter-networks/
network-strategy/strategic-investment-
options-shaping-subtransmission
16 Stakeholder consultation webinar summary report South West licence area 17Figure 8
Webinar question results regarding any potential delay to new development build rates resulting Your comments to us Our response
from COVID-1
Theme: COVID-19 and miscellaneous
You told us that COVID-19 may lead to a delay We will increase the delay for projects
What do you think the magnitude of the lapse in build rates will be,
to new developments, however that the impact expected to be built in the near term.
if any, due to COVID-19?
would lessen by 2021 and 2022.
2020
7.8 East Midlands
There is a similar impact from You told us that a delay in new buildings Although we have not collected data for
50% reduction
No reduction
2021 COVID-19 expected by planners development may not mean a reduction in non-allocated developments, we will consider
4.8 from across the four licence area overall development. It may mean that more the effect of their possible early permission on
regions, with a 30-40% lapse in ‘non-allocated’ sites are permitted. the overall annual build out rates. As this is an
2022 the build rates in 2020, dropping annual process, we capture any changes each
to around 10% by 2022. year to minimise discrepancies.
2.1
You asked if the role of local energy markets Local energy markets aren’t explicitly
were included as part of the solution to modelled anywhere in the DFES process,
balancing capacity issues. however assessing and signposting for the
2020 need for electricity system flexibility is a key
use of the DFES dataset.
7.7
50% reduction
No reduction
2021
West Midlands Results suggested that most stakeholders This is a key message and will be used in
4.6
believed that the only new form of diesel our modelling of diesel generator uptake
2022 generation will be to provide mains back-up, and spatial distribution.
if they are deployed at all.
2.4
2020 Figure 9
Webinar question results regarding the expected deployment of diesel power generation in the 2020s
6.5
South Midlands
50% reduction
No reduction
2021 South West stakeholders
3.7 expected the lowest impact
on build rates of the four
2022 licence areas.
1.4 14%
20%
2020
8 There will be no new diesel
connections at all
50% reduction
No reduction
2021
4.5 South Wales There will only be new diesel
generators providing mains
2022
66% back-up
2.8
There may be some new diesel
generation with emission control
18 Stakeholder consultation webinar summary report South West licence area 19Western Power Distribution (East Midlands) plc, No2366923
Western Power Distribution (West Midlands) plc, No3600574
Western Power Distribution (South West) plc, No2366894
Western Power Distribution (South Wales) plc, No2366985
Registered in England and Wales
Registered Office: Avonbank, Feeder Road, Bristol BS2 0TB
www.westernpower.co.uk
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