DroughtScape WINTER 2022 - National Drought Mitigation Center

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DroughtScape WINTER 2022 - National Drought Mitigation Center
DroughtScape
           WINTER 2022        QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER

                                                  How bad was it?
                                                 Quarterly and annual drought
                                     and impact summaries highlight extremes

    National Climate Assessment taps NDMC expertise
                                Tonya Haigh, NDMC Social Science coordinator,
                             is a coauthor for the Northern Great Plains Region

                  What does drought look like for you?
                    Choose from several ways to share photos and observations

DROUGHT SCIENCE                                     PLANNING SENSE
DroughtScape WINTER 2022 - National Drought Mitigation Center
About the cover
Drying pond in Sandy Creek
Environmental Park in Durham, North
                                            From
                                               the
                                                 Director
Carolina, December 14, 2021. Photo
submitted by a CMOR user.

Contents

                                                                            I
                                                                                hope all of you reading the first
1    From the Director                                                          DroughtScape of 2022 have had a
                                                                                happy and productive New Year so
2    4th quarter climate summary
                                                                             far. Unfortunately, drought conditions
                                                                             don’t reset with the turn of the calendar
4    Annual climate & drought summary
                                                                             or the change of a season. Just over
                                                                             55% of the Lower 48 was experiencing
8    4th quarter drought impact summary
                                                                             moderate drought or worse as of Jan.
11 Annual drought impact summary                                             18, 2022, the week that drought
                                                                             coverage set a U.S. Drought Monitor-era
14 Drought Center develops new                                               record. Starting on Sept. 29, 2020,
     objective blend tools                                                   drought has covered at least 40% of the
                                                                             Lower 48, a streak of 69 weeks.
15 U.S. Drought Monitor email alerts                                              As the NDMC’s Brian Fuchs put it
                                            Mark Svoboda                     recently, we are seeing that drought now
16 Which reporting system is right for                                       comes in all shapes and sizes, and at any
     you?                                   time. And we are seeing how drought contributes to disasters across a
                                            broad scope. Long-term drought conditions in Colorado have been cited
18 Statewide CMOR use produces              as a contributing factor in the recent rapid wildfire that claimed over 900
     clear picture of drought in North      homes in the Boulder area this winter. The conditions that contributed to
     Dakota                                 this USDM-era record-long period of drought, as well as scores of
                                            impacts that have resulted from it, are cataloged in our annual climate
20 NDMC’s Haigh contributes to              and impact summaries. Our climatologist, Curtis Riganti, and impacts
     National Climate Assessment
                                            specialist, Denise Gutzmer, also zero in on recent trends with the
                                            quarterly climate and impact summaries. Each is well worth the read.
                                                  Along with a look back at 2021, this issue of DroughtScape
          ndmc@unl.edu
          Cory Matteson, Editor             highlights several ways in which the NDMC is helping inform everyone
                                            from experts to the general public about drought conditions, and how
                                            they can help us better pinpoint where drought is developing and how
          drought.unl.edu                   it is affecting people who live there.
                                                  I’m extremely excited to announce that the Drought Center
                                            recently launched its new weekly and gridded long- and short-term
          @DroughtCenter                    objective blends maps, which will help provide USDM authors with an
                                            early point of reference each week as they develop the latest Drought
                                            Monitor map. While they are upgraded versions of maps that USDM
          @DroughtCenter
                                            authors requested at the very first U.S. Drought Monitor Forum, they
                                            are available for anyone to view at ndmcblends.unl.edu. We strive to
          go.unl.edu/droughtflix
                                            share our science with the public, which is why we also developed a
                                            tool that lets you receive email alerts when drought conditions change
                                            in your neighborhood. Learn how to sign up for the Drought Alert
          go.unl.edu/supportndmc            Request on page 15.
                                                  And on page 16, learn how you can best submit drought
                                            conditions observations to a number of drought monitoring networks.
                                            Then read how North Dakota’s state climatologist worked with the
                                            NDMC’s Kelly Helm Smith to streamline the drought reporting process
                                            using the Condition Monitoring Observation Reports system (page
                                            18). State climatologists: If that gives you any ideas about how you
                                            could use CMOR, reach out. We’re here to help. ❍
The University of Nebraska–Lincoln is an
equal opportunity educator and employer.

© 2022 National Drought Mitigation Center

DROUGHTSCAPE
                                                      1                                               Winter | 2022
DroughtScape WINTER 2022 - National Drought Mitigation Center
FOURTH QUARTER OF 2021 CLIMATE SUMMARY
 Southern Plains saw more drought in 4th quarter of 2021
 By Curtis Riganti
 NDMC climatologist

 Drought classifications are based on
 the U.S. Drought Monitor. Details on
 the extent and severity of drought
 are online: droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

 The outlook integrates existing
 conditions with forecasts from the
 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
 Administration’s Climate Prediction
 Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

 National Summary

 I
    n the final quarter of 2021,
    drought conditions developed or
    worsened in parts of the central
 and southern Great Plains,
 particularly in eastern Colorado,
 western Kansas, the Texas
 Panhandle, and western Oklahoma.
 Drought also developed and
 worsened in northern Louisiana (and        Change in U.S. Drought Monitor categories between September 28, 2021 and
 the adjacent ArkLaTex region),             December 28, 2021. Warm colors represent worsening drought conditions, and
 western Mississippi, and the               cool colors represent improved drought conditions.
 Carolinas and Virginia. Drought
 conditions improved in parts of the
 northern Great Plains and Upper         moderate drought grew from about         Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic,
 Midwest, particularly in Iowa,          79 million to about 100 million over     northwestern Maine, south-central
 Minnesota, and the Dakotas, though      the final quarter.                       Wisconsin, and parts of central
 conditions mostly worsened in                                                    Montana. Above-normal
 Wisconsin. West of the Continental
                                         Precipitation
                                                                                  precipitation occurred in the final
 Divide, drought conditions generally                                             quarter in northeast Illinois, northern
 stayed the same or improved, with                                                Indiana, northwest Ohio, and
                                              During the final quarter of 2021,
 the largest improvements coming in                                               southeast Lower Michigan. Wetter-
                                         very dry weather enveloped eastern
 northwest Montana, Idaho,                                                        than-normal conditions also
                                         Colorado and adjacent southwest
 Washington, and Oregon.                                                          occurred in North Dakota and
                                         Nebraska, western Kansas, New
                                                                                  northwest Minnesota. Largely driven
 Drought
                                         Mexico, western Texas, and western
                                         Oklahoma. This dryness set the           by storm systems in December,
                                         stage for several wildfire and dust      above-normal precipitation fell
      During the last quarter of 2021,
                                         storm events during December             across much of California, Nevada,
 moderate drought coverage
                                         storm systems; please see the 2021       northern Utah, parts of western
 increased from 40.05% to 46.23%
                                         Annual Climate and Drought               Colorado, far northwest Washington,
 near the end of December. Despite
                                         Summary, also in this issue of           southeast Idaho, and southwest
 the increase in overall drought
                                         DroughtScape, or the December            Wyoming. These December storm
 coverage, other drought categorical
                                         2021 Climate and Drought Summary         systems helped to deposit large
 coverages remained near constant
                                         for further information on these         snowpacks after what had been a
 or decreased. Severe drought
                                         events. After a wet August               slow start to the high elevation snow
 coverage was mostly unchanged,
                                         associated with Hurricane Ida,           season in the West. Precipitation in
 dropping slightly from 30.61% to
                                         Louisiana and Mississippi and            Hawaii ended up being a bit above
 30.3% . Extreme drought coverage
                                         southwest Alabama saw much drier         normal or near normal in most areas
 dropped from 19.32 to 11.7%, and
                                         than normal weather from October         for the final quarter, following a very
 exceptional drought coverage
                                         through December. Drier-than-            wet December; much of the state
 dropped from 6.07 to 1.3%. The
                                         normal weather also occurred in the      had been in drought entering
 population experiencing at least

 Winter | 2022
                                                          2                                           DROUGHTSCAPE
DroughtScape WINTER 2022 - National Drought Mitigation Center
December. East-central Alaska saw
above-normal precipitation during
the final quarter, while parts of
southeast Alaska were a little drier
than normal. Parts of southern and
northwest Puerto Rico were drier
than normal, and very dry weather
continued in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Temperature
    A large portion of the
contiguous U.S. experienced
warmer-than-normal temperatures
during the fourth quarter of 2021. In
particular, roughly the central third
from the Mississippi River to the
Continental Divide was unusually
warm, with widespread temperature
readings from 4 to 6 degrees above
normal and scattered readings from
6 to 8 degrees above normal,
particularly in Texas. The eastern
U.S. was also warmer than normal,
though temperatures there were
generally 2 to 4 degrees warmer                                                     High Plains Regional Climate Center
than normal, with some anomalies        Standardized precipitation index for October through December 2021. This
                                        statistic shows how unusually high or low precipitation totals were for October
of 4 to 6 degrees above normal in
                                        through December, compared to normal October through December
the Midwest and in western              precipitation totals for a location.
Pennsylvania and New York. Far
northern Montana, northern
California, and northwest
Washington saw temperatures near
or below normal, and temperatures
in much of Nevada, southern
California, and south Florida were
near normal for the final quarter. ❍

                                                                               High Plains Regional Climate Center
                                        December 2021 monthly temperature anomalies compared to normal values
                                        for December (in degrees Farenheit).

DROUGHTSCAPE
                                                       3                                                 Winter | 2022
DroughtScape WINTER 2022 - National Drought Mitigation Center
2021 ANNUAL CLIMATE & DROUGHT SUMMARY
Western drought persisted through much of 2021
By Curtis Riganti
NDMC Climatologist

A
       cross much of the U.S.,
       moderate and severe drought
       coverage increased during
2021, while coverage of extreme and
exceptional drought decreased
slightly. Within the year, a few local
significant drought events came and
went as well. On the whole, drought
continued in the West, though this
improved somewhat during the
second half of the year. Drought
also occurred over the central and
southern portions of the western
Great Plains, primarily in the winter
and early spring, then again late in
autumn, with a reprieve in the form
of wet conditions in between.
Widespread drought formed and
dissipated in Hawaii. Other extreme
precipitation and temperature
anomalies, such as Hurricane Ida in         Drought category changes between the U.S. Drought Monitor maps valid on
the eastern U.S., anomalous cold in         December 29, 2020 and December 28, 2021. Warm colors represent worsening
the central and southern U.S. in            drought conditions, and cool colors represent improved drought conditions.
February, and anomalous warmth
across a large swath of the country
in December, occurred in 2021 and
will be detailed herein. From the last   drought conditions also occurred in       the month. The persistent cold
USDM map of 2020 to the first            eastern Colorado and adjacent             weather and winter precipitation
USDM map of 2022, moderate               portions of western Kansas and            (much of it in the form of snow) was
drought coverage increased from          Nebraska. Over the entirety of the        impactful, particularly in Texas and
40.97 to 45.82%, severe drought          first quarter of 2021, the northern       Oklahoma. Widespread power
coverage increased from 28.61 to         Great Plains and Upper Midwest            outages and pipe bursts occurred in
29.35%, extreme drought coverage         were generally a few degrees              the southern Great Plains as a result
decreased from 18.56 to 10.33%,          warmer than normal. A corridor from       of the cold snap, with some of the
and exceptional drought coverage         eastern Wyoming into the Texas            power outage problems extending
dropped from 8.26 to 1.3%.               Panhandle saw temperatures                farther north in the Great Plains.
     From January through March,         generally 2 to 4 degrees colder than      Parts of the central Great Plains,
drought that was ongoing at the          normal during this period. In the         particularly Nebraska, southeast
beginning of the year evolved in         eastern U.S., temperatures generally      Wyoming, northeast Colorado, and
some regions. Drought conditions         were near normal or 2 to 4 degrees        northwest Kansas, saw above-
generally worsened in south Texas,       warmer than normal. Despite the           normal (or much above normal)
where extreme drought expanded           aforementioned overall statistics,        precipitation between January and
and exceptional drought was              February 2021 was anomalously             March, primarily driven by wet
introduced. Some improvement to          cold over a large portion of the Great    conditions in March.
drought conditions occurred in           Plains and western portions of the             From April through June
southwest and central parts of           Midwest. A large expanse saw              (hereafter referred to as the “second
Arizona. Improvement to drought          temperatures at least 9 degrees           quarter”), very dry weather occurred
conditions occurred in Hawaii during     below normal for February, from           in parts of the Upper Midwest and
the first quarter of the year. Drought   central Montana southward to north        northern Great Plains, and in parts
conditions worsened in the western       Texas and eastward to Illinois and        of the northwest U.S., particularly
Dakotas and in adjacent northeast        Wisconsin. Within this area, a few        the northern Sierra Nevada,
Montana. Parts of Washington and         spots in eastern Nebraska and             Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah,
Oregon saw improvement to drought        central Montana came in at 15             and Montana. Dry weather also
conditions, and improvement in           degrees or more below normal for          occurred in eastern Kentucky and

Winter | 2022
                                                          4                                           DROUGHTSCAPE
DroughtScape WINTER 2022 - National Drought Mitigation Center
adjacent states and in northern New
England. Above-normal precipitation
occurred in southeast New Mexico,
parts of north-central and west-
central Texas, and the Gulf Coast
region of Texas, Louisiana, and
Mississippi. During the second
quarter, temperatures were generally
1 to locally 5 degrees warmer than
normal west of the Continental
Divide and north of Interstate 80.
Temperatures from central Texas
into the Southeast were generally 1
to 3 degrees below normal. In June,
warmer-than-normal temperatures
were spread across much of the
contiguous U.S., with the exception
of the south-central and southeast
regions. The northern Great Plains
and the West, in particular the
northwest states, were much
warmer than normal in June, with
many sites recording temperatures
at least 6 degrees above normal.
The above-normal precipitation in
south Texas and the Edwards                 U.S. Drought Monitor map for December 28, 2021, the last USDM map for 2021.
Plateau removed much of the
drought in this region by the end of
the second quarter, leaving a couple
spots along the Rio Grande in                  During the third quarter of 2021     quarter, temperatures in the
moderate long-term drought at the         (July-September), drought continued       southern U.S. were generally within
end of June. Drought areas had also       to expand and intensify in the            a couple degrees of normal.
mostly retreated west out of the          northwest U.S. and in Minnesota,          Temperatures were mostly warmer
Texas Panhandle, and some                 while conditions improved markedly        than normal in the north-central and
improvement to conditions also            in Arizona and southern Utah. Short-      western U.S., with most areas
occurred in the Permian Basin.            term drought also began a quick           coming in between 2 and 4 degrees
Drought conditions expanded in            onset in late August and September        above normal. Parts of California,
New England during the second             in the southern Great Plains and in       Oregon, Montana, Utah, South
quarter, with some severe drought         parts of eastern Colorado,                Dakota, North Dakota, and northern
developing in Maine and northern          southwest and western Nebraska,           Minnesota finished the quarter 4 to
New Hampshire. Drought expanded           and adjacent parts of northwest and       6 degrees above normal. Above-
across parts of northern Iowa,            southwest Kansas. Improvement in          normal precipitation (including
southern Wisconsin, and northern          drought conditions in Arizona and         some major events) fell in southeast
Illinois, with parts of Chicagoland       southern Utah occurred due to a wet       Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
ending up in extreme drought in the       monsoon period. Drought intensity         northern Alabama, parts of Georgia,
latter half of June. Extreme drought,     and coverage peaked in mid to late        and central Tennessee. A flood
and some exceptional drought,             August in Minnesota and Iowa as a         disaster occurred in late August in
expanded along the Missouri River         result of continued dry weather and       the western portion of central
in parts of the Dakotas and far           warmer-than-normal temperatures.          Tennessee, in which 20 people died
northern Nebraska. Above-normal           In September, drought conditions          after 10-15 inches of rain fell in
precipitation and near-normal             began to improve in these areas.          parts of the area around Waverly.
temperatures in eastern Colorado          Very dry weather occurred along the       Hurricane Ida struck the Gulf Coast
allowed for drought to cease east of      North Dakota-Montana border in the        of Louisiana and headed northeast,
the Front Range of the Rocky              third quarter, as well as in the west-    delivering flooding rain, powerful
Mountains. Drought conditions             central Great Plains, particularly in     winds, and destructive storm surge
began to expand in Minnesota              southeast Wyoming, western                in the last few days of August.
during the second quarter, a sign of      Nebraska, eastern Colorado,               Flooding, and generally above-
conditions that would worsen              northwest Kansas, and parts of the        normal precipitation, were also a
significantly later. As a result of the   western Texas and Oklahoma                problem in the Northeast after
hot and dry weather, drought              panhandles and northeast New              Hurricane Ida’s remnants tracked
conditions expanded and worsened          Mexico. By the end of September,          there. A tornado outbreak affected
in the northwest U.S.                     short-term drought had expanded           parts of eastern Pennsylvania and
                                          across these areas. During the third      New Jersey, while flash flooding

DROUGHTSCAPE
                                                           5                                              Winter | 2022
DroughtScape WINTER 2022 - National Drought Mitigation Center
struck New York City as Ida’s
remnants passed through. Far
northern New England missed out
on the above-normal precipitation,
however, and a small area of
moderate and severe drought
persisted.
     The final quarter of 2021 was
characterized by weather and
climate extremes in many areas, as
well as an expansion of drought in
parts of the Great Plains. With the
exception of parts of the West,
much of the contiguous U.S. saw
warmer-than-normal temperatures
from October through December.
Temperatures across a large
expanse of the Great Plains were 4
to 6 degrees above normal, with
localized spots 6 to 8 degrees above
normal. Dry weather enveloped
eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico, as well as adjacent parts of
western Nebraska, Kansas,
Oklahoma, and Texas. When
combined with the drier July through       Standardized precipitation index for 2021, computed from NWS weather station
                                           data. This statistic shows how unusual precipitation totals are for a location, with
September in this region and the
                                           negative numbers being dry anomalies and positive numbers being wet anomalies.
anomalously warm temperatures,
short-term drought quickly
expanded and worsened in this
region, setting the stage for storm
systems in December to adversely        Valley into the Ohio River Valley, with      wildfires also occurred in Kansas,
impact the region. Short-term           Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and           Oklahoma, and Texas. Near the end
drought also developed in Louisiana     Missouri being hit with numerous             of December, very strong winds
and Mississippi in the midst of very    strong tornadoes and a couple                impacted the Boulder, Colorado
dry weather in the final quarter.       violent tornadoes, which resulted in         area, which helped to spread a
Some short-term drought also            numerous fatalities and widespread           wildfire in areas experiencing
developed in parts of the Mid-          destruction. The second storm                extreme drought. This wildfire
Atlantic states, where precipitation    system roared across the central             resulted in a few fatalities and
was below normal from October           Great Plains and Upper Midwest on            widespread destruction. In the midst
through the end of the year. As         December 15, leading to a myriad of          of the destructive December
alluded to earlier, much warmer than    impacts. Widespread damaging                 weather in the Great Plains and
normal temperatures, particularly       thunderstorm winds affected areas            Midwest, these storm systems
east of the Rocky Mountains, had        from central Nebraska and north-             helped to deliver heavy mountain
many impacts. During October,           central Kansas to parts of southern          snows to large portions of the West.
much of the Great Lakes region saw      Minnesota and Wisconsin as a                 In the last couple weeks of the year,
temperatures from 6 to 8 degrees        derecho, which was highly unusual            drought conditions improved
above normal, which delayed the         for how far north and late in the year       markedly across the region,
onset of autumn foliage in parts of     it occurred. Within the thunderstorm         particularly in California, Nevada,
the region. Warm and humid air in       line, numerous tornadoes formed,             Utah, Idaho, Oregon, and
late October helped to fuel a tornado   including some in Minnesota, the             Washington, though long-term
outbreak just to the south of St.       first time that December tornadoes           drought remained in many locations.
Louis, which resulted in several        had been observed there.                     Finally, drought conditions, after
strong/intense tornadoes. In            Widespread damaging non-                     worsening in much of Hawaii
December, the U.S. (as a whole) saw     thunderstorm winds also occurred             through the end of November, were
its warmest December on record, as      in parts of Kansas, Colorado, Texas,         removed by the beginning of
did many individual states. Two         Oklahoma, and Nebraska, which                January after widespread significant
powerful storm systems traversed        induced a widespread dust storm as           precipitation.
the central U.S. in the middle of       strong winds lofted dust in the areas             Over the course of 2021, the
December. The first resulted in a       of the western Great Plains                  percent coverage of moderate
tornado outbreak that affected          experiencing short-term drought. In          drought hovered within roughly 5%
areas from the mid-Mississippi River    addition to the dust storm, several          of the 40% mark for much of the

Winter | 2022
                                                           6                                              DROUGHTSCAPE
DroughtScape WINTER 2022 - National Drought Mitigation Center
peaked at 8.55% in late May, and
                                                                                          ended the year with a minimum of
                                                                                          1.59%.
                                                                                                In terms of population
                                                                                          experiencing moderate drought, the
                                                                                          year began with about 70 million
                                                                                          people in moderate drought areas.
                                                                                          This number fell to about 60 million
                                                                                          people in the middle of February,
                                                                                          peaked at about 102 million people
                                                                                          in late April, and ended the year at
                                                                                          roughly 99 million people. At the
                                                                                          beginning of the year, about 43
                                                                                          million people were in severe
                                                                                          drought areas. This number dropped
                                                                                          to about 34 million people in the
                                                                                          middle of February, grew to a
                                                                                          maximum of about 67 million
                                                                                          people in the middle of June, and
                                                                                          finished the year at about 56 million
                                                                                          people. At the start of 2021, about
                                                                                          23 million people were experiencing
                                                                                          extreme drought. The population in
                                                                                          extreme drought reached a
                                                                                          maximum of about 45 million
February 2021 temperature departures from normal (in degrees Farenheit).                  people in the middle of June, and
                                                                                          eventually settled to a minimum of
                                                                                          about 18 million people by the end
                                                                                          of 2021. At the onset of 2021,
     year, reaching a low of 36.31% in           August, and finished the year at         roughly 8 million people were in
     late May and reaching a high of             30.3%. Extreme drought coverage          exceptional drought areas. This
     46.53% in early December. Severe            began the year at 17.63%, peaked at      population grew to about 19 million
     drought coverage started 2021 at            22.39% in the middle of August, and      people by the end of August, then
     27.49%, reached a minimum of                bottomed out at 11.7% at the end of      fell to about 390,000 people by the
     24.74% at the end of March, reached         the year. Exceptional drought            end of the year. ❍
     a maximum of 32.65% in early                coverage began the year at 7.91%,

                MONTHLY DROUGHT AND IMPACT SUMMARIES
                                    For a more detailed review of conditions, please visit:
                                    drought.unl.edu/Publications/MonthlySummary.aspx

     DROUGHTSCAPE
                                                                   7                                           Winter | 2022
DroughtScape WINTER 2022 - National Drought Mitigation Center
4TH QUARTER 2021 DROUGHT IMPACT SUMMARY
  Drought improved in the West, Northern Plains, but
  flared in the Southern Plains, Mid-Atlantic
  By Denise Gutzmer
  NDMC Drought Impacts Specialist

  T
        he NDMC added 329 impacts
        to the Drought Impact
        Reporter in the last quarter of
  2021 as a hot, dry year wound down.
  So much of the U.S. West was in
  drought, and it was such an intense
  level of drought, touching every
  aspect of life in the West from
  agriculture and water supplies to
  recreation and human health.
  California had the most impacts
  with 128, recording many water
  restrictions and supply issues.

  La Niña forecast for
  winter, into spring
      This year was the second year of
  a La Niña with a 90% chance of La             Dried pond in Sheridan County, North Dakota, December 3, 2021. Photo submitted
  Niña conditions prevailing through            by a CMOR user.
  the Northern Hemisphere winter and
  into spring 2022 during March
  through May, according to the
  National Weather Service’s Climate
  Prediction Center and reported by          Lower Colorado River                       precipitation being responsible for
                                                                                        the snow drought. Several ski
  Reuters on Nov. 11. The pattern is
  linked to floods and drought.
                                             Basin agreement                            resorts in northern Utah had not
                                                                                        opened in early December due to the
                                                 Water authorities from Arizona,        absence of snow. Most ski resorts
  Drought concerns in the                    Nevada and California signed an
                                             agreement on Dec. 15, voluntarily
                                                                                        in the Rockies were eagerly awaiting
                                                                                        snow to open. California resorts,
  western U.S.                               offering to reduce their share of
                                             water to be taken from the Colorado
                                                                                        too, were needing snow to open.

  Hay supplies, drought, dairies in the
                                                                                        California
                                             River to keep Lake Mead fuller, as
                                             reported by Associated Press. The
  West, ranchers                             500+ Plan requires that the states              As the Golden State entered its
      Cattle ranchers and dairy farmers      take 500,000 acre-feet less in 2022        water year with low reservoirs, these
  in the Great Plains and West struggled     and 2023, depending on water usage         are some of the events that occurred
  to feed their herds after a hot, dry       and conservation in the area, with the     in the last quarter of 2021:
  summer. Pasture and hay growth             aim of averting mandatory cuts in the
  were poor with over a third of U.S. hay-   near future. States must also make a       California statewide drought
  growing areas in drought across the        financial investment, and the federal
                                                                                        emergency declaration
  West to the Northern Plains. Hay for       government would also contribute.
  sale was hard to find, and some                                                           Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a

                                             Snow drought in the
  livestock were being sold early.                                                      statewide drought emergency for
      The challenges were greater for                                                   California on Oct. 19 and urged
  dairy operators. Many California
  dairy farmers could not grow half
                                             western U.S.                               more water conservation. Fifty of
                                                                                        the Golden State’s 58 counties had
  their feed as usual and bought feed            Through early December, winter         been in a state of drought
  at steep prices instead. Many              did not bring much snow to the             emergency since July, and Gov.
  operations went out of business or         western U.S., as reported by               Newsom added the eight remaining
  were on the cusp of doing so.              Associated Press, with warm                counties and reiterated his call for
                                             temperatures and lack of

  Winter | 2022
                                                               8                                           DROUGHTSCAPE
DroughtScape WINTER 2022 - National Drought Mitigation Center
water conservation of 15%. During
the previous drought, Gov. Jerry
Brown mandated urban water
conservation of 25%, according to
the Los Angeles Times.

Low reservoir levels at start of water
year
     The Bureau of Reclamation’s
Central Valley Project began the
2022 water year on Oct. 1 with 3.21
million acre-feet of water, for one of
the lowest starting points in recent
history as drought persisted in
California, according to the Bureau
of Reclamation.
                                           Of the 329 impacts added to the Drought Impact Reporter from October through

October atmospheric river helpful,
                                           December, most came from California, where the DIR media search and
                                           moderation process identified 128 impacts. Colorado and Texas followed with
but not an end to drought                  40 and 35 impacts, respectively.
     In late October, an atmospheric
river brought abundant precipitation
to northern and central California,
setting new daily precipitation
records and bringing some relief to
depleted reservoirs. The AR dropped
8 trillion gallons of rain, leading to
the wettest October for Northern
California and Nevada in decades,
according to SFGate. The fire
season was dampened and likely at
an end in Northern California. Some
water bodies, like Lake Tahoe and
Lake Oroville, benefitted from the
storms. Some ski resorts in the
northern Sierras received 30 or more
inches of snow.
                                           Drought relief, response and restrictions (23.3%) was the top impact category
     Ultimately the torrential rain        in the October–December 2021 Drought Impact Reporter.
was just enough and just in the nick
of time, but more storms will be
needed, per the Los Angeles Times.
                                         to be put in place if the winter           Coast in the mid and latter parts of
Early December California                dryness persisted.                         December, replenishing some
preparations for continued dry               The State Water Resources              reservoirs and dropping heavy snow.
conditions                               Control Board proposed new                 By the end of the month, California
                                         emergency drought regulations in           had received more precipitation
     Although California received        early December to discourage               since the start of the water year,
some beneficial precipitation in late    water waste as supplies were low           beginning Oct. 1, than was received
October, November was very dry,          and the public was falling short of        in the previous 12 months,
and the Dec. 1 snowpack left much        the voluntary 15% water use                according to the National Weather
to be desired. California cities and     reduction urged by Gov. Newsom,            Service, as reported by San
farms were cautioned that they           according to San Mateo Daily               Francisco Chronicle. The state’s
should not expect to receive water       Journal.                                   precipitation volume was already
from California’s State Water Project        The proposed regulations were          33.9 trillion gallons, exceeding the
(SWP) in 2022, as reported by            approved in January.                       33.6 trillion gallons from the
Associated Press News. This is the                                                  previous year. On average, California
earliest date that the Department of     More atmospheric river activity            gets about 70 trillion gallons of
Water Resources has announced a          really deepened the Sierra Nevada          precipitation annually.
0% water allocation, indicative of       snowpack in December
just how serious drought conditions
were as the Sierra Nevada held little       Atmospheric rivers unleashed
snow. Mandatory restrictions were        heavy winter storms on the West

DROUGHTSCAPE
                                                          9                                                 Winter | 2022
Winter wheat needing                       Colorado’s Marshall Fire                      Forest Service on Nov. 29 issued a
                                                                                         ban on all open burning and
moisture in the Central,                        On Dec. 30, a small fire rapidly
                                           burgeoned into a massive, wind-
                                                                                         canceled all burning permits
                                                                                         statewide to protect lives, property
Southern Plains                            driven firestorm known as the                 and forestland, according to WWAY-
                                           Marshall Fire between Boulder and             TV3 in Leland, N.C. A number of
    Winter wheat on the Great              Denver that consumed nearly 1,100             counties in southern Virginia also
Plains has gotten off to a poor start      homes and other buildings,                    adopted burn bans, per WSLS in
in some states like Oklahoma where         blackened 9.4 square miles and was            Roanoke, Va.
the small plants did not have robust       estimated to have caused $513                     For more details, please visit the
root systems and will not cope well        million in damage, making this the            Drought Impact Reporter. ❍
with adverse conditions, as reported       most destructive wildfire in
by Reuters. Dry soils and lack of          Colorado’s history, per Associated
snow cover leave the crop                  Press.
vulnerable to winterkill. Drought               Warm temperatures and dry
affects parts of the Great Plains,         conditions primed the landscape for
posing a challenge for the wheat           this disastrous fire. July through
from Colorado and Nebraska to              mid-December 2021 was the
Texas.                                     warmest and driest on record in
    High winds from the Dec. 15            Denver, as reported by KDVR-TV FOX
windstorm stripped the U.S. Plains         31 Denver.
of needed moisture and damaged

                                           Developing drought in
the winter wheat crop, which was
already dealing with dry conditions.

                                           the Southeast & fire
While some Kansas wheat was
blown out of the ground, other
wheat was severely damaged, but
may be able to recover with the help
                                           danger
of moisture, per Reuters. Some                  The southeastern U.S. dried out
wheat, whitened and stripped of            rapidly in November. The dry
leaves, seems to have sustained            conditions, on top of the senescing
damage by static electricity from          vegetation of autumn, meant
blowing dust, per a Kansas State           heightened fire danger and
University extension agronomist.           increased fire activity in West
    In Texas, strong winds blew out        Virginia, Virginia and the Carolinas.
and killed the wheat, making it a          Cities and counties began enacting
total loss, according to the Texas         burn bans toward the end of
Farm Bureau.                               November. The North Carolina

                            DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER
                                        To view all impacts and reports, please visit:
                                                  droughtreporter.unl.edu

Winter | 2022
                                                            10                                              DROUGHTSCAPE
ANNUAL 2021 DROUGHT IMPACT SUMMARY
Drought gripped the Western U.S. in 2021
By Denise Gutzmer                          winter. Some wet winter storms           California drought emergency
                                           arrived in late October and in           declarations
NDMC Drought Impacts Specialist            December, bringing some needed
                                           relief, but more precipitation is            Gov. Gavin Newsom declared

2021
                      was an active
                      year in terms        needed to continue the escape from       drought emergencies for Mendocino
                      of drought. The      drought.                                 and Sonoma counties on April 21
year began with 48.99% of the                                                       and added another 39 counties in
continental U.S. in drought (D1-D4)
                                           Low water supplies in California—        northern California and the San
on Jan. 1 and stayed around that           snowpack melted, but reservoirs did      Joaquin Valley on May 10, according
level throughout the year before           not fill as expected                     to The Mercury News. No
ending at 54.81% on Dec. 31, 2021.                                                  mandatory water restrictions were
                                                California’s state and federal      ordered, as was done during the
Roughly half of the Lower 48—              water projects both made dire
largely the West—was consistently                                                   previous drought, because
                                           announcements about water                Californians were using 16% less
in drought throughout 2021.                deliveries on March 23 as the winter
     Most of the 1,202 impacts                                                      water than they did in 2013 as
                                           season brought scant precipitation,      conservation had become a habit.
logged in the Drought Impact               leaving water supplies short for the
Reporter in 2021 were for states
                                                                                    Varied drought impacts
                                           coming year. Water deliveries for the
west of the Mississippi River.             Central Valley Project, which were

                                                                                    in the West
California was the state with the          initially set at 5%, were delayed with
most impacts with 302                      no date set for water release. The
documenting numerous water                 State Water Project revealed a
restrictions and water-related issues                                                   Drought in the western U.S.
                                           reduction in water allocation to 5%,
as water supplies were lower than                                                   began ramping up in the fall of
                                           down from the 10% initial allocation
expected after the snowpack                                                         2019. It expanded, intensified and
                                           announced in December 2020.
resulted in less runoff than                                                        remained entrenched through the
                                                Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada
expected.                                                                           present.
                                           amounted to 59% of historical
                                           average on April 1, but melted away
California’s drought
                                                                                    These are many of the concerns
                                           early. The volume of water that was      faced in the West during 2021:

issues
                                           expected to refill reservoirs was
                                           dramatically reduced by evaporation      Low snowpack in Colorado
                                           and parched soil that absorbed the
    California’s most recent two           water and allowed 685,000 acre-feet          Snowpack was below normal in
years of drought were among the            of water to just vanish, per East Bay    Colorado for much of the winter of
driest in the state’s history. The state   Times. Water districts and               2020–21, raising concerns about
desperately needed a wet winter to         communities ratcheted up                 water supplies across the state. A
end the drought and replenish water        conservation requests and                mid-March snowstorm brought
supplies, but a second year of the La      mandates as it became clearer that       Colorado to 91% of its median
Niña pattern left southern California      more conservation was needed to          snowpack, but river basins west of
and the southern U.S. more likely to       extend water supplies in case next       the Continental Divide remained up
experience dry conditions again this       winter was also dry.                     to 19% below normal, per Colorado

DROUGHTSCAPE
                                                            11                                           Winter | 2022
Public Radio. The Colorado Basin          wildfire count in the U.S. exceeded         wildfires—Dixie, Monument, and
River Forecast Center forecast April-     100 blazes for a while in August.           Caldor—were climbing the chart of
July water supplies ranging from              California saw plenty of wildfires      the Top 20 Largest California
60-85% of normal in parts of the          in August exhibiting extreme and            Wildfires kept by Cal Fire. While the
basin. Given the low soil moisture        new fire behavior never witnessed           size of the Dixie and Caldor fires
due to 2020 being the second driest       before this year. Three massive             was certainly significant, their
year in Colorado’s recorded history, it
was expected that the soil would
absorb much of the moisture from
snowpack and reduce runoff in
2021.

Grim water shortages in New Mexico
     Most of New Mexico was in
exceptional drought during the first
quarter of 2021 as winter storms
failed to deliver much moisture,
presenting problems for water
supplies. Low flows on the Rio
Grande River, low reservoirs and
New Mexico owing water to Texas
all meant poor water outlooks for
farmers relying on the river for
water. For irrigation districts on the      California led the nation with 302 impacts recorded in the Drought Impact
Rio Grande River, the start to the          Reporter. Texas and Colorado followed with 142 and 130 impacts, respectively.
season was delayed, deliveries were
very low, and the seasons were to
end early, per the Las Cruces Sun
News.

Wildfires in the West
    Drought and extreme heat
contributed to the challenge of
fighting wildfires in the West this
summer. As August began, eighty-
some wildfires flared in the
Northwest, largely in western
Montana and northern Idaho. The
U.S. Forest Service announced its
intention in August to fight wildfires
more aggressively to protect towns
and infrastructure in the West as
drought conditions made blazes
                                             In 2021, the Drought Impact Reporter recorded 1,202 impacts.
harder to control, as reported by The
Wall Street Journal. The large

Winter | 2022
                                                           12                                               DROUGHTSCAPE
behavior was especially noteworthy.      Reclamation announced the first             Corn and failed small grains
Both the Dixie Fire and the Caldor       declared water shortage in the          were cut for livestock feed in parts
Fire burned from one side of the         Colorado River Basin on Aug. 16.        of North Dakota and elsewhere.
Sierra to the other within weeks of      Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will
each other, per Los Angeles Times.       receive less water in 2022, with        Diminished wheat production
Fire officials blame drought and         Arizona farmers seeing the biggest           The planting, growing and
climate change for the unheard-of        cut in water deliveries as the state    harvest were rough for spring wheat
fire behavior.                           gets 18% less of its share of river     in the Northern Plains in 2021. While
     Fire activity was unusually high    water. Nevada will lose 7% in 2022,     there was not enough moisture for
in the Northwest in 2021. More than      while Mexico will get about 5% less.    germination in some places, hopeful
1 million acres burned in wildfires in                                           farmers planted and waited for rain,
Washington and Oregon through            Cherished trout streams threatened      but the growing season did not offer
Aug. 15, compared with about             by drought                              much, per DTN – Progressive
52,500 acres by the same time in                                                 Farmer. For some wheat growers,
                                             Drought and heat have reduced
2020, according to the Northwest                                                 the crop was of better quality and
                                         trout streams in the U.S. West to
Interagency Coordination Center and                                              better yield than expected, while for
                                         slower, warmer ribbons of water
reported by KING-TV NBC 5 in                                                     others, the wheat was hayed for
                                         than usual. Yellowstone National
Seattle. Drought allowed the fire                                                feed, abandoned, or zeroed out by
                                         Park, Montana and Colorado
season to get a head start this year.                                            insurance. ❍
                                         imposed fishing restrictions to limit
First ever water shortage declaration    stress on the fish during the hotter
                                         times of day, but Idaho and
in the Colorado River Basin              Wyoming did not, per Associated
    Lake Mead had fallen about 140       Press News.
feet since 2000, per USA Today, and
was 37% full in early June. The          Livestock sales, poor hay growth
previous 12 months were some of               Extreme heat and drought dried
the driest on record across the          up pastures, leaving no hay or feed
Colorado River Basin. Inflows into       for cattle, pushing many cattle
Lake Powell from April through July      producers from Canada across the
were estimated to be just 26% of the     U.S. and Mexico to sell livestock, as
long-term average, leading to steep      reported by Reuters. The liquidation
drops in both Powell and Mead, the       of breeding stock is expected to
two largest reservoirs in the            limit cattle production for years,
Colorado River Basin.                    tighten the North American beef
    As the water level at Lake Mead      supply, and increase prices
continued its downward trend into        consumers will pay, according to
record low territory, the Bureau of      ranchers and cattle experts.

DROUGHTSCAPE
                                                         13                                            Winter | 2022
Drought Center develops new objective blend tools

By Cory Matteson
NDMC Communications Specialist                With funding from the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist, the National
                                              Drought Mitigation Center developed short- (left) and long-term (right)

T
       he U.S. Drought Monitor map            objective blends of drought-related data to help Drought Monitor authors get a
       is not strictly objective, in the      first glimpse of conditions across the U.S. The products are finer-scale, gridded
       sense that its authors use             versions of the objective blends developed by the Climate Prediction Center
expert judgment to reconcile what             early in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor.
different streams of data are saying
about drought. They also
incorporate expert local
interpretations of data, such as how       blended several sets of climate              and long-term drought, the blends
conditions are affecting people and        division data together. The “objective       provide Drought Monitor authors
the environment. But objective data        blends” were born. NOAA’s Climate            with a helpful reference to glance at
is the backbone of the process, and        Prediction Center, which developed           and build upon. But their usefulness
the mix, or blend, of objective data       the product based on the authors’            diminished over time as the
varies by region and season.               input, houses the blends online.             resolution of other data improved
     Since the U.S. Drought Monitor             Over the past 22 years, more            and the CPC-housed objective
went operational in 1999, its authors      data have started feeding into the           blends remained the same.
have followed a similar blueprint for      U.S. Drought Monitor process, and                 “Early on in the process of the
examining data they use to build the       the network of observers has grown,          objective blends, authors were able
weekly map that shows the latest           leading to a higher resolution               to use them as a ‘first guess’ to direct
drought conditions across the              depiction of drought conditions              them to areas that may need to be
country and its territories. They study    across the country. But the objective        investigated further,” Fuchs said.
key indices that provide information       blend maps remained largely                       The recently released objective
about precipitation, soil moisture,        unchanged. This year, the National           blends developed by the NDMC,
snowpack and other drought                 Drought Mitigation Center is                 unlike the CPC originals, are
indicators to see where drought            changing that with the release of            produced with gridded datasets,
conditions could develop or persist,       newly developed short- and long-             which Fuchs said produce a detailed
and they compare that information          term objective blend tools.                  picture of drought conditions across
with on-the-ground reports. Even                NDMC climatologist and                  the country. The short- and long-term
when there were fewer drought              longtime U.S. Drought Monitor                blends are produced with different
indicators, it was a lot to assimilate.    author Brian Fuchs said that the             percentages and temporal scales of
So Drought Monitor authors sought          original objective blends served a           drought indices that include the
to develop a tool that could help          unique and helpful purpose, in that          Standardized Precipitation Index, the
them. The author-led effort, which         they provided authors with two               Standardized Precipitation-
began during the first U.S. Drought        maps that they could glance at that          Evaporation Index and the NOAH Soil
Monitor Forum in 2000, led to the          showed both short-term and long-             Moisture index. Fuchs said the
creation of a weekly product that          term drought conditions across the           NDMC’s three U.S. Drought Monitor
would provide short-term and long-         U.S. With only a few days to                 authors have been using the blends
term depictions of drought conditions      synthesize numerous datasets into            internally for several months to help
based on a weighted model that             a single map that shows both short-          make the USDM maps and they were

Winter | 2022
                                                            14                                               DROUGHTSCAPE
shared internally with the full USDM    further, and welcomed feedback and          the short- and long-term scales at a
authoring group during the last         suggestions from the drought                finer resolution which could be
quarter of 2021. The new blends         monitoring and climatology                  helpful in digging into the data
went public at the start of 2022, and   communities on the new blends.              further in an area,” Fuchs said.
can be found at ndmcblends.unl.edu.         “With the NDMC’s effort, we                  The work associated with the
Fuchs said there are several pending    hopefully will go back to utilizing the     development of the new objective
research questions that will change     blends [more] as they are providing         blends was funded by USDA’s Office
the makeup of the blends even           an idea of areas of drought on both         of the Chief Economist. ❍

U.S. Drought Monitor feature provides emailed alerts
about county-level drought designations
NDMC Communications                          At the Drought Alert Request           current conditions reached D3 in
                                        site (available here), users select the     Maricopa County, and then again if

T
       he latest U.S. Drought Monitor   county where they live, or any county       conditions improved that led a
       publishes on Thursday            of interest to them in the 50 states.       drought monitor author to remove
       mornings at                      Then they select a degree of drought        D3 conditions from Maricopa
droughtmonitor.unl.edu, where users     for which they want to receive an           County. The automated emails are
can find the weekly nationwide          email alert. Selecting, for example,        tied to the weekly release of the U.S.
snapshot of drought conditions,         extreme drought (D3) conditions in          Drought Monitor and are sent out
along with a set of maps, data and      Maricopa County, Arizona, would             Thursdays at 8 a.m. Central time. ❍
tools that give key context about       result in an email being sent if
conditions where they live. Now you
can also have the latest local
information delivered to your inbox.
     The National Drought Mitigation
Center offers county-level email
alerts when drought conditions
reach or recede from a specific
drought designation – moderate
drought (D1) to exceptional drought
(D4). The feature is called the
Drought Alert Request.
     The product was developed in
2021 as part of the Drought Center’s
cooperative agreement with the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA)
and is one of several efforts to
increase accessibility of U.S.
Drought Monitor information for
users across the U.S. and its
territories. Other efforts have
included the development of tribal
area maps, state-level drought             The Drought Alert Request provides county-level email alerts when
impact tables and Spanish-language         drought conditions reach or recede from a specific drought designation.
editions of the Drought Monitor.

DROUGHTSCAPE
                                                         15                                                Winter | 2022
Which reporting system is right for you
(and why are there so many)?
NDMC Communications
                                            Condition Monitoring                     What’s new with
                                            Observer Reports                            Condition
T
      ools in the Drought Impacts

                                                                                        Monitoring
      Toolkit –
      droughtimpacts.unl.edu –
                                            (CMOR)
gather and display what people are
saying about drought in different                Users can report on dry or wet      Observer Reports
locations. Several tools, described
below, are different ways for
                                            conditions, with emphasis on
                                            drought impacts, and can upload up      (CMOR) for 2022?
individuals to share their                  to five photos. People are
experiences. The tools allow people         encouraged to file CMOR reports at
                                            regular intervals, to build a record
                                                                                    ■ We have added a
with varying interests and                                                            block of questions
capabilities to provide information         over time. Observers can submit via
                                            a browser or mobile app. Anyone           about wet and normal
related to assessing drought.
Comparing information from                  can submit an observation, with no        conditions. This will
different sources provides context          registration or training required.        help users report
and validation.                                  Learn more: go.unl.edu/              regularly in wet,
                                            CMOR_drought.                             normal and dry
                                                                                      conditions.
                                                                                    ■ The block of
                                                                                      agricultural questions
                                                                                      now asks users to rate
                                                                                      conditions on a scale
                                                                                      that the U.S.
                                                                                      Department of
                                                                                      Agriculture uses. Crop
                                                                                      and range production
                                                                                      questions include a
                                                                                      scale from very poor
                                                                                      to excellent. Crop
                                                                                      producers can also
                                                                                      check off information
                                                                                      on planting and
                                                                                      harvest status.
                                                                                    ■ Identifying
                                                                                      information. Some
                                                                                      contributors don’t
                                                                                      want to be publicly
                                                                                      identified and others
                                                                                      do. The option to
                                                                                      provide a screen name
                                                                                      lets people choose.
                                                                                    ■ Behind the scenes, we
                                                                                      are working with states
                                                                                      to allow them to tailor a
                                                                                      version of the form and
                                                                                      map for their needs,
   Left: A new block of questions helps users report regularly in wet, normal and     but with data still
   dry conditions.                                                                    flowing into a single
   Right: CMOR users now have the option to provide a screen name that lets
                                                                                      database and onto a
   people choose how or whether they would like to be identified.                     nation-wide map.

Winter | 2022
                                                              16                                 DROUGHTSCAPE
Left: The Visual Drought Atlas allows users to access photos mapped by U.S. Drought Monitor status, by land use, or by a
   subjective dry to wet assessment. Another tab shows a map linked to PhenoCam sites.

   Right: Visual Drought Atlas observers are asked to check a box describing the landscape in their photo.

Visual Drought Atlas                        Community                                     be visible to people assessing
                                                                                          drought in your state and across the
     The National Drought Mitigation
Center and partners are working to
                                            Collaborative Rain, Hail                      nation, appearing on our map of
                                                                                          drought-related tweets, put your city
create a photographic record of             and Snow Network                              and state in the user location field of

                                            (CoCoRaHS)
what different landscapes look like                                                       your Twitter profile and use
in dry, normal and wet years. The                                                         #drought in your tweet. Tweets that
NDMC is building on the trained                 Volunteer citizen scientists              include your photos of field
volunteers and archive of Field Days        install a special rain gauge and              conditions and describe how dry or
photos developed by CoCoRaHS and            record daily precipitation                    wet weather is affecting you are
the Southern Climate Impacts                observations, using either a web              particularly valuable.
Planning Program. We encourage              browser or a mobile app. They have
volunteers to upload photos over
holidays weekends across the
                                            the option to provide additional              Support
                                            condition monitoring observations
growing season, when they may be                                                              The Drought Impacts Toolkit
                                            on the effects of dry or wet weather.
likely to be out with family and                                                          and the tools in it that are hosted by
                                            The CoCoRaHS organization
friends. Upload photos here:                                                              the National Drought Mitigation
                                            provides excellent community and
go.unl.edu/photoatlas                                                                     Center have been developed with
                                            educational messaging, often
     Mark your 2022 calendars and                                                         support from the National Oceanic
                                            reinforced by energetic state
plan a photo expedition:                                                                  and Atmospheric Administration’s
                                            coordinators.
     ■ Presidents’ Day: Feb. 21                                                           Sectoral Applications Research
                                                Learn more: cocorahs.org
     ■ Memorial Day: May 30                                                               Program and the National Integrated

                                            Tweets
     ■ Independence Day: July 4                                                           Drought Information System, and
     ■ Labor Day: Sept. 5                                                                 from the U.S. Department of
     Learn more:                                If you’d like to increase the odds        Agriculture Office of the Chief
droughtimpacts.unl.edu/Tools/               that your drought-related tweets will         Economist and Risk Management
VisualDroughtAtlas.aspx                                                                   Agency. ❍

DROUGHTSCAPE
                                                               17                                               Winter | 2022
Statewide use of CMOR system helps produce clear,
stark picture of 2021 North Dakota drought
By Cory Matteson                           National Drought Mitigation Center           details on how they could provide
                                           impacts researcher Kelly Helm Smith.         valuable information to Drought
NDMC Communications Specialist
                                                The CMOR-based process of               Monitor authors by completing brief
                                           providing on-the-ground information          surveys that provide key context

F
      rom April 1 to Oct. 31 of 2021,
      no less than 30.2% of the Lower      that Akyüz examined was markedly             about current conditions. When users
      48 experienced severe drought        different from previous efforts to           add written descriptions about the
(D2) or worse. Drought covered scores      gather data across the 19th-largest          conditions, and submit photos too, the
of states and several regions              state with the fourth-smallest               data becomes clearer. CMOR reports
throughout the growing season, and         population and email it to USDM              appear on an interactive map layer
the spatial scale was evidenced in the     authors. One of those efforts, Akyüz         that is visible to the general public and
1,550 on-the-ground dispatches             said, involved weekly conference calls       to U.S. Drought Monitor authors and
submitted to the Condition Monitoring      with North Dakota’s 53 county                to state experts such as Akyuz.
Observation Reports (CMOR) system.         Extension agents.                                 “She really did a great job in the
Californians, Wyomingites,                      “And I would end up synthesizing        beginning of the season,” Akyüz said.
Minnesotans, Oregonians and                that data ... to respond to the Drought      “We knew 2020 was really bad,
residents of other drought-affected        Monitor [with] a recommended drought         especially in western North Dakota,
areas across the country shared            status,” he said. “So, you can imagine       and by the end of 2020, the moisture
condition reports and photographs to       that would be very time-consuming.”          was depleted and most ranches were
CMOR. But no state submitted reports            From that, the process evolved to       overgrazed.”
during the growing season at a rate        having Extension agents submit                    Plus, with a La Niña winter,
close to that of North Dakota.             weekly reports to Akyüz with a Google        climatologists were anticipating a dry
     North Dakotans submitted 803,         Forms survey. He would then study the        start to 2021.
more than half the nationwide total,       forms and decide which reports to                 “We knew the trouble had an
overlapping with a period when the         copy and paste into his weekly               early start, so we started early,”
state experienced the worst drought        recommendations.                             Akyüz said. “We started having
conditions it has experienced in the 21-        “And that was better than the           meetings in winter not only with the
year history of the U.S. Drought           previous method, but still it wasn’t         National Drought Mitigation Center
Monitor. For three weeks in May, nearly    good enough. Then CMOR came.”                but also with the state’s emergency
85% of the state was experiencing               In early 2021, Akyüz and Miranda        managers and the North Dakota
extreme drought (D3) or worse (the         Meehan, NDSU Extension livestock             Department of Agriculture.”
largest D3 coverage on record since        environmental stewardship specialist,             Smith said she appreciated the
2000). The top 29 weeks of D3 or           invited Smith to speak to a virtual          willingness of the Extension network to
worse coverage across North Dakota         meeting of Extension agents about            adopt a new system. Some
occurred in 2021, according to the         how CMOR works. She provided                 downloaded and used a mobile app to
Drought Monitor.
     A concentrated statewide effort
before the start of the growing season        In 2021, North Dakota experienced the most extreme levels of drought
encouraged North Dakota Extension             reported in the state since the creation of the U.S. Drought Monitor. Here are
specialists to contribute to CMOR, said       how some of the 803 Condition Monitoring Observation Reports collected
Adnan Akyüz, North Dakota state               during the growing season described what that looked like on the ground.
climatologist and professor of
climatological practice at North Dakota

                                                                                            Date: April 1, 2021
State University. Those 803 CMOR
submissions, he said, not only helped
provide valuable context that shaped
his weekly recommendations to U.S.
Drought Monitor authors but also                                                            County: Golden Valley
unlocked aid for the state’s producers
from federal assistance programs tied                                                       Description: Grasshoppers feeding
to the Drought Monitor.                                                                     on a sunflower.
     North Dakota’s season-long,
statewide effort to submit on-the-
ground drought condition reports
shows how the CMOR tool can help
researchers better understand
localized drought impacts, said

Winter | 2022
                                                            18                                               DROUGHTSCAPE
submit reports, while others sent
information from their computers. “The
results from North Dakota in 2021
really demonstrated how effective it is
                                                Date: July 26, 2021
                                                County: Grant
to have a well-established network with
a clearly defined purpose making use
of the system,” Smith said. “Adnan and
Miranda did a great job of reminding            Description: The conditions are
Extension specialists to submit weekly          severely dry throughout the whole
reports, and they helped with some              county and beyond. The southern
troubleshooting of the system, too.”            part of the county originally was
     For Akyüz, the CMOR archive                doing better in terms of moisture
would greatly streamline data                   with significant rainfall received in
                                                early June. But they have since eaten
synthesis while also allowing him to
                                                through those moisture reserves. All
continue pointing out to Drought                crops are burning up in the constant
Monitor authors important                       heat without any rainfall.
descriptions of drought from across
the state.
     “It's a mutual benefit really,” Akyüz
said. “You're understanding how the
drought is affecting the local
conditions that appear on the map, and
also to help us identify the areas that
need more attention in real time. They
also provided the pictures, which is                                                        Date: Aug. 16, 2021
sometimes worth more than a million
words.”                                                                                     County: Walsh
     When the growing season
concluded, county agents informed
                                                                                            Description: Producers are
producers that they could take a
                                                                                            planting into dry seedbeds.
break from CMOR, but Akyüz said
                                                                                            Pastures as a whole are very
that they will recommend that they                                                          short, brown and overgrazed.
use CMOR in future seasons. And                                                             Some cattle producers are
current CMOR reports, he said, will                                                         hauling water to livestock. They
help future county agents calibrate                                                         are running out of hay and the
subjective data. They will be able to                                                       pastures will not support
look at what reports were filed during                                                      animals.
portions of 2021 when areas of the
state were in exceptional or extreme
drought. In the middle of the
punishing 2021 drought, Akyüz left
Fargo to take a driving tour of some
of the areas of the state hardest hit
by drought. Talking to producers and         objective data. It allowed me to           producer assistance and aid
seeing the drought conditions for            capture the concern of the very same       programs were triggered by drought
himself provided context that other          people that are impacted by the            conditions experienced across parts
objective data cannot, he said.              drought. It opened up my mind into         of the state during the 2021 growing
     “It was a tremendous help,” he          the minds of the locals. And I think       season, “and it’s all because of the
said. “I can look at the precipitation       my job at that time was to make sure       Drought Monitor map that was
departure from normal, for example, I        that the Drought Monitor author feels      driven by CMOR (submissions) and
can look at the soil moisture data just      the same as I do in my office.”            meteorological data,” he said.
like the Drought Monitor author can              Every time the Drought Monitor              “I made a point that their reports
do. But what I cannot see is (what I         status for North Dakota changed,           made a difference,” he said. “And
can learn by) tapping into local             Akyüz created a PowerPoint                 then it was reinforced by the director
resources such as ranchers and               presentation for county agents that        of extension services how important
farmers. You’ve got to keep in mind          included not just the changed map,         their reports are, so they became
that 90% of the North Dakota                 but also bullet points that included       twice as motivated to participate. I
economy depends on agriculture. We           anecdotal objective data pulled from       think (telling them) week after week
are less than 1 million population, and      CMOR reports from a particular             and letting them know that their
we are one of the largest states in the      county or region where drought             reports really makes a big difference
union, and agriculture is everything.        status changed. When conditions            in their community was the biggest
And listening to these reports allowed       changed, responses were triggered.         motivation factor for the agents to
me to see what I couldn’t see by             Akyüz said that state and federal          participate.” ❍

DROUGHTSCAPE
                                                              19                                               Winter | 2022
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