Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy, 2009-2019
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Forest Service Global Change
Research Strategy, 2009–2019
United States Department of
Agriculture
Forest Service
Research and
Development
FS-917a
June 2009
Contents
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Overview: A Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy for the Coming Decade . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1. Research To Enhance Ecosystem Sustainability (Adaptation) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Climate Change and Ecosystem Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Current Research Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Research Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Near-Term Research Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2. Research To Increase Carbon Sequestration (Mitigation) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Climate Change and Carbon Sequestration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Current Research Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Research Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Near-Term Research Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3. Research To Provide Decision Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Decision Support for Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Current Research Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Research Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Near-Term Research Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
4. Shared Research Needs: Infrastructure, Scientific Collaboration, and Science Delivery . . . . . . . . 15
Corporate Strategies for Addressing Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Scientific Collaboration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Science Delivery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
5. Concluding Thoughts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Compiled and Edited By:
Allen Solomon, Washington Office
Richard Birdsey, Northern Research Station
Linda Joyce, Rocky Mountain Research Station
Jennifer Hayes, Rocky Mountain Research Station
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 3
Executive Summary
Climate changes already observed and those predicted for the future
differ considerably from those of the past.
Objective Approach
In keeping with the research goals of the U.S. Climate The Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy bal-
Change Science Program, the Research and Development ances research across a range of management, science, and
agenda of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agri- science delivery actions aimed at developing adaptation
culture (USDA), helps define climate change policy and and mitigation approaches to sustain healthy ecosystems.
develop best management practices for forests (both rural The following research elements serve as the organizing
and urban) and grasslands. These actions are taken to sus- mechanism.
tain ecosystem health, adjust management for ecosystem
1. Research To Enhance Ecosystem Sustainability
services (“adaptation”), and increase carbon sequestration
(Adaptation). The first element focuses on research
(“mitigation”), all under changing climate conditions. The
that will advance management options under a
fundamental research focus of the Forest Service Global
changing climate to enhance ecosystem health and
Change Research Strategy is to increase understanding of
sustainability; ensure the flow of ecosystem services,
forest, woodland, and grassland ecosystems so that they
such as water, wildlife, biodiversity, recreation, forest
can be managed in a way that sustains and provides eco-
and grassland products; and reduce losses of ecosys-
system services for future generations.
tem function from climate-altered disturbances, such
as wildfire, insects, and invasive species.
Basis
Climate changes already observed and those predicted for 2. Research To Increase Carbon Sequestration
the future differ considerably from those of the past. Ac- (Mitigation). The second element focuses on
cordingly, ecosystem services in the future will differ from research that will assist managers in (a) enhancing
those of the past. Land management must be capable of carbon sequestration via actions that could increase
enhancing adaptation of these ecosystems to increasing forest growth rates and area of forested lands;
climate changes while removing carbon from the atmo- (b) enhancing biomass extraction and utilization
sphere through sequestration in ecosystems and wood/en- research; and (c) understanding long-term carbon
ergy products. At the same time, geographic and temporal product storage pools. These capabilities cannot be
variability in climate also will increase. These geographic realized without the sustainability being supported
differences manifest in both biophysical conditions and by research for the first element.
socioeconomic systems. Therefore, land management plans
3. Research To Provide Decision Support. The third
and actions must differ locally to account for this variability.
element integrates the first two research elements by
Yet, the sum of the impacts of these local actions must be
developing decision-support tools and approaches
considered in policy, which requires these local actions be
for policymakers, planners, and land managers.
linked to national plans.
4. Shared Research Needs: Infrastructure, Scientific
To address these issues, a Forest Service Global Change
Collaboration, and Science Delivery. The fourth
Research Strategy and the concomitant research activities
element is focused on the shared research needs
are needed to balance and coordinate scientific responses.
for infrastructure, scientific collaboration, and sci-
This strategy is the scientific basis for a unified approach to
ence delivery that will incorporate the research and
managing ecosystems services within the range of uncer-
applications in the first three elements into natural
tainty provided by a changing climate.
resource planning and management.
4 Forest Service Research and Development
Overview: A Forest Service Global Change
Research Strategy for the Coming Decade, 2009–2019
The fundamental research focus of this
strategy is to increase understanding of
forest, woodland, and grassland ecosystems
so that they can be managed in a way that
sustains and provides ecosystem services
for future generations.
Objective information. Decisions being made today by public and
A century of wildland policy and management has helped private land and resource managers will have implications
create large ecosystem commons in the United States that through the next century, especially as they relate to the
produce a wide variety of goods and services enjoyed by adaptation of ecosystems.
all Americans. These ecosystem commons, however, are
The Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy will
threatened by several rapidly intensifying global forces,
help identify best management practices for urban and
including climate change, land-use change, invasive
rural forests, woodlands, and grasslands to sustain
species, and changes in the global competitiveness of
ecosystem health and a range of ecosystem services
the U.S. forest sector. In addition to traditional roles in
(“adaptation”), while also increasing carbon sequestration
supplying wood products, clean water and air, wildlife
(“mitigation”)—all under changing climate conditions.
habitat, recreation, and so on, forests also play an impor-
The fundamental research focus of this strategy is to
tant role in reducing the buildup of greenhouse gases in
increase understanding of forest, woodland, and grassland
the atmosphere by sequestering carbon. Now, they are also
ecosystems so that they can be managed in a way that
being viewed as potentially important sources of biomass
sustains and provides ecosystem services for future genera-
energy feedstocks. Alternatively, forests, woodlands, and
tions.
grasslands can become unintended sources of carbon to
the atmosphere when large wildfires and insect infesta- This document describes the current and future Forest
tions arise, or land is converted to developed uses. Climate Service research strategy for global change. Global change
change and these naturally occurring disturbances altered encompasses all of the environmental phenomena related
by climate change will threaten ecosystem functions and to global-scale anthropogenic forces: changing climate and
the suite of ecosystem services from forests and grasslands. climate variability, shifting land uses, changing atmospheric
Adjustments in natural or human systems to the chang- contaminants, increasing nitrogen deposition, and so on.
ing environment (“adaptation”) may result in beneficial The Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy reviews
opportunities or moderately negative effects. And, while the basic functions the research must serve and the strategy
forest, woodland, and grassland health and productivity needed to attain them. It is linked to related Forest Service
are increasingly vulnerable to climate change, these large research program strategies, including those focused on
ecosystem commons are habitats for plants and animals wildfire, invasive species, insects, and biomass and biofuels.
and will serve as landscapes where the process of natural Research defined herein will support the needs of the broad
adaptation to climate change is likely to occur. range of stakeholders we serve including National Forest
System (NFS) planners and managers; other Federal, State,
Land managers are being asked to address the challenges
and local land managers; private landowners; industry; and
of climate change with inadequate and often conflicting
others. The strategy overview is aimed at Forest Service
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 5
land managers and administrators; global change scientists Forests and grasslands will experience regional and local
and administrators in other Federal, State, and local agen- changes in temperature and precipitation. They are also
cies; and citizens that may wish to examine Forest Service likely to experience increases in the variability of weather,
research goals in global change. such as droughts, storms, and heat waves. Further, other
global forces—such as land use, air pollution, and invasive
Basis species—will interact with these climate changes, further
The climate of the Earth is changing and will continue to affecting forests and grasslands across the United States.
change for many decades in response to the buildup of Because the ecosystems in these regions also differ, land
greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The “finger- management actions will need to vary widely in response
print” of GHGs has been known for some time, including: to these differing climate changes and ecological effects. A
• Warming in the lower atmosphere (troposphere) fundamental challenge posed by changing climate must be
while cooling in the upper atmosphere (strato- resolved through land management—the need to remove
sphere); carbon from the atmosphere by increasing its sequestration
in ecosystems and wood/energy products, while enhancing
• Warming more at the poles than at the equator; the adaptation of these ecosystems to increasing changes
• Warming more over land than over the sea; due to climate. Additionally, managers in the NFS, in work-
ing to maintain the variety of ecosystem goods and services
• Warming more in winter than in summer; demanded by the public, may use quite different approach-
• Warming more at night than in daytime; es in specific locales than those used by other landowners
nearby because their goals and objectives may differ. For
• Increasing intensity of the hydrological cycle,
example, NFS could be surrounded by landowners focused
including more rain in high latitudes and less in
only on wildlife, recreation, or commercial timber. All of
the subtropics; and
these considerations argue for a localized approach to land
• Increasing climate variability producing more large management.
storms and longer, more intense droughts.
Land managers have conveyed a sense of urgency and a
As a result, the climate changes already measured, and real-time need for information. They are faced with plan-
those predicted in the future, differ considerably from place ning for and making climate-change-related decisions to-
to place. The Southwestern United States is encountering day. They need all available scientific information to support
increasing drought; the Northwest is undergoing longer, these decisions. The needs for this scientific information
dryer summers and declining snowpacks; and the Northeast will be honed in real time if a healthy learning environment
has seen increased rainfall and flooding, warmer winters, is developed where researchers and managers testing new
and longer growing seasons. The Southeast has had warm- adaptation strategies share their successes and failures
er winters with dryer summers; and the tropics (Puerto Rico across landscapes, regions, and agencies. Land managers
and Hawaii) have had increasing warmth and aridity, rising recently reported a variety of research needs, which can
sea levels, and tropical storms of increasing intensity. generally be divided into four categories.
First, there is the strong need simply to under-
stand the basic concepts associated with
global change relevant to land manage-
Because the ment (e.g., vocabulary, ecosystem
ecosystems in these responses, etc.).
regions also differ, land Second is a need to understand how
climate change can be integrated
management actions will need into multiple-use management (e.g.,
to vary widely in response balancing stocking densities with
other ecosystem services provisions,
to these differing climate climate impacts on fire, etc.).
changes and ecological Third, tools are needed to implement
climate change strategies in the specific
effects. forests being managed (e.g., local future
6 Forest Service Research and Development
climate scenarios, vegetation projection models, vulnerabili- approaches to ensure that forests, woodlands, and grass-
ties and risk predictions, etc.). lands have the capacity to maintain health, productivity,
and diversity while meeting carbon sequestration needs.
Fourth is the need for increased interagency cooperation
The strategy closely corresponds with the research focus
and outreach to citizens and other stakeholders (e.g., ad-
and goals of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program
jacent landscape issues, stakeholder input to decisions and
(CCSP), in particular with the needs for management and
actions, etc.).
research identified in the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment
A Forest Service national global change strategy and the Product (SAP) 2.2, “The First State of the Carbon Cycle
concomitant research needed to implement it must be Report (SOCCR): the North American Carbon Budget and
in place to balance and coordinate the scientific basis for Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle;” CCSP SAP 4.2,
managing ecosystem services within the uncertainty of “Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems,” CCSP SAP
changing climates, land use, and atmospheric chemistry. 4.3, “The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land
Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity;” and the
Approach CCSP SAP 4.4 report, “Preliminary Review of Adaptation
Forests, woodlands, and grasslands have an important role Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources.”
in mitigating climate change while adapting to climate
change. Mitigation addresses ways that ecosystems can This strategy contains four integrated elements aimed at
sequester carbon, ways to increase carbon stored in wood enhancing the management of forests, woodlands, and
products, ways to reduce fossil fuel use in manufacturing, grasslands under changing climate:
and ways that forests and woodlands can provide renew- 1. Research To Enhance Ecosystem Sustainability (Ad-
able energy from woody biomass to replace fossil fuel aptation). The first element focuses on research that
consumption. Mitigation also includes ways the agency can will advance management options under a changing
reduce its environmental footprint and lead by example in climate to enhance ecosystem health and sustain-
greening our practices. Adaptation in contrast is focused on: ability; ensure the flow of ecosystem services, such
• The vulnerabilities of ecosystems (e.g., vegetation, as water, wildlife, biodiversity, recreation, forest and
wildlife, water) to different future climates and dis- grassland products; and reduce losses of ecosystem
turbance regimes in diverse geographic regions; function from climate-altered disturbances, such as
wildfire, insects, and invasive species.
• The adaptive capacity of ecological, economic, and
social systems; 2. Research To Increase Carbon Sequestration (Miti-
gation). The second element focuses on research
• Management actions that will help sustain eco- that will assist managers in (a) enhancing carbon
system function and minimize losses of ecosystem sequestration via actions that could increase forest
services; growth rates and area of forested lands; (b) enhanc-
• Different sources of uncertainty (environmental con- ing biomass extraction and utilization research; and
ditions, models, data, resources); and (c) understanding long-term carbon product storage
pools. These capabilities cannot be realized without
• Decision-support tools to assist managers as they the sustainability being supported by research for the
plan for and adjust management in a future increas- first element.
ingly influenced by changes in climate.
3. Research To Provide Decision Support. The third ele-
This planning melds adaptation and mitigation inextricably: ment integrates the first two research elements by
There can be no sustainable increase in the national inven- developing decision-support tools and approaches
tory of carbon sequestered in our forests and grasslands for policymakers, planners, and land managers.
without maintaining the health of the Nation’s ecosystems.
The understanding needed to attain these goals also 4. Shared Research Needs: Infrastructure, Scientific
requires integrated research on ecosystem dynamics and Collaboration, and Science Delivery. The fourth ele-
the basic terrestrial carbon cycle. ment is focused on the shared research needs for
infrastructure, scientific collaboration, and science
This document balances research across a range of delivery that will incorporate the research and
management, science, and technology transfer actions. applications of the first three elements into natural
Research is aimed at developing adaptation and mitigation resource planning and management.
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 7
1. Research To Enhance Ecosystem Sustainability (Adaptation)
Because the climate changes in the 21st
century are likely to be uniquely rapid and
coupled with other stresses, including
a landscape fragmented by urban and
industrial development, natural
adaptation processes may be limited.
Photo by Larry Korhnak.
Climate Change and uncertainty (e.g., environmental conditions, models, data,
Ecosystem Sustainability resources, planning horizons, adaptive capacity tied to
Plants and animals are adapted to local climates. Paleoeco- place) so that multiple adaptation options can be identified
logical and historical ecological studies have documented for the management of forest and grasslands under chang-
that plants and animals have responded and adapted to ing climates.
past changes in these local climates. Natural adaptation
can mean adapting to the local climate or migrating to Current Research Goals
reach a more favorable climate. These adaptations often Research on adaptation is primarily focused on maintaining
result in new combinations of species redefining ecosys- ecosystem health as much as possible, thereby protecting
tems. Because the climate changes in the 21st century are the goods and services ecosystems produce (e.g., removing
likely to be uniquely rapid and coupled with other stresses, air pollutants, providing clean and abundant water sup-
including a landscape fragmented by urban and industrial plies, sustaining habitats to maintain wildlife and biodiver-
development, natural adaptation processes may be limited. sity, cycling important nutrients, reducing success of exotic
The capacity of forests and grasslands to maintain current invasive species, providing recreation and aesthetics). Identi-
health, productivity, diversity, and resilience will likely be fying the key vulnerabilities will require an understanding of
compromised under this changing climate. The efficacy the magnitude of the potential impacts, the timing of im-
of current management practices applied under a chang- pacts, the persistence and reversibility of impacts, the likeli-
ing climate will depend upon the nature of the climatic hood of impacts and confidence of those estimates, the po-
changes (spatial, temporal), the vulnerability of ecosystems tential for adaptation, the distributional aspect of impacts
to these changes, and the current status and degree of hu- and vulnerabilities (disadvantaged sectors or communities),
man alteration of the ecosystems (i.e., presence of inva- and the importance of the system at risk. Forest, woodland,
sives, departure from historical fire regimes, condition of and grassland ecosystems are set within a context of social
watersheds). Species, varieties, and even whole ecosystems and economic systems. Adaptation and sustaining health,
that are adapted to the climate of the past centuries may productivity, and biodiversity of these ecosystems will be a
become progressively more stressed and dysfunctional. At function of the adaptive capacity and interactions of all of
the same time, plants and animals that may be appropriate these combined systems.
to future climate in any given locale may currently exist in The approach to adaptation is to affect ecosystem pro-
other locations, for example, at lower latitudes or at lower cesses by altering growth, composition, and structure to
elevations in mountainous terrain. Developing an adapta- better withstand the suite of environmental stresses from
tion strategy to maintain and enhance forest and range- changing climate, pests, pollutants, storms, and unnaturally
land sustainability will involve evaluating different types of severe wildfire. As climatic stress increases in the future,
8 Forest Service Research and Development
plant and animal population adjustments, range shifts, and and uncertainty measures) for decisionmaking in
other adaptations may need to be facilitated so that species resource management and greater understanding
and ecosystems are capable of establishing and maturing of human and organizational adaptation to climate
under new climate regimes without catastrophic failure. change.
For example, reducing tree densities can enhance the water
• Focus efforts to increase and retain the sustainability
and nutrients available to remaining trees. Altering species
of ecosystem services, particularly of water supplies,
composition and managing for uneven-age forests also
wildlife and fish populations, endangered species,
increase tree resistance to pests, reduce the spread of wild-
and forest and grassland products.
fire, and enhance resistance to pollutants such as ozone
and sulfur dioxide. Some species and ecosystems may • Enhance understanding of the changing relation-
require intensive management actions to maintain viability ships between climate, land use change, and
or resilience. Others may require reduction of current stres- climate-mediated disturbances.
sors, and still others may require less intensive management • Reduce the uncertainties in climate projections and
to sustain the production of the values and services that ecosystem responses to increase adaptive manage-
healthy forests provide. ment options and improve evaluation of tradeoffs
when managing for all ecosystem services.
Research Needs
Research actions to: • Develop new methods to monitor and quantify the
impacts of climate change and elevated carbon di-
• Improve our understanding of the potential impacts oxide on ecosystem productivity and water, nutrient,
of a changing climate on the functioning of ecosys- and energy cycling.
tems and of the management actions required to
reduce the impacts. • Begin experimental testing of management and ad-
aptation options on the ground to develop strategies
• Enhance our understanding of the changing effects for risk-spreading and conserving/enhancing broad-
of climate on populations, communities, ecosystems, sense ecosystem productivity and health.
and landscapes, as well as on ecological processes at
multiple scales. Near-Term Research Products
• Expand our current knowledge of paleoecology and The research goals attainable in the next decade (near-term
of paleoclimate-vegetation dynamics to identify met- research products) that involve enhancing ecosystem resil-
rics to monitor ecosystems under a changing climate ience under increasing climate stress will focus on devel-
and to define range of variability at local sites across oping and implementing a coordinated series of regional
ecosystems.
• Develop genetic information to identify species to
plant and seed sources for reforestation, afforesta-
tion, and gene conservation.
• Document interactions between multiple
stresses under a changing climate and
potential for linear/nonlinear thresh-
old responses to climate change. The efficacy of
• Enhance our understanding current management
of the changing relationships
between climate and climate-
practices applied under
mediated disturbances, such a changing climate will
as fire, insects, and disease.
depend upon the nature
• Develop needed scientific
information and biotic and en- of the climatic
vironmental monitoring methods changes.
and models (including scalability
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 9
syntheses on the potential vulnerabilities and ecosystem terrestrial and aquatic systems and the appropriate
responses to a changing climate for application by land management responses.
managers. Specifically, Research and Development will:
• Improve Resources Planning Act (RPA) assessments
• Conduct integrated assessments of climate change by adding analysis of climate change impacts on
impacts on ecosystems to determine potential im- wildlife and water, in conjunction with the analysis
pacts on ecosystem services, assess the vulnerabilities of climate change impacts on forests linked to the
across different spatial scales including identification analysis of carbon sequestration/biofuel/energy op-
of potential “hotspots,” assess potential manage- tions and their impacts on ecosystems.
ment strategies, and uncover potential unintended
• Develop coordination for a large-scale research pro-
consequences of mitigation and adaptation actions.
gram and the associated means of support and ex-
• Develop educational tools (courses, workshops, ecution aimed at predicting national climate change
manuals, models) for all Forest Service personnel, impacts.
teaching the principles of climate change science
• Use pilot projects, particularly in the National Ex-
and its applications in planning and managing sus-
perimental Forests and Ranges, to develop and test
tainable ecosystems under changing climate.
strategies and systems for conserving and enhanc-
• Enhance existing quantitative tools used in land ing resource (e.g., soil, water, habitat, biodiversity,
management and develop new tools to assist in vegetation) productivity and health.
the analysis of the impacts of climate change on
Figure 1a. Adaptation to climate change: Eastside
ponderosa pine forest, Lassen National Forest, with
about 300 trees per acre. Stress on individual trees
from warmth and drought can be relieved in part by
thinning the stand while maintaining the age and size
structure. Photo from David Peterson, Forest Service,
Pacific Northwest Research Station.
Figure 1b. Eastside ponderosa pine forest, Lassen
National Forest, after thinning to approximately 90
to 110 trees/acre. Removed 28.5 green tons per acre,
40-percent saw-logs, 60-percent chips and biomass.
Thinning generated $124 per acre and increased
the amount of water and nutrients available to each
remaining tree. Photo from David Peterson, Forest
Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.
10 Forest Service Research and Development2. Research To Increase Carbon Sequestration (Mitigation)
Carbon sequestration research is focused
on improving understanding of the
exchange of carbon between the land,
atmosphere, and oceans, and how
global change affects these dynamics.
Climate Change and Carbon Sequestration from experiments to determine how increasing
Mitigation research is aimed at reducing atmospheric CO2 atmospheric CO2 concentrations affect forest growth
concentration by increasing the amount of CO2 removed under changing climate and air pollutant stresses.
from the atmosphere by U.S. forest and grassland ecosys- • Inventing new wood products from currently unused
tems (including agroforested and urban forest ecosystems). forest growth, developing new processes to gener-
Transferring biomass out of forests and into wood products ate fuels from cellulose more efficiently, and creating
is critical to enhancing continued carbon sequestration into new equipment that minimizes transportation and
forests. Relative to some other materials, wood requires less fuel costs while processing small diameter woody
fossil fuel in harvest and production processes. Sustainably biomass and other residues.
managed forest and range resources can replace fossil fuels
with fuels derived from biomass, which use carbon already • Performing analyses to document and reduce the
present in the global carbon cycle, rather than obtaining carbon “footprint” of forest management and
new carbon from fossil fuels. Silvicultural and genetics administrative activities within and outside the Forest
research help to increase growth and enhance sustainabil- Service.
ity. Avoiding deforestation and preserving forests also have • Continuing and improving monitoring systems at
strategic roles. multiple geographic and temporal scales that inte-
grate data from extensive inventories, remote sens-
Current Research Goals ing, and intensive observation sites, such as Forest
Carbon sequestration research is focused on improving Service experimental forests and ranges.
understanding of the exchange of carbon between the
land, atmosphere, and oceans, and how global change Research Needs
affects these dynamics; assisting public, State, and private Research actions to support increased carbon sequestration
landowners and the forest industry with integrating carbon focus on evaluating the current processes and status of car-
management into their forest management and production bon sequestration and the fate of its removals to bioprod-
goals; and assisting policymakers in balancing carbon se- ucts, more specifically:
questration and forest resilience with requirements imposed
• Synthesize and analyze what we know and don’t
by the need to sustain ecosystem services. Carbon seques-
know with respect to net carbon sequestration in
tration research includes:
forests and wood products.
• Developing new concepts and information from
• Expand monitoring to more fully represent the U.S.
monitoring and modeling of CO2 dynamics of forests
forest and range landscape, including all of the eco-
in response to management and disturbance, from
system carbon pools that are likely to be affected by
studying land use changes and their causes, and
land management and natural disturbance.
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 11• Determine the impact of land use and management • Develop cost-effective tools for verification of actual
activities (e.g., restoration, silviculture) and climate carbon sequestration at a local scale, including
change on global warming potential, which includes sequestration in soil, and address issues such as leak-
carbon, albedo, transpiration, and trace greenhouse age and baseline setting.
gases.
• Quantify the uncertainty in estimates of future
• Improve the understanding of factors controlling change in ecosystem carbon stocks and wood prod-
land-use change, the quantification of past trends, ucts in order to conduct risk analysis and build risk
and the ability to make projections and estimates of estimates into carbon management strategies.
long-term impacts on carbon stocks.
• Identify market approaches to integrate carbon
• Quantify and model spatial distribution of the forms management, biofuels production, and timber
of carbon in soil and the effects of management, cli- management.
mate, and land-use change on the time of residence
• Evaluate the social acceptance of alternate carbon
for those forms.
management policies and management practices.
• Provide estimates of local and national woody bio-
mass supply to meet the increasing interest in fuels Near-Term Research Products
from biomass. Carbon sequestration products will inform policymakers,
land managers, and citizens on the many issues involved in
• Improve technical, ecological, economic, and carbon
this strategy. Specifically, Research and Development will:
performance of forest operations to produce woody
biomass for fuels at competitive costs. • Develop a concise, approachable, and authoritative
synthesis of the literature about what is known, un-
• Develop and use life-cycle analysis to improve forest
certain, and unknown regarding carbon sequestra-
management and wood-use alternatives for bioen-
tion and management.
ergy and other bioproducts.
• Implement regional case studies on changes in land
• Provide integrated strategic evaluation of local,
management that could increase carbon seques-
regional, and national policies and management
tration on land and in products that will serve as
actions.
examples for managers.
• Augment existing decision-support tools to include
life cycle inventory and analysis (measurement of
greenhouse gas emissions and sinks, energy use, and
costs and benefits from regeneration to harvest to
material use and disposal).
• Improve RPA assessments by adding analysis of
biofuels, carbon, and commodity market supply and
demand to provide decisionmakers with important
new information about future carbon sequestration
potential.
• Work with emerging carbon markets and registries
to ensure adoption of consistent and credible
accounting rules and estimation guidelines.
Figure 2. Mitigation of climate change impacts: Monitoring forest
carbon exchange with eddy-flux towers, here at Forest Service North-
ern Research Station facilities in Howland, ME. The towers support
the apparatus used to measure the hourly uptake and release of CO2
by trees and the soil and determine impacts on carbon storage by
management treatments over daily, seasonal, and annual growth
cycles. Photo from John Lee, University of Maine.
12 Forest Service Research and Development3. Research To Provide Decision Support
Research products designed for educa-
tion of forestry personnel, as well as of
other stakeholders and the general public,
are designed to promote decisionmaking
based on best available science.
Decision Support for Climate Change • Revising available forest growth and production
Research to support policy, planning, and land manage- models and wildlife habitat models to include
ment decisionmaking is aimed at translating the avail- climate and climate variability.
able scientific information into useable management and • Revising available physical (e.g., erosion) and hydro-
planning information. Research products designed for logical models to include a wider range of extreme
education of forestry personnel, as well as of other stake- climatic events (e.g., intense rainfall).
holders and the general public, are designed to promote
decisionmaking based on best available science. Adapta- • Developing carbon accounting tools for forest
tion and mitigation research will have little impact without managers.
clearly articulated needs by practitioners, decisionmakers, • Implementing pilot land management planning
and policymakers or a clear understanding by the various studies.
publics. Hence, this research must be planned in response
• Developing education programs to teach managers
to specific decision-support needs expressed by the user
and policymakers how to use the decision-support
community.
models and documents.
Current Research Goals It is notable that many of these decision support goals do
Research for decision support is primarily comprised of not explicitly involve new scientific research per se, but
synthesis and assessment. and development of user- must be based on sound science that has evolved enough
oriented models. Decision-support research allows us to to address emerging needs.
integrate and optimize production of ecosystem services
under climate change, to modify models currently used in Research Needs
land management that will incorporate impacts of climate Research actions to enhance decision support are focused
change, to enhance data sets (including regional climate primarily on improving and creating management-friendly
scenarios) and computing capabilities that will support models that can predict ecosystem, population, and habitat
model development and application, and to carefully ana- responses at multiple scales of time and space. Specifically,
lyze and synthesize information for different audiences. actions include:
Decision-support research involves: • Develop models that integrate linkages among cli-
mate and other stress agents and responses by biotic
• Increasing our understanding of environmental
and physical components of the environment, on
needs by species and ecosystems for successful
which understanding of multiple stressors and their
adaptation.
interactions can be based.
• Assessing past, current, and future trends in carbon
storage and release.
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 13• Determine the important emergent thresholds, Near-Term Research Products
tipping points, and phase transitions of landscapes Decision-support products expected during the next few
under changing climates, by including these interac- years involve creating and modifying important resource
tions in models used to investigate climate change, management models to integrate climate change. Specifi-
so that resource managers can anticipate those cally, Research and Development will:
changes and plan accordingly.
• Downscale climate-change-model output to provide
• Continue the development of economic models and climate change scenarios for local applications, alone
incorporate them into Integrated Assessment Models and by working with other agencies (e.g., National
that simulate the complete system that begins with Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the
climate change and follows carbon sequestration, U.S. Department of the Interior) that are pursuing
ecosystem resilience, ecosystem services, forest/ this goal.
range products, and biofuels.
• Modify the widely used planning model, FVS (Forest
• Develop partnerships among scientists, stakeholders, Vegetation Simulator), and other landscape models
and communications experts to provide user-friendly to include impacts of changing climate and atmo-
information and access in a variety of formats. spheric chemistry.
• Continue to improve decision-support tools for • Modify or develop continental or regional-scale
managing carbon according to the needs of different models that can assess climate change and impacts
stakeholders, with specific enhancements involving of other stressors, such as land use and manage-
more complete accounting for all factors that affect ment, including feedbacks to the atmosphere and
global warming potential. provision of user-friendly interfaces to models that
• Continue to seek opportunities to engage in coop- currently lack them.
erative research highlighting Forest Service expertise • Work with emerging carbon markets and registries
with expertise of other Federal and State researchers. to ensure consistent and credible accounting rules
and estimation guidelines, and provide access to
decision-support tools that facilitate carbon
management.
It is notable that • Support these actions with a
many of these decision comprehensive effort to consolidate
existing data sets, to reformat data
support goals do not explicitly into common data structures, and
involve new scientific research to share these formats and data
sets with researchers in other
per se, but must be based Federal and State agencies. In so
doing, the Forest Service will coop-
on sound science that has
erate with other Federal and State
evolved enough to address researchers to form a comprehensive
program investigating climate change
emerging needs. in the Nation’s lands.
14 Forest Service Research and Development4. Shared Research Needs: Infrastructure,
Scientific Collaboration, and Science Delivery
The Forest Service must be capable of
modeling air, water, forests, woodlands,
and grasslands, including processes in
individual sites and stands, species
populations, landscapes, and regions.
Corporate Strategies for to meet the needs of Forest Service and State and private
Addressing Climate Change resource managers in land management planning and
The adaptation, mitigation, and decision support research project management. The Forest Service must be capable
required to generate the science and applications is best of modeling air, water, forests, woodlands, and grasslands,
considered within each research element described above. including processes in individual sites and stands, species
However, certain infrastructure, personnel, and technol- populations, landscapes, and regions. The Forest Service
ogy transfer needs sustain all three research elements and must be responsible for obtaining downscaled climate sce-
require a coordinated national effort within the Forest narios and formatting and maintaining data sets. The Forest
Service. This section describes the infrastructure, scientific Service also must be capable of providing the quantification
collaboration, science delivery, and funding needs to sup- and future projections needed for various assessments of
port the research elements described above. climate-change-related questions.
Other actions the Forest Service should take to enhance
Infrastructure common facilities and assets, before or during development
There are national facilities and infrastructure needs criti- of a modeling center, include the following:
cal to the success of Forest Service research in addressing
climate change. A remote-sensing capability is necessary to • Coordinate Data. The collection, consolidation, and
attain goals for carbon sequestration, ecosystem resilience, formatting of data for analysis and modeling must
bioproduct generation, and decision support. A strong pro- be significantly enhanced, as they are the basis for
gram to format and downscale climate model projections developing comprehensive, mechanistic understand-
for research and management use and the ability to moni- ings of climate change effects.
tor changes and the impacts of land management deci- • Share Data. The Forest Inventory and Analysis pro-
sions are also critical infrastructure needs. Similarly, all three gram has the most complete and comprehensive
research elements depend on maintaining a strong research monitoring database in the world. Moreover, many
base in vegetation inventory and analysis (including Forest types of important global-change research data
Inventory and Analysis), genetic analysis and selection, air/ could be collected by Forest Inventory and Analysis
land/water monitoring, modeling at different scales, and at minimal cost to improve climate change research
integrated assessment modeling to reveal unintended con- efforts.
sequences of future policies.
• Use Experimental Forests and Ranges and Research
Even with good interagency cooperation, it is clear that the Natural Areas. These cover most ecosystems in the
Forest Service needs to create a comprehensive environ- United States and hence are very appropriate in
mental simulation modeling capacity with the required per- future global change research. Experiments that
sonnel and computing infrastructure specifically designed define ecosystem responses to climate change along
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 15Figure 3. Infrastructure needs to study climate
change impacts: FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment)
experiment conducted at Forest Service Northern
Research Station facilities in Rhinelander, WI. CO2
is pumped out of pipes, controlled by sensitive
anemometers, in order to assure a high CO2
concentration at all times inside each ring. The
photo shows several replicates of experimental
(CO2, ozone) fumigations, and the control rings
(no fumigations). FACE experiments require $1 to
2 million in CO2 supplies and maintenance, yearly.
Photo by David Karnosky, Michigan Technological
University.
temperature and precipitation gradients can be con- could evolve that would facilitate communication
ducted entirely on experimental forests and ranges and learning by all involved. In addition, the Forest
and research natural areas. Moreover, most of the Service needs to build executive-level efforts to link
experimental forests and ranges and some of the with climate change activities in other management
research natural areas have long-term, spatial data agencies, such as the National Oceanic and Atmo-
that could be provided to global change scientists at spheric Administration, the Bureau of Land Manage-
minimal cost. ment, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
• Provide a competitive grants program. A competitive • Improving Incentives. Forest Service scientists often
grants program, either intra-agency or interagency, perceive significant disincentives for cross-station
open to all Federal and non-Federal scientists, is an activities, especially those that include participation
effective means to maintaining a cohesive and suc- in informal teams. Disincentives that are often cited
cessful national research strategy. include a panel process that stresses the preemi-
nence of first-authored, peer-reviewed publications;
Scientific Collaboration a spatially diffuse organization that stresses service
Climate change science is complex and requires the interac- to local clients; and a tendency to award funds us-
tive research by scientists from many different disciplines, ing station-specific trickle-down approaches. Each
only a few of which are represented at any one research of these issues must be evaluated and significantly
station or laboratory. While there is already considerable improved if the cross-station collaboration critical to
collaboration and communication between scientists in progress on global change research issues is to take
the Forest Service research and management communities, place.
much more can be done to facilitate and improve collab-
• Improving Inter-Deputy Cooperation. The Forest
orative studies across station boundaries, including:
Service is beginning to initiate, coordinate, facilitate,
• Improving Interactions. An informal virtual com- and review activities among and within the deputy
munication structure (video conferencing, Web areas to enhance the development and application
communication of preliminary results) would help of research to the NFS and State and Private Forestry
Forest Service and other ecosystem scientists interact Deputy areas. This Forest Service-wide effort, under
and share knowledge and data with climatologists, the direction of a new Forest Service Climate Coun-
ecologists, hydrologists, modelers, and other special- cil, will also provide much-needed improvement to
ists, and managers who are attempting to develop integrate the Forest Service Global Change Research
and implement adaptation and mitigation strategies Program and other Forest Service research programs,
on the ground. As funding and resources become such as Forest Inventory and Analysis and the Na-
available, a formal structure for communication tional Fire Plan.
16 Forest Service Research and DevelopmentScience Delivery • Facilitate collaboration over time with regularly
A primary force behind Forest Service research is the drive scheduled meetings and designated personnel in
to produce results that make a difference in the condition both science and management who are responsible
of the Nation’s forests, woodlands, and grasslands. The for climate change issues.
process of understanding the users and their information • Ensure that trained science communicators at the
needs, targeting scientific studies to meet those needs, station and national level coordinate with individual
developing research products that make sense to users, and scientists in the delivery of scientific knowledge to
seeking user feedback to refine those products constitute the public and policymakers.
a cycle of activities that ensure effective science delivery.
Research and Development must enhance this cycle of A second important facet of science delivery will be the
activities. Scientists must become involved in a continuing enhancement of relationships with organizations outside
two-way dialog with users to identify potential future issues the Forest Service. The Forest Service should partner with
that managers may encounter. At the same time, Research other U.S. Department of Agriculture agencies, such as the
and Development must develop different strategies for Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Ser-
different stakeholders, striving to deliver science to prac- vice, as well as with nongovernmental organizations, and,
titioners, private landowners, Federal and State resource in particular, with private consultant groups, that are used
managers, policymakers, and the public in general. often by private landowners seeking guidance on forest
and grassland management. For example, modeling tools
Science delivery is a challenging interface issue in the Forest such as iTree and COLE were developed with partnerships
Service, even where science delivery has a long tradition of between Forest Service, the private sector, and several non-
occurring with success, such as in fire science and manage- government organizations.
ment. While research-management partnerships are often
discussed, they must be institutionalized to ensure success- Research efforts by other Federal science agencies are
ful infusion of climate change science in management and also critical to Forest Service science delivery efforts. The
planning. In addition, special effort is needed to transcend National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, for
traditional or perceived barriers between research and example, is developing regional climate scenarios in its Re-
management and between different disciplinary and ad- gional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program. The
ministrative structures within the Forest Service. Activities to Forest Service vegetation modeling efforts have a vital need
enhance science delivery within the Forest Service include for these scenarios. Another example is that the Forest
the following: Service hydrology projections depend on the stream gauge
network that the U.S. Geological Survey operates. Forest
• Make major changes in the scientist review pro- Service research also will benefit by partnering with various
cess for meaningful participation by Forest Service scientific societies, such as the American Geophysical Union
research scientists in the science-delivery process. and the Ecological Society of America, that can be viewed
Currently, little advancement credit is given for non- as the honest brokers of scientific knowledge. These part-
research activities.
• Include a strategic plan to deliver sci-
ence that describes the products
desired, product life cycle, and Climate change
chain of responsibility for
those products for research science is complex and
projects at the program or requires the interactive
team level.
research by scientists from many
• Ensure that large research
teams have science-delivery different disciplines, only a few
personnel who are closely
of which are represented at
involved with research,
familiar with the team’s user any one research station or
community, and able to judge
and implement the best mecha-
laboratory.
nism for delivery.
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 17nerships can help to coordinate the synthesis, provide peer • Certification Programs. Develop a set of require-
review, and develop various products beyond the typical ments to certify managers to deal with climate
peer-reviewed journal article. The results of these interac- change issues. This would include training courses,
tions should be a series of developments aimed specifically modeling exercises, and practica.
at effective and efficient science delivery to stakeholders,
• Public Outreach. Use existing networks to educate,
including:
inform, and elicit public preferences with respect to
• Regional Centers of Excellence. Locate several all aspects of adaptation to and mitigation of climate
teams of geographic information system/modeling/ change. The Forest Service has extensive involvement
climate change specialists around the country to with the public and a strong connection to local
provide managers with the regional resources and communities concerning management of all national
information they need to successfully complete plan- forests.
ning and management projects.
• Extension Scientists. NFS and State and Private
• User-Friendly Models. Provide computer models, Forestry Deputy Areas should hire scientists and
both qualitative and quantitative, as a set to simu- technicians specifically to direct the science delivery
late, synthesize, and summarize climate change ef- into manager’s hands so that its use will be valid and
fects into desirable formats that are easy to use, easy credible. In addition, the Forest Service should work
to parameterize, and easy to initialize. with the USDA Cooperative State Research, Educa-
tion, and Extension Service, which includes approxi-
• Training Courses. Develop a set of training courses
mately 350 land and forest extension agents who
to teach managers (1) how to integrate climate
can provide global change science information to
change into common analyses, and (2) how to run
their clients.
the models.
5. Concluding Thoughts
The potential impacts on forest, woodland, and grassland ecosystems,
and the ways these systems can provide mitigation options, are of the
utmost importance.
Climate change is occurring and the Forest Service Research needs at the forefront. It was synthesized from a much
and Development branch is well poised to address this issue more detailed document, “US Forest Service Global Change
on various fronts, as well as to partner with other interested Research Plan” available on the Forest Service global
organizations to expand our knowledge base and capacity. change web page in 2009. The Strategy is closely coordi-
The potential impacts on forest, woodland, and grassland nated with other USDA global change strategy documents,
ecosystems, and the ways these systems can provide miti- including the “Global Climate Change Growth Platform,
gation options, are of the utmost importance. Forest Service, Research and Development Mission Area,”
the “Forest Service Strategic Framework for Climate
The Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy
Change,” and the “USDA Strategic Plan for Climate
Overview provides a synthesis and summary of the larger
Change Research, Education, and Extension,” all currently
research strategy. This summary and synthesis is intended
under development for release in 2008.
to lay out our current and planned future research program
on climate change with land manager and decisionmaker
18 Forest Service Research and DevelopmentYou can also read
