Global Report - SDG16DI - International IDEA
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Cover Photo by pexels-kelly-lacy This report was produced by the members of the SDG16 data initiative: SDG16DI Global Report With support from the following tap network members
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 4 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 5 Photo by pexels-markus-spiske Contents Executive summary 07 Global violent deaths and 10 sex-disaggregated data Official and non-official data 16 for conflict related deaths Trade-Related Illicit financial 22 flows in Argentina, Bangladesh and Côte d’Ivoire Global corruption barometer: 28 unveiling SDGs 16.5 and 16.6 in Latin America and the Caribbean Towards a valid and viable 32 measurement of SDG target 16.7: responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making Ensuring access to 38 Information: Independent national reviews for 16.10.2 Academic survey research 44 for SDGs:filing the data gap on peace, justice, and strong Institutions
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 6 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 7 Civil society has a crucial role to play in supporting and complementing the Executive Summary work of governments in collecting, Five years ago, the United Nations’ data gaps in SDG16 data and reduce While these and other governance monitoring, and reporting on data for (UN) Member States adopted the ambitious Sustainable Development the capacity strain on NSOs through innovative methodologies and challenges are on the rise, NSOs’ capacity to monitor these issues SDG16. Goals (SDGs) to reach by 2030, including Goal 16’s promise of strategic partnerships with official data collectors. Second, many civil is simultaneously diminished by the global health crisis. This is due peaceful, just, and inclusive societies. society data producers face fewer to reduced human and financial Founded in the same year, the bureaucratic challenges to collecting capacity for data collection, as SDG16 Data Initiative (SDG16DI) is and publishing data, allowing them to many governments grapple with a consortium of 17 organizations pilot new methodologies and produce shrinking GDP and the need to direct dedicated to the implementation and timely, high frequency data. Lastly, resources to the immediate public open tracking of progress toward the civil society data producers are less health response. The pandemic also SDG16 targets. likely to face less internal resistance introduces obstacles to gathering to producing data on politically administrative data from overwhelmed The SDG16DI is pleased to present sensitive issues, such as femicide, gun state institutions, as well as survey- its fourth annual Global Report, part violence, and corruption. For these based data via face-to-face methods. of a series aimed at evaluating global reasons, the official data discussed in In light of these challenges, the progress towards realizing the 2030 this and previous Global Reports are importance of using non-official data Agenda’s promise of peaceful, just, complemented by a peer-reviewed to monitor SDG16 is greater now than and inclusive societies. The Global compilation of methodologically ever. Report provides governments, UN robust non-official data for the SDG16 officials, and civil society stakeholders targets. Notwithstanding these concerning with a resource to help understand trends, the 2020 Global Report progress on the SDG16 targets. It Since its inception, the SDG16DI has showcases positive developments also provides an evidence base underscored the importance of SDG16 at the country level across several for identifying gaps in both the in realizing the broader Sustainable SDG16 indicators, with a particular implementation and monitoring of Development Agenda and the vital focus on partnerships between NSOs, SDG16, and for altering course to role of civil society in monitoring civil society, and efforts to mainstream accelerate implementation where the implementation of SDG16. The SDG16 indicators into broader data needed. In addition, by relying on current global COVID-19 health crisis collection processes. This Global both official data collected by National has only made this more apparent Report aims to demonstrate how Statistical Offices (NSOs) and robust by intensifying many pre-existing these positive developments tie non-official data collected by civil challenges to achieving peace, justice, into the Decade of Action and society, the Global Report provides a and inclusion. For example, there is Accountability, building on several holistic view of progress under each of a growing evidence that quarantines insights highlighted in the three the SDG16 targets. have increased rates of domestic previous SDG16DI Global Reports violence (target 16.1),1 and that the covering the availability of data on Civil society has a crucial role to play economic fallout from the crisis is all 12 SDG16 targets (2017); the triune in supporting and complementing the creating more legal needs related to aims of SDG16 for peace, justice, work of governments in collecting, housing, medical debt, and bankruptcy and inclusion (2018); and the state of monitoring, and reporting on data (target 16.3).2 Furthermore, emergency SDG16 globally according to non- for SDG16. There are a number of laws are delaying elections and leaving official data for all 12 targets (2019). strategic advantages presented by civil little room for parliamentary oversight This year’s Global Report will also society data (i.e. third-party, unofficial, (target 16.7),3,4 and the desire to control reinforce how non-official data is more or complementary data not collected the flow of unfavorable information important than ever in monitoring the by NSOs, henceforth referred to as about the pandemic has led to attacks governance impact and response to “non-official data”). First, non-official on the media and whistleblowers COVID-19 . data collected by civil society can (target 16.10)5,6 fill methodological and conceptual
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 8 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 9 The year ahead will mark five years of » Household surveys conducted of UN member states adopting decision-making and a wide range by Transparency International Access to Information (ATI) laws, in of other Political Science concepts complement governments’ accord with the official indicators and indicators such as social and data collection on SDG16 and present a SDG 16 monitoring efforts by capturing corruption in a holistic for SDG16.10, the specialized NGOs in this field are increasingly focused political trust, support for different types of regime, confidence in vital window for producing data on the manner (16.5) and illustrating the relationship between vote-buying on improving and measuring “implementation” of these statutes, political institutions, as well as to evaluate the item’s reliability in new SDG16 indicators recently adopted and trust in government (16.6). as required. The Global Forum for international context, including Transparency International’s (TI) Media Development (GFMD) is both democratic and authoritarian by the Inter-Agency Expert Group on Global Corruption Barometer coordinating efforts with local and states. interviews ordinary people international partner groups to worldwide and provides periodic conduct independent assessments Overall, the 2020 Global Report SDG Indicators (IAEG-SDGs) in 2020. nationally representative measures of the use and enforcement of ATI demonstrates a number of positive of citizens’ experience and laws in all regions of the world to developments in efforts to monitor perceptions of corruption. This supplement official government progress toward peaceful, just and data is not only crucial to tracking reporting on public access to inclusive societies. The year ahead progress towards SDG 16.5, but information. will mark five years of data collection can also be used to provide on SDG16 and present a vital window The case studies in this report far not systematically collected GFMD’s groups also rely on reports for producing data on the new SDG16 additional insights on the interplay highlight a number of positive data on. This is especially true and data from independent indicators recently adopted by the between corruption and other developments on the following for SDG 16. To achieve this, the NGOs to monitor press freedom Inter-Agency Expert Group on SDG targets. The TI case study on Latin SDG16 issues and targets: agenda sets out a clear role for civil around the world – one of the Indicators (IAEG-SDGs) in 2020. The America and the Caribbean, for society, academica, and NGOs in “fundamental freedoms” which UN SDG16DI intends, therefore, for the instance, finds some evidence that » New sex-disaggregated data and producing data. Such ‘non-official’ member states pledged to protect data, methodologies, and promising vote-buying, a form of corruption gender-relevant analysis on armed data production needs to be of the in SDG 16.10. In 2019, the official case studies discussed in this and relevant to target 16.5, is negatively violence is now available: This highest quality and is integral to UN indicator for press freedom previous Global Reports to serve as a associated with citizens’ trust in section provides recent data on SDG efforts. In this section we argue progress – documented killings of foundation for a retrospective on the government, itself a proxy for target trends on violent deaths (target 16.1) that the space for non-official data working journalists - registered a first five years of gathering SDG16 data 16.6 on effective and accountable and analysis on gender-relevant as a fundamental part of monitoring significant and welcome decline, in 2021. While the global community institutions. information on armed violence and tracking SDG 16 needs to be but a worrisome deterioration in faces unprecedented challenges for from the Small Arms Survey. It protected and supported. Without press freedom conditions in most data collection and governance more » Responsive, inclusive, participatory, describes progress made in the civil society, getting reliable and regions of the world continued last broadly in 2020, it is the SDG16DI’s and representative decision- production, collection and analysis timely data on many SDG 16 year, including in several long- hope that the case studies in this making (target 16.7) is a crucial “ Using publicly of sex-disaggregated data on dimensions will be impossible. prerequisite for achieving all policy standing Western democracies. report offer promising and innovative lethal violence, based on multiple approaches to monitoring these available outcomes aspired by the SDGs. sources, including official and » Leveraging new and existing » New survey analyzes interlinkages challenges and supporting the international trade unofficial - using the Small Arms technologies to support more International IDEA has developed a between SDG16 targets on Decade of Action and Accountability data from the Survey Global Violent Deaths open and transparent trade in set of indicators measuring target responsive and inclusive decision- that lies ahead. 16.7 as part of its Global State United Nation database. It will also touch upon the Argentina, Bangladesh and Côte of Democracy Indices, covering making, strong institutions and Comtrade database, link between arms trade (in relation d’Ivoire. Using publicly available 162 countries. These Indices can support for democracy in multiple GFI’s analysis to target 16.4) and gender, with the international trade data from the function as valid and viable proxy countries throughout the world. example of the Arms Trade Treaty United Nation Comtrade database, demonstrates that indicators of the hitherto missing The World Values Survey (WVS) and gender-based violence risk GFI’s analysis demonstrates that in cooperation with the UNDP trade misinvoicing assessment. trade misinvoicing is a persistent official indicators has conducted a pilot of a new is a persistent challenge to significantly reducing measure of SDG indicator 16.7.2 on » New assessment gathers timely challenge to » Use of high-resolution geo-spatial illicit financial flows across inclusive and responsive decision- information on backsliding in significantly reducing data improves data collection on nations, as called for in SDG 16.4. Right to Information and Access to making. The project has been illicit financial flows violence and conflict at the local However, new developments in Information (RTI/ATI) commitments implemented within the 7th round price-filter and distributed ledger across nations, as level in Syria, Colombia, Global. during the COVID-19 pandemic of the WVS surveyed worldwide The sustainable development technology offer an array of tools in 2017-2020. The new WVS called for in SDG agenda incorporates an ambition for government and customs in Canada, Indonesia, Mongolia, survey data available for scholars, 16.4.” to produce new and novel data officials to create systems of open Pakistan, Serbia, Sierra Leone, policymakers and NGOs in free South Africa, Tanzania, Tunisia and on a range of topics that the and transparent trade and overall access allows exploring correlations Ukraine. With a growing majority international community has so greater financial transparency. between inclusive and responsive
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 10 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 11 Photo by Jay Rembert on Unsplash Chapter The collection and analysis of sex-disaggregated data on violent deaths is essential for understanding and responding to various kinds of violence. COUNTRIES Global The Small Arms Survey is a global The collection and analysis of centre of excellence that generates sex-disaggregated data on violent impartial, evidence-based, and deaths is essential for understanding RELEVANT SDG16 policy-relevant knowledge and and responding to various kinds of TARGET(S) analysis on all aspects of small arms violence. Lethal violence, including 16.1: Significantly reduce and armed violence for governments, firearm violence, is highly gendered, all forms of violence policymakers, researchers, and civil with the majority of both victims and and related death rates society. The Survey is an associated perpetrators being male, and with everywhere 16.4: By 2030, programme of the Graduate Institute most of the female victims killed as a significantly reduce illicit of International and Development result of gender-based violence (GBV) financial and arms flows, Studies in Geneva, Switzerland and committed by men. The Small Arms strengthen the recovery has monitored armed violence since Survey Global Violent Deaths database and return of stolen assets its inception in 1999. (GVD) estimates that 596,000 people and combat all forms of organized crime lost their lives to lethal violence in This section will provide new data on 2018, including 93,700 (16 percent) violent death trends (target 16.1) as well women. In absolute numbers, this as offer an analysis on gender-relevant is the third highest figure of women information regarding armed violence. victims since 20047. This case study If used to measure impacts, data Global violent deaths describes progress made in the should not only serve as a diagnostic, production, collection, and analysis but become part of the solution. With of sex-disaggregated data on lethal DATA METHOD this in mind, the role of non-official and sex-disaggregated violence in conflict and non-conflict Multiple-source database data is key in measuring armed settings, based on multiple sources— analysis violence, especially when it comes to both official and unofficial. gendered aspects of such violence. data However, despite Agenda 2030’s DATA SOURCE pledge to ‘leave no one behind’, sex- http://www.smallarmssurvey. disaggregated data are still lacking for org/about-us/highlights/2020/ SDG indicators, including Target 16.1. highlight-gvd-update-2020.html
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 12 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 13 While the overall proportion of female FIGURE 1 Global violent deaths (GVD) disaggregated by sex and instrument, 2018. victims of lethal violence remained at 16 per cent globally, the 93,700 women and girls who lost their life to violence GVD among women 8% 16% GVD by firearm among women in 2018 were nearly as many as in 2017, GVD among men which was the highest number recorded GVD by firearm among men since 2005. The gender relevance of most reflected a decrease in the number violent deaths datasets is currently of male victims. Nevertheless, men “ A majority of low. A majority of countries have continue to be much more likely than countries have only recently started to provide women to become victims of lethal only recently sex-disaggregated homicide data, violence, with a 5:1 ratio. In addition, started to provide while the numbers of female fatalities they are also overrepresented among in ongoing armed conflicts are victims of firearm-related killings, sex-disaggregated almost completely unknown8. The making up 92 percent of such victims homicide data, GVD database recorded a substantial in 2018, globally9. while the numbers reduction in lethal violence between of female fatalities 2017 and 2018. On the basis of the The 2020 update of the GVD database is the first edition that allows for in ongoing armed available data and estimates, however, analysing disaggregated data on conflicts are the number of women killed did not decrease at the same pace. While the female victims of firearm killings for almost completely overall proportion of female victims of 2004–18. While the rate observed unknown” lethal violence remained at 16 per cent in 2018—0.59 per 100,000 female globally, the 93,700 women and girls population—is in line with women who lost their life to violence in 2018 victimization trends regarding firearms were nearly as many as in 2017, which killings across the time monitored, the was the highest number recorded absolute number of women killed with since 2005. The reason why the a firearm in 2018 (17,200 globally) is, by substantial reduction in lethal violence a small margin, the highest during this from 2017 to 2018 did not translate 15-year period. into an equally decreased number of female victims is due to the fact that 92% 84% most of the reduction came from de-escalating armed conflicts. Most of those dying directly from conflict- related violence are men; thus, most of the 2018 reduction in violent deaths
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 14 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 15 The 2020 update of the GVD database is Femicide10 is—or may be becoming— a Secondly, states are encouraged distinct form of violence that is to support research that helps to “Currently, numerous particularly visible in areas or countries increase our understanding of the the first edition that allows for analysing countries collect data on femicides, that are otherwise relatively peaceful. In several European countries, for gendered impact of armed violence in the context of the ATT. These disaggregated data on female victims of either as anonymized statistics or in the example, the number of women killed through homicide exceeds that of recommendations are echoed in a number of recent UN General firearm killings for 2004–18. men; and a majority of homicides Assembly First Committee and UN form of registries with women victims can be counted Security Council resolutions15. Better (or memorials), with as femicides. Currently, numerous data in line with relevant indicators the latter including countries collect data on femicides, would help ATT states parties to more victims’ names and either as anonymized statistics or in accurately assess GBV risks in the the form of registries (or memorials), context of arms transfers, in line with the circumstances with the latter including victims’ names ATT Article 7(4). While femicide is one of the killings, thus and the circumstances of the killings, obvious indicator that exporting states acknowledging thus acknowledging those who fall should consider, the reality is that due those who fall victim victim to such violence. Femicide to sporadic reporting and recording, to such violence.” observatories have been established making risk assessments of this kind is in many countries, as the UN Special extremely difficult16. Rapporteur on Violence Against Women has called for11, and serve a mix Sex-disaggregated data is key for of monitoring and advocacy-oriented adding context and granularity to FIGURE 2 functions12. the SDG indicators. Many of the SDG Global female violent deaths, 2004-2018 16 indicators, however, start from In line with SDG Targets 16.1 and 16.4, pioneer data collection, often lacking small arms control instruments, such disaggregation. This also applies to key as the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), also data on violent death rates, as per SDG highlight the gendered aspects of Indicators 16.1.1 and 16.1.2. Civil society 2,94 armed violence, as well as the need and academia therefore play important 3.00 for disaggregated data and gender roles in collecting and analysing this 2,78 2,69 2,67 analysis. The ATT explicitly recognizes data. Ultimately, both official and 2,61 2,60 2,59 2,60 2,62 2,57 2,58 the connection between the arms independently generated data will be 2.50 2,51 2,52 2,48 VIOLENT FEMALE DEATH RATE 2,43 trade and GBV, as expressed in ATT needed to produce a picture of the Article 7(4)13. In preparation for, and gendered impacts of lethal violence ( PER 100,000 WOMEN) 2.00 during, the Fifth Conference of that is simultaneously holistic and States Parties to the ATT (CSP5) in detailed. This is increasingly more 1.50 2019, states and civil society alike pressing, as the Covid-19 pandemic focused on the implementation and may have adverse impacts on armed practicalities of Article 7(4), i.e. how violence as well. A rise in demands for 1.00 to assess—prior to authorization for small arms17, exacerbation of conflicts, 0.59 0.57 0.58 0.57 0.58 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.61 0.62 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.59 export—the risk of arms being used and an increase of domestic violence 0.50 in GBV in the importing country. Two cases18 are all examples of negative action points in the CSP5 final report possible effects related to lethal are particularly relevant. Firstly, states (armed) violence. Civil society and 0.00 parties are encouraged to: consider academia can contribute and support 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 gender aspects; collect disaggregated the collective efforts through unofficial data and include it in their national data, research, and analysis. crime and health statistics, including disaggregated data on the gender of Global female violent death rates Global rate of women killed by firearm victims of armed violence and conflict; and make this data publicly available14.
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 16 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 17 Photo by Chuttersnap on Unsplash Chapter Throughout its 75-year history the UN has never officially and systematically collected data on where wars are happening, how many are killed, and what the broader consequences of these wars are. UN and data on war COUNTRIES Syria, Colombia, Global This summer marked the 75th Throughout its 75-year history the UN anniversary of the signing of the has never officially and systematically Charter of the United Nations started collected data on where wars are collecting signatures. The first happening, how many are killed, and line of the Charter states that we what the broader consequences of ‘the peoples of the united nations these wars are. Perhaps paradoxically, determined to save succeeding in the last decades anyone has RELEVANT SDG16 generations from the scourge of been able to access the impressive TARGET(S) war’19 At the very heart of the of the UN data catalogue and get up to UN’s mission from the very start were date information on a vast range of SDG 16.1.2: Conflict- attempts to prevent or, if prevention social, demographic, and economic related deaths per 100,000 population, by was not possible, manage wars and indicators. You want to know what sex, age and cause the destruction and carnage that the population growth and infant follows in the wake of war. To this mortality levels were in the Central core effort, the UN also added an African Republic (CAR) last year, Official and non-official ambition to promote economic and no problem: just go to http://data. social advancement – as a necessary un.org/. But if you want to know how tool for achieving peace. For many people were killed in war in data for conflict related economic and social advancement, CAR last year, no such luck. DATA METHOD the UN promptly and diligently built an extensive system for collecting deaths News sources, expert and aggregating the data needed coding, registry data to track, monitor, and understand how to achieve such advancement. Yet, no comparable effort was made to extend such efforts to war and conflict.
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 18 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 19 Since the pioneering work of Lewis Fry Richardson researchers have been compiling lists and databases of conflict and war. FIGURE 3 It’s all political Battle related deaths, global aggregate, 1946 - 201824 “ It’s ‘troubles’ in The reason for this is quite simple. Instead someone else stepped into Northern Ireland and Though it should be straightforward, the void. Since the pioneering work UK, ‘armed conflict’ following international law, to classify of Lewis Fry Richardson researchers in Colombia, or something as ‘a war’ the act of have been compiling lists and 600000 invariably, terrorism doing this is inherently political and databases of conflict and war.20 And 550000 intensely sensitive. Consequently, the since the advent of the University of (probably the modal 500000 UN has never been able to compile Michigan based ‘Correlates of War’ category, from the a list of active wars. You could infer project which started collecting 450000 US, via Spain, to BATTLE DEATHS such a list, to a large extent, from and updating data on war in 1963, 400000 Russia and so on and Security Council discussions, but you everyone has been able to access 350000 so forth).” wouldn’t find it readily accessible reliable, transparent, and routinely 300000 anywhere. updated data on where wars occur 250000 and who are engaged in them.21 Especially when it concerns civil wars Presently, the most widely used such 200000 states rarely want to say that they are database is the Uppsala Conflict Data 150000 experiencing war. Instead they get Program (UCDP) and Peace Research 100000 creative. It’s ‘troubles’ in Northern Institute Oslo (PRIO) Armed Conflict Ireland and UK, ‘armed conflict’ in 50000 Database.22 This database, which has Colombia, or invariably, terrorism since been expanded and made more 0 (probably the modal category, from granular and is now regularly updated 1946 1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018 the US, via Spain, to Russia and so by UCDP, records wars, between on and so forth). Of course, it could countries and within countries, all simply be called war. Since the and battle deaths for all the world’s founding of the UN states have countries from the present going protected their right to ultimately back to 1946. It is, of course, free and label something as war or not. open to anyone and everyone who Consequently, the UN has never been wants to use it. And users routinely allowed to say for themselves that include UN organizations, see for this is war, and for the same reason instance discussions of trends in they have never been able to compile conflict in the UN and World Bank a list or to monitor when and where Pathways for Peace report.23 wars happen. This doesn’t mean that the UN at the country and operational level doesn’t monitor, for instance, people killed in battle, but it doesn’t happen systematically at the political level.
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 20 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 21 Since the escalation of violence started in Syria in 2011, the country has suffered a devastating war that has crippled infrastructure and state institutions. Trends in conflict Using this data, we can easily look at we have seen upsurges in both the War (1946–1949) and the Korean War Syria is an extreme case, but the In any case, both these examples trends in conflict deaths over time. number of conflicts and the severity (1950–1953). Wars, such as Vietnam, world all routinely sees wars of highlight that it is incumbent on Note that the chart shows ‘battle of war. Does this portend an end to Iran-Iraq, Afghanistan, DRC, and “In 2015 Human this size and scope. It is absolutely us, the international civil society, to related deaths’ which is narrower in the waning of war? We also know Ethiopia-Eritrea account for the Rights Watch inconceivable that a Syrian National produce such data, using standards scope than the ambition of SDG 16.1.2 that battle casualties do not follow subsequent peaks. The general pattern reported that a statistical office would be able to just as strict and rigorous as those to record all conflict related deaths the same pattern as the number of is one of decline, with each peak falling collect reliable and updated data on used by state agencies for other number of people and to disaggregate this by sex, age, armed conflicts. The number of battle short of its predecessor. The small rise battle casualties in such a situation. types of data. As the SDG 16 Data and cause. We know, because of casualties peaked in the early 1950s. in battle casualties evident since 2011 had been killed Yet, it is precisely during conflict that Initiative, its many members, and the this, that since the end of the Cold Despite the low number of conflicts, results mostly from the civil war in as guerillas by updated statistics on deaths is most many organizations working on this War, the trend in armed conflict has this period contained some of the Syria, as that was winding down battle Colombian armed needed, meaning we have to think not part of the Data Initiative, have been generally downward as seen most deadly wars in the post–World deaths are again declining. forces when in differently. For the second reason, shown, we do that just fine. in the above figure. Yet since 2011, War II era, notably the Chinese Civil fact they were not we have to acknowledge that even countries with ostensibly democratic combatants at all” regimes will be tempted to present biased statistics of conflict deaths. The sustainable development agenda This could involve the pattern of labelling deaths as part of police No indicator on war was included in the the world. But at least the UN member to. Second, for most SDG 16 indicators actions and not as conflict casualties, Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). states now agreed that such data we can not simply trust the states to thus biasing the number of deaths Some countries pushed for one, but it should exist.25 produce reliable information. They downward, but it could also be the was vetoed. In the final MDGs report, will have all manners of incentives to opposite. In 2015 Human Rights then Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon Moreover, the sustainable development disguise, bias, or circumscribe data on declaration clearly and unequivocally Watch reported that a number of wrote that ‘war remains the largest conflict deaths, human rights abuses, people had been killed as guerillas by obstacle to development’ and the gave civil society a voice and a role in or the extent to which their institutions production of data for the agenda. That Colombian armed forces when in fact member states were finally able to are accountable. they were not combatants at all.26 This agree that such an indicator should be is, production of such data is not under the essential and sole purview of states For the first reason, present day Syria became known as the ‘false positives’ part of the sustainable development scandal where the Colombian army agenda. The academic community, in and their National statistical agencies. represents an extreme case. Since For conflict deaths, as well as for many the escalation of violence started in murdered civilians as labelled it as particular, was somewhat dismayed regular conflict casualties to boost that the Inter-Agency Expert-Group on other SDG 16 indicators, this role for Syria in 2011, the country has suffered civil society is absolutely crucial. For a devastating war that has crippled their statistics. Thus, actually, biasing SDGs voided 50 years of cutting-edge killings upwards. research and decided that neither two reasons in particular. First, many infrastructure and state institutions. methodologies nor data existed to countries most hit by for instance The Syrian government lost control collect data, the official classification conflict quite simply will not have the over large parts of its territory and still of a Tier III indicator, on and track the systems, the resources, or the time to does not control its entire country. number of conflict related deaths in collect such data even if they wanted
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 22 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 23 Photo by Chuttersnap on Unsplash Chapter Trade revenues are critical sources UNCTAD and UNODC are currently of income for developing countries.27 preparing the latest assessment However, each year money is lost to of the conceptual framework trade-related illicit financial flows, document that will detail the latest which undercuts this valuable refinement of the indicators in a revenue-generating activity. joint publication expected in July 2020. Work is progressing on actual The act of trade misinvoicing, in methodological sets to be tested which importers and exports seek in-country in 2021 and based on to hide illicit flows within the regular these tests, final indicators will commercial trading system by either be developed into guidelines for under or over-pricing their imports countries to follow. UNCTAD and or exports, is a major component UNODC will also jointly submit a of illicit financial flows. Typically, report to the United Nations General trade misinvoicing is undertaken to Assembly (UNGA) in September 2020 illicitly move proceeds from illegal to provide an overview of the mix activities or corruption, and can of the work being done on statistics also be used to evade income taxes, used for the indicators and by policy customs duties, value-added taxes colleagues in both agencies. COUNTRIES (VAT) and currency controls. From a Argentina, Bangladesh, development perspective, it deprives So far, the agencies have been Côte d’Ivoire developing country governments of delayed in part by trying to figure an important source of tax revenues what the best data sets are to that could be used to fund efforts to monitor the SDG16.4 indicators going achieve the Sustainable Development forward. The corresponding lack of Goals (SDGs) by the 2030 deadline. data has so far hindered the ability of experts to comprehensively assess This problem is relevant to SDG progress on SDG 16.4 and indicator RELEVANT SDG16 16.4, “By 2030, significantly reduce 16.4.1 on estimating the total value TARGET(S) illicit financial and arms flows, of illicit inflows and outflows. In strengthen the recovery and return this respect, while methodologies 16.4: By 2030, significantly of stolen assets and combat all are being devised by UNCTAD and reduce illicit financial and arms flows, strengthen forms of organized crime” and UNODC, non-official data gathered the recovery and return of specifically indicator SDG 16.4.1 “Total by non-governmental organizations stolen assets and combat all value of inward and outward illicit can help supplement the data gaps forms of organized crime; financial flows (in current United in knowledge. 16.4.1: Total value of inward States dollars), which suffers from and outward illicit financial a lack of officially reported data. In As part of its work to analyze flows (in current United October 2019, at the tenth meeting non-official data pursuant to States dollars) of the Inter-agency and Expert measuring progress on SDG 16.4.1, Trade-Related Illicit Group on Sustainable Development Global Financial Integrity (GFI), a Goal Indicators (IAEG-SDGs), Washington, D.C.-based think tank, indicator 16.4.1 was reclassified as examined 4,860 bilateral trade financial flows in a Tier II level indicator, with United relationships for trade-related illicit Nations Conference on Trade and financial flows across 135 developing Development (UNCTAD) and United countries and 36 advanced DATA METHOD Argentina, Bangladesh Nations Office on Drugs and Crime economies by trading partner, Partner-Country method of (UNODC) listed as potential host commodity, region and percent of analyzing international trade custodian agency(ies).28 total trade, among other indicators, data to identify the value and Côte d’Ivoire to identify the scale and scope of gaps which are indicative of trade misinvoicing in the global trade misinvoicing economy.29
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 24 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 25 Since the escalation of violence started in Syria in 2011, the country has suffered a devastating war that has crippled infrastructure and state institutions. It is important to note that while the in 135 countries, this case study FIGURE 4 term “illicit financial flows” (IFFs) may discusses findings for three countries “For example, if Sums of the Value Gaps Identified in Trade Between Argentina, Bangladesh and Côte include many types of activities, such chosen at random across three d’Ivoire and 36 Advanced Economies, 2008-2017, in USD Millions Ecuador reported as trade misinvoicing, smuggling, tax continents: Argentina, Bangladesh exporting US$20 evasion, etc., this analysis focuses and Côte d’Ivoire, to demonstrate the on trade misinvoicing, or the trade- breadth of trade-related IFFs. million in bananas related aspects of illicit financial flows. to the United States It does not address all forms of IFFs Table A below provides three 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average in 2016, but the US and is therefore not a full picture of samples of GFI’s value gap findings, reported importing the total value of IFFs, which is likely showing the data for Argentina, Argentina 6,105 4,055 5,404 6,476 6,246 6,496 5,693 4,765 4,473 4,717 5,443 Bangladesh and Côte d’Ivoire. For only $15 million in to far exceed these estimates. This example, in the first row for Argentina bananas, this would point further exemplifies the need for the year 2008 is the figure Bangladesh 2,558 2,457 3,091 3,358 3,198 3,799 N/A 4,578 N/A N/A 3,291 for greater official and non-official reflect a mismatch, $6.1 billion, representing the sum Côte d’Ivoire 1,522 1,493 1,347 1,397 1,160 1,160 1,424 1,309 1,262 1,357 1,343 data alike in measuring the total or value gap, of value of IFFs globally, given that GFI’s of all of the value gaps identified $5 million in the estimates of trade misinvoicing, one within Argentina’s bilateral trade Note: N/A indicates a year for which there was no reporting to UN Comtrade by the country. reported trade of this facet of the IFF problem, are so large. relationships with each of the 36 advanced economies. In other words, product.” For its analysis, GFI evaluated trade there was a value gap of $6.1 billion statistics supplied by individual between Argentina and all of its FIGURE 5 country governments to the United advanced trading partners in 2008. Nations Comtrade database30 in The far-right column provides the Total Value Gaps Identified Between Argentina, Bangladesh and Côte d’Ivoire and 36 order to identify the “value gaps,” or average US dollar amount for the Advanced Economies, 2008-2017, as a Percent of Total Trade mismatches, in the reported data. sums of value gaps identified for each For example, if Ecuador reported developing country’s bilateral trade exporting US$20 million in bananas between 2008-2017. to the United States in 2016, but Correspondingly, Table B shows the 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average the US reported importing only $15 million in bananas, this would reflect a value gaps as a percent of a country’s total bilateral trade with the 36 Argentina 18.60 16.74 17.35 16.92 16.76 17.51 18.02 17.55 15.75 16.23 17.14 mismatch, or value gap, of $5 million in the reported trade of this product. advanced economies for each year Bangladesh 15.62 14.57 15.30 13.82 13.25 14.58 N/A 15.18 N/A N/A 14.62 While the available data is not perfect examined, as well as the ten-year and country figures are not exact, average. For example, the first row for Côte d’Ivoire 22.71 23.53 20.76 19.61 17.50 17.07 18.66 17.97 16.69 16.03 19.05 the resulting value gap estimates Argentina for the year 2008 shows provide an order of magnitude view 18.6 percent, meaning that the value Note: N/A indicates a year for which there was no reporting to UN Comtrade by the country. of each country’s trade misinvoicing gap denoted in Table A ($6.1 billion) is challenge, reflecting the scale of the equivalent to 18.6 percent of the value problem. Additionally, while the full of Argentina’s total trade with the 36 report examines trade misinvoicing advanced economies in 2008.
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 26 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 27 In its full analysis of 135 developing While developing countries wait for countries, GFI identified a total value such technology to be commercially gap of $8.7 trillion in trade between available, viable and affordable, non- developing and advanced economies official data such as GFI’s analysis of between 2008-2017. Comtrade records can help fill the gap in official SDG 16.4.1 data reporting.s. Analyzing value gaps as a percent of One of the most significant When the declared value is more While developing countries wait for total trade is illuminating, because challenges in assessing the problem than one or two orders of magnitude such technology to be commercially “One of the the size of value gaps in dollars may of trade misinvoicing is that those off the recent prevailing global available, viable and affordable, most significant often reflect the size of a country’s who engage in it are trying to average price, it is a strong indication non-official data such as GFI’s challenges in economy, and less so the amount of hide it. This limits even the best of attempted trade misinvoicing analysis of Comtrade records can potential illicit activity. For instance, assessments and overall estimates of and thus can be flagged for further help fill the gap in official SDG 16.4.1 assessing the despite the fact that Argentina’s macro-level analyses of international investigation. Likewise, attention has data reporting. Such non-official problem of trade average value gap is $4 billion trade data. However, it is possible been drawn to efforts to develop data sources and analysis can help misinvoicing is that greater than Côte d’Ivoire’s, a larger to identify trade misinvoicing by distributed ledger technologies, such experts better understand the those who engage percent of Côte d’Ivoire’s total trade using micro-level transaction data as blockchain, to create a new type problems of illicit financial flows in it are trying to is routinely misinvoiced, at 19.05 to cross-reference the invoices of of comprehensive international trade and their corrosive impacts on hide it.” percent, compared to 17.14 percent importers and exporters in both the ledger to better track the distribution, financing sustainable development. for Argentina. This indicates that exporting and importing countries. routes and quantities of globally Data is crucial to understanding and despite having a smaller economy Unfortunately, getting access to such traded goods. In practice, all crates curtailing IFFs globally, particularly as than Argentina, trade misinvoicing data can be difficult, akin to a needle and containers would have scannable developing countries struggle with is happening at a higher rate in Côte in a haystack. barcodes accessible to customs funding shortfalls and the economic d’Ivoire. officials and investigatory agencies brunt of the Covid-19 pandemic. There are, however, promising the world over, that would reveal the In its full analysis of 135 developing new uses of technology to help origin of the good and the destination countries, GFI identified a total value customs agencies, central banks country, along with important tax and gap of $8.7 trillion in trade between and tax authorities to identify tariff information. Trade data would be developing and advanced economies trade misinvoicing – in real time recorded in a way that is transparent, between 2008-2017. In just 2017 – when it can be stopped. Using a updating in real-time and very difficult alone, the total value gap in trade method known as price-filtering, to falsify. Advancements in this area between all developing and advanced new specialized database tools31 are slow, but hold much promise for economies was $817.6 billion. can enable customs officials to increasing internationally available cross-check the value of cargo as and accessible trade data. declared on an invoice submitted by an importer or exporter against the prevailing average global price for the same good.
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 28 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 29 Photo by kobby-mendez on unsplash Chapter The potential of bribery rates to shed light on other manifestations of corruption is limited. COUNTRIES Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago and Venezuela Back in 2015, the Inter-Agency and Moreover, not only is it unrealistic to (Latin America and the Expert Group on SDG Indicators expect that multidimensional targets Caribbean). (IAEG-SDGs) selected two official for broad concepts like corruption indicators for SDG target 16.5, which can be captured by two indicators relates to the control of corruption. on bribery, as is the case for target These are the proportion of persons 16.5, but in many countries around (16.5.1) and businesses (16.5.2) within the world the necessary data is a given country that had at least one simply not recorded.33 Additionally, contact with a public official during topics like corruption are politically RELEVANT SDG16 the previous 12 months who either sensitive, which may leave the TARGET(S) paid a bribe or were asked for a bribe reliability of the figures provided by 16.5: Substantially reduce by those officials. national statistics offices open to corruption and bribery in all question. their forms 16.6: Develop Albeit important, these two indicators effective, accountable and alone are insufficient to measure These three issues concerning transparent institutions at all if and how well countries are SDG16.5 monitoring processes, levels. “substantially reducing corruption namely the inadequacy of indicators and bribery in all their forms”, as 16.5.1 and 16.5.2 alone to capture the formulated in the wording of the complex phenomenon of corruption, Trade-Related Illicit target. Reported bribery rates the unavailability of official data as are best suited to capturing the well as the potential unreliability Global corruption incidence of petty corruption, that of data that does exist can all be Financial Flows in is, the everyday abuse of entrusted at least partially addressed by DATA METHOD power by public officials in their incorporating data produced by barometer: unveiling Global Corruption interactions with ordinary citizens, civil society organisations. Apart Argentina, Bangladesh Barometer, a nationally who are typically trying to access from plugging current data gaps, representative public basic goods or services.32 The the Global Corruption Barometer SDGs 16.5 and 16.6 in Latin opinion survey conducted potential of bribery rates to shed light (GCB) developed by Transparency and Côte d’Ivoire mainly through face-to- on other manifestations of corruption International (TI) illustrates the face interviews in the is limited. need for complementary data to America and the Caribbean local language (Computer reveal the extent of corruption Assisted Personal and the effectiveness of national Interviewing, CAPI). responses to it in both a holistic and authoritative manner.
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 30 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 31 Although Brazil presents one of the Better control of corruption requires lowest bribery rates in the region, the better data. number of respondents who have been offered money or a favour in exchange for their vote is remarkably high. Since 2003, TI has carried out The GCB 2019 explored not only Latin But there is more – whereas Incorporating the GCB dataset allows likely to distrust the government when ten editions of the GCB - a public Americans’ involvement with bribery vote-buying relates exclusively for not only an improved monitoring compared to those who were never “Whereas no Latin opinion survey across the globe, when accessing public services but to elections, political corruption capacity of SDG targets 16.5 and bribed to cast a vote for a particular American and asking ordinary citizens about their also their experiences with vote- encompasses many other arenas, 16.6, but also an assessment of the candidate or party. Caribbean country experiences and views on corruption. buying. This measure helps to unveil a including fraudulent political funding, linkages between these targets. It is The detrimental effect of one form of TI’s GCB follows high survey facet of political corruption36 that the illicit lobbying, and in fact any plausible to hypothesise that high officially reported corruption, vote-buying, on trust that standards and yields periodic and SDG official indicators are unable to circumstance in which political actors levels of vote-buying correspond to data on SDG 16.5.1 nationally representative measures capture: the extent to which political act for private gain to the detriment of low levels of trust in the government. this incipient analysis suggests for in 2019, in the of bribery and attitudes towards integrity is compromised by one form the public interest. Political corruption Being bribed to vote might have an eight Latin American and Caribbean same year the GCB corruption, amongst many other of election abuse. In Latin America as a whole is, in turn, merely one of impact on how individuals regard countries is particularly alarming surveyed more than corruption-related topics. and the Caribbean, almost 25 percent many illicit forms of behaviour that fall the functioning of the country’s when taking into consideration that dwindling citizen trust itself 17,000 citizens in Whereas no Latin American and of the respondents were offered a under the overarching umbrella term government and the reliability of its has the potential to cripple modern bribe or a special favour to vote in a “corruption”. This complexity clearly politicians and other public officials. 18 countries in the Caribbean country officially reported democracies, which rest upon popular certain way during the previous five demonstrates the need for a range To test whether this connection exists, region.” data on SDG 16.5.1 in 2019,34 in the years. Countries with the highest of complementary data sources to TI used GCB data to run logistic legitimacy.40 Yet vote-buying patterns same year the GCB surveyed more levels of reported incidences of provide an accurate picture of global regressions with trust in government in the region and their connection than 17,000 citizens in 18 countries vote-buying are Mexico (50 percent), progress towards SDG 16.5. as the dependent variable and with citizen trust might have gone in the region.35 The results revealed Dominican Republic (46 percent), vote-buying as the variable of interest. unnoticed were it not for TI’s that the levels of bribery in the Brazil, and Colombia (both with 40 The data produced by the GCB is not These analyses controlled for the periodic surveys in the region. Better region are relatively high. First, percent). limited to SDG 16.5. Citizens in Latin potential influences of age, gender, control of corruption requires better citizens were asked whether they America and the Caribbean were income, education and whether the data, and progress towards SDGs had contact with six key public Interestingly, although Brazil presents asked whether they had “a great deal”, respondent had paid a bribe for public 16.5 and 16.6 will be inadequately services in their country during the one of the lowest bribery rates in the “a fair amount”, “not a lot” or “no trust services during the 12 months prior to documented and understood for previous 12 months (the police, the region, the number of respondents at all” in the government (including being interviewed. as long as sources of non-official courts, health care, schools, identity who have been offered money or a politicians, public servants or any kind data from civil society organisations documents, and utilities), to which 76 favour in exchange for their vote is of government agency); the courts; The regressions were performed are not given due consideration by percent responded affirmatively. Of remarkably high. Similarly, whereas and the police.37 Measuring the by country and survey weights national governments as part of SDG these, more than one in five people Venezuela presents the highest levels of trust that individuals have in were applied.38 The results of these monitoring processes. (21 percent) paid a bribe to obtain bribery rate in the entire region, state institutions is a useful proxy to analyses show that there is indeed an basic services. Venezuela, Mexico, vote-buying seems to be a much less evaluate how effective, accountable inverse relationship between vote- and Peru present the highest bribery widespread practice in that country and transparent these institutions are buying and trust in government that is rates in the region, with 50, 34, and when compared to its Latin American (target 16.6). Taking the region as a statistically significant for Brazil, Chile, 30 percent respectively. On the counterparts (26 percent). This brief whole, a minority of people express Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican other side of the spectrum, Costa comparison neatly illustrates the trust in the government (21 percent), Republic, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago Rica (seven percent), Barbados (nine limitations of measuring complex courts (27 percent) and police (33 and Venezuela.39 In other words, after percent) and Brazil (11 percent) are phenomena with unidimensional percent); in only two countries – controlling for bribery, socioeconomic the Latin American and Caribbean indicators. Barbados and Guyana – did a majority and demographic variables, the countries with the lowest overall of respondents state that they trusted nationals of these countries who bribery rates. these institutions. experience vote-buying are more
SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 32 SDG16DI 2020 Global Report Page 33 Photo by Raquel García on Unsplash Chapter To provide data, significant funding will be required to conduct opinion surveys and collect administrative data with a global coverage The UN Member States have set extent to which the proportional ten specific targets for Sustainable representation of various Development Goal 16, the promotion demographic groups in (a) the of just, peaceful and inclusive legislature, (b) public service, and societies. Of these targets, target (c) the judiciary corresponds to COUNTRIES 16.7 aims at ensuring “responsive, national distributions of the same Hungary; 162 countries inclusive, participatory and groups. This is captured in indicators globally representative decision-making at 16.7.1a-c. The second indicator set all levels.” Among the 17 SDGs and measures the proportion of people the 169 targets defined to achieve who (1) believe that they have a say the Goals, target 16.7 may be viewed in what the government does and as a key target, because it focuses (2) feel that the political system on political decision-making, a allows them to have an influence on crucial prerequisite for all of the politics. This is captured in indicator RELEVANT SDG16 desirable policy outcomes defined 16.7.2. Both indicator sets are to be TARGET(S) in SDG 16 and in the other SDGs. disaggregated by sex, age, disability This chapter discusses the official status, population groups and levels Towards a valid and viable 16.7: Ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and indicators for monitoring target 16.7 of government. representative decision- and argues that the Global State of Democracy Indices – a set of According to the metadata sheet measurement of SDG making at all levels democracy measures developed prepared by the UN Statistics by the International Institute for Division, the choice of indicators Democracy and Electoral Assistance 16.7.1 a-c is based on the assumption target 16.7: responsive, (International IDEA)41 – can function that when parliament, public services as valid proxy indicators. and the judiciary reflect “the social diversity of a nation, this may lead inclusive, participatory and The UN Statistical Commission to greater legitimacy [of these DATA METHOD has selected two indicators, or institutions] in the eyes of citizens,” as Expert assessments; coded more precisely: sets of indicators their “members resemble the people representative decision- observational data to measure progress on target they represent in respect to gender, 16.7.42 The first set measures the age, ethnicity and disability.”43 making
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