Preparing UK Electricity Networks for Electric Vehicles Report
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Preparing UK
Electricity Networks
for Electric Vehicles
Report
2018
1
Contents
Executive summary 4
1 Introduction 8
2 Pace of change 12
2.1 UK Government policy 14
2.2 Automotive market trends 16
2.3 International EV landscape 20
2.4 Changing vehicle ownership models 21
2.5 EV forecasts 22
3 EV impacts on Electricity Networks 24
3.1 The parts of our network 26
3.2 Impact on the home 28
3.3 Impact on the street 30
3.4 Impact on the town 33
3.5 Impact on the region/city 34
3.6 The scale of infrastructure requirement 37
4 Enabling the transition 38
4.1 A shared ownership of demand forecasting 40
4.2 Implementation of smart solutions 41
4.3 Investment in our networks ahead of need 45
5 Recommendations 50
References 52
2 3
Executive summary
The UK Government published its
"If these challenges are
Energy Systems Catapult considers that no single
technology is the answer to decarbonisation, and
“Clean Growth Strategy: Leading
not addressed, the uptake
that a “whole energy systems approach” is the
the way to a low carbon future” on most effective way to reduce emissions. The use of
12 October 2017. It outlines how the EVs will be a key part of this approach and could
of EVs will impact the UK’s
UK plans to lead the world in cutting potentially have significant implications for the
carbon emissions to combat climate support infrastructure including the transmission
and distribution networks.
change while driving economic growth.
Integral to the strategy is accelerating the shift to
The purpose of this report is to highlight the
effects of EV uptake on the electricity network electricity networks as they
were not designed to cope
low carbon transport, including ultra low emission
and recommend how to avoid network capacity
vehicles (ULEVs), the vast majority being plug-in
constraints impeding the roll-out of EVs. It is likely
hybrid electric vehicles or pure electric vehicles.
that the uptake of EVs1 will cause local shortfalls
with these additional,
The UK Government is supporting the transition in electricity network capacity without investment2
to EVs through funding and policy. This includes within the RIIO2 Transmission and Distribution
and significant, demands."
a proposed ban on the sale of petrol and price controls. However, the current regulatory
diesel cars from 2040 and a range of financial environment combined with investor pressure
incentives to kickstart the transition. In parallel, can curb transmission and distribution network
the automotive industry is bringing out a number operators’ ability and desire to invest.
of electrified vehicles which will cater to a wide
range of consumer preferences and needs, thus
further driving demand. Several major automotive
manufacturers have announced that all of their
vehicles will be electric or hybrid by 2020.
Home Street Town
Households with off-street A proportion of our low voltage Our high voltage networks
parking (about two-thirds of networks will be overloaded will need upgrading to avoid
UK housing stock) will have without action, potentially reliability issues as fault resilience
the capability to charge at leading to power outages. will potentially be severely
home and be suitable for The main solutions offered are impacted without action.
most consumers' needs – smart charging and upgrading
the headroom provided by the cables and transformers Region
the existing household fuse at significant expense and Our transmission networks may
rating means that individual disruption. need significant investment
householders can charge to ensure that they are fit for
their EVs without the need for purpose.
further reinforcement. This may
become an issue if fast charge
rates, such as those offered by
Tesla Models S and X, become
the norm.
As households with off-street parking are expected to make up most
short to medium term adopters of EVs, this report focusses on this
scenario. Home-based charging, from analysis of travel patterns, property
characteristics and electricity system dynamics2, is very conducive to
providing the core of charging needs and evidence to date supports this.
4 5
"A key issue in rolling out
new capacity is the lead
times taken to construct
and commission new
infrastructure."
The key recommendations are to:
In the rapidly changing environment Adapt demand forecasting arrangements: Develop a regulatory framework
Forecasting future demands carry considerably to enable investment:
that EVs will bring, it will be necessary
more uncertainty than in previous decades, Network operators can be reluctant to invest in
to improve forecasting through impacting the planning and financing of new infrastructure where they face forecasting
better demand data and network electricity networks. It will be necessary to risks, exacerbated by the fixed periods of the
asset information, deploy smart improve forecasting arrangements, including regulatory price reviews. Additionally, they may
system solutions to defer or avoid the co-ordination between parties, in particular also face the risk of asset stranding. The key risk
Distribution Network Operators (DNO) and to the system and the smooth uptake of EVs is
the need for investment, upgrade Transmission Network Operators (TNO), and the that capacity gaps form which cannot be filled
policy and regulations to achieve automotive sector. with new infrastructure in a timely manner, as the
timely investment through appropriate lead times can be extensive. It is recommended
Progress with roll-out of smart systems:
incentivisation and risk sharing, and It is recognised that smart systems, including
that a regulatory framework is developed based
on consistent and comprehensive distribution
adopt a more whole systems approach. smart meters, smart charging and energy network asset data and better demand
storage, could reduce the overall level of forecasting. This will improve network capacity
required investment and allow time for capital forecasts. If necessary, policy and regulations
intensive/physical solutions to be deployed. could be updated to provide appropriate risk
However, there remain barriers to adoption sharing across all stakeholders and make it easier
centred around standards and interoperability to commit to and implement investment decisions
of systems. It is recommended that standards to ahead of potential capacity gaps emerging.
promote co-ordination of systems, recognising Coupled with this the sector needs to take a
the specific, and often local, requirements of whole energy system approach, with its portfolio
electricity network operators, are developed and of options for clean energy, to best serve the
implemented. needs of consumers.
6 7
1. Introduction
Electric Vehicle
(EV) Terminology
In this report, we define an EV as any
light duty vehicle that can plug into the
electricity network.
This includes pure electric vehicles (battery), plug-in hybrids
(combined battery and petrol/diesel engine) and range-
extended electric vehicles (battery with petrol/diesel top-up).
Ultra-low emission vehicles (ULEVs) are also referred to. These
may be EVs or alternatives that are virtually zero tail-pipe
emission, for example, hydrogen fuelled.
Electricity Network
Terminology
"To deliver on the government’s There are two types of electricity
Clean Growth Strategy the UK networks: transmission and distribution.
must make decisions about its
Transmission networks carry electricity long distances around
the country at high voltages. Distribution networks run at lower
voltages and take electricity from the transmission system into
energy infrastructure by the
homes and businesses.
Transmission Network Operators (TNO) are responsible
mid-2020s…"
for running transmission networks, and Distribution Network
Operators (DNO) are responsible for running distribution networks.
8 9
The purpose of this
report is to highlight
In December
2017 there were In line with this,
132,000 EVs National Grid
the effects of EV uptake
(both pure electric scenarios show that
and plug-in hybrid) nine million
in the UK3 equating vehicles could be
on electricity networks,
to around 2% of electric5 by 2030.
new car sales.
and recommend how to
This growth, coupled
with the long-term
UK Government targets6
avoid network capacity
for all new cars and vans
to be zero emission
by 2040, will lead to
constraints impeding
increased pressure on
our electricity networks.
the roll-out of EVs.
The UK’s
Committee on Bloomberg New
Climate Change advise Energy Finance forecast
that, by 2030, 60%2 that by 2040, 54% of
of vehicle sales should new car sales and 33%
be electric to meet of the global car fleet
the fifth Carbon will be electric8.
Budget4.
This report discusses the potential The move away from Internal Combustion Engines This report highlights the current situation
(ICE) to EVs is real, and the UK is regarding network demand forecasting, scrutinises
rate of change of EV uptake
ideally placed to capitalise on this market growth. the current infrastructure investment and
by considering the national In parallel, it is incumbent on industry sectors to regulatory environment for our network operators,
carbon/air quality landscape and work together to ensure that the electricity system and provides recommendations for the ways in
government drivers, as well as can accommodate the additional demand. which the whole system will need to co-ordinate,
looking at market signals from the Our electricity network operators – three TNOs
flex and adapt to allow investment in the networks Research shows
to cope with the rapid changes ahead. It focuses
automotive industry. The primary and six DNOs – hold the responsibility to ensure on the impacts of EVs, particularly for homes with that the number
focus is on households with off- that the networks are not a barrier to the uptake
street parking (about two-thirds of of low carbon technologies such as EVs. While a
off-street parking.
of EVs in the UK
UK housing stock) who are likely
range of projects and initiatives are underway to
research ways to reduce network reinforcement
To deliver on the government’s Clean Growth
Strategy the UK must make decisions about its is rising rapidly.
to make up the majority of short spend, such as Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) energy infrastructure by the mid-2020s, including
to mid-term adopters of EVs. The (2018) Consumers, Vehicles and Energy Integration for domestic electricity, heating and transport.
report draws on existing published project9, My Electric Avenuev10, Smart EV11 and Emissions from heating appliances and other forms
Electric Nation12, and the Future Power System of transport are also a significant contributor to UK
material only, pulling together Architecture (FPSA13) programme, this report carbon emissions. To address this, Energy Systems
disparate sources to review the focuses on the benefits, limitations and enablers Catapult (ESC) believes that a whole energy
impact EVs will have on the UK needed for smart solutions and conventional systems approach14, with its portfolio of options
Electricity Networks. network reinforcement. for clean energy, will best serve the needs of
consumers. The approach will further endorse the
need for flexible and adaptable electricity networks
as proposed in this report.
10 11
2. Pace of change
Key take-aways
• The UK Government plans • Automotive manufacturers • The UK is not alone, many
to end the sale of all new are investing billions into countries are introducing
petrol and diesel cars and new EV models and some policies and incentives to
vans by 2040. This goal have announced that all promote ULEV adoption.
will not be met if issues of their vehicles will be Automotive manufacturers
such as network capacity at least partly electric by develop products for a
requirements are not 2020. These vehicles are global market.
addressed. being developed with lower
upfront costs to appeal • There are a number of
• National Grid’s “two to consumers and drive plausible scenarios for
degrees” Future Energy demand. It’s reasonable to the rate of EV uptake, but
Scenario is based upon assume that consumers will there are also uncertainties.
7.3 million EVs, or around become disenchanted if This uncertainty makes it
30% of vehicles, by 2030. useability is compromised imperative that preparations
by poor home charging are made for what might
availability or long delays happen. There is the very
before home chargers can real prospect of high uptake
be connected, or be put of EVs, and it might be
off by bad experiences of faster than many expect.
others. This may undermine
ambitions to decarbonise,
improve air quality or realise
industrial strategy goals.
"The government will end
the sale of all new petrol
and diesel cars and vans
NOT FOR SALE
by 2040."
12 13
2.1 UK Government policy
The transport policy to promote EVs
"From September 2020 an
It should be noted that the funding is not directed
at ensuring the energy system can cope with
was initially driven by climate change
Ultra-Low Emissions Zone will
the uptake of EVs, this responsibility lies with the
objectives, influenced by the Kyoto/ network and system operators.
Paris agreements and international
be created requiring all cars,
The 2017 Queen’s Speech introduced the
carbon reduction targets. The policy Automated and Electric Vehicles Bill 2017-
to meet these objectives was set in 201917, which is currently at Committee stage in
the 2008 Climate Change Act15. More
motorcycles, vans, minibuses,
Parliament. This would allow the government to
recently, the UK government has mandate charge point provision in public places,
enact minimum standards to enable mass smart
published the Clean Growth Strategy16
coaches and heavy goods
charging and provide common information
which supports the adoption of EVs on charge point availability. This is intended to
mainly through: remove some of the key consumer barriers to
vehicles to meet strict
adopting EVs.
• Spending £1bn on supporting uptake,
including overcoming the upfront cost of EVs. Also, the Department for Business, Energy and
emission standards or pay a
Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Committee has recently
• A commitment to develop one of the best EV
launched an inquiry into electric vehicles18,
charging networks in the world.
recognising that “the arrival of electric vehicles on
daily charge."
To help smooth the transition, government the mass market creates substantial challenges for
incentives are directed towards provision of the electricity grid”.
charge points (e.g. Office for Low Emission
Vehicles (OLEV) HomeCharge for domestic
charge points) and the Plug-in Car Grant to
help counter the higher purchase cost of EVs
compared with their ICE equivalent.
Alongside this, some local authorities Outside London, cities such as Nottingham,
Oxford, Milton Keynes and Bristol have been
have already taken a lead towards
awarded Go Ultra Low city status21, with funding
the adoption of ULEVs. Greater support to introduce initiatives to encourage the
London operates a Low Emission adoption of ULEVs. Devolution and the election of
Zone and has recently introduced the local regional Mayors is likely to further accelerate
Toxicity Charge, requiring drivers of this trend.
affected vehicles to pay an additional
daily surcharge to drive around most
of Greater London. From September
2020 an Ultra-Low Emissions
Zone19 will be created requiring all
cars, motorcycles, vans, minibuses,
coaches and heavy goods vehicles
to meet strict emission standards or
pay a daily charge. In advance of
these requirements, all private hire
taxi vehicles licenced for the first time
from 1 January 2018 must be zero
emission capable20.
14 15
2.2 Automotive market trends
The automotive industry has
"EVs are increasingly being
responded to the long-term steer by
various Governments internationally, developed with lower upfront
and invested heavily in EVs.
2.2.1 Automotive market trends
costs to appeal to consumers."
Many automotive manufacturers have
acknowledged that the future is increasingly
electrified, including Volkswagen Group,
BMW, Jaguar Land Rover and Volvo22, 23, 24, 25.
A recent string of announcements
highlighting manufacturer expectations
of a strong EV market include:
Combined, the automotive industry is
May July investing tens of £billions in EV-related
research and development (R&D) to
2017 2017 bring new models to the market and
support mass manufacturing. In the
Volkswagen Group Volvo announced
announced that that from 2019 they
UK, we are seeing rapid changes in EV
it was increasing will stop producing availability: in 2011 choice was limited
its investment in vehicles powered by to less than ten models, in 2015 there
alternative drive internal combustion were 32 types of EVs available and
technologies to nine engines alone and
by September 2017, there were 59
billion euros over the that the move to the
next five years and will electrification of their models of plug-in cars or vans on the
be rolling out more vehicles will be at market3 from a wide range of major
than ten new electrified the core of its future automotive manufacturers.
models by the end of business.
2018. The company
announced “The future
is electric. We intend
to be the No. 1 in 2.2.2 Cost and useability
e-mobility by 2025”.
A key consumer influencing factor is cost. EVs are UBS research shows that the cost of EV ownership
currently more expensive to purchase than their is likely to reach parity with ICE equivalent as
ICE equivalents (recent studies26 have shown that soon as 2018. ING further forecasts that the
upfront costs are a greater driver of demand than cost of manufacturing EVs will reach parity with
Aug Sept lifetime costs). However, economic predictions ICE vehicles around 2027, coupled with lower
based on the falling cost of batteries and other servicing and fuelling/energy costs, EVs will
reductions in manufacturing costs from the Dutch therefore be significantly cheaper to run. EVs are
2017 2017
investment bank, ING27, as well as from UBS28, increasingly being developed with lower upfront
suggest a rapid transition from ICE vehicles. ING costs to appeal to consumers. Additionally, it’s
BMW Group, who Jaguar Land Rover
states that pure electric cars could “become the reasonable to assume that consumers will become
market nine different announced that all
rational choice for motorists in Europe” between disenchanted if useability is compromised by poor
electrified models, vehicles will be either
2017 and 2024 and that they could account for all home charging availability or long delays in the
announced that hybrid or all-electric
vehicle registrations by 2035. connection of their home charger or be put off by
sales of its EV ranges from 2020.
bad experiences of others. This may undermine
increased by 74.8% to
ambitions to decarbonise, improve air quality or
50,711 worldwide over
realise industrial strategy goals.
the first seven months
of 2017.
16 17
Electric Vehicle Battery Capacity David J. Bricknell
2022
BMW iNext
Hyundi Genesis
VW Buzz
2021
Ford SUV
BMWX3
Hyundi A
VW ID Cross
Volvo
2020
Lucid Air
Audi eTron
Jaguar I-Pace
BMW i3 120
Leaf
Hyundi Ioniq 2
2019
VW I.D.
2.2.3 EV range and charging rate
Mini E
Merc EQ EV
The range (i.e. distance of travel before the
BMW 3
Hyundi Kona
battery needs re-charging) of pure EVs (i.e.
2018
Tesla 3
battery only) is seen by the automotive industry
as a key barrier to adoption. As the industry
Tesla 3 LR
addresses the issue, assisted by falling battery
Denza400
Hyundai
2017
e-golf
Tesla S 75
Ioniq
costs, EV range is increasing, as illustrated in
Bolt
VW
Figure 1. As affordable EVs enter the market with
larger range, this will allow consumers that drive
Tesla S100
Renault
2016
longer distances to make the transition, and the
BMW
3 94
Zoe
Leaf
impact of charging on the electricity network will
be higher.
EV260
Tesla S90
Tesla S70
ES 210
2015
EV200
EQEV
Z100
In high-end vehicles, lithium ion batteries can now
2.2.4 Hydrogen fuelled vehicles
match conventional petrol vehicle ranges of 300
E30
miles or more, but still cannot compete in terms of There is the prospect that hydrogen fuelled
Mercedes B
Ford Focus VW e-golf
Kia Soul
MAXUS
JACiEV
2014
EV80
charge times. To address this, many £billions are vehicles will form part of the future, but the
being invested in R&D programmes to develop technology is less mature, and so their future
solid state car batteries which have the potential is even more uncertain and likely to take shape
BMW | 3.60
Zinoro 1E
BYDE6
VW e-up
to both double the range of lithium ion batteries over a longer timescale than EVs. Work by the
2013
E150
and also dramatically shorten recharge times to a Committee for Climate Change expects that EVs
matter of minutes. For example, Sir James Dyson29 will dominate4, however, looking further out to
Roewe E50
Tesla S 85
Tesla S 60
Tesla S 40
has committed £2billion to produce an electric car 2050, hydrogen fuelling could feature particularly
Springo
Besturn
Renault
2012
Zoe
powered by solid state batteries by 2020. if it is aligned with hydrogen infrastructure and
carbon capture to support decarbonisation of
heat. This view is underpinned by the Automotive
2011
Council’s suite of roadmaps which show fuel cell
Leaf MidiEV
vehicles coming to the market later than EVs. Any
infrastructure solution would need to take account
Nomad
Nissan
2010
of the prospect of hydrogen refuelling and the
M30
potential for change to power.
T-Miev
2009
Roadster
2008
Tesla
30
20
10
40
90
60
80
50
100
70
Battery Capacity - kWhrs
Figure 1 – Chart depicting vehicle battery capacity trends over time (source: EV author David J. Bricknell)
18 192.3 International EV landscape 2.4 Changing vehicle
ownership models
The UK is not alone, many countries are introducing
policies and incentives to promote ULEV adoption. There is potential for vehicle ownership However, despite the uncertainty, there are some
sound assumptions that can be made:
Automotive manufacturers develop products for a to change in the decades ahead, with
global market. the prospect of new models becoming • Most EVs, whether autonomous or not, will
the norm. Technology is making this still need to be charged from our electricity
UK Government policy should be seen alongside networks. This includes vehicles powered by
change possible in the form of today’s
those of other countries. The list below includes solid state batteries which will increase the
app-based taxi services and car clubs, potential demand at each charge point as a
headline policies from worldwide and European
to tomorrow’s autonomous “self- result of rapid charging requirements.
governments:
driving” vehicles. • Consumers will still require transport services,
The UK Government has stated that it will facilitate whether they own the vehicle or not.
trials of autonomous vehicles and there is support
• The future trend is for a greater dependence
France for such in the Autonomous and Electric Vehicles
on our electricity networks for transport,
announced a ban Bill. Some estimates are that autonomous vehicles
European countries although factors such as ownership models
on the sale of petrol and could be on our roads as early as 203031.
including Norway and Norway has set a goal of and vehicle autonomy are likely to affect the
France have announced diesel cars by 2040, and 100% sales of zero emission Regarding the electricity network there is much extent to which network adaptation is needed
goals to accelerate the Paris is considering an end capable vehicles by 2025 uncertainty: and where it is needed.
adoption of EVs. to diesel cars by 2024 when
it hosts the Olympic • Ownership could shift away from the
games. household and towards fleet operators. Fleet
vehicles will potentially be connected to the
electricity network in out-of-town depots.
• Vehicle ownership models and usage profiles
are likely to significantly affect both where and
California, when EVs are charged.
which accounts for
Germany and 35% of US car sales, has
The Netherlands are adopted strict regulations to
"Some estimates are that
expected to make similar reduce car emissions which
policy announcements. are expected to be adopted
autonomous vehicles could be
by up to a dozen other
US states.
on our roads as early as 2030."
California’s regulatory approach is being mirrored
by China. India’s government has stated a desire
to be pure electric by 2030.
Even the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) believes that there will be 235
million electric cars worldwide by 2040, revising
its forecast upwards, by a factor of five, from 46
million in just one year30.
As automotive manufacturers develop products
for a global market, almost regardless of UK
Government policy, petrol and diesel vehicles
will be gradually phased out of the supply chain,
based on economics, consumer needs and
international policy.
20 212.5 EV forecasts UK EV Market
Figure 2 illustrates the key events forecast to significantly impact EV uptake up to 2050.
Car Ownership
2050
Today, the number of EVs in the UK is rising rapidly.
There are a number of plausible
Two Degree
By the end of 2017 there were over 100,000 EVs
scenarios for the rate of EV uptake,
Hgh EV
registered in the UK32, and EVs now represent 1.7%
but there are also uncertainties. This of the total new car market in the UK.
Degrees (most likely
scenario) only pure
National Grid Two
ICE
uncertainty makes it imperative that
EV's for sale
The Committee for Climate Change (CCC)33
preparations are made for what
2045
scenario in which the UK could achieve the legally
might happen. There is the very real binding fifth carbon budget by 2030, estimates
prospect of high uptake of EVs, and it
2045
that 60% of new car sales need to be ULEVs by
this date. The CCC expects these to be EVs rather
might be faster than many expect.
than alternatives such as hydrogen fuelled.
This is aligned with National Grid’s work on
Future Energy Scenarios34, particularly their
‘Two Degrees’ scenario, where:
Ban on sales of new
2040
petrol and diesel
vehicles
2040
ING - Plug in vehicles
could account for all
new vehicle sales
2035
2035
There are nine million Most cars are pure There will be no new
EVs, around 30% of electric with few sales of hybrids after
all cars. hybrids (only 6%). 2045 as hybrid EVs
contain combustion
engines (meaning that
they are also emitters).
Go Ultra Low suggest
half vehicles sales will
2030
scenario assumes sales
of ICE and hybrids will
National Grid High EV
By 2045 there are only
be electric
have ceased
2027
pure EVs for sale.
2025
2025
Further to this, analysis undertaken by Go Ultra
Ultra low Emmission
Zone introduced to
Low in 2016 suggested that more than half new
London
car registrations could be electric by 202735.
2020
ING - Plug in vehicles to become
All forecasts carry uncertainty and a key question
'rational choice for motorists'
Volvo to stop producing
is how the network operators should be enabled
to manage and mitigate the risks, and how
ICE vehicles
2017 – 2014
discussions between the relatively separate
2020
1.7% of new vehicle
vehicles registered.
must be zero emission
2019
116,000 plug in
vehicles in London
electricity networks and automotive sectors can
registrations.
New private hire
July 2017
be facilitated.
capable
2018
2015
Year
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Vehicles (millions)
22 233. EV impacts on
electricity networks
Key take-aways
• Our distribution and • The current approach to • The infrastructure spend
transmission networks forecasting of electricity to prepare our electricity
were not designed for network capacity and networks is likely to run to
EV demand from homes associated investment may tens of £billions but this is
with off-street parking and not be fit for purpose in still a modest proportion of
potentially we do not have the event of very rapid consumers’ bills.
sufficient network capacity EV uptake. The current
for mass-uptake. investment process has • The impact is highly
been designed to meet dependent on the charging
• It takes time to realise new economic growth, rather profiles adopted: off-peak
capacity, and gaps could than changes in modes charging has a much lower
emerge that would lead of transport driven by impact than on-peak.
to power outages or other consumers. To mitigate
constraints unless action The pace of change in adoption
this, more co-operation of EVs is rapid. We now look at
is taken. is required between the the impact this will have on the
TNOs, DNOs and the electricity network.
automotive industry. This
is in line with the approach
proposed by the FPSA
programme.
"The focus of this report
is home charging for
households with
off-street parking."
24 253.1 The parts of our network
"It should be noted that if EV
charging increases national
The focus of this report is home
charging for households with off-street
parking. In this context, our electricity
networks can be described in four parts:
peak demand, then this will
require a potentially significant
additional generating plant,
which could make other costs
1 The Home: the individual electricity
usage of a single household, including
2 The Street: the “local” electricity assets
that connect multiple homes (i.e. the low
look modest."
those with two EVs voltage distribution network)
3 The Town: the assets supplying power 4 The Region/City: the assets supplying
to conurbations (the high voltage bulk power to regions of the UK (the
distribution network) electricity transmission network)
It is necessary to consider each part to better
understand the impact that EVs will have on our
electricity networks. It should be noted that if EV
charging increases national peak demand, then
this will require a potentially significant additional
generating plant, which could make other costs
look modest.
At all levels, as network operators have no control
over EV uptake, planners face a huge challenge
to ensure that future network capacity remains
adequate. There is a real risk the uptake of EVs is
potentially much faster than the investment cycles
within which network operators operate.
26 273.2 Impact on the home Electricity use in our homes
Most households with off-street
parking will have the capability to
support EV charging. The impacts of
charging can be managed within the
confines of the home. Lightbulbs
(Traditional - 60W) (CFL -
Within the isolated context of a single house, in the 8W)
UK, a typical household is permitted to use around
20kW (80 – 100 amps) at any time, as defined
by the fuse rating entering the property and the
connection terms. This is enough power for most
Hairdryer
appliances to be used at the same time – a kettle,
1.5kW
for example, typically uses 13 amps. An EV charger
typically draws a maximum of 32 amps.
It is possible, and in some cases likely, that
households would breach the service fuse rating Electric Shower
where an EV charger is used along with multiple (8.5kW)
other high-load appliances (e.g. electric shower
and kettle, or even a second EV charger). In
these cases, the fuse would blow, the lights
would go out and the householder would need
to call the DNO to fit a new fuse. To prevent
further incidents, the householder would need to
ensure that the demand is managed within the TV
household by, for example, either remembering (CRT - 1kW)
to un-plug the car before showering or fitting an (LCD - 200W)
inexpensive device which automatically curtails
the EV charging rate when the load of the Clothes Dryer
household exceeds the fuse limit. Alternatively, (5kW)
systems to automatically manage household loads
from discrete devices will shortly be available.
WiFi Router EV chargers are very different to other high-load
6W appliances in the household. Whereas a kettle
may take three minutes to boil, or an electric 'Cutout' fuse
shower used for 5-10 minutes, to recharge an EV 80-100A
after a 40-mile trip would take around two hours. (good for 20-30kW)
Figure 3 – Household appliance However, most households with the ability to
electricity usage charge a car will be able to use a dedicated home
EV charger to recharge their vehicle.
Wider system benefits could be provided through Electric Hob & Oven
EV charging schemes. For example, due to the (10kW)
relatively large amount of electricity required for
vehicle charging, typically with significant flexibility,
consumers can save money through systems
that both manage household loads and enable Electric Kettle
charging at financially advantageous times or (3.5kW)
even through participation in the energy flexibility
markets (e.g. National Grid’s Short Term Operating
Reserve). Set against this, in affluent areas where
finance is less of a consideration, there may be
constraints issues due to fast charging of high-
end EVs such as Teslas.
28 293.3 Impact on the street Residential and EV charging demands
In areas with off-street parking, EVs
will ultimately double the load on the
local distribution network during peak
Total
periods of demand as penetration
02 :50 :38 :26 :14 :02 :50 :38 :26 :14 .02 :50 :38 :26 14 :02 :50 .38 :26 :14 .02 :50 :38 :26 :14 :02 :50 :38 :26 :14
12 12 13 14 15 16 16 17 18 19 20 20 21 22 23
reaches one EV per household,
which will lead to localised power
outages unless either the networks are
EV
pro-actively upgraded or extensive
demand management (e.g. smart
charging) is implemented.
Residential
When looking at street level, the effects from
individual households are multiplied. A typical
residential street will have a cable running
underneath it, with individual connections to each
property. Each cable can supply anywhere from
one to 150 properties. There are also devices
that convert high voltage to low voltage called
transformers. Each transformer may supply a few
streets, up to around 500 consumers.
The cables buried underneath our streets will
be heavily impacted by EVs. In residential areas,
peak local electricity demand is in the evenings
Time of Day
and is particularly high on cold, dark winter ’s
evenings. Research conducted using charging
data from hundreds of EV drivers10 have shown
Figure 4 – The (residential) demand (in kVA) by time on a typical winter weekday
that unmanaged EV charging demand also peaks
:
10 11
in the evening. This is illustrated in Figure 4.
The ultimate result is a doubling of peak demand
at distribution street level as EV penetration
9
rates reach 100%. It should be noted that this is
8
in today’s energy market, where most residential
consumers pay a flat rate for electricity regardless
8
of whether the system is at peak load or not.
Using different tariffs, i.e Time of Use (ToU) tariffs,
7
where consumers would be charged more for
6
using electricity at peak times may help offset a
proportion of the local peak, but it is unclear how
5
effective this would be. Additionally, ToU tariffs
4
aren’t the only option for managing charging
or providing a signal to manage charging.
4
Technology to enable remote management of
charging has been shown to reduce local peaks
3
and there is initial evidence to support that this is
2
acceptable to customers.
1
Each cable usually has some spare capacity,
but very rarely enough to cope with a two-fold
0
increase in demand. There is also the prospect
0:
of the voltage to consumers’ homes being lower
2.5
2.0
0.5
0.0
1.5
1.0
than statutory levels.
Average Demand (kVA)
30 31"It will become an increasing
challenge to maintain reliability
standards on our high voltage
networks due to EVs."
3.4 Impact on the town
It will become an increasing challenge to maintain Smart charging, again, has a role to play. At high
reliability standards on our high voltage networks voltage, demand levels are larger, but smoother
due to EVs. Mass smart charging and substantial and less subject to minute-by-minute variations.
investment in new capacity will be required when As a result, smart charging would be activated for
EV uptake becomes significant. longer durations, more frequently and involving
more EVs, however the aggregation effects will
Our towns and villages are supplied with reduce the requirement for any individual EV. This
electricity by an array of high voltage overhead level of curtailment, and its acceptability, has not
lines and underground cables, fed from a series yet been explored using real consumers.
of large transformers. A crucial design aspect of
our high voltage network is that each area is fed In such circumstances, it may be necessary
from two or more supplies – in the event of a for consumers to be financially incentivised to
fault, power can be transferred through a different participate, for example, through sharing in the
route until restoration. This means that latent savings they are helping to realise.
It will be necessary to: While DNOs are accustomed to reinforcing
spare capacity exists in our high voltage networks
networks (mostly at higher voltages) to facilitate There are a range of solutions that may be
• Proactively upgrade local networks where that is only used during faults or maintenance.
load growth or new connections, the prospect of appropriate to alleviate capacity constraints
spare capacity is limited; and reinforcing even a modest proportion would be on high voltage networks, not just traditional
The impacts of EVs are varied. For networks
• Enable the extensive roll-out of smart solutions on a different scale to their conventional levels of that supply mostly residential areas, then the reinforcement through new networks or asset
that can alleviate network stress, such as smart capital investment activity. same doubling of demand that will be seen on replacement. Energy storage and industrial/
charging and home storage, also allowing low voltage networks will be apparent on high commercial demand side response have been
Given the time it can take to deliver new capacity tested by the DNOs and may prove more
DNOs to take control when necessary (i.e. voltage networks. For networks supplying business
for EVs, it is suggested that the electrification of cost-effective in some network areas.
on those cold, dark winter evenings where districts or town centres, then the impacts of EVs
other high carbon energy sources, such as gas
demand is uncommonly high). would be a result of public or business charging
for heating, is considered alongside EV uptake
points and the situation will be more complex.
It should be recognised that apart from the costs, impact. The benefit of smart solutions is they can
These connections usually require an application
upgrading local networks is disruptive, typically help prevent outages due to overloads. In some
to the DNO, who then has the opportunity to
involving road closures and civils works (e.g. digging cases this may resolve the issue, while in others it
upgrade the network in advance. However,
cable trenches). Also, it takes time to plan and will buy time while more permanent solutions are
a key issue will be the time taken to provide
deliver new networks. This is before consideration is planned and deployed.
connections and there is a possibility that public
given to the cost and potentially long lead times to EV charging would be held back waiting for
install any associated new generation capacity. A key additional capacity.
issue in ensuring the local network can cope with
EV charging, is the scale of the problem; there are There is the prospect of utilising the capacity
around one million cables supplying households in built into networks for fault resilience. This could
our streets in the UK. release substantial capacity for EV charging
quickly, but at the detriment of reliability,
increasing the frequency and duration of power
outages that consumers experience, requiring
transformers to rely on cooling fans and pumps
that normally operate very rarely and driving up
network losses.
32 333.5 Impact on the region/city
"A crucial design aspect of
The load carried by transmission assets is highly
aggregated and therefore consists of a mix of
Our transmission networks will
our transmission network is
residential, business and industrial demands.
need investment due to increased Whereas distribution level assets that supply
towns and villages may see a doubling of peak
peak demand across the system.
that each area is fed from
demand due to EVs, the diversified consumer
A key issue is the lead time for base across transmission assets will act to limit the
commissioning new capacity, and the overall percentage change.
two or more supplies – in the
need for better forecasting and cross There is sensitivity towards the dominant charging
sector collaboration. mode. Should domestic charging continue to
event of a fault, power can be
dominate, then National Grid anticipate a large
Transmitting power across the country from
(potentially double) addition to peak demands as a
region to region is achieved through our
worst-case scenario on transmission assets serving
transferred through a different
electricity transmission network. This infrastructure
predominantly residential areas. However, a higher
consists of large bulk supply power transformers
ratio of public and business charging, coupled
and large overhead power lines spanning the
route until restoration."
with mass smart charging, will result in a smaller
country. The assets are large, expensive and take
contribution to peak transmission demand.
time to deliver.
In the optimistic case that smart charging is prolific
As discussed in 3.4, a crucial design aspect of our
and aggressively exercised (requiring considerable
transmission network is that each area is fed from
consumer buy-in), National Grid modelling shows
two or more supplies – in the event of a fault, power
that the contribution to peak demand could
can be transferred through a different route until
be kept to 8%5. In addition to peak capacity,
restoration. This means that latent spare capacity
load factors of equipment and their associated
exists in our transmission networks that is only used
ratings (e.g. 12hr, 6hr and 20 minutes ratings for
during faults or maintenance. This is potentially
summer and winter) will need to be considered
available for use at times of peak load resulting from
to ensure that the networks can provide the
the charging of EVs, and could mitigate congestion
necessary capacity throughout the year, e.g. when
issues, at least until more permanent solutions
equipment ratings are lower in the summer, during
are put in place. Similar to high voltage networks,
maintenance outages or where high utilisation
this would be at the detriment of reliability and
levels are experienced for several hours.
potentially system stability.
34 35Nonetheless, in all cases, investment is needed 3.6 The scale of
in our transmission infrastructure to facilitate the
infrastructure requirement
transition to EVs and there is much uncertainty
in the costs, benefits and limitations of smart At this stage it is difficult to develop
solutions. The level of transmission investment will
be highly dependent on the charging behaviour
estimates of the expenditure required
over the national peak. Key issues are the lead in our network infrastructure because
time for commissioning any new capacity and the of the significant uncertainty. However,
adoption rates of smart charging. various estimates show that it is likely
To ensure that network investment is undertaken to be a few tens of £billion1,2.
in a timely and cost-effective manner that
This is potentially a significant spend, and
delivers optimal benefit to consumers, greater
although it is spread across the national consumer
co-operation is required between stakeholders
base and long asset lives, it still represents a
including TNOs, DNOs and the automotive
modest proportion of consumer expenditure
industry (and their customers). Additionally, the
compared to existing fuelling costs and the
investment process, visibility of the rate of EV
investment in the vehicles themselves.
uptake and its impact on the entire network, and
future EV growth forecasts need to be considered.
Energy Systems Catapult also believes that a As the assets take time to construct, it is necessary
whole energy systems view would be beneficial to forecast future load growth many years ahead
to all stakeholders – for example looking at the and it is risky to assume that other solutions, such
impact on the generation portfolio (peak charging as smart charging, would achieve the required
is likely to call on gas fired generation, limiting levels of performance, in terms of de-loading
carbon benefits), cost optimisation across the assets, within the constraints of consumer
whole transmission and distribution network, acceptability. Flexibility is needed.
evaluating true carbon costs and the overall
financial costs to the consumer. Other solutions may prove more cost-effective
than traditional reinforcement in the future. For
ETI analysis1,2 across a range of scenarios indicates example, energy storage could alleviate capacity
more modest costs for the transmission network constraints on transmission and distribution
to support EVs when compared to the distribution assets, but is expensive when used to mitigate
network and other electricity supply costs. network constraints. Demand side response
Equally, savings offered by smart solutions for the (contracting with companies to reduce demand
transmission network are found to be noticeably on request) may be used more extensively to
smaller than for distribution networks and for de-load transmission assets in the future, however,
system balancing. there are challenges as the transmission asset
owner requires a long-term commitment from
demand side response service providers.
A typical major scheme to bring new capacity
online takes five years of planning and delivery,
sometimes longer, and is often dependent
upon local sensitivities (e.g. visual amenity or
heritage concerns). This places a large emphasis
on forecasting and forward planning. It is often
necessary to take a long-term view, sometimes
decades ahead, to ensure that new capacity is
adequate for future demands. It is also essential
that the TNO works with the DNO to develop an
integrated solution, and that the DNO provides
early visibility of EV driven demand to the TNO.
36 374. Enabling the transition
Key take-aways
• A rapidly changing • Policy and regulatory • There is an asymmetry to
environment means that changes are potentially the risk. Delivering capacity
there are increased risks needed to make it easier a short time ahead of need
associated with demand to agree and implement carries only the cost of
forecasting. It will be investment decisions ahead the rate of return for that
necessary to adapt the of need, in order to allow period, while late delivery
current arrangements so greater flexibility in long- could disrupt the networks
that the risks are better term investment in major and deployment of EVs.
understood, through infrastructure for EV-related
improved distribution demand. • So far, we have concluded
network data and that for the UK to
information, and granularity • Smart charging has the facilitate the transition to
of EV uptake forecasts. potential to reduce costs EVs, electricity network
but there are a number investment is required at all
of enablers that must levels of the system, from
be realised soon such as low voltage through to
standards to promote transmission. This section
technical interoperability draws out the actions
and coordinated needed in the next few
commercial offers. years to facilitate this.
"The pace of change in EV
uptake is rapid. Given the
lead times to commission
new capacity, traditional
forecasting methods may
no longer be appropriate."
38 394.1 A shared ownership of 4.2 Implementation of
demand forecasting smart solutions
The pace of change in EV uptake There is a range of smart solutions
is rapid. Given the lead times to that could benefit consumers through
commission new capacity, traditional reduced bills and ultimately improved
forecasting methods may no longer reliability of the electricity system.
be appropriate. Consideration should However, there remains critical
be given to a risk-based approach to uncertainties on how and whether
network infrastructure investment. these solutions will proliferate;
At present, network operators are responsible
and considering the government
for their own demand forecasting and they mandated scale and rate of change of
We are entering a period of immense change 4.2.1 Smart meters
are obliged to consult with stakeholders over in demand patterns and given the lead times to our transition to EVs, smart solutions
their plans. The TNOs are largely reliant on commission new capacity, traditional forecasting will not prevent the long-term need to Regarding benefits to our electricity networks,
the forecasts from DNOs to understand future all new smart meters have three important
demand, and cannot enhance their networks
methods are no longer appropriate. The FPSA invest in our network infrastructure.
programme has identified this as an innovation capabilities:
until they know the DNO's plans for increased area of focus. Consideration should be given to The front running new technology • Consumers can view their electricity usage in
transmission network exit capacity. A key issue is
that due to the regulatory mechanisms, DNOs
a risk-based approach to network infrastructure and commercial offerings that have real-time, which can raise awareness and in
investment whereby the risk of inaccuracy is better
make significant efforts to produce detailed understood and shared. This should be supported
the prospect of significantly altering limited cases also reduce demand. Data from
forecasts to justify investment business plans up by more effective data collection and more power flows are smart meters, smart smart meters can help better understand
network capacity issues, potentially in near
to eight to ten years ahead of when investments comprehensive asset information at the network charging and energy storage, and real-time, and help mitigate congestion issues
might be made. Since the TNO regulatory
period is two years earlier than DNOs, but the
level. At the core of this is improved information associated market arrangements resulting from EV uptake.
on the existing state of networks, including network
forecasting/investment mechanisms are very and business models. Each is briefly
capacities and the potential for reinforcement. • Enable ToU tariffs that could incentivise
similar, they are exposed to a misalignment of Improved demand forecasting, in co-operation discussed here with a view of the consumers to use less electricity during peak
their own forecasts with those of the DNOs. with the automotive industry and other relevant enabling actions required to better times. In most cases it is expected that this
stakeholders, and a better understanding of what assist electricity networks. process would be automated.
might be achieved by ToU charging and/or smart
charging are also required, including potentially • Potential control of domestic appliances
new market arrangements and business models. such as freezers, electrical heating and EV
chargers, to defer their operation away from
"We are entering a period of
peak times.
A key driver for ToU tariffs is to lower the total
cost of electricity supply and this benefit is mainly
immense change in demand
derived by allowing an overall lower cost generation
mix through less reliance on more expensive
patterns and given the
peak generation plant. The price signals from the
generation market however, do not necessarily align
with the stress on the electricity network.
lead times to commission
ToU tariffs should be geared to better serve
consumers by passing on the benefits from both
new capacity, traditional
the generation market and releasing network
capacity. As previously mentioned, from a whole
energy system perspective, smart meters enable
forecasting methods are no
the opportunity for price signals to be acted upon
to manage loads and reduce costs.
longer appropriate."
40 41"Studies have shown that
4.2.2 Smart charging
In the context of this report, smart
charging refers to deferring the
charging of EVs away from peak times smart charging can defer
and towards periods where there is
spare network capacity and a less investment in network
reinforcement, and is
expensive generating plant available.
This may be to manage capacity on
acceptable to consumers,
the local cable supplying the street or
the national transmission network.
if it reduces the associated
Technically, smart charging can be facilitated by There is also the potential of vehicles back-feeding
use of a dedicated smart charger, use of in-vehicle into the electricity system, termed vehicle-to-grid
systems or using smart meter infrastructure. (V2G). This involves the charger containing an
upheaval10."
inverter to convert and synchronise the energy
Studies have shown that smart charging can
stored in the vehicle battery, so it can act as a
defer investment in network reinforcement,
local generator. Compared with average daily
and is acceptable to consumers, if it reduces
household electricity usage of around 10kWh per
the associated upheaval10. It remains a large
day, EV battery packs are often triple this capacity.
unanswered question as to whether consumers,
en-masse, will accept smart charging with the On this basis V2G is an attractive prospect for
levels of incentives that make it a cost-effective the networks, especially at time of peak. The
solution compared with conventional reinforcement technology is currently in its infancy and only
of electricity networks. Smart charging is more supported by two automotive manufacturers
likely to be acceptable if the savings are significant, at present. There remain significant barriers, There are a number of enablers which • Incentivisation for customers to adopt smart
charging; and/or
the consumer has the ability to over-ride if the not least in terms of technology, commercial must be put into place to allow smart
vehicle is needed quickly and priority is given to
ensuring that all vehicles have a minimum level of
models and consumer acceptance, however charging to proliferate: • Technology standards to promote
it is encouraging that Innovate UK and OLEV interoperability between smart chargers or
charge for emergency use. have recently announced funding for a range of vehicle on-board systems;
projects to further explore feasibility and enable
Smart charging can also be used to limit the peak
demonstrations. V2G could develop into a cost- • Those standards to be applied widely, either
demand for electricity nationally, and hence the
effective tool to defer network investment, however, by legislation to enforce the standard or an
size of the national generation fleet. Given the
at this stage it is too early to assess its feasibility. alternative measure (e.g. grants based on
high cost of building, operating and maintaining
compliance);
power plants, this could provide a significant
saving to electricity consumers. • Co-ordination of commercial offerings and
back office systems between DNOs, TNO and
the System Operator.
This should be progressed as soon as possible
while the EV penetrations are low to prevent
stranded investment such as having to incur
the cost of replacing EV chargers with smart
equivalents, ultimately at the customer's expense.
42 43"Energy storage systems can 4.3 Investment in our networks
offer significant benefits to
4.3.1 The regulatory context
The regulatory environment has
consumers and the wider
served the industry and consumers
well for many decades during periods
of slow demand growth, ensuring
energy system. The costs capacity is only built as and when it is
needed, keeping performance up and
of the systems continue to consumer bills down. However, it can
mean that the power system struggles
fall, driven by demand, not
to keep pace with large-scale changes
outside of these long timescales –
least due to the increased
recently exemplified with challenges
in the connection of large scale solar
generation to the distribution network.
production rate of EVs."
4.2.3 Energy storage While there have been many changes to
Consumer bills down
regulation in the last 27 years, the core set-piece
Energy storage systems can offer significant is a time limited Price Control period. In 2013
benefits to consumers and the wider energy Ofgem moved from five-year price control periods
system. The costs of the systems continue to fall, in favour of eight years under the RIIO (Regulation
driven by demand, not least due to the increased = Innovation + Incentives + Outputs) model.
production rate of EVs.
Performance up
Critical for network operators are the Price
The systems can directly benefit consumers in Control Reviews, where the Regulator sets the
the future, coupled with ToU tariffs and other policy, any incentives/penalty mechanisms, and
means of providing signals to aid management the allowable revenues of a licensee for the
of charging, by allowing them to consume less coming period. Performance against agreed
electricity during peak price periods. However, plans and benchmarking of costs are major
there are other revenue streams including wider components, with granular analysis taken to agree
participation in the energy flexibility markets such all manner of expenditure the network operator is
as supporting the provision of ancillary services likely to incur during the period.
to the system operator. In smart grid technology,
an ancillary service is anything that supports the Once investment levels are agreed, the Regulator
transmission of electricity from its generation sets an allowable cost of capital, giving the network
site to the consumer. Services may include load operator the ability to finance the investment over
regulation, spinning reserve, non-spinning a longer period to the Price Control, more in line
reserve, replacement reserve and voltage/ with the life of the assets (typically 40-45years).
frequency support. The network operator therefore, does not get
the investment that might be needed in a given
The demand flexibility offered by storage systems price control period, only the ability to fund the
could form a valuable tool to defer or avoid associated equity/debt. The network operator still
network reinforcement in the future. At this stage, needs to raise the capital either via its investors or
there are limited studies36 to suggest the volumes via banks to fund the build.
of storage systems that may be installed in the
coming decade and therefore difficult for the
network operators to plan for its potential.
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