Slow-onset Processes and Resulting Loss and Damage - An introduction - ADDRESSING LOSS AND DAMAGE FROM SLOW-ONSET PROCESSES - An ...
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Publication Series ADDRESSING LOSS AND DAMAGE FROM SLOW-ONSET PROCESSES Slow-onset Processes and Resulting Loss and Damage – An introduction
Table of contents
4 22
Summary of Loss and damage
key facts and due to slow-onset
definitions processes
6 22
What is loss and damage?
Introduction
23
9 What losses and damages IMPRINT
Slow-onset can result from slow-onset
processes? Authors
processes and their Laura Schäfer, Pia Jorks, Emmanuel Seck,
key characteristics 26 Oumou Koulibaly, Aliou Diouf
What losses and damages
Contributors
9 can result from sea level rise? Idy Niang, Bounama Dieye, Omar Sow, Vera
What is a slow-onset process? Künzel, Rixa Schwarz, Erin Roberts, Roxana
31 Baldrich, Nathalie Koffi Nguessan
10
What are key characteristics Loss and damage Editing
Adam Goulston – Scize Group LLC
of slow-onset processes? in Senegal due to
sea level rise Layout and graphics
14 Karin Roth – Wissen in Worten
What are other relevant
terms for the terminology on 35 January 2021
slow-onset processes? Outlook
The authors thank Denis Mombauer, Vositha
Wijenayake, Kairos Dela Cruz, Imran Hasan,
14 36 Faizal Cader, Anjatiana Radoharinirina, Martina
Which phenomena fall under
the category of slow-onset Bibliography Solofofiaviantsoa, Vitu Chinoko, Khampha
Keomanichanh, Senashia Ekanayake and Boucar
processes?
Diouf for their valuable input and feedback
during the preparation and review of this paper
16 or during interviews. We extend our acknowl-
Box: Sea level rise edgments to Flora Hartmann who supported the
literature review for this paper. The authors are
17 also grateful to their colleagues Carolin Becher,
Janina Longwitz und Hanna Fuhrmann for their
Box: Slow-onset processes in
support.
IPCC reports
Publisher
Germanwatch e.V. – Office Bonn
Kaiserstr. 201, D-53113 Bonn, Germany
Phone +49 (0)228 / 60 492-0, Fax -19
www.germanwatch.org
Contact
Laura Schäfer – schaefer@germanwatch.org
This publication is supported by Engagement Global with
funding from the German Federal Ministry for Economic
Cooperation and Development. Germanwatch is responsible for
the content of this publication.
Supported by With funding from theList of tables and figures
List of a
bbre 11 13
via Table 1: Key characteristics Figure 1: Slow-onset
ti on
of climate related slow-onset processes’ chain of effects for
s processes and rapid-onset
events
sea level rise
15
AR4 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 18 Figure 2: The continuum of
Table 2: Slow-onset-related slow-onset processes and
AR5 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
terminology used in relevant sudden-onset events
COP Conference of the Parties to the IPCC reports since 2007
United Nations Framework Convention on
16
Climate Change 27 Figure 3: Historical and
ENDA Environment Development Action Energy, Table 3: Loss and damage projected global average sea
Energy Environment and Development Programme from sea level rise level rise
ESL Extreme Sea Level
19
GDP Gross Domestic Product
Figure 4: Total number of
GMSL Global mean sea level mentions of slow-onset
GMSLR Global mean sea level rise processes, extreme weather
events, and drought in IPCC
IOM International Organization on Migration AR5, WG II
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
19
LECZ Low-elevation coastal zone
Figure 5: Total number of
OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs mentions of slow-onset
RCP Representative (Emission) Concentration Pathway/Scenario processes, extreme weather
events, and drought in IPCC
SIDS Small Island Developing States SR 1.5 °C
SLR Sea level rise
SR1.5 IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C 20
above pre-industrial levels Figure 6: Mentions of specific
slow-onset processes in the
SRCCL IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land IPCC AR5, WG II
degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and
greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems
20
SREX IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Figure 7: Mentions of specific
Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation slow-onset processes in IPCC
SROCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing SR 1.5 °C
Climate
UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea 24
Figure 8: Overview of loss
UNDRR United Nations Office on Disaster Risk Reduction and damage due to slow-
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization onset processes
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNHRC United Nations Human Rights Council
UNU United Nations University
USAID United States Agency for International
Development
USD US Dollar
WIM Warsaw International Mechanism for
Loss & Damage4 | Summary of key facts and definitions
SUMMARY OF
KEY FACTS AND
DEFINITIONS
What is a The effects of climate change can all levels up to the global scale. Slow-
be divided into two categories onset processes’ characteristics can
slow-onset
according to the temporal scale be well understood when compared
process? over which they occur and the with rapid onset events, in the climate
differing speed of manifestation of their context typically referred to as extreme
impacts: slow-onset processes and rap- weather events. Rapid-onset events are
id-onset events. To date, in the climate single, discrete events with a clearly
context, no officially acknowledged identifiable beginning and/or end and
definition of slow-onset processes that occur or reoccur in a matter of days
has been established. For this paper, or even hours at a local, national, or
slow-onset processes are understood region scale (UNHCR 2018).
as phenomena caused or intensified
by anthropogenic climate change that This paper considers increasing Which
take place over prolonged periods of mean temperatures, sea level phenomena
time – typically years, decades, or even rise, ocean acidification, glacial
fall under the
centuries – without a clear start or end retreat, permafrost degradation,
point (see UNFCCC 2012, UNU 2017, salinisation, land and forest deg-
category of
UNHRC 2018, IPCC 2007 and 2012). radation, and desertification, slow-onset
Slow-onset processes evolve through as well as loss of biodiversity, processes?
gradual transformations - creeping or as slow-onset processes (see
incremental changes that can generate UNFCCC 2017, UNU 2017). The paper
severe, cumulative and potentially puts a special emphasis on the distinct
irreversible impacts on ecological and slow-onset process of sea level rise,
human systems. Impacts take place at which is one of the most urgent suchSummary of key facts and definitions | 5
processes in Senegal, our case study a higher number of non-economic than
country. Droughts are a special case economic losses and damages.
and not included in the list of these
processes. Droughts result from a pat- Slow-onset processes are interlinked
tern of extreme weather that persists for and mutually reinforcing. They all lead
some time (e.g. a season) and can be to a damage and/or loss of ecosystems
classified as an extreme climate event and their services, leading to a decrease
(IPCC 2014c). and loss of biodiversity. Slow-onset pro-
cesses and the losses and damages they
What losses Loss and damage is under- cause can be drivers of human mobility
and damages stood as “adverse impacts of (Rigaud et al. 2017). Migration as an
human-induced climate change adaptation strategy or way of dealing
do slow-onset
that cannot be avoided by with loss and damage, however, can lead
processes cause? mitigation or adaptation, or to further non-economic losses, such as
that will not be avoided in the loss of culture and traditions, language,
future by adaptation due to insuffi- social networks, identity and commu-
cient resources” (Mace/Verheyen 2016: nity cohesion (Campbell/Warrick 2014).
198). A main distinction can be made Research showed that slow-onset cli-
between economic loss and damage mate changes are more likely to induce
(including [a] physical assets and [b] increased migration and displacement
income) and non-economic loss and than rapid-onset changes (Kaczan /
damage (including [a] material and Orgill-Meyer 2020). Research also hints
[b] non-material forms). The analysis that, similar to rapid-onset events, slow-
for this paper (see section 3) showed onset processes and resulting losses
that all slow-onset processes cause a and damages particularly affect vulner-
high number of different losses and able people in countries of the Global
damages; sea level rise and land and South (Warner/van der Geest 2013, Zorn
forest degradation lead to the greatest 2018). This is also partially due to the
number of losses and damages. This fact that slow-onset processes, as well
includes economic damage to physical as climate-related rapid-onset events,
assets (e.g. infrastructure and property) and related hazards perpetuate collec-
and income (e.g. losses for fisheries and tive and individual vulnerabilities (van
aquaculture, losses in livestock and der Geest/Schindler 2017). These parts
agriculture production, and losses for of the population are more vulnerable
tourism). It also includes non-economic to a hazard’s damaging effects (because,
loss and damage in its material form for instance, their livelihood depends on
(e.g. damage to ecosystems and their fewer assets and their consumption is
services, and loss of land area or terri- closer to subsistence levels) but have
tory) and non-material form (e.g. loss of lower coping capacity (because, for
heritage, identity, health, and local and instance, they cannot rely on savings to
indigenous culture). In the analysis the buffer the impacts and may need longer
selected slow-onset processes caused to rebuild and recover).6 | Introduction
INTRO
DUCTION
What is the background of this
paper and the series?
The effects of climate change can be divided into two
categories according to the temporal scale over which
they occur and the differing speed of manifestation of
their impacts. There are rapid-onset events, typically
referred to as extreme weather events in the climate
context (e.g. cyclones and heatwaves). Meanwhile, there
are slow-onset processes unfolding slowly and gradu-
ally over years, decades, or centuries (e.g. sea level rise,
ocean acidification, and desertification). Both types of
events substantially impact people’s lives, cause loss
and damage, hinder enjoyment of human rights, and
drive human mobility. The first priority should there-
fore be to prevent or minimise this potential damage
through effective mitigation, adaptation, and risk-re-
duction measures. Prevention or minimisation of all
loss and damage is, however, no longer possible; cli-
mate change is already leading to unavoidable losses
and will increasingly do so in the future. Taking this into
account, it appears essential to address the unavoidable
residual loss and damage, especially those for coun-
tries particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.Introduction | 7
In contrast with extreme weather events, addressing weather events. A number of gaps and challenges
losses and damages caused by slow-onset processes in coping with and managing slow-onset processes
is still neglected in the climate change context, both and related loss and damage can explain this. These
at the national and international levels. include a lack of common understanding of the termi-
nology related to slow-onset processes, and a lack of
Neglecting the issue undermines the scale of the chal- data and knowledge on the losses and damage slow-
lenge. Scientists conclude that in the long term, more onset processes cause (particularly at the local level).
people will be affected by slow-onset processes than These also include a lack of clarity about the question
by extreme weather events. The example of sea level of how countries currently deal with these losses, and
rise (SLR) effectively illustrates the problem’s global finally a lack of clarity regarding adequate measures
dimension. By 2050, sea level rise will threaten 300 to deal with losses and damage from slow-onset pro-
million people living in low-lying coastal areas as cesses. The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and the
they live on land below projected annual flood levels Cryosphere thus states that, ‘[m]ore work is needed
(Kulp/Strauss 2019). Estimates of global economic to explore the range of activities available to respond
losses from coastal flooding due to SLR amount to to L&D [loss and damage] resulting from slow onset
> 4 % of world GDP (Schinko et al. 2020). For low-lying processes in the scope of the SROCC report (...)’ (IPCC
developing countries and Small Island Developing 2019a: 630).
States (SIDS), however, its effects will be particularly
severe, and in some cases existential. Based on cur-
rent greenhouse gas emissions, researchers assume What is the objective of the
most atolls will become uninhabitable before the paper series on addressing loss
mid-21st century. Already today, SLR is causing sub- and damage from slow-onset
stantive non-economic losses. In Senegal, our case processes?
study country, the effects of sea level mixed with
other anthropogenic factors are threatening the World This series responds to the above-described chal-
Heritage Site of Saint-Louis. Other communities are lenges. This first paper introduces slow-onset
already submerged, despite adaptation measures. processes and resulting losses and damages. The
Thousands of people have already been displaced, second analyses the status quo, challenges, and gaps
and many more will follow in the future. Of Saint-Louis in addressing losses and damages from slow-onset
territory, 80 % will be at risk of flooding by 2080 and processes at the national and international levels.
150,000 people will have to relocate (Government Finally, the third paper analyses financial tools and
of Senegal/World Bank 2013). Most of West Africa’s instruments to address losses and damages from slow-
coastal cities, home to 105 million people, face a sim- onset processes. Through the analyses, we seek to
ilar threat. foster awareness of the urgency to act in this area, and
provide input for processes at the national and inter-
Despite this urgency, the political Loss and Damage[1] national levels. This is with the aim of finding tangible
debate on national and international level and related and feasible solutions to address loss and damage
measures to address losses and damage often still from slow-onset processes. The series is prepared in
have a focus on dealing with the impacts of extreme the context of the ‘Multi-Actor Partnership on Climate
1 We use the term ‘loss and damage’ or ‘losses and damages’ (lowercase letters) to refer to harm from adverse effects of climate change and ‘Loss
and Damage’ (capitalized letters) for the political debate, particularly under the UNFCCC (see e.g. IPCC 2019a). For a definition of ‘loss and damage’
see section three.8 | Introduction
and Disaster Risk Financing’[2] project. It includes a case phenomena fall under the category of slow-onset pro-
study from the partner country Senegal and contains cesses? A separate box describes how the IPCC uses the
insights from the other partner countries of Malawi, terminology. Subsequently, it summarises key charac-
Madagascar, Laos, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. teristics of slow-onset processes, also in comparison
with rapid-onset events. The introduction to these
characteristics is deliberately kept detailed, as they
What does this first part, ‘Slow- form the basis for analysis of potential financial tools
onset Processes and Resulting Loss and instruments for dealing with loss and damage
and Damage – An introduction,’ under the specific consideration of these character-
cover? istics in the third part of the series. In a second step,
this paper presents losses and damages due to slow-
This part starts the series by navigating the maze onset processes. It details the different types of losses
of words that emerged in the context of slow-onset and damages (economic and non-economic) resulting
processes. It clarifies the questions of: What are slow- from slow-onset processes in general and for the spe-
onset processes? What are other relevant terms for the cial case of SLR. The final section gives insights on the
terminology around slow-onset processes? and Which losses and damages in Senegal due to SLR.
2 The Multi-Actor-Partnership on Climate and Disasters Risk Financing in the Context of the InsuResilience Global Partnership project is carried
out by a consortium of civil society organization. The main focus of the project is capacity development and the establishment/expansion of
multi-actor dialogue platforms at national and global levels in order to promote the development and implementation of gender-equitable,
poverty-oriented and human rights-based approaches to climate risk financing. The project is carried out in Malawi, Madagascar, Laos, Philippines,
Sri Lanka, Senegal, Caribbean by implementing partners from the project countries. The overall coordination is led by CARE Germany with
Germanwatch and Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII). The project is supported by Engagement Global with funding from the German
Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. For more information and a detailed project summary see: https://careclimatechange.org/
multi-actor-partnership-climate-and-disaster-risk-finance-in-the-context-of-the-insuresilience-global-partnership-igp/.Slow-onset processes and their key characteristics | 9
SLOW-
ONSET
PROCESSES
AND THEIR KEY CHARACTERISTICS
What is a slow-onset process?
Climate change causes and/or exacerbates natural
hazards that pose a threat to, among other things,
human security, sustainable development, and
human rights (Schäfer, Künzel & Jorks 2020). Climate
change’s adverse impacts can be divided into two
categories based on their temporal rate of occurrence
and the differing speed at which their impacts appear.
There are rapid-onset events, in the climate context
typically also referred to as extreme weather events.
These include cyclones or heatwaves. The duration of
these discrete events is typically measured in hours,
days, or months (UNHRC 2018). There are also cli-
mate change effects unfolding slowly and gradually
over years, decades, or centuries (UNFCCC 2012).
These include e.g. sea level rise and are referred to
herein as slow-onset processes. This categorisation
stems from the original terminology used in the Bali
Action Plan (2007), which classifies direct climate
impacts either as ‘acute’ or ‘chronic’ (UNFCCC 2008).
While ‘acute’ impacts are described as ‘short-term’
and ‘highly severe,’ ‘chronic’ impacts are charac-
terised as ‘entirely anthropogenic’ and ‘gradual.’10 | Slow-onset processes and their key characteristics
No official definition of slow-onset processes impact, rapid-onset events and slow-onset processes
has been established to date in the climate con- differ in a large number of characteristics.
text. International organisations, including the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Table 1 summarises the key characteristics of slow-
the United Nations Framework Condition on Climate onset processes compared to these of rapid-onset
Change (UNFCCC), the International Organisation for events. Beyond these key characteristics, which distin-
Migration (IOM), and the United Nations Office for guish slow-onset processes from rapid-onset events,
Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), have used several there are further typical attributes and features of
terms to describe the climate change-related phenom- slow-onset processes important for understanding
enon of slow-onset processes and related impacts. their nature.
They include: slow-onset events, creeping changes,
slow incremental changes, slow-onset hazards, slow- a) Interlinked and mutually enforcing nature
onset perils, slow-onset effects of climate change, of different slow-onset processes
chronic climate impacts, and slow-onset impacts (see The progress of one slow-onset process is often highly
IPCC 2012, IPCC 2007, UNFCCC 2008 & UNHRC 2018, interlinked with that in others, such as SLR and salinity
IOM 2020, UNU 2017). Even in IPCC reports, the term intrusion, leading to loss of soil fertility and a change
is not used consistently. In relevant IPCC reports and in delta ecosystems. Slow-onset processes, thus, are
special reports since 2007, 13 different types of slow- highly interconnected and sometimes exacerbate
onset terminology can be identified as having been or trigger one another. Temperature rise and glacier
used without a definition and often used without a retreat, for instance, are two slow-onset processes
description of the phenomena the term encompasses that are simultaneously among the main contributors
(see box ‘Slow-onset processes in IPCC reports’). to SLR (Carbon Brief 2019). SLR, however, is a major
The following paragraphs will therefore provide a contributor to land degradation and loss of biodiver-
detailed description of the characteristics of slow- sity. For example, marine intrusion at just 1 m of sea
onset processes, concluding with a definition of the level would severely impact protected areas (0–58.3 %
phenomenon. loss), ecoregions (0–90.0 % loss), and endemic species
(41–50 % loss) across New Guinea (Legra 2009).
What are key characteristics of b) Interlinked nature of rapid-onset events
slow-onset processes? and slow-onset processes
Slow-onset processes can occur coincidently, simulta-
Slow-onset process’ characteristics can be approached neously, or sequentially with rapid-onset events. This
through comparison with those of climate-related leads to even more substantial disruption of natural
rapid-onset events. Rapid-onset events are single, dis- and human systems due to simultaneous manifesta-
crete events with a clearly identifiable beginning and/ tion of multiple hazards and impacts. Consequences
or end and that occur or reoccur in a matter of days include increased rates of SLR together with increases
or even hours at the local, national, or regional scale in severe rainfall, storm surges, and associated
(UNFCCC 2012, IOM 2020). Slow-onset processes, how- flooding (IPCC 2019a: 624). Other examples are SLRs’
ever, lack a clearly identifiable start or end and are of relationship with so-called extreme sea level (ESL)
a gradually evolving, creeping, or incremental nature events, which (excluding tsunamis) result from trop-
(IOM 2020). Their severity only manifests through ical or extra-tropical cyclones, as a combination of
environmental transformation or degradation over a high tides and storm surges, and in many cases a
long period – usually years, decades or even centuries dynamic wave component. Little et al. (2015) acknowl-
(UNHRC 2018). Impacts take place at all levels up to edge this dual role of regional SLR and tropical cyclone
the global scale. Beyond the timeframe and level of frequency and intensity changes for future flood riskSlow-onset processes and their key characteristics | 11
Table 1: Key characteristics of climate related slow-onset processes
and rapid-onset events
Rapid-onset event Slow-onset process
Type of event/ Gradual, creeping, incremental
Single, discrete events
process process
Slowly unfolding over years,
decades, or centuries
Occur within days or hours
Might accelerate over time (e.g. SLR)
Timeframe Gradual manifestation
Clearly identifiable start and end Creeping and gradual, no clearly
point identifiable start and/or end point
Slow-onset processes, per se, are
foreseeable phenomena, but:
(1) they interact with anthropogenic
Not foreseeable regarding their fre- parameters and external stressors,
Predictability quency and intensity resulting in uncertainty about con-
crete impacts;
(2) their manifestation differs at the
local level
Highly visible impacts Damage through creeping environ-
mental transformation or degradation Source: Author,
Major damage in a very short time
Impacts based on
Limited to a specific geographical Gradual impact over a longer period information
area of time from IOM 2020,
UNFCCC 2012,
Potentially spread out over larger
Level of Appears at local, national, and UNHCR 2018,
geographical areas up to the global
impacts regional scale
level
Staupe-Delgado
2019
(IPCC 2019a: 624). Buchanan et al. (2017) addressed the expected annual number of present-day 100-year
this issue across different level of extremes, focusing events (i.e. events currently with a 1 % chance of occur-
on the United States. Importantly, they found SLR rence in any given year) by 2050 under a moderate
would result in stronger increases in the number of SLR scenario (representative concentration pathway
moderate (or high-frequency) events in some places, [RCP] 4.5)[3]. This highlights how SLR and, in partic-
such as the East Coast cities of Charleston or New York. ular, the accompanying changes in ESL, will lead to a
Other areas, such as Seattle on the West Coast, would rapid increase in flood risk over the next few decades.
experience a more rapid increase in the number of rare Other interrelations of SLR with other physical pro-
extreme (or low-frequency) events. On average, across cesses include decadal-scale variability in ocean
all study sites, there would be a 25-fold increase in circulation (e.g. Firing et al. 2004), often associated
3 The IPCC described RCP 4.5 as an intermediate scenario. Emissions in RCP 4.5 peak around 2040, then decline. According to the IPCC, RCP 4.5
requires that carbon dioxide emissions start declining by approximately 2045 to reach roughly half of the levels of 2050 by 2100.12 | Slow-onset processes and their key characteristics
with large-scale climatic patterns such as the Pacific of soils, groundwater, and surface waters. These haz-
decadal oscillation (Bromirski et al. 2011), as well as ards can lead to direct impacts, such as damage or loss
interannual variability, such as occurs during phases of coastal ecosystems and their services due to land
of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (NOAA 2017). being permanently underwater. They can also lead to
indirect impacts, such as loss of health due to loss of a
c) Cascading nature of slow-onset processes source of calories from coastal ecosystems.[6] Figure 1
As stated, changes in one of an ecological system’s displays the chain of effects for SLR.
components (e.g. sea level) can cause cascading
impacts and bring about numerous consequences, d) Hybrid nature
such as food insecurity or displacement. It must fur-
ther be noted that one slow-onset processes impact Most slow-onset processes-induced impacts cannot
(e.g. SLR) may trigger a multitude of hazardous be solely attributed to these processes; rather, they
impacts (e.g. coastal erosion, salinity intrusion, leading are simultaneously influenced by other anthropo-
to soil fertility loss and delta ecosystem change). genic parameters (Raymond et al. 2020). Slow-onset
Additionally, as described under the above points a processes therefore can be shaped by internal char-
and b, slow-onset processes are highly interconnected acteristics of the different systems and external
and are interrelated with rapid-onset events. Owing confounding factors, such as longstanding stressors
to these interdependencies, slow-onset processes (e.g. overexploitation of natural resources). These fac-
can be described as underlying cascading effects,[4] tors’ interaction with slow-onset processes shows the
which are complex, multi-dimensional, and constantly complexity of managing the associated risks. A litera-
evolving over time. An example of such an effect is ture review (Matias 2017) identified natural resource
that mean temperature rise leads to biodiversity loss extraction and exploitation, pollution, land use change,
in coral reefs. Since corals also fulfil the function of industrialisation, and force majeure, among others, as
protecting coasts from waves, their loss due to bleach- external factors exacerbating slow-onset processes’
ing-induced mortality also increases flooding risk, impacts (Matias 2017: 8). For example, floods due to
which SLR already exacerbates (IPCC 2019a: 624). rising sea levels may be exacerbated by both natural
and anthropogenic vertical land movement due to, for
Slow-onset processes also lead to risks to and impacts instance, overexploitation of groundwater or post-gla-
on ecosystems, people, human activities, and the built cial rebound (see NOAA 2017, NASA 2020). However,
environment (IPCC 2019a). According to the IPCC’s studies of trend attribution have provided relevant
conceptual framework, hazards, vulnerability, and information about the influence of climate change
exposure are the major drivers of changes in disaster on some slow-onset processes including SLR, and
risks and of impacts when risk is realised (IPCC 2014, increasing temperatures (James et al. 2019). It was
2016). The severity of impacts therefore depends demonstrated that anthropogenic activity has influ-
strongly on the level of vulnerability[5] and exposure to enced global warming, and also regional warming on
certain slow-onset processes. With SLR, one potential six contents. On top of that, the global increase in SLR
chain of effects is the intensification of coastal haz- has also been attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse
ards such as enhanced flooding, and the salinisation gases (Bindoff et al. 2013).
4 A ‘cascading effect’ is an overall impact scenario timeline in which initial impacts can directly or indirectly trigger other unforeseen, adverse phe-
nomena and sequences of events that lead to consequences of significant magnitude and damages inflicted on elements at risk, such as physical,
social, or economic disruption (cf. Pescaroli & Alexander 2015).
5 According to the IPCC (2018: 67) ‘vulnerability and exposure are dynamic, varying across temporal and spatial scales, and depend on economic,
social, geographic, demographic, cultural, institutional, governance, and environmental factors.’
6 ‘Risk’ refers to potential negative impacts of climate change where something of value is at stake, recognising the diversity of values. Risks depend
on hazards, exposure, vulnerability (including sensitivity and capacity to respond), and likelihood. (IPCC 2018).Slow-onset processes and their key characteristics | 13
Figure 1: Slow-onset processes’ chain of effects for sea level rise
GLOBAL & COASTAL DIRECT AND
REGIONAL HAZARDS INDIRECT IMPACTS
MEAN SLR
CLIMATE Sea level hazards E.g. temporary or E.g. damage or loss of
CHANGE Local mean SLR permanent sub-
mergence of land,
coastal and marine eco-
systems, and their services
Local extreme SLR enhanced floo- E.g. loss of health due to a
ding, salinisation loss of source of calories
from coastal ecosystems
(fish proteins)
NON-CLIMATE VULNERABILITY
ANTHROPOGENIC AND
DRIVERS EXPOSURE
E.g. settlement (environmental and
Source: Author, based
patterns, human- human dimensions)
on information from induced ecosystem
IPCC 2019a, degradation
pp. 326 and 375
e) Tipping points and permanent shifts
Slow-onset processes and their impacts span a broad freshwater wetlands to one dominated by mangroves
range of natural systems. Failing to manage their asso- occurred suddenly, following a single storm surge
ciated risks may lead to the ecological thresholds or event (Ross et al. 2009).
tipping points of systems being crossed (IPCC 2012).
This can result in nonlinear instabilities in a system Based on the previous application of terminology in
and domino-like, potentially irreversible damages, differing contexts, as well as further characterisations
because ‘once an ecological threshold is crossed, such as those mentioned above, for this paper, slow-
the ecosystem in question is not likely to return to its onset processes are understood as phenomena caused
previous state’ (CCSP 2009). Two examples of major or intensified by anthropogenic climate change that
SLR-related tipping points are the potentially irrevers- take place over prolonged periods of time – typically
ible retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which could years, decades, or even centuries –without a clear start
lead to ≤7 m of SLR, and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, or end point. Slow-onset processes evolve through
which could lead to 3 m. There is also some indication gradual transformations – creeping or incremental
that interactions among rapid-onset and slow-onset changes that can generate severe, cumulative, and
events may result in thresholds being crossed. For potentially irreversible impacts on ecological and
example, a study in the US state of Florida found that human systems at all levels (see, for example, IOM
once sea level reached a critical level, the transition 2020, UNFCCC 2012, UNU 2017, UNHRC 2018, IPCC
from a landscape characterised by upland forests and 2007 & 2012).14 | Slow-onset processes and their key characteristics
What are other relevant terms for The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
the terminology on slow-onset (OCHA) uses this term for drought, and notes that
processes? broader global challenges such as climate change,
urbanisation, food and energy price spikes, and irreg-
As mentioned, a number of different terms are ular migration can, in combination, ultimately result
applied in the context of slowly, gradually evolving in more slow-onset emergencies.
climate-related phenomena. Another term frequently
used synonymously with slow-onset processes as
used in this paper is ‘slow-onset events’ (see Cancun Which phenomena fall under the
Adaptation Framework 2010). From our perspective, category of slow-onset processes?
use of the term ‘event’ is misleading and inade-
quate, as it suggests a ‘discrete occurrence of a single For slow-onset processes, there is neither an official
phenomenon that can be clearly identified in time’ definition nor a list of phenomena grouped under this
(UNU 2017), as opposed to the gradual natural and category of climate change impacts. The following
human-induced changes. We therefore do not use the classifications exist:
term in this publication series.
• IPCC reports (2019, 2018, 2014, 2012) group the
The areas of disaster risk reduction and humanitarian following phenomena under the terminology
action also deal with slowly evolving processes (both of slow-onset processes/slow-onset climate
climate-related and non-climate-related), but with a impacts/slow-onset perils/slow-onset hazards:
focus on their impacts. This is reflected in the termi- ocean changes, SLR, glacier retreat, mountain and
nology used. UNDRR uses ‘slow-onset disaster’ and polar cryosphere changes, ocean acidification,
this is also established in the Sendai Framework. permafrost thaw, rising mean temperatures and
UNDRR understands it as a disaster “that emerges variability in temperature and water, desertifica-
gradually over time. Slow-onset disasters could be tion, precipitation changes, ecosystem changes,
associated with, for example, drought, desertification, land degradation, and drought (see box ‘Slow-
sea-level rise, epidemic disease” (UNDRR 2015: 12). onset processes in IPCC reports’ for details).)
The IPCC defines disasters as “severe alterations in the • The Conference of the Parties to the United Nations
normal functioning of a community or a society due Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP)
to hazardous physical events interacting with vulner- Decision 1/COP.16 contains a list of slow-onset
able social conditions, leading to widespread adverse processes considered particularly relevant for
human, material, economic, or environmental effects the UNFCCC’s mandate, including, ‘sea level rise,
that require immediate emergency response to satisfy increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, gla-
critical human needs and that may require external cial retreat and related impacts, salinization, land
support for recovery.” (IPCC 2012: 558). Based on this and forest degradation, loss of biodiversity and
understanding, slow-onset processes do not cause a desertification’ (UNFCCC 2012: 3).
disaster by themselves. They can result in a slow-onset
disaster when combined with societal vulnerabilities
• UNU includes SLR, coastal erosion, salinisation,
ocean acidification, temperature rise, desert-
and lack of preparation and response measures. ification, and changing rainfall patterns in its
categorisation. Droughts are categorised as a spe-
The term ‘slow-onset emergency’ is frequently used cial case, since their manifestation and respective
in humanitarian action. It is defined as an emergency response measures often resemble sudden-onset
that “does not emerge from a single, distinct event events (UNU 2017).
but one that emerges gradually over time, often based
on a confluence of different events” (OCHA 2011: 3).Slow-onset processes and their key characteristics | 15 For this paper, we consider increasing mean tem- distinct slow-onset process of SLR, which is one of peratures, sea level rise, ocean acidification, glacial the most urgent process in Senegal, our case study retreat, permafrost degradation, salinisation, land country. Droughts are a special case and not included and forest degradation, and desertification, as well in the list. These result from a pattern of extreme as loss of biodiversity, as slow-onset processes. The weather that persists for some time (e.g. a season) Annex gives a detailed definition for each of these and can be classified as an extreme climate event events. This paper particularly emphasises the (IPCC 2014c). Figure 2: The continuum of slow-onset processes and sudden-onset events Source: Huggel 2016
16 | Slow-onset processes and their key characteristics
BOX: SEA LEVEL RISE
Global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) refers to under all RCPs at the end of the 21st century,
the worldwide average rise in mean sea level including those compatible with achieving the
(UNFCCC 2012). Sea level change can be both Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal
global and local (relative sea level changes). of well below 2 °C. The IPCC (2019a) projected
It is caused by different processes, such as a the GMSL will rise between 0.43 m (RCP2.6) and
change in ocean volume (e.g. through melting 0.84 m (RCP8.5) by 2100 relative to 1986–2005.
glaciers and ice sheets or expanding volume Beyond 2100, sea level will continue to rise for
due to temperature increase), or by salinity centuries due to continuing deep ocean heat
changes (IPCC 2018). The sum of glacier and uptake and mass loss of the Greenland and
ice sheet contributions is now the dominant Antarctic ice sheets, and will remain elevated
source of GMSLR (IPCC 2019a). During the last 3 for thousands of years. The IPCC scenarios
million years, the global mean sea level (GMSL) are based on rather conservative calculation
has exceeded 5 m above present levels, when models. Vermeer and Ramsdorf (2009) pub-
global mean temperature was ≤2 °C warmer lished a semi-empirical estimate of 1.00–1.40 m
than in pre-industrial times (IPCC 2014c: 1140). for the period 1990–2100, depending on the
The rate of GMSLR since 1900 has been faster RCP. This is significantly more than the IPCC’s
than during any comparable period over at corresponding values. Recent publications
least the last 2,800 years (Kopp et al. 2016a). even recognised that a GMSLR > 2 m is possible
even if global mean temperature rise is limited
Future SLR is highly dependent on the RCP to 2 °C by the end of the 21st century (Bamber
followed. However, it is projected to be faster et al. 2019).
Figure 3: Historical and projected global average sea level rise
Source: USGCRP 2018Slow-onset processes and their key characteristics | 17 The rate of SLR varies spatially across the in sediment supply from rivers due to dam world, owing to a variety of factors (Church et building also influence local relative sea level. al. 2004; Nicholls/Cazenave, 2010). Thermal These activities are more relevant to SLR than expansion, ocean dynamics, and land ice loss global climate change in some areas (Ericson et contributions will generate regional depar- al. 2006). Densely populated deltas are partic- tures of about ± 30 % around the GMSLR (IPCC ularly vulnerable to such activities due to their 2019a). Temperature and salinity changes can geological nature (Hinkel et al. 2014). Human- contribute significantly to regional sea level induced local relative changes in sea level can change (Church et al. 2010). Gravitational and therefore be a key source of uncertainty about rotational effects from changes in ice masses the risks coastal areas face (ibid.). and ocean circulation also influence the rise’s regional distribution. These effects lead to the rise being higher in the tropics than at high lat- itudes (Hinkel et al. 2014). Moreover, changes in local relative sea level substantially vary because of biophysical and geological processes such as vertical land movements and changes in ocean circulation patterns. Human activities such as extraction of groundwater or oil, mining, and changes BOX: SLOW-ONSET PROCESSES IN IPCC REPORTS Unlike extreme weather events, slow-onset throughout the reports and are often used processes as a category are not defined in IPCC without a description of types of processes reports. A comparison of different reports finds grouped under them. The following table sum- a variety of slow-onset-related terminology. marises the varying terminology used in relevant The terms, however, are not used consistently IPCC Reports and Special Reports since 2007.
18 | Slow-onset processes and their key characteristics
Table 2: Slow-onset-related terminology used in relevant IPCC reports since 2007
Types of processes
Term IPCC Report
described under term
Ocean changes, sea level rise, glacier retreat,
Slow-onset processes mountain and polar cryosphere changes, as SROCC, p. 88
well as ocean acidification
Slow-onset perils Sea level rise, drought, and permafrost thaw AR5, WG II, p. 1445
Rising temperatures and variability in tem-
AR5, WG II, p. 115
Slow-onset hazard perature and water (AR5)
SREX, p. 80
Drought, desertification (SREX)
Recurrent droughts (AR5, SREX)
“(…) slow-onset events may lead to AR5, WG II, p. 809
increased displacement, disrupted food
Slow-onset events/ chains, threatened livelihoods (high con- SR 1.5, p. 67
Slow-onset climate events fidence), and contribute to exacerbated SRCCL, pp. 16, 513, 755
stresses for conflict” (SR Land)
SREX, p. 88
Term used without description of processes
in SRCCL and SR 1.5
Slow-onset disaster Term used without description of processes AR4, WG II, p. 382
Changes in precipitation, changes in ecosys-
tems, land degradation, desertification (SR
Slow-onset impacts/ Land)
AR5, WG II, pp. 885, 553
Slow onset climate ‘Slow onset climate impacts and risks can
impacts/ exacerbate or otherwise interact with social SR 1.5, p. 456
Impacts of slow-onset conflict corresponding with movement at
SRCCL, p. 690
climate change larger scales’ (SR Land)
Term used without description of processes
in SRCCL
Slow-onset climate change Term used without description of processes SRCCL, p. 513
‘Climate change is typically viewed as a slow-
Slow-onset problems onset, multigenerational problem’
SREX, p. 452
‘The disaster risk research has paid more
attention to sudden-onset hazards and disas-
ters such as floods, storms, tsunamis, etc.,
Creeping changes and less on the measurement of creeping SREX, pp. 88, 94
changes and integrating the issue of tipping
points into these assessments (see also
Section 3.1.7).’
Slow incremental change Sea level rise AR4, WG II, p. 798
SROCC (IPCC 2019a), SRCCL (IPCC 2019b), SR 1.5 (IPCC 2018), AR5 WG II (2014a+b), SREX (IPCC 2012), AR4,
WG II (IPCC 2007)
Source: AuthorSlow-onset processes and their key characteristics | 19
For this paper, a word analysis was conducted Assessment Report, both types are mentioned
to understand how slow-onset processes are at a similar frequency (extreme weather events
reflected in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report = 2,143; slow-onset processes = 2,192). In the
(WG II: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability) IPCC Special Report, slow-onset processes (578)
and the IPCC Special Report Global Warming are mentioned slightly more often than extreme
of 1.5 °C (2018). The first graph shows the total weather events (332). In comparing these types of
number of mentions of slow-onset processes[7] events/processes, we must note only four types of
compared with that of extreme weather events[8] extreme weather events are counted, while there
and drought as a special case. In the IPCC Fifth are nine types of slow-onset processes.
Figure 4: Total number of mentions of slow-onset processes,
extreme weather events, and drought in IPCC AR5, WG II
SLOW-ONSET
PROCESSES 2192
EXTREME
WEATHER 2143
EVENTS
DROUGHT 1128
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Source: Author, based on IPCC 2014a and b
Figure 5: Total number of mentions of slow-onset processes,
extreme weather events, and drought in IPCC SR 1.5 °C
SLOW-ONSET
PROCESSES 578
EXTREME
WEATHER 332
EVENTS
DROUGHT 220
0 200 400
Source: Author, based on IPCC 2018
7, 8 See list of specific processes at the end of this box.20 BIODIVERSITY GLACIAL
LOSS RETREAT
SALINISATION OCEAN
ACIDIFICATION
Regarding the number of mentions for specific LAND AND
FOREST INCREASING
slow-onset processes, both IPCC reports show a DEGRADATION TEMPERATURE
broad coverage of SLR, followed by ocean acidi-
DESERTIFICATION SEA LEVEL RISE
fication and/or increasing temperature. All other
processes receive minimal mention.
DEGRADATION
OF PERMAFROST
Figure 6: Mentions of specific slow-onset
processes in the IPCC AR5, WG II
938
59
21
27
17 568
58
63
341
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Source: Author, based on IPCC 201 a and b
Figure 7: Mentions of specific slow-onset
processes in IPCC SR 1.5 °C
10
3
16
14
27
5
103
135
265
0 50 100 150 200 250
Source: Author, based on IPCC 2018Slow-onset processes and their key characteristics | 21
We must note that, since 2019, the IPCC pub- Special Report on Climate Change and Land
lished two reports that particularly address (2019b). A more detailed analysis would be
slow-onset processes: the IPCC Special Report needed to look into what exactly is discussed
on the Ocean and Cryosphere (2019a) and the for the different areas.
REGARDING THE IPCC WORD ANALYSIS
The following terms were used for slow- ■ Land and forest degradation (including
onset processes and extreme weather land degradation, forest degradation)
events. ■ Desertification
■ Biodiversity loss (including loss of
SLOW-ONSET PROCESSES
biodiversity)
■ Sea level rise (also: SLR)
■ Increasing temperature (including tem- EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
perature increase, temperature rise)
■ Tropical cyclones and other extreme
■ Ocean acidification storms (including cyclone, hurricane,
typhoon, tropical storm, extreme storm)
■ Glacier retreat (including glacier
shrinkage, glacier melt, glacier mass loss) ■ Heat wave (including extreme heat
[event]), heat event)
■ Permafrost degradation (including
decreases in the extent of permafrost, ■ Floods (including flooding [not including
thawing of permafrost, permafrost coastal flooding due to SLR])
thawing, permafrost melting, permafrost
■ Heavy rainfall (including extreme
loss)
precipitation)
■ Salinisation22 | Loss and damage due to slow-onset processes
LOSS AND
DAMAGE
DUE TO SLOW-ONSET PROCESSES
What is loss and damage?
The impacts of slow-onset processes, such as SLR,
can already be felt around the globe. Science clearly
shows these impacts will substantially worsen with
further global warming (IPCC 2018). While the first and
most essential step to avoid future climate change
impacts is to effectively reduce greenhouse gas emis-
sions, historical greenhouse gas emissions and locked
in investments in fossil fuel industries have already
committed us to a certain level of climate impacts.
Moreover, not all climate change impacts can be suc-
cessfully prevented or minimized by adaptation or risk
reduction measures, whether because of financial,
technical, or physical constraints.[9] Hence, climate
change will lead to losses and damages induced by
slow-onset processes as well as extreme weather
events.
9 The IPCC (2014) differentiates between hard adaptation limits (those
that will not change, for instance, thresholds in physical systems or
exceedance of the physiological capacity of individual organisms
or communities to adapt to changes), and soft adaptation limits
(which could change over time, for instance, economics, technology,
infrastructure, laws and regulations, or broader social and cultural
considerations).Loss and damage due to slow-onset processes | 23
damage due to slow-onset processes. In this context,
it must be note that multiple factors contribute to a
specific loss or damage. Besides anthropogenic emis-
sions, natural modes of climate variability, as well as
other drivers that influence exposure and vulnera-
bility, need to be considered.
A main distinction can be made between economic and
non-economic losses and damages. Climate change
hazards cause loss and damage of items (resources,
goods, and services) that are commonly traded in
markets. Examples include property and infrastruc-
ture. Affected people, however, also experience loss of
material and non-material items that cannot be traded
(Serdeczny 2018). Examples include loss of cultural
With no official definition, this paper understands loss identify, human health, and lives. Non-economic loss
and damage as, “adverse impacts of human-induced and damage can take material (e.g. lives, biodiver-
climate change that cannot be avoided by mitigation sity, and territory) and non-material (e.g. identity and
or adaptation, or that will not be avoided in the future physical and mental health) forms (Morrissey/Oliver-
by adaptation due to insufficient resources” (Mace/ Smith 2013). For this paper, we differentiate between
Verheyen 2016: 198). According to Verheyen (2012), economic loss (including [a] physical assets and [b]
there are three types of loss and damage: avoided, income) and non-economic loss (including [a] material
unavoided, and unavoidable. This reflects that the and [b] non-material forms).
extent of loss and damage considerably depends on
mitigation and adaptation efforts that can avoid loss
and damage, or lead to unavoided loss and damage What losses and damages can result
due to technical, financial, or political constraints and from slow-onset processes?
limits. Yet there is also loss and damage that cannot
be averted via mitigation or adaptation measures; Slow-onset process will cause a wide range of eco-
including loss and damage due to slow-onset pro- nomic and non-economic losses and damages. The
cesses that have already begun, such as SLR (Schinko following figure is based on a literature review con-
et al. 2016). ducted for this paper. It provides a comprehensive
overview of the potential losses and damages resulting
Loss and damage can be caused by extreme weather from the slow-onset processes including increasing
events (e.g. typhoons or floods) and slow-onset pro- mean temperatures, SLR, ocean acidification, glacier
cesses (e.g. glacial melting), as well as events triggered retreat, permafrost degradation, salinisation, land and
by a combination of the aforementioned (e.g. glacial forest degradation, desertification, and biodiversity
melting leading to glacial lake outburst floods). This loss. Annex 1 gives details specific loss and damage
paper focuses on unavoided and unavoidable loss and for each slow-onset process.24 | Loss and damage due to slow-onset processes
Figure 8: Overview of loss and damage due to slow-onset processes
Economic loss and damage
Physical assets Income
Damage and loss of Loss for fisheries
infrastructure and property and aquaculture
Losses in livestock
production
Economic loss of
agriculture production
Reduction and loss of
crop productivity
Losses for the
tourism sector
N
IO
SE
AT
RI
RE
EA L
TU G
ID AN
T
TR CIA
IC
RA IN
T
L
N ES
IF
VE
AC E
PE S
RE A
OC
IO R
M EA
GL
LE
AT FO
TE NCR
A
AD ND
SE
I
GR D A
TY
DE AN
I
RS
L
E
SS IV
LO IOD
B
ON
TI
SA
NI
LI
ST
RO N
SA
AF IO
Material
RM AT
PE RAD
Increased morbidity/
OF EG
mortality, potential loss of live
D
Damage to ecosystems and
their services (e.g. protection)*
Non-economic loss and damage
Decrease and loss of
biodiversity
Decrease and loss of
freshwater availability Non material
Loss of Loss of (cultural)
land area heritage
Productive land
Loss of
identity
Habitat
Loss of
Areas for tourism and recreation
health
Loss of Loss of local and
territory indigenous knowledge
*including coastal and marine ecosystems
Source: Author – see Annex for full list of literatureLoss and damage due to slow-onset processes | 25
The figure makes no claim of completeness and slow-onset process), Birkmann and Welle (2015) show
although it is based on an extensive literature review, that, owing to societies’ higher vulnerability and low
slow-onset processes might lead to loss and damage adaptive capacities, an overwhelming majority, 90 %,
not yet covered by research; thus no scientific evi- of low-income countries face a high or very high risk of
dence is yet available. Based on the current status quo loss and damage due to slow-onset processes, while
of research on slow-onset processes and resulting loss only 5 % of high-income countries face such risks.
and damage, the figure shows:
Slow-onset processes can hinder enjoyment of inter-
• different slow-onset processes cause a high nationally guaranteed human rights, such as adequate
number of different losses and damages – eco- food, water, health, and housing, as well as the right of
nomic and non-economic types self-determination and to take part in cultural life and
• the different slow-onset processes analysed cause enjoy one’s culture. Hindrance comes in ways such as
a higher number of non-economic than economic loss of land, which particularly harms indigenous com-
losses and damages munities (HRC 2018: 16). Consequently, slow-onset
• the interlinked and mutually enforcing nature of processes put those already in vulnerable situations
at the greatest risk of suffering human rights harms as
different slow-onset processes, in that all slow-
onset processes lead to a damage and/or loss a result of the process’ adverse effects (HRC 2018: 17).
of ecosystems and their services, leading to a
decrease and loss of biodiversity Slow-onset processes and the losses and damages
• sea level rise and land and forest degradation lead they cause can be drivers of human mobility. Migration
as an adaptation strategy or way of dealing with loss
to the highest number of losses and damages
and damage, however, can lead to further non-eco-
Research alludes to the fact that, similar to rapid-onset nomic losses, such as loss of culture and traditions,
events, slow-onset processes and resulting losses and language, social networks, identity and community
damages particularly affect vulnerable people in coun- cohesion (Campbell/Warrick 2014). Climate change is
tries of the Global South (Warner/van der Geest 2013, by now recognised as a key driver of human mobility
Zorn 2018). These people are more vulnerable to the (e.g. 2016 United Nations Summit for Refugees and
damaging effects of hazards (because, for instance, Migrants, Global Compact on Migration, Global
their livelihood depends on fewer assets, their con- Compact for Refugees, and UNFCCC Task Force for
sumption is closer to subsistence levels) yet they have Displacement). This applies to both rapid-onset events
lower coping capacity (because, for instance, they and slow-onset processes. There is, however, still a
cannot rely on savings to buffer the impacts and may knowledge gap regarding climate change’s direct influ-
need more time to rebuild and recover). This is also ence on human mobility. We must note that migration
partially due to the fact that slow-onset processes, as is a multi-causal phenomenon and the impacts of
well as climate-related rapid-onset events, and related SLR or extreme weather events are only some of the
hazards perpetuate collective and individual vulnera- many factors relevant in households’ or individuals’
bilities (UNU 2017:37). These processes exert continual decisions to move (Stapelton et al. 2017). A limit for
pressure on people and their livelihoods, so that even voluntary individual or collective decisions to migrate
less-severe events can propel them more quickly into is, however, reached when a place or country becomes
a situation of acute humanitarian need. If livelihoods uninhabitable, such as when rising sea levels neces-
are not restored or strengthened through recovery sitate it. A recent review (Kaczan/Orgill-Meyer 2020:
and development activities, smaller hazards can over- 283) found that regarding elevated temperatures and
whelm households, resulting in a vicious cycle and drought (which we do not classify as a slow-onset
manifested slow-onset disasters (OCHA 2011). For SLR processes), “slow-onset climate changes are more
and drought (the latter of which we do not classify as a likely to induce increased migration than rapid-onsetYou can also read
