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EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Last updated 3/12/2021
[2] COVID-19 infection and mortality tracking in the US and around the world
This section analyzes COVID infections and mortality reported to local, federal and intergovernmental agencies,
and are heavily influenced by testing rates and differences in government reporting standards and capabilities.
As we explain in Section 5, serology tests suggest that the true number of COVID infections may be much higher
than the number of reported infections. However, trends in reported infections are still important to monitor,
since they influence government policy and the behavior of citizens and companies.
Table of contents:
1. What’s new: US infection/hospitalization decline, comparisons with Europe ....................................................... 2
2. What’s new: a closer look at Europe ........................................................................................................................ 3
3. What’s new: Asia, MidEast, South Africa, India region, Eastern Europe and Russia .............................................. 4
4. What’s new: Latin America, South Africa, India region ........................................................................................... 5
5. Summary of global and US infection/mortality trends ............................................................................................ 6
6. COVID at a glance: infections and mortality per mm, and the falling age of infected persons .............................. 7
7. Infection, mortality and hospitalization snapshots.................................................................................................. 8
8. US at a glance: infection, hospitalization and mortality tracking .......................................................................... 10
9. How lethal is COVID, and for whom?...................................................................................................................... 11
Comments on infection data. Several countries show up with almost no COVID outbreak reported. In cases like
New Zealand, Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam and South Korea, we interpret the lack of a material outbreak as possible
based on the quality of data reporting and testing. Other countries which report low incidence of COVID include
Nigeria, Kenya, Angola, DR Congo, Tanzania and Mozambique. As per various news reports 1, there‘s a shortage
of reliable data in many of these countries, and the lack of funds to carry out broad testing. On the other hand,
while infections can be obscured, it’s harder to obscure a sharp rise in mortality; even when accounting for some
under-reporting of deaths, Africa mortality rates are still much lower than expected. The few antibody surveys
conducted in Africa reveal COVID prevalence that is similar to other European countries; in other words, COVID
is spreading in Africa as it is elsewhere. The most likely explanation for lower relative mortality is age: Africa’s
median age is 18, compared to 35 in North America and 42 in Europe. Since those over age 65 experience 80%
of COVID mortality, age distributions are the most likely reason for lower African COVID mortality rates.
On data sources. We generally use infection and mortality data from Johns Hopkins, with any exceptions noted
in chart sources. While JHU data usually match sources such as covidtracking.com and Worldometers, this is
not always the case. Any large differences usually work themselves out over time; even so, such differences are
a warning against over-extrapolating any short term trends seen in the data. There are also patterns in some
countries in which tests and infections drop over the weekend, only to rise the following week. Other anomalies:
countries and US states sometimes make large one-time additions or subtractions to infections or deaths data
to reflect over- or underestimations made over the course of the entire pandemic. JHU and other data providers
do not amortize such adjustments over time and simply reflect them on the day they are made; we do the same.
1
Examples include “In Africa, lack of coronavirus data raises fears of silent epidemic”, Reuters, July 8, 2020; and
“Corona-free? How disinformation could be clouding the true pandemic picture in Africa”, Bulletin of Atomic
Scientists, September 21, 2020.
1
INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS:
• NOT A DEPOSIT • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NO BANK GUARANTEE • MAY LOSE VALUEEYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Co r o n a v ir u s
What’s new: US infection/hospitalization decline, comparisons with Europe
• In the US, infections and hospitalizations falling but still above summer 2020 levels in states with highest
levels of infection/hospitalization; signs of a plateau in infection, particularly in NYC
• Europe and US infection and mortality rates are similar despite very different vaccination rates; both US and
European mortality rates still well above summer 2020 levels
8 highest infection states 8 highest hospitalization states
Daily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 14 days Current hospitalizations, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days
1,400 800
NJ NY RI DE DC NY NJ GA
1,200 700
SC FL GA VT 600 TX FL MO MS
1,000
500
800
400
600
300
400
200
200 100
0 0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: HHS, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
NY counties NYC by borough
Daily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days Daily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days
1,400 1,400
NYC NY Nassau Cty NY Staten Island NY Bronx NY
1,200 1,200
Suffolk Cty NY Westchester NY Queens NY Brooklyn NY
1,000 Buffalo NY Rochester NY 1,000 Manhattan NY
800 800
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
US vs Europe infections US vs Europe mortality
Daily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days Daily deaths, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days
800 12.0
700
Europe US 10.0 US Europe
600
8.0
500
400 6.0
300
4.0
200
2.0
100
0 0.0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
2EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Co r o n a v ir u s
What’s new: a closer look at Europe
• Infections have declined sharply in UK/Denmark even though the more infectious B.1.1.7 variant is 95%/50%
of all new infections. These declines appears to be a result of stringent lockdowns and post-Xmas travel
declines rather than the result of herd immunity via vaccination or survivor antibodies
• After a decline, infections now flat or rising in Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands
• Sweden infections rising (again)
Denmark United Kingdom
700 7 1,000 20
Daily infections # per mm (LHS) Daily infections # per mm (LHS)
600 6
Current hospitalizations # per mm (LHS) 800 Current hospitalizations # per mm (LHS)
15
500 5
Daily deaths # per mm (RHS) Daily deaths # per mm (RHS)
400 4 600
10
300 3 400
200 2
5
200
100 1
0 0 0 0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: JHU, IMF, ECDC, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: JHU, IMF, OWID, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
W Europe Scandinavia
Daily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 14 days Daily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days
900 800
800 FRA ITA NLD
700
SWE DEN NOR FIN ICE
700 600
DEU UK ESP
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200 200
100 100
0 0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
Regional mobility data: US, UK and Denmark Lockdown stringency index: US, UK and Denmark
% change from baseline: retail, restaurants, transit & workplace Index, 100 = highest level of lockdown strictness
10% 100
0% 90
-10% 80
70
-20%
60
-30%
50
-40%
40
-50%
30
-60% US UK
20
-70% Denmark Denmark
10
UK US
-80% 0
Feb '20 May '20 Aug '20 Dec '20 Mar '21 Feb '20 Apr '20 Jun '20 Aug '20 Oct '20 Dec '20 Feb '21
Source: Google, JPMAM. March 5, 2021. 7 day avgs. Source: University of Oxford, JPMAM. March 5, 2021.
3EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Co r o n a v ir u s
What’s new: Asia, MidEast, South Africa, India region, Eastern Europe and Russia
• Infections remain low in Developed and EM Asia
• Israel infections slowing as vaccinations approach 60% of population, but still one of the highest in the
Mideast; see Section 4 for more on Israel and Pfizer vaccine
• Eastern European infections spiking
Developed Asia
Daily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days EM Asia
80 Daily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days
160
70
JPN KOR HK SGP TAI 140
60 MAL PHL IDN THA VNM
120
50 100
40 80
30 60
20 40
10 20
0 0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
Mideast E Europe
Daily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days Daily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days
1,000 1,400
900 LEB ISR KWT UAE CZE HUN SLK POL
1,200
800
700 TUR SAU EGY 1,000 BUL SVN ROM GRC
600 800
500
400 600
300 400
200
200
100
0 0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
Russia region
Daily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days
600
UKR BLR GEO RUS
500
KAZ KGZ UZB TJK
400
300
200
100
0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
4EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Co r o n a v ir u s
What’s new: Latin America, South Africa, India region
• Mortality spike in Manaus (Amazon/Brazil) has rolled over but questions remain about whether reinfection
took place after high levels of herd immunity were believed to have already occurred in 2020. Brazil
mortality trends worsening while other Latin American countries stable or improving modestly
• US and European mortality now converging to Latin American levels
• One of many COVID mysteries: why does Latin America have such a higher infection and mortality rate than
Africa and India; many demographic, weather and socio-economic factors are similar
• South Africa variant rolling over across the region
• India region mortality rates low outside Iran. Seroprevalence testing in India points to 25%-55% levels of
prior infection, leading some Indian scientists to believe that herd immunity has been reached
Regions Brazil states
Daily deaths, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days Daily deaths, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days
12.0 40.0
Latin America US Amazonas Br Sao Paulo Br
35.0
10.0 Europe Africa Minas Gerais Br Bahia Br
30.0
8.0 IND Rio de Janeiro Br
25.0
6.0 20.0
15.0
4.0
10.0
2.0
5.0
0.0 0.0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
Latin America India region
Daily deaths, # per mm, smoothing = 14 days Daily deaths, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days
14.0 6.0
BRA PER MEX NEP IRN PAK
12.0 5.0
10.0 CHL ARG COL IND BAN MYA
4.0
8.0
3.0
6.0
2.0
4.0
2.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
Southern Africa
Daily infections, # per mm, smoothing = 7 days
350
BOT NAM ZMB SAF
300
250 MOZ ZIM ANG
200
150
100
50
0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
5EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Co r o n a v ir u s
Summary of global and US infection/mortality trends
World US
120 2 800 12
2 Daily infections # per mm (LHS)
Daily infections # per mm (LHS) 700
100 2 10
Current hospitalizations # per mm (LHS)
600
80 Daily deaths # per mm (RHS) 1 8
Daily deaths # per mm (RHS)
1 500
60 1 400 6
1 300
40 1 4
200
20 0 2
0 100
0 0 0 0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: JHU, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: JHU, IMF, HHS, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
Dev World ex-US S America
350 7 250 6
300 Daily infections # per mm (LHS) 6 Daily infections # per mm (LHS)
200 5
250 Daily deaths # per mm (RHS) 5 Daily deaths # per mm (RHS) 4
200 4 150
3
150 3 100
2
100 2
50 1
50 1
0 0 0 0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: JHU, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: JHU, IMF, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
US vs Europe infections US vs Europe mortality
Infections to date, levels, smoothing = 1 days Deaths to date, levels, smoothing = 1 days
35,000,000 700,000
30,000,000 600,000
US Europe Europe US
25,000,000 500,000
20,000,000 400,000
15,000,000 300,000
10,000,000 200,000
5,000,000 100,000
0 0
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: Johns Hopkins University, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: Johns Hopkins University, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
6EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Co r o n a v ir u s
COVID at a glance: infections and mortality per mm, and the falling age of infected persons
COVID at a glance: trailing 7 day infection and mortality per mm 50 largest countries by GDP
Mortality per mm, 7 day average US states
10
Countries not shown since they are off the chart: CZE
VA
9
8 BRA
DE
7
AR POL
AZ
CA AL TX
6 OK KY
PER MA
NM MN ITA NJ
5 GA
MEX ESP MS NY
SC
LA FL FRA
US ROM
4 CHL
IA
MO
NV
IRE RI
3 IN NC PA
RUS NE DC
DEU
KS ARG CT
PRT UK IL TN
ME ID AUT ISR
WY MTOHMD WV UT BEL NLD
2 COL WI MI SWE
SAF
WA ND NH SD
SWI CO UAE
1 OR IRN
CAN VT
HI TUR
IDN
EGY
JPN FIN DEN AK
PHL MAL NOR
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Infections per mm, 7 day average
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. March 11, 2021
7EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Co r o n a v ir u s
Infection, mortality and hospitalization snapshots
The two charts below show peak and current levels of infection (top chart) and mortality (bottom chart) for
the 50 largest countries in the world based on GDP. These countries represent 94% of global GDP.
Infection levels for the largest 50 countries based on GDP, peak vs current Peak infection rate per mm
Sorted by trailing 7 day average infection rate per mm people
Latest infection rate per mm
800
1,086
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-45% POL
0% BRA
-67% AUT
-32% UAE
-29% CHL
-58% ARG
-92% IRE
-39% IRN
-68% CAN
-65% RUS
-53% IDN
-79% IND
-66% MAL
-62% EGY
-79% BAN
-99% SGP
-98% AUS
-100% CHN
-65% ISR
-86% BEL
-78% DEN
-65% DEU
-94% PRT
-29% PHL
-94% SAF
-91% SAU
-83% JPN
-71% PAK
-89% VNM
-10% CZE
-39% ITA
-69% FRA
-59% NLD
-52% ROM
-4% NOR
-81% COL
-69% MEX
-58% KOR
-81% NGA
-93% THA
-95% NZL
-88% TAI
-48% SWE
-29% PER
-79% US
-91% TUR
-86% SWI
-2% FIN
-86% ESP
-90% UK
-100
-200
-300
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Countries shown represent 94% of World GDP. March 11, 2021.
Mortality levels for the largest 50 countries based on GDP, peak vs current Peak mortality rate per mm
Sorted by trailing 7 day average mortality rate per mm people
Latest mortality rate per mm
15
14
20
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
0% BRA
-51% POL
-69% CHL
-77% IRE
-26% RUS
-85% ARG
-84% AUT
-27% UAE
-82% IRN
-84% CAN
-47% IDN
-52% EGY
-91% IND
-79% BAN
-100% AUS
-100% SGP
-100% CHN
-75% DEU
-91% PRT
-63% MAL
0% CZE
-57% MEX
-68% ISR
-93% BEL
-84% SAF
-90% SAU
-76% PER
-61% ITA
-74% ESP
-71% FRA
-51% ROM
-100% VNM
-59% US
-76% COL
-53% JPN
-73% PHL
-96% DEN
-68% PAK
-87% UK
-75% NLD
-91% SWI
-75% TUR
-88% NOR
-79% KOR
-50% NGA
-67% TAI
-100% NZL
-86% SWE
-88% FIN
-100% THA
-2
-3
-4
-5
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Countries shown represent 94% of World GDP. March 11, 2021.
8EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Co r o n a v ir u s
The first two charts below show peak and current levels of infection (first chart) and mortality (second chart)
for the 50 US states and DC. The third chart shows current levels of hospitalization by state.
Infection levels for US states: peak vs current Peak infection rate per mm
Sorted by trailing 7 day average infection rate per mm people
Latest infection rate per mm
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
MI
MA
SC
PA
VT
MN
SD
MS
VA
WV
MD
ME
MT
MO
WI
FL
TN
GA
WY
WA
TX
OK
RI
CT
AK
AZ
KY
OH
OR
LA
NJ
NY
DE
DC
CO
NH
UT
ID
NC
IA
NE
HI
IL
NV
AL
IN
AR
NM
KS
ND
CA
-200
-45%
-57%
-75%
-65%
-51%
-76%
-79%
-74%
-77%
-77%
-81%
-86%
-33%
-82%
-87%
-79%
-80%
-89%
-81%
-86%
-74%
-85%
-83%
-80%
-81%
-86%
-79%
-90%
-83%
-83%
-89%
-75%
-72%
-88%
-87%
-86%
-86%
-88%
-90%
-89%
-92%
-93%
-88%
-87%
-90%
-95%
-92%
-92%
-81%
-82%
-78%
-400
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. March 11, 2021
Mortality levels for US states: peak vs current Peak mortality rate per mm
Sorted by trailing 7 day average mortality rate per mm people
Latest mortality rate per mm
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-81% MA
-56% MN
-72% MS
-73% ME
-82% MD
-87% MT
-87% MI
-64% VA
-78% SC
-69% MO
-83% PA
-86% WV
-88% WY
-84% WI
-95% SD
-80% VT
-78% WA
-46% OK
-62% GA
-86% OH
-84% OR
-48% TX
-69% LA
-50% FL
-85% RI
-87% TN
-91% HI
-43% DE
-57% AR
-75% AZ
-80% AL
-56% CA
-43% KY
-87% NJ
-70% NM
-91% NY
-88% IA
-76% NV
-69% NC
-81% IN
-82% NE
-84% DC
-91% CT
-87% KS
-83% IL
-79% ID
-59% UT
-86% NH
-95% ND
-93% CO
-94% AK
-2
-4
-6
Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. March 11, 2021
Current hospitalization levels for US states
Sorted by trailing 7 day average current hospitalizations per mm people
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
MI
MD
MO
MS
PA
WV
VA
SC
MA
ME
MT
SD
WI
MN
VT
WA
WY
GA
OK
TX
FL
LA
TN
OH
OR
DC
NY
NJ
RI
AR
KY
DE
AZ
NV
AL
CT
NC
CA
IL
ND
IN
KS
NM
NE
ID
CO
NH
UT
HI
IA
AK
Source: HHS, IMF, JPMAM. March 11, 2021
9EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Co r o n a v ir u s
US at a glance: infection, hospitalization and mortality tracking
The charts below track infection, hospitalization, testing 2 and mortality data for the US in aggregate. See section
3 for a state-by-state chartpack which covers the full range of infection, hospitalizations and mortality.
US Positive testing rate
300,000 4,000 Daily infections, % of total tests, smoothing = 7 days
20.0%
Daily infections levels (LHS)
3,500 18.0%
250,000
Current hospitalizations levels (LHS) 16.0% US testing states
3,000
200,000 Daily deaths levels (RHS) 14.0%
2,500
12.0%
150,000 2,000 10.0%
1,500 8.0%
100,000
6.0%
1,000
50,000 4.0%
500 2.0%
0 0 0.0%
02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21 02/20 05/20 08/20 11/20 03/21
Source: JHU, IMF, HHS, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021. Source: Johns Hopkins University, JPMAM. Mar 11, 2021.
Percentage of ICU patients in hospitals with ICU capacity rates above 90%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
TX
TN
WA
LA
FL
WV
IA
ID
IN
IL
WI
AL
AK
KS
KY
AR
VA
PA
AZ
SC
WY
NV
CA
CO
DE
NM
RI
HI
NC
DC
NE
ND
NY
CT
NJ
SD
VT
OK
MS
MO
GA
MN
MA
MI
OR
OH
NH
UT
MD
MT
ME
Source: HHS, JPMAM. February 26, 2021.
2
40 states report the total number of “testing encounters” or “testing specimens”; the rest only show the number of people
testing each day that have never been tested before. We only compute testing rates for the 40 states that provide
encounter or specimen data since “first time tested” is an inaccurate denominator to use with reported infections.
10EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Co r o n a v ir u s
How lethal is COVID, and for whom?
Let’s first compare it to the flu. A key issue to keep in mind: there’s a difference between case fatality rates
(deaths as a % of reported cases) and infection fatality rates (deaths as a % of all infected people, whether
symptomatic or not). The latter can only be derived through antibody testing and other sampling methods
involving molecular assessments of infection. The IFR of the seasonal flu is reported to be well below 0.1% with
other estimates ranging from 0.02% to 0.04%. In contrast, the IFR for COVID has been estimated at 0.23% by
Stanford’s Metaresearch Innovation Center, and at 0.7%-0.9% by the CDC. Either way, COVID is significantly
more lethal than the seasonal flu. Tracking “excess” abnormal death levels is another way to understand the
incremental mortality impact of COVID (see second chart). In addition to higher mortality than the flu, COVID
also appears to entail more longer-lasting medical complications (see web portal section 5).
Flu vs COVID-19 infection fatality rates Imperial Tracking excess deaths from COVID
%, estimated infection fatality rate College London Total deaths per week
1.2% (global) 90,000
Actual deaths from all causes
CDC US
1.0% Seroprevalence 80,000 Threshold for excess deaths
University of Survey
0.8% Wollongong
(global) 70,000
CDC US
0.6%
Stanford Pandemic
Meta-Research 60,000
Planning
0.4% Innovation Center Scenario
(global) 50,000
0.2%
WHO Oxford CDC
0.0% 40,000
Seasonal influenza COVID-19 01/2017 01/2018 01/2019 01/2020 01/2021
Source: CDC, WHO, Stanford, Oxford, Imperial College London, University of Source: CDC, JHU, JPMAM. March 6, 2021. Dots are estimated using most
Wollongong. 2020. recent JHU data.
Mortality by age in the US
The first section in the table below shows the distribution of US COVID deaths by age bracket. People over the
age of 85 represent around 1/3 of all COVID fatalities to-date. However, the number of people over age 85 is
much smaller than other age cohorts; as a result, fatality risks are much greater for people in this age group.
The second section reflects this by showing deaths to date per mm people in each age bracket (you can divide
one number by another to obtain relative mortality probabilities). The third section looks specifically at
mortality risk across age brackets relative to older populations. For example, a person aged 55-64 is only around
11% as likely to die from COVID compared to someone over the age of 75, and only around 6% as likely to die
as someone over the age of 85. Differences across states are generally minor.
DISTRIBUTION OF ACTUAL MORTALITY: Mortality to-date by age group, % of total mortality
< 1 yr 1-4 yrs 5-14 yrs 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 65-74 yrs 75-84 yrs > 85
United States 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.7% 4.7% 11.9% 21.7% 27.9% 31.4%
MORTALITY RATES FOR EACH AGE BRACKET: COVID deaths to-date per mm population in each age group
< 1 yr 1-4 yrs 5-14 yrs 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 65-74 yrs 75-84 yrs > 85
United States 12 2 2 17 69 200 563 1,383 3,405 8,631 23,494
RELATIVE MORTALITY RISK: risk of dying across age brackets
< 1 yr 1-4 yrs 5-14 yrs 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 65-74 yrs 75-84 yrs > 85
Relative to 85+ 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 2.4% 5.9% 14.5% 36.7% 100.0%
Relative to 75+ 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.5% 4.4% 10.7% 26.3% 100.0%
Source: CDC, JPMAM. February 27, 2021.
11EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN Co r o n a v ir u s
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