The Evolving World of Bitcoin - Julia C. Wirts, CFA Managing Director, Portfolio Manager - Fiduciary Trust International
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February 2021
The Evolving World of Bitcoin
Julia C. Wirts, CFA
Managing Director, Portfolio ManagerBitcoin has staged an extraordinary resurgence in recent months, crossing $40,000 for the first
time ever in early January 2021. Today’s buyers, which includes prominent US corporations and
high-net-worth investors, have turned to Bitcoin as a hedge to inflation and return enhancer in
response to unprecedented central bank stimulus during the pandemic and historically low interest
rates. Also driving the rally over the past year has been a stronger appetite for risk assets following
progress on COVID-19 vaccines and the removal of election uncertainty. Expectations that Bitcoin
might gain broader acceptance as a digital currency due to its adoption on widely used payment
apps has intensified demand as well. Finally, government agencies and the private sector have
taken steps to establish firmer guidelines around the treatment of cryptocurrencies, leading to
greater interest from hedge funds, endowments and other institutional investors.
Nonetheless, it appears that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of development and public oversight
remains spotty, making comprehensive data on the sector difficult to come by to help determine
Bitcoin’s potential value to investors. Further, Bitcoin’s price volatility and regulatory uncertainty
could lessen its future appeal to more mainstream businesses and investors.
FIGURE 1 BITCOIN’S PRICE SINCE 2016
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg, as of 1/7/2021.
1
Source: Bloomberg, as of 1/2/2021.
1 THE EVOLVING WORLD OF BITCOIN fiduciarytrust.comThe Mechanics of Bitcoin
It is believed that Bitcoin was first conceived in the aftermath of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) as an
alternative medium of exchange and store of value. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin can be transferred directly from
one owner to another through a financial ledger called “blockchain.” This ledger is maintained by a global network
of individuals and entities that expend incredible amounts of computer energy to verify transactions and are
“rewarded” with virtual currency, an activity otherwise known as “mining.” Bitcoin is referred to as a cryptocurrency
because sophisticated encryption techniques are used to regulate the creation of new units and make online
transactions safe and secure. Further, the blockchain does not rely on traditional intermediaries such as banks
or brokerage firms. The goal is to provide a peer-to-peer medium of exchange that allows buyers and sellers to
remain anonymous. It is decentralized, “incorruptible” and transparent. Every transaction is shared with the entire
network of Bitcoin users, allowing participants to maintain a running total of each transaction so that the same unit
of currency is never used more than once.
Proponents of Bitcoin think this ability to easily transfer value from person to person globally will ultimately lead to
an increase in its usage. Alternatively, ambiguity around regulation could discourage businesses from accepting
digital currencies. No law requires companies or individuals to accept Bitcoin as a form of payment. Instead, its
use is limited to businesses and individuals that are willing to accept Bitcoins.
Unlike traditional currencies, Bitcoin is not issued or regulated by a governmental agency. Rather, it is created by
a computer program and traded on the web through online exchanges such as Coinbase, which typically hold it
for buyers in a “virtual wallet.”2 Users are not required to provide a social security number, but instead are identified
by a web address linking them to transactions.
The open and deregulated nature of the system initially raised concerns that Bitcoin might be used to fund illicit
activities like terrorism or drug trafficking. One of the best-known examples was the so-called Silk Road market,
a section of the “dark web” where drugs were sold until it was shut down by the FBI in October 2013. In fact,
according to a recent report, in 2020, the criminal share of all cryptocurrency activity was only 0.34%, a drop
from 2019’s 2.1%.3 Most US sanctioned Bitcoin platforms now require photo identification and other personal
information to authenticate users, making it harder for illegal activity to occur.4
A Store of Value
The founders of Bitcoin set a limit on the number of coins (21 million) that could be mined, and there are
currently 18.5 million in circulation worldwide. This capped supply is one of Bitcoin’s most well-known features
and was intended to act as a hedge against inflation caused by central banks printing excessive amounts of
money. Bitcoin was also devised to be harder to mine as the blockchain neared its maximum circulation level.
For example, in May 2020, the total coins awarded to miners was cut in half, and it’s expected to take 120 years
to obtain the remaining 2.5 million coins. While the perceived scarcity of an asset doesn’t automatically award
value to it, the idea that there will be fewer opportunities to mine or earn it has been cited as a reason demand
has returned this year.5
Bolstering its reputation as a store of value have been recent endorsements from US companies, high-profile
investors and hedge funds. Some market pundits have suggested that the cryptocurrency could take the place
2
ypically take the form of a thumb drive, computer software or cellphone, hold the private keys necessary to access the blockchain and buy, sell and
T
trade bitcoin with others.
3
ource: Chainalysis, “ 2021 Crypto Crime Report”, 1/19/2021. (https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2021-crypto-crime-report-intro-ransomware-
S
scams-darknet-markets)
4
Source: Bloomberg, “FBI Snags Silk Road Boss With Own Methods” Greg Farrell, 10/04/2013.
5
Source: CoinDesk, “Bitcoin Halving, Explained” Alyssa Hertig, 12/17/2020.
2 THE EVOLVING WORLD OF BITCOIN fiduciarytrust.comof gold due to its greater functionality, such as limited supply, and that it may become a global market asset.6 As
one example of its potential growing transactional use, the widely used mobile payment company Square, Inc.
bought $50 million in Bitcoin during the third quarter of 2020.7 Also, as of December 31, 2020, publicly traded
firms held a combined $30 billion in Bitcoin as part of their reserve assets.8
While Bitcoin has rallied alongside gold, silver and other assets understood to be hedges to inflation, its unpredictable
nature and history of sharp drawdowns have raised doubts about its suitability as a digital currency or store of
value. To start, Bitcoin has only been around for about 12 years and has no record as a wide-scale asset class.
Unlike traditional fiat currencies, the price of a Bitcoin is determined by the supply and demand on the exchanges
where it trades rather than such factors as central bank monetary policy, inflation or foreign currency exchange
rates. In the US for example, the dollar is backed by the full faith and credit of the government, offering additional
support for the investment.
Due to its fixed supply, the Bitcoin market remains relatively small, which has contributed to its dramatic swings in
price. Bitcoin has acted more like a speculative risk asset the past year, moving higher on positive investor sentiment
and its perceived scarcity value rather than on conventional financial metrics like earnings strength or attractive
price multiples. While not available today, an ETF has the potential to provide a new, almost unlimited stream
of capital to fuel demand for Bitcoin. Given its inelastic supply, this raises the risk of another market bubble and
elevated price volatility.
Lastly, inflation may simply fail to take off irrespective of central bank actions, diminishing Bitcoin’s proposed merit
as a store of value. Important to note, Bitcoin has shown little correlation with gold (a traditional bulwark against
inflation) in recent months and has outperformed other hedges.9
FIGURE 2 BITCOIN PERFORMANCE VERSUS INFLATION HEDGE ASSETS
600
Bitcoin to US dollar
Gold
500 Silver
Bloomberg Bardays US Enhanced nflation Index
Commodity Channel Index
400
300
200
100
0
1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21
Source: Bloomberg. Price performance as of 1/7/2021. Indexed to 100 as of 1/1/2020.
6
Source: CNN, “Bitcoin soars again after BlackRock says it could replace gold” Paul R. La Monica, 11/20/2020.
7
Source: Square press release, "Square, Inc, Invests $50 Million in Bitcoin”, 10/8/2020.
8
Source: TokenPost, “$30B in Bitcoin (BTC) being held as a reserve asset by 29 companies” 12/30/2020.
9
Source: JP. Morgan, “Flows & Liquidity. Bitcoin’s Competition with Gold.” N. Panigirtzoglou, M. Inkinen, N. Poddar, CFA, 10/23/2020.
3 THE EVOLVING WORLD OF BITCOIN fiduciarytrust.comFIGURE 3 BITCOIN CORRELATION WITH OTHER ASSETS
Bitcoin 90-day Correlation Ending 1/15/2021
$45000 0.6%
Bitcoin Price (LHS) Gold (RHS)
S&P 500 (RHS) Dollar (RHS)
$40000
0.4%
$35000
$30000 0.2%
$25000
0%
$20000
$15000 -0.2%
$10000
-0.4%
$5000
$0 -0.6%
7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 1/21
Source: Bloomberg, as of 1/15/2021.
Validation by Institutional Investors
Companies active in the crypto industry argue that Bitcoin has matured since its last run, pointing to a tighter
regulatory environment and new interest from mainstream investors. The Bitcoin market in 2017 was driven by
trading on exchanges in east Asia,10 as well as initial coin offerings, startups that created and sold their own digital
currencies as a funding source for their business ventures. This activity raised over $4 billion before the Security
Exchange Commission (SEC) cracked down in 2018, finding that most of the proceeds were used to buy more
Bitcoin instead of invested in growing the business.11
Today, Bitcoin has been boosted in part by large institutional investors, attracted by the predictability and safety
that a more regulated venue offers. For example, those holding at least 1,000 Bitcoins in their wallets collectively
bought half a million coins worth roughly $11.5 billion from September through the end of December 2020.12
According to Bloomberg, Yale University, which controls one of the biggest college endowments in the US,
has started to buy cryptocurrency,13 while a major life insurance company bought $100 million in Bitcoins last
December.14 It is clear from developments like this that adoption is spreading from family offices and corporate
accounts to institutions. This distinction is important as organizations like foundations, endowments and
pension funds are typically run by boards and teams of lawyers that carefully review each new investment.
Such a vetting process may bolster the case for Bitcoin.15
10
Source: Reuters, “How American investors are gobbling up booming bitcoin”, Tom Wilson, Alun John 12/3/2020.
11
Source: The Security and Exchange, “SEC Halts Fraudulent Scheme Involving Unregistered ICO” 04/02/2018.
12
Source: The Wall Street Journal, “Bitcoin’s Rally Has Already Outlasted 2017’s Epic Run” Paul Vigna, 12/24/2020.
13
Source: Bloomberg, “Harvard and Yale Endowments Among Those Reportedly Buying Crypto”, Joanna Ossinger, 1/25/2021
14
Source: MassMutual Press Release, “Institutional Bitcoin provider NYDIG announces minority stake purchase by MassMutual” 12/10/2020.
15
Source: Bloomberg, “JPMorgan Says MassMutual’s Bitcoin Foray Signals Widening Demand” Joanna Ossinger, 12/14/2020.
4 THE EVOLVING WORLD OF BITCOIN fiduciarytrust.comEnhanced Regulatory Oversight
US policy makers and regulators have sought to make the industry safer and more accessible for investors by
holding it to the same standards associated with traditional asset classes. For instance, the Internal Revenue Service
officially declared cryptocurrency a “property” in 2017, with any realized gains taxed like a stock.16 Popular crypto
exchanges like Gemini and Coinbase have agreed to be governed by the New York State Department of Financial
Services, which requires users to provide identifying information. In 2020, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
(OCC) granted approval for all OCC-regulated banks to hold cryptocurrencies on behalf of their customers. Financial
advisors now have access to a growing roster of regulated exchanges and custodians when buying, selling and
holding Bitcoin for clients. Most recently, the US Department of the Treasury unveiled a plan to curb the anonymous
transfer of assets by criminals via unregulated wallets. The proposal would require banks and exchanges to keep
records of customer transactions exceeding $3,000 and the identities of all parties involved. Finally, Coinbase
announced that it had filed for an IPO with the SEC in December, moving the crypto exchange further into the
mainstream, with all the rules and regulations that come with it.17
Enduring Price Volatility
Despite Bitcoin’s increasingly regulated status, its price performance has remained volatile in the time since 2017.
For example, Bitcoin traded at $10,542 to start December 2017, climbing to $19,783 just eighteen days later before
losing 80% of its value in 2018.18 More recently, Bitcoin hit a record high of $42,000 on January 11, 2021, only to
tumble over 30% later in the month, in part due to fears of increased regulation and that its price had risen too
far too fast. At a US Senate hearing in January, Secretary of the Treasury (then nominee) Janet Yellen expressed
concerns that cryptos could be used to finance illegal activities, while European Central Bank President Christine
Lagarde called for more global oversight. As the industry evolves to include more sophisticated investors and products,
Bitcoin’s performance may be determined to a greater extent by traditional fundamentals and metrics, reducing its
overall volatility. But for now, its price is primarily a function of supply and demand and the sentiments of its traders.
FIGURE 4 BITCOIN’S HISTORICAL VOLATILITY
10-day Trailing Volatility (%) for Period Ending 1/7/2021
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1/16 5/16 9/16 1/17 5/17 9/17 1/18 5/18 9/18 1/19 5/19 9/19 1/20 5/20 9/20 12/20
Source: Bloomberg, as of 01/07/2021.
16
Source: Internal Revenue Service, “Virtual Currencies” https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/virtual-currencies
17
ource: Wall Street Journal, “Coinbase’s Crypto Conundrum” Andrew Ross Sorkin, Jason Karaian, Michael J. de la Merced, Lauren Hirsch and
S
Ephrat Livni, 12/18/2020.
18
Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/17/2017. 80% loss represents the period from December 17, 2017 to November 26, 2018.
5 THE EVOLVING WORLD OF BITCOIN fiduciarytrust.comThe Investable Universe of Bitcoin
Demand for alternative assets jumped following the GFC in response to a steep drawdown in the equity markets
and historically low yields on fixed income securities. Institutional and high-net-worth investors found themselves
searching for new ways to mitigate systematic risk and meet annual return targets. In a world where benchmark
interest rates are near, at, or below 0%, the opportunity cost of not allocating to Bitcoin may be higher. The industry
appears to have reached a point where it can accommodate a reasonable amount of capital and offer the
infrastructure necessary for qualified investors, with companies creating everything from index funds to options
markets and custody services.
Derivatives, such as futures and options contracts remain the preferred option for large investors, many of whom
are hesitant to buy Bitcoin directly for fear of overly influencing the market or mismanaging the wallets that store
the coins. Daily volumes for Bitcoin options on US exchanges hit $1 billion last December, with much of the
activity occurring on the derivatives platform Deribit.19 On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Bitcoin futures and
options grew 117% year over year as of the end of December 2020.20
Although the SEC has yet to approve an exchange traded fund (ETF), other fund options are now available.
Bitfury, a Bitcoin mining company, started an institutional investor program for family offices in May 2020, providing
an entry point outside of the derivatives market.21 The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the largest publicly traded crypto
fund, has $17 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of January 1, 2021, while total AUM at the firm is
$20 billion.22 In December, Bitwise Asset Management debuted its Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund, the first publicly
traded index fund, which tracks the l0 biggest cryptocurrencies by market cap including Bitcoin (75%).23 In total,
cryptocurrency funds attracted over $15 billion in 2020 versus $2.57 billion in 2019.24 In addition, institutional
and ultra-high-net-worth investors can access Bitcoin through a limited partnership structure, such as the Wise
Origin Bitcoin Index Fund I LP. The fund tracks the performance of the Fidelity Bitcoin Index through passive,
direct ownership of Bitcoin.
Finally, recognizing the need for reliable and user-friendly benchmarks and pricing data, the S&P Dow Jones
Indices plans to launch two products in early 2021 that will cover more than 550 cryptocurrencies.25
The Rise of the Retail Trade
While the price of Bitcoin has been sustained in part by the support of institutional investors, demand has also
come from the retail sector, aided by the global shift to ecommerce and the use of mobile devices to transfer
money and purchase goods and services online. For instance, during 2020 we saw over 38 million transfers of
Bitcoin worth less than $1000 into personal wallets, almost double the number in 2017.26 In the banking system,
a customer’s financial information moves from the retailer to the merchant processor27, to a payment network and
then finally to the bank that settles the transaction. Given the risk of identity fraud, theft and hack, cryptocurrency
has enabled users to move funds relatively quickly and safely without the need for multiple intermediaries.
19
Source: Bitcoin.com, “Bitcoin Options Daily Volume Crosses $1 Billion, $100K Strike Introduced for 2021” Jamie Redman, 12/18/2020.
20
Source PRNewswire, “CME Group Reports 2020 Annual, Q4 and Monthly Market Statistics” CME Group, 01/05/2021.
21
Source: Yahoo!Finance, “Bitfury announces institutional investor program for mining farms” Aislinn Keely, 05/26/2020.
22
Source: Grayscale, Company Website.
23
Source: Bitwise, Asset Management Company Website.
24
Source: CoinDesk, “Blockchain Bites: Square’s Green Bitcoin Pledge, $15B AUM in Crypto Funds” Daniel Kuhn, 12/08/2020.
25
Source: CoinDesk, “S&P, State Street Back $15M Investment in Crypto Data Startup Lukka” Danny Nelson, 12/10/2020.
26
Source: The Wall Street Journal, “Bitcoin’s Rally Has Already Outlasted 2017’s Epic Run” Paul Vigna, 12/24/2020.
27
erchant processing refers to the ability of a merchant to accept a transaction payment through a secure channel. For those merchants who operate
M
online, a virtual payment terminal is an ideal solution to allow the acceptance of new payment channels such as credit and debit cards.
6 THE EVOLVING WORLD OF BITCOIN fiduciarytrust.comAt the same time, we have seen a rise in retail trading during the pandemic, aided by the arrival of low-cost and
easy-to-use brokerage platforms. Payment apps have also made buying, selling and holding assets, including
cryptocurrency, much simpler. This market demographic tends to be younger, with a significant amount of their
financial information gleaned from social media channels. We expect some attention will ultimately flow to Bitcoin
due to recent celebrity endorsements.28
As an early backer of cryptocurrencies, Square’s Cash App has permitted its members to trade and store Bitcoin
since 2018, essentially acting as both an exchange and custodial wallet. As of November 2020, account holders
held approximately $1.8 billion in Bitcoin, an increase of 180% from the previous year.29 PayPal recently announced
that it will accept Bitcoin as a payment at 26 million merchant sites starting in 2021. The company also secured
the first conditional cryptocurrency license from the New York State Department of Financial Services, enabling
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to be traded on its site. Users will be able to convert their currencies to US dollars
with no incremental fees.
With close to 350 million active accounts on PayPal, Bitcoin has the opportunity to further expand its reach.30
Additionally, given healthy demand from hedge funds and other institutional investors, supply is likely to become
even more constrained, potentially leading to higher price upside. In another development, cryptocurrency is now
accepted by Visa Inc., which launched a credit card in 2020 that offers rewards in Bitcoin rather than airline miles
or cash.31
The Next Chapter for Bitcoin
Bitcoin soared over 300% in 202032 as investors sought both risk assets and inflation hedges in response to
aggressive monetary and fiscal policies worldwide. In many ways, Bitcoin’s performance has been fundamentally
different than its rise and fall three years ago, as buyers now range from retail traders and US corporations to
endowments and the ultra-wealthy. Supporters of Bitcoin cite a more stable backdrop for investors as a result
of enhanced oversight, the establishment of regulated products and custody services and a surge in institutional
interest. However, we would be hesitant to call it a structural shift in the industry, especially during a year of acute
financial disruption.
At the moment, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin appear to lack the stability, transparency and safeguards of more
traditional asset classes. Trading remains highly opaque and regulation uneven, making it difficult to reach a
conclusion on the potential risks and rewards of Bitcoin. Further, banks and other financial institutions continue to
grapple with a number of regulatory and legal hurdles that may hinder Bitcoin’s path to legitimacy. These obstacles
include the custodial prerequisites if assets are held on a blockchain network, fulfilling anti-money laundering
obligations, protecting against cyber threats and appropriately evaluating counterparty risk. As the industry
evolves, clients may have more resources at hand to determine if Bitcoin makes sense for their portfolios. For
now, the investment landscape is apt to transform considerably, yielding far too many risks for an investor today.
28
Source: CNBC, “Big investors new to cryptocurrencies appear to be behind bitcoin’s rally to a record” Kate Rooney, 12/18/2020.
29
Source: New York Times, "Bitcoin Hits New Record, This Time With Less Talk of a Bubble” Nathaniel Popper, 11/30/2020.
30
Source: PayPal, Company Website.
31
Source: CNBC, “With bitcoin near all-time high, this is where Visa’s CEO sees crypto going” Eric Rosenbaum, 11/20/2020.
32
Source: Bloomberg 2020 XBT-USD Price Data.
7 THE EVOLVING WORLD OF BITCOIN fiduciarytrust.comACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The author would like to acknowledge the contributions of Jon Heckscher, Managing Director, Director
of Fixed Income and Chief Investment Officer Pennsylvania Region, to this white paper.
8 THE EVOLVING WORLD OF BITCOIN fiduciarytrust.comBiographies
Julia C. Wirts, CFA,
Managing Director and Portfolio Manager
Julia is responsible for providing investment research, thought leadership and
portfolio management for clients. Before joining Fiduciary Trust, Julia worked with
ultra-high net worth individuals and families as an Investment Advisor at Hawthorn,
PNC Family Wealth. She has spent her career creating customized portfolios for
sophisticated relationships, performing fundamental equity research and developing
thought leadership papers on topical investment themes. She has an extensive
background in Responsible Investing (RI) and played a large role in building out
Hawthorn’s RI platform. In addition, she worked for Philadelphia International
Advisors and The Pew Charitable Trusts. Julia earned the Chartered Financial
Analyst® (CFA) designation and is a member of the CFA Society of Philadelphia.
She is involved in various local organizations including the National Society of the
Colonial Dames of America, the 1874 Society for the Morris Animal Refuge and the
Acorn Club of Philadelphia where she serves on the Investment Committee that
oversees the club’s endowment. Julia received her undergraduate degree from
Trinity College and her Masters in Public Affairs from the University of Pennsylvania.
9 THE EVOLVING WORLD OF BITCOIN fiduciarytrust.comGROWING AND PROTECTING WEALTH FOR GENERATIONS
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protecting your wealth through generations. We work closely with individuals, families and foundations to build and manage personalized
investment portfolios, and to develop estate plans that extend wealth to future generations.
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