The New Normal Predicting climate impacts and building resilient communities
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The New Normal
Predicting climate impacts and
building resilient communities
join us:
Acknowledgements
The primary funding for this work was generously provided by the Joyce Foundation. Additional support
for Clean Wisconsin’s climate program work is provided by the Garfield Foundation.
Lead Author: Katy Walter, Clean Energy Specialist, Clean Wisconsin
Several Clean Wisconsin staffers assisted with this report. Special thanks to:
Keith Reopelle, Senior Policy Director
Amanda Wegner, Creative Director
Tyson Cook, Staff Scientist
Sam Weis, Communications Director
About Clean Wisconsin
Clean Wisconsin is an environmental advocacy organization that works to protect Wisconsin’s clean water
and air and advocates for clean energy by being an effective voice in the state legislature and by holding elect-
ed officials and polluters accountable. Clean Wisconsin was founded in 1970 as Wisconsin’s Environmental
Decade and is the state’s largest environmental advocacy organization.
page 2 The New Normal
Preparing for the New Normal
Unprecedented warm spring temperatures interrupt on many facets of life in Wisconsin. Agriculture and
Wisconsin’s annual spring maple syrup harvest, leaving outdoor recreation, two prime areas susceptible to a
the industry hurting from a 68% decline in production. changing climate, are critical to our way of life and key
Cherry farmers from Door County and apple farmers pillars of our economy. Unfortunately, we are already
in Bayfield watch helplessly as their fruit trees blos- beginning to see major impacts in these areas. Wiscon-
som early, only to be destroyed by frost. In the midst of sin is experiencing the sharpest increase in severe rain1
one of the worst droughts in memory, corn farmers in and is among the states that are warming at the fastest
southern Wisconsin hope for rain to save their crops, rate2; Climate Central ranked Wisconsin No. 1 overall
as over 6 inches of rain falls on Northern Wisconsin, for record-breaking heat in 2012.3 Going forward, we
flooding UW-Superior buildings and causing over $8.5 will continue to be one of the most affected states.
million in damage. Overall, WICCI’s modeling estimates with 90% confi-
From crop losses for farmers to high prices at gro- dence that Wisconsin may see temperatures rise by 4°F
cery stores for our families, flooded basements to dead, to 9°F by 2050. This change will have significant impacts
dried-up lawns, residents across Wisconsin were deeply throughout the state, with, for example, twice as many
impacted by 2012’s extreme weather. 90˚F days a year by 2050.4 Overall precipitation patterns
While we wait to tally the final costs of this year’s are likely to change as well, paradoxically including
extreme weather, we’re left with a lingering question:
is this year’s extreme weather merely an anomaly, or is
it a “new normal” that is the result of climate change?
Climate change promises to
It is a difficult, yet important question to answer. Luck- have a dramatic impact on many
ily, we have a much clearer picture of our future climate facets of life in Wisconsin.
in Wisconsin thanks to cutting-edge research from top
climate scientists at the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate more droughts and flooding as dry conditions are bro-
Change Impacts (WICCI), a partnership between the ken up by more severe rain events.
Nelson Institute at University of Wisconsin Madison
and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. However, predicting future weather patterns does
This valuable research can help us predict, and thereby little on its own. In recognition of this fact, this report
better prepare for, climate changes. explores ways that Wisconsin residents, businesses, and
industries can limit the impacts of climate change. Each
It is impossible to point to any one weather event and section of this report includes an example of an effort
say it is the result of climate change; however, growing that will better prepare our state. For instance, stories
certainty and understanding in the field of climate sci- like Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District’s
ence enable us to better predict weather patterns we can stormwater upgrades demonstrate that preparing for
expect to see change. This report aims to use the best an uncertain future can also make our communities
science available to connect some of the dots between better, more resilient places to live. With such major
what we’re experiencing today and what we will likely changes expected, it is important to take stock of what
experience in the future. the future may hold and begin to prepare our farms,
Climate change promises to have a dramatic impact communities and residents for the “new normal.”
www.cleanwisconsin.org Introduction | page 3
Table of Contents
Introduction: The New Normal 3
Agriculture: Our Most Iconic Industry 5
In the News 5
By the Numbers 7
Building Resilience: Wisconsin’s New Phosphorus Rule 8
Health: Impacting Our Most Vulnerable Populations 9
In the News 9
By the Numbers 11
Building Resilience: Flood Management & Green Infrastructure in Milwaukee 12
Tourism: Predicting Climate Impacts 13
In the News 13
By the Numbers 14
Building Resilience: Trout Stream Restoration in the Driftless area 15
References 17
page 4 The New Normal
Agriculture
Our most iconic industry
In the News For good reason, Wisconsin is known as the Dairy State:
Both our identity and our economy are tied to the iconic agricul-
Maple Syrup harvest down in ture sector. For perspective, it’s worth noting that the dairy industry
2012 due to warm spring in Wisconsin is bigger than Florida’s citrus industry or Idaho’s po-
Wisconsin Ag Connection, 6/19/2012 tato industry. But Wisconsin’s agricultural industry is much more
There’s no sugar coating it: Wisconsin’s diverse. Wisconsin is a national leader in a number of crops, in-
2012 maple syrup season was not very
good this year. State agriculture officials cluding vegetables like carrots, snap beans, ginseng and sweet corn,
say 50,000 gallons of syrup was made grains like oats and corn, and commodities like maple syrup and
this spring, down 68 percent from the
155,000 gallons harvested in 2011. Sug- cucumbers for pickles.
ar content was also off, as it required
This diversity is due, in part, to our varied geography and geol-
44 gallons of sap to make one gallon of
ogy, and in each region a different set of strategies and techniques is
syrup — up from 38 gallons last year...
The maple season began just over a
needed to be successful. This diversity, paired with the hard-work-
week earlier than last year, but also
ing Midwestern spirit, will serve our farmers well as we start to ex-
ended sooner because of the warmer
perience changes to our climate. These changes have the potential
temperatures. This year’s season aver-
aged 10 days, which is 18 days shorter
than last year. 5 to be both positive and negative and will vary for each farm and
crop. Some of these changes, as identified in the 2011 WICCI re-
Tart cherry crop in Midwest
port, “Wisconsin’s Changing Climate,” are discussed here.
destroyed by weather
Associated Press, Dinesh Ramde,
7/13/2012
SISTER BAY, Wis. (AP) — Walk into
Dairy
Cherry Republic’s store in the heart of Like other warm-blooded mammals, there is an ideal temperature range
the nation’s biggest tart cherry produc-
ing region, and you could end up with
for dairy cows where no extra energy is needed for them to maintain their
jam or salsa with fruit that had to be body temperature. For dairy cows, this range is between 32°F and 68°F,8
imported from Poland. with any temperature above that potentially leading to heat stress. Heat
Cherry Republic can’t get enough tart stress can have significant impacts on farm economics, including food in-
cherries from its local orchards because
97 percent of Michigan’s crop was de-
take, milk production, and reproduction and death rates of the dairy cows.
stroyed this year by a freak weather pat- In 2003, a study estimated that dairy cows were in heat stress 9% of the
tern. An unseasonably warm March that time in Wisconsin.8 For operations with few systems in place to provide
caused trees to bud was followed by an
April freeze that killed the blossoms.
Trees in New York and Wisconsin,
which have smaller but still significant
tart cherry harvests, suffered the same
weather damage...6
Crops, people wilt in intense heat
across southern Wisconsin
Isthmus, Nora G. Hertel, 6/28/2012
You don’t need the weatherman or ther-
mometer to tell you, it is hot and dry
in Madison. Since thaws in January, this
year has proved unusually warm. Tem-
peratures may reach 100°F Thursday...
Madison has not seen a June this dry
since 1988, says Chris Kucharik, associ-
ate professor of agronomy and environ-
mental studies at the UW-Madison.7
www.cleanwisconsin.org Agriculture | page 5
SHIFTING HARDINE
temperature control, heat stress led to an annual esti-
mated loss of $72 per cow and 403 pounds of milk per
PLANT HARDINESS ZONES
W
cow.8 As temperatures continue to rise due to climate m
change, this will lead to an increase in heat stress and W
reduced output for dairy cows. C
in
Crops le
Perhaps no other sector of the economy is more sen- c
sitive to climate than cropland. In 2012, record warm th
spring temperatures followed by a late spring frost b
decimated cherry crops, and severe drought conditions 1990 Modern o
pushed much of Wisconsin’s corn crop past the point of te
return. Extreme weather, however, is merely one exam- u
e
ple of what our farmers may face due to climate change;
p
changing conditions could bring new weeds and pests, c
and uncertain weather patterns may threaten the pro- z
ductivity of crops critical to Wisconsin’s economy. th
The effect of a changing climate is evident in the US- o
DA’s newest Plant Hardiness Zone Map (see page 6).
This map, which is based on the average annual lowest 2050 High Emissions 2050 Low Emissions W
h
winter temperature over a 30-year period, helps growers
m
determine what plants will thrive in their areas. Since
ti
1950, Wisconsin’s growing season has been expanding, p
and climate models predict higher temperatures will c
lengthen our growing season even more. With higher a
temperatures shifting plant hardiness zones north, it is b
possible that Wisconsin could grow new fruit crops in c
the future. th
in
Hardiness zones can tell us how growing patterns 2090 High Emissions 2090 Low Emissions
c
are changing, but to better understand how changes p
in our climate will impact agriculture, WICCI scien-
tists took a more detailed look at Wisconsin’s top crops: 3b 4a 4b 5a s
m
corn and soybeans. Using crop yield information and c
climate data to predict future yields, they found a mix m
of possible outcomes. While higher temperatures could a
lower crop yields, increased precipitation may have the
opposite effect on the state’s crops. The bottom line is
5b 6a 6b 7a
that any warming during the core growing season may
negatively impact crop yields.
To the casual observer, it often seems that the only
plants that thrive during drought are weeds; unfortu- Figure 2. Plant hardiness maps.
nately, this is more than just anecdotal. Higher tem- Source: Michael Notaro,
PlantDavid
Hardiness
Lorenz andMaps
Daniel Vimont, Nelson Institute
peratures and changes in precipitation could herald University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Based on high- and low-
new diseases and pests that bring challenges to all our emissions scenarios4
crops. As weeds and pests become more vigorous, the
in turnAgriculture and the Soil Resource
use of herbicides and insecticides may increase,100 Impacts and Vulerabilities
strengthening their resistance to these methods of con-
trol. Going forward, new strategies will likely be need-
ed to protect crops from the threat of pests and weeds.
page 6 The New Normal
More Research Needed
WICCI scientists note that more research is needed
in the area of climate change impacts on agriculture,
in part because it is clear that changes in climate have
already occurred and are having an adverse impact on
this important sector of our economy today.
However, there are a number of options already avail-
able to farmers that will help them adapt to climate
changes, including altering planting dates and planting
new crops. But more extreme climate change scenarios
will require a more systemic approach that goes beyond
the scope of a single farmer.9
Monsanto scientist David Gustafson writes that
While our agricultural systems can adapt while our agricultural systems can adapt to the types
of changes expected through 2050, “Beyond that time,
to expected climate changes through modeling suggests that crop productivity in all regions
2050, “Beyond that time, modeling sug- could begin to be harmed by higher temperatures pre-
dicted for that period … unless successful greenhouse
gests that crop productivity in all regions gas mitigation measures are implemented soon.”10
could begin to be harmed by higher tem-
peratures predicted … unless successful
greenhouse gas mitigation measures are
implemented soon.”
—Monsanto scientist David Gustafson
By the numbers
One in every 10 Wisconsinites works in a job related
to agriculture 11
Corn crop classified as “poor” or “very poor,”
July 201212 43%
Chippewa Valley apple crop loss, 201213 50-60%
2012 maple harvest loss, from 201114 68%
Estimated cherry crop loss, 201215 94%
www.cleanwisconsin.org Agriculture | page 7
Wisconsin’s Phosphorus Rule includes an innovative
new tool linking farmers with incentives to implement
soil conservation practices; in addition, it has the add-
ed benefit of protecting against the growing threat of
climate change. Designed to clean up dangerous and
smelly algae blooms in our waters, provisions in this
rule allow farmers to participate in efforts to improve
their watersheds and protect their fields from costly
soil erosion.
Soil erosion is a significant problem for farmers, as
the top layer of soil is the most supportive of plant
growth. Just a small number of precipitation events
each year causes most of the soil erosion on cropland in
Wisconsin and leads to runoff pollution in our water-
ways. Instead of being absorbed by crops, intense rains
can send nutrients like phosphorus into our rivers and
lakes, causing algae blooms. Without appropriate adap-
tation measures, WICCI scientists predict that climate
change and other complicating factors could cause soil
erosion to double by 2050 (from 1990 rates).
Enter the Phosphorus Rule. Unlike other pollut-
Water-quality ants regulated under the Clean Water Act, phospho-
sampling in a rus pollution largely comes from nonpoint sources,
phosphorus- like farm field runoff and urban lawns, which makes
plagued,
algae-filled this a challenging problem. A provision in Wisconsin’s
lake. new phosphorus rule, called the Watershed Adaptive
Managment Option, allows point sources like storm-
water treatment facilities and factories to work with
landowners and farmers to achieve significant pollu-
PHOTO: Chetek Lakes Protection Association tion reduction at a much lower cost. Not only do point
sources avoid expensive technologies that cost tens of
Building resilience
millions of dollars, but landowners receive financial as-
sistance to reduce soil erosion and runoff pollution.
Beyond preventing the loss of valuable nutrients, soil
Wisconsin’s Phosphorus Rule conservation practices like no-tillage farming can ben-
efit farmers in other ways as well. No-tillage farming
reduces labor, irrigation and fuel costs. Crop rotation
keeps fields in constant production and can slow the
“ Wisconsin’s new
Phosphorus Rule could
prove to be a useful tool
spread of diseases and pests.
Intense rain events as well as periods of drought are
projected to increase by mid-century; combined, these
conditions would put more land at risk for erosion.
WICCI scientists recommend better implementation
not only for cleaning our of existing soil conservation practices in order to help
waters, but also for pro- farmers prepare for these threats. In addition, soil con-
servation has enormous potential to sequester carbon
tecting the state’s valuable
”
and slow the rate of climate change. Wisconsin’s new
and productive farmlands. Phosphorus Rule could prove to be a useful tool not
only for cleaning our waters, but also for protecting the
state’s valuable and productive farmlands.
page 8 The New Normal
Health
Impacting our most vulnerable populations
In the News With long stretches of days over 90 degrees, the weather of
summer 2012 makes it easy for Wisconsinites to imagine what our
Wisconsin braces for heat wave, future might look like under climate change. But apart from being
20 counties under heat advisory sticky and uncomfortable, higher temperatures are dangerous and
WSAW CBS 7, Wausau, 6/27/2012 pose a significant threat to Wisconsin resident. While the potential
The National Weather Service has is- impacts are still being explored, we know that climate change is a
sued a heat advisory for 20 southern
Wisconsin counties including; Mar- significant public health problem that affects our vulnerable popu-
quette, Green Lake, Fond du Lac, lations the most.
Sheboygan, Sauk, Columbia, Dodge,
Washington, Ozaukee, Iowa, Dane,
Jefferson, Waukesha, Milwaukee, La-
fayette, Green, Rock, Walworth, Racine
Heat waves
and Kenosha.16 Contrary to our reputation as the “Frozen Tundra,” Wisconsin summers
are quite hot and often include dangerous heat waves. In the United States,
Historic heat wave claims more
heat waves have been become longer, more prevalent and more intense
victims
State Journal,Gayle Worland and over the last 40 years,20 and increasing temperatures will only make this
Nico Savidge, 7/7/2012 worse. Scientists predict that Wisconsin could see more than twice as many
Blistering triple-digit temperatures that 90-degree days a year by 2050.4
beat down on southern Wisconsin for
the third day in a row Friday claimed
Heat waves are most dangerous for the elderly and younger populations,
the lives of two people in the La Crosse who are more susceptible to heat illnesses like heat stroke. In Wisconsin,
area and sent dozens to hospitals and there were 116 heat-related deaths from 1982-2008, with a large portion
clinics in the Madison area with heat-
related illnesses.17
occurring in Milwaukee County.22 Cities are more vulnerable than rural
areas to the “heat island effect,” where cities are hotter because impervious
State: Warm spring means more surfaces like buildings and pavement store and radiate heat.
tick activity
Associated Press, 5/5/2010
The state Department of Health Ser-
vices is warning Wisconsin about Lyme
disease after a warm spring triggered
more deer tick activity than usual.18
Ozone advisory for Milwaukee,
Ozaukee counties
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 6/28/20102
The Department of Natural Resources
issued an ozone advisory for Milwau-
kee, Ozaukee, Racine and six other
counties until 1 a.m. Friday.
This is the second consecutive day that
state officials have issued an air pollu-
tion notice for the Milwaukee area. The
state Department of Health Services is
warning Wisconsin about Lyme disease
after a warm spring triggered more
deer tick activity than usual.19
This image released on July 3, 2012, shows the average maximum tempera-
ture forecast from July 3-7. Black signifies a temperature of 90˚F, bright orange
signifies 109˚F.21
www.cleanwisconsin.org Health | page 9
Air Pollution Water Quality
Air pollution already poses a serious threat to public Climate models predict that the number of heavy
health. Prevalent air pollutants like smog and airborne rain events and the intensity of each event in Wiscon-
allergens like pollen and ragweed are exacerbated by sin will increase over the next few decades. Heavy rains
higher temperatures. With temperatures expected to bring flooding, and while flooding itself can be danger-
increase 6˚F by mid-century,4 air pollution may poten- ous, rising waters increase the likelihood of the spread
tially become an even bigger problem in the future. of waterborne diseases. Bacteria and viruses can be
Ozone, or smog, forms when pollution from vehicles, spread when stormwater runs off contaminated lands,
factories and coal plants react with sunlight and heat. floods drinking wells or causes sewers to overflow into
Higher temperatures not only speed up waterways.
this process but result in more smog. Wisconsin is already familiar with the spread of bac-
Air pollutants decrease lung function, teria and viruses through flooding. After the series of
trigger asthma attacks and send memorable large precipitation events in 2007-’08, E.
people to the hospi- coli bacteria was found to have contaminated drink-
tal, posing ing water in 30% of sources tested.25 Similarly, Milwau-
kee’s infamous Cryptosporidium outbreak of 1993 hap-
pened after heavy rains and record overflows into the
Milwaukee River contaminated the public water sup-
ply, resulting in over $96 million26 in medical and lost
productivity costs.
Total cost of illness during the 1993
an additional threat to already vulnerable groups like cryptosporidiosis outbreak26
the young, elderly and sick. Illness severity Medical costs Lost productivity Total
To warn the public of unhealthy air pollution levels, Mild $790,760 $40,212,000 $41,002,000
the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources issues Moderate $2,710,800 $18,176,000 $20,887,000
Severe $28,153,000 $6,201,400 $34,355,000
air advisories. Through October 31, 2012, Wisconsin Total $31,655,000 $64,589,000 $96,244,000
had experienced 2.5 times as many bad air days as were
Costs in 1993 U.S. dollars; may not add up due to rounding.
issued in all of 2011.23 The high number of bad air days
is likely caused in part by higher temperatures, more of
which we can expect in the future.
Allergies are not often thought of as a health threat, Vector-borne diseases
but they can lead to asthma, result in lost work and The spread of vector-borne diseases, like the West
school days, and significantly lower the quality of Nile virus carried by mosquitoes and Lyme disease
life for those that suffer from itchy eyes and sneezing transmitted by ticks, are a focus of public health re-
and have difficulty breathing. Treating the symptoms search on climate change as both are on the rise.
caused by allergens like ragweed and pollen costs $21 An insect’s geographical range and its rates of disease
billion annually in the United States.24 Climate change transmission are impacted by temperature and precipi-
could make this worse, as rising carbon dioxide levels tation patterns. For example, a study of horses infected
speed weed growth, and higher temperatures lengthen by the West Nile virus showed a temperature drop short-
growing seasons, subsequently extending the allergy ly after the outbreak ceased, suggesting a correlation be-
season. tween temperature and transmission.27 Wisconsin saw
People who are exposed to air pollution are even a 280% jump in Lyme disease cases between 1997 and
more sensitive to allergens, and those with asthma are 2007, with a total of 2,376 cases statewide in 2011.28 More
especially at risk, as allergies can trigger asthma attacks. extreme temperature swings may mean an increase
Climate change threatens to complicate the situation, in these kinds of dangerous infections and diseases.
with a combined threat of increased smog pollution
and more allergens in the air.
page 10 The New NormalRisk Reduction
According to Georges C. Ben-
jamin, president of the American
Public Health Association, “Cli-
mate change is one of the most
serious public health threats fac-
ing our nation...”29 While the full
implications of climate change on
our health is unknown, the public
health community is preparing for
what is to come.
To reduce the risks of climate
change on health, WICCI’s Human
Health Working Group recom-
mends a comprehensive approach
that combines carbon pollution
reductions and adaptation strate-
gies.30 Using cleaner energy sources
and designing cities that promote a
less sedentary lifestyle will not only
improve air quality and health but
also slow climate change.
Climate change is one
of the most serious
public health threats
facing our nation... Incidence of Lyme Disease in Wisconsin Over Time31
—Georges C. Benjamin, President,
By the numbers
American Public Health Association
116
Wisconsin Heat-Wave Deaths, 1982-’0822
Twice as many
90-degree days by
20504
2011 61
2x
2012 (through 10/31/12) 159
Statewide Air Advisories23
www.cleanwisconsin.org Health | page 11Milwaukee residents are familiar with flooded base-
ments that come with heavy rains and sewers flooded
with more water than storage and treatment plants
can handle. To meet the demands of a growing popu-
lation while preventing potentially dangerous sewer
overflows, Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District
(MMSD) is making necessary stormwater infrastruc-
ture upgrades and implementing green infrastructure
and land conservation projects. Not only will these
improvements better manage water during periods of
intense rain to protect property and public health, but
they also help prepare the region for a likely future with
more extreme rain events.
To cope with intense rain events, MMSD construct-
ed deep tunnels 300 feet underground to store up to
521 million gallons of water until the water reclama-
tion facilities can process it. Other projects to prevent
overflows include the repair of extensive sewer leaks
and sources of inflow; treatment plant upgrades; and
homeowner and business efforts like disconnecting
downspouts and installing rain barrels, rain gardens,
green roofs or porous pavement.
MMSD is also employing a unique strategy to ensure
land in the watershed is able to do its job of managing
In partnership with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
MMSD completed this 79.5-acre native prairie restoration stormwater. MMSD’s Greenseams program is designed
as part of the Greenseams program in the Village of Ger- to prevent future flooding by protecting critical lands
mantown. with water-absorbing qualities, such as wetlands. With
PHOTO: MMSD Greenseams, either a conservation easement is placed
on a property or undeveloped property is sold volun-
Building resilience tarily to MMSD. The land stays undeveloped and is
sometimes planted with water-absorbing trees or con-
verted from agricultural land to its natural state. Not
Flood Management and only do wetlands and land with water-absorbing hydric
Green Infrastructure in soil filter water and keep stormwater out of waterways
and reclamation facilities, keeping them intact prevents
Milwaukee the need for detention ponds and channels while pro-
viding recreational opportunities for Milwaukee-area
“
residents.
By preparing for the future, MMSD In order to better understand the impact of climate
can build a more resilient stormwater change on their systems, MMSD has asked for the
system that protects the community’s UW Climate Center and others to downscale WICCI’s
models and provide recommendations for how they
precious water resources while can better prepare for new conditions. By preparing for
minimizing dangerous sewer over- the future, MMSD can build a more resilient stormwa-
ter system that protects the community’s precious wa-
flows that could negatively ter resources while minimizing dangerous sewer over-
harm public health.
” flows that could negatively harm public health.Tourism
Predicting climate impacts
In the News From torrential rains causing Lake Delton to drain
to warm winter weather that threatens the Birkebeiner cross-country ski
Winter tourism off to a good start race in Wisconsin’s Northwoods, it is clear that Wisconsin tourism is de-
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Rick pendent on our climate. The third-largest industry in Wisconsin, tourism
Barrett, 12/30/2010 spans nearly a dozen sectors, employs one in every 13 people and generated
Blessed with early snow, resorts in $16 billion in economic impact for the state in 2011.35 For winter recreation
northern Wisconsin and Michigan re- in particular, weather trumps all. Without cold temperatures and abundant
port the winter tourism season is off to
successful start....
snow, ski hills, snowmobile trails and ice fishing lakes stay empty and the
With a forecast that calls for rain and
communities and businesses that support these activities suffer. Looking at
higher temperatures, winter tourism the key impacts of climate change on popular recreation activities, we get a
businesses are praying for more snow better idea of what’s at stake.
— and cold.32
Is snow too late for tourism in
the state?
Winter Sports
Scientists predict that Wisconsin will see the most warming in the winter,
Fox 11, Green Bay, 3/4/2012
with a 5˚F- to 11˚F-degree increase expected by 2050.4 Wisconsin’s notori-
In Wisconsin, snow can mean many
things for many different people. ously harsh winters will become milder; the season will become four weeks
It can be a nuisance, or a way to enjoy
shorter and we will see up to three fewer weeks of sub-zero temperatures.38
some of your favorite winter activities. This might be good news for some, but we will also have 14 fewer inches of
But for the state’s tourism industry, snow a year.4 Snow on the ground often means a chance to enjoy the winter
it generally means money during the season, but the many Wisconsin residents who snowshoe, ski, or snowmo-
winter months.
bile will have fewer opportunities to enjoy their sports in coming years.
After a slow start to winter without any
sort of substantial snowfall, Northeast Ice cover on lakes has been declining over the last century,36 and predic-
Wisconsin finally has enough to strap tions indicate that this will continue in the coming decades. In fact, some
on a pair of cross country skis.33
lakes in Southern Wisconsin may be ice-free all winter. This is particularly
Emptied Wis. lake drains dollars concerning to the thousands of Wisconsinites who enjoy ice-fishing. The
USA Today, 6/26/2008 tradition, which dates back to American Indians spearing fish in the winter
LAKE DELTON, Wis. — One car after for food, is now being threatened by climate change.
another pulls into the parking lot at a
small public beach on the edge of Lake
Delton. Swimming, though, is not on
the agenda for the families who clam-
ber out. They’re here to gaze at an
empty lake... The 267-acre lake drained
June 9 after rain caused flooding that
broke through its banks and into the
Wisconsin River, creating a chasm that
toppled homes and severed a road.34
Days of Ice Cover on Dane County’s Lake Mendota, Over Time37
Fishing
Brook trout demonstrate the most dramatic impact of climate change on
PHOTO: Lake Delton home, Michael Kienietz, DNR Wisconsin. Home to more than 10,000 miles of trout streams enjoyed by flyfisherman from all over, these miles of streams are all
at risk. If we continue at our current pace of polluting,
Wisconsin would lose its entire brook trout habitat by
2050.4 Under the best case scenario, Wisconsin could
still lose 44% of its brook trout habitat.4 The loss of this
precious resource would also mean a loss of important
tourism dollars; fishing has an annual economic im-
pact of $2.75 billion, supports more than 30,000 jobs,
and generates nearly $200 million in tax revenues.38
As for other popular game fish, there will be winners
and losers with rising temperatures. Warm-water game
fish like largemouth bass and northern pike will benefit
from future changes, but not enough to make up for
losses seen with their cold-water counterparts. Cold-
water fish are expected to decline three times faster
than warm-water fish will increase.4
Great Lakes State Predicted distribution of brook trout in Wisconsin streams
under current climate conditions and three climate-warm-
Property owners, boaters and the tourism industry ing scenarios.39
all have a clear stake in our lakes, but just as important
is Wisconsin’s sense of place, which is wrapped up in
our identity as a Great Lakes state. Dropping lake lev- As for inland lakes, the future is harder to predict
els are a dramatic impact of climate change, and ports, with any certainty and will vary across the state. For
harbors and properties along the lakes will all need inland lakes, one of the most significant impacts of
to watch this trend. Scientific consensus is that Lake climate change is the increase in water pollution from
Michigan and Lake Superior will fall .8 feet to 1.4 feet sediment and nutrients like phosphorus. Increases in
by the end of the century.4 While climate change will the size and frequency of heavy rainfalls will send even
very likely impact lake levels, the levels will vary widely more pollutants into our already choked lakes, so it will
from their averages over the decades. As such, WICCI be even more important that we address water pollu-
scientists recommend that shoreland-zoning and con- tion issues in coming years.
struction follow high water levels to avoid risk.
By the numbers
0
$16 billion
Economic impact of
tourism35
brook trout $2.75 million
habitat, 2050 Economic impact
of fishing37
with current carbon
pollution trends4
page 14 The New NormalUntouched by glaciers that would have turned its
ridges and hills into gravel and rock, Southwestern
Wisconsin’s Driftless area is home to world-class trout
streams. The rolling terrain, marked with valleys and
streams, provides excellent cold-water habitat for trout,
and in their best state, these streams and rivers are en-
joyed by anglers and canoeists, who in turn provide
economic benefits to nearby communities. Through
the centuries, however, erosion, land use patterns and
flooding have put much of the Driftless area’s prized
trout habitat in jeopardy.
Efforts to revitalize this area started in the 1930s and
helped to slow erosion, but new threats like nutrient Before
runoff and stormwater have hampered existing restora-
tion efforts. In 2004, a new regional approach was cre-
ated to expand the work already being conducted by
the Department of Natural Resources and many county
conservation field offices; TUDARE, or Trout Unlimit-
ed Driftless Area Restoration Effort, is accelerating the
effort to ensure that these valuable cold-water streams
are around for generations to come. By combining con-
servation in upland areas, habitat improvements along
the streams, and partnerships between public and pri-
vate entities, real progress is being made. More streams
than ever are available to anglers and the area is seeing
a revitalization of tourism that is bringing welcome in-
come. For example, in 1999 the Kickapoo River Valley After
saw $3.25 million in economic activity from canoeists PHOTO: TUDARE
and anglers, an increase from the $500,000 in eco-
nomic activity before the restoration of the river valley.
Angling alone contributes $1.1 billion annually to the Building resilience
economies of the Driftless area.
While the exact nature of how climate change will im-
Trout stream restoration in
pact trout fisheries is still unclear, we know that access the Driftless Region
to cold-water streams is essential for survival. Stream
restoration projects like streambank stabilization can
help in many ways, such as preventing the build-up of
dark particles in the water that absorb heat. Addition-
ally, restoration projects can convert slow, shallow and
wide streams into deep and narrow streams, which are
“The restoration work will not only
help preserve these world-class fish-
eries and protect Wisconsin’s strong
more trout-friendly. According to project manager Jeff
Hastings, “The restoration work will not only help pre- fishing tradition for future genera-
serve these world-class fisheries and protect Wiscon- tions, but offers the added benefit of
sin’s strong fishing tradition for future generations, but
offers the added benefit of helping insulate these amaz-
helping insulate these amazing
ing waters from the threats of climate change.” waters from the threats of climate
”
change.
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