2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - The Inside Track - Ipsos
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2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION The Inside Track Julia Clark, Senior Vice President 12/12/2019 © 2019 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
Julia Clark, Senior Vice President & Head of Communications 2 ‒ © Ipsos
Chris Jackson is on holiday… 3 ‒ © Ipsos
SUMMARY 1. Vital Statistics - Key Public Opinion Indicators 2. Perceptions of President Donald Trump 3. Democratic Primary 4. Looking Ahead 4 ‒ © Ipsos
Vital Statistics 5 ‒ © Ipsos
American Consumer Confidence Index
Ipsos Global Economic Indicators – U.S. National Indices
National Average Index
Expectations Index
80 Jobs Index
75
71.8
70
65 64.4
60 61.1
55
50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Reuters/Ipsos Data
6 ‒ © Ipsos
Direction of the Country
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right
direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Don’t know
70%
60%
56%
50%
40%
30% 30%
20%
14%
10%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Reuters/Ipsos Data
7 ‒ © Ipsos
Main Problem Facing the Country
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
Healthcare
45% Immigration
Economy generally
40%
Environment
35% Terrorism
Unemployment/jobs
30%
25%
17%
20%
15%
13%
15%
8%
10%
7%
5% 5%
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Reuters/Ipsos Data
8 ‒ © Ipsos
Main Problem Facing the Country
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
All Registered Democratic Republican Independent
All Adults
Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters
Economy generally 13% 14% 13% 15% 15%
Unemployment / lack of jobs 5% 4% 6% 2% 2%
War / foreign conflicts 3% 3% 3% 1% 6%
Immigration 15% 15% 5% 28% 10%
Terrorism / terrorist attacks 8% 9% 8% 11% 7%
Healthcare 17% 18% 24% 10% 24%
Energy issues 1% 2% 2% 2% 0%
Morality 8% 8% 7% 8% 8%
Education 4% 3% 3% 4% 0%
Crime 5% 4% 4% 3% 5%
Environment 7% 9% 13% 4% 7%
Other 10% 10% 10% 10% 11%
Don’t know 5% 3% 2% 3% 3%
Reuters/Ipsos Data November 2019
9 ‒ © Ipsos
Perceptions of President Trump 10 ‒ © Ipsos
Jan 20-24, 2017
Feb 10-14, 2017
March 3-7, 2017
11 ‒ © Ipsos
Reuters/Ipsos Data
March 24-28, 2017
April 21-25, 2017
May 12-16, 2017
June 2-6, 2017 Total Approval
June 21-27, 2017 Total Disapproval
July 14-18, 2017
Aug 4-8, 2017
Aug 25-29, 2017
Sept 15-19, 2017
Oct 6-10, 2017
Oct 27-31, 2017
Nov 17-21, 2017
Dec 8-12, 2017
Dec 29, 2017 - Jan 2, 2018
Jan 19-23, 2018
Feb 9-13, 2018
March 2-6, 2018
March 23-27, 2018
April 13-17, 2018
May 4-8, 2018
May 25-29, 2018
June 15-19, 2018
July 6- 10, 2018
Donald Trump’s Approval Rating
July 27-31, 2018
August 15-21
Sept 5-11, 2018
Sept 26-Oct 2, 2018
October 17-23, 2018
November 14-20, 2018
December 5-11, 2018
December 26, 2018-…
January 16-22, 2019
February 6-13, 2019
March 6 - 12, 2019
March 26 - April 1, 2019
April 17-23, 2019
May 10-14, 2019
May 29-June 5, 2019
June 24-25, 2019
July 15-16, 2019
August 1-5, 2019
August 26-27, 2019
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
Sept 16-17, 2019
Oct 7-8, 2019
Oct 28-29, 2019
Nov 18-19, 2019
Dec 9-10, 2019
40%
54%Donald Trump’s Approval Rating by Party Identification
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
All Americans
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
81%
40%
31%
10%
2017 2018 2019
Reuters/Ipsos Data
12 ‒ © IpsosPerceptions on Impeachment
Which of the following comes closest to your opinion?
President Trump should NOT be impeached
President Trump should be impeached
45%
41%
Reuters/Ipsos Data
13 ‒ © IpsosPerceptions on Impeachment
Imagine that a U.S. President uses the power of the office and the threat of withholding aid or support to
pressure another government for an outcome that would benefit the U.S. President, but would not benefit
the interests of the American people. Which of the following comes closest to your opinion about this
situation?
47%
22%
18%
13%
The president should be The president should be The president did nothing wrong Don't know
impeached and removed from censured, but that's it and therefore no action should
office be taken against the president
Reuters/Ipsos Poll December 2019
14 ‒ © IpsosPerceptions on Impeachment
Based on what you know, do you think President Trump HAS or HAS NOT committed an impeachable
offense?
57%
41%
Trump HAS committed an impeachable offense Trump HAS NOT committed an impeachable offense
Ipsos/538 Poll November-December 2019
15 ‒ © IpsosPerceptions on Impeachment
Based on what you know, if the following happened, would they be impeachable offenses or not
impeachable offenses?
Impeachable Not impeachable
60%
57%
50%
46%
39%
36%
Trump asking the government of Ukraine to investigate Trump withholding military aid from Ukraine unless the Trump and his administration attempting to cover up
Joe and Hunter Biden Ukrainians opened an investigation into the Bidens information about his actions regarding Ukraine
Ipsos/538 Poll November-December 2019
16 ‒ © IpsosNational General Election Market Averages
52% 51% 51%
48%
42% 43% 43% 44%
Biden Trump Sanders Trump Warren Trump Buttigieg Trump
Real Clear Politics National Market Average October-December 2019
17 ‒ © IpsosTrump remains marginal favorite for 2020 but is probably
underperforming where he could be with a strong economy
Ipsos Model: Odds of Chief Executive Victory
President Trump’s Current Approval Rating Modeled Chance of Government Victory
Total Approval
Total Disapproval
Don’t know
Incumbent
Trump’s odds of
Odds of Winning
5% winning re-election:
55%
40% Successor
54%
65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20%
Reuters/Ipsos Data Current President’s Approval Rating
18 ‒ © IpsosDemocratic Primary 19 ‒ © Ipsos
2020 Democratic Primary Candidates – It’s still a crowded field
Michael Bennet Joe Biden Michael Cory Booker Pete Buttigieg Julian Castro John Delaney Tulsi Gabbard
Bloomberg
Amy Klobuchar Deval Patrick Bernie Sanders Tom Steyer Marianne Andrew Yang
Elizabeth Warren
Williamson
20 ‒ © Ipsos2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – National Numbers
If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, and you had to choose from the list
of candidates below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of Democratic registered voters)
Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg Michael Bloomberg
40%
35% 36% 36%
30% 30%
28% 29%
28% 27%
25%
24%
23%
20% 21%
18% 19% 19% 16%
17% 17%
15% 15% 16%
14% 14%
13% 12%
10% 11%
9% 6% 9%
5% 5% 5% 6% 6%
5% 4% 5%
4%
0%
May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019
Reuters/Ipsos Data
21 ‒ © IpsosIdeal Candidate Trait: Ability to Beat Trump
If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, which of the following candidate traits
would be the MOST important factor for you in deciding who to vote for? (Asked of Democratic registered
voters)
42%
11% 10% 10%
7% 7%
4% 3%
Can beat President Strong on Can unify the Strong on the Strong on the Strong progressive Someone new and Strong on
Trump healthcare Democratic Party economy and jobs environment different immigration
Reuters/Ipsos Poll October 17-18, 2019
22 ‒ © IpsosCandidate Most Likely to Beat President Trump
For each of the following, select the candidate from the list below you think is best on the particular issue...
“Most likely to beat President Trump in the general election” (Asked of Democratic registered voters)
Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg
60%
50%
49%
40% 41% 41%
38% 38% 38%
36%
30%
20% 16%
17% 18% 17%
16%
15%
13% 14% 14% 14% 13%
10% 9%
7% 8%
5% 5%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
0%
June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019
Reuters/Ipsos Data
23 ‒ © Ipsos2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – Iowa & New Hampshire
Iowa Democratic Vote Share New Hampshire Democratic Vote Share
Buttigieg 23% Sanders 19%
Sanders 19% Buttigieg 18%
Biden 18%
Biden 14%
Warren 16%
Warren 13%
Klobuchar 7%
Harris 3% Gabbard 6%
Yang 3% Yang 5%
Steyer 3% Harris 4%
Booker 2% Steyer 3%
Gabbard 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Bloomberg 2%
Bullock 1%
Booker 2%
Castro 1% Williamson 1%
Real Clear Politics Market Average - Iowa: 11/06/2019-12/10/2019; New Hampshire: 11/21/2019-12/08/2019
24 ‒ © IpsosPrimary/Caucus Schedule through Super Tuesday
March 3, 2020 –
February February 22, February
February 3, 2020 SUPER
11, 2020 2020 29, 2020
TUESDAY
Iowa New Nevada South Alabama North Carolina
Hampshire Carolina
Arkansas Oklahoma
California Tennessee
Colorado Texas
Maine Utah
Massachusetts Vermont
Minnesota Virginia
25 ‒ © IpsosLooking ahead 26 ‒ © Ipsos
What to Watch For…
Democratic Primary Donald Trump
Fundraising numbers State of the economy
Volume of sympathetic media
Media coverage
coverage
27 ‒ © IpsosComing soon…
Ipsos Political Atlas
• National & local level polling data for 2020
• Social media analytics
• Other key data points – fundraising numbers, internet searches, etc.
• Expert Insight and Analysis
28 ‒ © IpsosIpsos Resources The Point Being – an Ipsos Original Podcast Cliff’s Take – A Weekly Ipsos Original Thought-leadership Piece Reuters/Ipsos Public Opinion Partnership Ipsos Global Economic Indicators 29 ‒ © Ipsos
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