CAPITAL ONE SECURITIES 15TH ANNUAL ENERGY CONFERENCE - December 2020

Page created by Cathy Graves
 
CONTINUE READING
CAPITAL ONE SECURITIES 15TH ANNUAL ENERGY CONFERENCE - December 2020
CAPITAL ONE SECURITIES
15TH ANNUAL ENERGY CONFERENCE
December 2020
CAPITAL ONE SECURITIES 15TH ANNUAL ENERGY CONFERENCE - December 2020
Forward-Looking Statements
 This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 ("Securities Act"), Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 ("Exchange Act") and the United States
 ("U.S.") Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in and incorporated by
 reference into this presentation are "forward-looking statements." Words such as expect, anticipate, intend, plan, believe, seek, estimate, schedule and similar expressions or variations of such words are intended to identify
 forward-looking statements herein. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements regarding future: production, costs and cash flows; drilling locations, zones and growth opportunities; commodity prices
 and differentials; capital expenditures and projects, including the number of rigs employed; cash flows from operations relative to future capital investments; our currently suspended stock repurchase program; financial ratios
 and compliance with covenants in our revolving credit facility and other debt instruments; impacts of certain accounting and tax changes; timing and adequacy of infrastructure projects of our midstream providers and the related
 impact on our midstream capacity and related curtailments; impacts of Colorado political matters; ability to meet our volume commitments to midstream providers; ongoing compliance with our consent decree; and our ability to
 repay our 2021 Convertible Notes.

 The above statements are not the exclusive means of identifying forward-looking statements herein. Although forward-looking statements contained in this release reflect our good faith judgment, such statements can only be
 based on facts and factors currently known to us. Forward-looking statements are always subject to risks and uncertainties, and become subject to greater levels of risk and uncertainty as they address matters further into the
 future. Throughout this presentation or accompanying materials, we may use the term “projection” or similar terms or expressions, or indicate that we have “modeled” certain future scenarios. We typically use these terms to
 indicate our current thoughts on possible outcomes relating to our business or our industry in periods beyond the current fiscal year. Because such statements relate to events or conditions further in the future, they are subject
 to increased levels of uncertainty.

 Further, we urge you to carefully review and consider the cautionary statements and disclosures, specifically those under the heading "Risk Factors," made in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, our Annual Report on Form 10-K
 for the year ended December 31, 2019 filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") on February 26, 2020 (the "2019 Form 10-K"), our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2020 filed
 with the SEC on May 8, 2020 (the "First Quarter 2020 Form 10-Q"), our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2020 filed with the SEC on August 6, 2020 (the "Second Quarter 2020 Form 10-Q") and our
 other filings with the SEC for further information on risks and uncertainties that could affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects, which are incorporated by this reference as though fully set forth
 herein. We caution you not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements in order to
 reflect any event or circumstance occurring after the date of this presentation or currently unknown facts or conditions or the occurrence of unanticipated events. All forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety
 by this cautionary statement.

December 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2
CAPITAL ONE SECURITIES 15TH ANNUAL ENERGY CONFERENCE - December 2020
Reconciliation of Non-U.S. GAAP Financial Metrics
 We use "adjusted cash flows from operations," "adjusted free cash flow (deficit)," "adjusted net income (loss)" and "adjusted EBITDAX," non-U.S. GAAP financial measures, for internal management reporting, when evaluating
 period-to-period changes and, in some cases, in providing public guidance on possible future results. In addition, we believe these are measures of our fundamental business and can be useful to us, investors, lenders and other
 parties in the evaluation of our performance relative to our peers and in assessing acquisition opportunities and capital expenditure projects. These supplemental measures are not measures of financial performance under U.S.
 GAAP and should be considered in addition to, not as a substitute for, net income (loss) or cash flows from operations, investing or financing activities and should not be viewed as liquidity measures or indicators of cash flows
 reported in accordance with U.S. GAAP. The non-U.S. GAAP financial measures that we use may not be comparable to similarly titled measures reported by other companies In the future, we may disclose different non-U.S. GAAP
 financial measures in order to help us and our investors more meaningfully evaluate and compare our future results of operations to our previously reported results of operations. We strongly encourage investors to review our
 financial statements and publicly filed reports in their entirety and to not rely on any single financial measure.

 Adjusted cash flows from operations and adjusted free cash flow (deficit). We believe adjusted cash flows from operations can provide additional transparency into the drivers of trends in our operating cash flows, such as
 production, realized sales prices and operating costs, as it disregards the timing of settlement of operating assets and liabilities. We believe adjusted free cash flow (deficit) provides additional information that may be useful in an
 investor analysis of our ability to generate cash from operating activities from our existing oil and gas asset base to fund exploration and development activities and to return capital to stockholders in the period in which the
 related transactions occurred. We exclude from this measure cash receipts and expenditures related to acquisitions and divestitures of oil and gas properties and capital expenditures for other properties and equipment, which
 are not reflective of the cash generated or used by ongoing activities on our existing producing properties and, in the case of acquisitions and divestitures, may be evaluated separately in terms of their impact on our performance
 and liquidity. Adjusted free cash flow is a supplemental measure of liquidity and should not be viewed as a substitute for cash flows from operations because it excludes certain required cash expenditures. For example, we may
 have mandatory debt service requirements or other non-discretionary expenditures which are not deducted from the adjusted free cash flow measure.

 We are unable to present a reconciliation of forward-looking adjusted cash flow because components of the calculation, including fluctuations in working capital accounts, are inherently unpredictable. Moreover, estimating the
 most directly comparable GAAP measure with the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished without unreasonable effort. We believe that forward-
 looking estimates of adjusted cash flow are important to investors because they assist in the analysis of our ability to generate cash from our operations.

 Adjusted net income (loss). We believe that adjusted net income (loss) provides additional transparency into operating trends, such as production, realized sales prices, operating costs and net settlements on commodity
 derivative contracts, because it disregards changes in our net income (loss) from mark-to-market adjustments resulting from net changes in the fair value of our unsettled commodity derivative contracts, and these changes are
 not directly reflective of our operating performance.

 Adjusted EBITDAX. We believe that adjusted EBITDAX provides additional transparency into operating trends because it reflects the financial performance of our assets without regard to financing methods, capital structure,
 accounting methods or historical cost basis. In addition, because adjusted EBITDAX excludes certain non-cash expenses, we believe it is not a measure of income, but rather a measure of our liquidity and ability to generate
 sufficient cash for exploration, development and acquisitions and to service our debt obligations.

 Beginning in the third quarter of 2019, we included a reconciling item for gains or losses on the sale of properties and equipment when calculating adjusted EBITDAX, thereby no longer including such gains or losses in our
 reported adjusted EBITDAX. We believe this methodology for calculating adjusted EBITDAX will enable greater comparability to our peers, as well as consistent treatment of adjustments for impairment and gains or losses on the
 sale of properties and equipment. For comparability, all prior periods presented have been conformed to the aforementioned methodology.

December 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3
CAPITAL ONE SECURITIES 15TH ANNUAL ENERGY CONFERENCE - December 2020
PDC Strategy Focused on Significant Value-Creation

                    Focus on Execution

                    Sustainable Adjusted                                                                                                                                Wattenberg Field
                    FCF(1) Generation                                               Top Priorities in
                                                                                                                                                                          161,000 Boe/d(2)

                                                                                  Demand Destruction
                    Through-the-Cycle                                                   World                                               Delaware Basin
                                                                                                                                              31,500 Boe/d(2)
                    Balance Sheet Strength

                    Committed to Corporate
                    Social Responsibility                                                                                                               PDC Market Snapshot(3)
                                                                                                                                             Nasdaq Symbol                                   PDCE
                                                                                                                                             Market Cap                                   $1.7 billion
                    Modest Growth
                                                                                        On hold in                                           Net Debt                                     $1.7 billion
                                                                                    Demand Destruction                                       Enterprise Value                             $3.4 billion
                                                                                         World
                    Consistent Returns                                                                                                       Shares Outstanding                           100 million
                    of Capital to Shareholders                                                                                               Total Liquidity                              ~$1.4 billion

                (1) Adjusted FCF defined as net cash from operating activities, before changes in working capital, less oil & gas capital investments. See appendix for reconciliation.
December 2020   (2) Production = 3Q20; (3) Market cap, Enterprise Value, liquidity and shares outstanding as of 11/30/20.                                                                                 4
Third Quarter Results Emphasize Valuation Disconnect

                              3rd Quarter Highlights
                                                                                                                                                        Permit Update
 • ~$280 million of net cash from operating activities
       − Generated ~$225 million of adjusted free cash flow (FCF)(1)                                               •    32 additional permits approved in September & October
       − 3Q20 FCF represents ~15% of current market cap(2)
                                                                                                                   •    Expect ~475 combined DUCs & approved permits at YE20

 • ~$35 million capital investments                                                                                •    Anticipate more approved permits prior to year-end
       − Operated one DJ drilling rig and resumed DJ completions in September
                                                                                                                   •    Anticipate Mission Change rulemaking related to siting
                                                                                                                        requirements to be finalized in late November and effective
                                                                                                                        mid-January
 • Paid down ~$215 million of debt in 3Q and additional
   ~$70 million in Oct.
       − Represents nearly 10% current Enterprise Value(2)

 • Continue to effectively drive down costs – LOE + G&A < $4 per Boe
       − Synergies of SRC merger demonstrated through LOE of $2.11/Boe and G&A of $1.84/Boe

                   (1) Adjusted free cash flow (FCF) defined as net cash from operating activities, before changes in working capital, less oil & gas capital investments. See appendix for reconciliation.
December 2020      (2) Market cap and Enterprise Value as of 11/30/20 of ~$1,675 and ~$3,350, respectively.                                                                                                   5
Resilient Balance Sheet with Strong Hedge Book

                     Liquidity Update
                        (as of September 30, 2020)

 • Borrowing base and commitment level of $1.6 billion                                              as of 10/31/20
   (post-Fall redetermination in October 2020)
                                                                   $2,000
 • Borrowings under revolver of ~$285 million at 3Q                                                   Revolver
                                                                                                  (Commitment Level)
       − Paid down ~$215 million of debt in 3Q20
       − Paid down an additional ~$70 million of debt in October
                                                                   $1,500
 • Liquidity of ~$1.4 billion
                                                                                                                                    5.75%
                                                                                                                                    Senior
                                                                   $1,000                                                           Notes
                                                                                                                6.125%             $750MM     $150MM
                                                                                                                Senior                        Tack-On
                                                                                     1.125%
                     Hedging Update                                 $500           Convertible
                                                                                                                 Notes
                                                                                                               $400MM 6.25%
                         (as of October 31, 2020)                                     Notes                             Senior
                                                                                    $200MM              $215MM          Notes
 • ~45% of 2021 crude hedged at $45.00 WA floor                                                                        $100MM
 • ~55% of 2021 nat. gas hedged at $2.45 WA floor                     $0
                                                                            2020      2021       2022    2023        2024   2025    2026     2027   2028

                                                                                   Total Debt: ~$1.7 billion (as of 10/31/20)

December 2020                                                                                                                                              6
Project Significant FCF at $35 Oil
 • Capital investment range to $500 - $550 million                                                                                    2020e Capital Investments
       − Expect ~$110 million in 4Q                                                                                                                      (millions)
       − Wattenberg – one rig and one completion crew planned
       − Delaware – minimal planned activity through year-end

                                                                                                               $1,000 - $1,100

                                                                                                                                                      $500 - $600
                                                                                                                                                                                           $500 - $550
 • Anticipate FCF of more than $350 million(1)
                                                                                                                2020e (February)                       2020e (May)                        2020e (August)

                                                                                                                                          Net Oil Pricing Summary
 • Full-year oil production of 64,000 – 68,000 Bbls/d and                                                           $/Bbl                    2019         1Q20         2Q20          3Q20         4Q20e       2021e
   total production of 175,000 – 185,000 Boe/d                                                        NYMEX Oil                             $57.03       $46.17       $27.85        $40.93        $35.00      $40.00
       − Anticipate < 10% sequential decline in 4Q20                                                  Deduct(2)                             ($3.77)      ($3.86)      ($9.22)       ($3.44)      ($3 - $4)   ($2 - $4)
       − Quarterly exit rates of ~175,000 Boe/d and ~60,000 Bbls/d                                    Gross Realized (% of NYMEX)             93%         92%           67%          92%              ~90%   90 – 95%
                                                                                                      TGP                                   ($1.24)      ($1.46)      ($1.87)       ($3.00)       ($3.00)    ($2 - $4)
                                                                                                      Realized Netback                      $52.01       $40.86       $16.76        $34.49       $28 - $29   $32 - $36

                   (1) Assumes 4Q20 pricing of $35/Bbl WTI, $2.50/Mcf NYMEX natural gas and NGL realizations of ~$10/Bbl. (2) Includes anticipated quality, roll and transport differentials, which
December 2020      vary by contract.                                                                                                                                                                                     7
Multi-Year Focus on Sustainable FCF Generation
                                                                                    All Numbers Approximate

                    2020 + 2021 Highlights                                                                                       Significant FCF Generation
                                                                                                                                                   (millions)

                                                                                                                                                    $350+
 • Anticipate 2-year cumulative capital investments of
   ~$1.1 billion                                                                                                                                                                      $300

                                                                                                                    $200
 • ~$850 million of projected FCF between 2H19 and YE21
       − Increase to initial SRC acquisition projections despite dramatic
         decrease in pricing                                                                                  PDC Standalone
       − Have generated FCF in 4 of the past 5 quarters                                                         $56.71/Bbl                      $35.00/Bbl (4Q)                     $40.00/Bbl
                                                                                                                $2.36/Mcf                         $2.50/Mcf                         $2.75/Mcf
       − Project ~400 million FCF over next 5 quarters on ~$650 million
         capital investment                                                                                         2H19                             2020e                            2021e
                                                                                                              FCF Yield(2)                           ~20%                            ~20%
                                                                                                              FCF/EV Yield(2)                        ~10%                            ~10%
 • Balance sheet strength and low absolute debt level remains
   top priority                                                                                               FCF Margin                              66%                             55%

       − Better positioned for incremental, sustainable return-of-                                                                               FCF Sensitivity
         capital initiatives
                                                                                                              Change                                    4Q20                           2021
       − 2020 Guidance and 2021 Outlook each reflect
         re-investment rate below 70% at ~$40/Bbl oil                                                         +/- $2.50/Bbl WTI                       < $5 MM                        $35 MM
                                                                                                              +/- $0.25/MMbtu Gas                     < $5 MM                        $15 MM
                                                                                                              +/- $1.00/Bbl NGL                       < $5 MM                        $15 MM

                  (1) Assumes 4Q20 pricing of $35/Bbl WTI, $2.50/Mcf NYMEX natural gas and NGL realizations of ~$10/Bbl. 2021 pricing of $40/Bbl WTI, $2.75/Mcf NYMEX natural gas and NGL
December 2020         realizations of ~$10/Bbl. (2) Market cap and Enterprise Value as of 11/30/20. Debt balance of ~$1.7 billion.                                                               8
Commitment to Corporate Social Responsibility
                                                Published Inaugural Sustainability Report in Alignment with SASB Standards

           Responsible                               Environmental                                      Social                               Corporate
           Operations                                 Stewardship                                      Impact                               Governance
                 52%                                         84%                                     2,285                                      > 50%
  Year-over-year decrease in Total Recordable   Reduction in methane emissions per Boe   Volunteer hours by PDC employees in 2019   Office-based employees that are women
                 Incident Rate                                since 2016                       Energize Our Community Day

                   29                                   260,000                                           90                                      50%
   Average hours of annual health and safety       Reduced truckloads per year due to       Organizations across four states that   Board refreshment over the past five years
         training for field employees                increased oil and water piping               received PDC donations

December 2020                                                                                                                                                                    9
ASSET OVERVIEW
Wattenberg Overview

                   Key Statistics

                    785
                 YE19 PF Proved Reserves
                                                                               Prairie Area

                        (MMBoe)
                                                                        Summit Area

                ~161,000
                    3Q20 Production                                                           Kersey Area
                       (Boe/d)
                                                                      Plains Area

                   33%
                     3Q20 Crude Oil
                      (Production)
                                                                            ~180,000 Net Acres

                                                     -   Currently operating one rig and one completion crew

                 $1.89
                     3Q20 LOE/Boe
                                                     -   Anticipate 1 rig and 1 full-time completion crew in 2021

December 2020                                                                                                       11
Current Colorado Permit Process
                                                       Average ~12 Months from Permit Submittal to Approval (steps 3-4)

 1. Site Selection Process – Surface Owner                                3. Submit Form 2A Application – COGCC                                  5. PERMIT APPROVED
 -   Field land and surface owner agree on pad location                   -   Submit application for approval of surface location                -   2 years to commence operations
     - Alternative location analysis                                          - Does not include specific well approval
     - Access roads & facility/tank locations                                 - Includes planned # of wells on location
                                                   Best Mgmt.
     - Oil, gas, water & power connections       Practices (BMPs)         -   Receive Form 2A Approval - ~6 months (move to step 4)
     - Dust & sound mitigation
     - Safety protocol
 -   Sign Surface Use Agreement (SUA)
     (move to step 2)

       2. Data Gathering & Local Review – Local Gov’t.                                                       4. Submit Form 2 Application – COGCC
       -   Compile leaseholder & mineral owner information                                                   -   Submit application for each specific well (below ground)
       -   Notify all BU owners within 2,000’ – include estimated drill date                                 -   Casing design
       -   Submit local government permit application to municipality or Weld County                         -   Cement usage and mud weights
           - Municipality = Use by Special Review (USR)                                                      -   Receive Form 2 Approval - ~6 months
           - Weld County = Weld Oil & Gas Location Assessment (WOGLA)
       -   Analysis of BMPs
       -   Receive ‘Local Government Approval’ to proceed with COGCC
           permit application (move to step 3)

December 2020                                                                                                                                                                         12
Current COGCC Rulemaking Update
                                SB-181 Rules Related to Setback and Siting Requirements Expected to be Finalized in Late November
 • Current proposal of new rules viewed as extremely similar to existing Director’s Objective Criteria
       −   500’ setback from Building Unit (BU)
       −   2,000’ setback from School Facilities and Child Care Centers
       −   “Siting requirements for proposed oil & gas locations within 2,000’ of one BU or high occupancy BU” replaces “Director’s Objective Criteria”
       −   Oil & Gas Development Plans (OGDP) and Comprehensive Area Plans (CAP) – multiple surface location permits (Form 2A’s) with extended permit life

 Must satisfy one of four criteria to obtain Surface Location Permit (Form 2A)
   1. No BU’s within 2,000’ of proposed location – ~5% of PDC’s undeveloped inventory
   2. Unanimous BU owner/BU tenant acknowledgment
   3. Location is within a Comprehensive Area Plan (CAP)
   4. COGCC Commission hearing determines equivalent protections exist at distances closer than 2,000’
           −    Best Management Practices – consistent with current PDC practices
           −    Local Government consideration – consideration of local government decision – consistent with current USR/WOGLA approval
           −    Alternative site analysis – consistent with current PDC site selection process
           −    Relation to larger development plans – consistent with PDC emphasis on long-term planning & reducing surface footprint, increased piping, etc.
           −    Plans to avoid, minimize and mitigate impacts on residential BU’s – consistent with current PDC noise and dust mitigation efforts
           −    Community Outreach – consistent with current PDC practices discussed in 2020 Sustainability Report
           −    Staff recommendation – COGCC staff to offer Formal Consultation Process with Municipality/Weld County

 Minimal anticipated changes to individual well/below ground (Form 2) approval process
December 2020                                                                                                                                                    13
Attaining Colorado Permits Amidst Ongoing Rulemaking Discussions
 • Project to exit 2020 with ~275 well permits (Form 2) secured through 23 approved surface location permits (Form 2A)
        − 85% of approved surface locations were approved under the COGCC’s Director’s Objective Criteria
        − Average proximity to nearest BU of ~800’
                                                                                                     ~130
                                                                                                                                   ~230

 • Received approval for 32 well permits in September and October (4 surface locations)
        − Each surface location contained an average ~10 Building Units (BU) within 2,000’
        − Average proximity to nearest BU of ~750’

 • Potential for additional approved permits prior to new rulemaking effective date                                 ~1,470        ~1,240

                                                                                                                    Key Takeaways
Area                     2020 Spuds            2020 TILs           YE20 DUCs          YE20 Permits          • Successful track record of
Kersey                       20%                  25%                 40%                    35%              attaining permits under the
Summit                       60%                  60%                 40%                    40%              Director’s Objective Criteria

Plains                        5%                  10%                 15%                    10%            • Expected ~475 DUCs and
Prairie                      15%                  5%                   5%                    15%              approved permits at YE20
                                                                                                              reflect ~4 years of TIL activity
Total                        100                  130                 ~200                   ~275
                                                                                                              at current pace

December 2020                                                                                                                                 14
Rural Weld County Position with Low Building Unit (BU) Density
 • PDC acreage is 100% in Weld County, Colorado
                                                                                             PDC Inventory in Relation to Nearest BU
       − ~80% in unincorporated Weld County (not within Municipal                                       (Does Not Include DUCs)
         boundaries)

 • Extremely rural acreage position with low BU density
   increases potential to achieve unanimous consent
       − ~90% of unpermitted inventory has < 20 BU’s within 2,000’
         compared to ~85% of permitted inventory

 BU’s within 2,000’            0      1-10     11-20     21-35     35+
 Permitted Inventory          0%      75%       10%       5%      10%
 Unpermitted Inventory        5%      60%       25%       5%       5%

                                                               Key Takeaway
                                   • Unpermitted and permitted inventory have very consistent BU
                                     density and proximity to nearest Building Unit
                *All numbers approximate and do not include surface pad optimization which has potential to further improve numbers*
December 2020                                                                                                                          15
Capital Efficiency Gains Contributing to Lower Projected Well Costs
                                                                                                                                   Wattenberg Completions Efficiency(1)
                                                                                                                                         (Hours per day Completing)
 • Continued improvements to Wattenberg completions                                                    85%
                                                                                                                                                                                  82%

       − Recent completion activity averaging ~20 stages per day                                       80%
                                                                                                                                       76%                            77%
       − Consistently improving non-productive time per day                                            75%           73%                                74%

                                                                                                       70%

                                                                                                       65%

 • 2020 XRL drill times more than 20% faster than                                                      60%
   early 2019 performance                                                                                           1Q19              2Q19             3Q19           1Q20       3Q20

       − Average spud-to-spud XRL drill times of 6 days                                                                                Wattenberg Drill Times(1)
                                                                                                                                             (XRL, Spud-to-Spud)
                                                                                                             12

                                                                                                             9
 • Expect 5-10% improvement on projected well costs
   from current $400/ft. (DJ) and $850/ft. (DE) estimates

                                                                                                      Days
                                                                                                             6
       − Balancing potential per well savings with ability to D&C
         more Wattenberg wells
                                                                                                             3

                                                                                                             0
                                                                                                                  1H19 = 7.7 days            2H19 = 7.5 days           1H20 = 6.0 days
December 2020      (1) The Company did not have any completions activity in 4Q19 or 2Q20 and did not drill any XRL wells in 3Q20                                                         16
Delaware Basin Overview

                 Key Statistics                                                                Loving County

                   120
                 YE19 Proved Reserves
                       (MMBoe)

                ~31,500
                   3Q20 Production
                                                            N. Central

                      (Boe/d)

                  39%
                    3Q20 Crude Oil
                                                               Reeves County
                                                                                             Block 4
                                                                                                               Pecos

                     (Production)                                              ~25,000 Net Acres

                                                    -   No significant activity planned through year-end

                 $3.21
                    3Q20 LOE/Boe
                                                    -   Anticipate 1 full-time rig and 15-20 TILs in 2021

December 2020                                                                                                          17
Consistent, Successful Execution of Transparent Strategy
                 Track Record of Operational and Financial Execution Positions PDC for Sustainable Value-Creation

    •       Ability to generate consistent, sustainable adjusted free cash flow
                − Project to generate more than $400 million FCF through 2021 with positive FCF expected in each of next 5 quarters(1)

    •       Focus on maintaining strong balance sheet and low cost structure
                − Focus on reducing absolute debt level to ~$1.5 billion to enable sustainable shareholder friendly initiatives and continued debt pay down

    •       Improved DJ midstream environment
                − Lower line pressures with ample capacity lead to improved well productivity

    •       Confident in executing Colorado development plan
                − ~4 years of TIL activity secured through DUCs and approved permits with track record of successfully working with COGCC

    •       Resilient 5-year outlook
                − FCF yield, leverage and cost structure to compete with broad market

                     (1) Assumes 4Q20 pricing of $35/Bbl WTI, $2.50/Mcf NYMEX natural gas and NGL realizations of ~$10/Bbl. 2021 pricing of $40/Bbl WTI, $2.75/Mcf NYMEX natural gas and NGL
December 2020        realizations of ~$10/Bbl.                                                                                                                                                 18
Investor Relations
    Kyle Sourk, Sr. Manager Corporate Finance & Investor Relations
    kyle.sourk@pdce.com

Corporate Headquarters                     Website
    PDC Energy, Inc.                           www.pdce.com
    1775 Sherman Street
    Suite 3000
    Denver, Colorado 80203
    303-860-5800
APPENDIX
Continued Emphasis on Cost Management
            Targeting combined LOE + G&A of < $5/Boe                                        LOE + G&A ($/Boe)
                                                                                                  LOE   G&A
                                                                         $8.00                 $7.51
 • Merger synergies and focus on costs reflected through                         $6.60
                                                                                                              $6.15
   anticipated year-over-year reduction of 20+% in LOE+G&A/Boe           $6.00
                                                                                               $4.25                  ~$4.50(1)
                                                                                 $3.78                        $3.27
                                                                         $4.00
                                                                                                                       $2.05
 • Anticipated LOE of $160 - $165 million                                $2.00                 $3.26
                                                                                 $2.82                        $2.88    $2.45
                                                                         $0.00
                                                                                  2017         2018            2019    2020e
 • G&A expected between $135 - $140 million
       − Includes ~$25 million of stock-based comp
       − Includes ~$10 million of SRC transition-related expense                            LOE + G&A ($/Boe)
       − Excludes ~$20 million of SRC deal costs
                                                                                                 LOE    G&A
                                                                         $6.00   $5.44(1)
 • Anticipate TGP of $1.00 - $1.15/Boe
                                                                                              $4.13                   ~$4.20
                                                                         $4.00   $2.50                        $3.95

                                                                                              $2.05           $1.84
                                                                                                                      $1.70
 • Production taxes of 5% – 6% of sales
                                                                         $2.00
                                                                                 $2.94                                $2.50
                                                                                              $2.08           $2.11
                                                                         $0.00
                                                                                 1Q20         2Q20            3Q20    4Q20e
                   (1) Excludes ~$20 million of SRC deal costs in 1Q20
December 2020                                                                                                                     21
Detailed Hedge Positions
                    Hedges as of October 31, 2020

December 2020                                       22
Modified 2020 STI Compensation Metrics

   PDC Board of Directors modified 2020 executive STI quantitative metrics in May 2020 in response to demand destruction
• Reduced target payout and maximum payout percentages
• Maintain current weightings:
      − 75% quantitative / 25% qualitative
• Added Leverage Ratio to emphasize importance of balance sheet strength in low commodity price environment
• Removed production to better align with industry demands and account for unknown curtailment period
• G&A + LOE metric now measured in millions instead of per Boe to further de-emphasize production

                                          2020 Proxy                                 2020 Revised (May)
                                 −   EHS                                      −   EHS
                                 −   Free cash flow margin                    −   Free cash flow (absolute millions)
                                                                      15%
                        12.5%    −   G&A + LOE per Boe                each
                                                                              −   G&A + LOE (absolute millions)
                         each    −   CROCI                                    −   CROCI
                                 −   Production                               −   Leverage Ratio (New)
                                 −   Capital efficiency/F&D                   −   Production (No weighting)
                                                                              −   F&D (No weighting)

December 2020                                                                                                              23
Adjusted Free Cash Flow & Adjusted Earnings Reconciliations
                                                      Cash Flows from Operations to Adjusted Cash Flows from Operations and Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Deficit)
                                                                                                                  Three Months Ended               Nine Months Ended
                                                                                                                     September 30,                   September 30,
                                                                                                                  2020           2019             2020           2019
                                           Cash flows from operations to adjusted cash flows from
                                           operations and adjusted free cash flow (deficit):
                                             Net cash from operating activities                               $     280.1    $     233.5      $        649.3    $    651.0
                                             Changes in assets and liabilities                                      (18.7)         (31.1)                3.5         (49.1)
                                              Adjusted cash flows from operations                                   261.4          202.4               652.8         601.9
                                             Capital expenditures for development of crude oil and natural
                                             gas properties                                                         (57.6)        (237.8)          (445.5)          (755.8)
                                             Change in accounts payable related to capital expenditures for          24.2           74.2                31.4          32.9
                                             oil and gas development activities
                                              Adjusted free cash flow (deficit)                               $     228.0    $      38.8      $        238.7    $   (121.0)

                                                                     Net Loss to Adjusted Net Income (Loss) and Adjusted Earnings Per Share, Diluted
                                                                                                                  Three Months Ended               Nine Months Ended
                                                                                                                     September 30,                   September 30,
                                                                                                                  2020           2019             2020           2019
                                           Net income (loss) to adjusted net income (loss):
                                             Net income (loss)                                                $     (30.8)   $      15.9      $    (717.6)      $    (35.7)
                                             Loss (gain) on commodity derivative instruments                         68.1          (54.9)          (245.9)            87.9
                                             Net settlements on commodity derivative instruments                     66.9               1.8            227.5         (19.8)
                                             Tax effect of above adjustments (1)                                       —            12.7                 —           (16.3)
                                              Adjusted net income (loss)                                      $     104.2    $     (24.5)     $    (736.0)      $     16.1

                                           Earnings per share, diluted                                        $     (0.31)   $      0.25      $        (7.34)   $    (0.55)
                                             Loss (gain) on commodity derivative instruments                         0.68          (0.87)              (2.52)         1.35
                                             Net settlements on commodity derivative instruments                     0.67           0.03                2.33         (0.30)
                                             Tax effect of above adjustments (1)                                       —            0.20                 —           (0.25)
                                           Adjusted earnings per share, diluted                               $      1.04    $     (0.39)     $        (7.53)   $     0.25
                                           Weighted-average diluted shares outstanding                              100.2           62.5                 97.8           64.9

December 2020   (1) Due to the full valuation allowance recorded against our net deferred tax assets, there is no tax effect for the three or nine months ended September 30, 2020.   24
Reconciliation Non-U.S. GAAP Metrics

                                                                       Adjusted EBITDAX
                                                                                  Three Months Ended               Nine Months Ended
                                                                                     September 30,                   September 30,
                                                                                 2020             2019             2020             2019
                Net income (loss) to adjusted EBITDAX:
                 Net income (loss)                                           $      (30.8)    $        15.9    $    (717.6)     $     (35.7)
                 Loss (gain) on commodity derivative instruments                     68.1           (54.9)          (245.9)            87.9
                 Net settlements on commodity derivative instruments                 66.9                1.8         227.5            (19.8)
                 Non-cash stock-based compensation                                      5.4              5.9          17.4             18.1
                 Interest expense, net                                               21.0              17.8           67.0             53.7
                 Income tax expense (benefit)                                           0.2            10.7           (3.5)            (4.2)
                 Impairment of properties and equipment                                 1.2              0.2         882.3             37.0
                 Exploration, geologic and geophysical expense                          0.2              0.2              1.0              3.5
                 Depreciation, depletion and amortization                           144.5           171.8            470.2            491.8
                 Accretion of asset retirement obligations                              2.4              1.4              7.4              4.5
                 Loss (gain) on sale of properties and equipment                     (0.3)             43.9           (0.6)                9.6
                  Adjusted EBITDAX                                           $      278.8     $     214.7      $     705.2      $     646.4

                Cash from operating activities to adjusted EBITDAX:
                 Net cash from operating activities                          $      280.1     $     233.5      $     649.3      $     651.0
                 Interest expense, net                                               21.0              17.8           67.0             53.7
                 Amortization of debt discount and issuance costs                    (3.6)             (3.4)         (12.5)           (10.1)
                 Exploration, geologic and geophysical expense                          0.2              0.2              1.0              3.5
                 Other                                                               (0.2)             (2.3)          (3.1)            (2.6)
                 Changes in assets and liabilities                                  (18.7)          (31.1)                3.5         (49.1)
                  Adjusted EBITDAX                                           $      278.8     $     214.7      $     705.2      $     646.4

December 2020                                                                                                                                    25
Reconciliation of Non-U.S. GAAP Metrics

                Beginning in 3Q19, the Company modified its adjusted EBITDAX reconciliation to exclude (Gain) loss on sale of properties and equipment

   Net income (loss) to adjusted EBITDAX (in millions):                    3Q19               4Q19                1Q20              2Q20              3Q20
    Net income (loss)                                                 $        15.9       $          (21.0)   $      (465.0)    $      (221.8)    $          (30.8)
    (Gain) loss on commodity derivative instruments                           (54.9)                   74.9          (434.7)             120.8                  68.1
    Net settlements on commodity derivative instruments                         1.8                     2.2              45.8            114.8                  66.9
    Non-cash stock-based compensation                                           5.9                     5.7               5.7               6.4                  5.4
    Interest expense, net                                                      17.8                    17.4              24.2              21.8                 21.0
    Income tax expense (benefit)                                               10.7                     0.9             (7.7)               4.1                  0.2
    Impairment of properties and equipment                                      0.2                     1.5            881.1                  -                  1.2
    Exploration, geologic and geophysical expense                               0.2                     0.6               0.1               0.7                  0.2
    Depreciation, depletion and amortization                                  171.8                   152.4            176.2             149.5                144.5
    Accretion of asset retirement obligations                                   1.4                     1.6               2.6               2.4                  2.4
    (Gain) loss on sale of properties and equipment                            43.9                     0.1             (0.2)             (0.2)                (0.3)
      Adjusted EBITDAX                                                $      214.7        $           236.3   $        228.1    $        198.5    $           278.8

December 2020                                                                                                                                                          26
Definitions

                Adjusted FCF – Free Cash Flow (cash flows from operations before changes in   EUR – Estimated Ultimate Recovery
                working capital, less capital investments)
                                                                                              FCF Margin – Adjusted free cash flow divided by capital investments
                AMI – Area of Mutual Interest
                                                                                              Gross Margin – Oil, gas and NGL sales less LOE, TGP and prod. tax, as a % of oil, gas
                Bbl – Barrel                                                                  and NGL sales
                Boe – Barrel of oil equivalent                                                Leverage Ratio – as defined in our revolving credit facility agreement; similar to
                                                                                              Debt to EBITDAX
                BU – Building Unit
                                                                                              LOE – Lease operating expenses
                Btu – British thermal unit
                                                                                              MM – Million
                CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate
                                                                                              MMcf – Million cubic feet
                CFPS – Cash flow per share
                                                                                              RoR – Rate of Return
                COGCC – Colorado Oil & Gas Commission
                                                                                              SRL/MRL/XRL – Standard-, Mid- and Extended-reach lateral
                CWC – Completed well cost
                                                                                              SWD – Salt-water disposal
                D&C – Drilling and Completions
                                                                                              TGP – Transportation, gathering and processing
                EBITDAX – Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and
                exploration                                                                   TIL – Turn-in-line

December 2020                                                                                                                                                                         27
You can also read