ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY - Railway investment choices July 2020 - Network Rail
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ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY Railway investment choices July 2020
CONTENTS
1 Foreword .......................................................................................................................................... 2
2 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 3
2.1 The Need for a Study............................................................................................................3
2.2 Expected Growth ....................................................................................................................3
2.3 Options Development ..........................................................................................................4
2.4 Recommendations .................................................................................................................6
3 The Essex Thameside Corridor ................................................................................................. 7
3.1 Rail Industry Planning ..........................................................................................................7
3.2 Geography & Scope...............................................................................................................8
3.3 Passenger Services .............................................................................................................. 10
3.4 Freight Services .................................................................................................................... 11
3.5 Recent Growth – Passenger ............................................................................................ 13
3.6 Recent Growth – Freight .................................................................................................. 16
3.7 Committed Schemes.......................................................................................................... 17
3.8 Uncommitted Schemes and Aspirations .................................................................. 20
4 Study Approach .......................................................................................................................... 24
4.1 Strategic Questions ............................................................................................................ 24
4.2 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 25
4.3 Study Planning Horizon .................................................................................................... 25
4.4 Governance ............................................................................................................................ 26
5 Long-Term Growth Assessment ............................................................................................ 27
5.1 Growth Assessment – Passenger .................................................................................. 27
5.2 Growth Assessment – Freight ........................................................................................ 35
5.3 Impact on Stations ............................................................................................................. 37
6 Meeting the Forecast Demand ............................................................................................. 42
6.1 Network Capability and Capacity – Passenger ...................................................... 42
6.2 Priority Station Interventions ........................................................................................ 53
6.3 Other Station Interventions ........................................................................................... 62
6.4 Network Capability and Capacity – Freight ............................................................ 63
6.5 Level Crossings ...................................................................................................................... 65
7 Strategy Options ........................................................................................................................ 67
7.1 Responses to the Strategic Questions ........................................................................ 67
7.2 Summary of Options .......................................................................................................... 68
7.3 Higher Growth ...................................................................................................................... 73
7.4 Recommendations for Further Study ......................................................................... 74
1
1 FOREWORD
The Essex Thameside corridor is a key rail area including the train operator, c2c, the
route into London on the north Thames Department for Transport, Transport for
estuary serving key towns such as London, Essex County Council and the
Southend-on-Sea, Basildon, Grays and Association of South Essex Local
Tilbury as well as large catchments in Authorities, who have formed part of the
East London in areas such as Barking and study’s ‘board’.
Dagenham. Although relatively small and
quite self-contained compared to many Although a broad ranging study, it has
other routes into London, the challenges focussed on long-term capacity and has
that it faces in the future are significant. assessed the corridor under the overall
Population growth in this area is question of ‘What interventions are
expected to be one of the highest in the required to support the expected growth
country and, alongside expected growth in passenger and freight services in the
in freight handling along the corridor, the Essex Thameside area over the next 30
solutions for meeting this growth are years?’. This was supported by five sub-
particularly challenging. questions to help establish the required
infrastructure and station interventions
This study seeks to identify the to support demand for passenger and
generational challenge related to growth freight services in the long-term.
by assessing forecast passenger and
freight growth over the next 30 years. It The publication of this study is expected
identifies a series of potential to be the start of further consideration of
infrastructure and station improvements enhancement options for this corridor.
to help funders make informed decisions These options will provide rail investment
about enhancing this part of the national choices for the Secretary of State for
rail network. Transport through the Department for
Transport and Network Rail’s investment
The study builds upon the findings of the pipeline. The study will also provide
2016 Anglia Route Study and forms part guidance to other Government
of Network Rail’s programme of departments and sub-regional
Continuous Modular Strategic Planning organisations on how this part of the rail
(CMSP). The study has been facilitated network could develop to meet the
by Network Rail, developed in employment and population growth
partnership with key organisations in the expectations for this area.
2
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This study seeks to inform long-term which will help determine what
investment choices for this strategically infrastructure and station interventions
important south Essex corridor. It may be required on this corridor over the
assesses a number of Strategic next generation.1
Questions, the answers and outputs to
2.1 THE NEED FOR A STUDY
Conducting this study was considered a signalling solutions. This study
priority for several reasons: complements this work, considering
all capacity options and a longer
• the pressures on this corridor from planning horizon for the period up to
both passenger and freight demand 2050.
are set to grow significantly over the
next few decades due to housing and • recent studies have highlighted
population growth, the growth of pedestrian capacity pressures at
London Gateway and Tilbury ports, London Fenchurch Street, West Ham
and regeneration proposals and Barking stations. This study
(including new stations) opening up considers these findings in one place,
new markets to travel. assesses their recommendations and
presents the most valuable options
• the 2016 Anglia Route Study for further investigation in light of
identified several interventions for refreshed demand forecasts.
this part of the route but did not
develop these recommendations. The • studies are being completed for the
core recommendation of introducing other two key main lines on the
some longer trains in the short-term Anglia route, i.e. the Great Eastern
will be implemented in 2021. Main Line (GEML) and the West
Anglia Main Line (WAML). An
• the Train Operating Company (TOC), equivalent study for Essex Thameside
c2c, which is currently franchised to ensures that all three main corridors
operate passenger services along the have been subject to a detailed
corridor until 2029, has commenced assessment of future options.
development work into digital
2.2 EXPECTED GROWTH
Overall passenger demand in the high with growth at the critical load point
peak is projected to grow 35% by 2050, (between Barking and West Ham) being
1 Assumed to be 30 years for the purpose of this study.
3
approximately 42%, from a 2018 base. combined with high population growth
In the short-term, 9% growth is expected expected in east London boroughs and
by 2025 which is likely to result in Thurrock.
capacity challenges on parts of the
corridor, particularly between Barking Growth in rail freight is also projected to
and West Ham, and on both lines be strong, with unconstrained2 demand
immediately east of Upminster. This forecasted to increase four-fold by 2043,
growth in demand is primarily driven by primarily driven by the key intermodal
growth in Central London employment and bulk aggregates markets.
Coronavirus (Covid-19) Impact
It is recognised that, as of April 2020, passenger demand has fallen sharply as a result
of the Coronavirus pandemic.
The growth forecasts for both passenger and freight were carried out in 2019 before the
pandemic and its restrictions started. Further work to consider the long-term impacts of
this will take place with any adjustment to assumed growth reported and applied. The
growth assessments carried out in this study do include an assumption of increased
home working (not Coronavirus-linked) in the future and it remains likely that the
expected rail growth will continue to be driven by many factors including mode shift to
rail and increasing population, which is particularly important in the Essex Thameside
area.
2.3 OPTIONS DEVELOPMENT
The study has identified and assessed The strategy options recommended in
various interventions, including rolling this study have placed an emphasis on
stock, infrastructure and signalling developing a staged or phased approach
enhancement options. One of the to delivering long-term capacity
options considered as part of this study is enhancements on this corridor so that
c2c’s operator-led proposal for capacity improvements can be achieved
implementation of European Train in the most efficient way.
Control System (ETCS) Level 2 signalling3
between London Fenchurch Street and It should be noted that the provision of
Upminster by 2025. additional infrastructure, for example,
additional tracks and passing loops, on
the approach to London Fenchurch
2 Potential industry growth where there are no limits to the operation of services.
3 European Train Control System (ETCS) Level 2 is a form of digital in-cab signalling which removes the need
for physical lineside signals. In-cab signalling provides continuous communication between track and train
removing the need for fixed blocks between physical signals. This results in more efficient network usage
and improved train performance. See more information on digital signalling at https:/digitalrailway.co.uk/
and https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/railway-upgrade-plan/digital-railway/
4
Street station has not been assessed in feasible due to physical constraints and
detail by this study as it is unlikely to be very significant cost associated with it.
2.3.1 SIGNALLING ENHANCEMENT
A long-term increase in capacity can be provide the greatest amount of short-
achieved by each of the options term capacity without reducing seating.
identified, including a signalling This could be delivered using ETCS, as per
headway improvement between part of c2c’s proposal, and would deliver
Upminster and Barking. A signalling the required capacity in the short-term
improvement and corresponding should it be deliverable by 2025.
increase in train service is likely to
2.3.2 TRAIN LENGTHENING
A short-term option is to lengthen all level of disruption to normal train
remaining 8-car services on the corridor services which would occur, require
to create a full 12-car operation. further investigation. There may also be
Although this option is considered more some negative operational implications
conventional due to its regular resulting from poorer punctuality due to
application as a capacity solution, and longer average running times for 12-car
likely to be lower in terms of cost than trains as well as increased likelihood of
signalling changes, it is not without other delay, particularly from on-train
infrastructure and operational equipment faults. Longer average
challenges. This includes the need for running times for 12-car trains may also
platform extensions at Grays and reduce the maximum possible frequency
Shoeburyness. The cost and detailed below 20 trains per hour, offsetting the
challenges which would be associated capacity gains which 12-car trains bring.
with delivering these enhancements, Further detail on these concerns are
including timescales for completion and highlighted in section 6.
2.3.3 INCREASED STANDING DENSITY ON TRAINS THROUGH FLEET
RECONFIGURATION
Reconfiguring the interior of trains to introduction of Class 700 rolling stock on
offer more standing room (at the Thameslink services, providing increased
expense of seating) has also been standing capacity compared to previous
assessed as an option. Converting all rolling stock. This is, however, not
trains operating in the high peak hour considered to be a desirable option by
would provide sufficient capacity for the some key stakeholders who participated
expected passenger growth in the in the development of this study,
medium-term and would be a relatively principally due to the negative passenger
straightforward option to deliver. A experience implications which increasing
recent example of such an option is the the rate of standing would bring.
5
2.3.4 STATIONS
Future passenger growth expected on Fenchurch Street and Barking by 2025,
this corridor is also expected to and at West Ham by 2027. Development
contribute to increased congestion and and delivery of significant station
crowding issues for at least three stations enhancements can take several years, so
on the corridor that will need to be it is important that consideration of
addressed in the short- to medium-term. potential options is given as soon as
At present, capacity enhancement possible.
schemes are required at London
2.3.5 FREIGHT
Growth in freight demand is forecast to cross-London freight amongst rising
be significant, however, it is not expected passenger demand.
that specific infrastructure upgrades on
the Essex Thameside corridor would be Decarbonisation of freight operations on
required to accommodate it. Freight to the corridor through increasing the
and from the Essex Thameside corridor ability for freight trains to be powered
must cross the North London orbital electrically is also an important long-term
routes, where capacity upgrades are aim. This may also provide improved
likely to be required to accommodate performance. Further electrification
long-term growth. The interfacing ‘infill’ is recommended, and it is currently
London Rail Freight Strategy is assessing being assessed through Network Rail’s
the strategy options to enable greater Traction Decarbonisation Network
Strategy.
2.4 RECOMMENDATIONS
The options identified in this study have c2c, has already undertaken initial
been proposed by Network Rail and development activity on an ETCS option.
informed by undertaking economic
growth, timetable and route capacity This study also seeks to establish wider
assessments. The options have been support from other Government
reviewed by the study’s ‘board’, which departments and sub-regional
includes the corridor’s principal train organisations for investment in this part
operator, c2c. It is recommended that of the rail network. An enhanced rail
these options are considered further network is critical to achieving the wider
under the Rail Network Enhancements growth objectives that are expected for
Pipeline. It is noted that the operator, this area.
6
3 THE ESSEX THAMESIDE CORRIDOR
This section describes the characteristics growth trends as well as upcoming
of the Essex Thameside corridor, committed rail schemes and third-party
including current level of service, recent developments.
3.1 RAIL INDUSTRY PLANNING
Greater devolution of economic For this study, Network Rail has worked
planning, transport planning and with its industry partners and
decision-making means that strategic stakeholders to:
planning of the railway involves a greater
level of complexity compared to plans • determine short- (2025), medium-
produced in the past. Network Rail has (2035) and long-term (2050)
previously published Route Studies, which passenger and freight growth
provided a high-level study of the rail forecasts for the corridor;
network across a whole region. For the
area including the Essex Thameside • identify the short-, medium- and
corridor, the last Route Study was long-term passenger and freight
published in 2016, and covered the service requirements to support this
whole Anglia Route, including the Great growth;
Eastern and West Anglia Main Lines, and
London Orbital routes, in addition to the • identify additional infrastructure that
Essex Thameside corridor. may be required to achieve these
requirements, and;
To become more focussed and targeted
in its long-term planning, Network Rail • identify station enhancements that
has recently changed its approach and may be required to safely
has commenced a programme of accommodate increasing passenger
Continuous Modular Strategic Planning numbers.
(CMSP), of which this study forms a part.
CMSP is more focussed on a specific area The production of a more focused study
of the rail network, so this study is able to such as this, provides greater ownership
provide a more detailed assessment of by key stakeholders bringing the case for
the Essex Thameside corridor than investment to Government and other
previous Route Studies. funders through the Rail Network
Enhancements Pipeline (RNEP).4
4For more information on the RNEP, see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rail-network-
enhancements-pipeline
7
3.2 GEOGRAPHY & SCOPE
The Essex Thameside corridor runs from These mostly consist of dense urban
London Fenchurch Street to environments close to the railway line,
Shoeburyness with a loop line between parallel running with parts of the London
Barking and Pitsea via Tilbury formed of Underground and Docklands Light
two tracks and a single line section Railway networks and most of the
between Upminster and Grays. These section between London Fenchurch
lines carry a mixture of commuter and Street and West Ham stations being
leisure traffic along with substantial elevated on a viaduct. Combined, these
freight movements to and from various factors severely restrict the opportunity
destinations, including the growing ports to construct additional infrastructure
at Tilbury and London Gateway. The between these points.
corridor is wholly electrified with
overhead line equipment with the Running west to east, the route
exception of some freight facilities. originates on the eastern edge of the
City of London, passing through four
The route suffers from several significant London Boroughs and four south Essex
physical constraints, especially between local authorities, as shown below in
Upminster and London Fenchurch Street. Figure 1.5
Figure 1 – A geographic representation of the Essex Thameside corridor, in purple, which connects key
population centres and freight sites in south Essex and east London.
5 The railway also forms the southern boundary of a fifth Essex local authority; Brentwood.
8
Figure 2 below shows a diagrammatic nationwide, far beyond the scope of this
representation of the Essex Thameside study, and Network Rail is currently
corridor, with the different parts of conducting other work to ensure that
corridor highlighted in different colours. future operational requirements for the
The orange dash indicates the western connecting cross-London routes are
extent of this study’s freight analysis, as identified.
far as Woodgrange Park Junction, where
freight traffic from Essex Thameside can The geographical scope of this study is
split between the two different North as per this diagram, and references to
London orbital routings. This has been the three different lines of the Essex
chosen as the most westerly point where Thameside corridor within this study
all freight traffic must pass through. It is refer to their representation on the
acknowledged that freight trains travel diagram.
Main Line
Tilbury Loop & Thames Haven
Branch
Ockendon Single Line
West extent of freight analysis
Figure 2 – A diagrammatic view of the Essex Thameside corridor, with its constituent lines distinguished
accordingly.
The corridor is largely separated from the District Line, as well as Limehouse for
rest of the Anglia Route,6 however it does Docklands Light Railway (DLR) services to
have key passenger interchanges with Bank. London Fenchurch Street is the
other rail lines, particularly Transport for only National Rail terminus in London
London-operated services at Barking and without a direct connection to the
West Ham. London Underground, but is a recognised
out-of-station interchange7 with the
Interchange is also possible at Upminster Circle and District Lines from Tower Hill.
for London Overground services to A diagram of these key interchanges is
Romford and for connection to the shown below at Figure 3.
6 Network Rail’s Anglia Route covers principally the rail network in the East of England.
7 See https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/publications-and-reports/out-of-station-interchanges for more
information.
9Figure 3 – Interchanges at the four inner stations (shown in bold) on the Essex Thameside corridor.
3.3 PASSENGER SERVICES
All passenger services along the corridor Patronage is dominated by traditional
are currently provided by the train peak hours commuter traffic to and from
operator, c2c, owned by Trenitalia UK. London Fenchurch Street and the train
The current off-peak passenger service in the peak is intensified
timetable operates trains from London significantly to cater for this demand,
Fenchurch Street to; culminating in 20 arrivals at London
Fenchurch Street between 0800 and
• Shoeburyness via Basildon – 4 trains 0859, and 19 departures from London
per hour (tph); Fenchurch Street between 1700 and
1759. Most services are operated with
• Southend Central via Ockendon – Class 357 rolling stock with two different
2tph, and; seating configurations, as shown in Table
1 below.
• Grays via Rainham – 2tph8
Total 4-car Total 8-car Total 12-car
Seats Standing
train capacity train capacity train capacity
4-Car Class
282 124 406 812 1,218
357
4-Car “Metro”
222 334 556 1,112 1,668
Class 357
Table 1 – Capacity of Class 357 rolling stock.
8 Note, morning high peak trains via Ockendon start at Grays and morning high peak trains via Rainham
start at Southend Central or Pitsea.
10The Class 357 fleet is currently in the All stations on the corridor are able to
middle of its design life and is not due for accommodate 12-car trains, with two
replacement until the mid-2030s. Six 4- notable exceptions – platform 3 at Grays
car Class 387 trains with a total 12-car and platform 3 at Shoeburyness. These
capacity of 1,128 each are also operated. shorter platforms place operational
The Class 387s will be replaced by new, constraints on the extent of 12-car
longer trains in 2021. services available. These issues are
described in full in section 6.
3.4 FREIGHT SERVICES
Essex Thameside is also a significant and to the Ford factory, arrives from Europe
complex freight corridor, generating via the Channel Tunnel Rail Link.
about 40-45 freight movements per day.
These freight trains transport a diverse All domestic services pass through
range of cargoes to and from various Barking and then west of Woodgrange
destinations along the corridor, including; Park Junction connect either with the line
to Gospel Oak or the North London Line
• maritime and domestic intermodal (after traversing the Great Eastern Main
freight handled at London Gateway, Line between Forest Gate Junction and
Tilbury, Barking and Purfleet; Stratford station). Any uplift in freight
traffic to and from Essex Thameside
• inbound bulk cement and crushed destinations would require consideration
rock for processing or distribution at of capacity on the north London routes
various aggregates facilities, plus (including the Great Eastern Main Line)
outbound marine-dredged sands and and beyond, in conjunction with any
gravels and recycled aggregate improvements on the Essex Thameside
substitutes; corridor itself, most notably in
connection with the high-frequency
• finished and semi-finished metals via London Overground service on the North
Tilbury, and; London Line. This will be explored as part
of the London Rail Freight Strategy,
• components and completed vehicles currently underway, and due to report
to and from the Ford factory in later in 2020. Figure 4 below shows the
Dagenham. connectivity from the Essex Thameside
corridor with the East Coast, Midland and
The majority of freight connectivity to West Coast Main Lines.
and from the Essex Thameside corridor is
with destinations in the Midlands and Due to gaps in electrification, most
northern England, although there is also freight services on the corridor are
some traffic to and from southern and hauled by diesel locomotives, despite the
western England, Wales and the Scottish key West and East Coast routes being
Central Belt. A proportion of the traffic able to cater for electric trains via both
arriving on the corridor, including imports north London routes.
11Figure 4 – Freight connectivity across North London from the Essex Thameside route, with key locations.
123.5 RECENT GROWTH – PASSENGER 9
Passenger numbers have been increasing This growth has been consistent and has
on the Essex Thameside corridor over the begun to differ from the national picture
last decade. Figure 5 below shows the in recent years. Growth was closely
total numbers of passenger journeys aligned to the national trend up to
travelling on c2c services each year 2015/16, however where the national
between 2011/12 and 2018/19, growing rate of growth began to reduce after
by approximately 34.9% between these 2015/16, the number of passengers on
dates. This equates to an average 5.1% Essex Thameside has continued to
year-on-year growth rate. increase at a relatively consistent rate, as
illustrated in Figure 6.
50 40%
Cumulative Growth since 2011/12
Total c2c passengers (millions)
35%
45 30%
25%
40 20%
15%
35 10%
5%
30
0%
25
c2c National
Figure 5 – Total c2c passengers (millions) Figure 6 – Growth in c2c and National passenger
2011/12 – 2018/19. numbers since 2011/12.
Over the last decade passenger footfall 20
Annual Entries & Exits - Millions
has increased significantly at Barking 18
16
and West Ham, as indicated by Figure 7 14
opposite. These two stations offer the 12
10
greatest opportunity for interchange 8
with the TfL network. London Fenchurch 6
4
Street has seen relatively modest 2
growth, albeit from a much higher base. 0
Figure 7 – Total Entries & Exits
(National Rail) at Barking, West Ham Barking West Ham
and London Fenchurch Street Fenchurch Street
2009/10 – 2018/19.
9 All graph data from ORR Data Portal
13National Rail statistics do not reveal the below in Table 2. These show high
whole picture at West Ham and Barking growth trends at West Ham, in particular,
as London Underground and Docklands over a similar period, although National
Light Railway station usage statistics are Rail growth figures are much higher than
recorded separately. These are shown both TfL modes at both stations.
West Ham Barking
National Rail LU DLR National Rail LU
Users (millions) Users (millions) Users (millions) Users (millions) Users (millions)
2012 4.1 3.3 2.4 8.1 14.5
2013 3.7 3.4 2.0 8.3 15.2
2014 5.3 3.5 2.2 9.7 15.6
2015 8.8 3.8 2.8 13.4 16.1
2016 10.6 3.5 3.1 12.8 15.9
2017 10.6 4.4 3.3 13.5 18.2
2018 10.7 4.4 3.5 14.5 16.8
% chg
since + 164.2% + 34.1% + 42.0% + 79.0% + 15.7%
2012
Notes:
National Rail figures from ORR estimates of station usage statistics.
LU and DLR figures from TfL statistics.
National Rail figures for Barking also include estimates for London Overground’s Gospel Oak-Barking service
Table 2 – Annual entries and exits at West Ham and Barking stations by rail mode.
This increase in passenger usage, interchange pattern at Barking,
particularly at West Ham and Barking increasing pressure on the footbridge.
stations, has increased pressure on
operations at peak times. West Ham Between 2011 and 2018, total daily
experiences heavy demand in the numbers of passengers arriving at
morning peak hours from passengers London Fenchurch Street in the three-
interchanging from c2c services onto the hour morning peak (07:00-09:59)
Jubilee Line, with Barking experiencing increased by almost 7%,10 suggesting an
similar issues from passengers changing increase in the number of commuters to
from the District Line to c2c services. The central London jobs. The central London
reverse happens at both stations in the employment rate is, however, just one
evening peak hours. factor that could have influenced growth
in rail usage along the Essex Thameside
These flows lead to overcrowding on the corridor as the growth rate at London
narrow stairs to/from the c2c platforms Fenchurch Street is much lower than the
at West Ham with people queuing on the overall c2c growth rate over the same
platform in the morning peak, and high period (34.9%) and the growth in central
volumes of passengers on the footbridge London employment (13%). This
at Barking. The Barking Riverside suggests that there are other factors
extension of the London Overground is influencing rail demand in this region,
expected to add more complexity to the most likely employment growth in other
areas of London, such as Canary Wharf
10 DfT
14or Stratford. Both of these hubs benefit continue developing with an associated
from connectivity via the Jubilee Line increase in employment opportunities.
from West Ham and are forecast to
3.5.1 POPULATION FORECASTS 11
Between 2010 and 2016, working age significant growth over the next 20 years.
population (ages 16-64) in the South Growth in the London Borough of
Essex and East London local authority Havering is projected to outstrip
areas served by the Essex Thameside Newham from the mid-2020s, with
corridor grew by an average of 6.6%. 22.2% growth expected by 2040.
This growth was primarily in the London Average 16-64 population growth across
Boroughs of Newham and Barking & the corridor between 2016 and 2040 is
Dagenham, which grew by 15.9% and projected to be 15.9%.
13.4% respectively. Outside of London,
Thurrock grew the most at 4.2%. Castle Point is the only local authority
area where working age population
Future forecast projections remain high declined between 2010-2016, and up to
in these areas with Barking & Dagenham 2040 registers low growth of 1.9%.
(27.9%), Newham (15.0%) and Thurrock Figure 8 below shows the forecast for
(18.3%) each forecasted to have each area.
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
-5.0%
Brentwood Thurrock Basildon
Castle Point Southend-on-Sea Havering
Barking and Dagenham Newham South Essex Average
East London
Greater Boroughs
London Average
Average
Figure 8 – Projected population change by local authority area over the next 20 years.
11 Office for National Statistics
153.6 RECENT GROWTH – FREIGHT
Nationally, over the last decade, the key Statistics at a more localised level are
intermodal and construction materials difficult to compile accurately due to the
markets – the core commodities hauled nature of the national freight market,
nationally, and on the Essex Thameside however, two key developments have
corridor – have grown by 22% and 30% significantly increased the freight
respectively. Intermodal container traffic handling potential of the corridor in
(including international) has grown from recent years.
15.2 million tonnes hauled in 2009/10 to
18.6m tonnes in 2018/19. Haulage of London Gateway port opened in
construction materials has grown from November 2013, complete with a rail
17.2m tonnes in 2009/10 to 22.3m freight terminal, vastly increasing the
tonnes in 2018/19 with a peak in international container handling
2016/17 of 24.3m tonnes. The trends potential of the south Essex coast and
over the last decade can be seen below contributing significantly to the growth
at Figure 9. in the freight traffic on the corridor. The
port is not yet operating at its maximum
26 capacity, currently operating three berths
24 for ships to dock. A further three berths
Million tonnes per year
22 and a second rail terminal are able to be
20 developed in the future, subject to
18 demand.
16
14 In addition, DB Cargo’s Barking Eurohub
12 has also been developed, offering direct
10 access to HS1 and providing an interface
between the varying maximum loading
gauges between Great Britain and
Intermodal Construction Materials
Europe, although demand for continental
rail freight remains low at this time.
Figure 9 – The two main freight types carried
nationally have seen moderate growth over the
last decade.12
12 Network Rail freight forecasts: Scenarios for 2033/34 & 2043/44
163.7 COMMITTED SCHEMES
There are several rail enhancement the Essex Thameside corridor. All of these
programmes and significant third-party projects have completion dates in the
developments currently ongoing or early/mid-2020s and are included in this
committed which will have an impact on study’s baseline growth forecasts.
3.7.1 BARKING RIVERSIDE
Barking Riverside is a large mixed-use extended to serve this new station and is
development in Barking, being built on expected to begin in January 2022 with
brownfield land formerly occupied by a frequency of 4tph. New, longer, 4-car
Barking Power Station adjacent to the Class 710 electric trains began operation
River Thames. The site has planning in mid-2019 on the existing Gospel Oak
permission for 10,900 homes and to Barking section, replacing the 2-car
associated commercial and community diesel trains used prior to electrification.
facilities. The development also features Land has been safeguarded for a station
a new station, accessed on new west of Renwick Road, however there are
infrastructure. no plans to develop the proposal at this
time.
The current London Overground service
from Gospel Oak to Barking will be
3.7.2 BEAM PARK STATION
Beam Park is a station currently in peak service frequency provided by c2c
development to be sited between to London Fenchurch Street of 4tph and
Rainham and Dagenham Dock stations an off-peak service frequency of 2tph.
on the Tilbury Loop. The station is Further parcels of nearby land are
proposed to serve a new housing expected to be developed after the initial
development of 3,000 homes and is 3,000 homes.
expected to open in May 2022 with a
3.7.3 NEW C2C TRAINS
c2c will introduce longer trains to aid ahead of the originally planned date of
peak demand in the short-term. This will 2024. These trains will replace six 4-car
consist of six 10-car Bombardier Aventra Class 387 trains, providing an increase in
trains, expected to be in service in 2021, train capacity in the peak hours.
3.7.4 FOUR LINES MODERNISATION (‘4LM’)
London Underground is currently increase capacity and improve journey
undertaking a programme of works to times on its Circle, District, Hammersmith
17& City and Metropolitan Lines. The Upminster and West Ham will see a
current peak hours service to Barking is significant service frequency
24tph, with 12 continuing to Upminster. enhancement. However, this isn’t
This is planned to increase to 32tph to expected to result in any notable
Barking with 16 continuing to Upminster. abstraction of passengers from c2c
services onto LU services due to the
As a result, LU passengers travelling on quicker journey times available on c2c
the sections of the District and trains. Completion of the 4LM
Hammersmith & City Lines which run in programme is scheduled for May 2023.
parallel with c2c services between
3.7.5 NEW DLR TRAINS AND SERVICE ENHANCEMENTS
New walk-through trains are The peak service frequency from
programmed to operate across the DLR Stratford International to Woolwich
from 2024. These trains will be 90m long Arsenal via London City Airport will be
and in a fixed formation, replacing trains doubled from 7.5tph to 15tph. A new
made up of two or three separate 30m service from Stratford International to
units with no ability for passengers to Beckton will also be introduced with a
move between them. The walk-through peak frequency of 7.5tph, bringing the
formation will offer greater capacity and total peak hours frequency via West Ham
allow passengers to distribute more up from 7.5tph today to 22.5tph. The
easily along the full length of the train. service frequencies to Bank and Tower
Forty-three new trains will be introduced, Gateway via Limehouse will not change.
working alongside existing rolling stock
and replacing some of the oldest trains
operating across the network.
3.7.6 TILBURY2
The Port of Tilbury has recently intermodal container traffic. The facility
expanded onto brownfield land to the commenced operations in summer 2020,
east of its existing site. A new rail with the freight terminal expected to
terminal capable of handling 775m open before the end of the year. Once
trains is under construction and is operational it is expected to generate in
expected to primarily handle the region of eight additional freight
construction materials and bulk train circulations per day across
aggregates as well as some domestic intermodal and bulk handling activities.
3.7.7 STEPHENSON STREET DEVELOPMENT & WEST HAM STATION
Planning permission has been granted formerly occupied by a Parcelforce depot.
for a large, high-rise development on The Stephenson Street development will
land adjacent to West Ham station deliver 3,800 new homes, commercial
18and community space, as well as a new The new station entrance is expected to
entrance to West Ham station, linking open in autumn 2022.
the development directly with the station
on the bridge above the Jubilee Line.
3.7.8 PURFLEET CENTRE REGENERATION
Outline planning permission has been adjacent level crossing on London Road,
granted for the redevelopment of replacing it with a bridge. The first phase,
Purfleet town centre, focussed around including around 1,000 homes, is
the existing railway station. The expected to be complete by April 2023.
proposed redevelopment includes up to Planning conditions specify that the
2,800 new homes, new community bridge and station must be completed
facilities, business and leisure space, prior to certain residential or commercial
including 135,000m² of film and TV elements of the scheme, however, a
studios. The masterplan also aims to delivery date is not confirmed at this
redevelop the station and close the stage.
3.7.9 GRAYS STATION AND LEVEL CROSSING
Thurrock Council, Network Rail and c2c The scheme is likely to require the
are currently developing a proposal to realignment of Crown Road on the north
close Grays High Street Level Crossing. side of the railway and reconfiguration
This pedestrian only crossing, adjacent to of the adjacent station drop-off and taxi
Grays station sees high levels of misuse, facilities. The project is currently
and its replacement with an underpass is undergoing option selection, with a
expected to improve the safety and target delivery date in 2024.
performance of this part of the network.
3.7.10 STANFORD-LE-HOPE STATION
Stanford-le-Hope station on the Tilbury access and improved cycle parking and
Loop is currently being redeveloped by bus interchange. The new station
Thurrock Council and c2c to provide a facilities are due to open in May 2021.
new modern station entrance, step-free
19Figure 10 below indicates the current expected completion dates for the projects listed
above on the Essex Thameside corridor and interfacing TfL network.
Figure 10 – Current expected delivery timeline of committed enhancements and developments. Note, arrows
indicate onward phased delivery of housing.
3.8 UNCOMMITTED SCHEMES AND ASPIRATIONS
As well as committed schemes there are upon passenger and freight services on
a number of proposals in development the Essex Thameside corridor.
which, if delivered, would have an impact
3.8.1 C2C EUROPEAN TRAIN CONTROL SYSTEM (ETCS) PROPOSAL
c2c has developed a business case for capacity for passengers until 2035. The
the introduction of ETCS Level 2 digital proposed signalling would have the
signalling. c2c’s aspiration is to introduce capability to increase train frequency up
a 24tph high peak hour timetable from to 28tph (subject to other required
May 2025, which, with a further enhancements). This study has worked
introduction of rolling stock is projected with c2c to establish this as an option for
to be able to provide sufficient network accommodating future growth.
3.8.2 RIPPLE LANE NODAL YARD
Ripple Lane West Yard is an existing a nodal yard to enable it to
freight yard between Barking and accommodate 775m freight trains, GB2
Dagenham Dock on the Tilbury Loop. gauge freight from HS1, and provide a
The yard is planned to be enhanced into regulation point between the Tilbury
20Loop and the London orbital routes, capacity is best utilised and enable route
maximising freight capacity within the performance to be better managed at a
parameters of existing interfacing key location before joining the busy
passenger timetables. London orbital network at Barking. The
project is currently in the Design/Final
It is important to note that the Business Case phase of the Rail Network
enhancement to the yard will not provide Enhancement Pipeline and a Decision to
additional on-network capacity, as Deliver is expected in 2020. If approved,
infrastructure enhancements would also the scheme is expected to be delivered in
be required elsewhere to support this. Control Period 6 (CP6, 2019-2024).
Rather, it will help to ensure that existing
3.8.3 BARKING STATION ACCESS FOR ALL BID
The DfT’s Access for All (AfA) launch, over 150 stations have benefited
programme was launched in 2006 to from the scheme. In 2018, c2c submitted
address the issues faced by disabled a bid to improve Barking station from the
passengers and passengers facing CP6 fund. This bid was unsuccessful,
mobility restraints (such as heavy however the concept designs proposed in
luggage or pushchairs) when using the bid have been considered under this
railway stations in Great Britain. Since its study.
3.8.4 LONG-TERM DLR ASPIRATIONS
A long-term aspiration exists to extend along with a potential to connect this
the DLR to Thamesmead and Belvedere, extension northwards to Barking station,
south of the River Thames, via a new opening up more interchange
tunnel or bridge from Gallions Reach, opportunities.
3.8.5 JUBILEE LINE OPTIMISATION
Signalling improvements on the Jubilee interchanging at West Ham during peak
Line has enabled the maximum train hours. It may be possible to increase
frequency from Stratford to be increased frequency up to 32tph, subject to further
from 24tph to 30tph, which improves improvements.
capacity for Essex Thameside passengers
3.8.6 BARKING REGENERATION PROPOSALS
BeFirst, a regeneration company wholly When options presented by this study
owned by the London Borough of are taken forward into further
Barking and Dagenham, is currently development, an investigation into the
developing a masterplan for the town viability of incorporating capacity
centre surrounding Barking station. enhancements at Barking station with
21commercial opportunities is than a purely station-based intervention
recommended. However, funders should and that long lead times for developing a
be mindful that the timeframe for commercial opportunity should not
designing and building a development of jeopardise safe and efficient station
this nature could take significantly longer operation.
3.8.7 REDEVELOPMENT PROPOSALS
At least two large scale planning commercial and industrial facilities,
applications are currently under including a rail terminal. If this
consideration by Thurrock Council, which application proceeds, this could increase
could increase residential and rail freight traffic to and from the Essex
commercial activity in the area. The Thameside corridor.
Arena Essex application proposes up to
2,500 homes near to Chafford Hundred Brentwood Borough Council is also
station and the Lakeside Shopping promoting significant new housing
Centre. If this application was approved, developments in the south of the
this could increase passenger demand at borough near the Essex Thameside
Chafford Hundred station. corridor, including the Dunton Hills
Garden Village. This site, to the north
Secondly, the Thames Enterprise Park east of West Horndon station could
proposal promotes a phased developed to include up to 4,000 new
redevelopment of the former Coryton Oil homes. It is proposed that West Horndon
Refinery, beyond London Gateway port station would be improved along with
at the end of the Thames Haven branch these housing developments, improving
line to provide up to 480,000m2 of car, bus and cycle access.
3.8.8 MINOR STATION ENHANCEMENT PROPOSALS
Previous studies have highlighted an improve access to and from the island
opportunity to install a second gateline platform in the short-term.
at Barking station near to the stairs to
platforms 5/6 and 7/8. Although this is a As neither of these proposals are
minor proposal, a second gateline at committed, they have not been used in
Barking station could bring an this study’s baseline for future station
improvement in passenger flow at the capacity modelling, however the
station entrance and ease congestion on proposed layouts have been tested as a
the footbridge. c2c has also raised the sensitivity to understand their likely
prospect of installing an escalator at effectiveness in relieving passenger
West Ham to relieve crowding and congestion and viability as short-term
enhancement options.
223.8.9 RAIL FREIGHT ELECTRIFICATION
Network Rail’s 2017 Freight Network (the Tottenham North Curve between
Study highlighted gaps in capability for Junction Road Junction and Carlton Road
running electric freight trains on this part Junction) prevents use of electric traction
of the network. Despite the Essex between Essex Thameside locations and
Thameside corridor and its connections the Midland Main Line. Several other
to the Great Eastern Main Line (including similar examples exist outside of London.
the onward connection to the North If these gaps in electrification could be
London Line) and Gospel Oak-Barking bridged then this could contribute to the
Line being electrified, allowing full use of decarbonisation of rail freight in this
electric passenger trains, the 2.5 mile region.
Thames Haven branch line to London
Gateway port is unelectrified, preventing Network Rail’s Traction Decarbonisation
the use of electric freight locomotives. It Network Strategy is likely to propose the
is also worth noting that electrification of electrification of some of these gaps.
several other lines and terminals across Given their relatively short lengths and
the country would need to be completed potential to realise an increase in the
to unlock more end-to-end electrically- number of electrically hauled services
hauled freight journeys. In London, the they are likely to be identified as a high
0.7 mile connection from the Gospel Oak- priority for delivery.
Barking Line to the Midland Main Line
234 STUDY APPROACH
The study commenced in spring 2019 and with support from industry partners, sought to
answer the following key question;
What interventions are required to support the expected growth in passenger
and freight services in the Essex Thameside area over the next 30 years?
Passenger and freight demand over the passenger journeys upon the three key
next 30 years has been forecasted and stations has also been assessed and
solutions to increase capacity have been suitable proposals from existing source
identified. Impacts of increased material have been investigated further.
4.1 STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
Network Rail agreed with its stakeholders at the outset of the study five Strategic
Questions to understand these required interventions. These questions are;
SQ1: What is the expected growth in passenger demand over the next 30 years and
what challenges does this present?
SQ2: What interventions are required to provide sufficient capacity post-2035, when
the capacity provided by the initial ETCS proposal is expected to be exhausted?
SQ3: What are the capacity challenges at the three ‘key stations’ and how can these
be addressed?
SQ4: What is the expected future growth in rail freight to and from Essex Thameside
destinations and how can this be supported?
SQ5: Should the ETCS proposal not proceed, what other options exist to increase
capacity in the long-term?
244.2 METHODOLOGY
The broad methodology used in the study to answer the Strategic Questions is shown in
the diagram below;
Economic Analysis Train Service Analysis & Recommendations
Station Capacity Analysis
Establish passenger and Advise what enhancement
freight growth profiles Conduct assessment into options exist in the short-,
on the corridor infrastructure and station medium- and long-term
enhancement options
As outlined above, for passenger services, enhancement. Where necessary, the
the Essex Thameside corridor is primarily most suitable locations for infrastructure
a commuter railway. The study has, enhancements to support improved
therefore, focussed on ensuring that services have been identified. Current
traditional peak hours passenger services committed schemes identified above
continue to have enough capacity in the have been included in the baseline
long-term, while also assuring that analysis for this study.
increasing freight demand can be
accommodated during the off-peak While concepts for station
hours. enhancements normally wouldn’t be
presented at this stage of study, several
Network Rail has forecasted demand for recent reports regarding options for
passenger services in the short-, enhancement at West Ham and Barking
medium-, and long-term. Recent national stations exist. As there is an opportunity
freight forecasts have been assessed to to use this source material as part of this
identify whether any infrastructure study, Network Rail and stakeholders
changes are needed to support freight have selected suitable concepts from
growth. Timetables, rolling stock these existing reports to be modelled for
formations and infrastructure pedestrian capacity following the
capabilities have been analysed to outputs of demand forecasting.
understand opportunities for efficient
4.3 STUDY PLANNING HORIZON
Network Rail and stakeholders have c2c’s proposed introduction date of a
chosen to assess the corridor at three 24tph timetable under ETCS to make it
reference years in order to present a possible to draw comparisons with
staged, short-, medium- and long-term alternative options. The long-term, 2050
picture of the corridor. These years are horizon was chosen as the current extent
2025, 2035 and 2050. The short-term of long-range forecasting offered by
horizon of 2025 was chosen to mirror TfL’s Railplan model. 2035 is a central,
25medium-term horizon, which also aligns interventions beyond the original ETCS
with the projection c2c has made proposal, as well as a second horizon for
regarding the longevity of its proposed considering other capacity enhancement
24tph timetable. This is, therefore, an options.
ideal medium-term year to propose
4.4 GOVERNANCE
This study has used a similar governance Focussed workshops were held to develop
methodology to other studies recently understanding and inform decisions on
completed. The study has been freight and stations matters, and to
facilitated by Network Rail and was establish understanding of planned
primarily supported by a study board enhancements on the TfL network. This
consisting of stakeholders from the study also had input from the Rail
region, as well as the Department for Freight Group. Freight operators have
Transport and Transport for London. The been engaged in the study through the
board agreed the scope of the Strategic London Rail Freight Strategy working
Questions and had a role in selecting and group and have been consulted on the
reviewing strategy and enhancement findings of the rail freight workshop.
concepts developed by Network Rail.
Study Board Members
Network Rail Essex County Council
c2c Thurrock Council
Transport for London Southend-on-Sea Borough Council
Department for Transport Opportunity South Essex
Rail Delivery Group Association of South Essex Local Authorities
South East Local Enterprise Partnership
265 LONG-TERM GROWTH ASSESSMENT
This section presents Network Rail’s view in turn below. This section also describes
of growth in both passenger and freight the likely impact of this growth upon
demand on the corridor and sets out the stations. A single, central passenger
shortfall in the number of passenger forecast was produced for this study,
carriages on the network in the morning however, a sensitivity test of higher
high peak as well as the total number of growth across the corridor has been
freight paths per hour recommended in applied and the effect of this is set out in
the off-peak. Growth forecasts for each the final section of this document.
have been conducted and are discussed
5.1 GROWTH ASSESSMENT – PASSENGER
The assessment of passenger growth has for years 2031 and 2050, and
been based on Transport for London’s interpolated to reflect this study’s
Railplan model. Railplan was used to reference years of 2025, 2035 and 2050.
forecast passenger demand for morning The number of additional carriages
peak c2c services arriving at London required on top of expected future
Fenchurch Street between 07:00-09:59. capacity was calculated.
Railplan outputs were used to calculate Table 3 below shows the average growth
the growth in the number of passengers (from a 2018 base) in high peak
travelling between each adjacent pair of passengers across the Essex Thameside
stations, or ‘arc’. Future demand was corridor in each of this study’s reference
compared to expected future capacity to years, as well as the growth at the
determine levels of crowding including busiest point on the corridor between
standing density. Demand was forecast Barking and West Ham.
2025 2035 2050
Average Corridor Growth Rate 9% 20% 35%
Growth at Critical Load Point
11% 25% 42%
(Barking – West Ham)
Table 3 – Forecast growth rates on the Essex Thameside corridor.
These growth rates represent an increase rate is lower than the average of all
of approximately 1.2% per year across routes into London, it was agreed that as
the whole corridor and approximately a sensitivity test, the high-level impacts
1.6% per year at the critical load point of higher growth scenario would be
by 2025, and an average 2018-2050 rate established to understand how much
of 0.9%, and 1.1% at the critical load sooner interventions would be needed if
point. These rates were endorsed by the a higher rate of growth is realised. This is
study’s board, however as this growth set out in the final section.
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