ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY - Railway investment choices July 2020 - Network Rail

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ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY - Railway investment choices July 2020 - Network Rail
ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY
Railway investment choices

July 2020
ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY - Railway investment choices July 2020 - Network Rail
CONTENTS
1   Foreword .......................................................................................................................................... 2
2   Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 3
         2.1         The Need for a Study............................................................................................................3
         2.2         Expected Growth ....................................................................................................................3
         2.3         Options Development ..........................................................................................................4
         2.4         Recommendations .................................................................................................................6
3   The Essex Thameside Corridor ................................................................................................. 7
         3.1         Rail Industry Planning ..........................................................................................................7
         3.2         Geography & Scope...............................................................................................................8
         3.3         Passenger Services .............................................................................................................. 10
         3.4         Freight Services .................................................................................................................... 11
         3.5         Recent Growth – Passenger ............................................................................................ 13
         3.6         Recent Growth – Freight .................................................................................................. 16
         3.7         Committed Schemes.......................................................................................................... 17
         3.8         Uncommitted Schemes and Aspirations .................................................................. 20
4   Study Approach .......................................................................................................................... 24
         4.1         Strategic Questions ............................................................................................................ 24
         4.2         Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 25
         4.3         Study Planning Horizon .................................................................................................... 25
         4.4         Governance ............................................................................................................................ 26
5   Long-Term Growth Assessment ............................................................................................ 27
         5.1         Growth Assessment – Passenger .................................................................................. 27
         5.2         Growth Assessment – Freight ........................................................................................ 35
         5.3         Impact on Stations ............................................................................................................. 37
6   Meeting the Forecast Demand ............................................................................................. 42
         6.1         Network Capability and Capacity – Passenger ...................................................... 42
         6.2         Priority Station Interventions ........................................................................................ 53
         6.3         Other Station Interventions ........................................................................................... 62
         6.4         Network Capability and Capacity – Freight ............................................................ 63
         6.5         Level Crossings ...................................................................................................................... 65
7   Strategy Options ........................................................................................................................ 67
         7.1         Responses to the Strategic Questions ........................................................................ 67
         7.2         Summary of Options .......................................................................................................... 68
         7.3         Higher Growth ...................................................................................................................... 73
         7.4         Recommendations for Further Study ......................................................................... 74

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ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY - Railway investment choices July 2020 - Network Rail
1      FOREWORD
The Essex Thameside corridor is a key rail     area including the train operator, c2c, the
route into London on the north Thames          Department for Transport, Transport for
estuary serving key towns such as              London, Essex County Council and the
Southend-on-Sea, Basildon, Grays and           Association of South Essex Local
Tilbury as well as large catchments in         Authorities, who have formed part of the
East London in areas such as Barking and       study’s ‘board’.
Dagenham. Although relatively small and
quite self-contained compared to many          Although a broad ranging study, it has
other routes into London, the challenges       focussed on long-term capacity and has
that it faces in the future are significant.   assessed the corridor under the overall
Population growth in this area is              question of ‘What interventions are
expected to be one of the highest in the       required to support the expected growth
country and, alongside expected growth         in passenger and freight services in the
in freight handling along the corridor, the    Essex Thameside area over the next 30
solutions for meeting this growth are          years?’. This was supported by five sub-
particularly challenging.                      questions to help establish the required
                                               infrastructure and station interventions
This study seeks to identify the               to support demand for passenger and
generational challenge related to growth       freight services in the long-term.
by assessing forecast passenger and
freight growth over the next 30 years. It      The publication of this study is expected
identifies a series of potential               to be the start of further consideration of
infrastructure and station improvements        enhancement options for this corridor.
to help funders make informed decisions        These options will provide rail investment
about enhancing this part of the national      choices for the Secretary of State for
rail network.                                  Transport through the Department for
                                               Transport and Network Rail’s investment
The study builds upon the findings of the      pipeline. The study will also provide
2016 Anglia Route Study and forms part         guidance to other Government
of Network Rail’s programme of                 departments and sub-regional
Continuous Modular Strategic Planning          organisations on how this part of the rail
(CMSP). The study has been facilitated         network could develop to meet the
by Network Rail, developed in                  employment and population growth
partnership with key organisations in the      expectations for this area.

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ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY - Railway investment choices July 2020 - Network Rail
2          EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This study seeks to inform long-term                        which will help determine what
investment choices for this strategically                   infrastructure and station interventions
important south Essex corridor. It                          may be required on this corridor over the
assesses a number of Strategic                              next generation.1
Questions, the answers and outputs to

2.1        THE NEED FOR A STUDY

Conducting this study was considered a                          signalling solutions. This study
priority for several reasons:                                   complements this work, considering
                                                                all capacity options and a longer
•     the pressures on this corridor from                       planning horizon for the period up to
      both passenger and freight demand                         2050.
      are set to grow significantly over the
      next few decades due to housing and                   •   recent studies have highlighted
      population growth, the growth of                          pedestrian capacity pressures at
      London Gateway and Tilbury ports,                         London Fenchurch Street, West Ham
      and regeneration proposals                                and Barking stations. This study
      (including new stations) opening up                       considers these findings in one place,
      new markets to travel.                                    assesses their recommendations and
                                                                presents the most valuable options
•     the 2016 Anglia Route Study                               for further investigation in light of
      identified several interventions for                      refreshed demand forecasts.
      this part of the route but did not
      develop these recommendations. The                    •   studies are being completed for the
      core recommendation of introducing                        other two key main lines on the
      some longer trains in the short-term                      Anglia route, i.e. the Great Eastern
      will be implemented in 2021.                              Main Line (GEML) and the West
                                                                Anglia Main Line (WAML). An
•     the Train Operating Company (TOC),                        equivalent study for Essex Thameside
      c2c, which is currently franchised to                     ensures that all three main corridors
      operate passenger services along the                      have been subject to a detailed
      corridor until 2029, has commenced                        assessment of future options.
      development work into digital

2.2        EXPECTED GROWTH

Overall passenger demand in the high                        with growth at the critical load point
peak is projected to grow 35% by 2050,                      (between Barking and West Ham) being

1   Assumed to be 30 years for the purpose of this study.
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ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY - Railway investment choices July 2020 - Network Rail
approximately 42%, from a 2018 base.                      combined with high population growth
In the short-term, 9% growth is expected                  expected in east London boroughs and
by 2025 which is likely to result in                      Thurrock.
capacity challenges on parts of the
corridor, particularly between Barking                    Growth in rail freight is also projected to
and West Ham, and on both lines                           be strong, with unconstrained2 demand
immediately east of Upminster. This                       forecasted to increase four-fold by 2043,
growth in demand is primarily driven by                   primarily driven by the key intermodal
growth in Central London employment                       and bulk aggregates markets.

    Coronavirus (Covid-19) Impact

    It is recognised that, as of April 2020, passenger demand has fallen sharply as a result
    of the Coronavirus pandemic.

    The growth forecasts for both passenger and freight were carried out in 2019 before the
    pandemic and its restrictions started. Further work to consider the long-term impacts of
    this will take place with any adjustment to assumed growth reported and applied. The
    growth assessments carried out in this study do include an assumption of increased
    home working (not Coronavirus-linked) in the future and it remains likely that the
    expected rail growth will continue to be driven by many factors including mode shift to
    rail and increasing population, which is particularly important in the Essex Thameside
    area.

2.3       OPTIONS DEVELOPMENT

The study has identified and assessed                     The strategy options recommended in
various interventions, including rolling                  this study have placed an emphasis on
stock, infrastructure and signalling                      developing a staged or phased approach
enhancement options. One of the                           to delivering long-term capacity
options considered as part of this study is               enhancements on this corridor so that
c2c’s operator-led proposal for                           capacity improvements can be achieved
implementation of European Train                          in the most efficient way.
Control System (ETCS) Level 2 signalling3
between London Fenchurch Street and                       It should be noted that the provision of
Upminster by 2025.                                        additional infrastructure, for example,
                                                          additional tracks and passing loops, on
                                                          the approach to London Fenchurch

2 Potential industry growth where there are no limits to the operation of services.
3 European Train Control System (ETCS) Level 2 is a form of digital in-cab signalling which removes the need
for physical lineside signals. In-cab signalling provides continuous communication between track and train
removing the need for fixed blocks between physical signals. This results in more efficient network usage
and improved train performance. See more information on digital signalling at https:/digitalrailway.co.uk/
and https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/railway-upgrade-plan/digital-railway/
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ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY - Railway investment choices July 2020 - Network Rail
Street station has not been assessed in        feasible due to physical constraints and
detail by this study as it is unlikely to be   very significant cost associated with it.

2.3.1 SIGNALLING ENHANCEMENT

A long-term increase in capacity can be        provide the greatest amount of short-
achieved by each of the options                term capacity without reducing seating.
identified, including a signalling             This could be delivered using ETCS, as per
headway improvement between                    part of c2c’s proposal, and would deliver
Upminster and Barking. A signalling            the required capacity in the short-term
improvement and corresponding                  should it be deliverable by 2025.
increase in train service is likely to

2.3.2 TRAIN LENGTHENING

A short-term option is to lengthen all         level of disruption to normal train
remaining 8-car services on the corridor       services which would occur, require
to create a full 12-car operation.             further investigation. There may also be
Although this option is considered more        some negative operational implications
conventional due to its regular                resulting from poorer punctuality due to
application as a capacity solution, and        longer average running times for 12-car
likely to be lower in terms of cost than       trains as well as increased likelihood of
signalling changes, it is not without other    delay, particularly from on-train
infrastructure and operational                 equipment faults. Longer average
challenges. This includes the need for         running times for 12-car trains may also
platform extensions at Grays and               reduce the maximum possible frequency
Shoeburyness. The cost and detailed            below 20 trains per hour, offsetting the
challenges which would be associated           capacity gains which 12-car trains bring.
with delivering these enhancements,            Further detail on these concerns are
including timescales for completion and        highlighted in section 6.

2.3.3 INCREASED STANDING DENSITY ON TRAINS THROUGH FLEET
      RECONFIGURATION

Reconfiguring the interior of trains to        introduction of Class 700 rolling stock on
offer more standing room (at the               Thameslink services, providing increased
expense of seating) has also been              standing capacity compared to previous
assessed as an option. Converting all          rolling stock. This is, however, not
trains operating in the high peak hour         considered to be a desirable option by
would provide sufficient capacity for the      some key stakeholders who participated
expected passenger growth in the               in the development of this study,
medium-term and would be a relatively          principally due to the negative passenger
straightforward option to deliver. A           experience implications which increasing
recent example of such an option is the        the rate of standing would bring.

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ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY - Railway investment choices July 2020 - Network Rail
2.3.4 STATIONS

Future passenger growth expected on           Fenchurch Street and Barking by 2025,
this corridor is also expected to             and at West Ham by 2027. Development
contribute to increased congestion and        and delivery of significant station
crowding issues for at least three stations   enhancements can take several years, so
on the corridor that will need to be          it is important that consideration of
addressed in the short- to medium-term.       potential options is given as soon as
At present, capacity enhancement              possible.
schemes are required at London

2.3.5 FREIGHT

Growth in freight demand is forecast to       cross-London freight amongst rising
be significant, however, it is not expected   passenger demand.
that specific infrastructure upgrades on
the Essex Thameside corridor would be         Decarbonisation of freight operations on
required to accommodate it. Freight to        the corridor through increasing the
and from the Essex Thameside corridor         ability for freight trains to be powered
must cross the North London orbital           electrically is also an important long-term
routes, where capacity upgrades are           aim. This may also provide improved
likely to be required to accommodate          performance. Further electrification
long-term growth. The interfacing             ‘infill’ is recommended, and it is currently
London Rail Freight Strategy is assessing     being assessed through Network Rail’s
the strategy options to enable greater        Traction Decarbonisation Network
                                              Strategy.

2.4    RECOMMENDATIONS

The options identified in this study have     c2c, has already undertaken initial
been proposed by Network Rail and             development activity on an ETCS option.
informed by undertaking economic
growth, timetable and route capacity          This study also seeks to establish wider
assessments. The options have been            support from other Government
reviewed by the study’s ‘board’, which        departments and sub-regional
includes the corridor’s principal train       organisations for investment in this part
operator, c2c. It is recommended that         of the rail network. An enhanced rail
these options are considered further          network is critical to achieving the wider
under the Rail Network Enhancements           growth objectives that are expected for
Pipeline. It is noted that the operator,      this area.

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ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY - Railway investment choices July 2020 - Network Rail
3       THE ESSEX THAMESIDE CORRIDOR
This section describes the characteristics             growth trends as well as upcoming
of the Essex Thameside corridor,                       committed rail schemes and third-party
including current level of service, recent             developments.

3.1     RAIL INDUSTRY PLANNING

Greater devolution of economic                         For this study, Network Rail has worked
planning, transport planning and                       with its industry partners and
decision-making means that strategic                   stakeholders to:
planning of the railway involves a greater
level of complexity compared to plans                  •   determine short- (2025), medium-
produced in the past. Network Rail has                     (2035) and long-term (2050)
previously published Route Studies, which                  passenger and freight growth
provided a high-level study of the rail                    forecasts for the corridor;
network across a whole region. For the
area including the Essex Thameside                     •   identify the short-, medium- and
corridor, the last Route Study was                         long-term passenger and freight
published in 2016, and covered the                         service requirements to support this
whole Anglia Route, including the Great                    growth;
Eastern and West Anglia Main Lines, and
London Orbital routes, in addition to the              •   identify additional infrastructure that
Essex Thameside corridor.                                  may be required to achieve these
                                                           requirements, and;
To become more focussed and targeted
in its long-term planning, Network Rail                •   identify station enhancements that
has recently changed its approach and                      may be required to safely
has commenced a programme of                               accommodate increasing passenger
Continuous Modular Strategic Planning                      numbers.
(CMSP), of which this study forms a part.
CMSP is more focussed on a specific area               The production of a more focused study
of the rail network, so this study is able to          such as this, provides greater ownership
provide a more detailed assessment of                  by key stakeholders bringing the case for
the Essex Thameside corridor than                      investment to Government and other
previous Route Studies.                                funders through the Rail Network
                                                       Enhancements Pipeline (RNEP).4

4For more information on the RNEP, see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rail-network-
enhancements-pipeline
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ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY - Railway investment choices July 2020 - Network Rail
3.2        GEOGRAPHY & SCOPE

The Essex Thameside corridor runs from                      These mostly consist of dense urban
London Fenchurch Street to                                  environments close to the railway line,
Shoeburyness with a loop line between                       parallel running with parts of the London
Barking and Pitsea via Tilbury formed of                    Underground and Docklands Light
two tracks and a single line section                        Railway networks and most of the
between Upminster and Grays. These                          section between London Fenchurch
lines carry a mixture of commuter and                       Street and West Ham stations being
leisure traffic along with substantial                      elevated on a viaduct. Combined, these
freight movements to and from various                       factors severely restrict the opportunity
destinations, including the growing ports                   to construct additional infrastructure
at Tilbury and London Gateway. The                          between these points.
corridor is wholly electrified with
overhead line equipment with the                            Running west to east, the route
exception of some freight facilities.                       originates on the eastern edge of the
                                                            City of London, passing through four
The route suffers from several significant                  London Boroughs and four south Essex
physical constraints, especially between                    local authorities, as shown below in
Upminster and London Fenchurch Street.                      Figure 1.5

      Figure 1 – A geographic representation of the Essex Thameside corridor, in purple, which connects key
                      population centres and freight sites in south Essex and east London.

5   The railway also forms the southern boundary of a fifth Essex local authority; Brentwood.
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ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY - Railway investment choices July 2020 - Network Rail
Figure 2 below shows a diagrammatic                         nationwide, far beyond the scope of this
representation of the Essex Thameside                       study, and Network Rail is currently
corridor, with the different parts of                       conducting other work to ensure that
corridor highlighted in different colours.                  future operational requirements for the
The orange dash indicates the western                       connecting cross-London routes are
extent of this study’s freight analysis, as                 identified.
far as Woodgrange Park Junction, where
freight traffic from Essex Thameside can                    The geographical scope of this study is
split between the two different North                       as per this diagram, and references to
London orbital routings. This has been                      the three different lines of the Essex
chosen as the most westerly point where                     Thameside corridor within this study
all freight traffic must pass through. It is                refer to their representation on the
acknowledged that freight trains travel                     diagram.

                                                                                Main Line
                                                                                Tilbury Loop & Thames Haven
                                                                                    Branch
                                                                                Ockendon Single Line
                                                                                West extent of freight analysis

    Figure 2 – A diagrammatic view of the Essex Thameside corridor, with its constituent lines distinguished
                                                 accordingly.

The corridor is largely separated from the                  District Line, as well as Limehouse for
rest of the Anglia Route,6 however it does                  Docklands Light Railway (DLR) services to
have key passenger interchanges with                        Bank. London Fenchurch Street is the
other rail lines, particularly Transport for                only National Rail terminus in London
London-operated services at Barking and                     without a direct connection to the
West Ham.                                                   London Underground, but is a recognised
                                                            out-of-station interchange7 with the
Interchange is also possible at Upminster                   Circle and District Lines from Tower Hill.
for London Overground services to                           A diagram of these key interchanges is
Romford and for connection to the                           shown below at Figure 3.

6 Network Rail’s Anglia Route covers principally the rail network in the East of England.
7 See https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/publications-and-reports/out-of-station-interchanges for more
information.
                                                                                                                  9
Figure 3 – Interchanges at the four inner stations (shown in bold) on the Essex Thameside corridor.

3.3      PASSENGER SERVICES

All passenger services along the corridor                   Patronage is dominated by traditional
are currently provided by the train                         peak hours commuter traffic to and from
operator, c2c, owned by Trenitalia UK.                      London Fenchurch Street and the train
The current off-peak passenger                              service in the peak is intensified
timetable operates trains from London                       significantly to cater for this demand,
Fenchurch Street to;                                        culminating in 20 arrivals at London
                                                            Fenchurch Street between 0800 and
•    Shoeburyness via Basildon – 4 trains                   0859, and 19 departures from London
     per hour (tph);                                        Fenchurch Street between 1700 and
                                                            1759. Most services are operated with
•    Southend Central via Ockendon –                        Class 357 rolling stock with two different
     2tph, and;                                             seating configurations, as shown in Table
                                                            1 below.
•    Grays via Rainham – 2tph8

                                                           Total 4-car        Total 8-car     Total 12-car
                         Seats           Standing
                                                         train capacity     train capacity   train capacity

     4-Car Class
                          282               124                406                812            1,218
        357

    4-Car “Metro”
                          222               334                556                1,112          1,668
      Class 357
                                 Table 1 – Capacity of Class 357 rolling stock.

8 Note, morning high peak trains via Ockendon start at Grays and morning high peak trains via Rainham
start at Southend Central or Pitsea.
                                                                                                            10
The Class 357 fleet is currently in the        All stations on the corridor are able to
middle of its design life and is not due for   accommodate 12-car trains, with two
replacement until the mid-2030s. Six 4-        notable exceptions – platform 3 at Grays
car Class 387 trains with a total 12-car       and platform 3 at Shoeburyness. These
capacity of 1,128 each are also operated.      shorter platforms place operational
The Class 387s will be replaced by new,        constraints on the extent of 12-car
longer trains in 2021.                         services available. These issues are
                                               described in full in section 6.

3.4    FREIGHT SERVICES

Essex Thameside is also a significant and      to the Ford factory, arrives from Europe
complex freight corridor, generating           via the Channel Tunnel Rail Link.
about 40-45 freight movements per day.
These freight trains transport a diverse       All domestic services pass through
range of cargoes to and from various           Barking and then west of Woodgrange
destinations along the corridor, including;    Park Junction connect either with the line
                                               to Gospel Oak or the North London Line
•   maritime and domestic intermodal           (after traversing the Great Eastern Main
    freight handled at London Gateway,         Line between Forest Gate Junction and
    Tilbury, Barking and Purfleet;             Stratford station). Any uplift in freight
                                               traffic to and from Essex Thameside
•   inbound bulk cement and crushed            destinations would require consideration
    rock for processing or distribution at     of capacity on the north London routes
    various aggregates facilities, plus        (including the Great Eastern Main Line)
    outbound marine-dredged sands and          and beyond, in conjunction with any
    gravels and recycled aggregate             improvements on the Essex Thameside
    substitutes;                               corridor itself, most notably in
                                               connection with the high-frequency
•   finished and semi-finished metals via      London Overground service on the North
    Tilbury, and;                              London Line. This will be explored as part
                                               of the London Rail Freight Strategy,
•   components and completed vehicles          currently underway, and due to report
    to and from the Ford factory in            later in 2020. Figure 4 below shows the
    Dagenham.                                  connectivity from the Essex Thameside
                                               corridor with the East Coast, Midland and
The majority of freight connectivity to        West Coast Main Lines.
and from the Essex Thameside corridor is
with destinations in the Midlands and          Due to gaps in electrification, most
northern England, although there is also       freight services on the corridor are
some traffic to and from southern and          hauled by diesel locomotives, despite the
western England, Wales and the Scottish        key West and East Coast routes being
Central Belt. A proportion of the traffic      able to cater for electric trains via both
arriving on the corridor, including imports    north London routes.

                                                                                      11
Figure 4 – Freight connectivity across North London from the Essex Thameside route, with key locations.

                                                                                                     12
3.5                                     RECENT GROWTH – PASSENGER 9

Passenger numbers have been increasing                                                 This growth has been consistent and has
on the Essex Thameside corridor over the                                               begun to differ from the national picture
last decade. Figure 5 below shows the                                                  in recent years. Growth was closely
total numbers of passenger journeys                                                    aligned to the national trend up to
travelling on c2c services each year                                                   2015/16, however where the national
between 2011/12 and 2018/19, growing                                                   rate of growth began to reduce after
by approximately 34.9% between these                                                   2015/16, the number of passengers on
dates. This equates to an average 5.1%                                                 Essex Thameside has continued to
year-on-year growth rate.                                                              increase at a relatively consistent rate, as
                                                                                       illustrated in Figure 6.

                                       50                                                                                           40%

                                                                                                  Cumulative Growth since 2011/12
     Total c2c passengers (millions)

                                                                                                                                    35%
                                       45                                                                                           30%
                                                                                                                                    25%
                                       40                                                                                           20%
                                                                                                                                    15%
                                       35                                                                                           10%
                                                                                                                                     5%
                                       30
                                                                                                                                     0%

                                       25

                                                                                                                                                   c2c      National
                 Figure 5 – Total c2c passengers (millions)                            Figure 6 – Growth in c2c and National passenger
                            2011/12 – 2018/19.                                                      numbers since 2011/12.

Over the last decade passenger footfall                                                                                             20
                                                                                         Annual Entries & Exits - Millions

has increased significantly at Barking                                                                                              18
                                                                                                                                    16
and West Ham, as indicated by Figure 7                                                                                              14
opposite. These two stations offer the                                                                                              12
                                                                                                                                    10
greatest opportunity for interchange                                                                                                 8
with the TfL network. London Fenchurch                                                                                               6
                                                                                                                                     4
Street has seen relatively modest                                                                                                    2
growth, albeit from a much higher base.                                                                                              0

                                                    Figure 7 – Total Entries & Exits
                                              (National Rail) at Barking, West Ham                                                       Barking              West Ham
                                                     and London Fenchurch Street                                                         Fenchurch Street
                                                                2009/10 – 2018/19.

9   All graph data from ORR Data Portal
                                                                                                                                                                         13
National Rail statistics do not reveal the                     below in Table 2. These show high
whole picture at West Ham and Barking                          growth trends at West Ham, in particular,
as London Underground and Docklands                            over a similar period, although National
Light Railway station usage statistics are                     Rail growth figures are much higher than
recorded separately. These are shown                           both TfL modes at both stations.

                                     West Ham                                               Barking
               National Rail              LU                  DLR               National Rail           LU
              Users (millions)      Users (millions)     Users (millions)      Users (millions)   Users (millions)
     2012           4.1                   3.3                  2.4                   8.1               14.5
     2013           3.7                   3.4                  2.0                   8.3               15.2
     2014           5.3                   3.5                  2.2                   9.7               15.6
     2015           8.8                   3.8                  2.8                  13.4               16.1
     2016          10.6                   3.5                  3.1                  12.8               15.9
     2017          10.6                   4.4                  3.3                  13.5               18.2
     2018          10.7                   4.4                  3.5                  14.5               16.8
     % chg
     since        + 164.2%              + 34.1%              + 42.0%               + 79.0%              + 15.7%
     2012
 Notes:
 National Rail figures from ORR estimates of station usage statistics.
 LU and DLR figures from TfL statistics.
 National Rail figures for Barking also include estimates for London Overground’s Gospel Oak-Barking service
             Table 2 – Annual entries and exits at West Ham and Barking stations by rail mode.

This increase in passenger usage,                              interchange pattern at Barking,
particularly at West Ham and Barking                           increasing pressure on the footbridge.
stations, has increased pressure on
operations at peak times. West Ham                             Between 2011 and 2018, total daily
experiences heavy demand in the                                numbers of passengers arriving at
morning peak hours from passengers                             London Fenchurch Street in the three-
interchanging from c2c services onto the                       hour morning peak (07:00-09:59)
Jubilee Line, with Barking experiencing                        increased by almost 7%,10 suggesting an
similar issues from passengers changing                        increase in the number of commuters to
from the District Line to c2c services. The                    central London jobs. The central London
reverse happens at both stations in the                        employment rate is, however, just one
evening peak hours.                                            factor that could have influenced growth
                                                               in rail usage along the Essex Thameside
These flows lead to overcrowding on the                        corridor as the growth rate at London
narrow stairs to/from the c2c platforms                        Fenchurch Street is much lower than the
at West Ham with people queuing on the                         overall c2c growth rate over the same
platform in the morning peak, and high                         period (34.9%) and the growth in central
volumes of passengers on the footbridge                        London employment (13%). This
at Barking. The Barking Riverside                              suggests that there are other factors
extension of the London Overground is                          influencing rail demand in this region,
expected to add more complexity to the                         most likely employment growth in other
                                                               areas of London, such as Canary Wharf

10   DfT
                                                                                                                  14
or Stratford. Both of these hubs benefit                      continue developing with an associated
from connectivity via the Jubilee Line                        increase in employment opportunities.
from West Ham and are forecast to

3.5.1 POPULATION FORECASTS 11

Between 2010 and 2016, working age                            significant growth over the next 20 years.
population (ages 16-64) in the South                          Growth in the London Borough of
Essex and East London local authority                         Havering is projected to outstrip
areas served by the Essex Thameside                           Newham from the mid-2020s, with
corridor grew by an average of 6.6%.                          22.2% growth expected by 2040.
This growth was primarily in the London                       Average 16-64 population growth across
Boroughs of Newham and Barking &                              the corridor between 2016 and 2040 is
Dagenham, which grew by 15.9% and                             projected to be 15.9%.
13.4% respectively. Outside of London,
Thurrock grew the most at 4.2%.                               Castle Point is the only local authority
                                                              area where working age population
Future forecast projections remain high                       declined between 2010-2016, and up to
in these areas with Barking & Dagenham                        2040 registers low growth of 1.9%.
(27.9%), Newham (15.0%) and Thurrock                          Figure 8 below shows the forecast for
(18.3%) each forecasted to have                               each area.
 30.0%

 25.0%

 20.0%

 15.0%

 10.0%

     5.0%

     0.0%
                  2016                2020         2025              2030         2035            2040

     -5.0%

                    Brentwood                      Thurrock                    Basildon
                    Castle Point                   Southend-on-Sea             Havering
                    Barking and Dagenham           Newham                      South Essex Average
                    East London
                    Greater     Boroughs
                            London       Average
                                   Average

              Figure 8 – Projected population change by local authority area over the next 20 years.

11   Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                         15
3.6                             RECENT GROWTH – FREIGHT

Nationally, over the last decade, the key                                 Statistics at a more localised level are
intermodal and construction materials                                     difficult to compile accurately due to the
markets – the core commodities hauled                                     nature of the national freight market,
nationally, and on the Essex Thameside                                    however, two key developments have
corridor – have grown by 22% and 30%                                      significantly increased the freight
respectively. Intermodal container traffic                                handling potential of the corridor in
(including international) has grown from                                  recent years.
15.2 million tonnes hauled in 2009/10 to
18.6m tonnes in 2018/19. Haulage of                                       London Gateway port opened in
construction materials has grown from                                     November 2013, complete with a rail
17.2m tonnes in 2009/10 to 22.3m                                          freight terminal, vastly increasing the
tonnes in 2018/19 with a peak in                                          international container handling
2016/17 of 24.3m tonnes. The trends                                       potential of the south Essex coast and
over the last decade can be seen below                                    contributing significantly to the growth
at Figure 9.                                                              in the freight traffic on the corridor. The
                                                                          port is not yet operating at its maximum
                               26                                         capacity, currently operating three berths
                               24                                         for ships to dock. A further three berths
     Million tonnes per year

                               22                                         and a second rail terminal are able to be
                               20                                         developed in the future, subject to
                               18                                         demand.
                               16
                               14                                         In addition, DB Cargo’s Barking Eurohub
                               12                                         has also been developed, offering direct
                               10                                         access to HS1 and providing an interface
                                                                          between the varying maximum loading
                                                                          gauges between Great Britain and
                                    Intermodal   Construction Materials
                                                                          Europe, although demand for continental
                                                                          rail freight remains low at this time.
  Figure 9 – The two main freight types carried
 nationally have seen moderate growth over the
                  last decade.12

12   Network Rail freight forecasts: Scenarios for 2033/34 & 2043/44
                                                                                                                 16
3.7    COMMITTED SCHEMES

There are several rail enhancement           the Essex Thameside corridor. All of these
programmes and significant third-party       projects have completion dates in the
developments currently ongoing or            early/mid-2020s and are included in this
committed which will have an impact on       study’s baseline growth forecasts.

3.7.1 BARKING RIVERSIDE

Barking Riverside is a large mixed-use       extended to serve this new station and is
development in Barking, being built on       expected to begin in January 2022 with
brownfield land formerly occupied by         a frequency of 4tph. New, longer, 4-car
Barking Power Station adjacent to the        Class 710 electric trains began operation
River Thames. The site has planning          in mid-2019 on the existing Gospel Oak
permission for 10,900 homes and              to Barking section, replacing the 2-car
associated commercial and community          diesel trains used prior to electrification.
facilities. The development also features    Land has been safeguarded for a station
a new station, accessed on new               west of Renwick Road, however there are
infrastructure.                              no plans to develop the proposal at this
                                             time.
The current London Overground service
from Gospel Oak to Barking will be

3.7.2 BEAM PARK STATION

Beam Park is a station currently in          peak service frequency provided by c2c
development to be sited between              to London Fenchurch Street of 4tph and
Rainham and Dagenham Dock stations           an off-peak service frequency of 2tph.
on the Tilbury Loop. The station is          Further parcels of nearby land are
proposed to serve a new housing              expected to be developed after the initial
development of 3,000 homes and is            3,000 homes.
expected to open in May 2022 with a

3.7.3 NEW C2C TRAINS

c2c will introduce longer trains to aid      ahead of the originally planned date of
peak demand in the short-term. This will     2024. These trains will replace six 4-car
consist of six 10-car Bombardier Aventra     Class 387 trains, providing an increase in
trains, expected to be in service in 2021,   train capacity in the peak hours.

3.7.4 FOUR LINES MODERNISATION (‘4LM’)

London Underground is currently              increase capacity and improve journey
undertaking a programme of works to          times on its Circle, District, Hammersmith

                                                                                      17
& City and Metropolitan Lines. The           Upminster and West Ham will see a
current peak hours service to Barking is     significant service frequency
24tph, with 12 continuing to Upminster.      enhancement. However, this isn’t
This is planned to increase to 32tph to      expected to result in any notable
Barking with 16 continuing to Upminster.     abstraction of passengers from c2c
                                             services onto LU services due to the
As a result, LU passengers travelling on     quicker journey times available on c2c
the sections of the District and             trains. Completion of the 4LM
Hammersmith & City Lines which run in        programme is scheduled for May 2023.
parallel with c2c services between

3.7.5 NEW DLR TRAINS AND SERVICE ENHANCEMENTS

New walk-through trains are                  The peak service frequency from
programmed to operate across the DLR         Stratford International to Woolwich
from 2024. These trains will be 90m long     Arsenal via London City Airport will be
and in a fixed formation, replacing trains   doubled from 7.5tph to 15tph. A new
made up of two or three separate 30m         service from Stratford International to
units with no ability for passengers to      Beckton will also be introduced with a
move between them. The walk-through          peak frequency of 7.5tph, bringing the
formation will offer greater capacity and    total peak hours frequency via West Ham
allow passengers to distribute more          up from 7.5tph today to 22.5tph. The
easily along the full length of the train.   service frequencies to Bank and Tower
Forty-three new trains will be introduced,   Gateway via Limehouse will not change.
working alongside existing rolling stock
and replacing some of the oldest trains
operating across the network.

3.7.6 TILBURY2

The Port of Tilbury has recently             intermodal container traffic. The facility
expanded onto brownfield land to the         commenced operations in summer 2020,
east of its existing site. A new rail        with the freight terminal expected to
terminal capable of handling 775m            open before the end of the year. Once
trains is under construction and is          operational it is expected to generate in
expected to primarily handle                 the region of eight additional freight
construction materials and bulk              train circulations per day across
aggregates as well as some domestic          intermodal and bulk handling activities.

3.7.7 STEPHENSON STREET DEVELOPMENT & WEST HAM STATION

Planning permission has been granted         formerly occupied by a Parcelforce depot.
for a large, high-rise development on        The Stephenson Street development will
land adjacent to West Ham station            deliver 3,800 new homes, commercial

                                                                                    18
and community space, as well as a new        The new station entrance is expected to
entrance to West Ham station, linking        open in autumn 2022.
the development directly with the station
on the bridge above the Jubilee Line.

3.7.8 PURFLEET CENTRE REGENERATION

Outline planning permission has been         adjacent level crossing on London Road,
granted for the redevelopment of             replacing it with a bridge. The first phase,
Purfleet town centre, focussed around        including around 1,000 homes, is
the existing railway station. The            expected to be complete by April 2023.
proposed redevelopment includes up to        Planning conditions specify that the
2,800 new homes, new community               bridge and station must be completed
facilities, business and leisure space,      prior to certain residential or commercial
including 135,000m² of film and TV           elements of the scheme, however, a
studios. The masterplan also aims to         delivery date is not confirmed at this
redevelop the station and close the          stage.

3.7.9 GRAYS STATION AND LEVEL CROSSING

Thurrock Council, Network Rail and c2c       The scheme is likely to require the
are currently developing a proposal to       realignment of Crown Road on the north
close Grays High Street Level Crossing.      side of the railway and reconfiguration
This pedestrian only crossing, adjacent to   of the adjacent station drop-off and taxi
Grays station sees high levels of misuse,    facilities. The project is currently
and its replacement with an underpass is     undergoing option selection, with a
expected to improve the safety and           target delivery date in 2024.
performance of this part of the network.

3.7.10 STANFORD-LE-HOPE STATION

Stanford-le-Hope station on the Tilbury      access and improved cycle parking and
Loop is currently being redeveloped by       bus interchange. The new station
Thurrock Council and c2c to provide a        facilities are due to open in May 2021.
new modern station entrance, step-free

                                                                                     19
Figure 10 below indicates the current expected completion dates for the projects listed
above on the Essex Thameside corridor and interfacing TfL network.

Figure 10 – Current expected delivery timeline of committed enhancements and developments. Note, arrows
                               indicate onward phased delivery of housing.

3.8     UNCOMMITTED SCHEMES AND ASPIRATIONS

As well as committed schemes there are                 upon passenger and freight services on
a number of proposals in development                   the Essex Thameside corridor.
which, if delivered, would have an impact

3.8.1 C2C EUROPEAN TRAIN CONTROL SYSTEM (ETCS) PROPOSAL

c2c has developed a business case for                  capacity for passengers until 2035. The
the introduction of ETCS Level 2 digital               proposed signalling would have the
signalling. c2c’s aspiration is to introduce           capability to increase train frequency up
a 24tph high peak hour timetable from                  to 28tph (subject to other required
May 2025, which, with a further                        enhancements). This study has worked
introduction of rolling stock is projected             with c2c to establish this as an option for
to be able to provide sufficient network               accommodating future growth.

3.8.2 RIPPLE LANE NODAL YARD

Ripple Lane West Yard is an existing                   a nodal yard to enable it to
freight yard between Barking and                       accommodate 775m freight trains, GB2
Dagenham Dock on the Tilbury Loop.                     gauge freight from HS1, and provide a
The yard is planned to be enhanced into                regulation point between the Tilbury
                                                                                                   20
Loop and the London orbital routes,            capacity is best utilised and enable route
maximising freight capacity within the         performance to be better managed at a
parameters of existing interfacing             key location before joining the busy
passenger timetables.                          London orbital network at Barking. The
                                               project is currently in the Design/Final
It is important to note that the               Business Case phase of the Rail Network
enhancement to the yard will not provide       Enhancement Pipeline and a Decision to
additional on-network capacity, as             Deliver is expected in 2020. If approved,
infrastructure enhancements would also         the scheme is expected to be delivered in
be required elsewhere to support this.         Control Period 6 (CP6, 2019-2024).
Rather, it will help to ensure that existing

3.8.3 BARKING STATION ACCESS FOR ALL BID

The DfT’s Access for All (AfA)                 launch, over 150 stations have benefited
programme was launched in 2006 to              from the scheme. In 2018, c2c submitted
address the issues faced by disabled           a bid to improve Barking station from the
passengers and passengers facing               CP6 fund. This bid was unsuccessful,
mobility restraints (such as heavy             however the concept designs proposed in
luggage or pushchairs) when using              the bid have been considered under this
railway stations in Great Britain. Since its   study.

3.8.4 LONG-TERM DLR ASPIRATIONS

A long-term aspiration exists to extend        along with a potential to connect this
the DLR to Thamesmead and Belvedere,           extension northwards to Barking station,
south of the River Thames, via a new           opening up more interchange
tunnel or bridge from Gallions Reach,          opportunities.

3.8.5 JUBILEE LINE OPTIMISATION

Signalling improvements on the Jubilee         interchanging at West Ham during peak
Line has enabled the maximum train             hours. It may be possible to increase
frequency from Stratford to be increased       frequency up to 32tph, subject to further
from 24tph to 30tph, which improves            improvements.
capacity for Essex Thameside passengers

3.8.6 BARKING REGENERATION PROPOSALS

BeFirst, a regeneration company wholly         When options presented by this study
owned by the London Borough of                 are taken forward into further
Barking and Dagenham, is currently             development, an investigation into the
developing a masterplan for the town           viability of incorporating capacity
centre surrounding Barking station.            enhancements at Barking station with

                                                                                      21
commercial opportunities is                   than a purely station-based intervention
recommended. However, funders should          and that long lead times for developing a
be mindful that the timeframe for             commercial opportunity should not
designing and building a development of       jeopardise safe and efficient station
this nature could take significantly longer   operation.

3.8.7 REDEVELOPMENT PROPOSALS

At least two large scale planning             commercial and industrial facilities,
applications are currently under              including a rail terminal. If this
consideration by Thurrock Council, which      application proceeds, this could increase
could increase residential and                rail freight traffic to and from the Essex
commercial activity in the area. The          Thameside corridor.
Arena Essex application proposes up to
2,500 homes near to Chafford Hundred          Brentwood Borough Council is also
station and the Lakeside Shopping             promoting significant new housing
Centre. If this application was approved,     developments in the south of the
this could increase passenger demand at       borough near the Essex Thameside
Chafford Hundred station.                     corridor, including the Dunton Hills
                                              Garden Village. This site, to the north
Secondly, the Thames Enterprise Park          east of West Horndon station could
proposal promotes a phased                    developed to include up to 4,000 new
redevelopment of the former Coryton Oil       homes. It is proposed that West Horndon
Refinery, beyond London Gateway port          station would be improved along with
at the end of the Thames Haven branch         these housing developments, improving
line to provide up to 480,000m2 of            car, bus and cycle access.

3.8.8 MINOR STATION ENHANCEMENT PROPOSALS

Previous studies have highlighted an          improve access to and from the island
opportunity to install a second gateline      platform in the short-term.
at Barking station near to the stairs to
platforms 5/6 and 7/8. Although this is a     As neither of these proposals are
minor proposal, a second gateline at          committed, they have not been used in
Barking station could bring an                this study’s baseline for future station
improvement in passenger flow at the          capacity modelling, however the
station entrance and ease congestion on       proposed layouts have been tested as a
the footbridge. c2c has also raised the       sensitivity to understand their likely
prospect of installing an escalator at        effectiveness in relieving passenger
West Ham to relieve crowding and              congestion and viability as short-term
                                              enhancement options.

                                                                                      22
3.8.9 RAIL FREIGHT ELECTRIFICATION

Network Rail’s 2017 Freight Network            (the Tottenham North Curve between
Study highlighted gaps in capability for       Junction Road Junction and Carlton Road
running electric freight trains on this part   Junction) prevents use of electric traction
of the network. Despite the Essex              between Essex Thameside locations and
Thameside corridor and its connections         the Midland Main Line. Several other
to the Great Eastern Main Line (including      similar examples exist outside of London.
the onward connection to the North             If these gaps in electrification could be
London Line) and Gospel Oak-Barking            bridged then this could contribute to the
Line being electrified, allowing full use of   decarbonisation of rail freight in this
electric passenger trains, the 2.5 mile        region.
Thames Haven branch line to London
Gateway port is unelectrified, preventing      Network Rail’s Traction Decarbonisation
the use of electric freight locomotives. It    Network Strategy is likely to propose the
is also worth noting that electrification of   electrification of some of these gaps.
several other lines and terminals across       Given their relatively short lengths and
the country would need to be completed         potential to realise an increase in the
to unlock more end-to-end electrically-        number of electrically hauled services
hauled freight journeys. In London, the        they are likely to be identified as a high
0.7 mile connection from the Gospel Oak-       priority for delivery.
Barking Line to the Midland Main Line

                                                                                       23
4      STUDY APPROACH
The study commenced in spring 2019 and with support from industry partners, sought to
answer the following key question;

    What interventions are required to support the expected growth in passenger
     and freight services in the Essex Thameside area over the next 30 years?

Passenger and freight demand over the            passenger journeys upon the three key
next 30 years has been forecasted and            stations has also been assessed and
solutions to increase capacity have been         suitable proposals from existing source
identified. Impacts of increased                 material have been investigated further.

4.1    STRATEGIC QUESTIONS

Network Rail agreed with its stakeholders at the outset of the study five Strategic
Questions to understand these required interventions. These questions are;

  SQ1: What is the expected growth in passenger demand over the next 30 years and
       what challenges does this present?

  SQ2: What interventions are required to provide sufficient capacity post-2035, when
       the capacity provided by the initial ETCS proposal is expected to be exhausted?

  SQ3: What are the capacity challenges at the three ‘key stations’ and how can these
       be addressed?

  SQ4: What is the expected future growth in rail freight to and from Essex Thameside
       destinations and how can this be supported?

  SQ5: Should the ETCS proposal not proceed, what other options exist to increase
       capacity in the long-term?

                                                                                       24
4.2    METHODOLOGY

The broad methodology used in the study to answer the Strategic Questions is shown in
the diagram below;

 Economic Analysis                 Train Service Analysis &            Recommendations
                                   Station Capacity Analysis
 Establish passenger and                                               Advise what enhancement
 freight growth profiles           Conduct assessment into             options exist in the short-,
 on the corridor                   infrastructure and station          medium- and long-term
                                   enhancement options

As outlined above, for passenger services,           enhancement. Where necessary, the
the Essex Thameside corridor is primarily            most suitable locations for infrastructure
a commuter railway. The study has,                   enhancements to support improved
therefore, focussed on ensuring that                 services have been identified. Current
traditional peak hours passenger services            committed schemes identified above
continue to have enough capacity in the              have been included in the baseline
long-term, while also assuring that                  analysis for this study.
increasing freight demand can be
accommodated during the off-peak                     While concepts for station
hours.                                               enhancements normally wouldn’t be
                                                     presented at this stage of study, several
Network Rail has forecasted demand for               recent reports regarding options for
passenger services in the short-,                    enhancement at West Ham and Barking
medium-, and long-term. Recent national              stations exist. As there is an opportunity
freight forecasts have been assessed to              to use this source material as part of this
identify whether any infrastructure                  study, Network Rail and stakeholders
changes are needed to support freight                have selected suitable concepts from
growth. Timetables, rolling stock                    these existing reports to be modelled for
formations and infrastructure                        pedestrian capacity following the
capabilities have been analysed to                   outputs of demand forecasting.
understand opportunities for efficient

4.3    STUDY PLANNING HORIZON

Network Rail and stakeholders have                   c2c’s proposed introduction date of a
chosen to assess the corridor at three               24tph timetable under ETCS to make it
reference years in order to present a                possible to draw comparisons with
staged, short-, medium- and long-term                alternative options. The long-term, 2050
picture of the corridor. These years are             horizon was chosen as the current extent
2025, 2035 and 2050. The short-term                  of long-range forecasting offered by
horizon of 2025 was chosen to mirror                 TfL’s Railplan model. 2035 is a central,

                                                                                                 25
medium-term horizon, which also aligns         interventions beyond the original ETCS
with the projection c2c has made               proposal, as well as a second horizon for
regarding the longevity of its proposed        considering other capacity enhancement
24tph timetable. This is, therefore, an        options.
ideal medium-term year to propose

4.4    GOVERNANCE

This study has used a similar governance       Focussed workshops were held to develop
methodology to other studies recently          understanding and inform decisions on
completed. The study has been                  freight and stations matters, and to
facilitated by Network Rail and was            establish understanding of planned
primarily supported by a study board           enhancements on the TfL network. This
consisting of stakeholders from the            study also had input from the Rail
region, as well as the Department for          Freight Group. Freight operators have
Transport and Transport for London. The        been engaged in the study through the
board agreed the scope of the Strategic        London Rail Freight Strategy working
Questions and had a role in selecting and      group and have been consulted on the
reviewing strategy and enhancement             findings of the rail freight workshop.
concepts developed by Network Rail.

 Study Board Members

 Network Rail                               Essex County Council
 c2c                                        Thurrock Council
 Transport for London                       Southend-on-Sea Borough Council
 Department for Transport                   Opportunity South Essex
 Rail Delivery Group                        Association of South Essex Local Authorities
                                            South East Local Enterprise Partnership

                                                                                      26
5      LONG-TERM GROWTH ASSESSMENT
This section presents Network Rail’s view              in turn below. This section also describes
of growth in both passenger and freight                the likely impact of this growth upon
demand on the corridor and sets out the                stations. A single, central passenger
shortfall in the number of passenger                   forecast was produced for this study,
carriages on the network in the morning                however, a sensitivity test of higher
high peak as well as the total number of               growth across the corridor has been
freight paths per hour recommended in                  applied and the effect of this is set out in
the off-peak. Growth forecasts for each                the final section of this document.
have been conducted and are discussed

5.1    GROWTH ASSESSMENT – PASSENGER

The assessment of passenger growth has                 for years 2031 and 2050, and
been based on Transport for London’s                   interpolated to reflect this study’s
Railplan model. Railplan was used to                   reference years of 2025, 2035 and 2050.
forecast passenger demand for morning                  The number of additional carriages
peak c2c services arriving at London                   required on top of expected future
Fenchurch Street between 07:00-09:59.                  capacity was calculated.

Railplan outputs were used to calculate                Table 3 below shows the average growth
the growth in the number of passengers                 (from a 2018 base) in high peak
travelling between each adjacent pair of               passengers across the Essex Thameside
stations, or ‘arc’. Future demand was                  corridor in each of this study’s reference
compared to expected future capacity to                years, as well as the growth at the
determine levels of crowding including                 busiest point on the corridor between
standing density. Demand was forecast                  Barking and West Ham.

                                                2025               2035              2050
        Average Corridor Growth Rate             9%                20%               35%
        Growth at Critical Load Point
                                                11%               25%                42%
           (Barking – West Ham)
                  Table 3 – Forecast growth rates on the Essex Thameside corridor.

These growth rates represent an increase               rate is lower than the average of all
of approximately 1.2% per year across                  routes into London, it was agreed that as
the whole corridor and approximately                   a sensitivity test, the high-level impacts
1.6% per year at the critical load point               of higher growth scenario would be
by 2025, and an average 2018-2050 rate                 established to understand how much
of 0.9%, and 1.1% at the critical load                 sooner interventions would be needed if
point. These rates were endorsed by the                a higher rate of growth is realised. This is
study’s board, however as this growth                  set out in the final section.

                                                                                                27
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