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Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021-2025 - DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMENT - AWS
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                                        DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN

Grampians
Region
Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025
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                                   Who is this document for?
                                   Victoria’s Climate Change Act requires the Government to ‘take strong action to build
                                   resilience to, and reduce the risks posed by, climate change and protect those most vulnerable.’ 11
                                   Development of this community-led Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and
                                   coordination of its implementation has been funded by the Department of Environment,
                                   Land, Water and Planning (DELWP).
                                   The Strategy was written collaboratively by members of Regional Climate Adaptation Groups
                                   (RCAG) representing state government, agencies, local government, universities, farmers,
                                   business and community in close consultation with key stakeholders throughout the Grampians
                                   Region. It is intended that everyone involved can see their own climate adaptation aspirations
                                   reflected. Efforts across the Region can be better coordinated, leading to improved outcomes for
                                   communities and the environment.
                                   Community groups, local governments, agencies and organisations can use this
                                   document to:
                                   • Align their own climate adaptation planning and projects to regional goals and outcomes,
                                     providing opportunities for partnerships and collaboration to maximise collective impact.
                                   • Apply for grants funded by DELWP.
                                   • Support funding applications for other government, corporate and philanthropic grants.
                                     Activities aligned with these goals and outcomes will be able to demonstrate a high level
                                     of strategic thinking at a regional level, stakeholder engagement and community support.
                                   • Prompt conversations and planning within and between organisations to reduce the risks
                                     that will arise from climate change.

                                                                                                                 Funded by:

                                   1   Climate Change Act 2017 (Vic), preamble.

  Cover image: Grain harvest near Mitre Rock by Glenn Tempest
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                                  Contents

                                  Introduction 4

                                  Grampians Region profile 6

                                  Background and context 8

                                  The adaptation challenge 10

                                  Adaptation themes 14

                                  Grampians Region vision 32

                                  Goals, outcomes and indicators 34

                                  Implementation 37

                                  References 38

                                  Appendices 41

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                               Introduction
                                While many of the likely consequences            • Community cohesion and behaviour
                                of climate change are reasons for genuine          change are necessary for successful
                                concern about the future, working together         adaptation in the Region and must be
                                to produce this document shows how                 factored into every goal and action.
                                adapting to those risks can motivate hope
                                                                                 In collectively writing this Strategy,
                                and determination for those who commit
                                                                                 stakeholders reflected on plausible future
                                to it.
                                                                                 scenarios and how these might play out
                                We start from four key assumptions:              in key themes for climate change in the
                                                                                 Region: agriculture; biodiversity; economy;
                                • Adapting to a changing climate requires
                                                                                 heat; health and wellbeing; fire; storms and
                                  a strategic and coordinated approach,
                                                                                 flooding; and water. The Grampians Region
                                  mobilising the people, organisations and
                                                                                 Climate Adaptation Strategy is accompanied
                                  communities of the Grampians Region
                                                                                 by an academically researched Situation
                                  around shared goals and outcomes.
                                                                                 Analysis, which brings together current
                                • Climate change is complex, affecting           science and an overview of adaptation work
                                  the landscapes, built environments,            already underway to ensure this Strategy
                                  businesses, communities and people             builds upon existing knowledge and efforts.
                                  of the Region in diverse ways.
                                • There are multiple plausible climate futures
                                  for the Region, depending in part on global
                                  factors (especially the extent of greenhouse
                                  gas emissions worldwide) and in part on
                                  local factors (especially the quality of the
                                  strategic approach to adaptation).

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The closing section of this document
                                                                             Grampians Region
synthesises those investigations into
a long-term vision and seven mid-term
                                                    Grampians Region         adaptation goals
goals for climate adaptation in the Region.         adaptation vision        for 2030–2035
Each goal contains a series of outcomes and
indicators that will guide implementation
                                                    for 2050
                                                                             • Our regional responses to climate
and monitoring of the Strategy.
In this five-year horizon it is critical to build   Grampians Region           change are coordinated, resourced
                                                                               and evidence-based.
upon the existing climate adaptation work           communities,             • Our Region’s biodiversity and natural
already underway and focus effort on the
actions that will best set the Grampians
                                                    organisations and          ecosystems are protected and resilient.
Region up to meet the present, coming               natural systems are      • The Grampians economy is sustainable
and cumulative challenges of climate
                                                    thriving in a changing     and climate-ready.
change. DELWP has committed initial
implementation funding for this purpose.            climate because          • Regional farming is well-adapted
                                                                               to the changing climate.
                                                    we are adapting
                                                                             • Our built environment is more resistant
                                                    well together.             to weather extremes.
                                                                             • Individuals and communities proactively
                                                                               reduce their climate-related risk.
                                                                             • Our vulnerable people are supported
                                                                               to adapt to climate change.

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                                    Grampians Region profile
                                    The Grampians Region stretches from the
                                    South Australian border to Bacchus Marsh                                   YARRIAMBIACK

                                    in the east (Figure 1). It covers 4,861,944                                   Hopetoun

                                    hectares, with a population of over 220,000.
                                    Ballarat is its largest centre with just over               HINDMARSH

                                    100,000 residents. Boasting a diverse
                                                                                                   Nhill             Warracknabeal

                                    geography of mountains, desert, forests,           Kaniva       Dimboola

                                    grasslands and wetlands, the Region is                                       Horsham
                                                                                                                                              St Arnaud

                                    named after the Grampians National Park           WEST
                                                                                      WIMMERA              Natimuk             NORTHERN
                                                                                                                               GRAMPIANS
                                    – an ancient, mountainous landscape                 Edenhope
                                                                                                           HORSHAM
                                                                                                                                     Stawell        Avoca

                                    attracting large numbers of tourists.
                                                                                                                                                                  HEPBURN
                                    The Region comprises the 11 local                                                                Ararat         Beaufort       Daylesford

                                    government areas of Ararat, Ballarat,                                                      ARARAT
                                                                                                                                                  PYRENEES
                                                                                                                                                             BALLARAT
                                                                                                                                                                    Ballan
                                                                                                                                Lake Bolac                       Bacchus Marsh
                                    Golden Plains, Hepburn, Moorabool                                                                                     GOLDEN
                                                                                                                                                                   MOORABOOL
                                                                                                                                                          PLAINS
                                    and Pyrenees (Central Highlands) and                                                                                         Rokewood

                                    Hindmarsh, Horsham, Northern Grampians,            Dj Dja Wurrung                                                          Bannockburn
                                    West Wimmera and Yarriambiack                      Eastern Maar
                                    (Wimmera Southern Mallee). This spans              Gunditj Mara
                                    traditional lands of the Dja Dja Wurrung,          Wadawurrung
                                    Eastern Maar, Gunditj Mara, Wadawurrung,           Wurundjeri
                                    Wurundjeri and Wotjobaluk (Jaadwa,                 Wotjobaluk
                                    Jadawadjali, Jupagulk, Wergaia and
                                    Wotjobaluk) peoples.                            Figure 1: Grampians Region map with Registered
                                                                                    Aboriginal Parties and local government areas

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                                                                       The last ice age took place between 234                                 Overall, the Region is becoming more
    Jadawadjali rock art                                               25,000 and 12,000 years ago,5 where                                     populated, but that picture is not consistent
                                                                       ‘average temperatures fell by 10ºC, rainfall                            across all municipalities. Ballarat is growing
    in the Grampians                                                   decreased, and cold, dry winds blew across                              its services industries, along with a
    National Park                                                      the land.’6 Since then global temperatures                              significant manufacturing base. Moorabool
                                                                       have increased7 to be higher than humans                                and Golden Plains shires are playing an
    (Gariwerd) is over                                                 may have ever experienced in Australia.                                 important role in the growth of metropolitan
    20,000 years old,2                                                 The climate throughout the Region
                                                                                                                                               Melbourne. Some Wimmera Southern Mallee
                                                                                                                                               communities have been shrinking however,
    indicating the                                                     varies tremendously. The drier, warmer
                                                                                                                                               with populations generally declining and
                                                                       climate of the Murray Basin natural
    ancestors of today’s                                               resource management (NRM) bioregion,
                                                                                                                                               ageing at the same time as urban centres
    Wotjobaluk peoples                                                 north west of the Great Dividing Range
                                                                                                                                               expand and diversify. Both population
                                                                                                                                               growth and decline present challenges
    lived through the                                                  (Wimmera Southern Mallee), contrasts
                                                                       with the cooler, wetter climate of the
                                                                                                                                               when adapting to climate change.
    last ice age. This is                                              Southern Slopes NRM bioregion (Central                                  Due to these and many other factors this
    true of other                                                      Highlands) to the south east, with many                                 Strategy is deliberately written at a regional
                                                                       different landscapes visibly representing                               scale. It can also be used as a tool to trigger
    Grampians Region                                                   the Region’s natural diversity. The availability                        discussion and assist coordination of effort
    first nations people                                               of water for human uses and for regional                                to mitigate the risks of climate change at
                                                                       ecosystems will depend on the incidence                                 various other scales across the Grampians
    as well.3,4                                                        of drought, local population sizes and the                              Region, from household and business to
                                                                       way whole catchments are managed.                                       community and municipal.

2 Brambuk National Park and Cultural Centre, ‘Aboriginal Rock Art Sites – Northern Gariwerd’, Brambuk, accessed 25 June 2020:
  www.visitgrampians.com.au/see-do/culture/indigenous-culture/aboriginal-rock-art-sites.
3 M Bourke, A Atkinson & T Neale, ‘Putting Country back together: a Conversation about Collaboration and Aboriginal Fire Management,’ Postcolonial Studies, DOI: 10.1080/13688790.2020.1751909.
4 C Barras, ‘Is an Aboriginal tale of an ancient volcano the oldest story ever told?’ Science, 11 February 2020, accessed 25 June 2020:
  www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/aboriginal-tale-ancient-volcano-oldest-story-ever-told?fbclid=IwAR2mdmohNZy8BejqZYvPn0jTPnEmxr0qn2c6Sd_ jiGKVpMX11_PLmPoOYPs.
5 Australian Academy of Science, ‘How Has Climate Changed?’, AAS, accessed 25 June 2020: www.science.org.au/learning/general-audience/science-climate-change/2-how-has-climate-changed.
6 Bureau of Meteorology, ‘Indigenous Weather Knowledge’, BOM, accessed 25 June 2020: www.bom.gov.au/iwk/culture.shtml.
7 Barrows, Timothy & Alloway, Brent & Reeves, Jessica. (2013). The Australasian-Intimate Project. Special Volume. Quaternary Science Reviews. 74. 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.021.

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                                    Background and context
                                    The Victorian Climate Change Act defines        five years and will inform the state-wide,
                                    adaptation to climate change as:                sector-based Adaptation Action Plans
                                    Any process of adjusting to actual or           specified in the Climate Change Act: built
                                    expected climate and its effects that—          environment; education and training;
                                    a) in human systems, seeks to moderate          health and human services; natural
                                       or avoid harm or exploit beneficial          environment; primary production; transport;
                                       opportunities; and                           and water. Figure 2 captures the policy
                                    b) in natural systems, may be facilitated by    context dynamics governing this Strategy.
                                       human intervention; …8
                                    Supporting our Regions to Adapt is a
                                    $9.32 million four-year Victorian Government
                                                                                        Implementation will
                                    program, funded through the Sustainability          be driven by yearly
                                    Fund. The program provides practical
                                    support for regional communities to
                                                                                        delivery plans, which
                                    strengthen their resilience to climate change       will include funding
                                    by building adaptive capacity and supporting        for priority actions.
                                    the delivery of targeted adaptation action in
                                    Victoria’s regions.
                                    DELWP is supporting the development
                                    and implementation of regional adaptation       Proposed actions will be assessed by
                                    strategies in each of its six regions           the Regional Climate Adaptation Groups
                                     – Barwon South West, Gippsland, Grampians,     that have worked together to develop
                                    Hume, Loddon Mallee and Port Phillip.           this Strategy, supported by DELWP.
                                    This document, the Grampians Region             An annual scorecard will be produced
                                    Climate Adaptation Strategy, will guide         to monitor and evaluate how well the
                                    priority climate change adaptation action       Region is adapting to climate change
                                    in the Grampians Region over the next           by tracking some key metrics, listed as
                                                                                    indicators on pages 34–36 of this document.
                                    8 Climate Change Act 2017 (Vic), S 3.

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                                                                                                                      While the focus of this Strategy is
                                              At DELWP our         To succeed we must                                 adapting to the changing climate,
                                              business is          • Reduce greenhouse
                                              Climate Change
                                                                                                                      reducing greenhouse gas emissions
                                                                     gas emissions
                                              Our outcome goal:    • Increase community                               locally and regionally is vitally important.
                                              Zero emissions,        capacity to adapt
                                                                                                                      The Victorian Government has legislated
                                              climate-ready          to the impacts
                                              economy                of climate change                                net zero emissions by 20509 and has
                                              and community        • Increase the Victorian
                                                                     economy’s ability                                a target of 50 per cent renewable electricity
                                                                     to transition to                                 by 2030.10 The Australian Government
                                                                     net zero emissions
          Australia                                                                                 Supporting        has ratified the Paris Agreement to
          will reduce                                                                             our regions to      ‘keep global temperature rise well below
          emissions to                                                                                 adapt          2ºC with aspirations to 1.5ºC’.11 Regionally,
          26–28%                                                                                                      the Grampians New Energy Taskforce
          on 2005
          levels by                                                                                                   (GNET) is leading climate change mitigation
          2030                                                                                                        efforts via the Grampians Roadmap to
                                   Victorian
                                   Climate                                                                            Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (R2Z).12
                                   Change
                                   Act 2010 Victorian                                                                 Reducing reliance on fossil fuels (coal, gas,
                                             Climate                                                                  petrol and diesel) is a positive adaptation
                               Net zero by Change                           Victorian
                                   2050 Act 2017                            Climate Change                            action that empowers households and
                                                                            Strategy                                  businesses while also increasing thermal
                         Victoria’s                                                                                   efficiency, reducing energy bills and
     COP21               renewable
                                                                                                                      improving air quality. On site energy
Keep global              energy
temperature rise         targets (VRET)                                                                               generation and carbon storage can provide
well below 2°C           40%                                                                      Community-led       new sources of income for landholders.
with aspirations         by 2025                                                              regional adaptation     The R2Z identifies the agriculture sector as
to 1.5°C                                                                                                strategies
                         50%                                                                                          the emissions reduction hero for Grampians
                         by 2030                                                               Barwon South West
                                     VRET
                                                                                                 Grampians            Region. With their ability to revegetate
                                                                                                    Loddon Mallee     marginal land, store carbon in soil and turn
                                                                                                            Hume
          Grampians                                                                                     Gippsland     waste into bioenergy, farmers can help the
          Roadmap                                                                                      Port Phillip   region to become net zero by 2044.
          to Net Zero
          Emissions
          by 2050
                                   Sector based Adaptation Action Plans                                               9 Climate Change Act 2017 (Vic)
                                                                                                                      10 Renewable Energy (Jobs and Investment) Act 2017 (Vic).
                                         • Health and human services • Transport                                      11 United Nations, Paris Agreement (English language version),
                                   • Natural environment • Water • Built environment                                     UN, New York, 2015.
                                      • Primary production • Education and training                                   12 Grampians New Energy Taskforce, Grampians Regional
                                                                                                                         Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions, GNET, Ballarat, 2020.

Figure 2: Diagram of climate change policy context

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                                The adaptation challenge
                                 Humanity thrived in the relatively                                        The economy of Wimmera Southern Mallee
                                 stable climate experienced over the past                                  is expected to be the third most impacted
                                 8,000 years.13 Now, the pace of climatic                                  by heatwaves in the state16 and local
                                 change threatens natural systems, built                                   governments have been directed to consider
                                 environments, social structures and                                       climate change in their 2021 municipal
                                 human health and wellbeing in ways                                        health and wellbeing plans.1718
                                 that have not been experienced before.
                                 Horsham and Hindmarsh are forecast
                                 to be in the top ten localities of Victoria                                    We can no longer
                                 to be most affected by climate change                                          build, farm, plan or do
                                 by 2100, in terms of property values,
                                 due to flooding and soil subsidence during                                     business without the
                                 drought.14 Halls Gap was rated the top                                         future climate in mind
                                 postcode for bushfire peril in Australia
                                 in November 2019.15 Some communities
                                                                                                                and we cannot rely on
                                 in Pyrenees Shire are already dependent                                        modelling based on
                                 upon groundwater as local reservoirs are
                                 no longer viable with diminished rainfall.
                                                                                                                historic trends.18

                                 13 Australian Academy of Science, ‘How Has Climate Changed?’, AAS, accessed 25 June 2020: www.science.org.au/learning/general-
                                    audience/science-climate-change/2-how-has-climate-changed.
                                 14 Climate Council, Compound Costs: How Climate Change Is Damaging Australia’s Economy. Climate Council of Australia, Canberra,
                                    accessed 25 June 2020: www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/costs-of-climate-change-report-v3.pdf.
                                 15 A Gissing and F Langbein, ‘What areas of Australia are most at risk from natural perils?’ Risk Frontiers Newsletter, Vol 18 No 4 (October
                                    2019), accessed 25 February 2021: riskfrontiers.com/rf2018/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/newsletter_V18_Issue4_Oct_2019.pdf.
                                 16 Natural Capital Economics (2018). Heatwaves in Victoria: a vulnerability assessment. Report prepared for the Department of
                                    Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Victoria, accessed 25 February 2021: www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_
                                    file/0029/399440/Heatwaves_VulnerabilityAssessment_2018.pdf.
                                 17 Health.Vic, Victorian Public Health and Wellbeing Plan 2019-2023. Government of Victoria,Melbourne,accessed 25 February 2021:
                                    www2.health.vic.gov.au/about/publications/policiesandguidelines/victorian-public-health-wellbeing-plan-2019-2023.
                                 18 Munich RE, Australia and Climate Change: A summary of the current situation and future prospects, Munich RE, Sydney, accessed
                                    25 February 2021: www.munichre.com/topics-online/en/climate-change-and-natural-disasters/climate-change/australia-faced-with-
                                    climate-change.html.

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In 2019 the Victorian Government
partnered with the Commonwealth
                                                  Central Highlands                                    Wimmera Southern Mallee
Scientific and Industrial Research
                                                  climate projections 2019                             climate projections 2019
Organisation (CSIRO) to help communities
prepare for climate change by developing                   Maximum and minimum daily                            Maximum and minimum daily
local-scale climate projections data for                   temperatures will continue                           temperatures will continue
Victoria at a five-by-five-kilometre scale.                to increase over this century                        to increase over this century
                                                           (very high confidence)                               (very high confidence)
Projections for Central Highlands and
Wimmera Southern Mallee are depicted in
figures 3 and 4. They conclude the climate                 By the 2030s, increases in daily                     By the 2030s, increases in daily
                                                           maximum temperature of                               maximum temperature of
of Horsham may be more like the current
                                                           0.9 to 1.7°C                                         0.9 to 1.8°C
climate of Deniliquin by 2050 and Ballarat’s               (since the 1990s) are expected                       (since the 1990s) are expected
climate may be more like that of Hamilton.

                                                           Rainfall will continue to be very                    Rainfall will continue to be very
                                                           variable over time, but over the                     variable over time, but over the
                                                           long term it is expected to continue                 long term it is expected to continue
                                                           to decline in winter and spring                      to decline in winter and spring
                                                           (medium to high confidence) and                      (medium to high confidence) and
                                                           autumn (low to medium confidence),                  autumn (low to medium confidence),
                                                           but with some chance of little change                but with some chance of little change

                                                           Extreme rainfall events are                          Extreme rainfall events are
                                                           expected to become more intense                      expected to become more intense
                                                           on average through the century                       on average through the century
                                                           (highconfidence) but remain very                    (highconfidence) but remain very
                                                           variable in space and time                           variable in space and time

                                                           By the 2050s, the climate of                         By the 2050s, the climate of
                                                           Ballaratcould be more like the                      Horsham could be more like the
                                                           current climate of Hamilton                          current climate of Deniliquin

                                               Figure 3: CSIRO climate projections                 Figure 4: CSIRO climate projections
                                               for Central Highlands                               for Wimmera Southern Mallee

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In developing this Strategy, stakeholders
explored plausible future scenarios both
for the extent of climate change, based on
CSIRO projections, and for the decisiveness                                                         Well
of the Region’s adaptive responses                                                                adapted
(see Appendix 1). Scenarios are a method
for making sense of a complex, dynamic
environment to improve decision making.
They allow us to reconsider our current
actions and identify and test new ideas to                                                      A              B
                                                                                     Global carbon             Regional leaders are
help shape the future, even though there is                                 emissions are net zero             collaborating and
more than one possible version of the future                                  by 2050 and regional             responding effectively,
                                                                               leaders are working             despite lack of global
for which we need to plan. Figure 5 depicts
                                                                            together effectively to            contraint on carbon
the scenarios explored:                                                        manage a changing               emissions and temperature
                                                                            landscape and society              rises of more than
                                                                                                               2.5ºC expected by 2100

                                                   Medium                                                                                          High
                                                  emissions                                                                                      emissions
                                                                                                C              D
                                                                             The Region as a whole             Continued high carbon
                                                                            has not invested in the            emissions combined
                                                                             interventions needed,             with a poor adaptive
                                                                                  placing strain on            response have left the
                                                                        ecosystems, communities,               Grampians Region
                                                                        economies and vulnerable               exposed to unbearable
                                                                          people, despite reaching             pressure and a bleak future
                                                                        net zero emissions globally

                                                                                                    Not
                                                                                                  adapted

                                               Figure 5: Plausible future scenarios for the Grampians Region in 2050

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                                Adaptation themes
                                 This section of the Strategy highlights
                                 current climate adaptation planning and
                                                                                                          Community-led
                                 work under way, as well as opportunities and
                                 barriers for each of eight themes: agriculture;                          action is a powerful
                                 biodiversity; economy; fire; health and                                  way to adapt,
                                 wellbeing; heat; storms and flooding; and
                                 water. While each is explored separately                                 promoting social
                                 here, they are in fact interconnected.                                   cohesion, behaviour
                                 The complexity of climate change requires
                                 systems thinking to understand how each
                                                                                                          change and
                                 theme affects the others and what this may                               protecting individual
                                 mean in an uncertain future.19 Appendix 2
                                                                                                          and community
                                 addresses this complexity directly, seeking to
                                 ensure a climate response in one sector does                             wellbeing in the face
                                 not have unintended negative consequences                                of climate change.20
                                 for another.
                                                                                                          It also makes
                                 Much of the work listed on the following
                                 pages relates to that of governments and                                 a vital contribution
                                 agencies but it is important to recognise the                            to the economy.21
                                 importance of community-led action. 2021

                                 19 L Acaroglu, ‘Tools for Systems Thinkers: The 6 Fundamental Concepts of Systems Thinking,’ Disruptive Design (blog), accessed
                                    25 February 2021: medium.com/disruptive-design/tools-for-systems-thinkers-the-6-fundamental-concepts-of-systems-thinking-
                                    379cdac3dc6a.
                                 20 S Burke, The Climate Change Empowerment Handbook: Psychological strategies to tackle climate change. Australian Psychological
                                    Society, Melbourne, 2017.
                                 21 Victoria Department of Planning and Community Development, The Economic Value of Volunteering in Victoria, Victorian
                                    Government, Melbourne, 2012.

Image: Community garden by Craig Moodie                                                               Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025        14
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Unlocking this potential is key to scaling                               Community organisations in the Region                                    The Australian ClimateWorks report,
timely adaptation. However, traditional                                  are working on local solutions through                                   Decarbonisation Futures, states that a 1.5
models of dependence on volunteerism                                     programs, pilots and educational initiatives                             degree limit is ‘within reach’, but only ‘if
are not sustainable and the complexity                                   that address local food production, energy                               governments, businesses and individuals
of climate change and the cumulative                                     security, retrofitting homes to improve                                  go ‘all-in’ by 2035’.24 In many cases, local
impact it may have on individuals and                                    thermal efficiency, water conservation, fire                             groups in the Grampians Region have been
groups and their ability to contribute must                              management techniques and provision                                      working on climate change mitigation and
be considered.                                                           of free or low-cost services for our most                                adaptation actions for decades.
                                                                         vulnerable.23
Local Country Fire Authority (CFA)                                                                                                                One pertinent example of community-led
brigades and Victoria’s State Emergency                                  Much expertise exists within the Region                                  action is the Hepburn shire masterplan for
Service (SES) volunteers are pivotal                                     around practices for permaculture,                                       their Zero Net Emission Transition (Z-NET).
to the Grampians Region’s local response                                 community energy and regenerative                                        As the location of the first community-owned
to extreme climatic events. As these events                              farming, as well as the broader themes of                                wind farm and the first and still the only
rise in frequency and bushfire seasons                                   biodiversity and land conservation.                                      zero-net energy town of Daylesford, the plan
extend in length and regularity, how these                                                                                                        is to make the entire shire zero-net energy by
                                                                         This grassroots expertise and associated
important groups remain resilient is of                                                                                                           2025 and zero-net emissions by 2030.
                                                                         community actions frequently cross
particular importance.22
                                                                         multiple areas of the eight adaptation
                                                                         themes addressed in this Strategy and can
                                                                         simultaneously deliver on climate change
                                                                         mitigation needs.

22 A Davies, ‘As bushfire season approaches, we need to take action to recruit more volunteer firefighters,’ The Conversation, 17 September 2020, accessed 25 February 2021: theconversation.com/as-bushfire-
   season-approaches-we-need-to-take-action-to-recruit-more-volunteer-firefighters-146290.
23 Parliament of Victoria, Inquiry into Tackling Climate Change in Victorian Communities (Final Report), Parliament of Victoria, Melbourne, 2020, accessed 25 February 2021: www.parliament.vic.gov.au/epc-la/
   inquiries/inquiry/967.
24 C Butler, A Denis-Ryan, R Kelly, I Stewart, and T Yankos, Decarbonisation Futures: Solutions, actions and benchmarks for a net zero emissions Australia, ClimateWorks Australia, Melbourne, 2020, accessed 25
   February 2021: www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/decarbonisation-futures-solutions-actions-and-benchmarks-for-a-net-zero-emissions-australia/.

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                                   Agriculture

                                    The agricultural sector is already making
                                    a major contribution to the Region’s
                                                                                                            Adaptation is
                                    efforts to adapt to a changing climate.
                                    CSIRO projections show how much regional                                protecting agricultural
                                    agriculture has at stake in the success of                              land, managing risks,
                                    adaptation efforts. The Grampians New
                                    Energy Taskforce Grampians Regional                                     profitability, resilience
                                    Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions (R2Z)25                                   and opportunities in a
                                    shows how agriculture will make the
                                    greatest sectoral contribution to the Region’s
                                                                                                            changing climate.
                                    emissions reduction effort.
                                    Agriculture in the Grampians is increasingly
                                    science-driven and sophisticated in its
                                    responses to changing environmental and
                                    economic circumstances. With government
                                    and community support and with clear
                                    strategic coordination, this contribution will
                                    continue to grow. For more information on
                                    this topic see Appendix 3.

                                    25 Grampians New Energy Taskforce, Grampians Regional Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions, GNET, Ballarat, 2020.

Image: Sheep at a Wimmera feed lot by Agriculture Victoria                                              Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025   16
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 ADAPTATION PLANS                  LEAD                                Leading opportunities                            Main barriers
 AND ACTIONS                       AGENCY
 ALREADY UNDERWAY
                                                                       • Optimising soil functionality by               • Market disincentives to adaptation26
 Assessing impacts of              Monash University
                                                                         maintaining or increasing soil carbon
 extreme temperatures                                                                                                   • Regulatory and policy frameworks that
 on wheat crops in north                                                 levels.
                                                                                                                          discourage innovation and lack of stimulus
 western Victoria
                                                                       • Conserving soil moisture by                      that can be relied on for long-term change
 Climate signals and               Grains Research                       maintaining ground cover in pasture              and commercial investment.
 variety development               and Development
                                   Corporation                           and cropping systems.
                                                                                                                        • Road and rail freight distances and cost.
 Smart Farms Initiative            Multi agency approach               • Embracing new technology.
                                                                                                                        • Lack of practical and proven models for
                                                                       • Sharing agricultural adaptation knowledge        agriculture under climate change.
 Grains Innovation Park            State government with
                                                                         eg. lessons from the WA wheat belt.
 world-class research              research partners                                                                    • Lack of development of a bio-economy to
 facility
                                                                       • Reversing population trends by providing         provide a market for agricultural biomass.
 Strong, Innovative,               Agriculture Victoria                  employment opportunities for rural youth.
 Sustainable agriculture
                                                                                                                        • Lack of experienced consultants,
 strategy and Agriculture                                              • Insurance incentives for sustainable             contractors, and suppliers/installers of
 Energy Investment Plan                                                  agriculture.                                     advanced systems.
 Biochar trials                    Glenelg Hopkins
                                                                       • Farm diversification including biochar,        • Lack of financial stimulus for carbon
                                   Catchment Management
                                   Authority                             bio-fuels, agritourism and niche industries.     sequestration.

 Annual trails                     Birchip Cropping                    • Intensification and water efficient food       • Lack of bipartisan policy at state and
                                   Group                                 production systems eg. horticulture.             federal level.
 Public-private                    Eg. Longerenong                     • Opportunities for pipeline/reuse water         • Water utilities have limited capacity and
 partnerships                      DATA farm
                                                                         eg. west Grampians pipeline.                     permission to invest in climate adaptation
 Regenerative agriculture          Catchment                                                                              except where externally funded.
 programs, regional                management                          • Financial incentives to encourage
 catchment strategies              authorities                           ‘mosaic’ and other farm practice change
 and NRM plans for
 climate change                                                          as outlined in R2Z.

 Soil Moisture Network             Wimmera Catchment                   • Commodity price rises due to
                                   Management Authority                  climate change will help provide capital
 Grampians Regional                Grampians New
                                                                         for agricultural adaptation.
 Roadmap to Net Zero               Energy Taskforce
 Emissions (R2Z)

26 Farmers for Climate Action, Our Vision: Farming Forever, FCA, Melbourne, 2018

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                                 Biodiversity

                                  The preservation of biodiversity values and
                                  enhancement of environmental resilience
                                                                                                          Adaptation is building
                                  is of vital importance for the function of
                                  ecosystems, persistence of wildlife, public                             species and ecosystem
                                  health and agriculture, as well as for urban                            resilience and
                                  amenity and visitor attraction. Changes to
                                  temperature, rainfall, storm and fire patterns                          functionality to ensure
                                  are already putting species and ecosystems                              long-term viability.
                                  at risk27 across the Region. There are strong
                                  and viable strategies to respond, but they will
                                  require urgent, focused coordination and a
                                  greater willingness to invest than has been
                                  the case to date.

                                  27 Impacts of Climate Change, South West Climate Change portal, viewed 30 March 2021
                                     www.swclimatechange.com.au/cb_pages/environmental_impacts.php

Image: Large old tree by Andrew Thomas                                                                Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025   18
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 ADAPTATION PLANS                 LEAD                                Leading opportunities                                                 Main barriers
 AND ACTIONS                      AGENCY
 ALREADY UNDERWAY
                                                                      • Protecting existing natural assets                                  • Declining wildlife and genetic diversity
 Biodiversity 2037 and            DELWP
                                                                        and remnants28.                                                       due to fragmentation and maladaptation.
 Biodiversity Response
 Planning                                                             • Climate-sensitive restoration/revegetation.                         • Scarcity and pollution of water.
 Biolinks                         Community networks
                                                                      • Connected habitats and protection                                   • Increases in fire activity mean that
                                  and alliances
                                                                        of refugia29.                                                         eucalypt biomes become increasingly
 Future Landscapes28              Deakin University                                                                                           prevalent, at the expense of alternate
                                                                      • Coordinated threat management
                                                                                                                                              ecosystems.
 Municipal biodiversity           Local governments                     at the landscape scale (pest, plant,
 strategies                       across the Region                     animal, disease).                                                   • Land use change, human population
 Regional catchment               Catchment                                                                                                   growth and development.
                                                                      • Online natural resource management
 strategies, NRM plans for        management
 climate change, regional         authorities and
                                                                        (NRM) portals and public information                                • Lack of coherence in economic and
 waterway strategies and          DELWP Aboriginal                      sources eg. south west climate change                                 funding incentives is compounded by
 adaptation pathways              water programs                        NRM portal.                                                           fragmented strategy and leadership across
 Revegetation and                 Landcare networks                                                                                           stakeholder groups.
                                                                      • Adaptation pathways approaches
 other projects
                                                                        to NRM planning for natural assets.                                 • Biodiversity values impacted by other
 Victorian Land Cover             DELWP and CSIRO                                                                                             climate adaptation responses and
 Time Series                                                          • Optimal environmental water flows.
                                                                                                                                              competing agendas eg. Bushfire
 Cultural flows studies           DELWP, CMAs and                     • Incentivise land use practices that                                   Management Overlays, land clearing for
 (catchment level)                Traditional Owners                    value biodiversity.                                                   housing development, water diversions.
 Climate Future Plots             Universities, catchment
                                                                      • Identify the transformational actions
                                  management
                                  authorities and local                 and tipping points that might be
                                  conservation groups                   required to improve biodiversity
 Wetland conservation             CMAs and Nature                       outcomes for the Region.
                                  Glenelg Trust
                                                                      • Research to overcome key knowledge
 Threatened species               Government,                           gaps at species, community and
 management                       non-government
                                  organisations and
                                                                        landscape scales.
                                  universities
                                                                      • Better management of plague/pest
                                                                        animal species.

28 Faggian et al., Central Highlands Plan, 2016.
29 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and
   greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, United Nations, New York, 2019, accessed 25 February 2021: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/Edited-SPM_Approved_Microsite_FINAL.pdf.

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                                   Economy

                                   A changing climate drives changes to
                                   the regional economy, which can be
                                                                                        Adaptation is
                                   forced upon unprepared businesses and
                                   used opportunistically by others. Many               embracing the
                                   now see the cost-effectiveness of taking             circular economy by
                                   action to mitigate and adapt to climate
                                   change, despite lack of policy certainty and         redesigning processes,
                                   government incentives. How the Grampians             recycling waste
                                   Region can manage these changes as it
                                   moves towards a circular economy will be a
                                                                                        materials and water,
                                   major factor in determining the quality of the       and generating local
                                   Region’s adaptive efforts overall. For more
                                                                                        renewable energy.
                                   information on this topic see Appendix 4.

Image: Sturt Street Ballarat by DELWP                                               Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025   20
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ADAPTATION PLANS           LEAD                     Leading opportunities                            Main barriers
AND ACTIONS                AGENCY
ALREADY UNDERWAY
                                                    • Regional processing of                         • Limited access to affordable
Community-owned            Hepburn Wind,
                                                      agricultural product.                            energy sources and long-term
energy                     Natimuk Community
                           Energy                                                                      price agreements.
                                                    • Onsite energy generation with solar
Onsite energy              Gekko Systems,             panels, methane recovery (eg. landfill)        • Limited electricity grid
generation                 McCain, Meredith           and/or bioenergy.                                infrastructure capacity.
eg. solar, biomass         Dairy, Trigg Farm,
                           Berrybank Farm,          • Upgrades to improve thermal                    • The vulnerability of electricity supply
                           Beaufort Hospital,
                           Skipton Hospital,          efficiency and reduce energy use/cost            to outages and impacts on worker
                           Frew Foods and others      of buildings.                                    productivity during heatwaves.
Power purchase             Mars with Kiamal         • Use of recycled water.                         • Large distances make transporting
agreements (PPAs)          Solar Farm, Melbourne
                                                                                                       materials and goods costly or unviable.
                           Renewable Energy         • Power purchase agreements (PPAs) with
                           Project with Crowlands
                                                      local renewable energy developments.           • Proportional regulatory requirements
                           and Yaloak South
                           wind farms                                                                  around food safety.
                                                    • Resource-efficient food
Public-private             Eg. Longerenong            production systems.                            • Thermally inefficient
partnerships               DATA Farm, Grains                                                           commercial premises.
                           Innovation Park          • Grow artisanal food sector and community
                                                      supported agriculture.                         • Lack of regulatory requirements
Crop substitution with     Wine industry
more climate-tolerant                                                                                  to incorporate climate adaptation
                                                    • Microgrids and virtual power plants.
grape varieties                                                                                        measures in new buildings, including
                                                    • Municipal Recovery Facility (MRF) to sort        thermal efficiency and solar power.
Cultivation of             Dja Dja Wurrung with
indigenous foods           Dalki Garringa Nursery     and process recyclable materials regionally.
                                                                                                     • The scale of economic upheaval in
Guidance notes             Reserve Bank             • Develop markets for waste products               response to external shocks and trade
for governance             of Australia,              and recycling
of climate risk            Australian Securities
                                                                                                       policies may limit the capacity to invest
                           and Investments          • Spending by governments in response              in further economic reform.
                           Commission and
                           Australian Prudential      to the pandemic should consider                • Partisanship and ‘culture wars’ may
                           Regulation Authority       climate implications.                            have reduced Australia’s ability
Insurance accessibility    Insurance companies      • Circular economy food hub as outlined            to cooperate in innovative responses
and cost implications
                                                      in the R2Z.                                      to changing circumstances.
for not addressing
climate risk to business

Grampians Regional         Grampians New Energy
Roadmap to Net Zero        Taskforce
Emissions (R2Z)

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                                 Fire

                                 Fire activity in the Grampians Region is
                                 growing more frequent and severe. Spring
                                                                                                            Adaptation is
                                 seasons in south eastern Australia are
                                 generally growing hotter and drier, while                                  preparing for earlier
                                 rainfalls generally are declining or arriving                              and longer seasons
                                 later.30 The imperative for adaptation is to
                                 support prevention and preparedness efforts                                of more intense and
                                 on private land and make investments in                                    widespread fire.
                                 fire-prone communities. This will include
                                 innovations in building, land and water
                                 management approaches and increasing
                                 resilience of communities. These may draw
                                 on traditional knowledge, local practices
                                 and research.

                                 30 Bureau of Meteorology, State of the Climate 2020, Australian Government, Canberra, 2020, accessed 25 February 2021:
                                    www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/australias-changing-climate.shtml.

Image: Planned burn near Linton by DELWP                                                                Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025   22
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 ADAPTATION PLANS                LEAD                               Leading opportunities                                                Main barriers
 AND ACTIONS                     AGENCY
 ALREADY UNDERWAY
                                                                    • Increase fire resistance of the                                    • Dwindling populations in rural
 Municipal emergency             Local governments
                                                                      built environment.                                                   and remote communities reduce
 management plans                across the Region
                                                                                                                                           available personnel.
                                                                    • Improve the resilience of fire prone
 Grampians Regional              Regional Emergency
 Emergency Management            Management Planning                  communities so they can recover more                               • Earlier onset of fire seasons leading to fire
 Plan                            Committee (REMPC)                    quickly if impacted by fire.                                         fighter exhaustion.
 State Emergency                 Emergency                          • Early detection, response and                                      • Availability of water for fire-fighting
 Management Plan                 Management Victoria
                                 (EMV)                                monitoring of fires.                                                 due to sustained drought.

 Fire emergency response         Country Fire                       • Embedding climate change                                           • Public apathy on undertaking prevention
                                 Authority (CFA),                     researchers within disaster risk                                     works around homes and properties.
                                 Fire Rescue Victoria
                                                                      management agencies.32
                                 (FRV) and Forest Fire                                                                                   • Public resistance to alternate fuel
                                 Management Victoria
                                 (FFMV)
                                                                    • Sustaining the volunteer base of rural                               management options such as mechanical
                                                                      and remote communities is essential                                  harvesting to reduce fuel.
 Victorian Traditional           Victorian Traditional
                                                                      for social and economic recovery from
 Owner Cultural Fire             Owner Cultural Fire                                                                                     • Health impacts associated with smoke
 Strategy31                      Knowledge Holder                     Covid and other shocks.33
                                                                                                                                           from bushfires and planned burning.
                                 Group
                                                                    • Sharing of cultural burning
 Goathand Cooperative            Hepburn Shire Council                knowledge and practice maintained
                                 with Federation
                                 University                           by Traditional Owners.

 Strategic Bushfire              DELWP, CFA and FRV                 • Streamline replacement and
 Management Planning                                                  compensation arrangements for
 Community Based                 DELWP, CFA and FRV                   households that get burnt out
 Bushfire Management                                                  (especially where no permit to rebuild
 Community Fireguard             CFA
                                                                      is likely, due to fire risk).

 Victorian Emergency             EMV
 Management Reform
 White Paper

31 Victorian Traditional Owner Cultural Fire Knowledge Holder Group, The Victorian Traditional Owner Cultural Fire Strategy, DELWP, Melbourne, 2018.
32 M Howes, D Grant-Smith, K Reis, K Bosomworth, P Tangney, M Heazle, D McEvoy & P Burton, Rethinking disaster risk management and climate change adaptation, National Climate Change Adaptation
   Research Facility, Gold Coast, 2013.
33 R Wyatt, S Young, Y Medani & M Rielly, Volunteering, Participatory Action and Social Cohesion: Reimagining volunteering for contemporary Australia, ThinkImpact, Melbourne, 2020.

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                                Health and wellbeing

                                Climate change affects health in many
                                ways: directly by the increased intensity and
                                                                                    Adaptation is
                                frequency of extreme weather events such as
                                prolonged heatwaves, floods and bushfires;          minimising the direct
                                and indirectly through worsening air quality,       and indirect impacts
                                changes in the spread of infectious diseases,
                                risks to food safety and drinking water             of climate change
                                quality, and effects on mental health. The          on people’s health
                                impacts of climate change are now being
                                experienced by everyone, acknowledging
                                                                                    and wellbeing.
                                that these risks are especially pronounced
                                among people who are vulnerable to heat
                                and other climate related illnesses and their
                                impacts. The Grampians Region will need to
                                adapt its housing and infrastructure in order
                                to protect communities and support mental
                                health across the Region.

Image: Runners at Lake Wendouree by DELWP                                       Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025   24
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 ADAPTATION PLANS                 LEAD                       Leading opportunities                          Main barriers
 AND ACTIONS                      AGENCY
 ALREADY UNDERWAY
                                                             • Influence municipal ‘10-year                 • Climate change affects people before
 Victorian Public                 Department of Health
                                                               community vision’ and other local              action is taken and the scale and urgency
 Health and Wellbeing
 Plan34 and guidance for                                       government plans and strategies.               of adaptation needed may be easily missed.
 tackling climate change
                                                             • Improving awareness of the stress            • Climate change increases the disincentives
 Municipal health and             Local governments            caused by current and future                   for people to undertake outdoor activity.
 wellbeing plans                  across the Region
                                                               climate impacts.
                                                                                                            • Declining and ageing populations in rural
 Climate action and health        Primary care
 promotion programs               partnerships               • Telehealth can support conversations           and remote communities pose public
                                                               about climate-related health impacts           health challenges and reduce volunteerism
 Place-based community            Neighbourhood
 education programs               houses                       and how to adapt.                              for provision of community services.

 Rural outreach programs          Health providers           • Capitalise on opportunities when             • Many households remain dependent
                                  partnerships                 communities are together to promote            on cars and roads for their main
 Rural People; Resilient          RMIT Centre for
                                                               health and wellbeing.                          transport needs.
 Futures pilot project            Urban Research
                                                             • Local place-based groups adapting            • Limited community understanding
 Support programs for             Federal, state and           to health and wellbeing impacts of             of the link between climate and health.
 communities impacted             local governments
                                                               climate change.
 by extreme weather                                                                                         • Increased instances of blue-green algae
 eg. flood, fire, drought                                    • Climate adaptation education                   impacting water quality for recreation,
 Food Strategy 2019–2022          City of Ballarat             and training for municipal, health             agriculture and drinking.
                                                               sector and community planners.
                                                                                                            • Costs associated with mental health-
 Community food swaps             Neighbourhood houses
 and community gardens            and community groups       • Increased use of active transport options.     related impacts of climate change, such
                                                                                                              as impacts due to drought.
                                                             • Low cost town infrastructure and
                                                               asset upgrades eg. bus stop shelters and     • Old housing stock lacks thermal efficiency
                                                               public drinking water fountains.               resulting in high household energy costs.
                                                                                                            • Single-wire earth return (SWER)
                                                                                                              transmission lines are switched off to
                                                                                                              manage fire risk on hot days and electricity
                                                                                                              ‘brown-outs’ are also more frequent.

34 Public Health and Wellbeing Plan 2019-2023 (DHHS 2019).

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                                  Heat

                                   Increased heat is the most direct
                                   consequence of climate change and
                                                                                                             Adaptation is preparing
                                   heatwaves are the cause of more deaths than
                                   any other natural hazard.35 The Grampians                                 for more extreme
                                   Region will experience increasingly frequent,                             heat in the built
                                   lengthy and intense heatwaves. They will
                                   drive disruptions to agricultural production,                             environment and its
                                   supply of fresh food, industry productivity,                              impacts on people.
                                   outdoor work, sport/recreation, energy
                                   security in times of peak demand and
                                   transport delays across the Region, as well
                                   as to ecosystems and biodiversity.

                                   35 Health.Vic, Extreme Heat and Heatwaves (web page), Victorian Government, accessed 25 February 2021: www2.health.vic.gov.au/public-
                                      health/environmental-health/climate-weather-and-public-health/heatwaves-and-extreme-heat/heatwave-research.

Image: Lake Wartook in Grampians National Park by Janene Trickey                                         Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025      26
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 ADAPTATION PLANS                  LEAD                                  Leading opportunities                                                    Main barriers
 AND ACTIONS                       AGENCY
 ALREADY UNDERWAY
                                                                         • Embed heatwave planning into                                           • Many of the heat management
 Public Health and                 Department of Health
                                                                           municipal health and wellbeing and                                       challenges are with existing buildings
 Wellbeing Plan
 2019–2023                                                                 emergency management plans.36                                            and infrastructure, especially
                                                                         • Mitigation strategies to reduce                                          heritage buildings.
 Municipal health and              Local governments
 wellbeing and emergency           across the Region                       household energy consumption                                           • Where heat causes declines in
 management plans
                                                                           are also good adaptation strategies.                                     productivity, it affects the Region’s
 Grampians Regional                Regional Emergency
                                                                         • Using green financing options to                                         economy, which in turn affects
 Emergency                         Management Planning
 Management Plan                   Committee (REMPC)                       encourage uptake of energy efficiency                                    local capacity to invest in climate
                                                                           and climate adaptation measures.                                         adaptations.
 State Emergency                   Emergency
 Management Plan                   Management Victoria                   • Increased urban tree canopies, river                                   • Criteria for inclusion on the Vulnerable
                                   (EMV)
                                                                           green links, water sensitive urban                                       Persons Register is restrictive.
 Cool It                           Central Victorian                       design and refuges from the heat and                                   • High demand for electricity on hot
                                   Greenhouse Alliance
                                                                           cold weather for vulnerable people.                                      days can impact the reliability of the
 Urban tree canopy                 Local governments                     • Community resilience strategies                                          transmission network.
 projects                          across the Region
                                                                           that emphasise looking out for our
                                                                                                                                                  • Tree planting programs may not
 Municipal renewable               Local governments                       neighbours can increase the social
 energy targets and power          across the Region                                                                                                select drought-tolerant species or allow
 purchase agreements                                                       capital of those communities.37
                                                                                                                                                    for ongoing maintenance costs.
 Heat Health Plan (2020),          Department of Health
                                                                         • Working with developers to improve
                                                                                                                                                  • Economic settings and planning
 heat health advice/               and local governments                   the quality of new housing stock above
 communications and                                                                                                                                 rules often work against community
                                                                           minimum standards.
 local heat planning                                                                                                                                solutions, which makes heat harder
                                                                         • Retrofitting existing buildings for                                      and more expensive for communities
 Strategic use of shade            Eg. Horsham Livestock
 for outdoor work areas            Exchange                                thermal efficiency.                                                      to manage.
 Victoria Energy                   Department of                         • Extensive roadside land can be planted out
 Upgrades                          Environment, Land,                      for tree canopy cover and heat reduction.
                                   Water and Planning
                                                                         • Research can identify affordable and
                                                                           accessible ways to retrofit established
                                                                           buildings for greater thermal performance
                                                                           and energy efficiency.

36 Yarriambiack Shire Council, Yarriambiack Heatwave Plan 2015-2018 (revised version), Yarriambiack Shire Council, Warracknabeal, 2016.
37 National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Flooding in Australia: Enhancing disaster resilience and adaptability, NCCARF, Southport (Qld), 2013.

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                        Storms and flooding

                        The Grampians Region will experience
                        increasingly frequent and severe storm
                                                                         Adaptation is
                        activity over the coming decades,
                        including increased incidence and                preparing for increased
                        severity of riverine, urban stormwater and       and more intense
                        flash flooding. This will have disruptive
                        consequences for households, industry and        storms and flooding.
                        public infrastructure, transport and power
                        transmission. Clever adaptation can head
                        off the foreseeable productivity downturns
                        and health impacts around storm and
                        flood events.

Image: Storm by DELWP                                                Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025   28
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 ADAPTATION PLANS                 LEAD                                Leading opportunities                                                 Main barriers
 AND ACTIONS                      AGENCY
 ALREADY UNDERWAY
                                                                      • Using sophisticated research                                        • Much of the existing building stock is
 FloodZoom                        DELWP
                                                                        to inform planning and preparation                                    vulnerable to storms and flooding.
                                                                         for storms and floods.
 Flood damage                     State Emergency                                                                                           • Mitigating flood risks requires cooperation
 emergency response               Service (SES)                       • New approaches to floodplain                                          from diverse public and private land users.
 Local flood guides               SES, catchment                        management mean less severe flood                                     Even where the legislation is in place to
                                  management                            events, and more productive retention                                 accelerate action, effective adaptation
                                  authorities and local
                                  governments
                                                                        of water in the land between events.                                  requires broad buy-in from stakeholders.

 Municipal flood                  SES and local
                                                                      • Data-driven approaches can enable                                   • Declining and ageing populations
 emergency plans                  governments across                    more optimal deployment of                                            in rural and regional communities tend
                                  the Region                            emergency services and better workload                                to diminish the resources available for
 Grampians Regional               Regional Emergency                    management for their personnel.                                       emergency preparedness and response
 Emergency Management             Management Planning                                                                                         in those locations.
 Plan                             Committee (REMPC)                   • Building preparedness for emergencies
                                                                        also builds community resilience and                                • Recovery funding only rebuilds ‘like for
 State Emergency                  Emergency
 Management Plan                  Management Victoria                   social capital.39                                                     like’, rather than more climate adapted
                                  (EMV)                                                                                                       infrastructure.
                                                                      • Streamline replacement and
 Integrated water                 Water corporations                    compensation arrangements for flooded
 management forums                and catchment
                                  management
                                                                        homes (especially where no permit to
                                  authorities                           rebuild is likely, due to flood risk).
 Municipal emergency              Local governments                   • Switch the planning focus onto predicted
 management plans38               across the Region
                                                                        flood levels, rather than historical
 Floodplain management            Catchment                             maximum levels.
 strategies                       management
                                  authorities

 Victorian Rural                  DELWP
 Drainage Strategy

38 Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), Guidelines for Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Supplies, Victorian Government, Melbourne, 2016.
39 Moorabool Shire Council, Moorabool Shire Sustainable Environment Strategy 2016–26, Moorabool Shire Council, Ballan, 2016.

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                                      Water

                                      Water use in Western Victoria already offers
                                      strong illustrations of adaptation in response
                                                                                                                Adaptation is
                                      to a changing climate. Lower than average
                                      regional rainfall since the 1990s has affected                            changing the way
                                      the health of aquatic systems and supplies,                               we think about and
                                      but strategic water infrastructure (such as
                                      pipeline projects) has enabled towns and                                  use water to increase
                                      communities to keep their meters ticking                                  resilience to long-term
                                      with less reliance on household-level water
                                      restrictions than previously.
                                                                                                                climate change.
                                      Mineral springs are a particularly significant
                                      water resource in the Grampians Region,
                                      since 80 per cent of Australia’s catalogued
                                      mineral springs are found in the Daylesford
                                      and Macedon Ranges area.40 Understanding
                                      that we need to maximise the value of water
                                      for the environment and communities
                                      is a core value for the Strategy. For more
                                      information on this topic see Appendix 5.

                                      40 Hepburn Shire Council, Fertile Ground: Hepburn Shire Economic Development Strategy 2016-2021, Hepburn Shire Council, Daylesford,
                                         2016, p. 67.

Image: Glenelg River at Harrow by Chris Fithall via Flickr                                                 Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025       30
T
                                                                                                                                                                                  DRAFT FOR PUBLIC COMMEN

 ADAPTATION PLANS                   LEAD                                  Leading opportunities                                                      Main barriers
 AND ACTIONS                        AGENCY
 ALREADY UNDERWAY
                                                                          • Increased use of recycled water                                          • Less winter and spring rainfall
 Pipeline projects                  Water corporations
                                                                            or alternative water supplies to reduce                                    resulting in reduced surface water and
                                                                            ecological pressure on waterways.                                          groundwater. This will require the ability
 Integrated Water                   Water corporations
 Management forums                  and catchment                                                                                                      to balance the needs of all users with
                                                                          • Upgrading water infrastructure
                                    management                                                                                                         scarcer water supplies.
                                    authorities                             for water efficiency gains to balance future
                                                                            needs of all water users and                                             • Population growth (particularly
 Pilot Water Sector                 DELWP
 Adaptation Action Plan
                                                                            the environment.                                                           in the Central Highlands) and land
                                                                                                                                                       use change will place greater demand
 Victorian Rural                    DELWP
                                                                          • Protecting water quality to maintain
                                                                                                                                                       on water resources.
 Drainage Strategy                                                          waterway health and water supply
                                                                            for communities.                                                         • Increased frequency of wildfires is likely
 Regional catchment and             Catchment
 waterway strategies                management                                                                                                         to reduce catchment water yields and
                                                                          • Integrated water management maximises
                                    authorities                                                                                                        supply quality, while exacerbating the
                                                                            biodiversity, social and cultural benefits.
 NRM plans for                      Catchment                                                                                                          fragility of many waterways as ecosystems.
 climate change                     management                            • Reconnecting Traditional Owners
                                    authorities                                                                                                      • Drought tests individual resilience,
                                                                            with water for cultural, economic,
                                                                                                                                                       but it does not typically build
 Stormwater reuse for               Local governments                       customary and spiritual purposes.
 recreational watering              across the Region                                                                                                  community resilience.42
                                                                          • Manage rural drainage to increase
 Western Sustainable                DELWP                                                                                                            • River flows come under increasing threat
                                                                            agricultural production, protect
 Water Strategy                                                                                                                                        with successive dry years.
                                                                            built infrastructure and minimise
 Cultural flows studies             DELWP, CMAs and                         environmental impacts.41                                                 • Blue-green algae is more prevalent
 (catchment level)                  Traditional Owners
                                                                                                                                                       in warmer weather and can affect
                                                                                                                                                       the natural ecosystem and potentially
                                                                                                                                                       affect human health.43

41 Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), Victorian Rural Drainage Strategy, Victorian Government, Melbourne, 2018.
42 HJ Boon, J Millar, D Lake, A Cottrell & D King, ‘Recovery from disaster: Resilience, adaptability and perceptions of climate change. Its effect on perceptions of climate change risk and on adaptive behaviours to
   prevent, prepare, and respond to future climate contingencies,’ National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 2012.
43 Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), Blue-green Algae (webpage), Victorian Government, Melbourne, accessed 25 February 2021: www.water.vic.gov.au/waterways-and-
   catchments/rivers-estuaries-and-waterways/blue-green-algae.

                                                                                                                                                     Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy 2021–2025          31
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