LONG TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS - TOGETHER DEVELOPING ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR FUTURE CLIMATES

 
LONG TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS - TOGETHER DEVELOPING ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR FUTURE CLIMATES
LONG TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS
TOGETHER DEVELOPING ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR FUTURE CLIMATES

                                                      WATER

    environmental affairs
    Department:
    Environmental Affairs
    REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA
LONG TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS - TOGETHER DEVELOPING ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR FUTURE CLIMATES
Replace Replace Replace Replace Replace

                                                                                                                                       LONG-TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS
                                                                                                                                       FLAGSHIP RESEARCH PROGRAMME (LTAS)

                                                                                                                                       CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS
                                                                                                                                       FOR THE WATER SECTOR IN
                                                                                                                                       SOUTH AFRICA
                                                                                                                                       LTAS Phase 1, Technical Report (no. 2 of 6)

                                                                                                                                       The project is part of the International Climate Initiative (ICI), which is supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety.

                                                                                                                                                   environmental affairs
                                                                                                                                                   Department:
                                                                                                                                                   Environmental Affairs
                                                                                                                                                   REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA

When making reference to this technical report, please cite as follows: DEA (Department of Environmental Affairs). 2013.
Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios Flagship Research Programme (LTAS) for South Africa. Climate Change Implications for the Water Sector
in South Africa. Pretoria, South Africa.
      2      LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                                                                                          LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                      1
LONG TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS - TOGETHER DEVELOPING ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR FUTURE CLIMATES
Table of Contents

List of Abbreviations                                                                                                6         1.6   KwaZulu-Natal Coastal Metropolitan Reconciliation Study                                        64

Acknowledgements                                                                                                     8         1.7   Luvuvhu and Letaba Reconciliation Study                                                        65
                                                                                                                               1.8   Mbombela Municipal Area Reconciliation Study                                                   66
The LTAS Phase 1                                                                                                     9
                                                                                                                               1.9   Mhlathuze Reconciliation Study (Richards Bay)                                                  66
Report Overview                                                                                                     10
                                                                                                                               1.10 Olifants Reconciliation Study                                                                   67
Executive Summary                                                                                                   12
                                                                                                                               1.11 Orange Reconciliation Study                                                                     69
1.       Strategic water planning in South Africa                                                                   14         1.12 Vaal Reconciliation Study                                                                       69
         1.1    National planning                                                                                   15
                                                                                                                               1.13 Western Cape Reconciliation Study (DWAF, 2007)                                                  71
         1.2    Water resource system planning                                                                      18
         1.3    Water management area/catchment planning                                                            24   Annex 2: Climate change impacts on water resource system yields (case study)                               75

         1.4    Sub-catchment/municipal planning                                                                    26         2.1   System yield-reliability characteristics under climate change                                  75

2.       Climate change impacts on the water sector                                                                 27         References                                                                                           77
         2.1    Climate change impacts modelling for the water sector                                               27
         2.2    Climate change impacts on national runoff                                                           28
         2.3    Climate change impacts on water quality                                                             29   List of figures
         2.4    Climate change impacts on infrastructure                                                            31
         2.5    Climate change impacts on water services                                                            31   Figure 1. Water resources planning framework in South Africa.                                              14
         2.6    Climate change impacts on human security                                                            31   Figure 2. Water availability and use.                                                                      15

3.       Adaptation response options                                                                                32   Figure 3. Groundwater exploitation potential.                                                              17
         3.1    Integrating adaptation into the water resources planning framework                                  32
                                                                                                                         Figure 4 Groundwater use per WMA.                                                                          18
         3.2    Incorporating climate change adaptation into reconciliation studies                                 36
                                                                                                                         Figure 5. Map for removal of invasive alien species.                                                       18
         3.3    Adaptation priority measures in the Draft Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Water Sector   42
                                                                                                                         Figure 6. Key economic areas in relation to existing water supply system studies.                          20
4.       Research requirements                                                                                      46
                                                                                                                         Figure 7. Water resource development diagram.                                                              22
5.       Conclusion                                                                                                 47
Annex 1: Review of existing reconciliation studies for South Africa                                                 48   Figure 8. Location of the Breede-Overberg WMA.                                                             25

         1.1    Stochastic systems analysis methodology                                                             48   Figure 9. Western Cape Water Supply System augmentation options.                                           26
         1.2    Algoa Reconciliation Study                                                                          55
                                                                                                                         Figure 10. Top down versus bottom up approach to planning.                                                 28
         1.3    Amatole Reconciliation Study (DWA, 2008a)                                                           57
                                                                                                                         Figure 11. P
                                                                                                                                     reliminary projected changes in annual runoff for South Africa
         1.4    Bloemfontein Reconciliation Study(DWA, 2010b)                                                       60              under unconstrained and constrained emissions scenarios.                                        29
         1.5    Crocodile West Reconciliation Study (DWA, 2008b)                                                    63

     2         LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                                                        LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR   3
LONG TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS - TOGETHER DEVELOPING ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR FUTURE CLIMATES
Figure 12. P
            reliminary projected changes in seasonal runoff for spring, summer, autumn and winter                 Figure 34. Water demand for the urban areas in the Crocodile West area.                                    64
           for South Africa under unconstrained and constrained emissions scenarios.                          29
                                                                                                                   Figure 35. Mhlatuze water supply area.                                                                     66
Figure 13. Median impact of climate change on the average annual catchment runoff for the period
                                                                                                                   Figure 36. Water availability and requirements for Mhlatuze.                                               67
            2040–2050 under an unconstrained emission scenario.                                               29
                                                                                                                   Figure 37. Olifants water supply area.                                                                     67
Figure 14. Climate adaptation interventions with reference to the water planning framework.                   32
                                                                                                                   Figure 38. Projected future yield for the Olifants area.                                                   68
Figure 15. Distinction between medium term and long term planning for water, development and climate.         35
                                                                                                                   Figure 39. Water requirements for high growth scenario.                                                    68
Figure 16. Six hydrological zones developed as part of the National Water Adaptation Strategy process,
            reflecting boundaries defined by water management areas (WMAs) in South Africa;                        Figure 40. Water availability and requirements for the Olifants.                                           68
            and grouped according to their climatic and hydrological characteristics.                         37
                                                                                                                   Figure 41. Vaal water supply area.                                                                         70
Figure 17. Key economic areas in relation to existing water supply system studies.                            37
                                                                                                                   Figure 42. Future water requirements for the Vaal.                                                         70
Figure 18. SADC Water Adaptation Cube.                                                                        42
                                                                                                                   Figure 43. Water availability and requirements for the Vaal.                                               70
Figure 19. An example of a typical Water Resources Yield Model (WRYM) configuration.                          52
                                                                                                                   Figure 44. Map of Western Cape Water Supply System.                                                        70
Figure 20. An example of a typical set of outputs from WRYM.                                                  53
                                                                                                                   Figure 45. Historical water use.                                                                           72
Figure 21. An example of a typical box-whisker diagram output series from a Water Resources Planning Model.   54
                                                                                                                   Figure 46. Historical and projected water demand for WCWSS.                                                72
Figure 22. Algoa water supply area.                                                                           55
                                                                                                                   Figure 47. WCWSS reconciliation and supply requirement.                                                    72
Figure 23. Historical water demand for the Algoa area.                                                        56   Figure 48. Preliminary water demand management and water supply options for the WCWSS.                     73
Figure 24. Algoa water requirement scenarios.                                                                 56   Figure 49. WCWSS augmentation options taking into account a 15% reduction in yield.                        74
Figure 25. Water availability and requirements for Algoa.                                                     56   Figure 50. Stochastic yield-reliability characteristics for the five GCM scenarios.                        76
Figure 26. Worst case scenario study for the Algoa system.                                                    57   Figure 51. Average changes in MAR for the Berg pilot study.                                                76

Figure 27. Amatole water supply area.                                                                         58

Figure 28. Amatole water availability and requirements.                                                       59
                                                                                                                   List of tables
Figure 29. Bloemfontein water supply area.                                                                    61

Figure 30. Historical urban water use.                                                                        62   Table 1. Summary of reconciliation studies to date.                                                        23

Figure 31. Water requirement scenarios for Bloemfontein.                                                      62   Table 2. Primary determinants of usable system yield in a surface water resource context.                  49

Figure 32. Water availability and requirements for Bloemfontein.                                              62   Table 3. Average growth in water demand as a function of population and economic growth models.            73

Figure 33. Crocodile West water supply area.                                                                  63   Table 4. Preliminary water demand management and water supply options for the WCWSS.                       74

  4       LTA S: B
                 CLIMATE
                   IOME ADAP
                          CHANGE
                             TATION
                                  IM FR
                                     PLIC
                                        AME
                                          ATION
                                            WORKS FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                                                     LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR   5
LONG TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS - TOGETHER DEVELOPING ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR FUTURE CLIMATES
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ABWSS              Amatole Bulk Water Supply System                                  NMBM       Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality

ACRU               Agricultural Catchments Research Unit                             NWRS       National Water Resource Strategy

ADM                Amathole District Municipality                                    NWRS2      National Water Resource Strategy second edition

AMD	               Acid mine drainage                                                ppm        Parts per million

AWSS               Algoa Water Supply System                                         RSS        Reconciliation strategy study

BOCMA              Breede-Overberg catchment management agency                       SADC       Southern African Development Community

CMA                Catchment management agency                                       SDA        Sewage drainage areas

CMS                Catchment management strategy                                     TCTA       Trans-Caledon Tunnel Authority

DEA                Department of Environmental Affairs                               UCE        Unconstrained emissions

DWA                Department of Water Affairs                                       URV	       Unit reference value

EC                 Ecological category                                               WC/WD	     Water conservation and water demand

EWR                Environmental water requirement                                   WC/WDM     Water conservation and water demand management

FWF WWTW           Fish Water Flats Wastewater Treatment Works                       WCCS       National Climate Change Strategy for Water Resources

GCM                Global circulation model                                          WCDM       Water conservation and demand management

GWS                Ground water strategy                                             WCWSS      Western Cape Water Supply System

HFD	               Hybrid frequency distribution                                     WGDF       Water for Growth and Development Framework

IDZ                Industrial development zone                                       WMA        Water management area

IMS                Information management system                                     WRC        Water Research Commission

ISP                Internal strategic perspective                                    WRPM       Water Resources Planning Model

KNP                Kruger National Park                                              WRSM2000   Water Resources Simulation (Pitman) Model 2000

L1S                level one stabilisation (emissions constrained to 450 ppm CO2e)   WRYM       Water Resources Yield Model

LHWP               Lesotho Highlands Water Project                                   WSAM       Water Situation Assessment Model

m3/km2/a           Cubic metres per square kilometre per annum                       WUA        Water users’ association

MAR                Mean annual runoff                                                WWTW       Wastewater treatment works

  6     LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                 LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR   7
LONG TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS - TOGETHER DEVELOPING ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR FUTURE CLIMATES
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS                                                                                                                       The LTAS Phase 1

The first phase of the Long Term Adaptation Scenario                   DEA and SANBI would also like to acknowledge other              The Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios (LTAS) Flagship
Flagship Research Programme (LTAS) involved numerous                   members of the Project Management Team who                      Research Programme (2012–2014) is a multi-sectoral
people and organisations, and was characterised by a spirit            contributed their time and energy to the development of         research programme, mandated by the South African
of collaboration and cooperation across organisational and             this technical report, namely Mr Shonisani Munzhedziii and      National Climate Change Response White Paper
disciplinary boundaries. The Department of Environmental               Mr Vhalinavho Khavhagali who provided key guidance on           (NCCRP, para 8.8). The LTAS aims to develop national and
Affairs (DEA) and the South African National Biodiversity              behalf of the DEA, Prof. Guy Midgley (SANBI), Ms Sarshen        sub-national adaptation scenarios for South Africa under
Institute (SANBI) would like to thank the Deutsche                     Scorgie and Ms Petra de Abreu (Conservation South               plausible future climate conditions and development
Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) for               Africa) who were key editors of the technical report.           pathways. During its first Phase (completed in June 2013),
technical and financial assistance, under the supervision of           Ms Gigi Laidler served as the SANBI project administrator       fundamental climate modelling and related sector-based
Dr Michaela Braun and Mr Zane Abdul, who also served                   with assistance from Ms Faslona Martin, Mr Nkoniseni            impacts and adaptation scoping were conducted and
on the Project Management Team.                                        Ramavhona who served as DEA project administrator               synthesised. This included an analysis of climate change
                                                                       and Ms Gwendolin Aschmann from GIZ who provided                 trends and projections for South Africa that was compared
DEA and SANBI would like to thank Department of
                                                                       additional project management support. Ms Jaqui                 with model projections for the same time period, and the
Water (DWA) for their partnership in this work and in
                                                                       Stephenson (Environmental Resources Management) and             development of a consensus view of scenarios for three
particular Dr Smangele Mgqubai who served as the focal
                                                                       Mr Dick Cloete (Media Directions) provided preliminary          time periods (short-, medium- and long-term). Scoping of
point from DWA. Specifically, we would like to thank the
                                                                       and final editing of phase 1 products respectively, and         impacts, adaptation options and future research needs,
groups, organisations and individuals who participated and
                                                                       Studio 112 conducted the layout.                                identified in the White Paper and guided by stakeholder
provided technical expertise and key inputs to the Climate
                                                                                                                                       engagement, was conducted for primary sectors namely
Change Implications for the Water Sector technical
                                                                                                                                       water, agriculture and forestry, human health, marine
report, namely Dr Guy Pegram, Ms Traci Reddy and Ms
                                                                                                                                       fisheries, and biodiversity. This modelling and scoping
Naadiya Moosajee (Pegasys), Mr Konstantin Makrelov and
                                                                                                                                       will provide a basis for cross-sectoral and economic
Mr Yogesh Narsing (the National Treasury and National
                                                                                                                                       assessment work needed to develop plausible adaptation
Planning Commission), Dr James Cullis, Alice Change and
                                                                                                                                       scenarios during Phase 2 (scheduled for completion in
Jacque Taljaard (Aurecon), Gerald de Jager and Jonathan
                                                                                                                                       April 2014).
Schroeder (AECOM), Dr Adam Schlosser and Dr Kenneth
Strzepek (Massachusetts Institute of Technology [MIT]),                                                                                Six individual technical reports have been developed
LTAS Technical Working Group members, and members                                                                                      to summarise the findings from Phase 1, including one
of the Climate and Impacts task teams.                                                                                                 technical report on climate trends and scenarios for South
                                                                                                                                       Africa and five summarising the climate change implications
                                                                                                                                       for primary sectors, water, agriculture and forestry, human
                                                                                                                                       health, marine fisheries, and biodiversity. A description
                                                                                                                                       of the key messages emerging from the LTAS Phase 1 has
                                                                                                                                       been developed into a summary for policy-makers; as well
                                                                                                                                       as into seven factsheets constituting the LTAS Climate and
                                                                                                                                       Impacts Factsheet Series.

i   Dr S K Mgquba, Climate Change Research and Advice, Dept of Water Affairs 185 Schoeman Street, Pretoria, 0001 • Tel: 012 336 7183
    • Fax: 012 336 7399 • Cell: 082 654 0315
ii Mr Shonisani Munzhedzi, Department of Environmental Affairs, Climate Change Branch, Chief Directorate Adaptation
   • Tel: +27 (0) 12 395 1730 • Cell: +27 (0) 76 400 0637 • email: SMunzhedzi@environment

    8      LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                                                                          LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR   9
LONG TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS - TOGETHER DEVELOPING ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR FUTURE CLIMATES
Report Overview

This technical report presents the LTAS Phase 1 findings       development in South Africa, and aspects of the WGDF            Chapter 2 (Climate change impacts on the water sector)
for the water sector in South Africa. It references existing   described in section 1.1.1 are now incorporated into the        synthesises results from recent climate change impact
South African research to describe the status quo for          finalised NWRS2 as core strategies. It is recommended           assessments in relation to hydrology, water quality, water
water resource planning in South Africa, including the         that the final NWRS2 (now available on the Department of        use and water supply systems. This includes climate
extent to which climate change is considered in the            Water Affairs (DWA) website: www.dwaf.gov.za) be read           change and hydrological modelling results for the water
existing water resources planning framework, as well           to complement certain sections of the technical report.         sector, namely impacts on national runoff, water resource
as the potential effects of climate change on the water        In terms of its mandate and the strategic imperative            system yields and high risk hydrological zones comprising
sector. This includes an analysis of existing water resource   under the National Climate Change Policy, the DWA is            reconciliation study areas.
planning tools, originally developed to address demand         in the process of developing a climate change adaptation
                                                                                                                               Chapter 3 (Adaptation response options) describes
growth and climate variability, in the context of future       strategy for the water sector. This is being done in two
                                                                                                                               adaptation responses for the water sector against the
climate change requirements. These tools include               phases, beginning with an Assessment Phase, which will
                                                                                                                               backdrop of the water resources planning framework
reconciliation studies (one of the key tools used in South     then inform the Strategy Development Phase.
                                                                                                                               presented in Chapter 1, Section 1.1. This includes
Africa for assessing water use and future requirements)
                                                               Annex 1 of this technical report provides key background        summarising specific interventions for each level and
and water strategy policy documents. This technical
                                                               detail on reconciliation studies and the All Towns Strategies   focus area within the framework, as well as highlighting
report summarises climate change impacts, adaptation
                                                               which are one of the central tools for water resources          priority functions that would be beneficial for the
response options and future research needs for the
                                                               planning at infrastructure system level, and are likely to      DWA, and incorporating climate change adaptation in
water sector based on the results of relevant past and
                                                               be critical elements of a future national response capacity.    reconciliation studies and other water resource planning
current research, including the draft National Water
                                                               These studies and strategies are updated annually with the      tools. An overview of the adaptation measures proposed
Resource Strategy 2 (NWRS2), the National Water
                                                               latest information provided on the Department of Water          in the Draft Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the
Adaptation Strategy process, and new impact modelling
                                                               Affairs website (www.dwaf.gov.za). The information              water sector is also included.
for annual and seasonal runoff under both unconstrained
and constrained pathways from recent modelling work            presented here is based on the data available between
                                                                                                                               Chapter 4 (Research requirements) highlights areas in
conducted by the Treasury and the National Planning            April 2012 and March 2013.
                                                                                                                               which research is required for supporting the development
Commission (Treasury and NPC, 2013).                                                                                           of tools, approaches and case studies that inform water
                                                               A brief description of each chapter of the technical report
                                                               is provided below.                                              planning in the context of long-term climate change.
The NWRS2 defines the strategic direction for water
management in South Africa over the next 20 years,                                                                             Chapter 5 (Conclusion) concludes the report highlighting
                                                               Chapter 1 (Strategic water planning in South Africa)
but also the focuses on water priorities for the next                                                                          the scope of LTAS Phase 2 in exploring the socio-economic
                                                               provides an overview of water resource planning in South
five years (2013–2017). At the time of developing this                                                                         implications of a range of possible climate-water futures
                                                               Africa including at national level, water resource system
technical report the draft NWRS2 had been completed                                                                            in South Africa.
                                                               level, water management area (WMA)/catchment level as
and was under public review. The final NWRS2 was
                                                               well as at the sub-catchment/municipal level. The chapter
approved by the Minister in June 2013. Substantial changes                                                                     Annex 1 (Review of existing reconciliation studies
                                                               has a focus on reconciliation studies, which are the central
were made to the NWRS2 based on the public review                                                                              for South Africa) provides a full description of existing
                                                               tools used at water resources infrastructure system
process and this should be borne in mind when reading                                                                          reconciliation studies with a focus on area of supply,
                                                               level, and includes an assessment of the use and future
this technical report. In particular, the Water for Growth                                                                     hydrological record, assumptions of the study, current
                                                               requirements for water in South Africa and how these
and Development Framework (WGDF) described in                                                                                  and future water requirements, water resource planning
                                                               requirements can be “reconciled” with the available
Section 1.1.1 (National planning) of this report, although                                                                     and climate change considerations. This is linked to the
                                                               sources through various strategies over the next two to
approved by Cabinet, has not been finalised (gazetted).                                                                        summary presented in Chapter 1.
                                                               three decades. The chapter provides a summary of the
The NWRS2 has adopted this framework as a primary
                                                               approach and progress of existing reconciliation studies        Annex 2 Provides an indicative finer scale case study on
tool for management of water resources for growth and
                                                               to date, with a full description presented in Annex 1.          climate change impacts on water resource system yields.

  10      LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                                                                   LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR   11
LONG TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS - TOGETHER DEVELOPING ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR FUTURE CLIMATES
Executive Summary

Because of South Africa’s generally arid to semi-arid          guidance on the likely range of change in rainfall and        Orange River region. Specific areas of high risk, where       flexible and robust infrastructure planning, resources
climate, rainfall and river flow are unpredictable in time     temperature that must be further translated using             cumulative negative climate change impacts are likely         directed at maintaining and rebuilding ecological
and unevenly distributed in space, with only 12% of the        hydrological modelling approaches of projected impacts        to occur (including increased evaporation, decreased          infrastructure in vulnerable systems, institutional
land area generating 50% of potentially available surface      on surface water flows and availability. Based on LTAS        rainfall and decreased runoff), include the southwest         oversight to ensure water-related institutions build
water resources. Decadal rainfall variability also results     Phase 1 findings (see climate trends and scenarios            of the country, the central-western parts and to some         adaptive management capacity, effective information
in extended periodic dry and wet periods across the            technical report), South Africa’s climate future up to        extent the extreme north. Under all four future medium        management and maintenance of monitoring and
country. Surface water resources were already over-            2050 and beyond can be described using four fundamental       and long term climate scenarios a higher frequency of         evaluation systems, and sustainable and locally accessible
allocated by the year 2000 in five of the nineteen water       climate scenarios at national scale, with different degrees   flooding and drought extremes is projected, with the          financial management.
management areas.                                              of change and likelihood that capture the impacts of global   range of extremes exacerbated significantly under the
                                                                                                                                                                                           Research and focused monitoring is required to support
                                                               mitigation and the passing of time.                           unconstrained global emissions scenario.
Demand for water is expected to increase with economic                                                                                                                                     the development of tools, approaches and case studies that
growth, increased urbanisation, higher standards of living,    1.    warmer (3°C above 1961–2000) and drier,
                                                                                                                             changes can be observed with increasing certainty, and
Current national water planning contingencies provide                with a substantial increase in the frequency of                                                                       Key decisions in development planning would benefit
                                                                                                                             adopt flexible planning to allow appropriate responses as
assurance of water supply (based on surface water                    drought events and greater frequency of extreme                                                                       from considering the implications of a range of possible
                                                                                                                             conditions change.
resources) from 91% (for agricultural use) up to as high             rainfall events.                                                                                                      climate-water futures facing South Africa. Under a wetter
as 99.5% for key strategic uses under historic patterns                                                                      Adaptation response strategies for the water sector           future scenario trade-offs in water allocation between
of rainfall variability. Groundwater resources are not         Projections for national runoff range from a 20% reduction                                                                  sectors are likely to be less restrictive, providing greater
                                                                                                                             can usefully be identified at distinct governance levels.
currently fully integrated into the national water strategy,   to a 60% increase by as early as mid-century based on                                                                       scope for urban-industrial economic growth and water
                                                                                                                             At national scale, the development of a strategic intent
though these currently provide about 10% of national           an unmitigated global emissions pathway. However, if                                                                        provision for an intensive irrigated agricultural production
                                                                                                                             and an enabling framework for adaptation would help
needs, being primarily used for irrigation. A key concern      global emissions are constrained to stabilise at 450 ppm                                                                    model. Under a drier future scenario significant trade-offs
                                                                                                                             to ensure a coherent national response. At sub-national
for the water sector is, therefore, whether future rainfall    CO2 , these changes are projected to lie between a 5%                                                                       are likely to occur between developmental aspirations,
                                                                                                                             or system scale, key institutions could usefully engage
variability will exceed patterns based on the historical       decrease and a 20% increase in annual runoff. Sub-                                                                          particularly in terms of the allocation between agricultural
                                                                                                                             in prioritising and allocating resources to adaptation
record. Current modelling of future climate is uncertain       nationally, projected changes range from increases along                                                                    and urban-industrial water use, linked to the marginal
                                                                                                                             interventions that adequately reflect the conditions at
with respect to rainfall variability and seasonality change,   the eastern seaboard and central interior to decreases in                                                                   costs of enhancing water supply. These constraints are
                                                                                                                             that scale. At sub-catchment or municipal scale, the design
but more certain with regard to warming projections.           much of the Western Cape. Areas showing highest risks                                                                       most likely to be experienced in central, northern and
                                                                                                                             of local implementation actions would be facilitated by
Consequently, a scenario-based approach is a viable way        of extreme runoff related events include KwaZulu-Natal,                                                                     south-western parts of South Africa. This scenario has
                                                                                                                             responding to local challenges, resources and capacities.
forward with respect to exploring adaptation options           parts of southern Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape.                                                                          significant social, economic and ecological consequences
for this sector and the cross-sectoral and economic            Other areas show neutral to reduced risk of extreme           The following priority functions would be beneficial to       through restricting the range of viable national
implications. Climate modelling approaches provide             runoff events, with the exception of the central and lower    the DWA: policy review for enabling flexible frameworks,      development pathways.

  12      LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                                                                 LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                13
LONG TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS - TOGETHER DEVELOPING ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR FUTURE CLIMATES
1.          Strategic Water Planning in South Africa

1.          Strategic water planning in South Africa

The water sector has a multifaceted planning regime which                                                                          1.1 National planning
will be central in the development and implementation of                                                                           National planning provides the strategic framework for
adaptive responses to climate change. South Africa has a                                                                           local planning. The overarching plan is the National Water
number of levels of water planning as indicated in (Figure 1).                                                                     Resource Strategy (NWRS). This strategy is required by
Vertically, planning is aligned from national to local level,                                                                      the National Water Act (Act 36 of 1998) and defines
with consistent legal requirements and, as the figure                                                                              the strategic direction for water management in South
indicates broadly, the delegation of responsibilities from                                                                         Africa over the next 20 years, but also the focus on
national level down to local and sub-catchment levels.                                                                             water priorities for the next five years. Under the NWRS
Horizontally, there is cooperation between the three                                                                               there are a number of national thematic plans such as the
broad sectors of water resources management, water                                                                                 National Climate Change Strategy for Water Resources
resources infrastructure, and water services.                                                                                      (WCCS) and the Ground Water Strategy (GWS).

                                                                                                                                   National water services planning is focused largely on
                            National Water Resource Strategy                                                                                                                                      Figure 2. Water availability (blue) and use (green) (DWA, 2009b).
                            (DWA)                                                                                                  financing and monitoring, and on providing a framework
 National                                                                  Water Infrastructure Framework                          with norms and standards for local government to provide
                            National WR Thematic Plans (DWA)                           (DWA)
                            Climate; Groundwater; Pricing;                                                                         water services in terms of its Constitutional Mandate.         that the DWA should focus on adaptation responses, as
                            Alien clearing etc                                                                                                                                                    the mitigation potential in the sector may be relatively
                                                                                                                                   1.1.1    Water for Growth and                                  small (the water sector contributes 1% to total national
 Water                      Catchment Management                                                                                            Development Framework                                 emissions), despite the fact that adaptive responses such
 Resource                   Strategy (CMA)
                                                                                                                                   The draft Water for Growth and Development Framework           as desalination have mitigation implications through their
 System                                                     Reconcilliation Studies                                                (WGDF), version 7, was released in 2009 and is described       energy demands, and that national mitigation responses
                                                            (DWA)                                                                  by the National Climate Change Response White Paper as         will have implications for the water sector.
                                                                   Feasability Study
                                                                                                                                   the long-term tool for the water sector to deal with climate
 Water                                                             (DWA)              Water Board                                                                                                 The framework does not describe an integrated national
                                                                                                                                   change. The WGDF although approved by Cabinet, has
 Management                                                                           Infrastructure                                                                                              approach to the effects of climate change on water
                                                         Internal Strategic         and Business Plans                             not been finalised (gazetted). The framework describes
 Area                                                                                                                                                                                             resources, and provides a suite of broad options similar
                            Catchment                    Perspective (DWA)                                                         the current water resources as being insufficient to satisfy
                                                                                                                                                                                                  to those described in the National Climate Change
                            Management Strategy                                                                                    the projected increase in demand, as indicated in Figure 2,
                            (CMA)                                                                                                                                                                 Response White Paper. The issue of extreme events such
                                                                                                                                   and proposes a number of high-level recommendations.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  as droughts and floods is only implicitly addressed with
                            Catchment WR                                                                                           One such recommendation is to increase the supply of
                            Plans                                                                                                                                                                 reference to potential risks and threats.
 Sub-                       (DWA/CMA/LG)
                                                   Water User Association                                                          water by diversifying the water mix using desalination in
                                                   Business Plans (WUA)                                                            coastal areas and recycling in inland areas as a strategy      Box 1 describes the three options for the water sector
 catchment/                                                    All Town Strategies                                                 to increase water security. The framework describes the        to deal with climate change from the framework, which
 Municipal                                                     (DWA)                         Water Services
                                                                                            Development Plan                       threat of climate change on water resources, and proposes      is yet to be finalised and published by the DWA.
                                                                                                 (WSA)

                                   Water                             Water                             Water
                                 resources                         resources                          services
                                management                       infrastructure

Figure 1. Water resources planning framework in South Africa (light blue – management; blue – infrastructure; Orange – services)

     14      LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                                                                     LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                              15
LONG TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS - TOGETHER DEVELOPING ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR FUTURE CLIMATES
1.           Strategic Water Planning in South Africa

                                                                                                                            consideration of further enabling strategies, addressing      The strategy not only recognises the need to ensure that
Box 1. Options for dealing with climate change                Box 2. Core climate change objectives of NWRS2                issues such as catchment management, to enhance the           groundwater should be protected, but it should also form
To address the potential risks and threats posed by climate   Integrating climate change considerations in the short-,      planning of hard infrastructure to adapt to climate change.   part of the climate change adaptation strategy to assure
change with respect to water security, the following          medium- and long-term water planning processes:                                                                             the continuity of water supplies.
actions should be seriously considered:                                                                                     1.1.3    Climate change strategy for
                                                              •     Implementing the best catchment and water                        water resources
•         Develop a water sector response                           management practices to maximise the degree             Currently, the DWA is working on a climate change
          strategy comprising adaptation plans and                  of water security and resource protection under         strategy for South Africa’s water resources. The first
          mitigation measures                                       changing climatic conditions.                           part of the process, which is now complete, examines
•         Stimulate a shift in focus from climatic            •     Reducing the vulnerability and enhancing the            the status quo of water resources in South Africa and
          prediction and mitigation to response and                 resilience to water-related impacts of climate          the additional dimension climate change adds to various
          adaptation options.                                       change in communities/sectors at greatest risk.         aspects of managing water resources.
•         Focus on those WMAs or catchments likely to         •     Providing human, legal, regulatory, institutional,
          face the greatest risk of water shortages or with                                                                 The base assumption about the water impacts of climate
                                                                    governance and financial resources and capacity to
          high runoff and erosion potential, and develop an                                                                 change informing the strategic responses is that South
                                                                    deal with the long-term effects of climate change.
          appropriate and reliable understanding so that                                                                    Africa’s water resources are highly developed, highly
                                                              •     Undertaking focused monitoring and research in                                                                        Figure 3. Groundwater exploitation potential (National Groundwater
          risk and disaster management plans can be drawn                                                                   stressed and suffer from a certain level of degradation.
                                                                    order to ensure the efficacy of water adaptation                                                                      Strategy, 2010)
          up and implemented.                                                                                               High water demand and high levels of pollution from
                                                                    approaches over the long-term.
                                                                                                                            a variety of sources have added to the complexities           The strategy recognises that groundwater is not
                                                                                                                            of a fundamentally high risk hydrology. Thus climate          consistently managed or assessed as with other sources
1.1.2       National Water Resource Strategy                  The enabling strategies that have been identified to enable
                                                                                                                            change adds a layer of increased stress onto an already       such as surface water potential, and may not feature
                                                              the implementation of the NWRS2 fall broadly under the
The National Water Resource Strategy 2 (NWRS2),                                                                             stressed system. A key message is that better optimised       prominently in water resource plans. As a result,
                                                              following headings:
required by the National Water Act (Act 36 of 1998),                                                                        management of the current situation would be beneficial       more expensive options may be implemented where
defines the strategic direction for water management in       •     Water finance and funding                               in addressing the longer-term impacts of climate change.      groundwater may be a viable and more cost effective
South Africa over the next 20 years and the focus on          •     Water sector capacity building                                                                                        option. A key advantage of groundwater in a climate
water priorities for the next five years (2013–2017).                                                                       1.1.4    Groundwater management strategy                      change context is that it is buffered to some extent from
                                                              •     Monitoring and information
                                                                                                                            The National Groundwater Strategy, completed in               rainfall variability, and impacts may have a slower onset
The NWRS2 assumes that climate change will increase           •     Research and innovation
                                                                                                                            2010, recognises the importance of groundwater as an          as the replenishment of groundwater is controlled by
the pressure on already stressed water resources, and
                                                              Unfortunately, climate change objectives feature explicitly   underutilised water resource (DWA, 2010c). The strategy       long-term climatic conditions.
thus that there is a crucial requirement for the effective
management, use, allocation and re-allocation of              only for monitoring and evaluation, leaving significant       aims to quantify groundwater as a resource, as indicated
available water resources. The strategy further sets out      gaps in elements of the strategy that are necessary for a     in Figure 3, and provide direction for its management.
particular climate change objectives which are required       long-term, sustainable adaptive response under climate
                                                                                                                            Currently, about 10% of South Africa’s water resources
to be integrated into the short-, medium- and long-term       change. The National Climate Change Strategy for
                                                                                                                            are sourced from groundwater. The sectoral use of
planning for water resources as indicated in Box 2 below.     Water Resources (see below) could also benefit from
                                                                                                                            groundwater is indicated in Figure 4 below, where use
                                                                                                                            for irrigation accounts for the most groundwater usage.

     16       LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                                                            LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                      17
1.        Strategic Water Planning in South Africa

                                                                methods either singly or in combination to remove                               A number of thematic plans also exist at the system             through various strategies for the next two to three
                                                                alien species. Figure 5 below indicates priority areas for                      planning level, which are commissioned on an “as needed”        decades. The main aim is to determine when the next water
                                                                clearing. This is currently being revised.                                      basis and tend to be specific to a single system, such as the   infrastructure system would be required and when it should
                                                                                                                                                acid mine drainage (AMD) plans which affect particular          be built. Adaptation is inherent in the planning approach
                                                                There are distinct benefits to using WFW as an adaptation
                                                                                                                                                water systems in South Africa. These tools could also           but it does not take a long-term strategic perspective.
                                                                measure, especially as climate change exacerbates
                                                                                                                                                usefully be further developed to support climate change         These studies address:
                                                                water scarcity. However, resources will be required
                                                                                                                                                adaptation responses.
                                                                for ongoing management to keep areas alien free and                                                                                             •   Future water requirement scenarios for and within
                                                                to rehabilitate natural vegetation to ensure that water                                                                                             the metropolitan area.
                                                                                                                                                1.2.2    Reconciliation studies
                                                                services are maintained.                                                                                                                        •   Water resources and other interventions that
                                                                                                                                                Water resource planning requires an understanding
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    could add to water availability.
                                                                                                                                                of the key drivers of water demand and how different
                                                                                                                                                development futures will impact on water resource               •   Possible methods for reconciling the requirements
Figure 4 Groundwater use per WMA (Groundwater Strategy, 2010)
                                                                                                                                                availability and use. The most common approach to                   for water with the available resources.
The report recognises that artificial recharge is a                                                                                             incorporating different development futures in water            •   Recommendations on the development and
groundwater management technique that may play an                                                                                               resource planning is to firstly understand the trends               implementation of required interventions
increasing role in maintaining South Africa’s water security.                                                                                   in current water use and to quantify the available                  and actions.
Artificial recharge is the transfer of surplus surface water                                                                                    resources, and then to account for future demand under          •   Monitoring and updating of the strategies into
underground by injecting it into aquifers through boreholes.                                                                                    different scenarios.                                                the future.
The advantages include lower evaporation losses, which
will become especially critical as higher temperatures                                                                                          The key drivers of water use are to a large extent linked to    The potential key strategies for climate change
increase evaporation of stored surface water.                                                                                                   population growth rates, and water use in specific sectors      adaptation include:
                                                                                                                                                such as industry, domestic use and irrigation. For example,
The strategy recognises the need for more research into         Figure 5. Map for removal of invasive alien species based on a prioritisation   in South Africa rapid growth in urbanisation, coupled with      •   Water conservation and demand management
the effects of climate change on technical issues such as       model (Le Maitre et al., 2012)                                                  economic development in general, will increase water            •   Re-using water
groundwater recharge. There is limited understanding of                                                                                         demand. This, however, depends on the local context,            •   Using groundwater
the origin, recharge and availability of groundwater. This is   1.2 Water resource system planning                                              for example, in the Lephalale water supply system future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                •   Desalinating seawater (applicable to coastal areas)
further hampered by the reduction in both skills and                                                                                            water demand will be driven largely by industrialisation
                                                                South Africa has developed a sophisticated methodology                                                                                          •   Building dams
infrastructure for monitoring groundwater. Furthermore,                                                                                         as a result of energy production and mining, whereas in
                                                                to consider historical climate and hydrological variability
groundwater quality under climate change and the effects                                                                                        the Western Cape rapid urbanisation will drive future           •   Transfers between dams
                                                                in water resources infrastructure planning. The main
of long-term droughts on groundwater need further                                                                                               water demands.                                                  •   Rehabilitating catchments by clearing invasive alien
                                                                tools for system planning are reconciliation studies, which
research to improve understanding.                                                                                                                                                                                  plants and restoration
                                                                guide water infrastructure planning and comprise detailed                       The general trend has been to construct different
                                                                planning and operational considerations, informed                                                                                               •   Harvesting rainwater
                                                                                                                                                scenarios that can be synthesised into a low water demand
1.1.5     Alien invasive species clearing                       by assumptions of water demand trajectories. These                                                                                              •   Changing water use
                                                                                                                                                scenario and a high demand scenario These are based
The Department of Environmental Affairs is leading a            studies are supported by the application of a number of                                                                                         •   Improving management and operations.
                                                                                                                                                either on population growth rates, or water demand in
multi-departmental process to remove invading alien plant       modelling tools that will be central in assessing adaptive                      key sectors of the economy that are expected to grow
species under the “Working for Water” (WFW) banner.             responses under future climate change. An overview                                                                                              The planning of water resources requires the consideration
                                                                                                                                                with significant water requirements.
Removal of alien invasive species has multiple benefits,        of the reconciliation study method and its focus areas                                                                                          of many uncertainties, including the extent and nature of
including maintaining natural biodiversity, improving water     is described in Annex 1, as these could usefully form a                         Water resource reconciliation studies involve an assessment     future requirements, and knowledge of both rainfall and
security and creating jobs. There are currently 300 active      central pillar of adaptation responses to climate variability                   of the use and future requirements for water, and how           runoff; knowledge that slowly improves as the historical
programmes using chemical, mechanical and biological            and change.                                                                     these can be “reconciled” with the available sources            record grows.

     18    LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                                                                                     LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR               19
1.          Strategic Water Planning in South Africa

Climate change exacerbates climate variability, which in                   and/or climate change has been incorporated into the              water supply to future power stations to avoid duplication    1.2.2.2 Prioritisation criteria
turn increases the uncertainty around water resource                       assumptions made for the different scenarios and the              or omission. Projections of future requirements are           When looking at the development pathways for the
planning. In order to assess the impact of climate change,                 water demand and supply projections. Reconciliation               made for the period to 2035, and then extrapolated to         reconciliation studies a number of decisions need to be
knowledge about the components of the hydrological                         studies (and the all towns strategies – see Section 1.1.4)        2050. Instead of a spectrum of high and low scenarios, a      made, for example, new schemes or interventions have
cycle that are impacted on by climate and determining                      are updated annually with the latest information provided         reference scenario was selected. The expected growth          been introduced only when dictated by the growth in
trends distilled from historical records become crucial.                   on the DWA website (www.dwaf.gov.za). The information             in water requirements is predominantly in the urban,          water requirements. These developments would then
The key components of the hydrological cycle are:                          presented here is based on the data available between             industrial, mining and power generation sectors. There
                                                                                                                                                                                                           be prioritised and phased for each area according to the
                                                                           April 2012 and March 2013.                                        were no growth projections for irrigation developments,
•     Changing precipitation patterns                                                                                                                                                                      following criteria:
                                                                                                                                             unless otherwise stated in the NWRS (DWA, 2010a).
•     Increasing atmospheric water vapour                                  1.2.2.1 Approach to the Reconciliation Studies                                                                                  •     Ranking of options according to the unit cost of
•     Changing temperature patterns such as increasing                                                                                       It should be noted that while the possible impacts of
                                                                           There are thirteen reconciliation studies for South Africa. In                                                                        water, with the highest ranking afforded to the
      evaporation                                                                                                                            climate change are taken into account during the detailed
                                                                           addition to these, the all towns strategies are reconciliation                                                                        option with the lowest URV.
                                                                                                                                             planning of water resources developments, specific
•     Changes in soil moisture and runoff                                  studies for smaller water supply areas. Currently nine of                                                                       •     When two options have the same URV, the
                                                                                                                                             provisions for climate change may not have been included
•     Changing water quality conditions.                                   the bulk water studies have been completed. All 914 all           in the reconciliation studies. This is further explored in          one with the lowest unit energy requirement is
                                                                           towns strategies have also been completed.                        the review of the case studies summarised below in Table            prioritised.
                                                                                                                                             1 with full details provided in Annex 1. It should also be    •     Options to meet the growth in water
                                                                           In general, the assessments of water availability were based
                                                                                                                                             noted that limited detailed information on the potential            requirements would be phased in by first using
                                                                           on current infrastructure, current levels of development
                                                                                                                                             impacts of climate change on hydrology was available when           the highest ranked option, and then those with
                                                                           and accurate accounting for surface water, groundwater,
                                                                                                                                             the existing reconciliation studies were developed. DWA             progressively lower rankings.
                                                                           return flows and inter-basin transfers. Implementation
                                                                                                                                             has indicated that the methodology will be revisited with     •     Should the highest ranked scheme not be able
                                                                           of the ecological reserve and availability of water from
                                                                                                                                             the research and information that has been generated                to deliver water in time (due to its status in
                                                                           desalination was also considered. It should be noted that
                                                                                                                                             during the National Water Adaptation Strategy process.              the development cycle), then the next-ranked
                                                                           water conservation and water demand management is the
                                                                           priority strategy in all large reconciliation areas, and in the                                                                       scheme that could be implemented in time would
                                                                                                                                             The unit cost of water is the basis for comparing the
                                                                           all towns strategies (further described in Section 1.1.4).                                                                            be used.
                                                                                                                                             various augmentation options that inform the development
                                                                           The specific measures differ from area to area depending          pathway. For comparative purposes, the marginal cost was
                                                                           on the local context.                                             expressed in terms of unit reference value (URV) as a         The development of new water resources infrastructure
Figure 6. Key economic areas in relation to existing water supply system
studies (RSS – reconciliation strategy study)                                                                                                first order economic indicator. It should be noted that       is a complex and time-consuming process that
                                                                           DWA (2010a) provides an overview of the future water
                                                                                                                                             the URV does not consider the costs of rehabilitation and     typically takes more than a decade from inception to
In the reconciliation strategies for the metropolitan areas,               resources and the water balance situation in South
                                                                                                                                             maintenance of the catchment. The energy requirements         commissioning. For larger and more complex projects
the possible impacts of climate change on available water                  Africa, which should serve as input to national strategic
                                                                                                                                             for the various options is another key variable, therefore,   with environmental and political sensitivities lead times
are included in future scenarios to ensure timeous study                   spatial and sectoral development planning. This includes
                                                                                                                                             the marginal energy costs were also determined for use        may be more than two decades. It is essential therefore
of augmentation options. Adaptation measures can then                      assessment of the remaining potential for water resource
                                                                                                                                             in the URV calculations. It should be noted that growth       to identify development needs and undertake preparatory
be introduced when they become necessary. An example                       development in South Africa and the means to extend
                                                                                                                                             in future water requirements as well as the sizing and        work well ahead of the time a project needs to deliver
would be the predicted drying of the west coast and the                    the utility of the resources, all with associated costs and
                                                                                                                                             scheduling of a development option can have a major           water. Figure 7 below shows the typical programme for
effect this would have on the water supply to Cape Town.                   estimated energy requirements. The report provides a
                                                                                                                                             influence on the URV (DWA, 2010a).                            water resources development.
                                                                           clear perspective on water resources and future water
Presented below and in Annex 1 is a high level assessment                  requirements, and scenarios on how these could be
of the reconciliation studies that have been conducted in                  reconciled for various key areas in the country. Special
South Africa, looking specifically at how climate variability              care was taken over inter-basin transfers and provision of

     20      LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                                                                              LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR              21
1.           Strategic Water Planning in South Africa

                             Typical Programme for Water Resource Developments                                                                      Table 1. Summary of reconciliation studies to date

             1                       2                        3                         4                      5                       6                                                                                        CLIMATE CHANGE                            HYDROLOGY
                                                                                                                                                    NO STUDY                  AREA OF SUPPLY                  PROGRESS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                CONSIDERATIONS                            CONSIDERATIONS
          1–5 years             1–3 years                2–4 years                 2–5 years              2–6 years               4–8 years
                                                                                                                                                    1     Algoa               Nelson Mandela Bay           Completed in         The study highlighted the need to         Data were used for the
             (1)                    (2)                      (3)                       (4)                    (5)                     (6)
                                                                                                                                                                              Municipality (NMBM), several 2011                 monitor the impacts of climate change     period between 1927 and
                                                         Feasibility           Decision Support           Design/               Construction/                                 smaller towns within the                          and conduct an impact assessment study    1991. There were large
 Reconnaissance Phase      Pre-feasibility Phase
                                                           Phase                    Phase            Documentation Phase     Implementation Phase                             Kouga Local Municipality                          to determine the expected regional        discrepancies between
                                                   •	Detail investigation                                                                                                    and the Gamtoos                                   impact of climate change on the Algoa     the above period and
                                                      and assessment                                                                                                          Irrigation Board.                                 water supply system (AWSS) water          recent hydrology. Further
                                                      of best options(s),                                                                                                                                                       balance. It was assumed that climate      investigations are underway.
                                                                                                     •	Formalise                                                                                                               change would reduce the yields by 10%.
                          •	Preliminary              sizing and             •	Environmental
•	Needs identification                                                                                 institutional        •	Procurement
                             investigation            configuration             approval                                                            2     Amatole             The system supplies the         Completed in      Climate change was considered, but        The initial analysis looked
                                                                                                        arrangements
                                                      (technical,                                                                                                             Buffalo City Municipality,      2008              was not incorporated into the water       at the period from 1920 to
                                                      environmental                                                                                                           including East London, King                       balance reconciliation.                   1996. This was extended
                                                      and cost)                                                                                                               Williams Town, Bisho, and                                                                   and a hydrological record
•	Identification                                                                                                                                                             part of the Amathole District                                                               from 1920 to 2003
                          •	Identify best                                                                                                                                    Municipality area.                                                                          was used.
   and selection                                   •	Recommendation         •	Reserve                                      •	Resettlement and
                             options for detail                                                      • Secure funding
   of possible                                        of project                determination                                   compensation        3     Bloem               This system provides most    Completed in         No climate change considerations have     Assumed data records to
                             study
   interventions                                                                                                                                                              of the water required by the 2012                 been made.                                start from the 1920s.
                                                                                                     •	Procurement                                                           towns located within the
                                                                             •	Public involvement                           •	Construction                                  Mangaung Metro Municipality,
                                                                                                        procedures
                                                                             •	Initial funding      •	Engineering design                                                    namely Bloemfontein,
                                                                                                                             •	Impounding and                                Thaba Nchu, Botshabelo,
                                                                                and institutional       and construction
                                                                                                                                commissioning                                 Dewetsdorp, Reddersburg,
                                                                                arrangements            documentation
                                                                                                                                                                              Wepener, Edenburg and
                                                                             • Some optimisation                                                                              Excelsior.
                                                                             •	Decision to
                                                                                                                                                    4     Crocodile West      This study covers the           Completed in      No climate change considerations were     The simulated flow data
                                                                                implement                                                                                     northern areas of Gauteng,      2010              found in the report.                      for the Crocodile (West)
Notes:	1) Numbers in brackets indicative of average periods.                                                                                                                 the platinum mines, other                                                                   River Catchment covers
        2) Some of the activities typically extend over more than one phase.                                                                                                  developments around                                                                         the hydrological record for
        3) D
            etermination of the Reserve should be independent from any specific project development. However, where the Reserve has not                                      Rustenburg and Brits and                                                                    1920 to 2003.
           previously been determined, it may be included under the development programme. It is therefore not restricted to a specific phase.                                further north to Thabazimbi
                                                                                                                                                                              and large-scale energy-
Figure 7. Water resource development diagram (DWA, 2010a)                                                                                                                     related developments
                                                                                                                                                                              that are planned for the
                                                                                                                                                                              Waterberg coalfields in the
1.2.2.3 Review of existing reconciliation studies                                                                                                                             vicinity of Lephalale.

Table 1 provides a summary of the progress of reconciliation                    studies were developed, the DWA focused on developing               5     KwaZulu-            This study looks at the area    Completed in      The study notes that climate change
                                                                                                                                                          Natal Coastal       between Pietermaritzburg,       2010              should be monitored and that current
studies to date, with an indication of the way climate change                   crude scenarios only where there were indications that the                Metropolitan        Durban, Kwadukuza and                             models show no reduction in rainfall
                                                                                                                                                                              Amanzimtoti. It includes the                      patterns, but there may be variability.
has been considered. See Annex 1 for a full description                         yield could decrease. This included the Western Cape and                                      eThekwini Metropolitan,                           Umgeni Water is in the process of
of existing reconciliation studies with a focus on area of                      Algoa areas. These scenarios were based on the assumed                                        Msunduzi and Illembe                              conducting a study on the impacts
                                                                                                                                                                              municipalities.                                   that climate change could have on the
supply, hydrological record, assumptions of the study,                          drop in yield and ensured that appropriate interventions                                                                                        water resources. These results are not
current and future water requirements, water resource                           were brought into the planning cycle. This methodology                                                                                          yet available.
planning and climate change considerations. As limited                          will be revisited with the research and information that            6     Luvuvhu &           The whole of the Luvuvhu        In progress,      No climate change considerations
                                                                                                                                                          Letaba              and Letaba WMA and parts        completion date   thus far.
detailed information on the potential impacts of climate                        has been generated during the National Water Adaptation                                       of the adjacent WMAs.           is May 2013
change on hydrology was available when the reconciliation                       Strategy process.                                                   7     Mbombela            The municipal area straddles In progress,         No climate change considerations
                                                                                                                                                          Municipal Area      the Sabie and Crocodile River completion date     thus far.
                                                                                                                                                                              catchment                     is 2014
                                                                                                                                                    8     Mhlatuze            Mhlatuze Local Municipality,    In progress       No climate change considerations
                                                                                                                                                                              comprising Empangeni,                             thus far.
                                                                                                                                                                              Ngwelezana, Nseleni,
                                                                                                                                                                              Esikhaweni and a number of
                                                                                                                                                                              rural villages.

     22       LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                                                                                                LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                             23
1.            Strategic Water Planning in South Africa

 Table 1. Summary of reconciliation studies to date                                                                                                1.3.1    Breede-Overberg Catchment
 NO STUDY                  AREA OF SUPPLY                   PROGRESS
                                                                              CLIMATE CHANGE                          HYDROLOGY                             Management Strategy.                                   •     Monitoring changes and developing information
                                                                              CONSIDERATIONS                          CONSIDERATIONS
                                                                                                                                                   The Breede-Overberg CMA (BOCMA) is located in the                     to indicate expected change and variability
 9        Olifants         This study covers the entire     Completed in      No climate change considerations        Assumed data records to
                           Olifants WMA and the             2012              were made.                              start from the 1920s.        Western Cape. A scenario based on a median climate                    is critical.
                           adjacent areas of Polokwane
                           and Mogalakwena, which are
                                                                                                                                                   response drawn from a set of climate projections for 2050       •     As information is better understood, key natural
                           supplied from the Olifants.                                                                                             shows climate change leading to progressive drying with               ecosystems, infrastructure, and institutional
 10       Orange           The study consists of the        In progress,      No climate change considerations                                     an increase in extreme rainfall events.                               developments should be identified, prioritised,
                           Upper and Lower Orange           completion date   thus far.
                           River WMAs, while also           is 2014                                                                                                                                                      and steps taken toward building resilience in the
                           considering all the tributary                                                                                                                                                                 identified areas.
                           rivers and transfers affecting
                           the water balance of the                                                                                                                                                                •     While BOCMA will play a lead role in this action
                           system. This core area forms
                           part of the Orange-Senqu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         collaboration, primarily with the DWA and the
                           River Basin.                                                                                                                                                                                  Provincial Government, will be necessary for
 11       Vaal             This study includes most of      Completed in      No climate change considerations.       Assumed data records start                                                                         natural ecosystem and infrastructural resilience,
                           Gauteng, Eskom & Sasol’s         2008                                                      from 1920s
                           industries in Mpumalanga,                                                                                                                                                                     and coordination with additional institutions will
                           North West and Free State,                                                                                                                                                                    be required for building institutional capacity.
                           gold fields around Welkom,
                           mines in the Northern Cape,                                                                                                                                                             •     Does this include increasing the efficiency of
                           Kimberly and small towns
                           along the river.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         water use?
 12       Western Cape     This study looks at the          Completed in      The first strategy noted that climate   Long-term stream flow,
                           City of Cape Town, certain       2007              change should be monitored.             rainfall, water quality                                                                      The main objective of climate change adaptation and
                           Overberg, Boland, West                             The revised strategy looked at a        and climate records are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   disaster risk management is to develop and improve
                           Coast and Swartland                                scenario with a 5% decrease in yield    available for 80 years.      Figure 8. Location of the Breede-Overberg WMA (DWAF)
                           towns and irrigation along                         over 25 years.                                                                                                                       resilience to hydrological variability and disaster risk
                           the Berg, Eerste and                                                                                                    The catchment has a strongly water-dependent economy            through an improved understanding of trends and
                           Riviersonderend rivers.
 13       All Towns        This study includes over         In progress                                                                            based on intensive irrigated agriculture, and therefore the     events, their impacts upon the social economy and the
                           800 reports and is available                                                                                            strategy focuses on two components, namely building             necessary strategic responses.
                           either per province, per
                           district municipality or per                                                                                            climate change resilience and ensuring climate change
                           local municipality.                                                                                                     is considered in disaster risk management. While the            Achieving this includes:
                                                                                                                                                   response is not comprehensive, it indicates the need
1.3 Water management area/                                                                                                                         for more research and better understanding of climate           •     Strengthening information acquisition and
    catchment planning                                                                                                                             change in order to provide a more coherent approach.                  assessment related to climate variability and
                                                                                                                                                   The response is described in Box 3 below.                             change and development (trends).
While the management of water resources and adaptation                          management of strategies. Furthermore, the CMAs have
to climate change happens through all levels of planning,                       been amalgamated from 19 to 9, and once the amalgamated                                                                            •     Building institutional flexibility for resilience.
it can be facilitated directly at catchment level, the scale                    CMAs are functional catchment management strategies                Box 3.The objective for climate change resilience               •     Mainstreaming water and cooperating with
at which the effects of climate variability and change play                     (CMSs) will need to be developed. The CMA and its CMS              in the catchment:                                                     provincial and local disaster bodies.
out on a micro-level. However, catchment management                             represent an opportunity to support adaptation, with               Make robust water resources management decisions that           •     Assessing water disaster risk and developing
agencies (CMAs) are still being developed, with only two                        inputs from catchment forums and water users’ associations         build natural ecosystem, infrastructural and institutional            a WMA flood and drought strategy aligned to
being functional. There are capacity constraints at this                        (WUAs) at a more localised level that could help implement         resilience to climate variability and change.                         national disaster management.
local level to providing the necessary implementation and                       the risk and disaster management plans for the catchment.

     24          LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                                                                                                                    LTA S: CLIMATE CHANGE IM PLIC ATION S FOR THE WATER S ECTOR                   25
You can also read