Manukau City T2060 Concept - Business & Industrial Land Demand Assessment Manukau City Council - Auckland Council
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Manukau City T2060 Concept
Business & Industrial Land Demand Assessment
Manukau City Council
April 2009SCHEDULE
Code Date Information / Comments Project Leader
005 April 2009 Report Phil Osborne
Tim Heath
DISCLAIMER
Property Economics has taken every care to ensure the correctness of all the information
contained in this report. All information has been obtained by what are considered to be
reliable sources, and Property Economics has no reason to doubt its accuracy. It is
however the responsibility of all parties acting on information contained in this report to
make their own enquiries to verify correctness.
This document has been prepared for the use of Manukau City Council only. Copyright
© 2009 by Property Economics Ltd.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc -1-TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 4 1.1 INFORMATION SOURCES 4 2. MANUKAU BUSINESS LOCATIONAL ASSESSMENT 5 2.1 THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 6 3. INTERNATIONAL & NATIONAL TRENDS 6 3.1 MANUFACTURING TRENDS 6 3.2 EMERGENCE OF LOGISTICS 7 3.3 CHANGING ORGANISATION & TECHNOLOGY 7 3.4 INTERNATIONAL OFFICE TRENDS 9 4. MANUKAU BUSINESS MARKETS 12 5. INDUSTRIAL TRENDS BY MARKET 15 5.1 INDUSTRIAL LAND VALUES 15 5.2 EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION 17 5.3 FUTURE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR 20 6. FUTURE COMMERCIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR 21 7. FUTURE INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR 22 8. BUSINESS LOCATION CRITERIA 23 8.1 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 23 8.2 COMMERCIAL OFFICE SECTOR 24 9. RETAIL DEMAND 26 10. BUSINESS INTENSIFICATION SCENARIOS 27 10.1 FUTURE BUSINESS LOCATIONS 28 50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc -2-
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1: FLAT BUSH EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 17
TABLE 2: AIRPORT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 17
TABLE 3: MANUREWA EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 18
TABLE 4: HOWICK EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 18
TABLE 5: EAST TAMAKI EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 19
TABLE 6: RURAL MANUKAU EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 19
TABLE 7: ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR FOR MANUKAU CITY (TO 2060)
20
TABLE 8: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR FOR MANUKAU CITY (TO
2060 (NET)) 22
TABLE 9: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR FOR MANUKAU CITY (TO
2060 (NET)) 22
TABLE 10: TOTAL ESTIMATED RETAIL FLOORSPACE DEMAND (TO 2060) 26
TABLE 11: COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION 27
TABLE 12: INDUSTRIAL LAND REQUIREMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION 27
TABLE 13: TOTAL INDUSTRIAL LOCATIONAL DEMANDS (2060) 28
TABLE 14: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL AIRPORT DEMAND (2060) 28
TABLE 15: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL WIRI DEMAND (2060) 28
TABLE 16: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL MANGERE DEMAND (2060) 28
TABLE 17: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL EAST TAMAKI / HIGHBROOK DEMAND (2060) 29
TABLE 18: TOTAL COMMERCIAL LOCATIONAL DEMANDS (2060) 29
TABLE 19: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL AIRPORT DEMAND (2060) 29
TABLE 20: PROJECTED WIRI DEMAND (2060) 30
TABLE 21: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL MANGERE DEMAND (2060) 30
TABLE 22: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL EAST TAMAKI / HIGHBROOK DEMAND (2060) 30
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY LOCATION (2000 – 2007) 12
FIGURE 2: INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY LOCATION (2000 – 2007) 13
FIGURE 3: RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY LOCATION (2000 – 2007) 14
FIGURE 4: MANUKAU INDUTSRIAL LAND UPTAKE AND LAND VALUE 15
FIGURE 5: MANUKAU INDUSTRAIL LAND VALUES BY AREA 16
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc -3-Manukau City T2060 Concept
Business & Industrial Land Demand Assessment
1. INTRODUCTION
This report reviews the MCC T2060 Concept Plan in terms of quantum,
and shifts in demand for commercial and industrial property over the next
50 years. Specific objectives of the report are to:
• review the assessments of growth capacity for Manukau
• evaluate the rate of ‘take-up’ of commercial and industrial land,
as proposed by the T2060 Concept Plan,
• evaluate any environmental social benefits and costs resulting
from the T2060 Concept Plan
• evaluate the long term role and function of the major centres and
corridors
• evaluate the staging requirements to achieve the T2060 Concept
Plan
• identify any impediments to achieving the outcomes sought by the
T2060 Concept Plan
1.1 Information Sources
Information has been obtained from a variety of sources and publications
available to Property Economics, including:
• Census of Population and Dwellings 2001 - Statistics NZ
• Household Economic Survey - Statistics NZ
• Retail Trade Survey - Statistics NZ
• Background Information – Manukau City Council
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc -4-2. MANUKAU BUSINESS LOCATIONAL ASSESSMENT
This section assesses the business land market in Manukau considering:
1. The current business market
2. The expected future market
3. Manukau business market trends
4. Projected Manukau business activity by sector: Industrial,
Commercial and Retail
5. Changes in business land intensity
6. Location of Manukau business
a. The need to supply appropriate land to remain competitive
b. Location criteria by activity
c. Manukau’s competitive advantages
d. Sector requirements
e. Specific locations and their advantages: where businesses
will go
f. Business requirements: infrastructure etc.
The Manukau business market has historically been driven by industrial
activity and specially manufacturing. These businesses typically located in
the city due to Manukau’s competitive land prices and accessibility south
of Auckland. Within Manukau itself businesses have located for a variety
of reasons, being historical location to access to their market.
The main driving force behind locations in Manukau, for larger
businesses, are focused on their accessibility both to Auckland and the
southern half of the North Island, access to an appropriate labour force
and relative competitively priced land. These competitive factors have
led, in more recent times, to the emergence of Hamilton and Tauranga as
locational competitors.
As the business environment has changed so to has Manukau City’s
economic composition. The emergence of logistics has seen
considerable growth in and around the airport. Also as the Eastern
Suburbs continue to attract a different category of labour, so the growth
of commercial activity is drawn to these areas of Manukau with increasing
amenity and growing positive agglomeration impacts on businesses
located here.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc -5-2.1 The Business Environment
The international business environment has continued to experience significant
shifts over the past 15 years. These changes are the result of globalisation, that
has lead to increased national and regional specialisation, and an increasing
proportion of activity in the commercial / service markets, with an emphasis on
high ‘value added’ sectors.
Many regional and local economies have focused on growth in these dynamic
industries such as biotechnology, film, marine, and information technology.
Many of these competing locations have failed to nurture growth in these areas,
due to a lack of competitive locational advantage, and have pursued these
sectors at the expense of fostering existing strengths.
3. INTERNATIONAL & NATIONAL TRENDS
This section identifies some of the major impacts on Manukau of evolving
global and, more importantly, national trading patterns. It focuses on
long-term shifts in the composition of trade, changing global demand,
new and evolving structures of production, and the structural suitability of
the study area’s economy for sustained prosperity and growth. It also
discusses operational and technological advances, and the impact this
will have on the business markets.
Due to New Zealand’s position in the global market it is susceptible to
changes in the international arena. This ultimately influences the
competitive nature of the Manukau markets, markets that they currently or
potentially exhibit a comparative advantage in.
3.1 Manufacturing Trends
Trends in the international industrial market can be broken down into two
categories, export industries and those demanded for national supply.
The trends in world demand for production are important in determining
the direction of Manukau’s industrial future. Suppliers to the international
market are looking for areas that are compatible with their industry in
terms of access to skilled workers, and other factors of production.
The current international trends show a continued growth in
manufacturing for export, not only in developing countries but also some
of the wealthiest OECD countries. In 1997 manufactured products
accounted for 61% of world trade by value, while in 2002 that figure
reached over 68%. Of this the valued added by ‘niche’ or specialised
manufacturers is estimated to be over 10% and climbing. These are key
areas of growth and retention for Manukau City. Reasons for this recent
decline in this sector may be explained by the departure of several large
firms due to more competitive Asian and Australian markets.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc -6-Continually improving international communications and logistics mean
that businesses supplying any markets can be operated from
geographically distant locations.
The size of the Manukau local market means that traditional types of
manufacturing are decreasing as cheaper international labour acquires
international contracts.
3.2 Emergence of Logistics
The NZIER employment projections forecast more warehousing and
logistic based industry, which will redistribute employment proportions
more evenly across the industrial sectors. Manufacturing employment, as
a percentage of total industrial employment, is projected to drop from
45% to 42%, while Wholesale Trade is projected to increase.
Whether it is measured by the value it will add to the local economy or
the employment it generates, logistic businesses likely to be an important
component of Manukau’s industrial economy in the future.
This trend is not unique to Manukau, with many economies around the
world undergoing the same transition at present, especially in larger cities
where it is becoming increasingly difficult for large manufacturers to find
large sites at economic prices, and hence are getting pushed further out
of the city or to neighbouring towns, in Manukau’s case to Hamilton and
Tauranga.
Just about everything that happens in a major centre is dependent on the
movement of materials. Industries such as manufacturing, construction
and retail are particularly dependent on efficient logistics, as are many of
the professional service businesses in the heart of financial districts.
Also, an efficient logistics sector provides the foundation for achieving
wider spatial, economic development and transport objectives for
Manukau.
Logistic businesses provide a range of employment opportunities for a
wide variety of skill bases, but generally the warehousing associated with
many logistical operations rely on areas of lower socio-economic status,
creating employment opportunities in areas of economic need.
Logistics also has the potential to contribute to the sustainable
development of Manukau, through the recycling of ‘brownfield’ sites for
warehousing, and the wider use of ‘sustainable distribution’, e.g. use of
cleaner vehicles.
3.3 Changing Organisation & Technology
Over the past two decades, the way in which industrial companies have
operated has changed. This is primarily due to technological
developments and the emergence of logistics businesses, and is a result
of industrial activities coming under increasing pressure to reduce costs
and improve service.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc -7-From an organisation’s perspective, some of the key changes have included: • The consolidation of inventory • Greater ‘just in time’ logistics • Increasing use of cross-docking • The outsourcing of warehousing and transport services • The growth of home deliveries in certain markets Consolidation of inventory refers to the way in which many operators are now consolidating their inventory into a smaller number of larger warehouses. One of the main benefits associated with consolidation is the reduction in the total amount of stock businesses hold, thereby reduce holding costs. A flow-on benefit of this is that total property and employee costs are often reduced. These cost savings and increases in efficiency generally outweigh any increase in transport costs that may occur by having fewer distribution points. This trend has been one of the key drivers behind the demand for larger warehouses, and this looks set to continue well into the future. Just-in-time logistics is where the flow of goods is ‘pulled’ by customer demand rather than being ‘pushed’ out by producers or suppliers. For warehousing, this has been a key factor in transforming the roles of warehouses from storage, to movement and information. This can generate increased transport with more frequent deliveries of smaller consignments. This trend is likely to continue to be refined as companies seek to eliminate ‘waste’ from the movement of their goods. Cross-docking often works in conjunction with just-in-time logistics and is a way of managing the flow of goods without putting them into storage. This is usually done in a dedicated facility where the warehouse still exists, but its ‘stockless’, as the goods go straight through rapid unloading, get re-consigned and reloaded again before onward dispatch. This trend has seen significant growth overseas, and generated increased demand for large land intensive warehouses with loading docks on both sides. This is likely to remain a growing trend as industrial businesses become increasingly focused on the speed of flow through the supply chain. Outsourcing refers to the way industrial activity contract out their logistic operations, typically their transport operations and/or warehousing generally to specialist logistic businesses. This keeps industrial businesses focused on their core competencies and out sources non-core requirements. This has fuelled growth in the logistics market and has been an important driver in demand for large warehousing and distribution facilities. As the logistic market grows and the large players get bigger, they will become more competitive which may further drive growth in this market. In this regard, this organisational shift looks set to continue. The home delivery market received significant impetus with the development of on-line and catalogue retailing. This sector involves the delivery of goods supplied by direct selling manufacturers and non-store retailers (such as Amazon). 50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc -8-
This sector also includes delivery of goods which are purchased in person
at retail stores. The home delivery market also generates demand for
large warehouses and growth in this market is likely to lead to an increase
in demand for warehouse/distribution facilities. The impact of this on
Manukau may be small for non-perishable goods, but with supermarkets
now offering on-line shopping, this sector will require more local
warehousing.
Despite all the advances in technology and trends this is bringing to the
industrial market, ultimately demand for industrial building space and
land will be driven by local economic growth. This creates demand for
more inventory, which requires more manufacturing, more distribution,
more jobs, more warehousing, etc. In this regard, economic growth will
be a good benchmark for future increases in industrial land and
buildings.
3.4 International Office Trends
Office trends are less pronounced compared with retail trends
internationally, however is nevertheless having an impact on the form of
cities.
The following are some of the recent office trends seen across the U.S.
and Europe.
Science & Technology Parks
With many countries around the world stressing the importance of
technological development for economic growth, Science and
Technology Parks have become an important component of the
commercial real estate landscape. These Science and Technology Parks
are developed to link the ideas and intelligence of universities and other
such learning institutes and link them with businesses to create high value,
high technology products for the marketplace.
As such these parks are typically located close to or within learning
institutes. These office developments require excellent IT infrastructure
and high amenity environments capable of attracting highly skilled
companies and employees. Examples of successful Science and
Technology Parks include Silicon Valley, Triangle Park in North Carolina
and the Cambridge Science Park.
Office Parks
Office parks are master-planned clusters of low-medium rise office
buildings. Most new office parks are highly landscaped, offering white
collar workers an enjoyable working environment outside the CBD.
Underlying the success of office parks is their ability to concentrate similar
uses in one place, which gives it a creative, competitive, pro-business
reputation. In New Zealand Office parks have become a feature with
developments such as Smales Farm and Highbrook in Auckland.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc -9-Office Parks are often associated with large cities however, and it is unlikely that New Zealand has large enough industries to create a critical mass of activity. The slow uptake of space at Smales Farm, which is arguably one of New Zealand’s best potential locations for an Office Park, reinforces this. They also are poorly integrated with the urban environment and impose a range of costs on the community (e.g. often create traffic externalities, reduced productivity levels in CBDs, reduced social and community values of CBDs, etc). Technological Improvements Constantly improving technologies have changed the way the office sector works. Developments such as the laptop computers, mobile phones and the internet have enabled significant change. The flexibility that new technologies offer office workers allows for more work to be done away from the office, and outside office hours. As such many more people can now choose to work from home, or take mid week holidays when golf courses and shopping centres are less busy. Outsourcing One key development that has arisen, largely due to improvements in technology, is the outsourcing of white collar work. In the UK and America the outsourcing of back office processes and call centres to countries with lower labour costs and relatively high levels of education such as India and China has become a mainstream way of doing business for the larger companies. More recently higher value office sector work is being outsourced in fields such as financial analysis and legal researching. This trend is anticipated to continue with the cost savings driving outsourcing into the future. Office Building Design The modern office building is vastly different to previous designs. One difference is the acknowledgement of staff wellbeing and the link to improved retention and productivity. As such energy efficient and healthy buildings are becoming the new offices. Healthy buildings include features such as systems to clean the air, hush glass and reduced glass to core depths. Floor plans are also changing with fewer columns and more egalitarian designs (high quality environments for staff) becoming commonplace requiring larger floor plates, again this is with increased productivity in mind. There is also a recent trend of inviting community spaces within an office environment has led to the creation of more communal spaces such as coffee bars, informal meeting spaces with lounge furniture, Internet spaces in break rooms, and other areas. Other community features such as sports bars, and gyms are also showing up in new office projects. Again these trends are believed to translate into increased productivity, less employee turnover and strong team building. 50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 10 -
Another trend is office ‘hoteling’ facilities which accommodates for employees that work frequently outside of the office but need a workplace when in-house. A certain number of workspaces are supplied where employees can book a space for when they are on site, without tying up valuable floorspace when they are out of the office. The recently opened Vodafone office in Auckland has a similar design. Increasing technological developments are changing workplaces much like they are changing work habits. Increasing technological requirements are making new developments and older building stock carry more ducting for cables such as fiber optics and other space for hardware. This trend also makes those areas well situated for Internet access with high bandwidths more desirable. Recycling underutilised buildings through conversion of abandoned spaces like theatres to educational facilities, and shopping malls to corporate centers has emerged as another recent international trend. Acquisition costs for distressed malls are low, and the existing shell can be quickly retrofitted for other uses in less time than new construction. Shopping malls are attractive options for office data and call center facilities. Shopping malls also offer large floor plates for flexible planning arrangements for larger tenants. Parking provision in shopping malls make them for people-intensive call centers and back office operations with high density employee populations and overlapping shifts. The enclosed design provides a secure environment, and tenants can share amenities such as food courts, fitness facilities, conference training facilities and day care centers. Having these common facilities allows the tenants to forgo leasing additional space to accommodate these amenities within their own premises, and increase both the quality and number of options available to staff. 50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 11 -
4. MANUKAU BUSINESS MARKETS
It is important to assess past business location trends within Manukau in
order to ascertain where specific business sectors are choosing to locate
under current conditions.
Figures 1-3 show the three different markets in terms of employment
growth in Manukau City over the past 7 years.
FIGURE 1: COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY LOCATION (2000 – 2007)
Commercial EC Growth
200 to 1,800
50 to 200
10 to 50
0 to 10
-50 to 0
-360 to -50
Source: Property Economics. Statistics NZ
Figure 1 above demonstrates the distribution of commercial employment
growth in Manukau City over the past 7 years. Key points to note include
the consolidation of activity from outlying areas (especially rural) to three
main ‘hubs’, Manukau Central/Wiri, East Tamaki and the Airport.
Interestingly the Airport and its surroundings have seen a substantial level
of growth in commercial activity due in part to the level of ‘support
services’ that have located here and partly due to the level of
communication services.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 12 -FIGURE 2: INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY LOCATION (2000 – 2007)
Industrial EC Growth
200 to 1,300
50 to 200
5 to 50
0 to 5
-50 to 0
-430 to -50
Figure 2 demonstrates the distribution of industrial employment growth in
Manukau City over the past 7 years. This map once again shows the
consolidation of activity around three main areas, the Airport (including
Airport Oaks), East Tamaki / Highbrook and Wiri. There has also been a
movement away from the higher density locations around Manukau with
a greater focus on accessibility.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 13 -FIGURE 3: RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY LOCATION (2000 – 2007)
Retail EC Growth
200 to 1,180
50 to 200
10 to 50
0 to 10
-50 to 0
-270 to -50
Figure 3 above demonstrates the distribution of retail employment growth
in Manukau City over the past 7 years. Botany and the Airport have
experienced the highest levels of growth, with the market also showing the
emergence of retail activity in the more traditional industrial areas with
many factories now selling ‘seconds’ and ‘end of line’ stock direct to the
market.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 14 -5. INDUSTRIAL TRENDS BY MARKET
Six catchments within the Manukau City limits have been identified within
the associated residential study. It is considered appropriate for the
purposes of this report to continue to utilise these. This section illustrates
industrial land values and identifies employment based changes for each
area from 2000 to 2007.
5.1 Industrial Land Values
The growth experienced by Manukau City over the past 8 years has had a
considerable impact on the price of land in the area. Industrial land
especially has seen significant increases over this time period which has
lead to several spatial outcomes.
Firstly industrial business has consolidated, with higher value industry
entering the market firms seeking cheaper land have vacated locations
further out in favour of moving to Hamilton and to a lesser degree
Franklin. Also with the rise in land values and the increasing amenity
afforded by rising populations (and house prices) other uses are
competing for this land. This latter impact illustrates the importance of
supplying appropriately zoned land for these higher uses so as to secure
land of important industrial growth.
Figures 4 and 5 show the increase in industrial land values to 2006.
These values have climbed steadily as demand pressure from central
Auckland continues to take up supply in Manukau. It is important to note
here that some of this uptake has been based on business preparation for
future growth, growth that may not be seen now for an extended
timeframe.
FIGURE 4: MANUKAU INDUTSRIAL LAND UPTAKE AND LAND VALUE
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 15 -Figure 5 shows the considerable difference experienced by the Wiri /
Manukau area and that of East Tamaki and Highbrook. These
differences are not necessary reflective of the overall demand for these
location but the types of demand locating in these areas.
Due to East Tamaki’s proximity to Auckland CBD, greater amenity and
access to a higher skilled workforce, demand has been generated by non-
industrial activity as well as higher value industrial activity locating here.
FIGURE 5: MANUKAU INDUSTRAIL LAND VALUES BY AREA
It is important to note the impact that these price changes have on the
market. Simple economics would suggest that as price increases not only
does the quantity of business land supplied to the market increase but
also the ‘value’ of the businesses located on them. This theory does not
hold out in every case and especially over a short or medium term. Land
banking continues to operate resulting in businesses being forced to
locate in suboptimal locations and low ‘value’ businesses can persist for
decades in locations where the land value outstrips their production
value. The likelihood of these anomalies must be considered with regards
to the wider areas identified.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 16 -5.2 Employment Composition
Changes in employment composition and growth trends for each of the
six identified catchments are outlined in Tables 1 to 6, these are broken
down by sector.
TABLE 1: FLAT BUSH EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 42 42 42 33 39 27 27 49
B Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C Manufacturing 39 60 67 89 266 93 69 66
D Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E Construction 228 219 215 237 240 334 366 321
F Wholesale Trade 200 15 24 24 51 78 84 81
G Retail Trade 83 24 633 680 846 930 1,029 1,324
H Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 58 81 109 173 211 239 353 429
I Transport and Storage 146 103 112 120 146 168 206 160
J Communication Services 27 0 6 9 9 3 12 15
K Finance and Insurance 0 3 27 44 43 59 87 109
L Property and Business Services 638 129 135 125 206 236 320 373
M Government Administration and Defence 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
N Education 118 71 236 293 447 532 704 712
O Health and Community Services 234 296 314 248 271 303 344 369
P Cultural and Recreational Services 136 62 48 51 51 190 228 212
Q Personal and other Services 27 12 87 80 131 133 151 158
Total All Industries 1,976 1,117 2,055 2,206 2,957 3,325 3,980 4,378
As would be expected, the Flat Bush catchment has seen considerable
proportional growth given the actual and expected growth in residential
activity in the area. The vast majority of activity in this area has been
driven by the local market, due to its limited accessibility at this point. Of
the increase of 2,400 employees well over 2,000 of these are in retailing
and consumer based businesses.
TABLE 2: AIRPORT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 406 462 328 510 326 291 322 462
B Mining 23 12 18 18 15 18 27 24
C Manufacturing 5,188 4,941 4,911 5,034 5,179 5,279 5,056 4,659
D Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 120 150 155 140 125 140 140 150
E Construction 596 482 456 466 441 590 797 743
F Wholesale Trade 1,836 1,646 1,736 1,757 1,816 2,004 2,132 2,325
G Retail Trade 2,809 2,814 2,898 2,851 2,818 2,956 3,127 3,213
H Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 2,099 2,024 1,972 1,953 2,163 2,212 2,303 2,213
I Transport and Storage 7,008 7,128 7,096 7,548 8,174 9,098 9,434 9,854
J Communication Services 706 793 767 769 916 947 994 925
K Finance and Insurance 205 224 235 276 285 249 362 297
L Property and Business Services 1,701 2,042 2,213 2,317 2,475 2,381 2,667 2,633
M Government Administration and Defence 810 796 924 994 889 996 1,011 1,052
N Education 2,144 2,230 2,440 2,679 2,654 2,971 2,764 2,980
O Health and Community Services 4,578 4,794 4,948 4,836 4,974 5,084 5,221 5,334
P Cultural and Recreational Services 246 213 259 272 282 331 341 373
Q Personal and other Services 562 693 633 718 960 964 1,003 1,107
Total All Industries 31,037 31,444 31,989 33,138 34,492 36,511 37,701 38,344
Transport & Storage and Wholesale Trade have made up over half the
employment growth within the Airport catchment, while manufacturing in
this area has dropped. Due to the high level of accessibility and the
increased supply of land the area has become highly desirable for
Storage and increasingly commercial activity (especially support services).
This demand has pushed out more price sensitive activities that do not
require these attributes at this level.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 17 -TABLE 3: MANUREWA EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 125 123 116 92 76 114 131 77
B Mining 21 24 20 20 18 18 18 18
C Manufacturing 7,976 7,735 7,524 7,330 7,622 7,799 7,219 6,709
D Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 100 45 0 0 0 3 0 0
E Construction 952 875 842 983 1,107 1,473 1,462 1,596
F Wholesale Trade 3,026 3,286 3,621 3,581 3,429 3,503 3,514 3,616
G Retail Trade 5,042 5,210 4,997 4,778 5,063 5,110 5,417 5,342
H Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 921 875 911 886 913 916 977 990
I Transport and Storage 1,256 1,308 1,445 1,420 1,279 1,408 1,621 1,673
J Communication Services 253 276 383 401 420 435 412 411
K Finance and Insurance 349 444 403 437 538 524 589 595
L Property and Business Services 2,610 2,562 2,466 2,900 4,360 4,200 4,160 4,359
M Government Administration and Defence 1,213 1,300 1,263 1,460 1,635 1,400 1,505 1,678
N Education 1,670 1,313 1,783 2,053 2,021 2,140 2,042 2,378
O Health and Community Services 1,418 1,493 1,418 1,458 1,607 1,546 1,845 1,787
P Cultural and Recreational Services 498 471 519 644 623 632 644 665
Q Personal and other Services 757 740 850 898 977 1,062 1,228 1,204
Total All Industries 28,187 28,080 28,561 29,341 31,688 32,283 32,784 33,098
Manurewa has seen a fall in more traditional industrial activities towards
more office based businesses. This move has come about due to
residential pressures and reverse sensitivity issues, as well as the
associated land costs. It is important that any commercial activity in this
area be contained, where possible, within existing centres as more
residential pressures are applied in this area.
TABLE 4: HOWICK EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 15 35 65 70 67 104 64 138
B Mining 6 6 6 3 0 0 0 0
C Manufacturing 1,419 1,594 1,786 1,630 1,466 1,414 1,220 1,152
D Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E Construction 817 732 683 772 874 969 1,073 1,065
F Wholesale Trade 527 691 757 805 671 835 843 870
G Retail Trade 3,175 3,199 3,417 3,575 3,906 3,868 3,980 4,003
H Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 999 1,083 1,184 1,185 1,204 1,287 1,319 1,249
I Transport and Storage 405 382 460 489 457 521 483 498
J Communication Services 185 197 172 147 137 192 192 196
K Finance and Insurance 241 355 259 278 308 304 347 410
L Property and Business Services 1,135 1,080 1,098 1,248 1,359 1,458 1,497 1,493
M Government Administration and Defence 36 36 36 36 42 44 49 59
N Education 2,156 1,984 2,244 2,435 2,547 2,700 2,547 2,810
O Health and Community Services 1,118 1,587 1,644 1,682 1,577 1,663 1,626 1,691
P Cultural and Recreational Services 541 444 430 414 469 492 521 509
Q Personal and other Services 588 599 600 559 628 717 781 1,012
Total All Industries 13,363 14,004 14,841 15,328 15,712 16,568 16,542 17,155
The growth of employment has been relatively uniform. Given the
expected fall in manufacturing most other sectors have seen relatively
even growth based on population intensification in the catchment. This
area is likely to see moderate growth based on this population over the
foreseeable future. The potential for marked growth is limited by its
accessibility and the excessive land costs once again supported by the
residential population.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 18 -TABLE 5: EAST TAMAKI EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 35 48 30 30 39 39 36 30
B Mining 0 0 0 0 20 90 18 0
C Manufacturing 9,027 9,236 9,401 10,042 10,385 11,063 11,503 12,057
D Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 66 126 251 248 298 401 406 481
E Construction 976 1,121 1,173 1,228 1,354 1,472 1,470 1,527
F Wholesale Trade 3,381 3,561 3,731 3,927 4,243 4,280 4,598 4,775
G Retail Trade 2,169 2,163 2,111 2,273 2,443 2,526 2,562 2,393
H Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 156 210 262 352 435 386 486 440
I Transport and Storage 981 845 623 707 778 834 871 911
J Communication Services 115 15 15 18 24 56 186 181
K Finance and Insurance 284 323 246 240 245 418 444 489
L Property and Business Services 1,095 1,761 2,353 2,817 3,823 4,082 4,846 5,222
M Government Administration and Defence 88 72 28 29 25 25 40 40
N Education 1,519 1,637 1,684 1,783 1,927 1,985 1,868 1,975
O Health and Community Services 336 402 451 440 489 490 611 870
P Cultural and Recreational Services 94 90 195 182 230 290 312 309
Q Personal and other Services 271 287 282 324 385 409 454 389
Total All Industries 20,593 21,897 22,836 24,640 27,143 28,846 30,711 32,089
Of all the identified catchments East Tamaki has seen the most significant
growth both in employment, business and land prices. This area is
supported by a growing population, both though out the catchment and
into Howick, elevated amenity and a high level of accessibility.
It is interesting to note that a significant proportion of growth has been in
manufacturing. While there is a persistent trend in manufacturing to fall,
there have been gains in higher value manufacturing and relocations
from more central locations within Auckland City. These are the sectors
that Manukau and this area specifically should be pursuing.
TABLE 6: RURAL MANUKAU EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 228 270 256 305 239 222 204 258
B Mining 15 51 51 51 51 30 15 9
C Manufacturing 124 161 158 181 177 222 218 224
D Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 20 18 20 18 18 18 15 15
E Construction 218 245 252 343 347 392 398 408
F Wholesale Trade 67 68 107 73 112 120 119 77
G Retail Trade 80 69 78 101 116 123 169 160
H Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 265 140 181 133 108 60 203 228
I Transport and Storage 78 86 133 105 101 95 92 92
J Communication Services 0 0 6 6 9 3 6 3
K Finance and Insurance 9 3 6 9 9 6 9 18
L Property and Business Services 81 164 114 129 147 254 156 193
M Government Administration and Defence 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
N Education 116 120 124 138 137 158 141 163
O Health and Community Services 33 36 42 33 42 48 57 56
P Cultural and Recreational Services 54 48 36 36 51 39 42 48
Q Personal and other Services 61 64 62 53 69 77 75 109
Total All Industries 1,449 1,543 1,626 1,714 1,733 1,867 1,919 2,061
The Rural catchment has seen little nominal movement over the past 7
years. Growth has fluctuated wildly with most sectors experiencing some
level of gain. Much of the movement generally has been away from these
locations to more accessible areas with higher amenity and better
facilities.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 19 -5.3 Future Employment Growth By Sector
This sector projected employment for Manukau City based on a variety of
factors including:
• National and Regional GDP and employment projections
• Population projections – these are key both to labour force
projections and population based employment (e.g. Retail EC’s,
Personal Service EC’s). The population projections utilised here
are based on the ARC growth strategy.
• Labour Force projections (skilled / unskilled)
• Regional ability to accommodate growth, specially the potential
relocation of business (industrial) activity from the Auckland City.
• Manukau’s relative business land supply and prices
• Trended growth
• Economic development directions
• Locational criteria by sector
• National / Regional and local supply of inputted goods and
location of market
• Business sector analysis
The employment sectors directly derived from population increases are retail,
education, personal services, health & community services and a proportion
of construction.
TABLE 7: ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR FOR MANUKAU CITY (TO 2060)
2007 2016 2046 2060
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 1,014 1,148 1,661 1,838
Mining 51 58 52 50
Manufacturing 24,867 27,217 42,103 46,589
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 646 1,123 1,557 1,723
Construction 5,660 6,782 10,491 11,608
Wholesale Trade 11,744 14,382 20,172 22,322
Retail Trade 16,435 18,903 26,126 28,910
Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 5,549 6,391 10,925 12,089
Transport and Storage 13,188 16,536 24,552 27,168
Communication Services 1,731 2,117 3,275 3,624
Finance and Insurance 1,918 2,651 4,102 4,539
Property and Business Services 14,273 16,575 25,641 28,373
Government Administration and Defence 2,829 3,168 4,900 5,422
Education 11,018 14,224 18,889 20,902
Health and Community Services 10,107 12,098 18,714 20,708
Cultural and Recreational Services 2,116 2,393 3,702 4,096
Personal and Other Services 3,979 5,478 8,474 9,377
Total All Industries 127,125 151,244 225,334 249,346
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 20 -Based on the factors above Property Economics has projected
employment by sector for Manukau City. It is important to note that this
distribution is based primarily on national employment and GDP
projection distributed through a competitive analysis of Manukau’s
business environment and the relative changes likely to result from
changes in the competing environments at both a business and residential
level. Sector distribution is also based on national and international
growth trends, locational attributes sought as well as empirical trends.
6. FUTURE COMMERCIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR
The changes in employment composition and size outlined in the section
above are translated into estimated land demand figures within this section.
An important factor to consider here is the impact that increased or restricted
supply of appropriately located business land has on this demand. It is
important to be aware of the balance between supply led demand and
potentially over supplying inappropriate business land and the impact that
this has on the City’s business environment. Obviously removing restrictions
on more business land has the potential to increase the growth projections in
the preceding section. This increase in supply improves the competitive
nature of Manukau’s business environment, potentially reducing relative costs
and improving the City’s attractiveness to outside business. However there
are several factors that need to be considered here. They include:
• The fall in land costs may introduce businesses that are short-term
and are ultimately detrimental to the sustainability of Manukau’s
economy
• It may reduce the viability of other uses impacting on Manukau’s land
productivity and land is ‘banked’.
• It may result in ‘uncontrolled’ development that fails to capitalise on
clustered business and efficiencies of infrastructure and servicing
• Reduces the relative costs of other externalities (e.g. resulting lower
land costs may cover transportation inefficiencies)
For the purposes of this report it has been assumed that the supply of
business land in Manukau will service some demand that ‘spills over’ from
demand generated through Auckland City activity.
Tables 3 and 4 below translate employment size with the relative land
demand by sector. This ratio between EC’s and net business land demand is
dynamic with evident trends in each sector both increasing and reducing land
intensity. The ratios utilised in these tables are the result of data gathered
and analysed from rating databases around the country. These ratios are of
course sensitive to land costs and the size and efficiency of the local
economy. Tables 8 and 9 are the resulting land demand figures (at ground
level) for both the commercial and industrial sectors.
Table 8 shows commercial land demand by 2060 increasing by 308
hectares. However given the relative (and increasing, although this is relative
to land cost and therefore supply) land intensity the pragmatic result of this
demand is more likely to accommodate itself on approximately 129 hectares.
The intensity of this development will rely on land costs and therefore
competing attributes, with intensity in and around centres at a greater
average than that dispersed around the City.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 21 -TABLE 8: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR FOR MANUKAU CITY (TO 2060 (NET))
Property, Business
Sector Communication Health Government Other Total
Services & Finance
Employee Growth (EC)
2008-2016 386 3,036 1,991 339 481 6,232
2016-2060 1,507 13,685 8,611 2,255 1,002 27,059
2008-2060 1,893 16,721 10,601 2,593 1,483 33,291
Floorspace Growth (sqm)
2008-2016 12,312 71,039 75,642 13,745 36,792 209,530
2016-2060 48,067 320,232 327,208 91,536 76,622 863,664
2008-2060 60,379 391,271 402,850 105,281 113,414 1,073,194
Land Requirements (ha)
2008-2016 4 16 26 5 8 59
2016-2060 17 71 113 32 17 249
2008-2060 21 87 139 36 25 308
7. FUTURE INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR
Table 9 illustrates the likely demand for industrial land by 2060
increasing by approximately 1,400 hectares. This is the result of
substantial growth in both the Manufacturing and Transport & Storage
sectors. Some of this demand can be attributed to the ‘over flow’ for
Auckland City where land prices and demand pressures are likely to result
in a movement south of more land intensive businesses. It is important to
note that this figure is the net demand for industrial land with the gross
figure being closer to 2,000 – 2,500 hectares of land required to met this
demand when considering the services required to facilitate this land.
TABLE 9: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR FOR MANUKAU CITY (TO 2060 (NET))
Transport &
Sectors Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Trade Other Total
Storage
Employee Growth (EC)
2008-2016 2,350 3,348 1,122 2,638 498 9,955
2016-2060 19,372 10,632 4,827 7,939 661 43,432
2008-2060 21,722 13,980 5,948 10,578 1,159 53,387
Floorspace Growth (sqm)
2008-2016 143,117 388,315 32,525 191,283 59,205 814,444
2016-2060 1,179,774 1,233,354 139,980 575,597 78,582 3,207,288
2008-2060 1,322,891 1,621,669 172,505 766,881 137,787 4,021,732
Land Requirements (ha)
2008-2016 49 134 11 66 20 281
2016-2060 407 425 48 198 27 1,106
2008-2060 456 559 59 264 48 1,387
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 22 -8. BUSINESS LOCATION CRITERIA
8.1 Industrial Sector
The location decision process of industrial companies if often complex
and is specific to each business and its operational requirements. There
are however a set of key locational criteria that give an understanding of
the factors affecting business location. These are outlined below.
• Undisrupted water and electricity supply. Note for some businesses
the escalating price of electricity translates into lower profit margins,
especially in power intensive industries. Black-outs and power surges
are costly occurrences for businesses, especially if generators need to
be hired.
• Digital capability – especially access to broadband. Many
businesses now require uninterrupted broadband access. This also
helps future-proof the business location.
• Close proximity / good access to transportation hubs, such as ports
and airports. This is particularly important for logistics and
warehousing/distribution businesses. This can clearly be seen by the
new businesses establishing in or around the business parks close to
the major airports around the country, such as Auckland and
Christchurch, which are heavily dominated by logistics and freight
forwarding companies.
• Proximity to an appropriate labour supply. This varied between
sectors based on the skill level of the workers required. For example
many manufacturing businesses required lower skilled workers
compared to businesses in the professional services sectors, so the
location requirements were slightly different. For many industrial
businesses access to labour is an important consideration in their
location decision making processes, especially for manufacturing
businesses where access to semi-skilled labour is vital. In general,
business locations in areas that have a lower level of access to the
workforce are seen as problematic.
• Location of customers / target markets (domestic and international).
This has a strong influence on location depending on whether the
business is servicing a localised market, a regional market or the
national or international market. For those businesses servicing the
localised market a central location was preferable to reduce travel
costs. For those servicing the national and international markets,
those businesses that had large transport costs sought locations in
closest proximity to State Highway 1.
• Access to major road corridors. This is important for staff getting to
work, clients/reps visiting premises, and the efficient distribution of
goods. Sites (or locations) adjacent to major arterial roads were
preferred and often received a premium in the market. All activities
that have a distribution/logistical focus prefer these locations. As
part of this criterion, improved transportation in industrial areas was
mentioned by numerous businesses as a future requirement,
particularly in regard to better roading networks, traffic management,
and close to public transport services.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 23 -• Location of suppliers. This can be especially important for businesses
that have significant raw material inputs and freight costs.
• A company’s existing network and infrastructure. This can have a
major influence on location, especially for national franchises to
avoid inefficiencies.
• Room for potential expansion and growth on the site. For most
businesses relocating is a very expensive exercise, and for businesses
with significant investment costs into plant and machinery, they like to
have a level of certainty that they will be able to operate from the site
for a long period of time to ensure they achieve a return on their
investment. Thus having the ability to expand their operation to allow
for business growth onsite is important. It’s an important
consideration for businesses who want to mitigate long term risks.
• Land and property costs. This is a key criterion in the location
decision of almost all businesses, particularly those that operate on
low margins.
• Potential to secure resource consent. Often if the resource consent
process is going to be long and drawn out, most businesses will not
enter the process at all as time delays can have significant effects to
their bottom line and business operations. As such certainty is seen
as a big benefit to business locations who can offer it. A master
planned development with Council approval removes this risk.
• Level of congestion in peak times. This is becoming increasingly
important, as it can have a significant influence on delivery
businesses. In many main centres for example, this is now a major
consideration where time delays and trucks getting caught in traffic is
having significant flow-on implications for company logistics and
their ability to service clients to the level required.
• Owner’s home address. This is predominantly for smaller businesses
that have a greater level of flexibility on where they can locate.
• Exposure / Profile. Most businesses seek locations that offer some
level of exposure and profile. This is a cost effective method of
marketing and is able to elevate the brand of a business significantly.
8.2 Commercial Office Sector
Key criteria for office businesses when looking for a location (in no
particular order) include:
• Carparking: Having an appropriate provision of carparking enables
businesses to access staff and clients and is fundamental to a
productive commercial environment.
• Accessibility: Access to clients and a workforce are fundamental to
the productivity and efficiency of a commercial environment. This
requires sufficient carparking, roading infrastructure and public
transport.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 24 -• Profile: Profile is important to office business. This incorporates
several aspects, including physical profile (the presence of a brand)
and the prestige profile, relating to the perception of quality a
location can instil in a business.
• OPEX (Operational Expenses) – rent, body corporate, rates, lighting,
power, carpark costs, etc. OPEX can have an influence on the total
cost of doing business, and in locations were rates increase total
OPEX will be less
• Building quality: Many highly productive office based businesses
require high quality buildings to attract clients and retain staff.
Having a supply of A-Grade office space is a clear indication of a
high performing office market. This applies to small through to large
sized office buildings.
• Space flexibility: Room for potential expansion and growth on the
site. For many businesses relocating is a very expensive exercise, and
for businesses with significant investment costs into plant and
machinery, they like to have a level of certainty that they will be able
to operate from the site for a long period of time to ensure they
achieve a return on their investment. Thus having the ability to
expand their operation to allow for business growth onsite is
important. It’s an important consideration for businesses who want to
mitigate long term risks.
• Amenity: Amenity is becoming more important for business location
decisions, in large part because firms are looking to provide a high
quality environment to attract and retain staff. Amenity refers both
the urban environment and the range of shops and services that can
be accessed from a location. Of particular importance is access to
high quality cafes and restaurants.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 25 -9. RETAIL DEMAND
Table 10 below estimates the total demand for retail floorspace in
Manukau City to 2060. It shows an estimated increase in net retail
floorspace of some 670,000sqm required over the next 50 years.
In terms of gross retail floorspace this equates to around 960,000sqm,
while the total amount of land required to accommodate this, under
projected conditions, is 213 hectares of ‘at grade’ land.
TABLE 10: TOTAL ESTIMATED RETAIL FLOORSPACE DEMAND (TO 2060)
2007 (sqm) 2046 (sqm) 2060 (sqm)
Food Retailing 83,744 199,918 226,966
Footwear 3,574 8,531 9,686
Clothing and Softgoods 22,080 52,710 59,842
Furniture and Floorcoverings 28,688 68,486 77,752
Appliance Retailing 46,244 110,395 125,331
Hardware 25,263 60,309 68,468
Chemist 11,090 26,474 30,056
Department Stores 67,439 160,993 182,775
Recreational Goods 29,823 71,195 80,827
Cafes, Restaurants and Takeaways 25,311 60,422 68,597
Personal and Household Services 18,214 43,482 49,365
Other Stores 29,973 71,553 81,233
Total 391,444 934,469 1,060,897
Retail land demand is based on several factors including:
• Projected population / household changes
• Income projections
• Demographic composition
• Real retail growth of 1% per annum (based on trend data from the
past 20 years along with relevant changes)
• Proportional non-spatial retail demand e.g. mail order and
internet retailing trends
• Sustainable retail floorspace productivities, based on a tempered
average national average
These retail projections are based on the average retail generation which
equates to demand. This demand includes ‘spend’ that ‘leaks’ in or out
of the catchment as well any retail spend that does not enter the market
due to the lack of local retail offer.
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 26 -10. BUSINESS INTENSIFICATION SCENARIOS
Assumptions:
• Higher density commercial development
• Future levels of intensity differ for each sector but average at
approximately 2.7 levels (excluding the opportunity for retail space at
ground level) in centre, and an average of 1.9 levels in other areas
TABLE 11: COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION
Land Requirements (ha)
2008-2016 3 8 12 3 6 30
2016-2060 8 27 41 15 8 99
2008-2060 10 35 53 18 14 129
In-centre 7 23 32 12 11 85
Other 3 12 21 5 3 44
Source: Property Economics
• Higher density industrial development
• Increased volume / land area for storage and transportation. A
trended position (from regional data) would suggest that technology
is allowing storage to increase vertically. If this trend were to
continue the per employee ratio require would fall by over 200sqm.
• Manufacturing too shows trends of intensification on land that is
increasing in value, although at a slower rate than storage. These
trends would indicate a fall of some 38% of land per employee (this
is based on increasing land productivity) by 2060.
• Both construction and trade show some inclination towards
intensification, however the fact that they are generally higher value
sectors has tempered this likelihood.
TABLE 12: INDUSTRIAL LAND REQUIREMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION
Land Requirements (ha)
2008-2016 36 84 11 63 20 213
2016-2060 252 185 46 179 26 688
2008-2060 288 269 57 241 46 901
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 27 -10.1 Future Business Locations
This section seeks to distribute this business land demand based on the
attributes required by each of the industrial and commercial sectors. The
industrial demand is based on net land rather than the intensified figure
due to the differing land price in each area. Tables 14 to 17 distribute
industrial land demand between the four main (based on the City’s
attributes) industrial areas both now and in the future. It also bases this
on the competitive nature of these areas in comparison to Tauranga,
Hamilton and Franklin.
TABLE 13: TOTAL INDUSTRIAL LOCATIONAL DEMANDS (2060)
Large Medium Small Lots
Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha)
Low Value 475 182 47 705
Medium Value 242 274 56 572
High Value 36 32 43 110
Total 754 488 145 1,387
Table 14 outlines the likely future demand for industrial land at the
Airport. This demand is based primarily on storage and transportation
which requires a significant amount of medium sized (2 – 8,000sqm),
medium priced sites. This equates to 364 hectares of business land.
TABLE 14: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL AIRPORT DEMAND (2060)
Large Medium Small Lots
Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha)
Low Value 121 47 4 172
Medium Value 82 82 7 171
High Value 3 11 7 21
Total 207 139 18 364
Table 15 shows that the locational attributes of Wiri are likely to result in
the greatest demand for future industrial land in this area. A prime
consideration here is accessibility and the affordability of this location.
TABLE 15: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL WIRI DEMAND (2060)
Large Medium Small Lots
Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha)
Low Value 242 93 14 349
Medium Value 103 116 17 236
High Value 3 4 5 13
Total 348 214 36 598
The Mangere area is likely to accommodate industrial businesses that
service a more localised area and therefore will be relatively over
represented by smaller lots.
TABLE 16: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL MANGERE DEMAND (2060)
Large Medium Small Lots
Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha)
Low Value 40 16 16 72
Medium Value 21 35 17 72
High Value 0 0 5 5
Total 61 50 38 149
50616-5.0-005 MCC T2060 Business Assessment.doc - 28 -You can also read
