Moving Forward Transit Strategy Report
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Moving Forward
Transit Strategy Report
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report
Table of Contents
1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1-1
Objectives ........................................................................................................................... 1-1
Approach ............................................................................................................................ 1-2
2. Background ........................................................................................................................ 2-1
Existing Transit Network.................................................................................................... 2-1
Travel Trends and Challenges .......................................................................................... 2-2
Planning Context............................................................................................................. 2-10
Transit Objectives ........................................................................................................... 2-15
3. Transit Network Planning .................................................................................................. 3-1
Network Scenarios ............................................................................................................ 3-1
Service Hour Targets ......................................................................................................... 3-9
Bus Requirements .......................................................................................................... 3-10
GRT Route Hierarchy ...................................................................................................... 3-12
Service Levels ................................................................................................................. 3-13
New Services and Infrastructure ................................................................................... 3-14
Implementation Phasing ................................................................................................ 3-18
Network Performance .................................................................................................... 3-20
4. Transit Priority Measures .................................................................................................. 4-1
Guidelines for Implementing Transit Priority Measures.................................................. 4-2
Ongoing and Future Transit Priority Projects ................................................................... 4-3
5. New Service Delivery Models ............................................................................................ 5-1
Dynamic and Flexible Transit Options for Grand River Transit ....................................... 5-2
Dynamic and Flexible Transit in Other Municipalities ..................................................... 5-3
Future Service Delivery Models ........................................................................................ 5-4
6. Costs ................................................................................................................................... 6-1
Capital Costs ...................................................................................................................... 6-1
Operating Costs and Fare Revenue ................................................................................. 6-2
7. Transit Needs Beyond 2041 ............................................................................................. 7-1
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Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report Table of Exhibits Exhibit 2.1: Map of Existing GRT Routes and GO Transit Service............................................ 2-3 Exhibit 2.2: Map of Existing GRT Routes and GO Transit Service (Cambridge) ...................... 2-4 Exhibit 2.3: Map of Existing GRT Routes and GO Transit Service (Kitchener) ........................ 2-5 Exhibit 2.4: Map of Existing GRT Routes and GO Transit Service (Waterloo) ......................... 2-6 Exhibit 2.5: Changes in GRT Revenue Service Hours and Ridership, 2007–2018 ............... 2-8 Exhibit 2.6: Changing Mode Shares for Short (2 to 5 kilometres) Trips ................................. 2-9 Exhibit 2.7: GRT Business Plan Service Hours, Ridership, and Bus Purchases, 2017–2021 ............................................................................................................................. 2-13 Exhibit 2.8: ION Stage 2 LRT Route (as of May 2018) .......................................................... 2-14 Exhibit 2.9: Population and Employment Forecasts for the Region of Waterloo................. 2-15 Exhibit 3.1: 2041 GRT Transit Network – Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.................................... 3-3 Exhibit 3.2: 2041 GRT Transit Network – Recommended Scenario ....................................... 3-5 Exhibit 3.3: 2041 GRT Transit Network – Recommended Scenario (Cambridge) ................. 3-6 Exhibit 3.4: 2041 GRT Transit Network – Recommended Scenario (Kitchener) ................... 3-7 Exhibit 3.5: 2041 GRT Transit Network – Recommended Scenario (Waterloo) .................... 3-8 Exhibit 3.6: Future Bus Revenue Service Hours Required by 2041 ....................................... 3-9 Exhibit 3.7: Steps to Calculate 2041 GRT Service Hour Requirements .............................. 3-10 Exhibit 3.8: Steps to Calculate 2041 GRT Bus Fleet Requirements .................................... 3-11 Exhibit 3.9: GRT Service Growth Vehicle Purchases, 2018–2041 ...................................... 3-12 Exhibit 3.10: GRT Route Headways and Required Buses by Year, PM Peak Period, 2021–2041 ............................................................................................................................. 3-14 Exhibit 3.11: Proposed 2041 Regional Express Bus Network.............................................. 3-17 Exhibit 4.1: Transit Priority Measure Selection Framework ..................................................... 4-2 Exhibit 5.1: New Mobility Paradigm for Inter-Modal Users....................................................... 5-4 Exhibit 6.1: Transit Capital Growth Costs by Category and Term ............................................ 6-2 Exhibit 6.2: Transit Operating Costs by Category and Year ...................................................... 6-3 ii
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report Table of Exhibits continued Exhibit 7.1: Map of Rapid Transit and Rail Corridors for Protection Beyond 2041................ 7-3 Exhibit 7.2: Map of Transit Corridors for Protection Beyond 2041 (Cambridge).................... 7-4 Exhibit 7.3: Map of Transit Corridors for Protection Beyond 2041 (Kitchener) ..................... 7-5 Exhibit 7.4: Map of Transit Corridors for Protection Beyond 2041 (Waterloo) ....................... 7-6 iii
1. Introduction The Region of Waterloo is currently updating its Transportation Master Plan (TMP), a process that will identify transportation infrastructure needs to the year 2041. This 2018 TMP builds upon the 2010 Regional Transportation Master Plan (RTMP), which described changes to the Region’s transportation system up to the year 2031, and presents a plan for roads, public transit, and active transportation that will support the Region as it grows. As with the 2010 RTMP, transit is a major component of this 2018 TMP. Objectives This report focuses on changes to the public transit network and related infrastructure in the Region of Waterloo, with an emphasis on higher-order transit (GRT iXpress, ION, and GO Transit). This report also considers the impact of land use intensification within the Region on transit services, such as those in the Central Transit Corridor. 1-1
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report
Specific goals and objectives of this report include:
Reviewing and refining the 2031 higher-order transit network proposed in the 2010
RTMP;
Developing an updated transit network for the horizon year of 2041, including a
phased plan for the implementation of required changes;
Assessing the impacts, benefits, and feasibility of the proposed higher-order transit
network;
Developing a toolbox of transit priority measures and a methodology for applying these
measures to corridors and locations in the Region;
Proposing ways for the Region to use alternative transit delivery models and new
mobility options to provide service to areas that pose a challenge to conventional
transit;
Developing cost estimates for the recommended transit network; and
Identifying corridors to be protected for transit service or improvements beyond the
2041 horizon year.
Approach
The development of this transit strategy begins by identifying current and historical travel
trends within the Region, in addition to assessing the existing transit network and service for
shortcomings or gaps. Considering these findings, a transit mode share target is identified
for the plan’s horizon year of 2041. To reach this target, committed and proposed changes
identified from a number of sources are applied to the existing network to propose a future
year transit system; these sources include the 2010 RTMP, the Grand River Transit (GRT)
Business Plan 2017-2021, and the Metrolinx 2041 Regional Transportation Plan. If any
gaps still exist, additional projects are identified to provide the service needed to achieve
transit mode share targets. Further network improvements, including transit priority
measures and new service delivery models, are also added to the network to improve route
performance and provide service to new areas, respectively. These changes are then
phased, identifying horizon years over which each set of changes should be implemented,
and both capital and operating costs are calculated.
1-2
2. Background Existing Transit Network Grand River Transit (GRT) provides public transit service throughout the Region of Waterloo, specifically to the cities of Kitchener, Waterloo, and Cambridge, as well as the Townships. GRT operates both express and conventional bus routes, as well as community and specialty transit services using smaller vehicles. As of January 2018, GRT operated 70 routes, five of which are branded as iXpress routes designed to provide high-frequency corridor service. In 2019, Stage 1 of ION rapid transit will open in Kitchener and Waterloo, replacing the existing 200 iXpress route. This consists of 19 kilometres of Light Rail Transit (LRT), travelling between Conestoga Mall in Waterloo and Fairview Park Mall in Kitchener, paired with 17 kilometres of adapted Bus Rapid Transit (aBRT), travelling between Fairview Park Mall and Ainslie Street Terminal in Cambridge. There will be a total of 36 stops along the entire ION corridor. 2-1
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report In addition to GRT services, the Region of Waterloo is also served by GO Transit. Weekday peak commuter rail service is provided between Kitchener GO Station, located in downtown Kitchener, and Toronto’s Union Station. This service was recently expanded to run five trains to Union Station in the morning peak period and five trains to Kitchener in the evening peak period. GO bus routes also serve Kitchener, Cambridge, and Waterloo seven days per week, providing connections to destinations across the GTA. The Existing GRT and GO networks in Waterloo Region, Cambridge, Kitchener, and Waterloo are presented in Exhibit 2.1, Exhibit 2.2, Exhibit 2.3, and Exhibit 2.4. Travel Trends and Challenges Since the completion of the 2010 RTMP, a number of travel trends and challenges have been identified which provide information about how the transit network is being used and highlight ways in which transit can be improved. Inter-Regional Travel is Growing Over 1 million trips begin in the Region of Waterloo every day, the majority of which (94%) also end within the Region. However, the number of Waterloo-based trips ending in Guelph, Toronto, Hamilton, Brantford, and other local regions and municipalities has been steadily growing. Between 2006 and 2016, the proportion of trips ending outside the Region has grown from under 5% to 6%, an increase of 15,000 daily trips. The importance of this trend is twofold; first, it suggests that the market for inter-regional travel is growing, so emphasis should be placed on providing new and improved inter- regional transit services to draw travellers away from auto use for these trips. Second, this trend highlights the importance of local transit (to serve the majority of Regional trips) and improved connections between local and inter-regional transit, which can serve all travellers in the Region. Post-Secondary Students Make Up a Large Share of Transit Ridership A major traveller group within the Region is post-secondary students, including those attending the University of Waterloo, Wilfrid Laurier University, and Conestoga College. Based on results from the Ministry of Transportation’s 2012 Post Secondary School Travel Survey, post-secondary students have a comparatively low auto mode share (29%), while they are frequent users of active modes (36%) and transit (35%). This high transit usage can be attributed in part to the introduction of a universal bus pass for University of Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier University students – this pass is funded through mandatory student fees and allows unlimited travel on the GRT system. Conestoga College plans to implement the universal bus pass in 2019. 2-2
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report EXHIBIT 2.1: MAP OF EXISTING GRT ROUTES AND GO TRANSIT SERVICE 2-3
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report EXHIBIT 2.2: MAP OF EXISTING GRT ROUTES AND GO TRANSIT SERVICE (CAMBRIDGE) 2-4
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report EXHIBIT 2.3: MAP OF EXISTING GRT ROUTES AND GO TRANSIT SERVICE (KITCHENER) 2-5
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report EXHIBIT 2.4: MAP OF EXISTING GRT ROUTES AND GO TRANSIT SERVICE (WATERLOO) 2-6
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report While ridership among post-secondary students is already high, it may be worthwhile to further increase the attractiveness of transit for this group. The benefits of increasing transit ridership among students include potentially establishing long-term transit use habits for these individuals and growing sustainable transportation use in the Region. Ridership Trends Highlight Growth Challenges Since 2007, the number of annual transit service hours provided by GRT has steadily grown from 500,000 to over 750,000. This increase in service was initially matched with annual ridership growth, peaking at nearly 22 million riders in 2013. Although annual ridership proceeded to decline between 2013 and 2016, as shown in Exhibit 2.5, this trend recently reversed and ridership has grown throughout 2018. The trend of declining ridership was observed across North American transit agencies, and was the result of a number of factors including low gasoline prices and the emergence of new Transportation Network Companies (TNCs)1, increasing auto use, increases in active transportation, and changes in teleworking habits (reducing trip rates). In Waterloo Region, additional factors included: Transit detours due to ION LRT construction; School boards providing yellow bus transportation instead of GRT school routes; Fare increases; and Localized service reductions in 2013 and 2014. In addition to historical changes in GRT ridership and service hours, it is important to consider how transit is being used relative to other travel modes in the Region. As of 2016, approximately 85% of work trips started by Waterloo residents were made using private automobiles, while only 4% of these trips used transit. This suggests that more can be done to make transit an attractive alternative to car travel for workers, such as providing more frequent service when it is needed to reach employment destinations. Similarly, only 2% of discretionary trips (shopping, appointments, etc.) used transit, suggesting that changes are required to better connect travellers with non-work destinations. 1TNCs represents the generic term used to refer to service providers of new forms for mobility where passengers are matched with drivers using software applications accessible through mobile phones or computers. Examples of TMCs include Uber & Lyft. TNCs are specifically referred to as Auxiliary Taxis within the Region of Waterloo. 2-7
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report
EXHIBIT 2.5: CHANGES IN GRT REVENUE SERVICE HOURS AND RIDERSHIP, 2007–2018
Source: CUTA Canadian Transit Fact Books, 2007–2016, and Grand River Transit, 2017–2018
A Region-wide survey of travel behaviours, attitudes, and barriers around walking, cycling,
and public transit found that a majority of residents (approximately 68%) would be
interested in using public transit if some of their concerns are addressed. Respondents to
the survey cited the following as top barriers for not using public transit as often as they
would like:
Longer travel time to get between destinations;
Incompatibility between user and transit schedules; and
Too many connections required to get to destinations.
The significant potential to increase the use of public transit group means that all aspects of
the 2018 TMP should attempt to address these barriers. These could be achieved by
implementing strategies that:
Promote more land use intensification;
Provide direct transit routes;
Increase the speed of public transit (e.g. using measures such as transit priority to
reduce delays for transit vehicles, reducing travel times);
Invest in an all-day frequent transit network to expand the hours of service; and
Explore “first/last mile” connections from transit stops to reduce the need for
transfers.
2-8Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report Transit Ridership is Peaked and Tied to Trip Length Transit use also varies significantly by time-of-day and based on the length of trip being taken. Average weekday transit ridership is currently peaked, which reflects peak commuting times and student travel during morning and afternoon peak periods in the Region. Most transit trips begin between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. (morning peak) or 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. (afternoon peak), with a smaller subset of trips beginning around 5 p.m. Transit ridership is generally low outside of these hours, however this may change as GRT expands off-peak service. The influence of trip length on transit use is also important to consider, since users may be unwilling to wait for a low frequency bus or pay a full fare if their trip is relatively short. As shown in Exhibit 2.6, this is reflected in travellers’ mode shares by trip length. Nearly 11% of trips between 2 and 5 km in length were made using transit in 2016, while over 80% of the same trips were made using private automobiles. It is worth noting that the transit mode share for these short trips has been steadily increasing while the auto mode share has been steadily decreasing – in 2006, less than 8% of short trips used transit, while nearly 90% used automobiles. Increasing transit service levels may help encourage more short trips to be made using transit, although this can be challenging given the convenience of making short trips by car in auto-oriented, suburban environments. EXHIBIT 2.6: CHANGING MODE SHARES FOR SHORT (2 TO 5 KILOMETRES) TRIPS Source: Transportation Tomorrow Survey, 2006–2016 Data 2-9
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report Planning Context The 2018 TMP has been prepared with consideration given to a number of previous and current studies and plans. Many of these plans describe existing commitments for transit improvements, outline approved budgets and spending, and describe higher-level planning contexts within which the 2018 TMP has been developed. Specifically, plans and projects that have impacted the transit strategy include: Region of Waterloo Rapid Transit Environmental Assessment; 2010 Regional Transportation Master Plan; Regional Municipality of Waterloo 2018 Program Budget; GRT Business Plan 2017–2021; 2018 Region of Waterloo Ten Year Capital Budget and Forecast; Stage 2 ION: Kitchener to Cambridge; and Other regional and provincial plans. Region of Waterloo Rapid Transit Environmental Assessment The ION Environmental Assessment, an essential step in the process of designing and implementing the ION rapid transit system, was completed in 2009. This document outlines the changes that will be required to upgrade the existing 200 iXpress bus service between Waterloo, Kitchener, and Cambridge to a higher-quality rapid transit service. This includes the selection of specific route segments and rapid transit technologies for this transit corridor, as well as the impact and mitigation measures required for the rapid transit system. Stage 1 of ION consists of a 19 kilometre Light Rail Transit (LRT) system between Conestoga Mall in Waterloo and Fairview Park Mall in Kitchener, and a 17 kilometre adapted Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system operating between Fairview Park Mall and Ainslie Street Terminal in Cambridge. As part of this plan, future protections are in place for Stage 2 – an LRT extension to Ainslie Street Terminal, allowing for end-to-end LRT service between Waterloo and Cambridge. The Stage 1 ION routes are shown in Exhibit 2.1 (page 2-3), and the Stage 2 ION LRT route between Kitchener and Cambridge is shown in more detail in Exhibit 2.8 (page 2-14). 2-10
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report
2010 Waterloo Regional Transportation Master Plan
The 2010 RTMP was developed to achieve four goals; optimize the transportation system,
promote transportation choice, foster a strong economy, and support sustainable
development. With respect to the transit network, objectives of the plan included:
Investing in integrated public transit services to manage demand on key corridors;
Adding connections and linkages within the existing system to minimize the need for
more infrastructure;
Improving the way transit priority and other components of the transportation network
work together to reduce delays;
Encouraging and preserving opportunities for rapid transit, where appropriate; and
Continuing to support innovative approaches to expand the existing transit system.
To meet these goals and objectives, the 2010 RTMP focused on a transit-oriented plan with
strategic road improvements, developed through the use of transit mode share targets. For
the plan’s horizon year of 2031, a p.m. peak hour transit mode share target of 14.8% was
set. This meant that 14.8% of all trips taken within the Region of Waterloo would use a form
of public transit, representing a shift away from private automobile use. In addition, specific
screenline transit mode share targets were set for the 2031 p.m. peak hour, ranging
between 10% and 45% in Kitchener, Cambridge, and Waterloo.
To reach these target mode shares, the following transit projects were proposed in the 2010
RTMP to be part of the 2031 transit network:
Completing Stage 1 of ION, consisting of LRT, from Conestoga Mall to Fairview Park
Mall and adapted BRT from Fairview Park Mall to Ainslie Street Terminal, by 2016;
Growing the iXpress network throughout Waterloo, Kitchener, and Cambridge, which
included improving service frequency and adding more routes by 2021;
Developing new local routes within Waterloo, Kitchener, and Cambridge, as well as
routes to serve surrounding townships;
Improving levels of service for local routes, as well as school/university routes; and
Adding transit priority measures to intersections and corridors in the form of transit
lanes, transit signal priority, and queue jump lanes.
Beyond the 2010 RTMP’s horizon year of 2031, it was noted that local transit capacity
between Kitchener and Cambridge could be improved by extending the ION LRT into
Cambridge (replacing the adapted BRT service between Fairview Park Mall and Ainslie Street
Terminal).
2-11Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report The capital and operating costs associated with service growth in the 2010 RTMP were assessed. For the first 10 years of the plan (2012–2021), transit capital costs were expected to be $285 M, while operating costs were expected to be about $630 M (net of fare revenue). Over the latter 10 years of the plan (2022–2031), transit capital and operating costs were expected to increase to $385 M and $1,050 M, respectively. GRT Business Plan 2017–2021 The GRT Business Plan outlines transit service changes and improvements to be implemented over the five year period between 2017 and 2021. These changes were developed to meet interim transit ridership targets outlined in the 2010 RTMP, in addition to supporting the following six “New Directions” initiatives outlined by GRT: Seamless connections to ION; New express routes running on key corridors; More frequent service on busy routes; More direct routes supporting a grid network; Fast and convenient electronic fare payment; and More comfortable rides, stops and stations. The changes described in the GRT Business Plan would all be made when ION service starts. With this central transit corridor in place, the Business Plan calls for the integration of existing routes and services with ION, including better transfers as well as integrated fares and stations. Local and iXpress route frequencies will be improved during peak periods and midday. Routes will be adjusted to support a grid network, and new routes and route extensions will be added to serve new growth areas and Townships over this five year plan. This plan also calls for transitioning routes away from the Charles Terminal, which will be phased out after 2021. Transfer opportunities would instead be provided at other Downtown Kitchener ION stations or the forthcoming Central Station multimodal hub. Transit ridership goals for the 2018 TMP were based on deferring the 2021 ridership target of 28 million (set in the 2010 RTMP) to 2023. This reduces the 2021 system ridership target to 27.3 million, a level that can be reached by expanding GRT service by 35,000 hours annually, or 4.2%. A schedule of these service changes, in addition to bus purchases and ridership forecasts, between 2017 and 2021 is shown in Exhibit 2.7. 2-12
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report EXHIBIT 2.7: GRT BUSINESS PLAN SERVICE HOURS, RIDERSHIP, AND BUS PURCHASES, 2017–2021 Attribute 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Bus Service Hours 778,000 817,000 856,000 889,000 923,000 LRT Service Hours 0 37,000 55,000 55,000 57,000 Total Service Hours 778,000 854,000 911,000 944,000 980,000 Total Ridership 20.0 M 21.8 M 24.1 M 26.0 M 27.3 M Service Expansion Bus 18 0 6 12 12 Purchases Source: GRT Business Plan, 2017–2021 2018 Region of Waterloo Ten Year Capital Budget and Forecast The most recent Region of Waterloo Ten Year Capital Budget and Forecast for Transit Services (finalized in early 2018) contains detailed expenses associated with the provision of regional transit services from 2018 through 2027. These expenses include capital costs such as bus purchases, station and terminal development, infrastructure improvements, and costs associated with implementing transit priority measures. Major budget drivers and expenses identified in the Capital Budget include: Conventional and articulated vehicle additions; Conventional vehicle replacements; Construction of the Northfield Drive transit facility; Construction of the Fairview Park Mall and Conestoga College Terminals; and Property acquisitions. Stage 2 ION: LRT from Kitchener to Cambridge Public consultation, planning, and design work for ION Stage 2, which will upgrade the ION aBRT service between Kitchener and Cambridge to LRT, is currently ongoing. This process involves revising the LRT route proposed in the ION Environmental Assessment based on public feedback. The new route between Fairview Park Mall and Ainslie Street Terminal in Downtown Cambridge, shown in Exhibit 2.8, was chosen to reduce the property impacts and acquisitions associated with this project. Planning and design work for Stage 2 of the ION rapid transit project is ongoing, and the route is expected to be constructed and operational by 2031. 2-13
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report EXHIBIT 2.8: ION STAGE 2 LRT ROUTE (AS OF MAY 2018) Source: Stage 2 ION: LRT from Kitchener to Cambridge, PCC 4, Public Information Package Other Plans Other plans produced by the Government of Ontario and Metrolinx outline growth and transportation objectives for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), including the Region of Waterloo. These plans generally target horizon years out to 2041, and they have been used to guide the development of the 2018 TMP. The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2017), developed by the Government of Ontario, defines locations within the GGH where growth of both population and employment will take place in the coming years and also describes goals for transportation and infrastructure in order to support this growth. The 2017 growth plan indicates that Uptown Waterloo, Downtown Kitchener, and Downtown Cambridge are all urban growth centres, while the ION rapid transit alignment between them is defined as a priority transit corridor. These definitions are associated with minimum density targets for population and employment in 2031, ranging between 200 residents and jobs per hectare in Downtown Kitchener and Uptown Waterloo, to 150 residents and jobs per hectare in Downtown Cambridge. Future population and employment forecasts have been developed by the Region of Waterloo based on the Growth Plan – these are presented in Exhibit 2.9. 2-14
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report
EXHIBIT 2.9: POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS FOR THE REGION OF WATERLOO
Attribute 2016 2031 2041
Population 535,0001 675,0002 750,0002
Employment 247,0002 286,0002 316,0002
Population and Employment 782,000 961,000 1,065,000
Source: 1 Statistics Canada (2016) 2 Region of Waterloo Moderate Growth Forecast (2018)
The Metrolinx Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) describes both short-term and long-term
improvements to the transit systems in the GGH. These include increasing GO rail service
frequencies on the Kitchener line to 30 minutes during a.m. and p.m. peak times, and
eventually implementing all-day, two-way GO rail service between Kitchener and Downtown
Toronto by 2025. The RTP also proposes adding a new station on this line, between
Kitchener and Guelph in the community of Breslau.
Transit Objectives
Based on the trends and challenges identified, as well as the goals, objectives, and
planning/financial context identified in other plans, a number of objectives have been
developed for the 2018 TMP. The following three objectives specifically relate to the transit
network and service:
Improve connections to rapid transit for all modes, including providing service to low
density areas and new suburban developments;
Take advantage of the Region’s strengths as an innovation hub by using locally
developed technologies and emerging private transportation services, and exploring
opportunities through public-private partnerships; and
Support economic growth by supporting connections to destinations within and outside
Waterloo Region (connections to local and international hubs).
2-153. Transit Network Planning Network Scenarios As part of the network evaluation process for the 2018 TMP, three network scenarios were developed and assessed. Each scenario was based on the 2031 network proposed in the 2010 RTMP, featuring improvements and changes to the road, transit, and active transportation networks. Based on the results of assessing these scenarios, one hybrid scenario was recommended and carried forward. Scenario 1: Extend the 2010 RTMP to 2041 The first network scenario developed extends the 2031 network (developed in the 2010 RTMP) to 2041. This includes projects described in the GRT Five-Year Plan, projects with approved funding in the Region’s 10-year Transportation Capital Program, as well as projects with a high likelihood of being funded or implemented by 2031. With a focus on 3-1
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report transit, this means that investment in express and rapid transit (ION) service will be aggressive through 2041. A map of the potential future GRT network for Scenario 1 is presented in Exhibit 3.1. Scenario 2: More Investment in Transit and Active Transportation The second network scenario is based on increased investments in the transit network, transit service, and active transportation above and beyond the recommendations of the 2010 RTMP. Transit changes that would be made to accomplish this goal include: Developing an all-day high-frequency transit network; Providing more frequent off-peak transit service; Improving transit access to low-density areas; and Protecting corridors for future rail service and ION Stage 3 routes. Scenario 2 would specifically upgrade all route headways to 12 minutes and further upgrade headways on high-frequency local routes and iXpress routes to 8 minutes. This would reduce headways on frequent routes (local or iXpress) by up to 7 minutes, reduce headways on regular local routes by up to 22 minutes, and reduce headways on custom routes (providing specialty or township service) by up to 48 minutes. The GRT network for Scenario 2 is also presented in Exhibit 3.1, where improved headways for different route classes are shown. Scenario 3: New Mobility The third scenario features new mobility options, reducing emphasis on conventional transportation modes. These new options include car sharing, high-occupancy vehicles, on- demand public transit services, and connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). While this scenario was not explicitly evaluated, risks and opportunities from these new technologies were identified, and trends in new mobility were explored to determine how best to meet the Region’s goals. More details about this scenario and the impacts of new mobility are provided in the Transportation Network Assessment Report and the New Mobility Report. 3-2
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report EXHIBIT 3.1: 2041 GRT TRANSIT NETWORK – SCENARIO 1 AND SCENARIO 2 3-3
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report Recommended Scenario The recommended scenario was determined to be a combination of the three initial scenarios, featuring the best elements from each one. The recommended scenario is based on the transportation network from Scenario 1, but with the addition of significant transit improvements and top-performing active transportation projects from Scenario 2. Further, low-performing road projects from Scenario 1 have been deferred to reduce costs without significantly impacting network performance. New mobility options proposed in Scenario 3 are also considered in the context of identifying risks, opportunities, and future policy directions. The evaluation process used to develop this recommended scenario is detailed in the Transportation Network Assessment Report. A map of the 2041 transit network for the recommended scenario in Waterloo Region is presented in Exhibit 3.2. Maps of the recommended scenario for Cambridge, Kitchener, and Waterloo are presented in Exhibit 3.3, Exhibit 3.4, and Exhibit 3.5, respectively. As part of this scenario, the overall transit mode share target of 14.8% from the 2010 RTMP, which identifies the share of all daily trips made in the Region using transit, was carried forward subject to two modifications. First, the horizon year for this target was extended from 2031 to 2041, reflecting recent reductions in transit ridership and associated challenges. Second, the period over which this target is to be achieved was extended from the weekday p.m. peak hour to the weekday p.m. peak period, capturing a broader mix of trips and trip purposes. These modifications are also related to slow population growth in the Region, compared to that projected in the 2010 RTMP. 3-4
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report EXHIBIT 3.2: 2041 GRT TRANSIT NETWORK – RECOMMENDED SCENARIO 3-5
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report EXHIBIT 3.3: 2041 GRT TRANSIT NETWORK – RECOMMENDED SCENARIO (CAMBRIDGE) 3-6
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report EXHIBIT 3.4: 2041 GRT TRANSIT NETWORK – RECOMMENDED SCENARIO (KITCHENER) 3-7
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report EXHIBIT 3.5: 2041 GRT TRANSIT NETWORK – RECOMMENDED SCENARIO (WATERLOO) 3-8
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report
Service Hour Targets
In order to grow transit ridership and meet the specified weekday p.m. peak period transit
mode share target of 14.8% by 2041, GRT service levels must be increased to capture a
greater number of trips. This includes adding new iXpress routes, increasing service
frequencies during peak and off-peak periods, and providing service at times when it is
currently not offered. Together, these changes represent an increase in annual revenue
service hours to be provided by GRT, growing from about 780,000 in 2017 to over 1.7
million in 2041, as shown in Exhibit 3.6. The number of required service hours in 2041 is
based on the assumption that GRT will hold a consistent ridership per revenue service hour
between 2016 and 2041. If this productivity level falls (or grows), more (or fewer) service
hours will be required by 2041, as shown by the shaded range in Exhibit 3.6.
EXHIBIT 3.6: FUTURE BUS REVENUE SERVICE HOURS REQUIRED BY 2041
The 2041 revenue service hour target of 1.7 million hours was calculated using the
following steps, as shown in Exhibit 3.7:
The number of annual transit trips (both bus and LRT) forecast for the year 2041 in the
Region was derived by multiplying the total number of trips in the Region’s travel
forecasting model by the 14.8% transit mode share target, yielding 53.5 million annual
transit trips.
3-9Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report
LRT trips, based on ridership projections in the GrandLinq service plan for 2041, were
then removed from this value to isolate GRT bus trips (46.4 million), as ION LRT
service is accounted for separately.
The number of bus revenue service hours was calculated by dividing the number of
trips by a bus productivity rate – that is, the average number of riders GRT can serve in
one revenue service hour. Assuming that GRT service remains as productive as in
2016 (27.2 riders per revenue service hour), 1.7 million revenue service hours will be
required in 2041, equivalent to 3.1% year-over-year growth between 2022 and 2041.
The numbers of revenue service hours required in each year between 2018 and 2021
were provided in the GRT Business Plan 2017-2021. The numbers of revenue service
hours required in each year between 2022 and 2041 were calculated based on the
3.1% year-over-year service hour growth rate.
If GRT’s productivity increases (serving more riders per revenue service hour) or decreases
(serving fewer riders per revenue service hour) by up to 25%, the number of revenue service
hours required in 2041 may vary between 1.4 million and 2.2 million. However, this report
assumes that productivity will remain constant.
EXHIBIT 3.7: STEPS TO CALCULATE 2041 GRT SERVICE HOUR REQUIREMENTS
Bus Requirements
Given that revenue service hours need to more than double by 2041, additional transit
vehicles will be required to provide this new service. It was determined that 428 peak buses
(calculated as “standard bus equivalents”) will be required by 2041, based on the provision
of 1.7 million revenue service hours by this year. Using the ratio of peak buses to total fleet
size from 2016 CUTA data, a total bus fleet size of 546 vehicles (consisting of 428 peak
vehicles and 118 spares) was identified – more than double the size of GRT’s existing bus
fleet. However, actual numbers of vehicles could change depending on GRT’s investment in
articulated buses.
3-10Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report Based on this assumed fleet growth, GRT’s existing garage capacity of 500 vehicles (which includes the forthcoming Northfield garage) will be exceeded before 2041. As such, about 46 new garage spaces will be required by 2041, which mandates the construction of an additional transit garage. The steps followed to calculate the 2041 fleet size and garage requirements are outlined in Exhibit 3.8. EXHIBIT 3.8: STEPS TO CALCULATE 2041 GRT BUS FLEET REQUIREMENTS Reaching this fleet size over a 24-year period will require purchasing approximately 11.5 fleet growth buses per year between 2018 and 2041, leading to a total of 277 growth vehicle purchases. Once these new vehicles begin to reach the end of their service lifespans in 2034, approximately 9.5 additional replacement buses will need to be purchased each year; this represents an additional 75 replacement growth vehicle purchases. In total, 352 new growth buses will be purchased between 2018 and 2041, as shown in Exhibit 3.9. Between 2018 and 2022, the number of buses purchased each year was set to match the purchase plan defined in the Region’s Ten Year Capital Budget (2018–2027). After this point, annual bus purchases were calculated based on the required increases in service hours, assuming that each bus will continue to provide 3,130 annual revenue service hours. This rate is consistent with that assumed in the GRT Business Plan for 2021. 3-11
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report EXHIBIT 3.9: GRT SERVICE GROWTH VEHICLE PURCHASES, 2018–2041 GRT Route Hierarchy Grand River Transit organizes their bus routes in a hierarchy based on service standards, including service hours and frequencies. GRT routes can fall into three categories; frequent (ION aBRT, iXpress, or major local routes), regular (local routes), or custom (work, school, or township routes). Frequent Routes Frequent routes, including ION aBRT, iXpress, and major local routes, are defined as those that serve major corridors with a 15-minute or better peak headway. These routes maintain a minimum 15-minute headway between the hours of 7 a.m. and 7 p.m., 7 days per week. Outside of peak hours, these routes maintain a minimum 30-minute headway from 5 a.m. to 12:30 a.m. (12:00 a.m. on ION aBRT routes). This service span is intended to allow for convenient transfers between frequent bus routes and the ION LRT. GRT’s definition of frequent transit service aligns well with the service attributes of frequent transit provided by other GTA peer networks. Durham Region Transit’s high frequency network, including cross-regional and major local routes, operates with headways of 30 minutes or better from morning to evening, Monday through Saturday. During peak periods, these routes operate with headways of 10 to 15 minutes or better. York Region Transit’s frequent network is defined by routes with headways of 15 minutes or better from 6 a.m. to 3-12
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report
10 p.m., on every weekday, weekend, and holiday. This includes the VIVA network, which
operates some routes on 7 to 8 minute headways.
Regular Routes
Regular routes consist entirely of lower-frequency local routes, and are defined as those that
prioritize access and service coverage for communities by providing 30-minute or better
headways throughout the day. These routes operate between the hours of 6 a.m. and 10
p.m. from Monday to Saturday, and Sunday service may be flexibly added if warranted by
demand. All regular routes connect to the frequent transit network.
Custom Routes
Custom routes include those serving industrial work areas, schools, and townships within
Waterloo Region (Elmira, Wilmot, Breslau, and Ayr), and those providing alternative service.
Service levels on these routes vary based on the target market, but most operate with 30-
mintue or better service during morning and afternoon peak hours (6 a.m. to 9 a.m. and 2
p.m. to 6 p.m., respectively) from Monday to Friday. Other routes within this category include
alternative transit services, such as BusPLUS routes, that operate using smaller vehicles
and are characterized by flexible, demand-responsive routings.
Service Levels
Based on the GRT route hierarchy, service levels for GRT bus routes have been calculated
for horizon years between 2021 and 2041, inclusive. These service levels have been
calculated to fit within the total number of service hours defined in Exhibit 3.7 while using
the number of peak buses defined in Exhibit 3.8. For these horizon years, three route
classes have been re-grouped as follows:
iXpress routes are separated from high-frequency local routes, and will have the same
or better headways as these local routes;
High-Frequency Local routes consist of key local routes that are operating at high
frequencies, but are not a part of the iXpress network; and
Low-Frequency Local routes consist of regular and custom routes, which provide
service to lower-demand areas and townships. These routes are expected to operate
at the same headways during peak periods.
By 2021, GRT’s iXpress routes will be able to operate at 10-minute headways during peak
periods, while high-frequency local routes will be able to operate at 15-minute headways.
Low-frequency local routes will operate at 30-minute headways. Over the following 20 years,
these service frequencies will steadily increase. iXpress headways will decrease to 8
minutes by 2036, remaining at this level through 2041. Headways on high-frequency local
3-13Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report routes will be reduced to 10 minutes by 2031 and 8 minutes by 2041, while headways on low-frequency local routes, including regular and custom routes, will decrease by 5 minutes every 5 years until headways reach 15 minutes in 2036. These low-frequency headways will be further reduced to 12 minutes by 2041. These changes are shown in Exhibit 3.10. As GRT service frequencies increase, the number of required buses will also increase. The proposed headways for each year have been chosen based on the number of peak buses available in that year. As shown in Exhibit 3.10, the total number of buses required to achieve these service frequencies is equal to the number of peak buses available (based on the purchase schedule shown in Exhibit 3.9). Between 2021 and 2041, it is worth noting that the number of peak buses required for each type of route will nearly double, representing an ongoing commitment to improving the quality of service across the GRT system. EXHIBIT 3.10: GRT ROUTE HEADWAYS AND REQUIRED BUSES BY YEAR, PM PEAK PERIOD, 2021–2041 Horizon Year 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 PM Peak Headway iXpress 10 min 10 min 10 min 8 min 8 min High-Frequency Local 15 min 12 min 10 min 10 min 8 min Low-Frequency Local 30 min 25 min 20 min 15 min 12 min Number of Peak Buses iXpress 73 77 77 96 96 High-Frequency Local 64 79 94 94 117 Low-Frequency Local 94 113 144 177 215 Total Peak Buses 231 269 315 367 428 Total Buses Available 295 344 402 468 546 (including spares) New Services and Infrastructure Between 2018 and 2041, a number of new transit services will be introduced in the Region of Waterloo, in addition to new transit infrastructure and transit service changes. As part of the rapid transit system, the Region’s ION LRT and aBRT system will be introduced, and eventually phased into a complete LRT system. In addition to increasing service levels on existing GRT routes, a portion of the new GRT vehicles and service hours added between 2018 and 2041 will be used on new routes. New infrastructure required to support these routes and service changes has also been identified, in addition to changes to existing 3-14
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report infrastructure. Finally, new GO services and infrastructure, relating to both rail and bus services, have been identified. ION Rapid Transit One of the largest changes to transit in Waterloo Region will be the completion of the ION rapid transit corridor, connecting Waterloo, Kitchener, and Cambridge. This corridor will start as ION Stage 1, consisting of a LRT system between Waterloo and Kitchener paired with an aBRT system between Kitchener and Cambridge. Operations will begin on the ION system within the planning horizon years of the 2018 TMP, and eventually the aBRT section between Fairview Park Mall (Kitchener) and Ainslie Street Terminal (Cambridge) will be upgraded to LRT service as part of ION Stage 2. GRT iXpress Routes Between 2018 and 2041, a number of new iXpress routes will be introduced and one iXpress route will be reassigned. With the introduction of the ION LRT, the 200 iXpress route will be shortened and re-branded as ION aBRT, running between Fairview Park Mall in Kitchener and Ainslie Street Terminal in Cambridge. New iXpress routes will then be introduced progressively to provide high-frequency service to new areas of the Region. In addition to these new routes, existing iXpress routes such as 201 will be modified to better connect with the ION LRT, serve new terminals, and avoid service duplication. GRT Local Routes Changes to local GRT routes can be broadly grouped in two categories: changes to existing routes, and new routes introduced to new service areas. Existing routes will generally be adjusted to form a more grid-like network while increasing service frequencies, allowing travellers to reach more destinations with one or fewer transfers while avoiding circuitous routes. Major routes will also be realigned to better integrate with the ION system, providing travellers with improved transfer opportunities. Route schedules will be adapted to reduce wait times. The second set of changes involves introducing new routes to new service areas. This will be done in response to new developments and passenger demand. Passenger Facilities A number of changes are planned for passenger facilities in Kitchener, Cambridge, and Waterloo, including the development of new stations and the retirement of some existing facilities. With the changes noted and the addition of two new stations, the Region of Waterloo’s transportation network should be well equipped to support future GRT and regional services. 3-15
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report By 2021, routes will be diverted away from using the Charles Terminal in Kitchener as the major passenger transfer point. Instead, other Downtown ION stations in Kitchener will be used as the transfer points for passengers. A new Central Station multimodal hub is being developed at the corner of King and Victoria Streets to replace the Charles Terminal. This facility will serve as a station for GRT, GO bus, and intercity bus services. In addition, the Kitchener GO station will be relocated adjacent to the Central Station hub, providing short and convenient transfers between GO rail, ION LRT, and other bus services. The removal of the Charles Terminal also has implications on other GRT facilities. Facilities formerly located at the Charles Terminal, such as driver lunch rooms, washrooms, and other layover amenities, will have to be added at route-end stations. Confirmed sites for these facilities include Sunrise Centre, Conestoga Mall ION station, and Fairway ION station. Block Line ION station, Conestoga College, and Stanley Park Mall are all potential locations for additional facilities. Finally, new passenger facilities have been proposed for the University of Waterloo and Conestoga College. The University of Waterloo Station will be developed into a transit plaza, featuring a bus-only roadway connecting Phillip Street and Ring Road. It will feature ION LRT platforms in addition to bus bays for use by GRT, GO Transit, and inter-city vehicles. Shelters for passengers and real-time GRT departure information will also be provided. A facility at Conestoga College (which is currently under construction) will provide better connections for routes terminating there, including two iXpress routes and multiple local routes. A facility in this part of the Region would also serve any new routes covering southwest Kitchener, an area that is expected to develop and grow over the coming years. Other GRT Infrastructure With the addition of the Northfield garage, (scheduled to be completed in 2021), GRT will be able to accommodate 500 standard bus equivalents (SBEs) across all of its garages. However, the 2018 TMP plans for the GRT bus fleet to exceed 540 SBEs by 2041. This will require the construction of another new transit garage, ideally with a capacity of 250 SBEs to accommodate larger articulated buses and fleet growth beyond 2041. This garage should be operational by 2036 – potentially sooner depending on GRT’s need to accommodate additional articulated buses – in order to ensure fleet growth can proceed as planned. GO Rail and Bus Service Changes to GO service and infrastructure between 2018 and 2041 will primarily target the Kitchener line. Metrolinx plans to increase the service frequency on this line to two trains per hour (30 minute headways) during peak periods, and eventually provide all-day, two-way service between Kitchener and Toronto’s Union Station. A new GO station on this line is also planned for the community of Breslau, which would be located approximately 7 km east of 3-16
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report Kitchener GO and 3 km north of the Region of Waterloo International Airport. Finally, a portion of the Kitchener line (between Mount Pleasant and Union stations) is set to be electrified, improving service and reducing the environmental impact of GO train movements along this corridor. By 2041, GO bus services between Kitchener and Guelph, and Kitchener and Cambridge, will be upgraded to operate as regional express bus. Other regional express bus routes are planned to connect Cambridge with other regional destinations, including Guelph (via Hespeler Road), Brantford (via Highway 24), and Hamilton (via Highway 8), in addition to existing destinations within the Greater Toronto Area. High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes will also be constructed on Highway 401, helping transit vehicles travel between the Region of Waterloo and the GTA. These proposed changes are presented in Exhibit 3.11. EXHIBIT 3.11: PROPOSED 2041 REGIONAL EXPRESS BUS NETWORK Source: Metrolinx 2041 Regional Transportation Plan, 2018 (pg. 71) 3-17
Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report
Implementation Phasing
The transit changes and improvements for the Region of Waterloo will be implemented in
three phases over the horizon of the 2018 TMP. Short term changes will be implemented
between 2018 and 2021, medium term changes will be implemented between 2022 and
2031, and long term changes will be implemented between 2032 and 2041:
Short Term (2018–2021): ION rapid transit opens, new iXpress routes are introduced,
iXpress and local GRT routes are realigned to complement ION service, all GRT route
frequencies improve (iXpress now 10 minutes, local now 15-30 minutes), Northfield
transit garage opens.
Medium Term (2022–2031): ION LRT Stage 2 opens, new iXpress routes are
introduced as needed, local GRT route frequencies improve (now 10-20 minutes).
Long Term (2032–2041): New iXpress routes are introduced as needed, all GRT route
frequencies improve (iXpress now 8 minutes, local now 8-12 minutes), additional
transit garage opens.
Short Term (2018–2021)
Transit changes in the short term are primarily guided by the 2017–2021 GRT Business
Plan, which describes the introduction of new routes, changes to existing routes, and capital
expenses (e.g. bus purchases) necessary to support these changes. Additionally, Stage 1 of
the ION rapid transit system will be implemented early within this time frame, providing a
central rapid transit corridor in the Region.
In 2019, Stage 1 of the ION rapid transit system will open, consisting of ION LRT from
Conestoga Mall in Waterloo to Fairview Park Mall in Kitchener. This will complement the
adapted BRT (ION Bus) that currently operates from Fairview Park Mall to Ainslie Street
Terminal in Cambridge. By 2021, the ION Bus will be extended to the South Cambridge
Shopping Centre at Main and Dundas. These service introductions will take place at the
same time as a number of changes to iXpress routes in the Region:
200 iXpress will be replaced with ION LRT and Bus, featuring new vehicles;
201 iXpress will be extended to Conestoga College, replacing Route 116 College
express; and
206 iXpress (Coronation) will be introduced, travelling between Fairview Park Mall and
Southwood Drive (Cambridge) via Ainslie Street Terminal.
Changes to local GRT routes during this time period will mainly involve restructuring and
realigning individual routes, forming a grid network and providing better integration with the
ION rapid transit corridor. Other changes include extending local service to new growth areas
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