Nutrien Q4 2020 Results Presentation
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Nutrien Q4 2020
Results Presentation
February 17, 2021
Forward Looking Statements 2
Certain statements and other information included in this document and incorporated by reference, including within “Outlook and Guidance” constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking
statements") under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", “forecast”, "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "intend" or other similar words). All statements in this
document, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: Nutrien’s 2021 annual guidance, including expectations regarding our adjusted net earnings per share,
adjusted EBITDA (consolidated and by segment); expectations regarding performance of our operating segments in 2021; our market outlook for 2021, including Agriculture and Retail and Crop Nutrient Markets and including anticipated supply
and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to crop nutrient application rates, cash grower margins, planted acres, crop mix, prices and the impact of currency fluctuations and import and
export volumes; and acquisitions and divestitures (including expected results and timing of closing thereof). These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control,
which could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.
All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in this document. Although we believe that these
assumptions are reasonable, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place an undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. The
additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to our ability to successfully complete, integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of its already completed and future acquisitions and
divestitures, and that we will be able to implement our standards, controls, procedures and policies at any acquired businesses to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the
parameters expected by Nutrien, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; the completion of our expansion
projects on schedule, as planned and on budget; our expectations regarding the impacts, direct and indirect, of COVID-19 on our business, customers, business partners, employees, supply chain, other stakeholders and the overall economy;
assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2021 and in the future (including as outlined under “Market Outlook” and “Financial Outlook and Guidance” of our news release
dated February 17,2021 announcing our fourth quarter and full year 2020 results as filed on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and EDGAR at www.sec.gov under our corporate profile); the adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability
to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitions and divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; our ability to maintain investment grade ratings and
achieve our performance targets; and the receipt, on time, of all necessary permits, utilities and project approvals with respect to our expansion projects and that we will have the resources necessary to meet the projects’ approach.
Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and business conditions; failure to complete announced and
future acquisitions or divestitures at all or on the expected terms and within the expected timeline; climate change and weather conditions, including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices;
the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy (including tariffs, trade restrictions and climate change
initiatives), government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof; political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including
terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation and security risks related to our systems including cybersecurity risks such as attempts to gain unauthorized access to, or disable, our information technology
systems, or our costs of addressing malicious intentional acts; regional natural gas supply restrictions; counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; gas supply interruptions; any significant impairment
of the carrying value of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of work stoppages; the
COVID-19 pandemic and its resulting effects on business and economic conditions; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Nutrien reports filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in
the United States.
This presentation contains certain information which constitutes "financial outlook" and "future-oriented financial information" under applicable Canadian securities laws, including our adjusted net earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA
(consolidated and by segment) guidance ranges, as well as our adjusted EBITDA price and volume sensitivities ranges, the purpose of which is to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information
may not be appropriate for other purposes.
The forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of the date hereof and Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future
events, except as may be required under applicable US federal securities laws or applicable Canadian securities legislation.
Non-IFRS Financial Measures Advisory
We consider adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net earnings per share, adjusted net earnings per share, adjusted EBITDA and sustaining capital expenditures guidance, Potash cash cost of product manufactured (COPM), ammonia controllable cash
COPM, Free Cash Flow, Retail adjusted EBITDA per US selling location, Retail operating cash coverage ratio, Retail adjusted average working capital to sales, and 2017 combined historical Retail financial measures, all of which are non-IFRS
financial measures, to provide useful information to both management and investors in measuring our financial performance and financial condition. Refer to the disclosure under the heading “Appendix B – Non-IFRS Financial Measures” included
in our news release dated February 17, 2021 announcing our fourth quarter and full year 2020 results, as filed on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and EDGAR at www.sec.gov under our corporate profile, for a reconciliation of these non-IFRS financial
measures to the most directly comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS and for a further discussion of how these measures are calculated and their usefulness to users, including management. Non-IFRS financial measures are
not recognized measures under IFRS and our method of calculation may not be comparable to that of other companies. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial
performance prepared in accordance with IFRS.
Note: All dollar amounts are stated in US dollars throughout the presentation unless otherwise noted.
February 17, 2021
Financial and Strategic Highlights 3
Adjusted EBITDA ($B) Adjusted EPS Free Cash Flow ($B) Current Annualized
Q4’20 2020 Q4’20 2020 2020 Dividend per Share
$ 08 . $ 3.7 0 24 $1 80
$ . . $ 1.8 $1.84
Nutrien’s Dividend Has
+16% -9% +267% -17% -15% Been Increased Three Times
Since 2018
“Our Retail Ag Solutions business delivered a record fourth quarter and we also reported higher potash and nitrogen sales
volumes and lower production costs. With an improved outlook for our business in 2021, we recently increased our
dividend, and announced a 5% share repurchase program subject to regulatory approval”
RETAIL POTASH NITROGEN
$1.4B 9.7% ~$1.1M $59 11Mmt
Record Cash Cost of Product
Record Adjusted EBITDA Retail Adjusted EBITDA Record Adjusted EBITDA1 per Record Nitrogen Sales
2020 Margin 2020 US Selling Location 12.8Mmt Manufactured per Tonne 2020
Volume 2020
Potash
10.6% >$1.2B Fully $43
+16% Sales Volume
US Retail Adjusted EBITDA Digital Sales2
2020 Committed Ammonia Controllable Cash
Adjusted EBITDA Growth Domestic and Offshore
YOY 2020 Margin 2020 2020 Cost of Product Manufactured
Volumes Through April 2021 per Tonne 2020
Note: Percent changes on this page are the current period vs. the comparative period in 2019
1. Rolling four quarters ended December 31, 2020.
February 17, 2021
2. Represents North America results.
Source: Nutrien
Nutrien Adjusted EBITDA 4
Our fourth quarter results reflect strong performance across all of our businesses,
particularly with excellent demand for potash both in North America and internationally and strong Retail growth
Fourth Quarter 12 Months Ended
2020 2019 Change 2020 2019 Change
Adjusted EBITDA
Retail $297 $231 +29% $1,430 $1,231 +16%
Potash $220 $149 +48% $1,190 $1,593 -25%
Nitrogen $266 $259 +3% $1,080 $1,239 -13%
Phosphate $63 $54 +17% $232 $194 +20%
Corporate & Others1 -$78 -$29 -169% -$265 -$232 -14%
Consolidated $768 $664 +16% $3,667 $4,025 -9%
Note: Results shown above are in US$ Millions unless otherwise noted
1. Total includes eliminations.
February 17, 2021
Source: NutrienProgressing Well On Our Operational Targets 5
2019 2020 2023
Actual Results Actual Results Targets
Retail Ag Solutions Business Targets
Total Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin 9.3% 9.7% >10.5%
US Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin1 9.7% 10.6% -
Adjusted Average Working Capital to Sales 23% 15% 17%
Cash Operating Coverage Ratio2 62.9% 61.8% 60.0%
Cash Operating Coverage Ratio Before Reclassification3 62.2% 61.1% 59.0%
Adjusted EBITDA per US Selling location4 $967K $1,075K >$1,100K
Retail Ag Solutions Business Targets
Proprietary Products as a % of Total Margin2 23.3% 22.9% 29.0%
Proprietary Products as a % of Total Margin Before Reclassification3 23.7% 23.3% 29.0%
Total Digital Generated Revenue (% of Total Sales)5 2% 11% >50%
Total Digital Platform Generated Revenue (Millions)1,5 $260M $1,211M -
Potash Business Targets
Cash Cost of Product Manufactured $63/mt $59/mt $50-55/mt6
Nitrogen Business Targets
Ammonia Operating Rate7 91% 93% 96%
Ammonia Controllable Cash Cost of Product Manufactured $45/mt $43/mt $42/mt
1. No target was provided.
2. Assumes incremental reclassification impact from certain immaterial figures.
3. Adjusted to reflect what the metric would have been prior to a reclassification of certain immaterial figures.
4. Calculation is based upon number of selling locations only.
5. Platform generated revenue includes grower and employee orders that are entered directly into the digital platform. North American digital Retail sales as a proportion of total North American Retail sales. 2019 has been restated to align with how we calculated this
measure in 2020. February 17, 2021
6. Assuming production ranges of 14Mmt to 16Mmt and excludes the impact of inflation.
7. Capacity utilization represents production volumes divided by production capacity (excluding Joffre and Trinidad facilities). Source: Nutrien6
Gross margin increased Q4’20 due to stronger sales and firm margins,
with much higher gross margin for crop nutrients, crop protection products and services and other
Retail +19% Revenues
Q4’20
Results +27% Crop Nutrients
Sales Volumes
Proportion of
11% Proprietary Margin
2020 gross margin increased from a combination of organic and acquisition-related growth
Retail
+11% Revenues
2020
Results Crop Nutrients
+15% Sales Volumes
Proportion of
23% Proprietary Margin
1
Results shown in US$ Millions unless otherwise noted.
Note: Change comparisons are the current period vs. the same period in 2019. February 17, 2021
1. Net of Nutrien Financial elimination, which represents the elimination for the interest and service fees charged by Nutrien Financial to Retail branches.
Source: NutrienRetail Ag Solutions Continues to Deliver Growth 7
Strong organic growth, accretive acquisitions and cost efficiency initiatives have grown adjusted EBITDA
2018 2019 2020
US Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin2 9.5% 9.7% 10.6% 1
11%
$1,500-$1,600
Total Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin3 9.6% 9.3% 9.7%
$1,430
$1,500
10%
$1,145 $1,206 $1,231
$1,200
$1,119 $1,091 9.7%
9.6%
$1,033 9.5% 9.3%
$986
9%
$951 9.3%
$900
8.6%
$769 8.5%
8% 8.3%
8.3%
7.5%
$600
7%
$300
6%
$0 5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F
Retail Adjusted EBITDA (US$ Millions) Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin %
Note: 2011-2016 data is based upon Agrium Inc. financials. 2017 based on the combined historical information as presented in our 2018 Annual Report. 2011 to 2017
figures are presented as Retail EBITDA. 2018 to 2020 are presented as Retail Adjusted EBITDA.
1. Based on adjusted Retail EBITDA guidance as provided in our news release February 17, 2021. February 17, 2021
2. Calculated as US Retail adjusted EBITDA divided by US Retail sales.
3. Calculated as total Retail adjusted EBITDA divided by total Retail sales. Source: NutrienRetail Ag Solutions Performance Highlights 8
Continued expansion in the adoption of our industry leading digital platform
combined with strong organic growth & operational improvements
Digital Platform Results
Proportion of Sales1,2 Sales1 Retail Ag Solutions Adjusted EBITDA
Percent US$ Millions US$ Millions
11% ~40%4
$1,211
~60%
$260
1,075K 10.6% 900M
2%
$ ~$
Retail Adjusted EBITDA/US US Retail Adjusted EBITDA Reduction in Retail Adjusted
3 3 Selling Location in 2020 Margin 2020 Average Working Capital in
2019 2020 2019 2020 2020
1. Represents North America results.
2. North American digital Retail sales as a proportion of total North American Retail sales. 2019 has been restated to align with how we calculated this measure in 2020. February 17, 2021
3. The launch of the platform was in March 2019.
4. For recent acquisitions, this represents adjusted EBITDA for the first twelve months following their acquisition dates. Source: NutrienPotash Results: Q4 2020 9
Gross Margin
US$ Millions
• Higher sales volumes from a
strong NA fall application season
drove the increase in gross margin
$139 $145
• Lower net realized selling prices
partially offset the increase
• Higher COGS/mt was due to
production mix and timing of
maintenance projects, offset by
1
Q4'19 Net Selling Price Volumes COGS D&A in Q4'20 increased production
Gross Margin excl. D&A COGS Gross Margin
Adjusted EBITDA Net Selling Price Cash COPM Sales Volumes
US$ Million US$/MT US$/MT Million Tonnes
+48% -9% +41%
-13%
$220 $186 $170 $82 2.7
$71
$149 1.9
1.6 Offshore
1.2
1.1 N. America
0.7
Q4’19 Q4’20 Q4’19 Q4’20 Q4’19 Q4’20 Q4’19 Q4’20
1. COGS variance does not include depreciation and amortization (D&A).
February 17, 2021
Source: NutrienPotash Results: 2020 10
Gross Margin
US$ Millions
• Lower net realized selling prices
impacted gross margin
$1,501
• Record domestic sales volumes
were supported by improved global
$963 crop prices, increased planted
acreage in US and a strong fall
application season in NA
• Lower COGS/mt driven by
production efficiencies and higher
1
2019 Net Selling Price Volumes COGS D&A in 2020 production levels
Gross Margin excl. D&A COGS Gross Margin
Adjusted EBITDA Net Selling Price Cash COPM Sales Volumes
US$ Million US$/MT US$/MT Million Tonnes
-6% +11%
-25% -26%
$1,593 $226 $63 $59 12.8
11.5
$1,190 $167
7.5 8.0 Offshore
4.0 4.8 N. America
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
1. COGS variance does not include depreciation and amortization (D&A). February 17, 2021
Source: NutrienNitrogen Results: Q4 2020 11
Gross Margin
US$ Millions
• Gross margin was higher due
to higher sales volumes from
strong NA fertilizer demand $112
$107
• Lower net realized selling
prices offset the impact of
higher sales volumes
• Lower D&A more than offset
higher natural gas costs,
1
driving lower COGS/mt Q4'19 Net Selling Price Volumes COGS D&A in Other Nitrogen & Q4'20
Gross Margin excl. D&A COGS Purchased Gross Margin
Product
Adjusted EBITDA Net Selling Price Ammonia COPM2 Sales Volumes
US$ Million US$/MT US$/MT Million MT
+3% -8% +20%
-17%
$259 $266 $212 $195 $48 2.8
$40 2.4
Q4’19 Q4’20 Q4’19 Q4’20 Q4’19 Q4’20 Q4’19 Q4’20
1. COGS variance does not include depreciation and amortization (D&A). February 17, 2021
2. Ammonia controllable cash cost of product manufactured.
Source: NutrienNitrogen Results: 2020 12
Gross Margin
• Lower net realized selling US$ Millions
prices in all manufactured
product categories were the
result of lower global $700
benchmark prices
• Recent expansions and $475
strong NA operating rates
drove record sales volumes
• Lower gas & fixed costs offset
1
an increase in D&A, lowering 2019 Net Selling Price Volumes COGS D&A in Other Nitrogen & 2020
COGS/mt Gross Margin excl. D&A COGS Purchased Gross Margin
Product
Adjusted EBITDA Net Selling Price Ammonia COPM2 Sales Volumes
US$ Million US$/MT US$/MT Million MT
-4% +7%
-13% -13%
$1,239 $232 $45 $43 10.3 11.0
$1,080 $203
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
1. COGS variance does not include depreciation and amortization (D&A).
2. Ammonia controllable cost of product manufactured.
February 17, 2021
Source: NutrienGrower Margins Have Improved on Supply Concerns 13
10M acres of US prevent plant in 2020 combined with drought pushing back the soybean planting season in Brazil have created
tight global crop fundamentals, driving prices and grower margins higher since last fall
Key Crop Grower Cash Margins
Local Currency Margin/Acre
US Corn US Soybean US Wheat US Cotton CDN Canola Brazil Soybean
500 2,700
2,300
400
1,900
300
1,500
200 1,100
700
100
300
0 -100
-100
February 17, 2021
Source: Bloomberg, USDA, IMEA, NutrienNutrien Has Leverage to Improving Fundamentals and a Stable & 14
Growing Dividend
Nutrien has significant leverage to fertilizer prices, while at the same time is committed to a stable & growing dividend,
providing investors yield and growth opportunity simultaneously
Dividends Paid
US$/Share
$0.45 $0.46
$0.43
+$650M 4.0
$0.40
Estimated impact to Nutrien Adj. EBITDA from
a $25/mt increase in fertilizer prices1
+$100M
Estimated impact to Nutrien Adj. EBITDA from
additional 1Mmt of potash sales volume
Apr’18 - Oct’18 Jan’19 - Jul’19 Oct’19 - Feb’21 Feb’212
Horizontal axis represents
the length of time at each dividend level
1. Estimated annualized impact to Nutrien Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS from a $25/mt increase in fertilizer prices. Does not include additions potential leverage
from increasing prices for Retail Ag Solutions and excludes potash production taxes.
February 17, 2021
2. Based on the dividend declared February 17, 2021.
Source: NutrienOutlook and Guidance
February 17, 2021Crop Prices Have Improved on Tight Global Fundamentals 16
Lower than expected US yields in 2020 combined with strong Chinese demand have driven crop prices higher
US Corn US Soybean US Wheat US Cotton Palm Oil Brazil Soybean
(US$/bushel) (US$/bushel) (US$/bushel) (US$/lb) (MYR/tonne) (Real/60kg bag)
+49% +44% +16% +36% +39% +33%
$5.41 $13.68 $6.36 $0.87 RM 3,898 R$148
$5.50
$5.13 $0.71
$0.64 RM 2,800 R$111
$3.70 $3.63 $9.25 $9.53
RM 2,411
R$82
Prev. 3 2020 Current Prev. 3 2020 Current Prev. 3 2020 Current Prev. 3 2020 Current Prev. 3 2020 Current Prev. 3 2020 Current
Yr Avg. Avg. Price Yr Avg. Avg. Price Yr Avg. Avg. Price Yr Avg. Avg. Price Yr Avg. Avg. Price Yr Avg. Avg. Price
Prices as of end-of-day February 11, 2021. Spot future prices for corn, wheat, cotton, soybeans, and spot prices for palm oil and Brazil soybeans. Previous 3-year average from January 2018 – December 2020 February 17, 2021
Source: BloombergCrop Input Expenditure Projected to Increase in 2021 17
Increased US acreage, improved crop prices and recoup of Brazilian FX losses from 2020
supportive of >3% increase in crop input expenditures in key markets in 2021
US 4.6% 9.3% W Canada
Robust crop input 4.0%
expenditure growth
2.3% Increased cereal and
0.2% expected in 2021 driven canola acreage
primarily by a rebound in supportive of
-0.8% acreage and significantly expenditures in 2021
-1.2% -1.6%
higher fertilizer prices
-4.5% -7.4%
2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F
2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F
Brazil1 Australia
5.6% 23.7%
4.2% 3.4% While record grower
margins supported strong
acreage and input
4.5% Continued growth in
applications in 2020, they 1.5% Australia expected in
-0.6% were offset by weak FX,
2021 driven by strong
expect a rebound in 2021
crop fundamentals and
continued improvement
in soil moisture
-9.8% -16.8%
-19.7%
2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F
1. Brazil’s FX is subject to high levels of volatility under current market conditions, and unexpected changes to the Brazilian Real’s value would result in changes to the 2021F. The volatility in Brazil’s FX in 2020 adds uncertainty to our 2020 estimate, which February 17, 2021
is on a US dollar basis.
Source: Nutrien, USDA, Statistics Canada, Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, Alberta Agriculture & Rural Development, Manitoba Agriculture, IMEA, CONAB, ABARES, AgInsights, AgBioInvest, CRUUS Corn & Soybean Export Sales 18
US corn and soybean exports sales are currently setting a record pace, driven by strong demand from China;
High export demand has tightened US supply, supporting significantly higher prices and likely acreage increases in 2021
US 2020/21 Corn Cumulative Export Sales US 2020/21 Soybean Cumulative Export Sales
Million Tonnes Million Tonnes
70 70
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 20yr Average 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 20yr Average
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Note: Shading represents a 20-year range of exports sales.
February 17, 2021
Source: USDA-FASFundamentals Stronger for US Grower 19
US corn and soybean supply has tightened significantly, resulting in the lowest stocks-to-use ratios in years
US Corn Ending Stocks & Stock/Use Ratio US Soybean Ending Stocks & Stock/Use Ratio
Million Bushels Percent Million Bushels Percent
3,500 25% 1,000 25%
Ending Stocks
Ending Stocks
3,000
20% 800 Stocks to Use 20%
Stocks to Use
2,500
15% 600 15%
2,000
1,500
10% 400 10%
1,000
5% 200 5%
500
0 0% 0 0%
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Jun'20 Current 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Aug'20 Current
USDA USDA USDA USDA
February 17, 2021
Source: USDAStrong Fundamentals for Brazilian Growers 20
Brazilian growers benefitted from record exports and prices in 2020, are projected to plant record area in 2021,
however, harvest of the current soybean crop and upcoming Safrinha corn crop may be delayed due to La Niña impacts
Mato Grosso Cash Soybean & Corn Prices Brazilian Soybean and Corn Area
Real/Sack Millions of Hectares
180 70
Corn Soybeans
160
60 3.4%
CAGR
140
50
120 Soybeans
100 40
80 30
60
Corn 20
40
10
20
0 0
Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21F
February 17, 2021
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, IMEA, CONAB, Ministry of Foreign Trade and Services Industry, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NutrienTightening Chinese Supply and Demand 21
Rebuilding the Chinese hog herd combined with structural tightening of the corn supply/demand
balance has supported import demand and domestic pricing
China Corn Production Surplus/Deficit China Corn Price
Million Tonnes US$/bushel
36
$11.43
$9.25
$8.10
9 $7.10 $7.08 $6.91
$6.25
(4)
(17) (17)
(28) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Feb. 10
2021
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21F
February 17, 2021
Source: USDA, BloombergNorth American Major Crop Acreage Forecast 22
Weather permitting, we project ~10 million acres of additional cropland in North America driven by high crop prices
Major Crop Acreage
Million Acres
2021
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019 2020
(NTR)
Corn 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.2 88.9 89.7 90.8 91-93
Soybeans 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.5 90.2 89.2 76.1 83.1 88-90
Wheat 56.2 56.8 55.0 50.1 46.1 47.8 45.5 44.3 45-46
Cotton 10.4 11.1 8.6 10.1 12.7 14.1 13.7 12.1 12-12.5
Sorghum 8.1 7.1 8.5 6.7 5.6 5.7 5.3 5.8 6.0
Rice 2.5 3.0 2.6 3.2 2.5 2.9 2.5 3.0 2.6
Total U.S.
249 252 245 247 247 249 233 239 247-250
Major
WC Canola 20.1 20.7 20.6 20.6 22.8 22.6 21.0 20.7 21-22
February 17, 2021
Source: USDA, StatCan, NutrienGlobal Fertilizer Prices 23
Fertilizer prices have continued to increase in recent months on tightened supply and improved demand in key spot markets
Selected Fertilizer Prices Change Since July 2020
US$/mt or st Product US$/mt or st Product
400
350 Brazil CFR (US$/mt) +$50
K 300
250
200
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
US Midwest FOB (US$/st)
Tampa Ammonia CFR
+$103
400 +$125
(US$/mt)
N
300
NOLA Urea FOB (US$/st) +$133
200
NOLA UAN FOB (US$/st) +$78
100
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
600
500 NOLA DAP FOB (US$/st) +$203
P 400
300
200
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
Brazil MAP CFR (US$/mt) +$231
February 17, 2021
As of February 11, 2021
Source: Fertilizer Week, NutrienGlobal Potash Deliveries by Region 24
We project strong global potash demand of 68 to 70 million tonnes in 2021, supported by favorable crop economics and high
affordability levels for farmers around the world and limited inventory build from higher-than-expected 2020 shipments
Million Tonnes KCl
20
15
10
5
0
17 18 19 20E 21F 17 18 19 20E 21F 17 18 19 20E 21F 17 18 19 20E 21F 17 18 19 20E 21F 17 18 19 20E 21F
India Other Asia North America Latin America China Other
4.5 – 5.0Mmt 9.5 – 10.5Mmt 9.5 – 10.5Mmt 14.0 – 15.0Mmt 15.5 – 16.5Mmt 13.5 – 14.0Mmt
Forecast
Expect stable potash Palm oil prices have Supportive crop prices, Strong corn and soybean Expect relatively flat Improved affordability and
2021
consumption and shipments continued to strengthen, and increased planted acreage fundamentals and record- shipments following growing demand for NPK
supported by favorable we expect continued high and the most favorable high grower margins, consecutive record years, fertilizers, particularly in
monsoon forecast and affordability to support affordability in a decade are combined with continued however domestic demand Africa and FSU countries, are
increased minimum support increased potash demand in expected to support robust expansion in cropland, are remains supported by expected to continue
prices and production for key 2021 potash consumption expected to lead to higher tightened crop supplies and boosting potash demand
crops demand in the region high crop prices
February 17, 2021
Source: Nutrien, Industry ConsultantsGlobal Natural Gas Prices 25
Increased European gas and Chinese coal prices are supportive of the global nitrogen cost curve entering 2021
Energy Feedstock Prices
US$/MMBtu
1
$10 Henry Hub AECO European Hub China Bituminous Coal
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
Jan/2018 Jul/2018 Jan/2019 Jul/2019 Jan/2020 Jul/2020 Jan/2021
1. Presented on a US$/MMBtu equivalent basis. February 17, 2021
Source: Fertecon, US EIA, Canadian Gas Price Reporter, CRU, NutrienRebound in Industrial Activity in 2H 2020 Led By China, 26
Supporting Improved Industrial Ammonia Demand
US Manufacturing Index (PMI) EU Industrial Production (excl. Construction)
Index Index
120
65
60 110
55 100
50
90
45 EU Industrial Production has rebounded
November 2020 US PMI declined slightly 80 35% since April low (in 2008, it took 18
40 from October, which was at the highest level months to return to 90% of pre-decline levels,
since November 2018 compared to 5 months in 2020)
35 70
3.5
30 60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
China Manufacturing Index (PMI) Global Real GDP Growth
Index %
60
15 Historically large decline in the global economy in
Q2 2020, projected to move back positive in Q1
55 10 2021 and reach Q4 2019 levels in ~Q3 2021
5
50
0
45 -5
China’s manufacturing index has increased is
40 at the highest level since 2011 -10
-15
35 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
February 17, 2021
Source: Bloomberg, US ISM, Goldman Sachs, St. Louis Fed, OECDNutrien 2021 Annual Guidance 27
2021 Guidance Ranges 1
Low High
(annual guidance except where noted)
Adjusted net earnings per share1 $2.05 $2.75
Adjusted EBITDA (billions) $4.0 $4.5
Adjusted Retail EBITDA (billions) $1.5 $1.6
Adjusted Potash EBITDA (billions) $1.4 $1.6
Adjusted Nitrogen EBITDA (billions) $1.1 $1.3
Adjusted Phosphate EBITDA (millions) $250 $350
Potash sales tonnes (millions) 2 12.5 13.0
Nitrogen sales tonnes (millions) 2 10.9 11.4
Depreciation & amortization (billions) $1.9 $2.0
Effective tax rate on adjusted earnings 22% 24%
Sustaining capital expenditures (billions) $1.1 $1.2
1. All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net earnings per share.
2. Potash and nitrogen sales tonnes include manufactured product only. Nitrogen sales tonnes exclude ESN® and Rainbow products.
February 17, 2021
Source: NutrienThank You!
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