PROJECTIONS OF AIR QUALITY IN EUROPE: A TWO-WAY APPROACH - Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling ...
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PROJECTIONS OF AIR QUALITY IN EUROPE:
A TWO-WAY APPROACH
K.V. VAROTSOS1, 2, C. GIANNAKOPOULOS1, M. TOMBROU2
1 Institutefor Environmental Research and Sustainable, Development, National Observatory
of Athens, Greece
2 Division of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, National and Kapodistrian University
of Athens, GreeceCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON AIR-QUALITY
based on empirical relations between ozone
and atmospheric historical measurements
combined with future projections
2 approaches
(Jacob and Winner, 2009)
based on climate-chemical models for various
greenhouse gas emission scenarios1st Approach
MOTIVE:
METEOROLOGICAL AIR-QUALITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
CONDITIONS (Ο3)
Recent Studies:
• temperature, (Jacob et al., 1993;Silmann et al., 1995)
• solar radiation, (Ordonez et al., 2005)
Ο3 sensitivity to
• number of days since the last frontal passage,
meteorology
(Wise and Comrie, 2005)
• humidity , (Camalier et al., 2007)
• frequency of summertime mid latitude cyclones
(Leibensperger et al., 2008)
Question : Potential increase of Tmax (Climate Change) Ο3 ?1st Approach
Data– Study domain
Field measurements
Ozone:daily maximum of 8-h running average concentrations from 47 non-urban stations in
Europe (EMEP)
Temperature: 2 periods of daily maximum surface temperatures from the E-OBS gridded
dataset (Gridded dataset derived through interpolation of station data), for each ozone
station closest grid point.
• 1961-1990, for validation purposes with the RACMO2 model
• same period to each ozone site year range observations
Regional Climate Model -RACMO2 (KNMI, ENSEMBLES)
Simulation periods for each ozone station closest grid point.
• 1961-1990 period for evaluating the model performance compared to the
gridded maximum temperatures
• 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario .
E-OBS gridded dataset is on the same grid with the Regional Climate Model (horizontal
resolution 22km x 22kmStation Code Station Name Altitude (m a.s.l) Year Range Station Type
1.AT02 Illmitz 117 1995-2004 rural
2.AT04 St. Koloman 851 1995-2004 -
3.AT05 Achenkirch 960 1995-2004 mountaineous
4.AT30 Pillersdorf 315 1995-2004 rural
5.AT32 Sulzberg 1020 1995-2004 -
6.AT33 Stolzalpe 1302 1995-2004 -
7.AT45 Dunkelsteinerwald 320 1995-2004 -
8.AT46 Gaenserndorf 146 1995-2004 -
9.BE01 Offagne 420 1991-2002 -
10.BE32 Eupen 295 1991-2002 -
11.BE35 Vezin 160 1991-2002 -
12.CH02 Payerne 489 1993-2003 rural
13.CH03 Tänikon 539 1993-2003 rural
14.DE02 Langenbrügge 74 1992-2001 forestry
15.DE03 Schauinsland 1205 1992-2001 forestry
16.DE04 Deuselbach 480 1992-2001 rural
17.DE05 Brotjacklriegel 1016 1992-2001 forestry
18.DE07 Neuglobsow 62 1992-2001 forestry
19.DE08 Schmücke 937 1992-2001 forestry
20.DE12 Bassum 52 1992-2001 rural
21.DE26 Ueckermünde 1 1992-2001 rural
22.DE35 Lückendorf 490 1992-2001 rural
23.ES01 Toledo 917 1993-2000 rural
24.ES04 Logrono 370 1993-2000 rural
25.FR08 Donon 775 1998-2005 forestry
26.FR09 Revin 390 1998-2005 forestry
27.FR13 Peyrusse Vieille 236 1998-2005 rural
28.BG02 Eskdalemuir 243 1991-2002 rural
29.BG06 Lough Navar 126 1991-2002 rural
30.BG13 Yarner Wood 119 1991-2002 rural
31.BG14 High Muffles 267 1991-2002 rural
32.BG15 Strathvaich Dam 270 1991-2002 rural
33.BG31 Aston Hill 370 1991-2002 rural
34.BG32 Bottesford 32 1991-2002 rural
35.BG33 Bush 180 1991-2002 forestry
36.BG36 Harwell 137 1991-2002 rural
37.BG37 Ladybower 420 1991-2002 rural
Figure. Locations of the ozone stations (red) and their closest grid points (black) for
38.BG39 Sibton 46 1991-2002 rural temperature used in the analysis. See the correspondence between numbers and names of
39.GR01 Aliartos 110 1996-2005 rural the stations in Table 1. For stations where only black squares are visible the station location
40.IT01 Montelibretti 48 1995-2004 - coincides with the closest grid point of the gridded maximum temperature
41.IT04 Ispra 209 1995-2004 rural
42.NL09 Kollumerwaard 1 1991-2002 -
43.NL10 Vreedepeel 5 1991-2002 -
44.PL02 Jarczew 180 1995-2004 rural Table 1.Stations and the year range used in the analysis. See location of the
45.PL03 Sniezka 1604 1995-2004 - stations in Fig. 1
46.PL04 Leba 2 1995-2004 rural
47.PL05 Diabla Gora 157 1995-2004 rural1st Approach
METHODOLOGY
• Identify the ‘representative stations’ using rotated PCA and correlation analysis between
the daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations and the observed daily maximum
temperature
• Derive threshold temperature for ozone exceedances.
• Construct an empirical-statistical model, based on the probability distribution of daily
maximum 8-h average ozone concentration with daily maximum temperature.
Bins of 1oC above the pre-calculated threshold for temperature and bins of 5 ppb for ozone
concentration, are calculated.
• Evaluate the spatial temperature behavior of RACMO2 vs EOBS for the 1961-1990
• Apply the empirical statistical model with the future modeled temperatures.
exceedance days are days with daily maximum 8-h average >= 60 ppbOZONE EXCEEDANCE SEASON – PCA – ‘REPRESENATIVE STATIONS’
• PCA implemented on the ozone
exceedance season (1 April- 30
September)
X
X • 5 PCs (5 sub regions) explaining
X X ~71% of the variability in the daily
X
X maximum 8-h average ozone
X
X concentrations
PC Sub Variance Mean Mean
X X Number region explained NOx NMVOC Mean
(%) emissions emissions ozone
NO2 (Mg) exceedan
Equivale ce days
nts (Mg) (%)
1 South 37.21 3241 3975 14
east
2 North 12.45 5041 10268 2
west
3 South 11.13 3431 4963 13
west
• meteorology plays a dominant role regarding 4 Central 6.51 3831 3656 8
the stations grouping north
5 North 3.53 2465 1922 8
east
• 2 ‘representative stations’ from each sub
region selection based on communality(red X) Table 2. List of the sub regions identified by PCA, variance
and correlation coefficient between ozone and explained by each principal component, mean NOx, mean
NMVOC and mean percentage ozone exceedance days for the
temperature (black X) stations constituting each sub region.ESTIMATED FUTURE O3 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
FUTURE EXCEEDANCE DAYS
Southeast Subregion
Northwest SubregionESTIMATED FUTURE O3 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
FUTURE EXCEEDANCE DAYS
Southwest Subregion
Centralnorth SubregionESTIMATED FUTURE O3 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
FUTURE EXCEEDANCE DAYS
Northeast Subregion
Table 3. Changes for Temperatures higher than the threshold temperatures.
Stations/Subregion Observed 2021-2050 2021-2050 2071-2100 2071-2010
exccedances exccedances 90th percentile exccedances 90th percentile
(days/year) changes Tmax changes Tmax
(days/year) changes (oC) (days/year) changes (oC)
AT30 / South East ~ 50 1.9 +3.68 +5.2 5.92
IT01 / South East ~ 64 +10.8 +3.06 +24.1 +8.43
GB31/North West ~4 - +6.15 - +7.26
GB36/North West ~9 +5.9 +3.6 +9.4 +7.84
ES04/South West ~31 +7.5 +3.89 +14.7 +4.11
CH03/South west ~45 -4.2 +0.12 + 2.8 +5.53
DE02/Central North ~ 32 -3.8 -0.74 - +0.59
DE04/Central North ~ 39 -8.9 -1.80 -1.6 +3.38
PL04/North East ~ 13 +1.1 +1.06 +2.8 + 2.42
DE07/NorthEast ~ 25 - +0.31 + 4.2 +4.652nd Approach GISS-GEOS CHEM GLOBAL GCM-CTM MODELLING SYSTEM
meteorological
NASA GISS GCM 3 : horizontal
inputs
resolution of 4°x 5°, 23 vertical GEOS-Chem CTM
layers (surface to 0.002 hPa)
A1B emissions (http://www.as.harvard.edu/che
mistry/trop/geos/)
scenario
present anthropogenic emission inventories for 1998,
natural emissions of ozone precursors are computed
Emissions locally within the model
(Wu et al., 2008) present-day GEOS-Chem emission inventories are
future
projected using
spatial growth factors for various categories of
anthropogenic emissions
Simulation scenarios: (1) present-day climate and emissions, (2) 2050 climate and present-day
anthropogenic emissions, (3) 2050 climate and 2050 anthropogenic emissions
Each case was run for 3 years (1999 –2001 or 2049 – 2051) following 1 year of model spin-up
Results are from 3 yr average valuesGISS/GEOS CHEM EVALUATION WITH OBSERVATIONS
EUROPE GRID COVERAGE
Methodology
For each grid point 4x5 (lat,lon)
Ozone: average of all ozone daily maximum
8-h average concentrations from the
stations located at each 4x5 grid box
Temperature: : average of all daily
maximum temperatures (EOBS) from the
1st closest grid point to each ozone station
Selected grid: 131 ozone stations – 83
EOBS grid pointsGISS/GEOS CHEM EVALUATION WITH OBSERVATIONS
Correlation coefficients and bootstrap ci
O3 (obs)- O3(Giss/Geos-chem) Tmax(obs)-Tmax(Giss/Geos-chem)
• High correlations
O3 (obs)- O3(Giss/Geos-chem)
Tmax(obs)-Tmax(Giss/Geos-chem)
• stronger correlation in
temperatureGISS/GEOS CHEM EVALUATION WITH OBSERVATIONS
measured and modelled daily maximum 8-hr measured and modelled daily Tmax
average ozone concentrations
model overestimates in the warm period model mainly underestimates compared to the
observations
Variable MEANO MEANES RMSE MEAN MEAN
BIAS ERROR
O3 37.40 39.92 8.67 2.51 6.66
ppb ppb ppb ppb ppb
Tmax 15.69oC 11.86oC 5.17oC -3.85oC 4.38oCGISS/GEOS CHEM EVALUATION WITH OBSERVATIONS
measured and modelled daily maximum 8-hr measured and modelled daily Tmax
average ozone concentrations after bias correction
T = mean (Tobs) + (std(Tobs)/std(Tmod))*(Tmod -mean(Tmod)
(Leander and Buishand, 2007)
model overestimates in the warm period model mainly underestimates compared to the
observations
Variable MEANO MEANES RMSE MEAN MEAN
BIAS ERROR
O3 37.40 ppb 39.92 ppb 8.67 ppb 2.51 ppb 6.66
ppb
Tmax 15.69oC 11.86oC 5.17oC -3.85oC 4.38oC
T 15.69oC 2.91oC -1oC 2.33oCO3 – T RELATIONSHIP • stronger relation within the model Threshold Tmax=17 oC
FUTURE PROJECTIONS
• similar shape pattern for both
approaches (statistical and
dynamical)
• ozone exceedance days deviate
~ 10 days between the two
approaches
• higher increase of about 1 month
for 2050 climate and emissions
Obs Theoretical GISS/GEOS- GISS/GEOS- GISS/GEOS-
CHEM CHEM CHEM
2000 2050/w 2050/w
2000 2050
emissions emissions
Exceedance 16 ~22.5 (+6.5) 24 31 (+7) 58 (+34)
daysGISS/GEOS CHEM RESULTS
AVERAGE OZONE CONCENTRATIONS (exceedance season)
Present scenario 2050 w/2050 emissions
2050 w/2000 emissions
2050 w/2000 emissions 2050 w/2050 emissions
– present scenario – present scenarioGISS/GEOS CHEM RESULTS
AVERAGE OF OZONE EXCEEDANCE DAYS
Present scenario 2050 w/2000 emissions 2050 w/2050 emissions
2050 w/2000 emissions 2050 w/2050 emissions
– present scenario – present scenarioSUMMARY
1st APPROACH Empirical statistical model based on the O3 – T relation by means of probability
distributions
• Future ozone probability distributions follow the shape pattern of the observed.
• A temperature increase of about 26% in the future could lead to an increase of about 24
extra ozone exceedance days/year at polluted stations.
• Although this relation can been seen as a starting point for how the future atmosphere will
behave it contain a caveat: it assumes constant emissions of ozone precursors
2ndAPPROACH Giss/Geos-Chem global GCM-CTM modelling system
• High correlation coefficients was found between the modelling system and
observations for both O3 and Tmax
• model mainly underestimates Tmax compared to the observations
• model overestimates O3 compared to the observations especially in the warm months
• results from the future scenarios simulations revealed the most profound impact of
climate change will take place in Southern EuropeFUTURE WORK
• Examine GISS meteorology
• update emissions inventories
• simulations with a finer resolution and/or under different future emissions
scenarios
NKUA-NOA Group Poster by Anna Protonotariou
Title: European CO budget : regional sources and its links with synoptic
circulation and long range transportExtra slides
Relationship of ozone exceedance days with daily maximum temperature.
Figure. Probability that the daily maximum 8-h average
ozone will exceed 60 ppb for a given daily maximum
temperature for the stations selected from each sub
region.
Tthresh P(ozone exceedance days) > 4%Evaluation of the Regional Climate Model using gridded temperature
observations
Spatial Evaluation
RACMO2 - EOBS
•small underestimation
on the west
•small overestimation on
the east
Figure Difference between the RCM and the EOBS for the 1961-1990 period.Regional Climate Model Future Simulations
2021-2050 – reference period 2071-2100 – reference period
Figure. Mean differences between the 2021-2050 future simulation (left), the 2071-2100 future simulation (right) and the 1961-1990
period for the Average Annual maximum temperature.
Both periods are warmer compared to the 1961-1990 period with the 2071-2100 period
exhibiting higher daily maximum temperatures than the 2021-2050 period (~2 oC)You can also read
