FIVE FORCES TRANSFORMING TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS PWC CEE TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS TREND BOOK 2019
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Five Forces Transforming
Transport & Logistics
PwC CEE Transport & Logistics
Trend Book 2019
www.pwc.pl
A. Introduction
As the complexity of modern transport and logistics grows, it is increasingly difficult to understand what to focus on,
so we have identified five key forces transforming the T&L segment
Our approach and the 5 major forces transforming Transport & Logistics
Based on our analysis of PESTEL trends and the …we have identified 5 major forces transforming Transport & Logistics,
impact and time-to-entry of relevant solutions…. including urban transport:
Digitalization
Shifts in international trade
Software-driven process changes
Changes in markets’ domestic commerce
Machine-driven process changes
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B. Introduction
These forces are visible in the expectations expressed by T&L CEOs regarding the near future – concerning such factors
as favorable economic growth outlooks, the impact of technology changes, and changes in distribution channels
Selected answers from the PwC CEO Survey 2018 (T&L cut)
Comments
• Globally, T&L CEOs are clear that
disruptions should be anticipated.
85% 78% 68% 65% 60% • PwC conducted 1,239 interviews with
CEOs in 85 countries and 85 of these
were in the transport and logistics
industry.
of the T&L heads of the T&L heads of the T&L heads of the T&L heads of the T&L heads
in our 2018 CEO in our 2018 CEO in our 2018 CEO in our 2018 CEO in our 2018 CEO • Transport and logistics respondents
Survey Survey Survey Survey Survey presented the following profile: 60%
had 1–5 years of tenure, 94% were
male and 5% were female, 36% were
younger than 50.
Are confident about Are concerned about Anticipate that Expect changes in Believe global
their company’s the availability of changes in core distribution economic growth
prospects for digital skills in both technologies of channels to disrupt will improve over the
revenue growth over their workforce and service provision will their business in the next 12 months.
the next 12 months their industry. disrupt their business next five years
(45% responded they in the next five years (the sum of
were ‘very confident’, (the sum of responses ‘disruptive’
40% ‘somewhat responses ‘disruptive’ and ‘very disruptive’).
Find more information
confident’). and ‘very disruptive)’. in Global PwC CEO
Survey T&L cut here
Source: PwC CEO Survey 2018.
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C. Introduction
We expect each of the transformation forces to impact the market successively, due to the trends driving them
The five forces transforming transport and logistics and their key driving trends
Transforming 1. Digitalization 2. Shifts in 3. Software-driven 4. Shifts in markets’ 5. Machine-driven
Forces* international trade process changes domestic commerce process changes
… of operational and … are expected due to: … will be soon driven by: … will create a need for new … will be enabled and
Driving
contractual processes is solutions due to: supported in the longer term
trends already happening, with: • Growth in Asia-Europe • Evolution of base by:
trade technologies, such as • Maturing eCommerce
• Changes in consumer Artificial Intelligence (AI), • Transport machine
behaviors • Free trade agreements Internet of Things (IoT), Big • Optimistic economic growth technology development
Data Analytics (BDA), forecasts
• Talent supply gap • Trade wars and barriers • Fuel price fluctuations
Blockchain/ Distributed • Growth of sharing economy
• Availability of technology • Internationalization of the Ledger Technology (DLT) • Advancements in Electro-
transport businesses • Emergence of global mobility
• Changing data protection • Data Protection Act(s) players and pressure on
and labor regulations • Belt and Road Initiative coming into force effectiveness • Environmental sustainability
• Land infrastructure • Pressure on business focus
• Changing consumer
development (rail & road) effectiveness behaviors • Changing labor regulations
• Ageing Society**
Time
to entry 1 year+ 2 years+ 3 years+ 4 years+ 5 years+
Source: PwC analysis, unescap.org; *Forces were categorized in time based on maturity of solutions evaluated as the most impactful; **Transportation services for seniors; Full PESTEL analysis available in section 6
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D. Introduction
All five forces transforming T&L – digitalization, shifts in international trade, software-driven process changes,
changes in markets’ domestic commerce and machine-driven process changes – will be accompanied by new solutions
The five forces transforming transport and logistics and the accompanying solutions, with an assessment of impact and maturity
Transforming 1. Digitalization 2. Shifts in 3. Software-driven 4. Changes in markets’ 5. Machine-driven
Forces* international trade process changes domestic commerce process changes
Emerging 1.1. Digitalization 2.1. New trade 3.1 Intelligent 4.1 Big business 5.1 Warehousing
solutions route solutions transportation entering eCommerce robotization (including
solutions systems (ITS) drones)
3.2 Robotic Process 4.2 eCommerce 5.2 Electro-mobility
s Automation (RPA) investing in Logistics
3.3 Predictive 4.3 CEP*** solutions 5.3 Warehousing
maintenance and for eCommerce supported
drone supervision by AR, VR****
3.4 Blockchain 4.4 Sharing economy 5.4 High Speed Rail
(DLT**) solutions solutions (HSR)
3.5 Artificial 4.5 Logistics 5.5 Last mile delivery
Intelligence (AI) consolidation optimization
solutions for T&L (incl. drones)
Time
to entry 1 year+ 2 years+ 3 years+ 4 years+ 5 years+
Very high impact Low impact Very high maturity Low maturity
Source: PwC analysis; *Forces were categorized in time based on maturity of solutions evaluated as the most impactful; **DLT = Distributed Ledger Technologies; ***CEP = Courier Express Parcel; ****VR = Virtual Reality, AR = Augmented Reality.
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CONTENTS – Section 1
Emerging solutions: a closer look into the most impactful trends
INTRO – The 5 forces driving changes in T&L
1 Digitalization – trends and solutions
1.1 Adjusting to changes: Digitalization overview
1.2 Digitalization solutions
2 Shifts in international trade – trends and solutions
3 Software-driven core process changes – trends and solutions
4 Changes in markets’ domestic commerce – trends and solutions
5 Machine-driven core process changes – trends and solutions
Additional information – sector definitions, solutions analysis grid, list of future speculated growth
6
drivers
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1.1 Adjusting to changes: Digitalization overview
Digitalization is already transforming all T&L segments and it is expected to be the most impactful trend over the
coming years, reshaping entire businesses
Adjusting to changes: Digitalization overview
Impact on T&L Opportunities for business Solutions Impact on Consumers
Percentage of commercial transportation • Simplified internal processes with wider Digitalization solutions no longer concern • More convenience for consumers and
companies reporting advanced levels of application of digital solutions simple ICT (Information and business clients and more possibilities for
digitization and integration: Communication Technologies) as they are personalization with regards to online
• Increased revenues with extended digital
enabling new business models, transaction ordering, tracking, payments for services
reach to customers
types, marketplaces and services offering
• Extended possibilities for online revenue sources
Horizontal value-chain integration 44%
marketing
They concern all T&L segments.
• Lower business risk due to online
Customer access, sales,
37% payments
channels and marketing • Historically, ICT-focused
• Lower impact of talent supply gaps digitalization concerned:
Past: ICT / ‐ Collaboration, Office Find more on Transport
Vertical value-chain
integration
36% • Lower cost to serve clients Workplace Packages, Communication Digitalization in PwC
‐ Automation of administration “Global Digital IQ® “
• Opportunities to address clients’ needs ‐ ERP Systems survey 2017 here
with completely new services
Overall digitalization 28%
• What is new:
Present: ‐ New business models
Product development Business ‐ New processes
and engineering 25% model / ‐ New transaction types and Find the T&L findings
Company places where they’re created from PwC “Industry 4.0“
‐ Marketplaces 2016 survey here
Digital business
‐ New services / revenue
models, product 21% sources
service portfolio
Source: PwC Analysis, PwC “Global Digital IQ” survey.
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1.2 Digitalization solutions
Digitalization solutions influence business processes and models, and their application is driven by consumer behavior,
the availability of technology and tangible business opportunities
Digitalization – solution definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: digital technologies which change business processes and models to generate value for the business
Key drivers of digitalization T&L companies’ expectations towards digitalization Barriers and ways to overcome them
What value do you expect from your digital technology
Consumers, and particularly Generation C, investments?
are already fully adapted to the digital They will enable us to… 58% Believe it is difficult for
Consumer environment. They naturally expect to be 54% them to attract digital
pull always connected and they are increasingly talent
willing to share their data. of the T&L heads in Find more information in
PwC report “PwC’s 21st
our 2018 CEO Survey CEO Survey T&L Cut” here
Our digitalization framework assumes 3 steps:
Digital technology continues to expand its
influence. The infrastructure backbone of I.
Understanding client and end-user needs as well as
Technology the digital world now brings affordable industry changes and applying lean startup and growth
16%
push broadband to billions of consumers. hacking approaches to prototype growth solutions
11%
II. Redesigning existing and developing new services,
products and business models, including mobile solutions,
The economic benefits to be captured business architecture, digitized functions, managerial,
through digitization are real. A wave of Grow revenue Increase profits Create better transactional, back-end and core T&L processes
capital has poured into the new digitalization customer
III. Developing base digital capabilities in the areas of
Economic technologies and companies, and the public experiences
innovation management, data, system interactions, digital
benefits markets reward early innovators with Percentage of respondents who marked the reply talent, digital culture, partner networks, digital tools and
unprecedented valuations. in 2017 Digital IQ Survey (T&L industry) resources
Source: PwC Analysis, PwC Strategy&, PwC Global Digital IQ® Surveys.
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CONTENTS – Section 2
Emerging solutions: a closer look into the most impactful trends
INTRO – The 5 forces driving changes in T&L
1 Digitalization – trends and solutions
2 Shifts in international trade – trends and solutions
2.1 Adjusting to changes: Overview of shifts in international trade
2.2 New trade route solutions
3 Software-driven core process changes – trends and solutions
4 Changes in markets’ domestic commerce – trends and solutions
5 Machine-driven core process changes – trends and solutions
Additional information – sector definitions, solutions analysis grid, list of future speculated growth
6
drivers
PwC 92.1 Adjusting to changes: Overview of shifts in international trade
Shifts in international trade are already visible in growing numbers of land transports from China to the EU
and we expect them to intensify in the mid-term
Adjusting to changes: overview of shifts in international trade
Impact on T&L Opportunities for business Solutions Impact on Consumers
• The transport corridors between China • Lower costs of trade and investments New trade route solutions will revolutionize • Cost reduction meaning larger
and the EU with the Belt and Road along emerging trade routes, especially international trade between Europe and accessibility to products and goods from
Initiative as well as other connections of associated with the Belt and Road China, in such areas as: foreign markets
emerging economies are expected to Initiative corridors from China to Europe
‐ Investments in transportation • Shorter transit times and, consequently,
grow rapidly over the next few years.
• Modernization of railways, highways, infrastructure, including intermodal shorter delivery time
• Such developments will lead to lower telecommunication and hubs located terminals, customs processing
• An increasing inflows of goods from
costs of transport and will enable the along main transport corridors centers
emerging economies increasing
creation of new services.
• Increasing accessibility to new business ‐ New, cross-border services offered competition and choice across different
areas, which were not popular before by service providers product categories
because of high logistics costs
The T&L segments that will be impacted to
3673 • New trade agreements altering the
profitability of trade along specific routes
the largest extent are:
vs 17 • Emerging market trade flows enabling
services to be offered on a larger scale
• Adjustment of supply chain strategy to
were the numbers of trains from benefit from decreasing costs and
China to EU in years 2017 vs 2011 delivery time
Legend Posts, Courier, Supply Transport & Warehousing Sea & Inland Road Freight
eCommerce Railways
– applicable segments Express Parcel Chain Management infrastructure Transport transport forwarding
Source: PwC Analysis, Reuters.
PwC 102.2 New trade route solutions
With growing China-EU volumes, new investments and the opportunities to quickly enlarge land transport fleet, new trade
route solutions such as services and infrastructure development can be expected in approximately two years’ time
New trade route solutions - definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: developments of new infrastructure, operations and services along newly opening trade routes
Planned investments in Europe, related to Belt and Road Initiative China-EU trade value in 2007-2017 (billion USD)
2 Import
A1 CAGR:
Riga 573 Export
2
+6%
2 Yekaterinburg
A3
Moscow
2 A2 306 375
2 Minsk
Warsaw
Berlin
Lodz
1 234
Malaszewicze
B1 198
1
Duisburg
Aktobe 72
Prague
2
Kandyagash 2007 2017
Bratislava
Budapest
1
Bucharest
Volume of goods transported by modes of transport in 2016,
Belgrade
3
Sofia
Aktau (million tones)
Tbilisi
Istanbul from China to the European Union from the European Union to China
Thessaloniki
3 Baku B2 54.0
Ankara
Pireus
47.7
Teheran
Existing Corridors New Corridors Investments 1.2
0.6 0.7 0.4
A1 direct China-Russia A3 through Russia-Mongolia-China 1 Terminals
A2 through Russia-Kazakhstan-China B Southern (multiple routes) 2 Connection
3 New Logistics Centres Maritime Air Rail Maritime Air Rail
Source: PwC Analysis, European Commission, Reuters.
PwC 11CONTENTS – Section 3
Emerging solutions: a closer look into the most impactful trends
INTRO – The 5 forces driving changes in T&L
1 Digitalization – trends and solutions
2 Shifts in international trade – trends and solutions
3 Software-driven core process changes - trends and solutions
3.1 Adjusting to changes: Overview of software-driven core process changes
3.2 Intelligent Transportation Systems
3.3 Robotic Process Automation
3.4 Predictive maintenance and drone supervision
3.5 Blockchain (DLT) solutions
3.6 Artificial Intelligence solutions
4 Changes in markets’ domestic commerce – trends and solutions
5 Machine-driven core process changes – trends and solutions
Additional information – sector definitions, solutions analysis grid, list of future speculated growth
6
drivers
PwC 123.1 Adjusting to changes: Overview of software-driven core process changes
Software-driven processes solutions are expected to grow dynamically over the next few years, generating even larger
benefits for the business, but they still need to find their way into the mainstream
Adjusting to changes: Overview of software-driven core process changes
Impact on T&L Opportunities for business Solutions Impact on Consumers
• Global Intelligent Transport System (ITS) • Implementation of freight management • The following emerging solutions were • Smoother transportation services with
market in roadways is expected to reach systems, ITS analyzed in relation to software-driven improved safety
over 72.3 billion USD by 2022. core process changes
• Avoidance of unnecessary maintenance • Larger reliability of transport systems
• Global predictive maintenance market is costs and mistakes in simple, repetitive
Intelligent Transportation • AI solutions such as autonomous trucking
expected to grow by 37% p.a. in ’18-’22 processes
Systems and delivery are already being developed
reaching over 10.9 billion USD in 2022.
• Improved control over processes and by Uber Technologies Inc., which is
• Global Robotic Process Automation human behaviors leading to improved expected to improve the efficiency and
Robotic Process
Market is expected to reach more than quality of services reduce the delivery time of commercial
Automation
1.2 billion USD by 2021. shipments, since there would be no need
• Software automation due to development
for rest periods.
of AI and RPA solutions Predictive Maintenance
• RPA solving talent supply gaps and make and Drone Supervision
>35% tracking, calculation or claims
Blockchain (DLT)
management faster and better in quality, All segments
contributing to higher consumer Solutions
are the annual growth rate forecasts satisfaction
for Global RPA and Predictive • Predictive Maintenance stabilizing All segments AI solutions for T&L
Maintenance Markets in 2016-2021 delivery times and ensuring that the fleet
is always available
Legend Posts, Courier, Supply Transport & Warehousing Sea & Inland Road Freight
eCommerce Railways
– applicable segments Express Parcel Chain Management infrastructure Transport transport forwarding
Source: PwC Analysis, BIS Research, Statista, HfS Research.
PwC 133.2 Intelligent transportation systems
Intelligent Transportation Systems used to optimize and improve efficiency of transportation networks are already
applied, whereas we expect their more dynamic growth beyond 2 years’ time as standards develop in the market
Intelligent transportation systems – solution definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: systems and technologies integrating different elements of transport infrastructure, vehicles and software to improve safety and efficiency of transportation networks
Examples of cities using Intelligent Transportation Systems Solution Description
Traffic management Systems that make transportation networks more
systems efficient, share real-time information, synchronize
traffic lights and assign street space dynamically
Barcelona Copenhagen Montreal
Solutions which automatically collect tolls from
73%
Toll collection
systems vehicles moving through certain roads, highways or
tunnels, resulting in time savings
of executives in
Freight Already applied solutions with growing popularity, our 2017 Digital
management usually optimizing freight and gathering information IQ Survey
Barcelona is Copenhagen is Montreal is
to control efficiency and conditions of fleet
implementing ITS implementing many ITS implementing ITS
solutions such as smart solutions: traffic solutions for traffic light
Using big data to analyze movement and traffic to
parking and traffic management systems, synchronization and Data collection
dynamically react to changing situation when
systems to monitor collecting data in order collection of (V2I, V2V, GPS)
something unexpected happens on the road Said they are already
congestion. It has also to optimize previously incomplete or
invested in clean transportation network missing mobility data. making investments in the
transport, with hybrid and promote Solutions using real-time data to inform drivers where Internet of Things and 63%
Parking guidance
buses and a smart ”green driving”. they will be able to easily leave their cars, resulting in
are planning further
cycling initiative. more convenient and smoother transport
investments in the next 3
Public
years
Public transport systems gathering and analyzing
transportation data, adjusting operations to the needs of citizens,
enabling greater efficiency
Source: PwC Analysis.
PwC 143.3 Robotic Process Automation
Robotic Process Automation is expected to have moderate influence and its large-scale spread in T&L segments such as
posts, courier, express parcel, eCommerce, forwarding and supply chain management can be expected in the mid-term
Robotic Process Automation – solution definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: software technologies used to replace repetitive tasks and manual labor with automated algorithms / bots
Key areas requiring RPA support Examples of companies supporting implementation of RPA
blueprism PEGA Daythree Kofax
RPA might be used as an automation and support tool for companies
operating in various T&L sub-segments.
UiPath Kryon Systems Intellicog Softomotive
Soft robots can support a variety of business activities such as Examples of companies already using RPA
Transactions, HR services, IT, Finance & Accounting and document
processing.
Walmart Vanguard Pitt Ohio Global Business
Travel
Find more information
So far banking companies have shown the greatest interest in this in “Organize your future
technology, whereas T&L companies are already experimenting with their Crete Carrier
Davies Turner Dell with robotic process
application and / or using it to accelerate their businesses. Corp. automation” here
Source: PwC Analysis, HfS Research.
PwC 153.4 Predictive maintenance and drone supervision
Predictive maintenance solutions are used to foresee upcoming events, save costs and better respond to needs;
drone supervision is also applied with similar objective, facilitating the supervision of vehicles and infrastructure
Predictive maintenance and drone supervision – solution definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: smart technologies using software, data and monitoring tools (as well as drones and sensors) to prevent equipment / asset failures and maximize asset performance
Benefits of predictive maintenance Levels of predictive maintenance
Drones are becoming a more popular
Predictive maintenance helps reduce
tool for predictive maintenance in
downtime and allows companies to use their
Cost reduction equipment without breaks. Moreover, regular different areas due to the high time- and
Past Now Near cost-effectiveness as well as accuracy
periodic maintenance is a waste of money if the
assets are in good condition. Future that they provide.
Types of
Predictive maintenance helps companies to maintenance
Improvement in quality stabilize delivery times and to ensure that all
of services of the companies’ fleet is available and ready
to work at full capacity. Corrective Preventive Proactive Predictive
An asset is Periodic Frequent Asset issues Find more about Drone
Reacting to problems with equipment before Powered Solutions here
Positive impact on they occur improves safety and comfort of staff, fixed when it check to maintenance are spotted
employees resulting in better efficiency and morale, since is damaged verify assets’ aimed at and solved
accidents become rare. condition and improving before they
prevent assets’ occur,
failures, may performance, requires
Better maintenance has a positive impact on include may include applying Find more about
environment and waste management. Sub- visual checks ongoing technology Predictive Maintenance
CSR and 4.0 in our 2017 Market
optimal operation is spotted, allowing machines and condition and data to
environmental issues Survey here
to be used for longer times, resulting in savings instrument monitoring predict
in raw materials and natural resources.
inspections performance
Source: PwC Analysis.
PwC 163.5 Blockchain (DLT) solutions for T&L
Blockchain, and in the wider sense all distributed ledger technologies, are expected to have a moderate influence on all
T&L segments, with effects visible in 3 years’ time at minimum
Blockchain (DLT) solutions for T&L – definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: technologies enabling storage of uniform data spread across multiple sites via a peer-to-peer network by using consensus algorithms
Advantages of DLT Main types of DLT Comments
• Overall, companies from the
Security – End-to-end Blockchain Transportation and Logistics
product identification Transaction validation based on calculation of all sector tend to value
and auditability while transactions in the current block – done by Blockchain-based solutions
maintaining privacy with “miners”; results in fees for the possibility to create
hash keys internally robust, transparent
Block Block Block Block Block Block and secure systems that
Efficiency – Reduced allow them to deliver higher
need for document service levels at a lower cost.
processing (thanks to Directed Acyclic Graph Main use cases for
automation) Transaction validated by verifying preceding • Postal and CEP operators are
DLT solutions
transfers – done by the transaction maker; no fees expected to profit greatly from
in Transportation
Transparency – Easier the use of DLT due to high
& Logistics
and reliable tracking dispersion of their activities.
and source checking • The technology is already
being implemented in large
Logistics companies, such as
Reliability – Once Maersk, which is cooperating
a piece of information is with IBM on developing its
put into the network it Authorized party validation
Blockchain platform.
cannot be easily (only permissioned ledger) – a few selected
changed parties validate all transactions; results in fees
Source: UK’s Government Office for Science, “Trust in Trade” report by IBM, ECB "In Focus” Issue 1 2016.
PwC 173.6 Artificial Intelligence solutions
Artificial intelligence solutions can reshape the way operations, traffic and networks are managed, but the current
maturity of such solutions suggests that they will need more than three years to find their way into the mainstream
Artificial Intelligence (AI) solutions – definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: computer systems with capabilities of sensing the environment, learning and taking action in response to what they are sensing and their objectives
Types of AI AI’s potential* to impact on consumption in industries (PwC rating)
Human in the loop No human in the loop Sector Potential AI Impact
54% Said they are
already making
Assisted Intelligence Automation Healthcare 3.7
investments in
Hardwired / specific
AI systems that assist Automation of manual AI and 63% are
Automotive 3.7 of the
planning further
systems
humans in making decisions cognitive tasks that are executives in
or taking actions. either routine or non-routine. investments in
our 2017
Hard-wired systems that do This does not involve new Financial Services 3.3 the next 3 years
Digital IQ
not learn from their ways of doing things – it Survey
interactions. automates existing tasks. Transportation and Logistics 3.2
Technology, Communications and Entertainment 3.1
Augmented Intelligence Autonomous Intelligence
Adaptive systems
AI systems that augment AI systems that can adapt to Retail 3.0
human decision making and different situations and can Find more information
continuously learn from their act autonomously without about AI solutions in the
Energy 2.2 PwC report “What’s the real
interactions with humans human assistance. value of IA for your
and the environment. business” here
Scores based on PwC’s AI impact index evaluation. Potential scores range from
1-5, with 5 being the highest potential impact due to AI, and 1 being the lowest
Source: PwC Analysis. *Assessment of economic potential for AI between now and 2030
PwC 18CONTENTS – Section 4
Emerging solutions: a closer look into the most impactful trends
INTRO – The 5 forces driving changes in T&L
1 Digitalization – trends and solutions
2 Shifts in international trade – trends and solutions
3 Software-driven core process changes – trends and solutions
4 Changes in markets’ domestic commerce – trends and solutions
4.1 Adjusting to changes: Overview of changes in markets’ domestic commerce
4.2 Big business entering eCommerce
4.3 eCommerce investing in Logistics
4.4 CEP solutions for eCommerce
4.5 Sharing economy solutions
4.6 Logistics consolidation
5 Machine-driven core process changes – trends and solutions
Additional information – sector definitions, solutions analysis grid, list of future speculated growth
6
PwC
drivers 194.1 Adjusting to changes: Overview of changes in markets’ domestic commerce
eCommerce growing across regions, coupled with increasing levels of optimization in T&L, are highly likely to create a
push for sharing economy and value chain integrations between T&L companies, eCommerce and producers
Adjusting to changes: Overview of changes in markets’ domestic commerce
Impact on T&L Opportunities for business Solutions Impact on Consumers
For T&L businesses: We have identified the following solutions • More affordable and innovative
Plan to create a that will be developed in reaction to services, enabling more convenience
new strategic • Growing revenues through developing
55% new services and extending existing changes in markets’ domestic commerce: thanks to the spread of online shopping
alliance or joint
venture, services to support eCommerce, • Big business entering • New possibilities to share resources for
while 38% plan new seniors transport and other niche eCommerce everyday use with increasing popularity
of the T&L markets of sharing economy
M&A and 32% plan
heads in our • Increasing network efficiencies with • eCommerce investing in
to collaborate with
2018 CEO cooperation and M&A Logistics
entrepreneurs and
Survey
startups • Reducing costs with resource sharing • CEP solutions for
eCommerce
For brand owners / producers:
eCommerce share in total retail sales • Sharing economy
• Growing sales in eCommerce through solutions
(global forecast 2020, %)
own online channels
17.5 All segments• Logistics consolidation
7.4
2015 2021F
Legend Posts, Courier, Supply Transport & Warehousing Sea & Inland Road Freight
eCommerce Railways
– applicable segments Express Parcel Chain Management infrastructure Transport transport forwarding
Source: PwC analysis, Statista.
PwC 204.2 Big business entering eCommerce
Big companies and brand owners start looking towards opportunities to offer their products online, which may yet
have high impact on eCommerce as such initiatives gain momentum over the next four years
Big business entering eCommerce – solution definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: platforms, campaigns and contract setups enabling big brands to sell their products to consumers online, either directly or through a selected partner
Different product categories progressing in online penetration phases Reasons which make eCommerce attractive to Brand Owners
Phase Phase I: Incubation Phase II: Growth Phase III: Slowdown Phase IV: Saturation
Description • Low or medium level of • Online stores are gradually becoming industry
• Significant increase in • A decrease in growth rate • Very low level of growth
growth growth rate below the level achieved in
standard for brick and mortar companies
• Maturity of online channels
• Occurrence of exceptional Phase II Market • Market entry barriers are falling due to talent
periods is possible factors availability. Investing in online marketing and SEO
allows companies to raise their share in the
Grocery products are
eCommerce market quickly
still at the beginning of
the growth stage, in Travelling
Books
terms of both online
(ebooks)
Digital share (%)
purchasing and online
researching
• Big companies are already gathering knowledge
Electronics
based on first experiences in eCommerce
• Retail companies are using their physical stores as
Household equipment Company click-and-collect points to make delivery smooth
Health and Fashion factors and drive the cost down
Groceries beauty Furniture and Decoration
• Entering eCommerce requires the right
competencies, but big businesses have the ability
Time to fund this development when needed
Source: PwC analysis.
PwC 214.3 eCommerce investing in Logistics
eCommerce businesses are expected to start investing in Logistics in the longer term, seeking possibilities to close
value chains, and such trend is already visible in the activities of eCommerce giants
eCommerce investing in Logistics – solution definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: logistics startups and acquisitions done by eCommerce companies to integrate elements of the digital sales value chain
Revenue of internet retailing in Europe (USD bn) Examples of eCommerce companies investing in Logistics
CAGR:
+10%
255 290 Amazon Otto Group ASOS
214 244 234
179
• Developing • By 2020 the • Expected CAPEX
delivery service Hermes Group for the full year
Shipping with planning to invest to be 297-323
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Amazon up to 580 million million USD
• Investing 1.5 USD in building • ASOS investing in
Revenue of CEP market by region (EUR bn) Demand for logistics floor space generated by billion USD in air and expanding upgrade of its 200
non-traditional sales, omnichannel sales cargo hub high technology localized websites,
CAGR: (for EU-7) (million sq.m.) • Building logistics centers, is incorporating
+8% CAGR: warehouses and goods warehouses more Artificial
420 and ParcelShop Intelligence into
+10% fulfilment centers
315 73 across various network services like its
200
200 135 46 geographies • Investment of 116 recommendations
70 105 million USD in engine and visual
60 90 expanding the search
60 75 90
10 15 25 otto.de platform, • Investments in
2015 2020F expanding new warehouses
2015 2020 2025 eCommerce in Atlanta, United
States
Asia-Pacific* North America Europe Rest of the world
Source: PwC analysis, Euromonitor, Statista, Reuters; *Asia-Pacific includes India, China, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Australia.
PwC 224.4 CEP solutions for eCommerce
CEP companies are being pushed to design tailor-made solutions for eCommerce and we expect such solutions to have
medium impact on CEP companies over the longer term, due to the shift to Omnichannel sales
CEP solutions for eCommerce – definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: varied CEP services tailored by carriers to the needs of eCommerce businesses
Factors taken into consideration when choosing an e-retailer Example CEP solutions for eCommerce
• Dynamic parcel redirections,
7% Number of delivery options offered
delivery form changes 64%
8% Ability to pick up at a location that is convenient to me
• Integrated shipping of purchases
41%
Factors related 11% Return policy Existing from different shops of the T&L
to logistics service • Automated/pre-readied returns heads in our
extensions documentation 2018 CEO
15% Delivery speed
• Automated delivery / repeated Survey
deliveries
16% Retailer reputation
• Ship from shop/ship to shop
59% 15% Product selection Say that changes in
• Customer service data / CRM
“traditional” customer
integration
factors behaviours in the
11% Consumer / peer reviews
• Additional services such as
New Services next five years will
consumer loans, ePayments, cause serious
17% Detailed product information and photos Transactional security, Marketing disruption to their
automation / lead generation and businesses
even corporate loan scoring
Source: PwC analysis, 2014 UPS Pulse of the Online Shopper.
PwC 234.5 Sharing economy solutions
As a substitute for rental economy, sharing economy is finding applications in supply chain management, road
transport and freight forwarding, but it has yet to find a way of functioning in the mass market
Sharing economy solutions – definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: services where free capacities are shared between owners and recipients, leading to their improved utilization
Examples of sharing economy applications $15 bn
Sharing economy
Car sharing
Travel from
Free seats 2013 Crowdfunding and P2P lending Car sharing
point A to B $240 bn
Sharing music and movies Online employee
management
Needed Accommodation P2P
Wholesale network access Existing
additional
courier
last mile
network
capacity
$335 bn Rental economy Car rental
Cloud warehousing
Need for Unused
short-term warehouse Rental of equipment DVD rental
cargo storage space
2025 B&B and hotels
More information is available
Irregular Transport capacity sharing Borrowing books in the PwC report “The
stock Unused sharing economy. Consumer
movement cargo space Intelligence Series”
$335 bn
need
Source: PwC analysis.
PwC 244.6 Logistics consolidation
The emergence of global players in eCommerce is likely to encourage unprecedented M&A activity, which will
accelerate in T&L in three to five years
Logistics consolidation – solution definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: consolidation of businesses and services in order to improve network efficiency and profitability levels inside or across sub-segments
Share of sectors in T&L market in terms of deal value (2017) Global T&L deals count in years 2013-2017 T&L M&A activity – key statistics in H1 2018
Other
12% $34B $20.5B
Passenger Air
4% Is the share of Is the total value Is the value of
283 technology of transactions the largest T&L
Shipping 14% +9%
driven with European transaction
17% acquisitions participants
239 237
229
202
26% Passenger
Ground
More information is available
35% in the PwC Report “M&A in
4% the transport and logistics
Logistics/ Trucking industry”
Rail
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: PwC analysis.
PwC 25CONTENTS – Section 5
Emerging solutions: a closer look into the most impactful trends
INTRO – The 5 forces driving changes in T&L
1 Digitalization – trends and solutions
2 Shifts in international trade – trends and solutions
3 Software-driven core process changes - trends and solutions
4 Changes in markets’ domestic commerce – trends and solutions
5 Machine-driven core process changes – trends and solutions
5.1 Adjusting to changes: Overview of machine-driven core process changes
5.2 Warehousing robotization
5.3 Electro-mobility
5.4 Warehousing supported by AR&VR
5.5 High Speed Rail
5.6 Last mile delivery optimization
Additional information – sector definitions, solutions analysis grid, list of future speculated growth
6
drivers
PwC 265.1 Adjusting to changes: Overview of machine-driven core process changes
Among other benefits, machine-driven core process changes can increase the efficiency of deliveries and warehousing;
however, they require investment in new technologies, thoughtful implementation and legal changes
Adjusting to changes: Overview of machine-driven core process changes overview
Impact on T&L Opportunities for business Solutions Impact on Consumers
• Improving efficiency of warehousing We have identified the following solutions in • To consumers and employees, machine-
36% using new transport technologies the area of machine-driven core processes: driven process changes will mean
interacting less with people and more
• Solving the talent supply gap problem in
the T&L sector by automating core with machines in the future, but
operations Warehousing robotization ultimately, will also result in a greater
is the growth in numbers of electric
(including drones) availability of flexible services.
cars worldwide forecasted annually • Further Last Mile Robotization leading to
increased reliability, speed and efficiency • Overall costs of use may be one of the
between 2018 and 2030 (CAGR) Electro-mobility main factors to make consumers move
• Further advancements in transport
from traditional engines to electric ones
technologies, from high speed rails Warehousing supported and in the long term, such solutions may
12.6% offering higher speeds, to the
development of electro-mobility
by AR &VR reduce the impact of using fossil fuels
from the cost and environmental
supported by regulators High Speed Rail perspectives.
was the growth rate in the number of Last mile delivery
industrial robots shipped in Asia, optimization
Europe and North America between
2011 and 2016 (CAGR)
Legend Posts, Courier, Supply Transport & Warehousing Sea & Inland Road Freight
eCommerce Railways
– applicable segments Express Parcel Chain Management infrastructure Transport transport forwarding
Source: : PwC analysis, International Energy Agency, Robotic Industries Association.
PwC 275.2 Warehousing robotization
Robotization is expected to improve logistics processes in supply chain management, warehousing and transport
infrastructure in the long term
Warehousing robotization – solution definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: technologies using autonomous machines and / or cooperation between robots and staff to improve efficiency of logistics services
Examples of warehousing robotization application in respective logistics processes CEOs’ views on warehousing Old approach to robotization
robotization
Old face of automation – all simple
1 2 3 4 5 6 tasks are delegated to robots that
Product Sorting Intra- Picking Cargo Delivery replace workforce
quality check warehouse loading and
transport unloading 31% Are planning to
make substantial
investments in New approach to robotization
of the Business robotics within
Estimated worldwide annual shipments of industrial robots by regions (thousands) and Technology three years
executives in Robots work to support people
191 our 2017 Digital instead of replacing workforce
IQ Survey
Are planning cost
reductions, and
the same US venture capital investment in
89 78% percentage say robotics technology start-ups
56 they make
44 41 decisions on the
26 of the T&L automation of
heads in our tasks and jobs
2018 CEO primarily based on 2010 2013
2011 2016 Survey how best to deliver 30 172
their corporate million USD million USD
Asia/Australia Europe Americas purpose
Source: PwC analysis, “Mobile Robots – 2018“ report by Interact Analysis, International Federation of Robotics; PwC / NVCA; MoneyTree Report based on data from Thomson Reuters.
PwC 285.3 Electro-mobility solutions
Electro-mobility is expected to have a moderate impact on transport & warehousing infrastructure as well as on road
transport in the long term, as it still needs innovation to gain the cost advantage
Electro-mobility solutions – definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: all types of vehicles utilizing any type of electric motor propulsion
Reasons for implementing electro-mobility
Total cost of ownership over 3.5 years EU Transport GHG emissions Example of electro-mobility implementation
Overall costs of use of electric-powered vehicles will fall in the long Environmental hazards resulting from excessive burning of fossil Palma de Mallorca has successfully reduced its dependency on
run compared to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) fuels lead to emission restrictions penalizing ICE-based transport. petrol imports, noise pollution and carbon footprint through
vehicles. incentives for electro-mobility such as tax reliefs, parking privileges
and public infrastructure investment in charging points.
9000 140%
7900
8000 120%
6800 41%
7000
5800 6000 5800 6000 100%
6000
80%
5000
of the T&L heads in
4000 60% our 2018 CEO Survey
3000 40% P
2000 Are concerned about
20% climate change and
1000
environmental damage
0%
0 in the context of their
ICE* PHEV* BEV* 1990 2007 (peak) current 2030 2050
respective businesses’
2015 2030 estimate Historical data EU target Reference level (1990 emissions) growth prospects
Source: PwC Analysis, European Environment Agency, International Energy Agency, CIVITAS DYN@MO project; *ICE = Internal Combustion Engine; PHEV = Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles; BEV = Battery Electric Vehicles
PwC 295.4 Processes augmented by AR&VR
Augmented Reality and Mixed Reality devices offer effectiveness improvements in supply chain management which
may gain wider market use in the shorter term with moderate impact
Processes augmented by AR & VR – solution definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: visual and/or interactive technologies in the areas of AR, VR and MR applied to improve effectiveness in business processes
Global AR smart glasses Global shipments of AR
Augmented reality Virtual reality Mixed reality shipments in 2017 by sector smart glasses (million USD)
Technology that layers digital Offers complete visual separation A combination of the two, giving 4 400
information over real-world objects from the real world and immersion users the possibility to
acting as a direct port to data into the virtual reality with simultaneously interact with
Definition Other
stored in company’s computer interactive digital 3-dimensional holographic and real-world objects
system. objects. that influence each other in real-
76%
time.
• Loading and unloading • Complex structure/layout • Remote repairs and
• Order picking visualization maintenance
T&L • Intra-warehouse transporting • Training aid • Portable control panel
use cases 24%
• Security, information handling, • Workflow simulation • Off-site workstation (PC
information display replacement) Logistics
53
What does
it look like
2017 2022
Source: PwC Analysis, “augmented Reality in Warehousing and Logistics” report by ABI Research.
PwC 305.5 High Speed Rail
High Speed Rail infrastructure is already being developed, but given the pace we expect it to have moderate impact on
T&L in the short term
High Speed Rail – solution definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: passenger rail transport operating at high speeds. EU definition: 200 km/h (120 mph) for upgraded tracks and 250 km/h (160 mph) or faster for new tracks.
Key numbers related to HSR development High Speed Rail network in the World
50 000
1964 1st October world’s first high speed train service from Tokyo to Osaka
Length of HSR network (kilometer)
45 000
29,792 km of high speed lines in the world (1 April 2015) 40 000
35 000
3,603 high speed train sets in operation (April 2015)
30 000
25 000
575 km/h world speed record (France 2007)
20 000
350 km/h maximum speed in revenue operation (China) 15 000
10 000
1,600 million passengers per year carried by High Speed Rail in the world (2015)
5 000
• 800 million passengers per year in China
0
• 355 million passengers per year in Japan 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
• 130 million passengers per year in France
The significant increase in the length of High Speed Railway lines in Asia is mainly
• 315 million passengers per year in the rest of the world
related to the development of high-speed railway lines in China
80% modal split obtained by High Speed Rail in relations to air transport when travel Europe Asia Rest of the world
time by train is less than 2.5 hours
Source: High-speed Europe, Guinness World Record, indiatimes.com.
PwC 315.6 Last mile delivery optimization
Last mile delivery optimizations are expected to have moderate impact on T&L industry over the next five years, with
the main focus on such solutions from the postal and CEP (courier, express, parcel) segment
Last mile delivery optimization – solution definition and overview of relevant information
Solution: technologies and process innovations focusing on increasing the speed, convenience and cost effectiveness of deliveries
Share of delivery costs by part of shipping Biggest challenges with the last mile Top two future last mile developments planned Example of a company using Drone
process reported by global T&L executives: by global T&L executives: programs for last mile optimization
Last Mile
4%
Sorting Overall cost 28% JD.com
Line haul
37% Collection 41% 35%
53% Adapting to customer demands 26%
Drop Drop-off
shipping lockers
6%
Delivery efficiency 20%
Warehouse
Although some business leaders are planning to JD.com, the second biggest Chinese
develop robot deliveries, in-car deliveries most eCommerce company, has already
Local
delivery
are currently focusing on drop-shipping and operated drone programs in 4 regions in
Consistency 8% locker solutions, followed by in-house deliveries China. The JD drones can transport and
hub
(34%) and crowd-sourced deliveries (32%). deliver packages weighing between 5 to
Final
customer 15 kilos and cover distances as far as
Last 50 kilometers.
Mile Other 18%
Sources: PwC analysis, “The Last Mile Retail Study 2018” by Localz/EFT.
PwC 32CONTENTS – Section 6
Emerging solutions: a closer look into the most impactful trends
INTRO – The 5 forces driving changes in T&L
1 Digitalization – a deeper look into the trend and its solution
2 Shifts in international trade – a deeper look into the trend and its solution
3 Software-driven core process changes – a deeper look into the trend and its solutions
4 Changes in markets’ domestic commerce – a deeper look into the trend and its solutions
5 Machine-driven core process changes – a deeper look into the trend and its solutions
Additional information – sector definitions, solutions analysis grid, list of future speculated growth
6
drivers
6.1 Additional information – definitions
6.2 Additional information – complete solutions development grid and PESTEL analysis
6.3 Additional information – evaluation of least mature solutions
6.4 List of abbreviations
6.5 Authors
PwC 336.1 Additional information – definitions
For the purpose of detailed analysis of solutions the T&L industry has been divided into 8 sub-segments covering
passenger and cargo transport*
T&L industry sub-segments included in trends analysis
Sub-segment Description – this segment is defined as companies dealing with… Timespan & regional definitions
• This report assumes a 5-year timeframe as the
Postal services including collection, distribution, sorting and delivery of letters and precision of prognoses beyond that point becomes
Posts, Courier Express Parcel
parcels as well as supporting (e.g. fulfilment) services very low (for the sake of accuracy and applicability
of the information contained herein).
Internet sales delivered through an online buying experience and supplying • Geographically, this report is focused on the region
eCommerce
products via physical distribution networks of Central and Eastern Europe. Therefore some of the
information presented in it may not be fully relevant
Transport & Warehouse Ownership, management and maintenance of transport infrastructure (roads, hubs, or suitable to other markets and regions.
Infrastructure gateways) and warehouse spaces, combined with transportation routes
• Aviation solutions and drones as a separate transport
mode were not included in this report, as recent PwC
Railway transport including all elements of the value chain, from rail roads & publications on aviation cover them in greater detail –
Railways
infrastructure, through rolling stock, to commercial activities please refer to reports linked below. However, drones
serving as solutions for other T&L sub-segments
Maritime transport, inland navigation transport, were included.
Sea & Inland Navigation Transport
management and maintenance of ports
Road Transport Road transport conducted mostly by cars and trucks PwC Drone Powered Solutions webpage
All kinds of operational activities related to maintaining, managing and processing
Supply Chain Management Communications Review / July 2017 Drones report
stocks of goods
Forwarding, consolidation of orders, coordinating the process of service buyers and
Freight Forwarding 2017 Commercial Aviation Trends report
shippers
*Aviation and drones were excluded as separate transport segments since they are analyzed in specialized PwC reports – please refer to the links provided above.
PwC 346.2 Additional information – complete solutions development grid and PESTEL
From geopolitical changes, through the ever-present shift to digital economy and the internationalization of business,
to growing consumer expectations and talent gaps as well as accelerating evolution of underlying technologies, we see
that the identified PESTEL trends enable and urge the emergence of new solutions
T&L industry sub-segments included in trends analysis
Political Economic Social Technological Environmental Legal
1. Free trade agreements: 5. Optimistic economic growth 11.Changes in consumer 15.Evolution of base tech 17.Environmental sustainability 20.Data protection regulations may
• Trade agreements between forecasts, putting pressure on behaviors: enabling innovative solutions focus and the tightening of create obstacles for
the European Union and effectiveness, fueling • Anticipation of reliability and (boosted by cost pressure): emissions standards will push implementation of new
countries like Japan, Mexico, development of T&L, as demand faster delivery times will • Artificial Intelligence optimizing logistics towards more eco- technologies and collaboration
and Vietnam will increase the for transport services is linked to create new challenges for supply chains’ effectiveness. friendly and safe solutions between industry players.
the economic cycle. • Big Data Analytics enabling (“green logistics”).
volume of trade. CEP operators. 21.Barriers to trade (e.g. in the
data-driven decision-making.
• Development of CETA will 6. Further growth of eCommerce • Consumer preferences shifting • Digitalization of processes, 18.Climate change is expected to form of consumer protection
have positive impact on penetration with growing share of for buying online with home touchpoints and models continue shifting the pattern of laws, tariffs) can continue to limit
Logistics of Europe and mobile eCommerce, fueled by delivery, skipping the enabling new services and weather events causing Europe’s exchange of goods with
Canada. internet access. showrooming channel. optimizations. disruptions in supply chains. the world.
2. Secessionist tendencies in EU: 7. Increase in M&A activity driven • Growing origin traceability • Internet of Things creating an 19.Shrinking resource deposits 22.Changing labor regulations,
• Further disruption caused by by needs for growth of scale, expectations. ecosystem for development of will lead to a rise in their prices such as the EU agreement on
Brexit may negatively affect improvements of efficiency and 12.Talent supply gaps acting as process-optimizing and add to the popularization of posted workers’ wages, may
the volume of goods operating costs. a bottleneck for implementation technologies. recycling and more efficient reshape the landscape of
transported to EU countries 8. Fuels (incl. crude oil) price of digital innovations and • Electro-mobility advancements resource allocation. European logistics to the
fluctuations harder to predict making electric-powered disadvantage of eastern
and cause delays due to increasing the cost of manual
vehicles an important part of European providers.
restrictions. due to changes in supply and labor. urban logistics and
• Attitudes advocating demand. 13.Population ageing will increase transportation systems.
withdrawal from the EU in 9. Further internationalization of the market demand for seniors • Other transport technology
other countries may grow logistics businesses, with transport solutions. changes (including
stronger in upcoming years. emergence of new cross-border 14.Terrorist activities creating the autonomous transportation,
3. Trade wars: capital groups. need for better security and drones).
• Consequences of trade wars 10.Shift towards sharing safety of T&L services, 16.Development of logistics
may alter trade routes. economy to continue and allow regardless of geography. Infrastructure:
for more efficient resource • Across Emerging economies,
• Trades pressures from the US
utilization within the T&L sector accelerated by Belt and Road
may also have positive impact
(sharing warehouses, trucks). Initiative, focused in central
on trade between Europe Asia.
and China. • Further growth of existing and
4. Growth of Asia-Europe trade emergence of new regional
fueled by Belt and Road hubs.
Initiative.
Source: PwC analysis, Agility’s Emerging Market Logistics Index 2018.
PwC 35You can also read
