The energy industry (and beyond) as we know it today will be obsolete by 2030 - CONSUMER

Arp 272
                                            CONSUMER

   TECHNOLOGY

                The energy industry (and beyond)
                   as we know it today will be
                       obsolete by 2030

                                                   BUSINESS
                                                    MODEL

All successful (disruptive) technologies:
                   iphone sales
• Are adopted
  on an S curve

Are accelerating

All successful (disruptive) technologies:
• Offer consumers key benefits
  (value, convenience, etc) –
  10x

• Are most successful when
  convergence of technology +
  business model innovation
  meets consumer delight –
  10x

Customer experience is the new disruption

 The bottom line: the “cost of customer delight” is going down rapidly thanks to
new digital technologies, and so if you don’t implement it, your competitors will…

What are the implications for the energy (and
transportation) industry in the next 10-15 years?

What’s converging now?                                                  Are all very close
In the world of energy (and beyond)                                     to a tipping point
                                                                         on the S curves

           Li-Ion batteries                     Electric Vehicles

                                        BD 5G
                                                                      Technology +
                                        ML AI                       Business models +
                                                                    Consumer Demand

           Autonomous vehicles/Fleets             Solar Energy

Tesla

•   Li-Ion costs dropped by 14%/year 2000-2010
•   From 2010-2014 costs dropped by 16%/yr (due to EVs)
•   To-date, decreases in cost ~ 80% over the previous 8 years

•   20 (mostly Chinese) Li-Ion megafactories come online by 2021 (total 325 GWh)

•   $100 KWh price point by late 2018 for cells and for packs by 2020 (Tesla)
•   $90 KWhr by 2021 and $60 KWh by 2023 (Tesla)

•   Maintenance: 2000+ vs 18 moving parts
•   Operations: 2-5x cheaper to fuel
•   Purchase: Close to equivalent to buy now
•   Speed/Fun: Faster
•   Longevity: Last at least 2.5x longer
•   Storage: 200 mile (320km) EV has 2 days charge
    for a house (vehicle to grid services)

•   China now has 450+ EV companies (and 140+
    battery companies and building ~20
    Gigafactories)

                                                      Tesla 3
•   Costs to buy are rapidly decreasing on cost      Nissan Leaf
    curve – could predict sub $10K EV by 2021        Besturn E30

•   Fleets/ride-share are already growing rapidly        •   Level 4 automation already achieved
    (Uber, Lft, Didi, Ola, etc) – outpace taxis in key   •   Level 5 predicted by 2020-2021 - manufacturers
    markets now                                          •   50 companies are testing self-driving cars in CA
                                                         •   ~ 1 M km logged in 2017 - just 2 companies
•   Waymo - just ordered 20,000 EVs for 2019
•   Didi – planning for 1,000,000 EVs by 2020            •   Lidar - $70K in 2012; $250 in 2016;

•   Solar PV electricity costs have fallen 73% since 2010
•   Installed base has been doubling every year since 1990

•   NREL (2017) utility-scale solar; < $1.00/W and < $0.06/KWh
•   US average electricity price in late 2017 was $0.12/KWh

•   Rooftop solar < transmission costs by 2020 @ $0.05/KWh
•   Solar + battery < than transmission costs by 2022

•   Technology +
      • Solar PV costs decreased 200x since 1970
      • Install more than 2x/year since 1990
•   Business model +
      • Zero down solar (3rd party finance)
•   Consumer demand

There is currently a rapid and exponential convergence
What could all this mean by 2030?
     of multiple technology/business models that will disrupt
          the global energy market in the next decade +
•   95% of all passenger vehicle miles will be driven by on-demand, fully autonomous vehicles (60% of all
    cars autonomous fleets) - cost/mile goes down by 10x
•   Driverless vehicles will obsolete car ownership (combined with ride-sharing to create TaaS)
•   Average US family will save $5-7,000/year on transportation (> $600-800B into US economy)

•   90% decrease in personal transportation-related CO2 emissions
•   80% reduction in energy consumption
•   80% reduction in parking in cities - frees up valuable real estate
•   Decrease traffic accidents
•   Repurpose batteries by 2025 provided 200 GWh grid services every year

•   1.2 TWh on wheels
•   Oil demand decrease by 30% by 2030 driving prices down to $25/barrel
•   No on-going need for central generation
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