Transport Infrastructure for Carbon Capture and Storage

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Transport Infrastructure for Carbon Capture and Storage
Transport Infrastructure for
Carbon Capture and Storage
WHITEPAPER ON REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR MIDCENTURY DECARBONIZATION

Authored by

Elizabeth Abramson and Dane McFarlane
Great Plains Institute

Jeff Brown
University of Wyoming
                                                            REGIONAL
                                                            CARBON
                                                            CAPTURE
                                                            DEPLOYMENT
JUNE 2020                                                   INITIATIVE
Transport Infrastructure for Carbon Capture and Storage
Table of Contents
                                                                                 Executive Summary ...............................................................           i
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                 Analytical Overview ................................................................ 1
                                                                                          Goals and Rationale
                                                                                          Study Approach
                                                                                          Summary of Findings

                                                                                 Full Discussion of Findings & Results
                                                                                    Approach, Data, and Tools ................................................. 15

                                                                                    Results ................................................................................. 22
                                                                                          Near- and Medium-Term Opportunities Scenario
                                                                                          High-Cost Sensitivity Scenario
                                                                                          Midcentury Decarbonization Scenario
                                                                                    Discussion of Findings ....................................................... 28
                                                                                    Conclusion ........................................................................... 37

                                                                                 Methodological Appendix....................................................... A1
Transport Infrastructure for Carbon Capture and Storage
Executive Summary
Analysis by the International Energy Agency           in the future.4 Thus, this analysis sought to
(IEA) has determined that deployment of               answer the question:
carbon capture technology is critical to
achieve midcentury US and global carbon               What is the scale and design
reduction goals and temperature targets.1
                                                      necessary for regional CO2
Carbon capture enables power and industrial
                                                      transport infrastructure
sectors to reduce or eliminate carbon
emissions while protecting and creating high-
                                                      to meet US midcentury
wage employment. For key carbon-intensive             decarbonization goals in the
industries such as steel and cement, significant      industrial and power sectors?
CO2 emissions result from the mechanical or
chemical nature of the production process             As seen in the maps included in this white

                                                                                                            TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
itself, regardless of the source of process           paper, many of the industrial and power
energy. Industrial CO2 emissions account for          facilities in the United States are located
33% of US stationary emissions.3 Carbon               in regions without significant deep saline
capture is therefore an essential emissions           or hydrocarbon geologic formations. Long
reduction tool for industries that are otherwise      distance transport infrastructure can unlock
difficult to decarbonize even after switching to      the economic potential for these facilities to
low-carbon electricity. IEA modeling estimates        sell captured CO2 and earn tax credits for
that more than 28 billion tons of CO2 must be         storage under Section 45Q. CO2 transport
captured globally from industrial processes           infrastructure achieves beneficial economies
by 2060 in order to meet international                of scale with higher volumes of CO2 delivered.
decarbonization goals and temperature                 Large trunk lines designed to carry CO2 from
targets.2                                             many facilities toward many storage sites
                                                      can achieve a lower transport cost over long
Infrastructure is needed on a significant scale       distances than lines with capacity designed
to decarbonize the industrial and power               for only one or a handful of capture projects.
sectors, even when accounting for aggressive          Long-term, coordinated planning on regional
low-carbon and renewable energy adoption. In          CO2 transport corridors will result in optimized,
addition to the economy-wide retrofit of carbon       regional scale infrastructure that minimizes
capture equipment at industrial and power             costs, land use, and construction requirements
facilities, regional scale transport infrastructure   while maximizing decarbonization across
will be required to deliver captured CO2 to           industrial and power sectors throughout the
sites of utilization and long-term storage.           United States. This whitepaper presents
Previous work by the State Carbon Capture             the results of a two-year modeling effort to
Work Group, an initiative facilitated by the          identify such regional scale CO2 transport
Great Plains Institute, identified the limitations    infrastructure that would serve existing facilities
of building CO2 transport infrastructure on           and allow participation by new capture projects
a project-by-project basis and explored               and facilities in the future.
the long-term benefit of “super-sizing” CO2
infrastructure to enable expanded capacity            This analysis identified the most feasible

                                                                                                                                      i
Transport Infrastructure for Carbon Capture and Storage
near- and medium-term opportunities for            of anthropogenic CO2 based on near- and
                                                                                 deployment of carbon capture equipment at          medium-term economics that include the
                                                                                 individual emitting facilities and focused on the  Section 45Q tax credit. Cost estimates indicate
                                                                                 Western, Midwestern, Plains, and Gulf regions      that beneficial economies of scale are achieved
                                                                                 of the US. The technological and economic          via large shared trunk lines that reduce the per-
                                                                                 limitations of deploying carbon
                                                                                 capture at each emitting facility This whitepaper presents the results of
                                                                                 were considered. Los Alamos a two-year modeling effort to identify
                                                                                 National Laboratory's SimCCS
                                                                                                                      regional scale CO2 transport infrastructure
                                                                                 model was deployed to create
                                                                                 theoretical CO2 transport
                                                                                                                      that would serve existing facilities and
                                                                                 networks that minimized costs allow participation by new capture projects
                                                                                 and maximized storage while          and facilities in the future.
                                                                                 protecting natural resources,
                                                                                 public lands, population centers, indigenous or    ton cost of CO2 transport. Analysis indicated
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                 tribal lands, and a variety of other geographic    that smaller pipelines built for single projects,
                                                                                 factors. The scenarios presented here are          or small feeder lines that connect individual
                                                                                 only for theoretical consideration across broad    facilities, result in relatively higher per-ton
                                                                                 geographic areas and are not meant to identify     transport costs along those segments. These
                                                                                 or proscribe the specific location of CO2          cost estimates were conducted using average
                                                                                 transport infrastructure.                          rates of return for capital investments and
                                                                                                                                    show potential to enable capture at facilities
                                                                                 This process identified 1,517 45Q-eligible         that have moderate to relatively high capture
                                                                                 facilities across the United States that emit      cost through policies that provide low cost
                                                                                 a total of 2,352 million metric tons of CO2        financing or other support.
                                                                                 annually. This accounts for 89% of total US
                                                                                 stationary CO2 emissions.5 A facility-specific     Further sensitivity studies revealed two
                                                                                 technical and financial screening then identified  findings:
                                                                                 418 facilities as near- and medium-term
                                                                                 candidates for capture retrofit within the study   First, that near-term potential currently exists
                                                                                 region. More detail on this facility selection     for industrial sectors with relatively low costs of
                                                                                 process is included in the methodological          capture (e.g. ethanol) to participate in a shared
                                                                                 appendix. These near- and medium-term              transport corridor to sites of storage in Kansas,
                                                                                 facilities emit 797 million metric tons of CO2 per Oklahoma, and Texas.
                                                                                 year, of which 358 million metric tons can be
                                                                                 feasibly captured at relatively low cost under     Second, that technical storage potential in
                                                                                 today’s policy context and with conservative       deep saline formations nationwide offers a
                                                                                 economic assumptions.                              low-cost opportunity for local storage, pending
                                                                                                                                    site-specific geological characterization, that
                                                                                 Using the SimCCS model, this analysis              will allow full buildout to nearly any facility
                                                                                 identified a regional network of CO2 transport     that qualifies for 45Q under currently defined
                                                                                 infrastructure that can achieve the capture,       minimum thresholds for CO2 emissions.
                                                                                 delivery, and storage of nearly 300 million tons

  ii
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CARBON CAPTURE, STORAGE, AND
REGIONAL CO2 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
This analysis identified 1,517 industrial and         medium-term potential for carbon capture
power facilities throughout the United States         retrofit under today’s policy landscape and
where stationary CO2 emissions are sufficient         with conservative economic assumptions.
to meet minimum thresholds for the Section            The quantity of capturable CO2 at optimized
45Q tax credit (100,000 metric tons per year          capture costs from these near- and medium-
and 500,000 metric tons per year for industrial       term facilities was estimated at approximately
and power facilities, respectively). These            358 million tons per year. The number of
facilities emit an approximate total of 2.3 billion   facilities, quantity of emissions, and estimated
tons of CO2 annually. Of those that would             theoretical cost of capture for each industrial
qualify for 45Q, 418 facilities met additional        sector are listed in Table ii.
screening criteria to determine near- and

                                                                                                                TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
Figure i. Emitting facilities: 45Q Eligibility and near-term capture opportunities

        NEAR- AND MEDIUM-TERM FACILITIES

        REMAINING 45Q-ELIGIBLE FACILITIES

        ALL INDUSTRIAL AND POWER FACILITIES

        STUDY REGION

                                                                              Figure authored by GPI based on
                                                                                  data from EPA FLIGHT 2018.

                                                                                                                iii
Table i. 45Q-Qualifying facilities and emissions by industry
                                                                                                                               Share of
                                                                                                              Number of      45Q-Eligible                       Biogenic                      Nitrous
                                                                                  Industry                                                      CO2                             Methane
                                                                                                               Facilities      Facility                           CO2                         Oxide
                                                                                                                              Emissions
                                                                                  Coal Power Plant                 308          53.8%        1,269.6              0.3               3.0         6.2
                                                                                  Gas Power Plant                  571          23.8%           565.4             0.7               0.4         0.4
                                                                                  Refineries                       78           6.9%            163.3              -                0.6         0.4
                                                                                  Cement                           135          3.7%            88.8              0.9               0.1         0.2
                                                                                  Hydrogen                         57           2.7%            64.3               -                0.1         0.1
                                                                                  Steel                            31           2.3%            54.0               -                0.2          -
                                                                                  Ethanol                          173          1.3%            31.0              8.97              0.1         0.1
                                                                                  Ammonia                          21           1.2%            25.1              0.0               0.0         4.1
                                                                                  Petrochemicals                   30           1.1%            26.0              0.1               0.4         0.1
                                                                                  Metals, Minerals &
                                                                                                                   37           0.9%            19.5               -                0.4          -
                                                                                  Other
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                  Gas Processing                   40           0.9%            19.9               -                0.7          -
                                                                                  Chemicals                        16           0.8%             8.7               -                0.0         10.4
                                                                                  Pulp & Paper                     18           0.4%             7.8              25.5              2.4         0.1
                                                                                  Waste                             2           0.1%             0.8              1.2               0.6          -
                                                                                  Grand Total                    1,517          100%         2,344.2              29.3              9.1         22.1

                                                                                 All emissions are in million metric tons.

                                                                                 Table ii. Near- and medium-term facilities, capture targets, and cost estimates

                                                                                                                                 Estimated        Share of Total             Average      Range of Cost
                                                                                                               Number of
                                                                                  Industry                                     Capturable CO2      Capturable            Estimated Cost     Estimates
                                                                                                                Facilities
                                                                                                                                  mmt/year          Estimate                  $/ton           $/ton
                                                                                  Coal Power Plant                   58             143.4               40.1%                 $56           $46 - $60
                                                                                  Gas Power Plant                    60              67.9               19.0%                 $57           $53 - $63
                                                                                  Ethanol                           150              50.6               14.1%                 $17           $12 - $30
                                                                                  Cement                             45              32.7                9.1%                 $56           $40 - $75
                                                                                  Refineries                         38              26.5                7.4%                 $56           $43 - $68
                                                                                  Steel                                 6            14.6                4.1%                 $59           $55 - $64
                                                                                  Hydrogen                           34              14.4                4.0%                 $44           $36 - $57
                                                                                  Gas Processing                     20                4.5               1.3%                 $14           $11 - $16
                                                                                  Petrochemicals                        2              1.7               0.5%                 $59           $57 - $60
                                                                                  Ammonia                               3              0.9               0.3%                 $17           $15 - $21
                                                                                  Chemicals                             2              0.7               0.2%                 $30           $19 - $40
                                                                                  Grand Total                       418             357.8               100.0%                $39           $11 - 75
                                                                                 All emissions are in million metric tons.

iv
Figure ii. Optimized transport network for economy-wide CO2 capture and storage

                                                                                           EOR FIELD WITH POTENTIAL

                                                                                                                      TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
                                                                                           CO2 DEMAND
                                                                                           POTENTIAL SALINE
EMITTING FACILITIES                                                                        INJECTION AREA

     AMMONIA                                                                           REGIONAL CO2 INFRASTRUCTURE
                      GAS POWER
                                                                                       (MODELED)
     CEMENT           PLANT                                                            Pipeline capacity (mtpa)
                      GAS          PETROCHEMICALS
REGIONAL
                                                                                                                                              CARBON
                                                                                                                                              CAPTURE
                                                                                                                                              DEPLOYMENT
                                                                                                                                              INITIATIVE

                                                                                 ABOUT THE REGIONAL CARBON CAPTURE DEPLOYMENT
                                                                                 INITIATIVE
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                 The Regional Carbon Capture Deployment Initiative is a network of 25 states, and growing, that
                                                                                 work together to help ensure near-term deployment of carbon capture projects that will reduce
                                                                                 carbon emissions, benefit domestic energy and industrial production, and protect and create high-
                                                                                 wage jobs. The Initiative provides unique and valuable opportunities for governors, state officials,
                                                                                 legislators, and other stakeholders to engage at the state, regional, and national levels.

                                                                                 The Regional Carbon Capture Deployment Initiative is staffed by the Great Plains Institute (GPI) at
                                                                                 the invitation and direction of the State Carbon Capture Work Group.

                                                                                 CONTRIBUTORS
                                                                                 Many thanks to the following individuals for their significant contributions, input, and feedback in
                                                                                 this effort:

                                                                                 Richard Middleton          Los Alamos National Laboratory
                                                                                 Sean Yaw                   Montana State University
                                                                                 Jeff Brown                 University of Wyoming
                                                                                 Jessi Wyatt                Great Plains Institute
                                                                                 Mike Godec                 Advanced Resources International
                                                                                 Kevin Ellett               Indiana University
                                                                                 Ryan Kammer                Indiana University
                                                                                 Steve Carpenter            Enhanced Oil Recovery Institute – University of Wyoming

                                                                                 The study authors also acknowledge numerous staff and faculty from the US Department
                                                                                 of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Indiana
                                                                                 University, Princeton University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and industry and NGO
                                                                                 participants of the Regional Carbon Capture Deployment Initiative.

vi
ACRONYM GUIDE
ARI    – Advanced Resources International                  IPCC    – Intergovernmental Panel on
45Q    – Section 45Q Tax Credit for                                  Climate Change
         Carbon Oxide Sequestration                        kW      – Kilowatt
CCS    – Carbon capture & storage                          MT      – Metric ton
CO2    – Carbon dioxide                                    MMT     – Million metric tons (also as mmt)
CRF    – Capital recovery factor                           MTPA    – Metric tons per annum
DOE    – US Department of Energy                           MW      – Megawatt
eGRID – EPA’s Emissions & Generation                       NATCARB – National Carbon Sequestration
         Resource Integrated Database                                Database and Geographic
EIA    – US Energy Information                                       Information System
         Administration                                    NETL    – National Energy Technology
EOR    – Enhanced oil recovery                                       Laboratory
EPA    – US Environmental Protection                       O&M     – Operations & maintenance

                                                                                                            TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
         Agency                                            SCO2T   – Sequestration of CO2 Tool
FLIGHT – EPA's Facility Level Information on               SMR     – Steam Methane Reformer
         GreenHouse gases Tool                             Ton     – All instances of “ton” in this paper
GHG    – Greenhouse gas                                              are considered metric ton
IEA    – International Energy Agency                       USGS    – United States Geological Survey

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
REFERENCES
1   International Energy Agency, 20 Years of Carbon
    Capture and Storage: Accelerating Future Deployment
    (2016).
2   International Energy Agency, Transforming Industry
    through CCUS. May 2019. https://www.iea.org/re-
    ports/transforming-industry-through-ccus
3   United States Environmental Protection Agency, Sum-
    mary GHG Data 2016 (as of August 19, 2018), August
    19, 2018, https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/
    files/2018-10/ghgp_data_2016_8_19_2018.xlsx.
4   State CO2-EOR Deployment Work Group, 21st Century
    Infrastructure. February 2017. https://www.betteren-
    ergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/White_Pa-
    per_21st_Century_Infrastructure_CO2_Pipelines_0.pdf
5   United States Environmental Protection Agency, Sum-
    mary GHG Data 2016 (as of August 19, 2018), 2018.
6   National Energy Technology Laboratory. A Re-
    view of the CO2 Pipeline Infrastructure in the U.S.
    April 21, 2015. https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/
    files/2015/04/f22/QER%20Analysis%20-%20A%20
    Review%20of%20the%20CO2%20Pipeline%20Infra-
    structure%20in%20the%20U.S_0.pdf

                                                                                                            vii
Analytical Overview
GOALS AND RATIONALE
Meeting decarbonization goals in the United          Through the identification and assessment
States will require significant investment and       of existing CO2 capture opportunities and
effort to retrofit carbon capture equipment on       storage potential and location, as well as the
industrial and power operations where simply         modeling of regional transport infrastructure,
switching to low-carbon energy sources will          this analysis aimed to study the following
not address emissions from the chemical and          research questions:
mechanical aspects of industrial production
processes.                                           1. What is the total potential for CO2 capture at
                                                        industrial and power facilities where capture
The United States has a vast abundance of               retrofit is technically and economically
CO2 storage potential in geologic formations in         feasible?

                                                                                                         TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
many areas throughout the country, including
in deep saline and petroleum basins. In              2. Where are the existing opportunities for safe,
many cases, it makes economic sense to                  secure, and long-term geologic CO2 storage
store captured CO2 in deep saline formations            in deep saline formations and petroleum
within the vicinity of capture facilities. Where        basins? Where are these areas in relation to
emissions occur in regions without significant          capture opportunities?
geologic opportunity, however, CO2 transport
infrastructure is required to deliver captured       3. What is the scale and design required
CO2 to markets for utilization and storage.             for regional CO2 transport infrastructure
                                                        to deliver CO2 from sources identified in
Under today’s policy context, which includes            Question 1 to the markets and storage
the Section 45Q tax credit, it is already a             locations identified in Question 2?
positive economic proposition in some areas             Furthermore, what investment, scale, and
and industry sectors to finance regional CO2            planning are required to build regional CO2
transport infrastructure that will essentially          transport infrastructure that enables the
be paid for through sales revenue and tax               economy-wide capture of CO2 required by
credits. As nationwide efforts and investment in        US midcentury decarbonization goals and
decarbonization continue toward midcentury,             global temperature targets?
additional capture facilities will benefit
from regional transport infrastructure and           STUDY APPROACH
storage locations for captured CO2. Regional
                                                     This analysis was conducted on the behalf
transport infrastructure that is planned and
                                                     of the Regional Carbon Capture Deployment
built to allow for additional future capacity will
                                                     Initiative through a collaboration of the
contribute to maximizing CO2 storage and
                                                     Great Plains Institute, Los Alamos National
minimizing transport costs, capital investment
                                                     Laboratory, Montana State University, Stanford
requirements, and land use impact.
                                                     University, Indiana University, the University

                                                                                                                   1
of Wyoming Enhanced Oil Recovery Institute,       Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA)
                                                                                 and numerous others. Data, technical              Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program were
                                                                                 support, and consultation were provided by        collected using the Facility Level Information
                                                                                 Advanced Resourced International, Inc., the       on GreenHouse Gases Tool (FLIGHT). FLIGHT
                                                                                 National Energy Technology Laboratory, and        publishes emission levels for criteria pollutants
                                                                                 participants from a broad variety of industry     specific to each applicable GHG Reporting
                                                                                 and nongovernmental organizations through         Subpart activity, such as electricity generation,
                                                                                 the Regional Carbon Capture Deployment            ammonia manufacturing, cement production,
                                                                                 Initiative.                                       and iron and steel production, among others.3
                                                                                                                                   Direct CO2 emission levels were used to
                                                                                 Nationwide storage potential in deep saline       determine facility eligibility for Section 45Q tax
                                                                                 geologic formations was determined using          credits for CO2 capture at minimum thresholds
                                                                                 the Sequestration of CO2 Tool (SCO2T), a          of 100,000 tons and 500,000 tons per year for
                                                                                 reduced order model created by Los Alamos         industrial and power facilities, respectively.4
                                                                                 National Laboratory and Indiana University
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                 that integrates data from the US Department       These 45Q-eligible facilities and their
                                                                                 of Energy’s National Carbon Sequestration         process-specific emissions were compiled into
                                                                                 Database and Geographic Information System        a database, against which a screening process
                                                                                 (NATCARB) Carbon Storage Atlas and United         was applied based on facility operation,
                                                                                 States Geological Survey (USGS).1 SCO2T           production, energy use, heat rate, and other
                                                                                 provides estimates for technical storage          factors. This screening process was intended
                                                                                 potential, porosity, thickness, and theoretical   to identify potential near- and medium-term
                                                                                 storage costs for each significant saline         facilities that could participate in regional
                                                                                 formation across the US on a geographic grid      CO2 transport infrastructure networks for
                                                                                 of 10 km2 cells.                                  capture and delivery of CO2 under today’s
                                                                                                                                   market and policy context. EPA’s Emissions
                                                                                 Potential demand for anthropogenic CO2            & Generation Resource Integrated Database
                                                                                 from existing enhanced oil recovery (EOR)         (eGRID)5 provided unit- and generator-specific
                                                                                 operations was calculated by Advanced             operational data and was supplemented by
                                                                                 Resources International, Inc. (ARI), according    power plant information from the proprietary
                                                                                 to a proprietary model based on petroleum         ABB Ability Velocity Suite.6
                                                                                 basin geology and historic operations.2 For
                                                                                 this analysis, average annual rates of purchase   A meta-study and literature review of published
                                                                                 for CO2 at $20 per ton were estimated by          capture costs, as well as capital, financing,
                                                                                 ARI for existing operations under two oil price   and operation and maintenance costs for
                                                                                 scenarios, at $40 per barrel and $60 per          capture equipment such as amine solvent units
                                                                                 barrel. For near- and medium-term scenarios,      and compressor systems, was conducted to
                                                                                 this study relied on estimates based on the       calculate theoretical capture costs based
                                                                                 more conservative $40 per barrel oil price        on the emission quantity, operational patterns,
                                                                                 scenario.                                         and energy costs of each facility. A detailed
                                                                                                                                   description of screening process criteria
                                                                                 Stationary emissions from industrial              and capture cost estimation can be found in
                                                                                 and power facilities published by the US          the methodological appendix of this report.

  2
Average estimated capture costs for each         Through an iterative process, a series of
industrial sector considered by this study are   scenarios were constructed to explore the
published in the Summary of Findings section     research questions outlined in the previous
on the following pages of this report.           section of this report. These research
                                                 questions focus on identifying broad
Los Alamos National Laboratory’s SimCCS          geographic corridors for regional CO2
model 7 was used to simulate optimized           transport; modeling which facilities and
CO2 transport infrastructure to link cost        segments of pipeline might break even or
effective sources of CO2 to locations of         produce revenue within the existing and
potential economic demand for utilization        near-term economic context; determining
and storage. SimCCS minimizes the cost           how potential economic demand for CO2 at
of CO2 transport routes over a cost surface      existing EOR operations and technical storage
based on numerous layers of geographic           potential in nearby deep saline formations can
information and right-of-way concerns such as    provide opportunities for CO2 capture retrofit;
urban areas, bodies of water, publicly-owned     assessing the overall opportunity for carbon

                                                                                                      TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
lands and natural resources, indigenous          capture and storage under the Section 45Q
or tribal lands, and existing infrastructure.    tax credit; and finally, identifying the remaining
The physical and financial requirements of       barriers and areas in need of support to fully
transport infrastructure were calculated and     realize the potential for economy-wide capture
analyzed using the National Energy Technology    and storage of CO2 to meet midcentury
Laboratory (NETL) CO2 Transport Cost Model,      decarbonization goals.
which were also integrated into the cost
calculations of SimCCS.8

                                                                                                                3
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
                                                                                 Capture Feasibility: Potential Sources of CO2

                                                                                 Each year, stationary power sources in the                      reported by the US EPA, 1,517 are likely
                                                                                 US emit nearly 2 billion metric tons of GHG                     eligible for the 45Q tax credit. These
                                                                                 emissions, while US industrial facilities emit                  45Q-eligible facilities make up 89% of all
                                                                                 nearly 1 billion metric tons of GHG emissions.                  CO2 emissions from US power and industrial
                                                                                 Combined emissions from these power and                         facilities. This analysis identified 418 facilities
                                                                                 industrial facilities comprise roughly half of all              as candidates for near- and medium-term
                                                                                 US GHG emissions.9                                              deployment, with the combined potential
                                                                                                                                                 to capture 358 million metric tons of CO2
                                                                                 Of the 6,586 power and industrial facilities                    emissions annually.

                                                                                 Table 3. Stationary emissions from US industrial and power facilities
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                                                              Share of US
                                                                                                            Number of                                      Biogenic                       Nitrous
                                                                                  Industry                                   Stationary CO2    CO2                        Methane
                                                                                                             Facilities                                      CO2                          Oxide
                                                                                                                               Emissions
                                                                                  Coal Power Plant               336             45%          1,270.6         0.4            3.0             6.2
                                                                                  Gas Power Plant                963             21%          581.3           0.9            0.5             0.4
                                                                                  Refineries                     121              6%          171.3           0.0            0.7             0.4
                                                                                  Metals, Minerals &
                                                                                                               1,511              5%          101.1           5.3            42.3            0.4
                                                                                  Other
                                                                                  Gas Processing               1,246              4%           88.9           0.2            9.9             0.1
                                                                                  Waste                        1,225              4%           11.1          17.5            86.7            0.4
                                                                                  Cement                         149              3%           90.4           0.9            0.1             0.2
                                                                                  Hydrogen                       79               2%           66.2            -             0.1             0.1
                                                                                  Steel                          82               2%           58.5            -             0.3             0.0
                                                                                  Chemicals                      266              2%           30.4           0.7            0.1            13.1
                                                                                  Petrochemicals                 61               2%           46.1           0.1            0.5             0.1
                                                                                  Pulp & Paper                   225              2%           37.1          112.2           5.2             0.5
                                                                                  Other Power Plant              118              1%           36.4           9.2            0.2             0.2
                                                                                  Ethanol                        181              1%           31.2           9.2            0.1             0.1
                                                                                  Ammonia                        23               1%          25.21            -              -              4.1
                                                                                  Grand Total                  6,586             100%         2,645.8        147.9          149.5           26.2
                                                                                 All emissions are in million metric tons.

                                                                                       45Q-eligible facilities make up 89% of all CO2 emissions
                                                                                       from US power and industrial facilities. This analysis
                                                                                       identified 418 facilities as candidates for near- and
                                                                                       medium-term deployment, with the combined potential to
                                                                                       capture 358 million metric tons of CO2 emissions annually.

  4
Summary of Findings: 45Q Eligibility
Figure 3. 45Q-eligible facilities by industry and emissions

                                                                                                                             TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
 Emitting Facilities
                                       METALS, MINERALS
        AMMONIA        ETHANOL         & OTHER
                       GAS POWER
        CEMENT                         PETROCHEMICALS
                       PLANT

                       GAS             PULP &
        CHEMICALS
                       PROCESSING      PAPER
                                                           STEEL             Figure authored by GPI based
        COAL POWER
                                                                             on data from EPA FLIGHT 2018.
                       HYDROGEN        REFINERIES          WASTE
        PLANT

Table 4. 45Q-eligible facilities by industry and emissions

                                                            Share of
                                    Number of                                          Biogenic                    Nitrous
 Industry                                                 45Q-Eligible    CO2                          Methane
                                     Facilities                                          CO2                       Oxide
                                                           Emissions
 Coal Power Plant                      308                    53.8%      1,269.6          0.3                3.0     6.2
 Gas Power Plant                       571                    23.8%      565.4            0.7                0.4     0.4
 Refineries                             78                     6.9%      163.3             -                 0.6     0.4
 Cement                                135                     3.7%       88.8            0.9                0.1     0.2
 Hydrogen                               57                     2.7%       64.3             -                 0.1     0.1
 Steel                                  31                     2.3%       54.0             -                 0.2      -
 Ethanol                               173                     1.3%       31.0            8.97               0.1     0.1
 Ammonia                                21                     1.2%       25.1            0.0                0.0     4.1
 Petrochemicals                         30                     1.1%       26.0            0.1                0.4     0.1
 Metals, Minerals &
                                        37                     0.9%       19.5             -                 0.4      -
 Other
 Gas Processing                         40                     0.9%       19.9             -                 0.7      -
 Chemicals                              16                     0.8%        8.7             -                 0.0    10.4
 Pulp & Paper                           18                     0.4%        7.8            25.5               2.4     0.1
 Waste                                   2                     0.1%        0.8            1.2                0.6      -
 Grand Total                          1,517                   100%       2,344.2          29.3               9.1    22.1
All emissions are in million metric tons.

                                                                                                                                       5
Summary of Findings: Near- and Medium-Term Potential Capture Retrofit
                                                                                 Figure 4. Identified near- and medium-term capture facilities within study region
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                  Emitting Facilities
                                                                                         AMMONIA        ETHANOL      PETROCHEMICALS

                                                                                                        GAS POWER
                                                                                         CEMENT                      REFINERIES
                                                                                                        PLANT

                                                                                                        GAS          STEEL
                                                                                         CHEMICALS
                                                                                                        PROCESSING                                 Figure authored by GPI based
                                                                                         COAL POWER
                                                                                         PLANT          HYDROGEN                                   on data from EPA FLIGHT 2018.

                                                                                 Table 5. Identified near- and medium-term capture facilities

                                                                                                                                           Average                                 Share of Total
                                                                                                                          Number of                             Estimated
                                                                                  Industry                                              Estimated Cost                              Capturable
                                                                                                                           Facilities                         Capturable CO2
                                                                                                                                             $/ton                                   Estimate
                                                                                  Coal Power Plant                                58         $56                    143.4             40.1%
                                                                                  Gas Power Plant                                 60         $57                    67.9              19.0%
                                                                                  Ethanol                                         150        $17                    50.6              14.1%
                                                                                  Cement                                          45         $56                    32.7               9.1%
                                                                                  Refineries                                      38         $56                    26.5               7.4%
                                                                                  Steel                                            6         $59                    14.6               4.1%
                                                                                  Hydrogen                                        34         $44                    14.4               4.0%
                                                                                  Gas Processing                                  20         $14                     4.5               1.3%
                                                                                  Petrochemicals                                   2         $59                     1.7               0.5%
                                                                                  Ammonia                                          3         $17                     0.9               0.3%
                                                                                  Chemicals                                        2         $30                     0.7               0.2%
                                                                                  Grand Total                                     418        $39                    357.8             100.0%
                                                                                 All emissions are in million metric tons.

  6
This analysis included a literature review and          optimizing cost of capture on a per ton
meta-study of published costs of capture                basis. Table 6 reports the average and range
for a variety of industries and equipment               of estimated capture costs calculated for
configurations. Unit- and process-specific              this study. A full description of the sources,
emissions were identified to determine optimal          equipment, capital financing scenarios,
capture quantities while minimizing overall             and cost calculations can be found in the
capital investment requirements, thereby                methodological appendix of this report.

Figure 5 & Table 6. Estimated capture cost per industry for near-term facilities in study area

 $80
                                                                                 Average         Range of Cost
                                                         Industry            Estimated Cost        Estimates
 $70                                                                              $/ton              $/ton
                                                         Gas Processing             $14             $11 - $16
 $60
                                                         Ethanol                    $17             $12 - $30

                                                                                                                     TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
 $50                                                     Ammonia                    $17             $15 - $21
                                                         Chemicals                  $30             $19 - $40
 $40                                                     Hydrogen                   $44             $36 - $57
                                                         Refineries                 $56             $43 - $68
 $30
                                                         Coal Power Plant           $56             $46 - $60
 $20                                                     Cement                     $56             $40 - $75
                                                         Gas Power Plant            $57             $53 - $63
 $10                                                     Steel                      $59             $55 - $64
                                                         Petrochemicals             $59             $57 - $60
 $0
             ing

               ol
             nia

               ls

                n

                s

              nt

                                                   el
                                                  als
              er

              er

                                                        Figure authored by GPI based on data from EPA FLIGHT 2018.
            rie
            ge
           ica
            an

                                                Ste
           me
           ow

           ow

                                               mic
         ess

          mo

        fine
        dro
       Eth

       em

      al P

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       Ce
     Am

                                            che
     roc

    Hy

    Re
    Ch

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                                         tro
                                       Pe
Ga

                                                                                                                               7
Figure 6. Estimated capture target and cost of capture per industry for near- and medium-
                                                                                 term capture opportunities in study area

                                                                                                                     CHEMICALS                                                                               Figure authored by GPI based on
                                                                                                                     $19 - $40                                                                               data from EPA FLIGHT 2018.
                                                                                                 AMMONIA
                                                                                                  $15 - $21
                                                                                          PETROCHEMICALS
                                                                                                  $57 - $60

                                                                                                                       1.7
                                                                                                                           14

                                                                                                                                     MT
                                                                                                                             .4
                                                                                                                14              MT

                                                                                                                                                                                            14
                                                                                                                  .6                GAS PROCESSING                         CO
                                                                                                                     MT

                                                                                                                                                                                              3.4
                                                                                                                                    $11 - $16                                AL

                                                                                                                                                                                                  MT
                                                                                                                              HYDROGEN

                                                                                                                                                                                  $4
                                                                                                                              $36 - $57

                                                                                                                                                                                    6-
                                                                                                         26.5             STEEL

                                                                                                                                                                                            $60
                                                                                                              MT          $55 - $64
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                                                      REFINERIES
                                                                                                                      $43 - $68

                                                                                                                      CEMENT
                                                                                                       32.7 MT        $40 - $75
                                                                                                                        ET

                                                                                                                                NO
                                                                                                                          HA

                                                                                                                                                                                       6
                                                                                                                                                                                  3

                                                                                                                                     L$                                           -$
                                                                                                                      50                  12                                 53
                                                                                                                                               - $3                   E   R$
                                                                                                                        .6                            0   G AS PO W
                                                                                                                           MT
                                                                                                                                                                            .9 MT
                                                                                                                                                                          67

                                                                                           Each piece of the outer ring                                                                    Potential capture amounts and
                                                                                           proportionally represents an                                                                    range of estimated capture
                                                                                           individual facility in each sector                                                              costs in each sector
                                                                                                                                                                                           MT: Million metric tons CO2

  8
Summary of Findings: CO2 Storage Opportunities

Figure 7. Geologic deep saline formations and existing oil fields with CO2 storage potential

                                                                                                             TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
                FIELD WITH TECHNICAL
                POTENTIAL FOR EOR

                SALINE FORMATION

                EXISTING CO2
                PIPELINE

                                                                           Figure authored by GPI based on
                                                                           data from ARI and NATCARB.

A total technical potential for storage in deep     report focus on EOR operations and locations
saline formations of over 4.5 trillion metric       within deep saline formations that present
tons was identified within the study region.        feasible economics under today’s policy and
Meanwhile, existing EOR operations within           market context, accounting for estimated
this same region may have the potential to          costs of capture, the Section 45Q tax credit,
store over 500 million metric tons of CO2           transportation costs, injection and storage
per year, or over 10 billion metric tons over       costs, the delivered price of CO2, and potential
20 years. These estimates refer to technical        oil revenue. This study was not intended to
potential without consideration of costs and        perform further geologic characterization of
economic feasibility. For modeling, this analysis   deep saline formations to identify specific
did consider the likely market price of CO2 for     injection sites. Local planning and geologic
utilization and storage by EOR, as well as the      characterization must be performed to identify
estimated cost of injection, storage, and long-     feasible injection sites within broader geologic
term monitoring in deep saline formations.          formations.
The modeling scenarios presented in this

                                                                                                                       9
Summary of Findings:
                                                                                 CO2 Transport Infrastructure for Economy-Wide Deployment
                                                                                 As outlined in the sections above, and detailed                    and international temperature targets, shared
                                                                                 in the methodological appendix of this paper,                      regional CO2 transport infrastructure will
                                                                                 this analysis identified near- and medium-                         minimize investment requirements, transport
                                                                                 term opportunities for capture at industrial                       costs, and land use. Los Alamos National
                                                                                 and power facilities along with likely geologic                    Laboratory’s SimCCS model was used to
                                                                                 storage opportunities in deep saline formations                    identify optimal regional scale transport
                                                                                 and existing EOR operations. To maximize                           networks that deliver CO2 from capture
                                                                                 CO2 capture and storage and approach the                           facilities to storage locations identified by this
                                                                                 scale needed for US decarbonization targets                        analysis, resulting in Figure 8.

                                                                                 Figure 8. Optimized transport network for economy-wide CO2 capture and storage
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                                                                                                                          EOR FIELD WITH POTENTIAL
                                                                                                                                                                                          CO2 DEMAND
                                                                                                                                                                                          POTENTIAL SALINE
                                                                                 EMITTING FACILITIES                                                                                      INJECTION AREA

                                                                                      AMMONIA                                                                                        REGIONAL CO2 INFRASTRUCTURE
                                                                                                       GAS POWER
                                                                                                                                                                                     (MODELED)
                                                                                      CEMENT           PLANT                                                                         Pipeline capacity (mtpa)
                                                                                                       GAS          PETROCHEMICALS
Summary of Findings: Transport Costs
The NETL CO2 Transport Cost Model                  facilities had moderately high per-ton transport
was used to estimate capital investment,           costs due to relatively lower volume (100,000
operational, and maintenance costs of each         to 4 million metric tons per year).
segment of the transport network according to
its capacity and length. Costs were calculated     Under current economic conditions, transport
at expected private sector rates of return on      costs would ideally fall between $10 and $20
capital investment without additional support      per ton in order for capture and storage to
or low-cost financing.                             economically break-even under Section 45Q.
                                                   The higher per-ton delivered cost of individual
As expected, costs on a per-ton basis are          facility feeder lines indicates that shared or
much lower for large shared trunk lines that       coordinated investment of CO2 transport
transport huge volumes of CO2 (more than           infrastructure, and/or supportive policies
12 million metric tons per year), commonly         such as low-cost financing, may be needed

                                                                                                      TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
achieving transport costs well below $10 per       to achieve optimal regional scale transport
ton. Segments that transport between 4 and         infrastructure that minimizes total system cost
12 million tons per year had estimated costs       while maximizing economy-wide CO2 capture
generally between $10 and $20 per ton. Small       and storage.
feeder lines that connect to individual capture

Figure 9. Relative transport cost of network segments

    REGIONAL CO2 INFRASTRUCTURE (MODELED)
       Estimated cost per ton transported
                                                                           Cost          Length
               Very low
               Low to moderate                                             Range          miles
               Moderate to high
       Pipeline capacity (million tons per year)
                                                                           Very Low      18,006
Summary of Findings: High-Cost Sensitivity Scenario
                                                                                 Achieving US economy-wide decarbonization          with economic demand for CO2, or to store in
                                                                                 goals will likely require capital investment       nearby saline formations at a cost (for injection,
                                                                                 across numerous sectors and industries.            storage, and monitoring).
                                                                                 Analysis from the IPCC found that carbon
                                                                                 mitigation under the 2 degree C scenario           The results of this high-cost sensitivity show
                                                                                 would cost 138% more if carbon capture             two things: First, that there is immediate
                                                                                 were not included as an emissions reduction        economic potential for geographically
                                                                                 strategy.10 As shown above, while CO2              concentrated, low-cost industrial sources
                                                                                 transport infrastructure does represent a          in the Midwest (e.g., ethanol facilities) to
                                                                                 significant cost, the buildout of a shared         aggregate their CO2 supply and deliver to
                                                                                 regional-scale transport network will minimize     storage locations at petroleum basins in
                                                                                 the overall capital investment required.           Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Second,
                                                                                                                                    in areas with sufficient storage potential in
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                 To identify near-term opportunities for early      deep saline formations, a variety of industries
                                                                                 stage buildout of this regional network, this      with low and moderate capture costs have
                                                                                 study ran SimCCS in a strict economic pricing      economic potential to claim Section 45Q tax
                                                                                 mode in which all infrastructure investment        credits for local storage in nearby deep saline
                                                                                 must be paid for by the sale of CO2. Near-         formations. This is also true for these same
                                                                                 term candidates for capture retrofit were          industries in areas with storage potential
                                                                                 provided the option to invest in transport         in petroleum basins, such as Louisiana,
                                                                                 infrastructure to reach distant EOR operations     Oklahoma, Texas, and parts of the Rockies.

                                                                                 Figure 10. High-cost sensitivity with economic break-even

                                                                                                                                                                        EOR FIELD WITH POTENTIAL
                                                                                                                                                                        CO2 DEMAND
                                                                                                                                                                        POTENTIAL SALINE
                                                                                 EMITTING FACILITIES                                                                    INJECTION AREA

                                                                                      AMMONIA                                                                       REGIONAL CO2 INFRASTRUCTURE
                                                                                                                                                                    (MODELED)
                                                                                                       GAS POWER
                                                                                      CEMENT                                                                        Pipeline capacity (mtpa)
                                                                                                       PLANT
                                                                                                       GAS
Summary of Findings: Expansion of Storage in Deep Saline Formations
Based on the findings of the initial transport         states, and various locations throughout the
network optimization modeling and the                  Rockies. This scenario achieved 669 million
following high-cost sensitivity model run,             metric tons of CO2 capture and storage,
which identified additional economic potential         enabled by saline storage for an expanded
for CO2 storage in deep saline formations              set of 45Q-eligible facilities in addition to
nearby capture facilities, a final regional-scale      the near- and medium-term facilities.
network scenario was modeled to optimize
capture and transport infrastructure for storage       This study used geologic data for deep saline
at previously identified EOR operations and            formations from NATCARB and the SCO2T
additional deep saline formations.                     saline storage database, as detailed in this
                                                       paper’s Study Approach section and the
This aggressive saline scenario, illustrated in        Methodological Appendix. Further geologic
Figure 11, resulted in a regional CO2 transport        characterization of deep saline formations

                                                                                                                       TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
network similar to the initial scenario but with       must be performed in order to identify actual
expanded storage in saline formations in the           injection and storage sites within local areas.
eastern parts of the Midwest, Gulf Coast

Figure 11. Expanded storage in deep saline formations and petroleum basins

                                                                                            EOR FIELD WITH POTENTIAL
                                                                                            CO2 DEMAND
EMITTING FACILITIES                                                                         POTENTIAL SALINE
                                                                                            INJECTION AREA
     AMMONIA
                                                                                        REGIONAL CO2 INFRASTRUCTURE
     CEMENT                                                                             (MODELED)
                      GAS
                                                                                        Pipeline capacity (mtpa)
     CHEMICALS
                      PROCESSING
Full Discussion of Findings and Results
                                                                                 US DECARBONIZATION GOALS AND POLICY CONTEXT
                                                                                 Analysis by the International Energy Agency                  key carbon-intensive industries such as steel
                                                                                 (IEA) has determined that deployment of                      and cement, significant CO2 emissions result
                                                                                 carbon capture technology is critical to achieve             from the mechanical or chemical nature of the
                                                                                 midcentury US and global carbon reduction                    production process itself, regardless of the
                                                                                 and temperature targets.11 IEA’s modeling                    source of process energy. Carbon capture
                                                                                 estimates that more than 28 billion                          enables industrial sectors, which account for
                                                                                 tons of CO2 must be captured globally                        33% of US stationary emissions, to reduce or
                                                                                 from industrial processes by 2060.12                         eliminate carbon emissions while protecting
                                                                                 Decarbonizing the US and global economy                      and creating high-wage employment.14 Carbon
                                                                                 will require significant capital investment.                 capture is therefore an essential emissions
                                                                                 However, IPCC modeling suggests that                         reduction tool for industries that are otherwise
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                 pursuing decarbonization would cost 138%                     difficult to decarbonize even after switching to
                                                                                 more without the use of carbon capture.13 For                low-carbon electricity.

                                                                                 Figure 12. All major emitter facilities by industry and emissions

                                                                                    Emitting Facilities
                                                                                                          GAS POWER          PETROCHEMICALS
                                                                                           AMMONIA        PLANT
                                                                                                          GAS                PULP &
                                                                                           CEMENT
                                                                                                          PROCESSING         PAPER

                                                                                           CHEMICALS      HYDROGEN           REFINERIES

                                                                                           COAL POWER     METALS, MINERALS
                                                                                           PLANT                             STEEL
                                                                                                          & OTHER
                                                                                                          OTHER POWER
                                                                                           ETHANOL                           WASTE
                                                                                                          PLANT

                                                                                                                                                                  Figure authored by GPI based
                                                                                                                                                                  on data from EPA FLIGHT 2018.

14
Section 45Q Tax Credit                              an eligible project is ultimately used. Projects
Section 45Q of the US tax code provides             storing CO2 geologically through EOR, and
a performance-based tax credit for carbon           projects using CO2 or CO for other beneficial
capture projects that can be claimed when           uses, such as converting carbon emissions
an eligible project has securely stored the         into fuels, chemicals, or useful products like
captured carbon dioxide (CO2) in geologic           concrete, generate $35 per ton of CO2 stored
formations, such as deep saline formations          or utilized. Projects storing CO2 in other
and petroleum basins, or beneficially used          geologic formations and not used in EOR
captured CO2 or its precursor carbon                generate $50 per ton of CO2 stored.
monoxide (CO) as a feedstock to produce
fuels, chemicals, and products such as          This analysis focused on industrial and power
concrete in a way that results in emissions     facilities that would meet the minimum capture
reductions as defined by federal requirements.  thresholds for eligibility. It is important to note
                                                that eligible projects that begin construction
                                                                   within six years of the

                                                                                                        TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
IEA’s modeling estimates that more than                            FUTURE Act’s enactment (i.e.,
28 billion tons of CO2 must be captured                            before January 1, 2024) can
globally from industrial processes by 2060. claim the credit for up to 12
                                                                   years after being placed in
The availability of the newly expanded and      service. This timeline underscores the urgency
reformed 45Q tax credit reduces the cost        of this analysis, and of action on the part of
and risk to private capital of investing in the commercial entities and other stakeholders.
deployment of carbon capture technology
across a range of industries, including electric    APPROACH, DATA, AND TOOLS
power generation, ethanol and fertilizer            As summarized previously in this paper, this
production, natural gas processing, refining,       analysis relied on data and tools available from
chemicals production, and the manufacture of        federal institutions and national laboratories to
steel and cement.                                   study power and industrial facility operations,
                                                    geologic storage potential, and CO2 transport
Eligibility is extended to three categories of      routing and logistics.
carbon capture project, each with their own
threshold for eligibility: Projects capturing       Power and Industrial Facilities:
carbon for a beneficial use other than EOR          EPA FLIGHT and eGRID
are eligible if they capture between 25,000         Since 2010, the United States Environmental
500,000 metric tons of CO2/CO per year. All         Protection Agency (EPA) Greenhouse Gas
other industrial facilities (other than electric    Reporting Program (GHGRP) has collected
generating units), including direct air capture     and published greenhouse gas emissions
are eligible if they capture at least 100,000       data from large emitting facilities, suppliers
metric tons of CO2/CO per year. Electric            of fossil fuels, and industrial gases that result
generating units are eligible if they capture at    in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when
least 500,000 metric tons of CO2/CO per year.       used, and facilities that inject carbon dioxide
Meanwhile, the amount of credit generated           underground. Sources whose emissions
is determined by how the CO2 captured from          are equal to or surpass 25,000 metric tons

                                                                                                        15
of CO2 equivalent are required by law to            Opportunities for Long-Term Storage
                                                                                 submit emissions data to the GHGRP. In              of CO2: SCO2T Saline Data
                                                                                 total, EPA’s GHGRP gathers GHG data from            The Sequestration of CO2 Tool (SCO2T),
                                                                                 over 8,000 facilities.15 This data is published     created by Los Alamos National Laboratory
                                                                                 online as a resources called the EPA Facility       and Indiana University, provided nation-wide
                                                                                 Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool          assessment of geologic deep saline formations
                                                                                 (FLIGHT).                                           for CO2 storage potential.19 SCO2T compiles
                                                                                                                                     data from the USGS and the National Carbon
                                                                                 This analysis utilized EPA FLIGHT data              Sequestration Database and Geographic
                                                                                 to provide detailed information about the           Information System (NATCARB). NATCARB
                                                                                 emissions profile and other characteristics         is administered by the US DOE’s National
                                                                                 of emitter facilities in order to assess each       Energy Technology Laboratory and contains
                                                                                 emitter for potential carbon capture retrofit       data provided by several Regional Carbon
                                                                                 viability. This analysis did not consider smaller   Sequestration Partnerships (RCSP).
                                                                                 emitters that would not qualify for the 45Q
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                 tax credit, nor facilities that would suffer        SCO2T employs reduced-order models
                                                                                 scale diseconomies if application of capture        to calculate physical characteristics and
                                                                                 technology were to be retrofitted. Direct CO2       engineering estimates for drilling, injection,
                                                                                 emission levels were used to determine facility     and storage, such as well injection rate, CO2
                                                                                 eligibility for Section 45Q tax credits for CO2     plume area, and injection costs. A depiction
                                                                                 capture at minimum thresholds of 100,000            of SCO2T’s current data coverage (at the time
                                                                                 tons and 500,000 tons per year for industrial       of writing) for 10 km2 grid-cells is provided
                                                                                 and power facilities, respectively.16               in Figure 13, which reports relative storage
                                                                                                                                     potential for each geologic formation at each
                                                                                 These 45Q-eligible facilities and their process-    cell. The location, annual injection potential,
                                                                                 specific emissions were compiled into a             and estimated total injection and storage
                                                                                 database, against which a screening process         cost from SCO2T were primary inputs into
                                                                                 was applied based on facility operation,            the capture, storage, and transport modeling
                                                                                 production, energy use, heat rate, and other        conducted for this analysis.
                                                                                 factors. This screening process was intended
                                                                                 to identify potential near- and medium-term
                                                                                 facilities that might feasibly participate in
                                                                                 regional CO2 transport infrastructure networks
                                                                                 for capture and delivery of CO2 under today’s
                                                                                 market and policy context. The full screening
                                                                                 methodology, criteria, and cost components
                                                                                 are provided in the appendix of this document.
                                                                                 EPA’s Emissions & Generation Resource
                                                                                 Integrated Database (eGRID)17 provided unit-
                                                                                 and generator-specific operational data and
                                                                                 was supplemented by power plant information
                                                                                 from the proprietary ABB Ability Velocity
                                                                                 Suite.18

16
Figure 13: Relative CO2 storage potential by geologic formation and 10 km2 grid-cell
provided by SCO2T

                                                                                                           TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
            Very Low Storage Cost
                                                                                  Figure authored by GPI
            Low Storage Cost
                                                                                  based on data from
            Moderate to High Storage Cost                                         SCO2T and NATCARB.
            Not yet characterized

Storage potential and economic criteria              storage of tremendous amounts of CO2.
for CO2 injection at enhanced oil recovery           Figure 13 shows that deep saline formations
operations was provided by the Advanced              with CO2 storage potential exist throughout
Resources International, Inc. (ARI) proprietary      large areas of the US. Once injected into a
Big Oil Fields Database.20 This
database contains detailed                  North American CO2 storage potential
information on over 6,000 oil               is estimated to be as high as 22 trillion
reservoirs, accounting for over 75%         metric tons, enough to store nearly
of all oil expected to be ultimately        3,500 years of US CO2 emissions.
produced in the US through primary
and secondary recovery processes. The                saline formation, CO2 is secured by physical
database reports information on reservoir            and chemical trapping mechanisms. The
volume, cumulative oil production to-date of         IPCC reports that well-selected and managed
each reservoir, and remaining potential for          geologic sites are likely to retain over 99% of
injection and storage of CO2. Reservoir-specific     injected CO2 over 1,000 years. North American
data also includes key geologic properties and       CO2 storage potential alone is estimated to
existing field infrastructure and activities that    be as high as 22 trillion metric tons, which
could influence the performance of a CO2-EOR         could store nearly 3,500 years of US CO2
project.                                             emissions.21

Injection of CO2 into geologic reservoirs           As demonstrated in Figure 14, many potential
provides an opportunity for the permanent           candidates for carbon capture are co-located

                                                                                                           17
in areas of opportunity for geologic storage.          scale infrastructure that will later be used by
                                                                                 This allows capture facilities to permanently          expanded saline storage activity. While the
                                                                                 store CO2 with minimal transport and may               existing Section 45Q tax policy creates the
                                                                                 even allow facilities to inject CO2 on or near         opportunity for this, additional support or
                                                                                 their existing property. In contrast, many             low cost financing may be required to plan
                                                                                 industrial and power facilities are located            “supersized” CO2 transport infrastructure with
                                                                                 in areas without significant deep saline               capacity to take on additional volumes in the
                                                                                 formations. Any effort to meet decarbonization         future, rather than being fit for only a handful of
                                                                                 goals while maintaining production at these            near-term projects.
                                                                                 facilities will likely need regional scale transport
                                                                                 infrastructure to unlock delivery markets and          As shown in Figure 14, major US oil fields
                                                                                 economic value for captured CO2.                       are generally clustered in the Texas Gulf and
                                                                                                                                        Permian Basin of Western Texas and stretch
                                                                                 The current Section 45Q tax policy provides            up through the Western Plains and Northern
                                                                                 an incentive for long-term CO2 storage in              Rockies. There are also notable clusters in and
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                 both deep saline formations and hydrocarbon            around Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan. Of these
                                                                                 basins where EOR operations utilize CO2. The           oil fields, only some have sufficient demand for
                                                                                 US oil and gas industry has significant current        CO2 to create feasible economic conditions to
                                                                                 EOR operations that utilize millions of tons of        act as potential sites for CO2 storage through
                                                                                 naturally occurring CO2 per year from geologic,        CO2-EOR. Oil fields where CO2 demand would
                                                                                 rather than anthropogenic, sources. With               likely enable costs of transport and injection to
                                                                                 respect to EOR, Section 45Q can provide a              break even or create a profit were selected as
                                                                                 two-fold benefit. Not only does the tax credit         storage locations in our modeling scenarios.
                                                                                 create an incentive for EOR operators to               Overall, large-scale storage in oil fields would
                                                                                 switch from geologic CO2 to anthropogenic              require the establishment of sizeable trunk
                                                                                 CO2, it creates a market for source facilities         corridors, connecting regions with many CO2
                                                                                 to deliver captured CO2. This is especially            sources to regions with many oil fields and
                                                                                 helpful for potential source facilities located in     other geologic sinks.
                                                                                 areas without nearby deep saline formations.
                                                                                 The combination of existing market demand
                                                                                 and additional supportive tax incentives for
                                                                                 the utilization of anthropogenic CO2 provides               Maintaining industrial
                                                                                 near-term economic rationale to build regional              production while meeting
                                                                                 infrastructure for the transport of CO2.                    decarbonization targets
                                                                                 Because CO2 storage in deep saline incurs                   will require regional scale
                                                                                 a cost for drilling, injection, and monitoring,             transport infrastructure
                                                                                 it may be a difficult economic proposition to               to unlock delivery markets
                                                                                 build dedicated transport infrastructure without            and economic value for
                                                                                 the revenue from sales to EOR operations.
                                                                                                                                             captured CO2.
                                                                                 Thus, the purchase of CO2 for existing EOR
                                                                                 operations can effectively finance regional-

18
Figure 14. CO2 sources and oil fields with CO2 injection potential

                                                                                                                    TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
     POWER
     PLANT
                       EOR FIELD WITH
     INDUSTRIAL
                       CO2 DEMAND > $20/TON
     FACILITY
                       SALINE FORMATION
     SIZE OF PLANT

      EXISTING CO2
      PIPELINE
                                                                                    Figure authored by GPI based
                                                                                    on results from NATCARB, EPA.

Table 7. Storage potential in saline formations and EOR operations in study focus states

State                      Saline              EOR      State                    Saline             EOR
Alabama                  274,909.7               -      North Dakota           132,978.0            148.6
Arkansas                  18,111.3            106.4     Nebraska               51,580.9              28.8
Colorado                 123,441.8            163.2     New Mexico             122,968.2            515.4
Illinois                  74,294.9             130      Ohio                    8,801.0             119.4
Indiana                   59,738.1             10.2     Oklahoma               73,191.0            1,322.6
Kansas                    32,231.3            366.8     South Dakota            5,047.3              2.8
Kentucky                  40,460.8               -      Tennessee               1,468.3               -
Louisiana                660,992.5            1,096.2   Texas                 1,372,789.7          4,875.4
Michigan                  41,033.0             57.4     Utah                   84,077.4             395.6
Mississippi              414,287.9              98      Wyoming                611,222.2            522.6
Montana                  365,441.4            184.2     Table continued from previous
Million metric tons storage potential

                                                                                                                    19
Pipeline Routing, Logistics, and                  GPI worked with Los Alamos researchers
                                                                                 Scenario Development: SimCCS                      to accurately incorporate cost components
                                                                                 SimCCS, created by Los Alamos National            from NETL’s CO2 Transport Cost Model
                                                                                 Laboratory in collaboration with Indiana          into SimCCS, allowing the model to use
                                                                                 University and Montana State University, is an    comparative transport network cost estimates
                                                                                 open-source software tool for designing CO2       in real time while determining routes for CO2
                                                                                 capture, transport, and storage infrastructure.   transport.
                                                                                 This analysis utilized SimCCS 2.0, which
                                                                                 was released in January 2018, to determine        GPI also used the NETL CO2 Transport Cost
                                                                                 which power and industrial facilities would       Model to calculate in-depth cost results and
                                                                                 participate in an optimized capture network,      determine physical characteristics of CO2
                                                                                 which locations are best positioned for low       transport segments generated by SimCCS.
                                                                                 cost injection and storage, and importantly,      SimCCS reports the length and CO2 capacity
                                                                                 to find the most efficient network to connect     of each pipeline, allowing the NETL model to
                                                                                                                                   generate feasible diameters and a detailed
GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

                                                                                 CO2 sources to sinks. SimCCS 2.0 integrates
                                                                                 economic and geospatial considerations and        breakdown of investment required for capital
                                                                                 addresses critical parts of the CCS supply        construction, materials, labor, operation, and
                                                                                 chain simultaneously, identifying key cost        maintenance. The resulting cost per ton of
                                                                                 savings, revenue streams, and risks. SimCCS       CO2 transported for each segment is a crucial
                                                                                 minimizes the cost of CO2 transport routes        component in modeling the economics of
                                                                                 over a cost surface based on numerous             CO2 capture, transport, and storage, as it
                                                                                 layers of geographic information and right-of-    indicates the likely transport tariff that a seller
                                                                                 way concerns such as urban areas, bodies          or buyer would need to pay in order to deliver
                                                                                 of water, publicly-owned lands and natural        CO2 to storage locations. In general, cost per
                                                                                 resources, indigenous or tribal lands, and        ton of CO2 transported decreased as pipeline
                                                                                 existing infrastructure.                          diameter increased, given that more CO2 could
                                                                                                                                   be delivered with a greater-diameter pipeline.
                                                                                 To create an optimized pipeline network, the
                                                                                 model finds the shortest paths between all        Regional CO2 Capture and Storage
                                                                                 source and storage locations, while minimizing    Transport Networks
                                                                                 sharp angles in the routes and identifying the    To optimize the design of a regional CO2
                                                                                 least expensive infrastructure to meet user-      transport corridor suitable for economy-
                                                                                 specified capture goals. The model also allows    wide deployment, a series of scenarios
                                                                                 users to project solutions across multiple time   were devised that build out capture retrofits
                                                                                 periods, proposing early stage infrastructure     over time at industrial and power facilities.
                                                                                 development to meet longer term capacity          The datasets in Table 8 provided a range
                                                                                 needs.                                            of configurations for input data in these
                                                                                                                                   scenarios. The results from these scenarios
                                                                                 The US DOE’s NETL CO2 Transport                   were provided in the first summary section of
                                                                                 Cost Model was used to assess costs of            this paper and are discussed in more detail in
                                                                                 transporting CO2 between sources and sinks.22     the following pages.

20
Table 8. Primary input data sources per scenario

                         CAPTURE                       STORAGE                      TRANSPORT
                         Industrial and power          Deep saline geologic
 NEAR- AND MEDIUM-TERM

                         facilities within the study   formations with estimated
                         region identified as          injection and storage
                         near- or medium-term          costs of less than $5 per
                         opportunities for capture     metric ton.
                         retrofit.                     Data source: SCO2T, based
                         Data source: EPA              on NATCARB, RCSP,
                         FLIGHT 2018 screened          USGS.
                         for economic capture
                         opportunity.                  Petroleum basins: existing
                                                       operations with potential
                                                       demand for CO2 at oil

                                                                                                                TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE GREAT PLAINS INSTITUTE
                                                       prices of at least $40 per   Trunk and feeder line
                                                       barrel.                      route optimization and
                                                                                    capacity determination
                                                       Data source: ARI 2018.       performed by SimCCS.
                                                                                    Cost optimization and
                                                                                    calculation performed by
                                                                                    SimCCS based on costs
                                                                                    published in the NETL CO2
                                                                                    Transport Cost Model.
                         All US industrial and power   Deep saline geologic
 MIDCENTURY HORIZON

                         facilities with annual CO2    formations with estimated    Further cost components
                         emissions that qualify for    injection and storage        and financing
                         45Q.                          costs of less than $5 per    considerations calculated
                         Data source: EPA FLIGHT       metric ton.                  by the NETL CO2 Transport
                         2018 screened for 45Q         Data source: SCO2T, based    Cost Model based on
                         threshold emission levels.    on NATCARB, RCSP,            SimCCS output.
                                                       USGS.

                                                       Petroleum basins: existing
                                                       operations with potential
                                                       demand for CO2 at oil
                                                       prices of at least $60 per
                                                       barrel.
                                                       Data source: ARI 2018.

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