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LESSONS FOR COP26 The challenges and opportunities of Glasgow’s climate conference LEADING THE WAY PHILIP DUNNE MP GOOD TRADE IS GREENER TRADE EMILY THORNBERRY MP DELAY IS NOT AN OPTION CAROLINE LUCAS MP NOVEMBER 2021 | IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NOVEMBER 2021 | PROSPECT LESSONS FOR COP26 1
CONTENTS SERIOUS COMMITMENT
2 KEEPING 1.5C ALIVE
Will the UK prove it means business at COP26?
Bringing the global EMILY LAWFORD ASSISTANT EDITOR, PROSPECT
community together to fight
climate change
I
NICK BRIDGE
n early November, the UK and Italy our references to climate targets were quietly
3 GOOD TRADE IS will host the 26th United Nations dropped—show a missed opportunity to
GREENER TRADE Climate Change Conference of the demonstrate our seriousness. Our domestic
We have to do better to Parties in Glasgow—the fifth since policies may also damage our credentials
encourage more ethical deals COP21, where nearly every nation on on the international stage. On p15, Green
EMILY THORNBERRY earth pledged to work towards keeping the MP and former party leader Caroline
global temperature rise well below 2C (but Lucas accuses the government of “climate
6 OUR LAST CHANCE SALOON ideally below 1.5C) and to ratchet up their hypocrisy” for allowing continued oil and
The UK’s former chief contributions every five years. gas exploration in the North Sea. As David
scientific adviser on climate So what can we achieve in November? King, former chief scientific adviser, explains
diplomacy past and future Philip Dunne, who chairs the environmental on p6, when he negotiated at previous
EMILY LAWFORD audit committee, writes on p14 that the COPs, being able to demonstrate Britain’s
INTERVIEWS DAVID KING UK has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity own climate record was vital in getting other
to show climate leadership as host. But countries to increase their efforts.
10 IN NUMBERS: CITIES the government’s own actions must show Boris Johnson struck a sombre note in
AND CLIMATE its commitment is genuine. Shadow September, warning that countries must
international trade secretary Emily agree to make “substantial changes” to
14 LEADING THE WAY
Thornberry writes on p3 that our recent avoid further temperature rises. Let’s hope
Showcasing the UK’s trade deals—including with Australia, where he can make that happen in Glasgow.
climate leadership
PHILIP DUNNE
2 3
15 DELAY IS NOT AN OPTION
When it comes to climate
action, our government
only dithers
CAROLINE LUCAS
16 ACTION, NOT DIALOGUE
Reaching a global consensus
on climate may not help solve
the issue
NICK BUTLER
6 15
© PJP_DAILY / ALAMY STOCK PHOTO
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2 LESSONS FOR COP26 PROSPECT | NOVEMBER 2021
KEEPING 1.5C ALIVE
How the UK is bringing the global community together to tackle the climate crisis
NICK BRIDGE FOREIGN SECRETARY’S SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
© UNFCCC/FLICKR
W
e know the problem. We must shift to a sustainable negotiable commitment from donor countries in Paris was to help
world economy and stop destabilising our planetary deliver a global goal of mobilising $100bn per year from public and
ecosystems. If we succeed, we usher in a greener, private sources. This will support developing countries, maintain trust
healthier and wealthier future. If we don’t: between nations, and help leverage trillions of private sector dollars that
catastrophe. must switch to sustainable investment within a decade (see our Race
We have agreed to act. Under the Paris agreement of 2015, to Zero campaign).
virtually all countries agreed on the scale and urgency of the problem, Japan, Canada and Germany all put new money on the table
and committed to take the necessary steps to solve it. at the G7. At the United Nations General Assembly in September,
However, the commitments under the Paris agreement fall well the US committed to double its international climate finance to over
short of what is needed, and would lead to warming of well over 3C: $11bn a year by 2024. The UK preceded these pledges with a
probably the end of civilisation as we know it. doubling of climate finance to £11.6bn over the next five years. We
So at COP26 in Glasgow this November, the largest ever are not at the $100bn target yet, but we have moved significantly
gathering of world leaders on British soil, we must ratchet up the closer in recent weeks.
Paris commitments and “keep 1.5C alive.” In other words, the Ensuring that financial and other kinds of support get to where
world’s nations must revise their pollution targets across energy, they are needed is key. At the G7 this June, the UK, Germany and
industry, transport and food systems to limit the rise in average the US announced a scale-up of protection for the world’s most
global temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels (we are vulnerable communities. The UK and Germany committed almost a
already at 1.2C). quarter of a billion pounds to disaster risk finance programmes that
In the long term, cleaning up the world economy makes sense enable quicker responses when extreme weather and climate-linked
on all counts: for prosperity, security and environment. But getting disasters hit—from heatwaves and droughts causing poor harvest, to
there requires millions of shifts across communities and corporations flooding and hurricanes destroying homes and livelihoods.
globally, and at a scale and urgency that can only be achieved if world We are urging countries to support a Risk-informed Early Action
leaders send a strong enough collective signal to decisively shift world Partnership (REAP) to help make one billion people in small
opinion, investment flows and behaviour. holdings safer from disasters by 2025: by improving forecasting,
We have made significant progress in the months leading up to early warning systems and rapid responses. Just 24 hours’ warning
COP26. Since the UK became the first major industrial economy to of a coming storm or heatwave can cut ensuing suffering and
pass “net zero” greenhouse gas emissions legislation in 2019, we damage by around a third.
have received net zero emissions pledges from an astonishing 80 per Through the Adaptation Action Coalition (AAC), the UK—in
cent of the world economy. Critically, that needs to be matched in partnership with Egypt, Malawi, Bangladesh, the Netherlands, St
the near term by government pledges to roughly halve emissions by Lucia and the UN—will accelerate global action to achieve a climate
2030 (they are currently on track to go up). Done wisely, these cleaner resilient world by 2030. We’re calling on all countries who signed the
energy, transport, infrastructure and food system shifts reduce the cost UN’s 2019 Call for Action on Adaptation and Resilience to join the
of living and increase health and wellbeing for all. AAC, to contribute their experiences and inform the process.
Beyond reducing emissions, countries must also adapt to the Progress is being made, but too slowly. Much more focus and
climate change that is already locked in, and build resilience to commitment is needed before COP26, particularly from the G20
future environmental shocks. A key goal of COP26 is to support group of nations, to give hope to all communities and peoples. This
and empower countries and communities on the frontline of climate will drive our diplomacy in the critical weeks ahead, as we aim to
change to tackle its devastating effects. That requires finance. A non- create the momentum and collective will to keep 1.5C alive.
NOVEMBER 2021 | PROSPECT LESSONS FOR COP26 3
GOOD TRADE IS GREENER TRADE
When it comes to using trade to ask questions on climate, our government is sitting on its hands
EMILY THORNBERRY SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE
I
n early June, with Australian prime claims—the mechanism designed to
minister Scott Morrison set to arrive for protect corporations from government
the G7 summit, the Whitehall buzz was regulation—at a time when ISDS claims
of a grand bargain. Australia would get are wreaking havoc on the net zero plans
the access to Britain’s beef markets they of countries across the world. Take the
craved; but in return, the trade deal would decades-old energy charter treaty, whose
bind them into serious new commitments ISDS provisions have recently been used to
on climate change, a major achievement resist Dutch plans to phase out coal power,
for Boris Johnson in what he’d called the as well as Italian proposals to restrict
government’s year of global leadership. offshore extraction.
The G7 came and went. Johnson Again, Truss had a golden opportunity
nudged elbows with Morrison on a draft to lead global efforts to exclude fossil fuel
deal the following week with plenty to say investments from the treaty. Again, she
on beef, but precious little on climate. And chose to ignore it.
a month later, we subsequently discovered, The same is true of carbon border tax
UK ministers bowed to Australian pressure proposals, designed to make the goods
and removed all references to targets. After we import reflect their climate costs as
this latest act of climate recalcitrance was much as those we produce at home.
revealed, Morrison was unapologetic: “In While other governments are wrestling
trade agreements, I deal with trade issues.” The British government has quietly dropped any with this complex challenge, Truss and her
The lack of resolve and collapse of reference to climate pledges in its latest trade deal colleagues refused to engage, despite the
ambition from the UK government when with Australia, despite earlier promises UK importing more carbon emissions per
it came to tying Australia’s trade access to head than any other G7 country.
climate progress came as a disappointment with not one word of new language on the Britain needs a government willing
and a shock to many environmental environment, biodiversity or climate, and to use trade policy as a force for good. A
groups. For me, it was neither. I have spent not a single update to reference the Paris government that challenges the orthodoxy
more than a year watching Liz Truss—the agreement. Rather than establishing a that commercial interests trump climate
previous secretary of state for international reputation as COP26 pioneers, under action, a government that works with like-
trade—throw away every opportunity she Truss the department earned the Whitehall minded countries to promote trade in green
had to take action on climate through trade. nickname “Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V”—the ministry of technology—and says that access to our
No surprise at all for someone who hired copy and paste. market goes hand-in-hand with a basic set
Tony Abbott as her adviser. Nor is its record any better on brand of environmental responsibilities.
Abbott, one of Morrison’s predecessors, new agreements. An enhanced agreement With the right leadership, we could
invented the “trade agreements are for trade with Japan contained no enhancement advance these issues on the global stage,
issues” mantra. In 2017, he boasted that on climate. Australia we know about. both at COP26 and beyond. But to date,
Australia’s success in trade negotiations What progress there may be with New that leadership has been missing. The trade
was down to ensuring “we weren’t side- Zealand is down entirely to Jacinda department is just for trade issues, and they
tracked by peripheral issues such as... Ardern’s government. do not recognise climate change as one of
environmental standards.” Now that Then we have its flagship goal, those. Right now, it is misguided for any
hallmark of Australian policy has consumed membership of the Trans-Pacific government agency to think climate change
the UK’s Department for International Trade. Partnership (CPTPP). In April, I asked is not their concern, but at the Department
From 2019 onwards, the department Truss what objectives she would pursue of International Trade—with its range of
negotiated rollover deals with 67 non-EU in her accession negotiations to boost responsibilities—it is downright dangerous.
countries, designed to maintain preferential trade in green technology and strengthen It is not too late for the government to
trade post-Brexit. In 2020, such was their the agreement’s climate provisions. Her set out an ambitious green trade agenda
scramble to secure these deals, the UK answer: not a single one. for COP26. But a change in personnel is
© PICTURE CAPITAL / ALAMY STOCK PHOTO
signed three quarters of the agreements Joining the CPTPP without demands not enough—it will require an equally
registered with the WTO. of our own could seriously damage our rapid change in attitudes. Truss has now
It was a historic opportunity to update climate ambitions. By the government’s been replaced as international trade
each deal to reflect today’s climate realities own admission, the deal could torpedo secretary by Anne-Marie Trevelyan, whose
and our net zero goals, showing the world attempts to foster our electric car battery past statements before becoming an MP
how serious and ambitious we were about industry and instead bolster already include: “we aren’t getting hotter, global
our leadership role at COP26. Instead, we dominant producers, like Japan. warming isn’t actually happening” in April
got trade agreements with 67 countries It would also increase our exposure 2012. I won’t hold those words against her,
near identical to the EU deals they replaced, to Investor-state Dispute Settlement as long as we now get some action.
4 ADVERTORIAL
HOW FINANCE IS ACCELERATING
THE TRANSITION TO NET ZERO
Showing the world that sustainability means good business
funds to the global south, which had contributed least
to global emissions. There was a recognition that those
developing countries faced the additional challenge of
having to develop without the benefit of fossil fuels,
which were the cheapest form of energy at the time.
The idea was that this finance, in part, would help to
address this imbalance. The Paris agreement codified
the concept. A lot of work has been done to identify these
JAMES CLOSE flows of finance and to see where we are today, which is
HEAD OF CLIMATE around $80bn per year. It’s really important that those
CHANGE, NATWEST promises are kept. There is still a gap to be closed.
GROUP
THE $100BN PER ANNUM IS MAINLY PUBLIC
FINANCE. HOW DOES PRIVATE FINANCE SIT
GLASGOW REQUIRES A RATCHET UP FROM PARIS. ALONGSIDE THAT?
HOW ARE WE DOING ON THE NDC (NATIONALLY It’s technically a combination of both, but the essence
DETERMINDED CONTRIBUTIONS) SUBMISSIONS? of that $100bn is that it is highly concessional. The
The point that we’re at now is the place where we were $100bn is nowhere near enough to achieve its two
intended to be when the Paris agreement was conceived. objectives: to reduce the carbon emissions from new
The idea was that in five years—which turned out to be power generation, and to mitigate against the damage
six, due to the pandemic—countries would re-submit done by the climate change that has already happened.
their NDCs with greater ambition; ambitions driven by We need to turn those billions into trillions. That’s where
the reduced cost of the technologies that will drive the private finance comes in. It can help emerging markets
transition, the science that is telling us about the urgency and developing economies develop resilient infrastructure
of climate action and also the increased awareness of that protect against changing temperatures and rising
citizens to the challenges we face, and their willingness sea levels, and to help decarbonise those economies as
to be part of it. quickly as possible.
All those conditions are in place. What’s disappointing
at the minute is that those NDC submissions, according NATWEST IS A FOUNDER MEMBER OF GFANZ
to the UN Synthesis Report, are leading us to an increase (GLASGOW FINANCIAL ALLIANCE FOR NET ZERO).
in emissions (from 2010) of around 16 per cent by WHY IS GFANZ IMPORTANT?
2030, when we need to halve emissions by 2030 to get Mobilising money towards a net zero future requires an
to net zero by 2050. alignment between all financial actors. It is important to
It is still, however, all to play for. Some of the big bring the weight of money that sits with asset owners such
emitters can shift the dial quite dramatically if they put as pension funds and insurance companies together with
ambitious NDCs forward. the people who translate our savings into investments, like
fund managers, and the banks that support businesses.
ONE OF THE OTHER OBJECTIVES IS AROUND The aggregation of financiers through GFANZ means that
DELIVERING PROMISES, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO the whole sector is working together and facing in the
CLIMATE FINANCE. WHY IS THIS SO IMPORTANT? same direction, away from short-termism and towards
At COP15 in Copenhagen, the global north—countries climate action and carbon reduction.
that had benefited greatly from the growth that was
responsible for a huge proportion of the emissions going HOW DO YOU SEE THE NARRATIVE FOR COP?
into the atmosphere—made a commitment to transfer The interesting thing about the narrative is that it has
© LESLEY ADAMS/ALAMY STOCK PHOTO
ADVERTORIAL 5
always been about the cost of the transition, because fossil help them not only reduce their emissions, but to also
fuels were cheaper than renewables. In the years since Paris help them take advantage of the opportunities that the
that narrative has flipped. Once the investment in renewables transition to net zero brings.
has taken place the energy they produce is effectively free. We also want to showcase some of our customers
This is an opportunity to take advantage of the significant who have been doing amazing work—to show what’s
amounts of additional financing and convert it into lower possible, and how a bank can lead and enable its
cost, cleaner energy. I think the narrative is one of finance customers to be at the forefront of this transition, and
enabling an accelerated transition. to take advantage of it as well. All in all, we’re really
excited to see what we can contribute to COP.
WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR NATWEST?
For us it’s a huge opportunity to be part of the transition and WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR YOUR CUSTOMERS?
to finance it for the UK, which has got some very ambitious That they can understand where they are today in
targets. In order to take advantage of that opportunity we terms of their ambitions by looking at their existing
need to demonstrate that we’re a credible player. We have carbon footprint and how that aligns with the overall
put our own house in order and are now net zero across objective towards net zero.
our own direct operations. We are reducing our emissions For our bigger customers, we’re there to help them
across our estate, which has given us access to some tap into the capital markets. There’s a weight of ESG
great technology and reduced running costs; we’ve offset and green money sitting there, looking to be deployed
our residual emissions to the point that we are at net zero into the new technologies that are going to make the
now. The big part of our business is of course our financed transition viable. It’s an exciting time for them and it’s
emissions. We have declared that we want to halve an exciting time for us.
the climate impact of our financing by 2030. To do that
we’ve analysed where our emissions sit on the balance YOU’RE LAUNCHING YOUR SPRINGBOARD FOR
sheet today so that we can work out what to do with them SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS AT COP26. WHY IS THIS
in the future. IMPORTANT?
We can use the knowledge that we now have to Our research shows that 86 per cent of businesses
work with our customers and look at decarbonising their want to do something about sustainability, but around
businesses and investments, as well as having the ability half of them don’t know where to start. This report will
to form great partnerships. Partnership-thinking, clarity give them a very clear case as to why sustainability and
of direction and the willingness to work with customers climate action is going to be good for their business. It
through the changes gives us a really positive direction of will also give them examples of tools and materials that
travel to take advantage of this transition. they can access that are going to help them set in place
the strategies, and give them the support that they need
HOW CAN NATWEST SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT’S to operationalise them, as well as look to access the
OBJECTIVES AS COP-PRESIDENT DESIGNATE? finance that will enable them to grow.
The UK has a tremendous challenge to use global diplomacy
in a way that makes COP26 a success. As principal banking HOW DOES ACTION ON THE GROUND SUPPORT
sponsor, we are able to demonstrate that, as a UK bank, THE AMBITIONS OF DELIVERING THE PARIS
we can support the UK’s ambitions to drive this transition AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THE INCREASED
rapidly through the goals that the government has set. We AMBITION THAT MOVES US TOWARDS NET ZERO?
can also demonstrate our ability to build partnerships and The top-down trajectory that was set by Paris through
momentum, particularly with some of the harder to abate the NDCs needs to be matched by the bottom-up
sectors. For example, we are working with British Gas, action that takes place in every single household; every
Shelter and Worcester Bosch in a coalition around reducing single buying decision; every single business activity
emissions for buildings. As a leading mortgage provider it that takes place on a day-to-day basis. We, through
gives us an opportunity to demonstrate what we can do to our role as a provider of finance, bringing our expertise
help, and to see what support we need from government to and advice, we can help our customers do their bit and
send those long-term policy signals. play their part in delivering the global ambition. We’re
all part of a system that needs to work together, both
WHAT ARE YOUR OBJECTIVES FOR COP? from the top-down to set the ambition, and from the
First, to demonstrate that finance has an important role to bottom-up to drive the action. That’s where we think
play in the transition, and that we are willing to bring our the real dynamism can come from COP26, as we all
skills, expertise and balance sheet to that transition. The come together to deliver the ambition of staying as a
second objective is to demonstrate that we’re here to support 1.5C world, ensuring that we have a sustainable planet
our customers. It is vital that they know that we are here to for us all to live on.
6 LESSONS FOR COP26 PROSPECT | NOVEMBER 2021
DAVID KING: “THIS IS OUR
LAST CHANCE SALOON”
The UK’s former chief scientific adviser reflects on what went wrong with climate
diplomacy in the past—and how, at Glasgow, the stakes will be higher than ever
DAVID KING INTERVIEWED BY EMILY LAWFORD
J
ust before COP15 in 2009, Greenpeace declared country volunteered what they thought was easy to do.
that any deal struck in Copenhagen should be But nevertheless, that was the only way we could get
“nothing short of a plan to save the planet.” But agreement.”
the chief achievement of the negotiations then was In Paris, 195 nations agreed that global heating must
merely the “recognition” that global temperatures not exceed more than 2C, compared to pre-industrial
should not surpass 2C above pre-industrial levels—a huge levels—with an aim, if possible, to keep it below 1.5C.
disappointment to climate advocates. King, who advocated for the 1.5 target in 2015, believes
“We couldn’t get an agreement,” says David King, the now that the current global temperature—around 1.25—
UK’s former lead negotiator and chief scientific adviser. is “already too much.”
“The reason was that the United States Congress had never “COP21 set a target, but the countries have been very
voted for action on climate change. President Obama could poor at managing their own production processes, even to
not accept an agreement, set by an international body meet what they promised,” he says. “So the situation has
and binding on the United States, without approval from gotten a whole lot worse since Paris, because the amount
Congress.” of greenhouse gas is going up to what I consider to be an
China had already said before COP that if the US unmanageable level.” The stakes could not be higher for
would not sign a binding agreement, neither would it. the Glasgow summit in November, he says. “This is very
“Clearly, there was not going to be any progress,” King much a last chance saloon.”
says. After Copenhagen a group of negotiators, including COP26 needs to focus heavily on rapid emissions
King, pushed for a way which would allow Obama to sign reduction—but it should also have wider climate goals.
an agreement without needing approval from Congress. “Even if we were to stop emissions tomorrow, we wouldn’t
By 2015 they found a solution. “We said, ‘Let’s have a solve the problems that have already begun irreversibly,”
simple process in which every county volunteers its own King says. “We have upset the balance of our climate
contribution to the reduction of emissions.’” system in the northern hemisphere—hence all these
The Paris agreement, made at COP21, requested all extreme weather events.”
parties to produce their own plans for reducing emissions The Centre for Climate Repair, which King chairs,
to meet the net zero carbon goal—and to update those advocates a three-pronged climate approach that he calls
nationally determined contributions every five years. the “three Rs”: reducing emissions, removing greenhouse
“COP21 was the most successful meeting of the United gases from the atmosphere and repairing the Arctic Circle.
Nations Framework Convention since it began in 1992— “That’s a comprehensive strategy to create a manageable “Everyone wants to
there’s no question about that,” King tells me. future for humanity on earth.” be on the side of the
But the agreement was far from perfect. “I’ve got to He is optimistic about the potential for countries to powerful”: delegates
tell you that some of those nations were cheating. For make greater climate commitments this November. at 2015’s COP, which
them, [after COP21] it was really business as usual. “It’s almost impossible to get an agreement on anything paved the way for the
Australia was one of those. And that’s the weak part. Every if it isn’t led by the United States. But for the first time ever, Paris agreement
© UNFCCC/FLICKR
NOVEMBER 2021 | PROSPECT LESSONS FOR COP26 7
we’ve got a real possibility that the US and China, together with will have reduced our emissions by 78 per cent [below
the European Union, could play the leadership role in COP26. 1990 levels]—way ahead of any other country in the
I think these areas of the world are very committed to action on world.”
climate change under their present leadership. The opportunity But while our targets may be impressive, we are not
is there. yet close to meeting them. King cites the Climate Change
“If they pushed for a full agreement, it would be carried Committee, which released a damning analysis of the
through. Everyone wants to be on the side of the powerful. government’s efforts to reach its target of 78 per cent
Even Australia would follow the United States.” (emissions are currently down by about 50 per cent).
His concern, however, is that the west risks jeopardising “What they said was, unless the government introduces
collective climate action by criticising China’s other a coherent series of policies, we’re not going to achieve
policies—in particular, towards Hong Kong and its Uighur anything like that 2035 target.”
population. “Frankly, being critical of China does nothing to Our domestic climate policies are crucial for
change Chinese policy—it’s a bit of trumpeting for your own international efforts, King adds. “When I was negotiating,
audience. It’s a luxury we cannot afford. If the United States I could go from country to country and say, ‘This is what
and Britain go on criticising China, we are in danger of losing Britain is doing. What are you going to do?’ We want to
the battle over climate change.” be an example to every other country.”
King believes that Britain, which in 2008 became the Britain can successfully demonstrate that reducing
first country in the world to get an all-party agreement on emissions per person has not harmed our economy. “The
climate change, is well-suited to push for a new agreement switchover to renewable energy has been amazingly
as the host nation of COP26. “I think it’s fair to say, since painless,” King says. “We have the biggest offshore wind
1997, Britain is the country that has been leading the way industry in the world, and the most efficient.”
in climate actions as well as climate negotiations. During But King still fears that Glasgow could be another
my time with Tony Blair [as chief scientific adviser], we created Copenhagen. “The naysayers in this whole discussion
165 climate experts in our embassies around the world. No have been led in the past by the United States, and then
other country had any. And that meant our ambassadors all by Saudi Arabia and Australia. The question is whether
understood this was a priority. We wanted to set an example.” the naysayers hold sway. What we need to see is that
In the run-up to the conference, Boris Johnson has coal, oil and gas stay in the ground, and they become of
been working to encourage other countries to reach a deal zero value in a zero-carbon society.”
in Glasgow that would, ideally, soon end the use of coal— Since Paris, the situation has only got more urgent.
as well as ensure that developed countries make a greater “Time is no longer on our side. That is the big difference
financial commitment to helping poorer nations manage between all the previous, painfully slow negotiations,
climate change and its adverse effects. when we tried to listen to every voice from 197 nations to
“The most important thing the prime minister did in relation get an agreement… We no longer have that luxury. What
to COP26, in my view, was make a very clear statement at the we set in train over the next five years will determine the
G7 meeting this year,” King says. “He said that by 2035 we future of humanity for the next few millennia.”
8 ADVERTORIAL
THE CHALLENGES TO ACHIEVING
NET ZERO BY 2050
Transport has a crucial part to play in decarbonising our energy supplies
SUJITH KOLLAMTHODI DIRECTOR OF STRATEGY AND INNOVATION FOR RICARDO ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
T
he UK prime minister Boris Johnson has However, it is not enough to simply shift from one
described COP26, the climate summit taking energy source to another. Fundamentally, a genuine
place in Glasgow in November, as the “turning modal shift is required that will most likely require each of
point for humanity.” He has exhorted world us to ask the question: are our journeys really necessary?
leaders to take responsibility for curbing global The UK may have seen a 13 per cent reduction in the
warming by making commitments in four key areas: coal, number of trips undertaken by car drivers since 2002, but
cars, cash and trees. The transport sector has a critical congestion still costs the UK economy £6.9bn per year—
role to play, if this ambition to stave off future temperature in addition to the negative impacts on health and the
rises is ultimately to be achieved. environment. According to the ONS, at the height of the
Road vehicles account for nearly 75 per cent of the Covid-19 pandemic in April 2020, 46.6 per cent of people
total emissions from the transport sector, so clearly a in employment within the UK did some work at home—
major focus on reducing emissions from road transport of whom 86 per cent did so as a result of the pandemic.
will be needed. However, emissions from shipping and As restrictions have eased, some businesses have given
aviation have risen in previous years; without action, employees greater flexibility about where they work. This
these are projected to increase substantially between has added a new dimension to the debate about the need
now and 2050, so measures for addressing these for private car ownership for commuting, in contrast to
transport modes will also be important. more sustainable modes or mobility sharing.
Reducing emissions from transport requires a shift When it comes to the movement of people and goods,
away from fossil fuels to a much wider range of more it is clear that what is required is access to a range of
sustainable sources of energy with a lower carbon impact. vehicles suited to different purposes depending on the
A 2020 report by Ricardo for the European commission, journey type. The last 18 months have seen an increase
“Determining the Environmental Impacts of Conventional in light van traffic and new leasing solutions for last-mile
and Alternatively Fuelled Vehicles Through Lifecycle delivery, including ultra-lightweight electric cargo vehicles
Assessment,” examined the full lifecycle impacts of the and bikes, that are not based on upfront purchase and
different types of road vehicles and fuels available now ownership. Similarly, C40, a charity and network of the
and in the coming decades. The key findings were world’s megacities committed to addressing climate
that electric vehicles are already less damaging to the change, has argued that cities with the most successful
environment than vehicles powered by fossil fuels. transport strategies are prioritising the movement of people,ADVERTORIAL 9
driving a modal shift from private vehicle use to a combination tens of thousands of premature deaths from air pollution
of public transport, walking and cycling. The mayor of London’s avoided. The report also stated that such improvements
2018 transport strategy set a target of 80 per cent of all trips in in air quality are achievable in future, if stringent
the city to be made by walking, cycling or public transport by emission control policies are adopted—a challenge for
2041, up from 65 per cent today. governments, authorities and agencies to embed cleaner,
Around 98 per cent of the energy used to power the safer transport behaviours in the long term.
global transport sector derives from crude oil. This will not Another factor to bear in mind is that CO2 emissions
be replaced by a single sustainable energy source, but by a from UK electricity generation fell by 48 per cent in
mix that includes electricity, hydrogen, sustainable biofuels the five years between 2016 and 2021, in part due to
and green ammonia. coal being replaced by gas and renewables. An electric
Ricardo is involved in many projects exploring the car purchased five years ago will now generate lower
potential of alternative energy sources for transport. First is total emissions due to ongoing decarbonisation of the
the Project Fresson consortium, led by Cranfield Aerospace electricity generation sector. Further reductions in these
Solutions, which is exploiting recent advances in hydrogen emissions are likely to continue as more renewable
fuel cell technology to develop a commercially viable, electricity becomes available—something impossible
retrofit powertrain solution for the nine-passenger Britten- with petrol or diesel vehicles.
Norman Islander aircraft. Secondly is Riding Sunbeams, a In the current era of rapid technological development
project demonstrating that solar PV panels can be installed and transition, multiple solutions will co-exist. For new
by railway lines and connected directly to electrified track light-duty vehicles, it is clear that internal combustion
to provide traction power for trains, bypassing the grid engines have a limited lifetime remaining, as numerous
completely. Solar traction power could provide at least one- governments around the world introduce proposals to
tenth of the energy needed to power trains on the UK’s direct phase out this technology. For heavier transport modes
current electrified routes every year. where internal combustion engines will remain in use
In addition to greenhouse gas reductions, electrification for some time to come, they will increasingly integrate
of road transport brings significant air quality benefits, with electrified technologies and even full electric propulsion
reductions in levels of major pollutants including nitrogen systems. Furthermore, transport fuels will integrate novel
dioxide (NO2)—implicated in asthma, chronically reduced energy resources, such as advanced biofuels and new
lung function and other respiratory illnesses—and fine synthetic pathways. At Ricardo, we are experts in using
particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) which can worsen lifecycle assessment (LCA) techniques to compare the
conditions such as asthma and heart disease, and even be a overall environmental burdens of each solution, taking
contributing factor of lung cancer. into account the production, use and disposal phases of
Vehicle tailpipe emissions will greatly reduce with more vehicles and fuels.
widespread use of EVs. Some non-exhaust emissions, Crucially, moving from measuring tailpipe emissions
for example from braking, may also reduce due to the to an approach based on assessing the full lifecycle
regenerative braking system deployed in EVs (though others, environmental burdens of options for the transport
such as tyre wear emissions, remain an issue). sector makes it clear: there are solutions in addition to
Reduced traffic levels as a result of restrictions on electrification that can contribute to the decarbonisation of
human and business activity during lockdowns across the transport. As an environmental, engineering and strategic
world showed how air quality can improve. A report in the consulting company supporting the decarbonisation of
Lancet noted that lockdown interventions led to substantial the global transport and energy sectors, Ricardo is well
reductions in PM2.5 concentrations in China and Europe, with placed to advance this holistic approach.10 LESSONS FOR COP26 PROSPECT | NOVEMBER 2021
IN NUMBERS:
CITIES AND CLIMATE
Why cities matter in the fight against climate change
DAVID McALLISTER PROSPECT
I
n his book Building and Dwelling, the LSE professor
and urbanist Richard Sennett writes: “the built
environment is one thing, how people dwell in
it another.” That’s doubly true when it comes to
how we think about our cities in the fight against
climate change. Many of Britain’s cities first appeared NORTHERN AMERICA 82%
during the Industrial Revolution, when city life was
dominated by the demands of mass production and
the rapid expansion of heavy industry. The hallmarks of
this heritage remain today: those attending COP26 at
Glasgow’s exhibition centre will see the Finnieston Crane
right beside them on the Clyde, a testament to the city’s
proud history of shipbuilding.
On the one hand, the whole world is still living under
the shadow of that era. The pull of city life and its promise
of secure employment and a better life is as strong as ever. Mexico City 5
A 2018 report published by the United Nations estimates
that half of the globe’s entire population now resides in
cities; by 2050, that number is set to be closer to two-
thirds, with much of the increase in Asia and Africa. By
2030, the world is expected to have 43 “megacities”— LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN 81%
that is, cities with 10m inhabitants or more.
But on the other hand, how we “dwell” in these urban
realms has gone through some enormous changes over
the centuries—we might see the Finnieston Crane, but
few of us in the developed world equate city life with
heavy industry anymore. And things will have to change
even further still, if we are to stand any hope of reaching
net zero as set out by the Paris agreement—also by 2050. São Paulo 4
Unsurprisingly, cities also matter because of the
disproportionate strain they place on our climate. UN
Habitat estimates that, although they cover only 2 per
cent of the earth’s surface, cities account for 60 per cent
of greenhouse gas emissions, while at the same time
taking up 78 per cent of all energy consumption. Those
statistics might not seem surprising, but they should
drive home just how big the task at hand really is. For the
foreseeable future, the expansion of our cities is all but
inevitable—and yet we can’t afford to let them expand in
the way they’ve always done.
So how might our cities adapt? This is the challenge
governments everywhere have been trying to tackle, but
few (if any) have thus far come up with solutions that go KEY
far enough. One thing is certain, however. Thirty years from
now, urban life will not be the same—just as it was not Total percentage of the population
50%
the same thirty years before. The question is whether we who live in cities
decide to take control of what those changes might be.
Locations of the world’s top
6
10 megacities (10m+ inhabitants)
SOURCES: UNITED NATIONS, “2018 REVISION OF WORLD URBANIZATION PROSPECTS”
PRODUCED BY THE POPULATION DIVISION OF THE UN DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND
SOCIAL AFFAIRS (UN DESA) AND “CITIES AND POLLUTION” VIA THE UN CLIMATE ACTION BLOGNOVEMBER 2021 | PROSPECT LESSONS FOR COP26 11
URBAN SPRAWL
Today, half of the global population live in cities. By 2050—the target for net zero emissions, as set out
in the Paris agreement—that figure will be closer to two-thirds, with 90 per cent of growth in Asia and Africa
EUROPE 74%
8 Beijing
ASIA 50%
1 Tokyo
10 Osaka
New Delhi 2
Cairo 6 3 Shanghai
9 Dhaka
Mumbai 7
AFRICA 43%
OCEANIA 68%
THE WORLD’S CITIES IN THREE NUMBERS
With their disproportionate consumption of resources, cities loom especially
large in any conversation about the human impacts of climate change
78% 60% 2%
of global energy of global greenhouse of the
consumption gas emissions Earth’s surface12 ADVERTORIAL
THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT
MUST UNITE AHEAD OF COP26
The sector can—and must—scale up capabilities and become
a transformative force in reaching net zero
The RIBA’s latest report produced in partnership with
Architects Declare, “Built for the Environment,” looks at
how the sector can—and must—scale up capabilities
and become a transformative force in reaching net zero.
The report shows how the built environment can operate
within planetary limits and calls on the entire sector—
and the governments and policymakers who regulate
it—to ensure their actions reflect the severity of the
situation ahead of COP26.
Despite its huge potential for reducing global carbon
ALAN VALLANCE emissions, the lack of specific mitigation policies for the
CHIEF EXECUTIVE, RIBA built environment is cause for serious concern. “Built for
the Environment” calls on every country to set specific,
W
holistic, consumption-based built environment sector
e cannot deny the link between actions within their Nationally Determined Contributions
rising man-made greenhouse gas (NDCs). Disappointingly, only slightly over two-thirds
(GHG) emissions and climate change of NDCs mention buildings, and a significantly smaller
acceleration, and we know that global proportion mention energy efficiency or building codes.
temperatures will rise by more than
1.5C and 2C during the century unless deep reductions WHY DOES THIS MATTER?
occur over the next few decades. In 2010, I visited the Today, over a quarter (28 per cent) of global energy-
rather appropriately named Cape Grim on the northwest related GHG emissions come from operating buildings,
coast of Tasmania, Australia, home to one of a handful including (but not limited to) their heating and cooling
of the world’s atmospheric pollution monitoring stations. systems, electricity use and plumbing systems. And
The station monitors in real-time the level of carbon in a further 10 per cent of global energy-related GHG
the atmosphere. At the time the monitor read 386 parts emissions are attributable to materials and products
per million (ppm). In August 2021 that figure was 412 used in the construction, maintenance and disposal of
ppm, and every single measurement in that time has buildings. This is known as embodied carbon.
been higher than the previous. But what does this mean In many parts of the world, building codes are not
specifically for the built environment? As a sector, we’re only entirely missing from NDCs; they don’t exist at
responsible for approximately 38 per cent of global GHG all. And, where they do exist, they leave out significant
emissions, and we therefore have a pivotal role to play. emissions sources, such as embodied carbon. As the
There are roughly 255bn m2 of buildings in the world electricity and gas grid continues to decarbonise, the
today—and that number grows by around 5.5bn m2 every embodied carbon emissions of most new buildings
year. We are building the equivalent of a new city the size created between now and 2050 will be greater than
of Paris every week. Urgent doesn’t cut it anymore. those emissions released through energy use during the
© JENNIFER PILLINGER / ALAMY STOCK PHOTOADVERTORIAL 13
building’s lifetime. But even despite this, embodied carbon serious about attempting to limit global warming to 1.5C
is almost entirely unregulated. Current legislation focuses by 2030, then we must use our professional experience
almost exclusively on the energy use of new buildings, but and expertise to deliver buildings that match this ambition.
disappointingly makes no attempt to regulate the building’s The 2030 Climate Challenge provides a concise set
actual energy use. Instead, legislation focuses on predicted of voluntary targets for energy use, embodied carbon and
energy consumption allowing the industry to continue to rely water use; and they’re provided as means of stimulating
on unverified data. Without country-specific building codes debate as well as innovation, to encourage industry-
that regulate both operational and embodied emissions, with wide participation to limit the impacts of new and major
specific guidance for both new and existing buildings, we’re retrofit projects.
fighting a losing battle. It’s true that architects have the skills and knowledge
It’s not all about new buildings, though. We must also to drive this change, but they cannot do it alone. The
prioritise the re-use of existing buildings wherever that might entire sector must work together to upskill itself and
be possible. It’s true that the most effective way to avoid scale up its capabilities to win this fight. We must shift
embodied carbon emissions is to refurbish, retrofit, and towards interdisciplinary education and practice, commit
extend the lives of existing buildings, instead of bulldozing to reporting successes and sharing lessons learned, and
and starting from scratch. If we reduce the demand for new constantly challenge current methods and approaches
buildings by 20 per cent, we could save up to 12 per cent of to align with sustainable goals. As a sector, we have the
global emissions in the sector. tools, knowledge and technology to address the climate
And for that small minority of countries that already have and biodiversity emergency. The challenge is to deploy
building codes and built environment sector actions within them at the speed and scale necessary.
their NDCs, their ambition must be increased, and their
figures aligned with net zero and science-based targets. WHAT’S NEXT?
On 28th and 29th October we’re hosting the Built
WHAT’S THE SOLUTION? Environment Summit—an opportunity for the sector
Unfortunately, NDCs and building codes won’t solve the to unite ahead of COP26. The Summit will provide a
problem alone. Alongside effective regulations, we also platform for speakers from across the globe, who will
need to transform the policies that affect planning and lead topical discussions, explore and share innovative
permitting systems, enhance public procurement procedures practice, and encourage system-wide thinking to tackle
and introduce relevant grants and incentives. Subnational the climate crisis. It will demonstrate the importance of
governments, including cities and regions, must also play their cross-industry collaboration to harness political support
part. Regional-specific policy—informed by local expertise and and embolden governments to work with the built
insight—can help drive forward connected priorities, such as environment sector to decarbonise construction.
creating future-proofed housing, and accelerate the transition The built environment is an expression of our values
to a decarbonised economy. and has a fundamental impact on every aspect of our
On all levels, we must adopt a broader focus on both lives. We all have a responsibility to take concerted action
mitigation and adaptation to the climate emergency—and to improve buildings—to bring about an end to homes
these must happen in tandem. Nature-based solutions and that overheat, homes that leak, to reduce fuel poverty,
traditional ecological knowledge, wisdom and technologies improve air quality and ensure we create places and
are central to both. Concerningly, adaptation for buildings spaces for communities to thrive.
to changing climates tends to focus on problems related to
increasing temperatures, neglecting the changes required for The Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) is
colder climates and more extreme rain or winds. a global professional membership body driving
To help our members respond to the climate emergency, excellence in architecture. We serve our members and
in 2019 we launched the RIBA 2030 Climate Challenge. It’s society in order to deliver better buildings and places,
been designed to encourage architects and the wider industry stronger communities and a sustainable environment.
to shift towards outcome-based performance targets—targets Being inclusive, ethical, environmentally aware and
that are required to radically decarbonise buildings. If we are collaborative underpins all that we do14 LESSONS FOR COP26 PROSPECT | NOVEMBER 2021
LEADING THE WAY
As host of COP26, the UK has a rare opportunity to showcase its climate credentials
PHILIP DUNNE CHAIR, ENVIRONMENTAL AUDIT COMMITTEE
“O
ur ability to come
together to stop or limit
damage to the world’s
environment will be
perhaps the greatest
test of how far we can act as a world
community,” said a former prime minister,
and there are no truer words as we advance
towards the opening of COP26.
The importance of COP26, at a time of
dangerously rising emissions, cannot be
understated. This was emphasised over
the summer by the UN’s Intergovernmental
© KEYSTONE PRESS/ALAMY STOCK PHOTO
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It warned
that under all emissions scenarios, both
Paris agreement targets of keeping the rise
in global temperatures below 2C and 1.5C
will be broken this century unless huge
cuts in carbon take place.
We must be clear that this UNFCCC
process—a series of UN conferences
to discuss how we can come together
to protect the environment from more Just like at the World Climate Conference in 1990, today the UK must once more show climate leadership
damage—is evolutionary rather than
revolutionary. But the time is still ripe for as the Transport Decarbonisation Plan and While it’s easy to pass the buck of
significant progress in Glasgow. The vital the Hydrogen Strategy. responsibility to the government or the big
recipe for a successful COP appears to be In coming weeks, we can expect not only corporates, behaviour change—although
ambition, willingness and optimism. World the cross-government net zero strategy, but an uncomfortable topic—can make a
leaders will not leave Glasgow having also the chancellor’s multi-annual spending huge impact. This starts with each and
“solved” climate change, but they should review. These are pivotal moments for the every one of us.
leave the conference with an injection government to put its money where its Due to innovations hitting the market,
of enthusiasm to champion low carbon mouth is and demonstrate leadership. and a knowledge base continuously
energy, a range of ideas to decarbonise But it is not all about public money— growing on what is good or bad for
transport, as well as greater knowledge as there is a much larger role for the private the environment, we can increasingly
to how consumption levels can be managed sector. The real impetus to tackle climate make our own choices to live a more
to avoid harming the environment. change will come from investors and environmentally friendly lifestyle. On the
As host, the UK has an extraordinary corporates getting behind decarbonising Environmental Audit Committee, we have
opportunity—that many of us may not see our economy. The pressure is mounting, already made recommendations on the
again in our lifetimes—to show real climate and not just among businesses: now more need for proper recycling of old mobiles
leadership. This level of climate leadership than ever consumers are demanding more and laptops, and on progress towards low
hasn’t been seen since 1990, during a sustainable products and services. This is carbon home heating methods. Some
speech at the World Climate Conference a powerful behaviour change, spanning changes can be small, some significant;
in Geneva by Margaret Thatcher, whose generations. some can be cheap, but others will be
words I opened this piece with. Already it appears to be having an effect: expensive. But all of us can take steps to
As the UK gets ready to host COP in earlier this year it was announced that a understand and reduce our own carbon
Glasgow, we must summon this level of third of the UK’s FTSE100 companies had footprint.
climate leadership and influence—in committed to net zero, and the retail sector COP26 brings all these different
government, parliament and civil society. has been urged to do the same. There is of methods and channels to demonstrate
First, the government must crack on course a balance to strike, and consumers climate leadership into sharp focus. While
with its domestic environment policies. Over are increasingly alert to PR initiatives all eyes are on a few days in November,
the last 18 months, the Covid-19 pandemic merely reflecting “greenwashing.” So the we must ensure that the Glasgow
has occupied much of Whitehall’s time, and private sector must take tangible steps conference brings a lasting legacy of
environmental policies have faced delay towards demonstrating genuine net zero empowerment, innovation and optimism.
after delay. As we get back to normal, it’s commitments in its activities. Consumers We must keep global temperatures down:
promising to see initiatives launched such expect it. there is no alternative.NOVEMBER 2021 | PROSPECT LESSONS FOR COP26 15
DELAY IS NOT AN OPTION
The government’s record in the run-up to COP26 is one of complacency and shortcomings
CAROLINE LUCAS G
REEN PARTY MP FOR BRIGHTON PAVILION
W
alking into a major UN summit empty-handed, when
you are the host, is not a great way to open one of the
most important international summits for decades—
and especially when you have spent the previous few
months urging other countries to raise their game.
The UK government’s record in the run-up to COP26 is one of
complacency, shortcomings and delay, which will not have gone
unnoticed by other governments.
Current government plans will deliver less than a quarter of the
cuts needed to meet the target of 68 per cent reduction by 2030.
The UK is installing fewer heat pumps than almost any country in
Europe. The Environment Bill, described by the prime minister as
the “lodestar” of his administration, is apparently being delayed for
a fourth time.
Meanwhile, the climate crisis is accelerating. Just this year we
have seen record-breaking heat in Europe and North America,
wildfires on all continents except Antarctica, and deadly flooding in
Germany, Belgium, India and China.
The temperature goal of the Paris agreement was to limit global
heating to well below 2C, preferably 1.5C, compared to pre-industrial
levels. Keeping 1.5C “within reach” while securing global net zero by
mid-century is the top priority of COP26. But a report from the IPCC Some government policies—like the continued exploration of oil and gas in the
in August warned that we are in danger of hitting this level of heating North Sea—are taking us in the completely wrong direction
long before then, unless the world urgently cuts emissions.
Many of the consequences of climate change are baked in. Some, But the UK government is again using ambitious targets to mask
like sea level rise, are irreversible for centuries, even millennia. inaction. Last September it signed the UN leaders’ pledge to protect
But the IPCC scientists said there was still time to limit the 30 per cent of land and sea by 2030, but destructive fishing is still
damage through strong, sustained and rapid reductions in carbon being permitted in marine protected areas, while its Environment Bill
emissions. Delay is not an option. weakens protections we enjoyed as members of the EU.
Yet climate delay seems to be the government’s strategy. It has Worse, it seems to believe that 26 per cent of land is already taken
announced plenty of new targets to give the impression that it’s care of. In reality, it’s as little as 5 per cent that’s adequately protected.
serious about the climate crisis, but it does very little to achieve The UK—one of the most nature-depleted countries in the world—has
them, instead crossing its fingers in the hope that something will also failed to meet 17 out of 20 biodiversity targets it signed up to a
turn up. decade ago. If this is the government’s idea of protecting nature, then
This Micawber-like approach is deeply dangerous, and it has the environment is in even worse trouble than we thought.
created a vacuum which is being filled by right-wing MPs pushing Then there’s the money. The issue of climate finance, particularly
the narrative that the transition to a sustainable future just costs around loss and damage, has stalled negotiations at previous climate
too much. Yet we know that doing nothing now will mean far, far summits and could lead to the collapse of COP26. The $100bn in
greater costs in future. climate finance that richer nations promised by 2020 has still not
Delay is bad enough, but so many government policies are been delivered in full—with the ODI estimating that the UK has paid
actually taking us in the wrong direction. Just this year, it initially less than half of its fair share, taking into account its population,
gave the green light to a new coalmine in Cumbria (a decision national income and cumulative emissions.
called in only after widespread condemnation) and is allowing Sharma has rightly identified the finance issue as “a matter of
continued oil and gas exploration in the North Sea. Add to that trust, and trust matters in international climate politics.” So it was
its £27bn roadbuilding programme, ongoing airport expansion extraordinary and deeply damaging that, in the run-up to the summit,
schemes and a planning bill which ignores the need for emissions the government slashed overseas aid by £4bn—breaking a Tory
© MARTIN LANGER/ALAMY STOCK PHOTO
targets in future developments. Yet at the same time, Boris Johnson manifesto commitment.
and COP26 president Alok Sharma call on other countries to be The government’s claim that it had increased climate finance to
more ambitious. This isn’t climate leadership. It’s climate hypocrisy. £11.6bn is deeply cynical when that money has come from the aid
COP26’s second goal is to “adapt to protect communities budget. That sort of financial trickery doesn’t fool anybody, least of all
and natural habitats.” I welcome the fact that the climate and countries in the global south.
ecological crises are being addressed together, especially with the Targets masquerading as climate action, creative accounting
postponement of the UN’s biodiversity summit COP15 because about what’s being achieved and broken promises on aid—this is
of the pandemic. The protection of nature is absolutely vital in the the government’s true climate record. Hardly the “global leadership
struggle to prevent climate breakdown. on climate” that Johnson frequently boasts of, but still isn’t delivering.You can also read
