THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020 - Dougal Robinson September 2019
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THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020 Dougal Robinson September 2019
Table of contents
The United States Studies Centre at the University of
Sydney is a university-based research centre, dedicated Executive summary 01
to the rigorous analysis of American foreign policy,
Introduction 02
economics, politics and culture. The Centre is a national
resource, that builds Australia’s awareness of the dynamics
Foreign policy: Rarely the dominant 04
shaping America — and critically — their implications for
issue in US presidential elections
Australia.
The candidates 06
United States Studies Centre
The key issues for Australia 13
Institute Building (H03)
The University of Sydney NSW 2006
Foreign policy in the general election 17
Australia
Endnotes 18
Phone: +61 2 9351 7249
Email: us-studies@sydney.edu.au About the author 25
Twitter: @ussc
Website: ussc.edu.au
This report may be cited as:
Dougal Robinson, “The frontrunners: Foreign
policy and the Democratic Party in 2020,” United
States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney,
September 2019.
Reports published by the United States Studies Centre are
anonymously peer-reviewed by both internal and external experts.
Cover photo: (L-R) Former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie
Sanders and Senator Kamala Harris during the second night of the first
Democratic presidential debate, June 2019 (Getty)
UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE
THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
Executive summary
The Democratic Party’s foreign policy platform is getting tougher on China and simultaneously
growing more sceptical of the utility of free trade, high defence spending, and US leadership in the
Middle East.
Consequently, Australia will likely face more difficult decisions hedging between Washington and
Beijing, regardless of which candidate wins the 2020 election.
Although Democratic primaries always feature a pull to the left, the trend is more pronounced now
than in recent cycles due to the strength of the party’s progressive wing.
The leading progressives, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, propose significant changes to
President Obama’s foreign policy platform.
President Trump is unlikely to achieve major domestic successes before the election, so many of his
most notable actions in the lead up to the general election in November 2020 — and what he will
see as an electoral strength — will likely be foreign policy.
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Introduction
The Democratic Party is adopting a tougher approach example of bipartisan consensus between President
to China and moving left on many issues of great Trump and Democrats in highly polarised Washington.
consequence to Australia, including trade and defence Democrats broadly support President Trump’s
spending. Since the end of the Cold War, foreign confrontational approach towards Beijing, though not
policy centrists have led a party committed to liberal all of his methods. Moreover, Democrats use tough talk
internationalism, alliances, and to some degree, free on China to build a greater sense of domestic unity in
trade. In this presidential election cycle, more left- a fractured polity. Yet there are striking inconsistencies
leaning ‘progressives’ such as Senators Elizabeth in Democrats’ approach to China, particularly that
Warren and Bernie Sanders enjoy enthusiastic support they are calling for a tougher approach to China while
and are pulling the party’s platform to the left on remaining hesitant, at best, about supporting high
domestic and foreign policy. defence spending and the Trans-Pacific Partnership
(TPP).
Unlike more centrist Democrats such as Joe Biden,
progressives are sceptical or even hostile towards If a Democratic president is sworn in on 20 January
free trade agreements and vocal in their calls to cut 2021, they will likely have won the Oval Office on a
the defence budget. platform that is far more assertive towards China than
In this election cycle, the Obama administration’s, and to the left of the last
There are striking inconsistencies centrists and progressives two Democratic presidents on most foreign policy
agree on foreign policy issues. Joe Biden, President Obama’s vice president,
in Democrats’ approach to China, positions such as opposing is adopting a more competitive tone towards China and
particularly that they are calling authoritarianism, reducing seeking to mollify criticism from progressives on issues
for a tougher approach to China support for non-democratic such as the TPP. The leading progressives, Elizabeth
allies, and raising the Warren and Bernie Sanders, propose major changes
while remaining hesitant, at
prominence of human to President Obama’s foreign policy platform. For
best, about supporting high rights and climate change this wing of the Democratic Party, the 44th president
defence spending and the in foreign policy.1 The key tolerated a rigged global economy and authoritarian
Trans-Pacific Partnership. question for allies like regimes, and spent far too much on defence.2 The
Australia is whether the other major candidates at this point — California
current move to the left Senator Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana Mayor
on foreign policy translates into a new and lasting Pete Buttigieg — are responding to the prevalent
Democratic Party foreign policy consensus, and political winds by talking tough on China, but seeking to
perhaps a president whose foreign policy is to the left distance themselves from the Obama administration’s
of the Obama and Clinton administrations. role in the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and trade
agreements that are perceived as overly favourable
Concurrently, the shift to a more confrontational tone towards big business. With a field that at one point
towards China is highly noteworthy and driven by numbered 25 candidates, and the vast majority of
concerns over economic issues, human rights and Democratic voters yet to decide on their preferred
to a lesser extent, geopolitics. Democrats lament job candidate, the outcome of the Democratic primary is
losses due to Beijing’s economic policies and criticise highly uncertain.3 But the foreign policy contours are
China’s record on intellectual property. The increasingly becoming clear, and they will help shape the 2020
authoritarian nature of the Chinese Communist Party, election, the Democratic Party and US foreign policy.
especially its influence operations overseas and
conduct in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, are animating Australia, and other US allies and partners, must start
issues for Democratic candidates who speak about considering the implications of these shifts. First, as the
China in strong, often ideological terms. The China needle on China policy swings in a more competitive
hardening is not a Trump-specific or a Republican-only direction across the American body politic, Australia
phenomenon. Rather, getting tough on China is a rare and indeed most countries in the Indo-Pacific will
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President Barack
Obama speaks
about the
withdrawal of
US troops from
Afghanistan as Vice
President Joe Biden
looks on,
October 2015
Photo: Getty
likely face more difficult decisions hedging between Third, as Democrats move to the left and Donald Trump
Washington and Beijing. The increasingly ideological continues to remake the Republican platform, the
and adversarial tone towards China means Washington gap between the United States’ two political parties
will put more pressure on Canberra to stand shoulder is widening on all major foreign policy issues except
to shoulder on issues that are highly sensitive for the China and trade policy.4 In turn, the United States will
Chinese Communist Party, including Taiwan, Hong be a less consistent ally, with bigger shifts between
Kong and Xinjiang. administrations of different political persuasions and
lower prospects that foreign policy initiatives from one
Second, the foreign policy platform of the Democratic administration will carry over, just as President Trump
Party is no longer dominated by centrist figures who walked away from the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris
are well known to Australia, such as Barack Obama, climate accords and the TPP.
Bill and Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and John Kerry.
There is the very real prospect that a Democratic
candidate relatively unknown to allies and partners,
with limited experience in foreign policy, or promising
wholesale changes to foreign policy, triumphs in the
general election. Indeed, this is the norm in recent
presidential politics. All four US presidents elected
after the Cold War — Presidents Donald Trump, Barack
Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton — won their
first presidential term with a very thin foreign policy
resume.
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Foreign policy: Rarely the dominant issue
in US presidential elections
Foreign policy rarely determines who wins the do speak directly about foreign policy, they tend
Democratic or Republican Party nomination or the to pivot back to their domestic platform,8 or craft
general election because it is far less important to soundbite-length interjections to land blows on fellow
American voters than more immediate concerns candidates or President Trump.9 For foreign policy to
such as healthcare, the state of the economy, taxes be a major issue in primaries or the general election,
or immigration. Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump all it generally needs to be a single, relatively clear-cut
campaigned for their first term in the Oval Office by issue such as whether a candidate supported the Iraq
promising to focus on nation building at home and do War.10 More broadly, foreign policy plays a role insofar
less in the world, regardless of how they governed. as all frontline candidates face the ‘Commander-
Public opinion surveys, Democratic candidates’ in-Chief’ test: whether Americans would trust the
stump speeches and candidate to be the commander in chief of the US
party debates all suggest military. However, in the 2016 election, polls showed
this trend is continuing in voters trusted Hillary Clinton more than Donald
American voters across both
the 2020 election cycle.5 Trump to be commander in chief, yet Trump was
parties want US foreign A May 2019 survey by effective in neutralising this gap by using Clinton’s
policy to focus on two key the Center for American extensive record against her, painting her as the latest
objectives: firstly, protecting Progress (CAP), a incarnation of a foreign policy establishment that had
progressive think tank in plunged the United States into endless wars and
the homeland and American
Washington, found that unpopular trade deals.11
people from external threats American voters across
(particularly terrorism), and There are significant differences on foreign policy in
both parties want US
the Democratic field, and a wide gulf between the
secondly, protecting jobs foreign policy to focus on
worldview of major contenders Joe Biden and Bernie
two key objectives: firstly,
for American workers. Sanders. Yet, absent a war or major international crisis
protecting the homeland
in the next year, Democrats’ intra-party differences
and American people from
and their debates with President Trump are likely to
external threats (particularly terrorism), and secondly,
focus on domestic issues.
protecting jobs for American workers.6 Perhaps the
most significant finding of this poll and several others Democrats are currently spending most of their time
is that a majority of Americans see China as the United and energy debating a suite of major domestic policy
States’ main competitor, ahead of other countries such changes, including universal healthcare, the ‘green
as Russia, Iran or North Korea. Moreover, many of the new deal’, and major immigration reform. Although
key phrases used by foreign policy experts — the Democratic primaries always feature a pull to the left
‘liberal international order’, ‘fighting authoritarianism’, (and Republican primaries to the right), the trend is
‘working with allies and the international community’, more pronounced now than in recent cycles due to
and ‘promoting democracy’ — all fell flat among a the strength of the party’s progressive wing. Some
representative sample of voters, who “simply did but not all Democratic presidential candidates are
not understand what any of these phrases and ideas embracing previously untouchable positions such as
meant or implied”.7 abolishing private health insurance, far higher taxes
for the rich and softening immigration policies.
Unsurprisingly, the Democratic candidates are at
this point devoting relatively limited speaking time The lack of focus on foreign policy relative to domestic
to complex foreign policy matters. At this point of policy is anything but commensurate with the fact that
the cycle, they are jostling with each other, trying foreign policy is the area in which the US president
to make an impression with the electorate on the has greatest capacity to implement their vision. In all
most important domestic issues. When Democrats likelihood, the winner of the 2020 presidential election
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will be elected on a domestic platform that will be
partially or mostly stalled in Congress and perhaps
the courts. President Trump’s record on domestic
The presidential
and foreign policy implementation is instructive. With election cycle
some notable exceptions, the Trump administration’s
The presidential election cycle can be
domestic agenda and key campaign promises have so
conceptualised in four phases. First, Democrats
far been partially or entirely frustrated.12 By contrast,
will be positioning until the Iowa caucus (3
President Trump has a strong record of implementing
February 2020), with the remaining candidates
his central foreign policy pledges from the 2016
competing for attention and the field narrowing
election campaign, including putting tariffs on China,
as candidates drop out. Second, the primary
withdrawing from the Iran and Paris agreements, and
phase will winnow the field to one nominee.
recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
The primaries commence with the first vote in
One major difference in the Democratic Party on Iowa and last several months as all states hold
foreign policy this election, relative to previous cycles, staggered votes including 15 states on Super
is the influence of outside groups, particularly National Tuesday (3 March 2020), and the candidate
Security Action (NSA). Founded in 2018 by Ben to be formally nominated at the Democratic
Rhodes, former Deputy National Security Adviser to Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (13-16
President Obama, and Jake Sullivan, former National July 2020). Third, the Democratic nominee will
Security Adviser to Vice President Biden, NSA directly compete with President Trump in the
provides Democratic candidates with talking points general election phase from the convention
and policy expertise to oppose President Trump. It sits until election day (3 November 2020). Fourth,
at the centrist end of the Democratic Party, dedicated if a Democrat wins the election, they will be
to “advancing American global leadership”.13 Rhodes in transition phase until they take the oath
has said its objective is to disband in 2021 if the of office on 20 January 2021. As we get
Democratic nominee wins the election.14 If a centrist further into the election cycle, the remaining
wins the election, it is likely that NSA’s network of Democratic candidates and then the single
more than 60 former senior officials from the Obama nominee will likely offer more fleshed-out
and Clinton administrations, academic experts and foreign policy proposals.
think tank leaders such as Tom Donilon, Susan Rice,
Anne-Marie Slaughter, Dennis McDonough and
Samantha Power, will comprise much of the key
foreign policy team of the incoming administration.
Similarly, groups such as CAP and Middle East-
focused J Street are also providing intellectual energy
and talking points to Democrats.
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The frontrunners
At this stage, the five major candidates, from The differences between the candidates’ foreign
centre to left on foreign policy, are Joe Biden, Pete policy positions are subtle but significant and will
Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and shape the Democratic Party’s debates over coming
Bernie Sanders. These candidates are well ahead of months. Although there is growing consensus on
their fellow aspirants on all the key metrics, including a tougher China policy — despite candidates also
polling, fundraising and name recognition. Each has a acknowledging the importance of co-operation with
growing bench of foreign policy advisers. Moreover, Beijing on shared challenges such as climate change
all bar Harris have thus far issued at least one major and nuclear proliferation — Democrats diverge in their
foreign policy speech to bolster their commander relative emphasis on various aspects of the Chinese
in chief credentials, and Warren and Sanders have Communist Party’s behaviour and key focus for US
complemented their speeches with detailed essays policy towards China. Aside from the need to wind
and policy proposals. It is unlikely but not impossible down the ‘forever wars’ in Iraq and Afghanistan, there
that another candidate such as Amy Klobuchar, Cory are notable differences in their approach to Iran, Israel
Booker or Beto O’Rourke captures the nomination, and Saudi Arabia. There is a spectrum on defence
though at this stage these three and their fellow spending, from a flat budget top-line with greater
‘outsider’ candidates each focus on modernisation, to calls for lower or far lower
consistently receive less spending. On trade agreements, some progressives
than 5 per cent support exhibit outright hostility, whereas centrists call for
The differences between the in polls of Democratic trade agreements such as the TPP to pay greater
candidates’ foreign policy voters and trail far behind attention to environmental and labour provisions.
positions are subtle but the frontrunners on
fundraising.15
significant and will shape the Joe Biden
Democratic Party’s debates There is a wide array of
similarities in Democrats’ Joe Biden has an extensive foreign policy record
over coming months.
approach to foreign from his 44-year career in government, including as
policy. If elected, a vice president during the Obama administration for
Democratic president eight years, and three separate stints as chairman
would immediately alter the style and much of the of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.16 The
substance of President Trump’s foreign policy. To Democratic frontrunner is seeking to portray himself
varying degrees, all candidates mention the need to as an elder statesman; a reliable and experienced
rebuild strained ties with US allies and partners. Given choice for commander in chief. In July 2019, Biden’s
President Trump’s affinity for generals, and the state campaign posted a 90-second video lambasting
of civil-military relations, Democrats are in favour of Trump’s admiration for autocrats, warmongering
using the military as the tool of last resort, instead towards Iran, withdrawal from the Iran and Paris
emphasising the non-military tools of US international accords, and trade wars.17 The advertisement
engagement, including diplomacy, trade, aid and coincided with Biden’s first significant foreign policy
people-to-people links. Where President Trump speech of the campaign, at the City University of
often admires authoritarian leaders, the Democratic New York, where he told the audience, “the world
candidates are critical of authoritarian regimes. All sees [President] Trump for what he is: insincere,
candidates champion re-entry to the Paris climate ill-informed, and impulsive. Sometimes corrupt.
agreement. Similarly, Democrats widely support Dangerously incompetent, and incapable, in my
re-entry to the Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran, view, of world leadership and leadership at home”.18
though there would be significant hurdles involved in If elected, Biden would revert to many Obama-
bringing Iran back to the negotiating table and winning era policies, pledges to renegotiate TPP to include
renewed buy-in from the other parties to the deal. stronger environmental and labour protections, and
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foreign leaders and can restore a global system that Vice President Joe
Biden on board the
President Trump has attacked. At the Munich Security HMAS Adelaide in
Conference in February 2019, Biden promised, Sydney, July 2016
“this too shall pass. We will be back”.24 He is also Photo: Getty
the candidate who knows Australia best, having
visited Melbourne and Sydney and addressed the
United States Studies Centre and Lowy Institute in
2016, and developed relationships with many former
Australian prime ministers and foreign ministers.25
Relative to the other candidates, Biden enjoys a deep
bench of foreign policy advisers and has many of
President Obama’s foreign policy team behind him.
Consequently, Biden’s key advisers are well known
to Australian officials. Ely Ratner, a leading Democrat
Asia hand, China hawk and former adviser to the vice
views it as a key plank of US leadership in Asia.19 president, would likely be a key figure on Asia policy in
However, re-entering the TPP would require the a Biden administration. Moreover, Biden’s campaign
agreement of the 11 other signatory nations (including will also receive advice from staff at the think tank
Australia) and passage of the bill through Congress established in his name after he left the office: the
would depend largely on Republican votes due to Penn Biden Center at the University of Pennsylvania.26
the weak pro-trade constituency in the Democratic
However, Biden’s extensive public record from
Party.20
a lifetime of public service is also shaping as a
As a major foreign policy figure in the Obama vulnerability in a Democratic Party. Rivals seek to
administration, Biden has little capacity to make portray Biden as old and out of touch with America
a significant break from its policies. The two key in 2019. On foreign policy, he faces the formidable
differences between Biden’s comments in this challenge of defending his long record and
campaign thus far and his record as vice president are simultaneously showing that he understands today’s
his pledge to get tough on China and endorsement realities.27 Biden’s vulnerabilities with the Democratic
of a ‘global summit for democracy’. The goal of the base include his support for TPP in the Obama
summit would be to inspire a “renewal. . . of shared administration, and votes as a senator in favour of the
purpose” among the world’s democracies at a time Iraq War, the North American Free Trade Agreement
when autocracy seems on the march.21 Relatedly, he (NAFTA) and to establish permanent normal trade
views greater unity of action among democracies as relations with China. In coming months, Biden will
helpful for competing with China and his key advisers invariably seek to mollify these concerns from the left.
believe that multilateral rather than unilateral pressure
is the way to shape and change Beijing’s behaviour. 22
During the speech, Biden explicitly declared that “we Pete Buttigieg
need to get tough with China”, with the unsubtle
suggestion that the United States build a “united ‘Mayor Pete’ Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, is an
front” of “friends and partners to challenge China’s unlikely top-tier candidate in the Democratic primary.
abusive behaviour”.23 His political identity is very different to the other
frontrunners: he governs a town of 100,000 people
Allies, partners and adversaries alike would view in the Midwest, is just 37 years old, gay, a veteran
Biden as a stable and reliable foreign policy president. from the war in Afghanistan and a Rhodes Scholar.28
Part of Biden’s pitch is that he personally knows most Strong fundraising and decent polling have attracted
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South Bend, power in the Western Pacific, but rather on the
Indiana Mayor
Pete Buttigieg basis of a values-based scepticism of the Chinese
addresses the Communist Party.32 He has called out China’s
crowd at the South
Carolina Democratic “techno-authoritarianism”, which is “being held up as
Party State an alternative to ours [democracy] because ours looks
Convention,
June 2019 so chaotic compared to theirs right now because
Photo: Getty of our internal divisions”. Consequently, he says,
the United States must invest in its own domestic
competitiveness and revitalise its democracy to
improve its position relative to China.33 He views allies
and partners like Australia as central to conducting
this emerging ideological struggle with China.
On other foreign policy issues, Buttigieg is firmly in
a number of high-profile foreign policy advisers line with the prevalent political winds in the party.
to the Buttigieg campaign, led by Doug Wilson, a He plays up his opposition to the Iraq War while he
former Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Obama was a student at Harvard, drawing an implicit contrast
administration and the first openly gay Pentagon with Joe Biden,34 and promises to block American
official confirmed by the US Senate. funding for Israeli annexation of the West Bank, an
increasingly common stance among Democrats
Buttigieg’s practical experience of international affairs who are likely to face criticism from Republicans for
is limited, but he has started to thoughtfully engage being insufficiently supportive of Israel. Moreover,
in foreign policy. In a June 2019 speech at Indiana Buttigieg frequently mentions his service in uniform
University, ‘National Security for a New Era’, Buttigieg in Afghanistan in 2014 as a sign that he has “seen
sought to allay fears that a young midwestern mayor first-hand the costs of our long conflict[s]” and argue
was unfit to serve as commander in chief. He that it is time to end endless wars.35
started with a thinly veiled criticism of Biden and the
Democratic foreign policy establishment: “For the
better part of my lifetime, it has been difficult to identify Kamala Harris
a consistent foreign policy in the Democratic Party.”29
Buttigieg is also unsparing in his words on President Senator Kamala Harris has the most limited foreign
Trump’s foreign policy, but contends, “much was policy record of the major candidates. She was
already broken when this president arrived”. Where elected to the Senate in 2016 and her prior career
policy has erred, Buttigieg argued in a long-form was as the District Attorney of San Francisco and
interview, is that “everything we have to say about Attorney General of California. In Washington, Harris’
foreign policy has to be tied back to what it means at involvement in international issues has been on the
home”.30 This sort of rhetoric, adopted by Buttigieg Senate Intelligence Committee, and as an outspoken
and his more progressive counterparts, is increasingly voice on trade and intellectual property issues,
in vogue because many voters hold the Washington typically adopting a narrow law-based approach.
foreign policy establishment responsible for long wars Unlike the other frontline candidates, Harris has not
in Iraq and Afghanistan, trade agreements identified yet made a major foreign policy speech or published
with job losses, and rising nuclear threats posed by an essay. From a political perspective, Harris’ limited
North Korea and Iran. foreign policy record is to some extent a strength,
because she is at liberty to choose her positions.
Buttigieg frames the China challenge as a battle of
competing ideologies.31 His proposals rest not on Harris’ most notable comments on foreign policy
a geopolitical ambition to remain the pre-eminent issues centre on criticism of China’s economic
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practices and her frequent calls to protect American and foreign policy. The central thrust of Warren’s
democracy. As a senator from California, the home domestic message is that corporate power plays
to many of America’s tech giants, Harris has urged too large a role in public policy. This has important
the Trump administration to protect American ramifications for her approach to trade policy, defence
technology from China.36 She has accused China of spending and management of the Pentagon.40 Warren
engaging in “unfair industrial policies and outright has a very extensive record of speeches, essays and
theft of American intellectual property”, and said policy proposals, calling for a more progressive, less
America should address “the threat [China] presents interventionist foreign policy with a reduced role for
to our economy, the threat it presents to American the private sector. If she wins the nomination, Warren
workers”.37 During the 2016 election, Harris argued would represent a wholesale break from Democratic
against the TPP on the basis that it would invalidate Party foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.
California’s progressive climate change and
environmental laws.38 Much of her criticism of the Warren’s message rests on a rejection of the
Trump administration has focused on its insufficient Washington foreign policy establishment, support
defence of democracy and inappropriate links to for democracy and opposition to authoritarians, and
authoritarian regimes: “We have foreign powers very explicitly connects international issues with
infecting the White House like malware.”39 pocket-book issues for American voters. These
themes permeate Warren’s November 2018 Foreign
Affairs essay, “A Foreign Policy For All”, which opens
Senator Kamala
with an overt attack on recent decades of foreign Harris speaks
policy: “From endless wars that strain military during her
presidential
families to trade policies that crush our middle class, campaign launch
Washington’s foreign policy today serves the wealthy rally in California,
January 2019
and well-connected at the expense of everyone Photo: Getty
else.”41 If she is elected president, Warren would, like
President Trump, enter office with a very clear set of
foreign policy priorities and a worldview unlikely to
shift.
Economic policy is the key focus for Warren’s
domestic platform and her vision of America’s
role in the world. She would pursue “an agenda of
economic patriotism, using new and existing tools to
defend and create quality American jobs and promote
Should Harris continue to be among the Democratic American industry”.42 She envisages a bigger role for
frontrunners, she will likely publish an essay or make the US government in the economy, championing an
a speech laying out her foreign policy platform. At that industrial policy to invest in key technologies where
point, outsiders will gain a far better sense of how she Chinese system may have an edge.43 American trade
would govern if elected President. policy, Warren charges, has “worked gloriously well
for elites around the world”, but it has “left working
people discouraged and disaffected”.44 Warren
Elizabeth Warren opposed the TPP in 2015, calling it “a rigged process”
producing “a rigged outcome” and suggesting it
As a former Harvard Law professor, Massachusetts would “tilt the playing field even more in favour of
senator and presidential candidate, Elizabeth Warren big multinational corporations and against working
has built a reputation as a progressive policy wonk who families”. More recently, she voted against President
champions fundamental changes to American society Trump’s renegotiated trade deal with Mexico and
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Senator Elizabeth merely line the pockets of defense contractors”.50 It
Warren addresses
a crowd at a is less clear how Warren would approach defence
town hall event in policy on issues ranging from deterrence to support
South Carolina,
August 2019 for NATO. That said, Warren has been an outspoken
Photo: Getty proponent of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons, a
position that would represent a major change in
US defence policy and arguably weaken American
extended deterrence for allies, including Australia.51
Bernie Sanders
An independent senator from Vermont, Bernie
Sanders is setting the goalposts at the progressive
end of the Democratic field by proposing radical
Canada (the United States Mexico Canada Trade changes to domestic and foreign policy. Since his
Agreement), calling it “NAFTA 2.0”.45 2016 Democratic primary loss to Hillary Clinton,
Sanders has started to lay out a more comprehensive
At this stage, it is unclear how, exactly, Warren would foreign policy vision that he has espoused in a range
implement her vision of “trade on our terms and of essays and speeches starting in 2017. Although
only when it benefits American families”, which has he has engaged on issues such as the Chinese
been likened to President Trump’s approach.46 The Communist Party’s human rights record, unlike fellow
plan would apply nine very strict criteria to both new Democratic candidates Sanders has largely avoided
and existing trade deals, including “upholding and discussing China policy and US-China competition.52
enforcing the labor rights laid out by the International
Labour Organization, eliminating all domestic fossil Sanders proposes a fundamental restructuring of
fuel subsidies, fulfilling commitments from the Paris US foreign policy. He has called for a worldwide
Climate Agreement, not running afoul of the State struggle against oligarchy and corporate power —
Department’s Country Reports on Human Rights, and a “global progressive movement” for economic
not being on the Treasury Department’s monitoring equality, democratic rights and environmental
list for manipulative currency practices”.47 As Warren sustainability.53 Moreover, Sanders says he will be
has conceded, the United States does not currently both “commander in chief and organizer in chief”,54
meet these criteria, and nor do many US allies.48 If
Warren is elected president, there is likely to be a major
overhaul of US trade policy, a grinding slowdown to
existing free trade agreements, few or no new trade
agreements, and increased protectionism.49
Additionally, Warren is vocal on defence issues,
and endorses a significantly smaller budget and an
overhaul to how the Pentagon does business. A few
years ago, Warren joined the Senate Armed Services
Committee, which bolsters her credentials to serve
Senator Bernie as commander in chief. She has argued that “the
Sanders addresses Pentagon’s budget has been too large for too long” and
a rally in New York
City, March 2016 proposes an audit of the Pentagon to try to separate
Photo: Getty effective defence acquisitions from those “which
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who will “reconceptualize a global order based on Like President Trump, Sanders has the politically potent
human solidarity”.55 This language is somewhat ability to frame issues in simple, short soundbites
tempered by his belief that the United States should to criticise rivals. He has particularly lambasted Joe
“lead the struggle to defend and expand a rules- Biden on foreign policy: “I helped lead the opposition
based international order in which law, not might, to what turned out to be the worst foreign policy
makes right”.56 Sanders explicitly rejects isolationism disaster in the modern history of America. Joe voted
— yet his conception of the international order is for it [the Iraq War]” and “Joe voted for NAFTA and
nonetheless very different to the Obama and Clinton permanent trade relations, trade agreements with
administrations’.57 China. I led the effort against that. Joe voted for the
deregulation of Wall Street, I voted against that”.61
Sanders has been outspoken in his opposition to But Sanders’ diagnosis of the issues afflicting the
authoritarian regimes and has consistently championed United States do not necessarily translate into easily
greater emphasis on climate change in foreign policy. deliverable foreign policy governance.
He laments the “rise of a new authoritarian axis” in
the world, arguing that it is interwoven with income
inequality.58 His major foreign policy initiative since
the last presidential election was championing a
congressional resolution invoking the War Powers
Act of 1973 to suspend the Trump administration’s
support of Saudi Arabia’s military campaign in
Yemen. The bill passed the House and Senate in the
aftermath of the Saudi Arabian government’s murder
of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, but was vetoed by
President Trump.59 And, among the major Democratic
candidates, Sanders vows to give climate change the
most prominent role in foreign policy.60
11UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE
THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
Table 1: Where the candidates currently stand on foreign policy issues
CANDIDATE CHINA TRADE DEFENCE SPENDING IRAN MAJOR FOREIGN POLICY
ADDRESS/ESSAY
JOE BIDEN “We are in a competition with China. We need “I would not rejoin the TPP as it was initially put “Our military is one tool in our toolbox — along “Two of America’s vital interests in the Middle East Speech, 11 July 2019: “The Power of
to get tough with China. They are a serious forward. I would insist that we renegotiate ... with diplomacy, economic power, education, are preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon America’s Example: The Biden Plan for
challenge to us, and in some areas a real threat.” Either China’s going to write the rules of the road science and technology. We must invest in and and securing a stable energy supply through the Leading the Democratic World to Meet
for the 21st century on trade or we are. We have strengthen all elements of our power. And, we Strait of Hormuz … Trump is failing on both counts.” the Challenges of the 21st Century”
“The United States should push back
to join with the 40 per cent of the world that we must modernize our military to prepare for the “If Tehran returns to compliance with the
on China’s deepening authoritarianism, Speech, 1 November 2017: “Global
had with us and this time make sure that there’s wars of tomorrow, while ensuring that we only [JCPOA] deal, I would rejoin the agreement,
even as we seek to cooperate on issues Engagement in an Age of Uncertainty”66
no one sitting at that table doing the deal unless deploy American troops into harm’s way when and work with our allies to strengthen and
where our interests are aligned.“62
environmentalists are there and labor is there.” it is in our vital national security interest.”64 extend it, while more effectively pushing back
“President Trump may think he’s being tough on against Iran’s destabilizing activities.”65
China. All that he’s delivered as a consequence
of that is American farmers, manufacturers
and consumers losing and paying more.”63
PETE “I’m not among the Democrats who think “Quick reminder: a tariff is a tax. On Americans.” “To shape this young century to our advantage, “I will rejoin our international partners and Speech, 11 June 2019: “America and the
BUTTIGIEG that China’s nothing to worry about ... There’s we must renew our national security architecture recommit the United States to the Iran nuclear World: National Security for a New Era”71
“It’s also a fool’s errand to think you will be
something about the orientation on China [under — our military, certainly, but also our intelligence, deal. Whatever its imperfections, this was perhaps
able to get China to change the fundamentals
Trump] that I think is not completely wrong.” communications, diplomatic, and development as close to a true “art of the deal” as it gets.”70
of their economic model by poking them
institutions ... It begins with taking a hard look
“The challenge of China presents perhaps in the eye with some tariffs.”68
at our defense. To adequately prepare for
the most pressing example anywhere of
our evolving security challenges, we need to
the need to stand for American values
look not only at how much we’re spending on
amid the rise of a potent alternative.”67
our military but what we’re prioritizing.”69
KAMALA “China’s abysmal human rights record must “Because of the so-called trade policy this president “As a senator from the state with the largest “I would plan to rejoin the JCPOA so long as Iran None to date.
HARRIS feature prominently in our policy toward the has, that has been nothing more than the Trump number of military personnel in the country, I also returned to verifiable compliance. At the same
country … Under my administration, we will trade tax, that has resulted in American families support providing them with the necessary tools time, I would seek negotiations with Iran to extend
cooperate with China on global issues like spending as much as $1.4 billion more a month on to keep our country safe in a world of growing and supplement some of the nuclear deal’s existing
climate change, but we won’t allow human everything from shampoo to washing machines.”73 national security threats … They deserve to be provisions, and work with our partners to counter
rights abuses to go unchecked.”72 outfitted with tools that offer protection to all of Iran’s destabilizing behavior in the region, including
us. They deserve research that will allow them with regard to its ballistic missile program.”75
to provide a safe and secure nation for decades
into the future. It is deeply unfortunate that we
cannot vote on a clean bill to reauthorize all of
those programs and more, and that reflects
our shared support for our Armed Forces.”74
ELIZABETH “China is on the rise, using its economic “I think that our trade deals have been “If more money for the Pentagon could solve our “Our intelligence community told us again and Essay, January 2019: “A Foreign Policy for All:
WARREN might to bludgeon its way onto the world negotiated for a very, very long time now security challenges, we would have solved them again: The Iran deal was working to prevent Strengthening Democracy — at Home and Abroad”
stage and offering a model in which to benefit large, multinational corporations, by now. It is time to identify which programs Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. If Iran
Speech, 28 November 2018: “A Foreign
economic gains legitimize oppression.”76 not to benefit the American worker.” actually benefit American security in the 21st continues to abide by the terms of the deal,
Policy that Works for All Americans”80
century, and which programs merely line the you bet I will support returning to it.”79
“What I’d like to see us do is rethink all of our trade
pockets of defense contractors — then pull
policy. And, I have to say, when President Trump
out a sharp knife and make some cuts.”78
says he’s putting tariffs on the table, I think tariffs
are one part of reworking our trade policy overall.”77
BERNIE “My administration will work with allies to “Yeah of course [I would use tariffs], it is used in a “So what I would be prepared to do is to understand “By withdrawing from the Iran nuclear Essay, 24 June 2019: “Ending America’s
SANDERS strengthen global human rights standards and rational way within the context of a broad, sensible that we are now spending more than the next 10 agreement, a move opposed by his own top Endless War: We Must Stop Giving
make every effort to let Beijing know that its trade policy. It is one tool that is available.”82 countries combined — we are spending over $700 security officials, Trump has isolated the US Terrorists Exactly What They Want”
behavior is damaging its international standing and billion a year. At the same time, you have veterans from its closest allies and put us on a dangerous
Speech, 9 October 2018: “Building A Global
undermining relations with the United States.” sleeping out on the streets, major crisis after path to conflict. We should rejoin the deal and
Democratic Movement to Counter Authoritarianism“
major crisis in affordable housing, infrastructure. work with allies to effectively enforce it.”84
“But what we have to say about China in fairness to
I think we have to get our priorities right, and our Speech, 21 September 2017: “John
China and its leadership is if I’m not mistaken they
priorities should include not spending more than Findley Green Foundation lecture”85
have made more progress in addressing extreme
the 10 next nations on earth. As president, I would
poverty than any country in the history of civilization,
certainly look at a very different military budget.”83
so they’ve done a lot of things for their people.”81
12UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE
THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
The key issues for Australia
Australia should be paying close attention to the by investing in the United States’ domestic strength,
shifts in the Democratic Party’s debate on China and code for investing in infrastructure, research and
the related questions of trade policy and Asia policy, development, and greater economic resilience.90
as well as the Middle East and defence spending.
Economic threat and
China, trade and Asia policy Trump’s tariffs
The extent of China hardening in the Democratic
The perceived threat to American jobs posed by the
Party, and across the United States, towards a
Chinese economy and Beijing’s trade practices is the
less co-operative and more competitive policy is
China issue that resonates most with voters, especially
highly significant.86 US voters across the political in ‘Rust Belt’ states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and
spectrum overwhelmingly view China as America’s Pennsylvania that will be key battlegrounds in 2020.
top competitor.87 According to recent polling by Pew Democrats tend to support President Trump’s tougher
Research Center, just 26 per cent of Americans approach to China on trade and economic policy, even
have a favourable view of China, compared to 60 if they do not necessarily support the style or some
per cent with an unfavourable view, the highest level of the substance of his policies. The state of the
since Pew began asking the question in 2005.88 Democratic Party, writ large, and emerging bipartisan
As Thomas Wright has written, unlike every other consensus on China economic issues is best
country or foreign policy issue, China and the US- summarised by Senator Chuck Schumer. Where the
China relationship “directly affects the economy, the leader of the Senate Democrats constantly lambasts
financial system, technological innovation, values, President Trump on a wide array of domestic and
and national security”.89 Notably, outside Washington, foreign policy issues, Schumer supports Trump’s
Democrats’ tough language on China is not especially China hardening: “We have to be really tough on
motivated by Asia-focused geopolitical concerns China. They’ve taken advantage of us… America has
such as China’s rapid military modernisation, island- lost trillions of dollars and millions of jobs because
building in the South China Sea or potential threats China has not played fair. And being tough on China is
to US allies. Rather, whether a candidate cares about the right way to be.”91 These views are broadly shared
labour, trade, currency manipulation, technological by the field of Democratic candidates.
competition, intellectual property, human rights,
Beijing’s influence operations overseas, or democracy The Democratic frontrunners have a mixed approach
versus authoritarianism, Democrats see the to President Trump’s tariffs on China. They call his
Communist Party as presenting an ‘embarrassment trade war reckless, but, when asked, none of the
of riches’ for criticism. leading contenders said they would immediately
drop the tariffs if elected president.92 Progressives
The refrain that the United States should get tough on are most favourably disposed to Trump’s tariffs:
China will be a mainstay of the primary and the general Sanders says he “strongly supports” tariffs against
election campaign. The Democratic frontrunners China but thinks “Trump gets it wrong in terms of
all adopt tough language, with subtle differences implementation”, and Warren says that “tariffs are
between the relative importance of different aspects one part of reworking our trade policy”.93 However,
of the China relationship. However, they vary in their more centrist candidates view Trump’s tariffs as
emphasis on the right balance between competition a “fool’s errand”, a tax on American consumers,
and cooperation in the relationship with Beijing, the who are paying hundreds of dollars more per year
right domains of competition, and how sharply the for ordinary products like “washing machines and
United States should compete. The major candidates shampoos”.94 Buttigieg, Harris and Biden argue and
all suggest that the best way to compete with China is vow to put far more emphasis on different tools in the
13UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE
THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
US President
Donald Trump and
Australia’s Prime
Minister Scott
Morrison hold a
meeting in the
sidelines of the G20
Leaders’ Summit
in Buenos Aires,
November 2018
Photo: Getty
trade relationship. There is widespread agreement Ideology and values
among Democrats that President Trump’s approach
to China is counterproductive because it has Democratic candidates are also adopting an
alienated US allies and partners who could help build increasingly ideological and values-based tone
a wider coalition to try to shape Chinese behaviour. towards the Chinese Communist Party. Earlier
A Democratic administration will want Australia’s this year, Biden said that the United States finds
support for its trade policy towards China. itself in “an ideological struggle… a competition of
systems [and] a competition of values” with Beijing.95
A centrist Democratic administration would likely Buttigieg’s language is stronger, singling out “The
enter office focused on making substantive wins Chinese Communist Party’s shocking treatment
on intellectual property and technology transfer, of the Uighurs and other minorities and growing
as well as potentially re-joining an amended TPP. pressure on Hong Kong” as “symptomatic of a
Technology would also be a key focus for Democrats, broader, and intensifying” ideological competition in
who have criticised President Trump for focusing which “Beijing seems committed to consolidating and
on the industries of the past — such as steel and legitimating authoritarian capitalism as an alternative
autos — without sufficiently engaging with future to the democratic capitalism embraced by the United
technologies. A Democratic administration would also States and its closest allies and partners”.96 For all
focus more bandwidth on building up cyber defences the Democratic candidates, criticising the Communist
and making government investments in technologies Party’s behaviour in Xinjiang simultaneously serves
that will be critical in the ongoing technological many beneficial political objectives. It plays to
competition with China. the narrative that a candidate is tough on Beijing,
14UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE
THE FRONTRUNNERS: FOREIGN POLICY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2020
compassionate towards minorities, and carries administration would likely ask Australia and other
implicit criticism of President Trump’s approach to allies to do more to complement US force posture
minorities, immigration policies (especially towards and help counterbalance China’s growing power
the border with Mexico), admiration for authoritarians and assertiveness in the region. China aside, the
and reluctance to speak about human rights. Given candidates have spent little attention discussing how
Democrats’ focus on the role of allies and partners they would approach other issues in Asia, not least
vis-à-vis China, Canberra can expect Washington North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, competition
to ask Australia to take a stronger unilateral stance in Southeast Asia and alliances.
towards Beijing and join multilateral statements that
criticise the Chinese Communist Party’s approach to
Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Middle East
There are deep, emotional, intra-party divides on
All criticism no strategy Middle East policy. Progressives are coalescing
around a very different approach to those taken by
At this early stage in the campaign, Democrats’ tough the Obama or Clinton administrations.
talk on China has not translated to a coherent China
policy or Asia strategy. The candidates lack an overall Iran policy is shaping as a significant foreign policy
framework for whether they view China as a rival, a issue in this election. The major candidates all
partner, or both.97 All candidates pay some lip service suggest re-joining the Obama-era nuclear deal
to the need to cooperate with Beijing on shared with Iran, but often with different conditions. Their
global priorities such as climate change, terrorism, language features variations of the theme that the
nuclear proliferation and peacekeeping, but these deal is imperfect, but better than the alternatives.
comments are overshadowed by their loud criticisms For example, Biden has promised to “strengthen and
of the Communist Party. The emerging bipartisan extend it [the Iran nuclear deal]”.98 Harris “would also
consensus on China, Democrats’ language on the look toward expanding [the deal]” and “would like
campaign trail, and the increasingly authoritarian and to see it also cover ballistic missile testing”.99 Unlike
uncompromising nature of Xi Jinping’s regime all her more centrist colleagues, Warren’s statement
suggest the US-China relationship will continue to indicates less concern about other aspects of Iran’s
move in a more competitive direction no matter who behaviour, promising that if Iran abides by the terms,
wins the election. her administration would support returning to it.100 Re-
negotiating the deal will be highly complex, requiring
Finally, from the perspective of allies and partners, buy-in from the regime in Tehran and other parties to
the absence of discussion of broader Asia policy is the deal, amidst likely opposition from Republicans,
notable but not surprising at this early stage of the some powerful Democrats and Israel. Whether
campaign. There is little indication so far of how tough President Trump is re-elected or defeated by a
talk on China would translate into the projection of US Democrat, Washington will want to enlist Australian
military power across the Pacific. Many Democrats support for an Iran policy that will feature military
hold the contradictory preferences for competing pressure, sanctions, or both.
with China while cutting the defence budget. Even if
a candidate such as Joe Biden wants to re-invigorate Democratic candidates are also re-evaluating long-
US force posture in the region, it is unlikely that standing US policy towards Israel and Saudi Arabia.
he would ask Congress to significantly increase Israel has become a divisive issue within parts of
defence spending in a difficult political and budgetary the party, defined by the differences between older,
environment or meaningfully shift military assets powerful pro-Israel members of Congress and those
out of the Middle East. Regardless, any Democratic who argue that the United States should reduce its
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