2019 The mystery of the electric car - L'Observatoire Cetelem

2019 The mystery of the electric car - L'Observatoire Cetelem
The mystery
of the electric car
2019 The mystery of the electric car - L'Observatoire Cetelem

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2019 The mystery of the electric car - L'Observatoire Cetelem

The automotive sector developed and prospered thanks to an
abundance of cheap oil with high energy efficiency. For over a
century, its domination has been unparalleled. Similarly, for
decades, cars have become increasingly dominant without
any consideration for the environmental factors.                       Electricity,
Then the tide turned. Raw materials have become scarce              the clean energy
and expensive, due to an unremitting rise in global demand
and the realisation that the reserves may run out. The time           of the future
to take action to protect the environment has also come.
This has put the oil sector and the waste it generates firmly
in the hot seat.

It has therefore become necessary to innovate and find
solutions. Subject to increasingly stringent regulations,
manufacturers have improved the performance of fuel-powered
vehicles, by reducing fuel consumption and their polluting emissions. At the same time, the automotive
industry has invested in the development of new types of engine like hybrid and fully electric cars.

Manufacturers have long been sceptical of the electrical car. 10 years ago, only a few people believed in it.
Since 2012, L’Observatoire Cetelem has devoted its annual survey to the electric car. Since then, there
have been a large number of public policies in support of EVs, which have been mirrored by manufacturer

The success of COP21 prompted the nations to commit to taking measures to reduce greenhouse gases.
The Dieselgate and rigged engine scandal has only added to the debate surrounding fuel-powered vehicles,
forcing manufacturers to speed up the development of EVs. Consequently, many new fully electric models
will be coming onto the market over the next few years. The price of batteries has dropped significantly,
and their range is increasing.

On paper, the stars seem to be aligning for the electric car to occupy a significant share of the automotive
landscape: technological progress, lower prices, public policy incentives, widening of the offer, positive
image in the eyes of motorists, etc.

Although the electric car has everything it needs to succeed, sales are still relatively small. This is the
mystery of the electric car.

Happy reading!
2019 The mystery of the electric car - L'Observatoire Cetelem

The economic and marketing analyses, as well as the forecasts, were conducted in partnership with
C-Ways (www.c-ways.com), a survey and consulting firm that specialises in Anticipation Marketing.

The field work of the quantitative consumer survey was steered by Harris Interactive in June and July 2018
in South Africa, Germany, Belgium, Brazil, China, Spain, United States, France, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Norway,                                                       Insufficient
Poland, Portugal, United Kingdom and Turkey. In total, 16 countries and more than 10,600 individuals were
interviewed online (CAWI collection method). These individuals aged 18 to 65 come from national samples
                                                                                                                                                  Modern               public
that are representative of each country. The quota method was employed to ensure that the sample was                             Second car
representative (gender, age). 3,000 interviews were conducted in France and 500 in each of the other countries.
                                                                                                                        Positive image               Car sharing      facilities
Norway has therefore been included for the first time in L’Observatoire Cetelem de l’Automobile. Given
that the 2019 topic deals with the electric vehicle, there was no option but to include the country in               Pleasant to drive                           No second-hand
the world that is most concerned by the matter in terms of its share of electric vehicles, i.e. 21% of its                                                           market
vehicle sales in 2017.                                                                                                         Elitist                   Practical

A qualitative study – from which are extracted the verbatim accounts quoted during the study – was
                                                                                                                    Silent        Long charging time                    Sophisticated

added to complement the programme in France. Six focus groups on the electric vehicle were organised
by Harris Interactive in Paris, Lyon and Bordeaux in July 2018.                                                   Maintenance       More expensive

    Country codes
                                                                                                                    network journeys to purchase
Belgium (BE), Brazil (BR), China (CN), France (FR), Germany (DE), Italy (IT), Japan (JP), Mexico (MX),            inadequate
Norway (NW), Poland (PL), Portugal (PT), South Africa (ZA), Spain (ES), Turkey (TR),                                          Dangerous           Few models
United Kingdom (UK), United States (US).
                                                                                                                   Short battery life              available
    Note – technical benchmark
The study will focus on the market and future of electric vehicles (EVs). EV refers to any vehicle that has
                                                                                                                    Eco-friendly                         Reliable    Dynamic
only one electric motor powered by a battery and performs all of its journeys in electric mode. A range                            Relatively little maintenance
extender is sometimes associated with the EV. This is an auxiliary power unit that does not propel the car
but recharges the EV before the battery runs out. In some cases, the plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) may be         Uncertainty regarding Economical to run
combined with the EV. It has two engines, i.e. an electric motor for completing part of the journeys in elec-     its second-hand value
tric mode (with a range of about 25 miles), while the other internal combustion engine is used for longer
distances. These electrical solutions are often combined with so-called combustion engines, i.e. internal         Gateway to the city
combustion or explosion-type engines. These engines, which run on fossil fuels (petrol, diesel, gas) made
predominantly from oil, are sometimes slightly “hybridised“. An electric motor supports the internal                           Limited range
combustion engine and reduces the energy consumption during the key acceleration phases. These light
hybrid vehicles are non-rechargeable and are therefore not included in the EV category. Finally, another
solution that can be described as electric is the vehicle powered by a fuel cell that runs on hydrogen fuel.
This vehicle can be used for long journeys that exceed the limits imposed by the range of a standard EV.
Given its cost, which is still very high, it is currently restricted to demonstration sales and captive fleets.
Only 3,000 were sold worldwide in 2017 and it is difficult to foresee its mass development before 2030.
This is why it will not be addressed in this Observatoire.

4                                                                                                                                                                                          5
2019 The mystery of the electric car - L'Observatoire Cetelem

       Thanks to its specific technical features, it would seem
     that electric vehicles (EV) can provide a solution to some
    of the issues facing the environment, the economy, industry
 and society. However, there are still some real ongoing technical
 and organisational issues as well as certain potential obstacles
to its development. Once these have been overcome, there can be
    no doubt that motorists will ultimately take full advantage
                     of its strengths and merits.

2019 The mystery of the electric car - L'Observatoire Cetelem

ENVIRONMENT:                                                                                                    Fig. 1
                                                                                                                           CO2 emissions from well-to-wheel (WTW)
                                                                                                                           In g/km WTW

                                                                                                                           Source: IFP EN

                                                                                                                   Electric vehicle (100% coal)                                                                                   180

                                                                                                                  Electric vehicle (Poland mix)                                                                110
   oad transport (cars and lorries), which produces about 17% of global
   greenhouse gas emissions, is the third largest source of emissions                                           Electric vehicle (Germany mix)                                              75

behind energy generation and industry. The impact on the environment is                                               Electric vehicle (EU mix)                                    60

noticeable not only globally, but also locally.                                                                   Electric vehicle (France mix)      12

                                                                                                                            Natural gas hybrid                                              75

    The global challenges of mobility                  should be measured for each type of power station
                                                                                                                                 Diesel hybrid                                                          95

At COP21, which was held in Paris at the end of        or source of electricity production. In most cases, it             Petrol hybrid engine                                                                 110

2015, most states made a commitment to reduce          is calculated for the “energy mix“ of a geographical
their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order          area or country.
                                                                                                                    Diesel combustion engine                                                                                132

to combat global warming, in a context where
automotive fleets and car use are on the rise in       From “well-to-wheel“, the EV dominates petrol and
the emerging countries. Although reducing per-         diesel in terms of CO2 emissions in almost every
                                                                                                                           Impact on the climate of electric cars per country in 2015
                                                                                                                Fig. 2     In thousands of tCO2e
vehicle emissions can contribute to achieving          case. Conventional combustion engines only out-                     Source: International Energy Agency
the objectives set, “promoting“ electric vehicles      perform the EV when its electricity is generated
is probably a more effective and sustainable solu-     from coal. Given their predominantly nuclear
tion to tackling this issue in part.                   and hydroelectric energy capabilities, French and
                                                                                                                              Countries where electric cars reduce                 Countries where electric cars increase
                                                                                                                              greenhouse gas emissions                             greenhouse gas emissions
                                                       Norwegian EVs are particularly eco-friendly while
    The EV needs to come clean                         those of the United States and China, to an even
EVs are often called “clean“ because they do not       greater extent, are not yet using suitable primary
                                                                                                                Norway -100

emit any CO2 or other gases or particles from          energy sources (Fig. 2). In the future, the EV’s                        France -65

“tank-to-wheel“, while not taking into account the     advantage will continue to grow as electricity pro-                                             Sweden -10
emissions generated when the electricity needed        duction becomes decarbonised with the increasing
for the batteries is produced. A true analysis must    use of renewable energies as pledged by the COP21
                                                                                                                                                       Canada -10

actually go from “well-to-wheel“ with the inclu-       signatories.
                                                                                                                                                    Netherlands -8

sion of upstream emissions (Fig. 1). In theory, this                                                                                                        Spain -4

                                                                                                                                                              Italy -2

                                                                                                                                                          Portugal -2

                                                                                                                                                          Germany -2

                                                                                                                                                  United Kingdom -2

                                                                                                                                                     South Africa -1

                                                                                                                                                     South Korea -1

                                                                                                                                                                         6 India

                                                                                                                                                                            15 United States

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        225 China

8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              9
2019 The mystery of the electric car - L'Observatoire Cetelem

                                                            networks, when the vehicle is connected to the grid
     Taking the life cycle into account
 A truly global assessment must also rely on an ana-        with a so-called Smart Grid system. These same           THE POWER
 lysis of the entire life cycle of the EV, including that   batteries could also be used to store renewable
 of its battery, from its construction to managing
 its disposal at the end of its life. A report by the
                                                            energy production, which is intermittent by nature
                                                            and not necessarily available when it is needed.
                                                                                                                     OF THE PUBLIC AUTHORITIES
 Ricardo firm estimates that the production of an           These two-way exchanges between the network
 “average“ petrol-powered car produces emissions
 that are equivalent to 5.6 tonnes of CO2 whereas
 the emissions of an equivalent electric car come to
                                                            and the battery can continue during a second life.
                                                            After losing a significant proportion of their ini-
                                                            tial capacity, they would be removed from EVs and
                                                                                                                     In order to shift the boundaries, develop a new sector and change buying
                                                                                                                      habits that have become established over more than a century, public
                                                                                                                     policies are essential.
 8.8 tonnes, nearly half of which are associated with       installed in apartment buildings, for example, to
 the production of the battery. However, the same           continue to play a role in supporting the network.
 report estimates that over its entire life cycle, the                                                                   International awareness                                                                                             favours the EV. At the national level, most countries
 electric car will generate only 80% of the emissions          he absence of pollutants,
                                                              T                                                      Given the current situation, public policies are not                                                                     also promote the development of EVs using both
 of the petrol-powered car.                                   a local benefit                                        always clearly understood, although this is the                                                                          coercive and incentive measures. The most pollu-
                                                            Although the global CO2 assessment is not positive       consistent expectation of 70% of the people inter-                                                                       ting vehicles are discouraged by high taxes and low
     The impact of batteries                                in every case, the benefit of electric vehicles at the   viewed for this study (Fig. 3). There are schemes                                                                        quotas while the registrations of clean vehicles like
 Firstly, battery production has some very negative         local level is undisputed. Without combustion, there     to promote the electric vehicle, albeit on a variety                                                                     EVs are supported by various forms of subsidies.
 upstream environmental impacts in the develo-              can be no emissions. Without an exhaust pipe, there      of different scales. At the European level, Euro
 ping countries where the lithium, cobalt, nickel or        can be no discharge. EVs do not emit any nitrogen        standards require manufacturers to reduce pollu-
 manganese, which are needed for its production,            oxide, volatile organic compounds, particles or other    tant emissions from “tank-to-wheel“, which in fact
 are extracted, processed and transformed. It is            harmful gases. Although tyres and brake pads do
 therefore necessary to ensure that the production          indeed leave some materials on the roads, the EV’s
 is ramped up in accordance with the sustainable            engine braking and energy recovery system reduces                           In your opinion, should there be more, fewer or no change in the number of policies
 development requirements. The same goes for the            any such losses and emissions.
                                                                                                                         Fig. 3         (national and local, financial and non-financial) supporting electric vehicles?
                                                                                                                                        In %
 cell transformation and battery production that is
 currently located in Asia for the most part.               The lungs of those who live in cities have everything
                                                                                                                                        Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

                                                            to gain. The same can be said for their ears. The                                                                                                                                                     Average over 16 countries 65% | 9% | 26%
 Further downstream, recycling battery parts is also        electric car generates virtually no noise pollution.               More               Fewer                   No change in the number
 essential not only for the environmental assess-           Only the sounds of the wheels rolling on the road
 ment of the EV but also for its cost. The arduous          and the displacement of the air are noticeable. As
                                                                                                                                                                              80                                                                                                                                               80

 process of recovering rare materials makes it pos-         we will see below, this essential element did not go
                                                                                                                                                                                             73                                                                                                                                              74
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         70                                                                     70
 sible to reduce recycling costs and can ensure the         unnoticed by those interviewed by L’Observatoire                                                                                                                                                                         63
 self-financing of dedicated structures. Since 2006,        Cetelem, 90% of whom said that EVs are quiet and
                                                                                                                     60                                                                                                                                               60

 the law in Europe requires the recycling of 50% of         non-polluting in the city.
                                                                                                                                   55                           55

 the mass of lithium-ion batteries.
                                                                                                                                                  47       46                                                                                                    47

                                                                                                                                                                         35                                               36        35
                                                                                                                              33             32                                                                                                                                 33
      vehicle that is useful
     A                                                                                                                                                                                                                         29

     when it is not moving                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            19
 From an environmental point of view, EVs also
                                                                                                                                                                                                       18                                                                                                                 17
                                                                                                                                        14                                              14                                                                                                                                              13
 show themselves to be useful when they are immo-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     11                                                                                              12
                                                                                                                                                                     9                            10
                                                                                                                          7                                                                                                                   7              8             7              8                 8                                     7
                                                                                                                                                       6                           6                                                                                                                    6                           6
 bile. A private vehicle spends most of its time par-

 ked. During periods of peak demand for power,
 the electricity available in the batteries could be
                                                                                                                          FR        DE             UK            BE                IT             ES         PT            NW                 PL         US                JP         ZA            TR           MX             BR            CN

 used to help even out fluctuations in the electricity

10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     11
2019 The mystery of the electric car - L'Observatoire Cetelem

     Financial support                                   could provide the needed impetus. In Norway, there
      for the transition                                  have been multiple ambitious public incentive mea-                                Evaluation of the total cost calculated over 4 years
 Most of the support measures concern allowances          sures. Public subsidies have made EVs cheaper, while
                                                                                                                             Fig. 4         Source: BEUC

 and subsidies to reduce the difference that still        urban regulations have granted them many car
 exists between the cost of an EV and its fossil fuel     parking spaces and facilities. As a result, EVs now
 equivalent. Support schemes to finance charging          account for 21% of total sales. In contrast, when the                       Electric car               Petrol car             Petrol car without superior technical performance

 station infrastructures and the implementation           subsidies are removed or reduced too quickly before
 of public and shared e-mobility systems are also         the cost to run electric cars has dropped below that
 needed.                                                  of fuel-powered vehicles, the sales growth stops.
                                                                                                                                  €27,550                                                                                                           €27,500

                                                          This is what happened, for example, in Denmark.

 Today, the development of the electric vehicle can-                                                                                                                          €26,550
 not be done without strong and lasting financial
 incentives. “Indirect“ support such as free urban

 tolls and car parks, or access to dedicated bus lanes,                                                                           €25,550                                     €25,550                               €25,500



      COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF EVs                                                                                                                                                                                                       €24,500

      Comparing the total cost of different energy        The changes in the price of oil and its taxation
                                                                                                                                   2015                                        2020                                   2025                           2030

      solutions is not easy (Fig. 4). Many parame-        as well as the fall in the price of batteries, which
      ters have to be taken into consideration: pur-      account for half the price of an EV, will determine                               Mileage profile compatible with EVs
      chase price of the vehicle (including tax),         the exact rate of convergence. Obviously, these                   Fig. 5          Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

      maintenance costs, fuel or electricity usage        results deserve to be broken down by type of
      expenses, depreciation and resale value on the      user, especially according to the annual mileage
      second-hand market, etc. For a product that         (Fig. 5). The higher it is, the greater the incentive
      is still relatively new and rare on the market,     will be for the motorist to bear an additional cost

                                                                                                                  Daily mileage
      such as the EV, the future value and second-        on buying the vehicle in order to recover the cost
      hand prices can only be estimated approxima-        during its use.
                                                                                                                                                                                            DAILY MILEAGE TOO HIGH

      tely. Most of the comparative studies, however,
                                                                                                                                                                                             EV RANGE TOO SHORT

      indicate that the total cost (i.e. purchase cost    To smooth out these ongoing price differences
      plus running costs) of EVs is still higher than     when buying a vehicle and resolve the uncer-
      that of fuel-powered vehicles, but that this cost   tainty associated with the residual value of an
      is shrinking rapidly. The European Consumer         EV and its battery, long-term leasing, with or
      Organisation concluded that in a comparison         without an option to purchase, can be a great
                                                                                                                                                ANNUAL MILEAGE TOO LOW
                                                                                                                                                                                                           ELECTRIC VEHICLE AREA OF INTEREST
                                                                                                                                            TO OFFSET THE EXTRA COST OF THE
      between the fossil fuel Opel Astra and the fully    alternative to the conventional option of buying                                                 EV

      electric Nissan LEAF, the total cost of the lat-    the car outright. The investment is smoothed
      ter was 8% higher in 2015. This difference will     out over time, the maintenance costs are known
      drop to 4% in 2020, and then to 1.5% in 2025,       in advance and the distributor is contractually
      to represent only 0.5% by 2030.                     liable for the residual value of the EV.                                                                                                                                             Annual mileage

12                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            13
2019 The mystery of the electric car - L'Observatoire Cetelem

     It’s time to charge                                                    ging network will have to be deployed to reassure                         Facilitating e-mobility systems                       of the EV. On the one hand, the increase in volumes
 Because the battery of the electric vehicle must be                        those who are hesitating to get an EV and those                         The experts agree that the EV will be all the more      generated by these shared EV offers will reduce
 regularly recharged, having access to a charging point                     motorists who need a single vehicle for every type                      attractive economically and environmentally if it       battery production costs through accelerated eco-
 is an advantage. For people living in a house, it is easy                  of journey. What’s more, such an infrastructure                         is used intensively. We’re thinking of the last mile    nomies of scale. On the other hand, it will prepare
 to install a charging device, and particularly easy to                     will require particular specifications. Ideally, quick                  when delivering goods in a city, the shared fleets      public opinion and motorists and get them used to
 recharge a vehicle overnight. For the residents of a                       – and therefore more expensive – charging stations                      of company vehicles or even those used for shared       the idea, thereby influencing their future personal
 block of flats, it will be preferable for the car park to                  will be required, especially on motorways. Then,                        mobility services (carsharing fleet). Thus, the coor-   choices.
 have a network connection. If this is not the case, the                    a typical “chicken and egg“ problem arises. Char-                       dination and structuring of public policies at the
 regulatory framework could facilitate this. Another                        ging stations will only be installed if enough EVs                      national and local level – cities and urban hubs –
 option is to recharge the battery at the workplace.                        plug in to make them profitable, but there will only                    are essential for the promotion and development
 Here again, appropriate regulations and taxation                           be enough EVs if there are enough charging faci-
 would speed up the deployment of charging points                           lities on the roads... The public authorities must,
 in the corporate world.                                                    once again, take measures to bear some of the risk
                                                                            and costs borne by the motorway operators and
 However, having access to a charging facility at                           energy providers. In 2016, the number of public
 home or at the workplace will be insufficient to                           charging points increased at the same rate as the
 fulfil every need – particularly that of reassuring                        number of EVs on the roads. The vast majority of
 those who are more concerned about running out                             EVs were being recharged on private roads (Fig. 6).
 of power. Given the current range limitations and
 the impossibility of replacing an empty battery
 with a full battery, it appears that a road char-

                Growth in the number of charging points in the world, 2010-2016
     Fig. 6     In thousands
                Sources: IEA + EAFO (2017)                                                                                                  2,000

                   Private charging points

                   Public charging points - fast

                   Public charging points - slow



                                                               200                                                             200
                                      100                                              100
                25                                 20                50                                                               50
     0    0               0     0                        0                 10                10                  15

         2010                  2011                     2012              2013               2014               2015                 2016

14                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           15
2019 The mystery of the electric car - L'Observatoire Cetelem

     CURRENT EXAMPLES OF POLICIES TO PROMOTE                                                                     United Kingdom                                United States
     ELECTRIC VEHICLES                                                                                      •S ubsidy model based on the CO 2 emitted     • “ Corporate Average Fuel Economy“
                                                                                                               per km and the zero-emission vehicles          (CAFE), a regulation designed to improve
          China                                           Germany                                              (5,800 USD for the EVs with battery,           the average fuel consumption of vehicles
     • Exemption from acquisition taxes and         • €4,000 discount on the purchase of a                   3,300 USD for the plug-in hybrid               that will provide bonuses for EVs.
        indirect taxes from 5,100 to 8,700 USD.         battery EV and €3,000 discount on plug-in              vehicles).                                  • Tax credit of 2,500 to 7,500 USD capped
     • L ocal subsidies capped at 50% of the           hybrid vehicles, for up to 400,000 vehicles         • Tax benefit: exemption from fuel taxes         at 200,000 units sold per manufacturer.
        amount granted by the state subsidies.          until 2020 or €600 m of subsidies.                     and import taxes for EVs and reduction      • Mandate to produce zero emission
     • S tarting in 2017, 20% reduction in 2016     • The car manufacturers will finance 50%                 for plug-in hybrid vehicles, reduced           vehicles in 9 states.
        subsidies, with the option to adjust this       of the subsidy, while the government will              taxation for company vehicles.              • In some states, purchase discounts and
        policy according to the impact on the           finance the remaining 50%.                          • Government expenditure plan of more            tax exemptions.
        market until 2020.                           • Exemption from road tax for 10 years and               than 770 million USD between 2015 and
     • In 7 major urban centres, the restrictions      then for 5 years from 2021.                            2020 to encourage the production and
        on electric vehicle number plates have       • Reduction in taxes on company vehicles.                 purchase of Ultra-Low Emission Vehicles
        been lifted.                                 • Locally, free parking and access to bus lanes.          (ULEV): target of achieving 100% sales of
     • L ocally, bus lanes may be used except                                                                 new zero-emission vehicles by 2040.
        at peak times, and the tolls and parking                                                            • “Go Ultra-Low City“ model: measures
        spaces are free.
                                                          Japan                                                to support very low emission vehicles
                                                     •P  urchase subsidies according to the                   in several cities including London (free
                                                        battery capacity (e.g. the Nissan Leaf                 parking, access to bus lanes, etc.).
                                                        30 kWh battery: 3,000 USD).

     • No-claims bonus model based on CO 2          • Locally, exemption from paying tolls and
        emitted per km: €6,300 no-claims bonus          access to restricted traffic lanes.
        for EVs with a battery and €1,000 for
        plug-in hybrid vehicles, up to €10,000
        for EVs with a battery and €3,500 for

        plug-in hybrid vehicles when replacing       •E  xemption on the purchase tax:
        an old diesel vehicle.                          11,600 USD.                                       uch more than just protecting
                                                                                                         M                                                 vehicles) will take time and must be managed
     • Tax credit for companies buying electric     • E xemption from VAT on EVs with                  the environment                                   with skill. Otherwise, the European car indus-
        cars.                                           a battery (25% of the price of the vehicle      Whether it is saving the planet, improving air     try could, for example, suffer from the decline
     • Exemption from taxes on electric                before tax), including for EVs with             quality in the cities or reducing the dependence   in its sales of fuel-powered vehicles as they
        and hydrogen vehicles.                          a leased battery. Purchase discount             on oil without simply transferring this depen-     are replaced by EVs imported from China... the
     • S tarting in 2017, 50% of the                   on plug-in hybrid vehicles.                     dence onto another energy source (e.g. nuclear),   Middle Kingdom is driving this market more than
        government’s fleet of vehicles is to be      • E xemption from road tax, tolls and ferry       there are many challenges to overcome that are     any other country in order not only to improve
        replaced by electric vehicles.                  charges.                                        of utmost importance for governments. However,     the air quality of its cities, but also to impose its
                                                     • Continuation of this policy on EVs with         the plan to build up an electrical sector while    industrial clout in this sector.
                                                        a battery until 2020.                           another is dismantled (i.e. the fuel-powered
                                                     • Since 2016, the free parking measures for
                                                        electric vehicles have been managed by
                                                        the town halls.

16                                                                                                                                                                                                            17

                                                                                                               tricity itself. Although there are certain avenues of        technology could revolutionise EVs in the next five
                                                                                                               research and technical solutions, the progress will          years. For a greatly reduced cost, the range would
                                                                                                               only be worthwhile if it is shared by all. In other          more than double, and the charging time would be
                                                                                                               words, if the improvements in batteries do not trans-        limited to just a few minutes. The prospect of an
                                                                                                               late into prohibitive and unaffordable costs for the         electric car that is more practical and more com-
                                                                                                               ordinary motorist.                                           petitive than any other engine.

                                                                                                                 I nnovating to make electricity
                                                                                                                  the best solution
                                                                                                               The sector is becoming more organised, research
                                                                                                               efforts are accelerating, and partnerships are for-
                                                                                                               ming between manufacturers and specialists in                   The new generations of hydrogen fuel cells
                                                                                                               battery chemistry or recycling. It looks as if the              are often put forward as the future of the
                                                                                                               gamble is paying off. Despite the improvements                  electric vehicle. Although the number of
                                                                                                               made in terms of range, charging speed, safety                  models could be counted on one hand and
                                                                                                               and durability, the cost of batteries has been fal-             the hydrogen fuel cell distribution network
                                                                                                               ling for several years now. The scheduled increase              is still in its infancy, this technology offers
                                                                                                               in volumes would indicate that there is a good
                                                                                                                                                                               great promise with a recharging time of 3 to
                                                                                                               chance prices will drop further (Fig. 7 and Fig. 8).            5 minutes and a range of 700 km.
                                                                                                               Better yet, the new so-called solid-state battery
                                                                                                                            Cost of lithium-ion batteries per kilowatt hour

F  or an increasing number of countries and cities, the days of the fuel-                                       Fig. 7      Source: Bloomberg

   powered vehicle are numbered. The Netherlands in 2030, Scotland in 2032,
 France in 2040 and Paris 10 years before that.

     A choice that is disappearing                     China, etc.), colossal R&D investments have been
 All over the world, there are already a large num-    agreed and new dedicated production capacities
 ber of low-emission zones with restricted access      have been installed.

 to petrol and diesel vehicles. Mandatory quotas on
                                                                                                                                                     Current     Estimate

 EV sales have been in place for a long time in the      I ncreased range, but it comes                        $800

 United States and will be implemented next year          at a price
 in China. If you add CO2 reduction standards, which   The technical and marketing challenges are as
 are becoming increasingly draconian, manufactu-       important as the environmental and industrial

 rers have no choice but to offer EVs.                 issues. To win over customers, the EV market needs
                                                       batteries that can deliver an adequate range and         $400

     Changing programmes                               be recharged as quickly as possible. Not only must
 With a varying degree of celerity and intensity,      they be able to provide for 90% of everyday needs,
 and sometimes only to protect brand image, all        limited to a dozen miles or so, but also for the

 manufacturers have begun to develop specific pro-     rare long journeys, which are intimately associated
 grammes. Brands have been created (e.g. Polestar      with what motorists expect of a “real“ car. However,       $0

 for Volvo, EQ for Mercedes, Sol for Volkswagen in     the problem of electricity storage is as old as elec-
                                                                                                                        2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

18                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 19

                  Annual demand for electric vehicle battery power                                                                                                                 Unstoppable growth                                     There is therefore still significant growth potential
     Fig. 8       In gigawatt-hour                                                                                                                                               In 2017, EV sales reached 1.2 million units wor-         to recoup the investments made by the manufactu-
                                                                                                                                                                                 ldwide, i.e. an increase of 60% in 2016 (Fig. 9).        rers in developing the EV. Because the manufactu-
                  Source: Bloomberg

                                                                                                                                                                                 However, this figure represents only 1.5% of new         rers’ objectives in terms of sales volumes are huge.
                                                                                                                                                                                 car sales. These sales are also concentrated in          Although, in the past, the announcements and pro-
                                                                                                                                                                                 certain geographical areas. 8 countries (China, United   jects of manufacturers have not always come to

                                                                                                                                                                                 States, Japan, Norway, United Kingdom, France,           fruition, it would appear that the current impetus
                                                                                                                                                                     600         Germany and Sweden) account for 90% of global            is irreversible. As we progress from a niche solution
                                                                                                                                                                                 sales. China dominates the market with 600,000 units,    to its development for mainstream use, the current
                                                                                                                                                                                 80% of which are electric vehicles and 20% are           and future perception of EVs by motorists and their

                                                                                                                                                                                 plug-in hybrid vehicles.                                 expectations becomes even more crucial.


                                                                                                                85      100
                                                                                        45        50     63
                                        20      25           30       35       40
      0       5       10       15

 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027                                                                    2028 2029 2030

                                                                                                                                                                                     MANUFACTURERS’ DECLARED OBJECTIVES IN TERMS
                                                                                                                                                                                     OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE VOLUMES – 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      100,000 EV sales in 2017
                  Fleet of electric cars in the world
  Fig. 9          In thousands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      15 to 25% of BMW group sales by 2025
                  Source: AIE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30,000 annual EV sales by 2017
                                                                                                                                                           1,980 1,129               Chevrolet (GM)

                                                                                                                                                                                     Chinese manufacturers            4.52 million annual EV sales by 2020

                                                                                                                                                                                     Daimler                          100,000 annual EV sales by 2020
                                    Battery electric car

                                                                                                                                                                                     Ford                             13 new EV models by 2020
                                    Rechargeable hybrid car

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Two-thirds of sales in 2030 will be electric vehicles (including
                                                                                                                                               1,240 742
                                    Total number
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and “fuel cell“ vehicles)

                                                                                                                                                                                     Renault–Nissan                   1.5 million electric vehicles sold in 2020 (total sales)
                                                                                                                                     750 489

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      500,000 annual EV sales within 2 years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1 million annual EV sales by 2020
                                                                                                                              704                                                    Tesla
                                                                                                                          400 304

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2 to 3 million annual EV sales by 2025
                                                                                                         179    220 161

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1 million electric vehicles sold in 2025 (total sales)
                                                                                             61        150 29
              2            2            3            5                7        14
          2       0    2       0    3       0   5        0        7       0   14    0
                                                                                         60       1                                                                                  Volvo
          2005         2006         2007        2008              2009        2010           2011       2012     2013         2014    2015       2016        2017

20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           21

 Cars are the most durable and most expensive consumer goods.
  Purchasing a vehicle is therefore a significant act. Not only do
the environmental and macroeconomic issues run very deep, but
certain conditions and criteria must also be fulfilled in the eyes of
 the motorists for them to be won over. The electric vehicle is no
 exception to these rules. There’s no denying that the technology
breaks with the past, yet it remains, first and foremost, a vehicle.
  Despite the fact that there is an emotional aspect to the act of
  purchasing, buying a car essentially boils down to the need for
   mobility. So, in order to determine the potential and future of
 the electric vehicle, it is necessary to check whether its different
characteristics are compatible with the expectations of motorists.


 RANGE,                                                                                                                         What are all the reasons why you could not choose a fully electric vehicle
                                                                                                                        Fig. 11 if you were buying a car?
                                                                                                                                In %, several possible answers
 A KEY PRODUCT FEATURE                                                                                                             Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

                                                                                                                            The range          It’s too expensive                                                                   I am not equipped

                                                                                                                                                                     It’s takes too long
          t present, the limited range is the main weakness of the electric vehicle                                        is too short
                                                                                                                                                                         to recharge
                                                                                                                                                                                               The range
                                                                                                                                                                                              is too short
                                                                                                                                                                                                               It’s too expensive     to recharge the
          and an undeniable obstacle to it gaining the acceptance of households.
                                                                                                                                49%                  60%                   41%                   41%                 49%                  38%

     Short-term vision                                               Always going further
 83% of those who replied claimed this limitation to            The short range appears in the top 3 reasons                                                                                                   ES     NW      US
 be a feature of the electric vehicle, with the Ger-            why those who replied would not buy an EV. This
                                                                                                                           FR     DE      UK      BE      IT        PT    JP     CN

 mans being the most inclined to think this (93%)               weakness was pointed out by 42% of the sample
 and the Turks being the least likely to believe this, in       (Fig. 11). 57% correctly estimate the range to
                                                                                                                                                                        The range of
                                                                                                                                               It’s too expensive

 relative terms (69%) (Fig. 10). This feature supports          be between 100 and 300 km. With the excep-
                                                                                                                                                                      available models                         It’s too expensive
                                                                                                                            The range                                 is too narrow to     I am not equipped

 the image of a vehicle that is reserved for drivers            tion of the Tesla models, which boast a range of
                                                                                                                           is too short                              compare the offers      to recharge the                        I prefer a hybrid
 making short trips for 70% of those who responded.             500 km, most electric vehicles on the European

 Once again, the Germans are the most likely to say             market fall within this range. For example, the                 41%                  70%                   41%                   29%                 63%                  25%
 so (86%), while the Portuguese are far from sharing            Citroën C-Zero, the Renault ZOE ZE 22 kWh and the
 this point of view (59%).                                      Volkswagen e-Golf 7 respectively have a manu-
                                                                facturer’s range of 150 km, 210 km and 300 km.                                    ZA      MX                                                          BR

                                                                                                                                               It’s too expensive
                                                                                                                        I am not equipped
         In your opinion, is the limited range apt or inapt                                                               to recharge the                            It’s takes too long
 Fig. 10 when describing the features of fully electric vehicles?                                                             battery
         In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
                                                                                                                                                                         to recharge

             Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
                                                                                        Average over 16 countries 83%
                                                                                                                                39%                  66%                   35%

            93%                                                                                                                                    PL     TR
     91%                    90%                                 90%                                             90%
                    84%              83%      84%
                                                    80%                80%
                                                                                   78%            77%                                                                                                               MOTORIST
                                                                                                                        What’s more, motorists are well aware of the

                                                                                                                        difference between the declared range and the
                                                                                                                        actual range. This difference is due to the style
                                                                                                                                                                                           ”It’s scary to think that on leaving a city, you

                                                                                                                        of driving, the use of comfort features such as
                                                                                                                                                                                           get 300 km and then, nothing. If you are off the
                                                                                                                                                                                           beaten track, where can you recharge?”
                                                                                                                        the air conditioning, heating, radio and especially
                                                                                                                        the weather – battery life is drastically reduced
                                                                                                                                                                                           ”Driving with the heating switched off at a
                                                                                                                        during periods of extreme cold.
     FR     DE      UK       BE       IT      ES    PT    NW    PL      US   JP    ZA       TR     MX     BR    CN                                                                         temperature of -9°C, or reducing the range by
                                                                                                                                                                                           40 km because the heating, ventilation, lights
                                                                                                                                                                                           and wipers are on.”

24                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  25

 In theory, battery life should not be an obstacle                     is therefore attributable to psychological factors               lways being able to recharge
                                                                                                                                       A                                                          the cost of installing a domestic charging station is
 because 86% of those who replied cover less than                      more than functional features. The reluctance to                the batteries                                              borne by the motorist. In France, the price of such
 100 km per day. While an electric vehicle may be                      embrace the electric vehicle will remain strong as            Given the battery life limitations, the need to have         a device fluctuates between €1,000 to €2,000, with
 suitable for most of these motorists, the limit on the                long as there is no significant improvement in bat-           regular access to a charging station is important.           a tax credit of 30%.
 range, the journey planning, battery charge mana-                     tery life. 40% of motorists claim that they would only        88% of those who replied associate electric vehicle
 gement and anxiety about running out of charge                        be ready to buy an electric vehicle when the range            use with the need to have access to a charging
 outweigh the benefits for many users. The barrier                     exceeds 400 km (Fig. 12).                                     point at home or at work (Fig. 13). For many, the
                                                                                                                                     only solution to this limitation is to get some work
                                                                                                                                     done on your home and install a compatible char-
                                                                                                                                     ging socket with the corresponding extra cost.
         What minimum range would you find acceptable in order to buy a fully electric vehicle?                                      Indeed, this aspect comes up in Spain, Norway,                                   MOTORIST
 Fig. 12 In %                                                                                                                        United States, Brazil, Poland and Turkey as an
             Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem                                                                                          obstacle to buying an electric vehicle.                                          QUOTES
        15 14                                           Less than 100 km                      Between 100 and 199 km                 But, as 82% of those who responded have a parking
                                                                                                                                     space in a private or sheltered space, access to a
                     25                                                                                                                                                                           “I have no way of charging my vehicle where
                                                                                                                                     charging point may therefore technically not be an
                                                                                                                                                                                                  I live because I don’t have a basement.
 10                       17                            Between 200 and 299 km                Between 300 and 399 km
                                                                                                                                                                                                  It’s a city car that is not made for people
                                                                                                                                     obstacle to using an electric vehicle. That being said,
                                                        Between 400 and 499 km                500 km or more
                                                                                                                                                                                                  who live in the city.“
Average over 16 countries
                                                        You would not be ready to buy it

                                                                                                                                              Is the necessity to have a charging point at home or at work apt or inapt in describing
   14              38                    19             38                      19 10 16                       14         32          Fig. 13 the characteristics of fully electric vehicles?
                                                                                                                                              In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
 10                                    10                                 17
 8                        24           9                                                        26      13
                                                                  21    10                              5                       21
 4                                    4                                                                                                        Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
 1                                    1                                  2                              4                                                                                                               Average over 16 countries 88%
             FR                                    DE                                UK                              BE

                                                                                                                                       92%                                      92%
             16     15                        18                                  7 16                         14 11      20
                                                                                                                                              91%             91%                                                           90%    91%
      19                               12                 41               13              26                                                         88%              87%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     88%                         89%
                         15                                                                             12                                                                                  86%         86%
 16                                  10                                   9                            11                       27                                                                             84%
                          11          7                           12    12                      16
  8                                                                                                     6                                                                             80%
                                     1                                                                                                                                                                                                    76%

             IT                                    ES                                PT                              NW

           14 13                                   15    15                          14                        20 7
   18                                   14                                   18            26                              30
                        22            15                                                                15
                                                                  29       13
 14                                   9                                                         20     9
                          13                                               8                                                    14
 5                                    3                                    2                           4

             PL                                    US                                JP                              ZA

        15    15                              24        18                      19    15 13                     18        19
   15                   29                                    9                                          19                    22
                                      20                                   19                   16
 11                                                               14                                   10
                          9                                                                                                            FR     DE      UK       BE       IT      ES    PT    NW    PL    US     JP     ZA     TR    MX     BR     CN
  4                                   9                            6       8                     9      4                       8

             TR                                    MX                                BR                              CN

26                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      27

 Motorists expect better from the offer provided by       be standardised in 2014 in Europe with a Euro-                Would you say there are enough public charging stations for electric vehicles
 charging stations on public roads: 76% of those who      pean standard that trims the choice down to the       Fig. 14 on the roads?
 responded consider the current infrastructures to        so-called type 2 terminals.                                   In %, Yes: total of the “Strongly agree” and “Agree” answers,
                                                                                                                        No: total of the “Disagree” and “Strongly disagree” answers
 be very inadequate (Fig. 14), and 60% believe that
 the stations are not in the right locations (Fig. 15).
                                                                                                                               Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

 Norway, the champion of the electric car, is a case                                                                                                                                   Yes              No                 Average over 16 countries 24% | 76%
 in point. The country is actually overwhelmed
 by the success of its incentive measures. In Oslo,
                                                                                                                     86                                                           84                                       83
                                                                              MOTORIST                                          81                  82                  82

 the 1,300 charging points are no longer sufficient
                                                                                                                                                                                                       78                                      78


 to meet the needs of some 80,000 electric and
                                                                                                                                                              71                                                 71                  72                  72
                                                                                                                                                                                             69                                                                    68

 rechargeable hybrid cars on the roads.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      59

                                                          ”In terms of the charging stations, work still
 Planning and optimising long journeys where              needs to be done. I was sent to a charging point
 the battery needs recharging, can sometimes              and it was not the right one.”                                                                                                                                                                                41

 prove difficult due to incompatibilities between
 the socket and the charging cable. In order to
                                                          ”If they can produce an electric car that will                                                 29
                                                                                                                                                                                       31                   29
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                28                  28
                                                          do 500 km without stopping and that can be
 simplify charging systems, the sockets began to
                                                                                                                                                                                                  22                                      22
                                                          recharged in a quarter of an hour, I will take it.”             19                   18                  18                                                 17

                                                                                                                 FR        DE         UK        BE        IT        ES        PT         NW        PL        US        JP        ZA        TR        MX        BR        CN

                                                                                                                        Would you say that the public charging stations for electric vehicles available
                                                                                                                Fig. 15 on the roads are in the correct locations?
                                                                                                                        In %, Yes: total of the “Strongly agree” and “Agree” answers,
                                                                                                                        No: total of the “Disagree” and “Strongly disagree” answers
                                                                                                                               Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

                                                                                                                                                                                   Yes                 No                  Average over 16 countries 40% | 60%

                                                                                                                                74                                                                                         73
                                                                                                                                          66        64                  64                                                           64
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 60                                      58
                                                                                                                                                                                  56         54                                                56                  55
                                                                                                                                                              52                                  50 50                                                                 50 50
                                                                                                                                                                             44        46                                                 44
                                                                                                                                                                                                            40                                      42
                                                                                                                                               36                  36                                                           36
                                                                                                                31                   34                                                                                                                       32
                                                                                                                          26                                                                                          27

                                                                                                                 FR        DE         UK        BE        IT        ES        PT         NW        PL        US        JP        ZA        TR        MX        BR        CN

28                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                29

         Is a long battery charging time apt or inapt when describing                                               Saving time                                                          been inconceivable a few years ago, it is now being
 Fig. 16 the characteristics of fully electric vehicles?                                                           Whether at home or in a public space, the issue                       considered possible. While recharging a battery to
         In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers                                                           of the battery charging time is paramount. 75% of                     80% takes nearly 10 hours at home, this time drops
                                                                                                                   those who replied associate the electric vehicle                      significantly when using the public charging sta-
            Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem                                         Average over 16 countries 75%

                                                                                                                   with a long battery charging time (Fig. 16) and 70%                   tions. The massive deployment of “fast charge“
                                                                                                            87%    demand a charging time of less than 45 minutes                        stations in the coming years will satisfy the most
                                                                                                                   to be interested in an electric vehicle (Fig. 17).                    reluctant motorists by delivering an 80% charge

                                                                                                                   Although this level of performance would have                         in just 30 minutes.
                                             78%                           79%
                                                               73%               74%          73%

                                                   68%               69%
                                                                                                                           What is the minimum fast battery charging time on the public roads or at a motorway
                                                                                       64%           63%           Fig. 17 service station that you would require during a long-distance journey to be interested
                                                         60%                                                               in an electric vehicle?
                                                                                                                           In %
                                                                                                                               Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

                                                                                                                                                                     Less than 15 mins                                       Between 15 and 30 mins
     FR    DE      UK       BE       IT      ES    PT    NW    PL    US    JP    ZA     TR    MX     BR     CN            32         17
                                                                                                                                           4                         Between 30 and 45 mins                                  Between 45 mins and 1 hr
                                                                                                                   20                        3
                                                                                                                                             13                      Between 1 hr and 1 hr 30 mins                           More than 1 hr 30 mins

                                                                                                                   Average over 16 countries
                                                                                                                                                                     You would not be interested

                                                                                                                         29       16 11                         33        17                             16 10                           29     16 10
                                                                                                                                       3                                       10              29             5                                      4
                                                                                                                                        2                                       1                                      2
                                                                                                                                                        20                        2                                                                           3
                                                                                                                    19                   21                                               15                               22       20
                                                                                                                                                                                  17                                                                           17

                                                                                                                                FR                                   DE                                  UK                                    BE

                                                                                                                          36         16                              34                             42                                         15 8
                                                                                                                                                                               14                                  12                    28              3
                                                                                                                                           12                                    7                                   7                                    4
                                                                                                                                            4            30                       4       25                          2
                                                                                                                    23                       2                                     3                                   2           19                         22
                                                                                                                                             8                                     8                                   11
                                                                                                                                IT                                   ES                                  PT                                    NW

                                                                                                                         41           16                             15 11                          23        12                          32        19
                                                                                                                                           12                22           4                                        8                                     8
                                                                                                                                                                                4                                      5
                                                                                                                                            3                                                                           3                                    7
                                                                                                                                                                                    26    31                                                                  5
                                                                                                                    17                       2          19                                                               18        19
                                                                                                                                              9                                                                                                                8

                                                                                                                                PL                                   US                                  JP                                    ZA

                                                                                                                                     21                         35        19                    38            17                                26
                                                                                                                         33               12                                    14                                     12                35              15
                                                                                                                                            6                                    7                                      5                                 5
                                                                                                                   16                        5                                    5       17                             6                                 1
                                                                                                                                                       18                                                                          11
                                                                                                                                             7                                    2                                      5                                  7
                                                                                                                                TR                                   MX                                  BR                                    CN

30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             31

EVs ARE FOR THE CITY!                                                                                                            In your opinion, is the statement “you can avoid the urban restrictions imposed on vehicles
                                                                                                                         Fig. 19 (tolls, traffic restrictions in the city centre, alternating traffic, paid parking, etc.)“,
                                                                                                                                 apt or inapt when describing fully electric vehicles?
                                                                                                                                 In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers

T         he electric vehicle has several advantages that make it suitable for
          city motorists.
                                                                                                                                 Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Average over 16 countries 65%

                                                                would expect, the Norwegians are the least likely
     The ultimate city car
Indeed, this is the opinion of 68% of those who                 to agree with this statement (64%). Even though

replied (Fig. 18). 65% agree that EVs avoid the pro-            manufacturers have rushed to take advantage of the
blems associated with car use in cities (Fig. 19).              market potential, the models sold in Norway are
                                                                                                                                                70%                           69%

This percentage is even higher in countries where               the same as those offered in the rest of Europe. It

there are heavy traffic restrictions on fuel-powered            would therefore seem that motorists become less                                                                                             61%

vehicles: 81% in China, 86% in Italy, 84% in Spain,             demanding when they experience EV use. Contrary
78% in Mexico, 70% in Belgium, 68% in the United                to what most of those who replied seem to think,

Kingdom and 66% in France. The electric vehicle                 there is a relatively wide variety of electric vehicle
                                                                                                                                51%                                                             50%                       51%

appears to be an effective solution to reducing the             models available. The European (Renault, Peugeot,                                                       45%

noise generated by road traffic, with 92% of those              BMW, Volkswagen, Smart, etc.), Japanese (Nissan,
who responded endorsing the silence of electric                 Mitsubishi, etc.), South Korean (Hyundai, Kia, etc.),
vehicles.                                                       Chinese (Baic, BYD, Zhidou, Byton, Kandi, etc.) and
                                                                American brands (Tesla, Ford, etc.) cover the seg-
                                                                                                                          FR     DE     UK       BE       IT      ES    PT    NW    PL    US    JP    ZA     TR    MX     BR     CN

     A flawed offer?                                            ments from the small city car to the utility vehicle,
But although EVs would appear to be destined for                including saloons and MPVs. However, the most
great things in the city, the offer still needs to be           recent models, although theoretically available,
appealing. 86% of those who replied claim that there            usually require a long or very long waiting time                 In your opinion, is the statement “the range of available models is still small“,
are still too few models available (Fig. 20). As you            before delivery.
                                                                                                                         Fig. 20 apt or inapt when describing fully electric vehicles?
                                                                                                                                 In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
                                                                                                                                 Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

         In your opinion, are EVs only for people who live in big cities?                                                                                                                               Average over 16 countries 86%
 Fig. 18 In %, total of the “Strongly agree” and “Agree” answers
             Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
                                                                                                                                89%                                                 90%                                   89%
                                                                                                                          87%                            89%                                                                     87%
                                                                                                                                        87%     87%                                                                86%
            86%                                                                       Average over 16 countries 68%                                               85%
                                     83%                                                                                                                                                  80%


                                                                                    69%           69%    70%
     68%                                                        67%
                                              66%                                                                                                                             64%
                   65%                                                                                         64%
                                                          62%         62%                  63%


     FR      DE     UK       BE       IT      ES    PT    NW    PL    US      JP    ZA     TR     MX     BR     CN        FR     DE     UK       BE       IT      ES    PT    NW    PL    US    JP    ZA     TR    MX     BR     CN

32                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      33

PORTRAIT OF AN E-MOTORIST                                                           A LACK OF COMPETITIVENESS
                                                                                    G   iven its specific features, the EV is technically suited to the driving habits of
                                                                                        a large number of motorists. To be fully embraced, there still remains one
                                                                                    obstacle to be overcome, i.e. competitiveness Most households will only opt for
                                                                                    the electrical solution if it is financially advantageous.

                                                                                       urchase price that is deemed
                                                                                      P                                                          the strong financial incentives they receive for
                    43% of men                                                        more expensive                                             the purchase of an electric vehicle. Yet China and
                                                                  Mostly aged
               want to buy an electric                                              For 86% of those who responded, an electric vehicle          Norway are not the only countries to offer such
                 vehicle in the next                               between          costs more to buy than its fuel-powered equivalent           financial incentives. But surprisingly, 49% of those
               5 years, compared to                                25 and 34        (Fig. 21). This is actually true, given that an elec-        who responded do not know if subsidies or incen-
                  35% of women                                                      tric vehicle is still generally more expensive than a        tives to buy an electric vehicle are available in
                                                                                    fuel-powered vehicle, mainly due to the cost of the          their country, and only 32% say yes (Fig. 23). With
                                                             51% of those           battery. For motorists, this is the number 1 argument        65% and 55% respectively of those who responded
                                                       who replied in this age
                                                                                    for not wanting to buy an electric vehicle, and this         declaring that they are aware of the financial
                                                        group want to buy an
                                                     electric vehicle in the next   applies in the 16 countries surveyed (Fig. 22).              assistance available for the purchase of an elec-
                                                        5 years, compared to                                                                     tric vehicle, the Chinese and French believe they
                                                       44% of 18-24 year olds,      Regarding this issue, the Chinese and Norwegians             are properly informed, reflecting the commitment
                                                     42% of 35-54 year olds and     stand out somewhat (65% and 64%). Their more                 of their governments to communicate widely on
                                                          29% of those aged
                                                                                    moderate viewpoint is probably influenced by                 this subject.
          Mostly                                             55 and over
                                                                                             In your opinion, is the statement “it is more expensive to buy“, apt or inapt
                                                                                     Fig. 21 when describing fully electric vehicles?
               48% of people living in                                                       In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
             cities with a population of                                                      Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

             more than 100,000 want to
                                                                                                                                                                      Average over 16 countries 86%

            buy an electric vehicle in the
           next 5 years, compared to 36%
                                                  Who cover the
           of those who live in cities with
                                                following distances,                                         93%                                             92%
                                                                                      91%    91%                      91%                        91%                             91%

           less than 100,000 inhabitants
                                                     on average:                                                               90%

                                                   60 km every day
                                                                                                     87%                             87%                            87%                 88%

               and 29% in rural areas

                                                 18,400 km annually

                                              12 long journeys of more
                                              than 400 km in the year

                                                                                                                                           64%                                                 65%

                                                                                      FR     DE      UK       BE       IT      ES    PT    NW    PL    US     JP     ZA    TR     MX     BR    CN

34                                                                                                                                                                                                    35

         What are all the reasons why you could not choose a fully electric vehicle                                                       To your knowledge, are there any subsidies or incentives to buy an electric vehicle
 Fig. 22 if you were buying a car?                                                                                                Fig. 23 (cash reward for replacing an old vehicle, tax credit or other non-financial measures
         In %, several possible answers                                                                                                   such as free parking, access to reserved lanes)?
            Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem                                                                                                In %
                                                                                                                                                     Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
 The range is too        It’s too expensive                                                                   I am not equipped
      short                                    It’s takes too long   The range is too    It’s too expensive     to recharge the
                                                   to recharge            short
                                                                                                                                           Yes                  No                     You don’t know
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Average over 16 countries 32% | 19% | 49%

          49%                  60%                   41%                   41%                 49%                  38%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         65

                                                                                                                                                                                                     56                                                          56
                                                                                                                                  55                                                                                                                                            54             55
     FR     DE      UK      BE      IT        PT    JP     CN                            ES     NW      US
                                                                                                                                                                       48             49                                                                                                                                     48
                                                                                                                                                46                                                                                                47                                                                                                       46
                                                  The range of
                         It’s too expensive
                                               available models is                       It’s too expensive
 The range is too                                too narrow to       I am not equipped                                                                                                                                                  38
      short                                    compare the offers      to recharge the                        I prefer a hybrid            35
                                                                                                                                                          33                               34
                                                                           battery                                                                                          33                                           32
                                                                                                                   vehicle                                                                                                                                                                               31                                           31
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      28             28                            28
                                                                                                                                                               26 27
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       27                                27
          41%                  70%                   41%                   29%                 63%                  25%                                                                                   23                                                                                                            24                       23
                                                                                                                                                                                 18                                           19                            18             18             17        17
                                                                                                                                                                                                               14                            14
                            ZA      MX                                                          BR
                                                                                                                                       9                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8
                         It’s too expensive
 I am not equipped
   to recharge the                             It’s takes too long
       battery                                     to recharge
                                                                                                                                    FR           DE              UK          BE                 IT             ES         PT             NW                 PL         US                 JP         ZA             TR             MX             BR             CN

          39%                  66%                   35%

                             PL     TR                                                                                               unning costs that are more
                                                                                                                                  But the cost of running an EV restores the finan-
                                                                                                                                  cial balance. Whether it is installing a charging                                                                                                                      MOTORIST
                                                                                                                                  station at home (if needed), maintenance, energy,                                                                                                                      QUOTES
                                                                                                                                  insurance or the battery rental (if needed), all the
                                                                                                                                  costs are much lower than those of an equivalent
                                                                                                                                  fuel-powered vehicle. Given that electricity is chea-                                                                 ”There’s no comparison when it comes to the
                                                                                                                                  per than fossil fuels, the biggest saving comes from
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        running costs of an electric vehicle. I use the
                                                                                                                                  the energy supply. Motorists are well aware of this
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        vehicle and recharge it for nothing, all from

                                                                                                                                  financial benefit. 68% claim that an electric vehicle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        my own home.”

                                                                                                                                  requires less maintenance than a fuel-powered
                                                                                                                                  vehicle (Fig. 24) and 77% deem that it is economi-
                                                                                                                                  cal to run (Fig. 25).

36                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        37

         In your opinion, is the statement “it requires less maintenance than a fuel-powered vehicle                The need for financial assistance                           Financial incentives are therefore essential to
 Fig. 24 (petrol or diesel)“, apt or inapt when describing fully electric vehicles?                                However, even this advantage in using an EV is not           reduce the purchase price and the difference in the
         In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers                                                           enough to win over motorists for good. The purchase          total cost of ownership (TCO) between electric and
                                                                                                                   price, which is deemed to be prohibitively high,             conventional cars. They are particularly critical in
            Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

                                                                                  Average over 16 countries 68%    outweighs all the other arguments. When all the              the current phase of the technology’s deployment
                                                                                                                   costs associated with an EV are taken into account,          in order to trigger and facilitate a virtuous circle.
                                                                                                                   38% find it a bit more expensive and 35% much more           A circle based on increased sales, increased produc-
                                                                                                            78%    expensive (Fig. 26). As a result, 42% of those who           tion volumes and improved technology, including
                                                                                                                   responded would not pay any more to buy an EV                battery performance, which will help to reduce the
                                             76%                                       75%
                                                               72%                            73%
                                                                                                                   and only 28% would agree to pay 10% more than                financial barriers.
                   70%                                                                               72%

                                                                                                                   they would for the fuel-powered version (Fig. 27).
                            66%                    66%               67%

                                                                                                                           In your opinion, if we take into account all the costs (buying and running) and the resale price,
                                                                                                                   Fig. 26 does an EV now cost more or less than a fuel-powered vehicle (petrol or diesel)?
                                                                                                                           In %
                                                                                                                             Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

                                                                                                                                                              Much more expensive        A bit more expensive             The same price
     FR    DE      UK       BE       IT      ES    PT    NW    PL    US    JP    ZA     TR    MX     BR     CN
                                                                                                                     35                  17
                                                                                                                                          2                   A bit cheaper              Much cheaper

                                                                                                                   Average over 16 countries

         In your opinion, is the statement “it is economical to run (less maintenance, cheaper                                  40                                  36                      36                                   30
 Fig. 25 energy)“, apt or inapt when describing fully electric vehicles?
         In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers                                                             37                  17            42                           35                21         47                        17
                                                                                                                                          5                               2                            5                                    5
            Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem                                                                                                1                                                            2                                    2
                                                                                                                              FR                              DE                          UK                                BE
                                                                                   Average over 16 countries 77%
                                                                                                                                   47                              44                            36                              29
                                                                                                                    34                                33                            49                                                     24
                                                                                                                                         14                               18                          7
                                                                                       87%                  86%
                                                                                                                                          4                                4                          6         13                          6
                   83%                             83%                           83%
                                                                                                     85%                                  1                                2                           2
                                                                     79%                                                      IT                               ES                         PT                                NW
                           76%                           77%   77%
                                                                                                                                    30                        33                          42                                     32
     71%                                                                   72%                72%
                                                                                                                      50                                                 25
                                             69%                                                                                                                                                      22         45                        10
                                                                                                                                          17          31                   10       27
           66%                      65%                                                                                                                                                                8                                    10
                                                                                                                                          3                                 2                          2                                    3
                                                                                                                              PL                              US                           JP                               ZA

                                                                                                                               47                                  43                            43                   42              18
                                                                                                                                         9                                15        42                                                     20
                                                                                                                    29                    11          35                                              8
                                                                                                                                                                           5                          6
     FR    DE      UK       BE       IT      ES    PT    NW    PL    US    JP    ZA     TR    MX     BR     CN                             3                               1                          1         17                          4

                                                                                                                              TR                              MX                          BR                                CN

38                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              39

         How much more would you be prepared to pay to buy an electric vehicle                                                  oubt regarding the life expectancy
                                                                                                                               D                                                          capacity, but a significant part of it. Below 75%,
 Fig. 27 rather than its fuel-powered version (petrol or diesel)?                                                              of batteries                                               they are no longer really suited for use in a vehicle.
         In %                                                                                                                Once again, we come back to the issue of batte-              For a lithium battery, the initial results show a life-
                                                                                                                             ries that crystallises the problems of the EV. 71%           time of about ten years. The manufacturers offer
           Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

             28                                                                                                              of motorists believe that their lifetime is too short        a guarantee of about 5 years for motorists who
                                                                                                                             (Fig. 28). 27% believe that they last 3-4 years, 20%         wish to buy them (8 years at Tesla). For those who
                                                                             Less than 10 %            Between 10 and
     42                                          Nothing
                                                                                                                             claim that they last 5-10 years and only 4% claim            prefer to hire a vehicle, the manufacturers replace
                      24                                                     more                      30 % more

                                                                                                                             that they last beyond the age of 10 years (Fig. 29).         them when they reach the 70% threshold. Although
                       4                         Between 30 and              More than 50 %
                        2                        50 % more                   more
                                                                                                                             Although batteries do indeed lose capacity, it is            this provides some security, it comes at a cost for
                                                                                                                             gradual. After completing a set number of charging           those who are concerned about the obsolescence
 Average over 16 countries

                                                                                                                             and discharging cycles, they do not lose all of their        of their battery.
                 28                                26                                  21                        23
      49                                                               54
                       18                                  26                               18   52                    20
                                   44                                                                                   3            In your opinion, is the statement “the battery life is too short“ apt or inapt
                        3                                   2                                4
                                                                                                                             Fig. 28 when describing the characteristics of fully electric vehicles?
                                                                                                                                     In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
                        2                                   2                                3                          2
            FR                                   DE                              UK                         BE                         Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

           35                                33                                       22
                      30                                           49                             66                  14
     32                             38                     26                               22
                        2                                                                    4                           5
                        1                                    3                               2                           1
            IT                                   ES                              PT                        NW

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Average over 16 countries 71%
            28                                     24                                 28                   28
                      29                                   18      46                                                 30
                                     46                                                     19                                       86%
 40                    3                                    7                                    34                     6                                                                                                                 85%
                       1                                    5                                1                          2      81%
                                                                                                                                              79%     78%
            PL                                   US                              JP                         ZA
                                                                                                                                                               71%      70%
                                                                                                                                                                                    68%         68%
            32                              32                              32                                  38                                                            64%                             65%
                                                        40                                 37                                                                                                                        61%
     38               24                                                                         38                     22
                       4           21                        6    25                        6                            1                                                                                                         54%
                       3                                     2                              1                            1
            TR                                   MX                              BR                         CN

                                                                                                                               FR     DE      UK       BE       IT      ES    PT    NW    PL    US      JP     ZA     TR    MX      BR     CN

40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              41

         In your opinion, what is the lifetime of a battery?
 Fig. 29 In %
                   Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

               17         27
          3                                               You don’t know             Less than one             Between 1 and 2 years
 28                             20
                                                          Between 3 and              Between 5 and
                                 4                        4 years                    10 years                  More than 10 years

 Average over 16 countries

               15         30                       14          35                        4 14                          112       29
                                                  1                                                  23
                                                                              42                               39
 33                             18          25                           23                           14                              18
                                 2                                        2                           3                                2

                    FR                                    DE                               UK                               BE

              1 16                                   215                                                                3 8 13
                           27                                       27              2 14        25
     34                                                                                                        43                     29
                                20           35                          18   31                      23

                                                                                                                                                                                                   which was marketed in early 2017, offers almost
                                 2                                       2                                5                            9
                                                                                                                                              sed batteries can be sold,
                    IT                                    ES                               PT                               NW               but to who and at what price?                         twice the range. This has the effect of making the
                                                                                                                                           When adopting a new technology, it is reassuring        first models less attractive.
                                                                                                                                           to be able to estimate the residual value of your
                                                                                                                                           vehicle and sell it easily. However 84% of those        In order to reassure potential buyers, manufacturers
              18         33                              5 17                              25                          25        28
          3                                                         21              17
                                                                                                                                           who responded believe that we cannot yet fore-          are creating specific brands or offers that are entirely
                                                                                                     33            5
                                18           39                               27
 25                                                                   16                                      22                      17
                                 3                                     3                                  8                           4    see the development of the second-hand market           dedicated to the resale of a UEV (used electric vehicle),
                                                                                                                                           over time, hence their second-hand value (Fig. 30).     such as the Nissan Club and the Renault ZE Occasion.
                    PL                                    US                               JP                               ZA             Such an assessment is particularly challenging          This is to encourage motorists to take the plunge by
                                                                                                                                           because about a third of the value resides in the       partially avoiding the high price of a new EV while
                                                                                                                            38             battery whose capacity is gradually decreasing and      being able to count on the manufacturer’s brands to
                                                                                                                                           because there are so few EVs on the market. 74%         guarantee the reliability of their used vehicle.
          25             29                         30              29              28          26
                                                                                                                                           of the motorists surveyed agree about this scarcity
      5                         21              5                               4                     20                              24
                                                                         19                                     3
                                                                                                                                           (Fig. 31). Unsurprisingly, the Norwegians stand out     Car leasing, which has been around for a long time
 16                              4                                            17
                                           15                            2                                5   12                       5
                                                                                                                                           in this respect (49%) because the greater maturity of   in the English-speaking countries and is becoming
                                                                                                                                           the local market has created a second-hand market       increasingly popular elsewhere, also offers a solution
                    TR                                    MX                               BR                               CN

                                                                                                                                           for EVs earlier than elsewhere.                         to the anxiety surrounding battery durability. Indeed,
                                                                                                                                                                                                   by renting an EV or its battery for 3 or 4 years as is
                                                                                                                                           What’s more, the extremely fast progress being          often the case, the risk and worry of driving long
                                                                                                                                           made on new models is having the effect of rapidly      distances with an outdated battery can be managed
                                                                                                                                           reducing the value of electric vehicles, which is       effectively. Similarly, because it is negotiated before-
                                                                                                                                           generating additional uncertainty among future          hand, the uncertainty surrounding the residual value
                                                                                                                                           buyers. As an example, the latest generation ZOE,       of the battery disappears.

42                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        43

         In your opinion, is the statement “we do not know the resale value of the vehicles given
 Fig. 30 that we don’t know how the second-hand market will develop over time“, apt or in apt
         when describing fully electric vehicles?
                                                                                                                   THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE FOR ALL THOSE
         In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers                                                           WHO RESPONDED
            Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
                                                                                   Average over 16 countries 84%
                                                                                                                                                   It is…     It is not…
                                                                                                                                                     Silent   A second vehicle
     87%           87%                       86%                                              86%

                                    81%            81%   81%               81%   81%
                                                                                                     83%    83%
                                                                                                                                              Eco-friendly    Sophisticated
                                                                                                                      Requires access to a charging station   Reserved for car sharing

                                                                                                                                                   Modern     Dangerous
                                                                                                                               More expensive to purchase     A trend
                                                                                                                                     Few models available     A woman’s car

     FR    DE      UK       BE       IT      ES    PT    NW    PL    US    JP    ZA     TR    MX     BR     CN

         In your opinion, is the statement “there are no second-hand vehicles available“,
 Fig. 31 apt or inapt when describing fully electric vehicles?
         In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
            Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

                                                                                   Average over 16 countries 74%


           80%                               81%                                              81%    80%
                   80%      79%
     74%                                                                         75%   74%

                                                                     62%                                    62%


     FR    DE      UK       BE       IT      ES    PT    NW    PL    US    JP    ZA     TR    MX     BR     CN

44                                                                                                                                                                                          45
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