Climate Change Adaptation Plan - for natural resource management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria 2016

Climate Change Adaptation Plan - for natural resource management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria 2016
Climate Change
Adaptation Plan
for natural resource management in the
Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria
2016
An assessment of the vulnerability of the Goulburn Broken Catchment’s natural resources to climate
change using spatially-enabled criteria and identification of adaptation and mitigation priorities and
management options
Climate Change Adaptation Plan - for natural resource management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria 2016
2   | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority


© Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, 2016
PO Box 1752, Shepparton Vic 3632
Phone: 03 5822 7700 Email: reception@gbcma.vic.gov.au
Web: www.gbcma.vic.gov.au

ISBN: 978-1-876600-05-1

Contributing authors:
Compiled by Melanie Haddow and Kate Brunt (Goulburn Broken CMA)
using project reports developed by Craig Clifton and Milos Pelikan (Jacobs),
Rod McLennan (Rod McLennan and Associates) and Pat Feehan (Pat Feehan
Consulting).
Regional Natural Resource Management Planning for Climate Change in
the Goulburn Broken Region Project Steering Committee:
Carl Walters, Chris Norman, Helen Murdoch, Jenny Wilson, Kate Brunt (Project
Manager), Katie Warner, Mark Turner, Melanie Haddow, Simon Casanalia, Steve
Wilson (Chair) and Wayne Tennant, Goulburn Broken CMA
Chelsea Cherry, Victorian Government Department of Environment, Land,
Water and Planning
Gary Deayton, Moira Shire Council, (representing the Goulburn Broken Local
Government Biodiversity Reference Group)
Peter Wilcock, Australian Government Department of Environment
Tracy Taylor/Thomas Brown, Goulburn Broken Greenhouse Alliance
Further acknowledgements:
For providing expertise to inform the Plan:
Milos Pelikan, Craig Clifton, Sarah Heard, Ashlea Davy and David Kelly, Jacobs
Mark Cotter, The Catchment Management Company
Pat Feehan, Pat Feehan Consulting
Rod McLennan, Rod McLennan and Associates
Aaron Findlay, Carl Walters, Carla Miles, Helen Murdoch, Jenny Wilson, Kate
Brunt, Melanie Haddow, Rachael Spokes, Steve Wilson and Tim Barlow,
Goulburn Broken CMA
Kate Stothers, Euroa Arboretum
Terry Batey and Rebecca Caldwell, Victorian Government Department of
Environment and Primary Industries
Terry Hunter, Goulburn-Murray Water
For collaboration on regional natural resource management planning for
climate change:
Matthew O’Connell and Alison Skinner, North East CMA
Linda Broadhurst, Veronica Doerr and Leanne Webb, CSIRO
Paul Ryan, Australian Resilience Centre
The Victorian CMAs Natural Resource Management Planning for Climate
Change Forum
For providing information and communication technology assistance:
Peter Geddes, Goulburn Broken CMA
Design by Flying Pig Design
Photos: front cover (left to right): Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change
workshop in Euroa, credit: Melanie Haddow; Revegetation site, credit: GB
CMA; Introduction to soil care workshop at Glenaroua, credit: Karen Brisbane.
Back cover (left to right): Kinnairds wetland after watering, credit: Jo Wood;
Beyond SoilCare project farm tour at Whiteheads, credit: Rhiannon Apted;
Irrigation water efficiency works at Yeilma, credit: David Lawler

Disclaimer: this publication may be of assistance, but the Goulburn Broken Catchment       The Regional NRM Planning for
Management Authority and its partners do not guarantee that the publication is without     Climate Change in the Goulburn
flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purpose and therefore        Broken Region project has
disclaim all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you   been supported by Australian
relying on any information in this publication.                                            Government funding.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan - for natural resource management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria 2016
Climate Change Adaptation Plan   |       1




Contents   1. Purpose                                                                       2
           2. Background                                                                    3
           3. The Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process                                4
              3.1 Identifying assessment criteria                                           4
              3.2 Development of a spatial assessment tool                                  5
              3.3 Assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation
                  priority                                                                  6
              3.4 Development of adaptation options                                         7
           4. Influence of Climate Change on the Condition of the
               Catchment’s Natural Resources                                                9
           5. Impact of Climate Change on the Catchment’s Natural
               Resources                                                                15
           6. Vulnerability of the Catchment’s Natural Resources to Climate
              Change                                                                    18
           7. Focus Areas for Climate Change Adaptation and Management
              Options                                                                   20
              7.1 Agricultural Floodplains Social-ecological System                     24
              7.2 Productive Plains Social-ecological System                            30
              7.3 Upland Slopes Social-ecological System                                36
              7.4 Commuting Hills Social-ecological System                              42
              7.5 Southern Forests Social-ecological System                             48
              7.6 Incremental and transformational adaptation                           54
              7.7 Adaptation pathways                                                   55
           8. Climate Change Mitigation                                                 56
              8.1 Priority landscapes for carbon farming                                56
              8.2 Management options for carbon farming                                 61
           9. Implementation: making use of better information                          62
           10. Adaptive Management Framework                                            63
              10.1 Elements of an adaptive management framework                         63
              10.2 Adaptive pathways                                                    64
              10.3 Risk management procedure                                            65
           11. Evaluation and Improvement                                               66
              11.1 Key evaluation questions                                             66

           Abbreviations                                                                67
           References                                                                   67
           Appendix A: Summary of Communication and
           Engagement Activities                                                        69
           Appendix B: Exposure Maps                                                    71
           Appendix C: Sensitivity Map                                                  72
           Appendix D: Adaptive Capacity Map                                            73
           Appendix E: Case study; Planning for multiple futures in the Shepparton
           Irrigation Region                                                            74
Climate Change Adaptation Plan - for natural resource management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria 2016
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1. Purpose

This Climate Change Adaptation           Figure 1: The relationship between the Goulburn Broken Regional
Plan:                                    Catchment Strategy, sub-strategies and local plans for social-ecological
                                         systems (GB CMA 2013).
a. identifies priority landscapes
   for climate change adaptation                                SUPPORTING SUB-STRATEGIES

   and mitigation in the context
                                                                                 People:
   of improving the resilience of                               Community NRM Action Plan 2013-18;                    INTEGRATION
   natural resources;                                          Communications and Marketing Strategy                    PLANNING
                                                                2013; Community Engagement Strategy
b. identifies options for climate                                 and Action Plan 2014-15; Workforce                  SES Local Plans:
   change adaptation and                                         Strategy 2013-18; Workforce Plan and                  1. Agricultural
                                                               Capability Strategy 2013-18; Occupational                Floodplains
   mitigation, including carbon                               Health and Safety Policy Statement 2014-15             2. Productive Plains
   sequestration, within focus areas                                            Other:                                3. Upland Slopes
   and priority landscapes; and                                  Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting                4. Commuting Hills
                                                              Strategy 2004; Climate Change Integration
c. identifies risks to catchment                                                                                     5. Southern Forests
                                                                   Strategy 2012-15; Organisational
                                           GOULBURN                                                                   6. Urban Centres
   processes from carbon                     BROKEN              Environmental Footprint Strategy and
                                            REGIONAL          Action Plan 2012-14; ICT Strategy 2015-18
   sequestration activities and
                                           CATCHMENT
   mitigation actions.                      STRATEGY
                                             2013-19
This Plan contributes to achieving           Overarching                BIOPHYSICALLY FOCUSED SUB-STRATEGIES
                                            document that
strategic outcomes of the Goulburn           outlines the                                    Biodiversity:
Broken Catchment Management                long-term vision
                                                                                     Biodiversity Strategy 2010-15
                                            for integrated
Authority’s (CMA’s) Climate Change            catchment                                         Land:
Integration Strategy 2012-2015               management            Land Health Statement 2012; Invasive Plants and Animals Strategy
                                                                  2010; Shepparton Irrigation Region (SIR) Catchment Implementation
(GB CMA 2012), a sub-strategy                                                            Strategy 1990-2020
of the Goulburn Broken Regional                                                                Water:
Catchment Strategy (RCS) 2013                                       Goulburn Broken Waterway Strategy 2014-2022; Water Quality
                                                                    Strategy 1996-2016; Goulburn Broken Floodplain Management
-2019 (GB CMA 2013) (see                                                             Strategy (interim) 2014-16
figure 1).

This Plan specifically contributes
to the following Climate Change          The priorities and management                  at various spatial scales (see section
Integration Strategy strategic           options specifically relate to the             9 for more details).
outcomes and associated goals and        Goulburn Broken Catchment,
                                         however, the process for assessing             This Plan is not intended to
directions:                                                                             incorporate all decision-making
                                         vulnerability and identifying
• integrate climate change               priorities and management options              elements but provides an initial
  into Goulburn Broken CMA               could inform NRM planning more                 prioritisation for climate change
  programs;                              broadly.                                       adaptation and mitigation based
                                                                                        on spatially-enabled criteria
• improve understanding of
                                         The adaptation and mitigation                  for vulnerability and values.
  climate change; and
                                         priorities and associated                      Investigation of the interactions
• build catchment resilience into        management options outlined                    between social-ecological systems
  sequestration activities.              in this Plan will be considered                (SESs) identified in the Goulburn
                                         through the Goulburn Broken                    Broken RCS, (GB CMA 2013)
This Plan has been developed
                                         CMA’s adaptive management                      drivers of change and how key
primarily for natural resource
                                         planning processes for integration             points of vulnerability to natural
management (NRM) planners                into NRM programs and strategies               resources may be overcome will
but may inform the work of                                                              continue.
researchers and implementers.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan - for natural resource management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria 2016
Climate Change Adaptation Plan   |   3




2. Background

The Goulburn Broken CMA                     • fewer frosts (high level of          • The planning process is
coordinates natural resource                  confidence)                            logical, comprehensive and
management (NRM) in the                     • less rainfall during the cool          transparent (see section 3).
Goulburn Broken Catchment,                    season by 2090 (high level of        • Best available information is
Victoria, guided by the Goulburn              confidence)                            used to develop actions (see
Broken RCS. The Goulburn Broken                                                      sections 3, 5 and 6) and are
                                            • increased intensity of heavy
CMA develops and coordinates the                                                     based on collaboration with
                                              rainfall events (high level of
implementation of the Goulburn                                                       government, community and
                                              confidence)
Broken RCS in collaboration                                                          other stakeholders (see below).
                                            • a harsher fire-weather climate
with the community, all tiers of
                                              (high level of confidence)           The development of this Plan
government, regional authorities
and research and funding                    • increased evaporation (high          has been managed by a multi-
organisations.                                level of confidence)                 organisation steering committee
                                            • on an annual and decadal             (see Acknowledgements) and
Major challenges for NRM in the                                                    has been informed by extensive
                                              basis, natural variability in the
Goulburn Broken Catchment                                                          consultation with:
                                              climate system can act to either
include degraded river health,
                                              mask or enhance any long-term
reduced extent and quality of                                                      • Goulburn Broken CMA staff
                                              human-induced trend.
native vegetation, reduced water                                                     and Board
                                            • snowfall and maximum snow
quality and quantity, dryland and                                                  • local, State and
                                              depth will continue to decline
irrigated salinity, loss of biodiversity,                                            Commonwealth government
                                              (high level of confidence).
and pest plant and pest animal                                                       representatives
invasion. These challenges are              The development of this Plan was       • representatives from NRM
all being exacerbated by climate            supported by funding from Stream         organisations across Victoria
change.                                     1 of the Australian Government’s         and the Murray Basin
                                            Regional Natural Resource              • research institutions
Regional climate projections
                                            Management Planning for Climate
developed by the CSIRO for                                                         • expert consultants
                                            Change Fund. The Fund was
the Murray Basin (of which the                                                     • community and industry
                                            established to improve regional
Goulburn Broken Catchment is                                                         representatives.
                                            NRM planning and use of climate
part) indicate that climate change
                                            change science, information and        See Appendix A for more detail
will have the following impacts on
                                            scenarios to plan for the impacts      on stakeholder and community
the future climate (Timbal et al.
                                            of climate change. This Plan aligns    consultation activities.
2015):
                                            with the following principles of the
 • average temperatures will                Fund (DSEWPaC 2012):
   continue to increase in all
                                            •   Identify priority landscapes
   seasons (very high level of
                                                for carbon plantings (see
   confidence)
                                                section 8) and strategies to
 • hotter and more frequent hot                 build landscape integrity
   days and longer warm spells                  and guide adaptation and
   (very high level of confidence)              mitigation actions (see section
                                                7) to address climate change
                                                impacts on natural ecosystems
                                                (see sections 4, 5 and 6).
Climate Change Adaptation Plan - for natural resource management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria 2016
4   | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority




3. The Climate Change Adaptation Planning
Process

An assessment of the vulnerability       Although there are important            3.1 Identifying assessment
of the Goulburn Broken                   differences, exposure and               criteria
Catchment’s natural resources to         sensitivity broadly correspond
                                                                                 Criteria for assessing the
climate change using spatially-          with the likelihood and
                                                                                 vulnerability of the Catchment’s
enabled criteria was undertaken          consequence components of a
                                                                                 natural resources to climate change
with adaptation and mitigation           risk assessment. Vulnerability is
                                                                                 and identifying priorities for
priorities and management options        used to highlight locations and
                                                                                 adaptation were identified through
identified using the results of this     issues to focus further analysis,
                                                                                 (Clifton and Pelikan 2014):
assessment. Natural resources            including risk assessment and
are defined as per the Goulburn          management. Multiple criteria           • a review of the Goulburn
Broken RCS in the asset categories       and spatial data sets can be used         Broken CMA’s regional NRM
of land, water and biodiversity (GB      to characterise each of the three         planning framework to
CMA 2013).                               main components of a vulnerability        understand and assess how
                                         assessment to identify areas which        climate change has been
A vulnerability assessment was
                                         may experience greater impact             considered;
chosen as it is well suited to spatial
                                         from climate change.
analyses. Risk and vulnerability                                                 • an analysis of landscape
are similar, although not identical      The vulnerability and adaptation          processes that affect the
concepts. Both are widely used           priority assessment was undertaken        condition of natural resources
in the analysis of climate change        in the following five stages:             and current management
issues.                                                                            actions to mitigate adverse
                                          1. Identification of assessment          impacts; and
Vulnerability is the degree to               criteria
                                                                                 • stakeholder engagement.
which a system is susceptible to,         2. Development of a spatial
and unable to cope with, adverse             assessment tool                     Landscape processes were
effects of climate change. It has                                                represented using the Driver-
                                          3. Assessment of climate change
three main dimensions: exposure                                                  Pressure-State-Impact-Response
                                             vulnerability
to changes in climate; sensitivity to                                            (DPSIR) model (see figure 2).
                                          4. Identification of focus areas for
such changes; and the capacity of                                                The DPSIR analyses characterise
                                             adaptation
a system to adapt to them.                                                       landscape interactions that
                                          5. Development of adaptation           influence the condition and value
Risk is the effect of uncertainty            management options.                 of natural resources that may, in
on objectives and is assessed by
                                                                                 turn, be influenced by climate
considering the consequence of an
                                                                                 change. The DPSIR analyses
event and its likelihood.
                                                                                 include detail that seeks to explain
                                                                                 the interconnection between
                                                                                 the Driver, Pressure, State and
                                                                                 Impact elements and document
                                                                                 assumptions about the interactions
                                                                                 and influence of specific factors.
                                                                                 The model is not intended to
                                                                                 represent the actual biophysical
                                                                                 or ecological processes by which
                                                                                 those interactions occur.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan - for natural resource management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria 2016
Climate Change Adaptation Plan   |   5




Figure 2: The DPSIR model (Clifton and Pelikan 2014)                                   The Tool assists NRM planners
                                                                                       to develop scenarios of climate
                                                                                       change impact based on spatial
                    Drivers (D)
                                                                                       data and to incorporate any
 Climate change and other forcing factors that create
                                                                                       relevant local knowledge. Criteria
    pressure on a natural resource asset or system
                                                                                       can be weighted to assign higher
                                                                                       importance to certain criteria over
                                                                                       others with specific criteria and/
                   Pressures (P)
                                                                                       or criteria weighting able to be
    Climatic and other stressors influencing the
                                                                                       changed between scenario runs,
   condition of a natural resource asset or system
                                                                                       providing flexibility to customise
                                                                                       inputs (Kelly and Davy 2014).
                      State (S)                                                        The Tool is not an end in itself, but
  Condition of the natural resource asset or system
                                                                  Responses (R)        instead is a means to help NRM
                                                                   Managment           planners and decision-makers
                                                                   actions taken       to understand their complex
                     Impacts (I)                                    to avoid or
                                                                                       planning and decision-making
   Effect of the natural resource asset or system’s                 reduce risk
      state on its capacity to meet community                      of unwanted         environment. The Tool is not for
              expectations or objectives                              impacts          operational or every-day use, but
                                                                                       can be used at strategic points in
                                                                                       NRM planning cycles. It can also
                                                                                       be updated as new information
Social, technical, environmental,               The DPSIR also accounts for the        becomes available. The Tool runs
economic, political and legal                   influence of climate change, based     assessments for the whole of the
aspects considered for Drivers and              on mid-century climate change          Goulburn Broken Catchment but
Pressures were identified from                  projections under a relatively high    users can extract subsets of this
documented threats to natural                   emissions pathway, and identified      data and analyse them using GIS.
resources. Characteristics of the               responses that are specific to
current State (or condition) of                 climate change. This enabled a         The Tool’s data library contains
natural resources was documented                broad assessment of how climate        spatial information that represents
as were the likely Impacts on                   change may influence landscape         the vulnerability and priority
natural resource values or services.            processes and the State (or            assessment criteria. The Tool has
Types of management actions                     condition) and value of natural        the capacity to include additional
(Responses) specified in the                    resources.                             criteria and associated data. The
planning framework were matched                                                        actual number of criteria and data
at the appropriate point(s) in the                                                     sets deployed to inform this Plan
D-P-S-I chain.                                                                         reflects the available information,
                                                3.2 Development of a
                                                                                       difficulty to create or represent
The DPSIR analyses also include
                                                spatial assessment tool
                                                                                       criteria spatially and the project
assessments of the magnitude                    A Spatial Assessment Tool was          budget.
(local-regional scale) and trend                developed to help identify
(improvement/decline) of influence              landscapes within the Goulburn
of Drivers and Pressures on the                 Broken Catchment that are
State of natural resources. The                 vulnerable to climate change to
recent historical trend in State                assist in focusing adaptation. The
and Impact was also assessed.                   Tool can also help identify priority
Responses were classified in terms              landscapes for carbon farming
of their influence on the State of              activities (mitigation).
natural resources.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan - for natural resource management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria 2016
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3.3 Assessment of climate                The regional NRM planning                  The Tool uses a single climate
change vulnerability and                 framework review and, particularly,        change scenario in each ‘run’ to
adaptation priority                      the DPSIR analyses, were used, in          incorporate a specific time period,
                                         consultation with regional NRM             greenhouse gas emissions trajectory
The assessment of the vulnerability      planning stakeholders, to identify         and/or global climate model (or
of the Catchment’s natural               a set of criteria that informed            ensemble of models) output.
resources to climate change and          assessments of exposure, sensitivity,      Climate scenarios are reflected
adaptation priority reflects four        adaptive capacity and value. Factors       in the exposure component of
main attributes (see figure 3):          considered in selecting criteria           the vulnerability assessment. The
1. Exposure: the extent to which         include:                                   vulnerability assessment was
   a system or entity experiences                                                   undertaken for the following three
   climatic conditions that may           • Materiality: the extent to
                                                                                    climate change scenarios (Timbal et
   cause damage or alter landscape          which the criterion reflects a
                                                                                    al. 2015) using a criteria weighting
   or ecological processes.                 significant (or material) form
                                                                                    scheme developed in consultation
                                            of sensitivity to climate change
2. Sensitivity: the extent to which                                                 with regional NRM planning
                                            to which natural resources
   exposure to climate change                                                       stakeholders.
                                            and landscape processes are
   results in damage or disruption
                                            sensitive.                              1. Low climate change: warmer
   to landscape, ecological or
                                          • Differentiation: the extent to             (0.5-1.5°C increase in annual
   socio-economic processes.
                                            which values of the criterion              average temperature), with
3. Adaptive capacity: the extent                                                       little change in annual average
                                            and/or its influence on natural
   to which a system or entity is                                                      rainfall (-5 to +5% change).
                                            resource assets, SES and
   able to anticipate and adjust to                                                    This scenario is based on 2030
                                            landscape processes vary
   climate change.                                                                     outputs for the ACCESS 1.0
                                            across space.
4. Value: incorporating                                                                global climate model under the
                                          • Data availability: the availability
   environmental, social and                                                           Representative Concentration
                                            of spatial data to represent the
   economic value of wetlands                                                          Pathways (RCP) 4.5 emissions
                                            criterion or of data from which
   and streams, strategic values                                                       pathway.
                                            the criterion may be derived.
   associated with native
   vegetation, consequence of loss        • Confidence: the level of
   for economic infrastructure,             confidence that the criterion
   economic production and                  will influence vulnerability.
   environmental values, financial
   and economic value of land
   and presence of drought refuge
   habitats.


Figure 3: The climate change adaptation prioritisation framework (adapted from Schröter undated by Clifton and
Pelikan 2014).


       Exposure
                                        Impact
       Sensitivity                                                  Vulnerability
                                  Adaptive Capacity                                              Adaptation Priority
                                                                        Value
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Climate Change Adaptation Plan   |   7




2. Moderate climate change:             3.4 Development of                      2. Who or what adapts?
   hotter (1.5-3.0°C increase in        adaptation options                      The Tool data set was interrogated
   annual average temperature)                                                  to determine the main values
   and drier (5-15% reduction in        The process for conceptualising and
                                                                                responsible for the focus area
   annual average rainfall). This       evaluating adaptation options was
                                                                                being identified. The components
   scenario is based on 2050            adapted from Smit et al. (2000)
                                                                                of the natural resource system that
   outputs for the GFDL ESM2M           by Clifton and Pelikan (2014). The
                                                                                underpin those values should be
   global climate model under the       process draws on data outputs from
                                                                                addressed by adaptation actions.
   RCP 4.5 emissions pathway.           the Tool as well as the regional NRM
                                                                                Components may include people
                                        planning framework review and
                                                                                and infrastructure, as well as natural
3. High climate change: much            considers five questions:
                                                                                assets such as land, water and
   hotter (>3.0°C increase in
                                        1. Adaptation to what?                  biodiversity.
   annual average temperature)
   and much drier (>15%                 While climate change poses a            3. How are pressures and
   reduction in annual average          significant risk for many of the        impacts currently being
   rainfall). This scenario is based    natural systems managed by              managed?
   on 2070 outputs for the GFDL         the Goulburn Broken CMA and
                                                                                The Goulburn Broken CMA and
   ESM2M global climate model           its stakeholders, those systems’
                                                                                its stakeholders are typically aware
   under the RCP 8.5 emissions          current state and the resulting
                                                                                of the pressures faced by natural
   pathway.                             impacts largely reflect the influence
                                                                                resources and systems and have
                                        of other drivers and pressures.
Data representing the scenarios was                                             well-developed responses to these
                                        For adaptations to be taken up
provided by CSIRO under its Climate                                             pressures or the changes in state or
                                        and successfully implemented,
Change Projections for Australia’s                                              impacts they have contributed to.
                                        they need to be incorporated into
Natural Resource Management                                                     Many of these also help to build
                                        responses that address climate-
Regions project (Timbal et al. 2015),                                           resilience to climate change. The
                                        related and non-climate-related
based on modelling undertaken for                                               DPSIR analyses were interrogated
                                        influences. In some instances, an
the Fifth Assessment Report of the                                              to identify how pressures and
                                        adaptation’s main influence will
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate                                              impacts, including those potentially
                                        be to build resilience by reducing
Change (2013).                                                                  emerging as a result of climate
                                        the effects of non-climate-related
                                                                                change, are currently being
The overall scoring for vulnerability   pressures.
                                                                                managed.
and value criteria was used to          This question is addressed with
identify two forms of priorities:       reference to two main sources of        4. How effective are these
those for planned adaptation            information:                            responses anticipated to be?
and those for semi-autonomous                                                   A high level assessment is made
                                        • Tool outputs: the data set
adaptation. Planned adaptation                                                  of the effectiveness of existing
                                          was interrogated using
focuses on areas of high value                                                  planned adaptations at managing
                                          GIS to identify the main
and high vulnerability and                                                      the current suite of pressures
                                          exposure, sensitivity and
should be considered first when                                                 and impacts and those which are
                                          adaptive capacity criteria
developing and implementing                                                     anticipated to emerge as a result
                                          that are contributing to the
management programs to mitigate                                                 of climate change. This analysis
                                          vulnerability score.
vulnerability to climate change.                                                indicated whether natural resources
Semi-autonomous adaptation              • DPSIR analyses: the analyses          and systems are likely to be climate
areas have high value but lower           were used to identify the             resilient without further adaptation.
vulnerability under current tenure        broader set of drivers and
and management.                           pressures (climate and non-
                                          climate related) that influence
                                          on the state of natural
                                          resources to which adaptations
                                          are required to respond.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan - for natural resource management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria 2016
8   | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority




5. What additional options                • Reduce the risk: Either the use
could be considered?                        of natural resources is changed
The final step considered what new          to lessen or avoid impacts from
measures could be undertaken                climate change (e.g. changing
to develop or strengthen climate            from irrigation to dryland
resilience of natural resources in          agriculture or vice versa) or
the respective focus area. Options          the use is shifted to another
are considered in the following             location where there is less or
categories (after Willows and               no exposure to the relevant
Connell, 2003) to encourage                 climate change risk.
consideration of the full spectrum        • Build adaptive capacity:
of climate change response                  Research is undertaken
opportunities. The DPSIR analyses           to better understand and
have been considered where                  respond to risks from climate
they specify new or additional              change and/or education and
adaptation options for climate-             behavioural change programs
related drivers and pressures.              are implemented to improve
                                            various key stakeholder
• Modify the events: Actions
                                            groups’ understanding of
  are undertaken to reduce the
                                            climate change and encourage
  exposure of natural resources
                                            appropriate adaptive responses
  to climate events that may
                                            on their part. Planning,
  affect their condition. Provision
                                            regulatory or institutional
  of environmental flows or
                                            options under ‘respond to the
  irrigation are examples of this
                                            effects’ may also contribute to
  type of adaptation to drought.
                                            the development of adaptive
  Planned burning is an example
                                            capacity.
  of this type of adaptation to
  bushfires.
• Respond to the effects: Actions
  are undertaken to either
  protect against or reduce
  the sensitivity of the natural
  resources to climate change.
  These types of adaptation may
  include physical measures (e.g.
  construction of structures to
  provide environmental water),
  changes in operational or
  management practice (e.g.
  stubble retention to increase
  soil moisture retention and
  reduce drought sensitivity) and
  changes to planning, regulatory
  or institutional arrangements.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan   |    9




4. Influence of Climate Change on the Condition of
the Catchment’s Natural Resources

Information from the regional             relatively high emissions pathway.         The DPSIR analyses are based on
NRM planning framework review             Some pressures have a high level           assumptions informed by expert
(see section 3.1) and stakeholder         of influence only under climate            consultants and regional NRM
engagement has been used to               change.                                    planners. These assumptions
describe the influence of climate                                                    and the assessment criteria they
                                          The full DPSIR analyses (Clifton and
change on each of the three                                                          inform will be updated as new
                                          Heard 2013, available from http://
regional natural resource classes                                                    information becomes available as
                                          weconnect.gbcma.vic.gov.au/)
identified in the Goulburn Broken                                                    per the Goulburn Broken CMA’s
                                          identify links between Drivers and
RCS. Tables 1, 2 and 3 (below)                                                       Monitoring, Evaluation and
                                          Pressures, States and Pressures and
summarise information from                                                           Reporting Strategy (under review).
                                          Impacts and States. As the Drivers
the DPSIR analyses (Clifton and
                                          and Pressures listed in table 2 all
Pelikan 2014) (see section 3.1),
                                          have a high level of influence on
outlining the drivers and pressures
                                          the condition of natural resources,
with a high influence on natural
                                          all the drivers have an influence on
resource condition and the trend
                                          all of the pressures to some degree
that influence will experience
                                          which is why direct links have not
under climate change based on
                                          been articulated here.
mid-century projections under a




Table 1: Summary of drivers and pressures with a high influence on the condition of land resources in the
Goulburn Broken Catchment and the trend of influence under climate change


                Land: soil and land that is used for purposes other than nature conservation, including
                dryland and irrigation farming, timber production and urban and lifestyle uses


 STRONGEST           TREND OF INFLUENCE
 DRIVERS OF          ON CONDITION UNDER
 CONDITION           CLIMATE CHANGE          DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS

 Water               Increasing              Changing land use values interact with land use and management practice
 availability                                change as a driver. While this is not always the case, it often results
 and policy                                  in increased value on biodiversity compared with production and has
 reform                                      contributed to private and public land conservation of biodiversity assets. As
                                             climate change adds to pressure on biodiversity condition, this may increase
                                             trade-offs between biodiversity and production.

 Climate             Increasing              Climate has a strong and pervasive influence on land condition via
 variability and                             precipitation and temperature patterns and their influence on land health
 change                                      and primary production. Direction of influence depends on climate phases,
                                             but overall assumed to be neither detrimental nor beneficial under historical
                                             conditions. Climate change is likely to have an overall detrimental influence
                                             on land condition.
10   | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority




 STRONGEST           TREND OF INFLUENCE
 DRIVERS OF          ON CONDITION UNDER
 CONDITION           CLIMATE CHANGE         DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS

 Demographic         No change to current   Demographic change is reflected in changes in age and density of population,
 change              level of influence     as well as education, employment status and entrance of lifestyle landholders.
                                            Demographic change is not clearly influencing land condition in a particular
                                            direction, as expectations of land management/focus on stewardship and
                                            environmental values vary widely. Not clear how climate change would
                                            directly modify influence on land condition.

 Land use and        Increasing             Much of the influence is a legacy, reflecting historical change in land use to
 management                                 agriculture and development of water resources for irrigation. Land use and
 change                                     management continues to change in the Catchment, with intensification
                                            (following irrigation system modernisation), neglect or improved
                                            management. Overall, land use and management change is considered to
                                            currently have neutral influence, reflecting the balance of positive changes
                                            (e.g. improved management of soil health issues in farming areas) and
                                            negative changes (e.g. neglect of land in some lifestyle areas). Climate change
                                            may lead to a more negative influence on land condition, reflecting impact of
                                            temperature and increased drought.
 STRONGEST           TREND OF INFLUENCE
 PRESSURES ON        ON CONDITION UNDER
 CONDITION           CLIMATE CHANGE         DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS

 Change in fire      Increasing             Key pressure on land state in public land areas. Severe fire weather is
 regimes and                                projected to increase with climate change, potentially placing further pressure
 management                                 on land condition.

 Cultivation/        Increasing             Legacy and ongoing effect of cropping and grazing on various measures
 cropping/                                  of soil and land health. Improved practice in recent years is likely to
 grazing                                    reduce negative influence on condition rather than improve it (overall).
                                            Intensification of drought and extreme rainfall with climate change is likely to
                                            exacerbate influence on land condition.

 Extreme             Increasing             Extreme weather, especially fire, flood and drought, continue to adversely
 weather &                                  affect land assets. Climate change is likely to increase adverse effects of fire
 climate events                             and drought and may reduce flooding incidence.
 (drought, fire,
 flood)

 Invasive plants     Increasing             Invasive species reduce agricultural productivity and, in some cases, expose
 and animals                                soils to erosion (e.g. cape weed on ridges). Climate change may enable the
 and disease                                introduction of new species and with more severe, extreme rainfall events,
                                            may exacerbate effects on land condition.

 Irrigation and      Decreasing             Legacy and ongoing effect of irrigation development and practice and dryland
 dryland salinity,                          clearing, although the effects diminished in recent years compared to the
 high water                                 1980s and 1990s. With reduced rainfall under climate change, influence on
 tables                                     land condition is likely to diminish further.

 Irrigation -        Decreasing             Much of the influence on land condition is a historical legacy of elevated
 regulation,                                water tables and irrigation salinity. Effects of these on land condition have
 drainage,                                  diminished in recent years and are anticipated to continue to do so with
 diversion and                              climate change.
 storages

 Change in           Influence high only    Land asset condition (e.g. erosion, agricultural production, salinity, soil carbon)
 rainfall regime     under climate change   tightly linked to rainfall. Changes will be pervasive across the Catchment and
                     scenario               generally detrimental, although climate change is anticipated to further abate
                                            salinity issues.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan   |     11




Table 2: Summary of drivers and pressures with a high influence on the condition of water resources in the
Goulburn Broken Catchment and the trend of influence under climate change.



            Water: Waterways, floodplains, wetlands and groundwater aquifers and water used
            for consumptive and environmental uses


 STRONGEST          TREND OF INFLUENCE
 DRIVERS OF         ON CONDITION UNDER
 CONDITION          CLIMATE CHANGE          DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS

 Water              Increasing              Currently a positive influence on the condition of water assets as policy
 availability and                           reform and water availability has recently provided for improved balance
 policy reform                              between environmental and consumptive water uses. With reduced
                                            rainfall under climate change, competition between environmental and
                                            consumptive water uses is likely to increase and water availability for
                                            environmental flows likely to reduce, leading to detrimental influence on
                                            the condition of water assets.

 Climate            Increasing              Climate has a strong and pervasive influence on the condition of water
 variability and                            assets via precipitation patterns and their influence on stream flows and
 change                                     water-dependent ecosystem processes. Climate influence is also expressed
                                            in terms of water temperature. Direction of influence depends on climate
                                            phases, but overall assumed to be neither detrimental nor beneficial
                                            under historical conditions. Climate change is likely to have an overall
                                            detrimental influence on the condition of water assets.

 Land use and       No change to current    Much of the influence is a legacy, reflecting historical change in land use
 management         level of influence      to agriculture and development of water resources for irrigation. Land use
 change                                     and management continues to change in many areas, with intensification
                                            (following irrigation system modernisation), neglect or improved
                                            management. Proliferation of farm dams affects water flows in lifestyle
                                            land use zones. Overall, considered to currently have a neutral influence,
                                            reflecting the balance of positive changes (e.g. improved management of
                                            sources of nutrient and sediment) and negative changes (e.g. farm dam
                                            proliferation). Climate change unlikely to directly modify influence on
                                            condition.
12   | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority




 STRONGEST         TREND OF INFLUENCE
 PRESSURES ON      ON CONDITION UNDER
 CONDITION         CLIMATE CHANGE            DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS

 Change in fire    Increasing                Key pressure on long-term water flows and shorter term water quality from
 regimes and                                 wet eucalypt forests in key catchment areas (trend for excessive frequency in
 management                                  recent years). Severe fire weather projected to increase with climate change,
                                             potentially placing further pressure on water resources.

 Extreme           Increasing                Extreme weather, especially fire and drought, continues to adversely affect
 weather &                                   water assets. Flooding has a generally positive influence on the condition
 climate events                              of riparian, wetland and aquatic ecosystems. Climate change projected
 (drought, fire,                             to increase adverse effects of fire and drought and may reduce flooding
 flood)                                      incidence.

 Infrastructure    Increasing                Legacy and on-going impact of irrigation and water infrastructure, as well
 development                                 as flood levees on flows, flooding into floodplain forests and movement of
                                             aquatic fauna. With less flow under climate change, influence on condition
                                             is likely to worsen.

 Invasive plants   Increasing                Invasive species compete with, displace, damage or prey on native flora and
 and animals                                 fauna, reducing populations and affecting recruitment in water-dependent
                                             ecosystems. Climate change may enable introduction of new pests.

 Irrigation -      Increasing                Much of the influence on condition is a historical legacy of changes in flow
 regulation,                                 and water regimes. While NRM programs are seeking to reduce the negative
 drainage,                                   influence, this pressure still contributes to a negative trend in condition.
 diversion and                               Climate change will reduce water resource availability and likely increase
 storages                                    detrimental impacts on condition.

 Change in         Influence high only       Water asset condition is tightly linked to rainfall, in terms of flows and water
 rainfall and      under climate change      quality. Changes will be pervasive across the Catchment and water asset
 run-off regime    scenario                  types and generally detrimental, because drier climate overall, increased
                                             drought incidence and intensity and increase in intensity of extreme rainfall
                                             events.

 Increased         Influence high only       Aquatic ecosystems and incidence of blue green algal blooms is influenced
 temperature       under climate change      by water temperature. Changes will be pervasive across the Catchment for
                   scenario                  aquatic ecosystems and water quality and will generally be detrimental.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan    |    13




Table 3: Summary of drivers and pressures with a high influence on the condition of biodiversity resources in the
Goulburn Broken Catchment and the trend of influence under climate change.



            Biodiversity: native vegetation communities, wetlands and waterways and
            associated plants, fungi, animals, microbes and genetic diversity they contain


 STRONGEST          TREND OF INFLUENCE
 DRIVERS OF         ON CONDITION UNDER
 CONDITION          CLIMATE CHANGE         DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS

 Changing land      No change to current   Changing land use values interact with land use and management practice
 use values         level of influence     change as a driver. While this is not always the case, it has often resulted
                                           in increased value on biodiversity compared with production and has
                                           contributed to private and public land conservation of biodiversity assets.
                                           As climate change adds to pressure on biodiversity condition, this may drive
                                           stronger protections (or other interventions) for key biodiversity assets.

 Water              Increasing             Currently a positive influence on the condition of biodiversity as has recently
 availability and                          provided improved balance of environmental and consumptive water
 policy reform                             uses. With reduced rainfall under climate change, competition between
                                           environmental and consumptive water uses is likely to increase and water
                                           availability for environmental flows likely to reduce, leading to a detrimental
                                           influence on biodiversity condition.

 Climate            Increasing             Climate has a strong and pervasive influence on biodiversity condition via
 variability and                           climate-dependent ecosystem processes. Direction of influence depends
 change                                    on climate phases, but overall is assumed to be neither detrimental nor
                                           beneficial. Climate change is likely to have an overall detrimental influence
                                           on biodiversity condition.

 Land use and       No change to current   Much of the influence is a legacy, reflecting historical changes in land
 management         level of influence     use to agriculture and development of water resources. Land use and
 change                                    management continues to change with intensification, neglect or improved
                                           management. Overall, considered to have negative influence on condition
                                           as biodiversity assets continue to decline. Climate change unlikely to directly
                                           modify influence on biodiversity condition.
 STRONGEST          TREND OF INFLUENCE
 PRESSURES ON       ON CONDITION UNDER
 CONDITION          CLIMATE CHANGE         DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS

 Change in fire     Increasing             Key pressure on terrestrial ecosystems in forest and alpine areas (trend for
 regime and                                excessive frequency) and rural land (trend for insufficient fire). Severe fire
 management                                weather to increase with climate change, placing (especially) biodiversity in
                                           fire-sensitive systems in public land areas at risk.

 Cultivation/       No change to current   Much of the influence on condition is from historical activity, although,
 cropping/          level of influence     extension of cultivation to new areas (with changing technology and
 grazing                                   economics) and ongoing grazing is affecting native vegetation remnants in
                                           rural areas. No direct modification of influence on condition with climate
                                           change.
14   | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority




 STRONGEST         TREND OF INFLUENCE
 PRESSURES ON      ON CONDITION UNDER
 CONDITION         CLIMATE CHANGE              DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS

 Extreme           Increasing                  Extreme weather, especially fire and drought, adversely affects biodiversity in
 weather and                                   remnant native vegetation in rural areas and forests on public land. Flooding
 climate events                                generally has a positive influence on condition of riparian, wetland and
                                               aquatic ecosystems. Climate change to increase adverse effects of fire and
                                               drought and may reduce flooding incidence.

 Invasive plants   Increasing                  Invasive species compete with, displace, damage or prey on native flora and
 and animals                                   fauna, reducing population and affecting recruitment. Climate change may
                                               enable the introduction of new invasive species.

 Irrigation –      Increasing                  Much of the influence on condition is a historical legacy of changes in flow
 regulation,                                   and water regimes. While NRM programs are seeking to reduce negative
 drainage,                                     influence, this pressure still contributes to a negative trend in biodiversity
 diversion and                                 condition. Climate change will reduce water resource availability and likely
 storages                                      increase detrimental impact on biodiversity condition.

 Change in         Influence high only under   Ecosystem processes tightly linked to rainfall. Changes will be pervasive
 rainfall regime   climate change scenario     across the Catchment in all ecosystem types and generally detrimental
                                               because drier climate overall and increased drought incidence and intensity
                                               under climate change.

 Increased         Influence high only under   Ecosystem processes are linked to temperature and fire (influenced by
 temperature       climate change scenario     temperature). Changes will be pervasive across the Catchment for terrestrial
                                               and aquatic ecosystems and generally detrimental.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan    |   15




5. Impact of Climate Change on the Catchment’s
Natural Resources

The combination of exposure             Figure 4: Climate change impact assessment framework (adapted from
and sensitivity to climate change       Schröter undated by Clifton and Pelikan 2014).
reflects the potential impact of
climate change on the Goulburn
Broken Catchment’s natural                           Exposure
resources (as per figure 4). See                                                                        Impact
figure 5, 6 and 7 for results of the
                                                    Sensitivity
impact assessment. The criteria
used for the impact assessment are
outlined in table 4 (exposure) and
table 5 (sensitivity).


Table 4: Exposure assessment criteria with rationale (Clifton and Pelikan 2014)

 WEIGHTING     EXPOSURE CRITERION       CRITERION RATIONALE

      1        Maximum                  Temperature influences landscape processes that are important to all natural
               temperature: change      resource classes and social-ecological systems. Maximum temperatures influence
               in annual average        processes including water balance, fire and senescence in some winter-growing
                                        agricultural species. The annual average rather than the seasonal average was
                                        selected due to it being able to broadly represent the suite of climate change-
                                        related temperature impacts across a year.

      2        Average rainfall:        Rainfall is a critical influence on landscape processes across natural resource
               Change in average        classes and social-ecological systems and is a key expression of exposure to
               spring rainfall          climate change. River flows and farming systems, particularly, were considered
                                        to be much more sensitive to changes in autumn and/or spring rainfall than
      3        Average rainfall:
                                        changes in annual average rainfall. Climate change is also projected to lead to
               Change in average
                                        changes in seasonal distribution of rainfall, with more change during winter and
               autumn rainfall
                                        spring than at other times of year.

      3        Surface water yields:    Mean annual flow integrates impacts of changes in rainfall regime (amount,
               change in mean           seasonality and variability), as well as temperature and potential evaporation. It
               annual flow              is a key expression of exposure to climate change for water resources (including
                                        irrigation farming and towns). Change in mean annual flow is more relevant to
                                        agricultural water uses in irrigation regions than for other irrigation users and the
                                        environment. However, it is the only readily available data set that incorporates
                                        climate change projections.

      4        Waterlogging and         Shallow aquifer depth to water table is a key pressure for natural resources in
               salinity: current        the Shepparton Irrigation Region and to a lesser extent in other irrigation areas
               shallow aquifer depth    and parts of the dryland. Shallow water tables are also important in sustaining
               to water table           groundwater-dependent ecosystems, which may be important drought refuges
                                        for native fauna.
                                        Note: Only current conditions can be used as there is no other consistent data set
                                        available for the whole of the Goulburn Broken Catchment.
16   | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority




 WEIGHTING      EXPOSURE CRITERION       CRITERION RATIONALE

       5        Flooding: area           Flooding is a critical influence on ecological processes in rivers, wetlands
                currently inundated      and floodplains and also poses an important climate-related hazard for built
                in 1 per cent annual     infrastructure and some land uses. The current 1 per cent annual exceedance
                exceedance probability   probability event is a good guide to flood extent under climate change, although
                event                    it is likely that floods in the current 1 per cent annual exceedance probability area
                                         may increase in frequency. Recent flood studies have not necessarily considered
                                         climate change and hence only current flood extent can be considered
                                         consistently across the region.

       5        Minimum                  Temperature influences landscape processes that are important to all natural
                temperature: change      resource classes and SESs. Minimum temperatures influence, for example, snow
                in annual average        incidence and persistence and flowering patterns in agricultural and native
                                         species. The annual average rather than the seasonal average was selected
                                         due to it being able to broadly represent the suite of climate change-related
                                         temperature impacts across a year.


Table 5: Sensitivity assessment criteria with rationale (Clifton and Pelikan 2014)

 WEIGHTING      EXPOSURE CRITERION       CRITERION RATIONALE

       1        Habitat condition:       The condition of native vegetation, particularly in terms of the level of
                native vegetation        fragmentation and disturbance, and its connectivity to large, contiguous areas
                fragmentation or         is considered to strongly influence its vulnerability to a variety of pressures,
                connectivity             including those arising from, or exacerbated by, climate change. These are critical
                                         sensitivity issues for terrestrial biodiversity and riparian and wetland vegetation.
       1        Habitat condition:
                native vegetation
                condition

       2        River health: index      This is a measure of the condition of riparian vegetation and hence a key
                of stream condition      indicator of river health and the sensitivity of rivers to various pressures,
                streamside zone          including climate change. As this criterion incorporates vegetation condition and
                                         connectivity, it partly duplicates the habitat condition criteria.

       3        Rarity: native           Ecological vegetation class bioregional conservation status was the data set used
                vegetation range         to represent this criterion, highlighting ecological vegetation classes that have a
                under current            restricted distribution. These are considered to be vulnerable to climate change
                conditions               because:
                                          • they have a naturally small range and may therefore be adapted to quite
                                            specific climatic conditions that may no longer exist at their current locations
                                            as a result of climate change.
                                          • clearing and other disturbances have modified their natural range and hence
                                            they are likely to be subject to a variety of other environmental pressures and
                                            hence most likely less resilient to climate change.

       3        Land use: current land   Land use was classified according to sensitivity to various impacts of climate
                use                      change. Data illustrates the variable nature of sensitivity to climate change.

       3        Land and soil health     Several topography and landform criteria have been included in this criterion,
                hazards                  such as slope and susceptibility to various soil health hazards (e.g. acidity, salinity,
                                         erosion). This highlights sensitivity to climate change from a land and soil health
                                         perspective.

       4        Wetland health:          The intention was to incorporate a measure of the hydrologic regime
                proximity to wetlands    experienced by wetlands and hence their health from index of wetland condition
                                         datasets. However, there is insufficient data to represent the criterion across
                                         the Catchment. Proximity to wetlands is used as a surrogate, on the basis that
                                         wetlands are sensitive locations due to their dependence on strongly climate-
                                         influenced factors such as river flows and/or water tables.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan                                          |    17




Figure 5: Impact of climate change on the Goulburn                                                                       Figure 6: Impact of climate change on the Goulburn
Broken Catchment’s natural resources in scenario 2030.                                                                   Broken Catchment’s natural resources in scenario 2050.



                                                    Cobram                                                                                                               Cobram


                                                                      Yarrawonga                                                                                                         Yarrawonga
                             Nathalia                                                                                                                Nathalia
                                                Numurkah                                                                                                               Numurkah




                  Kyabram                                                                                                                 Kyabram

                                              Shepparton                                                                                                           Shepparton

                                Tatura                                                                                                                  Tatura


                                                                                       Benalla                                                                                                         Benalla
                 Rushworth                                                                                                               Rushworth




                                                           Euroa                                                                                                                Euroa
                           Nagambie                                                                                                              Nagambie




                          Seymour                                                            Mansfield                                           Seymour                                                     Mansfield


                                                                                                         Mt Buller                                                                                                       Mt Buller
                                                                     Alexandra                                                                                                          Alexandra
                    Broadford            Yea                                                                                                Broadford            Yea


               Kilmore                                                                           Jamieson                              Kilmore                                                                   Jamieson




                                                                       Marysville                                                                                                         Marysville

Scenario 2030                                                                                         Woods Point          Scenario 2050                                                                             Woods Point

RCP 4.5                                                                                                                    RCP 4.5
Low change: warmer 		                                                                                                      Moderate change:
with little change in rainfal                                                                                              hotter and drier




Figure 7: Impact of climate change on the Goulburn
Broken Catchment’s natural resources in scenario 2070.
                                                                                                                             Potential Impact

                                                      Cobram                                                                        Very Low
                                                                         Yarrawonga
                                Nathalia                                                                                            Low
                                                    Numurkah


                                                                                                                                    Medium
                                                                                                                                                                                                       0            20               40
                     Kyabram                                                                                                        High
                                                Shepparton

                                     Tatura
                                                                                                                                    Very High                                                                    Kilometres
                                                                                          Benalla
                    Rushworth




                                                             Euroa
                              Nagambie                                                                                       Please note: These maps are not intended to incorporate all
                                                                                                                             decision-making elements but represent an assessment of climate
                                                                                                                             change impact based on spatially-enabled criteria for exposure
                                                                                                                             and sensitivity as part of a climate change vulnerability assessment.
                             Seymour                                                             Mansfield                   Vulnerability is used to highlight locations and issues to focus
                                                                                                                             further analysis, including risk assessment and management. These
                                                                                                             Mt Buller
                                                                       Alexandra                                             maps should be considered in conjunction with the Climate Change
                         Broadford            Yea
                                                                                                                             Adaptation Plan for Natural Resource Management in the Goulburn
                 Kilmore                                                                            Jamieson                 Broken Catchment, Victoria, 2016 in its entirety.



Scenario 2070
                                                                          Marysville
                                                                                                                             Maps showing the exposure and sensitivity
                                                                                                          Woods Point
RCP 8.5                                                                                                                      assessment results independently can be found in
High change: much
hotter and much drier                                                                                                        Appendix B and C respectively.
18   | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority




6. Vulnerability of the Catchment’s Natural
Resources to Climate Change

The vulnerability assessment is a          Figure 8: Vulnerability assessment framework (adapted from Schröter
combination of the impacts and             undated by Clifton and Pelikan 2014).
adaptive capacity assessment (see
figure 8). See figure 9, 10 and 11                      Impact
for the results of this assessment.
                                                                                                   Vulnerability
Table 6 outlines the criteria used to
                                                 Adaptive Capacity
assess adaptive capacity.




Table 6: Adaptive capacity assessment criteria with rationale (Clifton and Pelikan 2014).

 WEIGHTING        EXPOSURE CRITERION        CRITERION RATIONALE

        1         Biodiversity and          The tenure of private and public land is classified in a way that indicates
                  river health: level of    its likely exposure to pressures for disturbances, such as grazing,
                  protection provided       cultivation and timber harvesting. It is therefore considered indicative of
                  by tenure                 adaptive capacity. Protective private land tenures include areas subject to
                                            management agreements and conservation covenants. Public land tenure
                                            looks at 64 tenure categories derived from the Public Land Management
                                            dataset.
        2         Irrigation farming:       Access to irrigation water supply is considered to be a key measure
                  access to irrigation      of adaptive capacity for agricultural land uses, as (in regulated water
                  supply                    catchments) it reduces dependency on annual rainfalls.
        3         Natural resource          Previous engagement with NRM programs is considered to be a measure
                  management works          of planned adaptive capacity. All forms of NRM program works are
                                            considered, including, for example, fencing, revegetation, and waterway
                                            rehabilitation.
        4         Land: whole farm or       Whole farm or property planning is widely used to establish a framework
                  property planning         for improved and sustainable management of farming operations in
                                            dryland and irrigation areas. It typically leads to other environmental works,
                                            including improvements in irrigation layout and drainage and protection
                                            and enhancement of environmental assets.


As outlined, the vulnerability assessment maps reflects criteria for impacts (exposure and sensitivity) (see section
5) and adaptive capacity (see above).

See Appendix D for a map showing the independent results of the assessment of current (from the year 2014)
adaptive capacity of the Catchment’s natural resources to climate change. Please note that ongoing investment
in management actions will be required to maintain and increase adaptive capacity as climatic conditions change
over time (see section 7.5 and 7.6).
Climate Change Adaptation Plan                                          |    19




Figure 9: Vulnerability of the Goulburn Broken Catchment’s                                                       Figure 10: Vulnerability of the Goulburn Broken Catchment’s
natural assets to climate change in scenario 2030                                                                natural assets to climate change in scenario 2050



                                                 Cobram                                                                                                          Cobram


                                                                  Yarrawonga                                                                                                     Yarrawonga
                             Nathalia                                                                                                        Nathalia
                                               Numurkah                                                                                                        Numurkah




                  Kyabram                                                                                                         Kyabram

                                           Shepparton                                                                                                      Shepparton

                                Tatura                                                                                                          Tatura


                                                                               Benalla                                                                                                         Benalla
                 Rushworth                                                                                                       Rushworth




                                                        Euroa                                                                                                           Euroa
                         Nagambie                                                                                                        Nagambie




                         Seymour                                                         Mansfield                                       Seymour                                                     Mansfield


                                                                                                     Mt Buller                                                                                                   Mt Buller
                                                                Alexandra                                                                                                       Alexandra
                    Broadford            Yea                                                                                        Broadford            Yea


               Kilmore                                                                     Jamieson                            Kilmore                                                                   Jamieson




                                                                  Marysville                                                                                                      Marysville


Scenario 2030                                                                                   Woods Point        Scenario 2050                                                                             Woods Point


RCP 4.5                                                                                                            RCP 4.5
Low change: warmer 		                                                                                              Moderate change:
with little change in rainfall                                                                                     hotter and drier




Figure 11: Vulnerability of the Goulburn Broken Catchment’s
natural assets to climate change in scenario 2070



                                                 Cobram


                                                                 Yarrawonga
                             Nathalia
                                               Numurkah



                                                                                                                     Vulnerability
                  Kyabram

                                           Shepparton                                                                       Very Low
                               Tatura


                                                                               Benalla
                                                                                                                            Low
                Rushworth

                                                                                                                            Medium
                                                        Euroa
                                                                                                                                                                                               0            20               40
                         Nagambie
                                                                                                                            High

                                                                                                                            Very High                                                                    Kilometres
                         Seymour                                                     Mansfield


                                                                                                 Mt Buller
                                                                Alexandra
                   Broadford             Yea                                                                         Please note: These maps are not intended to incorporate all
                                                                                           Jamieson
                                                                                                                     decision-making elements but represent an assessment of climate
              Kilmore
                                                                                                                     change impact based on spatially-enabled criteria for exposure
                                                                                                                     and sensitivity as part of a climate change vulnerability assessment.
                                                                  Marysville
                                                                                                                     Vulnerability is used to highlight locations and issues to focus
Scenario 2070                                                                                   Woods Point
                                                                                                                     further analysis, including risk assessment and management. These
                                                                                                                     maps should be considered in conjunction with the Climate Change
RCP 8.5
                                                                                                                     Adaptation Plan for Natural Resource Management in the Goulburn
High change: much
                                                                                                                     Broken Catchment, Victoria, 2016 in its entirety.
hotter and much drier
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