COVID-19 economic data tracker - Truist
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
COVID-19 economic data tracker
Michael Skordeles, AIF®
Week 35 – September 3, 2021
Senior U.S. Macro Strategist
Trend watch and what’s new this week of workers are back in the office with wide disparities regionally and
by industry.
U.S. virus trends in terms of new cases and the number of
hospitalizations appear to be stabilizing nationally (slide 3). Lastly, two recent work surveys show that office workers want
Meanwhile, there are several signs that the current wave is peaking, flexibility, but also don’t want to completely ditch offices (slide 11).
including cases (slide 7) and hospitalization rates (slide 8) in hotspot These considerations certainly complicate decisions regarding
states. commercial real estate, while also reinforcing the reasons many
companies view offices as a critical part of their operations.
However, the death rate is climbing, though is considerably below the
prior wave (slide 3). Additionally, with schools restarting, we’re
Bottom line
growing concerned that children under age 12 are both increasingly
getting infected and being hospitalized. While not huge numbers, and The August employment data released earlier today showed job
COVID-19 deaths for this age group are rare, this is problematic growth stepped lower due to a confluence of factors, including the
insofar as the supply of critical care beds for children is rather limited seasonality and the delta variant. However, most of the traditional
in the U.S. economic data remains quite strong, including consumer spending,
housing figures, as well as several gauges of services and
The pace of U.S. vaccinations continues to climb, topping 900,000 per
manufacturing.
day for the first time since early July (slide 5). Over 60% of Americans
older than 12 are fully vaccinated and more than 70% have gotten at The recovery continues to plow forward, though it remains uneven
least one dose. depending on the region and industry. Indeed, as the delta variant
demonstrated, COVID-19 is not fully behind us. However, the world is
This week, we revisit vaccine hesitancy (slide 9). In addition to the
getting much better at managing COVID-19. More importantly, further
vaccination pace increasing, it appears that overall vaccine hesitancy
COVID-19 variants and related outbreaks have not shutdown the
has dwindled. Yet, the remaining unvaccinated appear quite adamant.
global economy nor will they derail the recovery.
Also, we highlight new office data (slide 10). It shows roughly a third
Securities and insurance products and services –
Are not FDIC or any other government agency insured | are not bank guaranteed | may lose valueU.S. COVID-19 economic data tracker matrix
Relative
Indicator What we’re watching
trend
New cases and hospitalizations have stabilized nationally, but the death rate is increasing. But there
U.S. state reopenings are several signs that the current wave is peaking in hotspot states. August employment data stalled
due to a confluence of factors, including the seasonality and the delta variant.
TSA air passenger Weekly passengers fell 7.1% WoW to 11.5 million, the sixth weekly drop but August is seasonally weaker.
throughput Passenger counts are -29% below the 2019 weekly average of 16.1M and -26% vs. the same week in 2019.
Rose slightly to -8.6% as the top states/cities jumped. Top positive states were led by Florida (+60%) and
OpenTable restaurant
Arizona (+27%); bottom are Pennsylvania (-49%) and NY (-49%). Miami (+115%) and Ft. Lauderdale (+76%)
bookings led the top cities; bottom are NYC (-67%), San Fran (-59%), and Philadelphia (-58%).
Summer vacations for families are mostly finished. 7-day averages relative to 2020: Parks +31%,
Google mobility Grocery/Pharmacy +2%, Residential +5%, Workplaces -25%, Transit -21%, Retail/Restaurant/Recreation -6%.
Occupancy fell to 61.0%, but August is seasonally weak. The average daily rate was $131.91, up 3.2% from the
Hotel occupancy same week in 2019. Revenue per available room was $80.53, down 5.5% from the same week in 2019.
Apartment rent Payments through Aug. 6 rose to 80.2%, nearly back to 81.2% July ’20. Full month rents for July ’21 were
payments 94.9%, down from July ‘19 (96.6%) but above the post-pandemic average of 94.7%.
Rail carloads rebounded, snapping a two-week slide, to the highest level in eight weeks. Container volumes at
Freight top 3 U.S. ports rose 3.8% MoM in July and were 11% above July 2019.
It slipped to 97.5 from 98.1, which matched the highest reading since December 2018. The low for this cycle
Staffing index was 59.6 set in April 2020.
Data Sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Our World in Data, Transportation Security Administration, OpenTable,
Trend relative to whether it is favorable for economic growth: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, STR/CoStar, National Multifamily Housing Council Rent
Positive Negative Neutral / Mixed Payment Tracker, American Staffing Association. Week-over-weak and year-over-year change are abbreviated
as WoW and YoY, respectively.U.S. cases and hospitalizations up, death rate also rising
New confirmed cases 7-day moving average Tests performed 7-day moving average
300,000
3,000,000
250,000 167,040
2,500,000 1,584,884
200,000
2,000,000
150,000 1,500,000
100,000 1,000,000
50,000 500,000
0 0
May-21
Jul-21
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-21
Jan-21
Jun-21
May-20
Jul-20
Jul-21
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
May-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Aug-21
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
150,000 Total hospitalized currently U.S. COVID-19 deaths
Total deaths (r-axis)
103,558
4,000 Change in deaths 7-DMA (l-axis) 700,000
100,000 600,000
3,000 1,401 500,000
400,000
2,000
50,000 300,000
1,000 200,000
100,000
0 - 0
May-20
Jul-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Oct-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Aug-21
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
May-20
Jul-20
May-21
Jul-21
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Aug-21
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
Data Sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University through September 2, 2021. Data for 50 U.S. states plus American Samoa, Washington D.C., Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and U.S.
Virgin Islands. 7-day moving average (DMA).Global vaccinations climbing, rest of the world catching up to U.S.
2.0 Cumulative vaccine doses administered Fully vaccinated by region (in millions)
(in billions)
China (2.08B) 2,145.4
1.5
India (661.6M) World
European Union (534.2M) (5.4B, not shown) 1,352.4
1.0 United States (371.3M)
Brazil (195.5M)
0.5 Japan (132.0M) 357.9 252.6 174.6 134.3 39.2
0.0
World Asia Europe North United South Africa
America States America
Daily pace of vaccine doses administered in Global vaccine doses administered per day
25 China (in millions) 50 (7-DMA, in millions)
37.7
20 40
15 30
10 12.6 20
5 10
0 0
Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21
Data Sources: Truist IAG, Our World in Data, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through September 1, 2021. U.S. figures includes all 50 states plus Washington D.C., U.S. military installations and
territories. Figures for the United Kingdom are not included in the European Union. 7-day moving average (DMA).Over 60% of Americans older than 12 are fully vaccinated, pace climbing
U.S. vaccinations (percentage of population) Number of Americans fully vaccinated
200 (in millions) 174.6
Fully vaccinated At least one dose 92.1%
74.4% 81.8%
72.4% 150
61.9% 61.5% 63.6%
52.6%
100
50
% of total % of Americans % of adults % of Americans 0
population age 12 and over over 65 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21
U.S. vaccine doses administered per day U.S. COVID-19 percentage of cases
(7-DMA, in millions) and deaths by age
4
30.5%
Cases Deaths 27.1%
3 22.5% 21.6%
19.8%
0.91 16.6%
14.7%
2 15.6%
11.0%
1 7.3%
2.3% 3.2% 3.7% 2.1%
0.0% 0.6% 1.3%
0.0%
0
Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 0-4 5-17 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Data Sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left, bottom right: Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through September 1, 2021. Top right: Our World in Data, Centers for
Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through September 1, 2021. U.S. figures includes all 50 states plus Washington D.C., U.S. military installations and territories. Bottom left: Bloomberg, CDC, through September 2,
2021. 7-day moving average (DMA). Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.Activity-based trends have ebbed, but likely seasonal rather than delta strain
NY Fed weekly economic index 75 U.S. community mobility (7-day average)
16% 50
7.7%
12% 25
8% 0
4%
-25
0%
-4% -50
Grocery & Pharmacy Transit
-8% -75 Workplaces Parks
-12% -100 Residential Retail & Recreation
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
May-21
Jul-21
Apr-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Aug-21
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
20% OpenTable bookings year-over-year % TSA checkpoint traveler throughput
change (7-day average) (7-day average, in millions)
0%
3 2019 2020
-20%
-40% 2
-60% -8.6%
1.65
-80% 1
-100%
0
May-20
Jul-20
Jul-21
Apr-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
May-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Aug-21
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
1 41 81 121 161 201 241 281 321 361
Day of the year
Data Sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left: Bloomberg, NY Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index through August 28, 2021. Top right: (U.S. Community Mobility) Google
COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports 7-day average through August 28. Bottom left: Bloomberg, OpenTable 7-day average through September 1. Bottom right: Bloomberg, Transportation Security Administration
(TSA) 7-day average through September 1.U.S. regional hotspots appear to be stabilizing in most, declining in some
The delta variant caused regional hotspots, including in Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Arkansas, and Nevada. Texas and Alabama had hiccups this
past week, but subsequently dropped. (Florida is reporting COVID-19 data weekly.) The delta variant complicates further reopening, including for schools,
while also illustrating the necessity of vaccines.
COVID-19 new cases – largest states COVID-19 new cases – biggest percentage
(7-day moving average) change (7-day moving average)
25,000
California New York 7,000 Missouri Arkansas Louisiana
Texas Florida
20,000 6,000 Nevada Alabama Mississippi
5,000
15,000
4,000
10,000
3,000
5,000 2,000
1,000
-
-
Data Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University, data through September 2, 2021.More signs delta strain is peaking
The rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations nationally for the past seven days has crested. Similarly, the state-level percentage of COVID-19 hospitalizations
has stabilized in the all of the hotspot states and appears to have peaked in Florida and Louisiana.
Change in COVID-19 hospitalizations COVID-19 hospitalizations as
4,000 (7-day moving average) percentage of total beds
35% Missouri Arkansas
3,000
Louisiana Nevada
2,000 30% Alabama Mississippi
1,000 Florida
25%
0
20%
-1,000
216 15%
-2,000
-3,000 10%
-4,000
5%
May-20
Jul-20
Jul-21
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
May-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Aug-21
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
0%
Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, data through September 2, 2021. 7-day moving average (DMA).Overall vaccine hesitancy dwindles, but remainder appear adamant
Vaccine hesitancy has dramatically declined since the spring due to several factors, including the surge caused by the delta variant, increasing vaccine
mandates, and full approval by the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for people age 16 and older. Yet, full FDA approval
doesn’t appear to be enough to sway the majority of unvaccinated adults.
Likelihood of getting COVID-19 vaccine Likelihood of vaccination in next 30 days
given full approval by FDA
April 2-5 Aug 27-30
72%
Not very
likely
11%
47%
Likely
24% 29%
19% Not at all
14% likely
8% 10% 61%
6%
Already Very/somewhat Not very likely Not at all likely
vaccinated likely
Sources: left chart: Truist IAG, Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index, survey conducted April 2-5, 2021 compared to August 27-30, 2021. Right chart: Truist IAG, Morning Consult, poll of unvaccinated adults conducted
August 24-29, 2021, with a margin of error +/-4%. Figures may not sum to 100% due to rounding.Back to office remains impacted with wide disparities regionally and by
industry
Roughly two-thirds of office workers are working from home 18 months later. There large differences regionally, as San Francisco is at 19%, while all
three of the Texas markets—Dallas, Austin, Houston—are above 46%. There’s also a dramatic contrasts by industry, as law firms are 47% compared to
just 33.1% for all industries.
U.S. back to work barometer index U.S. back to work barometer index by city
(10-city average, all industries)
New York City Washington, D.C.
120
120 Chicago Philadelphia
San Jose San Francisco
100
100 Los Angeles Dallas
Houston Austin
80 80
60 33.1 60
40 40
20 20
- 0
May-20
Jul-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Apr-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Aug-21
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
May-20
Jul-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Apr-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Aug-21
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Kastle Systems based on building access control systems data relative to a pre-COVID baseline, averaged weekly; data through August 25, 2021.Workers want flexibility, but also don’t want to completely ditch offices
When workers return to the office might be up for debate due to the delta variant, but two recent surveys show that workers clearly want workplace
flexibility. While the results are mixed, the majority of office-workers prefer work-from-home (WFH) or hybrid approaches with a combination of days in the
office and others WFH. Conversely, less than a third of respondents in either survey want to WFH on a full-time basis.
Workplace preference Workplace preference
Morning Consult/NY Times survey Eden/Wakefield survey
WFH full-time
31% WFH full-time
15% Hybrid home-
office
Office full- 62%
time
45% Hybrid home- Office full-time
office 23%
24%
Data Sources: left chart: Truist IAG, Morning Consult for the New York Times; national survey of 950 workers, conducted in mid-August 2021. Right chart: Truist IAG, Wakefield Research for Eden; U.S.
survey of 1,000 workers who recently returned to the office, conducted between July 21 and July 27, 202.Disclosures Advisory managed account programs entail risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors. Please speak to your advisor to request a firm brochure which includes program details, including risks, fees and expenses. Truist Wealth is a marketing name used by Truist Financial Corporation. Services offered by the following affiliates of Truist Financial Corporation: Banking products and services, including loans and deposit accounts, are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, Member FDIC. Trust and investment management services are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, and SunTrust Trust Company. Securities, brokerage accounts and /or insurance (including annuities) are offered by Truist Investment Services, Inc., and P.J. Robb Variable Corp., which Delaware are each SEC registered broker-dealers, members FINRA, SIPC, and a licensed insurance agency where applicable. Life insurance products are offered through Truist Life Insurance Services, a division of Crump Life Insurance Services, Inc., AR license #100103477, a wholly owned subsidiary of Truist Insurance Holdings, Inc. Investment advisory services are offered by Truist Advisory Services, Inc., GFO Advisory Services, LLC, Sterling Capital Management, LLC, and Precept Advisory Group, LLC, each SEC registered investment advisers. Sterling Capital Funds are advised by Sterling Capital Management, LLC. While this information is believed to be accurate, Truist Financial Corporation, including its affiliates, does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of, or otherwise endorse these analyses or market data. The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but Truist Financial Corporation makes no representation or guarantee as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained herein does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, company, or industry involved. This material is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Opinions and information expressed herein are subject to change without notice. TIS and/or its affiliates, including your Advisor, may have issued materials that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this commentary, and all opinions and information are believed to be reflective of judgments and opinions as of the date that material was originally published. TIS is under no obligation to ensure that other materials are brought to the attention of any recipient of this commentary. Comments regarding tax implications are informational only. Truist and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice. You should consult your individual tax or legal professional before taking any action that may have tax or legal consequences. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance. TIS/TAS shall accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this material, nor shall TIS/TAS treat any recipient of this material as a customer or client simply by virtue of the receipt of this material. The information herein is for persons residing in the United States of America only and is not intended for any person in any other jurisdiction. The information contained in this material is produced and copyrighted by Truist Financial Corporation and any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law. TIS/TAS’s officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have positions in securities, options, rights, or warrants mentioned or discussed in this material. © 2021 Truist Financial Corporation. Truist, the Truist logo and Truist purple are service marks of Truist Financial Corporation CN2021-3275 EXP 12-2021
You can also read
