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Dairy Report 2019
For a better
understanding of
the dairy world
20th Anniversary Edition
IFCN
The Dairy Research Network
Introduction
Dear Friends,
This IFCN Dairy Report 2019 compiles in a most comprehensive overview,
the status of the dairy world and gives insights into the IFCN Research.
The IFCN Mission and Vision
IFCN Mission: We create a better understanding
of the dairy world by providing comparable
data, knowledge and inspiration.
IFCN Content updates 2019 Status of the IFCN Research Network in 2019
Solid Corrected Milk (SCM): IFCN has implemented a new standar- The dairy sector analysis covered over 200 countries. In the farm com-
disation methodology of milk content. SCM reflects the content of the parison, 176 typical dairy farms from 67 dairy regions and 54 countries
produced milk better, as fat and protein are weighted equally. were analysed. In 2019 the research network grew substantially via new
countries in farm and dairy sector analysis.
Farm economics: Special attention was given to the following areas:
typical farm representativeness, robotic milking systems, calculation of
IFCN Dairy Report 2019
resilience and sustainability of dairy farms.
Chapter 1: Cost comparison summarises results on costs, returns,
The dairy sector: To understand the dairy world better, it is important profitability and productivity of dairy farms worldwide. A special focus
to observe the global dairy market and its short-term milk production lies on sustainability and resilience of dairy farms this year.
outlook. By monitoring the market monthly and forecasting milk
Chapter 2: Global monitoring provides a broad overview on speci-
supply, price and farm economics for the global market, IFCN can draw
fic dairy issues such as milk prices, feed prices and milk:feed price ratio
conclusions on milk supply and milk price trends and drivers for the
and monthly milk price transmission this year.
next 12 months.
Chapter 3: Milk Production fact sheets prepared for 120 countries,
Outlook 2040: As dairy business is changing very rapidly, IFCN has
representing 98% of world milk production with comparable informa-
developed scenarios for the long-term outlook of the dairy world for
tion on:
over 200 countries until 2040.
• Milk density and milk movements in countries
Highlights – IFCN events in 2019 • Dairy farm numbers and farm size trends
• Dairy farm structure analysis and trends
IFCN Dairy Conference 2019 • Price analysis for milk, beef, feed and land
The focus of this conference was „Changing dairy world:
Moreover, the key results are summarised at the beginning of the
2000 – 2020 – 2040“ with a focus on „special types of milk“.
chapter via world maps.
DMK hosted this event in Berlin, Germany, in June.
Chapter 4: IFCN Methods: This chapter is dedicated to explain the
IFCN Supporter Conference 2019 methods used for the IFCN Analyses. Moreover it highlights the
This event was held in September in Brno, following topics: a) robotic milking systems, b) reviewing the water
Czech Republic. The topic explored „Special types footprint methodology, c) monthly supply forecast model, and d) deve-
of milk – Complexities and Opportunities“. lopment of elevator stories to understand more clearly what a typical
Brazzale was the event hosting partner. farm represents in a country.
IFCN Data Analysis Workshop 2019
Acknowledgement
The workshop took place for the first time to transmit profound
We would like to thank all IFCN Research Partners, Supporter Partners,
knowledge and thorough information on the (background) framework
Institutional Partners and the colleagues working in the IFCN Dairy
and development of the dairy market to novices in the field of dairy
Research Centre during the last 20 years. It was a pleasure to work
economics.
with you and strengthen the network in 2019. We are looking forward
to our activities in 2020.
IFCN Regional Workshop 2019
This workshop, the 8th of its series, will be organised in Bangalore, India
from 15th to 16th October. The focus will be to define Dairy 2.0 for the
Indian dairy. The event will be sponsored Kemin, ITC Limited, Prognosis,
and ST Genetics.
Anders Fagerberg Torsten Hemme
Chairman of the IFCN Board Managing Director
© IFCN Dairy Report 2019 2
Participating dairy economicsts / co-editors of the IFCN Dairy Report
Dairy Expert Dairy Expert
Djellali Abderrazak | Horizons Steve Couture | Dairy Farmers Hauke Tergast | Johann Heinrich von Stepan Ten | Dairy Consultant, Kostanay,
Agro-alimentaires, Gouraya, Algeria of Canada, Ottawa, Canada Thünen Institute, Braunschweig, Germany Kazakhstan
Hugo Quattrochi | Unión Productores de Éva Vöneki, Dániel Mándi-Nagy |
Mario E. Olivares | Cooprinsem, Osorno, Renars Sturmanis | Latvian Rural
Leche Cuenca Mar y Sierras, Tandil, Argentina Research Institute of Agricultural Economics
Chile Advisory and Training Centre, Ozolnieki,
(AKI), Budapest, Hungary
Latvia
Dairy Consultant
BINSAR FARMS
CREAMERY
Lusine Tadevosyan, Vardan Urutyan |
ICARE, Yerevan, Armenia Sam Shi | Dairy Consultant, Beijing, China
Pankaj Navani | Binsar Farms Pvt. Ltd.
Janti Khurd, Haryana, India Benas Kryževičius | UAB „Linas Agro“
Konsultacijos, Panevėžys, Lithuania
Jon Hauser | Xcheque Pty Ltd, Glen Alvie, Dou Ming, Zhao Hengxin | Beijing Orient
Victoria, Australia Dairy Consultants Ltd, Beijing, China
Gunjan Bhandari | National Dairy
Research Institute, Karnal, India
Monja Majerus | Ministère de l’Agriculture,
de la Viticulture et du Développement rural,
Luxembourg, Luxembourg
Josef Hambrusch, Leopold Kirner |
Liu Changquan | Sino-Dutch Dairy
Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics, Rural and
Development Center, Beijing, China
Mountain Research, Vienna, Austria
G. Chokkalingam | National Dairy De-
velopment Board, Anand, Gujarat, India
José Luis Dávalos Flores | National
Autonomous University of Mexico,
Mohammad Mohi Uddin | Bangladesh Enrique Ortega, René A. Pérez R. | Tequisquiapan, Mexico
Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Consejo Nacional de la Calidad de la Leche y
Bangladesh Prevención de la Mastitis, Bogotá, Colombia Ali Sadeghi-Sefidmazgi | Isfahan
University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran
Rigoberto Becerra | Establo Gibraltar,
Gomez Palacio, Durango, Mexico
Anatoli Takun, Sviatlana Takun | Iveta Bošková | ÚZEI, Prague,
The Institute of System Research in Czech Republic Farhad Mirzaei | Iranian Association for
Agroindustrial Complex of NAS, Minsk, Belarus Animal Production Management, Karaj, Iran
Nicola Shadbolt | Massey University,
Palmerston North, New Zealand
Joeri Deuninck | Department of Agricul- Morten Nyland Christensen | SEGES,
Aarhus, Denmark Fiona Thorne | Teagasc, Dublin, Ireland
ture and Fisheries, Knowledge Quality
and Fisheries Division, Brussel, Belgium
Olusegun Oloruntobi | MoreMeat-
Liron Tamir | Israel Dairy Board, MoreMilk Initiative for Development,
Adel Khattab, Wael Nagy | Tanta
Rishon-Le'Zion, Israel Adamasingba, Ibadan, Nigeria
Lorildo A. Stock | Embrapa, University, Tanta, Egypt
Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brazil
Alberto Menghi | Centro Ricerche
Olli Niskanen | Natural Resources Ola Flaten, Bjørn Gunnar Hansen |
Natália Grigol, Sergio de Zen | Produzioni Animali, Reggio Emilia, Italy
Institute Finland (LUKE), Helsinki, Finland NIBIO, Ås, Norway
CEPEA, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Hironobu Takeshita | J-milk, Japan Milk
Festus Kongyu Ali | University of Benoît Rubin | Institut de l’Elevage, Academic Alliance, Nagoya University, Waseem Shaukat | Solve Agri (Private)
Dschang, Bafoussam, Cameroon Derval, France Tokyo, Japan Limited, Lahore, Pakistan
3 © IFCN Dairy Report 2019
Participating dairy economicsts / co-editors of the IFCN Dairy Report
Researchers participating only in the country profile
analysis or in specific country information:
Shakirullah Akhtar | Dairy Expert, Mc Loyd Banda | Department of Agricu-
Carlos A. Gomez | Universidad Muhittin Özder, Selçuk Akkaya |
Afghanistan ltural Research Services Bunda College,
Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima, Turkish Milk Council, Ankara, Turkey
Lilongwe, Malawi
Peru Ilir Kapaj | Agricultural University,
Tirana, Albania Anjas Asmara Samsudin | Universiti
Putra, Selangor, Malaysia
Helen Quinn | Dairy Australia, Victoria,
Southbank, Australia Anatolie Ignat, Eugenia Lucasenco |
National Istitute for Economic
Steven Aikiriza | SNV, Kampala, Uganda Jafar Jafarov | Azerbaijan State Research, Chisinau, Moldova
Ewa Kołoszycz | West Pomeranian Agriculture University, Ganja, Azerbaijan
University of Technology, Szczecin, Mohamed Taher Sraïri | Institut
Erwin Wauters | Institute for Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II, Rabat, Morocco
Poland
Agricultural and Fisheries Research,
Merelbeke, Belgium Rein van der Hoek | International
Center for Tropical Agriculture, Mana-
Olga Kozak | National Scientific Tashi Samdup, N. B. Tamang | gua, Nicaragua
Centre, Institute of Agrarian Department of Livestock, Ministry of
Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine Agriculture & Forests, Thimphu, Bhutan Naomi K. Torreta, Maria Carmen
Vladimir Surovtsev, Mikhail Ponomarev, A. Briones | National Dairy Authority,
Felix Menzel | Dairy Expert, Mezza Quezon City, Philippines
Julia Nikulina | Northwest Research Institute
Sucre, Bolivia
of Economics and Organization of Agricul- António Moitinho Rodrigues | School
ture, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation Konstantin Stankov | Trakia of Agriculture – Polytechic Institute of
University, Stara Zagora, Bulgaria Castelo Branco, Portugal
Mark Topliff | Agriculture & Horticulture
LLC Streda Development Board, Kenilworth, Henri Bayemi | Institute of Agricultural Guillermo Ortiz Colon | Dairy Expert,
Consulting Warwickshire, United Kingdom Research for Development (IRAD), Mayagüez, Puerto Rico
Yaoundé, Cameroon
Rodica Chetroiu | Institute for Agricu-
Artyom Belov | LLC Streda Consulting, Francisco José Arias Cordero | Dos lture Economy and Rural Development
Moscow, Russian Federation Pinos, Alajuela, Costa Rica (ICEADR), Bucharest, Romania
Rodrigo Gallegos | Centro de la Michael Mishchenko | Dairy Intel-
Jorge Artagaveytia, Ana Pedemonte | Industria Láctea, Quito, Ecuador ligence Agency, Moscow, Russian
Instituto Nacional de la Leche, Montevi- Federation
Katri Kall | Estonian University of Life
deo, Uruguay
Sciences, Tartu, Estonia John Musemakweli | Rwanda National
Rade Popovic | University of Novi Sad, Jean-Marc Chaumet | Institut de Dairy Platform, Kigali, Rwanda
Subotica, Serbia L‘Elevage, Paris, France Christian Corniaux | CIRAD / PPZS,
Giorgi Khatiashvili | Caucasus Dakar Etoile, Senegal
Genetics ,Tbilisi, Georgia Ben Moljk | Agricultural Institute
Hernan Tejeda | University of Idaho, Idaho, USA
Łukasz Wyrzykowski | IFCN, Kiel, of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Germany Seung Yong Park | Yonam College,
Bertus van Heerden | Milk Producers‘ Cheonon, South Korea
Irene Tzouramani | Agriculture
Organisation, Pretoria, South Africa
Economics Research Institute (AGRERI), Hemali Kothalawala | Department
Hellenic Agriculture Organization – of Animal Production and Health,
Robert Hagevoort | New Mexico State DEMETER, Athens, Greece Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
University, New Mexico, USA
Bjarni Ragnar Brynjólfsson | Nazar Omer Hassan Salih |
Icelandic Dairies Association, Al - Neelain University, Khartoum,
National Network Team (J. Llorente, Reykjavík, Iceland Sudan
C. García, A. García, P. García) | TRAGSATEC Marjuki | Brawijaya University, Uliana Rusetska | Swedish University
& Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Malang, Indonesia of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala,
Alimentación, Madrid, Spain Bill Zweigbaum | Farm Credit East, Sweden
Greenwich, New York, USA Othman Alqaisi | Sultan Qaboos
University, Muscat, Oman, Jordan Juliane Liu | Forefront Enterprise Co.
Ltd., Taipei, Taiwan
Francis Karin | Egerton University,
Rongia, Nakuru, Kenya Valery Sonola | Livestock
Training Agency, Tanzania
Christian Gazzarin | Agroscope, Tänikon, Azat Mukaliev | Kyrgyz State
Switzerland Mark Stephenson | University of Agricultural University, Bishkek, Adul Vangtal | Thai Holstein Friesian
Wisconsin, Wisconsin, USA Kyrgyzstan Association (T.H.A.), Rajburi, Thailand
Agnese Krievina, Andris Miglavs | Yana Muzychenko | Association
Institute of Agricultural Resources and of Milk Producers, Umam, Ukraine
Economics (AREI), Riga, Latvia
Muzaffar Yunusov | IFCN, Kiel, Germany,
Ghassan Antoine Sayegh | Middle East Uzbekistan
Michel de Haan | WUR, Wageningen
Paidamoyo Patience Chadoka | Zimbabwe Agrifood Publishers, Lebanon
Livestock Research, Wageningen, Vu Ngoc Quynh | Vietnam Dairy
The Netherlands Association of Dairy Farmers, Harare,
Deiva Mikelionyte | Lithuanian Association, Hanoi, Vietnam
Zimbabwe
Institute of Agrarian Economics,
Dairy Consultant Vilnius, Lithuania Abdulkarim Abdulmageed Amad |
Thamar University, Dhamar, Yemen
Blagica Sekovska | Veterinary
Faculty, Institute for Food, Skopje, Rob Jansen-van Vuuren,
Addmore Waniwa | Livestock
Macedonia
Dhiaeddine M‘Hamed | Dairy Expert, Consultant, Department of Livestock
Saliman, Tunisia & Veterinary Services, Zimbabwe
© IFCN Dairy Report 2019 4
To our partners IFCN Dairy Conferences 2nd IFCN Dairy Conference 2001 in Braunschweig, Germany 7th IFCN Dairy Conference 2006 in Szczecin, Poland 10th IFCN Dairy Conference 2009 in Tumba, Sweden 19th IFCN Dairy Conference 2018 in Cork, Ireland IFCN Supporter Conferences 5th IFCN Supporter Conference 2006 in Brussels, Belgium 10th IFCN Supporter Conference 2011 in Monastier Treviso, Italy 14th IFCN Supporter Conference 2015 in Minneapolis, USA 17th IFCN Supporter Conference 2018 in Parma, Italy 5 © IFCN Dairy Report 2019
To our partners
Dear IFCN Partners and friends,
This year, we proudly celebrate the 20 years anniversary of the IFCN.
Conceptualised by Torsten Hemme as a young PhD scholar in 1996, the idea of
benchmarking farms worldwide has flourished into a community of global dairy
experts, researchers, institutions and companies.
In these years IFCN has strived to create a better understanding of the dairy world
and has stood by its values of trust, truth and independence.
In 2019, dairy researchers from more than 100 countries and 141 agribusiness
companies and institutions are part of the network.
This feat has only been possible with your valuable cooperation and selfless
contribution. We at IFCN are overwhelmed and would like to thank you for your trust
and commitment. By exchanging data and sharing the generated knowledge, each
of you supports dairy development in your country. It is a pleasure to work with you.
We enter the third decade in joyful anticipation of what lies ahead. There will be more
challenges and changes in the dairy world which the IFCN will analyse and forecast.
Overcoming these challenges is a task that we can only master if we share our
knowledge, exchange ideas and cooperate with each other.
Without you, valued researchers, supporter partners and friends, the IFCN would
not be where it is today. With excitement, we are looking forward to the next 20 years
with you.
Thank you for being a vital part of IFCN.
With best regards,
The IFCN Team
© IFCN Dairy Report 2019 6
Dairy Report 2019 – Table of Contents
Serbia
Preface 2 Global monitoring of dairy economic indicators
20 Years of IFCN 8 1996 – 2018
IFCN Dairy Report – Development 2000 – 2019 10 2.1 Summary: Monitoring dairy economic indicators 55
Regional maps and the typical farms 11 2.2 Global trends in oil, milk and feed prices 1981 – 2019 57
About IFCN 12 2.3 National farm gate milk prices in 2018 in USD 58
IFCN Dairy Research Center and IFCN Board 13 2.4 Monitoring feed prices and milk: feed price ratio 1996 – 2018 59
20th IFCN Dairy Conference 2019 14 2.5 Monitoring milk prices 1996 – 2018 60
Results from the IFCN Dairy Conference 2019 15 2.6 Monthly milk prices transmission and farm economics 62
16th IFCN Supporter Conference 2018 16 2.7 IFCN Long-term Dairy Outlook 2019 64
Results from the IFCN Supporter Conference 2018 17
7th IFCN Regional Workshop 2018 18 3 Status and development of milk production
1th IFCN Data Workshop 2019 19 3.1 Summary: Dairy sector development in the past 20 years 68
IFCN Supporter Partenship and IFCN Data Products 20 3.2 Status and centres of milk production 2018 70
Introduction of Product 4.4 Short-term Outlook 21 3.3 Development of milk production 1998-2018 71
3.4 Milk surplus and deficit in 2018 72
1 Comparison of the typical farms 2018 3.5 Cow culling and land prices in selected countries 74
1.1 Summary – Farm comparison 2018 23 3.6 Farm Structure-Dairy farm numbers and IFCN Standard size
1.2 Milk supply curves 2018 24 classes 2018 75
1.3 Cost of milk production on average sized 3.7 Method explanation of the Country Page 2019 78
and larger farms 2018 25
1.4 Farm level time series analysis 2000 – 2019 Country Pages – Dairy sector and chain profiles
– Cost of milk production only 26 3.8 EU-28 79 3.31 Croatia 102
1.5 Description of the dairy farms analysed 28 3.9 Afghanistan 80 3.32 Cuba 103
1.6 Summary on economic results of the typical farms 30 3.10 Albania 81 3.33 Cyprus 104
1.7 Cost of milk production only 32 3.11 Algeria 82 3.34 Czech Republic 105
1.8 Total costs and returns of the dairy enterprise 33 3.12 Argentina 83 3.35 Denmark 106
1.9 Returns: Milk price, non-milk returns 3.13 Armenia 84 3.36 Dominican Republic 107
and decoupled payments 34 3.14 Australia 85 3.37 Ecuador 108
1.10 Dairy enterprise: Profits, return to labour 3.15 Austria 86 3.38 Egypt 109
and asset structure 35 3.16 Azerbaijan 87 3.39 Estonia 110
1.11 Description of direct subsidies and policies 36 3.17 Bangladesh 88 3.40 Ethiopia 111
1.12 Summary on cost components of the dairy enterprise 38 3.18 Belarus 89 3.41 Finland 112
1.13 Cost components of the dairy enterprise 40 3.19 Belgium 90 3.42 France 113
1.14 Cost component: Feed 41 3.20 Bhutan 91 3.43 The Gambia 114
1.15 Cost component: Labour 42 3.21 Bolivia 92 3.44 Georgia 115
1.16 Cost component: Land 43 3.22 Bosnia-Herzegovina 93 3.45 Germany 116
1.17 Cost component: Animal health and herd replacement 44 3.23 Brazil 94 3.46 Greece 117
1.18 Overview of all typical farms analysis – costs and returns 45 3.24 Bulgaria 95 3.47 Guatemala 118
1.19 New typical farms results – IFCN Farm Comparison 3.25 Cameroon 96 3.48 Honduras 119
Research Network 47 3.26 Canada 97 3.49 Hungary 120
1.20 Sustainability and resilience of typical farms 48 3.27 Chile 98 3.50 Iceland 121
1.21 Sustainability of selected farms 50 3.28 China 99 3.51 India 122
1.22 Resilience of selected farms 51 3.29 Colombia 100 3.52 Indonesia 123
3.30 Costa Rica 101 3.53 Iran 124
7 © IFCN Dairy Report 2019
Dairy Report 2019 – Table of Contents
Serbia
3.54 Ireland 125 3.98 Rwanda 169 4 Methods applied in IFCN Analyses
3.55 Israel 126 3.99 Saudi Arabia 170 4.1 The TIPICAL model and its capabilities 201
3.56 Italy 127 3.100 Senegal 171 4.2 IFCN Special Study: Robotic milking systems 202
3.57 Jamaica 128 3.101 Serbia 172 4.3 IFCN Special Study: Review of water footprint
3.58 Japan 129 3.102 Slovakia 173 methodology 203
3.59 Jordan 130 3.103 Slovenia 174 4.4 Standardisation used by IFCN 204
3.60 Kazakhstan 131 3.104 South Africa 175 4.5 Typical farm approach 205
3.61 Kenya 132 3.105 Spain 176 4.6 Details on farm economic analysis 206
3.62 Korea, Republic of 133 3.106 Sri Lanka 177
3.63 Kyrgyzstan 134 3.107 Sudan 178
Annex
3.64 Latvia 135 3.108 Sweden 179
A.1 IFCN Publications 212
3.65 Lebanon 136 3.109 Switzerland 180
A.2 Glossary 213
3.66 Lithuania 137 3.110 Taiwan 181
A.3 Typical farm approach and data quality assessment 214
3.67 Luxembourg 138 3.111 Tajikistan 182
A.4 Elevator stories of typical farms 215
3.68 Macedonia 139 3.112 Tanzania 183
A.5 Description of the typical dairy farms analysed 217
3.69 Madagascar 140 3.113 Thailand 184
A.6 Abbreviations 222
3.70 Malawi 141 3.114 Tunisia 185
A.7 Exchange rates 1996 – 2018 223
3.71 Malaysia 142 3.115 Turkey 186
A.8 Who is who 224
3.72 Malta 143 3.116 Turkmenistan 187
3.73 Mexico 144 3.117 Uganda 188
3.74 Moldova 145 3.118 Ukraine 189
3.75 Mongolia 146 3.119 United Kingdom 190
3.76 Morocco 147 3.120 Uruguay 191
3.77 Mozambique 148 3.121 USA 192
3.78 Myanmar 149 3.122 Uzbekistan 193
3.79 Namibia 150 3.123 Venezuela 194
3.80 Nepal 151 3.124 Vietnam 195
3.81 The Netherlands 152 3.125 Yemen 199
3.82 New Zealand 153 3.126 Zambia 197
3.83 Nicaragua 154 3.127 Zimbabwe 198
3.84 Nigeria 155
3.85 Norway 156
3.86 Oman 157
3.87 Pakistan 158
3.88 Panama 159
3.89 Paraguay 160
3.90 Peru 161
3.91 Philippines 162
3.92 Poland 163
3.93 Portugal 164
3.94 Puerto Rico 165
3.95 Qatar 166
3.96 Romania 167 Serbia
3.97 Russian Federation 168
© IFCN Dairy Report 2019 8
20 Years of IFCN
THE
IFCN TIMELINE
Born and brought up to a dairy farm in Northern Germany, Torsten Hemme showed a passionate interest
for dairy at an early age. He travelled internationally and had the opportunity to work on different kinds of
dairy farms. As his experience grew, so did his curiosity to understand more thoroughly the various dairy
farming systems which existed in different continents.
Thus the research question was born:
How to create a better understanding of milk production world-wide?
orld-wide?
2003
IFCN highlights cooper-
1999 ation with companies
on Dairy Report –
Torsten’s PhD study 6 Supporter companies.
finalised – method base
for IFCN.
2006
New Home: IFCN
2000 moves to Kiel.
1994 First IFCN Dairy confer-
ence organized and
Torsten started his PhD First IFCN Dairy Report
at Thünen Institute. In published with eight
his research work, he countries.
developed the TIPICAL
model which is now a
standard for dairy farm
economics. The idea of
a network of research-
ers was born to have an
ongoing benchmarking
of dairy farms.
9 © IFCN Dairy Report 2019
20 Years of IFCN
2019
2010 IFCN
AG
IFCN is a thriving
network of researchers
First strategy review from over 100 countries
in IFCN to create more as well as 141 company
transparency, develop and institutional partners.
a sustainable business
model and modify the
leadership.
2025
We help people in the
2014 dairy world with dairy data,
knowledge and inspiration
Second strategy to make better decisions.
review for the period of
2014 – 2019 to better
structure its coopera-
tion with researchers and
companies.
© IFCN Dairy Report 2019 IFCN Dairy Report – Developments 2000 – 2019
Which countries are participating in the IFCN Dairy Report activities in 2019?
54 countries analysed in the Farm Comparison
62+ countries participated in the Country Pages
Number of countries included Number of countries included Number of farm types analysed
in farm comparison in country profile analysis
60 140 200
54 176
120 180
120
50
160
100 140
40
120
80
30 100
60
80
20
40 60
40
10
20
20
0 0 0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Germany
1 © IFCN Dairy Report 2019Regional maps and the typical farms
North America
Michigan (MI)
Canada 1200
85, 147
Idaho (ID) Minnesota (MN) Europe and Middle East
1200, 2600 206
California (CA) Wisconsin(WI)
1100 80, 500 Germany
Finland
30 S, 80 S, 110 S, 151 N, Poland
New Mexico (NM) Norway 28, 77, 138
289 N, 700 E, 1200 E 16 E, 25, 52 N,
2272 22, 41 65 S, 75, 221 N
Latvia
Denmark
UK 34,140, 218
190, 350
160 NW,
Mexico New York (NY) 259 SW NL
23 JA 65, 450, 2350 101, 249
33 JA Lithuania Russia
1000 TO 485, 862 230W, 850 NW,
2000 TO Ireland 850 NW++, 850NW--
76, 148 Belarus
1024, 1474
Belgium
40N, 95N Hungary Ukraine Kazakhstan
159, 850 300, 1000 Armenia 260, 350,
Luxembourg
South America 69, 176 Serbia 4,50 420
2, 10, 84
Turkey
Spain 15, 100
84 NW, 80 CN, Iran
Switzerland
97 S, 180 NW 90, 120,
France 15 bio, 20, 64 Czech 276, 458,
Colombia 38 MC, Italy Republic 1150IS
6, 100 DP, 105 66 W, 100 C 154, Austria 85, 293, 787
229 18-bio,
Brazil 68 Israel
34 S, 56 S 118, 474
Peru 111 S, 350 S
7, 17 180 SE, 320 SE
57 S
Chile Argentina
63 180, 400,
112 280, 600 South East Asia and Oceania
447
426++ Uruguay
129 Assam China North
367 2, 6 289 N, 2250 N
Uttar Pradesh
2, 4
Haryana
Inner Mongolia Japan
2, 20, 70 CF,
60 IM Beijing 41, 79
300 CF 320 BE,
1710 BE
Africa
Tunisia Pakistan India
2, 4, 5, 12, 290 6, 25, 100
Egypt Gujarat
5 B, 5, 10 2, 8 Bangladesh
Karnataka 2, 14
Algeria Odisha
6, 18 2, 6
2, 5
Uganda
1, 3, 13
Indonesia
3MG, 3MG++, Australia
Nigeria Kenya 10MG, 10MG++
5, 205 279
2, 8 393
Cameroon
25, 50 New Zealand
408, 1027
Zimbabwe
99, 440
Legend: Numbers indicate the number of cows in the typical farms.
++ = future farm, B = Buffalo, BE = Beijing, bio = Organic, C = Central,
CF = Commercial Farm, CN = Central North, DP = Dual Purpose, E = East, JA = Jalisco,
South Africa MC = Massif Central, MG=Malang, N = North, NW = North West, S = South, SE = South East,
230, 650, 800
SW = South West, TO = Torréon, W = West
© IFCN Dairy Report 2019 1About IFCN
The dairy world today
Today the dairy world serves over 7 billion consumers and provides IFCN Vision
livelihoods for approximately 1 billion people living on dairy farms. We are the leading, global knowledge organisation
The key challenges for the dairy stakeholders lie in its complexity and in milk production, milk prices and related dairy
the high rate of change in a globalised world. economic topics.
About IFCN
IFCN is a global dairy research network. By addressing challenges
in the dairy world, IFCN can contribute to a more resilient and more IFCN Mission
sustainable future for all of us. We create a better understanding of the dairy
world by providing comparable data, knowledge
What does IFCN do? and inspiration.
IFCN provides globally comparable dairy data, outstanding know-
ledge and inspiration to stretch one’s imagination. Its core com-
petence lies in the field of milk production, milk prices and related
economic topics.
Dairy data: We provide globally comparable dairy
economic data and forecasts.
Knowledge: We create knowledge out of our data, models
and analysis. Our core competence is in the field of milk
production, milk prices and related economic topics.
Inspiration: We inspire people in the dairy world to build
a better future. We inspire passionate people to develop a
successful career in the dairy world.
What does IFCN offer stakeholders in the dairy chain
How does IFCN operate? 1. Farmers: IFCN gives you a voice to reach other players in the
dairy world. Up to date global milk and feed price trends and
IFCN creates a better understanding of the global dairy world. The
helpful IFCN Publications are presented on the IFCN Website.
IFCN – International Farm Comparison Network – started in 2000
Farm comparison work allows you to judge the competitive po-
with basic analytics. Step by step the knowledge bases are being
sition of milk production in your region.
deepened and widened every year.
2. Researchers and advisors: IFCN makes you part of the leading
Knowledge is created via a network of dairy researchers from over
global dairy network. IFCN helps to serve your dairy stakehol-
100 countries. The data and knowledge are managed and analysed
ders better and to develop your professional career in the dairy
by the IFCN Dairy Research Centre staff.
world while strengthening your dairy economics profile in your
The IFCN Economic Models and standards ensure comparability country.
between countries and provide a global picture.
3. Companies: IFCN provides dairy related companies such as
More than 141 dairy related companies and organisations support milk processors and farm input companies, a comprehensive
the IFCN and use the knowledge to solve challenges in the dairy and continuously updated picture of the dairy world. We help
world better. you develop your business.
IFCN has innovative ways to share this knowledge with its partners 4. Global and national organisations involved in policy-ma-
and with the dairy world as a whole. The IFCN Events are a key ele- king for agriculture, environment and food supply: IFCN
ment in developing the network spirit. provides holistic dairy knowledge to be used for your policy de-
cisions and conferences.
IFCN Values: Trust – Independence – Truth
5. Consumers: IFCN illustrates milk-production, its fascinating di-
Trust among the IFCN Partners is vital for open sharing, cooperation
versity and value creation in rural areas.
and a network that really works. The IFCN is independent from third
parties and is committed to truth, science and reliability of results. 6. Colleagues in the IFCN Centre: You are invited to build a life
Truth means that IFCN shows the dairy world as it is and as accu- time career in the IFCN Centre to operate globally and enjoy a
rately as measurements allow. IFCN describes realities and reports stable local life. You are also welcome to use IFCN as the ideal
without having any hidden agendas. stepping stone for further developments in the dairy world.
For further information please contact: info@ifcndairy.org
1 © IFCN Dairy Report 2019IFCN Dairy Research Center and IFCN Board
Organisational setup
IFCN stands for International Farm Comparison Network and is a global dairy research network. The IFCN has a Dairy Research Center (DRC)
with 23 employees coordinating the network process and running dairy research activities.
Managing
Director Network Management
Torsten Saleh Prashant Muzaffar Annika Zarif Paloma Deniz Birte
Hemme Amiralai Tripathi Yunusov Jarrens Omid Wulf - Bock Gencoglu Petersen
Dairy Analysis Team
Łukasz Katrin Mateusz Marieke Oybek Amit Philipp Dorothee Maria Anna-Maria
Wyrzykowski Reincke Węgrzynowski Fischer Kalandarov Saha Goetz Bölling Schmeer Woehl
Office Management
Karin Sandra Franziska
Wesseling Bornhöft Rekow
IFCN Dairy Research Center IFCN Board
The IFCN Board has the mandate to support the IFCN management in the strategic development and guarantee transparency in the operation
to the members of the network.
The IFCN Board is composed of the following members: Anders Fagerberg (chairman), Hans Jörn (nominated by the supporters), Ernesto Reyes
(nominated by the researchers), Uwe Latacz-Lohmann (Kiel University), Olaf Rosenbaum (legal and fiscal expertise) and Torsten Hemme (Mana-
ging Director IFCN).
Anders Ernesto Hans Jörn Uwe Latacz- Olaf Torsten
Fagerberg Reyes Morelon Lohmann Rosenbaum Hemme
Chairman
© IFCN Dairy Report 2019 120th IFCN Dairy Conference in Berlin, Germany, June 15 – 19, 2019
Changing dairy world: 2000 – 2020 – 2040, with a focus on special types of milk
The 20th IFCN Dairy Conference 2019 in Berlin, Germany, brought together 85 dairy economists and experts
representing 48 countries. The conference was proudly hosted by DMK and sponsored by Hochland.
Monday, June 17 Tuesday, June 18 Wednesday, June 19
DAIRY WORLD STATUS SPECIAL TYPES OF MILK DAIRY OUTLOOK
20 years IFCN From the farmer to the consumer Dairy outlook
• History of IFCN • Different types of milk and milk products • Dairy development’s impact on poverty
• IFCN Researchers’ Network 2020/2025 • Challenges and opportunities for processors reduction (E. Reyes, GDP)
(P. Hildebrandt, DMK) • 20 years backwards, 20 years forward for
Global picture on dairy markets
• Current and future trends in dairy consump- the dairy industry (R. Erhard, Nestlé)
• Flashback: 20 years of dairy market –
tion (A. Capkovicova, European Commission) • IFCN Long-term Dairy Outlook 2040
(un)foreseen drivers and trends
• Panel: Perception of milk from the farmer • IFCN Short-term Dairy Outlook 2020
• 20 years from country perspective – game
to the consumer • IFCN Way forward 2020/2025
changers of the dairy market (IFCN Partners)
Milk = Milk? Summing up and closing
Global picture on dairy farms
• Trends on “special” milk in different
• 20 years of dairy farming – global dairy
countries (IFCN Partners)
production systems and farm structure
• Dairy production systems around the world Workshop
– key drivers for farm development (IFCN • Complexity and opportunities of special
Partners) types of milk
Network evening Exhibition of posters and milk packages
IFCN 20th Anniversary celebration
1 © IFCN Dairy Report 2019Results from IFCN Dairy Conference
Complexity and opportunities of special types of milk: Opportunities of special milk
Results from the 20th IFCN Dairy Conference 2019 As the next step, participants brainstormed on country specific success
stories where value has been generated with special types of milk. Here
Complexity and opportunities of special milk are some examples:
Consumer demand for special types of milk is rising. Therefore, the 20th
• Alpro (BE+DE), ne moloko (RU), Oatly: plant-based milk
IFCN Dairy Conference has put a key focus on different types of milk and
• Fairlife (US): ultra-filtered milk
their challenges, complexities and opportunities. During intense days of
• Parag (IN): milk quality and branding and delivery
discussion between IFCN Researchers and representatives from internati-
• Hemme Milch (DE): regional milk
onal companies, it became clear that trust and transparency are important
• The A2 milk company (NZ): A2 milk
for promoting dairy. IFCN thanks host DMK and sponsor Hochland.
• Ornua, Kerrygold (IE): grazing and sustainability
Definition of special milk
IFCN defines special milk as value-added cow milk and milk alternatives.
Special types of milk are clustered in three main categories:
• Milk from different sources (type of animals, plant-based milk, synthetic
milk, etc.)
• Milk generated with different farming practices (organic, GMO-free, etc.)
• Different ways of processing and packaging (composition of liquid milk)
Animal based dairy products will stay most popular
Annually IFCN attempts to define the status quo of current develop-
ments by means of an opinion survey and, in this way, catch a glimpse
into the future of dairy farming. The 2019 results of the opinion survey
(n = 50 different countries) show that animal based dairy products will
outlive alternative kinds of „milk“. KEY CONCLUSIONS
Participants furthermore brainstormed on country specific success
stories to draw key conclusions. IFCN Research Partners agreed that:
• Special milk products remain a small market portion: Sales of
plant-based drinks are growing fast both in value and volume but so
far, they remain a small market portion. In 2018, they represented a
4% share on cow milk based dairy product volume sales.
• Differentiation creates value for the early adopters: Opportuni-
ties in special milk production exist. Differentiation of milk adds and
creates additional value.
• Organic and local milk are appreciated by consumers as special
milk: Organic milk is well accepted by consumers. Also, local milk plays
an important role. Vertical integration is an opportunity especially for
small-scale farmers to sell milk directly to consumers (“from grass to
finished milk”). Consumers want to support their neighbourhood and
Workshop on special milk
know the source of the products. Partners state that consumers’ de-
The conference participants, divided into working groups, identified milks
mand is driven by the wish for protecting the environment and animals.
that consumers in their country see at the moment as most exciting be-
• Emotional stories touch consumers more than facts: Plant based
sides conventional milk. According to the partners’ opinions, the following
products are coupled with a specific way of life like sports, freedom,
special milk types are currently mostly demanded worldwide (ranked):
animal welfare. It is important to promote local and vertical produ-
1. Organic milk ced milk which consumers can link to products coming from known
source and production standards. Trust and transparency are very
2. Plant based “milk” (soy, almond, rice, oat, etc.)
important – however, emotional stories often win over facts. In the
3. Regional / my farm milk long-term, it is important to promote real value-added products
with impactful campaigns and simple messages.
4. Milk from other animals (sheep, goat, buffalo, etc.)
5. Grazing milk
Exhibition of milk packages
th
Source: HEMME T (2019): Outcome Paper from the 20 IFCN Dairy Conference. To obtain insights into the different packaging used worldwide, participants
https://ifcndairy.org/press/ brought milk packages from their countries which were presented in an exhibition.
© IFCN Dairy Report 2019 116th IFCN Supporter Conference in Parma, Italy, September 11 – 13, 2018
How will big data change dairy farming and the supply chain in the future?
The 16th IFCN Supporter Conference was held in Parma, Italia. More than
120 participants from 88 dairy related companies attended the conference
which was hosted by Cargill. Allflex Livestock Intelligence and Dairy
Data Warehouse acted as gold sponsors. Also, Growsafe and Connecterra
participated with their support to make this event a great success.
Tuesday, September 11 Wednesday, September 12 Thursday, September 13
THE DAIRY WORLD IN 2018 BIG DATA IN MILK PRODUCTION VISION TALKS
Pre Conference: Big data in milk production Vision talks
• Technology disruption and industry • Think wider: The IFCN Dairy Long-term
Understanding industry‘s needs
adoption – Finisterre Ventures Outlook 2030
towards IFCN
• Digital dairies and the future of protein - • Beyond digital technologies: getting ready
• IFCN – The company and their products
Cainthus Technologies for the digital transformation of the dairy
• IFCN Monthly Real Time Farm Economics –
• Unleash the power of BIG dairy data – industry – Cargill
new development of tools
Dairy Data Warehouse
Panel Session: Processors perspective
Official start of the conference • Everyone should be ruminating on this data
towards 2030
• Welcome to the 16th IFCN Supporter Conference – Allflex
• Condensing complexity – what really mat-
• A New Data Paradigm – Growsafe
The dairy world today ters for your company in the future
• The dairy world in 2018 Panel Session: Innovators for disruptive • How to win the future with big data – what
• IFCN Monthly Real Time Data – What are the technologies to consider most!
latest developments?
Workshop Session: Truth and myth of big Reporting session
• IFCN short-term Dairy Outlook 2019
data in milk production
• Farm technology past, present and future Summing up and closing
• Working groups: which aspects of milk pro- See, feel and smell big data on an Italian
duction will be affected most by big data? 150 – cow farm
Networking evening Networking evening
1 © IFCN Dairy Report 2019Results from the IFCN Supporter Conference
What makes a dairy region successful? Results from the • Progress on farm technology could attract successors and bring new
IFCN Supporter Conference 2018 people into the sector.
Big data in agriculture describes large sets of data that are generated on • Predictability of milk production on farm level will improve the farmers´
farms. Big data is becoming more important due to the increasing use of operations and planning.
emerging technologies that create data, such as sensors and cameras. • A shift from a herd approach to an individual cow treatment will improve
However, simply storing the data is not enough. As seen in different con- animal welfare.
ference presentations, data becomes useful when it is analysed computa- • A holistic system at farm level will drive efficiency improvements and
tionally to reveal patterns, trends, and associations, especially related to financial optimization.
behaviour and interactions. All this data, combined with advanced data
platforms, can create new value for cows, farmers, processors and con- Key take away messages
sumers, by providing insights that can enhance animal productivity and • Big data is the future: Big data combined with advanced informati-
comfort while also driving incremental value and transparency. on platforms will create value along the whole dairy chain, affecting
cows, farmers, companies and consumers.
• Transform digitally or die: Technology will speed up the consolida-
tion process by increasing the gap between smaller farms and farms
that adopt technology.
• Transparency is a driver: Big data increases transparency and is one
of the major drivers for productivity gains. It shows potential to relo-
cate profits towards farmers and input providers.
• Paving the way for sustainability: Big data will lead to value creati-
The workshops – ”Impact of big data on dairy farming“ and ”Truth and on, productivity gains and animal welfare improvement by optimized
myth of big data“ inspired the participants to think beyond the current management and operations resulting in great steps towards sustai-
status of the dairy sector. The future impact possibilities of big data on nability.
dairy farming was discussed in the workshop. Moreover, ideas and opi- • Gain in efficiency shows huge potential: Big data will increase the
nions were shared on how the dairy sector could change in the next de- efficiency at farm level by monitoring processes and optimizing ope-
cade. It was agreed that the whole supply chain needs to be prepared rations.
for the future and that new technologies should be found with an open • Consumer trust can be gained: Traceability and transparency of in-
mindset and a clear strategy. formation is the key to convince consumers of the high value within
the dairy sector and its products.
Opinions on big data and dairy: • Big data brings potential for decision making: Using new tech-
• The most limiting factor of big data is the lack of acceptance by famers nologies, farmers will be enabled to base their decision on facts and
as well as non-compatible technology. information retrieved from big data rather than gut feelings.
• Data gathered through technology will be owned by farmers.
• Efficiency gains by big data in the dairy sector will be around 20% or
higher.
• Biggest benefit of big data in the dairy sector is being able to make
objective and transparent decisions.
• Europe and North America will be the regions most positively affected
by the use of big data.
• Dairy farming will not mainly be run by Artificial Intelligence before
2050
• The leadership role in bringing big data forward will be taken by tech-
companies.
• The leadership role should be taken from established companies and
leading farms.
Opportunities faced by companies and farms:
The future impact possibilities of big data on dairy farming was discussed
in the workshop. Moreover, ideas and opinions were shared on how the
dairy sector could change in the next decade. It was agreed that the
whole supply chain needs to be prepared for the future and that new KEY ACTIONS
technologies should be found with an open mind
• Transparency supports cost reduction. Benchmarking and decision ma- Actions to be taken by companies in the perspectives:
king for all stakeholders. • Move mindsets.
• Technologisation in agriculture lags behind. Lessons should be learnt • From silo to system.
from other sectors. • Build platforms.
• Big data can contribute to gain consumer trust by proving the social • Investments need to be made.
impact of dairy. • Providing objective evidence by big data.
• Transparency will drive sustainability and give the social license and • Define the data language in your company.
acceptance to producers.
© IFCN Dairy Report 2019 17th IFCN Regional Workshop in Pune, India, November 28 – 29, 2018
Milk Quality and exports potential of India
This IFCN Regional Workshop took place in Pune, Maha- in India has not been done. The working groups also
rashtra; more than 80 participants, representing various came up with the following recommendations:
aspects of the dairy value chain, took part of the discus-
sions and the group working sessions. The focus of the 1. Defining nationwide unified milk quality stan-
®
workshop was the Milk Quality and exports potential of dards with which all the stakeholders of the dairy
India. This topic was intensively discussed by the parti- value chain agree as well as aligning sets of defini-
cipants. The workshop provided a suitable platform for tions on milk quality and minimum standards.
participants to exchange experiences and discuss vari-
2. Incentive program to encourage production and
ous approaches for obtaining better milk quality and
transportation of quality milk.
achieving exports potential in India. Presentations by
IFCN researchers and agribusiness-related companies 3. Rejection: Development and implementation of in-
introduced the topic. A panel of representatives of dif- dustrial norms for rejection of poor quality/adultera-
ferent aspects of the dairy value chains was also very ted milk and penalization for deliberate inclusion of
well received. additives.
4. Control: Setting up minimum acceptance rate of
Working in groups, the participants highlighted the key
drug residues, aflatoxins and detergents.
drivers for the milk quality issues in India, including ha-
ving no nationwide definition of milk quality along the 5. Implementation: The dairy sector stakeholder
supply chain ie. at the farm gate, factory gate and at the should agree on the formulation, implementation
point of sale/consumer. Neither governments nor the and adherence of the milk quality improvement plan
processors have defined the minimum industry stan- with a certain flexibility during an adjustment period.
dards for milk procurement. Another problem is India´s
fragmented production structure which is a major cau- IFCN also recommended that India should have a milk
se of quality deterioration. quality crisis management plan. The workshop was
proudly hosted by Schreiber Dynamix and sponsored
The workshop also highlighted the fact that a real root by Kemin, Prabhat, Neogen and Promethean Power
cause analysis for the prevalent milk quality problems Systems.
1 © IFCN Dairy Report 20191st IFCN Data Analysis Workshop in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, April 17, 2019
Dairy economics is more than just the price of milk
This first IFCN Data Analysis Workshop took place in Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
It was attended by 12 participants from different dairy related companies, institutions and institutes.
Wednesday, April 17
IFCN DATA ANALYSIS WORKSHOP
Introduction to dairy economics
• Introduction: workshop overview Feedback: ”Great interaction, Feedback: ”Time series of farm level
• What does data analysis mean for IFCN? engaged team“. data and price transmission was
• Drivers of the world milk price inspirational“.
Networking lunch
• How IFCN data can answer research questions
Feedback: ”Explanation of ECM, Feedback: ”Farm labour costs
• Dairy farm sustainability & resilience
SCM, World milk price, Typical farms“. explanation was interesting“.
• Dairy farm economics knowledge versus market knowledge
• Future of IFCN data
© IFCN Dairy Report 2019 IFCN Supporter Partnership and IFCN Data Products
P – IFCN Supporter Partnership Packages
Today the dairy world serves over 7 billion consumers and provides live- Main benefits of the partnership:
lihoods for approximately 1 billion people living on dairy farms. The
• Global holistic picture • Better analysis: no wasting
key challenges for the dairy stakeholders lie in its complexity and the
time
high rate of change in a globalized world. More than 120 dairy rela- • Networking with dairy chain
ted companies are contributing to IFCN which is a global dairy related companies • World class dairy business
research network that helps to better understand the dairy world by intelligence
• Learning and capacity building
providing globally comparable dairy economic data and even forecasts
since 2000. • Better data: comparable,
globally & real time
IFCN Partnership Packages | Your benefit Basic Premium Ultimate
IFCN Dairy Report
Coverage of 120+ countries on macro and micro dairy economic
indicators (5 hard & pdf copies)
IFCN Insight Slides
Annual holistic picture of the dairy world
IFCN Monthly Newsletter
Latest happening on the sector on your finger tips
Logo positioning
Be visible on the IFCN Dairy Report, IFCN World Dairy Map
and on the IFCN Website
IFCN Hotline
E-Mail E-Mail, Phone E-Mail, Phone
Remarks and first suggestions for urgent questions
Global Dairy Think Tank
Be part of annual IFCN Supporter Conference with more One seat Two seats Three seats
than 120 agribusiness companies
Annual 101
Exclusive IFCN Partner company feedback meeting on –
existing data usage and future needs
IFCN Milk Production Outlook Webinar
Join quarterly webinar on latest milk supply trends & drivers
–
IFCN Special Events
Be part of such an event – more information to be –
shared – envisaged locations are in Europe & India
Global Dairy Sector Database
Get data from county pages in IFCN Dairy Report (key variables)
Access to IFCN Data Products Data purchase Data purchase Access to all
Get access to the Standard IFCN Data Delivery Package (Excel formats) possible possible data services
6,000 € 10,000 € + 30,000 €
2 © IFCN Dairy Report 2019IFCN Supporter Partnership and IFCN Data Products
IFCN Milk Production Outlook Webinar Main befits of the product
The webinar is an innovative service providing milk supply projections for • Monitor dairy market drivers in real-time for growth of
the next 12 months. It offers results of the IFCN milk supply outlook model your sales numbers
along with possible world milk price developments based on Futures (CME, • Enhance your risk management by better evaluating
EEX, NZX). Forecast of milk production at steady prices and evaluation of milk price trends
the trends of the world milk price for the next few months makes the dairy • Design suitable short-term actions with a better understanding
market trajectories more comprehensible. This excellent service permits of the national markets
the user to have an overview of the current dairy market situation and to
also track the underlying factors for more than 60 countries.
Change in milk production in % YoY IFCN World Milk Price Indicator based on Future Prices
(ONLY Butter + SMP)
% YoY change (world excl IN&PK) % YoY change (world)
6% 44
5% IFCN World Milk Price EU Market - EEX
42
4% NZ Market - NZX USA Market - CME
3% 40
2% 38
1%
0% 36
-1% 34
-2%
-3% 32
-4% 30
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Key variables Technical Details
• World milk production forecast • Farm economics status & forecast Format: PDF & audio recorded file Duration: 30 – 45 minutes
• World milk and feed price forecast • Maps & charts with key Delivery: Quarterly Price: Free for Premium & Ultimate
• Next 12 months drivers of supply informaton Coverage: 64 countries IFCN Partners
Change in Germany milk production Milk prices in Germany in EUR / Milk contents on monthly data
Monthly Real Time Data incl. farm economics on monthly basis 100 kg SCM in Germany
% change to previous year National milk price monthly fat value in %
This real time product delivers data on milk production, milk & feed prices 7%
Average annual % change
45
IFCN Combined World Milk Price Indicator
4.5%
mothly protein value in %
and describes the current situation and on-going development on dairy 5%
40 4.3%
markets to optimise short-term operational business processes on a global 35 4.1%
3% 30
and on a country level. A summary with the key message and IFCN Ana- 25
3.9%
3.7%
lysis are send with this data product. Data provide real-time situation of 1%
20
3.5%
the dairy market with price analysis, making anticipating short-term shifts -1% 15
3.3%
10
and changes in the dairy markets easier. This year additional information -3%
3.1%
5
on fat and protein production has also been added to the data. Sample -5% 0 2.9%
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jan-18
Fig 1 highlights Germany milk price and implication on milk production
and milk contents.
Brazil milk suplly and demand Brazil milk and feed prices Brazil milk production in 2018
Dairy Sector Data & Long-term Outlook IFCN milk production (all milk)
Dairy consumption National milk price
in 1,000 tons
IFCN milk delivered to processor (all milk) National feed price
The comprehensive IFCN product supports long-term strategic business 50 160
45
decisions providing comparable country level data. It contains the parts: 40
140
120
time line data since 1996, regional data and IFCN Long-term Dairy Outlook 35
100
2040. Database reflects how the overall dairy situation looks like in the 30
25 80
country of analysis, helping in assessing the real market potentials. Stan- 20
60
9,000
dardised and quality approved country data increase your efficiency in 15
40
4,000
1,000
10
business analysis and business development by reducing the data mining 20
5
time. Sample Fig 2 shows milk production until 2018 and Outlook 2040 0 0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
2028
2032
2036
2040
1996
1998
with regional milk production for Brazil.
Cost of milk production only Milk Yield Return to labor
Dairy Farm Comparison Data Quota costs (rent and opportunity costs) USD /100 kg milk (SCM)
Opportunity costs (excl. quota) USD /100 kg milk (SCM)
Holstein Friesian cows
Other cows / buffaloes Return to labour
The farm sector data facilitates strategic decision making by presenting a 70
Cost from P&L account - non-milk returns USD /100 kg milk (SCM)
Milk price USD /100 kg milk (SCM)
14
HF cross and/or several breeds on farm
Milk yield (natural content)
30
Average wages on the farm
Return to labour (including decoupled subsidies)
unique tool for benchmarking dairy farms world-wide. There are new key 65
60 12 25
figures embedded in the product; cost components of the dairy enterpri- 55
50 10
20
se and actual farm economics. These figures help to get an even better 45
40 8
15
insight in actual farm economics in the analysed countries. With the data, 35
30 6
10
gain a deeper understanding of cost competitiveness and KPIs of dairy 25
20 4
5
0
production such as efficiency, labour and land costs, capital, yield and pri- 15
10 2
-5
ces. Fig 4 compares farms in Germany, USA and New Zealand on cost of 5
0 0 -10
NZ-397
DE-147N
NZ-397
NZ-397
US-500WI
US-500WI
DE-147N
DE-147N
US-500WI
DE-30S
DE-30S
DE-30S
milk production and return to labour.
© IFCN Dairy Report 2019 23.45 Germany
Łukasz Wyrzykowski
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| Dairy sector and chain profile © IFCN Dairy Report 2019Dairy researchers representing 120 countries
Institutional partners
International
Dairy
Federation
Agribusiness partners
Milk processing
Feed and feed additives
Milking and barn equipment Health and hygiene
WORLD
T O TA L D A I R Y M A N A G E M E N T
Farm machinery Generics for animal & plants
Milk testing, measure, transport Milk processing and packaging technologies
Finance institutions Agriculture technology companies
Consulting and others Dairy farming companies
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