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THE
PEACE &
SECURITY
MONITOR
Challenges in The Mediterranean region
Issue 3
peacehumanity.org
September 2021
PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR All rights reserved © Platform for Peace and Humanity, 2021 Editors Ambre Karoutsos Filip Šandor Kelly Demjanick Rastislav Šutek Authors Filip Šandor Ambre Karoutsos Pamela Dávila Anisha Maulida Fatima Umar
PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
Challenges in The Mediterranean region
Issue 3 September 2021
Table of content
ANALYSIS
The Abraham Accords: Implications in Algerian-Moroccan Relations
and the Ongoing Conflict in Western Sahara
Pamela Dávila
Tunisian Democracy is in Turmoil: What’s Next after a Self-coup?
Anisha Maulida
The Dots of Discord from Past till Present: An Overview of Algeria and
Morocco’s Relations
Fatima Umar
BRIEF SITUATION REPORT
Lebanon
Ambre Karoutsos
Egypt
Pamela Dávila
Cyprus
Ambre Karoutsos & Filip Šandor
Greece & Turkey
Filip Šandor
PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
Challenges in The Mediterranean region
Issue 3 September 2021
Foreword
Instability takes many forms: from tensions between Morocco and Algeria to the
struggles of women to make their voice heard in peace processes, challenges
are numerous in the Mediterranean region. Long-time issues remains, such as
tensions in Palestine, while new concerns arise, such as the Tunisian political
crisis.
In the region as a whole, geopolitical, environmental and political events shape
what actions and peace agreements will become. How these will create new
dynamics is what this issue will focus on.
PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
Timeline
18/07/2021
Algeria recalls ambassador to Morocco
after Morocco's envoy to the UN speaks
in support for self-determination of the
Kabylie region 20/07/2021
Ersin Tatar, President of Northern Cyprus,
announced the partial lifting of the
25/07/2021 restrictions on Varosha.
The Tunisian president, Kais Saied
suspended the parliament
Early August 2021
Wildfires in Turkey and Greece
10/08/2021
Israeli FM Yair Lapid makes first visit to
Morocco since normalization of relations
in late 2020
13/08/2021
ISIL group killed eight Egyptian troops in
14/08/2021 Sinai
Sudan signed several agreements with
Turkey as Sadanś Sovereign Council
chairman concluded a 2-day visit
19/08/2021
Wildfires in Algeria. Government suspects
terrorist groups backed by Morocco and
24/08/2021 Israel
Algeria cuts diplomatic ties with
Morocco.
28/08/2021
Arab League and Organization of Islamic
Cooperation call for dialogue between
01/09/2021 Algeria and Morocco
Virtual meeting of Energy Ministers of
Cyprus and Israel 08/09/2021
The second round of exploratory talks
between Turkey and Egypt were held in
09/09/2021 Ankara
A new government Lebanon was formed .
26/09/2021
Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt held
military drills in Greece
PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
The Abraham Accords: Implications in Algerian-Moroccan
Relations and the Ongoing Conflict in Western Sahara
Pamela Dávila
In December 2020, the Kingdom of Morocco escalating tensions between Morocco and the
joined the Abraham Accords, a United States- Algeria-backed Polisario Front, and since then, a
brokered normalization agreement under which series of chain events have unfolded in the south
they regularized their diplomatic relations with of the Mediterranean, reaching a peak on August
Israel. Throughout history, Arab countries have 24, when Algeria decided to cut diplomatic ties
chosen to stand by Palestine in its territorial with Morocco.
dispute with Israel, leaving the latter surrounded
by a group of unwelcoming neighbors in the In this context, this article will explore the
Middle East. Nevertheless, the political dynamics geopolitical effects of the Abraham Accords in
of the region shifted last year for Morocco, when Moroccan-Algerian relations and its impact in
the US decided to formally recognize its the development of the conflict in Western
sovereignty over the Western Sahara in Sahara. The first section will offer a brief
exchange for joining the Abraham Accords. explanation of the agreement known as the
Abraham Accords, as well as, the series of
Formerly a Spanish colony, and home to the events that ensued between Morocco, Algeria
Sahrawi people, the area known as Western and the Polisario Front in the past few months.
Sahara has been the center of a territorial The second section will delve into current
controversy for over 40 years. The Kingdom of Moroccan-Algerian relations, in order to
Morocco has claimed historical sovereignty over understand how their power dynamics are
the resource rich land, while the Polisario Front, shaping the region and how their latest actions
the sole representative of the Sahrawi people, answer to very specific political goals for both
has demanded the complete independence of parties. The third section will analyze Moroccan-
the territory. After a series of violent clashes in Algerian relations in the context of the ongoing
the 1970s, a considerable number of Sahrawi process in Western Sahara, stressing the
refugees set camp in neighboring Algeria, who importance of this conflict in the overall security
not only offered its assistance, but also declared of the Mediterranean. The article will conclude
their support for the Polisario Front’s cause. This with a few considerations in relation to regional
statement would later fuel the existing tensions geopolitics to emphasize the reasons why the
between Morocco and Algeria. Abraham Accords should be a vital point of
focus to consider when analyzing security
In 1991, the United Nations decided to take action matters in the Mediterranean in the near future.
by enacting a cease-fire between the Polisario
Front and Moroccan military forces. The UN also What are the Abraham Accords?
created a peacekeeping operation in Western
Sahara, whose mandate is oriented towards The Abraham Accords comprehend a series of
conducting a referendum on the status of the agreements for the normalisation of relations
territory; nonetheless, said referendum has not between certain Arab countries and Israel,
yet taken place, which has in turn created brokered by the United States (during Donald
discontent on both sides. The signing of the Trump’s presidency) as a means to promote
Abraham Accords came in the midst of dialogue, cooperation and peace, especially in
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Mediterranean region to do so. While the move
was unexpected (as with the previously
mentioned states), the main point of concern in
terms of security is the strategy used by the
United States: The recognition of the sovereignty
of the Kingdom of Morocco over the entire
Western Sahara territory. The joint declaration
not only formally establishes this point, but also
stresses the commitment of the United States
towards the development of the territory and
promises the opening of a consular office in
Dakhla, as a way of creating new opportunities
for the region. [4]
the Middle East. This event appears as a Since the agreement between Israel and
historical move in the region, given that no Arab Morocco was signed, a series of events
country had regularized relations with Israel since developed in the south of the Mediterranean,
1978, when Egyptian president Anwar el-Sadat involving Morocco, Algeria and the
agreed upon peace between both countries in representatives of Western Sahara. Soon after
the context of the Camp David Accords. Ever brokering the deal, the US not only took its first
since, Arab states have rebuffed the steps in setting up the aforementioned
establishment of formal ties with Israel, in part consulate, but also discussed moving ahead
due to a joint solidarity with the State of Palestine with a $1bn arms sale to Morocco, an offer that
and its decades-long territorial conflict with would contribute to the Kingdom’s security.
Israel. Considering that in late 2020 the Polisario Front
ended the 1991 ceasefire due to delays in the
The signing of said accords started in September consultation process to solve the conflict in
2020, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Western Sahara, an arms sale (and the support
the Kingdom of Bahrain being the first to of the US) would give Morocco a significant
normalize relations with Israel within a framework advantage in the region. Nevertheless, this did
of joint efforts towards peace and security in the not stop the Polisario Front from launching a
region, while committing to the US’ “Strategic military operation in Morocco-controlled
Agenda for the Middle East.” [1] [2] A third party Guerguerat border in late January 2021.
to join the dialogs, was the Republic of Sudan.
Tensions between all parties remained relatively
While initially hesitant to regularise its ties with
unchanged until April of 2021, when Polisario Front
Israel, Sudan finally agreed with the condition
leader Brahim Ghali entered Spain to receive
that it was removed from the US list of State
medical treatment for COVID-19, leading to
Sponsors of Terrorism (which has affected the
Morocco’s retaliation by allowing thousands of
country’s development for several years), and
citizens to cross the border to Ceuta, contributing
clearing the path for accessing World Bank
to the already existing migratory crisis in the
funding. [3]
Mediterranean. The situation became more
serious when the Polisario leader was allowed to
The final member to enter the negotiations was
leave Spain and continue his treatment in Algiers,
the Kingdom of Morocco, the central case study
where he received a visit from the Algerian
for this article. Morocco signed the joint
president Abdelmadjid Tebboune in early June.
declaration with Israel on 10 December 2020,
Considering the clear support Algeria has shown
making it the first Arab country in the
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the Polisario Front in their fight for independence, Western Sahara, making it more complex than it
the decision to host Ghali for his recovery only already is. Both parties are crucial in the
contributed to the deterioration of Moroccan- development of this peace process, and the
Algerian relations. Moreover, a new escalation involvement of third parties like the US and Israel
surfaced in mid-July, when a Moroccan envoy to have not made negotiations any easier.
the UN spoke in support of self-determination of
the Kabylia region, which prompted Algeria to Moroccan-Algerian ‘new old’ struggles
recall its ambassador to Morocco back home.
Tensions between these two North African
The growing disputes did not, however, hinder the countries have fluctuated between high and low
processes established in the Abraham Accords. points throughout history, with no signs for them
In early August, Israeli Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid, to establish amicable relations: Therefore, the
made his first visit to Morocco, where three deals severing of diplomatic ties announced a couple
related to bilateral cooperation between Israel of weeks ago, does not represent a critical action
and Morocco — including air service, culture, that might trigger a more severe state in bilateral
sports, and youth, and political consultation relations. Nevertheless, it is important to note that
matters — were signed. Additionally, FM Lapid both Algeria and Morocco have historically
inaugurated the official Israel liaison office in challenged each other in order to assert more
Rabat, which was part of the resolutions dominance in the region, and that competition
established on the Abraham Accords. has had a considerable impact in the
development of local conflicts. The conflict in
A few days after the visit, wildfires spread Western Sahara represents a dispute that has
through Algeria, an event the president’s office been indirectly used, by both countries, to justify
linked to two local terrorist groups. Algeria also their actions against each other, as was possible
announced that said groups were backed by to observe in the statements made by Morocco’s
Morocco and Israel in an attempt to destabilize envoy to the UN and Algeria’s subsequent
Algeria and secure its new alliance with Israel decision to recall its ambassador to Morocco.
and the US. [5] Tensions reached their peak in
late August, when Algeria officially cut diplomatic
ties with Morocco, leading the international
community to call for dialogue between both
parties. While both the Arab League and the
Organization of Islamic Cooperation have asked
for talks of reconciliation between Morocco and
Algeria, no steps have been taken by either side
to improve the situation.
As it has been possible to observe, the recent
increase in tensions in Moroccan-Algerian
relations is the result of the accumulation of
months of actions taken by key stakeholders that
have activated old rivalries and suspicions. While
it is not possible to claim that the Abraham
Accords were the main trigger for the state both
parties have reached, they have definitely
contributed to the escalation of hostilities.
Moreover, the current situation has also
impacted the peace process for the conflict in
Western Sahara Map
Source: MINURSO
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In this context, it is vital to understand how inflation and the devaluation of the dinar, but
Moroccan-Algerian interactions have developed also with food scarcity in some areas of the
during this year, and what steps both countries country, most of which is imported. [8] Moreover,
have taken in order to assert their leadership and earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund
dominance in the region. Morocco has probably (IMF) warned that Algeria could face a critical
been the country with the most assertive situation due to its budget deficit and decline in
geopolitical strategy vis-à-vis In this context, it is its oil reserves and gas exports. [9] The recent
vital to understand how Moroccan-Algerian escalation in tensions with Morocco (especially
interactions have developed during this year, the decision to sever diplomatic ties) might
and what steps both countries have taken in come as an attempt to diffuse local tensions
order to assert their leadership and dominance towards an ‘external enemy’ while the Algerian
in the region. Morocco has probably been the government finds a way to stabilize its national
country with the most assertive geopolitical struggles. Nevertheless, this strategy cannot be
strategy vis-à-vis Algeria: It not only regained its sustained in the long term.
seat in the African Union four years ago, but has
also secured the support of the US in relation to While Morocco has chosen to side with the
one of its long term territorial goals, and gained United States (and Israel), Algeria could be
a new strategic partnership with Israel. The looking to strengthen similar relations with
Abraham Accords do not only link Morocco to external partners, like Russia, a country that has
the previously mentioned country, but sets a already pursued major arms deals with Algeria
precedent for collaboration with other parties and Egypt. In relation to arms transfers, Algeria
involved in the agreements, all of them, remains the third largest importer of armament
coincidentally, strong oil producing countries. from Moscow [10], and last year signed a nearly
$2 billion purchase of 14 Sukhoi Su-57 fighter
Moreover, after its impasse with Spain and aircrafts [11], only months before the United
Algeria in April, Morocco has strived to offer a States started discussing an arms sale with?
more conciliatory approach with its neighbor. In Morocco.
his Throne Day speech in late July, King
Mohammed VI called for the necessary It is worth noting that Algerian-Russian relations
“development of bilateral relations [with Algeria] have not gone beyond the arms transfer realm
based on trust, dialogue and good in the last few years, with Algiers even engaging
neighborliness” [6]; the King also offered Algeria in close ties with Ukraine in 2019, a move that
assistance in fighting the wildfires that spread was not well-seen by Moscow. Nevertheless, their
throughout the country, a proposal that was military ties have remained strong since the Cold
ignored by Algerian president Tebboune, War era [12]. While Algeria has not yet become a
according to Moroccan media outlets [7]. The key power for Russian influence in the south of
ensuing accusations of Morocco’s involvement in the Mediterranean, it is not entirely out of the
supporting the suspected terrorist groups (who picture that, given the current geopolitical
are said to have started the wildfires) therefore, context of the Abraham Accords, the Algerian
clashed with Rabat’s conciliatory discourse, and government could consider getting closer to
could jeopardize Algeria’s goals in the region, other partners in order to reinforce its
especially considering that they have not offered assertiveness vis-à-vis Morocco.
concise proof for this accusation yet.
There have indeed been key political shifts in the
In this sense, Algeria could be facing a region in the past few months that have
disadvantage in the region, in relation to contributed to exacerbated tensions between
Morocco. The current socioeconomic context in the two countries, especially in organizations like
Algeria has not been easy to manage for the the African Union. Both Morocco and Algeria
government: Not only did they have to deal with have been working arduously in order to secure
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support from other AU members and to bolster became less vocal about their support, but have
their own political agendas in the region; also indirectly sided with Morocco through their
however, Morocco seems to be the one who has decision to establish consular offices in Western
carried out the most effective strategy to attain Sahara territory [17]. The recent opening of an
one of its main geopolitical goals: its recognition American consulate in Dakhla — agreed upon in
of sovereignty over Western Sahara. Before the Abraham Accords — has been the latest
Morocco’s return to the AU, Algeria had managed Moroccan political win, which has shifted the
to establish vital alliances with Nigeria and South balance of power for Algeria.
Africa, which allowed it to create the position of
AU special envoy for Western Sahara, assigning The never-ending conflict in Western Sahara
its representative, and thus securing its agenda
not only in the AU, but also within the United While the issues surrounding the resolution of the
Nations [13]. conflict in Western Sahara are not the central
part of the Abraham Accords, it is clear that the
In this context, Morocco sought to recover its new Moroccan-Israeli-American partnership
assertiveness in the region by tackling the same could have a considerable impact on the future
key partners Algeria had gained, and bringing developments of this particular peace process.
them to their side. This, in turn, shifted the original The agreements have exacerbated existing
approach of the AU in regards to Western Sahara tensions between Morocco and Algeria, and this
–aligned towards Algerian goals — into a more could be problematic for Western Sahara, for a
neutral position that benefitted Morocco in the multitude of reasons that will be discussed in this
long term. One of these steps included section.
collaborating with Nigeria for the creation of a
joint gas pipeline project in 2016, which would Since the end of Spanish colonial rule in 1963,
tighten its economic bonds with Europe and Western Sahara became part of the United
expand the Nigerian market even more [14]. The Nations’ list of non-self-governing territories.
project proved beneficial for Morocco: Nigeria, Since then, surrounding countries have claimed
once a solid supporter of the Polisario Front, sovereignty over this particular Since the end of
gradually shifted its discourse towards a more Spanish colonial rule in 1963, Western Sahara
conciliatory and impartial one, supporting the became part of the United Nations’ list of non-
political solution offered by the UN [15] and self-governing territories. Since then, surrounding
distancing itself from the conflict in Western countries have claimed sovereignty over this
Sahara. particular area, including the Kingdom of
Morocco, who is also the most vocal of them all.
The last African Union summit, carried out in The self-proclaimed Sahrawi Democratic Arab
February 2021, provided further evidence of the Republic (SDAR), led by the Polisario Front, was
change in political dynamics in the region. Algeria created in 1976 but remains a de facto state
was not selected to participate in the whose recognition status fluctuates around the
organization’s councils or committees, while world, especially in Africa. Despite this uncertain
countries like Chad and the Democratic Republic status, the SDAR does not hold a weak position,
of the Congo — who could potentially back and is even part of the list of African Union
Moroccan interests — were elected as head of member states since 1982 [18], which does give
the AU commission and rotating president, them a more formal recognition in the political
respectively [16]. These events add to the list of dynamics of the region.
Morocco’s diplomatic achievements carried out
in the last couple of years, which have bolstered The greater problem with the status of the
its position in relation to the conflict in Western conflict in Western Sahara—and the subsequent
Sahara. Not only long-standing supporters of the potential recognition of the SADR—is that the
Polisario Front — like Nigeria and Zambia — process has taken more time than expected to
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be resolved by the parties involved. In 1991, the 2020 have only added to the list of issues that
United Nations Mission for the Referendum in prevent both parties from reaching a consensus,
Western Sahara (MINURSO) was established, not and ultimately puts a strain on the population of
only to ensure a ceasefire between the Kingdom Western Sahara.
of Morocco and the Polisario Front, but also to
provide the necessary tools to carry out a The reasons for these two countries' continued
referendum “for the people of Western Sahara to involvement in the development of the conflict
choose between independence and integration has been largely discussed, but it can be
with Morocco” [19]. After 30 years, no referendum reduced to a simple geopolitical logic: the desire
has taken place, and there have been several to establish regional hegemony. Algeria has
disagreements between both parties — including historically supported the rights of the Sahrawi
the eligibility to vote, and the acceptance of the people, partly because of old Cold War
UN special envoy —, which has only delayed dynamics, partly because, should the SADR
reaching a resolution. obtain its independence, it would become a key
economic and political partner for Algeria. Not
only does it offer a gateway to the Atlantic, but it
is an area with “abundant reserves of phosphate,
lucrative fish resources, and possibly, offshore oil”
[21], all of which could contribute to the
improvement of Algerian fluctuating economic
situation. Moreover, the SADR’s potential
independence, with the support of Algeria, would
signify a political win vis-à-vis Morocco, and
might bolster Algeria’s position in regional
political organizations like the AU, which has been
declining over the years.
Morocco’s intentions do not differ much from
those of its neighbor. Establishing formal
sovereignty — recognized by the international
community — over Western Sahara would not
only become a political triumph for Morocco, but
would also help with the development of strategic
projects the government in Rabat already has in
mind for the disputed territory. A unified and
stable Morocco represents an attractive zone of
investment for external partners like China, who
has already begun talks with Rabat for a billion
Morocco has taken advantage of this situation, as dollar deal establishing manufacturing, and
stated earlier, by using a strong diplomatic railroad and commerce projects [19], which
strategy that has secured key partners to claim would consolidate the political and economic
its sovereignty over the territory in the long term. influence Morocco has built in the region over the
The Polisario Front, on the other hand, has past few years. Considering the aforementioned
continued siding with the Algerian government for facts, it is important to analyze the implications
leverage and protection, which has increased the signing of the Abraham Accords could have,
tensions between the latter and the Kingdom of in the long term, for this particular conflict, and
Morocco over the years. The chain of events that why it could signify yet another setback for
has deployed since the break of the ceasefire MINURSO. It is true that American support of
and the signing of the Abraham Accords in late Morocco in this specific issue is unlikely to change
9PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
the current sentiment among the international arrangements with Rabat. A more militarized
community in regards to Western Sahara; the UN Morocco, could raise alarms in both Western
and the EU, in particular, will continue pushing for Sahara and Algeria, who could see this move as
a political solution to avoid direct conflict, and no a threat to their own security, and choose to
level of US backing will alter that in the short term. either increase their arsenals somehow (Russia
Moreover, American recognition has no legal could play an important role here) or engage in
effect over previous UN resolutions which have small scale attacks. The Polisario Front has
already established the way in which the conflict already opted for the latter strategy, and while
in Western Sahara should be conducted. the clashes in Morocco-controlled posts along
Western Sahara have not had a massive impact,
Nevertheless, the US decision does have the the consistent escalation in tensions between
potential to hinder the peace process, for the both sides could have serious results if there are
simple reason that it sets a precedent from one no mechanisms for compromise.
of the leaders of the West. In the context of the
Abraham Accords, as states’ politics and Conflict fueled military violence could also
economies become more interconnected, there contribute to further insecurity in the region.
are higher chances for partners in the agreement Considering that different insurgent groups have
to follow American leadership. In this sense, Israel, taken roots in neighboring countries, increased
Bahrain, UAE and Sudan could play an important clashes between the involved parties could
role in setting the balance of power in North deteriorate socioeconomic and political stability,
Africa. Dynamics in the different UN bodies could especially in Western Sahara and Algeria. This, in
also be affected. For instance, if a crisis arises turn, would only worsen the migratory situation
among the parties involved in the following between Africa and Europe, and threaten human
months, the US could be more likely to block security while creating even more tensions
motions that threaten Morocco’s sovereignty and among states. Therefore, working towards a
their new partnership. quicker and more conciliatory approach to solve
the conflict in Western Sahara should matter to
In reality, one of the reasons why President Joe the countries in the Mediterranean.
Biden found it difficult to reverse Trump’s decision
in regards to Western Sahara is the fact that it Final remarks
could pose a risk to Moroccan commitment with
Israel, and discourage other potential partners. The Abraham Accords have represented a
The US has made its first steps in integrating historic diplomatic win for the US in the sense that
Israel in the Middle East (and possibly the Arab it allowed its long-term partner in the Middle East,
world), an achievement they will not give up on Israel, to begin regularising its relations with other
easily [22]. Arab countries in the region. However, and
especially in the case of Morocco, the signing of
A final consideration in this context is the the agreement came in the midst of an already
importance of the conflict in the larger tense situation with the Polisario Front and the
geopolitical dynamics of North Africa, which can stagnant process in Western Sahara. During 2021,
trickle down to other countries around the a series of chain events have climaxed with the
Mediterranean. Morocco’s alignment with Israel severing of diplomatic ties between Morocco and
and the US means one thing: Larger military Algeria, a situation that could decrease the
power. Even when it is not part of the agreement possibilities for a political resolution of the conflict
signed among the three parties, discussions in Western Sahara, and increase insecurity in the
about arms deals have already taken place region.
between Morocco and the US, which could set a
precedent for Israel engaging in similar The US’ decision to publicly support Moroccan
sovereignty over the disputed territory, while not
10PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
legally binding, does set a precedent and has [6] Morocco World News. (2021). Full Text of King Mohammed VI's
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11PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
[18] African Union. (n.d.). Member states. [online] Available at:
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[Accessed September 6, 2021]
12PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
Tunisian Democracy is in Turmoil: What’s Next after a Self-
coup?
Anisha Maulida
A decade after the Tunisian revolution, Tunisian he is invoking Article 80 of the 2014 constitution
democracy faces its biggest challenge as which gives him this authority, it’s clear to the
President Kais Saied sacked the government, people that his actions are a threat to the
froze parliamentary activities on 25 July 2021, country’s democracy.
and assumed executive power. His actions have
caused major protests across Tunisia and has Contrarily, there are some that argue in favour of
been labelled as a “coup” by the parliament [1]. Saied, saying his actions do not amount to an
Saied, on the other hand, insisted that he acted attempt to overthrow the chief executive, as
to protect the constitution and to save the Saied has repeated himself. Instead, some
country [2]. consider his actions to be more aligned with the
concept of “self-coup.” A self-coup or an
It is apparent that the global pandemic, COVID- autogolpe occurs when the President closes the
19, has contributed to the Tunisian economic courts and the legislature, suspends the
downfall [3]. Moreover, Tunisia has had to deal constitution, and rules by decree until a
with other crises that have pushed Tunisia’s referendum and new legislative elections are
democracy to the brink with the corruption held to approve border executive powers [7].
scandal of the former Prime Minister Elyes This action is seen as a temporary departure
Fakhfakh, a high unemployment rate, national from democratic rule in terms of free and fair
debt, the accusation of police repression, and election in democracy [7]. However, this type of
the tensions between the President and Prime act could threaten the deliberative quality of
Minister Mechichi that have constantly escalated democracy as it broadens the scope for
[1] [3] [4] [5]. executive abuses of power, weakens the checks
and balances system, and leaves the
This article will discuss in further detail the government unaccountable to the public and
political turmoil in Tunisia and how it affects their immune to criticism [7].
democracy.
A coup or not?
Kais Saied, the Tunisian President who was
democratically elected by the people, ousted the
government and suspended the parliament
leaving Tunisia in political turmoil. Additionally,
President Saied has yet to appoint a new Prime
Minister, and it seems that he does not have a
clear political road map. Adding to the concerns
that President Saied’s actions demonstrate a
coup, he has declared that he will rule by decree
and has extended the suspension until further
notice [6]. Although Saied insisted that his
actions are not indicative of a coup, as he claims
13PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
Thus, with this concept in mind, one could argue eitPeople or thirty of the members thereof shall
that what happened in Tunisia is a self-coup be entitled to apply to the Constitutional Court
which is an absolute threat to Tunisian with a view to verifying whether or not the
democracy. The question that naturally arises is: circumstances remain exceptional [9]. The Court
will Tunisia return to a dictatorship? Rather than shall rule upon and publicly issue its decision
thinking this way, there are a series of scenarios within a period not exceeding fifteen days.
that may arise, and this article will discuss this in Moreover, the President promised to limit his
more detail in the next subsection. suspension to 30 days and now he has exceeded
the deadline [2]. It has been two months of
Violation of the 2014 constitution silence from the President and there has been no
reform plans.
The President has put forth a rational reason for
his action and has framed them in accordance According to President Saied’s adviser, Saied
with Article 80 of the constitution which relates to attempted to amend the constitution. He issued
a state of emergency– in this case it is in Decision 117, which changes the preeminence of
response to economic and political crises. Let us the Constitution: Constitutional laws will be
take a closer look at Article 80 of the 2014 maintained only if they do not contravene with
constitution [8] [9]. Presidential measures [12] [13]. Such
amendments would grant the President an
Article 80 addresses the Presidential powers, extraordinary power and essentially abolish the
specifically the actions the President of the political system [12]. However, the parliament and
Republic may take during an “event of imminent political parties such as Ennahda and Tunisia’s
danger threatening the nation’s institutions or the Labour Party opposed this decision which is
security or independence of the country.” [9]. This rooted [14] in Article 144 [9]:
became the foundation for Saied to justify his
action. However, under Article 80 it states that “The Constitution shall be amended upon the
such measures are only ‘necessitated by approval of two-thirds of the members of the
exceptional circumstances’ and should be done Assembly of the Representatives of the People.
after consultation with the Head of Government, After an amendment by two-thirds of the
the Speaker of the Assembly of the members of the Assembly has been approved,
Representatives of the People and after informing the President may submit the amendment to
the President of the Constitutional Court [9]. That referendum in which case it will be adopted if it
brings us to the question of whether President receives an absolute majority of votes cast.”
Saied has followed the proper protocol?
There are two points that need to be highlighted
According to President Saied there has been a here: the first is, Article 80 is being used by the
prior consultation with Mechichi and the Tunisian President as a justification for his actions
Parliament Speaker, Rached Ghannouchi, and and is without legitimate grounds.The second is
they have agreed that other decisions will be that the constitution itself does not allow the
taken once social peace returns to the country President to suspend the government or amend
[10]. However, the parliament has dismissed this the constitution.
claim and instead believes Saied’s action to be
nothing but a “full-fledge coup” against the The protest against the President
constitution and democracy of the country [11].
This is the first major protest since the Tunisian
In addition, Article 80 states that after 30 days of President seized power two months ago, and it
entry into force- these measures, the Speaker of could be seen as the beginning of a new series of
the Assembly of the Representatives of the protests across Tunisia. Thousands of people
14PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
rallied in the centre of Tunis chanting “shut down country, even more so than the police or judiciary
the coup”, “save our democracy”, and “we want to [17]. Second, violation against civilians would likely
return to legitimacy” [15]. The Tunisians believe happen if Saied is allowed to engage the military
that what happened on 25 July took them back in his efforts to save the country and the people
to 50 years of autocracy [15]. [17].
Meanwhile, pro-Saied argue that the people want A threat to Tunisian democracy: What’s
to dissolve the parliament [15]. They believe in next?
Saied’s actions and chant “Saied is good” as they
viewed his actions as an opportunity to purge the What has happened in Tunisia today is obviously
corrupt elite and have accused the protesters of threatening the future of Tunisian democracy as
defending and protecting the corrupt elite [16]. previously explained in this article. Moreover, the
trauma of having an autocratic regime still
The army’s new role haunts the people of Tunisia. Therefore, the
protesters who went to the street against the
A lot of anxiety arises from the Tunisians if the President’s monopolization are those who are
army starts to enter politics. During the protest doubtful of his actions.
event in July, the army secured the parliament
building and caused concern [17]. This is of To answer the previous question whether Tunisia
particular concern because the Tunisian army will return to a dictatorship, the answer depends
has been apolitical for decades and under a on their political democratic culture. Tunisian
democratic government, the army should stay democracy is already fragile, as it is still in a
out of politics and focus on their role in defending transitional stage hence, the democratic political
the nation [18]. culture in Tunisia has not been fully internalized.
When the culture of political democracy has not
Today, Tunisia under President Saied’s been fully internalized, the possibility of the
administration is starting to wrap itself around the President using his power to turn democracy into
army [18]. The relationship between the President an autocracy will likely occur. However, if it is
and the army has started to become intertwined internalized then, the chances of reverting back to
as Saied has been giving political speeches at normal will likely to happen, as domestic
military sites and promoting military leaders in an conditions, both economic and political, are
unstructured and political way, to civilian stable.
positions [17] [18]. Moreover, Prime Minister
Mechichi has also involved the military in a As of August, Saied has appointed several new
pandemic response, increasing further the army’s ministers, including interior minister and health
involvement in civilian matters [19]. Further minister. Hence, it is arguable that the President
involvement could foster fear of the potential use will appoint a new prime minister, sooner or later.
of military courts to prosecute political opponents The Tunisians need to be patient and keep
like in 2014/15 [17]. According to the Brooking monitoring the moves of the President whether
Institution Report (2019), Tunisian military courts his actions are still in accordance with the
have been used in some cases that targeted a constitution or not.
number of civilians, including political opponents
and bloggers in the past [20]. Conclusion
If the army gets involved in Tunisian politics, it Although the Tunisian President was using Article
would first undermine the trust of the Tunisian 80 as a justification for calling a “state of
people in their army because the army is seen as emergency” his actions contradict democratic
the most reliable and trusted institution in the tradition. However the chances of Tunisia
15PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
returning to being an autocratic state are very [12] Ali, Z. A., 2021. Tunisia’s president just gave himself
unprecedented powers. He says he’ll rule by decree. [Online]
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president-just-gave-himself-unprecedented-powers-he-says-
their voice against the government hence, there hell-rule-by-decree/
is a likelihood to have another revolution and to
[13] Yousra Ounes (2021). Ennahda rejects attempts to change
topple down the President.
Tunisia constitution. Anadolu Agency. [Online] Available at:
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[14] Anonymous, 2021. Tunisia's labour union and Ennahda party
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timeline of key events. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/tunisia-coup-labour-union-
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/26/sacking-of-tunisian- ennahda-oppose-saied-suspending-constitution
parliament-latest-step-along-bumpy-road-since
[15] Aljazeera, 2021. Hundreds of Tunisians protest President Saied’s
[2] Simon Speakman Cordall (2021). A coup or not? Tunisian ‘power grab’. [Online]
activists grapple with president’s power grab. The Guardian. Available at:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/05/a-coup-or- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/26/hundreds-gather-in-
not-tunisian-activists-grapple-with-presidents-powergrab tunisia-to-oppose-president-saieds-power-grab [Accessed 28
August 2021].
[3] Oussama Boudhrioua (2021). The Roots of Tunisia’s Current
Political Crisis. Fikra Forum. [16] Aljazeera, 2021. Dueling Tunisian protests erupt over president’s
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protests-erupt-over-presidents-power-grab [Accessed 28 August
[4] Claire Parker (2021). Ben Ali’s Ghost Still Haunts Tunisia. FOreign 2021].
Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/04/tunisia-protests-
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matter/ play?. [Online]
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sa%C3%AFed-and-hichem-mechichi-amenaza-la-democracia-
tunecina%C2%A0 [18] Hamdi, O., 2021. Keep the Tunisian Military to Military Matters.
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16PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
The Dots of Discord from Past till Present: An Overview of
Algeria and Morocco’s Relations
Fatima Umar
Algeria and Morocco’s diplomatic relations led to Algeria and Morocco, was Algeria’s unilateral
an escalation in tensions between the two rival decision to close their border with Morocco after
states. Before digging deeper into the historical alleged accusations over Algeria’s involvement in
conflict, it is important to note that both Algeria a terrorist attack in South-western Marrakesh in
and Morocco have been colonized, but their 1994 and the restrictions on visas for Algerians.
major tensions grew after Algeria’s
independence from France in 1963, which was Another reason for their fraught relationship
followed by the Sand War between the two stems back to the Cold War era, where their
bordering states. The primary reason for it was difference in political ideology. Alger is still
the claims of Moroccan authorities of Algerian cautious of the possible plans of Rabat
lands: Tindouf and Bechar. While Rabat justified it regarding the creation of ‘Greater Morocco’ and
as a response to provocative actions by Algeria,it is still struggling for regional influence on various
was just the beginning of the bitter relationship fronts. While the aforementioned causes are
between the two nations which is worsening. historic in nature, the contemporary causes, on
the surface, are influenced by numerous reasons
involving different regional and global actors.
One of these is the US recognition of the territorial
bone of contention between Morocco and
Algeria: the Moroccan control of Western Sahara.
This was a major blow to the decades-long
Algerian struggle of keeping Morocco’s authority
of Western Sahara isolated and illegitimate in the
eyes of the international community. The loss of
the Polisario Front as a proxy for Algeria
increased resentment and hostilities. This
inclination of the US towards Morocco was not a
gift, rather it was a bargain in which Morocco
would then recognize and establish friendly
After reviewing the reasons for this conflict, only relations with Israel, an ally of America. This
then does a clearer and more rationale-based added another reason for Algeria to stand up
reasoning illuminates the recent rise in hostilities front in front of Morocco and criticize them for
between the two states. The core cause of the giving up the Palestinian cause. Algeria also
Algeria-Morocco conflict is a territorial dispute claims Morocco’s involvement in Israeli spyware
over border demarcation, which, as previously software, Pegasus further heightens the discord.
mentioned, dates back to the independence of
Algeria. What adds fuel to this fire is the proxy The historic causes coupled with recent events
dimension: Algeria supports the Polisario Front, has enlarged the conflict between Morocco and
which is a political-military organization working Algeria. For example, in July of this year,
against Moroccan control over Western Sahara. Morocco’s Ambassador to the UN, Omar Hilale,
Morocco, on the other hand, supports the Kabyle emphasized the independence of the Kabyle
people. A major blow to the relationship between
17PEACE & SECURITY MONITOR
people, this was followed by Algeria’s protest over [4] (19 September 2021), New diplomatic tension between Algeria
and Morocco, Africannews,
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