TWO THOUSAND SEVENTEEN - THE MCGRATH REPORT - PUBLISHED SPRING 2016 - MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS

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TWO THOUSAND SEVENTEEN - THE MCGRATH REPORT - PUBLISHED SPRING 2016 - MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS
The McGrath Report

   Two
Thousand
Seventeen

    Published Spring 2016
TWO THOUSAND SEVENTEEN - THE MCGRATH REPORT - PUBLISHED SPRING 2016 - MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS
A Message From John McGrath                2

           TRENDS

           Factors Driving Price Growth               4

           The Asia Story                             8

           Off-Market Selling of Prestige Property   12

           Are We Staying Put Longer?                16

           Real Estate of the Future                 20

           CITIES

           Sydney                                    24

           Melbourne                                 28

           Brisbane & Surrounds                      32

           Canberra                                  36

Contents                                              1
A Message From
                                                                John McGrath

Another compelling year in Australian real estate is        But my honest view is that Sydney and Melbourne
behind us so what do we take out of it? In our annual       are the 'New York’s of Australia' and will be in huge
report we try to understand the movements in the            demand as far into the distance as I can possibly see.
market and pinpoint the trends that seem to be having       In fact with several billion people on the doorstep of
the greatest impact on us now and into the future.          this lucky country, many with a huge appetite to enjoy
                                                            the lifestyle that we have, it would be far easier to
The last few years have been a fascinating time for         mount a sensible argument that both the big cities will
Australian residential property with a number of            look incredibly cheap as we look back in a decade or
trends emerging and indeed driving different markets        so. That is assuming that we manage our growth well
in different ways. This year’s report will delve into a     and find a way to sensibly welcome immigrants and
number of these in an attempt to share our insights         overseas investors into the country.
including why we’re staying in our homes longer, the rise
in off-market prestige sales and how technology is and      Which brings me to what I believe is one of the most
will continue to change the way we transact real estate.    short sighted initiatives that I’ve seen in my 35 years
                                                            of real estate. The decision for the three east coast
The question that people ask me most frequently is          State Governments to impose hefty taxes on overseas
“What's the market doing?” To which of course there         buyers seems one of the strangest I’ve seen. This tax
is no accurate answer other than to refine the question     could only have been imposed for one of several
with the response: “Which market?”                          flawed reasons in my opinion. Was it to allow local
                                                            buyers to get into the market? Or was it simply to
Australia is no longer one market but large cities like     raise more revenue?
Sydney and Melbourne are indeed multiple markets
within their own city boundaries. We have seen              Let me emphasise the overall percentage of property in
over the last few years Sydney and Melbourne                Australia sold to foreign buyers is minimal. The reason
decouple from the rest of the country. This is not a        Sydney and Melbourne prices have risen has little if
phenomenon that concerns nor surprises me. Indeed           anything to do with overseas buyers. It’s a supply issue.
if you follow the trends of most countries around
the globe, the largest city or cities often become          And let’s not forget that we all came from somewhere
separated from the rest of the market by the weight         else. Our multi-cultural society is one of our greatest
of demand. And within these cities we continue to see       assets. Why send a message to the world that
an increasing “Manhattan Effect” where not only have        they’re not welcome to invest alongside us in this
their lifestyles become more and more in demand             great country?
but locating as close as possible to the proverbial
action within these cities has become a sub-trend.          I hope you enjoy this year’s report.
As commuting becomes increasingly challenging the
desire to be close to the business and arts districts is
a direction that’s here to stay.                            John McGrath

As a result of this people ask me if I think Sydney and
Melbourne are overvalued off the recent cycle uplift.

McGrath Report 2017                                         2                                                           A Message From John McGrath   3
Trends
                                                        Figures compiled by CoreLogic RP Data reveal the          In Melbourne, St Kilda East house prices rose 35.4%
                                                        suburbs with the greatest house and apartment price       due to improved amenities, a changing residential
                                                        growth over the 12 months to June 30, 2016*.              profile, gentrification and increased demand from
                                                                                                                  buyers priced out of Albert Park, Middle Park
                                                        A key element in the price growth of many suburbs         and Elwood.
                                                        this year has been a lack of stock, which has
                                                        intensified competition.                                  Carlisle Street in Balaclava, a small suburb in the
                                                                                                                  St Kilda East postcode, has been transformed over
                                                        In Sydney, Westmead recorded the strongest house          the past decade into a buzzy café village where locals
                                                        price growth for FY2016 at 33.2%. We attribute this to    love to hang out.
                                                        the $900 million Westmead Hospital redevelopment
                                                        project currently underway and a growing resident         There are shops, major supermarkets, schools, the
                                                        population of well-paid health service professionals.     recently upgraded train station and easy access to the
The East Coast capital city suburbs with the highest                                                              city and St Kilda foreshore. There are beautiful period
                                                        Westmead is also home to an expanding campus of the       houses and apartments protected by heritage order.
price growth prove that lifestyle options, strong or    University of Western Sydney and is situated right next   It’s a great place to live and gaining appeal as a
                                                        door to Parramatta, Sydney’s second CBD.                  destination suburb.
improving infrastructure, good schools, local jobs
or proximity to employment hubs, public transport       Fairlight recorded the strongest apartment price growth
                                                        at a staggering 46%. A shortage of stock combined with
                                                                                                                  Brighton had the second highest apartment price
                                                                                                                  growth at 27.3%, reflecting demand from downsizers
and a vibrant ‘village’ atmosphere are key factors in   a large difference between house and apartment prices     who have lived and loved the location for 30 years and
                                                        and the ripple effect from its beachside neighbour,       are now selling their family homes and moving into
driving prices skyward.                                 Manly all contributed to this phenomenal price rise.      apartments and townhouses in the same area.

Factors                                                 Top 5 House Growth

                                                        1   St Kilda East   (VIC)   35.4%

Driving
                                                        2   Westmead        (NSW) 33.2%
                                                        3   Ormond          (VIC)   31.6%
                                                        4   Fairfield       (VIC)   30.3%
                                                        5   Londonderry     (NSW) 29.9%

Price
Growth
McGrath Report 2017              4                                                                                Factors Driving Price Growth                              5
In Brisbane, house price growth was greatest in
Identifying Price Growth            Robertson at 25.6%; while beachside Woody Point on                          Top 5 Suburbs for Price Growth by Capital City
Hot Spots                           the Redcliffe peninsula achieved the best apartment
                                    price growth at 24.2%.                                                      Houses                                                                  Apartments

Macro Factors                       Wilston recorded the third best house price growth at                       SUBURB                 MEDIAN PRICE                12 MONTH CHANGE IN   SUBURB                MEDIAN PRICE   12 MONTH CHANGE IN
                                    20.3% over FY2016. Wilston is a highly regarded area                                                                           MEDIAN PRICE                                              MEDIAN PRICE
•	Strong population growth         with a great café village, excellent schools and                            NSW                                                                     NSW

•	Good local employment or         spectacular homes – many with city views due to the                         Westmead               $1,225,000                  33.2%                Fairlight             $1,285,000     46.0%
   access to job hubs               suburb’s elevated position.                                                 Londonderry            $1,150,000                  29.9%                Ultimo                $735,000       40.7%

                                                                                                                Millers Point          $2,475,000                  29.5%                Chipping Norton       $582,000       38.6%
•	Gentrification of housing
   stock                            Camp Hill enjoyed the second best apartment price                           Canterbury             $1,247,500                  28.9%                Kirribilli            $1,195,000     34.0%
                                    growth at 18.9% due to strong demand from first                             Croydon Park           $1,380,000                  28.0%                Waverton              $1,150,000     27.8%
•	Growing household incomes
                                    home buyers.                                                                QLD                                                                     QLD
• 	Lifestyle amenities – cafes,                                                                                Robertson              $1,005,000                  25.6%                Woody Point           $410,000       24.2%
   shops, entertainment and
                                    In the nation’s capital, it’s all about O’Connor, which had                 Darra                  $440,000                    23.9%                Camp Hill             $541,000       18.9%
   recreation
                                    the highest price growth for both houses at 21.5% and                       Wilston                $1,007,500                  20.3%                Scarborough           $475,000       14.1%
•	Schools and catchment            apartments at 15.3% in FY2016.                                              Chelmer                $1,127,500                  19.0%                Newstead              $595,000       11.7%
   zones
                                                                                                                Banyo                  $521,750                    17.2%                Teneriffe             $629,500       11.6%
•	Presence of big retail brands    O’Connor is close to everything and has a great café                        VIC                                                                     VIC

•	P ublic transport and            and shopping precinct. Families love the tree-lined                         St Kilda East          $1,422,000                  35.4%                Hampton East          $662,000       27.4%

   walkability                      streets and good sized blocks and it is in the catchment                    Ormond                 $1,500,000                  31.6%                Brighton              $910,000       27.3%
                                    areas for Turner School and Lyneham Primary School.                         Fairfield              $1,205,000                  30.3%                Braybrook             $454,250       23.7%
                                    Being walking distance to the CBD and the Australian                        Carlton                $945,000                    29.3%                Mooroolbark           $480,000       23.1%
                                    National University is also a major drawcard for young                      Keysborough            $624,000                    28.7%                Balaclava             $550,000       20.6%
Market Factors                      buyers and investors.                                                       ACT                                                                     ACT

                                                                                                                O’Connor               $960,000                    21.5%                O’Connor              $490,000       15.3%
• 	R ising tenant and buyer        *   CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016; suburbs with a minimum   Ainslie                $925,000                    21.4%                Bonython              $455,000       11.9%
    demand                              of 40 sales during the year
                                                                                                                Deakin                 $1,145,500                  19.6%                City                  $532,500       11.8%

• 	Low or falling days on                                                                                      Narrabundah            $821,000                    17.0%                Cook                  $502,500       6.9%
   market                                                                                                       Hackett                $790,000                    16.2%                Bruce                 $425,000       5.7%

• 	Low or falling vacancy rates
                                                                                                                Source: CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016; suburbs with
• 	More auctions and rising                                                                                    a minimum of 40 sales during the year
   clearance rates
• 	Reduced vendor
   discounting
• 	Limited supply of future
   housing

Top 5 Apartment Growth

 1   Fairlight        (NSW) 46.0%
2    Ultimo           (NSW) 40.7%
3    Chipping Norton (NSW) 38.6%
4    Kirribilli       (NSW) 34.0%
5    Waverton         (NSW) 27.8%

McGrath Report 2017                 6                                                                                                                                                   Factors Driving Price Growth                              7
Trends                   Foreign investment                                                                                              $60.75bn
                                                               in Australian
                                                               residential real
                                                               estate

                                                              Chinese investment
                                                                                                                                           $34.71bn
                                                              in Australian
                                                              residential and
                                                              commercial real
                                                              estate                                                                                                           $24.35bn

                                                                                                               $17.16bn

                                                                                                                                           $12.41bn

                                                                                                               $5.93bn

Foreign investment has been a significant driver                                                                 FY2013                     FY2014                               FY2015

of Australia’s property market and in many ways a
contributing factor to our strong economy, particularly
over the past decade as China has boomed and its          Australia’s attractive lifestyle, clean air and food supply,
rising middle and upper class have looked for new         political and economic stability, high quality education                                    Top 10 Hot Spots for
                                                          and health facilities, safe cities, a similar time zone and                                 Chinese Buyers
ways to invest in a volatile international economy.       attractive property market has proven an irresistible
                                                          combination for our northern neighbours.

                                                          According to the latest Foreign Investment Review
                                                          Board (FIRB) data*, $60.75 billion was invested in
                                                          Australian residential real estate by foreign buyers

The Asia
                                                          in FY2015, up 75% on FY2014^.

                                                          By far, New South Wales and Victoria were the favoured
                                                          destinations and for the third consecutive year, the lion’s
                                                          share of investment came from China – and at record
                                                          levels, too.                                                                                 1   Glen Waverley         VIC

Story –
                                                                                                                                                       2   Doncaster             VIC
                                                          Chinese buyers invested $24.35 billion in residential                                        3   Box Hill              VIC
                                                          and commercial real estate last year*, almost                                               4    Epping                NSW
                                                          double that of FY2014^ and more than four times the                                          5   Mosman                NSW
                                                          investment of FY2013#.                                                                      6    West Ryde             NSW
                                                                                                                                                       7   Chatswood             NSW
                                                          Clearly, Chinese appetite for Australian property                                            8   Burwood               NSW

Is it over?
                                                          is increasing, so what happens when governments –                                           9    Hurstville            NSW
                                                          Australian and Chinese, tighten controls on                                                 10   Toorak                VIC
                                                          foreign investment?

                                                          In December 2015, the Australian Government intro-
                                                          duced fees for foreign real estate acquisitions, starting                                   Source: This is where Chinese buyers
                                                          at $5,000 for purchases below $1 million – which                                            want to live down under, realestate.
                                                                                                                                                      com.au and myfun.com, published
                                                                                                                                                      April 12, 2016

McGrath Report 2017              8                                                                                        The Asia Story                                                     9
represents the majority of foreign real estate purchases.
Top 10 Hot Spots for               In June 2016, the New South Wales Government                                                 Short Term                   Medium Term                      Long Term
Chinese Buyers by State            introduced a 4% stamp duty surcharge for foreign             What
                                   buyers and a 0.75% land tax surcharge from 2017.
NEW SOUTH WALES                                                                                 Does Brexit
                                   In July 2016, the Victorian Government raised their
                                                                                                Mean for
1        Epping

2        Mosman                    stamp duty surcharge for foreign purchasers from 3%
                                   to 7% and announced an increase in the absentee
                                                                                                Australian
3        West Ryde

4        Chatswood                 owner land tax surcharge from 0.5% to 1.5% from 2017.

                                                                                                Property?
5        Burwood

6        Hurstville                The Queensland Government also introduced a 3%
7        Hornsby                   stamp duty surcharge on foreign purchases in
8        Killara                   October 2016.
9        Lane Cove                                                                              The United Kingdom’s            Unlike equity, currency      Overall, the Brexit decision     With Brexit expected to take
10       Carlingford               And there’s even more hurdles for foreign buyers to          surprise vote to leave the      and commodity markets,       should work in our favour.       at least two years, it is hard to
VICTORIA                           jump with Australian banks tightening their lending          European Union in June          real estate is far less                                       predict the ultimate impact.
1        Glen Waverley             criteria and the Chinese Government limiting the             sent shockwaves around the      affected by investors’       Australia attracts a lot of
2        Doncaster                 amount of capital exiting the country.                       world, with many equity         knee-jerk reactions.         capital for commercial
3        Box Hill                                                                               markets taking a sizeable hit                                property and other invest-
4        Toorak                    While it’s too early for official numbers, anecdotal         after the announcement.         To date, there hasn’t been   ments from around the world
5        Balwyn                    evidence from our agents suggests mainland Chinese                                           a noticeable impact on our   and we are often competing
6        Doncaster East            investors have pulled back while Chinese clients             But what will Brexit mean for   market and we are not        with Europe for these dollars.
7        Balwyn North              already here continue to upgrade to new homes and            our property market?            expecting any impulsive
8        Kew                       purchase for investment.                                                                     moves by investors.          Our residential property
9        Wheelers Hill                                                                                                                                       market, particularly Sydney,
10       Carlton                   The effect of the new fees won’t be fully realised for                                                                    Melbourne and the Gold
QUEENSLAND                         another 12-18 months but we think it will be largely                                                                      Coast could benefit as
1        Southport                 limited to the new apartment market. FIRB figures*                                                                        overseas buyers turn away
2        Sunnybank                 show about 80% of all foreign purchases are under                                                                         from London, which has been
3        Robina                    $1 million – indicating that reduced Chinese demand                                                                       popular with foreign buyers.
4        Indooroopilly             and settlement defaults will hit the apartment sector
5        Surfers Paradise          most, with some impact also felt in the mid-priced
6        Tallai                    house market too.
7        Helensvale

8        New Farm                  As Chinese investment slows down – at least in the
9        Hawthorne                 short term, FIRB figures show increasing interest from
10       Carindale                 other parts of Asia, primarily Singapore, Malaysia,
                                   Hong Kong and Thailand.*^#

Source: This is where Chinese      We are also seeing an increase in investment
buyers want to live down under,    from emerging economies such as India, Vietnam
realestate.com.au and myfun.com,
published April 12, 2016
                                   and Indonesia.

                                   *	Annual Report 2014-15, Foreign Investment Review Board,
                                      published April 8, 2016

                                   ^	Annual Report 2013-14, Foreign Investment Review Board,
                                      published April 27, 2015

                                   #	Annual Report 2012-13, Foreign Investment Review Board,
                                      published February 28, 2014

McGrath Report 2017                10                                                                                                                        The Asia Story                                                   11
Trends
                                                          Most popular in East Coast capital city markets,
                                                          off-market selling is where a property is sold without                                                 Australian record for
                                                          any public advertising. Instead, owners quietly list with                                              single residence sale

                                                                                                                                                                 70m
                                                          a trusted professional who then introduces their home
                                                          to pre-selected clients without ads or open homes.

                                                          Off-market selling is happening across all price
                                                          brackets but particularly the prestige sector,
                                                          where privacy is a priority for high profile clientele.

                                                          Impressive record prices have been set off-market,
                                                          none more so than the $70 million Australian record for
                                                          a single residence set in 2015 when Chinese-Australian
                                                          developer, Dr Chau Chak Wing purchased James and
                                                          Erica Packer’s former home in Vaucluse, Sydney.
A significant off-market sales trend has emerged in
                                                          This year, suburban records have also been set
Australian prestige property due to an undersupplied      off-market in Sydney’s Longueville ($11.88 million) and

market, better use of database marketing, the rise of     Rozelle ($4 million); in Melbourne’s Northcote ($4.3
                                                          million); and in Brisbane’s New Farm ($10.5 million) –
the buyers’ agent and increased opportunity for wealthy   the city’s highest sale in 2016.

clients to maintain total privacy.                        Lack of stock has been a major contributor to stronger
                                                          off-market selling in 2016. Frustrated buyers are asking
                                                          agents for early notice of new listings and making
                                                          premium offers to snap them up and avoid open
                                                          market competition.

Off-Market
                                                          Agents are approaching home owners directly off the
                                                          back of clients’ requests for a particular street or a
                                                          home with very specific criteria. This proactivity has
                                                          given many owners the chance to sell for a premium,
                                                          avoid marketing costs and remain off the radar.

Selling
                                                          In Brisbane, off-market selling is occurring more so
                                                          because vendors are worried they won’t achieve their
                                                          price in this current market. They don’t want to pay for
                                                          marketing then potentially face the risk of not selling.
                                                          So agents are orchestrating deals using their databases
                                                          to match listings to buyers in a far more discreet and

of Prestige
                                                          personalised way.

                                                          Database marketing has facilitated the rise in off-market
                                                          selling. In terms of sales strategy, database marketing is
                                                          nothing new but today’s technology is enabling agents
                                                          to do it better.

Property
                                                          The size of agents’ databases, built up over many years
                                                          as our industry has shifted to a more personalised style
                                                          of marketing as part of the mix, means agents can
                                                          create real competition and achieve solid prices while
                                                          also meeting their vendors’ desire for privacy.

McGrath Report 2017             12                                                                                     Off-Market Selling of Prestige Property                           13
We believe prestige property will be the
                 next growth story in Australian real estate.
                This sector did not move as much during the
                     boom and price growth is overdue.

Agents are dedicating more time to developing               Demand for prestige property improved this year,
personal relationships with buyers, especially in the       with Chinese buyers continuing to move here for
high end market, as our industry evolves from a largely     lifestyle and expats purchasing future homes in
transactional to relationships-based business.              suburbs delivering solid rental yields until they
                                                            relocate back home.
Some agencies in Sydney and Melbourne have
introduced password-protected online platforms that         Growing demand from foreign buyers, expats and local
allow pre-qualified buyers to log in and view properties    upgraders should move prestige prices forward as long
not advertised on the major portals.                        as the global economy remains stable.

The proliferation of buyers’ agents has also led to more    Volatility in the share market, which is directly and
off-market selling. Clients of buyers’ agents are time-     immediately hit by events such as Brexit and acts of
poor and looking for a more efficient way of finding a      terrorism, might also attract more investment into
new home. Selling agents often introduce new listings       Australian real estate over coming years.
to buyers’ agents first and quick sales can ensue.
                                                            It also wouldn’t be surprising to see more people
Chinese social media, particularly the Facebook-            investing greater capital into their homes due to
equivalent WeChat is also enabling effective                changes to superannuation and the opportunity
international marketing to buyers willing to move           for tax-free capital gains.
quickly to secure the best homes on offer.

We believe prestige property will be the next growth
story in Australian real estate. This sector did not move
as much during the boom and price growth is overdue.

McGrath Report 2017                                         14                                                      Off-Market Selling of Prestige Property   15
Trends
                                                        Renovation Spending

                                                         1   Melbourne          $1.882 billion
                                                         2   Sydney             $1.684 billion
                                                         3   Brisbane           $766 million
                                                         4   Perth              $500 million
                                                         5   Adelaide           $299 million
                                                         6   Canberra           $111 million
                                                         7   Darwin             $57 million
                                                         8   Hobart             $57 million

                                                        Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
                                                        data modelled by Domain Group
                                                        Chief Economist Andrew Wilson,
                                                        domain.com.au, published February
                                                        27, 2016

Australian home owners are staying put longer,
with the average number of years that capital city
residents hold their homes trending up since 2005
from 6.7 years to 10.7 years for houses and 5.9 years
to 9 years for apartments.
                                                        The number of sales transactions has declined in line        Which brings us to the second major element affecting
                                                        with this trend, according to CoreLogic RP Data*.            hold periods – changes in the way we live.
                                                        So why are we staying put longer?
                                                                                                                     There has always been a strong correlation between

Are We
                                                        Essentially it boils down to financial reasons and           people’s life stages and their housing needs, however
                                                        changes in the way we live today.                            in today’s modern world the traditional trends in the
                                                                                                                     way we live are shifting and this is reducing the
                                                        Affordability and the costs of buying and selling are        necessity to move.
                                                        major factors. Stamp duty and agents’ fees alone
                                                        currently run to about $55,000 on a median priced            Couple-only households and people who live alone

Staying Put
                                                        house in Sydney today.                                       are the fastest growing types of households in
                                                                                                                     Australia today and they don’t need to move as much
                                                        Renovating is also on the rise, which tends to happen        as growing families.
                                                        at the end of a boom when affordability falls. Instead of
                                                        trading up, owners draw on new equity to renovate and        Recent Australian Bureau of Statistics figures^ show
                                                        extend instead. So it’s not surprising that Melbourne        46% of couple-only and lone person households
                                                        and Sydney are our renovating hot spots right now.           have lived in their current home for 10 or more years

Longer?
                                                                                                                     compared to 28% of families with kids.
                                                        A strong economy is also encouraging people to stay
                                                        put. Despite the GFC, it’s been 25 years since our last      Young people are staying home longer, prompting
                                                        recession so the biggest economic factors that prompt        many parents to delay their downsize or seachange.
                                                        people to sell – unemployment and financial stress –         When they buy their first home or rent with friends or
                                                        are less at play. People in secure jobs can stay put until   a partner, they can stay there longer because they are
                                                        personal circumstances demand a change of address.           delaying marriage and kids until much later in life.

McGrath Report 2017              16                                                                                  Are We Staying Put Longer?                               17
Previously, as people’s incomes grew, they would look     Staying put means avoiding moving costs and
to upgrade to a better property but wage growth is not    preserving pension arrangements, which can change                                     East Coast Capitals with the Longest Hold Periods
nearly keeping pace with property prices, so there are    after selling. The GFC also prompted many empty-
plenty of couples staying put in apartments or small      nesters to delay retirement and stay put while they                                   Houses                                                  Apartments
houses until their first or second child comes along.     continued working to replenish lost superannuation.
                                                                                                                                                SUBURB                     YEARS                        SUBURB          YEARS
The average family size is also getting smaller, with     Buying and holding is the key to success in Australian                                NSW                                                     NSW
a steady decline from 3-4 kids in the 1960s to 1-2 kids   real estate. Although owner-occupiers are primarily                                   Dawes Point                29.7                         Bella Vista     14.9
today#. This means many families can stay put longer      motivated by lifestyle factors, it’s important to                                     Regentville                22.6                         Haberfield      14.1
in properties with fewer bedrooms.                        remember that your home is your greatest financial                                    Ellis Lane                 22.2                         Russell Lea     13.1
                                                          asset and the best capital growth always occurs over                                  Vineyard                   22.0                         Drummoyne       13.1
We’re also seeing a rise in multi-generational            the long term.                                                                        Maraylya                   20.9                         Schofields      13.0
households with couples and in-laws pooling funds                                                                                               QLD                                                     QLD
to buy a large home that will suit them for the long      *    Property Pulse, CoreLogic RP Data, published March 30, 2015                      Pinjarra Hills             16.4                         Grange          11.8
term. ABS data^ shows the majority of multi-family        ^    Housing Mobility and Conditions 2013–14,                                         Rochedale                  15.7                         Kenmore         11.3
households stay put for 10-20 years or more.                   Australian Bureau of Statistics, published December 10, 2015                     Macgregor                  15.3                         Sunnybank       11.3

                                                          #    Births, Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Statistics,                         St Lucia                   14.6                         St Lucia        11.2
Our ageing population is also contributing to longer           published October 29, 2015                                                       Nathan                     14.5                         Macgregor       11.2
hold periods. Mortgage-free home ownership is                                                                                                   VIC                                                     VIC
highest amongst older Australians and they prefer to                                                                                            Cranbourne South           22.2                         Braeside        17.5
stay put long term if they can, with 47% of owners^                                                                                             Belgrave South             18.2                         Wheelers Hill   15.9
without a mortgage living in their homes for more                                                                                               Vermont South              18.2                         Ivanhoe East    15.7
than 20 years.                                                                                                                                  Noble Park North           17.7                         Hadfield        15.3

                                                                                                                                                Warrandyte                 17.4                         Viewbank        14.9

                                                                                                                                                ACT                                                     ACT

                                                                                                                                                Bonython                   14.7                         Reid            14.3

                                                                                                                                                Gowrie                     14.4                         Monash          14.2

                                                                                                                                                Hawker                     13.2                         Holt            13.9

                                                                                                                                                Chapman                    13.2                         Higgins         13.5

                                                                                                                                                Palmerston                 13.1                         Greenway        12.9

                                                                                             Source: Housing Occupancy and Costs 2013-14,
    FY2014      FY1995                                                            Australian Bureau of Statistics, published October 16, 2015   Source: CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016

Australians Who Own Their Homes                           Australians Who Are Private Renters

  71%

  67%

                                                              26%

                                                              18%

McGrath Report 2017                                       18                                                                                                               Are We Staying Put Longer?                           19
150                                  Trends
                                                    A huge range of digital platforms continue to change        Push technology will alert home hunters to nearby
                                                    the method and pace of real estate transactions, with       properties for sale and unlock special content to
                                                    buyers and sellers more informed and better prepared        heighten their engagement.
                                                    than ever before and the best agents harnessing
The average Australian                              innovation to improve their marketing power and             Virtual reality will provide an on site experience for off
checks their phone                                  service style. Specialised apps, price predictors, social   site clientele. VR stations in real estate offices will make
150 times a day^                                    media, free market research and cheap independent           open inspections an everyday convenience for buyers.

2020
                                                    property reports available for purchase online have all
                                                    worked to benefit the consumer.                             Artificial intelligence will use algorithms to help
                                                                                                                buyers search, all the while learning from each
                                                    Email, SMS, database marketing and big data has             interaction to understand what the user really wants
                                                    enabled agents to better engage with buyers and             in their next home.
By 2020 80% of all                                  global property portals have expanded their audience.
content on the internet                             A raft of business software and bluetooth gadgetry          Blockchain technology and smart contracts will
will be video#                                      has increased their efficiency and shortened response       simplify the transaction process and automate
                                                    times to enquiries.                                         procedures traditionally undertaken by intermediaries
                                                                                                                like banks and inspectors.
                                                    Real estate technology began with search and has
                                                    now extended to service. Consumers want a less              Platforms allowing customers to send a single loan
                                                    stressful experience and are intolerant of agents who       request to a multitude of lenders will result in more
Australian homes have                               can’t provide it.                                           competition and a better deal on finance for borrowers.
more mobile devices than
toothbrushes**                                      For example, the experience of opens is changing,           Technology will undoubtedly continue to raise clients’
                                                    with names and numbers still taken at the door but on       expectations and the best agents are meeting this
                                                    an iPad that syncs with the agent’s phone and database      challenge through a more holistic approach, including
                                                    for more effective follow-up. Buyers can use apps to        building long term relationships with their clients
                                                    pre-register their attendance and skip the queue; and       and focusing more on ‘outcomes’ over simple
                                                    can request and receive a contract via email before         sales transactions.
                                                    they have even left the property.
                                                                                                                *   Future of Real Estate and Property Finance Industries Report, CoreLogic
                                                                                                                    published April 13, 2016
Since the advent of internet marketing and mobile   Scores of small innovations are often quickly
                                                    superseded. The evolution of the signboard provides         ^   Google Mobile Forum, 2016

technology in the 1990s, the nature of buying and   an example – once a simple board, it was then given         #   realestate.com.au Strategy Forum, 2016

                                                    an overhead light, a QR code, then full background          ** realestate.com.au Momentum, 2016
selling has been turned on its head.                lighting and now touch screen.

                                                    Photos on a webpage are no longer enough, with
                                                    360-degree photography and fly-through technology
                                                    providing a more complete perspective and the
                                                    opportunity to inspect every part of a room.                               A huge range

Real Estate
                                                    Location analytics are helping buyers purchase in                       of digital platforms
                                                    unfamiliar locations with greater confidence. Buyers
                                                    can discover an area’s demographics, traffic data,                      continue to change
                                                    property developments, points of interest, drive times,
                                                    walk times and street and aerial views with ease.                         the method and
                                                                                                                             pace of real estate

of the Future
                                                    And there is so much more to come.

                                                    According to CoreLogic’s Future of Real Estate Report*,                    transactions.
                                                    push technology, artificial intelligence, virtual reality
                                                    and blockchains will be the next big tech trends in
                                                    real estate.

McGrath Report 2017             20                                                                              Real Estate of the Future                                                     21
Friday 5pm                                     Saturday 9am                                   Saturday 9.30am                                 Saturday 10am                                       Saturday 10.15am
A Day in
the Life
of a 2027
Buyer
                                           It’s been a busy week at work but behind       Your Uber turns up and you slip into the       This place is awesome – a fully equipped        Back in the car, you press a button to              Now you’re on your way to an apartment.
                                           the scenes your Amazon Echo has been           seat. Meanwhile, your phone syncs with         smart home with all the latest features         request a contract, which arrives in                A quick search of public strata records
                                           automatically preparing your Saturday          the car’s TV for a cinematic introduction      to enjoy.                                       60 seconds.                                         alerts you to an upcoming special levy
                                           open inspection schedule. At 5pm,              to your first property.                                                                                                                            that explains why two other owners are
                                           Amazon’s Alexa asks you to approve your                                                       You’re impressed by the green features,         You liked that house and want to find               also selling. You cancel this stop and
                                           schedule while simultaneously booking          You swivel the seat for the perfect            including bioadaptive lighting that             out more. An app shows you the home’s               voice command Alexa to find the next
                                           a self-driving single seat Uber for a stress   angle and flick through the 360-degree         activates upon entering a room and the          latest survey, information on zoning                best option for that timeslot.
                                           free all day chauffeur experience.             photos before taking the virtual tour.         air purification system that tells you the      and nearby development applications.
                                                                                          Amazon’s Alexa provides a                      pollen count and directly attacks odours.
                                                                                          comprehensive rundown of the home’s                                                            Your Green app shows the home’s
                                                                                          best features and answers a few of your        CBUS technology is a given these days,          sustainability rating, the latest electricity
                                                                                          questions before you arrive out front.         incorporating lighting, security and            and water bills and the noise pollution
                                                                                                                                         surround sound. As you test out the             recorded within 500 metres.
                                                                                                                                         control pad, your mind drifts back to the
                                                                                                                                         days of wall-mounted powerpoints and            You check the agent’s price guide against
                                                                                                                                         light switches. So old school now.              recent sales on a per square metre basis,
                                                                                                                                                                                         providing a much clearer picture of the
                                                                                                                                                                                         home’s true worth.

Saturday 11am                              Saturday 11.45am                               Saturday 12pm                                  Saturday 12.30pm                                Saturday 1pm                                        Saturday 1.30pm

The next property you visit has DA         Using your iPad, you register to bid           You’re meeting your buyers’ agent at the       The next stop is a developer’s office for       The last property of the day is a real              On your way home, you press a button to
approval for an extension. At the door,    at a live streamed auction in Hong             next one. It’s an off-market listing that is   a VR presentation of a new apartment            contender. You’ve finally found that                turn on the lights and air-conditioning
the agent hands you a headset that talks   Kong. You’d love to invest in this city        only being shown to a few clients. As you      block. It has a 5-star sustainability rating    big entertaining space but the vendor’s             for your arrival. You flick two contracts to
you through the changes allowed. A         but affordable apartments are hard to          drive down the street, an e-alert tells you    which bumps up the price but energy             clutter makes it hard to imagine as your            a legal app where freelance solicitors bid
builder, architect and designer are all    find. You place the opening bid but the        that No 8 is in pre-launch and the first       costs will be halved long term.                 own. You take a photo and upload to                 to provide written advice by Monday.
standing by on Skype so buyers can ask     offers soon surpass your budget. You           open will be next week. You click a button                                                     your interior design app, which inserts
questions via a group conference call.     watch proceedings and log off when the         to save the details.                           You select an apartment and ‘virtually’         your furniture and shows the space in               You’re on your way to buying your next
No need to pre-register your attendance    hammer falls.                                                                                 stroll out to the balcony, where you change     a variety of colours.                               home. Much easier than in 2016.
here, a fingerprint scanner collects                                                                                                     the time of day to night to see the cityscape
your details.                                                                                                                            views. You play with the colour and fixtures
                                                                                                                                         menu to design your perfect kitchen and
                                                                                                                                         bathroom. You save your changes, email
                                                                                                                                         them to your iPad and collect glossy colour
                                                                                                                                         print-outs at the door.

McGrath Report 2017                                                22                                                                                                                                            Real Estate of the Future                                             23
Cities
                                                                                                                      Many would-be upgraders are staying put and renovating      In Sydney, Eastern Suburbs owners who bought in the
                                                                                                                      instead, with Sydney and Melbourne owners spending          $2 million-$4 million bracket are now selling for $7 million
                                                                                                                      more than twice the money of owners in other capital        and upgrading to $10 million. In the Lower North Shore
                                                                                                                      cities, according to the ABS and Domain research.           harbour suburbs, young families are selling for $4 million
                                                                                                                                                                                  -$5 million and upgrading to $8 million-$10 million.
                                                                                                                      While investors are still out there, we have definitely
                                                                                                                      noticed a drop-off due to tighter lending criteria. The     Affordability remains an issue across Sydney. The
                                                                                                                      APRA-led changes introduced in early 2015 aimed to          traditional migration west for cheaper housing

                           Sydney
                                                                                                                      limit growth in the banks’ property investment lending to   continues, with the greatest population growth over
                                                                                                                      less than 10% per year and this has now been achieved.      the next 20 years expected in Camden, Parramatta,
                                                                                                                                                                                  The Hills and Liverpool regions, according to new
                                                                                                                      The top end of the market improved this year. The lower     figures from the NSW Department of Planning#.
                                                                                                                      dollar has encouraged expats and foreign buyers; and
                                                                                                                      locals who purchased wisely post-GFC are now looking        However, limited greenfield development space on
                                                                                                                      to cash in and upgrade.                                     Sydney’s western fringe means we need to get creative

          Sydney remains Australia’s strongest and most
                                                                                                                           Median House Price

                                                                                                                           Median Apartment Price

            enduring property market. It's powered by                                                                                                                                                                              $895,000

         long-standing fundamentals of undersupply and                                                                                                                            $813,000

        population growth, providing every type of lifestyle
         possible including beachside, harbourside, CBD                                                                  $708,000

             living and suburban neighbourhoods for                                                                                                                                                                                 $678,750

                     almost 5 million residents.
                                                                                                                                                                                  $630,000

                                                                                                                         $570,000

Sydney real estate is like gold and in my opinion,        According to CoreLogic RP Data*, the pace of price
despite the phenomenal boom of 2012-2016, Sydney          growth in Sydney has halved this year but median
property prices will continue to rise.                    property values are still up 12.8% to $880,000 for houses
                                                          and 7.5% to $665,500 for apartments over the first eight
Latest figures from CoreLogic RP Data* tell us that       months of 2016. Pretty impressive for a slowing market.
Sydney property prices have risen 64% in four years.
This is spectacular growth and well ahead of the          Record low listing numbers have contributed to very
second best result in Melbourne at 44%.                   strong auction clearance rates between 70% to above
                                                          80% all year.
For many Sydney property owners, the boom has
delivered extraordinary gains for those in the market.    Local upgraders have been the greatest buying force,
But how do you best capitalise on this newfound wealth?   aiming to use new equity to upgrade their homes and
                                                          potentially refinance while interest rates are so low.
Meantime, the market is showing signs of plateauing       However, fear of selling and not being able to buy back
but price growth has continued due to a significant       in is resulting in a determination to buy first, so stock
undersupply of stock and strong demand buoyed by          remains low.
further falls in interest rates.                                                                                         2014                                                     2015                                                  2016

                                                                                                                      S ource: CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016

McGrath Report 2017                                       24                                                                                                                      Sydney                                                       25
in housing a predicted 1.7 million new residents over        This is where young people want to live and over the
                                                                                                                                         the next two decades#. Among the options is subdivision      next few years, they will be spoilt for choice and finally
                                                                                                                                         of traditional blocks in established suburbs to enable       have some negotiating power on their side.
                                                                                                                                         more terraces, townhouses and dual occupancies; and
                           3                                                                                                             more high rise apartment living around suburban CBDs.        We see a bright future for the Sydney property market.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      There is plenty of long term price growth ahead even
                                                                                                                                         Meantime, a growing cohort of young families are             as we approach a major affordability hurdle for younger
                                                                                                                                         leaving Sydney altogether in favour of affordable            buyers today.
                                                                                                                                         lifestyle locations, with ABS figures showing the most
                                                                                                 5                                       popular spots are the Richmond-Tweed region,                 We believe the burgeoning global audience for Sydney
                                                                                                                                         Mid-North Coast, Central Coast and Hunter Valley**.          real estate will be a key contributor to future price
                                                                                                                                                                                                      growth; and the long term stability of the market and
                                                                                                                                         Chinese buyers remain a force in Sydney, however new         opportunity to create significant personal wealth will
                                                                                                                                         fees levied by both federal and state governments on top     sustain the aspirations of Sydneysiders to own their
                                                                               2
                                                                                                                                         of tighter lending criteria for foreigners has resulted in   own homes for generations to come.
                                                                                                                                         reduced demand and settlement risk on new apartments.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      *	Hedonic Home Value Index, CoreLogic RP Data, published September 1, 2016

                                                                                                                                         There’s a two-year pipeline of 82,000 new apartments         #
                                                                                                                                                                                                          	NSW Population Projections 2016 Update, NSW Department of Planning and
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Environment, published September 12, 2016
                                                                                                                                         to be completed in Sydney, according to CoreLogic RP
                                                                                                                                         Data^^. To put that in perspective, 43,500 apartments        **	Is family-led sea and tree change back in vogue? CoreLogic RP Data, pub-
                                                                                                                                                                                                          lished April 18, 2016 and Migration, Australia 2014-15, Australian Bureau of
                                                                                                                                         are sold in Sydney per year but that includes
                                                                         1                                                                                                                                Statistics, published March 30, 2016
                                                                                                                                         established apartments, which represent a bigger share
                                                                                                                                                                                                      ^^	Record high unit construction increases settlement risk, CoreLogic RP Data,
                                                                                                                                         of the pie.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          published May 16, 2016

                                                                                                                                         This wave of new supply will be concentrated around
                                                                                                                                         the inner city and suburban employment and shopping
                                                                                   4
                                                                                                                                         hubs such as Strathfield, Parramatta and Ryde.

John McGrath’s         1       Canterbury                   3   Rouse Hill                           5   Forestville                                                                                                                                      Audi Benchmark
Top Picks
                      Once an average suburban             Follow the money. At the minute           This has been a favourite suburb                                                                                                            As they often say, “Follow the
                      precinct best known for its equine   it’s all heading to the North West        for several years now. If you                                                                                                               smart money if you want to get
                      interests; Canterbury is fast        ahead of the soon-to-be-completed         crossed the leafy North Shore                                                                                                               ahead”. So what better barometer
                      becoming an Inner West bolthole      new rail line. The surrounding            with the vibrant Northern                                                                                                                   than taking a peek at where the
                      attracting young families and        areas are equally as attractive           Beaches, Forestville would be the                                                                                                           smart drivers garage their Audis
                      professionals alike. Buy, sit and    for both lifestyle and capital            outcome. Relatively easy access                                                                                                             each night.
                      watch your asset grow in value.      growth but the Rouse Hill Town            to the CBD, just 7 minutes to the
                                                           Centre is worth seeing for that           surf and surrounded by trees, its
                                                           address alone.                            ideal for homemakers.                                                                                                                        1   Zetland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2   Parramatta
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  3   Mosman
                       2       Hunters Hill                 4    ans Souci /
                                                                S                                                                                                                                                                                 4   Five Dock

                                                                Dolls Point                                                                                                                                                                       5   Artarmon
                      We still can’t work out why the                                                                                                                                                                                             6   Pennant Hills
                      values here for some of the          Surrounded by water and with                                                                                                                                                           7   Sutherland
                      country’s best real estate are       all the appeal and benefits of                                                                                                                                                         8   Newcastle West
                      materially below her peers in the    Sydney’s southern suburbs yet
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  9   Wollongong
                      East and North? This attractive      only minutes to the bay and airport
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 10   Coffs Harbour
                      garden enclave is private and        with easy access to the CBD.
                      discreet with beautiful homes and    Leaves little doubt that this area
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 S ource: Audi Australia
                      perfumed gardens. If you want to     will continue to be one of the most
                      see some of the best homes in the    desirable in Sydney.
                      country, you better check it out.

McGrath Report 2017                                        26                                                                                                                                         Sydney                                                                         27
Cities
                                                                                                                  In Parkville, homes within the catchment for University     in the early $1 millions and buying in Croydon for
                                                                                                                  High have a median house price of $1,395,000                $800,000-$900,000.
                                                                                                                  compared to $799,000 for homes that are 1 km
                                                                                                                  outside the zone. Similarly, homes in the catchment         Given Melbourne’s tight supply and rising prices,
                                                                                                                  for McKinnon Secondary College have a $305,000              we are seeing the ripple effect in many areas.
                                                                                                                  premium over those outside the zone**.                      For example, buyers priced out of the highly desirable
                                                                                                                                                                              Bayside area are purchasing next door in Bentleigh and
                                                                                                                  With interest rates continuing at record lows, young        McKinnon, leading to several sales above $2 million

                Melbourne
                                                                                                                  buyers are stretching their budgets to get into premium     this year – a price level not thought possible just a few
                                                                                                                  areas. They’re targeting small inner ring cottages with a   years ago.
                                                                                                                  bit of character and paying well over reserve to secure
                                                                                                                  a piece of prime land while they can.                       APRA restrictions have impacted investor demand
                                                                                                                                                                              but we are still receiving enquiries from Sydney, Perth,
                                                                                                                  Some vendors are leveraging strong selling conditions       Brisbane and ex-Melbourne locals living overseas.
                                                                                                                  to upgrade to larger homes in more affordable               Many investors have now put Sydney into the ‘too
                                                                                                                  areas with change to spare. For example, vendors in         hard box’ due to affordability and switched focus
                                                                                                                  Doncaster, Mitcham, Blackburn and Box Hill are selling      to Melbourne.

        Melbourne and Sydney have long been the engine
                                                                                                                       Median House Price

                                                                                                                       Median Apartment Price

        rooms of Australia’s property market, with Sydney
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $608,000

     traditionally leading the way. But the southern capital                                                         $540,000
                                                                                                                                                                              $560,000

      is looking more appealing than ever before due to its
       superior value for money and glowing reputation as                                                            $470,000                                                 $472,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $485,000

       the world’s most liveable city for the past six years*.

Melbourne’s relative affordability is contributing to     in FY2016 to $608,000, with the median apartment
record high net interstate migration, as well as strong   price up 2.5% to $485,000##.
net overseas migration, making it Australia’s fastest
growing capital city with an average of 1,760 people      However, some areas experienced much stronger price
moving in per week in FY2015, according to the ABS^.      growth due to a lack of supply in 2016. According to
                                                          CoreLogic RP Data, Melbourne’s top 10 suburbs for
Although Sydney outshone its southern cousin in the       house price growth in FY2016 all experienced more
boom with 64% growth in home values compared to           than 25% gains in value##.
44% since 2012#, Melbourne arguably offers greater
prospects for growth in the future.                       The dominant buyers in Melbourne today are upsizing
                                                          families, most of whom are targeting the catchment
Its median house price is $287,000 cheaper## and a        zones of top performing public schools to avoid
projected population surge from 4.61 million in 2016 to   private school fees. This trend is so strong that new
7.91 million in 2053 will see it overtake Sydney as the   REIV research** shows there is now a significant
most populous city in Australia^^.                        price difference between homes located within top
                                                          catchments and those that border them.
Melbourne’s median house price rose by a modest 8.6%                                                                 2014                                                     2015                                                 2016

                                                                                                                  S ource: CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016

McGrath Report 2017                                       28                                                                                                                  Melbourne                                                   29
The southern capital has long been the favoured                                     Melbourne is facing an oversupply of apartments,
                                                                                                                                             destination of offshore Chinese buyers but demand                                   which currently represent 49% of stock for sale
                                                                                                                                             has softened this year following changes to lending                                 compared to 42% a year ago and 29% in 2011^^^.
                                                                                                                                             criteria for foreigners and forced sales of properties                              CoreLogic RP Data figures show a pipeline of 80,500
                                                                                                                                             purchased in breach of Foreign Investment Review                                    new apartments due for completion over the next two
                                                                                                                                             Board regulations.                                                                  years when only 61,500 apartments (old and new) are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 usually sold over this timeframe###.
                                                                                                                                             Despite this, Melbourne’s prestige market remains
                                                                    4
                                                                                                                                             strong with a new house price record for the city set in                            This presents a great opportunity for owner-occupiers
                                                                                                                                             Toorak at $24.1 million and Victoria’s highest residential                          with a long term view but they need to choose wisely.
                                                            5                                                                                sale ever occurring in South Yarra with the exchange of
                                                                                                                                             three homes in one line for $33 million – both this year.

                                                                                                                                             Sales above $25 million are expected for the
                                                                1
                                                                                                                                             penthouses in South Yarra’s glamorous Capitol
                                                                                                                                             Grand development, which would break the national
                                                                                                                                             apartment record.
                                                                                                            3

                                                                                        2
                                                                                                                                             * 	Global Liveability Ranking 2016, The Economist Intelligence Unit,               ^^	Population Projections, Australia 2012 to 2101, Australian Bureau of
                                                                                                                                                 published August 18, 2016                                                           Statistics, published November 26, 2013

                                                                                                                                             ^	Regional Population Growth, Australia 2014-15,                                   ##
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      	CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016; suburbs with a minimum of
                                                                                                                                                Australian Bureau of Statistics, published March 30, 2016                               40 sales in the year

                                                                                                                                             #
                                                                                                                                                 	Hedonic Home Value Index, CoreLogic RP Data, published September 1, 2016      ^^^	Units are increasingly making up a higher proportion of overall stock
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      available for sale, largely driven by the nation’s two largest capital cities,
                                                                                                                                             **	Top of the class: School zones boost prices in 2016, Real Estate Institute of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      CoreLogic RP Data, published August 2, 2016
                                                                                                                                                 Victoria, published June 27, 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ###
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       	Record high unit construction increases settlement risk, CoreLogic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         RP Data, published May 16, 2016

John McGrath’s         1   Windsor                                  3   Wheelers Hill                   5    bbotsford
                                                                                                            A                                                                                                                                                                             Audi Benchmark
Top Picks
                      A hidden gem neighbouring                 Wheelers Hill has a median house       This inner city precinct less than                                                                                                                                      As they often say, “Follow the
                      Prahran, Windsor was once con-            price that is $250,000 less than its   3km from Melbourne’s CBD has                                                                                                                                            smart money if you want to get
                      sidered the grungy end of Chapel          neighbours of Glen Waverley and        been though significant gentrifica-                                                                                                                                     ahead”. So what better barometer
                      Street but now the hipster crowd is       Mount Waverley, yet it is only 5-10    tion over the past decade. With an                                                                                                                                      than taking a peek at where the
                      moving in. We see great potential         minutes away. Buyers are               abundance of leisure and lifestyle                                                                                                                                      smart drivers garage their Audis
                      for this trendy pocket, which has         increasingly looking for better        amenities, it also has cycling and                                                                                                                                      each night.
                      easy access to trains and shops and       value here and we anticipate solid     running routes alongside the
                      is conveniently close to the CBD.         price growth as a result.              Yarra River. Young professionals
                                                                                                       and families enjoy its walkability                                                                                                                                        1   Melbourne
                                                                                                       and accessibility well serviced by                                                                                                                                       2    Bentleigh
                                                                                                       trams and trains, while cashed up
                       2   Oakleigh South                           4   Northcote                                                                                                                                                                                               3    Doncaster
                                                                                                       downsizers are now discovering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4    Burwood
                                                                                                       this gem.
                      Change is on its way with a               Just 6 km north of the CBD,                                                                                                                                                                                     5    Berwick
                      noticeable uplift in buyer demand         Northcote has undergone major                                                                                                                                                                                   6    Ballarat
                      over the past 12-18 months. This          change and is now a destination
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 7   Glen Iris
                      suburb is full of mid-century             suburb for young professionals and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                8    Brighton
                      homes on big blocks with plenty of        families. High Street village offers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                9    Geelong
                      potential for knockdown/re-builds         many restaurants and the tram
                      and development. Downsizers are           runs straight through to the city                                                                                                                                                                               10   Glen Waverley

                      capitalising on a 10-15% jump in          with a train station also close by.
                      land values over the past few years       Local schools including Northcote                                                                                                                                                                              S ource: Audi Australia

                      and selling to young families             High and Santa Maria College are
                      and developers.                           increasingly popular.

McGrath Report 2017                                             30                                                                                                                                                               Melbourne                                                                             31
Cities
                                                                                                                      In the apartment market, Brisbane is facing an            ladder through a buy, renovate, sell and repeat strategy.
                                                                                                                      oversupply with a two-year pipeline of 44,511             In the more affordable suburbs, a huge range of buyers
                                                                                                                      dwellings to be completed, according to CoreLogic         including local upgraders, downsizers, renovators, first
                                                                                                                      RP Data**. This is significant when ordinarily about      home buyers and some Sydney and Melbourne lifestyle
                                                                                                                      30,000 apartments would be sold in this timeframe         buyers are targeting up-and-coming areas particularly
                                                                                                                      and that includes a combination of old and new.           on the southern Gold Coast.

                                                                                                                      The oversupply will be primarily around the city          Buyers are especially drawn to areas such as Miami,

                      Brisbane &
                                                                                                                      and inner ring areas. Investors are increasingly wary     Palm Beach and Tugun where good quality houses that
                                                                                                                      of this and some developers have delayed their            are walking distance to the beach are selling for well
                                                                                                                      projects. However, it does present an opportunity for     below $1 million.
                                                                                                                      owner-occupiers with a long term view. The newly
                                                                                                                      boosted First Home Owners’ Grant, up from $15,000 to      These suburbs offer exceptional value and
                                                                                                                      $20,000 until June 30, 2017 should help young buyers      opportunities for growth. A Palm Beach home worth

                      Surrounds
                                                                                                                      in this market.                                           $600,000 is worth $1 million just 9 km up the road in
                                                                                                                                                                                Mermaid Beach. On the beachfront, Palm Beach buyers
                                                                                                                      On the Gold Coast, plenty is happening and it’s           are paying $2.5-$3 million compared to $5-5.5 million
                                                                                                                      all positive.                                             in Mermaid Beach.

                                                                                                                      Locals who bought highly discounted properties in         In the prestige market, there have been very few sales
                                                                                                                      prime areas post-GFC have now renovated or re-built       above $10 million since 2009 but this year six were
                                                                                                                      and are selling with a view to buying again in a better   recorded over the first three quarters alone, reflecting
                                                                                                                      location. They are making money and moving up the         rising confidence particularly among locals.

    South-East Queensland continues to offer outstanding
       opportunity for growth but a sluggish economy,
        political upheaval, low population growth and
       an impending apartment oversupply is delaying
     significant price growth overdue in Brisbane today.                                                                       Audi Benchmark

                                                                                                                      As they often say, “Follow the
                                                                                                                      smart money if you want to get
                                                                                                                      ahead”. So what better barometer
                                                                                                                      than taking a peek at where the
                                                                                                                      smart drivers garage their Audis
The end of the mining boom has hit Queensland hard.        But through all this, the property market is showing       each night.
Brisbane is no longer experiencing the strong flow of      resilience. According to CoreLogic RP Data, median
money that came from regional areas where mining           property values (houses and apartments) along the
workers earning big salaries were investing in Brisbane    Brisbane to Gold Coast corridor rose by 5.7% to             1   Fortitude Valley
real estate or buying family homes in Brisbane for a       $482,000 in FY2016^ compared to 3.5% growth in              2   Southport
fly-in fly-out lifestyle.                                  FY2015 and 6.7% in FY2014.                                  3   Indooroopilly
                                                                                                                       4   Slacks Creek
Latest statistics from the ABS and CoreLogic RP Data       Despite all the big picture challenges, the market is       5   Currimundi
show Brisbane’s population growth is at its lowest point   currently seen as affordable, safe, steady, reliable and    6   Townsville
since 2001*. Continuously strong economic conditions       doing well in tough economic conditions.                    7   Springwood
in New South Wales and Victoria and uninspired state                                                                   8   Cairns
management following the Liberal National Party’s          As always, some suburbs have exhibited exceptional          9   Toowoomba
removal after one term and now a minority Labor            results. Those with more than 15% house price growth in    10   Hamilton
Government provides no incentive for big business          FY2016 include Robertson (25.6%), Darra (23.9%), Wil-
                                                                                                                      S ource: Audi Australia
to set up and expand into Brisbane.                        ston (20.3%), Chelmer (19%), Banyo (17.2%), New Farm
                                                           (16.8%), Sandgate (16.8%) and Carina Heights (16.2%)#.

McGrath Report 2017                                        32                                                                                                                   Brisbane & Surrounds                                   33
The biggest deal was the $25 million sale of a Mermaid                                                        *	Melbourne leads population
Beach mansion in September. There was also the $15.5                                                             growth, CoreLogic RP Data, pub-
                                                                                                                 lished April 11, 2016 and Regional                 4
million sale of a riverfront Isle of Capri residence to                                                          Population Growth, Australia
Chinese buyers and two other sales in Mermaid Beach                                                              2014-15, Australian Bureau of Sta-
for $13.25 million and $11.45 million. There was also an                                                         tistics, published March 30, 2016

$11 million sale on Cronin Island and a $10.9 million sale                                                    ^	Hedonic Home Value Index,
at Sanctuary Cove.                                                                                               CoreLogic RP Data, published
                                                                                                                 July 1, 2016

We remain very optimistic about the Gold Coast. In the                                                        #	CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months
lead-up to the 2018 Commonwealth Games, billions                                                                 to June 30, 2016; suburbs with a               5
                                                                                                                 minimum of 40 sales in the year
is being spent on infrastructure and the economy is
becoming more diversified with health and education                                                           **	Record high unit construction in-
jobs supplementing the more volatile retail, tourism and                                                          creases settlement risk, CoreLogic
                                                                                                                  RP Data, published May 16, 2016
construction industries.

On the Sunshine Coast, there is a lot of demand at the
upper end in Noosa and Sunshine Beach. Local
upgraders and lifestyle buyers from Queensland,
Sydney and Melbourne are spending up to $5 million
for properties to either occupy now or use as holiday
homes ahead of retirement. A new record for beach-
front homes on the coast was set in September with a
$9.3 million sale at Sunshine Beach.

John McGrath’s                  1   Gordon Park                         3   Mermaid Waters                     5   Maroochydore                            1
Top Picks
                               Brisbane’s smallest suburb, Gordon      This suburb offers very good           This is a town on the move with its
                               Park offers fantastic value and great   value and a mix of waterfront and      CBD undergoing a complete                2

                               infrastructure. Access to the CBD       non-waterfront homes. We are see-      makeover. Just 2 km from the
                               has become much easier with the         ing at least 4-5 registered bidders    ocean, there is already a fresh,
                               Clem7 and Inner City Bypass. New        across all auctions in this suburb.    exciting new vibe on the main
                               cafes are popping up and a ripple       This is an ideal location for second   street with lots of new roads, retail,
                               effect is occurring from the more       home buyers who don’t have the         commercial spaces and community
                               established and pricier neighbouring    budget for Mermaid Beach. A lot        facilities on the way.
                               suburbs of Grange and Wilston.          of buyers are renovating so the
                                                                       suburb is undergoing a facelift.

                                2   Taringa                            4    Sunrise Beach

                               Situated next to St Lucia and Indo-     With a median house price of
                               oroopilly, Taringa has access to all    $675,000, it offers better value
                               the same amenities as its blue chip     than neighbouring Sunshine Beach
                               neighbours but offers better value      (median $1,015,000) but probably
                               for buyers. According to CoreLogic      not for long! Just a few minutes
                               RP Data, Taringa house prices rose      outside Noosa, Sunrise Beach has                                                                           3
                               10.2% in FY2016* but we think           had a noticeable kick in activity
                               there is more growth to come.           and 12.5% house price growth
                                                                       in FY2016*.

McGrath Report 2017                                                    34                                                                                  Brisbane & Surrounds       35
Cities
                                                                                                                     having a big impact on the market. Approximately 260      Meanwhile, the incredibly rare opportunity to buy
                                                                                                                     homes have already been demolished with 176 sched-        vacant land in premium established suburbs
                                                                                                                     uled for demolition between July and December 2016 **.    following the demolition of ‘Mr Fluffy’ homes is really
                                                                                                                                                                               exciting buyers.
                                                                                                                     The scheme has displaced hundreds of families who all
                                                                                                                     need to buy or rent. They have been paid well for their   The first 10 blocks were taken to auction in April.
                                                                                                                     homes and the stamp duty concession on their next         Among the sales was a block in Pearce for $605,000
                                                                                                                     purchase is giving them extra buying power and the        and one in Chapman for $610,000 – both close to

                      Canberra
                                                                                                                     ability to buy quickly and compete strongly at auction.   the city’s median house price of $607,000.

                                                                                                                     Some are staying in their area, others are upgrading      This signalled to other home owners just how valuable
                                                                                                                     elsewhere. For example, many ‘Mr Fluffy’ sellers in       their land has become due to limited release of new
                                                                                                                     Belconnen are heading to nearby Gungahlin where           supply in recent years.
                                                                                                                     they can purchase bigger, newer homes.

        The market has improved significantly in Canberra,
         with a 7.6% spike in property values over the first
         eight months of the year compared to a decline of
                                                                                                                          Median House Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              $607,000
                                                                                                                          Median Apartment Price

                -0.9% for the same period in 2015*.
                                                                                                                                                                               $572,000

                                                                                                                        $545,000

                                                                                                                        $415,000                                               $419,900                                        $415,000

Underpinning this growth is an undersupply of houses        gearing or capital gains; and a tax cut that would
for sale; greater stability in Federal Government           benefit a large proportion of residents, who are among
following many years of unrest; and a very low unem-        the highest paid workers in the country.
ployment rate of just 3.6% ^, boosted by the lifting of a
two-year hiring freeze in the public service in mid-2015.   Opens have been well-attended and auction
                                                            clearance rates for houses have remained just shy
There is a distinct new confidence in the marketplace       of 70% for the 12 months to June 2016, according to
following the Federal Election.                             Domain research#.

Canberra is always directly affected by elections because   Interest rate cuts are no longer having a stimulatory
one in three workers are employed in the public service.    effect, with buyers now used to record lows.
Unlike the last Federal Election, there was no threat of    However, young couples and families are leveraging
mass job cuts on either side of politics so the market      rates to stretch their budgets further and buy in
maintained its momentum during the long campaign.           premium locations close to the best schools.

The Coalition’s return meant continuing stability for       The $1 billion ‘Mr Fluffy’ buyback and demolition of
government employees; no changes to negative                1,022 homes across 56 suburbs by 2018 continues and is      2014                                                   2015                                                2016

                                                                                                                     S ource: CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016

McGrath Report 2017                                         36                                                                                                                 Canberra                                                   37
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