CONNECTED & FLOWING A RENEWABLE FUTURE FOR RIVERS, CLIMATE AND PEOPLE
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
THE VISION
CONNECTED
& FLOWING
A RENEWABLE
FUTURE FOR RIVERS,
CLIMATE AND
PEOPLE
C O N N E C T E D A N D F L O W I N G 117
CHAPTER 2 THE VISION
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
1. INTRODUCTION 10
2. THE VISION 14
Lead author IUCN: James Dalton, Reviewers
Jeff Opperman, WWF Rebecca Welling The following people
3. THE RENEWABLE REVOLUTION 28
served as reviewers (of this report
Primary co-authors AND THE CHANGING ROLE FOR
University of California, or earlier versions of it) and helped
Joerg Hartmann (independent
Berkeley: Daniel Kammen, strengthen the report. The content HYDROPOWER
consultant), Mark Lambrides
Isa Farrall and positions expressed in this
(TNC), and Juan Pablo Carvallo
report, however, are those of the 4. ACHIEVING LOW CARBON, 38
(University of California, Stanford University and the
authors and do not necessarily
Berkeley) Natural Capital Project: LOW IMACT GRIDS
reflect the perspectives of
Rafael Schmitt
Spatial Analysis those who provided input.
Emily Chapin, TNC University of Manchester:
Bruce Aylward (AMP Insights),
5. GLOBAL BENEFITS FOR RIVERS 56
Julien Harou
Additional Contributors Hannah Baleta (independent OF LOW-COST, LOW CARBON AND
WWF: Chris Weber, Marc University of California, consultant), David Harrison LOW-IMPACT POWER SYSTEMS
Goichot, Jill Hepp, Michele Los Angeles: Alex Wang (independent consultant),
Thieme, Francesca Antonelli, Jessica Penrod (Natel),
Universität Tübingen: 6. MAKING SUSTAINABLE GRIDS 64
Jean-Philippe Denruyter, Stuart Jamie Skinner (IIED)
Christiane Zarfl
Orr, Ying Qiu, Rafael Senga, A REALITY
Please cite as:
and Shannon Wang
Editor Opperman, J., J. Hartmann, M.
The Nature Conservancy: Richard Lee, WWF Lambrides, J.P. Carvallo, E. Chapin, 7. FISH AND GRIDS: SUSTAINABLE 76
Amy Newsock, Sharon
Report design S. Baruch-Mordo, B. Eyler, M. POWER FOR THE MEKONG REGION
Baruch-Mordo, Joe Kiesecker, Goichot, J. Harou, J. Hepp, D.
Lou Clements
Jorge Gastelumendi, Jonathan Kammen, J. Kiesecker, A. Newsock,
Higgins, Brooke Atwell and Figure design 8. CONCLUSIONS 96
© Carlos Goulart / TNC Photo Contest 2018
R. Schmitt, M. Thieme, A. Wang,
Justus Raepple Glyn Williams and C. Weber, 2019. Connected
The Stimson Center: Copy Editor and flowing: a renewable future for ANNEX 102
Brian Eyler, Courtney Andrew Myers rivers, climate and people. WWF
Weatherby and The Nature Conservancy,
Washington, DC
ISBN:
118 C O978-2-940529-94-0
NNEC TED AND FLOWING CONNEC TED AND FLOWING 1
THE VISION
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Due to the renewable revolution, power systems can
now be low carbon, low cost, and low impact on rivers,
the environment and people
The world faces multiple critical and intertwined storage and low-impact hydropower. For the 2. L
ow cost. Power systems that are low carbon In practice, we believe that electricity systems
challenges: expanding electricity generation to meet first time, there are viable renewable alternatives and low impact must also meet countries’ power that meet these principles will increasingly be
the needs of growing economies and to supply power to the high-impact hydropower dams that are demands with electricity that is reliable and those that avoid the significant tradeoffs associated
to the more than one billion people who currently currently proposed on many of the world’s remaining affordable. Furthermore, social equity demands with high-impact hydropower projects. However,
lack access while reducing greenhouse gas emissions free-flowing rivers – a development path that could that energy investments ensure access to the more avoiding those tradeoffs and impacts does not
to nearly zero by 2050 – all while maintaining the trigger a range of negative impacts, including than one billion people that still lack access to equate to an end to hydropower development, but
integrity of our world’s ecosystems, including displacement of communities, and the loss of reliable electricity. In fact, the short construction to a significant shift in its role and competitive niche.
conserving the planet’s remaining free-flowing rivers. productive freshwater fisheries and much of the times, versatility, and low costs of new renewables Hydropower projects provide a range of services
sediment needed to keep economically crucial allow countries to accelerate access to electricity. that can help balance power systems and facilitate
Today, the world has a great opportunity to solve deltas above the rising seas. the integration of a higher share of wind and solar
these challenges, made possible by the renewable 3. Low impact. Nearly all options for producing
energy have some negative impacts on generation — both through the reoperation of
revolution — featuring rapidly falling costs for wind This report describes how the world can tackle these
communities and the environment. But, options existing hydropower and through strategically
and solar generation and storage technologies, intertwined challenges and support global efforts to
for low-impact systems are becoming increasingly designed new projects, including off-channel
and significant advancements in energy efficiency, achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
feasible and various best practices can be applied pumped storage, that avoid the significant
and the targets under the Paris Agreement, by moving
demand side management, and grid management. tradeoffs associated with past development.
rapidly toward electricity systems that are: to further reduce impacts, particularly on the
In addition, great progress has been made on These carefully planned projects will provide lower
world’s remaining free flowing rivers.
the accessibility of tools that allow governments risk and higher value to investors and developers,
1. Low carbon. The imperative to decarbonize
to strategically plan power systems so that the Achieving this vision will not happen by pre-judging while delivering greater overall values to countries
energy systems, and economies in general,
expansion and operation of projects can maximize what technologies and mixes of energy generation and communities.
becomes increasingly clear with each passing
synergies and minimize negative impacts. should be deployed. Decisions about future electricity
year. A stable climate – and prosperous societies The urgent need to expand access to energy
systems should follow a process to identify options
We can now envision a future in which electricity and healthy ecosystems – requires that electricity while decarbonizing power systems
systems are accessible, affordable and powering systems move rapidly to being low carbon and that are consistent with the principles above. Any mix
To avoid exceeding a global temperature rise above
© Billy Huynh / TNC Photo Contest 2018
efficient and that some sectors, such as heating of sources that can meet those principles (low cost,
economies with a more sustainable mix of renewable
low carbon and low impact) will work for people, 1.5ºC, the IPCC reports that the world will need to
energy technologies — including solar, wind, and transportation, be electrified.
nature and the climate. cut global CO2 emissions by approximately 40-50%
2 CONNEC TED AND FLOWING CONNEC TED AND FLOWING 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Recent growth in renewables by type
by 2030 and economies will need to become 500
KEY POINTS nearly carbon free by 2050. Since electricity
■ Hydropower ■ Wind ■ Solar
generation is a leading source of GHG emissions,
•
The costs of wind, solar, and battery decarbonization of power systems is critical to 400
Capacity added (GW)
storage have dropped dramatically in achieve the necessary emissions reductions,
recent years – and are continuing to fall. especially as electricity generation must increase
300
Renewable sources represented two-thirds to provide power to the more than one billion ES1. Recent
of new global power generation capacity people around the world who still lack access. growth in
in 2018, led by wind and solar. This will require a rapid transition away from fossil 200 renewables
fuels (coal, natural gas and oil) to low-carbon by type
•
The global technical potential of utility-
renewables such as wind, solar, geothermal and
scale, low-impact wind and solar is 17 100 Global renewable
hydropower. While hydropower has been the
times the renewable energy targets that power capacity
dominant source of renewable generation so far, additions, 2004-2023
countries have committed to under the
projections of how the world can meet future 0 (from IEA 2017).2
Paris Agreement, and well distributed. 2004–2008 2009–2013 2014-2018 2019–2023
electricity demand while also achieving climate
This should allow almost all countries
to achieve power systems that are low
goals include a massive increase in the proportion
carbon, low cost, and low impact on social of wind and solar, with these sources expected
and environmental resources. to attain a share of generation comparable to, or
exceeding, that of hydropower.
•
Lowering the total number of new The renewable revolution can increase renewable energy, described in case studies
hydropower dams because of greater The renewable revolution is rapidly conservation of free-flowing rivers by below. But ensuring that this substitution leads to
investment in wind and solar can changing the landscape of power systems delivering low cost, low carbon, low electricity systems that are as low impact as possible
reduce negative impacts on rivers and impact grids requires the widespread availability of wind and
avoid fragmenting tens to hundreds of The costs for a range of renewable energy solar power in areas with low impacts on social
thousands of kilometers of free-flowing sources have dropped dramatically in the past Projections vary widely of how much hydropower
and environmental resources. The global technical
rivers globally, depending on how decade. Costs for solar and wind are now will be developed to meet the 2050 power demand potential of low-impact utility-scale wind and solar
development unfolds within river basins. approaching US$0.05/kWh – comparable to the and achieve climate objectives. For example, from (on converted lands such as agriculture, degraded
low end of fossil fuel cost range and the average a current capacity baseline of approximately 1,200 land, and rooftops) is 17 times the renewable
•
Planning tools that integrate capacity GW, IPCC scenarios that limit global temperatures to
costs of hydropower.1 And costs are projected energy targets that countries have committed to
expansion models with models to guide
to decline even further. below a rise of 1.5ºC have median 2050 projection under the Paris Agreement, and well distributed
low-impact siting of new renewables can
for global hydropower of 1,820 GW – a level that (Figure ES3)5. This should allow almost all countries to
help decision makers design systems that Because of these rapid changes in relative
would result in an additional 190,000 kilometers of achieve power systems that are low carbon, low cost,
are low carbon, low cost and low impact. costs in recent years, the growth of power
river channel being impacted by fragmentation, and low impact.
generation is now driven by investments in new
• The renewable energy revolution does not with more than 70% of the impact occurring in
solar and wind capacity (Figure ES1). Capacity Case studies of low carbon, low cost and low
signal an end to hydropower development, river basins with the greatest fish harvest and the
additions of hydropower have been declining impact grids
but a significant shift in its role. Certain highest richness of fish species3.
since 2013, due not only to the falling costs of
types of hydropower are becoming A number of recent studies have demonstrated the
competing technologies, but also to a broader However, the trends in cost and levels of investment
less competitive and the rise of reliable economic and technical feasibility of grids that are
set of challenges, including high-profile for hydropower compared to other renewable
alternatives should diminish the need for low carbon with expansion dominated by renewables.
cancellations, growing hydrological risks, cost technologies, and the potential to retrofit existing
high-impact dams. However, low-impact We further explored the potential of low cost, low
and schedule over-runs, technical challenges, dams and re-operate cascades — along with lower
hydropower plants, which provide storage carbon grids to be low impact on rivers by integrating
and increasing social resistance. projections for hydropower in 2050 such as that of
capabilities and flexibility, could become capacity expansion models for two countries, Chile
Teske (1,523 GW)4 — suggest that future hydropower
an important component of the world’s Certain types of hydropower are becoming less and Uganda, with basic landscape modeling of the
development may be lower. A lower level of
transition to deploying considerably more competitive, with the rise of reliable alternatives environmental values of rivers.
development could reduce impacts by 65,000 km.
intermittent renewable energies. diminishing the need for high-impact dams.
With strategic system planning, impacts could be • In Uganda, a scenario that avoided future
•
By capitalizing on economic and financial However, low-impact hydropower plants that
reduced a further 100,000 km - in total, a nearly 90% hydropower dams within national parks had no
trends as well as improved technologies, provide storage capabilities and flexibility have
reduction in impact on river fragmentation (Figure impacts on power system costs compared to the
we can secure a brighter future for people a strong role to play in backing up variable
ES2) – securing the diverse benefits that healthy reference, or business as usual (BAU), scenario;
and nature with power systems that are sources, such as solar and wind, and providing
rivers provide to people and nature. solar PV and storage would replace the two
low carbon, low cost and low impact on the ancillary services that contribute to grid
hydropower plants within a national park that are
rivers and other ecosystems. stability. Low impact hydropower could still be an The ability to substitute wind and solar for a portion
selected in the reference scenario.
important component of the world’s transition to of hydropower development hinges on the improving
deploying considerably more intermittent competitiveness of those technologies and the • In Chile, the reference (BAU) scenario included
renewable energies. ability of grids to incorporate high levels of variable both coal and a significant expansion of
4 CONNEC TED AND FLOWING CONNEC TED AND FLOWING 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Global futureexpansion
ES2. Hydropower hydro andandimpact
fragmentation
on rivers ES3. Global map of potential hydropower and potential generation
from low-impact wind and solar
200,000
Global future hydro and fragmentation
by
180,000
impacted
200,000 U
160,000 BA
Global future hydro and fragmentation
by
180,000 om fr
impacted
fragmentation (km)(km)
ct
140,000
160,000 pa
200,000 Im
channels
Additional river channels impacted by
140,000
120,000
fragmentation
180,000 Minimum
river channels
impact
120,000 Range of corresponds
160,000
100,000
100,000
potential to IEA 2014
fragmentation (km)
140,000 improvement
through
80,000
80,000
river
120,000 planning
60,000 Range of
100,000
60,000
Additional
impact
Additional
40,000 corresponds
80,000 to Teske Minimum
40,000
20,000
60,000
et al 2018
possible
impact
0
20,000
1450
40,000
1550 1650 1750 1850 Figure ES3. The ratio of
20,000 potential generation from
0 Level of hydropower development in 2050 Global Capacity (GW)
0 low-impact wind and solar
■ Range1450
of potential
1450 improvement1550
through 1650 1650
1550 system planning ■ Minimum 1750
kilometers impacted
1750 1850 1850 to generation from potential
hydropower dams7.
Level ofofhydropower
Level development
hydropower development in 2050
in 2050 Global Global
Capacity (GW) Capacity (GW) Hydropower dams
Under construction Potential
■ Range of potential improvement through system planning ■ Minimum kilometers impacted
■ Range of potential improvement through system planning ■ Minimum kilometers impacted Ratio of potential generation from low-impact
wind and solar to generation from proposed
hydropower dams
No data on potential 10.1–100.0
hydropower 100.1–1000.0
Figure ES2. Potential improved outcomes for global rivers through impacts and conflicts, contributing to conservation 1000
substitution of other technologies for hydropower (moving from 1.1–10.0
right to left) and through system planning to optimize between
and facilitating faster permitting and development.
generation and environmental performance within river basins (blue
shaded area within any given level of development). The top of the
What the world needs to do to achieve the
combined bar represents the level of impact from business-as-usual
development of hydropower dams for a given total level of global low carbon, low cost and low impact vision BOX ES-1
hydropower capacity by 2050 and the top of the red bar represents
SUSTAINABLE POWER SYSTEMS FOR
the minimum impact possible at that level of development i (From Accelerating the renewables transition requires
Opperman et al. 2015 based on dam database from Zarfl et al. 2015)6.
THE MEKONG RIVER BASIN
the removal of barriers, including policy and
regulatory reforms, redirecting financial flows
towards new renewables, and technological
innovation. There are successful examples for all The Mekong River supports the world’s business-as-usual projections. The integration
hydropower. Low carbon scenarios that also
of these that can be emulated by other countries. most productive freshwater fishery and of capacity expansion models with models to
avoided developing new dams on Chile’s
Many governments need to modernize their delivers sediments that maintain the physical guide low-impact hydropower siting provided
remaining free-flowing rivers had costs that were integrity and productive ecosystems of the strong evidence that the Mekong region can
energy-sector policies to take full advantage of the
only 1.5–2% higher than the reference scenario, Mekong Delta, a crucial part of Vietnam’s develop low carbon, low cost power systems that
renewable revolution, for example by committing
with a carbon intensity that was one-quarter that economy and regional food security, and do not require dams on the mainstem or on the
to renewable energy targets and/or introducing
of the reference scenario. home to 21 million people. few remaining free-flowing major tributaries –
targeted auctions for renewables to identify
least-cost options. and that any additional hydropower can be sited
These examples demonstrate how the integration Hydropower has been a primary source of so as to have minimal impact on fisheries and
of capacity expansion models with landscape Financing of new renewables not only needs to electricity for Mekong countries, but studies show sediment per unit of hydropower produced.
models to guide siting can reduce the impacts be scaled up dramatically, it also needs to include that a continuation of the current hydropower
funding for system planning, via both domestic Although there are signs that the renewable
from hydropower within power systems. A range trajectory would cause the loss of nearly half of
budgets but also through support from international revolution is taking hold in the Mekong region,
of other best practices can be used to further migratory fish biomass. Deprived of sediment
financial institutions. The integration of capacity decisions in the next few years on highly
minimize impacts from hydropower generation, trapped behind dams and subject to other
expansion models with models to guide siting of impactful dams such as Sambor could preclude
including rehabilitating and retrofitting existing pressures, the delta could be more than half
new renewables can help decision makers more balanced outcomes. Coordinated and
hydropower dams, re-operating dams and cascades, underwater by the end of this century.
understand tradeoffs of different options and proactive policies and planning are needed to
and adding turbines to non-powered dams. Overall,
Recent studies suggest that the region could ensure that countries pursue a more
incorporation of the mitigation hierarchy into regional identify those options that perform well across a
meet future power demand with considerably sustainable energy path.
planning for new renewable projects can reduce range of objectives (see Box ES-1).
lower development of hydropower than
i Note that the bar for 1,850 GW is depicted as having no range of potential improvement
from system planning, but that is because that level of development requires building all the
dams in the database and thus we can’t model different configurations
6 CONNEC TED AND FLOWING CONNEC TED AND FLOWING 7
THE VISION
CONCLUSION
Within a very short time, the vision of low-cost, ENDNOTES
low-carbon, and low-impact power systems has IRENA (2019): “Renewable Capacity
1
Statistics 2019.” International Renewable
become a real possibility. Much of the renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Abu Dhabi.
energy revolution is already underway. Although Retrieved from: https://www.irena.
org/publications/2019/Mar/Capacity-
this transition received some initial momentum Statistics-2019
2
IEA (2017): “Solar leads the charge in BOX ES-2
from policies, it is now driven as much by another record year for renewables.”
KEY CONTRIBUTIONS
Retrieved from: https://www.iea.org/
technological innovation and marketplace renewables2017/
competition as by policy8.
TO A SUSTAINABLE
3
Opperman, J., Grill, G. and Hartmann,
J., (2015). The Power of Rivers: Finding
We can not only envision a future where electricity
balance between energy and conservation
in hydropower development. Washington, ENERGY FUTURE
systems are accessible, affordable and powering DC: The Nature Conservancy.
4
Teske, Sven., (2019): Achieving the Paris
economies with a mix of renewable energy Climate Agreement Goals. Springer.
• Governments can (1) implement
5
Baruch-Mordo,
S., Kiesecker, J., Kennedy,
technologies — including solar, wind, storage and C.M., Oakleaf, J.R. and Opperman, J.J., system-scale planning and licensing
(2018): From Paris to practice: sustainable
low-impact hydropower—we can now build that implementation of renewable energy focused on integrated power systems
future. Growing electricity demands and climate goals. Environmental Research Letters.
to identify and develop those that are
6
Opperman
et al. 2015 (see note 3); Zarfl,
objectives can be achieved while avoiding the Christiane, Alexander Lumsdon, Jürgen low cost, low carbon and low impact.
Berlekamp (2015): A global boom in
negative impacts on the world’s remaining free- hydropower dam construction. Aquatic Through this, countries can reassess plans
flowing rivers posed by high-impact hydropower. Sciences 77 (1): 161-170.
for hydropower to factor in the full value
7
Baruch-Mordo,
et al. 2018 (see note 5);
Achieving the vision will require policy, financial,
Zarfl et al. 2015 (see note 6). of rivers and consider the availability of
8
IRENA
(2019). Innovation landscape for a
and technical innovations across all countries. renewable-powered future. International lower impact alternatives; and (2) create
Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.
Fortunately, at this stage the feasibility of low- competitive frameworks to accelerate
carbon, low-cost and low-impact systems the renewable energy revolution to help
— and the benefits of achieving them — are them meet international commitments,
becoming clear, creating powerful incentives for most importantly national contributions
different groups of stakeholders (see Box ES-2). to the Paris Agreement, SDGs, and
These stakeholders need to take proactive and CBD targets.
collaborative action to ensure a rapid transition • Developers can facilitate the transition
to more sustainable power systems. If various by supporting more comprehensive
constraints delay the transition by even a decade, upstream planning and by improving
the health and productivity of rivers such as the their own project assessments using
Mekong, Irrawaddy, and Amazon — and dozens sustainability protocols and safeguards.
or hundreds of others around the world — will Developers will benefit from a pipeline
decline due to significant impacts that are both of lower-risk projects and, specifically for
near-permanent and avoidable. It would be a the hydropower sector, from providing
great tragedy if the full environmental benefits of higher-value ancillary services.
the renewable revolution arrived just a few years
too late to safeguard the world’s great rivers • Financial institutions can also support
and all the diverse benefits they provide to more comprehensive planning as a
people and nature. way to develop a pipeline of lower-
risk projects, focusing their lending
To avoid those losses — and seize the profound on opportunities emerging from such
opportunity before us — we hope this report plans, and requiring their clients to
serves as a call to action for collaborative apply ambitious sustainability protocols
acceleration: working together, governments, and safeguards. Making direct funding
financial institutions, the private sector, civil available for such activities can be critical.
society and scientists can build the tools and Financiers will benefit from lower-risk
mechanisms necessary to catalyze rapid delivery projects and, particularly relevant for
of a more sustainable energy future for the development banks, accomplish diverse
climate, rivers and people. objectives, including multiple SDGs.
© Jim Richardson
8 CONNEC TED AND FLOWING CONNEC TED AND FLOWING 9
1 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION
Chapter
INTRODUCTION
The world faces a set of critical and intertwined challenges. We must expand
electricity generation to meet the needs of growing economies and to supply
power to the more than one billion people who currently lack access.
Simultaneously, the climate change crisis requires We can now envision a future in which electricity
us to cut greenhouse gas emissions to nearly zero systems are accessible, affordable and powering
by 2050 — a complicated challenge as electricity economies with a more sustainable mix of renewable
production is among today’s leading sources of energy technologies — including solar, wind, storage
greenhouse gases — all while maintaining the and low-impact hydropower. For the first time, there
integrity of our world’s ecosystems, including are viable renewable alternatives to the high-impact
preserving the planet’s remaining free-flowing rivers. hydropower dams that are currently planned on
many of the world’s remaining free-flowing rivers.
Today, the world has a great opportunity to solve
This business-as-usual development path would
these challenges. By capitalizing on economic and
trigger a range of negative impacts, including the
financial trends as well as improved technologies,
displacement of many communities and the loss of
we can secure a brighter future for people and for
productive freshwater fisheries and much of
nature with power systems that are low carbon, low
the sediment needed to keep economically crucial
cost and low impact on rivers and other ecosystems.
deltas above the rising seas. But the renewable
This brighter future has been made possible by revolution means the world no longer needs to
the renewable revolution — featuring rapidly accept such dramatic tradeoffs to meet our growing
falling costs for wind and solar generation and electricity demands and climate objectives.
storage technologies, and significant advancements
© Petar Sabol / TNC Photo Contest 2018
This report explores how a set of planning
in energy efficiency, demand side management,
approaches, and policy and financial mechanisms,
and grid management. Furthermore, great progress
can ensure that the world benefits from the
has been made on the accessibility of tools that
opportunity in the renewable revolution by
allow governments to strategically plan power
accelerating the arrival of power systems that
systems so that the expansion and operation of
are simultaneously low carbon, low cost, and as
projects can maximize synergies and minimize
low impact as possible.
negative impacts.
10 C O N N E C T E D A N D F L O W I N G 11
11
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
The vision that underpins this report is essentially growth. Systems that are low carbon and low principles (low cost, low carbon and low impact) today and its implications for how the world meets
agnostic to specific energy technologies or sources. impact but do not meet these other expectations will work for people, nature and the climate. In its energy needs are profound: countries can now
It acknowledges that nearly all forms of generation will not be politically acceptable and thus will not practice, we believe that electricity systems that reliably power their economies with systems that
can cause some negative impacts to environmental happen. Furthermore, social equity demands that meet these principles will increasingly be those that are low carbon with far lower impacts than in the
and social resources and that a rapid proliferation of energy investments also ensure access to the more avoid the significant tradeoffs associated with high- past, including a much reduced need to accept the
renewable sources poses its own risks if not planned than one billion people that still lack access to impact hydropower projects, including large-scale tradeoffs that come with the loss of healthy rivers.
and implemented in a coordinated way. Rather reliable electricity. In fact, the short construction relocation of people and major impacts on fisheries,
But economic and technical feasibility does not
than pre-determining or pre-judging options, this times and low costs of new renewables allow deltas and other valuable ecosystems and services.
automatically translate into adoption. Various forms
vision is based on a set of principles. countries to accelerate access to electricity. The rise of credible renewable alternatives will
of friction can slow the transition to power systems
diminish the need for such high-impact dams.
To tackle these intertwined challenges and 3. Low impact. Nearly all common options for that are both low carbon and low impact. If these
support global efforts to achieve the Sustainable producing energy have some negative impacts However, avoiding those tradeoffs and impacts constraints delay this transition by even a decade, the
Development Goals (SDGs) and the targets under on environmental and social resources. But, does not equate to an end to hydropower health and productivity of rivers such as the Mekong,
the Paris Climate Agreement, the world must move increasingly, we know the best practices that development, but to a significant shift in its role Irrawaddy, and Amazon — and dozens or hundreds
toward electricity systems that are: can reduce these impacts. This vision holds that and competitive niche. Hydropower projects of others around the world — will decline due to
politically viable, low-carbon energy systems provide a range of services that can help balance significant impacts that are both near-permanent
1. Low carbon. should be as low impact as possible. This can power systems and facilitate the integration of a and avoidable. It would be a great tragedy if the full
The imperative to decarbonize energy systems, be accomplished by fully evaluating the diverse higher share of wind and solar generation — both environmental benefits of the renewable revolution
and economies in general, becomes increasingly options for meeting energy needs and quantifying through the reoperation of existing hydropower and arrived just a few years too late to safeguard the
clear with each passing year. A stable climate — the associated tradeoffs to inform development strategically designed new projects, including off- world’s great rivers and all the diverse benefits they
and prosperous societies and healthy ecosystems decisions. Then, best practices can be applied channel pumped storage, that avoid the significant provide to people and nature.
— requires that electricity systems move rapidly to minimize the impacts associated with the tradeoffs associated with past development. These
To avoid those losses — and seize the profound
to being low carbon and efficient and that selected option. carefully planned projects will provide lower risk
opportunity before us — we hope this report serves
some sectors, such as heating and light-duty and higher value to investors and developers,
Achieving this vision will not happen by as a call to action for collaborative acceleration:
transportation, be electrified, a transition that while delivering greater overall values to countries
pre-judging what technologies and mixes of energy working together, governments, financial institutions,
will become more feasible as the cost of electric and communities.
generation should be deployed. Decisions about the private sector, civil society and scientists can
power declines.
future electricity systems should follow a process to A primary theme of this report is that the renewable build the tools and mechanisms necessary to
2. L
ow cost. This vision requires systems that are identify options that are consistent with the principles revolution is not some techno-optimist ideal catalyze rapid delivery of a more sustainable future
affordable, reliable and meet needs for economic above. Any mix of sources that can meet those shimmering in the hazy future. It is happening for energy, rivers and people.
REPORT STRUCTURE
In Chapter 2 we lay out this vision We conclude by discussing how to the best practices available for rivers, ranges from tens to In Chapter 7 we synthesize and civil society to accelerate the
and define what we mean by all of these technologies interact, to guide the siting, design and hundreds of thousands of kilometers all the various themes of the arrival of the renewable revolution.
systems that are low carbon, low including the new roles and operation of projects and systems of river channels. report—from technological
Chapter 8 provides a brief
cost and low impact and describe business models for hydropower to minimize impacts on social and improvements to planning and
Chapter 6. The first five chapters summary and conclusion,
the urgent need to meet those that will help enable the renewable environmental values. policy—and ground them in one
make the case that this vision is including a review of the roles and
principles in an integrated way. revolution. place: the Mekong River basin,
Chapter 5 explores the global possible and is already happening opportunities for various entities
a region that, perhaps more than
In Chapter 3 we illustrate why this Chapter 4 shows how the different potential for improved outcomes in some parts of the world. However, — including governments, financial
vision is attainable. The chapter for rivers by achieving this vision. the dramatic acceleration that will any other, illustrates the diverse
technologies fit together within institutions and developers —
reviews the rapidly evolving power systems, synthesizing The renewable revolution makes be necessary to meet the world’s values that could be lost if to accelerate the renewable
landscape for different energy modeling and real-world case new pathways possible and growing demand for electricity, more-sustainable energy revolution and the benefits that
technologies and summarizes the studies to demonstrate the integrated planning can identify the while keeping climate change development pathways are not will accrue to them by doing so.
renewable revolution, including feasibility of planning for and mix of generation sources that can below 1.5° C and helping to achieve found. We show that a more-
its drivers and the opportunities operating grids that are affordable, be low carbon, low cost and low the SDGs will require overcoming sustainable path is possible
it makes possible. We discuss the efficient, reliable, low carbon and impact. Best practices in planning key existing and future barriers. for the Mekong region, but
implications for the hydropower low impact. Because grids are and siting can minimize the impacts In Chapter 6 we recommend a set that will require concerted and
industry and the ways in which made up of generation sources from the expansion of new projects. of regulatory and policy reforms collaborative action across
it must adapt to meet broader that must be placed somewhere The benefit of achieving this vision, and financial solutions that would governments, financial
societal goals and expectations. on the landscape, we then turn in terms of improved outcomes enable this vision. institutions, the private sector
12 C O N N E C T E D A N D F L O W I N G C O N N E C T E D A N D F L O W I N G 13
2 CHAPTER 2 THE VISION
Chapter
THE
VISION
© Nick Hall
14 C O N N E C T E D A N D F L O W I N G
THE VISION
Chapter 2
So, how do we meet the growing global demand for affordable electricity
to power economies and lift people out of poverty, while drastically reducing
carbon emissions and also safeguarding rivers and the abundant and
diverse resources and services they provide to society?
The renewable revolution — enabled by the
KEY POINTS dramatic improvements in wind and solar
generation including a steep drop in cost that
• This report describes a vision for how greatly increases their competitiveness — coupled
the renewable energy revolution will with best practices for integrated energy planning,
enable power systems that are low provide an unprecedented opportunity to tackle
carbon, low cost, and low impact. these intertwined challenges.
•
Low carbon: Although electricity is a This report outlines a vision for how the world
leading source of greenhouse gases can make simultaneous progress on increasing
— and demand is projected to double affordable electricity generation, reducing
by 2050 — meeting climate objectives emissions, and safeguarding rivers and terrestrial
requires the world to cut emissions by habitats. The vision is essentially agnostic about
approximately 40-50% by 2030 and what technologies should be deployed but, rather,
economies will need to become nearly rests on a set of principles. To succeed, the world
carbon free by 2050. must move toward electricity systems that are:
•
Low cost: Power systems meeting 1. Low carbon due to the urgent need to reduce To take just a few examples, under a rise of 1.5ºC, 14% remain within lower ranges of climate change, with
criteria of low carbon and low impact emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to of the world’s population is projected to be exposed faster rates of emissions decline posing greater social
also need to meet the expectations of maintain a stable climate and safeguard to extreme heat waves while 37% would be exposed and economic challenges. Furthermore, delays in
citizens, businesses, and governments economies and ecosystems; under a 2ºC rise — a difference measured in billions emission reductions makes it more likely that even
for electricity that is reliable and of people. The number of people living in regions scenarios that ultimately can achieve the 1.5ºC goal
2. Low cost: affordable, reliable, and equitable,
affordable (i.e., cost competitive). with water stress is projected to be 50% greater under will require some duration of overshoot — a period
satisfying the world’s growing demand for
This will enable access for those who a 2ºC rise, compared to 1.5ºC. The Fourth National of time, often decades, where global temperature
electricity, including providing for the more than
currently lack reliable electricity Climate Assessment, issued by 13 agencies of the exceeds a 1.5ºC rise before declining back to that
one billion people that currently lack access —
(approximately a billion people U.S. government, estimated that, without significant target, increasing the risk of various climate-related
and therefore meeting the basic requirements
worldwide). progress on reducing emissions, climate change will impacts on people, economies and ecosystems. The
for political viability; and
•
Low impact: Although nearly all cost the U.S. economy US$500 billion per year by the concept of overshoot also highlights that delays in
3. As low impact as possible, given that end of the century, equivalent to 10% of the U.S. Gross reducing emissions will increase the need for negative
forms of generation have some
nearly all forms of electricity generation have Domestic Product2. emissions, such as the removal of carbon through
environmental and social impacts, a
range of best practices can identify
some unavoidable impacts and tradeoffs. agriculture, forestry and other land-use (AFOLU)
Underscoring the urgency of action, the IPCC also
low-impact sites and mitigate and concludes that, to avoid exceeding 1.5ºC, the world
sectors or through bioenergy with carbon capture
compensate for residual impacts on 2.1 LOW CARBON will need to cut emissions by approximately 40-50%
and storage (BECCS)3.
ecosystems and communities.
The imperative to reduce global GHG emissions © Nicolas Axelrod / Ruom / WWF-Greater Mekong by 2030, just over a decade from now, and energy Because electricity generation represents
is becoming more obvious and urgent with systems and economies will need to become nearly approximately one quarter of global GHG emissions,
each passing year, underscored by two reports carbon free by 2050. the decarbonization of power systems is one of
released in late 2018. In their special report, Global the primary changes needed to achieve necessary
Beyond specific thresholds, the message is clear:
Warming of 1.5ºC1, the Intergovernmental Panel emissions reductions4. This will require a rapid
greater warming will lead to greater impacts and thus
on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasized that the transition away from fossil fuels (coal, natural gas
countries need to reduce emissions at a fast pace —
negative impacts of climate change on economies and oil) to low-carbon renewables such as wind,
and begin that process as soon as possible (Figure 2.1).
and ecosystems increase considerably if warming solar, geothermal and hydropower. Illustrating the
Any delay in emissions reductions increases the rate
exceeds 1.5ºC and approaches or surpasses 2ºC. scale of the challenge: fossil fuels are today’s leading
at which they will need to be cut later for the world to
16 C O N N E C T E D A N D F L O W I N G C O N N E C T E D A N D F L O W I N G 17CHAPTER 2 THE VISION
Breakdown
2.1.
Breakdown of
of contributions
Breakdown
Breakdown
Breakdown
Breakdown of
contributions
of
of to
to global
contributions
ofcontributions
contributions
contributionsto
global
to
to net
global
toglobal
global
globalCO
net
net net
CO
net
net emissions
CO2
22CO
CO
emissions
CO in
in four
emissions
emissions
emissions
emissions in
four
in
in illustrative
four
infour
four
four
illustrative model
illustrative
illustrative
illustrative
illustrative
model pathways
model
model
model
model pathways
pathways
pathways
pathways
pathways
Breakdown of contributions to global net CO 22 emissions in four illustrative model pathways
22
Billion
BillionBillion
tonnes
Billion
Billion
Billion
tonnes tonnes
CO
CO22 per
tonnes
tonnes
tonnes CO
CO
per
CO
CO year
per
per(GtCO
year
2per
per year
year
(GtCO
year (GtCO
22/yr)
year(GtCO
(GtCO
(GtCO /yr)
/yr) 2 /yr)
22/yr)
/yr) Fossil
Fossil■fuel
Fossil
Fossil
fuel and
Fossil
Fossil
and fuel
fuelindustry
fuel
fuel and
industry
and
and
and industry
AFOLU
industry
industry
industry AFOLU
BECCS
■AFOLU
AFOLU
AFOLU
AFOLU
BECCS■ BECCS
BECCS
BECCS
BECCS
222 2
P1
P1 P1 P2 P2 P3 P3 P4 P4
40 40P1P1
P1 40 P2 40P2P2
P2 40 P3 40P3P3
P3 40 P4 40P4P4
P4
40 4040
40 40 4040
40 40 4040
40 40 4040
40
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
20 2020
20 20 2020
20 20 2020
20 20 2020
20
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00
More than one billion
-20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 people lack access to
-20 -20
-20
-20 -20 -20 -20
-20 -20 -20 -20
-20 -20 -20-20
-20
2020 2020 2060 2060 2100 21002020 2020 2060 2060 2100 21002020 2020 2060 2060 2100 21002020 2020 2060 2060 2100 2100 electricity, mostly in
2020 2020
2020
2020 2060 2060
2060
2060 2100 2100
2100
21002020 2020
2020
2020 2060 2060
2060
2060 2100 2100
2100
21002020 2020
2020
2020 2060 2060
2060
2060 2100 2100
2100
21002020 2020
2020
2020 2060 2060
2060
2060 2100 2100
2100
2100
Africa, as indicated by
P1:AAscenario AA scenario
in
inwhich insocial,
which social, P2:AAscenario AA scenario
with
withaawithbroad
with abroad
focus
broad focus onAAmiddle-of-the-road
AA middle-of-the-road scenario scenarioP4:AAresource- AA resource-
and
andenergy-intensive
P1: P1: and energy-intensive
social, P2: P2: P3: P3: P4: P4: this image of nighttime
scenario
P1:P1:
P1: AA scenario
scenario
scenario
which inin
in
which
social,
which
which social,
social, scenario
P2:
P2:AA
P2: scenario
scenario
scenario broad
with
with aa afocus
broad
broadfocus
focus
focusP3: middle-of-the-road
P3:
P3:
P3:AA middle-of-the-road
middle-of-the-road
middle-of-the-road scenario scenario
scenario
scenario resource-
P4:
P4:
P4: AA resource-
resource-
resource- energy-intensive
and
and
and energy-intensive
energy-intensive
energy-intensive
business business
and
andtechnological
and technological on
onsustainability
sustainability including
including
energyenergy in whichin societal
which societal
as well as as well as scenarioscenario
in whichin economic
which economicgrowth growth
business
business
business
business technological
andand
and technological
technological
technological sustainability
onon
on
sustainability
sustainability
sustainability
including
including
including
including
energy energy
energy
energy in which in
inin which
which
societal
which societal
societal
societal
as wellasas as well
well
well as
asas scenario
scenario
scenario
scenario
in which ininin
which
economic
which
which economic
economic
economic
growth growth
growth
growth lighting. SDG7 is
innovations innovations
result in result
lower inenergy
lower energyintensity, intensity,
human development,
human development, technological
technological
development development and globalization
and globalization
lead to widespread
lead to widespread
innovations
innovations
innovations
innovations
result result
inresult
result
lower inin in
lower
energy
lower
lower energy
energy
energyintensity,
intensity,
intensity,
intensity,
humanhuman human
development,
human development,
development,
development, technological technological
technological
technological
development
development
development
development and globalization and
and
and globalization
globalization
globalization
lead tolead lead
widespread
lead toto
to
widespread
widespread
widespread focused on ensuring
demand demand
up
upto to2050up to
while
2050 living
while living
livingeconomic economic
convergence convergence
and and follows historical
follows historical
patterns. patterns. adoption adoption
of
ofgreenhouse-gas-
of greenhouse-gas-inten-
demand demand
demand
demand up
2050
up
uptototo
while
2050
2050
2050 while
living
while
while living
living economiceconomic
economic
economic
convergence
convergence
convergence
convergence
and and and
and followsfollows
follows
historical
follows historical
historical
historical
patterns. patterns.
patterns.
patterns. adoption
adoption
adoption
adoptiongreenhouse-gas-
ofofofgreenhouse-gas-
greenhouse-gas-
greenhouse-gas-
standards standards
rise,
rise,especially
rise, especially
ininthe in the
theinternational
international
cooperation,cooperation,
as
aswell as
as well
Emissions
as Emissions
reductions reductions
are
aremainly are mainly intensivesive
lifestyles,
lifestyles, including
including highhighhigh
demand universal access to
standards
standards
standards
standards especially
rise,
rise,
rise,especially
especially
especiallythe inin in
the
the international
international
international
international
cooperation,
cooperation,
cooperation,
cooperation, wellas
as
as
well
well
well
as
Emissions
as
as Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
reductions
reductions
reductions
reductions mainly
are
are
aremainly
mainly
mainly intensive
intensive
intensive
intensive
lifestyles,
lifestyles,
lifestyles,
lifestyles,
includingincluding
including
including
high high
high
global South.
global AA
South.
downsized AA downsizedenergy energy
shifts
shiftstowards
shifts towards
sustainable sustainable
and and
and achieved achieved
by
bychangingby changing
the
theway the
in way in
demand for
for
fortransportation
transportation fuels
fuels
fuelsand
and livestock affordable and
globalglobal
South.
global
global South.
South.
South.
downsized
AA downsized
downsized
downsized
energy energy
energy
energy shifts
towards
shifts
shifts towards
towards
towards
sustainable
sustainable
sustainable
sustainable
and and and achieved
achieved
achieved
achieved
changing
byby
by changing
changing
changing waythe
the
the
inway
way
wayinin
in
demanddemand
demand
demand transportation
for
for
for transportation
transportation
transportation and
fuels
fuels
fuels
and
and
and
system enables
system enables
rapid decarboniza-
rapid decarboniza- healthy healthy
consumption consumption
patterns, patterns, which energy
which and
energyproducts
and products
are are livestockproducts.
products. Emissions
Emissions reductions are
system system
system
enables
system enables
enables
enables
rapid rapid
decarboniza-
rapid
rapid decarboniza-
decarboniza-
decarboniza- healthy healthy
healthy
healthy
consumption
consumption
consumption
consumption
patterns,patterns,
patterns,
patterns, whichwhich which
energy
which energy
energy
energy
and products
and and
and products
products
products
are are arelivestock
are livestock
livestock
livestock
products. products.
products.
products.
Emissions Emissions
Emissions
Emissions clean energy.
tion of energy
tion of supply.
energy Afforestation
supply. Afforestationlow-carbon low-carbon
technology technology
innovation, innovation,
produced, produced,
and to a and
lesserto adegree
lesser degreereductions
mainlyare mainly
achieved achieved
through technologi-
tion oftion
energy
tion
tion ofof
of
energy
energy
supply.
energy supply.
supply.
Afforestation
supply. Afforestation
Afforestation
Afforestation low-carbon
low-carbon
low-carbon
low-carbon
technology
technology
technology
technology
innovation,
innovation,
innovation,
innovation,
produced,
produced,
produced,
produced,
and toand aand
and
lesser
toto
to
a alesser
adegree
lesser
lesser degree
degree
degree reductions
reductions
reductions
reductions
are mainly areare
are
mainly
achieved
mainly
mainly achieved
achieved
achieved
isisthe
theonlyisis the
CDR onlyoption
CDR considered;
option considered; and
andwell-managed
and well-managed
land
landsystemsland systems
systemsby byreductions
by reductions
in
indemand. in demand. through cal
technological
means, makingmeans, strongmaking
usemaking
of CDR
is
only
isthe
the
the
CDR
only
only
only
option
CDR
CDR
CDR option
option
considered;
option considered;
considered;
considered; well-managed
and
and
andwell-managed
well-managed
well-managed systems
land
land
landsystems
systems reductions
byby
byreductions
reductions
reductions
demand.
inin
in
demand.
demand.
demand. through
through
through
through
technological
technological
technological
technological
means, means,
means,
making
means, making
making
neither fossil
neither fuels
fossilwithfuels
CCS withnor CCS norwith
withlimited
with societal
limited societal
acceptability
acceptability strong use
through
of
ofCDR the
ofthrough
deployment the
the of BECCS.
neitherneither
neither
fossil
neither fuels
fossil
fossil
fossilwith
fuels
fuels
fuels
CCS
with
with
with
nor
CCS
CCS
CCS nor
nor
nor limited
with
with
withlimited
limited
societal
limited societal
societal
societal
acceptability
acceptability
acceptability
acceptability strongstrong
use
strong
strong use
CDR
use
use of
through
of
CDR
CDR
CDR through
through
through the
the
the
BECCS are
BECCS used. are used. for BECCS. for BECCS. deployment of BECCS.
BECCS BECCS
BECCS
are
BECCS used.
are
are
areused.
used.
used. for BECCS.
for
for
for
BECCS.
BECCS.
BECCS. deployment
deployment
deployment
deployment
of BECCS. ofof
of
BECCS.
BECCS.
BECCS.
generation sources representing 65% of the total become electrified and are then powered by
2.1. To achieve climate 2.2. Global
Global electricity
electricity and renewables
and renewables mix mix and still dominated by coal. Renewable sources renewable sources of electricity.
objectives — and maintain
stable economies and healthy make up 25% of current global electricity generation,
ecosystems — emissions of dominated by hydropower at nearly 70% (Figure 2.2), Even as demand for electricity increases, most
greenhouse gases need to
decline considerably and which amounts to approximately 16% of total global countries have committed to making the transition
swiftly, beginning within electricity generation. to low-carbon systems through their Nationally
the next few years. Delays
Global Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris
in emission reductions will Renewables Exacerbating the challenge of achieving a rapid
increase the chance of the electricity Climate Agreement and, more generally, through
world overshooting 1.5ºC
transition away from fossil fuels and toward
SDG7. Lowering total energy demand, such as
and would require large-scale renewables, global electricity demand is projected
carbon removal to bring the through technical innovation (e.g., energy efficiency)
to more than double by 2050 (Figure 2.3). Three
global temperature increase and demand-side management, can also play
back below that critical primary factors will contribute to this growth in
threshold. (adapted from
an important role in achieving climate targets. In
■ Hydropower 68% electricity demand.
IPCC 2018 5) the recent set of scenarios modeled in the IPCC
■ Wind 16% ■ Coal 38%
■ Solar 6% Increasing access. Currently 1.1 billion people (14%
• 1.5ºreport, those that include lowering of energy
2.2. Global electricity ■ Gas 23%
■ Other 10% ■ Oil 4% of the world’s population) lack access to reliable demand, arising through social, business and
generation by source and
Geothermal, biofuel,
renewable generation tidal and wave
■ Nuclear 10% electricity, mostly in Africa8. Because this lack of technological innovation, require the least reliance
by source 6 ■ Renewables 25% access is associated with poorer outcomes for on relatively untested carbon removal interventions,
health, education and economic opportunities, such as BECCS — and also entail the lowest
SDG7 challenges the world to “ensure access tradeoffs between climate objectives and other
to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern SDGs (e.g., see P1 in Figure 2.1).
2.3. Global electricity 2.3. Electricity demand by region
demand is projected to Electricity demand by selected region energy for all.”
Countries that already generate a high proportion
more than double by 2050,
with greatest growth in Meeting energy demand as populations and
• of their electricity from renewables provide insights
Asia. Along with expanding Latin America 3.5% economies grow. Growing populations and into potential pathways to achieve climate and
access to electricity,
electrification of sectors economies will contribute to rising electricity energy goals as well as examples of practices
such as transportation
Former Soviet Republics 2.3% demand. With the highest current population and for managing grids with a high share of variable
and heating — crucial for
reducing GHG emissions —
most rapid economic growth rates, Asia will see renewable energy.
contributes to this rise7. ■ 2020 the largest absolute increase in demand while
Africa and Middle East 4.6% Growth to
■ Growth to 2050
2050with CAGR
Eighteen countries are currently renewable
Africa, with the largest projected population
energy dominated, generating 80% or more of
growth9 and rising living standards, will see the
their electricity from those sources. In 14 of these
Asia 3.0% largest proportional increase among continents.
countries, hydropower accounts for more than
• Electrification of other sectors. Most projections 80% of renewable generation. Indeed, in only one
OECD and EU 2.1% of how the world can achieve the necessary of these countries is hydropower not the majority
reductions in GHG emissions require that several
© NASA-GSFC
of renewable generation. In Kenya, geothermal
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 sectors currently powered directly by fossil fuels provides 54% of renewable regeneration and
TWh — including heating and transportation — hydropower provides another 43%.10
18 C O N N E C T E D A N D F L O W I N G C O N N E C T E D A N D F L O W I N G 19You can also read
