PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA, MAY 2019 - Mintel

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PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA, MAY 2019 - Mintel
PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK
CANADA, MAY 2019

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PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA, MAY 2019 - Mintel
REPORT, US - YEAR MONTH                                                                                                                        2

OVERVIEW

What you need to know                                                     essential to growing overall penetration and consequently, growing
                                                                          sales. This Report identifies what the main barriers are, and uses
One of the biggest shifts in eating behaviours in Canada and in           consumer feedback to suggest potential opportunities in the space.
other markets has been the movement towards eating and drinking
plant-based food and beverage alternatives. Does this represent a         Definition
passing fad or a sustained, longer-term shift? Feedback gathered
from Canadians for this Report suggests the latter. The base of           Plant-based proteins are proteins utilized in foods and have been
Canadians who indicate that they are trying to add more plant-            derived from a plant or vegetable source, such as beans/legumes
based substitutes to their diet is relatively broad (28%). That           (eg soy, chickpeas, lentils, peas), nuts (eg almonds, cashews),
said, barriers to eating plant-based foods exist, and the ability of      seeds (eg chia, hemp, sesame) and grains (eg wheat, quinoa), as
companies that operate in this space to overcome them will be             well as others.

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PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019                                                                                                            3

REPORT CONTENT

Overview
     What you need to know
     Definition

Executive Summary
     The issues
          Taste, cost and the perception of being overly-processed are hurdles for plant-based alternatives
          Figure 1: Barriers to usage if plant-based products (% agree), March 2019
          Vegans and vegetarians represent a relatively small slice of the broader consumer base
          Figure 2: Diet preferences, March 2019
          Ethical considerations are a concern for sub-set of consumers
          Figure 3: Select reasons for avoiding animal-based products, by diet type, March 2019
     The opportunities
          Younger women are key to the growth of the segment
          Figure 4: “Trying to add more plant-based substitutes to (their) diet”, women 18-24 vs overall population, March 2019
          Older consumers more aware of their protein intake, but younger consumers looking to add more protein to what they eat and drink
          Figure 5: Attitudes toward protein, by age, March 2019
          Pasta and cereal are the most commonly accepted foods in which to include plant-based protein
          Figure 6: Food categories eaten with plant-based protein, March 2019
     What it means

The Market
 What You Need to Know
     Focus on sustainability is increasingly becoming a driver in food innovation
     Long-term trends show a softening in beef consumption
     Canada’s food guide places focus on protein

 Market Factors
     Focus on sustainability is increasingly becoming a driver in food innovation
          Figure 7: Global population by half-century (2050 forecast)
     Focus on health and weight management to continue
          Figure 8: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2010-14
     Long-term trends show a softening in beef consumption
          Figure 9: Beef, carcass by weight, 1960 - 2017
     Canada food guide increases focus on protein

Key Players
 What You Need to Know
     Meat companies are expanding to being “protein” companies
     Education is needed to make Canadians more comfortable with plant-based meat alternatives
     Plant-based ingredients continue to evolve

 What’s Working?
     Meat companies are expanding to being “protein” companies

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PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019                                                                                             4

 Challenges
     Education is needed to make Canadians more comfortable with plant-based meat alternatives
          Figure 10: Behind the Impossible Burger, Ep. 1: Science for the Plate & Planet, March 2018
     What’s in a name? War or words brewing between different interests

 What’s Next?
     The next burger wars may be plant based
          Figure 11: Beyond Meat They Beyond Burger Plant Based Burger Patties (US), January 2017
          Figure 12: Beyond Meat Beyond Sausage Brat Original Plant-Based Sausage (US), November 2018
     ‘Farm-to-fork’ may evolve from ‘lab-to-fork’
          Figure 13: How to make cell-based meat, December 2016
     Plant-based ingredients continue to evolve
          Figure 14: Oatly! The Original Oat-Milk (US), March 2019
          Figure 15: Purely Elizabeth Dark Chocolate Strawberry Superfood Granola (US), January 2019
          Figure 16: Convitta Linha Premium Shitake Shimeji Handmade Burger (Brazil), February 2019
          Figure 17: Oh Naturel! Quinoa Mushroom Burgers (US), May 2018
          Figure 18: Happy Cheeze Fresh Cheese Alternative from Cashews with Spirulina Chilli (Germany), January 2018
     Plant-based formats also continue to evolve
          Figure 19: Gardein Fish-Free Crabless Cakes (US), April 2019
          Figure 20: Trader Joe’s Vegan Jackfruit Cakes (US), January 2019
          Figure 21: Gardein Meat-Free Chipotle Lime Crispy Fingers (Canada), April 2019
          Figure 22: PC President’s Choice Corn, Carrot & Kale Veggie Bites (Canada), March 2019
          Figure 23: Daiya Mozza Style Slices (Canada), May 2019
          Figure 24: Daiya Deluxe White Cheddar Style Veggie Cheezy Mac (Canada), February 2017
          Figure 25: Healthy Choice Power Bowls Cauliflower Curry (US), September 2018
          Figure 26: Green Giant Fresh Buddha Bowl (US), April 2019
          Figure 27: Lundberg Family Farms Organic Grainspirations Korean Style Chili Rice & Quinoa Bowl (US), October 2018

The Consumer
 What You Need to Know
     A quarter of Canadians want to eat/drink more plant-based food/drinks
     Three main barriers to using plant-based alternatives exist
     Protein is viewed as a critical component in meals
     Plant-based meat is gaining traction with Canadians

 Usage of Plant-Based Foods/Drinks
     A quarter of Canadians want to eat/drink more plant-based food/drinks
          Figure 28: Statements about diets, March 2019
          Figure 29: “I plan to start eating more plant-based alternatives” (% agree), March 2019
     Age and income impact usage of plant-based food substitutes
          Figure 30: “Trying to add more plant-based food to diet”, by age and income, March 2019
          Figure 31: “Trying to add more plant-based food to diet”, by parental status, March 2019
          Figure 32: “Trying to add more plant-based food to diet”, by region, March 2019
          Figure 33: Diet preferences, March 2019
          Figure 34: Trying to add more plant-based food substitutes into diet – by diet preference, March 2019
     Canadians avoid meat for three main reasons
          Figure 35: Reasons for limiting or avoiding animal products, March 2019
          Figure 36: Reasons for limiting or avoiding animal products, by age and gender, March 2019
     Motivations for avoiding animal products vary by diet followed
          Figure 37: Reasons for limiting or avoiding animal products, by diet type, March 2019

 Barriers to Using Plant-Based Alternatives
     Three main barriers to using plant-based alternatives
          Figure 38: Barriers to using plant-base alternatives (% agree), March 2019

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     Over-processing is a concern for most Canadians
         Figure 39: “Plant-based meat alternatives that mimic the taste and texture of real meat are overly-processed” (% agree), women 18-24 vs overall,
         March 2019
     For Canadians, plant-based foods are not just for vegetarians
         Figure 40: “Plant-based foods are just for vegetarian/vegans” (% agree), by age and gender, March 2019

 Attitudes toward Protein
     Protein is viewed as a critical component in meals
         Figure 41: Statements about protein, March 2019
         Figure 42: Statements about protein, by gender, March 2019
         Figure 43: Statements about protein, by age, March 2019
         Figure 44: Statements about protein, by parental status, March 2019
     Plants are well-positioned to meet the protein needs of Canadians
         Figure 45: “Plant-based foods can provide all the protein I need” (% agree), by age, March 2019
         Figure 46: Plant-based protein is healthier than animal protein (% agree), by generation, March 2019
     Nuts are the most common non-meat protein Canadians use
         Figure 47: Type of plant-based protein – any use or interest, March 2019
         Figure 48: Type of plant-based protein, current usage vs interest, March 2019
         Figure 49: Biosteel Sports Nutrition Sport Greens Acai Lemonade High Performance Superfood Powder, March 2019 (Canada)
         Figure 50: Simple Truth Vanilla Flavor Plant Based Protein Powder, February 2019 (US)
         Figure 51: Quorn Southern Fried Bites, November 2018 (UK)
         Figure 52: Dr. Oetker Ristorante Pizza Pesto with Quorn, December 2018 (UK)
         Figure 53: Type of plant-based protein – any use or interest, by age, March 2019
         Figure 54: Type of plant-based protein (select) – any use or interest, 18-44s by gender, March 2019

 Category-Based Opportunities
     Pasta and cereal are the most common foods eaten containing plant-based protein
         Figure 55: Food categories eaten with plant-based protein, March 2019
         Figure 56: Food categories eaten with plant-based protein, by diet type, March 2019
     Plant-based energy bars and drinks proves more popular with young men
         Figure 57: Energy bars and drinks used with plant-based protein, men 18-34 vs overall, March 2019
         Figure 58: KronoBar Performance Snacks Chocolate Avocado Protein Bar, April 2019 (Canada)
         Figure 59: Simply Protein Bar Snacks Lemon Coconut Protein Bar, April 2019 (Canada)
     Plant-based meat is gaining traction with Canadians
         Figure 60: Population segments who are more likely to eat meat substitutes, March 2019

Appendix
     Data sources
         Consumer survey data
         Consumer qualitative research
     Abbreviations and terms
         Abbreviations
         Terms

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DATABOOK CONTENT
Standard demographics you can expect to see tracked in our Databooks:

•   Age and income
•   Age
•   Area
•   Born in Canada
•   Children in household
•   Education
•   Employment
•   Family structure
•   Financial situation
•   Gender and age
•   Gender and marital status
•   Gender
•   Generation
•   Household income
•   Household size
•   Housing situation
•   Language primarily spoken in the home
•   Marital status
•   Mobile device ownership
•   Number of children of any age in household
•   Number of children under 18 in household
•   Parental status by gender
•   Parental status
•   Race and origin
•   Race
•   Region
•   Sexual orientation
•   Social media
•   Visit social media websites daily
•   Visit social media websites weekly

Consumer Research

Q1 Which of the following dietary preferences best describes you?
Q1 Which of the following dietary preferences best describes you?, by demographics
Q2 Which of the following dietary guidelines do you currently follow? Please select all that apply.
Q2 Which of the following dietary guidelines do you currently follow? Please select all that apply., by demographics
Q3 Which of the following statements about diet apply to you? Please select all that apply.
Q3 Which of the following statements about diet apply to you? Please select all that apply., by demographics
Q4 Which of the following sources of plant-based proteins do you eat, or would you be interested in trying?
Q4 Which of the following sources of plant-based proteins do you eat, or would you be interested in trying?, by demographics
Q5 Which of the following sources of plant-based proteins do you eat, or would you be interested in trying? - NET: Any use or interest
Q5 Which of the following sources of plant-based proteins do you eat, or would you be interested in trying? - NET: Any use or interest, by
demographics
Q6 What types of foods do you eat that contain plant-based proteins? Please select all that apply.
Q6 What types of foods do you eat that contain plant-based proteins? Please select all that apply., by demographics
Q7 Which of the following statements about protein do you agree with? Please select all that apply.

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Q7 Which of the following statements about protein do you agree with? Please select all that apply., by demographics
Q8 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Q8 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?, by demographics

Demographics By Demographics

Demographics by demographics

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PLANT-BASED FOOD & DRINK - CANADA - MAY 2019                                                                                                   8

SOCIAL MEDIA CONTENT
Based on exclusive consumer research, Mintel shows you how people use the internet to interact with the brands they buy, the leading
topics of interest and how these play out across categories. We look at opinions shared on social networking sites such as Facebook
and Twitter, via online review sites and forums, and offline. This reporting allows you to see which brands and topics generate the most
conversations online and why.

Women drive dairy alternatives                                            Plant-based brands drive engagement

Discussions of dairy alternatives are dominated by women, who             Beyond Meat, which focuses on meat alternatives with meat-like
require brands to demonstrate their ethical practices.                    texture and taste, has become exceedingly popular over the last
                                                                          year and earned higher social engagement than its big name, meat-
Instagram dominates plant-based inspiration                               focused competitors.

Discussions of dairy alternatives are dominated by women, who             Consumers desire plant-based fast food
require brands to demonstrate their ethical practices.
                                                                          Consumers’ desires for plant-based options do not end with sit-
                                                                          down restaurants; they also seek to capitalize on the convenience
                                                                          of fast food chains without giving up their plant-based food and
                                                                          drink.

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RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY

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Canada Research Methodology
Mintel is an independent market analysis
                                                 research has been conducted using a            Female, 18-24                    6.9             139
company that prides itself on supplying
                                                 device agnostic platform for online surveys
objective information on a whole range of                                                       Female, 25-34                    8.8             177
                                                 (ie respondents can now take surveys from
markets and marketing issues.                                                                   Female, 35-44                    9.4             188
                                                 a smartphone in addition to a computer or
There are six main sources of research that      tablet). This methodology change may result    Female, 45-54                    8.7             174
are used in the compilation of Mintel reports:   in data differences from previous years; any
                                                                                                Female, 55-64                    8.6             172
                                                 trending should be done with caution.
• Consumer research                                                                             Female, 65+                      8.5             170
                                                 Sampling
• Social media research                                                                         Total                            100           2,000
                                                 Online Surveys
• Desk research
                                                 Lightspeed
• Trade research                                                                                Region                            %               N
                                                 Founded in 1996, Lightspeed's double           Ontario                          40.2            804
• Statistical forecasting                        opt-in U.S. online consumer panel contains     Quebec                           22.1            443
                                                 approximately 1.27 million U.S. consumers.     British Columbia                 13.3            265
Mintel reports are written and managed by        Lightspeed recruits its panelists through
                                                                                                Alberta                          10.7            214
analysts with experience in the relevant         many different sources including web
                                                                                                Saskatchewan                      3.0            61
markets.                                         advertising, permission-based databases
                                                 and partner-recruited panels. Note:            Manitoba                          4.8            95
Consumer research                                Lightspeed GMI was re-branded as               Atlantic Provinces
                                                 Lightspeed in September 2016.                  (New Brunswick,
                                                                                                Newfoundland/
Exclusive and original quantitative                                                                                               5.9            118
                                                                                                Labrador, Nova
consumer research is commissioned                Mintel sets quotas on age and gender,
                                                                                                Scotia, Prince
for almost all Mintel reports. In addition,      region, and household income. Specific         Edward Island)
qualitative research is also undertaken for      quotas for a sample of 2,000 adults aged
a large proportion of reports in the form of     18+ are shown below.                           Total*                           100            2,000
online discussion groups. Mintel invests a
considerable sum each year in consumer           Please note: these quotas are only             *Mintel does not include rural regions such as the Yukon
research, and the purchaser of a Mintel          representative of a standard General           or the Northwest Territories (including Nunavut) in its
report benefits, as the price of an individual   Population survey sample of 2,000 internet     research. Thus the consumer research data does not
report is less than the cost of the original     users aged 18+. Sample size, targets, and      reflect opinions and behaviours of the population living in
research alone. The research brings an           quotas may vary per report. Please see the     those areas.
up-to-date and unique insight into topical       Report Appendix for further details.
issues of importance.                                                                            Household income                    %             N
                                                 Age groups by                                  Less than $25,000                   14.0          281
Consumer research is conducted among a                                      %             N
                                                 gender                                         $25,000 - $49,999                   20.8          416
nationally representative sample of internet
                                                                                                $50,000 - $69,999                   15.0          300
users in Canada and is carried out by            Male, 18-24               7.9           158
                                                                                                $70,000 - $99,999                   17.8          356
Lightspeed. The results are only available in    Male, 25-34               9.1           181    $100,000 and over                   32.4          647
Mintel reports. Note that Mintel’s exclusive
research is conducted online in both English     Male, 35-44               10.4          207
and French.                                      Male, 45-54               8.1           163    Total                               100          2,000

                                                 Male, 55-64               6.1           123
Starting in July 2017, Mintel’s consumer                                                        Secondary Data Analysis
                                                 Male, 65+                 7.4           148

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In addition to exclusively commissioned        This is a statistical visualisation method for   TURF (Total Unduplicated Reach &
surveys, Mintel gathers syndicated data        picturing the associations between rows          Frequency) analysis identifies the mix
from the most respected consumer               (image, attitudes) and columns (brands,          of features, attributes, or messages that
research firms. This allows Mintel analysts    products, segments, etc.) of a two-way           will attract the largest number of unique
to form objective and cohesive analyses        contingency table. It allows us to display       respondents. It is typically used when the
of consumer attitudes and behaviour.           brand images (and/or consumer attitudes          number of features or attributes must be
Qualitative Research                           towards brands) related to each brand            or should be limited, but the goal is still to
                                               covered in this survey in a joint space that     reach the widest possible audience. By
Revelation by FocusVision                      is easy to understand. The significance of       identifying the Total Unduplicated Reach,
                                               the relationship between a brand and its         it is possible to maximize the number
FocusVision provides Mintel with qualitative   associated image is measured using the           of people who find one or more of their
bulletin board software. This allows the       Chi-square test. If two brands have similar      preferred features or attributes in the
creation of Internet-based, ‘virtual’ venues   response patterns regarding their perceived      product line. The resulting output from
where participants recruited from Mintel’s     images, they are assigned similar scores         TURF is additive, with each additional
online surveys gather and engage in            on underlying dimensions and will then           feature increasing total reach. The chart
interactive, text-based discussions led by     be displayed close to each other in the          is read from left to right, with each arrow
Mintel moderators.                             perceptual map.                                  indicating the incremental change in total
                                                                                                reach when adding a new feature. The final
Further Analysis                               CHAID analysis                                   bar represents the maximum reach of the
                                                                                                total population when all shown features are
Mintel employs numerous quantitative data      CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction         offered.
analysis techniques to enhance the value       Detection), a type of decision tree analysis,
of our consumer research. The techniques       is used to highlight key target groups in a      Social Media Research
used vary form one report to another. Below    sample by identifying which sub-groups
describes some of the more commonly used       are more likely to show a particular             To complement its exclusive consumer
techniques.                                    characteristic. This analysis subdivides the     research, Mintel tracks and analyses social
                                               sample into a series of subgroups that share     media data for inclusion in selected reports.
Repertoire Analysis                            similar characteristics towards a specific       Using Infegy’s Atlas software, Mintel ‘listens
                                               response variable and allows us to identify      in’ on online conversations across a range
This is used to create consumer groups         which combinations have the highest              of social platforms including Facebook,
based on reported behaviour or attitudes.      response rates for the target variable. It is    Twitter, consumer forums and the wider
Consumer responses of the same value           commonly used to understand and visualise        web.
(or list of values) across a list of survey    the relationship between a variable of
items are tallied into a single variable.      interest such as “interest in trying a new       Atlas provides rich consumer insight via
The repertoire variable summarises the         product” and other characteristics of the        the analysis of commentary posted publicly
number of occurrences in which the value       sample, such as demographic composition.         on the internet. The system performs
or values appear among a list of survey                                                         comprehensive and broad collection of
items. For example, a repertoire of brand      Key Driver Analysis                              data from millions of internet sources,
purchasing might produce groups of those                                                        working to ensure a faithful and extensive
that purchase 1-2 brands, 3-4 brands and 5     Key driver analysis can be a useful tool in      sampling of feedback from the widest
or more brands. Each subgroup should be        helping to prioritise focus between different    range of individuals. The dataset contains
large enough (ie N=75+) to analyse.            factors which may impact key performance         commentary posted in real time, as well as
                                               indicators (eg satisfaction, likelihood to       a substantial archive dating back through
Cluster Analysis                               switch providers, likelihood to recommend        2007.
                                               a brand, etc). Using correlations analysis
This technique assigns a set of individual     or regression analysis we can get an             Trade research
people in to groups called clusters on the     understanding of which factors or attributes
basis of one or more question responses,       of a market have the strongest association       Informal
so that respondents within the same cluster    or “link” with a positive performance on
are in some sense closer or more similar to    key performance indicators (KPIs). Hence,        Trade research is undertaken for all reports.
one another than to respondents that were      we are able to identify which factors or         This involves contacting relevant players
grouped into a different cluster.              attributes are relatively more critical in a     in the trade, not only to gain information
                                               market category compared to others and           concerning their own operations, but also
Correspondence Analysis                        ensures that often limited resources can be      to obtain explanations and views of the
                                               allocated to focusing on the main market         strategic issues pertinent to the market
                                               drivers.                                         being researched. Such is Mintel’s concern
                                                                                                with accuracy that draft copies of reports are
                                               TURF Analysis                                    sent to industry representatives, to get their

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CANADA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY                                                                                                                   12

feedback and avoid any misrepresentation         as Statistics Canada and the Canadian           forecast are collated in Mintel’s own market
of the market. These comments are                Grocer. Other information is also gathered      size database and supplemented by macro-
incorporated into reports prior to final         from store and exhibition visits across         and socio-economic data sourced from
publication.                                     Canada, as well as using other databases        organisations such as Statistics Canada,
                                                 within the Mintel Group, such as the Global     The Bank of Canada, The Conference
Formal                                           New Product Database (GNPD), which              Board of Canada and the Economist
Internally, Mintel’s analysts undertake          monitors FMCG sales promotions.                 Intelligence Unit.
extensive trade interviews with selected
key experts in the field for the majority of     All analysts have access to Mintel’s Market     Within the forecasting process, the model
reports. The purpose of these interviews         Size and Macroeconomic Databases –              searches for, and analyses relationships
is to assess key issues in the market            a database containing many areas of             between, actual market sizes and a
place in order to ensure that any research       consumer spending and retail sales as well      selection of key economic and demographic
undertaken takes these into account.             as macroeconomic and demographic factors        factors (independent variables) in order to
                                                 which impinge on consumer spending              identify those predictors having the most
In addition, using experienced external          patterns..                                      influence on the market.
researchers, trade research is undertaken
for some reports. This takes the form of         The database is used in conjunction with        Factors used in a forecast are stated in
full trade interview questionnaires and          an SPSS forecasting program which uses          the relevant report section alongside an
direct quotes are included in the report and     weighted historical correlations of market      interpretation of their role in explaining the
analysed by experts in the field. This gives a   dynamics, with independent variables, to        development in demand for the product or
valuable insight into a range of trade views     produce future spending scenarios.              market in question.
of topical issues.
                                                 Statistical Forecasting                         Qualitative insight
Desk research
                                                 Statistical modelling                           At Mintel we understand that historic data is
Mintel has an internal team of market                                                            limited in its capacity to act as the only force
analysts who monitor: government statistics,     For the majority of reports, Mintel produces    behind the future state of markets. Thus,
consumer and trade association statistics,       five-year forecasts based on an advanced        rich qualitative insights from industry experts
manufacturer sponsored reports, annual           statistical technique known as ‘multivariate    regarding past and future events that may
company reports and accounts, directories,       time series auto-regression’ using the          impact the market play a crucial role in our
press articles from around the world and         statistical software package SPSS.              post statistical modeling evaluation process.
online databases. The latter are extracted
from hundreds of publications and websites,      Historical market size data feeding into each
both Canada and overseas. All information
is cross-referenced for immediate access.

Data from other published sources are the
latest available at the time of writing the
report.

This information is supplemented by
an extensive library of Mintel’s reports
produced since 1972 globally and added
to each year by the 500+ reports which are
produced annually.

In addition to in-house sources, researchers
also occasionally use outside libraries such

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As a result, the Mintel forecast allows for      fall within these outer limits, which we call     Weather analogy
additional factors or market conditions          the best and worst case forecasts. These,
outside of the capacity of the data analysis     based on the statistically driven forecast,       To illustrate uncertainty in forecasting in
to impact the market forecast model, using       are the highest (best case) and lowest            an everyday example, let us assume the
a rigorous statistical process complemented      (worst case) market sizes the market is           following weather forecast was produced
by in-depth market knowledge and                 expected to achieve.                              based on the meteorologists’ current
expertise.                                                                                         knowledge of the previous weather condition
                                                 Over the next five years, the widening            during the last few days, atmospheric
The Mintel fan chart                             bands successively show the developments          observations, incoming weather fronts etc.
                                                 that occur within 95%, 90%, 70% and 50%
Forecasts of future economic outcomes            probability intervals. Statistical processes      Now, how accurate is this forecast and how
are always subject to uncertainty. In order      predict the central forecast to fall within the   certain can we be that the temperature on
to raise awareness amongst our clients           darker shaded area which illustrates 50%          Saturday will indeed be 15°C?
and to illustrate this uncertainty, Mintel has   probability, i.e. a 5 in 10 chance.
introduced a new way of displaying market                                                          To state that the temperature in central
size forecasts in the form of a fan-chart.       A general conclusion: Based on our current        London on Saturday will rise to exactly 15°C
                                                 knowledge of given historic market size data      is possible but one can’t be 100% certain
Next to historical market sizes and a current    as well as projections for key macro- and         about that fact.
year estimate, the fan chart illustrates the     socio-economic measures that were used to
probability of various outcomes for the          create the forecast, we can assume that in        To say the temperature on Saturday will
market value/volume over the next five           95% of the time the actual market size will       be between 13°C and 17°C is a broader
years.                                           fall within the purple shaded fan. In 5% of all   statement and much more probable.
                                                 cases this model might not be correct due
At a 95% confidence interval, we are saying      to random errors and the actual market size       In general, we can say that based on the
that 95 out of 100 times the forecast will       will fall out of these boundaries.                existing statistical model, one can be 95%
                                                                                                   certain that the temperature on Saturday
                                                                                                   will be between 13°C and 17°C, and
                                                                                                   respectively 50% certain it will be between
                                                                                                   about 14.5°C and 15.5°C. Again, only in
                                                                                                   5% of all cases this model might not be
                                                                                                   correct due to random errors and the actual
                                                                                                   temperature on Saturday will fall out of
                                                                                                   these boundaries and thus will be below
                                                                                                   13°C or above 17°C.

                                                                                                   (To learn more about uncertainty in weather
                                                                                                   forecasts visit: http://research.metoffice.gov.
                                                                                                   uk/research/nwp/ensemble/uncertainty.html)

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