THE FUTURE OF WINTER SPORTS - A DELPHI STUDY - Mastercard ...
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CSM RESEARCH REPORT
THE FUTURE OF WINTER SPORTS -
A DELPHI STUDY
WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management
Center for Sports and Management (CSM) Commissioned by
Erkrather Straße 224a
D - 40233 Düsseldorf
Mastercard
T: + 49 211 4470974-1
csm@whu.edu
www.csm.whu.edu
INTRODUCTION
Dear readers,
Skiing is more popular than ever before tive endorsement deals for men. In 2025, DELPHI STUDY WITH
and has steadily expanded its base over gender parity in ski sports organizations 13 PROJECTIONS AND
the past five years (Schmidt et al., 2019). has not yet been reached. The same holds 46 EXPERTS
The latest developments sound very true for the digitization in these organiza-
promising, but it is undeniable that the in- tions, which have made a lot of progress
dustry is also facing challenges. There- but still lack behind, despite a strong de- The desire to predict the future is part of
fore, we conducted a scientifically-based sire to catch up to digital frontrunners in human nature. In ancient Greece, the Or-
Delphi study on the future of skiing with other sports. The desire for the use of dig- acle of Delphi foretold the future and be-
the support of renowned winter sports ital ski sports simulations is limited and came one of the most famous cult sites
experts. The study takes us on a journey might need more time to grow. Five years in history (Häder, 2009). However, for our
through time and outlines skiing in the from now, there are far more skiers on the scientific “view into the crystal ball,” we
year 2025. real slopes than in the digital world and did not consult the Oracle of Delphi, but
video gaming has not yet proven to be a rather collected the opinions of leading
According to our experts, five years from critical factor in getting young people ex- minds in the skiing industry. These in-
now, despite huge environmental chal- cited about skiing. cluded FIS officials, former elite athletes,
lenges, the skiing industry has managed managing directors of ski resorts, tech-
to find technological solutions to sus- Based on our experts’ opinions, this is nology experts, eSports developers, and
tain best skiing conditions for long pe- how skiing might look like in the year media representatives.
riods of the year – both for professional 2025. However, critics may object: Why
and recreational skiers. Technology has should we care about future projections? With the help of a “real-time” version
not only helped to make resorts more cli- Why should we be concerned today with of the Delphi method (Dalkey & Helmer,
mate-friendly, but digital innovations have the development of the skiing industry in 1963), originally developed by the US mil-
also enabled an entirely new skiing expe- five years’ time? By then, the world will no itary in the 1960s for forecasting purpos-
rience. Cashless payments and seamless longer be comparable to that of today, any- es, a total of 46 proven experts evaluated
consumer interactions have become the way. Does it, therefore, make any sense to and commented on 13 projections on the
new normal, making recreational skiing think about long-term strategies? Our an- future of ski sports. Each projection was
more fun and more secure. Security has swer is yes! In the new realities of the dig- assessed in terms of probability, impact,
similarly increased for professional skiers itized society and economy, future readi- and desirability of its occurrence. For the
in 2025. With the enhancement of availa- ness is a core capability. It is important year 2025, five different scenarios were
ble technologies and an extended usage to think through future scenarios and to analyzed and are presented on the follow-
of advanced data analytics methods, ath- carefully deal with the consequences ing pages in more detail.
letes face less risk of severe injuries and, they might have. Projections help play-
thus, can deliver record-breaking per- ers in the skiing industry to identify trends This study was conducted in close coop-
formances on the slopes. Moreover, dig- early, reduce uncertainty, and increase eration with Mastercard. We would like to
ital technologies including virtual real- their competitiveness. Decision makers take this opportunity to thank Nicole Krieg
ity simulations have helped athletes to are required to anticipate future changes and Hannah Bruckner for their excellent
continuously improve their skills. At the and must learn to think counterfactually collaboration. We would also like to thank
same time, augmented reality applica- in order to shape the future of their be- the experts who participated in the study,
tions guide both professional and recre- loved sports. as well as Marcus Höfl and Andreas Berg-
ational skiers through the fastest and/or mann from MHM Majors GmbH for their
safest route, based on weather and slope Our Delphi study is designed to help ath- support in identifying and contacting rel-
conditions. letes, managers and decision makers to evant stakeholders for this study.
adapt their business model in a timely
While this all has happened in five years manner in order to build their own orga-
from now, some areas still require more nization in a sustainable and future-
focus. According to our experts, wage oriented way. Our goal is not to make an Authors
gaps between male and female athletes exact prediction, but to initiate a produc- Prof. Sascha L. Schmidt, Daniel Beider-
still exist, mainly because of more lucra- tive debate about the future of skiing. beck, Nicolas Frevel, and Harry Krüger
3
CONTENT
THE MOST IMPORTANT STUDY RESULTS 6
FOCUS ON SUSTAINABILITY? 8
How climate change will impact the ski sports ecosystem
FASTER, HIGHER, STRONGER? 12
How technologies will shape ski sports
LAST ANALOG EXPERIENCE? 16
How digitization will impact the ski sports ecosystem
GENDER PARITY ACHIEVED? 20
How gender parity will evolve
GAMING TO ATTRACT NEW TARGET GROUPS? 24
How simulation games will impact the next generation of skiers
STUDY DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 28
REFERENCES 32
ABOUT THE AUTHORS 34
4 5
THE MOST IMPORTANT
STUDY RESULTS
1 Climate focus is inevitable
and the winter sports 2 Modern technologies can
contribute significantly
industry will master this to the advancement of
existential challenge ski sports, but institutional
support is needed
P. 10 P. 14
3 Recreational skiers will
have a seamless experience 4 Despite great desire,
it will be a rocky road to
in ski resorts by 2025 – achieve gender parity
however, ski sports orga- in ski sports by 2025 –
nizations have a long way both on and off the slope
to go to become digital
frontrunners
P. 18 P. 22
5 Gaming in ski sports will
not play a vital role by 2025 –
neither in attracting the
majority of people to play,
nor in motivating young
generations to ski
P. 26
FOCUS ON
SUSTAINABILITY?
How climate change
will impact the ski sports
ecosystem
8 9
CLIMATE FOCUS IS INEVITABLE AND THE
WINTER SPORTS INDUSTRY WILL MASTER
THIS EXISTENTIAL CHALLENGE 1 “IF WINTER SPORT RESORTS ARE
NOT GOING TO DO WORK MORE
SUSTAINABLY, THEY WILL BE LEFT
CLIMATE CHANGE IS AMONG THE
MOST CURRENT TOPICS OF OUR TIME
FIG. 1.1
2025: SUSTAINABILITY HAS BECOME A CRITICAL
WITHOUT VISITORS”
AND IT INCREASINGLY AFFECTS THE PREREQUISITE FOR STAKEHOLDERS IN THE
WORLD OF SKIING. FOR SKI RESORTS, WINTER SPORTS ECOSYSTEMS TO BE SUCCESSFUL
CLIMATE CHANGE MIGHT NOT JUST
BE A PROBLEM, BUT AN EXISTENTIAL Rank
THREAT. 77%
PROBABILITY 1/13
might play a role for ski resorts, but not TECHNOLOGIES WILL PLAY skiing conditions in a climate-friend-
Glaciers are shrinking at an unprece- 4.26 by 2025. For now, sustainability is no A DECISIVE ROLE IN THE ly way seems to be technically unrealis-
dented rate and are more and more often IMPACT 1/13 more than a buzzword in their view; while FUTURE OF WINTER SPORTS tic. There is a lot of skepticism whether
closed to skiers. Ski resorts might see 4.46 it is widely debated, it does not lead to INCLUDING MAINTENANCE there will be innovations (e.g., in artificial
a significant drop in the number of days DESIRABILITY 1/13 any significant action being taken. Visi- OF GOOD SKIING CONDITIONS snow) that can make a difference at a rea-
they can operate every season. They try tors are still driving hundreds of kilome- IN A CLIMATE-FRIENDLY WAY
to fight back with an armada of snowmak- ters into the mountains with their SUVs
for a few days of skiing.
Experts of our study rated the projec-
“I WOULD LIKE
MORE SUSTAINABILITY IN ter sports tourists will demand it. Offer- Whether or not winter sport stakehold- tion that “technologies have helped to SUSTAINABILITY
“ARTIFICIAL SNOW WINTER SPORTS IS HIGHLY ing zero-emission-winter-sports might ers will act significantly more sustaina- maintain good skiing conditions in a cli-
TO BECOME A
DESIRED, BUT THE BUSINESS be a competitive advantage in the future. bly by 2025 is, of course, very difficult to mate-friendly way” with the third highest
PRODUCTION PREREQUISITE TO
IMPACT UNTIL 2025 REMAINS There is consensus among the experts predict. It is clear, though, that the issues score on all three dimensions – probabil-
HAS IMPROVED AND DEBATABLE that more sustainable ski resorts will be of climate change and sustainability will ity, impact, and desirability (see Fig. 1.2). BE SUCCESSFUL,
WILL FURTHER able to attract larger numbers of guests. not disappear. Ultimately, it will be con- While there is overall consensus about
BUT I AM NOT
However, if zero emissions are to be sumers and tourists who decide whether the importance of climate-friendliness,
IMPROVE THROUGH OVERLY OPTIMISTIC”
The debate about climate change and its reached on a larger scale, it would need sustainability will become a prerequi- our experts show different levels of opti-
TECHNOLOGY AND role in the world of skiing is not new, but to be a common goal of all stakeholders site for success in winter sports. Our mism in achievement of climate-friendly
THEREFORE HELP TO it is gaining a whole new type of momen- involved. It is conceivable that subsidies, experts agree that more sustainable winter sports with the help of technology.
tum now with increasing societal aware- licenses, and public permits will be more winter sports would be highly desirable sonable cost. However, other experts are
MAINTAIN GOOD
ness. Therefore, we projected for 2025 and more dependent on sustainability ef- (highest desirability amongst all projec- Some of our experts see an inherent con- much more optimistic. They argue that
SKIING CONDITIONS that “Sustainability has become a critical forts. Winter sports officials among our tions, see Fig. 1.1), but leave open whether tradiction between winter sports and technology has already helped the ski-
IN A MORE CLIMATE- prerequisite for stakeholders in the win- group of experts see the need to take the the affected stakeholders are willing to climate-friendliness. For example, over- ing industry to become significantly more
ter sports ecosystems to be successful.” topic seriously and to develop a viable ac- bear the costs and live with the conse- tourism and artificial snow are inherent- energy efficient, for example, in terms of
FRIENDLY WAY” On the one hand, climate change has be- tion plan (see Fig. 1.1). quences. ly bad for our climate. Maintaining good snow-grooming equipment or snowmak-
come tangible, and one group of experts ing machines. In their view, advanced
argued that all stakeholders will need On the other hand, despite the reality technologies as well as entirely new tech-
ing machines that paint the hills white. to act sustainably if they want to stay in of climate change, another group of ex- nical solutions will help preserve good
This reliance on snowmakers leads to two business. Basically, it will no longer be a perts argued that sustainability won’t skiing conditions.
questions: When will ski resorts get too choice of whether be more sustainable, be a prerequisite for success in winter
warm for snowmaking machines? And will but a prerequisite for success as win- sports. They believe that climate change Thus, there seems to be consensus that
this reliance be sustainable in the future? FIG. 1.2 good skiing conditions will be main-
Sustainability is certainly a hot topic for 2025: TECHNOLOGIES HAVE HELPED tained in a more and more climate-friend-
the foreseeable future and a major point TO MAINTAIN GOOD SKIING CONDITIONS ly way in the future. It is questionable
of criticism that ski resorts face. However,
does this mean that ski resorts have no “WE NEED TO TAKE IN A CLIMATE-FRIENDLY WAY though whether we will ever see true cli-
mate-friendliness – i.e., zero emissions –
SUSTAINABILITY SERIOUSLY
choice but to become more sustainable in the world of skiing. This would clearly
Rank
in the future? Might they withstand the 65% require significant investment, radical re-
PROBABILITY 3/13
AND ALSO PUT REQUIREMENTS
growing pressure from consumers and thinking, and more climate-friendly ways
tourists for climate-friendly solutions? 3.82 of snow-making. But, many stakeholders
IMPACT 3/13
INTO PLACE”
Or might sustainability become a pre- in the winter sports industry truly care
requisite for all stakeholders in the winter 4.35 about nature and they will leverage tech-
sports ecosystem to be successful? DESIRABILITY 3/13 nology for viable solutions.
10 11
FASTER, HIGHER,
STRONGER?
How technologies
will shape ski sports
12 13
MODERN TECHNOLOGIES CAN CONTRIBUTE High-tech hardware such as protheses
could allow disabled and non-disabled ath-
HIGH-END DIGITAL SIMULATIONS
WILL COMPLEMENT, BUT NOT
of virtual reality, for example, to prepare
athletes for (difficult) slopes. The notion
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF SKI SPORTS, REVOLUTIONIZE, TALENT DE-
2
letes to compete at eye level. Modern tech- of training anywhere and anytime seems
VELOPMENT IN SKIING BY 2025
BUT INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT IS NEEDED nologies could also allow for competition
among non-disabled athletes across age
to be a desirable goal. Skiing simulations
could significantly increase athletes’
groups and gender. Similarly, they could maximal training hours by making train-
allow amateur sportsmen to compete with The question whether “high-end digital ing independent from snow and weather
elite athletes, which could have many be- simulations of ski races for profession- conditions. It would simplify training and
nefits including fan engagement and wider al athletes have revolutionized talent de- reduce costs (e.g., travel) at the same
THE IMPACT THAT TECHNOLOGIES FIG. 2.1 access to sports. Imagine amateurs with velopment and training for elite skiing” led time. But benefits do not only arise for
HAVE HAD ON THE WORLD OF SPORTS 2025: TECHNOLOGIES HAVE INCREASED ATHLETES’ SAFETY exoskeletons racing against elite downhill to a lot of debate among our experts (see elite athletes. Ski schools could use sim-
IS VAST AND MIGHT BECOME MORE AND SPORTIVE PERFORMANCE skiers without supportive aids. Technolo- Fig. 2.3) and they did not reach consen- ulations to educate and train both first-
PRONOUNCED IN THE FUTURE. EXAM- gies could not only help to include more in- sus. Many of the experts see strong ad- time and more advanced skiers. Similarly,
PLES OF IMPACTFUL APPLICATION OF Rank
dividual athletes, they could also give na- vantages of ski race simulations. They ar- it could help older skiers, in particular, to
TECHNOLOGY IN SPORTS ARE NU- 76% tional teams access to sports that would gue that simulations might significantly maintain the physical condition they need
PROBABILITY 2/13
MEROUS RANGING FROM SPRINTING, usually be out of reach due to weather improve the quantity and quality of feed- for skiing into old age.
JAVELIN AND THE POLE VAULT (HAAKE, 4.02 conditions, for example. Access could be back athletes can receive about their
2009), CYCLING, AND SWIMMING, IMPACT 2/13 facilitated by training in virtual environ- technical and physical skills that, in turn, It is, however, also worth mentioning that
TO TEAM SPORTS SUCH AS FOOTBALL 4.46 ments or by production of artificial snow. can lead to better performance and im- an opposing group of experts considers
AND BASKETBALL (FOSTER ET AL., DESIRABILITY 1/13 Participation of more nations in ski world proved safety (e.g., injury prevention). these simulations significantly less prob-
2012; SCHMIDT & EBERHARD, 2016). cups would make them more inclusive and This could become particularly impor- able and desirable. They see digital ap-
increase interest around the world. tant given advancements in sensor tech- plications as a potential support in some
In most sports, the rate of improvement nology. For performance analysis (as well areas of training at best, arguing that
sportive performance has plateaued given as tracking over time) in general, simu- the impact for elite athletes will be mar-
the natural limits of human ability. Most Delphi experts strongly believe in the ef- provements, particularly in terms of better “FEEDBACK ON METABOLISM lations could become a key component. ginal compared to real-life training and
performance improvements in the future fect and benefit that technology will have material. Our experts agree that the level AND TECHNIQUE WILL BE Simulations could also aid the identifica- feedback coaching. In any case, a great
will be the consequence of technological on both safety and performance. For ath- of physical ability has reached its relative INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT tion and development of talent. The ex- user experience will be indispensable for
innovation and application (Balmer et al., letes’ safety, we have already seen signifi- maximum so the next level of performance perts also see great potential in the use adaption of simulations.
TO MAKE SURE ATHLETES
2011; Dyer, 2015). For example, researchers cant improvements over the past few dec- improvement will come from technolo-
found that only half of the progress in terms gy. For example, digital solutions will allow WILL BE FIT FOR
of world records in speed skating stems athletes to train better and (mentally) pre- THE DESIRED ACTIVITY.
from actual athletic improvement, while “AS THE SPORT IS UNIQUE pare for training and competitions. Artifi- THIS IS TO AVOID INJURIES
the other half results from technological cial intelligence could be used to improve AND TO MAKE SURE FIG. 2.2
IN TERMS OF OUTDOOR
advancements (de Koning, 2010). Technol- the interplay of human ability and technol- 2025: SKI WORLD CUPS HAVE BECOME INCLUSIVE FOR ATHLETES
FACTORS (E.G., SNOW, THE BEST POSSIBLE
ogy has also massively increased athletes’ ogy. As in any industry, the pace of change ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH MODERN TECHNOLOGIES
ICE), THE DIGITAL SIMULA- PREPARATION WILL TAKE
safety over the past few decades and we and development will largely depend on
expect to see continued improvements in TIONS’ BENEFITS MIGHT willingness to invest in technologies. PLACE ON EVERY LEVEL
Rank
(ELITE TO TOURIST)” 43%
the future. The sports industry might take BE MARGINAL” PROBABILITY 9/13
a leading role in the introduction of “yet un-
foreseen digital technologies” (Merkel et al., TECHNOLOGIES ALONE WILL 2.78
2016). Winter sports are no different and we ades with the FIS Injury Surveillance and NOT BE ENOUGH TO FURTHER However, our study results suggest that IMPACT 10/13
have seen and will continue to see similar Prevention System, protective wear, and INCREASE INCLUSIVENESS there could be several reasons why tech- 3.12
developments in the future. inflatable airbags, to name a few. At the IN SKI SPORTS nology is unlikely to make ski world cups DESIRABILITY 9/13
same time, there is still significant room more inclusive. Arguments include, for
for improvement, particularly in areas like example, the different preconditions
TECHNOLOGIES WILL FURTHER material, analytic tools, and physical train- Will we see ski world cups where all ath- of disabled and non-disabled athletes,
INCREASE SAFETY AND ing (e.g., with neurological feedback). One letes, independent of gender, age or dis- which would never allow for a fair com-
PERFORMANCE IN WINTER of the most promising areas, according to ability, compete against each other in the petition given the lack of comparability. FIG. 2.3
SPORTS – BOTH FOR PROFES- our experts, is the prevention of injuries same competition? This was the under- Experts supporting this line of argumen- 2025: HIGH-END DIGITAL SIMULATIONS OF SKI RACES FOR
SIONAL ATHLETES AND using technology and analytics. The ever- lying question of our future projection tation claim that competition between PROFESSIONAL ATHLETES HAVE REVOLUTIONIZED TALENT
RECREATIONAL SKIERS improving quality of data allows athletes that, “Ski world cups have become inclu- athletes with equal preconditions is one DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING FOR ELITE SKIING
and their coaches to take preventive ac- sive for athletes across the board through of the most important aspects of sports;
tions and adapt behaviors where needed. modern technologies.” The answer, ac- the preconditions keep sports fair and in-
Rank
The projection that “technologies have Similarly, advanced analytics help to sim- cording to our experts, is: unlikely. They teresting for spectators. A key problem 48%
PROBABILITY 8/13
increased athletes’ safety and sportive ulate slopes and potential crashes to im- believe that the probability and impact for full inclusiveness in ski world cups will
performance,” yielded the second high- prove slopes and reduce risk. of this scenario to be relatively low (see remain; skiing is only performed in a few 3.09
est estimated probability, and impact and Fig. 2.2). Interestingly, they also consider countries and is, even with the help of vir- IMPACT 7/13
highest desirability of all projections in our When it comes to performance, we have it not to be particularly desirable, which tual reality technology, unlikely to achieve 3.00
study (see Fig. 2.1). This suggests that our also seen remarkable technological im- might be counterintuitive. a global presence. DESIRABILITY 10/13
14 15
LAST ANALOG
EXPERIENCE?
How digitization will impact
the ski sports ecosystem
16 17
RECREATIONAL SKIERS WILL HAVE A SEAMLESS
EXPERIENCE IN SKI RESORTS BY 2025 –
HOWEVER, SKI SPORTS ORGANIZATIONS HAVE A LONG
WAY TO GO TO BECOME DIGITAL FRONTRUNNERS 3 “ESPECIALLY THE FOREFRONT OF RESORTS,
BEING MORE COURAGEOUS AND INNOVATIVE, WILL
MAKE FULL USE OF DIGITAL TICKETING AND
GEO-LOCATION TRACKING FOR INCREASED EXPERIENCE.
TECHNOLOGY IS NOT ONLY KEY FIG. 3.1 THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR SECURITY, PURCHASE
FOR PROFESSIONAL ATHLETES TO 2025: MOST SKIING RESORTS HAVE BECOME CASHLESS
IMPROVE THEIR PERFORMANCE, MAKING THEM MORE SECURE PROCESS OF FOOD AND BEVERAGES, AS WELL
BUT IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO
IMPROVE THE EXPERIENCE FOR 65%
Rank AS MERCHANDISING AND TICKETING”
PROBABILITY 4/13
RECREATIONAL SKIERS.
3.32
Today, nearly three out of four recrea- IMPACT 5/13
tional skiers are equipped with weara- 3.77
bles (ISPO, 2017). And while skiers with DESIRABILITY 5/13 ed, which makes a conversion towards a to close the gap to digital frontrunners is tended their lead in terms of digital capa-
action cameras are a common picture seamless process along the entire cus- high (see Fig. 3.3). In fact, this is the most bilities. It is not too late, but experts agree
on the slopes, ski masks that integrate tomer journey more difficult. Second, desired projection of those unlikely to oc- that ski sports organizations must fo-
Wi-Fi, GPS, and Bluetooth features dis- many experts agree that the resorts at cur by 2025. cus on digital development and applica-
playing skiers’ performance on the snow, the forefront will achieve the seamless tion of new technology to catch up. This
using Augmented Reality, are rather new tions). While there are already ski resorts customer centricity and increase con- experience by 2025, but many resorts will Consequently, the urgency for ski sports is not only important to ensure the rele-
(Fedosov et al., 2016). The experience off where most skiers do not need cash in venience to retain existing and attract lag behind—taking much longer than until organizations to digitize is salient, as re- vance of skiing in the future, but also to
the slope is similarly subject to change their pockets, there is some skepticism new winter sports enthusiasts. Our ex- 2025 to become digitized. flected in our experts’ discussion. Other attract young talent to work in the winter
from modern technologies. Since digi- by our experts about the speed of distri- perts imagine winter vacations without sports organizations appear to have ex- sports sector.
tization allows for a more seamless ex- bution. Adoption rates in smaller ski re- queues as skiers are directed to empty
perience in every part of our life, winter sorts might be lower and the accessibil- lifts via apps or digital signals and a con- DIGITIZATION OF SKI
sports fans also expect the highest de- ity of cashless technologies for elderly venient process of booking travel, rent- SPORTS ORGANIZATIONS
gree of convenience when visiting a ski resort visitors could be a hurdle. ing skis, and buying lift passes with just WILL LAG BEHIND DIGITAL
event or when hitting the slopes. But how a few clicks based on customer prefer- FRONTRUNNERS, DESPITE FIG. 3.2
will the ski sports ecosystem evolve? Next to a cashless and more secure ski- ences. This would offer tremendous up- A STRONG DESIRABILITY 2025: THE SKI SPORT ECOSYSTEM OFFERS A SEAMLESS EXPERIENCE
ing environment, experts also assessed side potential for ski resorts since such TO CATCH UP FOR RECREATIONAL VISITORS THROUGH DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES
the projection that the “ski sports eco- a seamless experience would allow cus-
MOST SKI RESORTS WILL system offers a seamless experience tomers to spend their time on the key ac-
Rank
BECOME COMPLETELY for recreational visitors through digital tivity: skiing. Regarding the projection that “ski sports 62%
PROBABILITY 5/13
CASHLESS BY 2025, technologies” by 2025. This projection organizations have become digital front-
OFFERING A SEAMLESS was also given high probability (62%) and While the impact of such a projection runners compared to other sports or- 3.42
EXPERIENCE FOR VISITORS solid impact (rank 4 out of 13 projections) seems obvious, there are two main ob- ganizations” by 2025, there is skepti- IMPACT 4/13
ratings (see Fig. 3.2). According to our stacles to this development: First, the ski cism that this projection will become 3.52
experts, ski resorts will further improve sports ecosystem is relatively fragment- reality. At the same time, the desirability DESIRABILITY 8/13
The projection that “most ski resorts
have become cashless making them
more secure” was assessed by our ex-
perts to have a stable probability of 65%
(see Fig. 3.1). Isolating the responses of “I WOULD PREFER THE MOUNTAINS “FOR ME THERE FIG. 3.3
the technology experts within our panel, 2025: SKI SPORTS ORGANIZATIONS HAVE BECOME DIGITAL
however, reveals that this group agreed TO REMAIN DIGITAL AND IS NO DOUBT FRONTRUNNERS COMPARED TO OTHER SPORTS ORGANIZATIONS
with 77% probability, making it the high- TECH FREE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE THAT THE SKIING
est ranked projection within this sam-
ple of study participants. This fact bol- TO REMAIN ITS FLAIR. BUT FROM RESORTS WILL 39%
Rank
PROBABILITY 10/13
sters confidence in the likelihood of ski A BUSINESS-PERSPECTIVE HAVE BECOME
resorts to become cashless and more 3.00
secure by 2025. Experts also assess the THIS IS OF HIGH DESIRABILITY” CASHLESS IN 2025” IMPACT 8/13
impact and desirability of this projec- 3.75
tion relatively high (rank 5 of all projec- DESIRABILITY 6/13
18 19GENDER PARITY
ACHIEVED?
How gender parity
will evolve
20 21DESPITE GREAT DESIRE, IT WILL BE A ROCKY ROAD in terms of probability, impact, and desir-
ability. However, this topic still appears to
FIG. 4.3
2025: SKI SPORTS ORGANIZATIONS HAVE ENTERED A PROMISING WAY
TO ACHIEVE GENDER PARITY IN SKI SPORTS BY 2025 –
4
polarize, since the experts surveyed did TO ACHIEVE GENDER PARITY IN MANAGEMENT POSITIONS
not reach consensus on this projection.
BOTH ON AND OFF THE SLOPE Rank
Key arguments by experts include both 53%
PROBABILITY 7/13
sportive and economic reasoning. While
the danger for athletes could be minimized 3.18
by future technology, some experts simply IMPACT 6/13
GENDER INEQUALITY HAS BEEN sponsoring income; and this will contin- “50% OF SKIER believe that “the Streif as a stand-alone 3.89
AMONG THE IMPORTANT SOCIAL ue to hold true in the future. They argue event for men is a value” and that any DESIRABILITY 4/13
ISSUES FOR DECADES. IN 2017, MORE that “the interest on male skiing races”
CONSUMERS ARE changes would take away some of its DNA.
THAN 70% OF THE GLOBAL POPU- and “the money you can earn on the male FEMALE AND WE Nevertheless, there are some experts who
LATION BELIEVED THAT THERE WAS sport” will remain higher than for female SEE IN THE INDUSTRY see a trend towards less segmentation in
STILL INEQUALITY BETWEEN WOMEN races. On the other hand, there will al- male and female competition and the po-
AND MEN IN TERMS OF SOCIAL, ways be top female athletes who earn
ALREADY TODAY tential to have a female slalom race in Kitz- Regarding the probability of occurrence, not evident that ski sports organizations
POLITICAL OR ECONOMIC RIGHTS more money than most male competitors. A SIGNIFICANT bühel. However, it seems clear from the there are two main obstacles according will have reached gender parity by 2025,
(STATISTA, 2017). Some experts argue that “public pres- INCREASE OF FEMALE expert perspective, that there will be no to our Delphi experts. First, there is “not the high desirability might help to over-
sure” and rejuvenation in ski sports organ- women downhill race at the “male bastion” enough interest by women” and there “are come obstacles and make positive steps
This inequality is also reflected in winter izations could help to reduce this gap.
MANAGEMENT Hahnenkamm by 2025. not many women, who want to engage towards gender parity off the slope.
sports, though there has been progress. POSITIONS” themselves in the organizations.” Second,
At 43%, the 2018 Winter Olympics in Next to endorsement deals, there are also some experts argue, that there is a cultur-
Pyeongchang had the highest female special events exclusive to men such as GENDER PARITY IN MANAGE- al shift required to achieve gender parity in Leana Dobler during the
share in history, but there were still disci- the Hahnenkamm race that account for probability, impact, and desirability, sug- MENT POSITIONS IN SKI management positions as some “ski sport Giant slalom of Longines Future
plines that remained men’s only, such as a difference in payment. Experts of our gesting that experts neither see a need, SPORTS ORGANIZATIONS IS organizations, especially small and lo- Hahnenkamm Champions
Nordic combined (The Guardian, 2018). A Delphi study do not believe that “women nor a wish for women to compete in this STRONGLY DESIRED cal ones, are still very traditional” and the at the Streif.
similar picture emerges in professional racing will have been brought back to skiing event (see Figure 4.2). Interesting- “governance [is] old-fashioned.” While it is ▼
alpine ski sports. For races where men the Hahnenkamm” by 2025. This projec- ly, female participants have even less ap-
and women participate, prize money is tion yielded the second lowest estimated petite for this projection, rating it lowest The projection that “ski sports organi-
equal. However, over the course of a sea- zations have entered a promising way to
son the amount of prize money for men achieve gender parity in management
is still higher, largely because women do positions” by 2025, revealed a large dis-
not participate in some of the most pres- crepancy between reality and wishful
tigious and rewarded races. For example, FIG. 4.1 thinking. While experts rated the desir-
women do not participate in the Hahnen- 2025: THE WAGE GAP BETWEEN PROFESSIONAL MALE
kamm race in Kitzbühel, where in 2019 the AND FEMALE SKIING ATHLETES HAS BEEN CLOSED
“prize money was almost twice as high […] “SKI SPORT
as at comparable events in the alpine ski-
55%
Rank ORGANIZATIONS,
ing World Cup” (FIS, 2019). The question
is: How will gender parity evolve?
PROBABILITY 6/13 ESPECIALLY SMALL
3.00 AND LOCAL ONES,
IMPACT 8/13
ARE STILL VERY
ON THE SLOPE, WAGE GAPS 3.66
BETWEEN MALE AND FEMALE DESIRABILITY 7/13 TRADITIONAL AND
ATHLETES COULD BECOME NEED FURTHER
SMALLER, BUT SPONSORSHIPS CULTURAL
AND SPECIAL EVENTS WILL
STILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE DEVELOPMENT”
FIG. 4.2
2025: WOMEN RACING HAS BEEN BROUGHT
With a probability of 55%, experts in our BACK TO THE HAHNENKAMM ability as high (rank 4 of all projections),
study do not reveal confidence in the as- the probability of occurrence was only as-
sumption that “the wage gap between sessed at 53%, rank 7 (see Figure 4.3).
Rank
professional male and female skiing ath- 31% This picture holds true for all group of ex-
PROBABILITY 12/13
letes has been closed” by 2025 (see Fig- perts, and is even more distinct amongst
ure 4.1). Most experts stated that, already 2.33 female study participants, who rank the
today, prize money is the same for events IMPACT 12/13 desirability of this projection second, but
where male and female athletes partici- 2.51 their confidence in its probability is low at
pate. The difference comes instead from DESIRABILITY 12/13 only 56%, rank 9 within this group.
22 23GAMING TO ATTRACT
NEW TARGET GROUPS?
How simulation games
will impact the next generation
of skiers
24 25GAMING IN SKI SPORTS WILL NOT PLAY A VITAL
ROLE BY 2025 – NEITHER IN ATTRACTING THE
MAJORITY OF PEOPLE TO PLAY, NOR IN MOTIVATING
YOUNG GENERATIONS TO SKI 5
IN TODAY’S OMNIPRESENT DISCUS-
SION OF DIGITIZATION THERE IS ONE
PHENOMENON NOT TO BE MISSED: “I DON’T BELIEVE THAT
ESPORTS. EVERYONE TALKS ABOUT
IT NOWADAYS, AND EVEN IF WE GAMING WILL BE A RELEVANT
ARE NOT INTERESTED IN ESPORTS,
WE ARE SOMEHOW ATTACHED TO ACCESS THAT BRINGS
DIGITAL GAMING.
PEOPLE INTO THE SNOW”
According to latest estimates, there are
2.5 billion video gamers on the globe
(Statista, 2019a); this number takes into
account regular and casual gamers – gaming. While there are only a few hun- gaming have become an integral part of
even those who just play on their smart- dred professionals who can make a living our society and social life. But how does
phones every now and then. However, from playing videogames, the global au- this relate to ski sports?
it is important to differentiate between dience for eSports has already exceeded
gaming and eSports. In contrast to gam- 450 million people (Newzoo, 2019). These First of all, digital sports simulations are
ing, eSports only comprises competitive numbers show that both eSports and typically not amongst the most popular
eSports titles globally. Playing compet-
itively in digital tournaments is some-
thing that is established in football with
the simulation game FIFA or Pro Evolu- ▲
FIG. 5.1
2025: MORE PEOPLE PLAY DIGITAL SKI RACING SIMULATIONS
tion Soccer. However, there are far more
popular games like League of Legends,
Children during the starting
numbers draw for the Men’s super-G “THE ACTIVE PART IN THE
THAN ACTIVELY PARTICIPATE IN SKIING Dota 2, or Counterstrike (Nielsen, 2019).
As of now, digital ski sports simulations
of FIS Ski Alpine World Cup at the
Streif in Kitzbühel.
NATURE IS THE MOST
23%
Rank
are focusing rather on casual gaming
than eSports.
IMPORTANT EXPERIENCE
13/13
PROBABILITY
sus in terms of probability of occurrence, FOR SKIING”
2.16 but also in terms of desirability. Experts
IMPACT 13/13 THE OUTDOOR SKIING largely agreed that they would not like to
2.00 ADVENTURE WILL NOT see “more people play digital ski racing
DESIRABILITY 13/13 BE SUBSTITUTED BY VIDEO simulations than actively participating in
GAMING BY 2025 skiing.” Hence, experts expect skiing to the assumption that “digital ski racing perts. Digital ski racing simulations might
remain an outdoor activity in the future simulations have increased the attrac- not have a stunning effect on the future
and will not be substituted by a digital ex- tiveness of winter sports in young tar- of skiing, but there are still advocates for
Although gaming is a popular leisure ac- perience. get groups” by 2025 was also assessed more ski gaming offerings amongst the
FIG. 5.2 tivity, experts do not expect the num- with a probability of only 35% by the ex- experts surveyed.
2025: DIGITAL SKI RACING SIMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED THE ber of ski sports gamers to exceed the perts of this study (see Fig. 5.2). Even
ATTRACTIVENESS OF WINTER SPORTS IN YOUNG TARGET GROUPS number of actual skiers worldwide (see ACCORDING TO EXPERTS, though it is a slightly more desirable to
Fig. 5.1). This perception is consistently GAMING WILL NOT reach the next generation of skiers with
Rank
shared across experts of all age groups. BRING YOUNG PEOPLE digital simulations, the overall impact of
35% Given that there are already more than INTO THE SNOW gaming was rated low (see Fig. 5.2). Ex-
PROBABILITY 11/13
110 million skiers in the 15 largest skiing perts still see parents as the main factor
2.46 nations and more than 150 million winter to motivate young people to ski. However,
IMPACT 11/13 sports enthusiasts around the globe, this While skiing might not be substituted dig- the opportunity of reaching a broader au-
2.58 assessment sounds reasonable (Sta- itally, our experts can imagine real skiing dience, e.g., Chinese skiers, with mobile
DESIRABILITY 11/13 tista, 2019b). There is not only consen- to be complimented by video gaming. But games was also appreciated by some ex-
26 27STUDY DESIGN
AND METHODOLOGY
28 29Our process for this study was as follows: ing of Delphi panels is recommended be- mulation process. Only six projections dis-
Future drivers of ski sports were identi- cause different views from different ex- play a coefficient of variance of more than
DATA SOURCE OF ANALYSIS: fied through input from experts and via
desk research of largely internet-based
pert groups enhance the validity of Delphi
studies (Yaniv, 2011). Next, we identified
0.5, which denotes consensus according
to the relevant literature (von der Gracht &
REAL-TIME DELPHI sources. To structure the insights, all driv- potential experts for each category. The Darkow, 2010). As intended, the balance of
ers were assigned to one of the three resultant list of 248 candidates was short- our expert panel apparently triggered con-
overarching themes: (i) technology and ened to 162 experts based on several cri- troversial discussion.
digitization, (ii) sports and climate, and teria (e.g. years of experience, age, mix
(iii) inclusiveness in ski sports. For every of backgrounds). The 162 candidates re-
THE PRESENT STUDY WAS CONDUC- FIG. 6.1 theme, 3-6 projections were formulated ceived a written invitation including a per-
TED ON BEHALF OF MASTERCARD DELPHI-STUDY SHOULD TACKLE THREE MAJOR TOPIC AREAS that best condensed the respective driv- sonalized link to our online Delphi portal.
AND IS BASED ON THE DELPHI FOR PROJECTIONS IN 2025 ers. This process ensured a broad spec- Finally, 46 experts from 41 organizations FIG. 6.4
METHOD THAT WAS INVENTED BY trum of projections and concentration on (see Fig. 6.4) participated in our Delphi DEMOGRAPHICS OVERVIEW N=46
THE U.S. RAND CORPORATION. THE key developments to minimize participant survey. This equals a remarkable partici-
DELPHI TECHNIQUE IS A SCIENTIF- A TECHNOLOGY
& DIGITALIZATION B SPORTS
& CLIMATE C INCLUSIVENESS
IN SKI SPORTS dropout rates (Nowack et al., 2011; Hung et pation rate of 28.4%. Thus, the panel size COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
ICALLY ESTABLISHED RESEARCH al., 2008). The time horizon of the study, was in line with comparable Delphi studies OF EXPERTS
METHOD THAT SOLICITS OPINIONS 1 The ski sport ecosystem offers 7 Technologies have 10 Ski world cups have
by 2025, was based on relevant compa- (Merkel et al., 2016).
a seamless experience for increased athletes’ become inclusive
FROM A PANEL OF EXPERTS IN AN recreational visitors through safety and sportive for athletes across rable Delphi studies that allow a foresee-
digital technologies Fig. 3.2 performance Fig. 2.1 the board through
ITERATIVE SURVEY PROCESS. modern technologies able time period (von der Gracht & Darkow, ANDORRA AUSTRIA DENMARK
2 Ski sports organizations have 8 Sustainability has Fig. 2.2 2010). A five-year projection is not seen as EXECUTION OF THE SURVEY
become digital frontrunners become a critical
As part of the method, selected experts ‘looking too far into the future’, which fos- AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
compared to other sports prerequisite for 11 Women racing has
evaluate preformulated future theses, organizations Fig. 3.3 stakeholders in the been brought back ters expert discussion on changes that FRANCE GERMANY GREECE
winter sports eco- to the Hahnenkamm
so-called projections, according to their systems to be Fig. 4.2
seem realistic in the near to mid-term.
3 Most skiing resorts have be-
probability of “occurrence” (in percent), come cashless making them successful Fig. 1.1 The Delphi survey was conducted over a
as well as their “impact” and their “de- more secure Fig. 3.1 12 The wage gap bet-
three-week period and was administered ITALY SWEDEN SWITZERLAND
9 Technologies have ween professional
sirability” on a Likert scale from 1 (very 4 More people play digital ski helped to maintain male and female SELECTION via the internet using “Surveylet” by Cal-
low) to 5 (very high). The experts support racing simulations than good skiing condi- skiing athletes has OF EXPERTS ibrum (http://calibrum.com/), an online
actively participate in skiing tions in a climate- been closed Fig. 4.1 UNITED USA
their quantitative evaluations with option- Fig. 5.1 friendly way Fig. 1.2 survey tool specifically designed to facili-
KINGDOM
al comments and arguments. Upon com- 13 Ski sports organiz- tate the Delphi research method. We ana-
5 Digital ski racing simulations ations have entered
pletion of their own evaluation, experts have increased the attractive- a promising way to By definition, Delphi panels are not sta- lyzed the 1,794 quantitative evaluations
get access to the evaluations of the entire ness of winter sports in young achieve gender parity tistically representative; therefore, an im- provided by our 46 experts for 13 projec-
target groups Fig. 5.2 in management AGE
panel. Moreover, they are provided with positions Fig. 4.3 proper expert selection is one of the most tions on three dimensions. The projections
7
summary statistics such as the median 6 High-end digital simulations serious validity threats to Delphi studies were then clustered into five scenarios 25-34
of ski races for professional
or the level of consensus/agreement by athletes have revolutionized (Creswell, 2003). In our study, the expert based on their content-related proximity. 11
projection. Experts may choose to main- talent development and trai- selection was conducted in a multi-stage Additionally, 429 written arguments were 35-44
ning for elite skiing Fig. 2.3
tain or modify their evaluations in subse- process similar to Okoli and Pawlowski analyzed. While the future projections have 15
45-54
quent iterations (von der Gracht, 2012). (2004). First, categories were defined to a mean probability of occurrence between
This study used a so-called “Real-time ensure a balance between the expert 23% and 77%, the impact of 10 of the 13 12
55-64
Delphi,” which is an advanced form of the groups: (i) sports (tech) executives, (ii) ath- projections is rated as medium or high (i.e.,
Delphi technique where experts can im- letes and ski sports officials, (iii) media at least a score of 2.5 on a 5-point Likert 1
>64
mediately compare their responses to step 1, the future projections were formu- FORMULATION OF representatives and academics, and (iv) scale). This underscores their relevance
those of other participants and change lated. In step 2, the actual Delphi survey FUTURE PROJECTIONS resort managers (see Fig. 6.3). Balanc- and confirms the accuracy of the prefor-
their opinion as often as they like. This was conducted. In step 3, the survey re-
GENDER
scientifically valid procedure reduces sults were aggregated and analyzed by
the dropout rate (Gnatzy et al., 2011). The means of descriptive statistics and cod- The relevant literature (e.g., Gausemeier 40
MALE
present Delphi study was conducted in ing of the qualitative arguments to derive et al., 1996) recommends the derivation of FIG. 6.3
6
three steps as depicted by Figure 6.2. In scenarios. Delphi projections from several sources. WITH 46 EXPERTS THE DELPHI-STUDY HAS A SOLID OPINION BASE – FEMALE
ORIGIN, AGE AND BACKGROUND ARE WELL DISTRIBUTED – GENDER WITH
HIGH PROPORTION OF MEN, REPRESENTING INDUSTRY AVERAGE
BACKGROUND
FIG. 6.2
PROCESS OF THE DELPHI STUDY
SPORTS (TECH) 16
EXECUTIVES
(BASED ON VON DER GRACHT & DARKOW, 2010)
ATHLETES
AND SKI SPORTS 13
OFFICIALS
FORMULATION OF REAL-TIME EXECUTION OF DEVELOPMENT OF
MEDIA REPRE-
DELPHI PROJECTIONS DELPHI SURVEY FUTURE SCENARIOS
SENTATIVES
10
AND ACADEMICS
DESK EXPERT DELOPMENT OF REVIEW AND ANALYSIS SCENARIO PLAUSIBILITY
RESEARCH INPUT PROJECTIONS PRETESTING OF RESULTS FORMULATION CHECKS RESORT 7
MANAGERS
30 31REFERENCES
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32 33ABOUT THE
AUTHORS
PROF. DR. SASCHA L. SCHMIDT
Sascha L. Schmidt is a professor, chair versity in Boston/USA. The “Future of
holder and director of the Center for Sports” is one of Sascha’s key research
Sports and Management (CSM) at WHU - areas. Prior to his academic career, he
Otto Beisheim School of Management in worked as a strategy consultant for Mc-
Dusseldorf/Germany. At the same time Kinsey & Company and he has been an
he is the academic director of “SPOAC - entrepreneur.
Sports Business Academy by WHU” and
affiliate professor at the Laboratory for @ProfSLS
Innovation Science (LISH) at Harvard Uni- sascha.schmidt@whu.edu
DANIEL BEIDERBECK
Daniel Beiderbeck is a PhD student at doctorate, he worked for two years as a
the Center for Sports and Management strategy consultant at McKinsey & Com-
(CSM)at WHU - Otto Beisheim School of pany, where he supported numerous dig-
Management and Program Manager at ital transformation projects in various in-
the SPOAC. Daniel‘s research focuses on dustries.
Delphi studies to investigate future sce-
narios for football and eSport. Prior to his daniel.beiderbeck@whu.edu
NICOLAS FREVEL
Nicolas Frevel is a PhD student at the analyses. His focus is on technologies in
Center for Sports and Management (CSM) sport. Before his doctorate, he worked as
at WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Man- a consultant at McKinsey & Company in
agement. He conducts research on top- various industries and functions.
ics in the field of „The Future of Sports“
with the help of Delphi-based scenario nicolas.frevel@whu.edu
HARRY KRÜGER
Harry Krüger is a doctoral student at the ant for McKinsey & Company in various
Center for Sports and Management (CSM) industries though his projects largely fo-
at WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Man- cused on digitization, automation, and
agement. As part of his research, Harry machine learning.
does research on the sports consump-
tions behavior of young generations. Be-
fore his doctorate, he worked as a consult- harry.krueger@whu.edu
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